A model to predict survival in patients with end-stage liver disease

Palliative care for end-stage liver disease and acute on chronic liver failure: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

End stage liver disease (ESLD) represents a growing health concern characterized by elevated morbidity and mortality, particularly among individual ineligible for liver transplantation. The demand for palliative care (PC) is pronounced in patients grappling with ESLD and acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF). Unfortunately, the historical underutilization of PC in ESLD patients, despite their substantial needs and those of their family caregivers, underscores the imperative of seamlessly integrating PC principles into routine healthcare practices across the entire disease spectrum.

AIM

To comprehensively investigate the evidence surrounding the benefits of incorporating PC into the comprehensive care plan for individuals confronting ESLD and/or ACLF.

METHODS

A systematic search in the Medline (PubMed) database was performed using a predetermined search command, encompassing studies published in English without any restrictions on the publication date. Subsequently, the retrieved studies were manually examined. Simple descriptive analyses were employed to summarize the results.

RESULTS

The search strategies yielded 721 references. Following the final analysis, 32 full-length references met the inclusion criteria and were consequently incorporated into the study. Meticulous data extraction from these 32 studies was undertaken, leading to the execution of a comprehensive narrative systematic review. The review found that PC provides significant benefits, reducing symptom burden, depressive symptoms, readmission rates, and hospital stays. Yet, barriers like the appeal of transplants and misconceptions about PC hinder optimal utilization. Integrating PC early, upon the diagnosis of ESLD and ACLF, regardless of transplant eligibility and availability, improves the quality of life for these patients.

CONCLUSION

Despite the substantial suffering and poor prognosis associated with ESLD and ACLF, where liver transplantation stands as the only curative treatment, albeit largely inaccessible, PC services have been overtly provided too late in the course of the illness. A comprehensive understanding of PC's pivotal role in treating ESLD and ACLF is crucial for overcoming these barriers, involving healthcare providers, patients, and caregivers.

Acute Kidney Injury in Patients with Cirrhosis and Chronic Kidney Disease: Results from the HRS-HARMONY Consortium

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) frequency is increasing in patients with cirrhosis and these individuals often experience acute kidney injury (AKI). Direct comparisons of outcomes between AKI-only versus AKI on CKD (AoCKD) among patients with cirrhosis are not well described.

METHODS

A total of 2057 patients with cirrhosis and AKI across 11 hospital networks from the HRS-HARMONY consortium were analyzed (70% AKI-only and 30% AoCKD). The primary outcome was unadjusted and adjusted 90-day mortality, with transplant as a competing risk, using Fine and Gray analysis.

RESULTS

Compared with patients with AKI-only, patients with AoCKD had higher median admission creatinine (2.25 [interquartile range, 1.7-3.2] vs 1.83 [1.38-2.58] mg/dL) and peak creatinine (2.79 [2.12-4] vs 2.42 [1.85-3.50] mg/dL) but better liver function parameters (total bilirubin 1.5 [interquartile range, 0.7-3.1] vs 3.4 [1.5-9.3] mg/dL; and international normalized ratio 1.4 [interquartile range, 1.2-1.8] vs 1.7 [1.39-2.2]; P < .001 for all). Patients with AoCKD were more likely to have metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease cirrhosis (31% vs 17%) and less likely to have alcohol-associated liver disease (26% vs 45%; P < .001 for both). Patients with AKI-only had higher unadjusted mortality (39% vs 30%), rate of intensive care unit admission (52% vs 35%; P < .001 for both), and use of renal-replacement therapy (20% vs 15%; P = .005). After adjusting for age, race, sex, transplant listing status, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium score, AoCKD was associated with a lower 90-day mortality compared with AKI-only (subhazard ratio, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.87).

CONCLUSIONS

In hospitalized patients with AKI and cirrhosis, AoCKD was associated with lower 90-day mortality compared with AKI-only. This may be caused by the impact of worse liver function parameters in the AKI-only group on short-term outcomes. Further study of the complicated interplay between acute and chronic kidney disease in cirrhosis is needed.

Risk factors for postoperative morbidity after ventral hernia repair in patients with liver cirrhosis. A single tertiary center cohort

<b>Introduction:</b> Ventral hernias are common among patients with liver cirrhosis.<b>Aim:</b> The aim of our work was to evaluate potential risk factors for major postoperative morbidity after ventral hernia repair in cirrhotic patients.<b>Material and methods:</b> A retrospective cohort study was performed in 45 consecutive cirrhotic patients that underwent ventral hernia repair between 2005 and 2022. Major morbidity was defined as Clavien-Dindo ≥ IIIa at 30 days postoperatively. Uni- and multivariate analysis was performed to identify risk factors for major postoperative complications.<b>Results:</b> In our cohort, we observed an overall postoperative 30-day morbidity rate of 53.33% (n = 24), with 40% (n = 18) of cases classified as Clavien-Dindo IIIa or above. Elevated serum creatinine level preoperatively was identified as a statistically significant risk factor, both in the uni- as well as the multivariate analysis for major morbidity (OR = 31.08; 95%CI [29.51-32.65]; P = 0.028).<b>Conclusions:</b> Increased creatinine levels were found to be a significant modifiable factor for major morbidity after ventral hernia repair in cases with cirrhosis. This finding underlines the impact of preoperative medical management of cirrhotic patients on postoperative outcome in this patient population.

Predictive Factors and Nomogram for Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis in Decompensated Cirrhosis Among the Elderly

Background and Aims

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) represents a significant complication in the decompensated phase of cirrhosis. The challenges in treating SBP and the associated mortality rates are markedly elevated in elderly individuals. Timely detection and intervention for SBP are imperative. We aimed to develop a predictive tool for the occurrence of SBP in elderly individuals with decompensated cirrhosis (DC).

Methods

Elderly patients diagnosed with DC were enrolled from Chengdu Fifth People's Hospital in China, spanning from January 1, 2015, to September 31, 2023. Among the patients, 337 were assigned to the training cohort, while 145 were designated to the validation cohort. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify significant predictors and to develop a nomogram for predicting the occurrence of SBP. To evaluate the model's discrimination and calibration, a bootstrap method with 1000 resamples was utilized.

Results

Findings from the multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that constipation (odds ratio [OR] 2.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25-3.49, P=0.005), ascites (OR 2.84, 95% CI 1.64-4.92, P<0.001), Child-Pugh-Turcotte (CPT) score (OR 4.80, 95% CI 1.69-13.60, P=0.003), and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) (OR 2.96, 95% CI 1.54-5.45, P=0.001) were significant independent predictors for the occurrence of SBP in elderly individuals with DC. The generated nomogram showed an area under the curve of 0.779 for the training cohort and 0.817 for the validation cohort. The nomogram's calibration curve nearly matched the perfect diagonal line, and decision curve analysis showed an improved net benefit for the model. Subsequent validation further corroborated the reliability of the predictive nomogram.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the nomogram, incorporating variables such as constipation, ascites, CPT score, and hs-CRP, effectively predicted the occurrence of SBP in elderly patients with DC, underscoring its substantial clinical applicability.

Advancements in MELD Score and Its Impact on Hepatology

There continues to be an ongoing need for fair and equitable organ allocation. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has evolved as a calculated framework to evaluate and allocate patients for liver transplantation objectively. The original MELD score has undergone multiple modifications as it is continuously scrutinized for its accuracy in objectively representing the clinical context of patients with liver disease. Several refinements and iterations of the score have been developed, including the widely accepted MELD-Na score. In addition, the most recent updated iteration, MELD 3.0, has been created. The MELD 3.0 calculator incorporates new variables such as patient sex and serum albumin levels and assigns new weights for serum sodium, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine levels. It is anticipated that the use of MELD 3.0 scores will reduce overall waitlist mortality and enhance access for female liver transplant candidates. However, despite the emergence of the MELD score as one of the most objective measures for fair organ allocation, various countries and healthcare systems employ alternative methods for stratification and organ allocation. This review article will highlight the origins of the MELD score, its iterations, the current MELD 3.0, and future directions for managing liver transplantation organ allocation. LAY SUMMARY: Organ donation is crucial for the management of patients unwell with liver disease, but organs must be allocated fairly and equitably. One method used for this is the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, which helps objectively decide which patient is a candidate for liver transplant. Over time, the MELD score has been refined to better reflect patients' needs. For example, the latest version, MELD 3.0, now considers factors like nutrition and gender. This should ensure that more patients, especially females, are candidates and receive appropriate access to liver transplantation. However, not every country uses the MELD score. Some countries have created their own scoring systems based on local research. This review will explain where the MELD score came from, how it has changed, the current characteristics of the MELD 3.0 score, and what the future might hold for organ allocation in liver transplants.

Post-Liver Transplant Outcomes: A Comparative Study of 6 Predictive Models

Background

We compared the performance of the Liver Transplant Risk Score (LTRS) with the survival outcomes following liver transplantation (SOFT), pretransplant SOFT (P-SOFT), Balance of Risk Score (BAR), donor-age and model for end-stage liver disease (D-MELD), and Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network Risk Prediction Score (ORPS) for the prediction of 90-d mortality, 1-y mortality, and 5-y survival after first-time liver transplantation (LT).

Methods

A retrospective analysis of the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients was conducted using data collected between 2002 and 2021.

Results

A total of 82 696 adult LT recipients with a median age of 56 y were included. The area under the curve for 90-d mortality were 0.61, 0.66, 0.65, 0.61, 0.58, and 0.56 for the LTRS, SOFT, P-SOFT, BAR, D-MELD, and ORPS, respectively (all pairwise comparisons: P < 0.05). The area under the curve for 1-y mortality were 0.60, 0.63, 0.62, 0.59, 0.60, 0.57, and 0.59 for the LTRS, SOFT, P-SOFT, BAR, D-MELD, and ORPS, respectively (all pairwise comparisons: P < 0.05). The c-statistics for 5-y survival were not statistically significant among the models. For 90-d mortality, 1-y mortality, and 5-y survival, the correlation coefficients between the LTRS and P-SOFT (the 2 models requiring only preoperative parameters) were 0.90. 0.91, and 0.81, respectively (P < 0.01).

Conclusions

None of the predictive models demonstrated sufficient precision to reliably identify LT recipients who died within 90 d and 1 y after LT. However, all models exhibited strong capabilities in perioperative risk stratification. Notably, the P-SOFT and LTRS models, the 2 models that can be calculated using only preoperative data, proved to be valuable tools for identifying candidates at a significant risk of poor outcomes.

First consensus document of waiting list prioritization for liver transplantation by the Spanish Society of Liver Transplantation (SETH)

Spain is worldwide leader in deceased donation rates per million habitants and count on a strong network of twenty-five liver transplant institutions. Although the access to liver transplantation is higher than in other countries, approximately 10% of patients qualifying for liver transplantation in Spain will die in the waiting list or would be excluded due to clinical deterioration. A robust waiting list prioritization system is paramount to grant the sickest patients with the first positions in the waiting list for an earlier access to transplant. In addition, the allocation policy may not create or perpetuate inequities, particularly in a public and universal healthcare system. Hitherto, Spain lacks a unique national allocation system for elective liver transplantation. Most institutions establish their own rules for liver allocation and only two autonomous regions, namely Andalucía and Cataluña, share part of their waiting list within their territory to provide regional priority to patients requiring more urgent transplantation. This heterogeneity is further aggravated by the recently described sex-based disparities for accessing liver transplantation in Spain, and by the expansion of liver transplant indications, mainly for oncological indications, in absence of clear guidance on the optimal prioritization policy. The present document contains the recommendations from the first consensus of waiting list prioritization for liver transplantation issued by the Spanish Society of Liver Transplantation (SETH). The document was supported by all liver transplant institutions in Spain and by the Organización Nacional de Trasplantes (ONT). Its implementation will allow to homogenize practices and to improve equity and outcomes among patients with end-stage liver disease.

Alcohol-associated liver disease: Emerging therapeutic strategies

The large and growing burden of alcohol-associated liver disease-and the considerable burden of morbidity and mortality associated with it-has been a drive toward ongoing research into novel strategies for its treatment, with a particular focus upon alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH). Management of alcohol-use disorder forms the central pillar of alcohol-associated liver disease care, with evidence-based psychological and pharmacological approaches being well established, and certain models demonstrating improved clinical outcomes when hepatology and addiction services are co-located. Corticosteroids have previously been used somewhat indiscriminately in patients with severe AH, but effective tools now exist to assess early response (and limit futile ongoing exposure). Techniques to predict risk of corticosteroid-related infection are also available, although current clinical strategies to mitigate this risk are limited. A variety of novel therapeutic approaches to AH are at different phases of trials and evidence gathering, with some of the most promising signals related to cytokine manipulation, epigenetic modulation, and targeting of the gut microbiota (ie, by means of fecal microbiota transplant). While remaining an ongoing source of debate, early liver transplant in severe AH has grown in interest and acceptability over the past decade as evidence supporting its efficacy builds, in the process challenging paradigms about mandatory pretransplant sobriety periods. However, uncertainty remains regarding the optimal selection criteria, and whether liver transplant has a role for only a highly limited proportion of patients with AH or more widespread application. This review aims to provide an overview of this fast-moving field.

Body Size Remains the Major Source of Sex Disparity Despite Updated Liver Transplant Allocation Policies

BACKGROUND

Efforts to address US liver transplant (LT) access inequities continue, yet disparities linked to candidate traits persist.

METHODS

Analyzing national registry data pre- and post-Acuity Circle (AC) policy, our study assessed the impact of low body surface area (BSA) on LT waitlist mortality. The outcomes of LT candidates listed in the pre-AC era (n = 39 227) and post-AC (n = 38 443) were compared for patients with low BSA (22.9% pre-AC and 23.3% post-AC).

RESULTS

Fine-Gray competing risk models highlighted that candidates with low BSA had a lower likelihood of LT both pre-AC (hazard ratio [HR] 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92-0.95) and post-AC (HR 0.96; 95% CI, 0.94-0.98), with minimal improvement in waitlist mortality/dropout risk from pre-AC (HR 1.15; 95% CI, 1.09-1.21) to post-AC (HR 1.13; 95% CI, 1.06-1.19). Findings were mostly reaffirmed by Cox regression models incorporating the trajectory of Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores as time-dependent covariates. Regions 3, 5, and 7 showed notable LT waitlist disparities among low BSA patients post-AC policy. Causal mediation analysis revealed that low BSA and the difference between MELD-sodium and MELD 3.0 (MELD_D, as a proxy for the potential impact of the introduction of MELD 3.0) largely explained the sex disparity in AC allocation (percent mediated 90.4).

CONCLUSIONS

LT waitlist disparities for female candidates persist, largely mediated by small body size. Although MELD 3.0 may reduce some disparities, further body size adjustments for in allocation models are justified.

Top-Down Proteomics Identifies Plasma Proteoform Signatures of Liver Cirrhosis Progression

Cirrhosis, advanced liver disease, affects 2 to 5 million Americans. While most patients have compensated cirrhosis and may be fairly asymptomatic, many decompensate and experience life-threatening complications such as gastrointestinal bleeding, confusion (hepatic encephalopathy), and ascites, reducing life expectancy from 12 to less than 2 years. Among patients with compensated cirrhosis, identifying patients at high risk of decompensation is critical to optimize care and reduce morbidity and mortality. Therefore, it is important to preferentially direct them towards specialty care which cannot be provided to all patients with cirrhosis. We used discovery top-down proteomics to identify differentially expressed proteoforms (DEPs) in the plasma of patients with progressive stages of liver cirrhosis with the ultimate goal to identify candidate biomarkers of disease progression. In this pilot study, we identified 209 DEPs across three stages of cirrhosis (compensated, compensated with portal hypertension, and decompensated), of which 115 derived from proteins enriched in the liver at a transcriptional level and discriminated the three stages of cirrhosis. Enrichment analyses demonstrated DEPs are involved in several metabolic and immunological processes known to be impacted by cirrhosis progression. We have preliminarily defined the plasma proteoform signatures of cirrhosis patients, setting the stage for ongoing discovery and validation of biomarkers for early diagnosis, risk stratification, and disease monitoring.

CIRSE Standards of Practice on Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunts

BACKGROUND

Proposed in the early 1980s as a solution for managing complications of portal hypertension, the percutaneous creation of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt has consistently gained a central role. Increasingly lower complication rates have been observed thanks to improvements in both technologies and the skills of interventional radiologists.

PURPOSE

This document is aimed at interventional radiologists and provides best practice recommendations for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt creation, describing patient selection, intraprocedural management and follow-up, in addition to recommendations in paediatric settings.

METHODS

The CIRSE Standards of Practice Committee established a writing group consisting of seven European clinicians with recognised expertise in the creation of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt. The writing group reviewed the existing literature performing a pragmatic evidence search using PubMed to select relevant publications in the English language and involving human subjects, preferably published from 2009 to 2024. The final recommendations were developed by consensus.

RESULTS

TIPS creation has an established role in the successful management of portal hypertension and its complications. This Standards of Practice document provides up-to-date recommendations for patient selection, materials, its safe performance, and follow-up with complications management.

Graft-to-recipient weight ratio and risk of systemic inflammatory response syndrome early after liver transplantation in children

BACKGROUND

Systemic inflammatory responses soon after liver transplantation in children can lead to complications and poor outcomes, so here we examined potential risk factors of such responses.

METHODS

Data were retrospectively analyzed for 69 children who underwent liver transplantation at a single center between July 2017 and November 2019 through follow-up lasting up to one years. Numerous clinicodemographic factors were compared between those who suffered early systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) or not.

RESULTS

Of the 69 patients in our analysis, early SIRS occurred in 35 [50.7%, 95% confidence interval (CI), 38.6-62.8%]. Those patients showed significantly higher graft-to-recipient weight ratio (3.69 ± 1.26 vs. 3.12 ± 0.99%, P = 0.042) and lower survival rate at one year (85.7% vs. 100%, P = 0.023). Multivariate analysis found graft-to-recipient weight ratio > 4% to be an independent risk factor for early SIRS [odds ratio (OR) 3.8, 95% CI 1.08-13.371, P = 0.037], and a cut-off value of 4.04% predicted the syndrome in our patients, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.656 (95% CI 0.525-0.788, P = 0.026).

CONCLUSIONS

Graft-to-recipient weight ratio > 4% may predict higher risk of SIRS soon after liver transplantation in children.

Establishing a predictive nomogram for 21‑day transplant-free survival in drug-induced liver failure

BACKGROUND

The high prevalence of drug-induced liver failure (DILF) have drawn great attention from clinicians.

AIM

To further delineate the clinical features of DILF and develop an easily applicable nomogram, based on readily-discernable clinical data, to predict transplant-free survival (TFS) at different time points.

METHODS

202 DILF patients were enrolled between January 2016 and December 2022, and were followed up from DILF diagnosis to death, liver transplantation, or 91 days afterward, whichever came first. The primary endpoint, though, was 21-day TFS. Clinical data was collected from all patients, and independent risk factors associated with death/liver transplantation was identified using both uni- and multi-variate Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

Independent risk factors incorporated into the predictive nomogram are neutrophils (HR = 1.148, 95% CI = 1.048-1.257), prothrombin time (HR = 1.048, 95% CI = 1.017-1.080), albumin (HR = 0.880, 95% CI = 0.823-0.941), acute kidney injury (HR = 2.487, 95% CI = 1.134-5.452), and hepatic encephalopathy (HR = 3.378, 95% CI = 1.744-6.543). The resulting nomogram was highly predictive, with an area under the curve of 0.947 for 21-day TFS.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to existing models, such as the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, the predictive nomogram is more accurate, only requires easily-measurable clinical and laboratory metrics, as well as being able to directly calculate TFS at various time points.

Development and validation of a model for early survival prediction following liver transplantation based on donor and recipient characteristics

BACKGROUND

Circulating cytokine levels not only correlate with the progression of liver disease but also serve as indicators for the infection status of the body. Growing evidence points to the connection between donor cytokines and graft function following transplantation. This study set out to explore the clinical significance of donor cytokines in predicting liver transplantation prognosis.

METHODS

Data from 172 deceased donor liver transplantations conducted between 2017 and 2022, with available donor serum cytokine information, were collected. The subjects were randomly divided into estimation (n = 120) and validation (n = 52) groups to establish and validate the model. The newly developed SA10 score was compared against established models EAD, MEAF, L-GrAFT7, and L-GrAFT10.

RESULTS

Donor IL-10, along with donor age and recipient AST peak value within the first 7 days post-operation, was identified as an independent factor associated with recipient survival and was incorporated into the SA10 score. SA10 exhibited robust predictive capability, particularly for 1-month survival (AUC = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.84-0.96), outperforming EAD (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.60-0.90, p = 0.04) and L-GrAFT7 (AUC = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.49-0.81, p < 0.01). Comparable performance was observed between SA10, MEAF, and L-GrAFT10.

CONCLUSION

Donor IL-10 independently influences recipient survival, with the SA10 score demonstrating comparable and even superior predictive ability compared to existing models.

Analyzing prognosis and comparing predictive scoring systems for mortality of COVID-19 patients with liver cirrhosis: a multicenter retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Limited research suggested that liver cirrhosis is an independent risk factor for severe COVID-19, leading to higher hospitalization and mortality rates. This study aimed to identify the prognostic factors and validate scoring systems for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study extracted electronic health records of patients with COVID-19 who visited the emergency department between April 2021 and September 2022. Adult COVID-19 patients with liver cirrhosis were included, excluding those aged < 18 years and who did not require hospitalization. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. The effectiveness of the scoring systems were analyzed for COVID-19 in-house mortality prediction.

RESULTS

A total of 1,368 adult COVID-19 patients with liver cirrhosis were included in this study. Compared with the survival group, the non-survival group had lower vital signs such as systolic blood pressure and blood oxygen saturation, higher levels of white blood cells, creatinine, bilirubin, and C-reactive protein, and longer prothrombin time. Higher rates of intubation, oxygen use, and dexamethasone use were observed in the non-survivor group. The WHO ordinal scale, MELD, and MELD-Na scores showed good predictive ability for in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The WHO ordinal scale showed the best performance in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis and COVID-19. MELD and MELD-Na scores were also found good performance for mortality prediction. Coagulation function, intubation, and dexamethasone administration were the most significant prognostic factors.

Outcomes of patients with acute liver failure not listed for liver transplantation: A cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Acute liver failure (ALF) is a rare condition leading to morbidity and mortality. Liver transplantation (LT) is often required, but patients are not always listed for LT. There is a lack of data regarding outcomes in these patients. Our aim is to describe outcomes of patients with ALF not listed for LT and to compare this with those listed for LT.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of all nonlisted patients with ALF enrolled in the Acute Liver Failure Study Group (ALFSG) registry between 1998 and 2018. The primary outcome was 21-day mortality. Multivariable logistic regression was done to identify factors associated with 21-day mortality. The comparison was then made with patients with ALF listed for LT.

RESULTS

A total of 1672 patients with ALF were not listed for LT. The median age was 41 (IQR: 30-54). Three hundred seventy-one (28.9%) patients were too sick to list. The most common etiology was acetaminophen toxicity (54.8%). Five hundred fifty-eight (35.7%) patients died at 21 days. After adjusting for relevant covariates, King's College Criteria (adjusted odds ratio: 3.17, CI 2.23-4.51), mechanical ventilation (adjusted odds ratio: 1.53, CI: 1.01-2.33), and vasopressors (adjusted odds ratio: 2.10, CI: 1.43-3.08) (p < 0.05 for all) were independently associated with 21-day mortality. Compared to listed patients, nonlisted patients had higher mortality (35.7% vs. 24.3%). Patients deemed not sick enough had greater than 95% survival, while those deemed too sick still had >30% survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite no LT, the majority of patients were alive at 21 days. Survival was lower in nonlisted patients. Clinicians are more accurate in deeming patients not sick enough to require LT as opposed to deeming patients too sick to survive.

Evaluation of serum human epididymis protein 4 in children with chronic liver diseases

The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of serum human epididymis protein 4 (HE4) as a non-invasive biomarker for the diagnosis of liver fibrosis in children with chronic liver diseases (CLD). This case-control study was conducted at Benha University Hospital, Egypt, involving 60 children with CLD and 60 healthy children as a control group. HE4 levels were measured by ELISA and compared with liver biopsy results. The CLD group had significant higher HE4 (median: 110.7, IQR: 96.7-120.4 pmol/L) compared to control group (median 42.07, IQR: 41.67-43.05 pmol/L), p < .001. HE4 levels increased significantly with the degree of fibrosis and histological activity index. At a cutoff point >48.3 pmol/L, HE4 diagnosed cases with mild fibrosis with a sensitivity of 95% and specificity of 91.3%. At a cutoff point >144.3 pmol/L, HE4 diagnosed cases with severe fibrosis with a sensitivity of 98% and specificity of 93.1%. Serum HE4 is a potential non-invasive marker for detecting liver fibrosis and its severity in children with CLD.

Multiparametric renal function assessment in cirrhotic patients shows high prevalence of medically actionable changes in multiple modules

AIM

Renal dysfunction is a common complication of cirrhosis, occurring either as part of multiorgan involvement in acute illness or secondary to advanced liver disease. To date, no study has comprehensively assessed multiple renal function parameters in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis through a multiparametric analysis of renal biochemistry markers.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective, observational study including all consecutive patients hospitalized with cirrhosis who underwent a 43-multiparametric renal function assessment between January 1, 2021, and June 30, 2023.

RESULTS

All patients showed at least one of the following renal abnormalities: Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes stage G2 or higher, sodium and/or chloride excretion fraction <1%, electrolyte-free water clearance <0.4 mL/min, or tubular maximum phosphate reabsorption capacity <0.8 mmol/L. The estimated glomerular filtration rate equations significantly overestimated the measured creatinine clearance with median differences of +14 mL/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI 6-29) and +9 mL/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI 2-15) for European Kidney Function Consortium equations, respectively. Notably, 54% and 39% of patients demonstrated estimated glomerular filtration rates exceeding 30% of the measured creatinine clearance when the Chronic Kidney Disease - Epidemiology Collaboration and European Kidney Function Consortium formulas were employed, respectively. Substantial discrepancies in Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes stage assignments were observed between the estimated glomerular filtration rate- and measured creatinine clearance-based assessments.

CONCLUSIONS

This study underscores the value of a multiparametric renal function assessment as a routine tool for evaluating renal function in patients with cirrhosis. A high prevalence of medically actionable renal abnormalities spanning multiple renal function modules, including alterations in glomerular function, salt and solute-free water excretion, and proximal tubule phosphate reabsorption, has been demonstrated in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis.

Three Artificial Liver Models of Treatment of Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Background

This study aimed to investigate clinical efficacy, safety and short-term prognosis of plasma exchange (PE), plasma perfusion combining PE (PP+PE), dual-plasma molecular adsorption system combining PE (DPMAS+PE) in treating acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

Methods

Two hundred and fourteen ACLF patients admitted to our hospital were included and divided into PE (n = 72), PP+PE (n = 75), DPMAS+PE group (n = 67). Laboratory indexes and MELD scores were collected, and clinical efficacy was compared. Patients' adverse reactions during and 24-h after treatment were collected, and safety was compared. Survival status of patients was followed-up within 90 days, and prognosis was analyzed.

Results

PE, PP+PE and DPMAS+PE significantly reduce TBiL, DBiL, ALT, AST, SA, PT, INR, PCT and CRP levels, and increase PA and PTA levels, compared with pre-treatments (P < 0.05). WBC and SCR levels in DPMAS+PE group decreased significantly post-treatment (P < 0.05). Na+ and Cl- levels in PE and PP+PE group decreased significantly post-treatment (P < 0.05). Total adverse reaction incidence in PE, PP+PE, DPMAS+PE group were 38.89%, 22.70%, 17.90%, respectively, with significant differences among three groups (P < 0.05). Ninety-day mortality rates of patients in PE, PP+PE, DPMAS+PE group were 41.67%, 34.67%, 20.90%, respectively, with significant differences among three groups (P < 0.05).

Conclusion

PE, PP+PE and DPMAS+PE three artificial liver treatment modes can effectively improve liver, kidney and coagulation function of ACLF patients. DPMAS+PE demonstrated better ability to remove endotoxin and inflammatory mediators, showed advantages in reducing ACLF patient mortality within 90 days, and had the least impact on electrolyte post-treatment. Therefore, DPMAS+PE can be used as a better choice for clinical treatment.

Inconsistent values and algorithmic fairness: a review of organ allocation priority systems in the United States

BACKGROUND

The Organ Procurement and Transplant Network (OPTN) Final Rule guides national organ transplantation policies, mandating equitable organ allocation and organ-specific priority stratification systems. Current allocation scores rely on mortality predictions.

METHODS

We examined the alignment between the ethical priorities across organ prioritization systems and the statistical design of the risk models in question. We searched PubMed for literature on organ allocation history, policy, and ethics in the United States.

RESULTS

We identified 127 relevant articles, covering kidney (19), liver (60), lung (24), and heart transplants (23), and transplant accessibility (1). Current risk scores emphasize model performance and overlook ethical concerns in variable selection. The inclusion of race, sex, and geographical limits as categorical variables lacks biological basis; therefore, blurring the line between evidence-based models and discrimination. Comprehensive ethical and equity evaluation of risk scores is lacking, with only limited discussion of the algorithmic fairness of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and the Kidney Donor Risk Index (KDRI) in some literature. We uncovered the inconsistent ethical standards underlying organ allocation scores in the United States. Specifically, we highlighted the exception points in MELD, the inclusion of race in KDRI, the geographical limit in the Lung Allocation Score, and the inadequacy of risk stratification in the Heart Tier system, creating obstacles for medically underserved populations.

CONCLUSIONS

We encourage efforts to address statistical and ethical concerns in organ allocation models and urge standardization and transparency in policy development to ensure fairness, equitability, and evidence-based risk predictions.

Lymphocyte to high density lipoprotein ratio can predict the short-term prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients

Background

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome characterized by systemic inflammation, leading to high short-term mortality. The lymphocyte to high-density lipoprotein ratio (LHR) has been introduced as a novel marker of inflammation. However, its role as a prognostic inflammatory biomarker in the context of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) has received limited attention.

Methods

We retrospectively included 272 patients with HBV-ACLF who met the definition of APALC. Data on clinical features and laboratory tests were collected from medical records within 24 h. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for poor short-term prognosis, and LHR-based prediction (LHRB) models were constructed based on risk factors. Furthermore, the accuracy of the LHRB model was validated through rigorous testing.

Results

In the survival and death groups, there were statistical differences in their CTP, MELD, MELD-Na, COSSH-ACLF II scores, and LHR. Multivariate logistic regression identified seven predictors significantly associated with 28-day mortality. Furthermore, statistically significant differences in short-term mortality and certain clinical laboratory tests for poor prognosis were observed between the high and low LHR groups. To assess the predictive performance of various models in terms of short-term mortality, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated. The AUROC values for the CTP, MELD, MELD-Na, COSSH-ACLF II, and LHRB models were found to be 0.725, 0.788, 0.772, 0.871, and 0.877, respectively. The results in the validation group were similar to those in the training group, and the validation results suggested excellent performance of the LHRB model.

Conclusion

LHR levels have the potential to serve as indicators for the prognosis of HBV-ACLF. Additionally, the recently developed LHRB model offers an accessible risk assessment tool.

microRNA associated with hepatocyte injury and systemic inflammation may predict adverse outcomes in cirrhotic patients

As the global prevalence of chronic liver disease continues to rise, the need to determine which patients will develop end-stage liver disease and require liver transplantation is increasingly important. However, current prognostic models perform sub-optimally. We aim to determine microRNA profiles associated with clinical decompensation and mortality/transplantation within 1 year. We examined microRNA expression profiles in plasma samples from patients across the spectrum of cirrhosis (n = 154), acute liver failure (ALF) (n = 22), sepsis (n = 20) and healthy controls (HC) (n = 20). We demonstrated that a microRNA-based model (miR-24 and -27a) associated with systemic inflammation differentiated decompensated cirrhosis states from compensated cirrhosis and HC (AUC 0.77 (95% CI 0.69-0.85)). 6 patients within the compensated cirrhosis group decompensated the subsequent year and their exclusion improved model performance (AUC 0.81 (95% CI 0.71-0.89)). miR-191 (associated with liver injury) predicted risk of mortality across the cohort when acutely decompensated and acute-on-chronic-liver failure patients were included. When they were excluded miR-24 (associated with systemic inflammation) predicted risk of mortality. Our findings demonstrate that microRNA associated with systemic inflammation and liver injury predict adverse outcomes in cirrhosis. miR-24 and -191 require further investigation as prognostic biomarkers and therapeutic targets for patients with liver disease.

The LIVERAID (LIVER And Infectious Diseases)-ICU score predicts in-hospital mortality in liver cirrhosis patients with infections in the intensive care unit

OBJECTIVES

The admission of patients with liver cirrhosis to the intensive care unit (ICU) due to infections is a frequent occurrence, often leading to complications such as hepatic encephalopathy, renal failure and circulatory collapse, significantly elevating mortality risks. Accurate and timely diagnosis and intervention are critical for improving therapeutic outcomes. In this context, medical scoring systems in ICUs are essential for precise diagnosis, severity assessment and appropriate therapeutic strategies. There are no specific models for the prediction of mortality in ICU patients with liver cirrhosis-associated infections. This study aims to develop an improved prognostic scoring system for predicting in-hospital mortality among liver cirrhosis patients with infections in the ICU. This scoring system is designed to enhance the predictive accuracy of in-hospital mortality complementing existing sepsis and liver-specific prognostic models.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted in 620 patients with liver cirrhosis, treated for infections in the ICU of a German university hospital during 2017-19. Advanced statistical techniques were employed to develop and validate the LIVERAID (LIVER And Infectious Diseases)-ICU score, a novel scoring system specifically tailored for liver cirrhosis patients in the ICU with infections. The development of the multivariable logistic regression model involved selecting variables with the highest prognostic efficacy, and its predictive performance was assessed using calibration plots and the concordance statistic (c-index) to evaluate both calibration and discrimination.

RESULTS

The LIVERAID-ICU score integrates Child-Pugh class, serum urea levels and respiratory metrics. It is designed for bedside calculation using basic clinical and laboratory data, with no need for additional tools. In the validation cohort, the LIVERAID-ICU score exhibited enhanced sensitivity and specificity (AUC=0.83) in forecasting in-hospital mortality of patients with liver cirrhosis-associated infections when compared with established scores like Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) (p=0.045), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) (p=0.097), Child (p<0.001) and CLIF consortium acute-on-chronic liver failure (CLIF-C ACLF) (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

The newly developed LIVERAID-ICU score represents a robust, streamlined and easy tool for predicting in-hospital mortality in liver cirrhosis patients with infections, surpassing the predictive capabilities of established liver or sepsis scores like SOFA, MELD, Child and CLIF-C ACLF. The reliance of the LIVERAID-ICU score on fundamental clinical and laboratory data facilitates its global application in ICUs, enabling immediate application at the bedside for patients with liver cirrhosis during episodes of suspected or confirmed infections.

Blood Magnesium Level and Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in a Prospective Liver Cirrhosis Cohort

BACKGROUND

Higher magnesium intake was linked to a lower risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the relationship between blood magnesium level and HCC has not been fully characterized, especially among patients with liver cirrhosis who are at a higher risk for HCC.

METHODS

In the Mass General Brigham Biobank, we developed a new prospective cohort of 1,430 patients with liver cirrhosis without liver cancer history using the validated International Classification of Diseases codes. We used Cox proportional hazards models to generate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident HCC and used generalized estimating equations to compare changes in liver biomarkers according to baseline blood magnesium, adjusting for age, sex, race, lifestyles, body mass index, type 2 diabetes, model for end-stage liver disease score, and hepatitis infection.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 4.26 years, 109 patients developed HCC. Magnesium deficiency (<1.70 mg/dL; N = 158) was associated with a higher risk of HCC (HR = 1.93; 95% CI, 1.12-3.30) compared with magnesium sufficiency (≥1.70 mg/dL; N = 1282). This association remained robust in the 1-year lag analysis (HR = 2.18; 95% CI, 1.11-4.28) and in sensitivity analysis excluding patients with alcoholic liver disease (HR = 2.41; 95% CI, 1.23-4.74). Magnesium in the lowest quartile was associated with a faster increase in alanine transaminase (β = 4.35; 95% CI, 1.06-7.63), aspartate aminotransferase (β = 6.46; 95% CI, 0.28-12.6), direct bilirubin (β = 0.18; 95% CI, 0.01-0.35), and total bilirubin (β = 0.21; 95% CI, 0.03-0.39), compared with the highest quartile.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower blood magnesium level is associated with higher HCC risk and unfavorable liver biomarker changes.

IMPACT

If confirmed, our findings may potentially enable better identification of high-risk patients for HCC and inform better management strategies for liver cirrhosis.

Incorporation of quantitative imaging data using artificial intelligence improves risk prediction in veterans with liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Utilization of electronic health records data to derive predictive indexes such as the electronic Child-Turcotte-Pugh (eCTP) Score can have significant utility in health care delivery. Within the records, CT scans contain phenotypic data which have significant prognostic value. However, data extractions have not traditionally been applied to imaging data. In this study, we used artificial intelligence to automate biomarker extraction from CT scans and examined the value of these features in improving risk prediction in patients with liver disease.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Using a regional liver disease cohort from the Veterans Health System, we retrieved administrative, laboratory, and clinical data for Veterans who had CT scans performed for any clinical indication between 2008 and 2014. Imaging biomarkers were automatically derived using the analytic morphomics platform. In all, 4614 patients were included. We found that the eCTP Score had a Concordance index of 0.64 for the prediction of overall mortality while the imaging-based model alone or with eCTP Score performed significantly better [Concordance index of 0.72 and 0.73 ( p <0.001)]. For the subset of patients without hepatic decompensation at baseline (n=4452), the Concordance index for predicting future decompensation was 0.67, 0.79, and 0.80 for eCTP Score, imaging alone, or combined, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This proof of concept demonstrates that the potential of utilizing automated extraction of imaging features within CT scans either alone or in conjunction with classic health data can improve risk prediction in patients with chronic liver disease.

Vitamin D deficiency stratifies the risk of covert and overt hepatic encephalopathy in patients with cirrhosis: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUNDS & AIMS

This study aimed to investigate the association between vitamin D deficiency and covert hepatic encephalopathy (CHE), overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE) occurrence, and mortality in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

This retrospective study reviewed 679 patients with cirrhosis. Vitamin D deficiency was defined as serum 25-hydorxyvitamin D (25-OHD) levels < 20 ng/mL. The associations between 25-OHD and CHE, OHE occurrence, and mortality were assessed using logistic regression, Fine-Gray competing risk regression, and Cox proportional hazards regression models, respectively.

RESULTS

Of 428 eligible patients, 75% had vitamin D deficiency and 23% had CHE. The prevalence of CHE was higher in patients with vitamin D deficiency than in those without vitamin D deficiency (28% vs. 13%, p = 0.002). During the median follow-up period of 2.3 years, 14% of the patients developed OHE and 27% died. Patients with vitamin D deficiency had a higher incidence of OHE (p = 0.002) and mortality (p = 0.006) than those without vitamin D deficiency. After adjustment for potential covariates, multivariate analyses showed that 25-OHE was associated with CHE (odds ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91-0.99; p = 0.023), OHE occurrence (sub-distribution hazard ratio, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.86-0.98; p = 0.013) and mortality (hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.93-0.99; p = 0.020) in patients with cirrhosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Vitamin D deficiency is highly prevalent and is associated with CHE, OHE, and mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Evaluation of vitamin D is essential to predict the outcomes of patients with cirrhosis.

The Social, Demographic, and Clinical Predictors of COVID-19 Severity: a Model-based Analysis of United States Veterans

PURPOSE

This study aims to identify the contributions of individual and community social determinants of health (SDOH), demographic, and clinical factors in COVID-19 disease severity through a model-based analysis.

METHODS

This national cross-sectional study focused on hospitalization among those tested for COVID-19 and use of intensive care, analyzing data on 220,848 Veterans tested between February 20, 2020 and October 20, 2021. Multiple logistic regression models were constructed using backwards elimination. The predictive value of each model was assessed with a c-statistic.

RESULTS

Those hospitalized were older, more likely to be male, of Black or Asian race, have an income less than $39,999, live in an urban residence, and have medical comorbidities. The strongest predictors for hospitalization included Gini inequality index, race, income, heart failure, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). For intensive care, Asian race, rural residence, COPD, and CKD were the strongest predictors. C-statistics were c = 0.749 for hospitalization and c = 0.582 for ICU admission.

CONCLUSIONS

A combination of clinical, demographic, individual and community SDOH factors predict COVID-19 hospitalization with good predictive ability and can inform risk stratification, discharge planning, and public health interventions. Racial disparities were not explained by social or clinical factors. Intensive care models had low discriminative power and may be better explained by other characteristics.

A Clinician's Guide to Understanding Bias in Critical Clinical Prediction Models

This narrative review focuses on the role of clinical prediction models in supporting informed decision-making in critical care, emphasizing their 2 forms: traditional scores and artificial intelligence (AI)-based models. Acknowledging the potential for both types to embed biases, the authors underscore the importance of critical appraisal to increase our trust in models. The authors outline recommendations and critical care examples to manage risk of bias in AI models. The authors advocate for enhanced interdisciplinary training for clinicians, who are encouraged to explore various resources (books, journals, news Web sites, and social media) and events (Datathons) to deepen their understanding of risk of bias.

Serum immunoglobulin A levels: Diagnostic utility in alcoholic liver disease and association with liver fibrosis in steatotic liver disease

The relationship between immunoglobulin A (IgA) levels and chronic liver disease remains poorly understood. The present study evaluated the clinical significance of IgA in 478 new patients who visited the Outpatient Clinic of Nagasaki Harbor Medical Center (Nagasaki, Japan). Serum IgA levels in comparison to liver stiffness (LS), as measured using a FibroScan® device, were evaluated in 358 patients. Furthermore, in 270 patients, the associations between serum IgA levels and body composition were analyzed using computed tomography. The IgA levels of patients in the groups with Child-Pugh classification B and C (CPGBC), alcoholic liver disease (ALD), steatotic liver disease (SLD) or diabetes were higher than the IgA levels of patients in the groups with CPGA, non-ALD, non-SLD or no diabetes, respectively. Logistic regression analysis showed that CPGBC, ALD, high IgG (>1,700 mg/dl), high macrophage galactose-specific lectin-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) (>1 cut-off index) and diabetes were contributing factors for high serum IgA level (>410 mg/dl). The ratio of IgA level divided by IgG level was highest in patients with ALD, followed by those with metabolic dysfunction-associated SLD (MASLD) and non-SLD. In SLD, IgA level was associated more with LS than M2BPGi and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) in multiple regression analysis. In the receiver operating characteristic analysis, IgA level, M2BPG, and FIB-4 had similar area under the curve values for discriminating high LS (>8 kPa) from low LS (≤8 kPa) in SLD. IgA levels were also associated with visceral fat, and this association was only found in women. In conclusion, elevated IgA is an indicator of liver fibrosis that also reflects the presence of diabetes and an increased visceral fat level. Therefore, IgA is considered a useful marker of liver disease severity in the current era of increased SLD.

Comparison of lactate/albumin ratio and established scoring systems for predicting mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND

critically ill cirrhotic patients may present a serious clinical condition defined as acute-on-chronic liver failure with high mortality. While established scoring systems like Child-Pugh and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) offer prognostic insights, their limitations warrant exploration of alternative markers. The lactate/albumin ratio (LAR) serves as a potential prognostic indicator in critical care settings, yet its utility in cirrhotic patients remains underexplored.

METHODS

one hundred and seventy-five critically ill cirrhotic patients were assessed in this retrospective cohort study. Clinical severity scores, including Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), and Chronic Liver Failure-Organ Failure Score (CLIF-OF) were compared with LAR along with traditional liver failure scoring systems. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were used to evaluate prognostic performance.

RESULTS

Intensive Care Unit (ICU) nonsurvivors had significantly higher scores in all liver failure and clinical severity scores compared to survivors (p < 0.001). Median LAR was significantly higher in nonsurvivors (p < 0.001). ROC analysis revealed comparable prognostic accuracy between LAR, APACHE II, SOFA, and CLIF-OF scores in predicting ICU mortality. Logistic regression identified SOFA score at 48th hour, LAR, and requirement of mechanical ventilation as independent predictors of ICU mortality.

CONCLUSION

LAR demonstrates promising prognostic utility in predicting ICU mortality among critically ill cirrhotic patients, complementing established scoring systems. Early reassessment using SOFA score at 48th hour may guide therapeutic interventions and improve patient outcomes. Further prospective studies are warranted to validate these findings and optimize clinical management strategies.

Myosteatosis is closely associated with sarcopenia and significantly worse outcomes in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Sarcopenia and myosteatosis are common in patients with cirrhosis. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of these muscle changes, their interrelations and their prognostic impact over a 12-month period.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective multicentre study involving 433 patients. Sarcopenia and myosteatosis were evaluated using computed tomography scans. The 1-year cumulative incidence of relevant events was assessed by competing risk analysis. We used a Fine-Gray model adjusted for known prognostic factors to evaluate the impact of sarcopenia and myosteatosis on mortality, hospitalization, and liver decompensation.

RESULTS

At enrolment, 166 patients presented with isolated myosteatosis, 36 with isolated sarcopenia, 135 with combined sarcopenia and myosteatosis and 96 patients showed no muscle changes. The 1-year cumulative incidence of death in patients with either sarcopenia and myosteatosis (13.8%) or isolated myosteatosis (13.4%) was over twice that of patients without muscle changes (5.2%) or with isolated sarcopenia (5.6%). The adjusted sub-hazard ratio for death in patients with muscle changes was 1.36 (95% CI 0.99-1.86, p = 0.058). The cumulative incidence of hospitalization was significantly higher in patients with combined sarcopenia and myosteatosis than in patients without muscle changes (adjusted sub-hazard ratio 1.18, 95% CI 1.04-1.35). The cumulative incidence of liver decompensation was greater in patients with combined sarcopenia and myosteatosis (p = 0.018) and those with isolated sarcopenia (p = 0.046) than in patients without muscle changes. Lastly, we found a strong correlation of function tests and frailty scores with the presence of muscle changes.

CONCLUSIONS

Myosteatosis, whether alone or combined with sarcopenia, is highly prevalent in patients with cirrhosis and is associated with significantly worse outcomes. The prognostic role of sarcopenia should always be evaluated in relation to the presence of myosteatosis.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

This study investigates the prognostic role of muscle changes in patients with cirrhosis. The novelty of this study is its multicentre, prospective nature and the fact that it distinguishes between the impact of individual muscle changes and their combination on prognosis in cirrhosis. This study highlights the prognostic role of myosteatosis, especially when combined with sarcopenia. On the other hand, the relevance of sarcopenia could be mitigated when considered together with myosteatosis. The implication from these findings is that sarcopenia should never be evaluated individually and that myosteatosis may play a dominant role in the prognosis of patients with cirrhosis.

A personalised algorithm predicting the risk of intravenous corticosteroid failure in acute ulcerative colitis

BACKGROUND

An episode of acute ulcerative colitis (UC) represents an important watershed moment in a patient's disease course.

AIMS

To derive a personalised algorithm for identifying patients at high risk of corticosteroid non-response from variables available at hospital presentation using a large prospectively collected acute UC patient database and machine learning-based techniques.

METHODS

We analysed data from 682 consecutive presentations of acute UC. We used an Akaike information criterion-based elastic net model to select variables based on the 419 earliest presentations of acute UC (1996-2017). We constructed two risk-scoring algorithms, with and without utilising additional endoscopic variables, using logistic regression models. We validated these risk scores on separate cohorts of 181 (2018-2022) and 82 (2015-2022) acute UC presentations.

RESULTS

The partial risk of rescue (ROR) score included the admission indices of oral corticosteroid treatment, bowel frequency ≥6/24 h, albumin, CRP ≥12 mg/mL and log10CRP. The full ROR score incorporates the same variables with the addition of the Mayo endoscopic subscore and disease extent. The AUCs in the main validation cohort were 0.76 (95% CI: 0.69-0.83) and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.71-0.85) for the partial and full ROR scores, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

These pragmatic personalised risk scores (available at www.severecolitis.com) have comparably strong performance characteristics and usability enabling the identification of individuals at high risk of corticosteroid non-response before or after endoscopic assessment. The ROR scores have the potential to challenge conventional acute UC treatment paradigms by identifying patients who may benefit from early rescue therapy or participation in relevant clinical trials.

Development and validation of a scoring system for in-hospital mortality following band ligation in esophageal variceal bleeding

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to develop and validate a simple scoring system to predict in-hospital mortality after endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) for esophageal variceal bleeding.

METHODS

Data from a 13-year study involving 46 Japanese institutions were split into development (initial 7 years) and validation (last 6 years) cohorts. The study subjects were patients hospitalized for esophageal variceal bleeding and treated with EVL. Variable selection was performed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, targeting in-hospital all-cause mortality as the outcome. We developed the Hospital Outcome Prediction following Endoscopic Variceal Ligation (HOPE-EVL) score from β coefficients of multivariate logistic regression and assessed its discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

The study included 980 patients: 536 in the development cohort and 444 in the validation cohort. In-hospital mortality was 13.6% and 10.1% for the respective cohorts. The scoring system used five variables: systolic blood pressure (<80 mmHg: 2 points), Glasgow Coma Scale (≤12: 1 point), total bilirubin (≥5 mg/dL: 1 point), creatinine (≥1.5 mg/dL: 1 point), and albumin (<2.8 g/dL: 1 point). The risk groups (low: 0-1, middle: 2-3, high: ≥4) in the validation cohort corresponded to observed and predicted mortality probabilities of 2.0% and 2.5%, 19.0% and 22.9%, and 57.6% and 71.9%, respectively. In this cohort, the HOPE-EVL score demonstrated excellent discrimination ability (area under the curve [AUC] 0.890; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.850-0.930) compared with the Model for End-stage Liver Disease score (AUC 0.853; 95% CI 0.794-0.912) and the Child-Pugh score (AUC 0.798; 95% CI 0.727-0.869).

CONCLUSIONS

The HOPE-EVL score practically and effectively predicts in-hospital mortality. This score could facilitate the appropriate allocation of resources and effective communication with patients and their families.

Liver Fibrosis Leading to Cirrhosis: Basic Mechanisms and Clinical Perspectives

Liver fibrosis is the pathological deposition of extracellular matrix rich in fibrillar collagen within the hepatocytes in response to chronic liver injury due to various causes. As the condition advances, it can progress to cirrhosis, the late stages of which are irreversible. Multiple pathophysiological mechanisms and cell types are responsible for the progression of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. Hepatic stellate cells and myofibroblast activation represent a key event in fibrosis. Capillarization of liver sinusoidal endothelial cells further contributes to extracellular matrix deposition and an increase in portal pressure. Macrophages and neutrophils produce inflammatory cytokines and participate in activating hepatic stellate cells. Although initially believed to be irreversible, early stages of fibrosis are now found to be reversible. Furthermore, advances in noninvasive imaging and serum studies have changed and improved how cirrhosis can be evaluated and monitored. Although there are currently no specific approved therapies to reverse liver fibrosis, management of underlying diseases has been found to halt the progression, and to an extent, even reverse liver fibrosis, preventing further liver injury and cirrhosis-related complications.

Postoperative, but Not Preoperative, MELD-3.0 Prognosticates 3-Month Procedural Success in Patients Undergoing Orthotopic Heart Transplantation

Background/Objectives: Multi-organ failure (MOF) often complicates advanced heart failure (HF), contributing to a poor prognosis. The Model of End-Stage Liver Disease 3.0 (MELD-3.0) scale incorporates liver and kidney function parameters. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic significance of the MELD-3.0 score in patients with advanced HF who have undergone heart transplantation (HTx). Methods: The MELD-3.0 score was computed using the average values of the international normalized ratio and bilirubin, creatinine, sodium, and albumin levels during a hospital stay following HTx. The average MELD-3.0 scores from the period of 1 month preceding HTx and 1 week after HTx were analyzed. The primary endpoint of the study was the 6-month total mortality, and the secondary endpoint was ICU hospitalization time after HTx. Results: The analysis included 106 patients undergoing HTx, with a median age of 53 years (44-63), 81% of whom were male. Within 6 months post-HTx, 17 patients (16%) died; those patients had a higher 1-week post-HTx MELD-3.0 score of 18.3 (14.5-22.7) in comparison to survivors, whose average score was 13.9 (9.5-16.4), p < 0.01. There was no difference in MELD 3.0 score in the pre-HTx period: 16.6 (11.4-17.8) vs. 12.3 (8.6-17.1), p = 0.36. The post-HTx MELD-3.0 score independently predicted death: RR 1.17 (95% CI 1.05-1.30), p < 0.01. A Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) determined the cut-off value of the MELD-3.0 score as 17.3 (AUC = 0.83; sensitivity-67%; specificity-86%). Survivors with scores above this value had a longer ICU hospitalization time: 7 (5.0-11.0) vs. 12 (8-20) days (p = 0.01). Conclusions: The post-HTx MELD-3.0 score serves as an independent predictor of an unfavorable prognosis in patients with advanced HF undergoing HTx. The evaluation of MELD-3.0 scores provides additional prognostic information in this population.

Barriers and Strategies to Effective Serious Illness Communication for Patients with End-Stage Liver Disease in the Intensive Care Setting

Background: Patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) often require Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission during the disease trajectory, but aggressive medical treatment has not resulted in increased quality of life for patients or caregivers. Methods: This narrative review synthesizes relevant data thematically exploring the current state of serious illness communication in the ICU with identification of barriers and potential strategies to improve performance. We provide a conceptual model underscoring the importance of providing comprehensible disease and prognosis knowledge, eliciting patient values and aligning these values with available goals of care options through a series of discussions. Achieving effective serious illness communication supports the delivery of goal concordant care (care aligned with the patient's stated values) and improved quality of life. Results: General barriers to effective serious illness communication include lack of outpatient serious illness communication discussions; formalized provider training, literacy and culturally appropriate patient-directed serious illness communication tools; and unoptimized electronic health records. ESLD-specific barriers to effective serious illness communication include stigma, discussing the uncertainty of prognosis and provider discomfort with serious illness communication. Evidence-based strategies to address general barriers include using the Ask-Tell-Ask communication framework; clinician training to discuss patients' goals and expectations; PREPARE for Your Care literacy and culturally appropriate written and online tools for patients, caregivers, and clinicians; and standardization of documentation in the electronic health record. Evidence-based strategies to address ESLD-specific barriers include practicing with empathy; using the "Best-Case, Worst Case" prognostic framework; and developing interdisciplinary solutions in the ICU. Conclusion: Improving clinician training, providing patients and caregivers easy-to-understand communication tools, standardizing EHR documentation, and improving interdisciplinary communication, including palliative care, may increase goal concordant care and quality of life for critically ill patients with ESLD.

Liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma in elderly patients: does age matter?

BACKGROUND

Evaluation of the influence of the age of the patients upon the outcomes of liver resection (LR) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

HCC patients who underwent LR between 2010 and 2020 were analyzed. They were divided into 3 groups depending on the patient's age. Group I (patients less than 60 years), Group II (patients between 60 and 69 years), and Group III (patients equal to or more than 70 years).

RESULTS

364 patients were included. A significantly higher serum bilirubin and alpha feto-protein were noted in Group I and serum creatinine was noted in Group III. The study groups did not show any significant differences regarding HCC site, number, macrovascular invasion, the extent of LR, Pringle maneuver, and perioperative blood transfusions. Longer operation time was found in Groups II and III, while more blood loss was noted in Group (I) Group I patients had longer hospital stays. Higher postoperative morbidities were noted in both Group I and Group (II) Higher incidence of post-hepatectomy liver dysfunction was noted in Group I. More early mortalities were found in Group I, related to liver failure. We did not experience early mortality in Group (III) Late Mortalities occurred in 117 patients (32.1%). HCC recurrence occurred in 165 patients (45.3%). Regarding the overall- and tumor-free survival, we did not experience any significant differences among the 3 groups (Log Rank: p = 0.371 and 0.464 respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Curative LR can be safely performed in selected elderly patients with HCC. An advanced patient's age should not be considered as a contraindication for curative LR.

Validation of MELD 3.0 in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis using prospective KACLiF cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is a reliable prognostic tool for short-term outcome prediction in patients with end-stage liver disease. MELD 3.0 was introduced to enhance the predictive accuracy. This study assessed the performance of MELD 3.0, in comparison to MELD and MELD-Na, in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

This multicenter prospective cohort study comprised patients with alcoholic cirrhosis admitted for acute deterioration of liver function in the Republic of Korea between 2015 and 2019. This study compared the predictive abilities of MELD, MELD-Na, and MELD 3.0, for 30-day and 90-day outcomes, specifically death or liver transplantation, and explored the factors influencing these outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 1096 patients were included in the study, with a mean age of 53.3 ± 10.4 years, and 82.0% were male. The mean scores for MELD, MELD-Na, and MELD 3.0 at the time of admission were 18.7 ± 7.2, 20.6 ± 7.7, and 21.0 ± 7.8, respectively. At 30 and 90 days, 7.2% and 14.1% of patients experienced mortality or liver transplantation. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for MELD, MELD-Na, and MELD 3.0 at 30 days were 0.823, 0.820, and 0.828; and at 90 days were 0.765, 0.772, and 0.776, respectively. Factors associated with the 90-day outcome included concomitant chronic viral hepatitis, prolonged prothrombin time, elevated levels of aspartate transaminase, bilirubin, and creatinine, and low albumin levels.

CONCLUSION

MELD 3.0 demonstrated improved performance compared to previous models, although the differences were not statistically significant.

The future of liver transplantation

Over the last 50 years, liver transplantation has evolved into a procedure routinely performed in many countries worldwide. Those able to access this therapy frequently experience a miraculous risk-benefit ratio, particularly if they face the imminently life-threatening disease. Over the decades, the success of liver transplantation, with dramatic improvements in early posttransplant survival, has aggressively driven demand. However, despite the emergence of living donors to augment deceased donors as a source of organs, supply has lagged far behind demand. As a result, rationing has been an unfortunate focus in recent decades. Recent shifts in the epidemiology of liver disease combined with transformative innovations in liver preservation suggest that the underlying premise of organ shortage may erode in the foreseeable future. The focus will sharpen on improving equitable access while mitigating constraints related to workforce training, infrastructure for organ recovery and rehabilitation, and their associated costs. Research efforts in liver preservation will undoubtedly blossom with the aim of optimizing both the timing and conditions of transplantation. Coupled with advances in genetic engineering, regenerative biology, and cellular therapies, the portfolio of innovation, both broad and deep, offers the promise that, in the future, liver transplantation will not only be broadly available to those in need but also represent a highly durable life-saving therapy.

Safety and efficacy of off-label bulevirtide monotherapy in patients with HDV with decompensated Child-B cirrhosis-A real-world case series

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Chronic hepatitis D is the most debilitating form of viral hepatitis frequently progressing to cirrhosis and subsequent decompensation. However, the HDV entry inhibitor bulevirtide is only approved for antiviral treatment of patients with compensated disease. We aimed for the analysis of real-world data on the off-label use of bulevirtide in the setting of decompensated liver cirrhosis.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We conducted a retrospective study in patients with HDV with decompensated liver disease at German, Austrian, and Italian centers. We included 19 patients (47% male, mean age: 51 years) with liver cirrhosis Child-Pugh B. The median MELD score was 12 (range 9-17) at treatment initiation. The median observation period was 41 weeks. Virologic response was achieved in 74% and normal alanine aminotransferase was observed in 74%. The combined response was achieved by 42%. The most relevant adverse events included self-limited alanine aminotransferase flares, an asymptomatic increase in bile acids, and the need for liver transplantation. Despite bile acid increases, adverse events were considered unrelated. Clinical and laboratory improvement from Child-Pugh B to A occurred in 47% (n = 9/19). Improvements in the amount of ascites were observed in 58% of the patients initially presenting with ascites (n = 7/12).

CONCLUSIONS

This report on off-label bulevirtide treatment in patients with decompensated HDV cirrhosis shows similar virologic and biochemical response rates as observed in compensated liver disease. Significant improvements were observed in surrogates of hepatic function and portal hypertension. However, this improvement was not seen in all patients. Controlled trials are needed to confirm the safety and efficacy of bulevirtide in decompensated HDV cirrhosis.

Hyponatremia Prevalence in Decompensated Chronic Liver Disease: Insights from a Tertiary Care Hospital

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis is a prominent global contributor to mortality, and hyponatremia is a common complication in patients with decompensated chronic liver disease (DCLD). Hyponatremia is characterized by kidney impairment when eliminating solute-free water. The presence of contradictory findings in existing literature prompted this study.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of hyponatremia in patients with DCLDs presenting at a tertiary care hospital.

METHODOLOGY

 This six-month cross-sectional study was performed at the Allied Institute of Medical Sciences Teaching Hospital in Gujranwala, Pakistan, from January 2022 to June 2022. A total of 133 patients were selected as subjects. Researchers took blood samples from these patients and sent the samples to the hospital pathology lab for evaluation of serum sodium levels. If sodium levels were ≤130 mmol/L, the patient was considered to have hyponatremia. All information was recorded on proforma.

RESULTS

 The mean age of patients was 47.68 ± 12.89 years. Overall, 80 (60.15%) were male, and 53 (39.85%) female. The mean BMI of patients was 23.20 ± 3.11 kg/m2 and the average duration of DCLD was 7.24 ± 4.12 years. Among participants, 48 (36.09%) patients had hyponatremia, whereas 85 (63.91%) did not have hyponatremia. The mean sodium level was 132.39 ± 11.37 mEq/L. Stratified analysis based on patient age revealed that among patients aged 21-45 years, 27 (45.8%) had hyponatremia, whereas, in the group aged 46-70 years, 21 (28.4%) had hyponatremia with a p-value < 0.05. Stratification of the basis of BMI, among underweight patients, all eight (100%) had hyponatremia, whereas of overweight patients, 14 (31.1%) had hyponatremia. This difference was statistically significant (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of hyponatremia was notably elevated among individuals suffering from DCLD. Age and BMI were the most common risk factors for hyponatremia among subjects with DCLD. This study recommends that patients with DCLD should have their serum sodium levels screened at regular intervals to prevent complications, including encephalopathy, which occurs particularly in younger and underweight DCLD patients.

Viability assessment and transplantation of extended criteria donor liver grafts using normothermic machine perfusion

BACKGROUND

The scarcity of available liver grafts necessitates the use of organs from extended criteria donors, a practice associated with an increased risk of graft failure. A notable percentage of deceased donor liver allografts are rejected due to subjective criteria. Normothermic machine perfusion holds promise for introducing objective parameters into this decision-making process. The aim of this study was to compare the outcomes of standard criteria and extended criteria donor allografts after liver transplantation, following viability assessment, using normothermic machine perfusion.

METHODS

Liver allografts preserved by normothermic machine perfusion before liver transplantation at the University Hospital of Münster were retrospectively analyzed. Organs were stratified according to the Eurotransplant Donor Risk Index. In total, 101 liver grafts were included in this study and divided into 2 groups: (1) standard criteria donors with a Donor Risk Index <1.8 (DRI-low) and (2) extended criteria donors with a Donor Risk Index ≥1.8 (DRI-high).

RESULTS

An increased risk profile of donor livers, as assessed by the Eurotransplant Donor Risk Index, did not correlate with patient or graft survival. High-risk liver grafts were effectively transplanted into recipients with different risk levels after viability assessment by normothermic machine perfusion. However, the recipients' model for end-stage liver disease scores showed a significant association with both overall patient and graft survival.

CONCLUSION

The use of normothermic machine perfusion for viability assessment allows safe transplantation of high-risk donor livers and effectively addresses the disparity between donor liver availability and transplantation demand.

Palliative care and end stage liver disease: A cohort analysis of palliative care use and factors associated with referral

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Prevalence and mortality of chronic liver disease have risen significantly. In end stage liver disease, the survival of patients is approximately two years. Despite the poor prognosis and high symptom burden of these patients, integration of palliative care is limited. We aim to assess associated factors and trends in palliative care use in recent years.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A Multicenter retrospective cohort of patients with end stage liver disease who suffered in-hospital mortality between 2017 and 2019. Information regarding patient demographics, hospital characteristics, comorbidities, etiology, decompensations, and interventions was collected. Two-sided tests and logistic regression analysis were used to identify factors associated with palliative care use.

RESULTS

A total of 201 patients were analyzed, with a yearly increase in palliative care consultation: 26.7 % in 2017 to 38.3 % in 2019. Patients in palliative care were older (65.72 ± 11.70 vs. 62.10 ± 11.44; p = 0.003), had a lower Karnofsky functionality scale (χ=18.104; p = 0.000) and had higher rates of hepatic encephalopathy (32.1 % vs. 17.4 %, p = 0.007) and hepatocarcinoma (61.7 % vs. 26.2 %; p = 0.000). No differences were found for Model for End-stage Liver Disease (19.28 ± 6.60 vs. 19,90 ± 5.78; p = 0.507) or Child-Pugh scores (p = 0.739). None of the patients who die in the intensive care unit receive palliative care (0 % vs 31.6 %; p = 0.000). Half of the palliative care consultations occurred 6,5 days before death.

CONCLUSIONS

Palliative care use differs based on demographics, disease complications, and severity. Despite its increasing implementation, palliative care intervention occurs late. Future investigations should identify approaches to achieve an earlier and concurrent care model.

Bone Marrow and Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cell Phenotype Changes after Cultivation and Autologous Infusion in Patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis

Background

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a condition affecting the liver and immune system. In this study, the impact of autologous bone marrow-derived mononuclear cell (BM-MNC) transplantation on PBC patients was investigated.

Methods

Sixteen eligible PBC patients participated at the National Scientific Medical Center in Astana, Kazakhstan, between 2017 and 2022, and BM-MNCs were harvested from their anterior iliac crest. After isolating and cultivating the BM-MNCs, they were infused back into the patient's peripheral veins. Changes in BM-MNC and peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PB-MNC) phenotypes were assessed before and after a 24-hour cultivation period and 72 hours post-transplantation. We monitored liver function parameters over 6-month intervals and conducted flow cytometry analysis to assess CD markers on BM-MNCs before and after cultivation and PB-MNCs before and after transplantation. Statistical analysis included the Friedman test for liver parameters and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test for BM-MNC and PB-MNC comparisons.

Results

Our findings revealed significant reductions in liver function tests after multiple transplantations. Flow cytometry analysis before and after a 24-hour culture and autologous BM-MNC infusion revealed the expansion of specific cell populations, with significant increases in CD3+, CD4+, CD16+, CD20+, CD25+, CD34+, CD105+, CD73+, СD117+, and CD34+populations, while CD4+25+, CD34+105+, and CD4+FOXP3+ populations decreased. Interestingly, a contradictory finding was observed with a decrease in bone marrow CD34+105+ cell lines (P=0.03) alongside an increase in peripheral CD34+105+ population (P=0.03).

Conclusion

In summary, our study shows that BM-MNC transplantation in PBC patients leads to changes in immune cell populations and liver function. These findings suggest potential therapeutic applications of BM-MNC transplantation in managing PBC and offer insights into the dynamics of immune cells associated with this treatment approach.

Designing clinical trials to address alcohol use and alcohol-associated liver disease: an expert panel Consensus Statement

Most patients with alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) engage in heavy drinking defined as 4 or more drinks per day (56 g) or 8 (112 g) or more drinks per week for women and 5 or more drinks per day (70 g) or 15 (210 g) or more drinks per week for men. Although abstinence from alcohol after diagnosis of ALD improves life expectancy and reduces the risk of decompensation of liver disease, few studies have evaluated whether treatment of alcohol use disorders will reduce progression of liver disease and improve liver-related outcomes. In November 2021, the National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism commissioned a task force that included hepatologists, addiction medicine specialists, statisticians, clinical trialists and members of regulatory agencies to develop recommendations for the design and conduct of clinical trials to evaluate the effect of alcohol use, particularly treatment to reduce or eliminate alcohol use in patients with ALD. The task force conducted extensive reviews of relevant literature on alcohol use disorders and ALD. Findings were presented at one in-person meeting and discussed over the next 16 months to develop the final recommendations. As few clinical trials directly address this topic, the 28 recommendations approved by all members of the task force represent a consensus of expert opinions.

Machine Learning Models for Predicting Mortality in Patients with Cirrhosis and Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding at an Emergency Department: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis is a major global cause of mortality, and upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding significantly increases the mortality risk in these patients. Although scoring systems such as the Child-Pugh score and the Model for End-stage Liver Disease evaluate the severity of cirrhosis, none of these systems specifically target the risk of mortality in patients with upper GI bleeding. In this study, we constructed machine learning (ML) models for predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis and upper GI bleeding, particularly in emergency settings, to achieve early intervention and improve outcomes.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, we analyzed the electronic health records of adult patients with cirrhosis who presented at an emergency department (ED) with GI bleeding between 2001 and 2019. Data were divided into training and testing sets at a ratio of 90:10. The ability of three ML models-a linear regression model, an XGBoost (XGB) model, and a three-layer neural network model-to predict mortality in the patients was evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 16,025 patients with cirrhosis and 32,826 ED visits for upper GI bleeding were included in the study. The in-hospital and ED mortality rates were 11.2% and 2.2%, respectively. The XGB model exhibited the highest performance in predicting both in-hospital and ED mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.866 and 0.861, respectively). International normalized ratio, renal function, red blood cell distribution width, age, and white blood cell count were the strongest predictors in all the ML models. The median ED length of stay for the ED mortality group was 17.54 h (7.16-40.01 h).

CONCLUSIONS

ML models can be used to predict mortality in patients with cirrhosis and upper GI bleeding. Of the three models, the XGB model exhibits the highest performance. Further research is required to determine the actual efficacy of our ML models in clinical settings.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of biomarkers predicting decompensation in patients with compensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The transition from compensated to decompensated cirrhosis is crucial, drastically reducing prognosis from a median survival of over 10 years to 2 years. There is currently an unmet need to accurately predict decompensation. We systematically reviewed and meta-analysed data regarding biomarker use to predict decompensation in individuals with compensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

PubMed and EMBASE database searches were conducted for all studies from inception until February 2024. The study was carried out according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The Quality of Prognosis Studies framework was used to assess the risk of bias. The meta-analysis was conducted with a random effects model using STATA software.

RESULTS

Of the 652 studies initially identified, 63 studies (n=31 438 patients) were included in the final review, examining 49 biomarkers. 25 studies (40%) were prospective with the majority of studies looking at all-cause decompensation (90%). The most well-studied biomarkers were platelets (n=17), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (n=17) and albumin (n=16). A meta-analysis revealed elevated international normalised ratio was the strongest predictor of decompensation, followed by decreased albumin. However, high statistical heterogeneity was noted (l2 result of 96.3%). Furthermore, 21 studies were assessed as having a low risk of bias (34%), 26 (41%) moderate risk and 16 (25%) high risk.

CONCLUSIONS

This review highlights key biomarkers that should potentially be incorporated into future scoring systems to predict decompensation. However, future biomarker studies should be conducted with rigorous and standardised methodology to ensure robust and comparable data.

Impact of pre-sarcopenia on outcomes of transarterial chemoembolization in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma

Sarcopenia's impact on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) outcomes is well-documented, but the effects of pre-sarcopenia remain unclear. This study investigates the impact of pre-sarcopenia on tumor response and survival in patients with unresectable HCC undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). We retrospectively evaluated muscle volume using the SliceOmatic software in patients with unresectable HCC treated with TACE. Pre-sarcopenia was defined by Japan Society of Hepatology standards (men: 42 cm2/m2; women: 38 cm2/m2). Pre-sarcopenia and non-pre-sarcopenia groups were compared, and Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify survival-influencing variables. Subgroup analysis was conducted stratified by the tumor burden, using serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels at a diagnostic cutoff value of 200 ng/mL. Of the 100 patients, 39 had pre-sarcopenia. The presence of pre-sarcopenia was not associated with tumor complete response achievement. The median overall survival (OS) was significantly lower in the pre-sarcopenia group (18 months) than in the non-pre-sarcopenia group (30 months; log-rank P = 0.039). Subgroup analysis among 77 patients with AFP < 200 ng/mL revealed that OS was particularly poor in the pre-sarcopenia group (16 vs. 34 months; log-rank P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis identified increased AFP (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] per 10-unit increase 1.142; P < 0.001), higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (adjusted HR per 1-unit increase 1.176; P < 0.001), and pre-sarcopenia (adjusted HR 2.965; P < 0.001) as predictors of shorter OS. Pre-sarcopenia is a significant predictor of increased mortality in patients with unresectable HCC undergoing TACE, especially in those with AFP < 200 ng/mL, suggesting its potential as a target for early intervention.

A retrospective study investigating the risk of graft loss in living donor liver transplant cases where size mismatching is predicted from graft-to-recipient weight ratio

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) is vital for pediatric end-stage liver disease due to organ shortages. The graft-to-recipient weight ratio (GRWR) preoperatively measured predicts the outcomes of LDLT. We typically target between 0.8 and 3.0-4.0%, but the ideal GRWR remains controversial. We compared the outcomes of LDLT according to the GRWR to examine whether the criteria could be expanded while ensuring safety.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 99 patients who underwent LDLT in our department by dividing them into three groups according to their GRWR: Group S, with GRWR values lower than the normal range (GRWR < 0.8%); Group M, with GRWR values in the normal range (GRWR ≥ 0.8 to < 3.5%); and Group L, with GRWR values above the normal range (GRWR ≥ 3.5%).

RESULTS

In Groups S and L, 46.2 and 44.4% of patients underwent splenectomy and delayed abdominal wall closure, respectively. After these intraoperative adjustments, there were no significant differences between the groups in 5-year patient survival, 5-year graft survival, or the occurrence of post-transplantation thrombosis.

CONCLUSION

When the GRWR is beyond the normal threshold, the risk of complications associated with graft size might be reduced by adjustments to provide appropriate portal blood flow and by delayed abdominal wall closure.

Artificial Intelligence in Pediatric Liver Transplantation: Opportunities and Challenges of a New Era

Historically, pediatric liver transplantation has achieved significant milestones, yet recent innovations have predominantly occurred in adult liver transplantation due to higher caseloads and ethical barriers in pediatric studies. Emerging methods subsumed under the term artificial intelligence offer the potential to revolutionize data analysis in pediatric liver transplantation by handling complex datasets without the need for interventional studies, making them particularly suitable for pediatric research. This review provides an overview of artificial intelligence applications in pediatric liver transplantation. Despite some promising early results, artificial intelligence is still in its infancy in the field of pediatric liver transplantation, and its clinical implementation faces several challenges. These include the need for high-quality, large-scale data and ensuring the interpretability and transparency of machine and deep learning models. Ethical considerations, such as data privacy and the potential for bias, must also be addressed. Future directions for artificial intelligence in pediatric liver transplantation include improving donor-recipient matching, managing long-term complications, and integrating diverse data sources to enhance predictive accuracy. Moreover, multicenter collaborations and prospective studies are essential for validating artificial intelligence models and ensuring their generalizability. If successfully integrated, artificial intelligence could lead to substantial improvements in patient outcomes, bringing pediatric liver transplantation again to the forefront of innovation in the transplantation community.