One-inflation and unobserved heterogeneity in population size estimation by Ryan T. Godwin

Semiparametric empirical likelihood inference for abundance from one-inflated capture-recapture data

Abundance estimation from capture-recapture data is of great importance in many disciplines. Analysis of capture-recapture data is often complicated by the existence of one-inflation and heterogeneity problems. Simultaneously taking these issues into account, existing abundance estimation methods are usually constructed on the basis of conditional likelihood under one-inflated zero-truncated count models. However, the resulting Horvitz-Thompson-type estimators may be unstable, and the resulting Wald-type confidence intervals may exhibit severe undercoverage. In this paper, we propose a semiparametric empirical likelihood (EL) approach to abundance estimation under one-inflated binomial and Poisson regression models. To facilitate the computation of the EL method, we develop an expectation-maximization algorithm. We also propose a new score test for the existence of one-inflation and prove its asymptotic normality. Our simulation studies indicate that compared with existing estimators, the proposed score test is more powerful and the maximum EL estimator has a smaller mean square error. The advantages of our approaches are further demonstrated by analyses of prinia data from Hong Kong and drug user data from Bangkok.