Land-use and climate controls on aquatic carbon cycling and phototrophs in karst lakes of southwest China

Enhancing machine learning models for total organic carbon prediction by integrating geospatial parameters in river watersheds

This study utilizes machine learning (ML) algorithms to develop a robust total organic carbon (TOC) prediction model for river waters in the Geumho River sub-basins, South Korea, considering both non-rain and rain events. The model incorporates geospatial parameters such as land use, slope, flow rate, and basic water quality metrics including biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended solids (SS). A key aspect of this research is examining how land use information enhances the model's predictive accuracy. We compared two ML algorithms-extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and deep neural networks (DNN)-with a traditional multiple linear regression (MLR) approach. XGBoost outperformed the others, achieving an R2 value between 0.61 and 0.68 in the test dataset and demonstrating significant improvement during rain events with an R2 of 0.77 when including land use data. In contrast, this enhancement was not observed with the MLR model. Feature importance analysis using Shapley values highlighted COD as the primary predictor for non-rain events, while during rain events, COD, TP, TN, SS and agricultural land collectively influenced TOC levels. This study significantly advances understanding of TOC variability across different land use scenarios in river systems and underscores the importance of integrating geospatial and water quality parameters to enhance TOC prediction, particularly during rain events. This methodology provides a valuable framework for developing river management strategies and monitoring long-term TOC trends, especially in scenarios with gaps in essential monitoring data.

A method for researching the eutrophication and N/P loads of plateau lakes: Lugu Lake as a case

Lugu Lake is one of the best plateau lakes in China in terms of water quality, but in recent years the eutrophication of Lugu Lake has accelerated due to high nitrogen and phosphorus loads. This study aimed to determine the eutrophication state of Lugu Lake. Specifically, the spatio-temporal variations of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution during the wet and dry seasons were investigated in Lianghai and Caohai, and the primary environmental effect factors were defined. Adopting the endogenous static release experiments and the exogenous improved export coefficient model, a novel approach (a combination of internal and external sources) was developed for the estimation of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution loads in Lugu Lake. It was indicated that the order of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution in Lugu Lake was Caohai > Lianghai and dry season > wet season. Dissolved oxygen (DO) and chemical oxygen demand (COD_Mn) were the main environmental factors causing nitrogen and phosphorus pollution. Endogenous nitrogen and phosphorus release rates in Lugu Lake were 668.7 and 42.0 t/a, respectively, and exogenous nitrogen and phosphorus input rates were 372.7 and 30.8 t/a, respectively. The contributions of pollution sources, in descending order, were sediment > land-use categories > residents and livestock breeding > plant decay, of which sediment nitrogen and phosphorus loads accounted for 64.3 % and 57.4 %, respectively. Regulating the endogenous release of sediment and obstructing the exogenous input from shrubland and woodland are emphasized for the management of nitrogen and phosphorus contamination in Lugu Lake. Thus, this study can serve as a theoretical foundation and technical guide for eutrophication control in plateau lakes.

Response of OC, TN, and TP deposition mediated by aquatic photosynthetic community structures in shallow karst surface waters under different land uses

Land use change alters the hydrochemical features, nutrient outputs, and community structure of aquatic photosynthetic organisms in watersheds and has an important impact on C, N, and P biogeochemical processes. In shallow water environments, sediments are the most important burial sites for C, N, and P; however, the factors underlying the control of their deposition by land use changes remain unclear. In this study, the relationship among hydrochemical features, aquatic photosynthetic organism community structure, and C, N, and P deposition in surface waters associated with different land uses was studied at the Shawan Karst Water-Carbon Cycle Test Site, Puding, SW China, by combining field monitoring and laboratory experiments performed over a complete hydrological year from September 2018 to August 2019. The results indicate that (1) OC and TN deposition showed small differences among ponds associated with five land uses, while TP was significantly higher in ponds associated with shrubland and grassland than in ponds of cultivated land, bare soil, and bare rock. (2) Cultivated land increased OC and TN deposition by increasing N and P output and planktonic algae biomass in surface waters, while grassland and shrubland ponds mainly by increasing DIC output and macrophyte biomass. (3) Compared with cultivated land, grassland and shrubland significantly enhanced TP deposition by promoting the deposition of calcium-bound P and biogenic P from macrophytes and their epiphytic algae in surface waters. In conclusion, the shift of cultivated land and bare soil to grassland and shrubland may be conducive to the formation of benign aquatic ecosystems and stabilization of C, N, and P sinks in karst shallow surface waters.

Spatiotemporal variation and driving factors of water quality in Yunnan-Guizhou plateau lakes, China

The Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau (YGP) lakes are the typical plateau rift lakes and an important water source in southwest China. However, there is a scarcity of research on its spatiotemporal water quality variations and driving factors, especially on long-term scales. Herein, multiple water quality indicators for 11 natural lakes on the YGP were measured from 2005 to 2020. In this study, the effects of natural lake attributes, human activities, and meteorological conditions on water quality were also analyzed. The results showed that the water quality of the YGP lakes tended to degrade, and was divided into heavy, medium, and light pollution types. Total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), permanganate index (COD_Mn), and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD₅) increased by 14.69%, 14.44%, 22.61%, and 11.26%, respectively, from 2005 to 2020. Natural attributes of lakes and land use types were the main reasons for the spatial heterogeneity of water quality in YGP. In contrast, the temporal evolution of lake water quality was mainly related to human activities and climatic conditions. The smaller the water/ terrestrial area ratio, water storage capacity, and water depth, the easier the eutrophication and the worser the water quality of YGP lakes. Land degradation accelerated the deterioration of water quality in plateau lakes, while ecological land played an improving role. This study summarizes the water quality changes and influencing factors in YGP lakes over the past 15 years, which can provide a scientific database reference for water environment protection in YGP.

Response mechanism of sediment organic matter of plateau lakes in cold and arid regions to climate change: a case study of Hulun Lake, China

Lake organic matter is one of the important forms of terrestrial carbon, and its sedimentary evolution is affected by many factors such as climate and sources. However, few studies have been conducted on the feedback mechanism of the sedimentary evolution of organic matter to climate change in cold and arid lakes. Historical variations and compositions of sources of the sediment organic matter (SOM) of Hulun Lake, a typical lake in the cold and arid region of China, were studied by multiple methods. The interactions and fee7dback mechanisms between the sedimentary evolution of SOM and climate change, and compositions of SOM source change, were also discussed. Overall, the characteristic indexes of the SOM, including total organic carbon (TOC), carbon stable isotope (δ¹³C), carbon to nitrogen ratio (C/N), and fluorescence intensity (FI) of the protein-like component in water extractable organic matter (WEOM), showed obvious and uniform characteristics of periodical changes. The indexes were relatively stable before 1920, and fluctuated from 1920 to 1979. Since the 1980s, values of TOC, δ¹³C, and FI of the protein-like component in WEOM has increased, while C/N decreased. The absolute dominant contribution of terrestrial source to the SOM had changed, and the relative average contribution rate of autochthonous source increased from 17.6% before 1920 to 36.9% after 2000. The increase of temperature, strong evaporation concentration effect, and change of compositions of SOM sources are the important driving factors of the sedimentary evolution of organic matter in Hulun Lake.

Sedimentary records of human activities in China over the past two millennia and implications for the Anthropocene: A review

Human activities have profoundly transformed the natural environment and the Earth system, leading to the concept of the Anthropocene. This paper summarizes the effects of human activities on the environment in China as recorded in sedimentary archives. China is divided into core and marginal areas based on their natural and societal conditions, and changes in selected proxies for four stages since 2.0 ka are assessed. From 2.0 to 1.0 ka, tree pollen ratios, magnetic susceptibility values, stable organic carbon isotope ratios, and lead concentrations began to deviate from natural baseline (4.0-2.0 ka) values in the core area at different times depending on location. From 1.0 ka to 1950 CE, anthropogenic perturbations recorded by these proxies increased and exhibited regional changes in the core area. From 1950 to1980 CE, total organic carbon contents, stable organic carbon isotope ratios, total nitrogen contents, and stable nitrogen isotope ratios changed significantly in both the core and marginal areas. After 1980 CE, lead concentrations, black carbon and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons contents increased rapidly. In the latter two stages, the amounts and chronologies of artificial radionuclides and novel materials in the strata reflect their history of outputs or emissions. The boundaries for each stage correspond with important historical events. At 1.0 ka, the political center of China moved eastward, and a transportation network was established in the core area. In ca. 1950 CE, the People's Republic of China was established and the Global Acceleration began, while 1980 CE corresponds with the Reform and Opening-up of China that led to an accelerated industrialization. Our review shows that transportation networks and industries were key factors for intensification of human activities that caused Earth system to enter the Anthropocene.

Diatom assemblage responses to multiple environmental stressors in a deep brackish plateau lake, SW China

Eutrophication, climate change, water level fall, fish introduction, and salinity have been widely recorded to impact lake ecosystems around the world. However, the combined responding pattern in the lake ecosystem to the above multiple environmental stressors is not well understood. Here, we present diatom assemblage and geochemical indicators (total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorous (TP)) in lake sediment to investigate the long-term trends in the aquatic ecosystem in response to multiple environmental stressors in Lake Chenghai, a deep brackish lake located on Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, SW China, during the past 80 years. We identified 8 genera and 15 species of diatom reaching a relative abundance of ≥ 2% in at least one sample, with the dominant taxa such as Cyclotella rhomboideo-elliptica and Aulacoseira alpigena through the sediment core. There was a clear shift in the diatom community from oligotrophic species of C. rhomboideo-elliptica to eutrophic species such as Cyclotella meneghiniana and Cyclostephanos dubius becoming dominant since ca. 1998 CE. In addition, the changes in the fish introduction, water level, temperature, and salinity also resulted in the variation in abundance of planktonic and benthic diatoms. The increase in the abundance of diatoms of C. rhomboideo-elliptica since ca. 1986 CE may be related to the decline in water level and increasing fish production. For one thing, the decline in water level reduces the concentrations of benthic diatoms but increases the relative biomass of planktonic diatoms. For another, the increasing fish production results in the decrease in the zooplankton biomass, thus reducing the predation pressure on planktonic algae. Besides, some specific species such as C. meneghiniana may respond to the increased nutrient release and increased salinity since ca. 1998 CE. Combined, our findings demonstrate that trophic level is the main driver of diatom assemblage changes, and other environmental variables including water level, fish introduction, and climate warming also contribute to diatom community variation in this brackish plateau lake during the last 80 years.

Geochemical records of Lake Erhai (South-Western China) reveal the anthropogenically-induced intensification of hypolimnetic anoxia in monomictic lakes

In monomictic lakes, hypolimnetic anoxia is becoming severe in extent and duration over the past few decades. Understanding historical trends in hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen (DO) levels and the factors controlling them is crucial for effective protection and management of monomictic lakes everywhere, but the issue remains little studied in China. Here, our study elucidated the variation of hypolimnion DO and organic matter (OM) input in Lake Erhai (a typical monomictic lake in South-Western China) during the past 200 years, by using the geochemical profiles of elements (C, N, P, S, Mo, Ca, and Al) and aliphatic hydrocarbons in a dated sediment core. The values of element proxies (S concentrations, S/Al ratios, Mo enrichment factor, and total organic carbon/total P ratios) and pristane/phytane (Pr/Ph) ratios reflect relatively limited development of anoxia in the lake hypolimnion before 1990. Meanwhile, the n-alkane proxies (short-chain, middle-chain, and long-chain n-alkane abundances, n-C₁₇/n-C₁₆ alkane ratios, and Paq) indicate relatively scant inputs of OM from phytoplankton and relatively high inputs of OM from terrestrial plants or from submerged macrophytes. Taken together the results show that OM supplied in this period did not deteriorate hypolimnion DO in Lake Erhai. The element proxies and Pr/Ph ratios point to that the lake had experienced a pronounced intensification of hypolimnetic anoxia after 1990, and the n-alkane proxies indicate that the lake was susceptible to severe eutrophication and phytoplankton blooms in this period. The synchronous sharp variation implies the decay of massive phytoplankton OM had severely consumed oxygen in the lake hypolimnion. The large surface area/depth ratio in Lake Erhai is conducive for an overturn of the water column during wind disturbance, which allowed the water column stratification and relating effects (e.g., hypolimnetic anoxia) less vulnerable to some aspects of climate change.

Short-term effects of land consolidation of dryland-to-paddy conversion on soil CO2 flux

To improve grain production capacity, many areas in the world are shifting from rainfed agriculture to irrigated agriculture. One example of such land consolidation is dryland-to-paddy conversion. The conversion of land use pattern largely affects the stability of farmland soil, especially the soil carbon cycle. However, the mutual feedback mechanisms between carbon flux variation and environmental factors during the farmland consolidation process are still poorly known. Located in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain China, Xuzhou is a typical area where dryland-to-paddy conversion are most widely distributed. Therefore, in this study, we have carried out dryland-to-paddy conversion by setting up two isolated rectangular fields one group planting corn in dryland (DL) and another group planting in paddy field (PF) in Xuzhou. Here, we determined the effect of dryland-to-paddy consolidation on soil CO₂ flux in two isolated rectangular fields - the dryland (DL) cultivated with corn and the paddy field (PF) cultivated with rice. Our results showed that the soil carbon flux and temperature followed similar unimodal curves with greater soil CO₂ flux of in PF than in DL. Surprisingly, the land conversion significantly reduced soil microbial biomass carbon and easily oxidized organic carbon by 28.55% and 29.09%, respectively. The structural equation modeling results demonstrated that the changes in soil environmental factors, including temperature, and fungal OTU numbers, were the primary drivers for the soil CO₂ flux and soil carbon pool (P < 0.05). Overall, this study improves the understanding of the ecological impact of dryland-to-paddy conversion, providing insights into low-carbon agriculture and climate mitigation.

Land Use Dynamics and Optimization from 2000 to 2020 in East Guangdong Province, China

Anthropogenic land-use change is one of the main drivers of global environmental change. China has been on a fast track of land-use change since the Reform and Opening-up policy in 1978. In view of the situation, this study aims to optimize land use and provide a way to effectively coordinate the development and ecological protection in China. We took East Guangdong (EGD), an underdeveloped but populous region, as a case study. We used land-use changes indexes to demonstrate the land-use dynamics in EGD from 2000 to 2020, then identified the hot spots for fast-growing areas of built-up land and simulated land use in 2030 using the future land-use simulation (FLUS) model. The results indicated that the cropland and the built-up land changed in a large proportion during the study period. Then we established the ecological security pattern (ESP) according to the minimal cumulative resistance model (MCRM) based on the natural and socioeconomic factors. Corridors, buffer zones, and the key nodes were extracted by the MCRM to maintain landscape connectivity and key ecological processes of the study area. Moreover, the study showed the way to identify the conflict zones between future built-up land expansion with the corridors and buffer zones, which will be critical areas of consideration for future land-use management. Finally, some relevant policy recommendations are proposed based on the research result.