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Stegner MA, Spanbauer TL. North American pollen records provide evidence for macroscale ecological changes in the Anthropocene. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2306815120. [PMID: 37844232 PMCID: PMC10614604 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2306815120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2023] [Accepted: 09/02/2023] [Indexed: 10/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Recent global changes associated with anthropogenic activities are impacting ecological systems globally, giving rise to the Anthropocene. Critical reorganization of biological communities and biodiversity loss are expected to accelerate as anthropogenic global change continues. Long-term records offer context for understanding baseline conditions and those trajectories that are beyond the range of normal fluctuation seen over recent millennia: Are we causing changes that are fundamentally different from changes in the past? Using a rich dataset of late Quaternary pollen records, stored in the open-access and community-curated Neotoma database, we analyzed changes in biodiversity and community composition since the end Pleistocene in North America. We measured taxonomic richness, short-term taxonomic loss and gain, first/last appearances (FAD/LAD), and abrupt community change. For all analyses, we incorporated age-model uncertainty and accounted for differences in sample size to generate conservative estimates. The most prominent signals of elevated vegetation change were seen during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and since 200 calendar years before present (cal YBP). During the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, abrupt changes and FADs were elevated, and from 200 to -50 cal YBP, we found increases in short-term taxonomic loss, FADs, LADs, and abrupt changes. Taxonomic richness declined from ~13,000 cal YBP until about 6,000 cal YBP and then increased until the present, reaching levels seen during the end Pleistocene. Regionally, patterns were highly variable. These results show that recent changes associated with anthropogenic impacts are comparable to the landscape changes that took place as we moved from a glacial to interglacial world.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Trisha L. Spanbauer
- Department of Environmental Sciences and Lake Erie Center, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH43606
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2
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Williams JW, Spanbauer TL, Heintzman PD, Blois J, Capo E, Goring SJ, Monchamp ME, Parducci L, Von Eggers JM. Strengthening global-change science by integrating aeDNA with paleoecoinformatics. Trends Ecol Evol 2023; 38:946-960. [PMID: 37230884 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2023.04.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2022] [Revised: 04/26/2023] [Accepted: 04/28/2023] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Ancient environmental DNA (aeDNA) data are close to enabling insights into past global-scale biodiversity dynamics at unprecedented taxonomic extent and resolution. However, achieving this potential requires solutions that bridge bioinformatics and paleoecoinformatics. Essential needs include support for dynamic taxonomic inferences, dynamic age inferences, and precise stratigraphic depth. Moreover, aeDNA data are complex and heterogeneous, generated by dispersed researcher networks, with methods advancing rapidly. Hence, expert community governance and curation are essential to building high-value data resources. Immediate recommendations include uploading metabarcoding-based taxonomic inventories into paleoecoinformatic resources, building linkages among open bioinformatic and paleoecoinformatic data resources, harmonizing aeDNA processing workflows, and expanding community data governance. These advances will enable transformative insights into global-scale biodiversity dynamics during large environmental and anthropogenic changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- John W Williams
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53704, USA.
| | - Trisha L Spanbauer
- Department of Environmental Science and Lake Erie Center, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606, USA
| | - Peter D Heintzman
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway; Centre for Palaeogenetics, Svante Arrhenius väg 20C, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Geological Sciences, Stockholm University, SE-10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jessica Blois
- Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of California -Merced, Merced, CA 95343, USA
| | - Eric Capo
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, Linnaeus väg 4-6, 907 36 Umeå, Sweden
| | - Simon J Goring
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53704, USA
| | | | - Laura Parducci
- Department of Environmental Biology, Sapienza University of Rome, Piazzale Aldo Moro 5, 00185, Rome, Italy; Department of Ecology and Genetics, Evolutionary Biology Centre, Uppsala University, Norbyvägen 18D, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Jordan M Von Eggers
- Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
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3
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Dillon EM, Dunne EM, Womack TM, Kouvari M, Larina E, Claytor JR, Ivkić A, Juhn M, Carmona PSM, Robson SV, Saha A, Villafaña JA, Zill ME. Challenges and directions in analytical paleobiology. PALEOBIOLOGY 2023; 49:377-393. [PMID: 37809321 PMCID: PMC7615171 DOI: 10.1017/pab.2023.3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/10/2023]
Abstract
Over the last 50 years, access to new data and analytical tools has expanded the study of analytical paleobiology, contributing to innovative analyses of biodiversity dynamics over Earth's history. Despite-or even spurred by-this growing availability of resources, analytical paleobiology faces deep-rooted obstacles that stem from the need for more equitable access to data and best practices to guide analyses of the fossil record. Recent progress has been accelerated by a collective push toward more collaborative, interdisciplinary, and open science, especially by early-career researchers. Here, we survey four challenges facing analytical paleobiology from an early-career perspective: (1) accounting for biases when interpreting the fossil record; (2) integrating fossil and modern biodiversity data; (3) building data science skills; and (4) increasing data accessibility and equity. We discuss recent efforts to address each challenge, highlight persisting barriers, and identify tools that have advanced analytical work. Given the inherent linkages between these challenges, we encourage discourse across disciplines to find common solutions. We also affirm the need for systemic changes that reevaluate how we conduct and share paleobiological research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erin M. Dillon
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106, U.S.A.; Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa, Republic of Panama
| | - Emma M. Dunne
- GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU), 91054 Erlangen, Germany; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, United Kingdom
| | - Tom M. Womack
- School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, P.O. Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Miranta Kouvari
- Department of Earth Sciences, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom; Life Sciences Department, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, United Kingdom
| | - Ekaterina Larina
- Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas, Austin, Texas 78712, U.S.A
| | - Jordan Ray Claytor
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195, U.S.A; Burke Museum of Natural History and Culture, Seattle, Washington 98195, U.S.A
| | - Angelina Ivkić
- Department of Palaeontology, University of Vienna, Josef-Holaubek-Platz 2,1090 Vienna, Austria
| | - Mark Juhn
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095, U.S.A
| | - Pablo S. Milla Carmona
- Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Departamento de Ciencias Geológicas, Buenos Aires C1428EGA, Argentina; Instituto de Estudios Andinos “Don Pablo Groeber” (IDEAN, UBA-CONICET), Buenos Aires C1428EGA, Argentina
| | - Selina Viktor Robson
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada
| | - Anwesha Saha
- Institute of Palaeobiology, Polish Academy of Sciences, ul. Twarda 51/55, 00-818 Warsaw, Poland; Laboratory of Paleogenetics and Conservation Genetics, Centre of New Technologies (CeNT), University of Warsaw, S. Banacha 2c, 02-097 Warsaw, Poland
| | - Jaime A. Villafaña
- Department of Palaeontology, University of Vienna, Josef-Holaubek-Platz 2, 1090 Vienna, Austria; Centro de Investigación en Recursos Naturales y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Bernardo O ‘Higgins, Santiago 8370993, Chile
| | - Michelle E. Zill
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California Riverside, Riverside, California 92521, U.S.A
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4
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Tipton JR, Hooten MB, Nolan C, Booth RK, McLachlan J. Predicting paleoclimate from compositional data using multivariate Gaussian process inverse prediction. Ann Appl Stat 2019. [DOI: 10.1214/19-aoas1281] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
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5
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Nolan C, Overpeck JT, Allen JRM, Anderson PM, Betancourt JL, Binney HA, Brewer S, Bush MB, Chase BM, Cheddadi R, Djamali M, Dodson J, Edwards ME, Gosling WD, Haberle S, Hotchkiss SC, Huntley B, Ivory SJ, Kershaw AP, Kim SH, Latorre C, Leydet M, Lézine AM, Liu KB, Liu Y, Lozhkin AV, McGlone MS, Marchant RA, Momohara A, Moreno PI, Müller S, Otto-Bliesner BL, Shen C, Stevenson J, Takahara H, Tarasov PE, Tipton J, Vincens A, Weng C, Xu Q, Zheng Z, Jackson ST. Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. Science 2018; 361:920-923. [PMID: 30166491 DOI: 10.1126/science.aan5360] [Citation(s) in RCA: 126] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2017] [Revised: 04/24/2018] [Accepted: 07/30/2018] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Connor Nolan
- Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Jonathan T Overpeck
- School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.,Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Judy R M Allen
- Department of Biosciences, University of Durham, Durham DH1 3LE, UK
| | - Patricia M Anderson
- Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Julio L Betancourt
- National Research Program, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, USA
| | - Heather A Binney
- Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Simon Brewer
- Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA
| | - Mark B Bush
- Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL 32901, USA
| | - Brian M Chase
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UMR 5554, Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier, Université Montpellier, Bat. 22, CC061, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier, France
| | - Rachid Cheddadi
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UMR 5554, Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier, Université Montpellier, Bat. 22, CC061, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier, France
| | - Morteza Djamali
- Aix Marseille Université, Avignon Université, CNRS, IRD, Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie, 13545 Aix-en Provence, France
| | - John Dodson
- Palaeontology, Geobiology and Earth Archives Research Centre (PANGEA), University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.,State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 71002, Shaanxi, China
| | - Mary E Edwards
- Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK.,College of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Alaska-Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
| | - William D Gosling
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, 1090 GE Amsterdam, Netherlands.,School of Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, UK
| | - Simon Haberle
- Department of Archaeology and Natural History, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
| | - Sara C Hotchkiss
- Department of Botany, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Brian Huntley
- Department of Biosciences, University of Durham, Durham DH1 3LE, UK
| | - Sarah J Ivory
- Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16802, USA
| | - A Peter Kershaw
- School of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia
| | - Soo-Hyun Kim
- Department of Botany, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Claudio Latorre
- Departamento de Ecología, Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity (IEB), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Michelle Leydet
- Aix Marseille Université, Avignon Université, CNRS, IRD, Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie, 13545 Aix-en Provence, France
| | - Anne-Marie Lézine
- Sorbonne Université, CNRS-IRD-MNHN, LOCEAN/IPSL Laboratory, 4 Place Jussieu, 75005 Paris, France
| | - Kam-Biu Liu
- Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA
| | - Yao Liu
- School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
| | - A V Lozhkin
- North-East Interdisciplinary Scientific Research Institute, Far East Branch Russian Academy of Sciences, Magadan 685000, Russia
| | | | - Robert A Marchant
- Department of Environment, York Institute for Tropical Ecosystems, University of York, York YO10 5NG, UK
| | - Arata Momohara
- Graduate School of Horticulture, Chiba University, Matsudo-shi, Chiba 271-8510, Japan
| | - Patricio I Moreno
- Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, IEB and (CR)2, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Stefanie Müller
- Institute of Geological Sciences, Freie Universität Berlin, D-12249 Berlin, Germany
| | - Bette L Otto-Bliesner
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
| | - Caiming Shen
- Yunnan Normal University, Key Laboratory of Plateau Lake Ecology and Global Change, Kunming, Yunnan 650092, China
| | - Janelle Stevenson
- School of Culture, History, and Language, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
| | - Hikaru Takahara
- Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Kyoto Prefectural University, Kyoto, 606-8522, Japan
| | - Pavel E Tarasov
- Institute of Geological Sciences, Freie Universität Berlin, D-12249 Berlin, Germany
| | - John Tipton
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR 72701, USA
| | - Annie Vincens
- Centre Européen de Recherche et d'Enseignement des Géosciences de l'Environnement (CEREGE), 13545 Aix-en-Provence, France
| | - Chengyu Weng
- School of Ocean and Earth Science, Tongji University, Shanghai, China
| | - Qinghai Xu
- Institute of Nihewan Archaeology and College of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China
| | - Zhuo Zheng
- School of Earth Science and Engineering, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Geodynamics and Geohazards, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
| | - Stephen T Jackson
- Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA. .,Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
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6
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Farley SS, Dawson A, Goring SJ, Williams JW. Situating Ecology as a Big-Data Science: Current Advances, Challenges, and Solutions. Bioscience 2018. [DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biy068] [Citation(s) in RCA: 104] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/02/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Scott S Farley
- MSc in Geography at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and specializes in geovisualization, scientific data services, and cloud computing
| | - Andria Dawson
- Mathematical and statistical ecologist at Mount Royal University interested in developing and applying statistical methods to ecological data to infer ecosystem change
| | - Simon J Goring
- (http://goring.org) Data scientist and paleoecologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison serving as the IT lead for the Neotoma Paleoecology Database and on the EarthCube (http://earthcube.org) Leadership Council
| | - John W Williams
- Paleoecologist, biogeographer, and earth-system scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison studying the responses of species and communities to past and present environmental change
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7
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Clark JS, Nemergut D, Seyednasrollah B, Turner PJ, Zhang S. Generalized joint attribute modeling for biodiversity analysis: median‐zero, multivariate, multifarious data. ECOL MONOGR 2017. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1241] [Citation(s) in RCA: 127] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/22/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- James S. Clark
- Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University Durham North Carolina 27708 USA
- Department of Statistical Science Duke University Durham North Carolina 27708 USA
| | - Diana Nemergut
- Department of Biology Duke University Durham North Carolina 27708 USA
| | - Bijan Seyednasrollah
- Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University Durham North Carolina 27708 USA
| | - Phillip J. Turner
- Division of Marine Science and Conservation Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University Beaufort North Carolina 28516 USA
| | - Stacy Zhang
- Division of Marine Science and Conservation Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University Beaufort North Carolina 28516 USA
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8
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d'Alpoim Guedes JA, Crabtree SA, Bocinsky RK, Kohler TA. Twenty-first century approaches to ancient problems: Climate and society. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2016; 113:14483-14491. [PMID: 27956613 PMCID: PMC5187725 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1616188113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 78] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
By documenting how humans adapted to changes in their environment that are often much greater than those experienced in the instrumental record, archaeology provides our only deep-time laboratory for highlighting the circumstances under which humans managed or failed to find to adaptive solutions to changing climate, not just over a few generations but over the longue durée Patterning between climate-mediated environmental change and change in human societies has, however, been murky because of low spatial and temporal resolution in available datasets, and because of failure to model the effects of climate change on local resources important to human societies. In this paper we review recent advances in computational modeling that, in conjunction with improving data, address these limitations. These advances include network analysis, niche and species distribution modeling, and agent-based modeling. These studies demonstrate the utility of deep-time modeling for calibrating our understanding of how climate is influencing societies today and may in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Stefani A Crabtree
- Department of Anthropology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99163
- Université de Franche-Comté, Maison des Sciences de l'Homme et de l'Environnement C. N. Ledoux (MSHE), 25030 Besançon Cedex, France
| | - R Kyle Bocinsky
- Department of Anthropology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99163
- Crow Canyon Archaeological Center, Cortez, CO 81321
| | - Timothy A Kohler
- Department of Anthropology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99163
- Crow Canyon Archaeological Center, Cortez, CO 81321
- Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501
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9
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Fenton IS, Pearson PN, Dunkley Jones T, Farnsworth A, Lunt DJ, Markwick P, Purvis A. The impact of Cenozoic cooling on assemblage diversity in planktonic foraminifera. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2016; 371:20150224. [PMID: 26977064 PMCID: PMC4810817 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2015.0224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
The Cenozoic planktonic foraminifera (PF) (calcareous zooplankton) have arguably the most detailed fossil record of any group. The quality of this record allows models of environmental controls on macroecology, developed for Recent assemblages, to be tested on intervals with profoundly different climatic conditions. These analyses shed light on the role of long-term global cooling in establishing the modern latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG)--one of the most powerful generalizations in biogeography and macroecology. Here, we test the transferability of environment-diversity models developed for modern PF assemblages to the Eocene epoch (approx. 56-34 Ma), a time of pronounced global warmth. Environmental variables from global climate models are combined with Recent environment-diversity models to predict Eocene richness gradients, which are then compared with observed patterns. The results indicate the modern LDG--lower richness towards the poles--developed through the Eocene. Three possible causes are suggested for the mismatch between statistical model predictions and data in the Early Eocene: the environmental estimates are inaccurate, the statistical model misses a relevant variable, or the intercorrelations among facets of diversity--e.g. richness, evenness, functional diversity--have changed over geological time. By the Late Eocene, environment-diversity relationships were much more similar to those found today.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isabel S Fenton
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Paul N Pearson
- School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF10 3AT, UK
| | - Tom Dunkley Jones
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
| | - Alexander Farnsworth
- School of Geographical Sciences and Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK
| | - Daniel J Lunt
- School of Geographical Sciences and Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK
| | - Paul Markwick
- Getech Group plc. Elmete Hall, Elmete Lane, Leeds LS8 2LJ, UK
| | - Andy Purvis
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK
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10
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Perry GLW, Wainwright J, Etherington TR, Wilmshurst JM. Experimental Simulation: Using Generative Modeling and Palaeoecological Data to Understand Human-Environment Interactions. Front Ecol Evol 2016. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2016.00109] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
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11
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A comprehensive database of quality-rated fossil ages for Sahul's Quaternary vertebrates. Sci Data 2016; 3:160053. [PMID: 27434208 PMCID: PMC4984482 DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2016.53] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2015] [Accepted: 06/07/2016] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Abstract
The study of palaeo-chronologies using fossil data provides evidence for past ecological and evolutionary processes, and is therefore useful for predicting patterns and impacts of future environmental change. However, the robustness of inferences made from fossil ages relies heavily on both the quantity and quality of available data. We compiled Quaternary non-human vertebrate fossil ages from Sahul published up to 2013. This, the FosSahul database, includes 9,302 fossil records from 363 deposits, for a total of 478 species within 215 genera, of which 27 are from extinct and extant megafaunal species (2,559 records). We also provide a rating of reliability of individual absolute age based on the dating protocols and association between the dated materials and the fossil remains. Our proposed rating system identified 2,422 records with high-quality ages (i.e., a reduction of 74%). There are many applications of the database, including disentangling the confounding influences of hypothetical extinction drivers, better spatial distribution estimates of species relative to palaeo-climates, and potentially identifying new areas for fossil discovery.
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12
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Maguire KC, Nieto-Lugilde D, Fitzpatrick MC, Williams JW, Blois JL. Modeling Species and Community Responses to Past, Present, and Future Episodes of Climatic and Ecological Change. ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECOLOGY EVOLUTION AND SYSTEMATICS 2015. [DOI: 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-112414-054441] [Citation(s) in RCA: 92] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Kaitlin C. Maguire
- School of Natural Sciences, University of California, Merced, California 95343; ,
| | - Diego Nieto-Lugilde
- Appalachian Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Frostburg, Maryland 21532
| | - Matthew C. Fitzpatrick
- Appalachian Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Frostburg, Maryland 21532
| | - John W. Williams
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706
| | - Jessica L. Blois
- School of Natural Sciences, University of California, Merced, California 95343; ,
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13
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Gill JL, Blois JL, Benito B, Dobrowski S, Hunter ML, McGuire JL. A 2.5-million-year perspective on coarse-filter strategies for conserving nature's stage. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2015; 29:640-648. [PMID: 25924205 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12504] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2014] [Accepted: 11/25/2014] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Climate change will require novel conservation strategies. One such tactic is a coarse-filter approach that focuses on conserving nature's stage (CNS) rather than the actors (individual species). However, there is a temporal mismatch between the long-term goals of conservation and the short-term nature of most ecological studies, which leaves many assumptions untested. Paleoecology provides a valuable perspective on coarse-filter strategies by marshaling the natural experiments of the past to contextualize extinction risk due to the emerging impacts of climate change and anthropogenic threats. We reviewed examples from the paleoecological record that highlight the strengths, opportunities, and caveats of a CNS approach. We focused on the near-time geological past of the Quaternary, during which species were subjected to widespread changes in climate and concomitant changes in the physical environment in general. Species experienced a range of individualistic responses to these changes, including community turnover and novel associations, extinction and speciation, range shifts, changes in local richness and evenness, and both equilibrium and disequilibrium responses. Due to the dynamic nature of species responses to Quaternary climate change, a coarse-filter strategy may be appropriate for many taxa because it can accommodate dynamic processes. However, conservationists should also consider that the persistence of landforms varies across space and time, which could have potential long-term consequences for geodiversity and thus biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jacquelyn L Gill
- School of Biology & Ecology, University of Maine, Orono, ME, U.S.A..
- Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, ME, U.S.A..
| | - Jessica L Blois
- School of Natural Sciences, University of California-Merced, Merced, CA, U.S.A
| | - Blas Benito
- Department of Bioscience, Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Solomon Dobrowski
- Department of Forest Management, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, U.S.A
| | - Malcolm L Hunter
- Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Conservation Biology, University of Maine, Orono, ME, U.S.A
| | - Jenny L McGuire
- Department of Biology, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, U.S.A
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14
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Jackson ST, Blois JL. Community ecology in a changing environment: Perspectives from the Quaternary. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2015; 112:4915-21. [PMID: 25901314 PMCID: PMC4413336 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1403664111] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Community ecology and paleoecology are both concerned with the composition and structure of biotic assemblages but are largely disconnected. Community ecology focuses on existing species assemblages and recently has begun to integrate history (phylogeny and continental or intercontinental dispersal) to constrain community processes. This division has left a "missing middle": Ecological and environmental processes occurring on timescales from decades to millennia are not yet fully incorporated into community ecology. Quaternary paleoecology has a wealth of data documenting ecological dynamics at these timescales, and both fields can benefit from greater interaction and articulation. We discuss ecological insights revealed by Quaternary terrestrial records, suggest foundations for bridging between the disciplines, and identify topics where the disciplines can engage to mutual benefit.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephen T Jackson
- Southwest Climate Science Center, US Geological Survey, Tucson, AZ 85719; Department of Geosciences and School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721; and
| | - Jessica L Blois
- Life and Environmental Sciences, School of Natural Sciences, University of California, Merced CA 95343
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15
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16
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Gavin DG, Fitzpatrick MC, Gugger PF, Heath KD, Rodríguez-Sánchez F, Dobrowski SZ, Hampe A, Hu FS, Ashcroft MB, Bartlein PJ, Blois JL, Carstens BC, Davis EB, de Lafontaine G, Edwards ME, Fernandez M, Henne PD, Herring EM, Holden ZA, Kong WS, Liu J, Magri D, Matzke NJ, McGlone MS, Saltré F, Stigall AL, Tsai YHE, Williams JW. Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2014; 204:37-54. [PMID: 25039238 DOI: 10.1111/nph.12929] [Citation(s) in RCA: 165] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2014] [Accepted: 06/06/2014] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial-interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia - fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys - in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel G Gavin
- Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, 97403, USA
| | - Matthew C Fitzpatrick
- Appalachian Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Frostburg, MD, 21532, USA
| | - Paul F Gugger
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, USA
| | - Katy D Heath
- Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | | | - Solomon Z Dobrowski
- Department of Forest Management, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59812, USA
| | - Arndt Hampe
- INRA, BIOGECO, UMR 1202, 33610, Cestas, France
- BIOGECO, UMR 1202, University of Bordeaux, 33400, Talence, France
| | - Feng Sheng Hu
- Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | | | | | - Jessica L Blois
- School of Natural Sciences, University of California, Merced, CA, 95343, USA
| | - Bryan C Carstens
- Department of Evolution, Ecology & Organismal Biology, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA
| | - Edward B Davis
- Department of Geological Sciences, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, 97403, USA
| | - Guillaume de Lafontaine
- Canada Research Chair in Forest and Environmental Genomics, Centre for Forest Research, Institute for Systems and Integrative Biology, Université Laval, Québec City, QC, G1V 0A6, Canada
| | - Mary E Edwards
- Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Matias Fernandez
- Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | - Paul D Henne
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Institute of Plant Sciences, University of Bern, 3013, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Erin M Herring
- Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, 97403, USA
| | | | - Woo-Seok Kong
- Department of Geography, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, 130-701, Korea
| | - Jianquan Liu
- College of Life Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Donatella Magri
- Dipartimento di Biologia Ambientale, Sapienza University, Piazzale Aldo Moro 5, 00185, Rome, Italy
| | - Nicholas J Matzke
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, 37996, USA
| | | | - Frédérik Saltré
- Environment Institute, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, 5005, Australia
| | - Alycia L Stigall
- Department of Geological Sciences, OHIO Center for Ecology and Evolutionary Studies, Ohio University, Athens, OH, 45701, USA
| | - Yi-Hsin Erica Tsai
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, 46556, USA
| | - John W Williams
- Department of Geography, Nelson Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
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17
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Wolkovich EM, Cook BI, McLauchlan KK, Davies TJ. Temporal ecology in the Anthropocene. Ecol Lett 2014; 17:1365-79. [DOI: 10.1111/ele.12353] [Citation(s) in RCA: 194] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2014] [Revised: 05/22/2014] [Accepted: 08/06/2014] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- E. M. Wolkovich
- Arnold Arboretum; Boston Massachusetts USA
- Organismic & Evolutionary Biology; Cambridge Massachusetts USA
- Biodiversity Research Centre; University of British Columbia; Vancouver BC Canada
| | - B. I. Cook
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; New York New York USA
- Ocean and Climate Physics; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory; Palisades New York USA
| | - K. K. McLauchlan
- Department of Geography; Kansas State University; Manhattan Kansas USA
- University of Oxford; Merton College; Oxford UK
| | - T. J. Davies
- Department of Biology; McGill University; Montreal Quebec Canada
- African Centre for DNA Barcoding; University of Johannesburg; Johannesburg South Africa
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18
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Gillson L, Marchant R. From myopia to clarity: sharpening the focus of ecosystem management through the lens of palaeoecology. Trends Ecol Evol 2014; 29:317-25. [PMID: 24768602 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2014.03.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 74] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2013] [Revised: 03/19/2014] [Accepted: 03/20/2014] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services in a changing environment requires a temporal perspective that informs realistic restoration and management targets. Such targets need to be dynamic, adaptive, and responsive to changing boundary conditions. However, the application of long-term data from palaeoecology is often hindered as the management and policy implications are not made explicit, and because data sets are often not accessible or amenable to stakeholders. Focussing on this translation gap, we explore how a palaeoecological perspective can change the focus of biodiversity management and conservation policy. We embed a long-term perspective (decades to millennia) into current adaptive management and policy frameworks, with the aim of encouraging better integration between palaeoecology, conservation management, and mainstreaming viable provision of ecosystem services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lindsey Gillson
- Plant Conservation Unit, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.
| | - Rob Marchant
- York Institute for Tropical Ecosystems, Environment Department, University of York, Heslington, York, YO10 5DD, UK
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19
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Kidwell SM, Tomasovych A. Implications of Time-Averaged Death Assemblages for Ecology and Conservation Biology. ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECOLOGY EVOLUTION AND SYSTEMATICS 2013. [DOI: 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110512-135838] [Citation(s) in RCA: 100] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Biologists increasingly appreciate the importance of community-level attributes in the functioning and temporal turnover of ecosystems, but data other than species richness are difficult to acquire over the habitat-to-regional and decadal-to-millennial scales needed to recognize biodiversity change, discriminate between natural and anthropogenic drivers, and inform theoretical and applied ecology. Death assemblages (DAs)—the actively accumulating organic remains encountered in present-day seabeds and landscapes, as distinct from permanently buried fossil assemblages—are an underexploited source of historical information at precisely these scales. Meta-analyses, dynamic modeling, and individual case studies, particularly of mollusks and mammals, reveal that DAs differ from censused living assemblages (LAs) primarily because they are temporally coarse, time-averaged samples, contrary to concerns that postmortem bias dominates. Temporal pooling predictably damps the ability of DAs to detect small-scale variation, but promotes their ability to inventory rare species; estimate the abundance structure of the metacommunity; document range changes; evaluate historic habitat use; and identify now-absent species, community states, and anthropogenically shifted baselines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susan M. Kidwell
- Department of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637
| | - Adam Tomasovych
- Geological Institute, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava 84005, Slovakia
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20
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Williams JW, Blois JL, Gill JL, Gonzales LM, Grimm EC, Ordonez A, Shuman B, Veloz SD. Model systems for a no-analog future: species associations and climates during the last deglaciation. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2013; 1297:29-43. [PMID: 23981247 DOI: 10.1111/nyas.12226] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
As the earth system moves to a novel state, model systems (experimental, observational, paleoecological) are needed to assess and improve the predictive accuracy of ecological models under environments with no contemporary analog. In recent years, we have intensively studied the no-analog plant associations and climates in eastern North America during the last deglaciation to better constrain their spatiotemporal distribution, test hypotheses about climatic and megaherbivory controls, and assess the accuracy of species- and community-level models. The formation of no-analog plant associations was asynchronous, beginning first in the south-central United States; at sites in the north-central United States, it is linked to declining megafaunal abundances. Insolation and temperature were more seasonal than present, creating climates currently nonexistent in North America, and shifting species-climate relationships for some taxa. These shifts pose a common challenge to empirical paleoclimatic reconstructions, species distribution models (SDMs), and conservation-optimization models based on SDMs. Steps forward include combining recent and paleoecological data to more fully describe species' fundamental niches, employing community-level models to model shifts in species interactions under no-analog climates, and assimilating paleoecological data with mechanistic ecosystem models. Accurately modeling species interactions under novel environments remains a fundamental challenge for all forms of ecological models.
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Affiliation(s)
- John W Williams
- Department of Geography; Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Wisconsin
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21
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Fritz SA, Schnitzler J, Eronen JT, Hof C, Böhning-Gaese K, Graham CH. Diversity in time and space: wanted dead and alive. Trends Ecol Evol 2013; 28:509-16. [PMID: 23726658 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 112] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2013] [Revised: 04/24/2013] [Accepted: 05/01/2013] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Current patterns of biological diversity are influenced by both historical and present-day factors, yet research in ecology and evolution is largely split between paleontological and neontological studies. Responding to recent calls for integration, we provide a conceptual framework that capitalizes on data and methods from both disciplines to investigate fundamental processes. We highlight the opportunities arising from a combined approach with four examples: (i) which mechanisms generate spatial and temporal variation in diversity; (ii) how traits evolve; (iii) what determines the temporal dynamics of geographical ranges and ecological niches; and (iv) how species-environment and biotic interactions shape community structure. Our framework provides conceptual guidelines for combining paleontological and neontological perspectives to unravel the fundamental processes shaping life on Earth.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susanne A Fritz
- Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F) and Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt, Germany.
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22
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Abstract
Human use of land has transformed ecosystem pattern and process across most of the terrestrial biosphere, a global change often described as historically recent and potentially catastrophic for both humanity and the biosphere. Interdisciplinary paleoecological, archaeological, and historical studies challenge this view, indicating that land use has been extensive and sustained for millennia in some regions and that recent trends may represent as much a recovery as an acceleration. Here we synthesize recent scientific evidence and theory on the emergence, history, and future of land use as a process transforming the Earth System and use this to explain why relatively small human populations likely caused widespread and profound ecological changes more than 3,000 y ago, whereas the largest and wealthiest human populations in history are using less arable land per person every decade. Contrasting two spatially explicit global reconstructions of land-use history shows that reconstructions incorporating adaptive changes in land-use systems over time, including land-use intensification, offer a more spatially detailed and plausible assessment of our planet's history, with a biosphere and perhaps even climate long ago affected by humans. Although land-use processes are now shifting rapidly from historical patterns in both type and scale, integrative global land-use models that incorporate dynamic adaptations in human–environment relationships help to advance our understanding of both past and future land-use changes, including their sustainability and potential global effects.
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Abstract
Human use of land has transformed ecosystem pattern and process across most of the terrestrial biosphere, a global change often described as historically recent and potentially catastrophic for both humanity and the biosphere. Interdisciplinary paleoecological, archaeological, and historical studies challenge this view, indicating that land use has been extensive and sustained for millennia in some regions and that recent trends may represent as much a recovery as an acceleration. Here we synthesize recent scientific evidence and theory on the emergence, history, and future of land use as a process transforming the Earth System and use this to explain why relatively small human populations likely caused widespread and profound ecological changes more than 3,000 y ago, whereas the largest and wealthiest human populations in history are using less arable land per person every decade. Contrasting two spatially explicit global reconstructions of land-use history shows that reconstructions incorporating adaptive changes in land-use systems over time, including land-use intensification, offer a more spatially detailed and plausible assessment of our planet's history, with a biosphere and perhaps even climate long ago affected by humans. Although land-use processes are now shifting rapidly from historical patterns in both type and scale, integrative global land-use models that incorporate dynamic adaptations in human-environment relationships help to advance our understanding of both past and future land-use changes, including their sustainability and potential global effects.
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