Influence of birth rates and transmission rates on the global seasonality of rotavirus incidence

Baseline burden of rotavirus disease in Sudan to monitor the impact of vaccination

BACKGROUND

In 2011, Sudan became the first low-income country in Africa to introduce a rotavirus vaccine. Prevaccine baseline data on rotavirus disease burden are crucial for monitoring the impact of this new vaccine program.

METHODS

We conducted active, hospital-based surveillance for rotavirus disease at 8 regional public hospitals in Sudan using a standard protocol recommended by the World Health Organization for 2 full years immediately preceding vaccine introduction. Cases were children <5 years hospitalized with gastroenteritis, defined as acute onset of 3 or more loose stools or 2 or more episodes of vomiting in a 24-hour period. Stool specimens from cases were tested for rotavirus using a commercially available assay.

RESULTS

From June 2009 to May 2011, rotavirus was detected in 3985 (36%) of 10,953 children hospitalized for gastroenteritis, with detection rates ranging from 25% to 48% at the 8 hospitals. Approximately 61% of the rotavirus hospitalizations occurred before 1 year of age and most (91%) occurred before 2 years of age. Rotavirus was detected year-round in Sudan with peaks during March to May and November to December. Applying rotavirus prevalence to national estimates of diarrhea events, we calculated 9800 deaths, 22,800 hospitalizations and 55,400 outpatient visits related to rotavirus per year among children <5 years of age in Sudan.

CONCLUSIONS

The high burden of rotavirus disease in Sudan indicates that the recently implemented vaccination program should substantially improve child health in Sudan. This nationwide rotavirus surveillance system will be an important platform for assessing the benefits and value of rotavirus vaccine in a developing country setting.

Rotavirus vaccines: successes and challenges

Since 2006, the availability of two new rotavirus vaccines has raised enthusiasm to consider the eventual control and elimination of severe rotavirus diarrhea through the global use of vaccines. Rotavirus remains the most severe cause of acute diarrhea in children worldwide responsible for several hundred thousands of deaths in low income countries and up to half of hospital admissions for diarrhea around the world. The new vaccines have been recommended by WHO for all infants and in more than 47 countries, their introduction into routine childhood immunization programs has led to a remarkable decline in hospital admissions and even deaths within 3 years of introduction. Challenges remain with issues of vaccine finance globally and the problem that these live oral vaccines perform less well in low income settings where they are needed most. Ongoing research that will accompany vaccine introduction might help address these issues of efficacy and new vaccines and novel financing schemes may both help make these vaccines universally available and affordable in the decade.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the global seasonality of norovirus

BACKGROUND

Noroviruses are the most common cause of acute gastroenteritis across all ages worldwide. These pathogens are generally understood to exhibit a wintertime seasonality, though a systematic assessment of seasonal patterns has not been conducted in the era of modern diagnostics.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of the Pubmed Medline database for articles published between 1997 and 2011 to identify and extract data from articles reporting on monthly counts of norovirus. We conducted a descriptive analysis to document seasonal patterns of norovirus disease, and we also constructed multivariate linear models to identify factors associated with the strength of norovirus seasonality.

RESULTS

The searched identified 293 unique articles, yielding 38 case and 29 outbreak data series. Within these data series, 52.7% of cases and 41.2% of outbreaks occurred in winter months, and 78.9% of cases and 71.0% of outbreaks occurred in cool months. Both case and outbreak studies showed an earlier peak in season-year 2002-03, but not in season-year 2006-07, years when new genogroup II type 4 variants emerged. For outbreaks, norovirus season strength was positively associated with average rainfall in the wettest month, and inversely associated with crude birth rate in both bivariate and multivariate analyses. For cases, none of the covariates examined was associated with season strength. When case and outbreaks were combined, average rainfall in the wettest month was positively associated with season strength.

CONCLUSIONS

Norovirus is a wintertime phenomenon, at least in the temperate northern hemisphere where most data are available. Our results point to possible associations of season strength with rain in the wettest month and crude birth rate.

Think globally, act locally: the role of local demographics and vaccination coverage in the dynamic response of measles infection to control

The global reduction of the burden of morbidity and mortality owing to measles has been a major triumph of public health. However, the continued persistence of measles infection probably not only reflects local variation in progress towards vaccination target goals, but may also reflect local variation in dynamic processes of transmission, susceptible replenishment through births and stochastic local extinction. Dynamic models predict that vaccination should increase the mean age of infection and increase inter-annual variability in incidence. Through a comparative approach, we assess national-level patterns in the mean age of infection and measles persistence. We find that while the classic predictions do hold in general, the impact of vaccination on the age distribution of cases and stochastic fadeout are mediated by local birth rate. Thus, broad-scale vaccine coverage goals are unlikely to have the same impact on the interruption of measles transmission in all demographic settings. Indeed, these results suggest that the achievement of further measles reduction or elimination goals is likely to require programmatic and vaccine coverage goals that are tailored to local demographic conditions.

Decreasing fertility rate correlates with the chronological increase and geographical variation in incidence of Kawasaki disease in Japan

Background

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a common cause of acquired paediatric heart disease in developed countries. KD was first identified in the 1960s in Japan, and has been steadily increasing since it was first reported. The aetiology of KD has not been defined, but is assumed to be infection-related. The present study sought to identify the factor(s) that mediate the geographical variation and chronological increase of KD in Japan.

Methods and Findings

Based upon data reported between 1979 and 2010 from all 47 prefectures in Japan, the incidence and mean patient age at the onset of KD were estimated. Using spatial and time-series analyses, incidence and mean age were regressed against climatic/socioeconomic variables. Both incidence and mean age of KD were inversely correlated with the total fertility rate (TFR; i.e., the number of children that would be born to one woman). The extrapolation of a time-series regressive model suggested that KD emerged in the 1960s because of a dramatic decrease in TFR in the 1940s through the 1950s.

Conclusions

Mean patient age is an inverse surrogate for the hazard of contracting the aetiologic agent. Therefore, the observed negative correlation between mean patient age and TFR suggests that a higher TFR is associated with KD transmission. This relationship may be because a higher TFR facilitates sibling-to-sibling transmission. Additionally, the observed inverse correlation between incidence and TFR implies a paradoxical “negative” correlation between the incidence and the hazard of contracting the aetiologic agent. It was hypothesized that a decreasing TFR resulted in a reduced hazard of contracting the agent for KD, thereby increasing KD incidence.

A critical literature review of health economic evaluations of rotavirus vaccination

Two licensed vaccines are available to prevent RVGE in infants. A worldwide critical review of economic evaluations of these vaccines was conducted. The objective was to describe differences in methodologies, assumptions and inputs and determine the key factors driving differences in conclusions. 68 economic evaluations were reviewed. RV vaccination was found to be cost-effective in developing countries, while conclusions varied between studies in developed countries. Many studies found that vaccination was likely to be cost-effective under some scenarios, such as lower prices scenarios, inclusion of herd protection, and/or adoption of a societal perspective. Other reasons for variability included uncertainty around healthcare visits incidence and lack of consensus on quality of life (QoL) valuation for infants and caregivers. New evidence on the vaccination effectiveness in real-world, new ways of modeling herd protection and assessments of QoL in children could help more precisely define the conditions under which RV vaccination would be cost-effective in developed countries.

Shift in human rotavirus distribution in Belo Horizonte, Brazil detected by ribonucleic acid electrophoresis

Rotavirus has been considered the main agent of infectious diarrhea especially among younger children. We addressed the prevalence of rotavirus-associated diarrhea and the diversity of circulating electropherotypes by immunochromatography and RNA electrophoresis. Stool samples were taken from 391 children (267 with diarrhea) from the lower socioeconomic stratum who sought treatment in the Hospital Infantil João Paulo II/Belo Horizonte, during 2005 and 2006. Rotavirus was detected in 79/20.2% of subjects, 64/24.0% with diarrhea and 15/12.1% with no diarrhea. The virus was strongly associated with diarrhea (p = 0.003). A total of 76/19.4% and 69/17.6% rotavirus-positive children were identified by immunochromatography and electrophoresis, respectively. Rotavirus-associated diarrhea was more frequently detected in dry months (p < 0.001) and almost exclusively in children aged up to three years. Long profile strains prevailed (54/78.3%) but a shift toward short electropherotype was identified. Despite the decrease seen in 2006, rotavirus infection is still very common in our area. Although viral RNA electrophoresis is useful as a typing method, it should not be used exclusively in the diagnosis of rotavirus infection. We confirmed a shift from long to short profile strains, as already described for other South American countries.

Global seasonality of rotavirus disease

BACKGROUND

A substantial number of surveillance studies have documented rotavirus prevalence among children admitted for dehydrating diarrhea. We sought to establish global seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease before the introduction of widespread vaccination.

METHODS

We reviewed studies of rotavirus detection in children with diarrhea published since 1995. We assessed potential relationships between seasonal prevalence and locality by plotting the average monthly proportion of diarrhea cases positive for rotavirus according to geography, country development and latitude. We used linear regression to identify variables that were potentially associated with the seasonal intensity of rotavirus.

RESULTS

Among a total of 99 studies representing all 6 geographic regions of the world, patterns of year-round disease were more evident in low- and low-middle income countries compared with upper-middle and high-income countries where disease was more likely to be seasonal. The level of country development was a stronger predictor of strength of seasonality (P = 0.001) than geographic location or climate. However, the observation of distinctly different seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease in some countries with similar geographic location, climate and level of development indicate that a single unifying explanation for variation in seasonality of rotavirus disease is unlikely.

CONCLUSION

While no unifying explanation emerged for varying rotavirus seasonality globally, the country income level was somewhat more predictive of the likelihood of having seasonal disease than other factors. Future evaluation of the effect of rotavirus vaccination on seasonal patterns of disease in different settings may help understand factors that drive the global seasonality of rotavirus disease.

Environmental predictors of seasonal influenza epidemics across temperate and tropical climates

Human influenza infections exhibit a strong seasonal cycle in temperate regions. Recent laboratory and epidemiological evidence suggests that low specific humidity conditions facilitate the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus in temperate regions, resulting in annual winter epidemics. However, this relationship is unlikely to account for the epidemiology of influenza in tropical and subtropical regions where epidemics often occur during the rainy season or transmit year-round without a well-defined season. We assessed the role of specific humidity and other local climatic variables on influenza virus seasonality by modeling epidemiological and climatic information from 78 study sites sampled globally. We substantiated that there are two types of environmental conditions associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: "cold-dry" and "humid-rainy". For sites where monthly average specific humidity or temperature decreases below thresholds of approximately 11-12 g/kg and 18-21°C during the year, influenza activity peaks during the cold-dry season (i.e., winter) when specific humidity and temperature are at minimal levels. For sites where specific humidity and temperature do not decrease below these thresholds, seasonal influenza activity is more likely to peak in months when average precipitation totals are maximal and greater than 150 mm per month. These findings provide a simple climate-based model rooted in empirical data that accounts for the diversity of seasonal influenza patterns observed across temperate, subtropical and tropical climates.

Monitoring of rotavirus vaccination in Morocco: establishing the baseline burden of rotavirus disease

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality worldwide. Clinical trials for two rotavirus vaccines recommended by the WHO for global use since 2009 have successfully demonstrated the safety and efficacy of these vaccines in a wide range of countries. To control the burden of severe and fatal diarrheal disease, the Ministry of Health of Morocco introduced the single strain rotavirus vaccine into their national immunization program in 2010.

METHODS

We employed a standard WHO case definition to identify children under 5 hospitalized with AGE at four hospitals from June 2006 to May 2010 to establish baseline burden of rotavirus disease before introduction of vaccine. Stool samples were collected and tested for rotavirus using a standard enzyme immunoassay.

RESULTS

Overall, 40% (741 of 1841) of the children hospitalized with AGE tested positive for rotavirus, making it the single most common cause of severe gastroenteritis among children in Morocco. Applying this prevalence to the estimates of diarrheal hospitalizations and deaths in Morocco, we estimate that rotavirus annually causes 19,646 hospitalizations and 1604 deaths in children under 5 years of age.

DISCUSSION

On the basis of these surveillance data, we estimate that 1 in 389 Moroccan children died and 1 in 32 was hospitalized due to rotavirus before their fifth birthday. A considerable proportion of these deaths and hospitalizations should be preventable through vaccination, and the 4 years of stable prevaccine surveillance in Morocco will be a tremendously useful platform for assessing potential changes in the epidemiology of rotavirus disease and measuring impact of the new rotavirus vaccine program in Morocco.

Seasonality of viral infections: mechanisms and unknowns

Seasonality is a long-recognized attribute of many viral infections of humans, but the mechanisms underlying seasonality, particularly for person-to-person communicable diseases, remain poorly understood. Better understanding of drivers of seasonality could provide insights into the relationship between the physical environment and infection risk, which is particularly important in the context of global ecological change in general, and climate change in particular. In broad terms, seasonality represents oscillation in pathogens' effective reproductive number, which, in turn, must reflect oscillatory changes in infectiousness, contact patterns, pathogen survival, or host susceptibility. Epidemiological challenges to correct identification of seasonal drivers of risk include failure to adjust for predictable correlation between disease incidence and seasonal exposures, and unmeasured confounding. The existing evidence suggests that the seasonality of some enteric and respiratory viral pathogens may be driven by enhanced wintertime survival of pathogens, and also by increased host susceptibility resulting from relative 'wintertime immune suppression'. For vector-borne diseases and zoonoses, environmental influences on vector or reservoir abundance, and vector biting rates, are probably more important. However, numerous areas of uncertainty exist, making this an exciting area for future research.

Seasonality of rotavirus in South Asia: a meta-analysis approach assessing associations with temperature, precipitation, and vegetation index

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus infection causes a significant proportion of diarrhea in infants and young children worldwide leading to dehydration, hospitalization, and in some cases death. Rotavirus infection represents a significant burden of disease in developing countries, such as those in South Asia.

METHODS

We conducted a meta-analysis to examine how patterns of rotavirus infection relate to temperature and precipitation in South Asia. Monthly rotavirus data were abstracted from 39 published epidemiological studies and related to monthly aggregated ambient temperature and cumulative precipitation for each study location using linear mixed-effects models. We also considered associations with vegetation index, gathered from remote sensing data. Finally, we assessed whether the relationship varied in tropical climates and humid mid-latitude climates.

RESULTS

Overall, as well as in tropical and humid mid-latitude climates, low temperature and precipitation levels are significant predictors of an increased rate of rotaviral diarrhea. A 1°C decrease in monthly ambient temperature and a decrease of 10 mm in precipitation are associated with 1.3% and 0.3% increase above the annual level in rotavirus infections, respectively. When assessing lagged relationships, temperature and precipitation in the previous month remained significant predictors and the association with temperature was stronger in the tropical climate. The same association was seen for vegetation index; a seasonal decline of 0.1 units results in a 3.8% increase in rate of rotavirus.

CONCLUSIONS

In South Asia the highest rate of rotavirus was seen in the colder, drier months. Meteorological characteristics can be used to better focus and target public health prevention programs.

First reports of human rotavirus G8P[4] gastroenteritis in the United States

In 2009, three children were hospitalized in Rochester, NY, with sequence-confirmed G8P[4] rotavirus gastroenteritis-the first U.S. detection of this uncommon strain more typically found in Africa. Continued monitoring of G8P[4] and other rotavirus genotypes not represented in current vaccines is essential to assess whether vaccination will result in an increase in prevalence of these strains.