Establishment of a nomogram for predicting the surgical difficulty of anterior cervical spine surgery

A retrospective and prospective study to establish a preoperative difficulty predicting model for video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy and mediastinal lymph node dissection

Background

In previous studies, the difficulty of surgery has rarely been used as a research object. Our study aimed to develop a predictive model to enable preoperative prediction of the technical difficulty of video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy and mediastinal lymph node dissection using retrospective data and to validate our findings prospectively.

Methods

Collected data according to the designed data table and took the operation time as the outcome variable. A nomogram to predict the difficulty of surgery was established through Lasso logistic regression. The prospective datasets were analyzed and the outcome was the operation time.

Results

This retrospective study enrolled 351 patients and 85 patients were included in the prospective datasets. The variables in the retrospective research were selected by Lasso logistic regression (only used for modeling and not screening), and four significantly related influencing factors were obtained: FEV1/FVC (forced expiratory volume in the first second/forced vital capacity) (p < 0.001, OR, odds ratio = 0.89, 95% CI, confidence interval = 0.84–0.94), FEV1/pred FEV1 (forced expiratory volume in the first second/forced expiratory volume in the first second in predicted) (p = 0.076, OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.95–1.00), history of lung disease (p = 0.027, OR = 4.00, 95% CI = 1.27–15.64), and mediastinal lymph node enlargement or calcification (p < 0.001, OR = 9.78, 95% CI = 5.10–19.69). We used ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curves to evaluate the model. The training set AUC (area under curve) value was 0.877, the test set’s AUC was 0.789, and the model had a good calibration curve. In a prospective study, the data obtained in the research cohort were brought into the model again for verification, and the AUC value was 0.772.

Conclusion

Our retrospective study identified four preoperative variables that are correlated with a longer surgical time and can be presumed to reflect more difficult surgical procedures. Our prospective study verified that the variables in the prediction model (including prior lung disease, FEV1/pred FEV1, FEV1/FVC, mediastinal lymph node enlargement or calcification) were related to the difficulty.

Association between Preoperative hs-crp/Albumin Ratio and Postoperative sirs in Elderly Patients: A Retrospective Observational Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) is one of the severe postoperative complications in elderly patients and seriously affects their prognosis and survival rate. Heretofore, there have been no reliable and accurate methods to predict postoperative SIRS in elderly patients. The aim of this study was to determine whether increased preoperative hs-CRP/albumin ratio (CAR) was associated with postoperative SIRS in elderly population.

METHODS

The data of patients aged ≥ 65 years who underwent general anesthesia in two centers of Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between January 2015 and September 2020 were retrieved and analyzed. Based on the perioperative dataset, we used the targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) to estimate the association between preoperative CAR and postoperative SIRS in elderly population. Patients' CAR was calculated and divided into two groups (< 0.278 and ≥ 0.278) according to its normal range in our hospital. Adjusted odd ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated respectively. Further sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the robustness of the results.

RESULTS

A total of 16141 elderly patients were accessed and 7009 of them were enrolled in the final analysis, and 1674 (23.9%) patients developed SIRS within 3 days after surgery. Compared with non-SIRS patients, patients with SIRS had a significantly longer postoperative hospitalization, higher cost and higher risk of in-hospital mortality. Compared with patients with preoperative CAR < 0.278, we found that CAR ≥ 0.278 had a significantly higher risk for the development of postoperative SIRS after multivariable adjustment [aOR = 1.27; 95% CI (1.21, 1.33)]. The interaction effect of preoperative CAR ≥ 0.278 and SIRS was stronger among patients with the following characteristics: aged ≥ 75 years, male, comorbid with diabetes mellitus and admitted to ICU after surgery, duration of surgery < 120 minutes, underwent cerebral surgery or skin, spine and joint surgery (all P < 0.001). The above results remained robust in the sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative CAR ≥ 0.278 was significantly associated with increased risk of postoperative SIRS in elderly patients. Special attention should be paid to elderly patients with a preoperative CAR ≥ 0.278 so as to reduce the incidence of postoperative SIRS.