Calculating when elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair improves survival for individual patients: development of the Aneurysm Repair Decision Aid and economic evaluation

Endovascular Aneurysm Repair Versus Open Surgical Repair in Treating Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) denotes an abdominal aorta dilation exceeding 3 cm, typically asymptomatic until rupture, posing severe consequences, including fatality. Therefore, continual screening is imperative, and surgical intervention is recommended upon reaching a diameter of 5.5 cm to prevent rupture. The primary surgical approaches are open surgical repair or open repair (OR) and endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR). This review juxtaposes EVAR's short- and long-term effectiveness, safety, and perioperative complications in AAA patients versus OR, elucidating clinical benefits and avenues for further research. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, an extensive literature review was conducted using the PubMed and Clinicaltrials.gov databases. The review specifically focused on clinical studies directly comparing EVAR versus OR. The comprehensive literature review revealed that EVAR confers a survival advantage for up to four years post-procedure. However, the benefit shifts to OR after four to eight years due to aneurysm-related complications, such as ruptures, underscoring the necessity of lifelong post-EVAR monitoring. Following EVAR, AAA patients necessitate significantly more frequent secondary interventions due to graft-related issues, including endoleaks, thereby escalating long-term complexity and care costs. Conversely, following OR, a notably higher proportion of patients require mechanical ventilation and blood transfusions and experience prolonged intensive-care and mid-care unit stays, consequently extending hospitalization. After EVAR, patients recover substantially faster, returning to normal activities sooner. Nonetheless, the long-term quality of life between the two procedures becomes comparable. While EVAR presents itself as a less invasive alternative to OR, especially for high surgical risk patients, the imperative of long-term surveillance and the risk of secondary interventions pose significant challenges. Advancements in EVAR technology and technique are broadening its utility. Yet, continual research is crucial to optimize patient selection, improve long-term outcomes, and ensure that EVAR's benefits outweigh the risks. Therefore, choosing EVAR over OR in treating AAA patients must factor in a patient's overall health, anatomical considerations, and the probability of long-term success.

Effect of socioeconomic status on patients undergoing elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair in a publicly funded health care system

BACKGROUND

The association between socioeconomic status (SES) and outcomes after abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair in publicly funded health care systems is poorly described. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of SES on postoperative outcomes in patients who underwent AAA repair in Nova Scotia, Canada.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of all elective AAA repairs in Nova Scotia between November 2005 and March 2015 using administrative data sources. We compared postoperative 30-day outcomes and long-term survival across socio-economic quintiles, defined as the Pampalon Material Deprivation Index (MDI) and Social Deprivation Index (SDI). We also compared the relation between baseline characteristics, MDI quintile, SDI quintile and 30-day mortality. We used multivariable logistic regression and survival analysis to calculate adjusted 30-day mortality and long-term survival, respectively.

RESULTS

A total of 1913 patients underwent AAA repair during the study period. The overall 30-day mortality rate was 2.6% (50 patients). Thirty-day outcomes including death (p = 0.8), stroke (p = 0.7), myocardial infarction (p = 0.06), length of stay (p = 0.3) and discharge disposition other than home (p = 0.8) were similar across MDI quintiles. Similarly, there was no statistically significant association between SDI quintile and postoperative outcomes. Multivariable analysis showed that age greater than 70 years (odds ratio [OR] 3.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.55-6.06) and open repair (OR 3.22, 95% CI 1.59-6.52) but not MDI quintile (p = NS) or SDI quintile (p = NS) were associated with increased 30-day mortality. There was no effect of MDI or SDI quintile on long-term survival on univariable or multivariable analysis.

CONCLUSION

Socioeconomic status does not appear to affect short- or long-term mortality after AAA repair in a publicly funded health care system. Further research is needed to address any existing gaps in screening and referral before repair.

Prognostic model for survival of patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms treated with endovascular aneurysm repair

The role of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) in patients with asymptomatic abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) who are unfit for open surgical repair has been questioned. The impending risk of aneurysm rupture, the risk of elective repair, and the life expectancy must be balanced when considering elective AAA repair. This retrospective observational cohort study included all consecutive patients treated with standard EVAR for AAA at a referral centre between 2001 and 2020. A previously published predictive model for survival after EVAR in patients treated between 2001 and 2012 was temporally validated using patients treated at the same institution between 2013 and 2020 and updated using the overall cohort. 558 patients (91.2% males, mean age 74.9 years) were included. Older age, lower eGFR, and COPD were independent predictors for impaired survival. A risk score showed good discrimination between four risk groups (Harrel's C = 0.70). The 5-years survival probabilities were only 40% in "high-risk" patients, 68% in "moderate-to-high-risk" patients, 83% in "low-to-moderate-risk", and 89% in "low-risk" patients. Low-risk patients with a favourable life expectancy are likely to benefit from EVAR, while high-risk patients with a short life expectancy may not benefit from EVAR at the current diameter threshold.

Antithrombotic Therapy for Aortic Aneurysms: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVES

The role of antithrombotic therapy in the management of aortic and peripheral aneurysms is unclear. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess the impact of antithrombotics on clinical outcomes for aortic and peripheral aneurysms.

METHODS

Medline, Embase, and CENTRAL databases were searched. Randomised controlled trials and observational studies investigating the effect of antithrombotic therapy on clinical outcomes for patients with any aortic or peripheral artery aneurysm were included.

RESULTS

Fifty-nine studies (28 with antiplatelet agents, 12 anticoagulants, two intra-operative heparin, and 16 any antithrombotic agent) involving 122 102 patients were included. Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) growth rate was not significantly associated with the use of antiplatelet therapy (SMD -0.36 mm/year; 95% CI -0.75 - 0.02; p = .060; GRADE certainty: very low). Antithrombotics were associated with increased 30 day mortality for patients with AAAs undergoing intervention (OR 2.30; 95% CI 1.51 - 3.51; p < .001; GRADE certainty: low). Following intervention, antiplatelet therapy was associated with reduced long term all cause mortality (HR 0.84; 95% CI 0.76 - 0.92; p < .001; GRADE certainty: moderate), whilst anticoagulants were associated with increased all cause mortality (HR 1.64; 95% CI 1.14 - 2.37; p = .008; GRADE certainty: very low), endoleak within three years (OR 1.99; 95% CI 1.10 - 3.60; p = .020; I² = 60%; GRADE certainty: very low), and an increased re-intervention rate at one year (OR 3.25; 95% CI 1.82 - 5.82; p < .001; I² = 35%; GRADE certainty: moderate). Five studies examined antithrombotic therapy for popliteal aneurysms. Meta-analysis was not possible due to heterogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a lack of high quality data examining antithrombotic therapy for patients with aneurysms. Antiplatelet therapy was associated with a reduction in post-intervention all cause mortality for AAA, whilst anticoagulants were associated with an increased risk of all cause mortality, endoleak, and re-intervention. Large, well designed trials are still required to determine the therapeutic benefits of antithrombotic agents in this setting.

Epidemiology of endovascular and open repair for abdominal aortic aneurysms in the United States from 2004 to 2015 and implications for screening

BACKGROUND

Contemporary national trends in the repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) and intact AAAs are relatively unknown. Furthermore, screening is only covered by insurance for patients aged 65 to 75 years with a family history of AAAs and for men with a positive smoking history. It is unclear what proportion of patients who present with a ruptured AAA would have been candidates for screening.

METHODS

Using the National Inpatient Sample from 2004 to 2015, we identified ruptured and intact AAA admissions and repairs using the International Classification of Diseases codes. We generated the screening-eligible cohort using previously identified proportions of male smokers (87%) and all patients with a family history of AAAs (10%) and applied these proportions to patients aged 65 to 75 years. We accounted for those who could have had a previous AAA diagnosis (17%), either from screening or an incidental detection in patients aged >75 years who had presented with AAA rupture. The primary outcomes were treatment and in-hospital mortality between patients meeting the criteria for screening vs those who did not.

RESULTS

We evaluated 65,125 admissions for ruptured AAAs and 461,191 repairs for intact AAAs. Overall, an estimated 45,037 admitted patients (68%) and 25,777 patients who had undergone repair for ruptured AAAs (59%) did not meet the criteria for screening. Of the patients who did not qualify, 27,653 (63%) were aged >75 years, 10,603 (24%) were aged <65 years, and 16,103 (36%) were women. Endovascular AAA repair (EVAR) increased for ruptured AAAs from 10% in 2004 to 55% in 2015 (P < .001), with operative mortality of 35%. EVAR increased for intact AAAs from 45% in 2004 to 83% in 2015 (P < .001), with operative mortality of 2.0%.

CONCLUSIONS

Most patients who had undergone repair for ruptured AAAs did not qualify for screening. EVAR was the primary treatment of both ruptured and intact AAAs with relatively low in-hospital mortality. Therefore, expansion of the screening criteria to include selected women and a wider age range should be considered.

The Effects of Minimum Caseload Requirements on Management and Outcome in Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair

BACKGROUND

The German quality assurance guideline on abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) was implemented by the Joint Federal Committee (Gemeinsamer Bundesausschuss, G-BA) in 2008. The aims of this study were to verify the association between hospital case volume and outcome and to assess the hypothetical effect of minimum caseload requirements.

METHODS

The German diagnosis-related groups statistics for the years 2012 to 2016 were scrutinized for AAA (ICD-10 GM I71.3/4) with procedure codes for endo - vascular or open surgical treatment. The primary endpoint was in-hospital mortality. Logistic regression models were used for risk adjustment, and odds ratios (OR) were calculated as a function of the annual hospital-level case volume of AAA. In a hypo - thetical approach, the linear distances for various minimum caseloads (MC) were evaluated to assess accessibility.

RESULTS

The mortality of intact AAA (iAAA) was 2.7% (men [M] 2.4%, women [W] 4.2%); ruptured AAA (rAAA), 36.9% (M 36.9%, F 37.5%). An inverse relationship between annual hospital case volume of AAA and mortality was confirmed (iAAA/rAAA: from 3.9%/51% [<10 cases/year] through 3.3%/37% [30-39 cases/year] to 1.9%/28% [≥ 75 cases/year]). For a reference category of 30 AAA procedures/year, the following significant OR were found: 10 AAA cases/year, OR 1.21 (95% confidence interval [1.20; 1.21]); 20 cases, OR 1.09 [1.09; 1.09]; 50 cases, OR 0.89 [0.89; 0.89]; 75 cases, OR 0.82 [0.82; 0.82]. In a hypothetical centralization scenario with assumed MC of 30/year, 86% of the population would have to travel less than 100 km to the nearest hospital; with an MC of 40, this would apply to only 50% (without redistribution effects).

CONCLUSION

In the observed period, a significant correlation was confirmed between high annual case volume and low in-hospital mortality. A minimum caseload requirement of 30 AAA operations/year seems reasonable in view of the accessibility of hospitals. Cite this.

How to Address Uncertainty in Health Economic Discrete-Event Simulation Models: An Illustration for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Background. Evaluation of personalized treatment options requires health economic models that include multiple patient characteristics. Patient-level discrete-event simulation (DES) models are deemed appropriate because of their ability to simulate a variety of characteristics and treatment pathways. However, DES models are scarce in the literature, and details about their methods are often missing. Methods. We describe 4 challenges associated with modeling heterogeneity and structural, stochastic, and parameter uncertainty that can be encountered during the development of DES models. We explain why these are important and how to correctly implement them. To illustrate the impact of the modeling choices discussed, we use (results of) a model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) as a case study. Results. The results from the case study showed that, under a correct implementation of the uncertainty in the model, a hypothetical intervention can be deemed as cost-effective. The consequences of incorrect modeling uncertainty included an increase in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio ranging from 50% to almost a factor of 14, an extended life expectancy of approximately 1.4 years, and an enormously increased uncertainty around the model outcomes. Thus, modeling uncertainty incorrectly can have substantial implications for decision making. Conclusions. This article provides guidance on the implementation of uncertainty in DES models and improves the transparency of reporting uncertainty methods. The COPD case study illustrates the issues described in the article and helps understanding them better. The model R code shows how the uncertainty was implemented. For readers not familiar with R, the model's pseudo-code can be used to understand how the model works. By doing this, we can help other developers, who are likely to face similar challenges to those described here.

Safety of Men With Small and Medium Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms Under Surveillance in the NAAASP

BACKGROUND

Population screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) has commenced in several countries, and has been shown to reduce AAA-related mortality by up to 50%. Most men who screen positive have an AAA <5.5 cm in diameter, the referral threshold for treatment, and are entered into an ultrasound surveillance program. This study aimed to determine the risk of ruptured AAA (rAAA) in men under surveillance.

METHODS

Men in the National Health Service AAA Screening Programme who initially had a small (3-4.4 cm) or medium (4.5-5.4 cm) AAA were followed up. The screening program's database collected data on ultrasound AAA diameter measurements, dates of referral, and loss to follow-up. Local screening programs recorded adverse outcomes, including rAAA and death. Rupture and mortality rates were calculated by initial and final known AAA diameter.

RESULTS

A total of 18 652 men were included (50 103 person-years of surveillance). Thirty-one men had rAAA during surveillance, of whom 29 died. Some 952 men died of other causes during surveillance, mainly cardiovascular complications (26.3%) and cancer (31.2%). The overall mortality rate was 1.96% per annum, similar for men with small and medium AAAs. The rAAA risk was 0.03% per annum (95% CI, 0.02%-0.05%) for men with small AAAs and 0.28% (0.17%-0.44%) for medium AAAs. The rAAA risk for men with AAAs just below the referral threshold (5.0-5.4 cm) was 0.40% (0.22%-0.73%).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of rAAA under surveillance is <0.5% per annum, even just below the present referral threshold of 5.5 cm, and only 0.4% of men under surveillance are estimated to rupture before referral. It can be concluded that men with small and medium screen-detected AAAs are safe provided they are enrolled in an intensive surveillance program, and that there is no evidence that the current referral threshold of 5.5 cm should be changed.

Manufacturing Abdominal Aorta Hydrogel Tissue-Mimicking Phantoms for Ultrasound Elastography Validation

Ultrasound (US) elastography, or elasticity imaging, is an adjunct imaging technique that utilizes sequential US images of soft tissues to measure the tissue motion and infer or quantify the underlying biomechanical characteristics. For abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA), biomechanical properties such as changes in the tissue's elastic modulus and estimates of the tissue stress may be essential for assessing the need for the surgical intervention. Abdominal aortic aneurysms US elastography could be a useful tool to monitor AAA progression and identify changes in biomechanical properties characteristic of high-risk patients. A preliminary goal in the development of an AAA US elastography technique is the validation of the method using a physically relevant model with known material properties. Here we present a process for the production of AAA tissue-mimicking phantoms with physically relevant geometries and spatially modulated material properties. These tissue phantoms aim to mimic the US properties, material modulus, and geometry of the abdominal aortic aneurysms. Tissue phantoms are made using a polyvinyl alcohol cryogel (PVA-c) and molded using 3D printed parts created using computer aided design (CAD) software. The modulus of the phantoms is controlled by altering the concentration of PVA-c and by changing the number of freeze-thaw cycles used to polymerize the cryogel. The AAA phantoms are connected to a hemodynamic pump, designed to deform the phantoms with the physiologic cyclic pressure and flows. Ultra sound image sequences of the deforming phantoms allowed for the spatial calculation of the pressure normalized strain and the identification of mechanical properties of the vessel wall. Representative results of the pressure normalized strain are presented.

Detecting Regional Stiffness Changes in Aortic Aneurysmal Geometries Using Pressure-Normalized Strain

Transabdominal ultrasound elasticity imaging could improve the assessment of rupture risk for abdominal aortic aneurysms by providing information on the mechanical properties and stress or strain states of vessel walls. We implemented a non-rigid image registration method to visualize the pressure-normalized strain within vascular tissues and adapted it to measure total strain over an entire cardiac cycle. We validated the algorithm's performance with both simulated ultrasound images with known principal strains and anatomically accurate heterogeneous polyvinyl alcohol cryogel vessel phantoms. Patient images of abdominal aortic aneurysm were also used to illustrate the clinical feasibility of our imaging algorithm and the potential value of pressure-normalized strain as a clinical metric. Our results indicated that pressure-normalized strain could be used to identify spatial variations in vessel tissue stiffness. The results of this investigation were sufficiently encouraging to warrant a clinical study measuring abdominal aortic pressure-normalized strain in a patient population with aneurysmal disease.

Morphological suitability for endovascular repair, non-intervention rates, and operative mortality in women and men assessed for intact abdominal aortic aneurysm repair: systematic reviews with meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Prognosis for women with abdominal aortic aneurysm might be worse than the prognosis for men. We aimed to systematically quantify the differences in outcomes between men and women being assessed for repair of intact abdominal aortic aneurysm using data from study periods after the year 2000.

METHODS

In these systematic reviews and meta-analysis, we identified studies (randomised, cohort, or cross-sectional) by searching MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL, and grey literature published between Jan 1, 2005, and Sept 2, 2016, for two systematic reviews and Jan 1, 2009, and Sept 2, 2016, for one systematic review. Studies were included if they were of both men and women, with data presented for each sex separately, with abdominal aortic aneurysms being assessed for aneurysm repair by either endovascular repair (EVAR) or open repair. We conducted three reviews based on whether studies reported the proportion morphologically suitable (within manufacturers' instructions for use) for EVAR (EVAR suitability review), non-intervention rates (non-intervention review), and 30-day mortality (operative mortality review) after intact aneurysm repair. Studies had to include at least 20 women (for the EVAR suitability review), 20 women (for the non-intervention review), and 50 women (for the operative mortality review). Studies were excluded if they were review articles, editorials, letters, or case reports. For the operative review, studies were also excluded if they only provided hazard ratios or only reported in-hospital mortality. We assessed the quality of the studies using the Newcastle-Ottawa scoring system, and contacted authors for the provision of additional data if needed. We combined results across studies by random-effects meta-analysis. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043227.

FINDINGS

Five studies assessed the morphological eligibility for EVAR (1507 men, 400 women). The overall pooled proportion of women eligible (34%) for EVAR was lower than it was in men (54%; odds ratio [OR] 0·44, 95% CI 0·32-0·62). Four single-centre studies reported non-intervention rates (1365 men, 247 women). The overall pooled non-intervention rates were higher in women (34%) than men (19%; OR 2·27, 95% CI 1·21-4·23). The review of 30-day mortality included nine studies (52 018 men, 11 076 women). The overall pooled estimate for EVAR was higher in women (2·3%) than in men (1·4%; OR 1·67, 95% CI 1·38-2·04). The overall estimate for open repair also was higher in women (5·4%) than in men (2·8%; OR 1·76, 95% CI 1·35-2·30).

INTERPRETATION

Compared with men, a smaller proportion of women are eligible for EVAR, a higher proportion of women are not offered intervention, and operative mortality is much higher in women for both EVAR and open repair. The management of abdominal aortic aneurysm in women needs improvement.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research (UK).

Using predictions from a joint model for longitudinal and survival data to inform the optimal time of intervention in an abdominal aortic aneurysm screening programme

Joint models of longitudinal and survival data can be used to predict the risk of a future event occurring based on the evolution of an endogenous biomarker measured repeatedly over time. This has led naturally to the use of dynamic predictions that update each time a new longitudinal measurement is provided. In this paper, we show how such predictions can be utilised within a fuller decision modelling framework, in particular to allow planning of future interventions for patients under a ‘watchful waiting’ care pathway. Through the objective of maximising expected life‐years, the predicted risks associated with not intervening (e.g. the occurrence of severe sequelae) are balanced against risks associated with the intervention (e.g. operative risks). Our example involves patients under surveillance in an abdominal aortic aneurysm screening programme where a joint longitudinal and survival model is used to associate longitudinal measurements of aortic diameter with the risk of aneurysm rupture. We illustrate how the decision to intervene, which is currently based on a diameter measurement greater than a certain threshold, could be made more personalised and dynamic through the application of a decision modelling approach.

Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Factors Influencing Survival Following Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair

BACKGROUND

Predicting long-term survival following repair is essential to clinical decision making when offering abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) treatment. A systematic review and a meta-analysis of pre-operative non-modifiable prognostic risk factors influencing patient survival following elective open AAA repair (OAR) and endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) was performed.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane electronic databases were searched to identify all relevant articles reporting risk factors influencing long-term survival (≥1 year) following OAR and EVAR, published up to April 2015. Studies with <100 patients and those involving primarily ruptured AAA, complex repairs (supra celiac/renal clamp), and high risk patients were excluded. Primary risk factors were increasing age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologist (ASA) score, and comorbidities such as ischaemic heart disease (IHD), cardiac failure, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), renal impairment, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral vascular disease (PVD), and diabetes. Estimated risks were expressed as hazard ratio (HR).

RESULTS

A total of 5,749 study titles/abstracts were retrieved and 304 studies were thought to be relevant. The systematic review included 51 articles and the meta-analysis 45. End stage renal disease and COPD requiring supplementary oxygen had the worst long-term survival, HR 3.15 (95% CI 2.45-4.04) and HR 3.05 (95% CI 1.93-4.80) respectively. An increase in age was associated with HR of 1.05 (95% CI 1.04-1.06) for every one year increase and females had a worse survival than men HR 1.15 (95% CI 1.07-1.27). An increase in ASA score and the presence of IHD, cardiac failure, hypertension, COPD, renal impairment, cerebrovascular disease, PVD, and diabetes were also factors associated with poor long-term survival.

CONCLUSION

The result of this meta-analysis summarises and quantifies unmodifiable risk factors that influence late survival following AAA repair from the best available published evidence. The presence of these factors might assist in clinical decision making during discussion with patients regarding repair.