Validation of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease sodium (MELD-Na) score in the Eurotransplant region

Liver Resection for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Recent Advances

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents a significant global health burden. Surgery remains a cornerstone in the curative treatment of HCC, and recent years have witnessed notable advancements aimed at refining surgical techniques and improving patient outcomes. This review presents a detailed examination of the recent innovations in HCC surgery, highlighting key developments in both surgical approaches and adjunctive therapies. Advanced imaging technologies have revolutionized preoperative assessment, enabling precise tumour localization and delineation of vascular anatomy. The use of three-dimensional rendering has significantly augmented surgical planning, facilitating more accurate and margin-free resections. The advent of laparoscopic and robotic-assisted surgical techniques has ushered in an era of minimal access surgery, offering patients the benefits of shorter hospital stays and faster recovery times, while enabling equivalent oncological outcomes. Intraoperative innovations such as intraoperative ultrasound (IOUS) and fluorescence-guided surgery have emerged as valuable adjuncts, allowing real-time assessment of tumour extent and aiding in parenchyma preservation. The integration of multimodal therapies, including neoadjuvant and adjuvant strategies, has allowed for 'bio-selection' and shown the potential to optimize patient outcomes. With the advent of augmented reality and artificial intelligence (AI), the future holds immense potential and may represent significant strides towards optimizing patient outcomes and refining the standard of care.

Effects of donors' and recipients' preoperative serum sodium on the prognosis of liver transplantation

Dysnatremia is common in donors and recipients of liver transplantation (LT). However, the influence of dysnatremia on LT prognosis remains controversial. This study aimed to investigate effects of donors' and recipients' serum sodium on LT prognosis. We retrospectively reviewed 248 recipients who underwent orthotopic LT at our center between January 2016 and December 2018. Donors and recipients perioperative and 3-year postoperative clinical data were included. Delta serum sodium was defined as the donors' serum sodium minus the paired recipients' serum sodium. Donors with serum sodium > 145 mmol/L had significantly higher preoperative blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (P < 0.01) and creatinine (Cr) (P < 0.01) than others. Preoperative total bilirubin (TBIL) (P < 0.01), direct bilirubin (DBIL) (P < 0.01), BUN (P < 0.01), Cr (P < 0.01) were significantly higher in the hyponatremia group of recipients than the other groups, but both of donors' and recipients' serum sodium had no effect on the LT prognosis. In the delta serum sodium < 0 mmol/L group, TBIL (P < 0.01) and DBIL (P < 0.01) were significantly higher in postoperative 1 week than the other groups, but delta serum sodium had no effect on the postoperative survival rates. Dysnatremia in donors and recipients of LT have no effect on postoperative survival rates, hepatic and renal function, but recipients with higher serum sodium than donors have significantly higher TBIL and DBIL at 1 week postoperatively.

Graft Steatosis and Donor Diabetes Mellitus Additively Impact on Recipient Outcomes After Liver Transplantation-A European Registry Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Biopsy-proven severe graft steatosis is associated with adverse outcomes after liver transplantation. The concomitant presence of metabolic risk factors might further increase this risk. We studied the association between graft steatosis and metabolic risk factors in the donor, with recipient outcomes after liver transplantation.

METHODS

We analyzed data from all consecutive first adult full-graft donation after brain death (DBD) liver transplantations performed in the Eurotransplant region between 2010 and 2020. The presence of graft steatosis and metabolic risk factors was assessed through a review of donor (imaging) reports, and associations with recipient retransplantation-free survival were studied through survival analyses.

RESULTS

Of 12 174 transplantations, graft steatosis was detected in 2689 (22.1%), and donor diabetes mellitus (DM), hypertension, and dyslipidemia were present in 1245 (10.2%), 5056 (41.5%), and 524 (4.3%). In multivariable Cox regression analysis, graft steatosis (adjusted HR [aHR] 1.197, p < 0.001) and donor DM (aHR 1.157, p = 0.004) were independently associated with impaired retransplantation-free survival. Graft steatosis and donor DM conferred an additive risk of retransplantation or death (DM alone, aHR: 1.156 [p = 0.0185]; steatosis alone, aHR: 1.200 [p < 0.001]; both steatosis and DM, aHR: 1.381 [p < 0.001]). Findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses focusing on retransplantation-free survival within 7 days.

CONCLUSIONS

Graft steatosis and donor diabetes mellitus additively increase the risk of retransplantation or death in adult DBD liver transplantation. Future studies should focus on methods to assess and improve the quality of these high-risk grafts. Until such time, caution should be exercised when considering these grafts for transplantation.

Construction of a novel prognostic scoring model for HBV-ACLF liver failure based on dynamic data

Early prognostic assessment of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is important for guiding clinical management and reducing mortality. The aim of this study was to dynamically monitor the clinical characteristics of HBV-ACLF patients, thereby allowing the construction of a novel prognostic scoring model to predict the outcome of HBV-ACLF patients. Clinical data was prospectively collected for 518 patients with HBV-ACLF and randomly divided into training and validation sets. We constructed day-1, day-2, and day-(1 + 3) prognostic score models based on dynamic time points. The prognostic risk score constructed for day-3 was found to have the best predictive ability. The factors included in this scoring system, referred to as DSM-ACLF-D3, were age, hepatic encephalopathy, alkaline phosphatase, total bilirubin, triglycerides, very low-density lipoprotein, blood glucose, neutrophil count, fibrin, and INR. ROC analysis revealed the area under the curve predicted by DSM-ACLF-D3 for 28-day and 90-day mortality (0.901 and 0.889, respectively) was significantly better than those of five other scoring systems: COSSH-ACLF IIs (0.882 and 0.836), COSSH-ACLFs (0.863 and 0.832), CLIF-C ACLF (0.838 and 0.766), MELD (0.782 and 0.762) and MELD-Na (0.756 and 0.731). Dynamic monitoring of the changes in clinical factors can therefore significantly improve the accuracy of scoring models. Evaluation of the probability density function and risk stratification by DSM-ACLF-D3 also resulted in the best predictive values for mortality. The novel DSM-ACLF-D3 prognostic scoring model based on dynamic data can improve early warning, prediction and clinical management of HBV-ACLF patients.

Validating new coding algorithms to improve identification of alcohol-associated and nonalcohol-associated cirrhosis hospitalizations in administrative databases

BACKGROUND

Alcohol (AC) and nonalcohol-associated cirrhosis (NAC) epidemiology studies are limited by available case definitions. We compared the diagnostic accuracy of previous and newly developed case definitions to identify AC and NAC hospitalizations.

METHODS

We randomly selected 700 hospitalizations from the 2008 to 2022 Canadian Discharge Abstract Database with alcohol-associated and cirrhosis-related International Classification of Diseases 10th revision codes. We compared standard approaches for AC (ie, AC code alone and alcohol use disorder and nonspecific cirrhosis codes together) and NAC (ie, NAC codes alone) case identification to newly developed approaches that combine standard approaches with new code combinations. Using electronic medical record review as the reference standard, we calculated case definition positive and negative predictive values, sensitivity, specificity, and AUROC.

RESULTS

Electronic medical records were available for 671 admissions; 252 had confirmed AC and 195 NAC. Compared to previous AC definitions, the newly developed algorithm selecting for the AC code, alcohol-associated hepatic failure code, or alcohol use disorder code with a decompensated cirrhosis-related condition or NAC code provided the best overall positive predictive value (91%, 95% CI: 87-95), negative predictive value (89%, CI: 86-92), sensitivity (81%, CI: 76-86), specificity (96%, CI: 93-97), and AUROC (0.88, CI: 0.85-0.91). Comparing all evaluated NAC definitions, high sensitivity (92%, CI: 87-95), specificity (82%, CI: 79-86), negative predictive value (96%, CI: 94-98), AUROC (0.87, CI: 0.84-0.90), but relatively low positive predictive value (68%, CI: 62-74) were obtained by excluding alcohol use disorder codes and using either a NAC code in any diagnostic position or a primary diagnostic code for HCC, unspecified/chronic hepatic failure, esophageal varices without bleeding, or hepatorenal syndrome.

CONCLUSIONS

New case definitions show enhanced accuracy for identifying hospitalizations for AC and NAC compared to previously used approaches.

Clinical Profile and Outcome of Patients Presenting With Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: A Single-Center Experience

BACKGROUND AND AIM

We aimed to study the etiologies and clinical profile and to describe the factors associated with mortality in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients at our center.

METHODS

Patients meeting the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) definition of ACLF were included. We studied etiologies and clinical profile and analyzed the factors associated with mortality in patients with ACLF. We also analyzed the mortality rates based on the number of organ failures and the grade of ACLF.

RESULTS

114 patients were included. Alcohol (82, 71.9%), drugs (22, 19.3%), and viral hepatitis (17, 14.9%) were the commonest precipitating factors of ACLF. The commonest cause of chronic disease was alcohol (83, 72.8%). Fifty-three (46.5%), 60 (52.6%), 44 (38.6%), 32 (28.1%), and 24 (21.1%) experienced renal, coagulation, cerebral, respiratory, and circulation failures, respectively. Overall, the in-hospital mortality rate stood at 54 (48.6%), with a median stay of eight days. Advanced hepatic encephalopathy and ventilator support independently predicted mortality. The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score outperformed all other prognostic scores in predicting mortality in ACLF.

CONCLUSION

Alcohol was the most common precipitating factor for ACLF. The in-hospital mortality rate was 48.6%. Advanced hepatic encephalopathy and ventilator support independently predicted mortality. The SOFA score is a more accurate predictor of mortality in ACLF when compared to other prognostic scores.

Comparison of lactate/albumin ratio and established scoring systems for predicting mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND

Critically ill cirrhotic patients may present a serious clinical condition defined as acute-on-chronic liver failure with high mortality. While established scoring systems like Child-Pugh and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) offer prognostic insights, their limitations warrant exploration of alternative markers. The lactate/albumin ratio (LAR) serves as a potential prognostic indicator in critical care settings, yet its utility in cirrhotic patients remains underexplored.

METHODS

We assessed 175 critically ill cirrhotic patients in this retrospective cohort study. Clinical severity scores, including Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), and chronic liver failure-organ failure score (CLIF-OF), were compared with LAR along with traditional liver failure scoring systems. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis were used to evaluate prognostic performance.

RESULTS

Intensive care unit (ICU) nonsurvivors had significantly higher scores in all liver failure and clinical severity scores compared to survivors (p<0.001). Median LAR was significantly higher in nonsurvivors (p<0.001). ROC analysis revealed comparable prognostic accuracy between LAR, APACHE II, SOFA, and CLIF-OF scores in predicting ICU mortality. Logistic regression identified SOFA score at 48th hours, LAR, and requirement of mechanical ventilation as independent predictors of ICU mortality.

CONCLUSION

LAR demonstrates promising prognostic utility in predicting ICU mortality among critically ill cirrhotic patients, complementing established scoring systems. Early reassessment using SOFA score at 48th hours may guide therapeutic interventions and improve patient outcomes. Further prospective studies are warranted to validate these findings and optimize clinical management strategies.

Women Are Also Disadvantaged in Accessing Transplant Outside the United States: Analysis of the Spanish Liver Transplantation Registry

Sex inequities in liver transplantation (LT) have been documented in several, mostly US-based, studies. Our aim was to describe sex-related differences in access to LT in a system with short waiting times. All adult patients registered in the RETH-Spanish Liver Transplant Registry (2000-2022) for LT were included. Baseline demographics, presence of hepatocellular carcinoma, cause and severity of liver disease, time on the waiting list (WL), access to transplantation, and reasons for removal from the WL were assessed. 14,385 patients were analysed (77% men, 56.2 ± 8.7 years). Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score was reported for 5,475 patients (mean value: 16.6 ± 5.7). Women were less likely to receive a transplant than men (OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.63, 0.97) with a trend to a higher risk of exclusion for deterioration (HR 1.17, 95% CI 0.99, 1.38), despite similar disease severity. Women waited longer on the WL (198.6 ± 338.9 vs. 173.3 ± 285.5 days, p < 0.001). Recently, women's risk of dropout has reduced, concomitantly with shorter WL times. Even in countries with short waiting times, women are disadvantaged in LT. Policies directed at optimizing the whole LT network should be encouraged to guarantee a fair and equal access of all patients to this life saving resource.

Objective Tumor Response of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Obtained by Transarterial Radioembolization with Iodine-131-Lipiodol Versus Transarterial Chemoembolization for Patients with and without Portal Venous Thrombosis: A Controlled Interventional Trial

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treatment often requires transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). However, TACE efficacy is controversial in the presence of portal vein thrombosis (PVT). Although transarterial radioembolization (TARE) benefit was previously documented in PVT, neither the objective tumor response (OTR) after TARE with Iodine-131-lipiodol (131I-lipiodol) nor the PVT effect on the results of locoregional therapies was accurately measured in prospective clinical trials. The aim of this study was to compare OTR and survival obtained by TARE with 131I-lipiodol versus TACE in patients with cirrhosis and HCC, as well as between those with and without PVT.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

33 patients were included, from whom 38 tumors were assessed. OTR was quantified by a special algorithm to measure hypervascular HCC tissue.

RESULTS

19 tumors received each therapy. Nine subjects (27%) had PVT, most of them in the TARE group (p = 0.026). Mean OTR according to the tumor volumes was 24.2% ± 56% after TARE and 32.8% ± 48.9% after TACE, with no difference between the treatments (p = 0.616). Similar values were also observed between those with and without PVT (p = 0.704). Mean survival was 340 days and did not differ between the two treatments (p = 0.596), but was 194 days in PVT cases (p = 0.007).

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study in which OTR obtained by TARE with 131I-lipiodol is accurately measured. Additionally, PVT impact on survival after TARE and TACE was precisely documented. Although the TARE group had more PVT subjects (who had shorter survival), TARE and TACE achieved similar OTR and OS rates.

Managing cirrhosis with limited resources: perspectives from sub-Saharan Africa

Cirrhosis represents the end stage of chronic liver disease. Sub-Saharan Africa, a resource-constrained region, has a high burden of chronic liver disease, with causes including chronic viral hepatitis, excessive alcohol use, and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), the risk of which is burgeoning. The development of liver cirrhosis predicts for morbidity and mortality, driven by both liver dysfunction and the consequences of portal hypertension. Compensated cirrhosis portends a better prognosis than decompensated cirrhosis, highlighting the need for the early diagnosis of cirrhosis and its causes. With resource challenges, the diagnosis and management of cirrhosis is demanding, but less costly and less invasive interventions with substantial benefits, ranging from simple blood tests to transient elastography, are feasible in such settings. Simple interventions are also available to manage the complex manifestations of decompensation, such as β blockers in variceal bleeding prophylaxis, salt restriction and appropriate diuretic use in ascites, and lactulose and generic rifaximin in hepatic encephalopathy. Ultimately, managing the underlying causative factors of liver disease is key in improving prognosis. Management demands expanded policy interventions to increase screening and treatment for hepatitis B and C and reduce alcohol use and the metabolic factors driving MASLD. Furthermore, the skills needed for more specialised interventions, such as transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt procedures and even liver transplantation, warrant planning, increased capacity, and support for regional centres of excellence. Such centres are already being developed in sub-Saharan Africa, demonstrating what can be achieved with dedicated initiatives and individuals.

An Overview of Liver Transplantation: Current Status, Recent Techniques, and Challenges-Perspectives From a Center in China

Liver transplantation is the best way to treat end-stage liver disease.With benefits from enhanced techniques, refined management, and advanced medications, liver transplant boasts a commendable 5-year survival rate for recipients. Nevertheless, acquiring the perioperative management and surgical skills essential for liver transplant is a time-consuming process for new surgeons. In addition, COVID-19 has also affected the field. Based on our actual situation in China, we have provided an overview of donor evaluation,recipient selection,transplant procedures, postoperative complications and management, longterm management, and pandemic strategies to guide new clinical surgeons in the field.

Trajectories of patients relisted for liver transplantation

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Recurrent cirrhosis complicates 10-30% of Liver transplants (LT) and can lead to consideration for re-transplantation. We evaluated the trajectories of relisted versus primary listed patients on the waitlist using a competing risk framework.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively examined 1,912 patients listed for LT at our centre between from 2012 to 2020. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess overall survival (OS) by listing type and competing risk analysis Fine-Gray models were used to assess cumulative incidence of transplant by listing type.

RESULTS

1,731 patients were included (104 relisted). 44.2% of relisted patients received exception points vs. 19.8% of primary listed patients (p<0.001). Patients relisted without exceptions, representing those with graft cirrhosis, had the worst OS (HR: 4.17, 95%CI 2.63 - 6.67, p=<0.0001) and lowest instantaneous rate of transplant (HR: 0.56, 95%CI 0.38 - 0.83, p=0.006) than primary listed with exception points. On multivariate analysis listing type, height, bilirubin and INR were associated with cumulative incidence of transplant, while listing type, bilirubin, INR, sodium, creatinine were associated with OS. Within relisted patients, there was a trend towards higher mortality (HR: 1.79, 95%CI 0.91 - 3.52, p=0.08) and low transplant incidence (HR: 0.51, 95%CI 0.22 - 1.15, p=0.07) for graft cirrhosis vs other relisting indications.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients relisted for LT are carefully curated and comprise a minority of the waitlist population. Despite their younger age, they have worse liver/kidney function, poor waitlist survival, and decreased transplant incidence suggesting the need for early relisting, while considering standardized exception points.

Survival benefit from liver transplantation for patients with and without hepatocellular carcinoma

Background & Aims

In the USA, inequal liver transplantation (LT) access exists between patients with and without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Survival benefit considers survival without and with LT and could equalise LT access. We calculated bias-corrected LT survival benefit for patients with(out) HCC who underwent a transplant, based on longitudinal data in a recent United States cohort.

Methods

Adult LT candidates with(out) HCC between 2010 and 2019 were included. Waitlist survival over time was contrasted to post-transplant survival, to estimate 5-year survival benefit from the moment of LT. Waitlist survival was modelled with a bias-corrected Cox regression, and post-transplant survival was estimated through Cox proportional hazards regression.

Results

Mean HCC survival without LT was always lower than non-HCC waitlist survival. Below model for end-stage liver disease (sodium) (MELD(-Na)) 30, patients with HCC gained more life-years from LT than patients without HCC at the same MELD(-Na) score. Only patients without HCC below MELD(-Na) 9 had negative benefit. Most patients with HCC underwent a transplant below MELD(-Na) 14, and most patients without HCC underwent a transplant above MELD(-Na) 26. Liver function [MELD(-Na), albumin] was the main predictor of 5-year benefit. Therefore, during 5 years, most patients with HCC gained 0.12 to 1.96 years from LT, whereas most patients without HCC gained 2.48 to 3.45 years.

Conclusions

On an individual level, performing a transplant in patients with HCC resulted in survival benefit. However, on a population level, benefit was indirectly decreased, as patients without HCC were likely to gain more survival owing to decreased liver function. For patients who underwent a transplant, a constructed online calculator estimates 5-year survival benefit given specific patient characteristics. Survival benefit scores could serve to equalise LT access.

Impact and implications

Benefit is a comparison of the survival with and without liver transplantation, and it is important when deciding who should undergo a transplant. Liver function is most important when predicting possible benefit from transplantation. Patients with liver cancer die sooner on the waiting list than similar patients without liver cancer. However, patients with liver cancer more often have better liver function. Most patients without liver cancer derive more benefit from transplantation than patients with liver cancer.

Prognostic models in end stage liver disease

Cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide, and is associated with significant health care costs. Even if milestones have been recently reached in understanding and managing end-stage liver disease (ESLD), the disease course remains somewhat difficult to prognosticate. These difficulties have already been acknowledged already in the past, when scores instead of single parameters have been proposed as valuable tools for short-term prognosis. These standard scores, like Child Turcotte Pugh (CTP) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, relying on biochemical and clinical parameters, are still widely used in clinical practice to predict short- and medium-term prognosis. The MELD score, which remains an accurate, easy-to-use, objective predictive score, has received significant modifications over time, in order to improve its performance especially in the liver transplant (LT) setting, where it is widely used as prioritization tool. Although many attempts to improve prognostic accuracy have failed because of lack of replicability or poor benefit with the comparator (often the MELD score or its variants), few scores have been recently proposed and validated especially for subgroups of patients with ESLD, as those with acute-on-chronic liver failure. Artificial intelligence will probably help hepatologists in the near future to fill the current gaps in predicting disease course and long-term prognosis of such patients.

Elevated Liver Fibrosis Progression in Isolated PSC Patients and Increased Malignancy Risk in a PSC-IBD Cohort: A Retrospective Study

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease often associated with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), particularly ulcerative colitis (CU), and rarely with Crohn's disease (CD). Various long-term analyses show different rates of cancer and the need for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) in patients with isolated PSC and with concomitant IBD, respectively. However, data on the detailed course of PSC with or without IBD are limited. We aimed to analyze the clinical disease course of PSC patients without IBD compared to PSC patients with UC and CD, respectively. A retrospective data analysis of patients with isolated PSC (n = 41) and of patients with concomitant IBD (n = 115) was performed. In detail, PSC disease characteristics including occurrence of dominant stenoses, liver cirrhosis, OLT and malignancy, as well as the temporal course of PSC activity and disease progression, were analyzed. A multivariable Cox regression model and a Fine-Gray competing risk model were further used for the independent risk factor analysis of cirrhosis development and OLT. Patients with isolated PSC were significantly older at first diagnosis than patients with PSC-IBD (39 vs. 28 years, p = 0.02). A detailed analysis of the course of PSC revealed a faster PSC progression after initial diagnosis in isolated PSC patients compared to PSC-IBD including significantly earlier diagnosis of dominant stenoses (29 vs. 74 months, p = 0.021) and faster progression to liver cirrhosis (38 vs. 103 months, p = 0.027). Patients with isolated PSC have a higher risk of developing cirrhosis than patients with PSC-IBD (Gray's test p = 0.03). OLT was more frequently performed in male patients with isolated PSC compared to males with coincident IBD (48% (n = 13) vs. 33% (n = 25), p = 0.003). Colorectal carcinoma was significantly more often diagnosed in patients with PSC-IBD than in isolated PSC (8.7% vs. 0%, p = 0.042). Patients with isolated PSC seem to have a different clinical course of disease than PSC patients with concomitant IBD characterized by a more pro-fibrotic disease course with earlier onset of liver cirrhosis and dominant stenosis but with less malignancy. These data may be interpreted as either a more progressive disease course of isolated PSC or a later diagnosis of the disease at an advanced disease stage. The different clinical courses of PSC and the underlying mechanisms of the gut-liver axis need further attention.

Predicted Impact of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease 3.0 in a Region Suffering Severe Organ Shortage

BACKGROUND

The model for end-stage liver disease 3.0 (MELD3.0) is expected to address the flaws of the current allocation system for deceased donor liver transplantation (DDLT). We aimed to validate MELD3.0 in the Korean population where living donor liver transplantation is predominant due to organ shortages.

METHODS

Korean large-volume single-centric waitlist data were merged with the Korean Network for Organ Sharing (KONOS) data. The 90-day mortality was compared between MELD and MELD3.0 using the C-index in 2,353 eligible patients registered for liver transplantation. Patient numbers and outcomes were compared based on changes in KONOS-MELD categorization using MELD3.0. Possible gains in MELD points and reduced waitlist mortality were analyzed.

RESULTS

MELD3.0 performed better than MELD (C-index 0.893 for MELD3.0 vs. 0.889 for MELD). When stratified according to the KONOS-MELD categories, 15.9% of the total patients and 35.2% of the deceased patients were up-categorized using MELD3.0 versus MELD categories. The mean gain of MELD points was higher in women (2.6 ± 2.1) than men (2.1 ± 1.9, P < 0.001), and higher in patients with severe ascites (3.3 ± 1.8) than in controls (1.9 ± 1.8, P < 0.001); however, this trend was not significant when the MELD score was higher than 30. When the possible increase in DDLT chance was calculated via up-categorizing using MELD3.0, reducible waitlist mortality was 2.7%.

CONCLUSION

MELD3.0 could predict better waitlist mortality than MELD; however, the merit for women and patients with severe ascites is uncertain, and reduced waitlist mortality from implementing MELD3.0 is limited in regions suffering from organ shortage, as in Korea.

Revising the MELD Score to Address Sex-Bias in Liver Transplant Prioritization for a German Cohort

(1) Background: Prioritization of patients for liver transplantation in Germany relies on the MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) scoring system that does not consider the patient's sex. Many studies have shown that women are disadvantaged by the MELD score. Using a large patient cohort from a German liver transplant centre, we investigated options to reduce gender inequality in the patient prioritization for liver transplantation. (2) Methods: We calculated female-as-male MELD scores in our cohort by substituting the serum creatinine of a female patient with that of their male equivalent to test for the fairness of the scores. We investigated the effects of the female-as-male scores compared to the original MELD score of 1759 patients listed for liver transplantation. (3) Results: Serum creatinine sex correction (female-as-male) for MELD scores added up to 5.4 points in females, while the median changed by +1.6 points for females. We identified 72 females with an original MELD score < 20, for whom the adjusted female-as-male MELD score would be >20, thus giving them a better chance to receive a liver transplant. (4) Conclusions: Mathematical conversion of female to male creatinine concentrations identified disadvantages in liver transplantation prioritization for females and ascertained MELD 3.0 as having high potential to compensate for these inequalities.

Determining Prognosis of ALD and Alcohol-associated Hepatitis

Alcohol-associated hepatitis has a poor prognosis in terms of short-term mortality and often presents with symptoms, such as jaundice, acute renal failure, and ascites. There are many prognostic models that have been developed to predict short-term and long-term mortality in these patients. Current prognostic models can be divided into static scores, which are measured at admission, and dynamic models, which measure baseline and after a certain amount of time. The efficacy of these models in predicting short-term mortality is disputed. Numerous studies across the world have compared prognostic models, such as the Maddrey's discriminant function, the model for end-stage liver disease score, model for end-stage liver disease score-Na, Glasgow alcohol-associated hepatitis score, and the age-bilirubin-international normalized ratio-creatinine (ABIC) score, to each other to determine which score is more useful for a particular context. There are also prognostic markers such as liver biopsy, breath biomarkers, and acute kidney injury that are able to predict mortality. The accuracy of these scores is a key to determining when treatment with corticosteroids is futile since there is an increased risk of infection in those treated with it. Furthermore, although these scores are helpful in predicting short-term mortality, the only factor that is able to predict long-term mortality in patients with alcohol-related liver disease is abstinence. Numerous studies have proven that even though corticosteroids provide a treatment for alcohol-associated hepatitis, it is a temporary one, at best. The purpose of this paper is to compare the historical models to current ones in their ability to predict mortality in patients with alcohol-related liver disease by analyzing multiple studies that have examined these prognostic markers. This paper also isolates the knowledge gaps in the ability to delineate which patients would benefit from corticosteroids and patients who would not and provides potential models for the future that could narrow this gap.

The Usefulness of Mayo End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and MELD-Sodium (MELD-Na) Scores for Predicting Mortality in Cirrhotic Patients With Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis

BACKGROUND

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a common infection in patients with cirrhosis and ascites. Currently, the accuracy of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and MELD-sodium (MELD-Na) as prognostic scores in this cohort is unclear. This study aimed to evaluate and compare the accuracy of MELD and MELD-Na for predicting 90-day mortality and determine whether the mortality risk estimates they provide accurately reflect the poor prognosis of patients with SBP Methods: Patients with cirrhosis and SBP were retrospectively identified from ascitic fluid samples sent for microscopy, culture and sensitivity analysis (1/1/18-31/12/20) and a previous audit. MELD and MELD-Na scores at diagnosis were calculated and associations with 90-day mortality were assessed using univariate analysis. Receiver operator characteristic curves were compared, and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated by comparing the number of deaths observed to the number predicted by MELD and MELD-Na.

RESULTS

Of the 567 patients identified, 15 patients with cirrhosis and SBP were included. The 90-day mortality rate was 66.7% (10/15). Only concurrent hyponatremia (<135mmol/L) was associated with mortality (6/10 non-survivors vs 0/5 survivors, p=0.04). The difference in MELD and MELD-Na's C-statistic was not significant: 0.66 (95% Cl:0.35-0.98) vs 0.74 (95% Cl:0.47-1.0) respectively (p=0.72). Patients with a MELD-Na >18.5 had significantly higher 90-day mortality than patients with MELD-Na ≤18.5 (88.9% (8/9) vs. 33.3% (2/6), p=0.05). The SMR (95% Cl) for each MELD decile evaluated was 33.3 (0-79.5), 11.1 (0.2-22.0) and 3.4 (0-7.0) for scores ≤9,10-19 and 20-29 respectively. For each MELD-Na tertile, these were: 25 (0-59.6), 5.2 (0.1-10.3) and 2.7 (0.1-8.1) for scores <17,17-26, ≥27 respectively.

CONCLUSION

In a small cohort of patients with cirrhosis and SBP, the MELD's accuracy in predicting 90-day mortality was limited. MELD-Na's accuracy was higher but not significantly. Both scores consistently underestimated participants' mortality, therefore future studies could evaluate the accuracy of alternative prognostic scores in this patient group.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure: clinical course and liver transplantation

INTRODUCTION

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinical syndrome characterized by intense systemic inflammatory response, multiple-organ failures, and high short-term mortality in patients with chronic liver disease. ACLF is dynamic and heterogeneous, and the prognosis is closely related to the clinical course. Currently, liver transplantation (LT) remains the only potential curative treatment that improves survival of ACLF patients.

AREAS COVERED

In this review, we summarize the dynamic clinical course of ACLF and the relationship between the clinical course and the post-LT prognosis, especially the factors affecting the mortality after LT in severe ACLF patients and explore the optimal choice of LT therapy for ACLF patients, both to benefit patients the most and to avoid futile therapy.

EXPERT OPINION

ACLF is a dynamic disease with varying clinical phenotypes, and the global burden is high. Early identification of the clinical course is important to assess the prognosis and guide the treatment. The contradiction between shortage of liver donors and the large number of recipients makes it necessary for us to strictly screen out the recipients and identify patients who really need LT to save liver sources.

MELD-GRAIL and MELD-GRAIL-Na Are Not Superior to MELD or MELD-Na in Predicting Liver Transplant Waiting List Mortality at a Single-center Level

Controversy exists regarding the best predictive model of liver transplant waiting list (WL) mortality. Models for end-stage liver disease–glomerular filtration rate assessment in liver disease (MELD-GRAIL) and MELD-GRAIL-Na were recently described to provide better prognostication, particularly in females. We evaluated the performance of these scores compared to MELD and MELD-Na.

Prognostic Value of Serum Albumin Level in Critically Ill Patients: Observational Data From Large Intensive Care Unit Databases

Background

Decreased serum albumin level (SAL) is associated with adverse clinical outcomes. We designed the present study to further assess the prognostic value of SAL in critically ill patients based on data from large intensive care unit (ICU) databases.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study recruited 18,353 patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database. Restricted cubic splines (RCS) were performed to visualize the association of SAL at admission with ICU and hospital mortalities. The prognostic value of SAL was analyzed using logistic regression models and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in overall patients and subgroups.

Results

Restricted cubic splines revealed rapid increasing risks in ICU and hospital mortalities when SAL declined to below 30 g/l. Patients with SAL <30 g/l (n = 6,069) had higher ICU (13.7% vs. 6.4%, p < 0.001) and hospital (23.9% vs. 10.7%, p < 0.001) mortalities than those with SAL ≥30 g/l. Multivariable logistic regression model revealed that SAL <30 g/l independently correlated with higher risks of both ICU (odds ratio [OR]: 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07–1.36) and hospital (OR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.37–1.66) mortalities. However, the association diminished in patients with cirrhosis (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 0.91–1.49 for ICU mortality; OR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.00–1.48 for hospital mortality). ROC curves revealed a poor performance of SAL in predicting mortalities, both in overall patients and in those with cirrhosis.

Conclusions

Decreased SAL is associated with increased risk of mortality. However, it possesses low sensitivity and specificity for outcome prediction in critically ill patients, especially in those with cirrhosis.

Prognostic Nomograms for Hospital Survival and Transplant-Free Survival of Patients with Hepatorenal Syndrome: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is a life-threatening complication of cirrhosis with a poor prognosis. To develop novel and effective nomograms which could numerically predict both the hospital survival and transplant-free survival of HRS, we retrospectively enrolled a cohort of 149 patients. A backward stepwise method based on the smallest Akaike information criterion value was applied to select the covariates to be included in the Cox proportional hazards models. The Harrell C-index, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Brier score, and Kaplan–Meier curves with the log-rank test were used to assess nomograms. The bootstrapping method with 1000 resamples was performed for internal validation. The nomogram predicting hospital survival included prothrombin activity, HRS clinical pattern, Child–Pugh class, and baseline serum creatinine. The C-index was 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.65–0.78), and the adjusted C-index was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.66–0.79). The nomogram predicting transplant-free survival included sex, prothrombin activity, HRS clinical pattern, model for end-stage liver disease–Na score, and peak serum creatinine. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69–0.79), and the adjusted C-index was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.68–0.79). The AUC and Brier score at 15, 30, and 45 days calculated from the hospital survival nomogram and those at 6, 12, and 18 months calculated from the transplant-free survival nomogram revealed good predictive ability. The two models can be used to identify patients at high risk of HRS and promote early intervention treatment.

Establishment of MELD-lactate clearance scoring system in predicting death risk of critically ill cirrhotic patients

Background

To develop a scoring system related to the lactate clearance (ΔLA) to predict the mortality risk (MELD-ΔLA) for critically ill cirrhotic patients.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, 881 critically ill cirrhotic patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database were included eventually. The outcomes of our study were defined as ICU death, 28-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality. Predictors were identified by multivariate Cox analysis to develop the predictive scoring system. The C-index and area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) were used to identify the predicting performance of the MELD-ΔLA, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA), the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), Child–Pugh, chronic liver failure consortium acute-on-chronic liver failure (CLIF-C ACLF), chronic liver failure consortium-acute decompensation (CLIF-C AD) and MELD-Na scoring systems. Additionally, subgroup analysis was also performed based on whether critically ill cirrhotic patients underwent liver transplantation.

Results

Creatinine, bilirubin, international normalized ratio (INR), lactate first, ΔLA and vasopressors were closely associated with ICU death of liver critically ill cirrhotic patients. The C-index of the MELD-ΔLA in ICU death was 0.768 (95% CI 0.736–0.799) and the AUC for the MELD-ΔLA scoring system in predicting 28-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality were 0.774 (95% CI 0.743–0.804), 0.765 (95% CI 0.735–0.796), and 0.757 (95% CI 0.726–0.788), suggested that MELD-ΔLA scoring system has a good predictive value than SOFA, CLIF-SOFA, MELD, Child–Pugh, CLIF-C ACLF, CLIF-C AD) and MELD-Na scoring systems. Additionally, the study also confirmed the good predictive value of MELD-ΔLA scoring system for critically ill cirrhotic patients regardless of undergoing liver transplantation.

Conclusion

The developed MELD-ΔLA score is a simple scoring system in predicting the risk of ICU death, 28-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality for critically ill cirrhotic patients, which may have a good predictive performance.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-022-02351-5.

Are MELD and MELDNa Still Reliable Tools to Predict Mortality on the Liver Transplant Waiting List?

Liver transplantation is the only curative treatment for end-stage liver disease. Unfortunately, the scarcity of donor organs and the increasing pool of potential recipients limit access to this life-saving procedure. Allocation should account for medical and ethical factors, ensuring equal access to transplantation regardless of recipient's gender, race, religion, or income. Based on their short-term prognosis prediction, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and MELD sodium (MELDNa) have been widely used to prioritize patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation resulting in a significant decrease in waiting list mortality/removal. Recent concern has been raised regarding the prognostic accuracy of MELD and MELDNa due, in part, to changes in recipients' profile such as body mass index, comorbidities, and general condition, including nutritional status and cause of liver disease, among others. This review aims to provide a comprehensive view of the current state of MELD and MELDNa advantages and limitations and promising alternatives. Finally, it will explore future options to increase the donor pool and improve donor-recipient matching.

MELD-Na Score as a Predictor of Postoperative Complications in Ventral Skull Base Surgery

Background: The Model for End-stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) Score was designed for prognosis of chronic liver disease and has been predictive of outcomes in a variety of procedures. Few studies have investigated its utility in Otolaryngology. This study uses the MELD-Na score to investigate the association between liver health and ventral skull base surgical complications. Methods: The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was used to identify patients who underwent ventral skull base procedures between 2005 and 2015. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to investigate the association between elevated MELD-Na score and postoperative complications. Results: 1077 patients undergoing ventral skull base surgery with lab values required to calculate the MELD-Na score were identified. The mean age was 54.2 years. The mean MELD-Na score was 7.70 (SD=2.04). Univariate analysis showed that elevated MELD-Na score was significantly associated with increased age (58.6 vs. 53.8 years) and male gender (70.8% vs. 46.1%). Elevated MELD-Na score was associated with increased rates of postoperative acute renal failure, transfusion, septic shock, surgical complications, and extended length of hospital stay. On multivariate analysis, associations between elevated MELD-Na and increased risk of perioperative transfusions (OR 1.62, 95%CI 1.20-2.93, p=0.007) and surgical complications (OR 1.58, 95%CI 1.25-2.35, p=0.009) remained significant. Conclusions: This analysis points to an association between liver health and postoperative complications in ventral skull base surgery. Future research investigating this association is warranted.

Development and validation of a dynamic survival prediction model for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background & Aims

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is usually associated with a precipitating event and results in the failure of other organ systems and high short-term mortality. Current prediction models fail to adequately estimate prognosis and need for liver transplantation (LT) in ACLF. This study develops and validates a dynamic prediction model for patients with ACLF that uses both longitudinal and survival data.

Methods

Adult patients on the UNOS waitlist for LT between 11.01.2016-31.12.2019 were included. Repeated model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) measurements were jointly modelled with Cox survival analysis to develop the ACLF joint model (ACLF-JM). Model validation was carried out using separate testing data with area under curve (AUC) and prediction errors. An online ACLF-JM tool was created for clinical application.

Results

In total, 30,533 patients were included. ACLF grade 1 to 3 was present in 16.4%, 10.4% and 6.2% of patients, respectively. The ACLF-JM predicted survival significantly (p <0.001) better than the MELD-Na score, both at baseline and during follow-up. For 28- and 90-day predictions, ACLF-JM AUCs ranged between 0.840-0.871 and 0.833-875, respectively. Compared to MELD-Na, AUCs and prediction errors were improved by 23.1%-62.0% and 5%-37.6% respectively. Also, the ACLF-JM could have prioritized patients with relatively low MELD-Na scores but with a 4-fold higher rate of waiting list mortality.

Conclusions

The ACLF-JM dynamically predicts outcome based on current and past disease severity. Prediction performance is excellent over time, even in patients with ACLF-3. Therefore, the ACLF-JM could be used as a clinical tool in the evaluation of prognosis and treatment in patients with ACLF.

Lay summary

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) progresses rapidly and often leads to death. Liver transplantation is used as a treatment and the sickest patients are treated first. In this study, we develop a model that predicts survival in ACLF and we show that the newly developed model performs better than the currently used model for ranking patients on the liver transplant waiting list.

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ACLF is a dynamic disease that can rapidly change over time, which greatly influences patient survival without LT.

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Currently, the MELD-Na score is used to prioritize patients for LT, but MELD-Na underestimates ACLF disease severity.

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The ACLF joint model (ACLF-JM) was developed to dynamically predict survival.

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The ACLF-JM significantly outperformed the MELD-Na score for the prediction of mortality on the LT waiting list.

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The ACLF-JM can be used online to predict survival in individual patients.

The Addition of C-Reactive Protein and von Willebrand Factor to Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium Improves Prediction of Waitlist Mortality

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis on the liver transplant (LT) waiting list may die or be removed because of complications of portal hypertension (PH) or infections. von Willebrand factor antigen (vWF-Ag) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are simple, broadly available markers of these processes.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We determined whether addition of vWF-Ag and CRP to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) score improves risk stratification of patients awaiting LT. CRP and vWF-Ag at LT listing were assessed in two independent cohorts (Medical University of Vienna [exploration cohort] and Mayo Clinic Rochester [validation cohort]). Clinical characteristics, MELD-Na, and mortality on the waiting list were recorded. Prediction of 3-month waiting list mortality was assessed by receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC-AUC). In order to explore potential mechanisms underlying the prognostic utility of vWF-Ag and CRP in this setting, we evaluated their association with PH, bacterial translocation, systemic inflammation, and circulatory dysfunction. In the exploration cohort (n = 269) vWF-Ag and CRP both improved the predictive value of MELD-Na for 3-month waitlist mortality and showed the highest predictive value when combined (AUC: MELD-Na, 0.764; MELD-Na + CRP, 0.790; MELD-Na + vWF, 0.803; MELD-Na + CRP + vWF-Ag, 0.824). Results were confirmed in an independent validation cohort (n = 129; AUC: MELD-Na, 0.677; MELD-Na + CRP + vWF-Ag, 0.882). vWF-Ag was independently associated with PH and inflammatory biomarkers, whereas CRP closely, and MELD independently, correlated with biomarkers of bacterial translocation/inflammation.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of vWF-Ag and CRP-reflecting central pathophysiological mechanisms of PH, bacterial translocation, and inflammation, that are all drivers of mortality on the waiting list for LT-to the MELD-Na score improves prediction of waitlist mortality. Using the vWFAg-CRP-MELD-Na model for prioritizing organ allocation may improve prediction of waitlist mortality and decrease waitlist mortality.

Evolution of liver transplant organ allocation policy: Current limitations and future directions

Since the adoption of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score for organ allocation in 2002, numerous changes to the system of liver allocation and distribution have been made with the goal of decreasing waitlist mortality and minimizing geographic variability in median MELD score at time of transplant without worsening post-transplant outcomes. These changes include the creation and adoption of the MELD-Na score for allocation, Regional Share 15, Regional Share for Status 1, Regional Share 35/National Share 15, and, most recently, the Acuity Circles Distribution Model. However, geographic differences in median MELD at time of transplant remain as well as limits to the MELD score for allocation, as etiology of liver disease and need for transplant changes. Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a subset of liver failure where prevalence is rising and has been shown to have an increased mortality rate and need for transplantation that is under-demonstrated by the MELD score. This underscores the limitations of the MELD score and raises the question of whether MELD is the most accurate, objective allocation system. Alternatives to the MELD score have been proposed and studied, however MELD score remains as the current system used for allocation. This review highlights policy changes since the adoption of the MELD score, addresses limitations of the MELD score, reviews proposed alternatives to MELD, and examines the specific implications of these changes and alternatives for ACLF.

[Surgery in patients with liver cirrhosis]

Hintergrund und Ziel der Arbeit

Patienten mit einer Leberzirrhose, die eine operative Behandlung benötigen, weisen eine hohe Krankenhausmortalität auf. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht die postoperative Morbidität sowie Krankenhausmortalität nach stattgehabter Operation von Patienten mit einer Leberzirrhose.

Material und Methode

Retrospektiv wurden im Zeitraum von 01/2010 bis 12/2017 321 Patienten mit einer Leberzirrhose in unserer Klinik operativ behandelt. Erfasst wurden leberspezifische Scoringsysteme wie MELD(Model of End Stage Liver Disease)- und Child-Pugh-Score (CPS), die Krankenhausletalität und die postoperative Morbidität wurden mittels der Dindo-Clavien-Klassifikation erhoben.

Ergebnisse

Von den 321 Patienten (68 % männlich) wurden 21,2 % als Notfall versorgt. Die Letalität der Notfallpatienten war mit 60 % signifikant höher als die der elektiv operierten Patienten (12 %, p < 0,0001). Komplexe Eingriffe zeigen insgesamt eine Letalität von 41 %, kleinere Eingriffe immer noch 20,5 % (p = 0,0001). Die postoperativen Komplikationsrate und Mortalität zeigten sich nach CPS signifikant unterschiedlich bei 11,8 % bzw. 6,3 % in der CPS-A-Kategorie im Vergleich zu 84 % bzw. 73 % in der CPS-C-Kategorie (p = 0,001). Statistisch steigt die Krankenhausletalität um etwa 20 % mit jedem MELD-Anstieg um einen Punkt (OR 1,23, p = 0,0001). Am schwerwiegendsten ist das Vorliegen einer hepatischen Dekompensation.

Diskussion

Operative Eingriffe von Patienten mit Leberzirrhose sind mit einer hohen Komplikationsrate und Krankenhausletalität verbunden. CPS und MELD können bei der objektiven Risikoeinschätzung helfen, während auch die klinische Untersuchung auf Zeichen einer hepatischen Dekompensation von Bedeutung ist. Natrium, Kreatinin und andere Laborwerte können diese Einschätzung ergänzen.

Refitting the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease for the Eurotransplant Region

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The United Network for Organ Sharing's Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (UNOS-MELD) score is the basis of liver allocation in the Eurotransplant region. It was constructed 20 years ago in a small US cohort and has remained unchanged ever since. The best boundaries and coefficients were never calculated for any region outside the United States. Therefore, this study refits the MELD (reMELD) for the Eurotransplant region.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

All adult patients listed for a first liver transplantation between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2018, were included. Data were randomly split in a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). In the training data, generalized additive models with splines were plotted for each MELD parameter. The lower and upper bound combinations with the maximum log-likelihood were chosen for the final models. The refit models were tested in the validation data with C-indices and Brier scores. Through likelihood ratio tests the refit models were compared to UNOS-MELD. The correlation between scores and survival of prioritized patients was calculated. A total of 6,684 patients were included. Based on training data, refit parameters were capped at creatinine 0.7-2.5, bilirubin 0.3-27, international normalized ratio 0.1-2.6, and sodium 120-139. ReMELD and reMELD-Na showed C-indices of 0.866 and 0.869, respectively. ReMELD-Na prioritized patients with 1.6 times higher 90-day mortality probabilities compared to UNOS-MELD.

CONCLUSIONS

Refitting MELD resulted in new lower and upper bounds for each parameter. The predictive power of reMELD-Na was significantly higher than UNOS-MELD. ReMELD prioritized patients with higher 90-day mortality rates. Thus, reMELD(-Na) should replace UNOS-MELD for liver graft allocation in the Eurotransplant region.

Validation of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease sodium (MELD-Na) score in the Eurotransplant region

The MELD score is used in the Eurotransplant (ET) region to allocate liver grafts. Hyponatremia in cirrhotic patients is an important predictor of death but is not incorporated in MELD. This study investigated the performance of the MELD-Na score for the ET region. All adult patients with chronic liver disease on the ET liver transplantation waiting list (WL) allocated through lab MELD scores were included. The MELD-corrected effect of serum sodium (Na) concentration at listing on the 90-day WL mortality was calculated using Cox regression. The MELD-Na performance was assessed with c-indices, calibration per decile and Brier scores. The reclassification from MELD to MELD-Na score was calculated to estimate the impact of MELD-Na-based allocation in the ET region. For the 5223 included patients, the risk of 90-day WL death was 2.9 times higher for hyponatremic patients. The MELD-Na had a significantly higher c-index of 0.847 (SE 0.007) and more accurate 90-day mortality prediction compared to MELD (Brier score of 0.059 vs 0.061). It was estimated that using MELD-Na would reduce WL mortality by 4.9%. The MELD-Na score yielded improved prediction of 90-day WL mortality in the ET region and using MELD-Na for liver allocation will very likely reduce WL mortality.