Why coastal upwelling is expected to increase along the western Iberian Peninsula over the next century?

The dawn of the tropical Atlantic invasion into the Mediterranean Sea

The Mediterranean Sea is a marine biodiversity hotspot already affected by climate-driven biodiversity collapses. Its highly endemic fauna is at further risk if global warming triggers an invasion of tropical Atlantic species. Here, we combine modern species occurrences with a unique paleorecord from the Last Interglacial (135 to 116 ka), a conservative analog of future climate, to model the future distribution of an exemplary subset of tropical West African mollusks, currently separated from the Mediterranean by cold upwelling off north-west Africa. We show that, already under an intermediate climate scenario (RCP 4.5) by 2050, climatic connectivity along north-west Africa may allow tropical species to colonize a by then largely environmentally suitable Mediterranean. The worst-case scenario RCP 8.5 leads to a fully tropicalized Mediterranean by 2100. The tropical Atlantic invasion will add to the ongoing Indo-Pacific invasion through the Suez Canal, irreversibly transforming the entire Mediterranean into a novel ecosystem unprecedented in human history.

Temperature and salinity trends in the northern limit of the Canary Current Upwelling System

Thermohaline time series are crucial for detecting and quantifying abiotic changes in the marine environment, and even more so in the present global change scenario. This is particularly relevant for the Ría the Vigo and its adjacent shelf, a highly productive ecosystem at the northern limit of the Canary Current Upwelling System (CanCUS). This study analyses a 34-year time series (1987-2020) of Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD) casts, the longest series available to date in the region. Long-term trends, shifts, and seasonal variability of temperature and salinity were assessed and investigated in relation to regional meteorological variability and basin-scale atmospheric teleconnection indices. Generalized Additive Models (GAM) allowed us to determine that monthly thermohaline variability can be largely explained by regional meteo-climatic variability, mainly upwelling index and river discharge. Trends and shifts in some teleconnection patterns, especially the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, may also be related to both the shift in salinity in 2013 and its long-term decrease below 50 m depth. Despite the current global warming context, no statistically significant trend was observed for either the upwelling index or temperature. The spatial analysis of sea surface temperature trends suggests that our study area has been responding to climate change differently from other surrounding near-shore areas, as the Finisterre Cape or the southern Bay of Biscay. Overall, this study highlights the importance of long-term observations to elucidate the impact of climate change in the northern limit of the CanCUS and encourages caution when extrapolating conclusions from ecosystem studies on a regional scale.

Seasonality of coastal upwelling trends in the Mauritania-Senegalese region under RCP8.5 climate change scenario

The Mauritania-Senegalese upwelling region (MSUR), the southernmost region of the Canary current upwelling system, is well-known for its coastal productivity and the key role it plays in enriching the oligotrophic open ocean through the offshore transport of the upwelled coastal waters. The great ecological and socio-economic importance makes it necessary to evaluate the impact of climate change on this region. Hence, our main objective is to examine the climate change signal over the MSUR with a high resolution regional climate system model (RCSM) forced by the Earth system model MPI-ESM-LR under RCP8.5 scenario. This RCSM has a regional atmosphere model (REMO) coupled to a global ocean model (MPIOM) with high-resolution in the MSUR, which allows us to evaluate the wind pattern, the ocean stratification, as well as the upwelling source water depth, while maintaining an ocean global domain. Under RCP8.5 scenario, our results show that the upwelling favourable winds of the northern MSUR are year-round intensified, while the southern MSUR presents a strengthening in winter and a weakening in March-April. Along with changes in the wind pattern, we found increased ocean stratification in the spring months. In those months southern MSUR presents a shallowing of the upwelling source water depth associated to changes in both mechanisms. However, in winter the whole MSUR shows a deepening of the upwelling source water depth due to the intensification of the upwelling favourable winds, with the increased ocean stratification playing a secondary role. Our results demonstrate the need to evaluate the future evolution of coastal upwelling systems taking into account their latitudinal and seasonal variability and the joint contribution of both mechanisms.

Climate Change Impacts on Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems

The world's eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs) contribute disproportionately to global ocean productivity and provide critical ecosystem services to human society. The impact of climate change on EBUSs and the ecosystems they support is thus a subject of considerable interest. Here, we review hypotheses of climate-driven change in the physics, biogeochemistry, and ecology of EBUSs; describe observed changes over recent decades; and present projected changes over the twenty-first century. Similarities in historical and projected change among EBUSs include a trend toward upwelling intensification in poleward regions, mitigatedwarming in near-coastal regions where upwelling intensifies, and enhanced water-column stratification and a shoaling mixed layer. However, there remains significant uncertainty in how EBUSs will evolve with climate change, particularly in how the sometimes competing changes in upwelling intensity, source-water chemistry, and stratification will affect productivity and ecosystem structure. We summarize the commonalities and differences in historical and projected change in EBUSs and conclude with an assessment of key remaining uncertainties and questions. Future studies will need to address these questions to better understand, project, and adapt to climate-driven changes in EBUSs.

Historical and future naturalization of Magallana gigas in the Galician coast in a context of climate change

Magallana gigas is a naturalized species on the north coast of Galicia (Rías Altas, Northwest Iberian Peninsula), where it was unintentionally introduced. In recent decades, a greater abundance of M. gigas has been observed on the Galician coast, expanding towards the south, reaching the Artabro Gulf (Rías Centrales, NW Galician coast), probably due to ocean warming. Although this species has been cultivated in the Rías Baixas since the early 1990s and spawning has been reported, recruitment was never observed, which is likely due to the cold water upwelled during the spawning months. The future rise in seawater temperature may favor the naturalization of the non-indigenous species M. gigas southwards, in the Rías Baixas. Thermally, the Ría de Arousa seems to be the most favorable estuary for the future settlement of M. gigas, which may occur in the next decades. The extent of thermally favorable zones within estuaries is projected to increase rapidly by mid-century, and reaching 100 % of the estuarine area by the end of the century. As has already happened in other areas of the world, the expansion and naturalization of the Pacific oyster on the Galician coast will likely affect the native communities and economic activities, making it necessary to implement monitoring and management strategies to mitigate its effect.

Evaluation of SMOS L4 Sea Surface Salinity Product in the Western Iberian Coast

Salinity is one of the oldest parameters being measured in oceanography and one of the most important to study in the context of climate change. However, its quantification by satellite remote sensing has been a relatively recent achievement. Currently, after over ten years of data gathering, there are still many challenges in quantifying salinity from space, especially when it is intended for coastal environments study. That is mainly due to the spatial resolution of the available products. Recently, a new higher resolution (5 km) L4 SMOS sea surface salinity (SSS) product was developed by the Barcelona Expert Center (BEC). In this study, the quality of this product was tested along the Western Iberian Coast through its comparison with in situ observations and modelled salinity estimates (CMEMS IBI Ocean Reanalysis system). Moreover, several parameters such as the temperature and depth of in situ measurements were tested to identify the variables or processes that induced higher errors in the product or influenced its performance. Lastly, a seasonal and interannual analysis was conducted considering data between 2011 to 2019 to test the product as a potential tool for long-term studies. The results obtained in the present analysis showed a high potential of using the L4 BEC SSS SMOS product in extended temporal and spatial analyses along the Portuguese coast. A good correlation between the satellite and the in situ datasets was observed, and the satellite dataset showed lower errors in retrieving coastal salinities than the oceanic model. Overall, the distance to the coast and the closest rivers were the factors that most influenced the quality of the product. The present analysis showed that great progress has been made in deriving coastal salinity over the years and that the SMOS SSS product is a valuable contribution to worldwide climatological studies. In addition, these results reinforce the need to continue developing satellite remote sensing products as a global and cost-effective methodology for long-term studies.

Modeling the impact of climate change on mussel aquaculture in a coastal upwelling system: A critical assessment

Forecasting of climate change impacts on marine aquaculture production has become a major research task, which requires taking into account the biases and uncertainties arising from ocean climate models in coastal areas, as well as considering culture management strategies. Focusing on the suspended mussel culture in the NW Iberian coastal upwelling system, we simulated current and future mussel growth by means of a multistructural net production Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model. We considered two scenarios and three ocean climate models to account for climate uncertainty, and applied a bias correction to the climate models in coastal areas. Our results show that the predicted impact of climate change on mussel growth is low compared with the role of the seeding time. However, the response of mussels varied across climate models, ranging from a minor growth decline to a moderate growth increase. Therefore, this work confirms that an accurate forecasting of climate change impacts on shellfish aquaculture should take into account the variability linked to both management strategies and climate uncertainty.

An upwelling area as a hot spot for mercury biomonitoring in a climate change scenario: A case study with large demersal fishes from Southeast Atlantic (SE-Brazil)

Data concerning the monomethylmercury (MeHg) bioaccumulation in marine biota from Southeast Atlantic Ocean are scarce. This study purchased large specimens of demersal fishes from an upwelling region: Warsaw grouper (Epinephelus nigritus), Dusky grouper (Epinephelus marginatus) and Namorado sandperch (Pseudopercis numida). The authors addressed the bioaccumulation and toxicokinetic of mercury in fish organs, and the toxicological risk for human consumption of this metal in the muscle tissues accessed. Additionally, the present study discussed the possible implications of shifts in key variables of the environment related to a climate-changing predicted scenario, to the mercury biomagnification in a tropical upwelling system. The muscle was the main stock of MeHg, although the highest THg concentrations have been found in liver tissue. Regarding the acceptable maximum level (ML = 1 mg kg^-1), E. nigritus and E. marginatus showed 22% of the samples above this limit. Concerning P. numida, 77% were above 0.5 mg kg^-1, but below the ML. The %MeHg in liver and muscle showed no significative correlations, which suggest independent biochemical pathways to the toxicokinetic of MeHg, and constrains the indirect assessment of the mercury contamination in the edible tissue by the liver analyses. The present study highlights the food web features of a tropical upwelling ecosystem that promote mercury biomagnification. Additionally, recent studies endorse the enhancement of upwelling phenomenon due to the climate global changes which boost the pumping of mercury enriched water to the oceanic upper layer. Therefore, the upwelling areas might be hot spots for MeHg monitoring in marine biota.

Economic Feasibility of Floating Offshore Wind Farms Considering Near Future Wind Resources: Case Study of Iberian Coast and Bay of Biscay

Wind energy resources are subject to changes in climate, so the use of wind energy density projections in the near future is essential to determine the viability and profitability of wind farms at particular locations. Thus, a step forward in determining the economic assessment of floating offshore wind farms was taken by considering current and near-future wind energy resources in assessing the main parameters that determine the economic viability (net present value, internal rate of return, and levelized cost of energy) of wind farms. This study was carried out along the Atlantic coast from Brest to Cape St. Vincent. Results show that the future reduction in wind energy density (2%–6%) mainly affects the net present value (NPV) of the farm and has little influence on the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). This study provides a good estimate of the economic viability of OWFs (Offshore Wind Farms) by taking into account how wind resources can vary due to climate change over the lifetime of the farm.

Assessing Phytoplankton Bloom Phenology in Upwelling-Influenced Regions Using Ocean Color Remote Sensing

Phytoplankton bloom phenology studies are fundamental for the understanding of marine ecosystems. Mismatches between fish spawning and plankton peak biomass will become more frequent with climate change, highlighting the need for thorough phenology studies in coastal areas. This study was the first to assess phytoplankton bloom phenology in the Western Iberian Coast (WIC), a complex coastal region in SW Europe, using a multisensor long-term ocean color remote sensing dataset with daily resolution. Using surface chlorophyll a (chl-a) and biogeophysical datasets, five phenoregions (i.e., areas with coherent phenology patterns) were defined. Oceanic phytoplankton communities were seen to form long, low-biomass spring blooms, mainly influenced by atmospheric phenomena and water column conditions. Blooms in northern waters are more akin to the classical spring bloom, while blooms in southern waters typically initiate in late autumn and terminate in late spring. Coastal phytoplankton are characterized by short, high-biomass, highly heterogeneous blooms, as nutrients, sea surface height, and horizontal water transport are essential in shaping phenology. Wind-driven upwelling and riverine input were major factors influencing bloom phenology in the coastal areas. This work is expected to contribute to the management of the WIC and other upwelling systems, particularly under the threat of climate change.

The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of habitat-forming macroalgae in the Rías Baixas

In the current scenario of climate change characterized by a generalized warming, many species are facing local extinctions in areas with conditions near their thermal tolerance threshold. At present, the southern limit of the geographical distribution of several habitat-forming algae of cold-temperate affinities is located in the Northwest Iberian Peninsula, and the Rías Baixas may be acting as contemporary refugia at the range edge. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze future changes induced by ocean warming in this area that may induce changes in macroalgae populations. The Delft3D-Flow model forced with climatic data was used to calculate July-August sea surface temperature (SST) for the present (1999-2018) and for the far future (2080-2099). Mean daily SST was used to develop and calibrate a mechanistic geographical distribution model based on the thermal survival threshold of two intertidal habitat-forming macroalgae, namely Himanthalia elongata (L.) S.F.Gray and Bifurcaria bifurcata R. Ross. Results show that H. elongata will become extinct in the Rías Baixas by the end of the century, while B. bifurcata will persist and may occupy potential free space left by the decline in H. elongata.

Food-web interactions in a coastal ecosystem influenced by upwelling and terrestrial runoff off North-West Spain

Ecopath with Ecosim has been used to create mass-balance models of different type of ecosystems around the world to explore and analyse their functioning and structure. This modelling framework has become a key tool in the ecosystem approach to fisheries management, by providing a more comprehensive and holistic understanding of the interactions between the different species. Additionally, Ecopath with Ecosim has provided a useful framework to study ecosystem maturity, changes in the ecosystem functioning over time and the impact of fisheries and aquaculture on the ecosystem, among other aspects. The present work explores the ecosystem functioning and structure in an anthropogenically impacted coastal area, influenced by seasonal coastal upwelling and high input of nutrients from rias (ancient drowned tectonic valleys) off North-West Spain. A mass-balance model with 23 functional groups was created using Ecopath to study the trophic interactions in the ecosystem during the post-upwelling period (August to October) in 2017. The model described an immature, wasp-waist ecosystem, that shared characteristics of ecosystems found in upwelling areas and ecosystems found in fjords or coastal embayments. Deeper analyses highlighted the importance of small planktivorous pelagic fish as a keystone functional group, and of zooplankton, blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) and phytoplankton as structuring groups in the ecosystem. Additionally, the study revealed that the existing fishing pressure on species of intermediate-high trophic levels could alter ecosystem functioning and structure, and ultimately affect top predators in the area. Findings of this study provide baseline information in ecosystem functioning and structure in the area and highlight the need to deeper study the effects of fisheries and their potential impacts on top predators.

How can ocean warming at the NW Iberian Peninsula affect mussel aquaculture?

Understanding and forecasting future consequences of climate change in mussel aquaculture industry require the assessment of changes in physical parameters which may affect mussel growth. The FLOW module of Delft3D model forced with climatic data was validated and calibrated for the Rías Baixas (NW Iberian Peninsula), one of the areas with the highest mussel production in the world. This model was used to perform historical (1999-2018) and future (2080-2099) projections. Temperature and stratification water conditions were compared in order to determine at what extent climate change can affect mussel production. Thermal stress will increase in a non-homogeneous throughout the water column and the comfort level of mussels will be reduced by more than 60% in the upper layers and more than 30% in deep layers in most of the mussel raft polygons. Water column stratification will increase ~ 5-10 cycles h^-1 in most of the polygons reducing the vertical exchange of nutrients and oxygen. Hereby changes in water temperature and stratification at the end of the century will not be favorable for mussel growth.

NW Iberian Peninsula coastal upwelling future weakening: Competition between wind intensification and surface heating

Climate change will modify the oceanographic future properties of the NW Iberian Peninsula due to the projected variations in the meteorological forcing, that will intensify local winds and promote surface heating. The Delft3D-Flow model forced with atmospheric conditions provided within the framework of the CORDEX project under the RCP 8.5 greenhouse emission scenario was used to analyse changes in upwelling. Numerical experiments were conducted under high-extreme upwelling conditions for the historical (1976-2005) and future (2070-2099) period. This study also innovates through the exploitation of a numerical modelling approach that includes both shelf and estuarine processes along the coastal zone. Coastal upwelling will be less effective in the future despite the enhancement of upwelling favorable wind patterns previously predicted for this region. Upwelling weakening is due to the future sea surface warming that will increase the stratification of the upper layers hindering the upward displacement of the underlying water, reducing the surface input of nutrients.

Unexpected nutrient influence on the thermal ecophysiology of seaweeds that recently followed opposite abundance shifts

World's oceans are warming, and recent studies suggest that the Iberian upwelling system may be weakening. To understand the potential consequences of both trends, six intertidal seaweeds that recently followed opposite upward and downward abundance shifts in the Iberian upwelling region were exposed for six weeks to conditions simulating present and warmed scenarios, combined with nutrient treatments emulating the influence and absence of the upwelling. Unlike expectations, a high nutrient supply did not ameliorate the effects of warming. Instead, warming slowed down growth in four seaweeds and accelerated the photosynthesis of downward seaweeds only if nutrients were abundant. In a weakened upwelling scenario, nutrient limitation might more strongly influence the performance of both upward and downward seaweeds than warming. With a normally functioning upwelling, warming might be more detrimental to the performance of some downward seaweeds as they might would lose their ability to benefit from the extra nutrient input.

Coastal warming and wind-driven upwelling: A global analysis

Long-term sea surface temperature (SST) warming trends are far from being homogeneous, especially when coastal and ocean locations are compared. Using data from NOAA's AVHRR OISST, we have analyzed sea surface temperature trends over the period 1982-2015 at around 3500 worldwide coastal points and their oceanic counterparts with a spatial resolution of 0.25 arc-degrees. Significant warming was observed at most locations although with important differences between oceanic and coastal points. This is especially patent for upwelling regions, where 92% of the coastal locations showed lower warming trends than at neighboring ocean locations. This result strongly suggests that upwelling has the potential to buffer the effects of global warming nearshore, with wide oceanographic, climatic, and biogeographic implications.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of Codium populations along the rocky shores of N and NW Spain

The green alga Codium fragile ssp. fragile (hereafter C. fragile) has long been assumed to outcompete and displace its native congeners via cryptic invasion. We analysed the population dynamics of the exotic C. fragile and native congeners and their relative abundance on intertidal shores in N-NW Spain. Our results did not support the existence of current competitive displacement by the exotic species. The presence of C. fragile was clearly seasonal, while the native C. tomentosum was more persistent throughout the year, due to a higher frequency of frond sprouting from perennial basal fragments. However, our results also indicated an increase in the proportion of C. fragile relative to native species towards inner areas of the Bay of Biscay, which was correlated with environmental gradients. The greater tolerance of C. fragile to environmental stress and its opportunistic abilities may favour establishment and spread of the species under a warming scenario.