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Rabett RJ, Morimoto R, Kahlert T, Stimpson CM, O’Donnell S, Mai Huong NT, Manh BV, Holmes R, Khánh PS, Van TT, Coward F. Prehistoric pathways to Anthropocene adaptation: Evidence from the Red River Delta, Vietnam. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0280126. [PMID: 36753481 PMCID: PMC9907861 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0280126] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2022] [Accepted: 12/20/2022] [Indexed: 02/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Over the past twenty years, government advisory bodies have placed increasing emphasis on the need for adaptive measures in response to the effects of human-induced climate change. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which incorporate macroeconomic and climate variables, feature prominently in advisory content, though they rarely draw on data from outside strictly constrained hypothetical systems. This has led to assertions that they are not well-suited to approximate complex systemic human-environment processes. Modular, interdisciplinary approaches have offered a way to address this shortcoming; however, beyond climate records, prehistoric data continue to be under-utilised in developing such models. In this paper we highlight the contribution that archaeology and palaeoecology can make to the development of the next generation IAMs that are expected to enhance provision for more local and pro-active adaptations to future climate change. We present data from one of Southeast Asia's most heavily developed river deltas: the Red River (Song Hong) Delta, in Vietnam and localised analysis from the Tràng An Landscape Complex World Heritage Site, on the delta's southern margin. Comparison is made between Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) 5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 emission projection models and the Mid-Holocene inundation of the Red River Basin. We highlight the value to taking a scientific long view of coastal evolution through an illustrative set of eight research foci where palaeo-data can bring new and localised empirical data to bear on future risk management planning. We proceed to demonstrate the applicability of palaeoenvironmental, zooarchaeological and historical evidence to management and the development of sustainable conservation strategies using Tràng An as a case study. In so doing, we further highlight the importance of knowledge exchange between scientific, corporate, non-governmental, local, and state stakeholders to achieve tangible results on the ground.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryan J. Rabett
- Archaeology & Palaeoecology, School of Natural & Built Environment, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, United Kingdom
- Institute for Hellenic Culture & the Liberal Arts, The American College of Greece, Athens, Greece
- * E-mail:
| | - Risa Morimoto
- Department of Economics, School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Thorsten Kahlert
- Centre for Geographic Information Science and Geomatics, School of Natural & Built Environment, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, United Kingdom
| | | | - Shawn O’Donnell
- Department of Geography & Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle Upon Tyne, United Kingdom
| | | | - Bui Van Manh
- Department of Tourism, Ninh Bình City, Ninh Bình Province, Vietnam
| | - Rachael Holmes
- School of Geography, Geology & the Environment, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom
| | - Phạm Sinh Khánh
- Tràng An Landscape Complex Management Board, Ninh Bình City, Ninh Bình Province, Vietnam
| | - Tran Tan Van
- Vietnam Institute of Geosciences & Mineral Resources, Ministry of Natural Resources & Environment, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Fiona Coward
- Department of Archaeology, Anthropology & Forensic Science, Faculty of Science & Technology Bournemouth University, Poole, Dorset, United Kingdom
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