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Loisate S, Mutembo S, Arambepola R, Makungo K, Kabalo EN, Sinyange NB, Kapata N, Liwewe M, Silumezi A, Chongwe G, Kostandova N, Truelove S, Wesolowski A. Changes in mobility patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in Zambia: Implications for the effectiveness of NPIs in Sub-Saharan Africa. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 3:e0000892. [PMID: 37906535 PMCID: PMC10617722 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000892] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2022] [Accepted: 09/22/2023] [Indexed: 11/02/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted many facets of human behavior, including human mobility partially driven by the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as stay at home orders, travel restrictions, and workplace and school closures. Given the importance of human mobility in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, there have been an increase in analyses of mobility data to understand the COVID-19 pandemic to date. However, despite an abundance of these analyses, few have focused on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Here, we use mobile phone calling data to provide a spatially refined analysis of sub-national human mobility patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic from March 2020-July 2021 in Zambia using transmission and mobility models. Overall, among highly trafficked intra-province routes, mobility decreased up to 52% during the time of the strictest NPIs (March-May 2020) compared to baseline. However, despite dips in mobility during the first wave of COVID-19 cases, mobility returned to baseline levels and did not drop again suggesting COVID-19 cases did not influence mobility in subsequent waves.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stacie Loisate
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Simon Mutembo
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
- Ministry of Health, Government of the Republic of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Rohan Arambepola
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | | | - Elliot N. Kabalo
- Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority, Lusaka, Zambia
| | | | - Nathan Kapata
- Zambian National Public Health Institute, Lusaka, Zambia
| | | | | | | | - Natalya Kostandova
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Shaun Truelove
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Amy Wesolowski
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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Wilkinson B, Patel KS, Smith K, Walker R, Wang C, Greene AM, Smith G, Smith ER, Gurwith M, Chen RT. A Brighton Collaboration standardized template with key considerations for a benefit/risk assessment for the Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine (NVX-CoV2373), a recombinant spike protein vaccine with Matrix-M adjuvant to prevent disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 viruses. Vaccine 2023; 41:6762-6773. [PMID: 37739888 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.07.040] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2023] [Accepted: 07/20/2023] [Indexed: 09/24/2023]
Abstract
Novavax, a global vaccine company, began evaluating NVX-CoV2373 in human studies in May 2020 and the pivotal placebo-controlled phase 3 studies started in November 2020; five clinical studies provided adult and adolescent clinical data for over 31,000 participants who were administered NVX-CoV2373. This extensive data has demonstrated a well-tolerated response to NVX-CoV2373 and high vaccine efficacy against mild, moderate, or severe COVID-19 using a two-dose series (Dunkle et al., 2022) [1], (Heath et al., 2021) [2], (Keech et al., 2020) [3], (Mallory et al., 2022) [4]. The most common adverse events seen after administration with NVX-CoV2373 were injection site tenderness, injection site pain, fatigue, myalgia, headache, malaise, arthralgia, nausea, or vomiting. In addition, immunogenicity against variants of interest (VOI) and variants of concern (VOC) was established with high titers of ACE2 receptor-inhibiting and neutralizing antibodies in these studies (EMA, 2022) [5], (FDA, 2023) [6]. Further studies on correlates of protection determined that titers of anti-Spike IgG and neutralizing antibodies correlated with efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 established in clinical trials (p < 0.001 for recombinant protein vaccine and p = 0.005 for mRNA vaccines for IgG levels) (Fong et al., 2022) [7]. Administration of a booster dose of the recombinant protein vaccine approximately 6 months following the primary two-dose series resulted in substantial increases in humoral antibodies against both the prototype strain and all evaluated variants, similar to or higher than the antibody levels observed in phase 3 studies that were associated with high vaccine efficacy (Dunkle et al., 2022) [1], (Mallory et al., 2022) [4]. These findings, together with the well tolerated safety profile, support use of the recombinant protein vaccine as primary series and booster regimens.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Emily R Smith
- Brighton Collaboration, a program of the Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, GA, USA.
| | - Marc Gurwith
- Brighton Collaboration, a program of the Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, GA, USA
| | - Robert T Chen
- Brighton Collaboration, a program of the Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, GA, USA
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3
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Han Q, Bragazzi N, Asgary A, Orbinski J, Wu J, Kong JD. Estimation of epidemiological parameters and ascertainment rate from early transmission of COVID-19 across Africa. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2023; 10:230316. [PMID: 37736525 PMCID: PMC10509578 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.230316] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2023] [Accepted: 08/21/2023] [Indexed: 09/23/2023]
Abstract
Country reported case counts suggested a slow spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa. Owing to inadequate public awareness, unestablished monitoring practices, limited testing and stigmas, there might exist extensive under-ascertainment of the true number of cases, especially at the beginning of the novel epidemic. We developed a compartmentalized epidemiological model to track the early epidemics in 54 African countries. Data on the reported cumulative number of cases and daily confirmed cases were used to fit the model for the time period with no or little massive national interventions yet in each country. We estimated that the mean basic reproduction number is 2.02 (s.d. 0.7), with a range between 1.12 (Zambia) and 3.64 (Nigeria). The mean overall report rate was estimated to be 5.37% (s.d. 5.71%), with the highest 30.41% in Libya and the lowest 0.02% in São Tomé and Príncipe. An average of 5.46% (s.d. 6.4%) of all infected cases were severe cases and 66.74% (s.d. 17.28%) were asymptomatic ones. The estimated low reporting rates in Africa suggested a clear need for improved reporting and surveillance systems in these countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qing Han
- Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC), York University, Keele Campus, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M3J 1P3
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), York University, Keele Campus, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M3J 1P3
| | - Nicola Bragazzi
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), York University, Keele Campus, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M3J 1P3
| | - Ali Asgary
- Disaster and Emergency Management, School of Administrative Studies, Faculty of Liberal Arts and Professional Studies, York University, Keele Campus, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M3J 1P3
| | - James Orbinski
- Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, York University, Keele Campus, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M3J 1P3
| | - Jianhong Wu
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), York University, Keele Campus, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M3J 1P3
| | - Jude Dzevela Kong
- Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC), York University, Keele Campus, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M3J 1P3
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), York University, Keele Campus, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M3J 1P3
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4
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Galli M, Zardini A, Gamshie WN, Santini S, Tsegaye A, Trentini F, Marziano V, Guzzetta G, Manica M, d'Andrea V, Putoto G, Manenti F, Ajelli M, Poletti P, Merler S. Priority age targets for COVID-19 vaccination in Ethiopia under limited vaccine supply. Sci Rep 2023; 13:5586. [PMID: 37019980 PMCID: PMC10075159 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-32501-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2022] [Accepted: 03/28/2023] [Indexed: 04/07/2023] Open
Abstract
The worldwide inequitable access to vaccination claims for a re-assessment of policies that could minimize the COVID-19 burden in low-income countries. Nine months after the launch of the national vaccination program in March 2021, only 3.4% of the Ethiopian population received two doses of COVID-19 vaccine. We used a SARS-CoV-2 transmission model to estimate the level of immunity accrued before the launch of vaccination in the Southwest Shewa Zone (SWSZ) and to evaluate the impact of alternative age priority vaccination targets in a context of limited vaccine supply. The model was informed with available epidemiological evidence and detailed contact data collected across different geographical settings (urban, rural, or remote). We found that, during the first year of the pandemic, the mean proportion of critical cases occurred in SWSZ attributable to infectors under 30 years of age would range between 24.9 and 48.0%, depending on the geographical setting. During the Delta wave, the contribution of this age group in causing critical cases was estimated to increase on average to 66.7-70.6%. Our findings suggest that, when considering the vaccine product available at the time (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19; 65% efficacy against infection after 2 doses), prioritizing the elderly for vaccination remained the best strategy to minimize the disease burden caused by Delta, irrespectively of the number of available doses. Vaccination of all individuals aged ≥ 50 years would have averted 40 (95%PI: 18-60), 90 (95%PI: 61-111), and 62 (95%PI: 21-108) critical cases per 100,000 residents in urban, rural, and remote areas, respectively. Vaccination of all individuals aged ≥ 30 years would have averted an average of 86-152 critical cases per 100,000 individuals, depending on the setting considered. Despite infections among children and young adults likely caused 70% of critical cases during the Delta wave in SWSZ, most vulnerable ages should remain a key priority target for vaccination against COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Margherita Galli
- Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
- Department of Mathematics, Computer Science and Physics, University of Udine, Udine, Italy
| | - Agnese Zardini
- Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
| | | | | | | | - Filippo Trentini
- Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
- Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy
| | | | - Giorgio Guzzetta
- Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
- Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy
| | - Mattia Manica
- Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
- Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy
| | - Valeria d'Andrea
- Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
| | | | | | - Marco Ajelli
- Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA
| | - Piero Poletti
- Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.
- Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy.
| | - Stefano Merler
- Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
- Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy
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6
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Fischer C, Maponga TG, Yadouleton A, Abílio N, Aboce E, Adewumi P, Afonso P, Akorli J, Andriamandimby SF, Anga L, Ashong Y, Beloufa MA, Bensalem A, Birtles R, Boumba ALM, Bwanga F, Chaponda M, Chibukira P, Chico RM, Chileshe J, Chongwe G, Cissé A, D'Alessandro U, de Lamballerie XN, de Morais JFM, Derrar F, Dia N, Diarra Y, Doumbia L, Drosten C, Dussart P, Echodu R, Eggers Y, Eloualid A, Faye O, Feldt T, Frühauf A, Halatoko A, Ilouga PV, Ismael N, Jambou R, Jarju S, Kamprad A, Katowa B, Kayiwa J, King'wara L, Koita O, Lacoste V, Lagare A, Landt O, Lekana-Douki SE, Lekana-Douki JB, Iipumbu E, Loemba H, Lutwama J, Mamadou S, Maman I, Manyisa B, Martinez PA, Matoba J, Mhuulu L, Moreira-Soto A, Mwangi J, N Dilimabaka N, Nassuna CA, Ndiath MO, Nepolo E, Njouom R, Nourlil J, Nyanjom SG, Odari EO, Okeng A, Ouoba JB, Owusu M, Owusu Donkor I, Phadu KK, Phillips RO, Preiser W, Ruhanya V, Salah F, Salifou S, Sall AA, Sylverken AA, Tagnouokam-Ngoupo PA, Tarnagda Z, Tchikaya FO, Tufa TB, Drexler JF. RETRACTED: Gradual emergence followed by exponential spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Africa. Science 2022; 378:eadd8737. [PMID: 36454863 DOI: 10.1126/science.add8737] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
Abstract
The geographic and evolutionary origins of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (BA.1), which was first detected mid-November 2021 in Southern Africa, remain unknown. We tested 13,097 COVID-19 patients sampled between mid-2021 to early 2022 from 22 African countries for BA.1 by real-time RT-PCR. By November-December 2021, BA.1 had replaced the Delta variant in all African sub-regions following a South-North gradient, with a peak Rt of 4.1. Polymerase chain reaction and near-full genome sequencing data revealed genetically diverse Omicron ancestors already existed across Africa by August 2021. Mutations, altering viral tropism, replication and immune escape, gradually accumulated in the spike gene. Omicron ancestors were therefore present in several African countries months before Omicron dominated transmission. These data also indicate that travel bans are ineffective in the face of undetected and widespread infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlo Fischer
- Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Institute of Virology, Berlin, Germany
| | - Tongai Gibson Maponga
- Division of Medical Virology, Stellenbosch University Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Anges Yadouleton
- Laboratoire dés fievres hemorragiques virales de Cotonou, Akpakpa, Benin
| | - Nuro Abílio
- Instituto Nacional de Saúde, Maputo, Mozambique
| | | | - Praise Adewumi
- Laboratoire dés fievres hemorragiques virales de Cotonou, Akpakpa, Benin
| | - Pedro Afonso
- Instituto Nacional de Investigação em Saúde (INIS), Luanda, Angola
| | - Jewelna Akorli
- Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of Ghana, Legon, Ghana
| | | | - Latifa Anga
- Institut Pasteur du Maroc, Casablanca, Morocco
| | - Yvonne Ashong
- Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of Ghana, Legon, Ghana
| | | | - Aicha Bensalem
- Institut Pasteur of Algeria, National Influenza Centre, Sidi-Fredj, Algeria
| | - Richard Birtles
- Gulu University Multifunctional Research Laboratories, Gulu, Uganda.,School of Science, Engineering and Environment, University of Salford, Salford, UK
| | - Anicet Luc Magloire Boumba
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Marien Ngouabi University, Pointe-Noire, Congo.,Molecular Diagnostic Laboratory HDL, Pointe-Noire, Congo
| | - Freddie Bwanga
- MBN Clinical Laboratories, Kampala, Uganda.,Makerere University College of Health Sciences, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Mike Chaponda
- Tropical Diseases Research Centre, Ndola Teaching Hospital, Ndola, Zambia
| | - Paradzai Chibukira
- National Virology Laboratory, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Zimbabwe, Avondale, Zimbabwe
| | | | - Justin Chileshe
- Tropical Diseases Research Centre, Ndola Teaching Hospital, Ndola, Zambia
| | - Gershom Chongwe
- Tropical Diseases Research Centre, Ndola Teaching Hospital, Ndola, Zambia
| | - Assana Cissé
- Laboratoire National de Référence-Grippes, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Umberto D'Alessandro
- Medical Research Council Unit at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Banjul, Gambia
| | | | | | - Fawzi Derrar
- Institut Pasteur of Algeria, National Influenza Centre, Sidi-Fredj, Algeria
| | - Ndongo Dia
- Institut Pasteur de Dakar (IPD), Dakar, Senegal
| | - Youssouf Diarra
- Université des Sciences, des Techniques et des Technologies de Bamako (USTTB), Bamako, Mali
| | - Lassina Doumbia
- Université des Sciences, des Techniques et des Technologies de Bamako (USTTB), Bamako, Mali
| | - Christian Drosten
- Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Institute of Virology, Berlin, Germany.,German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), associated Partner Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | | | - Richard Echodu
- Gulu University Multifunctional Research Laboratories, Gulu, Uganda
| | - Yannik Eggers
- Hirsch Institute of Tropical Medicine, Asella, Ethiopia.,Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Infectious Diseases, University Hospital Düsseldorf, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | | | | | - Torsten Feldt
- Hirsch Institute of Tropical Medicine, Asella, Ethiopia.,Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Infectious Diseases, University Hospital Düsseldorf, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Anna Frühauf
- Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Institute of Virology, Berlin, Germany
| | | | | | | | - Ronan Jambou
- Centre de Recherche Médicale et Sanitaire (CERMES), Niamey, Niger
| | - Sheikh Jarju
- Medical Research Council Unit at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Banjul, Gambia
| | - Antje Kamprad
- Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Institute of Virology, Berlin, Germany
| | - Ben Katowa
- Macha Research Trust, Choma, Zambia.,School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - John Kayiwa
- Uganda Virus Research Institute, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Leonard King'wara
- National Public Health Reference Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Ousmane Koita
- Université des Sciences, des Techniques et des Technologies de Bamako (USTTB), Bamako, Mali
| | | | - Adamou Lagare
- Centre de Recherche Médicale et Sanitaire (CERMES), Niamey, Niger
| | | | | | | | - Etuhole Iipumbu
- School of Medicine, University of Namibia, Windhoek, Namibia
| | - Hugues Loemba
- Molecular Diagnostic Laboratory HDL, Pointe-Noire, Congo.,Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Santou Mamadou
- Centre de Recherche Médicale et Sanitaire (CERMES), Niamey, Niger
| | | | - Brendon Manyisa
- National Virology Laboratory, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Zimbabwe, Avondale, Zimbabwe
| | - Pedro A Martinez
- Instituto Nacional de Investigação em Saúde (INIS), Luanda, Angola
| | - Japhet Matoba
- Macha Research Trust, Choma, Zambia.,School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Lusia Mhuulu
- School of Medicine, University of Namibia, Windhoek, Namibia
| | - Andres Moreira-Soto
- Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Institute of Virology, Berlin, Germany
| | - Judy Mwangi
- Gulu University Multifunctional Research Laboratories, Gulu, Uganda.,School of Science, Engineering and Environment, University of Salford, Salford, UK
| | - Nadine N Dilimabaka
- Centre Interdisciplinaire de Recherches Médicales de Franceville (CIRMF), Franceville, Gabon
| | | | - Mamadou Ousmane Ndiath
- Medical Research Council Unit at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Banjul, Gambia
| | - Emmanuel Nepolo
- School of Medicine, University of Namibia, Windhoek, Namibia
| | | | | | - Steven Ger Nyanjom
- School of Biomedical Sciences, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Eddy Okoth Odari
- School of Biomedical Sciences, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | | | - Michael Owusu
- Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine (KCCR), Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Irene Owusu Donkor
- Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of Ghana, Legon, Ghana
| | - Karabo Kristen Phadu
- Division of Medical Virology, Stellenbosch University Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Richard Odame Phillips
- Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine (KCCR), Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Wolfgang Preiser
- Division of Medical Virology, Stellenbosch University Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Cape Town, South Africa.,National Health Laboratory Service Tygerberg Business Unit, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Vurayai Ruhanya
- National Virology Laboratory, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Zimbabwe, Avondale, Zimbabwe
| | | | | | | | - Augustina Angelina Sylverken
- Kumasi Centre for Collaborative Research in Tropical Medicine (KCCR), Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi, Ghana.,Department of Theoretical and Applied Biology, KNUST, Kumasi, Ghana
| | | | - Zekiba Tarnagda
- Laboratoire National de Référence-Grippes, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | | | - Tafese Beyene Tufa
- Hirsch Institute of Tropical Medicine, Asella, Ethiopia.,Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Infectious Diseases, University Hospital Düsseldorf, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Jan Felix Drexler
- Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Institute of Virology, Berlin, Germany.,German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), associated Partner Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
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7
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Jemal SS, Alemu BD. Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 Among Five High Burden African Countries. Clin Epidemiol 2022; 14:1013-1029. [PMID: 36051859 PMCID: PMC9426766 DOI: 10.2147/clep.s366142] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2022] [Accepted: 08/21/2022] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Today, coronavirus disease-19 has left a permanent dark mark on the history of human beings. The ongoing global pandemic outbreak of COVID-19 has spread to 58 African countries, with over 6.07 million confirmed cases and over 151,412 deaths. The five high burden African countries are South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia, Ethiopia, and Libya, with case fatality rates (CFR) of nearly 0.15%, 0.042%, 0.22%, 0.006%, and 0.086%, respectively. This is why the research aims to adequately understand the transmission dynamics of the virus and its variants in five high-burden African countries. Methods Our study is a deterministic model, where the population is partitioned into five components on the epidemiological state of the individuals. We presented a year-structured susceptible, infected, mild severs, critical severe, and recover (SIMCR) compartmental model of COVID-19 disease transmission with incidence rate during the pandemic period. Results The number of susceptible individuals increased by 30,711,930 in South Africa, 5,919,837 in Morocco, 3,485,020 in Tunisia, 7,833,642 in Ethiopia, and 2,145,404 in Libya in the next 3 decades with compare to the unvaccinated population and the number of infected individuals decreased by 30,479,271 in South Africa, 19,809,751 in Morocco, 3,456,406 in Tunisia, 7,761,993 in Ethiopia, and 2,125,038 in Libya. Conclusion SIMCR model is used to describe the transmission of COVID-19 among five high-burden African countries. For the next 30 years, we will have around 86 million infected individuals and millions of death only in those five African countries. To reduce those problems, vaccination is the best and most effective mechanism. So vaccinating half of the populations in those countries helps to control and reduce the transmission rate of COVID-19 in Africa for the next 30 years. This leads to preventing 17,212,405 people from becoming infected and millions of deaths being reduced in those five high-burden African countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sebwedin Surur Jemal
- Department of Statistics, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Mizan-Tepi University, Tepi, Ethiopia
| | - Bizuwork Derebew Alemu
- Department of Statistics, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Mizan-Tepi University, Tepi, Ethiopia
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