Standardized phenology monitoring methods to track plant and animal activity for science and resource management applications

Simulated herbicide drift alters native plant flowering phenology

Data for herbicide effects on plant flowering are needed to determine potential impacts on plant reproduction. Thus, flowering phenology was determined for up to 12 weeks after herbicide treatment for native Willamette Valley plants growing in small plots on two Oregon State University experimental farms. Six perennial species were evaluated: Camassia leichtlinii (CALE), Elymus glaucus (ELGL), Eriophyllum lanatum (ERLA), Festuca idahoensis subsp. roemeri (FEID), Iris tenax (IRTE), and Prunella vulgaris var. lanceolata (PRVU). Effects of glyphosate and dicamba, alone and in combination, were determined using simulated drift rates of 0.1 or 0.2 x field application rates (FAR) of 1119 g ha-1 active ingredient (a.i.) (830 g ha-1 acid glyphosate) for glyphosate and 560 g ha-1 a.i. for dicamba. Flowering phenology was evaluated as stage of development on a scale from no buds (converted to 0), buds (1), pre-flowering (2), flowering (3), post-flowering (4), to mature seeds (5) before herbicide treatment and for 12 weeks after treatment. Flowering response to herbicides varied by species and farm; but, in general, dicamba and glyphosate resulted in earlier flowering stages (delayed or not full flowering) for the dicot ERLA, and to a lesser extent, PRVU; and glyphosate resulted in earlier flowering stages for the monocot IRTE. Based on these data, the concentration of herbicide affecting flowering stage was 0.1 x FAR. Once flowering stage was inhibited by dicamba and glyphosate, plants generally did not recover to full flowering. This study provided evidence that common herbicides can affect flowering phenology of native plants with implications for seed production.

Seed germination, morphology and fruit phenology insight of Cylicomorpha solmsii (Urb.) Urb: a step towards sustainable restoration planning

Cylicomorpha solmsii (Urb.) Urb (Caricaceae) is a wild relative of domesticated Carica papaya native to the humid tropical forest of Cameroon. C. solmsii is becoming extinct due to rapid urbanization of its habitat. There is currently no restoration planning, no available data on seed germination, details on morphological description and fruit phenology. We investigated the effects of light and soil on seed germination, updated its morphological description and provided cues of its fruit phenology. In two series of experiments, a germination test was first conducted under light and dark conditions with three seed pre-treatments (scarification, drying and cold). Secondly, pre-treated seeds were sown in native soils of C. solmsii habitat collected at Eloumden I and II, two ex-situ and mixtures soil with sand. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected on different part of the plant and analyzed using R package version 4.3.2. Our findings showed that C. solmsii seeds can germinate only under light. The seeds manifested a physiological embryonic dormancy. The native soils showed the highest germination percentage and seedling establishment. The dioicy of C. solmsii was clearly described with incomplete staminate and pistillate unisexual flower whorls. C. solmsii was observed to produce fruits throughout the year at varying intensity. This information is a vital cue to species restoration and policy makers towards C. solmsii conservation.

Shifts in sage-grouse arthropod food sources across grazing and environmental gradients in upland meadow communities

Groundwater dependent systems are extremely important habitats for a wide variety of taxa in the Great Basin of North America. The impacts of grazing on these habitats cause shifts in resources and subsequent change in species composition. The Greater sage-grouse, a keystone species of Great Basin ecosystems, rear offspring in these areas during spring and summer months using forbs and arthropods. To examine the impact of grazing on arthropod abundance in these ecosystems, seven meadows, each made up of three unique vegetative communities, were grazed at three intensities across two years (2019-2020) and monitored for environmental variables and abundance of arthropods during peak sage-grouse utilization periods. Additionally, the relationship of field measurements and near-surface digital cameras (phenocams) was examined to better understand how remote sensing technologies can be used to monitor these insect abundance shifts on larger scales. Arthropod taxa abundance responded differently to grazing management and environmental variables. Coleoptera abundance during peak sage-grouse usage periods increased roughly 50% in some meadows with increased grazing intensity. For year-to-year environmental variability in precipitation, Lepidoptera abundance was 114% higher in the drier year, while Coleoptera was 39% lower. Near-surface cameras had varied success with predicting peak insect abundance levels. Lepidoptera and Coleoptera capture rates had strong correlations with phenological indices derived from phenocams, while Formicidae had much weaker relationships.

Plant phenology shifts under climate warming: a systematic review of recent scientific literature

Climate warming-driven temporal shifts in phenology are widely recognised as the foremost footprint of global environmental change. In this regard, concerted research efforts are being made worldwide to monitor and assess the plant phenological responses to climate warming across species, ecosystems and seasons. Here, we present a global synthesis of the recent scientific literature to assess the progress made in this area of research. To achieve this, we conducted a systematic review by following PRISMA protocol, which involved rigorous screening of 9476 studies on the topic and finally selected 215 studies for data extraction. The results revealed that woody species, natural ecosystems and plant phenological responses in spring season have been predominantly studied, with the herbaceous species, agricultural ecosystems and other seasons grossly understudied. Majority of the studies reported phenological advancement (i.e., preponement) in spring, followed by also advancement in summer but delay in autumn. Methodology-wise, nearly two -third of the studies have employed direct observational approach, followed by herbarium-based and experimental approaches, with the latter covering least temporal depth. We found a steady increase in research on the topic over the last decade with a sharp increase since 2014. The global country-wide scientific output map highlights the huge geographical gaps in this area of research, particularly in the biodiversity-rich tropical regions of the developing world. Based on the findings of this global synthesis, we identify the current knowledge gaps and suggest future directions for this emerging area of research in an increasingly warming world.

Sex-dependent phenological responses to climate vary across species' ranges

Anthropogenic climate change has significantly altered the flowering times (i.e., phenology) of plants worldwide, affecting their reproduction, survival, and interactions. Recent studies utilizing herbarium specimens have uncovered significant intra- and inter-specific variation in flowering phenology and its response to changes in climate but have mostly been limited to animal-pollinated species. Thus, despite their economic and ecological importance, variation in phenological responses to climate remain largely unexplored among and within wind-pollinated dioecious species and across their sexes. Using both herbarium specimens and volunteer observations of cottonwood (Populus) species, we examined how phenological sensitivity to climate varies across species, their ranges, sexes, and phenophases. The timing of flowering varied significantly across and within species, as did their sensitivity to spring temperature. In particular, male flowering generally happened earlier in the season and was more sensitive to warming than female flowering. Further, the onset of flowering was more sensitive to changes in temperature than leaf out. Increased temporal gaps between male and female flowering time and between the first open flower date and leaf out date were predicted for the future under two climate change scenarios. These shifts will impact the efficacy of sexual reproduction and gene flow among species. Our study demonstrates significant inter- and intra-specific variation in phenology and its responses to environmental cues, across species' ranges, phenophases, and sex, in wind-pollinated species. These variations need to be considered to predict accurately the effects of climate change and assess their ecological and evolutionary consequences.

Shifts in competitive structures can drive variation in species' phenology

For many species, a well documented response to anthropogenic climate change is a shift in various aspects of its life history, including its timing or phenology. Often, these phenological shifts are associated with changes in abiotic factors used as proxies for resource availability or other suitable conditions. Resource availability, however, can also be impacted by competition, but the impact of competition on phenology is less studied than abiotic drivers. We fit generalized additive models (GAMs) to a long-term experimental dataset on small mammals monitored in the southwestern United States and show that altered competitive landscapes can drive shifts in breeding timing and prevalence, and that, relative to a dominant competitor, other species exhibit less specific responses to environmental factors. These results suggest that plasticity of phenological responses, which is often described in the context of annual variation in abiotic factors, can occur in response to biotic context as well. Variation in phenological responses under different biotic conditions shown here further demonstrates that a more nuanced understanding of shifting biotic interactions is useful to better understand and predict biodiversity patterns in a changing world.

Determinants of interspecific variation in season length of perennial herbs

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Perennial plants in seasonal climates need to optimize their carbon balance by adjusting their active season length to avoid risks of tissue loss under adverse conditions. As season length is determined by two processes, namely spring growth and senescence, it is likely to vary in response to several potentially contrasting selective forces. Here we aim to disentangle the cascade of ecological determinants of interspecific differences in season length.

METHODS

We measured size trajectories in 231 species in a botanical garden. We examined correlations between their spring and autumn size changes and determined how they make up season length. We used structural equation models (SEMs) to determine how niche parameters and species traits combine in their effect on species-specific season length.

KEY RESULTS

Interspecific differences in season length were mainly controlled by senescence, while spring growth was highly synchronized across species. SEMs showed that niche parameters (light and moisture) had stronger, and often trait-independent, effects compared to species traits. Several niche (light) and trait variables (plant height, clonal spreading) had opposing effects on spring growth and senescence.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings indicate different drivers and potential risks in growth and senescence. The strong role of niche-based predictors implies that shifts in season length due to global change are likely to differ among habitats and will not be uniform across the whole flora.

Bridging the gap: how to adopt opportunistic plant observations for phenology monitoring

Plant phenology plays a vital role in assessing climate change. To monitor this, individual plants are traditionally visited and observed by trained volunteers organized in national or international networks - in Germany, for example, by the German Weather Service, DWD. However, their number of observers is continuously decreasing. In this study, we explore the feasibility of using opportunistically captured plant observations, collected via the plant identification app Flora Incognita to determine the onset of flowering and, based on that, create interpolation maps comparable to those of the DWD. Therefore, the opportunistic observations of 17 species collected in 2020 and 2021 were assigned to "Flora Incognita stations" based on location and altitude in order to mimic the network of stations forming the data basis for the interpolation conducted by the DWD. From the distribution of observations, the percentile representing onset of flowering date was calculated using a parametric bootstrapping approach and then interpolated following the same process as applied by the DWD. Our results show that for frequently observed, herbaceous and conspicuous species, the patterns of onset of flowering were similar and comparable between both data sources. We argue that a prominent flowering stage is crucial for accurately determining the onset of flowering from opportunistic plant observations, and we discuss additional factors, such as species distribution, location bias and societal events contributing to the differences among species and phenology data. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that the phenological monitoring of certain species can benefit from incorporating opportunistic plant observations. Furthermore, we highlight the potential to expand the taxonomic range of monitored species for phenological stage assessment through opportunistic plant observation data.

Ten best practices for effective phenological research

The number and diversity of phenological studies has increased rapidly in recent years. Innovative experiments, field studies, citizen science projects, and analyses of newly available historical data are contributing insights that advance our understanding of ecological and evolutionary responses to the environment, particularly climate change. However, many phenological data sets have peculiarities that are not immediately obvious and can lead to mistakes in analyses and interpretation of results. This paper aims to help researchers, especially those new to the field of phenology, understand challenges and practices that are crucial for effective studies. For example, researchers may fail to account for sampling biases in phenological data, struggle to choose or design a volunteer data collection strategy that adequately fits their project's needs, or combine data sets in inappropriate ways. We describe ten best practices for designing studies of plant and animal phenology, evaluating data quality, and analyzing data. Practices include accounting for common biases in data, using effective citizen or community science methods, and employing appropriate data when investigating phenological mismatches. We present these best practices to help researchers entering the field take full advantage of the wealth of available data and approaches to advance our understanding of phenology and its implications for ecology.

Volunteer-contributed observations of flowering often correlate with airborne pollen concentrations

Characterizing airborne pollen concentrations is crucial for supporting allergy and asthma management; however, pollen monitoring is labor intensive and, in the USA, geographically limited. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) engages thousands of volunteer observers in regularly documenting the developmental and reproductive status of plants. The reports of flower and pollen cone status contributed to the USA-NPN's platform, Nature's Notebook, have the potential to help address gaps in pollen monitoring by providing real-time, spatially explicit information from across the country. In this study, we assessed whether observations of flower and pollen cone status contributed to Nature's Notebook can serve as effective proxies for airborne pollen concentrations. We compared daily pollen concentrations from 36 National Allergy Bureau (NAB) stations in the USA with flowering and pollen cone status observations collected within 200 km of each NAB station in each year, 2009-2021, for 15 common tree taxa using Spearman's correlations. Of 350 comparisons, 58% of correlations were significant (p < 0.05). Comparisons could be made at the largest numbers of sites for Acer and Quercus. Quercus demonstrated a comparatively high proportion of tests with significant agreement (median ρ = 0.49). Juglans demonstrated the strongest overall coherence between the two datasets (median ρ = 0.79), though comparisons were made at only a small number of sites. For particular taxa, volunteer-contributed flowering status observations demonstrate promise to indicate seasonal patterns in airborne pollen concentrations. The quantity of observations, and therefore, their utility for supporting pollen alerts, could be substantially increased through a formal observation campaign.

Updates to standardized plant and animal observation protocols of the USA National Phenology Network

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) was established to coordinate the collection of rigorous, high-quality phenology observations to support scientific discovery and management decisions and to increase awareness of phenology, its relationship to environmental conditions and its influence on ecosystems. A cornerstone of the USA-NPN's infrastructure and data collection activities is a suite of rigorous, standardized phenology observation protocols, published in 2014 (Denny et al., Int J Biometeorol 58:591-601, 2014). In the years since, users have requested modifications and additions to the existing protocols. Here, we describe changes that have been made to the original protocols since their publication in 2014. These modifications have been made to reduce confusion in the phenophase definitions, include new taxonomic groups, and expand protocols to more fully capture certain life cycle stages. We anticipate continued expansion of the protocols and future updates can be found in the University of Arizona Research Data Repository (USA National Phenology Network 2014).

How consistently do species leaf-out or flower in the same order? Understanding the factors that shape this characteristic of plant communities

Plant species are frequently reported to undergo leaf-out and flowering in a consistent order from 1 year to the next; however, only a limited number of these findings arise from studies encompassing many species or sites. Here, we evaluate the consistency in the order species leafed out in the northeastern United States using observations contributed to the USA National Phenology Network's Nature's Notebook platform. We repeated this analysis for flowering, evaluating a total of 132 species across 84 sites. We documented a relatively high degree of consistency in the order of both events among individual plants, with higher consistency in flowering. A small number of species pairs exhibited very high consistency in phenological order across several sites. The majority of species pairs exhibited variability in how consistently they underwent either leaf-out or flowering from site to site, which could be the result of either plastic or locally adaptive responses. Our investigation revealed that neither functional type nor seasonal position played a major role in shaping how consistently species leafed out or flowered in the same order. Instead, we found the number of days separating the events and interannual variability in timing to be the most influential factors driving the consistency in ordering.

Science and Management Advancements Made Possible by the USA National Phenology Network's Nature's Notebook Platform

The USA National Phenology Network was established in 2007 to formalize standardized phenology monitoring across the country. The aims of the network are to collect, store, and share phenology data and information to support scientific discovery, decision-making, an appreciation for phenology, and equitable engagement within the network. To support these aims, the network launched Nature's Notebook, a rigorous platform for monitoring plant and animal phenology, in 2009.

Since the launch of Nature's Notebook, participants across the country have contributed over 30 million phenology records. The participants range from backyard observers with an interest in nature to researchers and natural resource managers asking specific questions. We survey the breadth of studies and applied decisions that have used Nature's Notebook and the consequent data. The dimensionality of the data set maintained by the network is a function of Nature's Notebook users; this insight is key to shaping the network’s future data collection activities.

Quantifying phenological diversity: a framework based on Hill numbers theory

Background

Despite the great concern triggered by the environmental crisis worldwide, the loss of temporal key functions and processes involved in biodiversity maintenance has received little attention. Species are restricted in their life cycles by environmental variables because of their physiological and behavioral properties; thus, the timing and duration of species' presence and their activities vary greatly between species within a community. Despite the ecological relevance of such variation, there is currently no measure that summarizes the key temporal aspects of biological diversity and allows comparisons of community phenological patterns. Here, we propose a measure that synthesizes variability of phenological patterns using the Hill numbers-based attribute diversity framework.

Methods

We constructed a new phenological diversity measure based on the aforementioned framework through pairwise overlapping distances, which was supplemented with wavelet analysis. The Hill numbers approach was chosen as an adequate way to define a set of diversity values of different order q, a parameter that determines the sensitivity of the diversity measure to abundance. Wavelet transform analysis was used to model continuous variables from incomplete data sets for different phenophases. The new measure, which we call Phenological Hill numbers (PD), considers the decouplings of phenophases through an overlapping area value between pairs of species within the community. PD was first tested through simulations with varying overlap in phenophase magnitude and intensity and varying number of species, and then by using one real data set.

Results

PD maintains the diversity patterns of order q as in any other diversity measure encompassed by the Hill numbers framework. Minimum PD values in the simulated data sets reflect a lack of differentiation in the phenological curves of the community over time; by contrast, the maximum PD values reflected the most diverse simulations in which phenological curves were equally distributed over time. PD values were consistent with the homogeneous distribution of the intensity and concurrence of phenophases over time, both in the simulated and the real data set.

Discussion

PD provides an efficient, readily interpretable and comparable measure that summarizes the variety of phenological patterns observed in ecological communities. PD retains the diversity patterns of order q characteristic of all diversity measures encompassed by the distance-based Hill numbers framework. In addition, wavelet transform analysis proved useful for constructing a continuous phenological curve. This methodological approach to quantify phenological diversity produces simple and intuitive values for the examination of phenological diversity and can be widely applied to any taxon or community's phenological traits.

Deep Learning in Plant Phenological Research: A Systematic Literature Review

Climate change represents one of the most critical threats to biodiversity with far-reaching consequences for species interactions, the functioning of ecosystems, or the assembly of biotic communities. Plant phenology research has gained increasing attention as the timing of periodic events in plants is strongly affected by seasonal and interannual climate variation. Recent technological development allowed us to gather invaluable data at a variety of spatial and ecological scales. The feasibility of phenological monitoring today and in the future depends heavily on developing tools capable of efficiently analyzing these enormous amounts of data. Deep Neural Networks learn representations from data with impressive accuracy and lead to significant breakthroughs in, e.g., image processing. This article is the first systematic literature review aiming to thoroughly analyze all primary studies on deep learning approaches in plant phenology research. In a multi-stage process, we selected 24 peer-reviewed studies published in the last five years (2016-2021). After carefully analyzing these studies, we describe the applied methods categorized according to the studied phenological stages, vegetation type, spatial scale, data acquisition- and deep learning methods. Furthermore, we identify and discuss research trends and highlight promising future directions. We present a systematic overview of previously applied methods on different tasks that can guide this emerging complex research field.

Biological Traits and Genetic Relationships Amongst Cultivars of Three Species of Tagetes (Asteraceae)

Marigolds (Tagetes spp.) are multifunctional flowering plants belonging to the Asteraceae family, well-known and widespread for their ornamental value and many other uses. In this study, morphological differences and genetic relationships among 21 cultivars of three species of marigold (Tagetes patula, T. erecta and T. tenuifolia) were analysed. Results have revealed obvious differences among genotypes, starting from the morphological characteristics of the seeds and their capacity to germinate to adult plant morphological characteristics, both between cultivars and species. The genotypic differences were manifested in considerable variation in the development of phenological stages and the main morphological traits of plants and flowers. PCA and hierarchical clustering analyses of morphological traits revealed a homogeneous grouping of cultivars within each species, except for Orion, belonging to T. patula, which was closer to T. erecta cultivars. A subset of 13 cultivars from the three species was subjected to SSR analysis, revealing considerable genetic diversity and good separation between T. patula on the one side and T. erecta and T. tenuifolia on the other. The observed heterozygosity was much lower than the expected heterozygosity, revealing a high degree of fixation. The results reveal that the three species evaluated have considerable morphological and genetic diversity, which has important implications for assessing genetic diversity, conserving germplasm and selecting parents for new breeding works in marigolds.

Biogeosciences Perspectives on Integrated, Coordinated, Open, Networked (ICON) Science

This article is composed of three independent commentaries about the state of Integrated, Coordinated, Open, Networked (ICON) principles in the American Geophysical Union Biogeosciences section, and discussion on the opportunities and challenges of adopting them. Each commentary focuses on a different topic: (a) Global collaboration, technology transfer, and application (Section 2), (b) Community engagement, community science, education, and stakeholder involvement (Section 3), and (c) Field, experimental, remote sensing, and real-time data research and application (Section 4). We discuss needs and strategies for implementing ICON and outline short- and long-term goals. The inclusion of global data and international community engagement are key to tackling grand challenges in biogeosciences. Although recent technological advances and growing open-access information across the world have enabled global collaborations to some extent, several barriers, ranging from technical to organizational to cultural, have remained in advancing interoperability and tangible scientific progress in biogeosciences. Overcoming these hurdles is necessary to address pressing large-scale research questions and applications in the biogeosciences, where ICON principles are essential. Here, we list several opportunities for ICON, including coordinated experimentation and field observations across global sites, that are ripe for implementation in biogeosciences as a means to scientific advancements and social progress.

Peak radial growth of diffuse-porous species occurs during periods of lower water availability than for ring-porous and coniferous trees

Climate models project warmer summer temperatures will increase the frequency and heat severity of droughts in temperate forests of Eastern North America. Hotter droughts are increasingly documented to affect tree growth and forest dynamics, with critical impacts on tree mortality, carbon sequestration and timber provision. The growing acknowledgement of the dominant role of drought timing on tree vulnerability to water deficit raises the issue of our limited understanding of radial growth phenology for most temperate tree species. Here, we use well-replicated dendrometer band data sampled frequently during the growing season to assess the growth phenology of 610 trees from 15 temperate species over 6 years. Patterns of diameter growth follow a typical logistic shape, with growth rates reaching a maximum in June, and then decreasing until process termination. On average, we find that diffuse-porous species take 16-18 days less than other wood-structure types to put on 50% of their annual diameter growth. However, their peak growth rate occurs almost a full month later than ring-porous and conifer species (ca. 24 ± 4 days; mean ± 95% credible interval). Unlike other species, the growth phenology of diffuse-porous species in our dataset is highly correlated with their spring foliar phenology. We also find that the later window of growth in diffuse-porous species, coinciding with peak evapotranspiration and lower water availability, exposes them to a higher water deficit of 88 ± 19 mm (mean ± SE) during their peak growth than ring-porous and coniferous species (15 ± 35 mm and 30 ± 30 mm, respectively). Given the high climatic sensitivity of wood formation, our findings highlight the importance of wood porosity as one predictor of species climatic sensitivity to the projected intensification of the drought regime in the coming decades.

An empirical method to account for climatic adaptation in plant phenology models

Phenological shifts in plant species are one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change impact on the biosphere. Modeling phenological variations of plant species over broad regions is challenging because of the varied climatic requirements of geographic populations due to local adaptation. In this study, we developed an empirical method to calibrate phenological models of temperate trees using latitude as a predictor to account for local adaptation of populations to a N-S temperature gradient. Fourteen widely distributed tree species in the eastern U.S.A. were investigated using data from the USA-National Phenology Network. We implemented the method in a basic thermal time bud break model to introduce the algorithm of the method and test its effectiveness. For each species, dates of breaking leaf buds were first predicted using a traditional non-spatial model and then with a spatial model that has the critical thermal forcing requirements calibrated for different populations at varied latitudes. As anticipated, non-spatial model predictions that assumed a uniform forcing requirement across latitudes showed consistent and systematic biases at both higher (overestimation-predictions being later) and lower (underestimation-predictions being earlier) latitudes. Spatial models that have been calibrated using our method removed the geographic biases and yielded latitudinal gradients that more closely matched those of the observations. The spatial models also reduced the overall prediction errors from an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 32.2 days to 20.4 days for the training dataset and an average root mean square error for prediction (RMSEP) of 32.2 days to 19.9 days for the testing dataset. This paper is focused on introducing the new calibration method as a preparatory step toward developing operational models that may potentially predict large-scale and range-wide phenological responses of various plant species to climatic changes with improved local accuracy.

Macrophenology: insights into the broad-scale patterns, drivers, and consequences of phenology

Plant phenology research has surged in recent decades, in part due to interest in phenological sensitivity to climate change and the vital role phenology plays in ecology. Many local-scale studies have generated important findings regarding the physiology, responses, and risks associated with shifts in plant phenology. By comparison, our understanding of regional- and global-scale phenology has been largely limited to remote sensing of green-up without the ability to differentiate among plant species. However, a new generation of analytical tools and data sources-including enhanced remote sensing products, digitized herbarium specimen data, and public participation in science-now permits investigating patterns and drivers of phenology across extensive taxonomic, temporal, and spatial scales, in an emerging field that we call macrophenology. Recent studies have highlighted how phenology affects dynamics at broad scales, including species interactions and ranges, carbon fluxes, and climate. At the cusp of this developing field of study, we review the theoretical and practical advances in four primary areas of plant macrophenology: (1) global patterns and shifts in plant phenology, (2) within-species changes in phenology as they mediate species' range limits and invasions at the regional scale, (3) broad-scale variation in phenology among species leading to ecological mismatches, and (4) interactions between phenology and global ecosystem processes. To stimulate future research, we describe opportunities for macrophenology to address grand challenges in each of these research areas, as well as recently available data sources that enhance and enable macrophenology research.

Changes in Meadow Phenology in Response to Grazing Management at Multiple Scales of Measurement

Riparian and ground-water dependent ecosystems found in the Great Basin of North America are heavily utilized by livestock and wildlife throughout the year. Due to this constant pressure, grazing can be a major influence on many groundwater dependent resources. It is important for land managers to understand how intensity and timing of grazing affect the temporal availability of these commodities (i.e., biodiversity, water filtration, forage, habitat). Shifts in forage or water availability could potentially be harmful for fauna that rely on them at specific times of the year. Seven meadow communities, each consisting of three distinct vegetative communities, were grazed at three intensities to determine the relationship between grazing management and phenological timing of vegetation. The agreement of on-the-ground measurements, near-surface digital cameras (phenocams), and satellite-based indices of greenness was examined for a two-year period (2019–2020) over these grazing and vegetative community gradients. Field determined phenology, phenocam Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC), and Landsat Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were all highly correlated and the relationship did not change across the treatments. Timing of growth varied in these ecosystems depending on yearly precipitation and vegetative type. Communities dominated by mesic sedges had growing seasons which stopped earlier in the year. Heavier grazing regimes, however, did not equate to significant changes in growing season. Ultimately, shifts in phenology occurred and were successfully monitored at various spatial and temporal scales.

Plant phenological responses to experimental warming-A synthesis

Although there is abundant evidence that plant phenology is shifting with climatic warming, the magnitude and direction of these shifts can depend on the environmental context, plant species, and even the specific phenophase of study. These disparities have resulted in difficulties predicting future phenological shifts, detecting phenological mismatches and identifying other ecological consequences. Experimental warming studies are uniquely poised to help us understand how climate warming will impact plant phenology, and meta-analyses allow us to expose broader trends from individual studies. Here, we review 70 studies comprised 1226 observations of plant phenology under experimental warming. We find that plants are advancing their early-season phenophases (bud break, leaf-out, and flowering) in response to warming while marginally delaying their late-season phenophases (leaf coloration, leaf fall, and senescence). We find consistency in the magnitude of phenological shifts across latitude, elevation, and habitat types, whereas the effect of warming on nonnative annual plants is two times larger than the effect of warming on native perennial plants. Encouragingly for researchers, plant phenological responses were generally consistent across a variety of experimental warming methods. However, we found numerous gaps in the experimental warming literature, limiting our ability to predict the effects of warming on phenological shifts. In particular, studies outside of temperate ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere, or those that focused on late-season phenophases, annual plants, nonnative plants, or woody plants and grasses, were underrepresented in our data set. Future experimental warming studies could further refine our understanding of phenological responses to warming by setting up experiments outside of traditionally studied biogeographic zones and measuring multiple plant phenophases (especially late-season phenophases) across species of varying origin, growth form, and life cycle.

The growing and vital role of botanical gardens in climate change research

Botanical gardens make unique contributions to climate change research, conservation, and public engagement. They host unique resources, including diverse collections of plant species growing in natural conditions, historical records, and expert staff, and attract large numbers of visitors and volunteers. Networks of botanical gardens spanning biomes and continents can expand the value of these resources. Over the past decade, research at botanical gardens has advanced our understanding of climate change impacts on plant phenology, physiology, anatomy, and conservation. For example, researchers have utilized botanical garden networks to assess anatomical and functional traits associated with phenological responses to climate change. New methods have enhanced the pace and impact of this research, including phylogenetic and comparative methods, and online databases of herbarium specimens and photographs that allow studies to expand geographically, temporally, and taxonomically in scope. Botanical gardens have grown their community and citizen science programs, informing the public about climate change and monitoring plants more intensively than is possible with garden staff alone. Despite these advances, botanical gardens are still underutilized in climate change research. To address this, we review recent progress and describe promising future directions for research and public engagement at botanical gardens.

Improved phenological escape can help temperate tree seedlings maintain demographic performance under climate change conditions

Phenological escape, a strategy that deciduous understory plants use to access direct light in spring by leafing out before the canopy closes, plays an important role in shaping the recruitment of temperate tree seedlings. Previous studies have investigated how climate change will alter these dynamics for herbaceous species, but there is a knowledge gap related to how woody species such as tree seedlings will be affected. Here, we modeled temperate tree seedling leaf-out phenology and canopy close phenology in response to environmental drivers and used climate change projections to forecast changes to the duration of spring phenological escape. We then used these predictions to estimate changes in annual carbon assimilation while accounting for reduced carbon assimilation rates associated with hotter and drier summers. Lastly, we applied these estimates to previously published models of seedling growth and survival to investigate the net effect on seedling demographic performance. Our models predict that temperate tree seedlings will experience improved phenological escape and, therefore, increased spring carbon assimilation under climate change conditions. However, increased summer respiration costs will offset the gains in spring under extreme climate change leading to a net loss in annual carbon assimilation and demographic performance. Furthermore, we found that annual carbon assimilation predictions depend strongly on the species of nearby canopy tree that seedlings were planted near, with all seedlings projected to assimilate less carbon (and therefore experience worse demographic performance) when planted near Quercus rubra canopy trees as opposed to Acer saccharum canopy trees. We conclude that changes to spring phenological escape will have important effects on how tree seedling recruitment is affected by climate change, with the magnitude of these effects dependent upon climate change severity and biological interactions with neighboring adults. Thus, future studies of temperate forest recruitment should account for phenological escape dynamics in their models.

AUTHENTIC RESEARCH IN THE CLASSROOM INCREASES APPRECIATION FOR PLANTS IN UNDERGRADUATE BIOLOGY STUDENTS

Engaging students in authentic research increases student knowledge, develops STEM skills, such as data analysis and scientific communication, and builds community. Creating authentic research opportunities in plant biology might be particularly crucial in addressing plant awareness disparity (formerly known as plant blindness), producing graduates with botanical literacy, and preparing students for plant-focused careers. Our consortium created four CUREs (course-based undergraduate research experiences) focused on dual themes of plant biology and global change, designed to be utilized by early and late-career undergraduates across a variety of educational settings. We implemented these CURES for four semesters, in a total of 15 courses, at four institutions. Pre- and post-course assessments used the Affective Elements of Science Learning Questionnaire and parts of a "plant blindness" instrument to quantify changes in scientific self-efficacy, science values, scientific identity, and plant awareness or knowledge. Qualitative assessment also queried self-efficacy, science values, and scientific identity. Data revealed significant and positive shifts in awareness of and interest in plants across institutions. Quantitative gains in self-efficacy and scientific identity, however, were only found at two of four institutions tested. This project demonstrates that implementing plant CUREs can produce affective and cognitive gains across institutional types and course levels. Focusing on real-world research questions that capture students' imaginations and connect to their sense of place could create plant awareness while anchoring students in scientific identities. While simple interventions can alleviate plant awareness disparity, implementing multiple CUREs per course, or focusing more on final CURE products, could promote larger and more consistent affective gains across institutions.

Effects of rainfall, temperature and photoperiod on the phenology of ephemeral resources for selected bushveld woody plant species in southern Africa

Variability of ephemeral resources provided by woody plants is related to fluctuating environmental conditions, specifically the predominant climate variables temperature and rainfall. Photoperiod has less impact but also plays a role in the onset of resource pulses. In the seasonally affected bushveld of southern Africa, declining resources could have dire consequences to various animals that depend on these resources. Understanding the impact that rainfall, temperature and photoperiod has on woody plant resources allows managers of natural areas to plan for times when resources are scarce. Using a series of General Linear Models, this baseline study investigates the effects that these variables have on flower production, numbers of new fruit/pods and numbers of new leaves for 113 tagged trees from 26 woody plant species. Leads, lags and coincidental relationships observed between environmental predictor and phenological response variables were explored using time-series cross-correlations and concomitant correlograms. Model results indicated that temperature was the predominant indicator for flowering, with initial flowering starting when temperatures increase in September. A significant lead was observed between flowering and rainfall, suggesting that flower numbers increase approximately one month before rainfall increases. Temperature had the biggest effect on the number of species with new fruits and pods. Significant lags were observed between new fruits and pods and all environmental variables investigated, indicating that these resources depend on rainfall, temperature and photoperiod to reach their full potential. Photoperiod, temperature and the interaction between these variables had a noticeable effect on the number of species with new leaves. Peaks in species with new leaves coincide with peaks in rainfall, temperature and photoperiod. No leading or lagging indicators were observed between new leaves and the environmental variables investigated. In areas containing wildlife populations, recommendations are to undertake regular monitoring of climatic variables investigated, and the ephemeral resources on woody plant species.

COVID-19 impacts on participation in large scale biodiversity-themed community science projects in the United States

Shutdowns associated with the COVID-19 pandemic have had extensive impacts on professional and volunteer-based biodiversity and conservation efforts. We evaluated the impact of the widespread pandemic-related closures in the spring of 2020 on participation patterns and rates on a national and a state-by-state basis in the United States in four biodiversity-themed community science programs: eBird, eButterfly, iNaturalist, and Nature's Notebook. We compared the number of participants, observations submitted, and proportion of observations collected in urban environments in spring 2020 to the expected values for these metrics based on activity in the previous five years (2015-2019), which in many cases exhibited underlying growth. At the national scale, eButterfly and Nature's Notebook exhibited declines in the number of participants and number of observations submitted during the spring of 2020 and iNaturalist and eBird showed growth in both measures. On a state-by-state basis, the patterns varied geographically and by program. The more popular programs - iNaturalist and eBird - exhibited increases in the Eastern U.S. in both the number of observations and participants and slight declines in the West. Further, there was a widespread increase in observations originating from urban areas, particularly in iNaturalist and eBird. Understanding the impacts of lockdowns on participation patterns in these programs is crucial for proper interpretation of the data. The data generated by these programs are highly valuable for documenting impacts of pandemic-related closures on wildlife and plants and may suggest patterns seen in other community science programs and in other countries.

Plasticity and selection drive hump-shaped latitudinal patterns of flowering phenology in an invasive intertidal plant

Patterns of flowering phenology can affect the success of plant invasions, especially when introduced species spread across a wide range of latitude into different climatic conditions. We combined a 4-yr field survey and a 3-yr common garden experiment with the invasive grass Spartina alterniflora that is now widespread along the coast of China to document the latitudinal pattern of flowering phenology, determine if phenology was related to climate or oceanographic variables, and determine whether phenology patterns were fixed versus plastic. In the field, first flowering day displayed a hump-shaped relationship with latitude, with low- and high-latitude plants flowering 100 d and 10 d earlier than plants at middle latitudes, respectively. Peak flowering day showed a similar hump-shaped relationship with latitude, with the interval between first and peak flowering day decreasing with increasing latitude. First flowering day had a hump-shaped relationship with annual growing degree days but a linear positive relationship with tidal range. In the common garden, first flowering day decreased linearly with increasing latitude of origin, as did peak flowering day, and the interval between first and peak flowering day increased with increasing latitude. First flowering day in the common garden had weak or no relationships with abiotic variables at the sites of origin. In both the field and common garden, first flowering day was later in site years for which plants were taller. These results indicate a high degree of plasticity in flowering phenology, with plants flowering later in the field at sites with intermediate temperatures and high tide ranges. Common garden results indicate some selection for earlier flowering at sites with low temperatures, consistent with a shorter growing season. Consistent with life-history theory, plants flowered later under conditions favoring vigorous growth. Earlier flowering and smaller size of plants at high and low latitudes suggests that S. alterniflora has already occupied much of the geographic range favorable for it on the East Coast of Asia.

Monitoring Forest Phenology in a Changing World

Plant phenology is strongly interlinked with ecosystem processes and biodiversity. Like many other aspects of ecosystem functioning, it is affected by habitat and climate change, with both global change drivers altering the timings and frequency of phenological events. As such, there has been an increased focus in recent years to monitor phenology in different biomes. A range of approaches for monitoring phenology have been developed to increase our understanding on its role in ecosystems, ranging from the use of satellites and drones to collection traps, each with their own merits and limitations. Here, we outline the trade-offs between methods (spatial resolution, temporal resolution, cost, data processing), and discuss how their use can be optimised in different environments and for different goals. We also emphasise emerging technologies that will be the focus of monitoring in the years to follow and the challenges of monitoring phenology that still need to be addressed. We conclude that there is a need to integrate studies that incorporate multiple monitoring methods, allowing the strengths of one to compensate for the weaknesses of another, with a view to developing robust methods for upscaling phenological observations from point locations to biome and global scales and reconciling data from varied sources and environments. Such developments are needed if we are to accurately quantify the impacts of a changing world on plant phenology.

The within-population variability of leaf spring and autumn phenology is influenced by temperature in temperate deciduous trees

Leaf phenology is a major driver of ecosystem functioning in temperate forests and a robust indicator of climate change. Both the inter-annual and inter-population variability of leaf phenology have received much attention in the literature; in contrast, the within-population variability of leaf phenology has been far less studied. Beyond its impact on individual tree physiological processes, the within-population variability of leaf phenology can affect the estimation of the average budburst or leaf senescence dates at the population scale. Here, we monitored the progress of spring and autumn leaf phenology over 14 tree populations (9 tree species) in six European forests over the period of 2011 to 2018 (yielding 16 site-years of data for spring, 14 for autumn). We monitored 27 to 512 (with a median of 62) individuals per population. We quantified the within-population variability of leaf phenology as the standard deviation of the distribution of individual dates of budburst or leaf senescence (SD_BBi and SD_LSi, respectively). Given the natural variability of phenological dates occurring in our tree populations, we estimated from the data that a minimum sample size of 28 (resp. 23) individuals, are required to estimate SD_BBi (resp. SD_LSi) with a precision of 3 (resp. 7) days. The within-population of leaf senescence (average SD_LSi = 8.5 days) was on average two times larger than for budburst (average SD_BBi = 4.0 days). We evidenced that warmer temperature during the budburst period and a late average budburst date were associated with a lower SD_BBi, as a result of a quicker spread of budburst in tree populations, with a strong species effect. Regarding autumn phenology, we observed that later senescence and warm temperatures during the senescence period were linked with a high SD_LSi, with a strong species effect. The shares of variance explained by our models were modest suggesting that other factors likely influence the within-population variation in leaf phenology. For instance, a detailed analysis revealed that summer temperatures were negatively correlated with a lower SD_LSi.

California’s endemic Cornus sessilis in Ukraine

Global climate change and increased land use lead to the loss of biodiversity at all levels of the organization of living organisms – ecosystems, species, landscape population, genetic, molecular biological levels, etc. The reaction of plants to anthropogenic impact, according to experts, may be even stronger than postglacial changes. A shift in the thermal isotherm will cause the plants to either move and adapt, or disappear. Endemic species that make up “biodiversity hotspots” require special attention. Cornus sessilis Torr. ex Durand, the object of our research, is part of one of these points – the California Floristic Province. Researchers are now focusing their efforts on developing a climate change – related biodiversity management strategy. In the case of the threat of extinction of the species in nature, there is a important method of preserving it in culture (ex situ). M. M. Gryshko National Botanical Garden at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (the NBG) pays great attention to the introduction of rare endemic species from the different geographical and floristic regions of the world. The gene pool of Cornus L. s. l. in the NBG consists of more than 30 species and 40 cultivars including the insufficiently researched and little-known Californian endemic C. sessilis. In Europe, it has been grown since 2017 only in Chateau Perouse Botanic Gardens (Saint-Gilles, France) and in Ukraine only the NBG has it. In this article we evaluate the life cycle of the development C. sessilis under conditions of introduction different from the conditions of its natural area. To do this, we used the classic traditional methods of the research on the process of introduction, in particular, botanical plant identification, visual observation, phenology, comparative morphology and biometrics. Morphological descriptors (life form, colour and texture of bark, leaf shape, pubescence character, structure of generative and vegetative buds, inflorescences, flowers, fruits and endocarp) of C. sessilis genotypes introduced to the NBG are identical to those of plants from their natural habitats. The weight of fruits and endocarps were determined by us for the first time. The results of biometric analysis of the size of leaves and fruits showed that the plants of C. sessilis grown in the NBG had the larger leaf blades, but the smaller fruits as compared to those in the wild. In the NBG the plants underwent a full cycle of seasonal development (from the deployment of buds to the leaf fall, inclusive) for 229 days. In general, the phenological strategy of C. sessilis genotypes introduced in the NBG corresponds to that of other species of Cornus s. str., including C. mas L. Our results indicate that C. sessilis, California’s rare endemic species new to Ukraine, has adapted to the new conditions – the plants bear fruits and produce seeds. The experience of successful introduction makes it possible to cultivate a new species to expand the diversity of food, medicinal and reclamation plants of the family Cornaceae as well as the use in synthetic breeding to obtain new cultivars with valuable biological and economic properties. Cornus sessilis compatibility test as rootstocks for other species is important for clarifying the theoretical issues of family ties of species Cornaceae and practical – for widespread reproduction of the required cultivars C. mas breeding in the NBG on a potentially compatible rootstock C. sessilis.

VASCULAR EPIPHYTES: THE UGLY DUCKLING OF PHENOLOGICAL STUDIES

The phenology of vascular epiphytes, which represent account for about 10 % of the world’s flowering plants and perform important ecological functions, has been just partially explored. Since phenology is a key tool for the management and conservation of species, the objective of this review was to synthesize the information published so far about the phenology of vascular epiphytes, detect gaps of knowledge, and suggest future lines of investigation to understand the underlying mechanisms. We conducted an online search for articles in Google Scholar and in the ISI Web of Science database from 1800 to 2020, with different combinations of keywords. 107 studies addressing the phenology of different holo-epiphyte species were found; 88 % of the studies were performed in the Neotropic, especially in tropical and subtropical wet forests. The phenology of only ca.2% (418 spp.) of all reported epiphyte species has been explored. There is a bias toward the study of the flowering and fruiting phenology in members of the Orchidaceae (192 spp.) and Bromeliaceae (124 spp.) families. In general, the vegetative and reproductive phenology of epiphytes tends to be seasonal; however, there is a huge gap in our understanding of the proximate and ultimate factors involved. Future research should explicitly focus on studying those factors.

Evaluation of VEGETATION and PROBA-V Phenology Using PhenoCam and Eddy Covariance Data

High-quality retrieval of land surface phenology (LSP) is increasingly important for understanding the effects of climate change on ecosystem function and biosphere–atmosphere interactions. We analyzed four state-of-the-art phenology methods: threshold, logistic-function, moving-average and first derivative based approaches, and retrieved LSP in the North Hemisphere for the period 1999–2017 from Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) SPOT-VEGETATION and PROBA-V leaf area index (LAI) 1 km V2.0 time series. We validated the LSP estimates with near-surface PhenoCam and eddy covariance FLUXNET data over 80 sites of deciduous forests. Results showed a strong correlation (R2 > 0.7) between the satellite LSP and ground-based observations from both PhenoCam and FLUXNET for the timing of the start (SoS) and R2 > 0.5 for the end of season (EoS). The threshold-based method performed the best with a root mean square error of ~9 d with PhenoCam and ~7 d with FLUXNET for the timing of SoS (30th percentile of the annual amplitude), and ~12 d and ~10 d, respectively, for the timing of EoS (40th percentile).

Status of Phenological Research Using Sentinel-2 Data: A Review

Remote sensing of plant phenology as an indicator of climate change and for mapping land cover has received significant scientific interest in the past two decades. The advancing of spring events, the lengthening of the growing season, the shifting of tree lines, the decreasing sensitivity to warming and the uniformity of spring across elevations are a few of the important indicators of trends in phenology. The Sentinel-2 satellite sensors launched in June 2015 (A) and March 2017 (B), with their high temporal frequency and spatial resolution for improved land mapping missions, have contributed significantly to knowledge on vegetation over the last three years. However, despite the additional red-edge and short wave infra-red (SWIR) bands available on the Sentinel-2 multispectral instruments, with improved vegetation species detection capabilities, there has been very little research on their efficacy to track vegetation cover and its phenology. For example, out of approximately every four papers that analyse normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) or enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from Sentinel-2 imagery, only one mentions either SWIR or the red-edge bands. Despite the short duration that the Sentinel-2 platforms have been operational, they have proved their potential in a wide range of phenological studies of crops, forests, natural grasslands, and other vegetated areas, and in particular through fusion of the data with those from other sensors, e.g., Sentinel-1, Landsat and MODIS. This review paper discusses the current state of vegetation phenology studies based on the first five years of Sentinel-2, their advantages, limitations, and the scope for future developments.

VARIATION IN THE FLOWERING PHENOLOGY OF AN EPIPHYTIC BROMELIAD ALONG AN ELEVATIONAL GRADIENT

Elevational patterns in flowering phenology have been reported for trees, shrubs and herbs. However, for vascular epiphytes that rely on atmospheric sources for humidity and nutrients, and depend on phorophyte microhabitat, elevational patterns of variation are unknown. In this study, we described the flowering phenology of Tillandsia carlos-hankii, an epiphytic bromeliad, along an elevational gradient in Capulálpam de Méndez, Oaxaca. We analyzed the onset, seasonality and duration of flowering along and within different elevation zones, and we evaluated the effect of phorophyte features (tree height, DBH and canopy diameter) on flowering start date and duration. From June 2016 to May 2017, we periodically recorded phenological data from six populations along three elevation zones (“low” 2151 to 2283 m. a. s. l., “medium”: 2284 to 2416 m. a. s. l. and “high” 2417 to 2548 m. a. s. l.), monitoring two population per zone. Start of flowering occurred between December and January, beginning six to 16 days earlier at low elevations than in the other zones, although this difference was not statistically significant. We observed marked flowering seasonality at all the elevation zones, with differences between zones (W≥18.49, p<0.0001) and between the populations at medium and high elevations (W≥8.57, p≤0.05). Flowering duration spanned fromDecember to May. Phorophyte features were not related to the onset or duration of flowering (t≤-1.47, p≥0.14, in all cases). Our results suggest that vascular epiphytes follow the same elevational patterns in phenology as other life forms, and that populations in the same elevation range can vary. The causes of such intra-elevational variation merit further investigation.

The Importance of Incorporating Landscape Change for Predictions of Climate-Induced Plant Phenological Shifts

Warming in the high Arctic is occurring at the fastest rate on the planet, raising concerns over how this global change driver will influence plant community composition, the timing of vegetation phenological events, and the wildlife that rely on them. In this region, as much as 50% of near-surface permafrost is composed of thermally sensitive ground ice that when melted produces substantial changes in topography and microbiome conditions. We take advantage of natural variations in permafrost melt to conduct a space-for-time study on Ellesmere Island in northern Canada. We demonstrate that phenological timing can be delayed in thermokarst areas when compared to stable ground, and that this change is a function of shifting species composition in these vegetation communities as well as delayed timing within species. These findings suggest that a warming climate could result in an overall broadening of blooming and leafing windows at the landscape level when these delayed timings are taken into consideration with the projected advance of phenological timings in ice-poor areas. We emphasize that the impacts of geomorphic processes on key phenological drivers are essential for enhancing our understanding of community response to climate warming in the high Arctic, with implications for ecosystem functioning and trophic interactions.

How well do the spring indices predict phenological activity across plant species?

The spring indices, models that represent the onset of spring season biological activity, were developed using a long-term observational record from the mid-to-late twentieth century of three species of lilacs and honeysuckles contributed by volunteer observers across the nation. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) produces and freely delivers maps of spring index onset dates at fine spatial scale for the USA. These maps are used widely in natural resource planning and management applications. The extent to which the models represent activity in a broad suite of plant species is not well documented. In this study, we used a rich record of observational plant phenology data (37,819 onset records) collected in recent years (1981-2017) to evaluate how well gridded maps of the spring index models predict leaf and flowering onset dates in (a) 19 species of ecologically important, broadly distributed deciduous trees and shrubs, and (b) the lilac and honeysuckle species used to construct the models. The extent to which the spring indices predicted vegetative and reproductive phenology varied by species and with latitude, with stronger relationships revealed for shrubs than trees and with the Bloom Index compared to the Leaf Index, and reduced concordance between the indices at higher latitudes. These results allow us to use the indices as indicators of when to expect activity across widely distributed species and can serve as a yardstick to assess how future changes in the timing of spring will impact a broad array of trees and shrubs across the USA.

A comparison of ground-based methods for obtaining large-scale, high-resolution data on the spring leaf phenology of temperate tree species

Phenological variation in spring leafing between and within species can determine plant responses to warmer winter and spring temperatures in the short term. Methods are needed for monitoring canopy development that can be replicated on a large-scale, while retaining fine-scale resolution at the level of individual trees. Citizen science has the potential to provide this, but a range of approaches exist in terms of the phenophase recorded (e.g. budburst or leaf expansion), how the phenophase is characterised (first events or intensity monitoring) and the portion of tree crown assessed and observation frequency. A comparison of spring budburst and leaf expansion of four tree species (Fraxinus excelsior, Fagus sylvatica, Quercus robur and Acer pseudoplatanus) was monitored in one woodland using (1) counts of expanded leaves on three crown sections, (2) percentage estimates of expanded leaves across the whole crown and (3) a greenness index from photography. Logistic growth models were applied to make comparisons. First-event dates were found to be misleading due to high variation in leaf development rates within and between species. Percentage estimates and counts produced similar estimates of leaf expansion timing and rate. The greenness index produced similar estimates of timing, but not rate, and was compromised by practicalities of photographing individual crowns in closed-canopy woodland. Citizen scientists could collect data across the period of spring leafing, with visual counts and/or estimates made every 3-4 days, subject to tests of reliability in pilot citizen science studies.

Identification of suites of traits that explains drought resistance and phenological patterns of plants in a semi-arid grassland community

Grassland ecosystems are comprised of plants that occupy a wide array of phenological niches and vary considerably in their ability to resist the stress of seasonal soil-water deficits. Yet, the link between plant drought resistance and phenology remains unclear in perennial grassland ecosystems. To evaluate the role of soil water availability and plant drought tolerance in driving phenology, we measured leaf hydraulic conductance (K_sat), resistance to hydraulic failure (P₅₀), leaf gas exchange, plant and soil water stable isotope ratios (δ¹⁸O), and several phenology metrics on ten perennial herbaceous species in mixed-grass prairie. The interaction between P₅₀ and δ¹⁸O of xylem water explained 67% of differences in phenology, with lower P₅₀ values associated with later season activity, but only among shallow-rooted species. In addition, stomatal control and high water-use efficiency also contributed to the late flowering and late senescence strategies of plants that had low P₅₀ values and relied upon shallow soil water. Alternatively, plants with deeper roots did not possess drought-tolerant leaves, but had high hydraulic efficiency, contributing to their ability to efficiently move water longer distances while maintaining leaf water potential at relatively high values. The suites of traits that characterize these contrasting strategies provide a mechanistic link between phenology and plant-water relations; thus, these traits could help predict grassland community responses to changes in water availability, both temporally and vertically within the soil profile.

Automated data-intensive forecasting of plant phenology throughout the United States

Phenology, the timing of cyclical and seasonal natural phenomena such as flowering and leaf out, is an integral part of ecological systems with impacts on human activities like environmental management, tourism, and agriculture. As a result, there are numerous potential applications for actionable predictions of when phenological events will occur. However, despite the availability of phenological data with large spatial, temporal, and taxonomic extents, and numerous phenology models, there have been no automated species-level forecasts of plant phenology. This is due in part to the challenges of building a system that integrates large volumes of climate observations and forecasts, uses that data to fit models and make predictions for large numbers of species, and consistently disseminates the results of these forecasts in interpretable ways. Here, we describe a new near-term phenology-forecasting system that makes predictions for the timing of budburst, flowers, ripe fruit, and fall colors for 78 species across the United States up to 6 months in advance and is updated every four days. We use the lessons learned in developing this system to provide guidance developing large-scale near-term ecological forecast systems more generally, to help advance the use of automated forecasting in ecology.