Temperate marine protected area provides recruitment subsidies to local fisheries

Ecological success of no-take marine protected areas: Using population dynamics theory to inform a global meta-analysis

Adaptively managing marine protected areas (MPAs) requires accurately assessing whether established MPAs are achieving their goals of protecting and conserving biomass, especially for harvested populations. Ecological MPA assessments commonly compare inside of the MPA to a reference point outside of and/or before implementation (i.e., calculating "response ratios"). Yet, MPAs are not simple ecological experiments; by design, protected populations interact with those outside, and population dynamic responses can be nonlinear. This complicates assessment interpretations. Here, we used a two-patch population model to explore how MPA response ratios (outside-inside, before-after, and before-after-control-impact [BACI]) for fished populations behave under different conditions, like whether the population is receiving a sustainable larval supply or if it is declining despite protection from harvest. We then conducted a Bayesian evaluation of MPA effects on fish and invertebrate populations based on data collected from 82 published studies on 264 no-take MPAs worldwide, using the results of an earlier global meta-analysis as priors. We considered the effects of calculating different summary metrics on these results, drawing on the theoretical insights from our population model as a comparative framework. We demonstrate that not all response ratio comparison types provide the same information: For example, outside-inside and BACI comparisons can fail to detect population decline within MPAs, whereas before-after comparisons likely detect that pattern. Considering these limitations, we nonetheless found that MPAs globally are producing positive outcomes, with on average greater biomass, density, and organism size within their boundaries than reference sites. However, only a small portion of studies (18 of 82) provided the temporal data necessary to determine that protection, on average, has led to increased abundance of populations within MPAs over time. These findings demonstrate the importance of considering the underlying system dynamics when assessing MPA effects. Assuming that large outside-inside or BACI response ratios always reflect large and net positive conservation effects may lead to misleading conclusions, we recommend that: (1) when assessing specific MPA effects, empirical findings be considered alongside theoretical knowledge relevant to that MPA system, and (2) management should respond to the local conditions and outcomes, rather than a blanket expectation for positive MPA effects.

Effects of human footprint and biophysical factors on the body-size structure of fished marine species

Marine fisheries in coastal ecosystems in many areas of the world have historically removed large-bodied individuals, potentially impairing ecosystem functioning and the long-term sustainability of fish populations. Reporting on size-based indicators that link to food-web structure can contribute to ecosystem-based management, but the application of these indicators over large (cross-ecosystem) geographical scales has been limited to either fisheries-dependent catch data or diver-based methods restricted to shallow waters (<20 m) that can misrepresent the abundance of large-bodied fished species. We obtained data on the body-size structure of 82 recreationally or commercially targeted marine demersal teleosts from 2904 deployments of baited remote underwater stereo-video (stereo-BRUV). Sampling was at up to 50 m depth and covered approximately 10,000 km of the continental shelf of Australia. Seascape relief, water depth, and human gravity (i.e., a proxy of human impacts) were the strongest predictors of the probability of occurrence of large fishes and the abundance of fishes above the minimum legal size of capture. No-take marine reserves had a positive effect on the abundance of fishes above legal size, although the effect varied across species groups. In contrast, sublegal fishes were best predicted by gradients in sea surface temperature (mean and variance). In areas of low human impact, large fishes were about three times more likely to be encountered and fishes of legal size were approximately five times more abundant. For conspicuous species groups with contrasting habitat, environmental, and biogeographic affinities, abundance of legal-size fishes typically declined as human impact increased. Our large-scale quantitative analyses highlight the combined importance of seascape complexity, regions with low human footprint, and no-take marine reserves in protecting large-bodied fishes across a broad range of species and ecosystem configurations.

Protecting connectivity promotes successful biodiversity and fisheries conservation

The global decline of coral reefs has led to calls for strategies that reconcile biodiversity conservation and fisheries benefits. Still, considerable gaps in our understanding of the spatial ecology of ecosystem services remain. We combined spatial information on larval dispersal networks and estimates of human pressure to test the importance of connectivity for ecosystem service provision. We found that reefs receiving larvae from highly connected dispersal corridors were associated with high fish species richness. Generally, larval "sinks" contained twice as much fish biomass as "sources" and exhibited greater resilience to human pressure when protected. Despite their potential to support biodiversity persistence and sustainable fisheries, up to 70% of important dispersal corridors, sinks, and source reefs remain unprotected, emphasizing the need for increased protection of networks of well-connected reefs.

Stochastic nature of larval dispersal at sea

The movement of individuals across landscapes remains a fundamental process in population and community ecology. All species have developed a capacity to disperse but this process remains elusive in organisms with complex life-cycles, and none more so than in the marine environment. Here, most organisms have developed a two-phased life-cycle, leaving the risky business of dispersing through the open ocean to their very small and intractable larval offspring. To this day, quantifying dispersal patterns in marine seascapes remains a significant challenge, and yet it is critical to the way we preserve marine ecosystems and the services they provide. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Catalano et al. (2021) present one of the first longitudinal studies to demonstrate the stochastic nature of larval dispersal. Their work challenges some of our current ideas about marine population connectivity and provides new methodological insights to study its temporal dimension.

Multigenerational exposure to warming and fishing causes recruitment collapse, but size diversity and periodic cooling can aid recovery

Global warming and fisheries harvest are significantly impacting wild fish stocks, yet their interactive influence on population resilience to stress remains unclear. We explored these interactive effects on early-life development and survival by experimentally manipulating the thermal and harvest regimes in 18 zebrafish (Danio rerio) populations over six consecutive generations. Warming advanced development rates across generations, but after three generations, it caused a sudden and large (30-50%) decline in recruitment. This warming impact was most severe in populations where size-selective harvesting reduced the average size of spawners. We then explored whether our observed recruitment decline could be explained by changes in egg size, early egg and larval survival, population sex ratio, and developmental costs. We found that it was most likely driven by temperature-induced shifts in embryonic development rate and fishing-induced male-biased sex ratios. Importantly, once harvest and warming were relaxed, recruitment rates rapidly recovered. Our study suggests that the effects of warming and fishing could have strong impacts on wild stock recruitment, but this may take several generations to manifest. However, resilience of wild populations may be higher if fishing preserves sufficient body size diversity, and windows of suitable temperature periodically occur.

A global network of marine protected areas for food

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are conservation tools that are increasingly implemented, with growing national commitments for MPA expansion. Perhaps the greatest challenge to expanded use of MPAs is the perceived trade-off between protection and food production. Since MPAs can benefit both conservation and fisheries in areas experiencing overfishing and since overfishing is common in many coastal nations, we ask how MPAs can be designed specifically to improve fisheries yields. We assembled distribution, life history, and fisheries exploitation data for 1,338 commercially important stocks to derive an optimized network of MPAs globally. We show that strategically expanding the existing global MPA network to protect an additional 5% of the ocean could increase future catch by at least 20% via spillover, generating 9 to 12 million metric tons more food annually than in a business-as-usual world with no additional protection. Our results demonstrate how food provisioning can be a central driver of MPA design, offering a pathway to strategically conserve ocean areas while securing seafood for the future.

A connectivity portfolio effect stabilizes marine reserve performance

Well-managed and enforced no-take marine reserves generate important larval subsidies to neighboring habitats and thereby contribute to the long-term sustainability of fisheries. However, larval dispersal patterns are variable, which leads to temporal fluctuations in the contribution of a single reserve to the replenishment of local populations. Identifying management strategies that mitigate the uncertainty in larval supply will help ensure the stability of recruitment dynamics and minimize the volatility in fishery catches. Here, we use genetic parentage analysis to show extreme variability in both the dispersal patterns and recruitment contribution of four individual marine reserves across six discrete recruitment cohorts for coral grouper (Plectropomus maculatus) on the Great Barrier Reef. Together, however, the asynchronous contributions from multiple reserves create temporal stability in recruitment via a connectivity portfolio effect. This dampening effect reduces the variability in larval supply from individual reserves by a factor of 1.8, which effectively halves the uncertainty in the recruitment contribution of individual reserves. Thus, not only does the network of four marine reserves generate valuable larval subsidies to neighboring habitats, the aggregate effect of individual reserves mitigates temporal fluctuations in dispersal patterns and the replenishment of local populations. Our results indicate that small networks of marine reserves yield previously unrecognized stabilizing benefits that ensure a consistent larval supply to replenish exploited fish stocks.

Exploitation may influence the climate resilience of fish populations through removing high performance metabolic phenotypes

Physiological rates and processes underpin the relationships between ectothermic organisms, such as fish, and their environment. The response and persistence of fish populations in an increasingly variable ocean is dependent on the distribution and diversity of physiological phenotypes. Growing evidence suggests that fisheries exploitation can selectively target certain physiological and behavioural phenotypes, which may shift exploited populations to altered physiological states. Here we test if commercial fisheries have the potential to do this in a “natural laboratory” along the South African coast. We compare metabolic traits of exploited and protected populations of the fish species, Chrysoblephus laticeps, which is a major component of the South African hook and line fishery. We find that high-performance aerobic scope phenotypes are reduced in the fished population. The most likely mechanism for this finding is a positive relationship between aerobic scope and capture vulnerability in passive-gear fisheries. Our results further highlight the selective nature of capture-fisheries and suggest that exploitation has the capacity to alter climate responses of fish populations on a physiological level. Our finding also implicates how Marine Protected Areas, through harbouring individuals with a greater diversity of physiological traits, may provide greater fish response diversity to environmental variability.

Successful validation of a larval dispersal model using genetic parentage data

Larval dispersal is a critically important yet enigmatic process in marine ecology, evolution, and conservation. Determining the distance and direction that tiny larvae travel in the open ocean continues to be a challenge. Our current understanding of larval dispersal patterns at management-relevant scales is principally and separately informed by genetic parentage data and biological-oceanographic (biophysical) models. Parentage datasets provide clear evidence of individual larval dispersal events, but their findings are spatially and temporally limited. Biophysical models offer a more complete picture of dispersal patterns at regional scales but are of uncertain accuracy. Here, we develop statistical techniques that integrate these two important sources of information on larval dispersal. We then apply these methods to an extensive genetic parentage dataset to successfully validate a high-resolution biophysical model for the economically important reef fish species Plectropomus maculatus in the southern Great Barrier Reef. Our results demonstrate that biophysical models can provide accurate descriptions of larval dispersal at spatial and temporal scales that are relevant to management. They also show that genetic parentage datasets provide enough statistical power to exclude poor biophysical models. Biophysical models that included species-specific larval behaviour provided markedly better fits to the parentage data than assuming passive behaviour, but incorrect behavioural assumptions led to worse predictions than ignoring behaviour altogether. Our approach capitalises on the complementary strengths of genetic parentage datasets and high-resolution biophysical models to produce an accurate picture of larval dispersal patterns at regional scales. The results provide essential empirical support for the use of accurately parameterised biophysical larval dispersal models in marine spatial planning and management.

Our understanding of marine fish larva dispersal is currently limited by sparse data and unvalidated models; combining DNA parentage matches with an oceanographic model of fish larvae on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef allows the authors to ground-truth a vital tool for sustainably managing coral reef fisheries.

Sweepstakes reproductive success is absent in a New Zealand snapper (Chrysophrus auratus) population protected from fishing despite "tiny" Ne /N ratios elsewhere

A landmark study published in 2002 estimated a very small N_e /N ratio (around 10^-5 ) in a population of pink snapper (Chrysophrys auratus, Forster, 1801) in the Hauraki Gulf in New Zealand. It epitomized the tiny N_e /N ratios (<10^-3 ) reported in marine species due to the hypothesized operation of sweepstakes reproductive success (SRS). Here we re-evaluate the occurrence of SRS in marine species and the potential effect of fishing on the N_e /N ratio by studying the same species in the same region, but in a population that has been protected from fishing since 1975. We combine empirical, simulation and model-based approaches to estimate N_e (and N_b ) from genotypes of 1,044 adult fish and estimate N using recapture-probabilities. The estimated N_e /N ratio was much larger (0.33, SE: 0.14) than expected. The magnitude of estimates of population-wide variance in individual lifetime reproductive success (10-18) suggested that the sweepstakes effect was negligible in the study population. After evaluating factors that could explain the contrast between studies - experimental design, life history differences, environmental effects and the influence of exploitation on the N_e /N ratio - we conclude that the low N_e of the Hauraki Gulf population is associated with demographic instability in the harvested compared to the protected population despite circumstantial evidence that the 2002 study may have underestimated N_e . This study has broad implications for the prevailing view that reproductive success in the sea is largely driven by chance, and for genetic monitoring of populations using the N_e /N ratio and N_b .

Clipperton Atoll as a model to study small marine populations: Endemism and the genomic consequences of small population size

Estimating population sizes and genetic diversity are key factors to understand and predict population dynamics. Marine species have been a difficult challenge in that respect, due to the difficulty in assessing population sizes and the open nature of such populations. Small, isolated islands with endemic species offer an opportunity to groundtruth population size estimates with empirical data and investigate the genetic consequences of such small populations. Here we focus on two endemic species of reef fish, the Clipperton damselfish, Stegastes baldwini, and the Clipperton angelfish, Holacanthus limbaughi, on Clipperton Atoll, tropical eastern Pacific. Visual surveys, performed over almost two decades and four expeditions, and genetic surveys based on genomic RAD sequences, allowed us to estimate kinship and genetic diversity, as well as to compare population size estimates based on visual surveys with effective population sizes based on genetics. We found that genetic and visual estimates of population numbers were remarkably similar. S. baldwini and H. limbaughi had population sizes of approximately 800,000 and 60,000, respectively. Relatively small population sizes resulted in low genetic diversity and the presence of apparent kinship. This study emphasizes the importance of small isolated islands as models to study population dynamics of marine organisms.

Temperate marine protected area provides recruitment subsidies to local fisheries

The utility of marine protected areas (MPAs) as a means of protecting exploited species and conserving biodiversity within MPA boundaries is supported by strong empirical evidence. However, the potential contribution of MPAs to fished populations beyond their boundaries is still highly controversial; empirical measures are scarce and modelling studies have produced a range of predictions, including both positive and negative effects. Using a combination of genetic parentage and relatedness analysis, we measured larval subsidies to local fisheries replenishment for Australasian snapper (Chrysophrys auratus: Sparidae) from a small (5.2 km²), well-established, temperate, coastal MPA in northern New Zealand. Adult snapper within the MPA contributed an estimated 10.6% (95% CI: 5.5-18.1%) of newly settled juveniles to surrounding areas (approx. 400 km²), with no decreasing trend in contributions up to 40 km away. Biophysical modelling of larval dispersal matched experimental data, showing larvae produced inside the MPA dispersed over a comparable distance. These results demonstrate that temperate MPAs have the potential to provide recruitment subsidies at magnitudes and spatial scales relevant to fisheries management. The validated biophysical model provides a cost-efficient opportunity to generalize these findings to other locations and climate conditions, and potentially informs the design of MPA networks for enhancing fisheries management.