Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of three family clusters of COVID-19 transmitted by latent patients in China

Estimate the incubation period of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19)

COVID-19 is an infectious disease that presents unprecedented challenges to society. Accurately estimating the incubation period of the coronavirus is critical for effective prevention and control. However, the exact incubation period remains unclear, as COVID-19 symptoms can appear in as little as 2 days or as long as 14 days or more after exposure. Accurate estimation requires original chain-of-infection data, which may not be fully available from the original outbreak in Wuhan, China. In this study, we estimated the incubation period of COVID-19 by leveraging well-documented and epidemiologically informative chain-of-infection data collected from 10 regions outside the original Wuhan areas prior to February 10, 2020. We employed a proposed Monte Carlo simulation approach and nonparametric methods to estimate the incubation period of COVID-19. We also utilized manifold learning and related statistical analysis to uncover incubation relationships between different age and gender groups. Our findings revealed that the incubation period of COVID-19 did not follow general distributions such as lognormal, Weibull, or Gamma. Using proposed Monte Carlo simulations and nonparametric bootstrap methods, we estimated the mean and median incubation periods as 5.84 (95% CI, 5.42-6.25 days) and 5.01 days (95% CI 4.00-6.00 days), respectively. We also found that the incubation periods of groups with ages greater than or equal to 40 years and less than 40 years demonstrated a statistically significant difference. The former group had a longer incubation period and a larger variance than the latter, suggesting the need for different quarantine times or medical intervention strategies. Our machine-learning results further demonstrated that the two age groups were linearly separable, consistent with previous statistical analyses. Additionally, our results indicated that the incubation period difference between males and females was not statistically significant.

Incubation Period of COVID-19 Caused by Unique SARS-CoV-2 Strains: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Several studies were conducted to estimate the average incubation period of COVID-19; however, the incubation period of COVID-19 caused by different SARS-CoV-2 variants is not well described.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically assess the incubation period of COVID-19 and the incubation periods of COVID-19 caused by different SARS-CoV-2 variants in published studies.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, EMBASE, and ScienceDirect were searched between December 1, 2019, and February 10, 2022.

STUDY SELECTION

Original studies of the incubation period of COVID-19, defined as the time from infection to the onset of signs and symptoms.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline, 3 reviewers independently extracted the data from the eligible studies in March 2022. The parameters, or sufficient information to facilitate calculation of those values, were derived from random-effects meta-analysis.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The mean estimate of the incubation period and different SARS-CoV-2 strains.

RESULTS

A total of 142 studies with 8112 patients were included. The pooled incubation period was 6.57 days (95% CI, 6.26-6.88) and ranged from 1.80 to 18.87 days. The incubation period of COVID-19 caused by the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants were reported in 1 study (with 6374 patients), 1 study (10 patients), 6 studies (2368 patients) and 5 studies (829 patients), respectively. The mean incubation period of COVID-19 was 5.00 days (95% CI, 4.94-5.06 days) for cases caused by the Alpha variant, 4.50 days (95% CI, 1.83-7.17 days) for the Beta variant, 4.41 days (95% CI, 3.76-5.05 days) for the Delta variant, and 3.42 days (95% CI, 2.88-3.96 days) for the Omicron variant. The mean incubation was 7.43 days (95% CI, 5.75-9.11 days) among older patients (ie, aged over 60 years old), 8.82 days (95% CI, 8.19-9.45 days) among infected children (ages 18 years or younger), 6.99 days (95% CI, 6.07-7.92 days) among patients with nonsevere illness, and 6.69 days (95% CI, 4.53-8.85 days) among patients with severe illness.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this study suggest that SARS-CoV-2 has evolved and mutated continuously throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, producing variants with different enhanced transmission and virulence. Identifying the incubation period of different variants is a key factor in determining the isolation period.

A Meta-analysis on the Role of Children in Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Household Transmission Clusters

The role of children in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 remains highly controversial. To address this issue, we performed a meta-analysis of the published literature on household SARS-CoV-2 transmission clusters (n=213 from 12 countries). Only 8 (3.8%) transmission clusters were identified as having a paediatric index case. Asymptomatic index cases were associated with a lower secondary attack in contacts than symptomatic index cases (estimate risk ratio [RR], 0.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.09-0.29). To determine the susceptibility of children to household infections the secondary attack rate (SAR) in paediatric household contacts was assessed. The secondary attack rate in paediatric household contacts was lower than in adult household contacts (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.42-0.91). These data have important implications for the ongoing management of the COVID-19 pandemic, including potential vaccine prioritization strategies.

The incubation period during the pandemic of COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The aim of our study was to determine through a systematic review and meta-analysis the incubation period of COVID-19. It was conducted based on the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA). Criteria for eligibility were all published population-based primary literature in PubMed interface and the Science Direct, dealing with incubation period of COVID-19, written in English, since December 2019 to December 2020. We estimated the mean of the incubation period using meta-analysis, taking into account between-study heterogeneity, and the analysis with moderator variables.

RESULTS

This review included 42 studies done predominantly in China. The mean and median incubation period were of maximum 8 days and 12 days respectively. In various parametric models, the 95th percentiles were in the range 10.3-16 days. The highest 99th percentile would be as long as 20.4 days. Out of the 10 included studies in the meta-analysis, 8 were conducted in China, 1 in Singapore, and 1 in Argentina. The pooled mean incubation period was 6.2 (95% CI 5.4, 7.0) days. The heterogeneity (I² 77.1%; p < 0.001) was decreased when we included the study quality and the method of calculation used as moderator variables (I² 0%). The mean incubation period ranged from 5.2 (95% CI 4.4 to 5.9) to 6.65 days (95% CI 6.0 to 7.2).

CONCLUSIONS

This work provides additional evidence of incubation period for COVID-19 and showed that it is prudent not to dismiss the possibility of incubation periods up to 14 days at this stage of the epidemic.

Clinical and radiographic characteristics, management and short-term outcomes of patients with COVID-19 in Wenzhou, China

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an emerging viral disease. Here, we report the clinical features, management, and short-term outcomes of COVID-19 patients in Wenzhou, China, an area outside Wuhan.

METHODS

Patients admitted to the Infectious Diseases Department of Ruian People's Hospital in Wenzhou, from January 21 to February 7, 2020, were recruited. Medical data on epidemiological history, demographics, clinical characteristics, laboratory tests, chest computerized tomography (CT) examination, treatment, and short-term outcomes were retrospectively reviewed. Blood biochemistry and routine tests were examined using standard methods and automatic machines. CT examination was performed several times during hospitalization as necessary.

RESULTS

A total of 67 confirmed COVID-19 cases were diagnosed; 64 (95.4%) were common cases and three (4.5%) were severe cases. The most common symptoms at admission were fever (86.6%), cough (77.6%), productive cough (52.2%), chest distress (17.9%), and sore throat (11.9%), followed by diarrhea (7.4%), headache (7.4%), shortness of breath (6.0%), dizziness (4.5%), muscular soreness (4.5%), and running nose (4.5%). Thirty patients (47.8%) had increased C-reactive protein levels. The CT radiographs at admission showed abnormal findings in 54 (80.6%) patients. The patients were treated mainly by oxygen therapy and antiviral drugs. By March 3, 2020, all 67 patients completely recovered and had negative nucleic acid tests. The patients were discharged from the hospital and transferred to a medical observation isolation center for further observation.

CONCLUSION

Cases of COVID-19 in Wenzhou are milder and have a better prognosis, compared to those in Wuhan. Timely and appropriate screening, diagnosis, and treatment are the key to achieve good outcomes.