Estimates of the impact of a future influenza pandemic in China

A review of the evidence to support influenza vaccine introduction in countries and areas of WHO's Western Pacific Region

Background

Immunization against influenza is considered an essential public health intervention to control both seasonal epidemics and pandemic influenza. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there are five key policy and three key programmatic issues that decision-makers should consider before introducing a vaccine. These are (a) public health priority, (b) disease burden, (c) efficacy, quality and safety of the vaccine, (d) other inventions, (e) economic and financial issues, (f) vaccine presentation, (g) supply availability and (h) programmatic strength. We analyzed the body of evidence currently available on these eight issues in the WHO Western Pacific Region.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Studies indexed in PubMed and published in English between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2010 from the 37 countries and areas of the Western Pacific Region were screened for keywords pertaining to the five policy and three programmatic issues. Studies were grouped according to country income level and vaccine target group. There were 133 articles that met the selection criteria, with most (90%) coming from high-income countries. Disease burden (n = 34), vaccine efficacy, quality and safety (n = 27) and public health priority (n = 27) were most frequently addressed by studies conducted in the Region. Many studies assessed influenza vaccine policy and programmatic issues in the general population (42%), in the elderly (24%) and in children (17%). Few studies (2%) addressed the eight issues relating to pregnant women.

Conclusions/Significance

The evidence for vaccine introduction in countries and areas in this Region remains limited, particularly in low- and middle-income countries that do not currently have influenza vaccination programmes. Surveillance activities and specialized studies can be used to assess the eight issues including disease burden among vaccine target groups and the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccine. Multi-country studies should be considered to maximize resource utilization for cross-cutting issues such as vaccine presentation and other inventions.

How many working days would be missed due to moderate or severe influenza pandemic in China?

BACKGROUND

Under the current situation of influenza pandemic outbreak, it is urgent to estimate the potential work days lost in China.

METHOD

We used a Monte-Carlo simulation model based on the analysis framework of the FluWorkLoss 1.0 software to estimate the number of work days lost.

RESULTS

Work days lost caused by caring for family members were more than that caused by one's own illness. The care of a child caused more work days missed than the care of an elderly.

CONCLUSIONS

During a mild to moderate pandemic, outpatients and children need more attention. During a severe pandemic, inpatients and working adults will be the focus.