Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a modelling study

Determinants of preventive sexual behaviours among first year university students in Beira city, central Mozambique: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Understanding determinants of preventive sexual behaviours is important for intervention efforts to support these behaviours and, thereby, reduce STIs and HIV burden. In general, there is limited insight into determinants of preventive behaviours among university students in Mozambique. Therefore, this study set out to assess both the prevalence and the determinants of condom use and voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) service use in first year university students.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study in May-September 2021, at the Universidade Católica de Moçambique and the Universidade Licungo, in Beira central Mozambique. We collected data on sociodemographic characteristics, heterosexual relationship experiences and personal determinants posited to be associated with condom use and VCT service use. We included 819 participants, who were selected using a clustered and random sampling design. We used Pearson's chi-square test to compare proportion and estimate the crude odd ratio as the effect size measure at 95% confidence interval, and Confidence Interval-Based Estimation of Relevance to determine correlation coefficients of means and the behaviours of interest at 95% confidence interval.

RESULTS

Condoms were used by 96.1% of male participants and 95.0% of female participants. Additionally, 55.1% of male participants and 57.5% of female participants had previously used VCT services. Condom use was associated with discussing sexuality with mother, and self-efficacy for condom use negotiation, and negatively associated with attitudes that condoms reduce pleasure. VCT service use was associated with discussing sexuality with mother, sexual debut, having a sexual partner, and being in what they consider an important heterosexual relationship. Knowledge, attitude, self-efficacy and subjective norms were weakly associated with VCT service use.

CONCLUSION

In first year university students in Mozambique, reported condom use was high but VCT services were only used by about half of the participants. Interventions aiming to increase VCT service use should focus on improving communication between parents and their adolescent or young adult children, providing personalized risk information, demonstrating that VCT service use is pleasant and non-judgmental, improving users' confidence to schedule a visit, and preparing users for possible positive testing results.

Understanding coping strategies of mothers living with HIV who care for children living with HIV: a qualitative study in Indonesia

HIV infection and its sequelae continue to be a significant challenge among women and their families in developing countries despite the progress that has been made in the prevention and treatment of HIV. This paper describes the strategies employed by mothers with HIV to cope with the various challenges experienced following their own and their children's HIV diagnosis. This paper uses previously unpublished data collected for a study that sought to explore the mental health challenges and coping strategies of mothers living with HIV (MLHIV) (n = 23) who have children living with HIV (CLHIV). Data collection was conducted using in-depth interviews, and participants were recruited using the snowball sampling technique. The concept of meaning-making was used to guide the conceptualisation, analysis, and discussion of the findings. Our analysis showed that meaning-making such as the awareness of how important mothers were to their children/CLHIV and families and religious meaning were used by participants to cope with HIV-related and mental health challenges they faced. The meaning of mother-child relationship which was supported and maintained through the provision of time, attention and fulfillment of CLHIV's needs were also coping strategies employed by these women. Additional coping strategies used were to link their CLHIV to groups and activities of CLHIV. The connections made through these links enabled their children to know other CLHIV, build relationships, and share experiences. These findings are useful evidence that can inform policies and practices and indicate the need for the development of intervention programs that address the needs of MLHIV and their families to cope with HIV-related challenges of their children. Future large-scale studies involving MLHIV who have CLHIV are recommended to have a comprehensive understanding of strategies they employ to cope with HIV-related challenging circumstances and mental health issues that they continue to face.

Subnational HIV incidence trends in Malawi: large, heterogeneous declines across space

The rate of new HIV infections globally has decreased substantially from its peak in the late 1990s, but the epidemic persists and remains highest in many countries in eastern and southern Africa. Previous research hypothesised that, as the epidemic recedes, it will become increasingly concentrated among sub-populations and geographic areas where transmission is the highest and that are least effectively reached by treatment and prevention services. However, empirical data on subnational HIV incidence trends is sparse, and the local transmission rates in the context of effective treatment scale-up are unknown. In this work, we developed a novel Bayesian spatio-temporal epidemic model to estimate adult HIV prevalence, incidence and treatment coverage at the district level in Malawi from 2010 through the end of 2021. We found that HIV incidence decreased in every district of Malawi between 2010 and 2021 but the rate of decline varied by area. National-level treatment coverage more than tripled between 2010 and 2021 and more than doubled in every district. Large increases in treatment coverage were associated with declines in HIV transmission, with 12 districts having incidence-prevalence ratios of 0.03 or less (a previously suggested threshold for epidemic control). Across districts, incidence varied more than HIV prevalence and ART coverage, suggesting that the epidemic is becoming increasingly spatially concentrated. Our results highlight the success of the Malawi HIV treatment programme over the past decade, with large improvements in treatment coverage leading to commensurate declines in incidence. More broadly, we demonstrate the utility of spatially resolved HIV modelling in generalized epidemic settings. By estimating temporal changes in key epidemic indicators at a relatively fine spatial resolution, we were able to directly assess, for the first time, whether the ART scaleup in Malawi resulted in spatial gaps or hotspots. Regular use of this type of analysis will allow HIV program managers to monitor the equity of their treatment and prevention programmes and their subnational progress towards epidemic control.

Long-Term and Low-Level Envelope C2V3 Stimulation by Highly Diverse Virus Isolates Leads to Frequent Development of Broad and Elite Antibody Neutralization in HIV-1-Infected Individuals

A minority of HIV-1-infected patients produce broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs). Identification of viral and host correlates of bNAb production may help develop vaccines. We aimed to characterize the neutralizing response and viral and host-associated factors in Angola, which has one of the oldest, most dynamic, and most diverse HIV-1 epidemics in the world. Three hundred twenty-two HIV-1-infected adults from Angola were included in this retrospective study. Phylogenetic analysis of C2V3C3 env gene sequences was used for virus subtyping. Env-binding antibody reactivity was tested against polypeptides comprising the C2, V3, and C3 regions. Neutralizing-antibody responses were determined against a reference panel of tier 2 Env pseudoviruses in TZM-bl cells; neutralizing epitope specificities were predicted using ClustVis. All subtypes were found, along with untypeable strains and recombinant forms. Notably, 56% of the patients developed cross neutralizing, broadly neutralizing, or elite neutralizing responses. Broad and elite neutralization was associated with longer infection time, subtype C, lower CD4+ T cell counts, higher age, and higher titer of C2V3C3-specific antibodies relative to failure to develop bNAbs. Neutralizing antibodies targeted the V3-glycan supersite in most patients. V3 and C3 regions were significantly less variable in elite neutralizers than in weak neutralizers and nonneutralizers, suggesting an active role of V3C3-directed bNAbs in controlling HIV-1 replication and diversification. In conclusion, prolonged and low-level envelope V3C3 stimulation by highly diverse and ancestral HIV-1 isolates promotes the frequent elicitation of bNAbs. These results provide important clues for the development of an effective HIV-1 vaccine. IMPORTANCE Studies on neutralization by antibodies and their determinants in HIV-1-infected individuals have mostly been conducted in relatively recent epidemics caused by subtype B and C viruses. Results have suggested that elicitation of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) is uncommon. The mechanisms underlying the elicitation of bNAbs are still largely unknown. We performed the first characterization of the plasma neutralizing response in a cohort of HIV-1-infected patients from Angola. Angola is characterized by an old and dynamic epidemic caused by highly diverse HIV-1 variants. Remarkably, more than half of the patients produced bNAbs, mostly targeting the V3-glycan supersite in HIV-1. This was associated with higher age, longer infection time, lower CD4+ T cell counts, subtype C infection, or higher titer of C2V3C3-specific antibodies relative to patients that did not develop bNAbs. These results may help develop the next generation of vaccine candidates for HIV-1.

Promoting HIV-Related Behavioral and Social Science Research Training in Africa: A Case of Uganda

HIV/AIDS is a major contributor to morbidity and mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Several gaps in HIV/AIDS care persist despite advancements in bio-medical care approaches. Socio-behavioral approaches have been identified to have the capacity to plug these gaps. This calls for HIV- related behavioral and social science research (BSSR) capacity building. Adopting BSSR in HIV may provide insights into the HIV care continuum that is contextual and cost-effective and reveal the missing layer in the fight against HIV on the African continent. The Makerere University Behavioral and Social Sciences Research (Mak-BSSR) program has responded to the call to strengthen capacity in BSSR. This commentary is a call to promote, support, and sustain the collaborations needed to integrate behavioral and social science research into HIV in SSA.

Barriers to Accessing HIV Care Services in Host Low and Middle Income Countries: Views and Experiences of Indonesian Male Ex-Migrant Workers Living with HIV

Migrant populations are one of the vulnerable groups to HIV transmission and its consequences. They are also reported to experience delayed entry or linkage into HIV services and have poorer HIV-related health outcomes. This study aimed to understand barriers to accessing HIV care services in host countries among Indonesian, male, former (returned) migrant workers living with HIV. The study was carried out from December 2020 to February 2021. It utilised a qualitative design employing in-depth interviews to collect data from twenty-two returned migrant workers from Eastern Indonesia, recruited using the snowball sampling technique. A qualitative data analysis framework was used to guide a step-by-step analysis of the findings. Findings demonstrated that limited host-country language proficiency, lack of knowledge regarding healthcare systems in host countries and having 'undocumented' worker status were barriers to accessing HIV care services. Data also revealed the unavailability of HIV care services nearby migrants' work locations, long-distance travel to healthcare facilities, and challenges in accessing public transportation as barriers that impeded their access to the services. Other factors limiting the participants' access to HIV services were identified as the transient and mobile nature of migrant work requiring frequent relocation and disrupting work-life stability. Additionally, in lieu of formal HIV services, many participants self-medicated by using over-the-counter herbal or 'traditional' medicines, often because of peer or social group influence regarding the selection of informal treatment options. Recommendations arising from this study demonstrate the need to improve pre-departure information for migrant workers regarding the healthcare system and access procedures in potential host countries. Data from this study also indicate that social services should be available to assist potential migrants to access legal channels for migrant work overseas, to ensure that Indonesian migrants can safely access healthcare services in the countries for which they are providing migrant labour. Future studies to understand barriers to accessing HIV care services among various migrant groups living with HIV are warranted to build evidence for potential social policy change.

Personal experiences following acquiring HIV infection while volunteering in Phase I/II HIV vaccine trials: A qualitative study from Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Participation in HIV vaccine trials is an essential step towards development of an effective preventive vaccine. A Phase I/II HIV vaccine trial enrolls volunteers at low risk of acquiring HIV infection, however a few may still become infected. Understanding the experiences of volunteers who acquired HIV infection while participating in such trials is essential for future research. Here, we describe experiences of HIV infected volunteers in Phase I/II HIV vaccine trials conducted in urban Tanzania.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used a case study design. In-depth interviews were conducted with four participants who became HIV infected during long follow-up visits after completion of vaccination schedules in a Phase I/II trial. Between 3 and 8 years after HIV positive diagnosis, each participant was interviewed at three time points within a two-year interval so as to allow for accumulation of experiences and cross-checking the emerging constructs. Data was analyzed using a qualitative data analysis framework.

RESULTS

Analysis revealed that participation in HIV vaccine trials involves balancing controversies and the spirit of informed decision. The participants declared that they did not acquire HIV from the experimental vaccine. Disclosure of HIV status within the family was gender specific. Men were hesitant to disclose their HIV status to their sexual partners fearing for the consequences. Women's attempt to disclose their HIV status yielded negative reactions from the sexual partners. The acquired knowledge from the HIV vaccine research enabled the participants to cope with the uncertainties and their health status.

CONCLUSIONS

The knowledge acquired during the Phase I/II HIV vaccine trial appears to be an essential resource to cope with uncertainties post research. The HIV vaccine trial implementers need to understand the challenges the volunteers may confront after the trial while coping with their health status. Longitudinal studies are essential to trace the effects of uncertainties to the individual participants.

Understanding the pathways leading to socioeconomic inequalities in HIV testing uptake in 18 sub-Saharan African countries

OBJECTIVE

To better understand the different pathways linking socioeconomic position and HIV testing uptake in 18 sub-Saharan African countries.

DESIGN

We used cross-sectional population-based surveys between 2010 and 2018.

METHODS

Using a potential outcomes framework and the product method, we decomposed the total effect linking wealth and recent (<12 months) HIV testing into direct effects, and indirect effects, via internal (related to individual's ability to perceive need for and to seek care) or external (ability to reach, pay for and engage in healthcare) mediators to calculate the proportion mediated (PM) by each mediator.

RESULTS

High levels of inequalities were observed in nine and 15 countries among women and men, respectively. The mediator indirect effect varied greatly across countries. The PM tended to be higher for internal than for external mediators. For instance, among women, HIV-related knowledge was estimated to mediate up to 12.1% of inequalities in Côte d'Ivoire; and up to 31.5% for positive attitudes towards people with HIV (PWH) in Senegal. For the four external mediators, the PM was systematically below 7%. Similar findings were found when repeating analyses on men for the internal mediators, with higher PM by attitudes towards PWH (up to 39.9% in Senegal).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that wealth-related inequalities in HIV testing may be mediated by internal more than external characteristics, with important variability across countries. Overall, the important heterogeneities in the pathways of wealth-related inequalities in HIV testing illustrate that addressing inequalities requires tailored efforts and upstream interventions.

Traditional Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment and family and social influence as barriers to accessing HIV care services in Belu, Indonesia

Access to HIV care services, including antiretroviral therapy (ART), is essential for improving health outcomes of people living with HIV (PLHIV) and reducing HIV transmission and AIDS-related deaths. As a part of a qualitative study in Belu, this paper describes the use of traditional medicines for HIV treatment and family and social influence as barriers to access to HIV care services among PLHIV. One-on-one in-depth interviews were employed to collect data from 46 PLHIV (26 women and 20 men) and 10 healthcare professionals. They were recruited using the snowball sampling technique. The study information sheets were initially posted on information boards in healthcare facilities. Potential participants who contacted to confirm their participation were recruited for an interview and then asked for help to distribute the information sheets to their eligible colleagues who might be willing to participate. Data analysis was performed using NVivo 12 software and guided by a qualitative data analysis framework. The findings showed that the use of traditional medicines, a well-known cultural practice in Belu, was a barrier to access to HIV care services among PLHIV. The influence of family in determining the use of traditional medicines for HIV treatment, supported by the lack of knowledge of ART, effectiveness of traditional medicines in treating other health issues, and social influence of relatives, neighbours, and friends, were also significant barriers to PLHIV’s access to HIV care services. The findings indicate the need for dissemination of HIV care-related information for PLHIV, family, and community members to increase their knowledge of the service, ART and its function, and to support and improve access to HIV care services especially ART by PLHIV.

How informal healthcare providers improve uptake of HIV testing: qualitative results from a randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

Uganda is HIV-endemic with a prevalence of 5.7%. Lack of epidemic control has been attributed to low engagement with HIV testing. Collaborating with informal healthcare providers, such as traditional healers, has been proposed as a strategy to increase testing uptake. We explored acceptability and implementation of an HIV testing program where traditional healers delivered point-of-care testing and counseling to adults of unknown serostatus (clinicaltrials.gov NCT#03718871).

METHODS

This study was conducted in rural, southwestern Uganda. We interviewed participating traditional healers ( N  = 17) and a purposive sample of trial participants ( N  = 107). Healers were practicing within 10 km of Mbarara township, and 18+ years old. Participants were 18+ years old; sexually active; had received care from participating healers; self-reported not receiving an HIV test in prior 12 months; and not previously diagnosed with HIV infection. Interviews explored perceptions of a healer-delivered HIV testing model and were analyzed following a content-analysis approach.

RESULTS

Most participants were female individuals ( N  = 68, 55%). Healer-delivered HIV testing overcame structural barriers, such as underlying poverty and rural locations that limited use, as transportation was costly and often prohibitive. Additionally, healers were located in villages and communities, which made services more accessible compared with facility-based testing. Participants also considered healers trustworthy and 'confidential'. These qualities explain some preference for healer-delivered HIV testing, in contrast to 'stigmatizing' biomedical settings.

CONCLUSION

Traditional healer-delivered HIV testing was considered more confidential and easily accessible compared with clinic-based testing. Offering services through traditional healers may improve uptake of HIV testing services in rural, medically pluralistic communities.

Mental Health Challenges and the Associated Factors in Women Living with HIV Who Have Children Living with HIV in Indonesia: A Qualitative Study

Women living with HIV (WLHIV) are vulnerable to various mental health challenges. However, there is a paucity of studies globally and in the Indonesian context that have specifically explored mental health challenges among mothers living with HIV who also have children living with HIV (CLHIV). This qualitative study explored mental health challenges and the associated factors in mothers living with HIV who have CLHIV in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. In-depth interviews were employed to collect data from the participants (N = 23) who were recruited using the snowball sampling technique. A qualitative data analysis framework was used to guide the analysis of the findings. The findings showed that the mothers experienced a range of mental health issues due to their own, and their child’s diagnoses of stress, depression, anxiety, fear, sadness, and guilt. Lack of knowledge about HIV, fear of death, shame, not knowing whom to talk with and what to do after their own HIV diagnosis, and the HIV diagnosis of their children were factors that challenged their mental health. Difficulties in dealing with daily life or social activities of their CLHIV, dilemmas in addressing questions and complaints of their CLHIV about HIV treatment, and concerns about the health condition of their CLHIV and how their children cope with any potential negative social impacts also impacted the mothers’ mental health. Social factors such as unsympathetic expressions from friends towards them and their CLHIV and negatively worded religious-related advice from parents and relatives also contributed to their poor mental health. Our findings indicate the need for intervention programs that support mothers living with HIV and their CLHIV. Future large-scale studies involving mothers living with HIV who have CLHIV in Indonesia and other settings globally are needed to obtain a comprehensive understanding of mental health challenges and the associated factors they face.

Psychological and Social Impact of HIV on Women Living with HIV and Their Families in Low- and Middle-Income Asian Countries: A Systematic Search and Critical Review

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection adds a significant burden to women in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), often leading to severe detrimental impact, not only on themselves, but also on their families and communities. Given that more than half of all people living with HIV globally are females (53%), this review seeks to understand the psychological and social impact of HIV infection on Women Living with HIV (WLHIV) and their families in LMICs in Asia, and the interrelationships between one impact and another. A systematic review was conducted to find literature using the following databases: Medline, PsycINFO, CINAL, Emcare, Scopus and ProQuest. Research articles included in this review were selected based on the following inclusion criteria: conducted in LMICs in Asia, published in English language between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2021, had full text available, involved WLHIV (married and unmarried) and explored the psychological and social impacts of HIV on these women and their families. Critical appraisal tools developed by Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) were used to assess the methodological quality of the studies, and thematic narrative synthesis was used to analyse the findings. A total of 17 articles met the inclusion criteria. The review showed that HIV has a range of negative psychological consequences on WLHIV, such as stress, fear, worry, anxiety and depression, as well as social impacts on the women and their families, including stigma, discrimination and family separation. The findings indicate the need for targeted interventions—specific to WLHIV—that address the psychological challenges, stigma and discrimination these women and their families face. These interventions should also incorporate education and sustainable support structures for WLHIV and their families.

Monitoring socioeconomic inequalities across HIV knowledge, attitudes, behaviours and prevention in 18 sub-Saharan African countries

OBJECTIVES

Socioeconomic inequalities in HIV prevention services coverage constitute important barriers to global prevention targets, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We aimed at monitoring these inequalities from population-based survey data in 18 SSA countries between 2010 and 2018.

METHODS

We defined eight HIV indicators aimed at capturing uptake of HIV prevention services among adult participants. Country-specific wealth-related inequalities were measured using the Relative and Slope Index of Inequalities (RII and SII, respectively) and then pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. We compared inequalities between African regions using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test.

RESULTS

The sample consisted of 358 591 participants (66% women). Despite variability between countries and indicators, the meta-analysis revealed significant levels of relative and absolute inequalities in six out of eight indicators: HIV-related knowledge, positive attitudes toward people with HIV (PWH), condom use at last sexual intercourse, participation to prevention of mother-to-child transmission programs, medical male circumcision and recent HIV testing. The largest inequalities were reported in condom use, with condom use reported five times more among the richest versus the poorest [RII = 5.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.79-9.05] and in positive attitudes toward PWH, with a 32-percentage point difference between the richest and poorest (SII = 0.32, 95% CI 0.26-0.39). Conversely, no significant inequalities were observed in multipartnership and HIV seropositivity among youth. Overall, inequalities tended to be larger in West and Central vs. East and Southern African countries.

CONCLUSION

Despite efforts to scale-up HIV-prevention programs, socioeconomic inequalities remain substantial over the continuum of HIV primary and secondary prevention in several SSA countries.

Timely Attendance of the First Antenatal Care among Pregnant Women Aged 15–49 Living with HIV in Juba, South Sudan

Timely attendance of the first antenatal care (ANC) is the period in which pregnant women visit ANC less than four months of pregnancy. There is a paucity of data on timely first ANC attendance and its associated factors among pregnant women living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Juba. The aim of this study was to investigate timely attendance of the first ANC visit among pregnant women living with HIV. Institutional cross-sectional study was conducted in three public health facilities in Juba by convenience sampling from January 2019 to December 2019. Pearson’s chi-squared test was conducted for bivariate analysis and variables with probability values ( $p$ values) less than 5% were considered as statistically significant for multivariable analyses using Fisher’s exact test. At the multivariate level, binary logistic regression analysis was conducted. Out of the 192 participants studied, 27 (14.1%) had timely first ANC attendance as recommended and 165 (85.9%) attended first ANC at four months and above. Distances (adjusted risk ratio [aOR], 7.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.40–36.68), ANC card (aOR, 3.48; 95% CI, 1.17–10.40), waiting time ([aOR], 0.04; 95% CI, 0.01–0.75), and prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) services (aOR, 0.12; 95% CI, 0.03–0.56) were the factors associated with timely first ANC attendance. Health education interventions targeting pregnant women attending ANC at health facilities should focus on increasing knowledge and awareness of the importance of timely first ANC attendance.

Understanding the Evolving Role of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision as a Public Health Strategy in Eastern and Southern Africa: Opportunities and Challenges

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC) has been a cornerstone of HIV prevention in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) and is credited in part for declines in HIV incidence seen in recent years. However, these HIV incidence declines change VMMC cost-effectiveness and how it varies across populations.

RECENT FINDINGS

Mathematical models project continued cost-effectiveness of VMMC in much of ESA despite HIV incidence declines. A key data gap is how demand generation cost differs across age groups and over time as VMMC coverage increases. Additionally, VMMC models usually neglect non-HIV effects of VMMC, such as prevention of other sexually transmitted infections and medical adverse events. While small compared to HIV effects in the short term, these could become important as HIV incidence declines. Evidence to date supports prioritizing VMMC in ESA despite falling HIV incidence. Updated modeling methodologies will become necessary if HIV incidence reaches low levels.

GBD 2019 HIV Collaborators. Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic.

METHODS

To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1-38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78-0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91-1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95-1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58-35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49-42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05-0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76-2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress.

INTERPRETATION

Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

Naomi: a new modelling tool for estimating HIV epidemic indicators at the district level in sub-Saharan Africa

INTRODUCTION

HIV planning requires granular estimates for the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage and unmet need, and new HIV infections by district, or equivalent subnational administrative level. We developed a Bayesian small-area estimation model, called Naomi, to estimate these quantities stratified by subnational administrative units, sex, and five-year age groups.

METHODS

Small-area regressions for HIV prevalence, ART coverage and HIV incidence were jointly calibrated using subnational household survey data on all three indicators, routine antenatal service delivery data on HIV prevalence and ART coverage among pregnant women, and service delivery data on the number of PLHIV receiving ART. Incidence was modelled by district-level HIV prevalence and ART coverage. Model outputs of counts and rates for each indicator were aggregated to multiple geographic and demographic stratifications of interest. The model was estimated in an empirical Bayes framework, furnishing probabilistic uncertainty ranges for all output indicators. Example results were presented using data from Malawi during 2016-2018.

RESULTS

Adult HIV prevalence in September 2018 ranged from 3.2% to 17.1% across Malawi's districts and was higher in southern districts and in metropolitan areas. ART coverage was more homogenous, ranging from 75% to 82%. The largest number of PLHIV was among ages 35 to 39 for both women and men, while the most untreated PLHIV were among ages 25 to 29 for women and 30 to 34 for men. Relative uncertainty was larger for the untreated PLHIV than the number on ART or total PLHIV. Among clients receiving ART at facilities in Lilongwe city, an estimated 71% (95% CI, 61% to 79%) resided in Lilongwe city, 20% (14% to 27%) in Lilongwe district outside the metropolis, and 9% (6% to 12%) in neighbouring Dowa district. Thirty-eight percent (26% to 50%) of Lilongwe rural residents and 39% (27% to 50%) of Dowa residents received treatment at facilities in Lilongwe city.

CONCLUSIONS

The Naomi model synthesizes multiple subnational data sources to furnish estimates of key indicators for HIV programme planning, resource allocation, and target setting. Further model development to meet evolving HIV policy priorities and programme need should be accompanied by continued strengthening and understanding of routine health system data.

Investigating the effect of social support, social capital, and coping on the positive state of mind of Iranian older people with human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome

BACKGROUND

Social resources help to adapt to stress and might positively affect the well-being of individuals with severe conditions like human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS). The present study investigates the effect of social support, social capital, and coping in a positive state of mind of Iranian older people with HIV/AIDS.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted on 160 older people with HIV referred to AIDS clinics in Tehran in 2019. Samples were randomly selected from patients aged 50 years and older. Data were collected using a questionnaire, a positive state of mind, social capital, coping, social support, and a checklist of demographical variables. Data analysis was performed using SPSS software version 21.

RESULTS

A significant positive correlation was found between social support, social capital, coping, education, and a positive state of mind. A significant negative correlation was also found between age, several chronic diseases of the patient, and a positive state of mind. The linear regression results showed that social support, social capital, coping, and education improved the positive state of mind.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on our findings, we believe that social and psychological interventions effectively enhance patients' positive state of mind with HIV and ultimately, improve their quality of life.