Investigating the risk-benefit balance of substituting red and processed meat with fish in a Danish diet

Risk-benefit assessment of foods and its role to inform policy decisions: outcome of an international workshop

Policy decisions in public health require consideration and evaluation of trade-offs for which transparency and science-based evidence is needed. Improvement of decision-support tools is essential to help guide food policy decisions that promote healthy diets and meet the challenges of food systems without compromising food security, food safety, and sovereignty. Risk-benefit assessment of foods (RBA) is an established methodological approach designed to inform policy decisions within the area of nutrition and food safety. Despite methodological developments, translation of RBA findings into policies is still limited. In this context, a stakeholder workshop held in May 2023 gathered RBA experts and food regulators from Europe to identify the challenges, obstacles and opportunities in using evidence generated through RBAs to inform food policy decisions. A structured process was implemented to collect their views through online surveys, breakout groups, and plenary discussions. As a secondary objective, food regulators' views on other approaches for holistic risk assessment fit for food systems analysis were also explored. This paper summarizes the main findings of the workshop and discusses policy implications and future perspectives to improve the area of RBA and its role in food policymaking.

Substituting red meat with insects in burgers: Estimating the public health impact using risk-benefit assessment

In Western societies, reducing red meat consumption gained prominence due to health, environmental, and animal welfare considerations. We estimated the public health impact of substituting beef with house cricket (Acheta domesticus) in European diets (Denmark, France, and Greece) using the risk-benefit assessment (RBA) methodology, building upon the EFSA-funded NovRBA project. The overall health impact of substituting beef patties with insect powder-containing patties was found to be impacted by the amount of cricket powder incorporated in the patties. While using high amounts of cricket powder in meat substitutes may be safe, it does not inherently offer a healthier dietary option compared to beef. Adjustment of cricket powder levels is needed to yield a positive overall health impact. The main driver of the outcome is sodium, naturally present in substantial amounts in crickets. Moreover, the way that cricket powder is hydrated before being used for the production of patties (ratio of powder to water), influences the results. Our study highlighted that any consideration for dietary substitution should be multidimensional, considering nutritional, microbiological and toxicological aspects, and that the design of new food products in the framework of dietary shifts should consider both health risks and benefits associated with the food.

Guidance on risk-benefit assessment of foods

The EFSA Scientific Committee has updated its 2010 Guidance on risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods. The update addresses methodological developments and regulatory needs. While it retains the stepwise RBA approach, it provides additional methods for complex assessments, such as multiple chemical hazards and all relevant health effects impacting different population subgroups. The updated guidance includes approaches for systematic identification, prioritisation and selection of hazardous and beneficial food components. It also offers updates relevant to characterising adverse and beneficial effects, such as measures of effect size and dose-response modelling. The guidance expands options for characterising risks and benefits, incorporating variability, uncertainty, severity categorisation and ranking of different (beneficial or adverse) effects. The impact of different types of health effects is assessed qualitatively or quantitatively, depending on the problem formulation, scope of the RBA question and data availability. The integration of risks and benefits often involves value-based judgements and should ideally be performed with the risk-benefit manager. Metrics such as Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) can be used. Additional approaches are presented, such as probability of all relevant effects and/or effects of given severities and their integration using severity weight functions. The update includes practical guidance on reporting results, interpreting outcomes and communicating the outcome of an RBA, considering consumer perspectives and responses to advice.

The Need for an Alternative Health Claim Process for Foods Based on Both Nutrient and Contaminant Profiles

Most authorized health claims on foods have been established on the basis of single dietary components, mainly micronutrients, such as vitamins, minerals, and possibly bioactives. Failure to sufficiently define and characterize the nutritional profile of a food product is one of the main reasons for rejection or incomplete status for thousands of health claim applications, whereas the food's contaminant profile is simply not accounted for. The objective of this work was to highlight the accumulating scientific evidence supporting a reform of the health claim evaluation process for foods toward more holistic approaches. This would entail the characterization of multiple nutrient-contaminant pairs and contaminant mixture profiles at contaminant levels currently considered "safe," including their interactions that would impact human health outcome(s) in a net positive or negative direction. The notion of a stable nutritional profile in food commodities has been challenged by studies reporting a variable food contaminant content and a declining content of proteins/micronutrients in crops due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. A holistic approach in the health claim process for foods would entail the incorporation of cumulative risk assessment and/or risk-benefit protocols that effectively combine health risks and benefits associated with multiple nutritional and contaminant attributes of the food/diet under evaluation.

Unlocking the potential of forage fish to reduce the global burden of disease

Red meat consumption is associated with an elevated risk of mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs). In contrast, forage fish, as highly nutritious, environmentally friendly, affordable, and the most abundant fish species in the ocean, are receiving increasing interest from a global food system perspective. However, little research has examined the impact of replacing red meat with forage fish in the global diet on diet-related NCDs.

METHODS

We based our study on datasets of red meat projections in 2050 for 137 countries and forage fish catches. We replaced the red meat consumption in each country with forage fish (from marine habitats), without exceeding the potential supply of forage fish. We used a comparative risk assessment framework to investigate how such substitutions could reduce the global burden of diet-related NCDs in adults.

RESULTS

The results of our study show that forage fish may replace only a fraction (approximately 8%) of the world's red meat due to its limited supply, but it may increase global daily per capita fish consumption close to the recommended level. Such a substitution could avoid 0.5-0.75 million deaths and 8-15 million disability-adjusted life years, concentrated in low- and middle-income countries. Forage fish as an alternative to red meat could double (or more) the number of deaths that could be avoided by simply reducing red meat consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis suggests that forage fish is a promising alternative to red meat. Policies targeting the allocation of forage fish to regions where they are needed, such as the Global South, could be more effective in maximising the potential of forage fish to reduce the global burden of disease.

Theoretical and practical aspects of risk communication in food safety: A review study

Currently, food safety hazards have introduced as one of the most important threats to public health worldwide. Considering numerous crises in the field of food safety at global, regional, and national levels, and their impact on the physical and mental health of consumers, it is very vital to evaluate risk communication strategies in each country. Food safety risk communication (FSRC) aims to provide the means for individuals to protect their health from food safety risks and make informed decisions about food risks. The purpose of this study is to present FSRC as one of the key parts of risk analysis, its importance considering the prevalence of food contamination and recent crises related to food. Additionally, the stages of implementation of FSRC are mentioned. In FSRC, it is essential to comply with the principles and prerequisites. There are various strategies for FSRC nowadays. Different platforms for FSRC are rapidly evolving. Choosing and evaluating the appropriate strategy according to the target group, consensus of stakeholders, cooperation and coordination of risk assessors and risk managers have a significant impact in order to improve and implement FSRC.

Probabilistic benefit-risk analysis of fish: Nutritional benefit versus methylmercury-contaminated risk

This paper carries out probabilistic approach to quantify the benefit-risk analysis for foods (BRAFO) of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid and methylmercury (MeHg) for the people who eat the mercury-contaminated fish in Taiwan. We applied the hazard quotient (HQ) model to assess the risk of developmental neuropsychological impairment effect and the desirable dose index (DI) model to quantify the health benefits. Besides, we also applied the disability adjusted life years (DALY) model to assess the number of years lost by incidence of affected infants' intelligence quotient (IQ) and coronary heart disease (CHD) or Stroke for adult. The results of this study show that although the risk of cod and scad are higher, Taiwan residents do not need to reduce intake rate based on benefit considerations. Furthermore, according to the benefits of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), this study suggests that more intake of saury and salmon.

Risk-benefit assessment of shifting from traditional meat-based diets to alternative dietary patterns

The consumption of plant-based meat alternatives has recently transitioned from the niche market to the mainstream. However, changing the dietary patterns may lead to new health challenges referred to possible higher exposure to natural toxins found in plant-based food. The present project aimed to train the fellow in the field of chemical risk assessment and provide a comprehensive overview on how a change towards plant-based meat alternatives may represent a driver for emerging risks. Thus, within the EU-FORA programme the fellow engaged in the following activities: (i) perform a systematic review to analyse the distribution of natural toxins in the most common plant-based meat alternatives in Europe, (ii) risk-benefit assessment of shifting from meat-based diets to soy-based meat alternatives by modelling the substitution of meat with soy, and (iii) determine the occurrence of mycotoxins in plant-based meat alternatives from local markets in Parma, Italy. The fellow learnt the chemical risk assessment procedures applied by the researchers from the Department of Food and Drug of Parma University, thus gaining an in-depth expertise in all the steps. A risk-benefit assessment was performed modelling the intake of aflatoxin B1-contaminated soy-based meat analogues. The health impact due to intake of soy and exposure to aflatoxin B1 was estimated. Within the research group, the fellow also worked on developing a multi-mycotoxin determination method for plant-based meat alternatives matrices. The results of the project provide a picture reflecting the occurrence of natural toxins in plant-based meat alternatives and the need of upgraded regulation frameworks that take into account new products and dietary patterns. The EU-FORA fellowship was a great opportunity for the fellow to expand his professional network and increase his expertise in food safety by gaining new skills in chemical risk assessment, risk-benefit assessment and analytical chemistry.

Quantitative risk-benefit assessment of Portuguese fish and other seafood species consumption scenarios

Portugal has high fish/seafood consumption, which may have both risks and benefits. This study aims to quantify the net health impact of hypothetical scenarios of fish/seafood consumption in the Portuguese population using a risk-benefit assessment methodology. Consumption data from the National Food, Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey 2015-2016 (n 5811) were used to estimate the mean exposure to methylmercury and EPA + DHA in the current and the alternative scenarios considered. Alternative scenarios (alt) were modelled using probabilistic approaches to reflect substitutions from the current consumption in the type of fish/seafood (alt1: excluding predatory fishes; alt2: including only methylmercury low-level fishes) or in the frequency of weekly fish/seafood consumption (alt3 to alt6: 1, 3, 5 or 7 times a week, replacing fish/seafood meals with meat or others). The overall health impact of these scenarios was quantified using disability-adjusted life years (DALY). In the Portuguese population, about 11 450 DALY could be prevented each year if the fish/seafood consumption increased to a daily basis. However, such a scenario would result in 1398 extra DALY considering the consumption by pregnant women and the respective risk on fetal neurodevelopment. Our findings support a recommendation to increase fish/seafood consumption up to 7 times/week. However, for pregnant women and children, special considerations must be proposed to avoid potential risks on fetal neurodevelopment due to methylmercury exposure.

Fat Oxidation of Fatty Fish vs. Meat Meal Diets Under in vitro Standardized Semi-Dynamic Gastric Digestion

Meat and fish are introduced into the diet as a source of protein, but these muscle foods present different fatty acid (FA) compositions and different lipid stabilities. Fatty fish is expected to oxidize due to its higher content of polyunsaturated FA (PUFA), whereas the higher heme-Fe content of red meat will also affect lipid stability. Combining other food ingredients within a meal also influences lipid oxidation, which will not stop after meals intake. This is due to the acidic environment of the stomach together with the presence of metallic ions, a process that is scarcely understood. The goal of this study was to evaluate the oxidation of fatty fish vs. meat meal diets under in vitro standardized semi-dynamic gastric conditions and FA release from the stomach to the duodenum. Meal diets composed by 25% beef meal (BM) or fatty fish meal (FM), 25% fried potatoes, and 50% sugar soft drink were prepared. Proximate composition, FA and amino acid profiles, and meals quality indices were evaluated. Their differences in composition led to different total gastric digestion time of 242.74 (BM) and 175.20 (FM) minutes. Using the INFOGEST semi-dynamic gastric model, 4 gastric emptying (GE) were simulated in both meals. In each GE, FA profile and lipid oxidation products (LOPs) formation were assessed. As a result, more than 50% FA release to the duodenum occurred in GE1, whose percentage decreased with the time of digestion. FM exhibited the highest LOPs formation, which corroborates the high peroxidizability index measured for this meal diet. Higher LOPs formation occurred in the later GEs, which released less FA. This suggests that higher times of residence in the stomach increase FA oxidation. This study shows a higher formation of LOPs during digestion of FM using a whole meal approach. These results relate to its richness in PUFAs compared to BM. Despite higher LOPs formation, FM digests that reached duodenum still contain higher content of unoxidized PUFAs compared with BM and a desirable ω3/ω6 PUFAs ratio of ~0.43. LOPs formation in PUFA-rich meals could be reduced if those meals have a low caloric value, avoiding large times of residence in the stomach and consequently high levels of oxidation.

The Monetary Benefits of Reducing Emissions of Dioxin-like Compounds-Century Poisons-Over Half a Century: Evaluation of the Benefit per Ton Method

The objective of this study is to evaluate the monetary value of health benefits following reductions in century poison dioxin-like compounds for people aged 0–14 years old, 15–64 years old, and persons 65 years or over in Taiwan. The benefit per ton (BPT) method is employed to estimate the monetary value of the benefits of such a reduction from 2021 to 2070 for different age groups in different regions. The results indicate a BPT of US$837,915 per gram of dioxin each year. The results further show that for Taiwan as a whole, the net BPT per gram of dioxin reduction from 2021 to 2025 is US$704 for children, US$42,761 for working-age adults, US$34,817 for older adults, and US$78,282 overall. Reductions in dioxin-like compounds from 2051–2070 will generate 83.93% of the net BPT for the entire country. This is approximately five times the net BPT of emissions reduction from 2021 to 2025. The monetary benefits evaluated in this study indicate that the prevention of health losses caused by the spread and diffusion of dioxin-like compounds have increased significantly. This implies that action must be taken now, along with continued vigilance, to address emission reductions.

Risk–benefit assessment of seaweed Allergenicity risk assessment of novel protein

As the world population rapidly grows, there is a clear need for alternative food sources, particularly for the provision of protein. Seaweed is one such alternative source of protein that requires greater investigation. In this context, a working programme within the European Food Risk Assessment (EU‐FORA) Fellowship Programme framework was developed at National Food Institute – Technical University of Denmark. This Programme is an initiative of the EFSA with the aim to build a European risk assessment community. The purpose of this technical report is to describe the activities in which the fellow was involved. As part of the Research Group for Risk–Benefit, the fellow performed a risk–benefit assessment of seaweed Palmaria palmata gaining an in‐depth expertise in all the steps. The health impact of Palmaria palmata consumption was estimated, considering its high nutritional value but also highlighting concerns towards some components. Simultaneous to the work on the risk–benefit, the fellow also worked within the Research Group for Food Allergy, specifically on the allergenicity risk assessment of a plant‐based novel protein (seaweed protein) using different laboratory assays. Seaweed protein digestibility was assessed, and its digestion products were characterised and assessed for immunogenicity. Finally, the fellow collaborated with the Research Group for Microbial Biotechnology and Biorefining in the development of a novel food (alfalfa protein) application dossier to be submitted to EFSA, gaining expertise in the risk assessment of a novel food. In conclusion, the present working programme, together with additional activities and training provided by different institutions, enabled the fellow to gain a broader perspective in food safety, particularly concerning seaweed, novel foods and the safety assessment of novel proteins.

Consumers' Perception and Preference for the Consumption of Wild Game Meat among Adults in Poland

Wild game meat can be a healthier, safer, and more environmentally friendly alternative to meat from farm animals. The aims of this study were to know the preferences and opinions of Polish consumers regarding game meat and its use in their diet, and to identify consumer segments based on differences in individual game meat choices, concerns, and eating habits related to game meat. The survey was conducted using the platform for online surveys among 1261 adult Poles. Six clusters characterizing the behavior of game consumers were identified (casual consumers, occasional game gourmets, indifferent consumers, occasional consumers, accidental consumers, wild game lovers) and four clusters among those who do not eat game (uninterested, restricted, dislikers, fearful). It has been found that wild game is more often eaten by hunters and their family or friends. The most common reasons for not consuming game are high prices, low availability, no family tradition, and unacceptable taste. Many positive respondents eat game because of its nutritional value but are concerned about the potential health risks and lack of cooking skills. The results of this study indicate the need for information programs for consumers about this meat. They will provide guidance to meat companies about consumer preferences for game and allow them to develop appropriate marketing strategies.

Risk-Benefit Assessment of Cereal-Based Foods Consumed by Portuguese Children Aged 6 to 36 Months-A Case Study under the RiskBenefit4EU Project

Cereal-based foods, including breakfast (BC) and infant cereals (IC), are among the first solid foods introduced to infants. BC and IC are sources of macro and micronutrients that have beneficial effects on health, but can also be sources of harmful chemical and microbiological contaminants and nutrients that may lead to adverse health effects at high consumption levels. This study was performed under the RiskBenefit4EU project with the aim of assessing the health impact associated with consumption of BC and IC by Portuguese children under 35 months. Adverse effects associated with the presence of aflatoxins, Bacillus cereus, sodium and free sugars were assessed against the benefits of fiber intake. We applied a risk-benefit assessment approach, and quantified the health impact of changes in consumption of BC and IC from current to various alternative consumption scenarios. Health impact was assessed in terms of disability-adjusted life years. Results showed that moving from the current consumption scenario to considered alternative scenarios results in a gain of healthy life years. Portuguese children can benefit from exchanging intake of IC to BC, if the BC consumed has an adequate nutritional profile in terms of fiber, sodium and free sugars, with levels of aflatoxins reduced as much as possible.

Approaches for Health Effect Characterization in Risk-Benefit Assessment of Foods: A Comparative Case Study

One of the challenges in quantitative risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods is the choice of approach for health effect characterization to estimate the health impact of dietary changes. The purpose of health effect characterization is to describe an association between intake of a food or food component and a health effect in terms of a dose-response relationship. We assessed the impact of the choice of approach for health effect characterization in RBA in two case studies based on substitution of (i) white rice by brown rice and (ii) unprocessed red meat by vegetables. We explored this by comparing the dose-response relations linking a health effect with (i) a food component present in the food, (ii) a food based on non-specified substitution analyses, and (iii) a food based on specified substitution analyses. We found that the choice of approach for health effect characterization in RBA may largely impact the results of the health impact estimates. Conducting the calculations only for a food component may neglect potential effects of the food matrix and of the whole food on the diet-disease association. Furthermore, calculations based on associations for non-specified substitutions include underlying food substitutions without specifying these. Data on relevant specified substitutions, which could reduce this type of bias, are unfortunately rarely available. Assumptions and limitations of the health effect characterization approaches taken in RBA should be documented and discussed, and scenario analysis is encouraged when multiple options are available.

Human health risk-benefit assessment of fish and other seafood: a scoping review

Fish and other seafood are important sources of nutrients, but they are also sources of chemical contaminants that may cause adverse health effects. This article aimed to identify existing risk-benefit assessments (RBA) of fish, shellfish, and other seafood, compare methodologies, discuss differences and commonalities in findings, and identify limitations and ways forward for future studies. We conducted a scoping review of the scientific literature of studies in all languages published from 2000 through April 2019. We identified 106 RBA of fish and other seafood across Europe, Asia, North America, Africa, and at the global level. Studies were heterogeneous in terms of types of fish and other seafood considered, beneficial and adverse compounds assessed, and overall methodology. Collected data showed that a diet consisting of a variety of lean and fatty fish and other seafood is recommended for the overall population and that women of childbearing age and children should limit the consumption of fish and other seafood types that have a high likelihood of contamination. Our review emphasizes the need for evidence-based, up-to-date, and harmonized approaches in RBA in general.

The burden of disease of three food-associated heavy metals in clusters in the Danish population - Towards targeted public health strategies

Lifestyle and sociodemographics are likely to influence dietary patterns, and, as a result, human exposure to chemical contaminants in foods and their associated health impact. We aimed to characterize subgroups of the Danish population based on diet and sociodemographic indicators, and identify those bearing a higher disease burden due to exposure to methylmercury (MeHg), cadmium (Cd) and inorganic arsenic (i-As). We collected dietary, lifestyle, and sociodemographic data on the occurrence of chemical contaminants in foods from Danish surveys. We grouped participants according to similarities in diet, lifestyle, and sociodemographics using Self-Organizing Maps (SOM), and estimated disease burden in disability-adjusted life years (DALY). SOM clustering resulted in 12 population groups with distinct characteristics. Exposure to contaminants varied between clusters and was largely driven by intake of fish, seafood and cereal products. Five clusters had an estimated annual burden >20 DALY/100,000. The cluster with the highest burden had a high proportion of women of childbearing age, with most of the burden attributed to MeHg. Individuals belonging to the top three clusters had higher education and physical activity, were mainly non-smokers and lived in urban areas. Our findings may facilitate the development of preventive strategies targeted to the most affected subgroups.

The health impact of substituting unprocessed red meat by pulses in the Danish diet

BACKGROUND

Diets consisting of high amounts of animal-based protein have been associated with adverse public health effects and are often deemed environmentally unsustainable. Therefore, replacing red meat by pulses has been proposed to reduce the adverse impact on human health and environment. However, unprocessed red meat is an important source of nutrients, such as vitamin B₁₂, iron, zinc and selenium, and the substitution may have negative impact on nutrient adequacy.

METHOD

Using a risk-benefit assessment (RBA) approach, we, therefore, estimated the health impact of substituting unprocessed red meat by pulses on the burden of non-communicable diseases in Denmark, using Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY). Furthermore, we assessed the impact of the substitution on nutrient adequacy.

RESULTS

We found that 187 (95% UI: 209; 168) healthy years of life could be gained per 100,000 individuals per year by substituting 100% of unprocessed red meat by pulses in the Danish diet. We found a decrease in the intake of vitamin B₁₂, zinc and selenium due to the substitution. An additional 10% of the Danish population will become at risk of vitamin B₁₂ and selenium inadequacy, and an additional 20% will be at risk of zinc inadequacy due to the substitution. For iron, a small decrease in the proportion at risk of inadequacy was found.

CONCLUSION

Substitution of unprocessed red meat by pulses was estimated to provide a beneficial health impact on the burden of non-communicable disease, expressed in DALY. Additionally, it was found that the complete substitution will lead to a higher risk of nutrient inadequacies.

Public health risk-benefit assessment of red meat in France: Current consumption and alternative scenarios

Consumption of red meat has been associated with the risks of colorectal cancer (CRC), cardiovascular disease (CVD), foodborne-pathogen related diseases and with the potential benefit obtained by reduction of iron deficiency anemia (IDA). Based on probabilistic models, current risks and benefit for the French population were aggregated into a single metric, the disability adjusted life years (DALY). In France, per 100,000 people, current red meat consumption was responsible for a mean of 19 DALYs due to CRC, 21 DALYs to CVD and 7 DALYs to foodborne diseases. Current consumption of iron throughout the diet led to a mean of 15 DALYs due to IDA. To mitigate the risks, scenarios were built per sub-population of age and gender. Among adult and elderly population, the big meat eaters would benefit to adhere to the current recommendation (less than 500 g/w): the risks of CRC and CVD would decrease. Regarding IDA (scenario built with fixed ground beef amount), for young population, a consumption of 375g/w would be sufficient to eliminate the burden while for 25-44 years-old females, 455g/w would reduce IDA, but not entirely. This study highlighted the importance of assessing health risk-benefit per sub-populations and the necessity of communicating the results accordingly.

Risk-benefit in food safety and nutrition - Outcome of the 2019 Parma Summer School

Risk-benefit assessment is the comparison of the risk of a situation to its related benefits, i.e. a comparison of scenarios estimating the overall health impact. The risk-benefit analysis paradigm mirrors the classical risk analysis one: risk-benefit assessment goes hand-in-hand with risk-benefit management and risk-benefit communication. The various health effects associated with food consumption, together with the increasing demand for advice on healthy and safe diets, have led to the development of different research disciplines in food safety and nutrition. In this sense, there is a clear need for a holistic approach, including and comparing all of the relevant health risks and benefits. The risk-benefit assessment of foods is a valuable approach to estimate the overall impact of food on health. It aims to assess together the negative and positive health effects associated with food intake by integrating chemical and microbiological risk assessment with risk and benefit assessment in food safety and nutrition. The 2019 Parma Summer School on risk-benefit in food safety and nutrition had the objective was to provide an opportunity to learn from experts in the field of risk-benefit approach in food safety and nutrition, including theory, case studies, and communication of risk-benefit assessments plus identify challenges for the future. It was evident that whereas tools and approaches have been developed, more and more case studies have been performed which can form an inherent validation of the risk-benefit approach. Executed risk-benefit assessment case studies apply the steps and characteristics developed: a problem formulation (with at least 2 scenarios), a tiered approach until a decision can be made, one common currency to describe both beneficial and adverse effects (DALYs in most instances). It was concluded that risk-benefit assessment in food safety and nutrition is gaining more and more momentum, while also many challenges remain for the future. Risk-benefit is on the verge of really enrolling into the risk assessment and risk analysis paradigm. The interaction between risk-benefit assessors and risk-benefit managers is pivotal in this, as is the interaction with risk-benefit communicators.

Diverse land uses and high coastal urbanisation do not always result in harmful environmental pollutants in fisheries species

Human activities in coastal catchments can cause the accumulation of pollutants in seafood. We quantified the concentration of heavy metals, pesticides and PFASs in the flesh of the fisheries species yellowfin bream Acanthopagrus australis (n = 57) and mud crab Scylla serrata (n = 65) from 13 estuaries in southeast Queensland, Australia; a region with a variety of human land uses. Pollutants in yellowfin bream were best explained by the extent of intensive uses in the catchment. Pollutants in mud crabs were best explained by the extent of irrigated agriculture and water bodies. No samples contained detectable levels of pesticides, and only six samples contained low levels of PFASs. Metals were common in fish and crab flesh, but only mercury in yellowfin bream from the Mooloolah River breached Australian food safety standards. High pollutant presence and concentration is not the norm in seafood collected during routine surveys, even in estuaries with highly modified catchments.

Effects of seafood consumption on mercury exposure in Norwegian pregnant women: A randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Seafood provides nutrients that are important for optimal development of the unborn child. However, seafood is also a source of contaminants including mercury (Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) that may have adverse effects on neurodevelopment of the fetus. Humans are predominantly exposed to MeHg through seafood consumption, however, levels of MeHg vary considerably between species.

OBJECTIVES

Investigate, in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) during pregnancy, if an increased intake of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), a fish species with relatively low levels of MeHg contamination, influences total hair Hg (THHg) concentrations in humans.

METHODS

Pregnant women (n = 137) were enrolled in the RCT "Mommy's Food" (2016-2017), which was designed to increase iodine status. Participants were randomly assigned to intervention (400 g of cod fillets per week) or control (continued habitual diet) groups for 16 weeks (gestational week 20-36). THHg concentrations were measured at baseline and post-intervention using thermal decomposition, amalgamation, and atomic absorption spectrophotometry (US EPA method 7473). The trial is registered in ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02610959.

RESULTS

Post-intervention, the intervention group had median (inter-quartile range) THHg concentrations of 554 (392-805) µg/kg, and the control group 485 (341-740) µg/kg (p = 0.186). When adjusting for baseline THHg concentrations, there was a significant difference between the groups in those participants with baseline THHg concentrations below 534 µg/kg. Post-intervention, 8% of the study population exceeded the US EPA reference dose in hair (1,000 µg/kg) (intervention group: n = 6, control group: n = 4).

CONCLUSION

THHg concentrations were generally low in both study groups of pregnant women, despite the relatively high seafood intake. While the intervention with 400 g of cod per week slightly increased THHg concentrations, it did not lead to an increase in number of subjects exceeding the US EPA reference dose; a dose level at which no adverse effects are expected to occur over a period of lifetime exposure.

Estimation of the Burden of Iron Deficiency Anemia in France from Iron Intake: Methodological Approach

: Dietary iron deficiency (ID) is the first nutritional deficiency in the world, in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALY). This nutritional deficiency may lead to anemia, especially among children, adolescents, and adult women. The aim of this study was to build an original probabilistic model to quantitatively assess the ID, the iron deficiency anemia (IDA) and the subsequent health burden in France expressed in DALY, per age class and gender. The model considered the distribution of absorbed iron intake, the iron requirement distribution established by the European Food Safety Authority and the iron status in France. Uncertainty due to lack of data and variability due to biological diversity were taken into account and separated using a second-order Monte Carlo procedure. A total of 1290 (95% CI = 1230-1350) IDA cases corresponding to 16 (95% CI = 11-20) DALY were estimated per 100,000 individuals per year. The major contributors to IDA burden were menstruating females aged from 25 to 44 years old. Then, a consumption scenario was built with ground beef as intake, an increase in red meat consumption to 100 g/d would not eliminate entirely the IDA burden. The quantitative methodology applied here for France could be reused for other populations.

Optimising healthy and safe fish intake recommendations: a trade-off between personal preference and cost

Individuals may perceive personalised dietary advice as more relevant and motivational than national guidelines. Personal preference and food cost are factors that can affect consumer decisions. The objective of this study was to present a method for modelling and analysing the trade-off between deviation from preference and food cost for optimised personalised dietary recommendations. Quadratic programming was applied to minimise deviation from fish preference and cost simultaneously with different weights on the cost for 3016 Danish adults (whose dietary intake and body weight were recorded in a national dietary survey). Model constraints included recommendations for EPA, DHA and vitamin D and tolerable levels for methyl mercury, dioxins and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls. When only minimising deviation from preference, 50 % of the study population should be recommended to increase fish intake, 48 % should be suggested to maintain current consumption and 2 % should be suggested to decrease fish consumption. When only minimising cost, the vast majority (99 %) should be recommended to only consume herring, which is the least-expensive fish species. By minimising deviation from preference and cost simultaneously with different weights on the cost, personalised optimal trade-off curves between deviation from fish intake preference and fish cost could be generated for each individual in our study population, except for twenty-two individuals (0·7 %) whose contaminant background exposure was too high. In the future, the method of this paper could be applied in the personal communication of healthy and safe food recommendations that fit the preferences of individual consumers.

Estimation of the burden of disease attributable to red meat consumption in France: Influence on colorectal cancer and cardiovascular diseases

The consumption of red meat has been associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) worldwide. The objective of this study was to assess quantitatively the burden of disease of CRC and CVD due to the consumption of red meat in France. A probabilistic risk assessment model quantifying the risk, deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALY) of both outcomes was built. In the model, uncertainty and variability were propagated separately. The model used data on current CRC and CVD incidence and red meat consumption in France, as well as dose-response from epidemiological studies. Results were given by age class and gender. A total of 19 [95% CI = 8-33] DALY per 100,000 people per year for CRC associated with red meat consumption was estimated. For CVD, 21 [95% CI = 12-32] DALY per 100,000 people per year was estimated. The uncertainty was mainly due to the dose-response, as revealed by a sensitivity analysis. A scenario analysis, performed on red meat intake, highlighted that consumption of less than 65 g per day could limit the risk of CRC and CVD in the most affected sub-populations.

A probabilistic approach for risk-benefit assessment of food substitutions: A case study on substituting meat by fish

Accounting for substitution of foods is inevitable when evaluating health impact of dietary changes. But substitution behavior and the associated health impact may vary between individuals. We therefore propose the use of probabilistic methods to model substitution and assess health impact distributions in risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods. We investigated the health impact of substituting red and processed meat with fish in the Danish adult population and the variability in health impact. We applied probabilistic approaches in modeling the substitution to reflect variability between individual substitution behaviors. Furthermore, when multiple intake scenarios are compared, we propose a method for adjusting intake differences for individual day-to-day variability. We estimated that 134 (95% UI: 102; 169) Disability-Adjusted Life Years/100,000 were averted per year by the substitution. The health impact varied considerably by age and sex, with the largest health benefit of the substitution observed for young women in the child-bearing age and for the older generation, mainly men. This study provides further insight in how the health impact of substituting meat by fish varies between individuals and suggests a framework to be applied in RBAs of other food substitutions. Our results are relevant for policy makers in defining targeted public health strategies.

Substitution of Fish for Red Meat or Poultry and Risk of Ischemic Stroke

We investigated the risk of ischemic stroke and its subtypes when red meat or poultry was substituted with fish. A total of 57,053 participants aged 50⁻65 years at baseline were included in the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health study. All participants filled in a food-frequency questionnaire at recruitment. Potential ischemic stroke cases were identified by linkage to the Danish National Patient Register, and all cases were validated and subclassified. Substitutions were investigated as 150 g/week of fish for 150 g/week of red meat or of poultry using multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models. During 13.5 years of follow-up, 1879 participants developed an ischemic stroke. Replacing red meat or poultry with fish was not associated with the rate of total ischemic stroke, but there was a statistically significant lower rate of large artery atherosclerosis when fish replaced processed (hazard ratio (HR): 0.78; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.67; 0.90) and unprocessed (HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.75; 0.99) red meat. A statistically significant higher rate of cardioembolism was found when poultry was replaced by total fish (HR: 1.42; 95% CI: 1.04; 1.93). When fatty fish replaced unprocessed red meat, a statistically significant lower rate of small-vessel occlusion was found (HR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.77; 0.99). In conclusion, replacing red meat with fish was not associated with risk of total ischemic stroke but was associated with a lower risk of subtypes of ischemic stroke.

Risk Benefit Assessment of foods: Key findings from an international workshop

Whilst risk management measures, including food policy, are developed for the protection of public health and the environment, they may also lead to a reduction in health benefits. Policy decisions require then consideration of these necessary trade-offs, which leads to an increasing need to apply formal risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods. In this context, the European Food Safety Authority sponsored a Risk-Benefit Assessment Workshop on "past, current and future developments within the risk-benefit assessment of foods (RBA)" held in May 2017. The overall aims of the RBA Workshop were to discuss existing methods, challenges and needs within RBA, and to draft a roadmap for future development of RBA. The specific objectives were to i) identify RBA activities in Europe and globally; ii) discuss how to further develop and optimize RBA methodology; iii) identify challenges and opportunities within RBA; and iv) increase collaboration internationally. The two-day workshop gathered 28 participants from 16 institutions in 11 countries. It included technical presentations of RBA methods and case studies, and two break-out sessions for group discussions. All participants agreed that RBA has substantial potential to inform risk-management decisions in the areas of food safety, nutrition and public health. Several activities to optimize further developments within RBA were suggested. This paper provides a summary of workshop presentations, a discussion of challenges that limit progress in this area, and suggestions of next steps for this promising approach supporting a science-based decision process in the area of risk-benefit management of foods.