Will a new clade of SARS-CoV-2 imported into the community spark a fourth wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hong Kong?

Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of the outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Shanghai, China: A descriptive study

Background

In early March 2022, a major outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant spread rapidly throughout Shanghai, China. Here we aimed to provide a description of the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of the Omicron outbreak under the population-based screening and lockdown policies implemented in Shanghai.

Methods

We extracted individual information on SARS-CoV-2 infections reported between January 1 and May 31, 2022, and on the timeline of the adopted non-pharmaceutical interventions. The epidemic was divided into three phases: i) sporadic infections (January 1-February 28), ii) local transmission (March 1-March 31), and iii) city-wide lockdown (April 1 to May 31). We described the epidemic spread during these three phases and the subdistrict-level spatiotemporal distribution of the infections. To evaluate the impact on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 of the adopted targeted interventions in Phase 2 and city-wide lockdown in Phase 3, we estimated the dynamics of the net reproduction number (Rt ).

Findings

A surge in imported infections in Phase 1 triggered cryptic local transmission of the Omicron variant in early March, resulting in the largest outbreak in mainland China since the original wave. A total of 626,000 SARS-CoV-2 infections were reported in 99.5% (215/216) of the subdistricts of Shanghai until the end of May. The spatial distribution of the infections was highly heterogeneous, with 37% of the subdistricts accounting for 80% of all infections. A clear trend from the city center towards adjacent suburban and rural areas was observed, with a progressive slowdown of the epidemic spread (from 463 to 244 meters/day) prior to the citywide lockdown. During Phase 2, Rt remained well above 1 despite the implementation of multiple targeted interventions. The citywide lockdown imposed on April 1 led to a marked decrease in transmission, bringing Rt below the epidemic threshold in the entire city on April 14 and ultimately leading to containment of the outbreak.

Interpretation

Our results highlight the risk of widespread outbreaks in mainland China, particularly under the heightened pressure of imported infections. The targeted interventions adopted in March 2022 were not capable of halting transmission, and the implementation of a strict, prolonged city-wide lockdown was needed to successfully contain the outbreak, highlighting the challenges for containing Omicron outbreaks.

Funding

Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82130093); Shanghai Rising-Star Program (22QA1402300).

Understanding spatiotemporal symptom onset risk of Omicron BA.1, BA.2 and hamster-related Delta AY.127

Purpose

Investigation of the community-level symptomatic onset risk regarding severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern, is crucial to the pandemic control in the new normal.

Methods

Investigated in this study is the spatiotemporal symptom onset risk with Omicron BA.1, BA.2, and hamster-related Delta AY.127 by a joint analysis of community-based human mobility, virus genomes, and vaccinations in Hong Kong.

Results

The spatial spread of Omicron BA.2 was found to be 2.91 times and 2.56 times faster than that of Omicron BA.1 and Delta AY.127. Identified has been an early spatial invasion process in which spatiotemporal symptom onset risk was associated with intercommunity and cross-community human mobility of a dominant source location, especially regarding enhancement of the effects of the increased intrinsic transmissibility of Omicron BA.2. Further explored is the spread of Omicron BA.1, BA.2, and Delta AY.127 under different full and booster vaccination rate levels. An increase in full vaccination rates has primarily contributed to the reduction in areas within lower onset risk. An increase in the booster vaccination rate can promote a reduction in those areas within higher onset risk.

Conclusions

This study has provided a comprehensive investigation concerning the spatiotemporal symptom onset risk of Omicron BA.1, BA.2, and hamster-related Delta AY.127, and as such can contribute some help to countries and regions regarding the prevention of the emergence of such as these variants, on a strategic basis. Moreover, this study provides scientifically derived findings on the impact of full and booster vaccination campaigns working in the area of the reduction of symptomatic infections.

Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of the outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Shanghai, China: a descriptive study

Background

In early March 2022, a major outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant spread rapidly throughout Shanghai, China. Here we aimed to provide a description of the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of the Omicron outbreak under the population-based screening and lockdown policies implemented in Shanghai.

Methods

We extracted individual information on SARS-CoV-2 infections reported between January 1 and May 31, 2022, and on the timeline of the adopted non-pharmacological interventions. The epidemic was divided into three phases: i) sporadic infections (January 1-February 28), ii) local transmission (March 1-March 31), and iii) city-wide lockdown (April 1 to May 31). We described the epidemic spread during these three phases and the subdistrict-level spatiotemporal distribution of the infections. To evaluate the impact on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 of the adopted targeted interventions in Phase 2 and city-wide lockdown in Phase 3, we estimated the dynamics of the net reproduction number ( R t ).

Findings

A surge in imported infections in Phase 1 triggered cryptic local transmission of the Omicron variant in early March, resulting in the largest coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in mainland China since the original wave. A total of 626,000 SARS-CoV-2 infections were reported in 99.5% (215/216) of the subdistricts of Shanghai. The spatial distribution of the infections was highly heterogeneous, with 40% of the subdistricts accounting for 80% of all infections. A clear trend from the city center towards adjacent suburban and rural areas was observed, with a progressive slowdown of the epidemic spread (from 544 to 325 meters/day) prior to the citywide lockdown. During Phase 2, R t remained well above 1 despite the implementation of multiple targeted interventions. The citywide lockdown imposed on April 1 led to a marked decrease in transmission, bringing R t below the epidemic threshold in the entire city on April 14 and ultimately leading to containment of the outbreak.

Interpretation

Our results highlight the risk of widespread outbreaks in mainland China, particularly under the heightened pressure of imported infections. The targeted interventions adopted in March 2022 were not capable of halting transmission, and the implementation of a strict, prolonged city-wide lockdown was needed to successfully contain the outbreak, highlighting the challenges for successfully containing Omicron outbreaks.

Funding

Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82130093).

Research in context

Evidence before this study: On May 24, 2022, we searched PubMed and Europe PMC for papers published or posted on preprint servers after January 1, 2022, using the following query: ("SARS-CoV-2" OR "Omicron" OR "BA.2") AND ("epidemiology" OR "epidemiological" OR "transmission dynamics") AND ("Shanghai"). A total of 26 studies were identified; among them, two aimed to describe or project the spread of the 2022 Omicron outbreak in Shanghai. One preprint described the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 376 pediatric SARS-CoV-2 infections in March 2022, and the other preprint projected the epidemic progress in Shanghai, without providing an analysis of field data. In sum, none of these studies provided a comprehensive description of the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of the outbreak.Added value of this study: We collected individual information on SARS-CoV-2 infection and the timeline of the public health response. Population-based screenings were repeatedly implemented during the outbreak, which allowed us to investigate the spatiotemporal spread of the Omicron BA.2 variant as well as the impact of the implemented interventions, all without enduring significant amounts of underreporting from surveillance systems, as experienced in other areas. This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of the Omicron outbreak in Shanghai, China.Implications of all the available evidence: This descriptive study provides a comprehensive understanding of the epidemiological features and transmission dynamics of the Omicron outbreak in Shanghai, China. The empirical evidence from Shanghai, which was ultimately able to curtail the outbreak, provides invaluable information to policymakers on the impact of the containment strategies adopted by the Shanghai public health officials to prepare for potential outbreaks caused by Omicron or novel variants.

The fine-scale associations between socioeconomic status, density, functionality, and spread of COVID-19 within a high-density city

BACKGROUND

Motivated by the need for precise epidemic control and epidemic-resilient urban design, this study aims to reveal the joint and interactive associations between urban socioeconomic, density, connectivity, and functionality characteristics and the COVID-19 spread within a high-density city. Many studies have been made on the associations between urban characteristics and the COVID-19 spread, but there is a scarcity of such studies in the intra-city scale and as regards complex joint and interactive associations by using advanced machine learning approaches.

METHODS

Differential-evolution-based association rule mining was used to investigate the joint and interactive associations between the urban characteristics and the spatiotemporal distribution of COVID-19 confirmed cases, at the neighborhood scale in Hong Kong. The associations were comparatively studied for the distribution of the cases in four waves of COVID-19 transmission: before Jun 2020 (wave 1 and 2), Jul-Oct 2020 (wave 3), and Nov 2020-Feb 2021 (wave 4), and for local and imported confirmed cases.

RESULTS

The first two waves of COVID-19 were found mainly characterized by higher-socioeconomic-status (SES) imported cases. The third-wave outbreak concentrated in densely populated and usually lower-SES neighborhoods, showing a high risk of within-neighborhood virus transmissions jointly contributed by high density and unfavorable SES. Starting with a super-spread which considerably involved high-SES population, the fourth-wave outbreak showed a stronger link to cross-neighborhood transmissions driven by urban functionality. Then the outbreak diffused to lower-SES neighborhoods and interactively aggravated the within-neighborhood pandemic transmissions. Association was also found between a higher SES and a slightly longer waiting period (i.e., the period from symptom onset to diagnosis of symptomatic cases), which further indicated the potential contribution of higher-SES population to the pandemic transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study may provide references to developing precise anti-pandemic measures for specific neighborhoods and virus transmission routes. The study also highlights the essentiality of reliving co-locating overcrowdedness and unfavorable SES for developing epidemic-resilient compact cities, and the higher obligation of higher-SES population to conform anti-pandemic policies.

In-Silico Identification of Natural Compounds from Traditional Medicine as Potential Drug Leads against SARS-CoV-2 Through Virtual Screening

The novel coronavirus strain SARS-CoV-2 is the virus responsible for the recent global health crisis, as it causes the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) in humans. Due to its high rate of spreading and significant fatality rates, the situation has escalated to a pandemic, which is the cause of immense disruption in daily life. In this study, we have taken a docking-based virtual screening approach to select natural molecules (from plants) with possible therapeutic potential. For this purpose, AUTODOCK Vina-based determination of binding affinity values (blind and active-site oriented) was obtained to short-list molecules with possible inhibitory potential against the main Mpro in SARS-CoV-2 (PDB ID 6Y2F -the monomeric form). The 4 molecules selected were Chebuloside (−8.2; −8.2), Acetoside (−8.0; −8.0), Corilagin (−8.1; −7.7) and Arjunolic Acid (−8.0; −7.6) (blind and active-site oriented docking scores (Kcal/mol) in parenthesis, respectively). Further, a comparative search, with FDA-approved drugs, has shown that Ouabain was comparable to Chebuloside with a similarity score of 0.227. This in silico finding with respect to Ouabain is significant, since this polycyclic glycoside has been shown to treat COVID-19 positive patients with a cardiovascular disease. Hydrocortisone was similar to Arjunolic acid with a score of 0.539. Again, this likeness is worthy of mention, since hydrocortisone has been used earlier for the treatment of SARS-CoV1 and MERS. However, further experimentation and validation of the results, in suitable biological model systems, are necessary to gain more insight and relevance as well as provide corroborative evidence for our in-silico findings.

A low-cost TaqMan minor groove binder probe-based one-step RT-qPCR assay for rapid identification of N501Y variants of SARS-CoV-2

The increasing prevalence of N501Y variants of SARS-CoV-2 has kindled global concern due to their enhanced transmissibility. Genome sequencing is the gold standard method to identify the emerging variants of concern. But it is time-consuming and expensive, limiting the widespread deployment of genome surveillance in some countries. Health authorities surge the development of alternative assay to expand screening capacity with reduced time and cost. In this study, we developed an in-house TaqMan minor groove binder (MGB) probe-based one-step RT-qPCR assay to detect the presence of N501Y mutation in SARS-CoV-2. A total of 168 SARS-CoV-2 positive respiratory specimens were collected to determine diagnostic accuracy of the RT-qPCR assay. As a reference standard, PANGO lineages and the mutation patterns of all samples were characterised by whole-genome sequencing. The analytical sensitivity and the ability of the assay to detect low frequency of N501Y variants were also evaluated. A total of 31 PANGO lineages were identified from 168 SARS-CoV-2 positive cases, in which 34 samples belonged to N501Y variants, including B.1.1.7 (n = 20), B.1.351 (n = 12) and P.3 (n = 2). The N501Y RT-qPCR correctly identified all 34 samples as N501Y-positive and the other 134 samples as wildtype. The limit-of-detection of the assay consistently achieved 1.5 copies/μL on four different qPCR platforms. N501Y mutation was successfully detected at an allele frequency as low as 10 % in a sample with mixed SARS-CoV-2 lineage. The N501Y RT-qPCR is simple and inexpensive (US$1.6 per sample). It enables robust high-throughput screening for surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern harbouring N501Y mutation.

Complementation of contact tracing by mass testing for successful containment of beta COVID-19 variant (SARS-CoV-2 VOC B.1.351) epidemic in Hong Kong

BACKGROUND

Global dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern (VOCs) remains a concern. The aim of this study is to describe how mass testing and phylogenetic analysis successfully prevented local transmission of SARS-CoV-2 VOC in a densely populated city with low herd immunity for COVID-19.

METHODS

In this descriptive study, we conducted contact tracing, quarantine, and mass testing of the potentially exposed contacts with the index case. Epidemiological investigation and phylogeographic analysis were performed.

FINDINGS

Among 11,818 laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 diagnosed till 13th May 2021 in Hong Kong, SARS-CoV-2 VOCs were found in 271 (2.3%) cases. Except for 10 locally acquired secondary cases, all SARS-CoV-2 VOCs were imported or acquired in quarantine hotels. The index case of this SARS-CoV-2 VOC B.1.351 epidemic, an inbound traveler with asymptomatic infection, was diagnosed 9 days after completing 21 days of quarantine. Contact tracing of 163 contacts in household, hotel, and residential building only revealed 1 (0.6%) secondary case. A symptomatic foreign domestic helper (FDH) without apparent epidemiological link but infected by virus with identical genome sequence was subsequently confirmed. Mass testing of 0.34 million FDHs identified two more cases which were phylogenetically linked. A total of 10 secondary cases were identified that were related to two household gatherings. The clinical attack rate of household close contact was significantly higher than non-household exposure during quarantine (7/25, 28% vs 0/2051, 0%; p<0.001).

INTERPRETATION

The rising epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 VOC transmission could be successfully controlled by contact tracing, quarantine, and rapid genome sequencing complemented by mass testing.

FUNDING

Health and Medical Research Fund Commissioned Research on Control of Infectious Disease (see acknowledgments for full list).

Quantifying superspreading for COVID-19 using Poisson mixture distributions

The number of secondary cases, i.e. the number of new infections generated by an infectious individual, is an important parameter for the control of infectious diseases. When individual variation in disease transmission is present, like for COVID-19, the distribution of the number of secondary cases is skewed and often modeled using a negative binomial distribution. However, this may not always be the best distribution to describe the underlying transmission process. We propose the use of three other offspring distributions to quantify heterogeneity in transmission, and we assess the possible bias in estimates of the mean and variance of this distribution when the data generating distribution is different from the one used for inference. We also analyze COVID-19 data from Hong Kong, India, and Rwanda, and quantify the proportion of cases responsible for 80% of transmission, [Formula: see text], while acknowledging the variation arising from the assumed offspring distribution. In a simulation study, we find that variance estimates may be biased when there is a substantial amount of heterogeneity, and that selection of the most accurate distribution from a set of distributions is important. In addition we find that the number of secondary cases for two of the three COVID-19 datasets is better described by a Poisson-lognormal distribution.

Introduction of ORF3a-Q57H SARS-CoV-2 Variant Causing Fourth Epidemic Wave of COVID-19, Hong Kong, China

We describe an introduction of clade GH severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 causing a fourth wave of coronavirus disease in Hong Kong. The virus has an ORF3a-Q57H mutation, causing truncation of ORF3b. This virus evades induction of cytokine, chemokine, and interferon-stimulated gene expression in primary human respiratory cells.

The surveillance of spike protein for patients with COVID-19 detected in Hong Kong in 2020

In 2020, numerous fast-spreading severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants have been reported. These variants had unusually high genetic changes in the spike (S) protein. In an attempt to understand the genetic background of SARS-CoV-2 viruses in Hong Kong, especially before vaccination, the purpose of this study is to summarize the S protein mutations detected among coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in Hong Kong in 2020. COVID-19 cases were selected every month in 2020. One virus from each case was analyzed. The full encoding region of the S proteins was sequenced. From January 2020 to December 2020, a total of 340 COVID-19 viruses were sequenced. The amino acids of the S protein for 44 (12.9%) were identical to the reference sequence, WIV04 (GenBank accession MN996528). For the remaining 296 sequences (87.1%), a total of 43 nonsynonymous substitution patterns were found. Of the nonsynonymous substitutions found, some of them were only detected at specific time intervals and then they disappeared. The ongoing genetic surveillance system is important. It would facilitate early detection of mutations that can increase infectivity as well as mutations that are selected for the virus to escape immunological restraint.

Performance of Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis of Emergency System in COVID-19 Pandemic. An Extensive Narrative Review

The actual coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to the limit of emergency systems worldwide, leading to the collapse of health systems, police, first responders, as well as other areas. Various ways of dealing with this world crisis have been proposed from many aspects, with fuzzy multi-criteria decision analysis being a method that can be applied to a wide range of emergency systems and professional groups, aiming to confront several associated issues and challenges. The purpose of this critical review was to discuss the basic principles, present current applications during the first pandemic wave, and propose future implications of this methodology. For this purpose, both primary sources, such as scientific articles, and secondary ones, such as bibliographic indexes, web pages, and databases, were used. The main search engines were PubMed, SciELO, and Google Scholar. The method was a systematic literature review of the available literature regarding the performance of the fuzzy multi-criteria decision analysis of emergency systems in the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of this study highlight the importance of the fuzzy multi-criteria decision analysis method as a beneficial tool for healthcare workers and first responders’ emergency professionals to face this pandemic as well as to manage the created uncertainty and its related risks.

COVID-19 Pandemic and Physical Exercise: Lessons Learnt for Confined Communities

The novel pandemic called "Coronavirus Disease 2019" (COVID-19), as a global public health emergency and global threat, has affected many countries in unpredictable ways and impacted on physical activity (PA) behaviors to various extents. Specific populations including refugees, asylum seekers, and prisoners, are vulnerable groups with multiple complex health needs and worse health outcomes with respect to the general population worldwide and at high risk of death from the "Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-related Coronavirus type 2" (SARS-CoV-2). Governments around the world have been implementing preventive healthcare policies, including physical and social distancing, isolation, and confinement, to mitigate against the burden imposed by the COVID-19 outbreak. This pandemic period is characterized by reduced or lack of movement. During this period of lockdown, PA can represent an immunotherapy and a preventative approach to avoid the harmful effects of inactivity due to the pandemic. Moreover, PA could be prescribed to improve the immune system of specific populations (refugees, asylum seekers, and prisoners), which particularly experience the condition of being confined. The present narrative review discusses the potential impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on these specific populations' health status and the importance of performing PA/exercise to reduce the deleterious effects of COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, we aim to provide useful recommendations on PA/exercise for these specific populations to maintain their level of independence, physical, and mental health as well as their wellbeing.

Phylogenomic analysis of COVID-19 summer and winter outbreaks in Hong Kong: An observational study

BACKGROUND

Viral genomic surveillance is vital for understanding the transmission of COVID-19. In Hong Kong, breakthrough outbreaks have occurred in July (third wave) and November (fourth wave) 2020. We used whole viral genome analysis to study the characteristics of these waves.

METHODS

We analyzed 509 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected from Hong Kong patients between 22nd January and 29th November, 2020. Phylogenetic and phylodynamic analyses were performed, and were interpreted with epidemiological information.

FINDINGS

During the third and fourth waves, diverse SARS-CoV-2 genomes were identified among imported infections. Conversely, local infections were dominated by a single lineage during each wave, with 96.6% (259/268) in the third wave and 100% (73/73) in the fourth wave belonging to B.1.1.63 and B.1.36.27 lineages, respectively. While B.1.1.63 lineage was imported 2 weeks before the beginning of the third wave, B.1.36.27 lineage has circulated in Hong Kong for 2 months prior to the fourth wave. During the fourth wave, 50.7% (37/73) of local infections in November was identical to the viral genome from an imported case in September. Within B.1.1.63 or B.1.36.27 lineage in our cohort, the most common non-synonymous mutations occurred at the helicase (nsp13) gene.

INTERPRETATION

Although stringent measures have prevented most imported cases from spreading in Hong Kong, a single lineage with low-level local transmission in October and early November was responsible for the fourth wave. A superspreading event or lower temperature in November may have facilitated the spread of the B.1.36.27 lineage.

Nosocomial outbreak of COVID-19 by possible airborne transmission leading to a superspreading event

Background

Nosocomial outbreaks with superspreading of COVID-19 due to a possible airborne transmission has not been reported.

Methods

Epidemiological analysis, environmental samplings, and whole genome sequencing (WGS) were performed for a hospital outbreak.

Results

A superspreading event involving 12 patients and 9 healthcare workers (HCWs) occurred within 4 days in 3 of 6 cubicles at an old-fashioned general ward with no air exhaust built within the cubicles. The environmental contamination by SARS-CoV-2 RNA was significantly higher in air grilles (>2m from patients’ head and not reachable by hands) than high-touch clinical surfaces (36.4%, 8/22 vs 3.4%, 1/29, p=0.003). Six (66.7%) of 9 contaminated air exhaust grilles were located outside patient cubicle. The clinical attack rate of patients was significantly higher than HCWs (15.4%, 12/78 exposed-patients vs 4.6%, 9/195 exposed-HCWs, p=0.005). Moreover, clinical attack rate of ward-based HCWs was significantly higher than non-ward-based HCWs (8.1%, 7/68 vs 1.8%, 2/109, p=0.045). The episodes (mean ± S.D) of patient-care duty assignment in the cubicles was significantly higher among infected ward-based HCWs than non-infected ward-based HCWs (6.0±2.4 vs 3.0±2.9, p=0.012) during the outbreak period. The outbreak strains belong to SARS-CoV-2 lineage, B.1.36.27 (GISAID Clade GH) with the unique S-T470N mutation on WGS.

Conclusion

This nosocomial point source superspreading due to possible airborne transmission demonstrated the need for stringent SARS-CoV-2 screening at admission to healthcare facilities and better architectural design of the ventilation system to prevent such outbreaks. Portable high-efficiency particulate filters were installed in each cubicle to improve ventilation before resumption of clinical service.