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Wei P, Hao S, Shi Y, Anand A, Wang Y, Chu M, Ning Z. Combining Google traffic map with deep learning model to predict street-level traffic-related air pollutants in a complex urban environment. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 191:108992. [PMID: 39250881 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108992] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2024] [Revised: 08/26/2024] [Accepted: 08/29/2024] [Indexed: 09/11/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) is a major contributor to urban pollution and varies sharply at the street level, posing a challenge for air quality modeling. Traditional land use regression models combined with data from fixed monitoring stations may be unable to predict and characterize fine-scale TRAP, especially in complex urban environments influenced by various features. This study aims to estimate fine-scale (50 m) concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NO and NO₂) in Hong Kong using a deep learning (DL) structured model. METHODS We collected data from mobile air quality sensors on buses and crowd-sourced Google real-time traffic status as a proxy for real-time traffic emissions. Our DL model was compared with existing machine learning models to assess performance improvements. Using an interpretable machine learning method, we hierarchically evaluated the global, local, and interaction effects for different features. RESULTS Our DL model outperformed existing machine learning models, achieving R2 values of 0.72 for NO and 0.69 for NO₂. The incorporation of traffic status as a key predictor improved model performance by 9% to 17%. The interpretable machine learning method revealed the importance of traffic-related features and their pairwise interactions. CONCLUSION The results indicate that traffic-related features significantly contribute to TRAP and provide insights and guidance for urban planning. By incorporating crowd-sourced Google traffic information, we assessed traffic abatement scenarios that could inform targeted strategies for improving urban air quality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peng Wei
- College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan, China; Division of Environment and Sustainability, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China
| | - Song Hao
- State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
| | - Yuan Shi
- Department of Geography & Planning, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
| | - Abhishek Anand
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, United States
| | - Ya Wang
- Division of Environment and Sustainability, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China
| | - Mengyuan Chu
- Division of Environment and Sustainability, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China
| | - Zhi Ning
- Division of Environment and Sustainability, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China.
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Yuan Z, Kerckhoffs J, Li H, Khan J, Hoek G, Vermeulen R. Hyperlocal Air Pollution Mapping: A Scalable Transfer Learning LUR Approach for Mobile Monitoring. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2024; 58:14372-14383. [PMID: 39082120 PMCID: PMC11325550 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.4c06144] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/17/2024]
Abstract
Addressing the challenge of mapping hyperlocal air pollution in areas without local monitoring, we evaluated unsupervised transfer learning-based land-use regression (LUR) models developed using mobile monitoring data from other cities: CORrelation ALignment (Coral) and its inverse distance-weighted modification (IDW_Coral). These models mitigated domain shifts and transferred patterns learned from mobile air quality monitoring campaigns in Copenhagen and Rotterdam to estimate annual average air pollution levels in Amsterdam (50m road segments) without involving any Amsterdam measurements in model development. For nitrogen dioxide (NO2), IDW_Coral outperformed Copenhagen and Rotterdam LUR models directly applied to Amsterdam, achieving MAE (4.47 μg/m3) and RMSE (5.36 μg/m3) comparable to a locally fitted LUR model (AMS_SLR) developed using Amsterdam mobile measurements collected for 160 days. IDW_Coral yielded an R2 of 0.35, similar to that of the AMS_SLR based on 20 collection days, suggesting a minimum requirement of 20-day mobile monitoring to capture city-specific insights. For ultrafine particles (UFP), IDW_Coral's citywide predictions strongly correlated with previously published mixed-effect models fitted with 160-day Amsterdam measurements (Pearson correlation of 0.71 for UFP and 0.72 for NO2). IDW_Coral demands no direct measurements in the target area, showcasing its potential for large-scale applications and offering significant economic efficiencies in executing mobile monitoring campaigns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhendong Yuan
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht University, 3584 CM Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Jules Kerckhoffs
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht University, 3584 CM Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Hao Li
- Professorship of Big Geospatial Data Management, Technical University of Munich, 85521 Ottobrunn, Germany
| | - Jibran Khan
- Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark
- Danish Big Data Centre for Environment and Health (BERTHA), Aarhus University, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Gerard Hoek
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht University, 3584 CM Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Roel Vermeulen
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht University, 3584 CM Utrecht, Netherlands
- Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre, Utrecht University, 3584 CX Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Zalzal J, Minet L, Brook J, Mihele C, Chen H, Hatzopoulou M. Capturing Exposure Disparities with Chemical Transport Models: Evaluating the Suitability of Downscaling Using Land Use Regression. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2024. [PMID: 39092553 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.4c03725] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/04/2024]
Abstract
High resolution exposure surfaces are essential to capture disparities in exposure to traffic-related air pollution in urban areas. In this study, we develop an approach to downscale Chemical Transport Model (CTM) simulations to a hyperlocal level (∼100m) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) under three scenarios where emissions from cars, trucks and buses are zeroed out, thus capturing the burden of each transportation mode. This proposed approach statistically fuses CTMs with Land-Use Regression using machine learning techniques. With this proposed downscaling approach, changes in air pollutant concentrations under different scenarios are appropriately captured by downscaling factors that are trained to reflect the spatial distribution of emission reductions. Our validation analysis shows that high-resolution models resulted in better performance than coarse models when compared with observations at reference stations. We used this downscaling approach to assess disparities in exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) for populations composed of renters, low-income households, recent immigrants, and visible minorities. Individuals in all four categories were disproportionately exposed to the burden of cars, trucks, and buses. We conducted this analysis at spatial resolutions of 12, 4, 1 km, and 100 m and observed that disparities were significantly underestimated when using coarse spatial resolutions. This reinforces the need for high-spatial resolution exposure surfaces for environmental justice analyses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jad Zalzal
- Department of Civil & Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St George Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4, Canada
| | - Laura Minet
- Department of Civil Engineering, University of Victoria, 3800 Finnerty Road, Victoria, British Columbia V8P 5C2, Canada
| | - Jeffrey Brook
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, Toronto, Ontario M5T 3M7, Canada
| | - Cristian Mihele
- Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, North York, Ontario M3H 5T4, Canada
| | - Hong Chen
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, Toronto, Ontario M5T 3M7, Canada
- Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, 50 Colombine Driveway, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0K9, Canada
- Public Health Ontario, 480 University Avenue, Toronto, Ontario M5G 1 V2, Canada
- ICES, 2075 Bayview Avenue, Toronto, Ontario M4N 3M5, Canada
| | - Marianne Hatzopoulou
- Department of Civil & Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St George Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4, Canada
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Amini H, Bergmann ML, Taghavi Shahri SM, Tayebi S, Cole-Hunter T, Kerckhoffs J, Khan J, Meliefste K, Lim YH, Mortensen LH, Hertel O, Reeh R, Gaarde Nielsen C, Loft S, Vermeulen R, Andersen ZJ, Schwartz J. Harnessing AI to unmask Copenhagen's invisible air pollutants: A study on three ultrafine particle metrics. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (BARKING, ESSEX : 1987) 2024; 346:123664. [PMID: 38431246 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2024.123664] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2023] [Revised: 02/08/2024] [Accepted: 02/25/2024] [Indexed: 03/05/2024]
Abstract
Ultrafine particles (UFPs) are airborne particles with a diameter of less than 100 nm. They are emitted from various sources, such as traffic, combustion, and industrial processes, and can have adverse effects on human health. Long-term mean ambient average particle size (APS) in the UFP range varies over space within cities, with locations near UFP sources having typically smaller APS. Spatial models for lung deposited surface area (LDSA) within urban areas are limited and currently there is no model for APS in any European city. We collected particle number concentration (PNC), LDSA, and APS data over one-year monitoring campaign from May 2021 to May 2022 across 27 locations and estimated annual mean in Copenhagen, Denmark, and obtained additionally annual mean PNC data from 6 state-owned continuous monitors. We developed 94 predictor variables, and machine learning models (random forest and bagged tree) were developed for PNC, LDSA, and APS. The annual mean PNC, LDSA, and APS were, respectively, 5523 pt/cm3, 12.0 μm2/cm3, and 46.1 nm. The final R2 values by random forest (RF) model were 0.93 for PNC, 0.88 for LDSA, and 0.85 for APS. The 10-fold, repeated 10-times cross-validation R2 values were 0.65, 0.67, and 0.60 for PNC, LDSA, and APS, respectively. The root mean square error for final RF models were 296 pt/cm3, 0.48 μm2/cm3, and 1.60 nm for PNC, LDSA, and APS, respectively. Traffic-related variables, such as length of major roads within buffers 100-150 m and distance to streets with various speed limits were amongst the highly-ranked predictors for our models. Overall, our ML models achieved high R2 values and low errors, providing insights into UFP exposure in a European city where average PNC is quite low. These hyperlocal predictions can be used to study health effects of UFPs in the Danish Capital.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heresh Amini
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Institute for Climate Change, Environmental Health, and Exposomics, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, United States; Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark; Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States.
| | - Marie L Bergmann
- Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | - Shali Tayebi
- Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Thomas Cole-Hunter
- Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Jules Kerckhoffs
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Utrecht University, the Netherlands
| | - Jibran Khan
- Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark; Danish Big Data Centre for Environment and Health (BERTHA), Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Kees Meliefste
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Utrecht University, the Netherlands
| | - Youn-Hee Lim
- Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Laust H Mortensen
- Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark; Statistics Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Ole Hertel
- Faculty of Technical Sciences, Aarhus University, Denmark
| | | | | | - Steffen Loft
- Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Roel Vermeulen
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Utrecht University, the Netherlands
| | - Zorana J Andersen
- Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States
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Ma X, Zou B, Deng J, Gao J, Longley I, Xiao S, Guo B, Wu Y, Xu T, Xu X, Yang X, Wang X, Tan Z, Wang Y, Morawska L, Salmond J. A comprehensive review of the development of land use regression approaches for modeling spatiotemporal variations of ambient air pollution: A perspective from 2011 to 2023. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 183:108430. [PMID: 38219544 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108430] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2023] [Revised: 11/26/2023] [Accepted: 01/04/2024] [Indexed: 01/16/2024]
Abstract
Land use regression (LUR) models are widely used in epidemiological and environmental studies to estimate humans' exposure to air pollution within urban areas. However, the early models, developed using linear regressions and data from fixed monitoring stations and passive sampling, were primarily designed to model traditional and criteria air pollutants and had limitations in capturing high-resolution spatiotemporal variations of air pollution. Over the past decade, there has been a notable development of multi-source observations from low-cost monitors, mobile monitoring, and satellites, in conjunction with the integration of advanced statistical methods and spatially and temporally dynamic predictors, which have facilitated significant expansion and advancement of LUR approaches. This paper reviews and synthesizes the recent advances in LUR approaches from the perspectives of the changes in air quality data acquisition, novel predictor variables, advances in model-developing approaches, improvements in validation methods, model transferability, and modeling software as reported in 155 LUR studies published between 2011 and 2023. We demonstrate that these developments have enabled LUR models to be developed for larger study areas and encompass a wider range of criteria and unregulated air pollutants. LUR models in the conventional spatial structure have been complemented by more complex spatiotemporal structures. Compared with linear models, advanced statistical methods yield better predictions when handling data with complex relationships and interactions. Finally, this study explores new developments, identifies potential pathways for further breakthroughs in LUR methodologies, and proposes future research directions. In this context, LUR approaches have the potential to make a significant contribution to future efforts to model the patterns of long- and short-term exposure of urban populations to air pollution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuying Ma
- College of Geomatics, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710054, China; College of Safety Science and Engineering, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710054, China; International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland 4000, Australia.
| | - Bin Zou
- School of Geosciences and Info-Physics, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410083, China.
| | - Jun Deng
- College of Safety Science and Engineering, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710054, China; Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Coal Fire, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710054, China
| | - Jay Gao
- School of Environment, Faculty of Science, University of Auckland, Auckland 1010, New Zealand
| | - Ian Longley
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Auckland 1010, New Zealand
| | - Shun Xiao
- School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, China
| | - Bin Guo
- College of Geomatics, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710054, China
| | - Yarui Wu
- College of Geomatics, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710054, China
| | - Tingting Xu
- School of Software Engineering, Chongqing University of Post and Telecommunications, Chongqing 400065, China
| | - Xin Xu
- Xi'an Institute for Innovative Earth Environment Research, Xi'an 710061, China
| | - Xiaosha Yang
- Shandong Nova Fitness Co., Ltd., Baoji, Shaanxi 722404, China
| | - Xiaoqi Wang
- College of Geomatics, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710054, China
| | - Zelei Tan
- College of Geomatics, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710054, China
| | - Yifan Wang
- College of Geomatics, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710054, China
| | - Lidia Morawska
- International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland 4000, Australia.
| | - Jennifer Salmond
- School of Environment, Faculty of Science, University of Auckland, Auckland 1010, New Zealand
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Quinteros ME, Blazquez C, Ayala S, Kilby D, Cárdenas-R JP, Ossa X, Rosas-Diaz F, Stone EA, Blanco E, Delgado-Saborit JM, Harrison RM, Ruiz-Rudolph P. Development of Spatio-Temporal Land Use Regression Models for Fine Particulate Matter and Wood-Burning Tracers in Temuco, Chile. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2023; 57:19473-19486. [PMID: 37976408 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.3c00720] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2023]
Abstract
Biomass burning is common in much of the world, and in some areas, residential wood-burning has increased. However, air pollution resulting from biomass burning is an important public health problem. A sampling campaign was carried out between May 2017 and July 2018 in over 64 sites in four sessions, to develop a spatio-temporal land use regression (LUR) model for fine particulate matter (PM) and wood-burning tracers levoglucosan and soluble potassium (Ksol) in a city heavily impacted by wood-burning. The mean (sd) was 46.5 (37.4) μg m-3 for PM2.5, 0.607 (0.538) μg m-3 for levoglucosan, and 0.635 (0.489) μg m-3 for Ksol. LUR models for PM2.5, levoglucosan, and Ksol had a satisfactory performance (LOSOCV R2), explaining 88.8%, 87.4%, and 87.3% of the total variance, respectively. All models included sociodemographic predictors consistent with the pattern of use of wood-burning in homes. The models were applied to predict concentrations surfaces and to estimate exposures for an epidemiological study.
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Affiliation(s)
- María Elisa Quinteros
- Departamento de Salud Pública, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Talca, Avenida Lircay s/n, Talca, 3460000, Chile
- Programa Doctorado en Salud Pública, Instituto de Salud Poblacional, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Chile, Independencia 939, Santiago, 1025000, Chile
| | - Carola Blazquez
- Department of Engineering Sciences, Universidad Andres Bello, Quillota 980, Viña del Mar, 2531015, Chile
| | - Salvador Ayala
- Programa Doctorado en Salud Pública, Instituto de Salud Poblacional, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Chile, Independencia 939, Santiago, 1025000, Chile
- Departamento Agencia Nacional de Dispositivos Médicos, Innovación y Desarrollo, Instituto de Salud Pública de Chile, Marathon 1000, Ñuñoa, Santiago 0000000000, Chile
| | - Dylan Kilby
- School of Public Health, University of Michigan, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109, United States
| | - Juan Pablo Cárdenas-R
- Departamento de Ingeniería en Obras Civiles, Universidad de La Frontera, Avenida Francisco Salazar 01145, Temuco, Chile
- Facultad de Arquitectura, Construcción y Medio Ambiente, Universidad Autónoma de Chile, Temuco 4810101, Chile
| | - Ximena Ossa
- Departamento de Salud Pública y Centro de Excelencia CIGES, Universidad de la Frontera, Caro Solar 115, Temuco, 4780000, Chile
| | - Felipe Rosas-Diaz
- Facultad de Ingeniería Civil, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, San Nicolás de Los Garza 66451, Nuevo León, México
| | - Elizabeth A Stone
- Department of Chemistry and Department of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa 52242, United States
| | - Estela Blanco
- Programa Doctorado en Salud Pública, Instituto de Salud Poblacional, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Chile, Independencia 939, Santiago, 1025000, Chile
- Centro de Investigación en Sociedad y Salud and Núcleo Milenio de Sociomedicina, Universidad Mayor, Santiago, 7510041, Chile
| | - Juana-María Delgado-Saborit
- Perinatal Epidemiology, Environmental Health and Clinical Research, School of Medicine, Universitat Jaume I, Avinguda de Vicent Sos Baynat, s/n, 12071 Castelló de la Plana, Castellon Spain
- Environmental Research Group, MRC Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2BX, United Kingdom
- Division of Environmental Health & Risk Management, School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston Birmingham B152TT, U.K
| | - Roy M Harrison
- Division of Environmental Health & Risk Management, School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston Birmingham B152TT, U.K
- Department of Environmental Sciences/Center of Excellence in Environmental Studies, King Abdulaziz University, PO Box 80203, Jeddah, 21589, Saudi Arabia
| | - Pablo Ruiz-Rudolph
- * Programa de Epidemiología, Instituto de Salud Poblacional, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Chile, Independencia 939, Santiago 1025000, Chile
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Lloyd M, Ganji A, Xu J, Venuta A, Simon L, Zhang M, Saeedi M, Yamanouchi S, Apte J, Hong K, Hatzopoulou M, Weichenthal S. Predicting spatial variations in annual average outdoor ultrafine particle concentrations in Montreal and Toronto, Canada: Integrating land use regression and deep learning models. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2023; 178:108106. [PMID: 37544265 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.108106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2023] [Revised: 06/28/2023] [Accepted: 07/19/2023] [Indexed: 08/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Concentrations of outdoor ultrafine particles (UFP; <0.1 µm) and black carbon (BC) can vary greatly within cities and long-term exposures to these pollutants have been associated with a variety of adverse health outcomes. OBJECTIVE This study integrated multiple approaches to develop new models to estimate within-city spatial variations in annual median (i.e. average) outdoor UFP and BC concentrations as well as mean UFP size in Canada's two largest cities, Montreal and Toronto. METHODS We conducted year-long mobile monitoring campaigns in each city that included evenings and weekends. We developed generalized additive models trained on land use parameters and deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) models trained on satellite-view images. Using predictions from these models, we developed final combined models. RESULTS In Toronto, the median observed UFP concentration, UFP size, and BC concentration values were 16,172pt/cm3, 33.7 nm, and 1225 ng/m3, respectively. In Montreal, the median observed UFP concentration, UFP size, and BC concentration values were 14,702pt/cm3, 29.7 nm, and 1060 ng/m3, respectively. For all pollutants in both cities, the proportion of spatial variation explained (i.e., R2) was slightly greater (1-2 percentage points) for the combined models than the generalized additive models and a greater (approximately 10 percentage points) than the deep CNN models. The Toronto combined model R2 values in the test set were 0.73, 0.55, and 0.61 for UFP concentrations, UFP size, and BC concentration, respectively. The Montreal combined model R2 values were 0.60, 0.49, and 0.60 for UFP concentration, UFP size, and BC concentration models respectively. For each pollutant, predictions from the combined, deep CNN, and generalized additive models were highly correlated with each other and differences between models were explored in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION Predictions from these models are available to support future epidemiological research examining long-term health impacts of outdoor UFPs and BC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marshall Lloyd
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Québec H3A 1G1, Canada.
| | - Arman Ganji
- Department of Civil and Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4, Canada.
| | - Junshi Xu
- Department of Civil and Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4, Canada.
| | - Alessya Venuta
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Québec H3A 1G1, Canada.
| | - Leora Simon
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Québec H3A 1G1, Canada.
| | - Mingqian Zhang
- Department of Civil and Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4, Canada.
| | - Milad Saeedi
- Department of Civil and Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4, Canada.
| | - Shoma Yamanouchi
- Department of Civil and Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4, Canada.
| | - Joshua Apte
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States; School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States.
| | - Kris Hong
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Québec H3A 1G1, Canada.
| | - Marianne Hatzopoulou
- Department of Civil and Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4, Canada.
| | - Scott Weichenthal
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Québec H3A 1G1, Canada.
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8
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Ma X, Gao J, Longley I, Zou B, Guo B, Xu X, Salmond J. Development of transferable neighborhood land use regression models for predicting intra-urban ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) spatial variations. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:45903-45918. [PMID: 35150420 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-19141-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2021] [Accepted: 02/05/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Land use regression (LUR) models have been extensively used to predict air pollution exposure in epidemiological and environmental studies. The lack of dense routine monitoring networks in big cities places increased emphasis on the need for LUR models to be developed using purpose-designed neighborhood-scale monitoring data. However, the unsatisfactory model transferability limits these neighborhood LUR models to be then applied to other intra-urban areas in predicting air pollution exposure. In this study, we tackled this issue by proposing a method to develop transferable neighborhood NO2 LUR models with comparable predictive power based on only micro-scale predictor variables for modeling intra-urban ambient air pollution exposure. Taking Auckland metropolis, New Zealand, as a case study, the proposed method was applied to three neighborhoods (urban, central business district, and dominion road) and compared with the corresponding counterpart models developed using pools of (a) only macro-scale predictor variables and (b) a mixture of both micro- and macro-scale predictor variables (traditional method). The results showed that the models using only macro-scale variables achieved the lowest accuracy (R2: 0.388-0.484) and had the worst direct (R2: 0.0001-0.349) and indirect transferability (R2: 0.07-0.352). Those models using the traditional method had the highest model fitting R2 (0.629-0.966) with lower cross-validation R2 (0.495-0.941) and slightly better direct transferability (R2: 0.0003-0.386) but suffered poor model interpretability when indirectly transferred to new locations. Our proposed models had comparable model fitting R2 (0.601-0.966) and the best cross-validation R2 (0.514-0.941). They also had the strongest direct transferability (R2: 0.006-0.590) and moderate-to-good indirect transferability (R2: 0.072-0.850) with much better model interpretability. This study advances our knowledge of developing transferable LUR models for the very first time from the perspective of the scale of the predictor variables used in the model development and will significantly benefit the wider application of LUR approaches in epidemiological and environmental studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuying Ma
- College of Geomatics, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an, 710054, China
| | - Jay Gao
- School of Environment, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, 1142, New Zealand
| | - Ian Longley
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Auckland, 1010, New Zealand
| | - Bin Zou
- School of Geosciences and Info-Physics, Central South University, No. 932, South Lushan Road, Yuelu District, Changsha, 410083, Hunan, China.
| | - Bin Guo
- College of Geomatics, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an, 710054, China
| | - Xin Xu
- Xi'an Institute for Innovative Earth Environment Research, Xi'an, 710061, China
| | - Jennifer Salmond
- School of Environment, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, 1142, New Zealand
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Lloyd M, Carter E, Diaz FG, Magara-Gomez KT, Hong KY, Baumgartner J, Herrera G VM, Weichenthal S. Predicting Within-City Spatial Variations in Outdoor Ultrafine Particle and Black Carbon Concentrations in Bucaramanga, Colombia: A Hybrid Approach Using Open-Source Geographic Data and Digital Images. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2021; 55:12483-12492. [PMID: 34498865 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.1c01412] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Outdoor ultrafine particles (UFP, <0.1 μm) and black carbon (BC) vary greatly within cities and may have adverse impacts on human health. In this study, we used a hybrid approach to develop new models to estimate within-city spatial variations in outdoor UFP and BC concentrations across Bucaramanga, Colombia. We conducted a mobile monitoring campaign over 20 days in 2019. Regression models were trained on land use data and combined with predictions from convolutional neural networks (CNN) trained to predict UFP and BC concentrations using satellite and street-level images. The combined UFP model (R2 = 0.54) outperformed the CNN (R2 = 0.47) and land use regression (LUR) models (R2 = 0.47) on their own. Similarly, the combined BC model also outperformed the CNN and LUR BC models (R2 = 0.51 vs 0.43 and 0.45, respectively). Spatial variations in model performance were more stable for the CNN and combined models compared to the LUR models, suggesting that the combined approach may be less likely to contribute to differential exposure measurement error in epidemiological studies. In general, our findings demonstrated that satellite and street-level images can be combined with a traditional LUR modeling approach to improve predictions of within-city spatial variations in outdoor UFP and BC concentrations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marshall Lloyd
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal H3A 1A2, Canada
| | - Ellison Carter
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Walter Scott, Jr. College of Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins 80523, United States
| | - Florencio Guzman Diaz
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Walter Scott, Jr. College of Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins 80523, United States
| | | | - Kris Y Hong
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal H3A 1A2, Canada
| | - Jill Baumgartner
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal H3A 1A2, Canada
- Institute for Health and Social Policy, McGill University, Montreal H3A 1A2, Canada
| | - Víctor M Herrera G
- Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Autónoma de Bucaramanga, Bucaramanga 680006, Colombia
| | - Scott Weichenthal
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal H3A 1A2, Canada
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10
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Xu X, Qin N, Yang Z, Liu Y, Cao S, Zou B, Jin L, Zhang Y, Duan X. Potential for developing independent daytime/nighttime LUR models based on short-term mobile monitoring to improve model performance. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (BARKING, ESSEX : 1987) 2021; 268:115951. [PMID: 33162219 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2020.115951] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2020] [Revised: 10/10/2020] [Accepted: 10/27/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Land use regression model (LUR) is a widespread method for predicting air pollution exposure. Few studies have explored the performance of independently developed daytime/nighttime LUR models. In this study, fine particulate matter (PM2.5), inhalable particulate matter (PM10), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations were measured by mobile monitoring during non-heating and heating seasons in Taiyuan. Pollutant concentrations were higher in the nighttime than the daytime, and higher in the heating season than the non-heating season. Daytime/nighttime and full-day LUR models were developed and validated for each pollutant to examine variations in model performance. Adjusted coefficients of determination (adjusted R2) for the LUR models ranged from 0.53-0.87 (PM2.5), 0.53-0.85 (PM10), and 0.33-0.67 (NO2). The performance of the daytime/nighttime LUR models for PM2.5 and PM10 was better than that of the full-day models according to the results of model adjusted R2 and validation R2. Consistent results were confirmed in the non-heating and heating seasons. Effectiveness of developing independent daytime/nighttime models for NO2 to improve performance was limited. Surfaces based on the daytime/nighttime models revealed variations in concentrations and spatial distribution. In conclusion, the independent development of daytime/nighttime LUR models for PM2.5/PM10 has the potential to replace full-day models for better model performance. The modeling strategy is consistent with the residential activity patterns and contributes to achieving reliable exposure predictions for PM2.5 and PM10. Nighttime could be a critical exposure period, due to high pollutant concentrations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiangyu Xu
- School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of Science and Technology of Beijing, Beijing, 100083, China
| | - Ning Qin
- School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of Science and Technology of Beijing, Beijing, 100083, China
| | - Zhenchun Yang
- MRC Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, United Kingdom
| | - Yunwei Liu
- School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of Science and Technology of Beijing, Beijing, 100083, China
| | - Suzhen Cao
- School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of Science and Technology of Beijing, Beijing, 100083, China
| | - Bin Zou
- School of Geosciences and Info-Physics, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, 410083, China
| | - Lan Jin
- Department of Surgery, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, 06520, USA
| | - Yawei Zhang
- Department of Surgery, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, 06520, USA; Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, 06510, USA
| | - Xiaoli Duan
- School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of Science and Technology of Beijing, Beijing, 100083, China.
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11
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Lavigne E, Lima I, Hatzopoulou M, Van Ryswyk K, van Donkelaar A, Martin RV, Chen H, Stieb DM, Crighton E, Burnett RT, Weichenthal S. Ambient ultrafine particle concentrations and incidence of childhood cancers. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2020; 145:106135. [PMID: 32979813 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2020.106135] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2020] [Revised: 09/03/2020] [Accepted: 09/11/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Ambient air pollution has been associated with childhood cancer. However, little is known about the possible impact of ambient ultrafine particles (<0.1 μm) (UFPs) on childhood cancer incidence. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to evaluate the association between prenatal and childhood exposure to UFPs and development of childhood cancer. METHODS We conducted a population-based cohort study of within-city spatiotemporal variations in ambient UFPs across the City of Toronto, Canada using 653,702 singleton live births occurring between April 1, 1998 and March 31, 2017. Incident cases of 13 subtypes of paediatric cancers among children up to age 14 were ascertained using a cancer registry. Associations between ambient air pollutant concentrations and childhood cancer incidence were estimated using random-effects Cox proportional hazards models. We investigated both single- and multi-pollutant models accounting for co-exposures to PM2.5 and NO2. RESULTS A total of 1,066 childhood cancers were identified. We found that first trimester exposure to UFPs (Hazard Ratio (HR) per 10,000/cm3 increase = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.03-1.22) was associated with overall cancer incidence diagnosed before 6 years of age after adjusting for PM2.5, NO2, and for personal and neighborhood-level covariates. Association between UFPs and overall cancer incidence exhibited a linear shape. No statistically significant associations were found for specific cancer subtypes. CONCLUSION Ambient UFPs may represent a previously unrecognized risk factor in the aetiology of cancers in children. Our findings reinforce the importance of conducting further research on the effects of UFPs given their high prevalence of exposure in urban areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eric Lavigne
- Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
| | - Isac Lima
- Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Marianne Hatzopoulou
- Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Keith Van Ryswyk
- Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Aaron van Donkelaar
- Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada; Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA, USA; Department of Energy, Environmental and Chemical Engineering, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA
| | - Randall V Martin
- Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada; Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA, USA; Department of Energy, Environmental and Chemical Engineering, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA
| | - Hong Chen
- Population Studies Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; Public Health Ontario, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - David M Stieb
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; Population Studies Division, Health Canada, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Eric Crighton
- Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Richard T Burnett
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; Population Studies Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Scott Weichenthal
- Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
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12
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Yang Z, Freni-Sterrantino A, Fuller GW, Gulliver J. Development and transferability of ultrafine particle land use regression models in London. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 740:140059. [PMID: 32927570 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140059] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2020] [Revised: 05/06/2020] [Accepted: 06/05/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Due to a lack of routine monitoring, bespoke measurements are required to develop ultrafine particle (UFP) land use regression (LUR) models, which is especially challenging in megacities due to their large area. As an alternative, for London, we developed separate models for three urban residential areas, models combining two areas, and models using all three areas. Models were developed against annual mean ultrafine particle count cm-3 estimated from repeated 30-min fixed-site measurements, in different seasons (2016-2018), at forty sites per area, that were subsequently temporally adjusted using continuous measurements from a single reference site within or close to each area. A single model and 10 models were developed for each individual area and combination of areas. Within each area, sites were split into 10 groups using stratified random sampling. Each of the 10 models were developed using 90% of sites. Hold-out validation was performed by pooling the 10% of sites held-out each time. The transferability of models was tested by applying individual and two-area models to external area(s). In model evaluation, within-area mean squared error (MSE) R2 ranged from 14% to 48%. Transferring individual- and combined-area models to external areas without calibration yielded MSE-R2 ranging from -18 to 0. MSE-R2 was in the range 21% to 41% when using particle number count (PNC) measurements in external areas to calibrate models. Our results suggest that the UFP models could be transferred to other areas without calibration in London to assess relative ranking in exposures but not for estimating absolute values of PNC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhenchun Yang
- MRC Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, United Kingdom..
| | - Anna Freni-Sterrantino
- MRC Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, United Kingdom
| | - Gary W Fuller
- MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Population Health & Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Life Sciences & Medicine, King's College London, United Kingdom
| | - John Gulliver
- MRC Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London, United Kingdom.; Centre for Environmental Health and Sustainability & School of Geography, Geology and the Environment, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom
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13
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Zalzal J, Alameddine I, El-Fadel M, Weichenthal S, Hatzopoulou M. Drivers of seasonal and annual air pollution exposure in a complex urban environment with multiple source contributions. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2020; 192:415. [PMID: 32500382 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-020-08345-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2019] [Accepted: 05/04/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Outdoor air pollution is a global health concern, but detailed exposure information is still limited for many parts of the world. In this study, high-resolution exposure surfaces were generated for annual and seasonal fine particulate matter (PM2.5), coarse particulate matter (PM10), and carbon monoxide (CO) for the Greater Beirut Area (GBA), Lebanon, an urban zone with a complex topography and multiple source contributions. Land use regression models (LUR) were calibrated and validated with monthly data collected from 58 locations between March 2017 and March 2018. The annual mean (±1 SD) concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, and CO across the monitoring locations were 68.1 (±15.7) μg/m3, 83.5 (±19.5) μg/m3, and 2.48 (±1.12) ppm, respectively. The coefficients of determination for LUR models ranged from 56 to 67% for PM2.5, 44 to 63% for the PM10 models, and 50 to 60% for the CO. LUR model structures varied significantly by season for both PM2.5 and PM10 but not for CO. Traffic emissions were consistently the main source of CO emissions throughout the year. The relative importance of industrial emissions and power generation sources towards predicted PM levels increased during the hot season while the contribution of the international airport diminished. Moreover, the complex topography of the study area along with the seasonal changes in the predominant wind directions affected the spatial predicted concentrations of all three pollutants. Overall, the predicted exposure surfaces were able to conserve the inter-pollution correlations determined from the field monitoring campaign, with the exception of the cold season. Our pollution surfaces suggest that the entire population of Beirut is regularly exposed to concentrations exceeding the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality standards for both PM2.5 and PM10.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jad Zalzal
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Maroun Semaan Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Ibrahim Alameddine
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Maroun Semaan Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon.
| | - Mutasem El-Fadel
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Maroun Semaan Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Scott Weichenthal
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Marianne Hatzopoulou
- Department of Civil & Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
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