Stefenon SF, Seman LO, Sopelsa Neto NF, Meyer LH, Mariani VC, Coelho LDS. Group Method of Data Handling Using Christiano-Fitzgerald Random Walk Filter for Insulator Fault Prediction.
SENSORS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023;
23:6118. [PMID:
37447968 DOI:
10.3390/s23136118]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2023] [Revised: 06/26/2023] [Accepted: 06/30/2023] [Indexed: 07/15/2023]
Abstract
Disruptive failures threaten the reliability of electric supply in power branches, often indicated by the rise of leakage current in distribution insulators. This paper presents a novel, hybrid method for fault prediction based on the time series of the leakage current of contaminated insulators. In a controlled high-voltage laboratory simulation, 15 kV-class insulators from an electrical power distribution network were exposed to increasing contamination in a salt chamber. The leakage current was recorded over 28 h of effective exposure, culminating in a flashover in all considered insulators. This flashover event served as the prediction mark that this paper proposes to evaluate. The proposed method applies the Christiano-Fitzgerald random walk (CFRW) filter for trend decomposition and the group data-handling (GMDH) method for time series prediction. The CFRW filter, with its versatility, proved to be more effective than the seasonal decomposition using moving averages in reducing non-linearities. The CFRW-GMDH method, with a root-mean-squared error of 3.44×10-12, outperformed both the standard GMDH and long short-term memory models in fault prediction. This superior performance suggested that the CFRW-GMDH method is a promising tool for predicting faults in power grid insulators based on leakage current data. This approach can provide power utilities with a reliable tool for monitoring insulator health and predicting failures, thereby enhancing the reliability of the power supply.
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