Accelerating climate change impacts on alpine glacier forefield ecosystems in the European Alps

The Role of Snow-Related Environmental Variables in Plant Conservation Plans in the Mediterranean Mountains

This study aims to analyze the effects that snow cover may have on the survival of one-year-old seedlings from 15 different taxa in the Mediterranean high mountains (Sierra Nevada National Park, SE Spain) in order to have clearer criteria for the planning and management of restoration efforts in these environments. Additionally, the influence of variables that have been scarcely explored up to now is also revised. We use the survival rates of the seedlings observed from the ecological restoration trial as reference values. The survival data analyzed are based on six variables to evaluate their effects. The results confirm that the permanence of snow is a favorable factor for seedlings, independent of the plant community. Contrastingly, a specific type of foundation (stones and rocks) stands out for being clearly unfavorable, regardless of other variables. For both altitude and solar radiation, a worsening of the survival ratio has been observed as they increase. The species' geographic ranges are all shown to be unfavorable for taxa of a boreo-alpine distribution. Finally, the plant community does not have a significant influence on the survival of seedlings. These results provide novel indications to improve the results of the first stages of restoration work in the Mediterranean high mountains. They are also valuable for the management and cataloging of threatened flora, as well as having direct applications in recovery plans and protection lists.

Heterogeneous changes of soil microclimate in high mountains and glacier forelands

Landscapes nearby glaciers are disproportionally affected by climate change, but we lack detailed information on microclimate variations that can modulate the impacts of global warming on proglacial ecosystems and their biodiversity. Here, we use near-subsurface soil temperatures in 175 stations from polar, equatorial and alpine glacier forelands to generate high-resolution temperature reconstructions, assess spatial variability in microclimate change from 2001 to 2020, and estimate whether microclimate heterogeneity might buffer the severity of warming trends. Temporal changes in microclimate are tightly linked to broad-scale conditions, but the rate of local warming shows great spatial heterogeneity, with faster warming nearby glaciers and during the warm season, and an extension of the snow-free season. Still, most of the fine-scale spatial variability of microclimate is one-to-ten times larger than the temporal change experienced during the past 20 years, indicating the potential for microclimate to buffer climate change, possibly allowing organisms to withstand, at least temporarily, the effects of warming.

Evaluation of the methane paradox in four adjacent pre-alpine lakes across a trophic gradient

Contrasting the paradigm that methane is only produced in anoxic conditions, recent discoveries show that oxic methane production (OMP, aka the methane paradox) occurs in oxygenated surface waters worldwide. OMP drivers and their contribution to global methane emissions, however, are not well constrained. In four adjacent pre-alpine lakes, we determine the net methane production rates in oxic surface waters using two mass balance approaches, accounting for methane sources and sinks. We find that OMP occurs in three out of four studied lakes, often as the dominant source of diffusive methane emissions. Correlations of net methane production versus chlorophyll-a, Secchi and surface mixed layer depths suggest a link with photosynthesis and provides an empirical upscaling approach. As OMP is a methane source in direct contact with the atmosphere, a better understanding of its extent and drivers is necessary to constrain the atmospheric methane contribution by inland waters.

Accuracy of mutual predictions of plant and microbial communities vary along a successional gradient in an alpine glacier forefield

Receding glaciers create virtually uninhabited substrates waiting for initial colonization of bacteria, fungi and plants. These glacier forefields serve as an ideal ecosystem for studying transformations in community composition and diversity over time and the interactions between taxonomic groups in a dynamic landscape. In this study, we investigated the relationships between the composition and diversity of bacteria, fungi, and plant communities as well as environmental factors along a successional gradient. We used random forest analysis assessing how well the composition and diversity of taxonomic groups and environmental factors mutually predict each other. We did not identify a single best indicator for all taxonomic and environmental properties, but found specific predictors to be most accurate for each taxon and environmental factor. The accuracy of prediction varied considerably along the successional gradient, highlighting the dynamic environmental conditions along the successional gradient that may also affect biotic interactions across taxa. This was also reflected by the high accuracy of predictions of plot age by all taxa. Next to plot age, our results indicate a strong importance of pH and temperature in structuring microbial and plant community composition. In addition, taxonomic groups predicted the community composition of each other more accurately than environmental factors, which may either suggest that these groups similarly respond to other not measured environmental factors or that direct interactions between taxa shape the composition of their communities. In contrast, diversity of taxa was not well predicted, suggesting that community composition of one taxonomic group is not a strong driver of the diversity of another group. Our study provides insights into the successional development of multidiverse communities shaped by complex interactions between taxonomic groups and the environment.

Fungal communities in European alpine soils are not affected by short-term in situ simulated warming than bacterial communities

The impact of global warming on biological communities colonizing European alpine ecosystems was recently studied. Hexagonal open top chambers (OTCs) were used for simulating a short-term in situ warming (estimated around 1°C) in some alpine soils to predict the impact of ongoing climate change on resident microbial communities. Total microbial DNA was extracted from soils collected either inside or outside the OTCs over 3 years of study. Bacterial and fungal rRNA copies were quantified by qPCR. Metabarcoding sequencing of taxonomy target genes was performed (Illumina MiSeq) and processed by bioinformatic tools. Alpha- and beta-diversity were used to evaluate the structure of bacterial and fungal communities. qPCR suggests that, although fluctuations have been observed between soils collected either inside and outside the OTCs, the simulated warming induced a significant (p < 0.05) shift only for bacterial abundance. Likewise, significant (p < 0.05) changes in bacterial community structure were detected in soils collected inside the OTCs, with a clear increase of oligotrophic taxa. On the contrary, fungal diversity of soils collected either inside and outside the OTCs did not exhibit significant (p < 0.05) differences, suggesting that the temperature increase in OTCs compared to ambient conditions was not sufficient to change fungal communities.

Automated Delineation of Supraglacial Debris Cover Using Deep Learning and Multisource Remote Sensing Data

High-mountain glaciers can be covered with varying degrees of debris. Debris over glaciers (supraglacial debris) significantly alter glacier melt, velocity, ice geometry, and, thus, the overall response of glaciers towards climate change. The accumulated supraglacial debris impedes the automated delineation of glacier extent owing to its similar reflectance properties with surrounding periglacial debris (debris aside the glaciated area). Here, we propose an automated scheme for supraglacial debris mapping using a synergistic approach of deep learning and multisource remote sensing data. A combination of multisource remote sensing data (visible, near-infrared, shortwave infrared, thermal infrared, microwave, elevation, and surface slope) is used as input to a fully connected feed-forward deep neural network (i.e., deep artificial neural network). The presented deep neural network is designed by choosing the optimum number and size of hidden layers using the hit and trial method. The deep neural network is trained over eight sites spread across the Himalayas and tested over three sites in the Karakoram region. Our results show 96.3% accuracy of the model over test data. The robustness of the proposed scheme is tested over 900 km2 and 1710 km2 of glacierized regions, representing a high degree of landscape heterogeneity. The study provides proof of the concept that deep neural networks can potentially automate the debris-covered glacier mapping using multisource remote sensing data.

Soil Formation and Mass Redistribution during the Holocene Using Meteoric 10Be, Soil Chemistry and Mineralogy

Soil development and erosion are important and opposing processes in the evolution of high-mountainous landscapes, though their dynamics are not fully understood. We compared soil development between a calcareous and a siliceous chronosequence in the central Swiss Alps at high altitudes, which both cover soil formation over the Holocene. We calculated element mass balances, long-term erosion rates based on meteoric 10Be and we determined the rates of soil formation. We also analyzed the shifts in the mineralogical composition, weathering indices, the particle size distribution, carbon stocks and oxalate extractable Fe, Al, and Mn. The siliceous soils had high chemical weathering rates at the early stage of soil formation that strongly decreased after a few millennia. The development of calcareous soil was characterized by high carbonate losses and a shift to finer soil texture. Soil erosion hampered the upbuilding of soil horizons in the early stages of soil development, which led to a delay in soil and vegetation development. This study shows how soil formation drivers change over time. In the early stages of soil development, the parent material predominantly drives soil formation while at later stages the vegetation becomes more dominant as it influences surface stability, hydrological pathways, and chemical weathering that determine water drainage and retention.

Vegetation Assembly, Adaptive Strategies and Positive Interactions During Primary Succession in the Forefield of the Last Venezuelan Glacier

Glaciers are receding at unprecedented rates in the alpine tropics, opening-up new areas for ecosystem assembly. However, little is known about the patterns/mechanisms of primary succession during the last stages of glacier retreat in tropical mountains. Our aim was to analyze soil development and vegetation assembly during primary succession, and the role of changing adaptive strategies and facilitative interactions on these processes at the forefront of the last Venezuelan glacier (Humboldt Peak, 4,940 m asl). We established a chronosequence of four sites where the glacier retreated between 1910 and 2009. We compared soil organic matter (SOM), nutrients and temperatures inside vs. outside biological soil crusts (BSCs) at each site, estimated the cover of lichen, bryophyte and vascular plant species present, and analyzed changes in their growth-form abundance and species/functional turnover. We also evaluated local spatial associations between lichens/bryophytes and the dominant ruderal vascular plant (the grass Poa petrosa). We found a progressive increase in SOM during the first century of succession, while BSCs only had a positive buffering effect on superficial soil temperatures. Early seral stages were dominated by lichens and bryophytes, while vascular plant cover remained low during the first six decades, and was almost exclusively represented by wind dispersed/pollinated grasses. There was a general increase in species richness along the chronosequence, but it declined in late succession for lichens. Lichen and bryophyte communities exhibited a higher species turnover than vascular plants, resulting in the loss of some pioneer specialists as succession progressed. Lichen and bryophyte species were positively associated with safe-sites for the colonization of the dominant ruderal grass, suggesting a possible facilitation effect. Our results indicate that lichens and bryophytes play a key role as pioneers in these high tropical alpine environments. The limited initial colonization of vascular plants and the progressive accumulation of species and growth-forms (i.e., direct succession) could be linked to a combination of severe environmental filtering during early seral stages and limitations for zoochoric seed dispersal and entomophilic/ornithophilic pollination. This could potentially result in a slow successional response of these ecosystems to accelerated glacier loss and climate change.

Short term effects of climate change and intensification of management on the abundance of microbes driving nitrogen turnover in montane grassland soils

Montane grasslands in Europe are exposed to increasing temperatures twice as fast as the global average. Changes in climatic conditions are possibly accompanied by an increase in land use intensity, caused by a prolongation of the vegetation period and the need to improve productivity. Therefore, the investigation of combined effects of climate change and land use intensity is needed to further implement agricultural management strategies. Here we present results from a study performed in the pre-alpine region of southern Germany, where intact plant-soil mesocosms from grasslands, were translocated along an altitudinal gradient, resulting in an increase in soil temperature (moderate treatment: +0.5 K; strong treatment: +1.9 K warming) during the experimental period. Additionally, we applied an extensive or intensive agricultural management (two vs. five times of mowing and slurry application) on the transplanted mesocosms. After an exposure of one year, we measured plant growth and soil properties and quantified abundances of soil microorganisms catalyzing key steps in the nitrogen (N) cycle. Our data indicate, significant interactions between climate change and management. For example, microbial biomass was significantly reduced (-47.7% and -49.8% for C_mic and N_mic respectively), which was further accompanied by lower abundances of N₂-fixing bacteria (up to -89,3%), as well as ammonia oxidizing bacteria (-81.4%) under intensive management, whereas N-mineralizing bacteria increased in abundance (up to +139.8%) under extensive management. Surprisingly, the abundances of denitrifying bacteria as well as mean N₂O emissions were not affected by the treatments. Overall, our data suggest pronounced shifts in the abundance of microbes driving the N cycle in soil as a result of combined climate change and land use intensification already after a short simulation period of one year.

Living at the Edge: Increasing Stress for Plants 2–13 Years After the Retreat of a Tropical Glacier

Rapid warming is a major threat for the alpine biodiversity but, at the same time, accelerated glacial retreat constitutes an opportunity for taxa and communities to escape range contraction or extinction. We explored the first steps of plant primary succession after accelerated glacial retreat under the assumption that the first few years are critical for the success of plant establishment. To this end, we examined plant succession along a very short post-glacial chronosequence in the tropical Andes of Ecuador (2–13 years after glacial retreat). We recorded the location of all plant individuals within an area of 4,200 m2 divided into plots of 1 m2. This sampling made it possible to measure the responses of the microenvironment, plant diversity and plants traits to time since the glacial retreat. It also made it possible to produce species-area curves and to estimate positive interactions between species. Decreases in soil temperature, soil moisture, and soil macronutrients revealed increasing abiotic stress for plants between two and 13 years after glacial retreat. This increasing stress seemingly explained the lack of positive correlation between plant diversity and time since the glacial retreat. It might explain the decreasing performance of plants at both the population (lower plant height) and the community levels (lower species richness and lower accumulation of species per area). Meanwhile, infrequent spatial associations among plants indicated a facilitation deficit and animal-dispersed plants were almost absent. Although the presence of 21 species on such a small sampled area seven years after glacial retreat could look like a colonization success in the first place, the increasing abiotic stress may partly erase this success, reducing species richness to 13 species after 13 years and increasing the frequency of patches without vegetation. This fine-grain distribution study sheds new light on nature's responses to the effects of climate change in cold biomes, suggesting that faster glacial retreat would not necessarily result in accelerated plant colonization. Results are exploratory and require site replications for generalization.

Key rules of life and the fading cryosphere: Impacts in alpine lakes and streams

Alpine regions are changing rapidly due to loss of snow and ice in response to ongoing climate change. While studies have documented ecological responses in alpine lakes and streams to these changes, our ability to predict such outcomes is limited. We propose that the application of fundamental rules of life can help develop necessary predictive frameworks. We focus on four key rules of life and their interactions: the temperature dependence of biotic processes from enzymes to evolution; the wavelength dependence of the effects of solar radiation on biological and ecological processes; the ramifications of the non-arbitrary elemental stoichiometry of life; and maximization of limiting resource use efficiency across scales. As the cryosphere melts and thaws, alpine lakes and streams will experience major changes in temperature regimes, absolute and relative inputs of solar radiation in ultraviolet and photosynthetically active radiation, and relative supplies of resources (e.g., carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus), leading to nonlinear and interactive effects on particular biota, as well as on community and ecosystem properties. We propose that applying these key rules of life to cryosphere-influenced ecosystems will reduce uncertainties about the impacts of global change and help develop an integrated global view of rapidly changing alpine environments. However, doing so will require intensive interdisciplinary collaboration and international cooperation. More broadly, the alpine cryosphere is an example of a system where improving our understanding of mechanistic underpinnings of living systems might transform our ability to predict and mitigate the impacts of ongoing global change across the daunting scope of diversity in Earth's biota and environments.

Insects in high-elevation streams: Life in extreme environments imperiled by climate change

Climate change is altering conditions in high-elevation streams worldwide, with largely unknown effects on resident communities of aquatic insects. Here, we review the challenges of climate change for high-elevation aquatic insects and how they may respond, focusing on current gaps in knowledge. Understanding current effects and predicting future impacts will depend on progress in three areas. First, we need better descriptions of the multivariate physical challenges and interactions among challenges in high-elevation streams, which include low but rising temperatures, low oxygen supply and increasing oxygen demand, high and rising exposure to ultraviolet radiation, low ionic strength, and variable but shifting flow regimes. These factors are often studied in isolation even though they covary in nature and interact in space and time. Second, we need a better mechanistic understanding of how physical conditions in streams drive the performance of individual insects. Environment-performance links are mediated by physiology and behavior, which are poorly known in high-elevation taxa. Third, we need to define the scope and importance of potential responses across levels of biological organization. Short-term responses are defined by the tolerances of individuals, their capacities to perform adequately across a range of conditions, and behaviors used to exploit local, fine-scale variation in abiotic factors. Longer term responses to climate change, however, may include individual plasticity and evolution of populations. Whether high-elevation aquatic insects can mitigate climatic risks via these pathways is largely unknown.

Common Patterns and Diverging Trajectories in Primary Succession of Plants in Eastern Alpine Glacier Forelands

This paper deals with the vegetation development in four glacier forelands, aligned along a distance of 250 km from West to East in the siliceous Eastern Central Alps. The study employs a chronosequence approach, which assumes a temporal sequence in vegetation development by spatially different sites regarding time since deglaciation. The chronosequences cover the area between Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum glacier extent around 1850, and the current glacier terminus. Despite some shortcomings, chronosequences allow the identification of general patterns of primary succession of plants as a function of site age and local environmental conditions, e.g., changes in species richness, ground cover, plant functional traits, and community structure. While there is no shortage of chronosequence studies in glacier forelands of the Alps, a straightforward comparison aimed at the deduction of general successional trajectories is tricky, due to different procedures of vegetation sampling and data analyses. The comparative examination by a standardized sampling and analyzing protocol of four glacier forelands in the Eastern Central Alps presented here proves the existence of several common patterns in primary succession, but also diverging successional trajectories from West to East. While the pioneer stage in all glacier forelands is similar both floristically and structurally, from the early successional stage onwards, differences increase, leading to different phases in the late successional stage, which is shrub dominated throughout in the westernmost study site, herb–grass–dwarfshrub dominated throughout in the easternmost study site, and divided into an earlier herb–grass–dwarfshrub phase and a later shrub phase in the two study sites in between.

Comparison of Diatom Paleo-Assemblages with Adjacent Limno-Terrestrial Communities on Vega Island, Antarctic Peninsula

Diatoms are useful ecological and paleolimnological indicators routinely used to reconstruct past conditions and monitor environmental change. Despite this, diatom assemblages from lake sediment cores are often difficult to interpret due to a limited knowledge of the ecology of some species, some of which may originate from the adjacent limno-terrestrial landscape. Here, we compare diatom assemblages from two recently published Antarctic lake sediment cores collected from the northeast and southwest sides of Vega Island, Antarctic Peninsula. We further compare the sediment core assemblages with adjacent modern communities inhabiting four different limno-terrestrial habitat types to gauge the importance of landscape connectivity in determining paleo-assemblage structure. We found that diatom assemblage composition was significantly different between the two cores, and our survey of modern habitats further revealed habitat type to be an important factor determining the composition of limno-terrestrial samples. Differences in modern habitats were driven primarily by Chamaepinnularia krookiformis in mosses, Nitzschia paleacea in ponds, and Fistulifera pelliculosa in streams. When modern communities were compared with paleo-assemblages through ordination, the cored lake from the northeast side, which exhibited greater hydrological connectivity with its surroundings, clustered more closely with the adjacent modern samples. Meanwhile, the cored lake from the southwest side, which was more hydrologically isolated, formed a distinct cluster separate from the others. Overall, species richness and diversity were greater on the southwest side of the island than the northeast, and the known distributions of diatom taxa supported the notion that Vega Island was a transitional zone between the Maritime and Continental Antarctic bioregions. These results collectively suggested that while environmental and spatial controls may be influential in determining diatom community composition, the unique hydrogeological setting of individual waterbodies was an important consideration for determining the assemblage structure of lake cores. This paper furthermore expanded ongoing research of diatom diversity and distributions on maritime Antarctic islands, which will improve diatom-based interpretations for regional ecological monitoring and paleolimnology in the future.

The Status of Earth Observation Techniques in Monitoring High Mountain Environments at the Example of Pasterze Glacier, Austria: Data, Methods, Accuracies, Processes, and Scales

Earth observation offers a variety of techniques for monitoring and characterizing geomorphic processes in high mountain environments. Terrestrial laserscanning and unmanned aerial vehicles provide very high resolution data with high accuracy. Automatic cameras have become a valuable source of information—mostly in a qualitative manner—in recent years. The availability of satellite data with very high revisiting time has gained momentum through the European Space Agency’s Sentinel missions, offering new application potential for Earth observation. This paper reviews the status of recent techniques such as terrestrial laserscanning, remote sensed imagery, and synthetic aperture radar in monitoring high mountain environments with a particular focus on the impact of new platforms such as Sentinel-1 and -2 as well as unmanned aerial vehicles. The study area comprises the high mountain glacial environment at the Pasterze Glacier, Austria. The area is characterized by a highly dynamic geomorphological evolution and by being subject to intensive scientific research as well as long-term monitoring. We primarily evaluate landform classification and process characterization for: (i) the proglacial lake; (ii) icebergs; (iii) the glacier river; (iv) valley-bottom processes; (v) slope processes; and (vi) rock wall processes. We focus on assessing the potential of every single method both in spatial and temporal resolution in characterizing different geomorphic processes. Examples of the individual techniques are evaluated qualitatively and quantitatively in the context of: (i) morphometric analysis; (ii) applicability in high alpine regions; and (iii) comparability of the methods among themselves. The final frame of this article includes considerations on scale dependent process detectability and characterization potentials of these Earth observation methods, along with strengths and limitations in applying these methods in high alpine regions.

Soil alters seedling establishment responses to climate

Ecologists expect species and biomes to shift poleward and upward with climate change, but non-climatic factors complicate these predictions. In mountains, forests are expected to expand upward along climate gradients into subalpine/alpine meadows, while meadows expand upward onto bare ground. However, soils also vary across elevation, with bare soil above the meadows potentially poorer for plant establishment. Poor soil might constrain expansion at meadows' upper edges, while rich meadow soil might facilitate contraction at lower edges by promoting tree establishment. We assessed climate and soil effects on establishment by transplanting soil and seedlings of meadow and tree species across climate gradients on Mount Rainier. There were considerable interspecific differences, but some generalisations emerged. Survival often declined with earlier snow disappearance, with somewhat smaller declines in meadow soil. Size often increased with earlier snow disappearance, with larger increases in meadow soil. Thus, soil patterns may complicate range shifts.

Vegetation dynamics in Alpine glacier forelands tackled from space

Monitoring of plant succession in glacier forelands has so far been restricted to field sampling. In this study, in situ vegetation sampling along a chronosequence between Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum extent and the recent glacier terminus at Jamtalferner in the Austrian Alps is compared to time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) calculated from 13 Landsat scenes (1985–2016). The glacier terminus positions at 16 dates between the LIA maximum and 2015 were analysed from historical maps, orthophotos and LiDAR images. We sampled plots of different ages since deglaciation, from very recent to approx. 150 years: after 100 years, roughly 80% of the ground is covered by plants and ground cover does not increase significantly thereafter. The number of species increases from 10–20 species on young sites to 40–50 species after 100 years. The NDVI increases with the time of exposure from a mean of 0.11 for 1985–1991 to 0.20 in 2009 and 0.27 in 2016. As the increase in ground cover is clearly reproduced by the NDVI (R² ground cover/NDVI 0.84) – even for sparsely vegetated areas –, we see a great potential of satellite-borne NDVI to perform regional characterizations of glacier forelands for hydrological, ecological and hazard management-related applications.

Water-Energy Nexus for an Italian Storage Hydropower Plant under Multiple Drivers

Climate change has repercussions on the management of water resources. Particularly, changes in precipitation and temperature impact hydropower generation and revenue by affecting seasonal electricity prices and streamflow. This issue exemplifies the impact of climate change on the water-energy-nexus, which has raised serious concern. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on hydropower with a multidisciplinary approach. A holistic perspective should be favored as the issue is complex, consequently, we chose to investigate a specific case study in Italy. It allows grasping the details, which matters in mountainous area. We integrated a hydrological model, hydropower management model, nine climate scenarios, and five electricity scenarios for a specific storage hydropower plant. Independently from the scenarios, the results show a glacier volume shrinkage upward of 40% by 2031 and minimum of 50% by 2046. The reservoir mitigates losses of revenue that reach 8% in the worst case, however, are lower compared with run-of-the-river configuration. Changes in price seasonality amplitude also determine modifications in revenues, while temporal shifts appear to be ineffective. For run-of-the-river, any variation in hydrological cycle immediately translates into revenue. Comparing the results of all future scenarios with the base scenario, it can be concluded that an increase in temperature will slightly improve the performances of hydropower.

Hydropower from the Alpine Cryosphere in the Era of Climate Change: The Case of the Sabbione Storage Plant in Italy

Greenhouse gas reduction policies will have to rely as much as possible upon renewable, clean energy sources. Hydropower is a very good candidate, since it is the only renewable energy source whose production can be adapted to demand, and still has a large exploitation margin, especially in developing countries. However, in Europe the contribution of hydropower from the cold water in the mountain areas is at stake under rapid cryospheric down wasting under global warming. Italian Alps are no exception, with a large share of hydropower depending upon cryospheric water. We study here climate change impact on the iconic Sabbione (Hosandorn) glacier, in the Piemonte region of Italy, and the homonymous reservoir, which collects water from ice melt. Sabbione storage plant has operated since 1953 and it was, until recently, the highest altitude dam of Europe at 2460 m asl, and the former second largest dam of the Alps with 44 Mm3. We use two models, namely Poly-Hydro and Poly-Power, to assess (i) present hydrological budget and components (i.e., ice/snow melt, rainfall), and (ii) hydropower production under optimal reservoirs’ management, respectively. We then project forward hydrological cycle including Sabbione glacier’s fate, under properly downscaled climate change scenarios (three General Circulation Models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, nine scenarios overall) from IPCC until 2100, and we assess future potential for hydropower production under the reservoir’s re-operation. Mean annual discharge during 2000–2017 is estimated at 0.90 m3 s−1, with ice melt contribution of ca. 11.5%, and ice cover as measured by remote sensing changing from 4.23 km2 in 2000 to 2.94 km2 in 2017 (−30%). Mean hydropower production during 2005–2017 is estimated as 46.6 GWh. At the end of the century ice covered area would be largely depleted (0–0.37 km2), and ice melt contribution would drop largely over the century (0%–10%, 5% on average at half century, and null in practice at the end of century). Therefore, decreased ice cover, and uncertain patterns of changing precipitation, would combine to modify the future stream fluxes (−22% to −3%, −10% on average at half century, and −28% to 1%, average −13%, at the end of century). Power production, driven by seasonal demand and water availability, would change (decrease) in the future (−27% to −8%, −15% on average at half century, and −32% to −5%, −16% at the end of century). Our results demonstrate potential for decrease of cold water in this area, paradigmatic of the present state of hydropower in the Alps, and subsequent considerable hydropower losses under climate change, and claim for adaptation measures therein.

Trends in Population Size of Rare Plant Species in the Alpine Habitats of the Ukrainian Carpathians under Climate Change

Population trends in rare alpine plant species in the high-mountain zone of the Ukrainian Carpathians are described with regard to the types of habitats where they occur. Populations of cold-adapted species confined to snowbeds, alpine screes, poorly vegetated rocks, and the highest ridges, as well as mires and springs, are very vulnerable to climate change, while their habitats tend to shrink. The direct impact of warming affects mainly the most cryophilic species. Another driver of changes is climate-induced succession that results in denser vegetation cover and encroachment of more thermophilic plants, which replace low-competitive rare alpine species. Their replacement is largely caused by the loss of open microsites suitable for seed recruitment. However, the climate-driven decrease of snow cover often leads to frost damage to vegetation that provides gaps appropriate for the establishment of many rare species. One of the groups of species that benefit from warming includes rather thermophilic tall herbs that are more common in the subalpine zone but have been actively spreading at higher altitudes lately.

Independent Shifts of Abundant and Rare Bacterial Populations across East Antarctica Glacial Foreland

Glacial forelands are extremely sensitive to temperature changes and are therefore appropriate places to explore the development of microbial communities in response to climate-driven deglaciation. In this study, we investigated the bacterial communities that developed at the initial stage of deglaciation using space-for-time substitution in the foreland of an ice sheet in Larsemann Hills. A series of soil samples across the glacial foreland were deeply sequenced with 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing to determine the bacterial community, including both abundant bacteria, which contribute more to geobiochemistry, and rare bacteria, which serve as a seed bank for diversity. Our results show that abundant bacterial communities were more sensitive to changing conditions in the early stages of deglaciation than rare community members. Moreover, among the environmental parameters tested, which included total organic carbon, pH, and moisture of the soils, ice thickness was the most influential factor affecting the community structure of abundant bacteria. These results show the different effects of abundant and rare bacteria on community shifts and highlight ice thickness as the primary factor affecting the bacterial community in the early stages of deglaciation. The response of microbial community to climate change can be predicted with more certainty in this polar region.

Assembly patterns of soil-dwelling lichens after glacier retreat in the European Alps

AIM

To assess the spatial-temporal dynamics of primary succession following deglaciation in soil-dwelling lichen communities.

LOCATION

European Alps (Austria, Switzerland and Italy).

METHODS

Five glacier forelands subjected to relevant glacier retreat during the last century were investigated. In each glacier foreland, three successional stages were selected at increasing distance from the glacier, corresponding to a gradient of time since deglaciation between 25 and 160 years. In each successional stage, soil-dwelling lichens were surveyed within five 1 × 1 m plots. In addition to a classical ecological framework, based on species richness and composition, we applied a functional approach to better elucidate community assembly mechanisms.

RESULTS

A positive relationship was found between species richness and time since deglaciation indicating that richer lichen communities can be found at increasing terrain ageing. This pattern was associated with compositional shifts, suggesting that different community assemblages can be found along the successional stages. The analysis of β-diversity revealed a significant nested pattern of species assemblages along the gradient (i.e. earlier successional stages hosted a subset of the species already established in older successional stages), while the turnover component was less relevant. Considering functional groups, we found contrasting patterns in relation to time since deglaciation: the incidence of species with a cyanobacterial photobiont and those reproducing by spores decreased, while that of species reproducing by vegetative propagules increased.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

This study reveals that community assembly patterns of soil-dwelling lichens in alpine glacier forelands are ruled by mechanisms of directional species accumulation and trait selection that involve a trade-off between different functional strategies. Functional traits that reflect the dispersal and adaptation capability of the species underpin the colonization success of soil-dwelling lichens in glacier forelands.

Continental divide: Predicting climate-mediated fragmentation and biodiversity loss in the boreal forest

Climate change threatens natural landscapes through shifting distribution and abundance of species and attendant change in the structure and function of ecosystems. However, it remains unclear how climate-mediated variation in species’ environmental niche space may lead to large-scale fragmentation of species distributions, altered meta-population dynamics and gene flow, and disrupted ecosystem integrity. Such change may be especially relevant when species distributions are restricted either spatially or to a narrow environmental niche, or when environments are rapidly changing. Here, we use range-wide environmental niche models to posit that climate-mediated range fragmentation aggravates the direct effects of climate change on species in the boreal forest of North America. We show that climate change will directly alter environmental niche suitability for boreal-obligate species of trees, birds and mammals (n = 12), with most species ranges becoming smaller and shifting northward through time. Importantly, species distributions will become increasingly fragmented, as characterized by smaller mean size and greater isolation of environmentally-suitable landscape patches. This loss is especially pronounced along the Ontario-Québec border, where the boreal forest is narrowest and roughly 78% of suitable niche space could disappear by 2080. Despite the diversity of taxa surveyed, patterns of range fragmentation are remarkably consistent, with our models predicting that spruce grouse (Dendragapus canadensis), boreal chickadee (Poecile hudsonicus), moose (Alces americanus) and caribou (Rangifer tarandus) could have entirely disjunct east-west population segments in North America. These findings reveal potentially dire consequences of climate change on population continuity and species diversity in the boreal forest, highlighting the need to better understand: 1) extent and primary drivers of anticipated climate-mediated range loss and fragmentation; 2) diversity of species to be affected by such change; 3) potential for rapid adaptation in the most strongly-affected areas; and 4) potential for invasion by replacement species.

Evolution in situ: hybrid origin and establishment of willows (Salix L.) on alpine glacier forefields

Little attention has been paid to the evolutionary consequences of the colonizing dynamics and succession processes following glacier retreat. Here we studied hybrid populations that have recently formed and established on glacier forefields of the European Alps owing to secondary contact of a lowland colonizer with a subalpine species. We analyzed the composition of two hybrid populations between Salix purpurea and Salix helvetica with nine microsatellite markers by using Bayesian methods (structure and NewHybrids), and simulations. We also studied niche differentiation between the hybrids and the parental species based on indicator values, soil pH and water retention potential measurements. Allelic structure of hybrids confirms the assumed parentage and in situ origin of the crosses on two independent sites within the last decades. Both hybrid populations comprised F₁ and later generation hybrids (F₂ and backcrosses), confirming hybrid fertility. The parental species showed significant differences in niche characteristics for temperature, soil pH, nutrients and moisture. Remarkably, the hybrids exhibited a higher tolerance to cold temperatures, nutrient-poor and acidic soils than either parent. Our results show that willow hybrids originated after glacier retreat and have established persistent populations within a few decades. One factor contributing to hybrid establishment in sympatry with their parents is their ability to occupy more extreme niches than either parental species within a mosaic-like pattern of microhabitats on the forefield. Introgression and/or transgressive segregation may have resulted in novel genotypes that are able to expand the ecological spectrum of either parent.

The influence of glacial meltwater on alpine aquatic ecosystems: a review

The recent and rapid recession of alpine glaciers over the last 150 years has major implications for associated aquatic communities. Glacial meltwater shapes many of the physical features of high altitude lakes and streams, producing turbid environments with distinctive hydrology patterns relative to nival systems. Over the past decade, numerous studies have investigated the chemical and biological effects of glacial meltwater on freshwater ecosystems. Here, we review these studies across both lake and stream ecosystems. Focusing on alpine regions mainly in the Northern Hemisphere, we present examples of how glacial meltwater can affect habitat by altering physical and chemical features of aquatic ecosystems, and review the subsequent effects on the biological structure and function of lakes and streams. Collectively or separately, these factors can drive the overall distribution, diversity and behavior of primary producers, triggering cascading effects throughout the food web. We conclude by proposing areas for future research, particularly in regions where glaciers are soon projected to disappear.

Nitrogen deposition and warming - effects on phytoplankton nutrient limitation in subarctic lakes

The aim of this study was to predict the combined effects of enhanced nitrogen (N) deposition and warming on phytoplankton development in high latitude and mountain lakes. Consequently, we assessed, in a series of enclosure experiments, how lake water nutrient stoichiometry and phytoplankton nutrient limitation varied over the growing season in 11 lakes situated along an altitudinal/climate gradient with low N-deposition (<1 kg N ha(-1)  yr(-1) ) in northern subarctic Sweden. Short-term bioassay experiments with N- and P-additions revealed that phytoplankton in high-alpine lakes were more prone to P-limitation, and with decreasing altitude became increasingly N- and NP-colimited. Nutrient limitation was additionally most obvious in midsummer. There was also a strong positive correlation between phytoplankton growth and water temperature in the bioassays. Although excess nutrients were available in spring and autumn, on these occasions growth was likely constrained by low water temperatures. These results imply that enhanced N-deposition over the Swedish mountain areas will, with the exception of high-alpine lakes, enhance biomass and drive phytoplankton from N- to P-limitation. However, if not accompanied by warming, N-input from deposition will stimulate limited phytoplankton growth due to low water temperatures during large parts of the growing season. Direct effects of warming, allowing increased metabolic rates and an extension of the growing season, seem equally crucial to synergistically enhance phytoplankton development in these lakes.

Evaluating tourist perception of environmental changes as a contribution to managing natural resources in glacierized areas: a case study of the Forni glacier (Stelvio National Park, Italian Alps)

Climate change effects are noticeably evident above the timberline where glacier and permafrost processes and mass movements drive the surface evolution. In particular, the cryosphere shrinkage is deeply changing the features and characteristics of several glacierized mountain areas of the world, and these modifications can also affect the landscape perception of tourists and mountaineers. On the one hand glacier retreat is increasing the interest of tourists and visitors in areas witnessing clear climate change impacts; on the other hand cryosphere shrinkage can impact the touristic appeal of mountain territories which, diminishing their ice and snow coverage, are also losing part of their aesthetic value. Then, to promote glacierized areas in a changing climate and to prepare exhaustive and actual proposals for sustainable tourism, it is important to deepen our knowledge about landscape perception of tourists and mountaineers and their awareness of the ongoing environmental modifications. Here we present the results from a pilot study we performed in summer 2009 on a representative glacierized area of the Alps, the Forni Valley (Stelvio National Park, Lombardy, Italy), a valley shaped by Forni, the largest Italian valley glacier. During the 2009 summer season we asked tourists visiting the Forni Valley to complete a questionnaire. This study was aimed at both describing the features and characteristics of tourists and mountaineers visiting this Alpine zone in summer and evaluating their landscape perception and their ability to recognize climate change impacts and evidence. Our results suggest that the dissemination strategies in a natural protected area have to take into account not only the main landscape features but also the sites where the information will be given. In particular considering the peculiarities of the huts located in the area, such as their different accessibility and the fact that they are included or not in a mountaineering network like that of the Italian Alpine Club. Both these factors can influence the kind of visitors to the area, thus requiring different dissemination strategies. Moreover, differences in the viewpoints from where visitors could watch and understand landscape also have to be considered. Next, in a protected area where climate change effects are evident, the dissemination strategies should be developed in close cooperation with scientists who are analyzing the area and with the support of periodic interviews which could be very useful to evaluate the effectiveness of the applied dissemination methods. Last but not least, the questionnaire should be standardized and distributed in several protected areas, thus permitting useful comparisons and the identification of common solutions for sharing in a friendly way scientific knowledge about climate change and its effects on the environment and the landscape.

Contrasting patterns of nucleotide diversity for four conifers of Alpine European forests

A candidate gene approach was used to identify levels of nucleotide diversity and to identify genes departing from neutral expectations in coniferous species of the Alpine European forest. Twelve samples were collected from four species that dominate montane and subalpine forests throughout Europe: Abies alba Mill, Larix decidua Mill, Pinus cembra L., and Pinus mugo Turra. A total of 800 genes, originally resequenced in Pinus taeda L., were resequenced across 12 independent trees for each of the four species. Genes were assigned to two categories, candidate and control, defined through homology-based searches to Arabidopsis. Estimates of nucleotide diversity per site varied greatly between polymorphic candidate genes (range: 0.0004–0.1295) and among species (range: 0.0024–0.0082), but were within the previously established ranges for conifers. Tests of neutrality using stringent significance thresholds, performed under the standard neutral model, revealed one to seven outlier loci for each species. Some of these outliers encode proteins that are involved with plant stress responses and form the basis for further evolutionary enquiries.

The geographical and environmental determinants of genetic diversity for four alpine conifers of the European Alps

Climate is one of the most important drivers of local adaptation in forest tree species. Standing levels of genetic diversity and structure within and among natural populations of forest trees are determined by the interplay between climatic heterogeneity and the balance between selection and gene flow. To investigate this interplay, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped in 24 to 37 populations from four subalpine conifers, Abies alba Mill., Larix decidua Mill., Pinus cembra L. and Pinus mugo Turra, across their natural ranges in the Italian Alps and Apennines. Patterns of population structure were apparent using a Bayesian clustering program, STRUCTURE, which identified three to five genetic groups per species. Geographical correlates with these patterns, however, were only apparent for P. cembra. Multivariate environmental variables [i.e. principal components (PCs)] were subsequently tested for association with SNPs using a Bayesian generalized linear mixed model. The majority of the SNPs, ranging from six in L. decidua to 18 in P. mugo, were associated with PC1, corresponding to winter precipitation and seasonal minimum temperature. In A. alba, four SNPs were associated with PC2, corresponding to the seasonal minimum temperature. Functional annotation of those genes with the orthologs in Arabidopsis revealed several genes involved in abiotic stress response. This study provides a detailed assessment of population structure and its association with environment and geography in four coniferous species in the Italian mountains.

Factors influencing the breeding habitat use by amphibians in the alpine area of the Retezat National Park (Romania)

We analyzed the distribution of amphibians according to the characteristics of breeding ponds in the alpine areas of the Retezat National Park. We inventoried 50 aquatic habitats between 1920 and 2260 m a.s.l. Three amphibian species are present at high altitudes:Rana temporaria, Bufo bufoandMesotriton alpestris. They were found in 70% of the aquatic habitats, but only 48% were used as spawning sites. Human impacts and predators were the most influential variables explaining the occurrence ofR. temporaria, whereas location and pond adjacent terrain were important forM. alpestris. Moderate grazing had a positive effect by maintaining low vegetation or providing nutrients input in the oligotrophic aquatic habitats.

Assessing the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change

There is an urgent need to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. This paper aims to provide an overview of current research, to identify knowledge gaps, and to propose future research needs in this challenging area. Evidence shows that climate change is affecting and will, in the future, have more (mostly adverse) impacts on ecosystems. Ecosystem degradation, particularly the decline of the life support systems, will undoubtedly affect human health and wellbeing. Therefore, it is important to develop a framework to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change, and to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to minimize the impact of climate change.