Performance of individual and joint risk stratification by an environmental risk score and a genetic risk score in a colorectal cancer screening setting

Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment and Precision Approaches to Screening: Brave New World or Worlds Apart?

Current colorectal cancer (CRC) screening recommendations take a "one-size-fits-all" approach using age as the major criterion to initiate screening. Precision screening that incorporates factors beyond age to risk stratify individuals could improve on current approaches and optimally use available resources with benefits for patients, providers, and health care systems. Prediction models could identify high-risk groups who would benefit from more intensive screening, while low-risk groups could be recommended less intensive screening incorporating noninvasive screening modalities. In addition to age, prediction models incorporate well-established risk factors such as genetics (eg, family CRC history, germline, and polygenic risk scores), lifestyle (eg, smoking, alcohol, diet, and physical inactivity), sex, and race and ethnicity among others. Although several risk prediction models have been validated, few have been systematically studied for risk-adapted population CRC screening. In order to envisage clinical implementation of precision screening in the future, it will be critical to develop reliable and accurate prediction models that apply to all individuals in a population; prospectively study risk-adapted CRC screening on the population level; garner acceptance from patients and providers; and assess feasibility, resources, cost, and cost-effectiveness of these new paradigms. This review evaluates the current state of risk prediction modeling and provides a roadmap for future implementation of precision CRC screening.

Serum protein profiling of lung, pancreatic, and colorectal cancers reveals alcohol consumption-mediated disruptions in early-stage cancer detection

While the link between serum proteins and cancer has been studied in an effort to enable early-stage cancer detection, factors that might perturb this link has been poorly understood. To ask this question, we performed serum protein profiling on a prospective cohort of 601 individuals with or without lung, pancreatic, or colorectal cancers and identified ten distinct serum protein signatures with distinct link to the patient metadata. Importantly, we discovered that a positive history of alcohol consumption is a major factor that diminishes the sensitivity of serum protein-mediated liquid biopsy in early-stage malignancies, resulting in a 44% decline in the sensitivity of detecting American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage I malignancies. Our data provide evidence that patient lifestyle can affect the sensitivity of liquid biopsy and suggest the potential need for abstinence from alcohol before measurement during serum protein-based cancer screening.

Predictive Value of Genetic Risk Scores in the Development of Colorectal Adenomas

INTRODUCTION

Unlike colorectal cancer (CRC), few studies have explored the predictive value of genetic risk scores (GRS) in the development of colorectal adenomas (CRA), either alone or in combination with other demographic and clinical factors.

METHODS

In this study, genomic DNA from 613 Spanish Caucasian patients with CRA and 829 polyp-free individuals was genotyped for 88 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with CRC risk using the MassArray™ (Sequenom) platform. After applying a multivariate logistic regression model, five SNPs were selected to calculate the GRS. Regression models adjusted by sex, age, family history of CRC, chronic use of NSAIDs, low-dose ASA, and consumption of tobacco were built in order to study the association between GRS and CRA risk. We evaluated the discriminatory capacity using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The interactions between demographic information and GRS were also analyzed.

RESULTS

Significant associations between high GRS values and risk of CRA for analyzed models were observed. In particular, patients with higher GRS values had 2.3-2.6-fold increase in risk of CRA compared to patients with middle values. Combining sex and age with the GRS significantly increased the discriminatory accuracy of the univariate model with GRS alone. The best model achieved an AUC value of 0.665 (95% CI: 0.63-0.69). The GRS showed a different behavior depending on sex and age.

CONCLUSION

Our findings showed that, besides sex and age, GRS is an important risk factor for development of CRA and may be useful for CRC risk stratification and adaptation of screening programs.

Validation of a multi-ancestry polygenic risk score and age-specific risks of prostate cancer: A meta-analysis within diverse populations

Background

We recently developed a multi-ancestry polygenic risk score (PRS) that effectively stratifies prostate cancer risk across populations. In this study, we validated the performance of the PRS in the multi-ancestry Million Veteran Program and additional independent studies.

Methods

Within each ancestry population, the association of PRS with prostate cancer risk was evaluated separately in each case-control study and then combined in a fixed-effects inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis. We further assessed the effect modification by age and estimated the age-specific absolute risk of prostate cancer for each ancestry population.

Results

The PRS was evaluated in 31,925 cases and 490,507 controls, including men from European (22,049 cases, 414,249 controls), African (8794 cases, 55,657 controls), and Hispanic (1082 cases, 20,601 controls) populations. Comparing men in the top decile (90-100% of the PRS) to the average 40-60% PRS category, the prostate cancer odds ratio (OR) was 3.8-fold in European ancestry men (95% CI = 3.62-3.96), 2.8-fold in African ancestry men (95% CI = 2.59-3.03), and 3.2-fold in Hispanic men (95% CI = 2.64-3.92). The PRS did not discriminate risk of aggressive versus nonaggressive prostate cancer. However, the OR diminished with advancing age (European ancestry men in the top decile: ≤55 years, OR = 7.11; 55-60 years, OR = 4.26; >70 years, OR = 2.79). Men in the top PRS decile reached 5% absolute prostate cancer risk ~10 years younger than men in the 40-60% PRS category.

Conclusions

Our findings validate the multi-ancestry PRS as an effective prostate cancer risk stratification tool across populations. A clinical study of PRS is warranted to determine whether the PRS could be used for risk-stratified screening and early detection.

Funding

This work was supported by the National Cancer Institute at the National Institutes of Health (grant numbers U19 CA214253 to C.A.H., U01 CA257328 to C.A.H., U19 CA148537 to C.A.H., R01 CA165862 to C.A.H., K99 CA246063 to B.F.D, and T32CA229110 to F.C), the Prostate Cancer Foundation (grants 21YOUN11 to B.F.D. and 20CHAS03 to C.A.H.), the Achievement Rewards for College Scientists Foundation Los Angeles Founder Chapter to B.F.D, and the Million Veteran Program-MVP017. This research has been conducted using the UK Biobank Resource under application number 42195. This research is based on data from the Million Veteran Program, Office of Research and Development, and the Veterans Health Administration. This publication does not represent the views of the Department of Veteran Affairs or the United States Government.

Evaluating the Potential of Polygenic Risk Score to Improve Colorectal Cancer Screening

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer has high incidence and associated mortality worldwide. Screening programs are recommended for men and women over 50. Intermediate screens such as fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) select patients for colonoscopy with suboptimal sensitivity. Additional biomarkers could improve the current scenario.

METHODS

We included 2,893 individuals with a positive FIT test. They were classified as cases when a high-risk lesion for colorectal cancer was detected after colonoscopy, whereas the control group comprised individuals with low-risk or no lesions. 65 colorectal cancer risk genetic variants were genotyped. Polygenic risk score (PRS) and additive models for risk prediction incorporating sex, age, FIT value, and PRS were generated.

RESULTS

Risk score was higher in cases compared with controls [per allele OR = 1.04; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02-1.06; P < 0.0001]. A 2-fold increase in colorectal cancer risk was observed for subjects in the highest decile of risk alleles (≥65), compared with those in the first decile (≤54; OR = 2.22; 95% CI, 1.59-3.12; P < 0.0001). The model combining sex, age, FIT value, and PRS reached the highest accuracy for identifying patients with a high-risk lesion [cross-validated area under the ROC curve (AUROC): 0.64; 95% CI, 0.62-0.66].

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first investigation analyzing PRS in a two-step colorectal cancer screening program. PRS could improve current colorectal cancer screening, most likely for higher at-risk subgroups. However, its capacity is limited to predict colorectal cancer risk status and should be complemented by additional biomarkers.

IMPACT

PRS has capacity for risk stratification of colorectal cancer suggesting its potential for optimizing screening strategies alongside with other biomarkers.

A scoping review of risk-stratified bowel screening: current evidence, future directions

PURPOSE

In this scoping review, we examined the international literature on risk-stratified bowel screening to develop recommendations for future research, practice and policy.

METHODS

Six electronic databases were searched from inception to 18 October 2021: Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Forward and backwards citation searches were also undertaken. All relevant literature were included.

RESULTS

After de-deduplication, 3,629 records remained. 3,416 were excluded at the title/abstract screening stage. A further 111 were excluded at full-text screening stage. In total, 102 unique studies were included. Results showed that risk-stratified bowel screening programmes can potentially improve diagnostic performance, but there is a lack of information on longer-term outcomes. Risk models do appear to show promise in refining existing risk stratification guidelines but most were not externally validated and less than half achieved good discriminatory power. Risk assessment tools in primary care have the potential for high levels of acceptability and uptake, and therefore, could form an important component of future risk-stratified bowel screening programmes, but sometimes the screening recommendations were not adhered to by the patient or healthcare provider. The review identified important knowledge gaps, most notably in the area of organisation of screening services due to few pilots, and what risk stratification might mean for inequalities.

CONCLUSION

We recommend that future research focuses on what organisational challenges risk-stratified bowel screening may face and a consideration of inequalities in any changes to organised bowel screening programmes.

Polygenic risk prediction models for colorectal cancer: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Risk prediction models incorporating single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) could lead to individualized prevention of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, the added value of incorporating SNPs into models with only traditional risk factors is still not clear. Hence, our primary aim was to summarize literature on risk prediction models including genetic variants for CRC, while our secondary aim was to evaluate the improvement of discriminatory accuracy when adding SNPs to a prediction model with only traditional risk factors.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review on prediction models incorporating multiple SNPs for CRC risk prediction. We tested whether a significant trend in the increase of Area Under Curve (AUC) according to the number of SNPs could be observed, and estimated the correlation between AUC improvement and number of SNPs. We estimated pooled AUC improvement for SNP-enhanced models compared with non-SNP-enhanced models using random effects meta-analysis, and conducted meta-regression to investigate the association of specific factors with AUC improvement.

RESULTS

We included 33 studies, 78.79% using genetic risk scores to combine genetic data. We found no significant trend in AUC improvement according to the number of SNPs (p for trend = 0.774), and no correlation between the number of SNPs and AUC improvement (p = 0.695). Pooled AUC improvement was 0.040 (95% CI: 0.035, 0.045), and the number of cases in the study and the AUC of the starting model were inversely associated with AUC improvement obtained when adding SNPs to a prediction model. In addition, models constructed in Asian individuals achieved better AUC improvement with the incorporation of SNPs compared with those developed among individuals of European ancestry.

CONCLUSIONS

Though not conclusive, our results provide insights on factors influencing discriminatory accuracy of SNP-enhanced models. Genetic variants might be useful to inform stratified CRC screening in the future, but further research is needed.

Using the optimal method-explained variance weighted genetic risk score to predict the efficacy of folic acid therapy to hyperhomocysteinemia

BACKGROUND

Genetic risk score (GRS) is a useful way to explore genetic architectures and the relationships of complex diseases. Several studies had revealed many single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with the efficacy of folic acid treatment to hyperhomocysteinemia (HHcy).

METHODS

We aimed to construct and screen out the optimal predictive model based on four GRSs and traditional risk factors. Four GRSs enrolled four SNPs (MTHFR rs1801131, MTHFR rs1801133, MTRR rs1801394, BHMT rs3733890) were presented as follows: (a) simple count genetic risk score (SC-GRS), (b) direct logistic regression genetic risk score (DL-GRS), (c) polygenic genetic risk score (PG-GRS), and (d) explained variance weighted genetic risk score (EV-GRS). We performed a prospective cohort study including 638 HHcy patients. Then we evaluated the associations of four GRSs with folic acid's efficacy and the performance of four GRSs.

RESULTS

Four GRSs were independently associated with efficacy of treatment (p < 0.05). When combining GRSs with traditional risk factors, the AUC of the four models were all above 0.900 in the training set (Tradition + SC-GRS: 0.909, Tradition + DL-GRS: 0.909, Tradition + PG-GRS: 0.904, Tradition + EV-GRS: 0.910). And EV-GRS got the highest AUC. When evaluating the models in the testing set, we got the same conclusion that EV-GRS was optimal among four GRSs with the highest AUC (0.878) and the highest increase of AUC (0.008).

CONCLUSION

A more precise predictive model combing the optimal GRS with traditional risk factors was constructed to predict the efficacy of folic acid therapy to HHcy.

OUP accepted manuscript

Background

The uptake of colonoscopy is low in individuals at risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We constructed a risk-prediction score (RPS) in a large community-based sample at high risk of CRC to enable more accurate risk stratification and to motivate and increase the uptake rate of colonoscopy.

Methods

A total of 12,628 participants classified as high-risk according to positivity of immunochemical fecal occult blood tests or High-Risk Factor Questionnaire underwent colonoscopy. Logistic regression was used to derive a RPS and analysed the associations of the RPS with colorectal lesions, giving odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

Of the participants, men (OR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.58–1.90), older age (≥65 years; 1.41, 1.31–1.53), higher body mass index (≥28 kg/m²; 1.22, 1.07–1.39), ever smoking (1.47, 1.31–1.65), and weekly alcohol use (1.28, 1.09–1.52) were associated with a higher risk of colorectal lesions. We assigned 1 point to each of the above five risk factors and derived a RPS ranging from 0 to 5, with a higher score indicating a higher risk. Compared with a RPS of 0, a RPS of 1, 2, 3, and 4–5 showed a higher risk of colorectal lesions, with the OR (95% CI) being 1.50 (1.37–1.63), 2.34 (2.12–2.59), 3.58 (3.13–4.10), and 3.91 (3.00–5.10), respectively. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of RPS in predicting colorectal lesions was 0.62.

Conclusions

Participants with an increase in the RPS of ≥1 point had a significantly higher risk of colorectal lesions, suggesting the urgency for measuring colonoscopy in this very high-risk group. High-risk strategies incorporating RPS may be employed to achieve a higher colonoscopy-uptake rate.

Polygenic risk score across distinct colorectal cancer screening outcomes: from premalignant polyps to colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Different risk-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening strategies, such as the use of polygenic risk scores (PRS), have been evaluated to improve effectiveness of these programs. However, few studies have previously assessed its usefulness in a fecal immunochemical test (FIT)-based screening study.

METHODS

A PRS of 133 single nucleotide polymorphisms was assessed for 3619 participants: population controls, screening controls, low-risk lesions (LRL), intermediate-risk (IRL), high-risk (HRL), CRC screening program cases, and clinically diagnosed CRC cases. The PRS was compared between the subset of cases (n = 648; IRL+HRL+CRC) and controls (n = 956; controls+LRL) recruited within a FIT-based screening program. Positive predictive values (PPV), negative predictive values (NPV), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (aROC) were estimated using cross-validation.

RESULTS

The overall PRS range was 110-156. PRS values increased along the CRC tumorigenesis pathway (Mann-Kendall P value 0.007). Within the screening subset, the PRS ranged 110-151 and was associated with higher risk-lesions and CRC risk (OR_D10vsD1 1.92, 95% CI 1.22-3.03). The cross-validated aROC of the PRS for cases and controls was 0.56 (95% CI 0.53-0.59). Discrimination was equal when restricted to positive FIT (aROC 0.56), but lower among negative FIT (aROC 0.55). The overall PPV among positive FIT was 0.48. PPV were dependent on the number of risk alleles for positive FIT (PPVp10-p90 0.48-0.57).

CONCLUSIONS

PRS plays an important role along the CRC tumorigenesis pathway; however, in practice, its utility to stratify the general population or as a second test after a FIT positive result is still doubtful. Currently, PRS is not able to safely stratify the general population since the improvement on PPV values is scarce.

Genetic ancestry differences in pediatric asthma readmission are mediated by socioenvironmental factors

BACKGROUND

Social and financial hardships, combined with disease managment and environmental factors explain approximately 80% of the observed disparity in asthma-related readmissions between Black and White children.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to determine whether asthma-related readmissions differed by degree of African ancestry and the extent to which such an association would also be explained by socioenvironmental risk factors.

METHODS

This study used data from a prospective cohort study of 695 Black and White children aged 1 to 16 years with an asthma-related admission. The primary outcome was a similar readmission within 12 months. Each subject's African ancestry was determined by single nucleotide polymorphisms on a continuous scale ranging from 0 to 1 (0 = no African ancestry; 1 = 100% African ancestry). We also assessed 37 social, environmental, and clinical variables that we clustered into 6 domains (for example, hardship, disease management). Survival and mediation analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 134 children (19.3%) were readmitted within 12 months. Higher African ancestry was associated with asthma readmission (odds ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.18 for every 10% increase in African ancestry) with adjustment for age and gender. The association between African ancestry and readmission was mediated by hardship (sβ = 3.42, P < .001) and disease management (sβ = 0.046, P = .001), accounting for >50% of African ancestry's effect on readmission. African ancestry was no longer significantly associated with readmission (sβ = 0.035, P = .388) after accounting for these mediators.

CONCLUSIONS

African ancestry was strongly associated with readmission, and the association was mediated by family hardship and disease management. These results are consistent with the notion that asthma-related racial disparities are driven by factors like structural racism and social adversity.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, polygenic risk score and colorectal cancer risk

BACKGROUND

The regular use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) has been associated with reduced colorectal cancer (CRC) risk.

AIM

To explore whether this association varies according to background polygenic risk for CRC.

METHODS

Data were collected from a large population-based case-control study on CRC in Germany. A polygenic risk score (PRS) based on 140 CRC-related risk loci was used to quantify the genetic risk. The associations of regular use of NSAIDs (≥2times per week for at least 1 year) with CRC risk were estimated in the whole population and in subgroups according to PRS levels using multivariable logistic regression. The impact of NSAIDs on CRC risk was compared to PRS using the 'genetic risk equivalent' (GRE), a recently developed metric for effective risk communication.

RESULTS

In total 5129 CRC cases and 4093 controls were included in this analysis. The regular use of NSAIDs (including aspirin) was associated with reduced CRC risk [odds ratio (OR) 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59, 0.74], as was regular use of aspirin only (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.65, 0.83), without indication of interaction with the PRS (P = 0.10 and 0.22 respectively). The effect of NSAID use was equivalent to the effect of having a 32 percentiles lower PRS (GRE -32, 95% CI -41, -22).

CONCLUSIONS

The regular use of NSAIDs is associated with greatly reduced CRC risk regardless of individual genetic profile. With an equivalent reduction of relative risk across all polygenic risk groups, absolute risk reduction would be expected to be strongest among those with the highest polygenic risk score.

Effects of Screenings in Reducing Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality Differ by Polygenic Risk Scores

INTRODUCTION

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening reduces CRC incidence and mortality. However, it is unclear whether the reduction in CRC risk may differ by genetic susceptibility.

METHODS

We evaluated this question in a cohort of 304,740 participants of European descent aged 50 years and older. Genetic susceptibility was measured using a polygenic risk score (PRS) constructed with risk variants identified in genomewide association studies. Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals of CRC risk.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 7.0 years, 2,261 incident CRC cases and 528 CRC deaths were identified. CRC screening was associated with a significantly reduced CRC incidence among individuals with a high (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.92) and intermediate PRS (0.84, 0.71-0.98) but not among those with a low PRS (1.03, 0.86-1.25; Pinteraction, 0.005). A similar but more evident difference was observed for mortality (Pinteraction, 0.046), with more than 30% reduced mortality observed in the high PRS group (0.69, 0.52-0.91). Among the younger group (age 50-60 years), CRC screenings were associated with a slightly (but nonsignificantly) elevated incidence and mortality in the low PRS group but a reduced risk in the high PRS group (Pinteraction, 0.043 [incidence]; 0.092 [mortality]). No significant interaction was observed in the older group (age > 60 years).

DISCUSSION

Individuals with a higher genetic risk benefited more substantially from CRC screenings than those with a lower risk. Our findings suggest that PRS may be used to develop personalized CRC screening to maximize its effect on CRC prevention.

Individual and Joint Associations of Genetic Risk and Healthy Lifestyle Score with Colorectal Neoplasms Among Participants of Screening Colonoscopy

Genetic and lifestyle factors contribute to colorectal cancer risk. We investigated their individual and joint associations with various stages of colorectal carcinogenesis. We assessed associations of a polygenic risk score (PRS) and a healthy lifestyle score (HLS) with presence of nonadvanced adenomas and advanced neoplasms among 2,585 participants of screening colonoscopy from Germany. The PRS and HLS individually showed only weak associations with presence of nonadvanced adenomas; stronger associations were observed with advanced neoplasms (ORs, 95% CI, for highest vs. lowest risk tertile: PRS 2.27, 1.78-2.88; HLS 1.96, 1.53-2.51). The PRS was associated with higher odds of advanced neoplasms among carriers of any neoplasms (1.65, 1.23-2.22). Subjects in the highest risk tertile (vs. lowest tertile) of both scores had higher risks for nonadvanced adenomas (1.77, 1.09-2.86), for advanced neoplasms (3.95, 2.53-6.16) and, among carriers of any neoplasms, for advanced versus nonadvanced neoplasms (2.26, 1.31-3.92). Both scores were individually associated with increased risk of nonadvanced adenomas and, much more pronounced, advanced neoplasms. The similarly strong association in relative terms across all levels of genetic risk implies that a healthy lifestyle may be particularly beneficial in those at highest genetic risk, given that the same relative risk reduction in this group would imply a stronger absolute risk reduction. Genetic factors may be of particular relevance for the transition of nonadvanced to advanced adenomas. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: Genetic factors have strong impact on the risk of colorectal neoplasms, which may be reduced by healthy lifestyle. Similarly strong associations in relative terms across all levels of genetic risk imply that a healthy lifestyle may be beneficial due to higher absolute risk reduction in those at highest genetic risk.

Smoking, Genetic Predisposition, and Colorectal Cancer Risk

INTRODUCTION

Smoking and genetic predisposition are established risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC). We aimed to assess and compare their individual and joint impact on CRC risk using the novel approach of genetic risk equivalent (GRE).

METHODS

Data were extracted from the Darmkrebs: Chancen der Verhütung durch Screening study, a large population-based case-control study in Germany. A polygenic risk score (PRS) based on 140 CRC-related single nucleotide polymorphisms was derived to quantify genetic risk. Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate the individual and joint impact of smoking and PRS on CRC risk, and to quantify the smoking effect in terms of GRE, the corresponding effect conveyed by a defined difference in PRS percentiles.

RESULTS

There were 5,086 patients with CRC and 4,120 controls included. Current smokers had a 48% higher risk of CRC than never smokers (adjusted odds ratio 1.48, 95% confidence interval 1.27-1.72). A PRS above the 90th percentile was significantly associated with a 3.6-, 4.3-, and 6.4-fold increased risk of CRC in never, former, and current smokers, respectively, when compared with a PRS below the 10th percentile in never smokers. The interaction between smoking and PRS on CRC risk did not reach statistical significance (P = 0.53). The effect of smoking was equivalent to the effect of having a 30 percentile higher level of PRS (GRE 30, 95% confidence interval 18-42).

DISCUSSION

Both smoking and the PRS carry essentially independent CRC risk information, and their joint consideration provides powerful risk stratification. Abstinence from smoking can compensate for a substantial proportion of genetically determined CRC risk.

A prospective study of the associations among fine particulate matter, genetic variants, and the risk of colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is suspected to increase the risk of colorectal cancer, but the mechanism remains unknown. We aimed to investigate the association between PM_2.5 exposure, genetic variants and colorectal cancer risk in the Prostate, Lung, Colon and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening trial.

METHODS

We included a prospective cohort of 139,534 cancer-free individuals from 10 United States research centers with over ten years of follow-up. We used a Cox regression model to assess the association between PM_2.5 exposure and colorectal cancer incidence by calculating the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) with adjustment for potential confounders. The polygenic risk score (PRS) and genome-wide interaction analysis (GWIA) were used to evaluate the multiplicative interaction between PM_2.5 exposure and genetic variants in regard to colorectal cancer risk.

RESULTS

After a median of 10.43 years of follow-up, 1,666 participants had been diagnosed with colorectal cancer. PM_2.5 exposure was significantly associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (HR = 1.27; 95% CI = 1.17-1.37 per 5 μg/m³ increase). Five independent susceptibility loci reached statistical significance at P < 1.22 × 10^-8 in the interaction analysis. Furthermore, a joint interaction was observed between PM_2.5 exposure and the PRS based on these five loci with colorectal cancer risk (P = 3.11 × 10^-29). The Gene Ontology analysis showed that the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) receptor signaling pathway was involved in the biological process of colorectal cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Our large-scale analysis has shown for the first time that long-term PM_2.5 exposure potential increases colorectal cancer risk, which might be modified by genetic variants.

Use of Polygenic Risk Scores to Select Screening Intervals After Negative Findings From Colonoscopy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) could help to define starting ages for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. However, the role of PRS in determining the length of screening interval after negative findings from colonoscopies is unclear. We aimed to evaluate CRC risk according to PRS and time since last negative colonoscopy.

METHODS

We collected data from 3827 cases and 2641 CRC-free controls in a population-based case-control study in Germany. We constructed a polygenic risk scoring system, based on 90 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, associated with risk of CRC in people of European descent. Participants were classified as having low, medium, or high genetic risk according to tertiles of PRSs among controls. Multiple logistic regression models were used to assess CRC risk according to PRS and time since last negative colonoscopy.

RESULTS

Compared to individuals without colonoscopy in the low PRS category, a 42%-85% lower risk of CRC was observed for individuals who had a negative finding from colonoscopy within 10 years. Beyond 10 years after a negative finding from colonoscopy, significantly lower risk only persisted for the low and medium PRS groups, but not for the high PRS group. Adjusted odds ratios were 0.44 (95% CI, 0.29-0.68), 0.51 (95% CI, 0.34-0.77), and 0.85 (95% CI, 0.58-1.23) in the low, medium, and high PRS group, respectively. Within any time interval, risks were lower for distal than for proximal CRCs.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on findings from a population-based case-control study, the recommended 10-year screening interval for colonoscopy may not need to be shortened among people with high PRSs, but could potentially be prolonged for people with low and medium PRSs. Studies are needed to address personalized time intervals for repeat colonoscopies in average-risk screening cohorts.

Comparative Evaluation of Participation and Diagnostic Yield of Colonoscopy vs Fecal Immunochemical Test vs Risk-Adapted Screening in Colorectal Cancer Screening: Interim Analysis of a Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial (TARGET-C)

INTRODUCTION

In colorectal cancer screening, implementing risk-adapted screening might be more effective than traditional screening strategies. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of a risk-adapted screening strategy with colonoscopy and fecal immunochemical test (FIT) in colorectal cancer screening.

METHODS

A randomized controlled trial was conducted in 6 centers in China since May 2018. Nineteen thousand five hundred forty-six eligible participants aged 50-74 years were recruited and randomly allocated into 1 of the 3 screening groups in a 1:2:2 ratio: (i) one-time colonoscopy (n = 3,916), (ii) annual FIT (n = 7,854), and (iii) annual risk-adapted screening (n = 7,776). Based on the risk-stratification score, high-risk subjects were referred for colonoscopy and low-risk ones were referred for FIT. All subjects with positive FIT were referred for diagnostic colonoscopy. The detection rate of advanced neoplasm was the primary outcome. The study is registered with the China Clinical Trial Registry (www.chictr.org.cn Identifier: ChiCTR1800015506).

RESULTS

For baseline screening, the participation rates of the colonoscopy, FIT, and risk-adapted screening groups were 42.5% (1,665/3,916), 94.0% (7,386/7,854), and 85.2% (6,628/7,776), respectively. For the intention-to-screen analysis, the detection rates of advanced neoplasm were 2.40% (94/3,916), 1.13% (89/7,854), and 1.66% (129/7,776), with odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 2.16 (1.61-2.90; P < 0.001) for colonoscopy vs FIT, 1.45 (1.10-1.90; P < 0.001) for colonoscopy vs risk-adapted screening, and 1.49 (1.13-1.97; P < 0.001) for risk-adapted screening vs FIT, respectively. The numbers of subjects who required a colonoscopic examination to detect 1 advanced neoplasm were 18 in the colonoscopy group, 10 in the FIT group, and 11 in the risk-adapted screening group.

DISCUSSION

For baseline screening, the risk-adapted screening approach showed a high participation rate, and its diagnostic yield was superior to that of FIT at a similarly low load of colonoscopy.

Risk-Adapted Cutoffs in Colorectal Cancer Screening by Fecal Immunochemical Tests

INTRODUCTION

Fecal immunochemical tests (FITs) for hemoglobin are increasingly used in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. The use of uniform positivity thresholds (cutoffs) within screening populations is expected to imply lower positive predictive values (PPVs) and higher numbers of colonoscopies needed (numbers needed to scope [NNSs]) to detect advanced neoplasms among screening participants at lower risk compared with those at higher risk. We aimed to assess such variation and its potential implications in a large screening cohort.

METHODS

A quantitative FIT (FOB Gold; Sentinel Diagnostics, Milan, Italy) was conducted in fecal samples collected by 4,332 participants of screening colonoscopy before bowel preparation. Participants were classified into 3 risk groups (low, medium, and high) by tertiles of a previously derived risk-factor-based risk score. We determined the variation of PPVs and NNSs for detecting advanced neoplasms (i.e., CRC or advanced adenoma) when using the same FIT cutoffs and variation of FIT cutoffs that would yield uniform PPVs across risk groups.

RESULTS

When a fixed FIT cutoff of 10 μg/g was used, the PPV increased from 23.3% to 41.8% from the low- to the high-risk group, with NNS decreasing from 4.3 to 2.4 (P < 0.001). Similar variations of PPVs and NNSs across risk groups were observed at higher FIT cutoffs. When risk group-specific cutoffs were defined to achieve fixed PPVs of 25%, 30%, and 35% across all risk groups, cutoffs varied from 5.3 to 11.4, 6.5 to 18.7, and 7.5 to 31.0 μg hemoglobin/g feces, respectively, between high- and low-risk groups (P < 0.05 for all differences).

DISCUSSION

Using risk-adapted cutoffs may help to achieve target levels of PPV and NNS and might be an option to consider for personalized FIT-based CRC screening.

A New Comprehensive Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Model Incorporating Family History, Personal Characteristics, and Environmental Factors

PURPOSE

Reducing colorectal cancer incidence and mortality through early detection would improve efficacy if targeted. We developed a colorectal cancer risk prediction model incorporating personal, family, genetic, and environmental risk factors to enhance prevention.

METHODS

A familial risk profile (FRP) was calculated to summarize individuals' risk based on detailed cancer family history (FH), family structure, probabilities of mutation in major colorectal cancer susceptibility genes, and a polygenic component. We developed risk models, including individuals' FRP or binary colorectal cancer FH, and colorectal cancer risk factors collected at enrollment using population-based colorectal cancer cases (N = 4,445) and controls (N = 3,967) recruited by the Colon Cancer Family Registry Cohort (CCFRC). Model validation used CCFRC follow-up data for population-based (N = 12,052) and clinic-based (N = 5,584) relatives with no cancer history at recruitment to assess model calibration [expected/observed rate ratio (E/O)] and discrimination [area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC)].

RESULTS

The E/O [95% confidence interval (CI)] for FRP models for population-based relatives were 1.04 (0.74-1.45) for men and 0.86 (0.64-1.20) for women, and for clinic-based relatives were 1.15 (0.87-1.58) for men and 1.04 (0.76-1.45) for women. The age-adjusted AUCs (95% CI) for FRP models for population-based relatives were 0.69 (0.60-0.78) for men and 0.70 (0.62-0.77) for women, and for clinic-based relatives were 0.77 (0.69-0.84) for men and 0.68 (0.60-0.76) for women. The incremental values of AUC for FRP over FH models for population-based relatives were 0.08 (0.01-0.15) for men and 0.10 (0.04-0.16) for women, and for clinic-based relatives were 0.11 (0.05-0.17) for men and 0.11 (0.06-0.17) for women.

CONCLUSIONS

Both models calibrated well. The FRP-based model provided better risk stratification and risk discrimination than the FH-based model.

IMPACT

Our findings suggest detailed FH may be useful for targeted risk-based screening and clinical management.

Association of CD44 gene rs187115 polymorphism with colorectal cancer risk and prognosis in Chinese Han population: a case-control study

The cell surface adhesion receptor CD44 reportedly affects the development and progression of cancers. Moreover, CD44 gene rs187115 polymorphism appears to be genetic determinant of cancer susceptibility. We investigated whether CD44 rs187115 polymorphism is associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk and prognosis. We enrolled 669 CRC cases and 826 controls in this three-center case-control study in a Chinese Han population. All individuals were genotyped by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry. Cross-over analysis, multivariate logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier method, and Cox regression analysis were used for analysis. In this study, CD44 rs187115 polymorphism was associated with increased risk for CRC. Stratified analyses revealed that CD44 rs187115 polymorphism was correlated with increased risk for CRC in females, drinkers, smokers, and those aged ≥ 60 years. In addition, rs187115 polymorphism was significantly associated with TNM III+IV stage, lymph node metastasis and tumor size in CRC patients. Combined effects of CD44 rs187115 polymorphism (GG/AG vs. AA) and environmental factors (smoking and drinking) further increased the risk of CRC. GG genotype carriers showed poorer overall survival than AA genotype carriers. Cox regression analysis showed that drinking, CD44 rs187115 polymorphism, and TNM stage were independent prognostic factors affecting CRC. These findings show that CD44 rs187115 polymorphism may be a potential biomarker predictive of CRC susceptibility and prognosis.

Analysis of prognosis, genome, microbiome, and microbial metabolome in different sites of colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

The colorectum includes ascending colon, transverse colon, descending colon, sigmoid colon, and rectum. Different sites of colorectal cancer (CRC) are different in many aspects, including clinical symptoms, biological behaviour, and prognosis.

PURPOSE

This study aimed to analyse prognosis, genes, bacteria, fungi, and microbial metabolome in different sites of CRC.

METHODS

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and STAT were used to statistically describe and analyse the prognosis in different sites of CRC. RNA sequences of CRC from Broad Institute's GDAC Firehose were re-annotated and reanalysed based on different sites using weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA). The Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyse the prognosis and Cytoscape was used to construct a drug-target network based on DGIdb databases. Bacterial 16S V3-V4 and fungal ITS V3-V4 ribosomal RNA genes of stool samples were sequenced. Gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GS/MS) was performed to detect the microbial metabolites in stool samples. Bioinformatics analysis was performed to compare distinct gut microorganisms and microbial metabolites between rectal and sigmoid cancers.

RESULTS

The prognosis in CRC with different sites is significantly different. The closer to the anus predicted longer survival time. The difference between genes and co-expression pairs in CRC with different sites were constructed. The relative abundance of 112 mRNAs and 26 lncRNAs correlated with the sites of CRC were listed. Nine differentially expressed genes at different sites of CRC were correlated with prognosis. A drug-gene interaction network contained 227 drug-gene pairs were built. The relative abundance of gut bacteria and gut fungus, and the content of microbe-related metabolites were statistically different between rectal and sigmoid cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

There are many differences in prognosis, genome, drug targets, gut microbiome, and microbial metabolome in different colorectal cancer sites. These findings may improve our understanding of the role of the CRC sites in personalized and precision medicine.

Whole-blood DNA Methylation Markers for Risk Stratification in Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Systematic Review

DNA methylation profiles within whole-blood samples have been reported to be associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) occurrence and might enable risk stratification for CRC. We systematically reviewed and summarized studies addressing the association of whole-blood DNA methylation markers and risk of developing CRC or its precursors. We searched PubMed and ISI Web of Knowledge to identify relevant studies published until 12th November 2018. Two reviewers independently extracted data on study population characteristics, candidate genes, methylation measurement methods, methylation levels of patients in comparison to healthy controls, p-values, and odds ratios of the markers. Overall, 19 studies reporting 102 methylation markers for risk assessment of colorectal neoplasms met our inclusion criteria. The studies mostly used Methylation Specific Polymerase Chain Reaction (MS-PCR) for assessing the methylation status of a defined set of genes. Only two studies applied array-based genome-wide assays to assess the methylation levels. Five studies incorporated panels consisting of 2–10 individual methylation markers to assess their potential for stratifying the risk of developing colorectal neoplasms. However, none of these associations was confirmed in an independent cohort. In conclusion, whole-blood DNA methylation markers may be useful as biomarkers for risk stratification in CRC screening, but reproducible risk prediction algorithms are yet to be established by large scale epigenome-wide studies with thorough validation of results in prospective study cohorts including large screening populations. The possibilities of enhancing predictive power by combining methylation data with polygenetic risk scores and environmental risk factors need to be explored.