Spatial and temporal variation in biting rates and parasite transmission potentials of onchocerciasis vectors in Ecuador

Synthesizing environmental, epidemiological and vector and parasite genetic data to assist decision making for disease elimination

We present a framework for identifying when conditions are favourable for transmission of vector-borne diseases between communities by incorporating predicted disease prevalence mapping with landscape analysis of sociological, environmental and host/parasite genetic data. We explored the relationship between environmental features and gene flow of a filarial parasite of humans, Onchocerca volvulus, and its vector, blackflies in the genus Simulium. We generated a baseline microfilarial prevalence map from point estimates from 47 locations in the ecological transition separating the savannah and forest in Ghana, where transmission of O. volvulus persists despite onchocerciasis control efforts. We generated movement suitability maps based on environmental correlates with mitochondrial population structure of 164 parasites from 15 communities and 93 vectors from only four sampling sites, and compared these to the baseline prevalence map. Parasite genetic distance between sampling locations was significantly associated with elevation (r = .793, p = .005) and soil moisture (r = .507, p = .002), while vector genetic distance was associated with soil moisture (r = .788, p = .0417) and precipitation (r = .835, p = .0417). The correlation between baseline prevalence and parasite resistance surface maps was stronger than that between prevalence and vector resistance surface maps. The centre of the study area had high prevalence and suitability for parasite and vector gene flow, potentially contributing to persistent transmission and suggesting the importance of re-evaluating transmission zone boundaries. With suitably dense sampling, this framework can help delineate transmission zones for onchocerciasis and would be translatable to other vector-borne diseases.

Environmental and Spatial Predictors of the Distribution Patterns of the Host-Seeking Black Fly, Simulium jenningsi (Diptera: Simuliidae)

Black flies are nuisance pests as adults, yet they are best managed in the larval stage in flowing waters. As a result, more effort is put into understanding the distribution of the immature life stages than the blood-seeking females that form nuisance. The seemingly localized nature of Simulium jenningsi Malloch (Diptera: Simuliidae) pest problems in western Maryland offered a study system to investigate the spatial and environmental correlates to their severity. Collections of adult black flies were taken at 260 sites within a 2,000 km2 region centered on Washington County, Maryland, during June, July, and August of 2 yr. Average S. jenningsi counts were greater in the June of both years compared to July and August. Although S. jenningsi was found at the majority of sampling sites, higher fly counts were significantly clustered in the southern portion of the county where the majority of resident complaints originated. A generalized linear mixed-model (GLMM) approach was used to determine the correlates to S. jenningsi abundance. The highest performing model showed a negative relationship of S. jenningsi counts with the amount of surrounding impervious surface, distance to the riffles along the confluence of the Shenandoah and Potomac Rivers, distance to the closest body of flowing water, and light intensity, as well as a positive relationship with elevation and air temperature. The results suggest S. jenningsi females are not readily found in urban environments in this study region, and the most relevant monitoring locations for S. jenningsi may be outside of human population centers.

Modelling exposure heterogeneity and density dependence in onchocerciasis using a novel individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM: Implications for elimination and data needs

BACKGROUND

Density dependence in helminth establishment and heterogeneity in exposure to infection are known to drive resilience to interventions based on mass drug administration (MDA). However, the interaction between these processes is poorly understood. We developed a novel individual-based model for onchocerciasis transmission, EPIONCHO-IBM, which accounts for both processes. We fit the model to pre-intervention epidemiological data and explore parasite dynamics during MDA with ivermectin.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Density dependence and heterogeneity in exposure to blackfly (vector) bites were estimated by fitting the model to matched pre-intervention microfilarial prevalence, microfilarial intensity and vector biting rate data from savannah areas of Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire/Burkina Faso using Latin hypercube sampling. Transmission dynamics during 25 years of annual and biannual ivermectin MDA were investigated. Density dependence in parasite establishment within humans was estimated for different levels of (fixed) exposure heterogeneity to understand how parametric uncertainty may influence treatment dynamics. Stronger overdispersion in exposure to blackfly bites results in the estimation of stronger density-dependent parasite establishment within humans, consequently increasing resilience to MDA. For all levels of exposure heterogeneity tested, the model predicts a departure from the functional forms for density dependence assumed in the deterministic version of the model.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This is the first, stochastic model of onchocerciasis, that accounts for and estimates density-dependent parasite establishment in humans alongside exposure heterogeneity. Capturing the interaction between these processes is fundamental to our understanding of resilience to MDA interventions. Given that uncertainty in these processes results in very different treatment dynamics, collecting data on exposure heterogeneity would be essential for improving model predictions during MDA. We discuss possible ways in which such data may be collected as well as the importance of better understanding the effects of immunological responses on establishing parasites prior to and during ivermectin treatment.

The World Health Organization 2030 goals for onchocerciasis: Insights and perspectives from mathematical modelling: NTD Modelling Consortium Onchocerciasis Group

The World Health Organization (WHO) has embarked on a consultation process to refine the 2030 goals for priority neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), onchocerciasis among them. Current goals include elimination of transmission (EOT) by 2020 in Latin America, Yemen and selected African countries. The new goals propose that, by 2030, EOT be verified in 10 countries; mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin be stopped in at least one focus in 34 countries; and that the proportion of the population no longer in need of MDA be equal or greater than 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% in at least 16, 14, 12, and 10 countries, respectively. The NTD Modelling Consortium onchocerciasis teams have used EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM to provide modelling insights into these goals. EOT appears feasible in low-moderate endemic areas with long-term MDA at high coverage (≥75%), but uncertain in areas of higher endemicity, poor coverage and adherence, and where MDA has not yet, or only recently, started. Countries will have different proportions of their endemic areas classified according to these categories, and this distribution of pre-intervention prevalence and MDA duration and programmatic success will determine the feasibility of achieving the proposed MDA cessation goals. Highly endemic areas would benefit from switching to biannual or quarterly MDA and implementing vector control where possible (determining optimal frequency and duration of anti-vectorial interventions requires more research). Areas without loiasis that have not yet initiated MDA should implement biannual (preferably with moxidectin) or quarterly MDA from the start. Areas with loiasis not previously treated would benefit from implementing test-and(not)-treat-based interventions, vector control, and anti- Wolbachia therapies, but their success will depend on the levels of screening and coverage achieved and sustained. The diagnostic performance of IgG4 Ov16 serology for assessing EOT is currently uncertain. Verification of EOT requires novel diagnostics at the individual- and population-levels.

Elimination of onchocerciasis in Ecuador: findings of post-treatment surveillance

BACKGROUND

The Esmeraldas focus of onchocerciasis in Ecuador expanded geographically during the 1980s and was associated with severe ocular and skin disease. Mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin started in 1991, initially once but later twice a year, in the principle endemic focus followed by all satellite foci. Treatment was stopped in 2009 when entomological assessments determined that transmission of Onchocerca volvulus had been interrupted.

METHODS

Three years after the cessation of ivermectin treatment in 2012, as defined by the WHO guidelines for onchocerciasis elimination, blackfly collections were done in four sentinel sites in former hyperendemic areas. The presence of infective larvae in local vectors, Simulium exiguum and Simulum quadrivittatum, was assessed by detection of O. volvulus DNA by PCR. Additional flies captured in four extra-sentinel sites located in former hyper- and mesoendemic dispersed isolated areas were also assessed.

RESULTS

The results from 68,310 captured blackflies, 40,114 from four sentinel villages in the previously hyperendemic areas (Corriente Grande, El Tigre, San Miguel on Río Cayapas and Naranjal on Río Canandé) and 28,197 from extra-sentinel locations, were all negative for the presence of O. volvulus. These extra-sentinel sites (Hualpí on Río Hoja Blanca, Capulí on Río Onzole, La Ceiba on Río Tululví and Medianía on Río Verde) were included to provide additional evidence of the impact of MDA on the transmission of O. volvulus in isolated endemic areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data indicate that transmission of O. volvulus has been stopped in all endemic areas in Ecuador, including all satellite foci outside the main focus. These findings indicate that a strategy of ivermectin distribution twice a year to over 85% of the treatment-eligible population was effective in eliminating the infection from Ecuador in a focus with a highly competent primary vector, S. exiguum, and where the infection rates were equal to or greater than observed in many onchocerciasis foci in Africa.

Onchocerciasis transmission in Ghana: biting and parous rates of host-seeking sibling species of the Simulium damnosum complex

Background

Ghana is renowned for its sibling species diversity of the Simulium damnosum complex, vectors of Onchocerca volvulus. Detailed entomological knowledge becomes a priority as onchocerciasis control policy has shifted from morbidity reduction to elimination of infection. To date, understanding of transmission dynamics of O. volvulus has been mainly based on S. damnosum sensu stricto (s.s.) data. We aim to elucidate bionomic features of vector species of importance for onchocerciasis elimination efforts.

Methods

We collected S. damnosum sensu lato from seven villages in four Ghanaian regions between 2009 and 2011, using standard vector collection, and human- and cattle-baited tents. Taxa were identified using morphological and molecular techniques. Monthly biting rates (MBR), parous rates and monthly parous biting rates (MPBR) are reported by locality, season, trapping method and hour of collection for each species.

Results

S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum were collected at Asubende and Agborlekame, both savannah villages. A range of species was caught in the Volta region (forest-savannah mosaic) and Gyankobaa (forest), with S. squamosum or S. sanctipauli being the predominant species, respectively. In Bosomase (southern forest region) only S. sanctipauli was collected in the 2009 wet season, but in the 2010 dry season S. yahense was also caught. MBRs ranged from 714 bites/person/month at Agborlekame (100% S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum) to 8,586 bites/person/month at Pillar 83/Djodji (98.5% S. squamosum). MBRs were higher in the wet season. In contrast, parous rates were higher in the dry season (41.8% vs. 18.4%), resulting in higher MPBRs in the dry season. Daily host-seeking activity of S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum was bimodal, whilst S. squamosum and S. sanctipauli had unimodal afternoon peaks.

Conclusions

The bionomic differences between sibling species of the S. damnosum complex need to be taken into account when designing entomological monitoring protocols for interventions and parameterising mathematical models for onchocerciasis control and elimination.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0511-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A transmission model for the ecology of an avian blood parasite in a temperate ecosystem

Most of our knowledge about avian haemosporidian parasites comes from the Hawaiian archipelago, where recently introduced Plasmodiumrelictum has contributed to the extinction of many endemic avian species. While the ecology of invasive malaria is reasonably understood, the ecology of endemic haemosporidian infection in mainland systems is poorly understood, even though it is the rule rather than the exception. We develop a mathematical model to explore and identify the ecological factors that most influence transmission of the common avian parasite, Leucocytozoonfringillinarum (Apicomplexa). The model was parameterized from White-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichialeucophrys) and S. silvestre / craigi black fly populations breeding in an alpine ecosystem. We identify and examine the importance of altricial nestlings, the seasonal relapse of infected birds for parasite persistence across breeding seasons, and potential impacts of seasonal changes in black fly emergence on parasite prevalence in a high elevation temperate system. We also use the model to identify and estimate the parameters most influencing transmission dynamics. Our analysis found that relapse of adult birds and young of the year birds were crucial for parasite persistence across multiple seasons. However, distinguishing between nude nestlings and feathered young of the year was unnecessary. Finally, due to model sensitivity to many black fly parameters, parasite prevalence and sparrow recruitment may be most affected by seasonal changes in environmental temperature driving shifts in black fly emergence and gonotrophic cycles.

Assessment and monitoring of onchocerciasis in Latin America

Onchocerciasis has historically been one of the leading causes of infectious blindness worldwide. It is endemic to tropical regions both in Africa and Latin America and in the Yemen. In Latin America, it is found in 13 foci located in 6 different countries. The epidemiologically most important focus of onchocerciasis in the Americas is located in a region spanning the border between Guatemala and Mexico. However, the Amazonian focus straddling the border of Venezuela and Brazil is larger in overall area because the Yanomami populations are scattered over a very large geographical region. Onchocerciasis is caused by infection with the filarial parasite Onchocerca volvulus. The infection is spread through the bites of an insect vector, black flies of the genus Simulium. In Africa, the major vectors are members of the S. damnosum complex, while numerous species serve as vectors of the parasite in Latin America. Latin America has had a long history of attempts to control onchocerciasis, stretching back almost 100 years. The earliest programmes used a strategy of surgical removal of the adult parasites from affected individuals. However, because many of the adult parasites lodge in undetectable and inaccessible areas of the body, the overall effect of this strategy on the prevalence of infection was relatively minor. In 1988, a new drug, ivermectin, was introduced that effectively killed the larval stage (microfilaria) of the parasite in infected humans. As the microfilaria is both the stage that is transmitted by the vector fly and the cause of most of the pathologies associated with the infection, ivermectin opened up a new strategy for the control of onchocerciasis. Concurrent with the use of ivermectin for the treatment of onchocerciasis, a number of sensitive new diagnostic tools were developed (both serological and nucleic acid based) that provided the efficiency, sensitivity and specificity necessary to monitor the decline and eventual elimination of onchocerciasis as a result of successful control. As a result of these advances, a strategy for the elimination of onchocerciasis was developed, based upon mass distribution of ivermectin to afflicted communities for periods lasting long enough to ensure that the parasite population was placed on the road to local elimination. This strategy has been applied for the past decade to the foci in Latin America by a programme overseen by the Onchocerciasis Elimination Program for the Americas (OEPA). The efforts spearheaded by OEPA have been very successful, eliminating ocular disease caused by O. volvulus, and eliminating and interrupting transmission of the parasite in 8 of the 13 foci in the region. As onchocerciasis approaches elimination in Latin America, several questions still need to be addressed. These include defining an acceptable upper limit for transmission in areas in which transmission is thought to have been suppressed (e.g. what is the maximum value for the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for transmission rates in areas where transmission is no longer detectable), how to develop strategies for conducting surveillance for recrudescence of infection in areas in which transmission is thought to be interrupted and how to address the problem in areas where the mass distribution of ivermectin seems to be unable to completely eliminate the infection.

Onchocerca-Simulium interactions and the population and evolutionary biology of Onchocerca volvulus

Parasite-vector interactions shape the population dynamics of vector-borne infections and contribute to observed epidemiological patterns. Also, parasites and their vectors may co-evolve, giving rise to locally adapted combinations or complexes with the potential to stabilise the infection. Here, we focus on Onchocerca-Simulium interactions with particular reference to the transmission dynamics of human onchocerciasis. A wide range of simuliid species may act as vectors of Onchocerca volvulus, each exerting their own influence over the local epidemiology and the feasibility of controlling/eliminating the infection. Firstly, current understanding of the processes involved in parasite acquisition by, and development within, different Simulium species in West Africa and Latin America will be reviewed. A description of how Onchocerca and Simulium exert reciprocal effects on each other's survival at various stages of the parasite's life cycle within the blackfly, and may have adapted to minimise deleterious effects on fitness and maximise transmission will be given. Second, we describe the interactions in terms of resultant (positive and negative) density-dependent processes that regulate parasite abundance, and discuss their incorporation into mathematical models that provide useful qualitative insight regarding transmission breakpoints. Finally, we examine the interactions' influence upon the evolution of anthelmintic resistance, and conclude that local adaptation of Onchocerca-Simulium complexes will influence the feasibility of eliminating the parasite reservoir in different foci.

Vector competence for Onchocerca volvulus in the Simulium (Notolepria) exiguum complex: cytoforms or density-dependence?

Although Simulium exiguum Roubaud s.l. is present in all South American onchocerciasis foci, it is a significant vector only in Colombia and Ecuador. This variable vectorial role has been attributed to sibling forms that differ in their ability to allow Onchocerca volvulus larval development and their preferred bloodmeal hosts. Here we evaluate the relationship between parasite availability in human skin and infective larval output measured as (a) number of L3 larvae and (b) proportion of surviving flies with L3s in the Cayapa form of S. exiguum s.l. from Ecuador, taking into account the variation in counts of microfilariae (mf) from 6skin snips/patient. Comparisons with other cytoforms (Aguarico, Bucay and Quevedo, absent in the main Ecuadorean onchocerciasis foci) are made to suggest the relative roles of intrinsic susceptibility or co-adaptation versus density-dependent parasite uptake. A nonlinear (limitation) relationship, characterised by an initial rapid increase in infective larvae with increasing mf skin density was confirmed for the Cayapa cytoform. The proportion of infective Cayapa flies increased and saturated rapidly (reaching 80% for >/= 20mf/mg skin). After adjusting for density dependence, non-Cayapa cytoforms exhibited significantly lower L3 loads and proportions of infective flies for a given mf skin density than Cayapa flies, indicating that the susceptibility of those cytoforms is intrinsically lower than that of the Cayapa cytoform and that the differences observed are not due to density-dependent effects.

Impact of long-term treatment of onchocerciasis with ivermectin in Ecuador: potential for elimination of infection

BACKGROUND

Onchocerciasis is a leading cause of blindness worldwide, hence elimination of the infection is an important health priority. Community-based treatment programs with ivermectin form the basis of control programs for the disease in Latin America. The long-term administration of ivermectin could eliminate Onchocerca volvulus infection from endemic areas in Latin America.

METHODS

A strategy of annual to twice-annual treatments with ivermectin has been used for onchocerciasis in endemic communities in Ecuador for up to 14 years. The impact of ivermectin treatment on ocular morbidity, and O. volvulus infection and transmission was monitored in seven sentinel communities.

RESULTS

Over the period 1990-2003, high rates of treatment coverage of the eligible population were maintained in endemic communities (mean 85.2% per treatment round). Ivermectin reduced the prevalence of anterior segment disease of the eye to 0% in sentinel communities and had a major impact on the prevalence and transmission of infection, with possible elimination of infection in some foci.

CONCLUSION

The distribution of ivermectin in endemic communities in Ecuador might have eliminated ocular morbidity and significant progress has been made towards elimination of the infection. A strategy of more frequent treatments with ivermectin may be required in communities where the infection persists to achieve the objective of elimination of the infection from Ecuador. The elimination of the infection from an endemic country in Latin America would be a major public health achievement and could stimulate the implementation of elimination strategies in other endemic countries.

Diurnal biting periodicity of parous Simulium (Diptera: Simuliidae) vectors in the onchocerciasis Amazonian focus

We describe the hourly patterns of parous biting activity of the three main simuliid vectors of human onchocerciasis in the Amazonian focus straddling between Venezuela and Brazil, namely, Simulium guianense s.l. Wise; S. incrustatum Lutz, and S. oyapockense s.l. Floch and Abonnenc. Time series of the hourly numbers of host-seeking parous flies caught in five Yanomami villages during dry, rainy, and their transition periods from 1995 to 2001 were investigated using harmonic analysis (assuming an underlying circadian rhythm) and periodic correlation (based on Spearman's r). Parous S guianense s.l. showed a bimodal activity pattern, with a minor peak in mid-morning and a major peak at 16:00 h. S. incrustatum exhibited mainly unimodal activity during either early morning or midday according to locality. S. oyapockense s.l. bit humans throughout the day mainly between 10:00 and 16:00 h but also showed bimodal periodicity in some localities. Superimposed on the endogenous, species-specific daily cycles, parous activity showed variation according to locality, season, air temperature and relative humidity, with biting being promoted by warmer and drier hours during wet seasons/periods and reduced during hotter times in dry seasons or transitions. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for blackfly biology and ecology as well as onchocerciasis epidemiology and control.