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Ledesma JR, Ma J, Zhang M, Basting AVL, Chu HT, Vongpradith A, Novotney A, LeGrand KE, Xu YY, Dai X, Nicholson SI, Stafford LK, Carter A, Ross JM, Abbastabar H, Abdoun M, Abdulah DM, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abrha WA, Abubaker Ali H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Aburuz S, Addo IY, Adepoju AV, Adhikari K, Adnani QES, Adra S, Afework A, Aghamiri S, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad D, Ahmad S, Ahmadzade AM, Ahmed H, Ahmed M, Ahmed A, Akinosoglou K, AL-Ahdal TMA, Alam N, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh MT, Al-Gheethi AAS, Ali A, Ali EA, Ali L, Ali Z, Ali SSS, Allel K, Altaf A, Al-Tawfiq JA, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amani R, Amusa GA, Amzat J, Andrews JR, Anil A, Anwer R, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Artamonov AA, Aruleba RT, Asemahagn MA, Atre SR, Aujayeb A, Azadi D, Azadnajafabad S, Azzam AY, Badar M, Badiye AD, Bagherieh S, Bahadorikhalili S, Baig AA, Banach M, Banik B, Bardhan M, Barqawi HJ, Basharat Z, Baskaran P, Basu S, Beiranvand M, Belete MA, Belew MA, Belgaumi UI, Beloukas A, Bettencourt PJG, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhargava A, Bhat V, Bhatti JS, Bhatti GK, Bikbov B, Bitra VR, Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Bustanji Y, Butt ZA, Camargos P, Cao Y, Carr S, Carvalho F, Cegolon L, Cenderadewi M, Cevik M, Chahine Y, Chattu VK, Ching PR, Chopra H, Chung E, Claassens MM, Coberly K, Cruz-Martins N, Dabo B, Dadana S, Dadras O, Darban I, Darega Gela J, Darwesh AM, Dashti M, Demessa BH, Demisse B, Demissie S, Derese AMA, Deribe K, Desai HD, Devanbu VGC, Dhali A, Dhama K, Dhingra S, Do THP, Dongarwar D, Dsouza HL, Dube J, Dziedzic AM, Ed-Dra A, Efendi F, Effendi DE, Eftekharimehrabad A, Ekadinata N, Ekundayo TC, Elhadi M, Elilo LT, Emeto TI, Engelbert Bain L, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahim A, Feizkhah A, Fetensa G, Fischer F, Gaipov A, Gandhi AP, Gautam RK, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Gebrekidan KG, Ghaffari K, Ghassemi F, Ghazy RM, Goodridge A, Goyal A, Guan SY, Gudeta MD, Guled RA, Gultom NB, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gupta S, Hagins H, Hailu SG, Hailu WB, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Harapan H, Hasan RS, Hassan S, Haubold J, Hezam K, Hong SH, Horita N, Hossain MB, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Huynh HH, Ibitoye SE, Ikuta KS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Islam MR, Ismail NE, Ismail F, Jafarzadeh A, Jakovljevic M, Jalili M, Janodia MD, Jomehzadeh N, Jonas JB, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Kabir Z, Kamble BD, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Kanmodi KK, Kantar RS, Karaye IM, Karimi Behnagh A, Kassa GG, Kaur RJ, Kaur N, Khajuria H, Khamesipour F, Khan YH, Khan MN, Khan Suheb MZ, Khatab K, Khatami F, Kim MS, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Krishan K, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuddus MA, Kulimbet M, Kumar N, Lal DK, Landires I, Latief K, Le TDT, Le TTT, Ledda C, Lee M, Lee SW, Lerango TL, Lim SS, Liu C, Liu X, Lopukhov PD, Luo H, Lv H, Mahajan PB, Mahboobipour AA, Majeed A, Malakan Rad E, Malhotra K, Malik MSA, Malinga LA, Mallhi TH, Manilal A, Martinez-Guerra BA, Martins-Melo FR, Marzo RR, Masoumi-Asl H, Mathur V, Maude RJ, Mehrotra R, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Merza MA, Mestrovic T, Mhlanga L, Misra S, Misra AK, Mithra P, Moazen B, Mohammed H, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Moore CE, Mousavi P, Mulita F, Musaigwa F, Muthusamy R, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi P, Naik GR, Naik G, Nair S, Nair TS, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Negash H, Nguyen DH, Nguyen VT, Niazi RK, Nnaji CA, Nnyanzi LA, Noman EA, Nomura S, Oancea B, Obamiro KO, Odetokun IA, Odo DBO, Odukoya OO, Oh IH, Okereke CO, Okonji OC, Oren E, Ortiz-Brizuela E, Osuagwu UL, Ouyahia A, P A MP, Parija PP, Parikh RR, Park S, Parthasarathi A, Patil S, Pawar S, Peng M, Pepito VCF, Peprah P, Perdigão J, Perico N, Pham HT, Postma MJ, Prabhu ARA, Prasad M, Prashant A, Prates EJS, Rahim F, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmati M, Rajaa S, Ramasamy SK, Rao IR, Rao SJ, Rapaka D, Rashid AM, Ratan ZA, Ravikumar N, Rawaf S, Reddy MMRK, Redwan EMM, Remuzzi G, Reyes LF, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rezahosseini O, Rodrigues M, Roy P, Ruela GDA, Sabour S, Saddik B, Saeed U, Safi SZ, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Sahebkar A, Sahiledengle B, Sahoo SS, Salam N, Salami AA, Saleem S, Saleh MA, Samadi Kafil H, Samadzadeh S, Samodra YL, Sanjeev RK, Saravanan A, Sawyer SM, Selvaraj S, Senapati S, Senthilkumaran S, Shah PA, Shahid S, Shaikh MA, Sham S, Shamshirgaran MA, Shanawaz M, Sharath M, Sherchan SP, Shetty RS, Shirzad-Aski H, Shittu A, Siddig EE, Silva JP, Singh S, Singh P, Singh H, Singh JA, Siraj MS, Siswanto S, Solanki R, Solomon Y, Soriano JB, Sreeramareddy CT, Srivastava VK, Steiropoulos P, Swain CK, Tabuchi T, Tampa M, Tamuzi JJLL, Tat NY, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Teklay G, Tesfaye EG, Tessema B, Thangaraju P, Thapar R, Thum CCC, Ticoalu JHV, Tleyjeh IM, Tobe-Gai R, Toma TM, Tram KH, Udoakang AJ, Umar TP, Umeokonkwo CD, Vahabi SM, Vaithinathan AG, van Boven JFM, Varthya SB, Wang Z, Warsame MSA, Westerman R, Wonde TE, Yaghoubi S, Yi S, Yiğit V, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Zakham F, Zangiabadian M, Zeukeng F, Zhang H, Zhao Y, Zheng P, Zielińska M, Salomon JA, Reiner Jr RC, Naghavi M, Vos T, Hay SI, Murray CJL, Kyu HH. Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Infect Dis 2024:S1473-3099(24)00007-0. [PMID: 38518787 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(24)00007-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2023] [Revised: 12/09/2023] [Accepted: 01/08/2024] [Indexed: 03/24/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020. METHODS We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data. FINDINGS We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths. INTERPRETATION Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Bastos LAVM, Villela PB, Bichara JLP, do Nascimento EM, Bastos ELVM, de B Pereira B, Oliveira GMM. Ischemic heart disease-related mortality in Brazil, 2006 to 2020. A study of multiple causes of death. BMC Public Health 2024; 24:849. [PMID: 38504228 PMCID: PMC10949584 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-024-18162-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2023] [Accepted: 02/20/2024] [Indexed: 03/21/2024] Open
Abstract
CONTEXT Both the aging of the population and the increase in noncommunicable diseases may influence the progression and outcomes culminating in death, changing the evolution of ischemic heart diseases (IHDs) and their associated causes. Using the multiple causes of death method could help understand the magnitude of these relationships and enable better targeting of investments in health. OBJECTIVES To evaluate the mortality from IHD in Brazil between 2006 and 2020 using the method of multiple causes and identify differences in the distribution pattern of IHD mortality by sex and geographic region. METHODS Based on information extracted from death certificates (DCs) obtained from the database of the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (DATASUS), we used the multiple causes method to analyze the causes of death associated with IHD when IHD was defined as the underlying cause of death (UC) and the causes of death listed as the UC when IHD was recorded in any other lines of the DC, from 2006 to 2020, in Brazil. Subsequently, the proportion of these causes of death and differences between sexes and geographic regions were evaluated, with statistical relevance analyzed using the chi-square test, and the dependence between factors illustrated using stacked bar charts and small-world network graphs. RESULTS When IHD was listed as the UC of death, the most frequent associated causes of death were, in descending order of frequency, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), arterial hypertension (AH), chronic ischemic heart disease (CHID), heart failure (HF), and diabetes mellitus (DM). When IHD was mentioned in any line of the DC, the most frequent UCs of death were AMI followed by DM, CIHD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), stroke, dyslipidemia, and, in the year 2020, COVID-19. The most frequent cause of death in women were DM as the UC and associated cause of death, AH as the UC, and CIHD and Alzheimer's disease as associated causes of death, while the most frequent causes of death in men were substance dependence as the UC and associated cause of death, and cancer as an associated cause of death. The most frequent causes of death were DM and stroke in the North and Northeast, dyslipidemia and obesity in the Midwest, Alzheimer's disease in the South and Southeast, and atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD) and COPD in the South. CONCLUSIONS Several diseases - including AMI, AH, CIHD, HF, and DM - were the most frequent associated causes of death when IHD was recorded as the UC. In contrast, AMI, DM, CIHD, COPD, and stroke were the most frequent UCs when IHD was listed as an associated cause of death. The degree of these associations varied between sexes and geographic regions.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Paolo B Villela
- Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Sulo G, Lycke Ellingsen C, Sulo E, Naghavi M, Vollset SE. Heart failure describing the underlying cause of death: a misconception, lack of information on the true underlying causes, or both? Scand J Public Health 2024; 52:152-158. [PMID: 36468773 DOI: 10.1177/14034948221137123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/17/2024]
Abstract
AIM The underlying cause of death represents the most important information on death certificates. Often, conditions that cannot represent a true underlying cause of death are listed as such. This phenomenon affects the quality of vital statistics and results of studies using cause-specific mortality as endpoints. We aimed at exploring the magnitude and factors associated with the use of heart failure to describe the underlying cause of death. METHODS In this cross-sectional, register based study we linked data from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry and the Norwegian Patient Registry. We used logistic regression models to analyse the association between external factors and heart failure listed as the underlying cause of death. RESULTS Heart failure was listed as the underlying cause of death in 3.6% of all deaths. The odds of heart failure increased: (a) by 35% for 5-year increment in age; (b) by 78% for deaths occurring at nursing homes (compared with in-hospital deaths); and (c) by 602% for deaths not followed by an autopsy (compared with those followed by an autopsy). Deceased with a previous hospitalisation with heart failure as the discharge diagnosis had 514% higher odds of having heart failure listed as their underlying cause of death. Of the deceased with heart failure listed as the underlying cause of death, 9.4% did not have any, and 69.2% had only irrelevant additional information for assessing the true underlying cause of death in their death certificates. CONCLUSIONS Heart failure listed as the underlying cause of death was associated with age, place of death, autopsy and previous hospitalisations - all factors that should not influence coding procedures. Better completion of death certificates in accordance with the World Health Organization rules will help reduce the use of heart failure to describe the underlying cause of death.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gerhard Sulo
- Centre for Disease Burden, Division of Mental and Physical Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Norway
- Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Norway
| | - Christian Lycke Ellingsen
- Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Norway
- Department of Pathology, Stavanger University Hospital, Norway
| | - Enxhela Sulo
- Department of Heart Disease, Haukeland University Hospital, Bergen, Norway
| | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, Washington, USA
| | - Stein Emil Vollset
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, Washington, USA
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Servadio JL, Choisy M, Thai PQ, Boni MF. Influenza vaccination allocation in tropical settings under constrained resources. medRxiv 2024:2024.02.08.24302551. [PMID: 38370625 PMCID: PMC10871372 DOI: 10.1101/2024.02.08.24302551] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/20/2024]
Abstract
Influenza virus seasonality, synchronicity, and vaccine supply differ substantially between temperate and tropical settings, and optimal vaccination strategy may differ on this basis. Most national vaccine recommendations focus on high-risk groups, elderly populations, and healthcare workers despite previous analyses demonstrating broad benefits to vaccinating younger high-contact age groups. Here, we parameterized an age-structured non-seasonal asynchronous epidemiological model of influenza virus transmission for a tropical low-income setting. We evaluated timing and age allocation of vaccines across vaccine supplies ranging from 10% to 90% using decade-based age groups. Year-round vaccination was beneficial when comparing to vaccination strategies focused on a particular time of year. When targeting a single age-group for vaccine prioritization, maximum vaccine allocation to the 10-19 high-contact age group minimized annual influenza mortality for all but one vaccine supply. When evaluating across all possible age allocations, optimal strategies always allocated a plurality of vaccines to school-age children (10-19). The converse however was not true as not all strategies allocating a plurality to children aged 10-19 minimized mortality. Allocating a high proportion of vaccine supply to the 10-19 age group is necessary but not sufficient to minimize annual mortality as distribution of remaining vaccine doses to other age groups also needs to be optimized. Strategies focusing on indirect benefits (vaccinating children) showed higher variance in mortality outcomes than strategies focusing on direct benefits (vaccinating the elderly). However, the indirect benefit approaches showed lower mean mortality and lower minimum mortality than vaccination focused on the elderly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joseph L Servadio
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics and Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States
- Department of Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, United States
| | - Marc Choisy
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Pham Quang Thai
- National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam
- School of Preventative Medicine and Public Health, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Maciej F Boni
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics and Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States
- Department of Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, United States
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
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Cirera L, Bañón RM, Maeso S, Molina P, Ballesta M, Chirlaque MD, Salmerón D. Territorial gaps on quality of causes of death statistics over the last forty years in Spain. BMC Public Health 2024; 24:361. [PMID: 38310211 PMCID: PMC10837971 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-17616-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2023] [Accepted: 12/29/2023] [Indexed: 02/05/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The quality of the statistics on causes of death (CoD) does not present consolidated indicators in literature further than the coding group of ill-defined conditions of the International Classification of Diseases. Our objective was to assess the territorial quality of CoD by reliability of the official mortality statistics in Spain over the years 1980-2019. METHODS A descriptive epidemiological design of four decades (1980-, 1990-, 2000-, and 2010-2019) by region (18) and sex was implemented. The CoD cases, age-adjusted rates and ratios (to all-cause) were assigned by reliability to unspecific and ill-defined quality categories. The regional mortality rates were contrasted to the Spanish median by decade and sex by the Comparative Mortality Ratio (CMR) in a Bayesian perspective. Statistical significance was considered when the CMR did not contain the value 1 in the 95% credible intervals. RESULTS Unspecific, ill-defined, and all-cause rates by region and sex decreased over 1980-2019, although they scored higher in men than in women. The ratio of ill-defined CoD decreased in both sexes over these decades, but was still prominent in 4 regions. CMR of ill-defined CoD in both sexes exceeded the Spanish median in 3 regions in all decades. In the last decade, women's CMR significantly exceeded in 5 regions for ill-defined and in 6 regions for unspecific CoD, while men's CMR exceeded in 4 and 2 of the 18 regions, respectively on quality categories. CONCLUSIONS The quality of mortality statistics of causes of death has increased over the 40 years in Spain in both sexes. Quality gaps still remain mostly in Southern regions. Authorities involved might consider to take action and upgrading regional and national death statistics, and developing a systematic medical post-grade training on death certification.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lluís Cirera
- Department of Epidemiology, Regional Health Council, IMIB-Arrixaca. Ronda de Levante 11, 30008, Murcia, Spain
- Spanish Consortium for Research On Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Calle de Melchor Fernández Almagro, 3, 28029, Madrid, Spain
- Department of Health and Social Sciences, University of Murcia, IMIB-Arrixaca, 32. 30120, Buenavista, Spain
| | - Rafael-María Bañón
- Medico-Legal Advisor. Ministry of Justice. Calle San Bernardo, 21. 28071, Madrid, Spain
| | - Sergio Maeso
- National Centre for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of Health (ISCIII), Avenida Monforte de Lemos 5, 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - Puri Molina
- SGAIPE. Departament de Salut, Generalitat de Catalunya. Travessera de Les Corts, 131. 08028, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Mónica Ballesta
- Department of Epidemiology, Regional Health Council, IMIB-Arrixaca. Ronda de Levante 11, 30008, Murcia, Spain
- Department of Health and Social Sciences, University of Murcia, IMIB-Arrixaca, 32. 30120, Buenavista, Spain
| | - María-Dolores Chirlaque
- Department of Epidemiology, Regional Health Council, IMIB-Arrixaca. Ronda de Levante 11, 30008, Murcia, Spain
- Spanish Consortium for Research On Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Calle de Melchor Fernández Almagro, 3, 28029, Madrid, Spain
- Department of Health and Social Sciences, University of Murcia, IMIB-Arrixaca, 32. 30120, Buenavista, Spain
| | - Diego Salmerón
- Spanish Consortium for Research On Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Calle de Melchor Fernández Almagro, 3, 28029, Madrid, Spain.
- Department of Health and Social Sciences, University of Murcia, IMIB-Arrixaca, 32. 30120, Buenavista, Spain.
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Gummidi B, Gautam V, John R, Joshi R, John O, Jha V. CKD is the Major Cause of Death in Uddanam: A Population-Representative Study Using Smart Verbal Autopsy. Kidney Int Rep 2024; 9:108-113. [PMID: 38312788 PMCID: PMC10831392 DOI: 10.1016/j.ekir.2023.10.026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2023] [Revised: 10/03/2023] [Accepted: 10/23/2023] [Indexed: 02/06/2024] Open
Abstract
Introduction Uddanam is an agricultural area with a high burden of chronic kidney disease of unknown etiology (CKDu). Despite reports of many deaths due to CKD in the lay press, the exact contribution of CKD to deaths remains uncertain because most deaths occur outside medical care. Methods We used SmartVA automated verbal autopsy tool to ascertain the cause-specific mortality fractions among a 2419 subject-strong general population cohort of adult subjects in Uddanam between 2018 and 2022. Verbal autopsy interviews were conducted twice with the family members of the deceased. Results A total of 133 deaths were recorded, giving a crude death rate of 5.5%, 10 times higher than that recorded in national surveys. CKD was responsible for 45% of all deaths, followed by ischemic heart disease (15%) and respiratory disease (6%). Conclusion This study confirms CKD as the leading cause of mortality in this high CKD burden area and provides crucial data for public health decision-making and resource allocation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Balaji Gummidi
- The George Institute for Global Health India, UNSW, New Delhi, India
| | - Vaishali Gautam
- The George Institute for Global Health India, UNSW, New Delhi, India
| | - Renu John
- The George Institute for Global Health India, UNSW, New Delhi, India
| | - Rohina Joshi
- The George Institute for Global Health India, UNSW, New Delhi, India
- School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Oommen John
- The George Institute for Global Health India, UNSW, New Delhi, India
- Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
| | - Vivekanand Jha
- The George Institute for Global Health India, UNSW, New Delhi, India
- Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
- Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney
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Figueroa CA, Linhart CL, Dearie C, Fusimalohi LE, Kupu S, Morrell SL, Taylor RJ. Effects of inappropriate cause-of-death certification on mortality from cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus in Tonga. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:2381. [PMID: 38041110 PMCID: PMC10691179 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-17294-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2023] [Accepted: 11/22/2023] [Indexed: 12/03/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus are major health issues in Tonga and other Pacific countries, although mortality levels and trends are unclear. We assess the impacts of cause-of-death certification on coding of CVD and diabetes as underlying causes of death (UCoD). METHODS Tongan records containing cause-of-death data (2001-2018), including medical certificates of cause-of-death (MCCD), had UCoD assigned according to International Classification of Diseases 10th revision (ICD-10) coding rules. Deaths without recorded cause were included to ascertain total mortality. Diabetes and hypertension causes were reallocated from Part 1 of the MCCD (direct cause) to Part 2 (contributory cause) if potentially fatal complications were not recorded, and an alternative UCoD was assigned. Proportional mortality by cause based on the alternative UCoD were applied to total deaths then mortality rates calculated by age and sex using census/intercensal population estimates. CVD and diabetes mortality rates for unaltered and alternative UCoD were compared using Poisson regression. RESULTS Over 2001-18, in ages 35-59 years, alternative CVD mortality was higher than unaltered CVD mortality in men (p = 0.043) and women (p = 0.15); for 2010-18, alternative versus unaltered measures in men were 3.3/103 (95%CI: 3.0-3.7/103) versus 2.9/103 (95%CI: 2.6-3.2/103), and in women were 1.1/103 (95%CI: 0.9-1.3/103) versus 0.9/103 (95%CI: 0.8-1.1/103). Conversely, alternative diabetes mortality rates were significantly lower than the unaltered rates over 2001-18 in men (p < 0.0001) and women (p = 0.013); for 2010-18, these measures in men were 1.3/103 (95%CI: 1.1-1.5/103) versus 1.9/103 (95%CI: 1.6-2.2/103), and in women were 1.4/103 (95%CI: 1.2-1.7/103) versus 1.7/103 (95%CI: 1.5-2.0/103). Diabetes mortality rates increased significantly over 2001-18 in men (unaltered: p < 0.0001; alternative: p = 0.0007) and increased overall in women (unaltered: p = 0.0015; alternative: p = 0.014). CONCLUSIONS Diabetes reporting in Part 1 of the MCCD, without potentially fatal diabetes complications, has led to over-estimation of diabetes, and under-estimation of CVD, as UCoD in Tonga. This indicates the importance of controlling various modifiable risks for atherosclerotic CVD (including stroke) including hypertension, tobacco use, and saturated fat intake, besides obesity and diabetes. Accurate certification of diabetes as a direct cause of death (Part 1) or contributory factor (Part 2) is needed to ensure that valid UCoD are assigned. Examination of multiple cause-of-death data can improve understanding of the underlying causes of premature mortality to better inform health planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carah A Figueroa
- Statistics for Development Division, Pacific Community, Nouméa, New Caledonia.
| | - Christine L Linhart
- School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, UNSW, Sydney, Australia
| | - Catherine Dearie
- School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, UNSW, Sydney, Australia
| | | | | | - Stephen L Morrell
- School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, UNSW, Sydney, Australia
| | - Richard J Taylor
- School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, UNSW, Sydney, Australia
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Stolpe S, Kowall B, Stang A. The Quality of Cause-Of-Death Statistics After the Introduction of the Electronic Coding System Iris/Muse-an Analysis of Mortality Data, 2005-2019. Dtsch Arztebl Int 2023; 120:793-794. [PMID: 38099602 PMCID: PMC10762840 DOI: 10.3238/arztebl.m2023.0190] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2023] [Revised: 08/08/2023] [Accepted: 08/08/2023] [Indexed: 12/18/2023]
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9
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Ho HY, Chen YL. Causes of death in individuals exposed to spousal, parental, and child suicide: a nationwide population-based cohort comparison study. Eur J Epidemiol 2023; 38:1165-1174. [PMID: 37843745 DOI: 10.1007/s10654-023-01055-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2023] [Accepted: 10/02/2023] [Indexed: 10/17/2023]
Abstract
Exposure to suicide is associated with higher mortality, and the health impact varies depending on the types of kinship. However, the moderating role of kinship remains unclear. Therefore, this study aimed to compare causes of death between individuals exposed to spousal, parental, and child suicide to those exposed to natural or unnatural death. In this study, 1,929,872 individuals were enrolled, of whom 1,726,846 individuals were exposed to natural death, 141,206 individuals were exposed to unnatural death, and 61,820 individuals were exposed to suicide. To compare causes of death between kinship, stratified analysis and moderation analysis were conducted by using the Cox proportional hazard model and the cause-specific hazard model. Although higher mortality from specific causes, such as suicide, homicide, and vascular and unspecified dementia, was observed in individuals exposed to suicide compared to those exposed to natural and unnatural death (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.69 to 23.26), we did not observe higher all-cause mortality when compared to those exposed to unnatural death. Some causes of death were moderated by kinship. When compared to unnatural death, parental or spousal suicide was associated with higher mortality from suicide and homicide than child suicide (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.70 to 15.67), and parental suicide was associated with higher mortality from accidents than spousal suicide (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.81). These findings provide an integral understanding of the role of kinship in the impacts of suicide exposure on causes of death.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hsing-Ying Ho
- Department of Healthcare Administration, Asia University, 500, Lioufeng Rd, Wufeng, Taichung, 41354, Taiwan.
- Department of Psychology, Asia University, Taichung, Taiwan.
| | - Yi-Lung Chen
- Department of Healthcare Administration, Asia University, 500, Lioufeng Rd, Wufeng, Taichung, 41354, Taiwan
- Department of Psychology, Asia University, Taichung, Taiwan
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10
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Moberg ME, Hamilton EB, Zeng SM, Bryazka D, Zhao JT, Feldman R, Abate YH, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abdurehman AM, Abedi A, Abu-Gharbieh E, Addo IY, Adepoju AV, Adnani QES, Afzal S, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmed D, Ahmed H, Alem DT, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alimohamadi Y, Ameyaw EK, Amrollahi-Sharifabadi M, Anagaw TF, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Aravkin AY, Athari SS, Atreya A, Azari Jafari A, Badiye AD, Baghcheghi N, Bagherieh S, Bansal H, Barrow A, Bashiri A, Bayileyegn NS, Berhie AY, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Boloor A, Cámera LA, Carvalho F, Carvalho M, Chandrasekar EK, Chang JC, Chattu VK, Chu DT, Coberly K, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai X, Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani R, Das S, Das S, Debela SA, Demessa BH, Deng X, Desta AA, Desye B, Dhimal M, Dibas M, Dsouza HL, Ekholuenetale M, El Sayed I, El-Huneidi W, Enyew DB, Fagbamigbe AF, Fatehizadeh A, Fatima SAF, Fischer F, Franklin RC, Garg T, Gebi TG, Gerema U, Getachew M, Getachew ME, Ghamari F, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Harorani M, Hasani H, Hassan AM, Hassanian-Moghaddam H, Hassen MB, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari M, Heidari-Foroozan M, Heyi DZ, Holla R, Hoogar P, Hossain MS, Hosseini MS, Hostiuc S, Hoveidamanesh S, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Immurana M, Iwu CCD, Jayarajah U, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Kadashetti V, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Kantar RS, Kapoor N, Karaye IM, Katoto PDMC, Khajuria H, Khan EA, Khateri S, Khodamoradi F, Khormali M, Khubchandani J, Kim G, Kisa A, Koohestani HR, Krishan K, Kumar N, Laflamme L, Landires I, Larijani B, Lauriola P, Le TTT, Ledda C, Lee SW, Lim SS, Lobo SW, Lunevicius R, Maharaj SB, Menezes RG, Mentis AFA, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Mirmoeeni S, Misganaw A, Mishra M, Misra S, Mittal C, Mohammadi E, Mokdad AH, Moni MA, Mostafavi E, Mubarik S, Mulita F, Mulualem JA, Mulugeta T, Murray CJL, Myers I, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Nejadghaderi SA, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen VT, Nouraei H, Nzoputam OJ, Okati-Aliabad H, Olufadewa II, Ordak M, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Pandey A, Pant S, Parekh U, Pawar S, Peden AE, Petcu IR, Piel FB, Piracha ZZ, Pourali G, Qattea I, Qureshi MF, Raghav PR, Rahman M, Rahmani S, Ramasubramani P, Ramazanu S, Rawaf S, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Saddik B, Sadeghi M, Sadeghian F, Saeed U, Sahebkar A, Saif Z, Sakshaug JW, Salahi S, Salamati P, Samy AM, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Schwebel DC, Senthilkumaran S, Seylani A, Shaikh MA, Sham S, Shashamo BB, Sheikhi RA, Shetty BSK, Shetty PH, Sibhat MM, Singh H, Singh P, Sisay EA, Solomon Y, Taheri M, Ullah I, Ullah S, Violante FS, Vu LG, Wickramasinghe ND, Yigit A, Yonemoto N, Yousefi Z, Zaman M, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang ZJ, Zheng P, Zoladl M, Steinmetz JD, Vos T, Naghavi M, Ong KL. Global, regional, and national mortality due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning, 2000-2021: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Public Health 2023; 8:e839-e849. [PMID: 37813118 PMCID: PMC10602911 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(23)00185-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2023] [Revised: 08/04/2023] [Accepted: 08/08/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is a largely preventable cause of death that has received insufficient attention. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive global analysis of the demographic, temporal, and geographical patterns of fatal unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning from 2000 to 2021. METHODS As part of the latest Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality was quantified using the GBD cause of death ensemble modelling strategy. Vital registration data and covariates with an epidemiological link to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning informed the estimates of death counts and mortality rates for all locations, sexes, ages, and years included in the GBD. Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying deaths by remaining standard life expectancy at age of death. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning deaths due to occupational injuries and high alcohol use were estimated. FINDINGS In 2021, the global mortality rate due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning was 0·366 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval 0·276-0·415), with 28 900 deaths (21 700-32 800) and 1·18 million YLLs (0·886-1·35) across all ages. Nearly 70% of deaths occurred in males (20 100 [15 800-24 000]), and the 50-54-year age group had the largest number of deaths (2210 [1660-2590]). The highest mortality rate was in those aged 85 years or older with 1·96 deaths (1·38-2·32) per 100 000. Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardised mortality rate at 2·12 deaths (1·98-2·30) per 100 000. Globally, there was a 53·5% (46·2-63·7) decrease in the age-standardised mortality rate from 2000 to 2021, although this decline was not uniform across regions. The overall PAFs for occupational injuries and high alcohol use were 13·6% (11·9-16·0) and 3·5% (1·4-6·2), respectively. INTERPRETATION Improvements in unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality rates have been inconsistent across regions and over time since 2000. Given that unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is almost entirely preventable, policy-level interventions that lower the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning events should be prioritised, such as those that increase access to improved heating and cooking devices, reduce carbon monoxide emissions from generators, and mandate use of carbon monoxide alarms. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Devleesschauwer B, Scohy A, De Pauw R, Gorasso V, Kongs A, Neirynck E, Verduyckt P, Wyper GMA, Van den Borre L. Investigating years of life lost in Belgium, 2004-2019: A comprehensive analysis using a probabilistic redistribution approach. Arch Public Health 2023; 81:160. [PMID: 37626403 PMCID: PMC10464430 DOI: 10.1186/s13690-023-01163-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2023] [Accepted: 07/27/2023] [Indexed: 08/27/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Information on years of life lost (YLL) due to premature mortality is instrumental to assess the fatal impact of disease and necessary for the calculation of Belgian disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). This study presents a novel method to reallocate causes of death data. MATERIALS AND METHODS Causes of death data are provided by Statistics Belgium (Statbel). First, the specific ICD-10 codes that define the underlying cause of death are mapped to the GBD cause list. Second, ill-defined deaths (IDDs) are redistributed to specific ICD-10 codes. A four-step probabilistic redistribution was developed to fit the Belgian context: redistribution using predefined ICD codes, redistribution using multiple causes of death data, internal redistribution, and redistribution to all causes. Finally, we used the GBD 2019 reference life table to calculate Standard Expected Years of Life Lost (SEYLL). RESULTS In Belgium, between 2004 and 2019, IDDs increased from 31 to 34% of all deaths. The majority was redistributed using predefined ICD codes (14-15%), followed by the redistribution using multiple causes of death data (10-12%). The total number of SEYLL decreased from 1.83 to 1.73 million per year. In 2019, the top cause of SEYLL was lung cancer with a share of 8.5%, followed by ischemic heart disease (8.1%) and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (5.7%). All results are available in an online tool https://burden.sciensano.be/shiny/mortality2019/ . CONCLUSION The redistribution process assigned a specific cause of death to all deaths in Belgium, making it possible to investigate the full mortality burden for the first time. A large number of estimates were produced to estimate SEYLL by age, sex, and region for a large number of causes of death and every year between 2004 and 2019. These estimates are important stepping stones for future investigations on Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) in Belgium.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brecht Devleesschauwer
- Service Health Information, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Sciensano, Rue Juliette Wytsman 14, Brussels, 1050, Belgium.
- Department of Translational Physiology, Infectiology and Public Health, Ghent University, Merelbeke, Belgium.
| | - Aline Scohy
- Service Health Information, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Sciensano, Rue Juliette Wytsman 14, Brussels, 1050, Belgium
| | - Robby De Pauw
- Service Health Information, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Sciensano, Rue Juliette Wytsman 14, Brussels, 1050, Belgium
- Department of Rehabilitation Sciences, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Vanessa Gorasso
- Service Health Information, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Sciensano, Rue Juliette Wytsman 14, Brussels, 1050, Belgium
- Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Anne Kongs
- Department of Care, Flemish Public Administration, Brussels, Belgium
| | | | - Peter Verduyckt
- Brussels-Capital Health and Social Observatory, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Grant M A Wyper
- Place and Wellbeing Directorate, Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, UK
- School of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Laura Van den Borre
- Service Health Information, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Sciensano, Rue Juliette Wytsman 14, Brussels, 1050, Belgium
- Interface Demography, Department of Sociology, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
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12
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Mah SM, Rosella LC, Kivimäki M, Carmeli C. Overcrowded housing during adolescence and future risk of premature mortality: a 28-year follow-up of 556,191 adolescents from Switzerland. Lancet Reg Health Eur 2023; 31:100667. [PMID: 37388943 PMCID: PMC10300403 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100667] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2023] [Revised: 05/24/2023] [Accepted: 05/25/2023] [Indexed: 07/01/2023]
Abstract
Background Few large-scale studies have examined the health impacts of overcrowded housing in European countries. The aim of this study was to assess whether household crowding during adolescence increases the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Switzerland. Methods Study participants were 556,191 adolescents aged 10-19 years at the 1990 census from the Swiss National Cohort. Household crowding at baseline was measured as the ratio between the number of persons living in the household and the number of available rooms, categorized as none (ratio ≤ 1), moderate (1 < ratio ≤ 1.5), and severe (ratio > 1.5). Participants were linked to administrative mortality records through 2018 and followed for premature mortality from all causes, cardiometabolic disease and self-harm or substance use. Cumulative risk differences between ages 10 and 45 were standardized by parental occupation, residential area, permit status and household type. Findings Of the sample, 19% lived in moderately and 5% lived in severely crowded households. During an average follow-up of 23 years, 9766 participants died. Cumulative risk of death from all causes was 2359 (95% compatibility intervals: 2296-2415) per 100,000 persons when living in non-crowded households. Living in moderately crowded households led to 99 additional deaths (-63 to 256) per 100,000 persons and living in severely crowded households 258 additional deaths (-37 to 607) per 100,000 persons. The effect of crowding on mortality from cardiometabolic diseases, self-harm or substance use was negligible. Interpretation Excess risk of premature mortality in adolescents living in overcrowded households appears to be small or negligible in Switzerland. Funding University of Fribourg Scholarship Programme for foreign post-doctoral researchers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah M. Mah
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Laura C. Rosella
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Mika Kivimäki
- UCL Brain Sciences, University College London, London, UK
- Clinicum, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Cristian Carmeli
- Population Health Laboratory (#PopHealthLab), University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
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Calais-Ferreira L, Young JT, Francis K, Willoughby M, Pearce L, Clough A, Spittal MJ, Brown A, Borschmann R, Sawyer SM, Patton GC, Kinner SA. Non-communicable disease mortality in young people with a history of contact with the youth justice system in Queensland, Australia: a retrospective, population-based cohort study. Lancet Public Health 2023; 8:e600-e609. [PMID: 37516476 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(23)00144-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2023] [Revised: 05/15/2023] [Accepted: 07/04/2023] [Indexed: 07/31/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Young people who have had contact with the criminal justice system are at increased risk of early death, especially from injuries. However, deaths due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in this population remain poorly described. We aimed to estimate mortality due to NCDs in people with a history of involvement with the youth justice system, compare NCD mortality rates in this population with those in the general population, and characterise demographic and justice-related factors associated with deaths caused by NCDs in people with a history of contact with the youth justice system. METHODS In this retrospective, population-based cohort study (the Youth Justice Mortality [YJ-Mort] study), we included all people aged 10-18 years (at baseline) charged with a criminal offence in Queensland, Australia, between June 30, 1993, and July 1, 2014. We probabilistically linked youth justice records with adult correctional records and national death records up to Jan 31, 2017. Indigenous status was ascertained from youth justice and adult correctional records, with individuals identified as Indigenous in either source classified as Indigenous in the final dataset. We estimated crude mortality rates and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) for comparisons with data from the Australian general population. We identified risk factors for NCD deaths using competing-risks regression. FINDINGS Of 48 670 individuals aged 10-18 years (at baseline) charged with a criminal offence in Queensland, Australia, between June 30, 1993, and July 1, 2014, 11 897 (24·4%) individuals were female, 36 773 (75·6%) were male, and 13 250 (27·2%) were identified as identified as Indigenous. The median age at first contact with the youth justice system was 15 years (IQR 14-16), the median follow-up time was 13·4 years (8·4-18·4), and the median age at the end of the study was 28·6 years (23·6-33·6). Of 1431 deaths, 932 (65·1%) had a known and attributed cause, and 121 (13·0%) of these were caused by an NCD. The crude mortality rate from NCDs was 18·5 (95% CI 15·5-22·1) per 100 000 person-years among individuals with a history of involvement with the youth justice system, which was higher than among the age-matched and sex-matched Australian general population (SMR 1·67 [1·39-1·99]). Two or more admissions to adult custody (compared with none; adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratio 2·09 [1·36-3·22]), and up to 52 weeks in adult custody (compared with none; 1·98 [1·18-3·32]) was associated with NCD death. INTERPRETATION Young people with a history of contact with the justice system are at increased risk of death from NCDs compared with age-matched and sex-matched peers in the general Australian population. Reducing youth incarceration and providing young people's rights to access clinical, preventive, and restorative services should be a priority. FUNDING National Health and Medical Research Council.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucas Calais-Ferreira
- Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute and Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Centre for Mental Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Justice Health Unit, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
| | - Jesse T Young
- Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute and Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Population and Global Health, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; National Drug Research Institute, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia; Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Kate Francis
- Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute and Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, and Department of Paediatrics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Melissa Willoughby
- Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute and Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Justice Health Unit, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Lindsay Pearce
- Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute and Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Alan Clough
- College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD, Australia
| | - Matthew J Spittal
- Centre for Mental Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Alex Brown
- National Centre for Indigenous Genomics, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia; Telethon Kids Institute, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Rohan Borschmann
- Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute and Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Centre for Mental Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia; Department of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Susan M Sawyer
- Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute and Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, and Department of Paediatrics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - George C Patton
- Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute and Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, and Department of Paediatrics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Stuart A Kinner
- Centre for Adolescent Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute and Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Justice Health Unit, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia; Griffith Criminology Institute, Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
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Song J, Kang S, Ryff CD. Unpacking Psychological Vulnerabilities in Deaths of Despair. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2023; 20:6480. [PMID: 37569020 PMCID: PMC10418686 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20156480] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2023] [Revised: 07/14/2023] [Accepted: 07/17/2023] [Indexed: 08/13/2023]
Abstract
Recent demographic findings show increased rates of death due to suicide, drug addictions, and alcoholism among midlife white adults of lower socioeconomic status (SES). These have been described as "deaths of despair" though little research has directly assessed psychological vulnerabilities. This study used longitudinal data from the Midlife in the U.S. (MIDUS) study to investigate whether low levels of eudaimonic and hedonic well-being predict increased risk of deaths of despair compared to other leading causes of death (cancer, heart disease). The investigation focused on 695 reported deaths with cause of death information obtained from 2004 to 2022 via NDI Plus. Key questions were whether risk for deaths due to despair (suicide, drug addiction, alcoholism) compared to deaths due to cancer or heart disease were differentially predicted by deficiencies in well-being, after adjusting for sociodemographic variables. Low levels of purpose in life, positive relations with others, personal growth and positive affect predicted significantly greater likelihood of deaths of despair compared to deaths due to heart disease, with such patterns prominent among better-educated adults. The findings bring attention to ongoing intervention efforts to improve psychological well-being.
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Ong KL, Stafford LK, McLaughlin SA, Boyko EJ, Vollset SE, Smith AE, Dalton BE, Duprey J, Cruz JA, Hagins H, Lindstedt PA, Aali A, Abate YH, Abate MD, Abbasian M, Abbasi-Kangevari Z, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abd ElHafeez S, Abd-Rabu R, Abdulah DM, Abdullah AYM, Abedi V, Abidi H, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Zaid A, Adane TD, Adane DE, Addo IY, Adegboye OA, Adekanmbi V, Adepoju AV, Adnani QES, Afolabi RF, Agarwal G, Aghdam ZB, Agudelo-Botero M, Aguilera Arriagada CE, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad D, Ahmad R, Ahmad S, Ahmad A, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi K, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed LA, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Akinyemi RO, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan SM, AL-Ahdal TMA, Alalwan TA, Al-Aly Z, AlBataineh MT, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Alemi S, Ali H, Alinia T, Aljunid SM, Almustanyir S, Al-Raddadi RM, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare F, Ameyaw EK, Amiri S, Amusa GA, Andrei CL, Anjana RM, Ansar A, Ansari G, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Arifin H, Arkew M, Armocida B, Ärnlöv J, Artamonov AA, Arulappan J, Aruleba RT, Arumugam A, Aryan Z, Asemu MT, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Askari E, Asmelash D, Astell-Burt T, Athar M, Athari SS, Atout MMW, Avila-Burgos L, Awaisu A, Azadnajafabad S, B DB, Babamohamadi H, Badar M, Badawi A, Badiye AD, Baghcheghi N, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Bah S, Bahadory S, Bai R, Baig AA, Baltatu OC, Baradaran HR, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Barengo NC, Bärnighausen TW, Barone MTU, Barone-Adesi F, Barrow A, Bashiri H, Basiru A, Basu S, Basu S, Batiha AMM, Batra K, Bayih MT, Bayileyegn NS, Behnoush AH, Bekele AB, Belete MA, Belgaumi UI, Belo L, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhe K, Berhie AY, Bhaskar S, Bhat AN, Bhatti JS, Bikbov B, Bilal F, Bintoro BS, Bitaraf S, Bitra VR, Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, Bodolica V, Boloor A, Brauer M, Brazo-Sayavera J, Brenner H, Butt ZA, Calina D, Campos LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao Y, Cao C, Car J, Carvalho M, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Cerin E, Chadwick J, Chandrasekar EK, Chanie GS, Charan J, Chattu VK, Chauhan K, Cheema HA, Chekol Abebe E, Chen S, Cherbuin N, Chichagi F, Chidambaram SB, Cho WCS, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury R, Chowdhury EK, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Chung SC, Coberly K, Columbus A, Contreras D, Cousin E, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Cuschieri S, Dabo B, Dadras O, Dai X, Damasceno AAM, Dandona R, Dandona L, Das S, Dascalu AM, Dash NR, Dashti M, Dávila-Cervantes CA, De la Cruz-Góngora V, Debele GR, Delpasand K, Demisse FW, Demissie GD, Deng X, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deo SV, Dervišević E, Desai HD, Desale AT, Dessie AM, Desta F, Dewan SMR, Dey S, Dhama K, Dhimal M, Diao N, Diaz D, Dinu M, Diress M, Djalalinia S, Doan LP, Dongarwar D, dos Santos Figueiredo FW, Duncan BB, Dutta S, Dziedzic AM, Edinur HA, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, Elgendy IY, Elhadi M, El-Huneidi W, Elmeligy OAA, Elmonem MA, Endeshaw D, Esayas HL, Eshetu HB, Etaee F, Fadhil I, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahim A, Falahi S, Faris MEM, Farrokhpour H, Farzadfar F, Fatehizadeh A, Fazli G, Feng X, Ferede TY, Fischer F, Flood D, Forouhari A, Foroumadi R, Foroutan Koudehi M, Gaidhane AM, Gaihre S, Gaipov A, Galali Y, Ganesan B, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gautam RK, Gebrehiwot M, Gebrekidan KG, Gebremeskel TG, Getacher L, Ghadirian F, Ghamari SH, Ghasemi Nour M, Ghassemi F, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Gopalani SV, Guadie HA, Guan SY, Gudayu TW, Guimarães RA, Guled RA, Gupta R, Gupta K, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gyawali B, Haddadi R, Hadi NR, Haile TG, Hajibeygi R, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halwani R, Hamidi S, Hankey GJ, Hannan MA, Haque S, Harandi H, Harlianto NI, Hasan SMM, Hasan SS, Hasani H, Hassanipour S, Hassen MB, Haubold J, Hayat K, Heidari G, Heidari M, Hessami K, Hiraike Y, Holla R, Hossain S, Hossain MS, Hosseini MS, Hosseinzadeh M, Hosseinzadeh H, Huang J, Huda MN, Hussain S, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Ikeda N, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Inbaraj LR, Iqbal A, Islam SMS, Islam RM, Ismail NE, Iso H, Isola G, Itumalla R, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Iyamu IO, Iyasu AN, Jacob L, Jafarzadeh A, Jahrami H, Jain R, Jaja C, Jamalpoor Z, Jamshidi E, Janakiraman B, Jayanna K, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jayawardena R, Jebai R, Jeong W, Jin Y, Jokar M, Jonas JB, Joseph N, Joseph A, Joshua CE, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabthymer RH, Kadashetti V, Kahe F, Kalhor R, Kandel H, Karanth SD, Karaye IM, Karkhah S, Katoto PDMC, Kaur N, Kazemian S, Kebede SA, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khan MAB, Khan M, Khan A, Khanal S, Khatatbeh MM, Khater AM, Khateri S, khorashadizadeh F, Khubchandani J, Kibret BG, Kim MS, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kivimäki M, Kolahi AA, Komaki S, Kompani F, Koohestani HR, Korzh O, Kostev K, Kothari N, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Krishnamoorthy Y, Kuate Defo B, Kuddus M, Kuddus MA, Kumar R, Kumar H, Kundu S, Kurniasari MD, Kuttikkattu A, La Vecchia C, Lallukka T, Larijani B, Larsson AO, Latief K, Lawal BK, Le TTT, Le TTB, Lee SWH, Lee M, Lee WC, Lee PH, Lee SW, Lee SW, Legesse SM, Lenzi J, Li Y, Li MC, Lim SS, Lim LL, Liu X, Liu C, Lo CH, Lopes G, Lorkowski S, Lozano R, Lucchetti G, Maghazachi AA, Mahasha PW, Mahjoub S, Mahmoud MA, Mahmoudi R, Mahmoudimanesh M, Mai AT, Majeed A, Majma Sanaye P, Makris KC, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Mallhi TH, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Mansouri B, Marateb HR, Mardi P, Martini S, Martorell M, Marzo RR, Masoudi R, Masoudi S, Mathews E, Maugeri A, Mazzaglia G, Mekonnen T, Meshkat M, Mestrovic T, Miao Jonasson J, Miazgowski T, Michalek IM, Minh LHN, Mini GK, Miranda JJ, Mirfakhraie R, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari M, Misganaw A, Misgina KH, Mishra M, Moazen B, Mohamed NS, Mohammadi E, Mohammadi M, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadshahi M, Mohseni A, Mojiri-forushani H, Mokdad AH, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Moniruzzaman M, Mons U, Montazeri F, Moodi Ghalibaf A, Moradi Y, Moradi M, Moradi Sarabi M, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Morze J, Mossialos E, Mostafavi E, Mueller UO, Mulita F, Mulita A, Murillo-Zamora E, Musa KI, Mwita JC, Nagaraju SP, Naghavi M, Nainu F, Nair TS, Najmuldeen HHR, Nangia V, Nargus S, Naser AY, Nassereldine H, Natto ZS, Nauman J, Nayak BP, Ndejjo R, Negash H, Negoi RI, Nguyen HTH, Nguyen DH, Nguyen PT, Nguyen VT, Nguyen HQ, Niazi RK, Nigatu YT, Ningrum DNA, Nizam MA, Nnyanzi LA, Noreen M, Noubiap JJ, Nzoputam OJ, Nzoputam CI, Oancea B, Odogwu NM, Odukoya OO, Ojha VA, Okati-Aliabad H, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Okwute PG, Olufadewa II, Onwujekwe OE, Ordak M, Ortiz A, Osuagwu UL, Oulhaj A, Owolabi MO, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Palladino R, Panagiotakos D, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Pandey A, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pantea Stoian AM, Pardhan S, Parekh T, Parekh U, Pasovic M, Patel J, Patel JR, Paudel U, Pepito VCF, Pereira M, Perico N, Perna S, Petcu IR, Petermann-Rocha FE, Podder V, Postma MJ, Pourali G, Pourtaheri N, Prates EJS, Qadir MMF, Qattea I, Raee P, Rafique I, Rahimi M, Rahimifard M, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MO, Rahman MA, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rahman MM, Rahmani M, Rahmani S, Rahmanian V, Rahmawaty S, Rahnavard N, Rajbhandari B, Ram P, Ramazanu S, Rana J, Rancic N, Ranjha MMAN, Rao CR, Rapaka D, Rasali DP, Rashedi S, Rashedi V, Rashid AM, Rashidi MM, Ratan ZA, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Redwan EMM, Remuzzi G, Rengasamy KRR, Renzaho AMN, Reyes LF, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rezazadeh H, Riahi SM, Rias YA, Riaz M, Ribeiro D, Rodrigues M, Rodriguez JAB, Roever L, Rohloff P, Roshandel G, Roustazadeh A, Rwegerera GM, Saad AMA, Saber-Ayad MM, Sabour S, Sabzmakan L, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Saeed U, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Safi S, Safi SZ, Saghazadeh A, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Sahebkar A, Sahoo SS, Sahoo H, Saif-Ur-Rahman KM, Sajid MR, Salahi S, Salahi S, Saleh MA, Salehi MA, Salomon JA, Sanabria J, Sanjeev RK, Sanmarchi F, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarasmita MA, Sargazi S, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sawhney M, Schlaich MP, Schmidt MI, Schuermans A, Seidu AA, Senthil Kumar N, Sepanlou SG, Sethi Y, Seylani A, Shabany M, Shafaghat T, Shafeghat M, Shafie M, Shah NS, Shahid S, Shaikh MA, Shanawaz M, Shannawaz M, Sharfaei S, Shashamo BB, Shiri R, Shittu A, Shivakumar KM, Shivalli S, Shobeiri P, Shokri F, Shuval K, Sibhat MM, Silva LMLR, Simpson CR, Singh JA, Singh P, Singh S, Siraj MS, Skryabina AA, Sohag AAM, Soleimani H, Solikhah S, Soltani-Zangbar MS, Somayaji R, Sorensen RJD, Starodubova AV, Sujata S, Suleman M, Sun J, Sundström J, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei SM, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabish M, Taheri M, Taheri E, Taki E, Tamuzi JJLL, Tan KK, Tat NY, Taye BT, Temesgen WA, Temsah MH, Tesler R, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Thapa R, Tharwat S, Thomas N, Ticoalu JHV, Tiyuri A, Tonelli M, Tovani-Palone MR, Trico D, Trihandini I, Tripathy JP, Tromans SJ, Tsegay GM, Tualeka AR, Tufa DG, Tyrovolas S, Ullah S, Upadhyay E, Vahabi SM, Vaithinathan AG, Valizadeh R, van Daalen KR, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Vaziri S, Verma MV, Verras GI, Vo DC, Wagaye B, Waheed Y, Wang Z, Wang Y, Wang C, Wang F, Wassie GT, Wei MYW, Weldemariam AH, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe ND, Wu Y, Wulandari RDWI, Xia J, Xiao H, Xu S, Xu X, Yada DY, Yang L, Yatsuya H, Yesiltepe M, Yi S, Yohannis HK, Yonemoto N, You Y, Zaman SB, Zamora N, Zare I, Zarea K, Zarrintan A, Zastrozhin MS, Zeru NG, Zhang ZJ, Zhong C, Zhou J, Zielińska M, Zikarg YT, Zodpey S, Zoladl M, Zou Z, Zumla A, Zuniga YMH, Magliano DJ, Murray CJL, Hay SI, Vos T. Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2023; 402:203-234. [PMID: 37356446 PMCID: PMC10364581 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01301-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 191] [Impact Index Per Article: 191.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/27/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. METHODS Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. FINDINGS In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. INTERPRETATION Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Chi YC, Chu WM, Chang HY, Lu TH. International Variations in Dementia and Alzheimer Disease Diagnosis and Certification Habits and Their Associations With Dementia and Alzheimer Disease Mortality: A Cross-Sectional Study of 38 Countries. Alzheimer Dis Assoc Disord 2023; 37:215-221. [PMID: 37615486 DOI: 10.1097/wad.0000000000000573] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2023] [Accepted: 07/03/2023] [Indexed: 08/25/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To examine international variations in national diagnosis and certification habits prefer recording dementia (D) versus Alzhiemer disease (AD) as the underlying cause of death (UCOD) and their associations with mortality rates of dementia and AD. METHODS We calculated proportions of D/D+AD and AD/D+AD deaths as proxies of national diagnosis and certification habits. Pearson correlation coefficients (r) were estimated to assess the associations of proportions with the mortality rates of dementia or AD among adults aged 75 to 84 years across 38 countries. RESULTS The countries with a high preference for recording dementia as the UCOD were Taiwan and Latvia with proportion of D/D+AD deaths of 92% and 88%, respectively, and those with a high preference for recording AD as the UCOD were Slovenia, Turkey, and Poland with proportion of AD/D+AD deaths of 100%, 99%, and 89%, respectively. The r values for the proportions and mortality rate for dementia and AD were 0.67 (95% CI: 0.44-0.81) and 0.46 (95% CI: 0.16-0.68), respectively. CONCLUSION We identified a small number of countries with obvious natonal diagnosis and certification habits preferring dementia or AD and had moderate effects on international variations in the mortality rates of dementia and AD.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ying-Chen Chi
- Department of Healthcare Information & Management, School of Health Technology, Ming Chuan University, Taoyuan
| | - Wei-Min Chu
- Department of Family Medicine, Taichung Veterans General Hospital
- Department of Post-Baccalaureate Medicine, College of Medicine, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung
- School of Medicine, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei
| | - Hsin-Yun Chang
- Department of Family Medicine, Tainan Hospital, Ministry of Health and Welfare
- Institute of Allied Health Sciences
- Department of Family Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, Tainan, Taiwan
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Tak YW, Han JH, Park YJ, Kim DH, Oh JS, Lee Y. Examining Final-Administered Medication as a Measure of Data Quality: A Comparative Analysis of Death Data with the Central Cancer Registry in Republic of Korea. Cancers (Basel) 2023; 15:3371. [PMID: 37444480 DOI: 10.3390/cancers15133371] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2023] [Revised: 06/21/2023] [Accepted: 06/26/2023] [Indexed: 07/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Death is a crucial outcome in retrospective cohort studies, serving as a criterion for analyzing mortality in a database. This study aimed to assess the quality of extracted death data and investigate the potential of the final-administered medication as a variable to quantify accuracy for the validation dataset. Electronic health records from both an in-hospital and the Korean Central Cancer Registry were used for this study. The gold standard was established by examining the differences between the dates of in-hospital deaths and cancer-registered deaths. Cosine similarity was employed to quantify the final-administered medication similarities between the gold standard and other cohorts. The gold standard was determined as patients who died in the hospital after 2006 and whose final hospital visit/discharge date and death date differed by 0 or 1 day. For all three criteria-(a) cancer stage, (b) cancer type, and (c) type of final visit-there was a positive correlation between mortality rates and the similarities of the final-administered medication. This study introduces a measure that can provide additional accurate information regarding death and differentiates the reliability of the dataset.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yae Won Tak
- Department of Information Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul 05505, Republic of Korea
| | - Jeong Hyun Han
- Department of Information Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul 05505, Republic of Korea
| | - Yu Jin Park
- Medical Information-Management Team, Asan Medical Center, Seoul 05505, Republic of Korea
| | - Do-Hoon Kim
- Medical Big Data Research Center, Kyungpook National University Hospital, Daegu 41944, Republic of Korea
| | - Ji Seon Oh
- Department of Information Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul 05505, Republic of Korea
| | - Yura Lee
- Department of Information Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul 05505, Republic of Korea
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Rios-Blancas MJ, Pando-Robles V, Razo C, Carcamo CP, Mendoza W, Pacheco-Barrios K, Miranda JJ, Lansingh VC, Demie TG, Saha M, Okonji OC, Yigit A, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Chacón-Uscamaita PR, Bernabe E, Culquichicon C, Chirinos-Caceres JL, Cárdenas R, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Barrera FJ, Quintanilla BPA, Shorofi SA, Wickramasinghe ND, Ferreira N, Almidani L, Gupta VK, Karimi H, Alayu DS, Benziger CP, Fukumoto T, Mostafavi E, Redwan EMM, Gebrehiwot M, Khatab K, Koyanagi A, Krapp F, Lee S, Noori M, Qattea I, Rosenthal VD, Sakshaug JW, Wagaye B, Zare I, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Murillo-Zamora E, Vervoort D, Silva DAS, Oulhaj A, Herrera-Serna BY, Mehra R, Amir-Behghadami M, Adib N, Cortés S, Dang AK, Nguyen BT, Mokdad AH, Hay SI, Murray CJL, Lozano R, García PJ. Estimating mortality and disability in Peru before the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of the Disease Study 2019. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1189861. [PMID: 37427272 PMCID: PMC10325574 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1189861] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2023] [Accepted: 05/25/2023] [Indexed: 07/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Estimating and analyzing trends and patterns of health loss are essential to promote efficient resource allocation and improve Peru's healthcare system performance. Methods Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (2019), we assessed mortality and disability in Peru from 1990 to 2019. We report demographic and epidemiologic trends in terms of population, life expectancy at birth (LE), mortality, incidence, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the major diseases and risk factors in Peru. Finally, we compared Peru with 16 countries in the Latin American (LA) region. Results The Peruvian population reached 33.9 million inhabitants (49.9% women) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, LE at birth increased from 69.2 (95% uncertainty interval 67.8-70.3) to 80.3 (77.2-83.2) years. This increase was driven by the decline in under-5 mortality (-80.7%) and mortality from infectious diseases in older age groups (+60 years old). The number of DALYs in 1990 was 9.2 million (8.5-10.1) and reached 7.5 million (6.1-9.0) in 2019. The proportion of DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increased from 38.2% in 1990 to 67.9% in 2019. The all-ages and age-standardized DALYs rates and YLLs rates decreased, but YLDs rates remained constant. In 2019, the leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), ischemic heart disease, road injuries, and low back pain. The leading risk factors associated with DALYs in 2019 were undernutrition, high body mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and air pollution. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Peru experienced one of the highest LRIs-DALYs rates in the LA region. Conclusion In the last three decades, Peru experienced significant improvements in LE and child survival and an increase in the burden of NCDs and associated disability. The Peruvian healthcare system must be redesigned to respond to this epidemiological transition. The new design should aim to reduce premature deaths and maintain healthy longevity, focusing on effective coverage and treatment of NCDs and reducing and managing the related disability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas
- School of Public Health of Mexico, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico
- Carlos Slim Foundation, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Victoria Pando-Robles
- Infectious Disease Research Center, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico
| | - Christian Razo
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Cesar P. Carcamo
- School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Walter Mendoza
- Peru Country Office, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Lima, Peru
| | - Kevin Pacheco-Barrios
- Spaulding Rehabilitation Hospital, Harvard University, Boston, MA, United States
- Universidad San Ignacio de Loyola (University of Saint Ignatius of Loyola), Lima, Peru
| | - J. Jaime Miranda
- CRONICAS Centre of Excellence in Chronic Diseases, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia (Cayetano Heredia Peruvian University), Lima, Peru
- Department of Medicine, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia (Cayetano Heredia Peruvian University), Lima, Peru
| | - Van Charles Lansingh
- HelpMeSee, New York, NY, United States
- Mexican Institute of Ophthalmology, Queretaro, Mexico
| | - Takele Gezahegn Demie
- School of Public Health, St. Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Manika Saha
- Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Deakin University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Department of Human-Centred Computing, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | | | - Arzu Yigit
- Department of Health Management, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi (Süleyman Demirel University), Isparta, Türkiye
| | - Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado
- School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Pamela R. Chacón-Uscamaita
- Emerge, Emerging Diseases and Climate Change Research Unit, School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Eduardo Bernabe
- Faculty of Dentistry, Oral and Craniofacial Sciences, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Carlos Culquichicon
- Universidad Privada Norbert Wiener, Centro de Investigación Epidemiológica en Salud Global, Lima, Peru
| | | | - Rosario Cárdenas
- Department of Health Care, Metropolitan Autonomous University, Mexico City, Mexico
| | | | | | | | - Seyed Afshin Shorofi
- Medical-Surgical Nursing, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
- College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | | | - Nuno Ferreira
- Department of Social Sciences, University of Nicosia, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Louay Almidani
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Doheny Image Reading and Research Lab (DIRRL) - Doheny Eye Institute, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States
| | - Vivek Kumar Gupta
- Faculty of Medicine Health and Human Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Hanie Karimi
- School of Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Daniel Shewaye Alayu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | | | | | - Ebrahim Mostafavi
- Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, United States
- Stanford Cardiovascular Institute, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, United States
| | - Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan
- Department Biological Sciences, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Egypt
- Department of Protein Research, Research and Academic Institution, Alexandria, Egypt
| | - Mesfin Gebrehiwot
- Department of Environmental Health, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia
| | - Khaled Khatab
- Health and Wellbeing, Sheffield Hallam University, Sheffield, United Kingdom
| | - Ai Koyanagi
- Biomedical Research Networking Center for Mental Health Network (CIBERSAM), Sant Boi de Llobregat, Spain
- Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Fiorella Krapp
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical Alexander von Humboldt (Alexander von Humboldt Institute for Tropical Medicine), Cayetano Heredia University, Lima, Peru
- Doctoral School of Biomedical Sciences, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Seung Lee
- Department of Precision Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon-si, Republic of Korea
| | - Maryam Noori
- Student Research Committee, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ibrahim Qattea
- Department of Neonatology, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, United States
| | - Victor Daniel Rosenthal
- International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium, Independent Consultant, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Joseph W. Sakshaug
- Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
- Department of Statistics, Ludwig Maximilians University, Munich, Germany
| | - Birhanu Wagaye
- Department of Public Health Nutrition, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia
- Infection Prevention and Control and Water, Sanitation and Hygiene Unit, Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Iman Zare
- Research and Development Department, Sina Medical Biochemistry Technologies Co. Ltd., Shiraz, Iran
| | | | - Efrén Murillo-Zamora
- Clinical Epidemiology Research Unit, Mexican Institute of Social Security, Villa de Alvarez, Mexico
- Postgraduate in Medical Sciences, Universidad de Colima, Colima, Mexico
| | - Dominique Vervoort
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | | | - Abderrahim Oulhaj
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna
- Departamento de Salud Oral (Department of Oral Health), Universidad Autónoma de Manizales (Autonomous University of Manizales), Manizales, Colombia
| | - Rahul Mehra
- Food Science and Technology, Maharishi Markandeshwar (Deemed to be University), Ambala, Haryana, India
| | - Mehrdad Amir-Behghadami
- Road Traffic Injury Research Center, Iranian International Safe Community Support Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
- Department of Health Service Management, Iranian Center of Excellence in Health Management, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Nasrin Adib
- Department of Veterinary Pathobiology, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
| | - Sandra Cortés
- Department of Public Health, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Santiago, Chile
- Research Line in Environmental Exposures and Health Effects at Population Level, Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable (CEDEUS), Advanced Center for Chronic Diseases (ACCDIS), Santiago, Chile
| | - Anh Kim Dang
- Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | - Binh Thanh Nguyen
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Ali H. Mokdad
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Simon I. Hay
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Christopher J. L. Murray
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Rafael Lozano
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Patricia J. García
- School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
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19
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Malta DC, Aquino ÉCD, Veloso GA, Teixeira RA, Cunningham M, Santos de Magalhães Cardoso L, Morais Neto OLD, Naghavi M. Mortality by road transport injury in Brazilian municipalities between 2000 and 2018. Public Health 2023; 220:120-126. [PMID: 37300976 DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2023.04.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2023] [Accepted: 04/22/2023] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study aimed to investigate patterns of mortality by road transport injury (RTI) in Brazilian municipalities, focused on deaths of motorcyclists, between 2000 and 2018, and their relation with population size and economic status. STUDY DESIGN This was an ecological epidemiological study with a descriptive and analytical nature. METHODS The age-standardized RTI mortality rates were calculated for the Brazilian municipalities, referring to the 3-year periods of 2000/2002 (T1), 2009/2011 (T2), and 2016/2018 (T3). The rates were stratified according to macroregion and population size and were compared in terms of percentage variation from one 3-year period to another. The Moran Global and Local indices were used in the spatial point-pattern analysis of the rates. To verify the association with the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the Spearman correlation coefficient was applied. RESULTS A decline in RTI mortality rates was found between 2000 and 2018, with the most significant declines observed in municipalities from the South and Southeast regions of Brazil. However, increases were observed among motorcyclists. Clusters of municipalities were detected, which presented high mortality rates among the motorcyclists in the Northeast region and in some states of the North and Midwest regions. The mortality rates showed a negative correlation with the GDP per capita of the Brazilian municipalities. CONCLUSIONS Although there were decreases in RTI mortality rates between 1990 and 2018, there was a significant increase in deaths among motorcyclists, especially in the Northeast, North, and Midwest regions of the country. Such differences can be explained by unequal growth in the size of the motorcycle fleet in those regions, by less law enforcement capability, and by the implementation of educational actions.
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Affiliation(s)
- D C Malta
- Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Departamento de Enfermagem Materno Infantil e Saúde Pública, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
| | - É C de Aquino
- Universidade Federal de Goiás, Instituto de Patologia Tropical e Saúde Pública, Programa de Pós-graduação Em Medicina Tropical e Saúde Pública, Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil.
| | - G A Veloso
- Universidade Federal Fluminense, Instituto de Matemática e Estatística, Departamento de Estatística.
| | - R A Teixeira
- Programa de Pós-graduação Em Saúde Pública, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
| | - M Cunningham
- University of Washington, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - L Santos de Magalhães Cardoso
- Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Escola de Enfermagem, Programa de Pós-Graduação Em Enfermagem, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
| | - O L de Morais Neto
- Universidade Federal de Goiás, Instituto de Patologia Tropical e Saúde Pública, Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil.
| | - M Naghavi
- University of Washington, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.
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20
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Mazidimoradi A, Ghavidel F, Momenimovahed Z, Allahqoli L, Salehiniya H. Global incidence, mortality, and burden of esophageal cancer, and its correlation with SDI, metabolic risks, fasting plasma glucose, LDL cholesterol, and body mass index: An ecological study. Health Sci Rep 2023; 6:e1342. [PMID: 37324248 PMCID: PMC10265723 DOI: 10.1002/hsr2.1342] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2023] [Revised: 04/24/2023] [Accepted: 05/21/2023] [Indexed: 06/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Background and Aims Esophageal cancer (EC) is one of the most common gastrointestinal malignancies. The geographical variation shows the influence of genetic factors, ethnicity, and distribution of various risk factors. Accurate knowledge of EC epidemiology at the global level will help to develop management strategies. Therefore, the present study was conducted to investigate the global and regional disease burden of EC, including the incidence, mortality, and burden of this cancer in 2019. Methods Incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates (ASRs) associated with EC in 204 countries in different classifications were extracted from the global burden of disease study. After collecting information on metabolic risks, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, and body mass index (body mass index), the relationship between age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate, and DALYs with these variables was determined. Results In 2019, 534,563 new cases of EC were reported worldwide. The highest ASIR is related to regions with medium sociodemographic index (SDI), and high middle income according to the World Bank, the Asian continent, and the western Pacific region. In 2019, a total of 498,067 deaths from EC were recorded. The highest mortality rate due to ASR is in countries with medium SDI and countries with upper middle income of the World Bank. In 2019, 1,166,017 DALYs were reported due to EC. The ASIR, ASDR, and DALYS ASR of EC showed a significant negative linear correlation with SDI, metabolic risks, high FPG, high LDL cholesterol, and high BMI (p < 0.05). Conclusions The results of this study showed significant gender and geographic variation in the incidence, mortality, and burden of EC. It is recommended to design and implement preventive approaches based on known risk factors and improve quality and access to efficient and appropriate treatments.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Fatemeh Ghavidel
- Department of Epidemiology and BiostatisticsTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran
| | | | | | - Hamid Salehiniya
- Social Determinants of Health Research CenterBirjand University of Medical SciencesBirjandIran
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21
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Johnson CO, DeCleene NK, Blacker BF, Cunningham MW, Aravkin A, Dieleman JL, Gakidou E, Naghavi M, Ogunniyi MO, Zheng P, Roth GA. State-Level Cardiovascular Mortality Rates Among Hispanic, Non-Hispanic Black, and Non-Hispanic White Populations, 1990 to 2019. JAMA Cardiol 2023; 8:429-442. [PMID: 36920376 PMCID: PMC10018407 DOI: 10.1001/jamacardio.2023.0112] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2022] [Accepted: 01/06/2023] [Indexed: 03/16/2023]
Abstract
Importance Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the US, with considerable variation by both state and race and ethnicity group. Consistent, comparable measures of mortality by specific CVD cause at the state level and by race and ethnicity have not previously been available and are necessary for supporting policy decisions aimed at reducing health inequities. Objective To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality due to overall CVD and its component causes for 3 mutually exclusive race and ethnicity groups and by state. Design, Setting, and Participants This cross-sectional study used Census data, population surveys, and US vital registration records to estimate cause-specific cardiovascular mortality by state and by the following race and ethnicity groups, defined by the US Office of Management and Budget: Hispanic of any race, non-Hispanic Black (hereafter, Black), and non-Hispanic White (hereafter, White). Data were analyzed from January 2020 to September 2022. Exposures State of residence at time of death; Hispanic ethnicity and Black or White race. Main Outcomes and Measures CVD death counts and mortality rates. Results An estimated 25 397 029 persons died of cardiovascular diseases from 1990 to 2019. The mean (SD) age of individuals was 78.20 (14.01); 13 087 290 individuals (51.53%) were female and 12 309 739 (48.47%) were male; 2 921 650 (11.50%) were Black, 1 159 498 (4.57%) were Hispanic, and 21 315 880 (83.93%) were White. Age-standardized CVD mortality per 100 000 persons in 2019 was 194.4 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 172.7 to 207.4), 107.7 (95% UI, 92.9 to 121.4), and 153.8 (95% UI, 133.8 to 163.8) among Black, Hispanic, and White populations, respectively. The median (IQR) percentage change across states was smaller for 2010 to 2019 compared with 1990 to 2000 for both White female and White male populations (-6.8 [-10.1 to -4.3] vs -10.2 [-12.9 to -5.9] and -4.6 [-8.6 to -2.5] vs -16.5 [-19.3 to -15.4]). For the Black and Hispanic groups, the percentage change (IQR) was larger for the female populations for the latter time period (-15.1 [-18.9 to -11.7] vs -12.6 [-19.6 to -7.8] and -23.5 [-29.2 to -18.5] vs -8.2 [-17.8 to 5.96]). The converse was observed among male individuals in both groups, with smaller percentage change (IQR) values in 2010 to 2019 compared with 1990 to 2000 (-13.1 [-18.7 to -8.6] vs -18.6 [-25.5 to -14.7] among the Black male population and -20.4 [-25.6 to -15.6] vs -21.5 [-31.1 to -5.7] among the Hispanic male population). There was substantial variability at the state level for death due to total CVD and component causes in 2019 and changes in CVD mortality from 1990 through 2019. Conclusions and Relevance The findings of this study indicate that CVD mortality varied widely by state and race and ethnicity group. Changes over the time period were not consistent for all groups and varied by cardiovascular subcause. These results highlight ongoing health disparities in cardiovascular mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Nicole K. DeCleene
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Brigette F. Blacker
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Aleksandr Aravkin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Joseph L. Dieleman
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Emmanuela Gakidou
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Modele O. Ogunniyi
- Division of Cardiology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Peng Zheng
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Gregory A. Roth
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
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Chew NWS, Ng CH, Tan DJH, Kong G, Lin C, Chin YH, Lim WH, Huang DQ, Quek J, Fu CE, Xiao J, Syn N, Foo R, Khoo CM, Wang JW, Dimitriadis GK, Young DY, Siddiqui MS, Lam CSP, Wang Y, Figtree GA, Chan MY, Cummings DE, Noureddin M, Wong VWS, Ma RCW, Mantzoros CS, Sanyal A, Muthiah MD. The global burden of metabolic disease: Data from 2000 to 2019. Cell Metab 2023; 35:414-428.e3. [PMID: 36889281 DOI: 10.1016/j.cmet.2023.02.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 74] [Impact Index Per Article: 74.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2022] [Revised: 12/19/2022] [Accepted: 02/03/2023] [Indexed: 03/09/2023]
Abstract
Global estimates of prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 were examined for metabolic diseases (type 2 diabetes mellitus [T2DM], hypertension, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease [NAFLD]). For metabolic risk factors (hyperlipidemia and obesity), estimates were limited to mortality and DALYs. From 2000 to 2019, prevalence rates increased for all metabolic diseases, with the greatest increase in high socio-demographic index (SDI) countries. Mortality rates decreased over time in hyperlipidemia, hypertension, and NAFLD, but not in T2DM and obesity. The highest mortality was found in the World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean region, and low to low-middle SDI countries. The global prevalence of metabolic diseases has risen over the past two decades regardless of SDI. Urgent attention is needed to address the unchanging mortality rates attributed to metabolic disease and the entrenched sex-regional-socioeconomic disparities in mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas W S Chew
- Department of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, Singapore, Singapore.
| | - Cheng Han Ng
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
| | - Darren Jun Hao Tan
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Gwyneth Kong
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Chaoxing Lin
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Yip Han Chin
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Wen Hui Lim
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Daniel Q Huang
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, National University Hospital, Singapore, Singapore; National University Centre for Organ Transplantation, National University Health System, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Jingxuan Quek
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Clarissa Elysia Fu
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Jieling Xiao
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Nicholas Syn
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; Division of General Surgery, University Surgical Cluster, National University Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Roger Foo
- Department of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, Singapore, Singapore; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Chin Meng Khoo
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; Division of Endocrinology, Department of Medicine, National University Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Jiong-Wei Wang
- Department of Surgery, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; Cardiovascular Research Institute, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, Singapore, Singapore; Nanomedicine Translational Research Programme, Centre for NanoMedicine, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Georgios K Dimitriadis
- Department of Endocrinology ASO/Easo COM, King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Denmark Hill, London, UK; Obesity, Type 2 Diabetes and Immunometabolism Research Group, Department of Diabetes, Faculty of Cardiovascular Medicine & Sciences, School of Life Course Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Dan Yock Young
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, National University Hospital, Singapore, Singapore; National University Centre for Organ Transplantation, National University Health System, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Mohammad Shadab Siddiqui
- Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, Department of Internal Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA
| | - Carolyn S P Lam
- National Heart Centre Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Yibin Wang
- Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Gemma A Figtree
- Northern Clinical School, Kolling Institute of Medical Research, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Department of Cardiology, Royal North Shore Hospital, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Mark Y Chan
- Department of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, Singapore, Singapore; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - David E Cummings
- UW Medicine Diabetes Institute, VA Puget Sound Health Care System, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Vincent Wai-Sun Wong
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Ronald Ching Wan Ma
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Li Ka Shing Institute of Health Sciences, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Hong Kong Institute of Diabetes and Obesity, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Christos S Mantzoros
- Section of Endocrinology, Boston VA Healthcare System, Boston, MA, USA; Faculty of Medicine, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Arun Sanyal
- Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, Department of Internal Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA
| | - Mark Dhinesh Muthiah
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, National University Hospital, Singapore, Singapore; National University Centre for Organ Transplantation, National University Health System, Singapore, Singapore
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23
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Landes SD, Finan JM, Turk MA. Reporting Down syndrome on the death certificate for Alzheimer disease/unspecified dementia deaths. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0281763. [PMID: 36780546 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0281763] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2022] [Accepted: 01/31/2023] [Indexed: 02/15/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Death certificates are crucial for understanding population health trends including the burden of disease mortality. Accurate reporting of causes of death on these records is necessary in order to implement adequate public health policies and fund disease research. While there is evidence that Alzheimer disease and unspecified dementia are prevalent among people with Down syndrome, a 2014 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) rule change instructing that Down syndrome should be reported as the underlying cause of death in instances when death occurred from Alzheimer disease or unspecified dementia threatens the accuracy and the utility of death certificates for this population. METHODS This study used 15 years (2005-2019) of US death certificate data for adults with and without Down syndrome. We compare the mortality burden due to Alzheimer disease and unspecified dementia prior to and after amending death certificates that report Down syndrome as the underlying cause of death. RESULTS When analyzing death certificates without addressing the reporting of Down syndrome as the underlying cause of death, rates of death due to Alzheimer disease and dementia ranked as the third leading cause of death for both adults with and without Down syndrome. After amending death certificates that reported Down syndrome as the underlying cause of death, Alzheimer disease and dementia were the leading cause of death among those with Down syndrome, occurring 2.7 times more in adults with compared to without Down syndrome. CONCLUSION The findings of this study highlight the importance of accurate mortality data for studying and addressing population health trends. The current practice of reporting Down syndrome as the underlying cause of death rather than the disease responsible for death needs to be reconsidered and modified. If not, people with Down syndrome may be further marginalized within dementia related support and research.
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Chaves SS, Nealon J, Burkart KG, Modin D, Biering-Sørensen T, Ortiz JR, Vilchis-Tella VM, Wallace LE, Roth G, Mahe C, Brauer M. Global, regional and national estimates of influenza-attributable ischemic heart disease mortality. EClinicalMedicine 2023; 55:101740. [PMID: 36425868 PMCID: PMC9678904 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101740] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2022] [Revised: 10/21/2022] [Accepted: 10/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Influenza virus infection is associated with incident ischemic heart disease (IHD) events. Here, we estimate the global, regional, and national IHD mortality burden attributable to influenza. METHODS We used vital registration data from deaths in adults ≥50 years (13.2 million IHD deaths as underlying cause) to assess the relationship between influenza activity and IHD mortality in a non-linear meta-regression framework from 2010 to 2019. This derived relationship was then used to estimate the global influenza attributable IHD mortality. We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of influenza for IHD deaths based on the relative risk associated with a given level of weekly influenza test positivity rate and multiplied PAFs by IHD mortality from the Global Burden of Disease study. FINDINGS Influenza activity was associated with increased risk of IHD mortality across all countries analyzed. The mean PAF of influenza for IHD mortality was 3.9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2.5-5.3%), ranging from <1% to 10%, depending on country and year. Globally, 299,858 IHD deaths (95% UI 191,216-406,809) in adults ≥50 years could be attributed to influenza, with the highest rates per 100,000 population in the Central Europe, Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region (32.3; 95% UI 20.6-43.8), and in the North Africa and Middle East Region (26.7; 95% UI 17-36.2). INTERPRETATION Influenza may contribute substantially to the burden of IHD. Our results suggest that if there were no influenza, an average of 4% of IHD deaths globally would not occur. FUNDING Collaborative study funded by Sanofi Vaccines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sandra S. Chaves
- Modelling, Epidemiology and Data Science Department, Sanofi Vaccine, Lyon, France
- Corresponding author.
| | - Joshua Nealon
- Modelling, Epidemiology and Data Science Department, Sanofi Vaccine, Lyon, France
- School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
- Corresponding author.
| | - Katrin G. Burkart
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Daniel Modin
- Department of Cardiology, Herlev and Gentofte Hospital, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Tor Biering-Sørensen
- Department of Cardiology, Herlev and Gentofte Hospital, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Justin R. Ortiz
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | | | - Lindsey E. Wallace
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Gregory Roth
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Cedric Mahe
- Modelling, Epidemiology and Data Science Department, Sanofi Vaccine, Lyon, France
| | - Michael Brauer
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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25
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Aleme H, Mekonnen W, Worku A. Cause-Specific Mortality Fraction (CSMF) of adult mortality in Butajira, South Central Ethiopia. PLOS Glob Public Health 2023; 3:e0000415. [PMID: 36962958 PMCID: PMC10021511 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000415] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2021] [Accepted: 01/11/2023] [Indexed: 03/14/2023]
Abstract
Cause- and context-specific mortality data are imperative to understand the extent of health problems in low-income settings, where national death registration and cause of death identification systems are at a rudimentary stage. Aiming to estimate cause-specific mortality fractions, adult (15+ years) deaths between January 2008 and April 2020 were extracted from the Butajira health and demographic surveillance system electronic database. The physician review and a computerized algorithm, InterVA (Interpreting Verbal Autopsy), methods were used to assign the likely causes of death from January 2008 to April 2017 (the first) and May 2017 to April 2020 (the second) phase of the surveillance period, respectively. Initially, adult mortality rates per 1000py across sex and age were summarized. A total of 1,625 deaths were captured in 280, 461 person-years, with an overall mortality rate of 5.8 (95%CI: 5.5, 6.0) per 1000py. Principally, mortality fractions for each specific cause of death were estimated, and for 1,571 deaths, specific causes were determined. During the first phase, the leading cause of death was tuberculosis (13.6%), followed by hypertension (6.6%) and chronic liver disease (5.9%). During the second phase, digestive neoplasms (17.3%), tuberculosis (12.1%), and stroke (9.4%) were the leading causes of death, respectively. Moreover, tuberculosis was higher among persons aged 50+ (15.0%), males (13.8%), and in rural areas (14.1%) during the first phase. Hypertensive diseases were higher among females (7.9%) and in urbanities. In the second phase, digestive neoplasms were higher in the age group of 50-64 years (25.4%) and females (19.0%), and stroke was higher in older adults (65+) (10%) and marginally higher among males (9.7%). Our results showed that tuberculosis and digestive neoplasms were the most common causes of death. Hence, prevention, early detection, and management of cases at all levels of the existing healthcare system should be prioritized to avert premature mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hailelule Aleme
- School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Wubegzier Mekonnen
- School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Alemayehu Worku
- School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
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Melo APS, Dippenaar IN, Johnson SC, Weaver ND, de Assis Acurcio F, Malta DC, Ribeiro ALP, Júnior AAG, Wool EE, Naghavi M, Cherchiglia ML. All-cause and cause-specific mortality among people with severe mental illness in Brazil's public health system, 2000-15: a retrospective study. Lancet Psychiatry 2022; 9:771-781. [PMID: 35964638 PMCID: PMC9477749 DOI: 10.1016/s2215-0366(22)00237-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2022] [Revised: 05/19/2022] [Accepted: 06/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND People with severe mental illness have a mortality rate higher than the general population, living an average of 10-20 years less. Most studies of mortality among people with severe mental illness have occurred in high-income countries (HICs). We aimed to estimate all-cause and cause-specific relative risk (RR) and excess mortality rate (EMR) in a nationwide cohort of inpatients with severe mental illness compared with inpatients without severe mental illness in a middle income country, Brazil. METHODS This national retrospective cohort study included all patients hospitalised through the Brazilian Public Health System (Sistema Único de Saúde [SUS]-Brazil) between Jan 1, 2000, and April 21, 2015. Probabilistic and deterministic record linkages integrated data from the Hospital Information System (Sistema de informações Hospitalares) and the National Mortality System (Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade). Follow-up duration was measured from the date of the patients' first hospitalisation until their death, or until April 21, 2015. Severe mental illness was defined as schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, or depressive disorder by ICD-10 codes used for the admission. RR and EMR were calculated with 95% CIs, comparing mortality among patients with severe mental illness with those with other diagnoses for patients aged 15 years and older. We redistributed deaths using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study methodology if ill-defined causes of death were stated as an underlying cause. FINDINGS From Jan 1, 2000, to April 21, 2015, 72 021 918 patients (31 510 035 [43·8%] recorded as male and 40 974 426 [56·9%] recorded as female; mean age 41·1 (SD 23·8) years) were admitted to hospital, with 749 720 patients (372 458 [49·7%] recorded as male and 378 670 [50·5%] as female) with severe mental illness. 5 102 055 patient deaths (2 862 383 [56·1%] recorded as male and 2 314 781 [45·4%] as female) and 67 485 deaths in patients with severe mental illness (39 099 [57·9%] recorded as male and 28 534 [42·3%] as female) were registered. The RR for all-cause mortality in patients with severe mental illness was 1·27 (95% CI 1·27-1·28) and the EMR was 2·52 (2·44-2·61) compared with non-psychiatric inpatients during the follow-up period. The all-cause RR was higher for females and for younger age groups; however, EMR was higher in those aged 30-59 years. The RR and EMR varied across the leading causes of death, sex, and age groups. We identified injuries (suicide, interpersonal violence, and road injuries) and cardiovascular disease (ischaemic heart disease) as having the highest EMR among those with severe mental illness. Data on ethnicity were not available. INTERPRETATION In contrast to studies from HICs, inpatients with severe mental illness in Brazil had high RR for idiopathic epilepsy, tuberculosis, HIV, and acute hepatitis, and no significant difference in mortality from cancer compared with inpatients without severe mental illness. These identified causes should be addressed as a priority to maximise mortality prevention among people with severe mental illness, especially in a middle-income country like Brazil that has low investment in mental health. FUNDING Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais, FAPEMIG, and the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior-Brasil.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana Paula Souto Melo
- Universidade Federal de São João Del Rei, São João del-Rei, Brazil; Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Ilse N Dippenaar
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Nicole Davis Weaver
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Francisco de Assis Acurcio
- Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; Centro Colaborador do SUS para Avaliação de Tecnologias e Excelência em Saúde, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | | | - Antônio Luiz P Ribeiro
- Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; Telehealth Center and Cardiology Service, Hospital das Clínicas, and Department of Internal Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Augusto Afonso Guerra Júnior
- Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; Centro Colaborador do SUS para Avaliação de Tecnologias e Excelência em Saúde, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Eve E Wool
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
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He L, Xue B, Wang B, Liu C, Gimeno Ruiz de Porras D, Delclos GL, Hu M, Luo B, Zhang K. Impact of high, low, and non-optimum temperatures on chronic kidney disease in a changing climate, 1990-2019: A global analysis. Environ Res 2022; 212:113172. [PMID: 35346653 PMCID: PMC9907637 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.113172] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2022] [Revised: 03/14/2022] [Accepted: 03/22/2022] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although a few studies have reported the relationship between high and low temperatures and chronic kidney disease (CKD), the global burden of CKD attributable to extreme heat and cold in recent decades remains unknown. METHODS Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019, we obtained data on age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized rates of disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) per 100 000 population of the CKD attributable to non-optimum temperatures from 1990 to 2019. The annual mean temperature of each country was used to divide each country into five climate zones (tropical, subtropical, warm-temperate, cool-temperate, and boreal). The locally weighted regression model was used to estimate the burden for different climate zones and Socio-demographic index (SDI) regions. RESULTS In 1990, the ASMR and ASDR due to high temperature estimated -0.01 (95% UI, -0.74 to 0.44) and -0.32 (-21.66 to 12.66) per 100 000 population, respectively. In 2019, the ASMR and ASDR reached 0.10 (-0.28 to 0.38) and 2.71 (-8.07 to 10.46), respectively. The high-temperature burden increased most rapidly in tropical and low SDI regions. There were 0.99 (0.59 to 1.39) ASMR attributable to low-temperature in 1990, which increased to 1.05 (0.61-1.49) in 2019. While the ASDR due to low temperature declined from 22.03 (12.66 to 30.64) in 1990 to 20.43 (11.30 to 29.26) in 2019. Overall, the burden of CKD attributable to non-optimal temperatures has increased from 1990 to 2019. CKD due to hypertension and diabetes mellitus were the primary causes of CKD death attributable to non-optimum temperatures in 2019 with males and older adults being more susceptible to these temperatures. CONCLUSIONS The CKD burden due to high, low, and non-optimum temperatures varies considerably by regions and countries. The burden of CKD attributable to high temperature has been increasing since 1990.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li He
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, People's Republic of China
| | - Baode Xue
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, People's Republic of China
| | - Bo Wang
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, People's Republic of China
| | - Ce Liu
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, People's Republic of China
| | - David Gimeno Ruiz de Porras
- Department of Epidemiology, Human Genetics and Environmental Sciences, School of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX, 77030, USA; Southwest Center for Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX, 77030, USA
| | - George L Delclos
- Department of Epidemiology, Human Genetics and Environmental Sciences, School of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX, 77030, USA; Southwest Center for Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX, 77030, USA
| | - Ming Hu
- School of Architecture, Planning and Preservation, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
| | - Bin Luo
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, People's Republic of China.
| | - Kai Zhang
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Place, Rensselaer, NY, 12144, USA.
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Ellingsen CL, Alfsen GC, Ebbing M, Pedersen AG, Sulo G, Vollset SE, Braut GS. Garbage codes in the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry 1996-2019. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:1301. [PMID: 35794568 PMCID: PMC9261062 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13693-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2021] [Accepted: 06/23/2022] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Reliable statistics on the underlying cause of death are essential for monitoring the health in a population. When there is insufficient information to identify the true underlying cause of death, the death will be classified using less informative codes, garbage codes. If many deaths are assigned a garbage code, the information value of the cause-of-death statistics is reduced. The aim of this study was to analyse the use of garbage codes in the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry (NCoDR). Methods Data from NCoDR on all deaths among Norwegian residents in the years 1996–2019 were used to describe the occurrence of garbage codes. We used logistic regression analyses to identify determinants for the use of garbage codes. Possible explanatory factors were year of death, sex, age of death, place of death and whether an autopsy was performed. Results A total of 29.0% (290,469/1,000,128) of the deaths were coded with a garbage code; 14.1% (140,804/1,000,128) with a major and 15.0% (149,665/1,000,128) with a minor garbage code. The five most common major garbage codes overall were ICD-10 codes I50 (heart failure), R96 (sudden death), R54 (senility), X59 (exposure to unspecified factor), and A41 (other sepsis). The most prevalent minor garbage codes were I64 (unspecified stroke), J18 (unspecified pneumonia), C80 (malignant neoplasm with unknown primary site), E14 (unspecified diabetes mellitus), and I69 (sequelae of cerebrovascular disease). The most important determinants for the use of garbage codes were the age of the deceased (OR 17.4 for age ≥ 90 vs age < 1) and death outside hospital (OR 2.08 for unknown place of death vs hospital). Conclusion Over a 24-year period, garbage codes were used in 29.0% of all deaths. The most important determinants of a death to be assigned a garbage code were advanced age and place of death outside hospital. Knowledge of the national epidemiological situation, as well as the rules and guidelines for mortality coding, is essential for understanding the prevalence and distribution of garbage codes, in order to rely on vital statistics. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13693-w.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christian Lycke Ellingsen
- Department of Pathology, Stavanger University Hospital, PO Box 8100, N-4068, Stavanger, Norway. .,Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, PO Box 7804, N-5020, Bergen, Norway.
| | - G Cecilie Alfsen
- Department of Pathology, Akershus University Hospital, PO Box 1000, N-1478, Lørenskog, Norway.,Faculty of Medicine, University of Oslo, PO Box 1078, Blindern, N-0316, Oslo, Norway
| | - Marta Ebbing
- Department of Research and Development, Haukeland University Hospital, PO Box 1400, N-5021, Bergen, Norway
| | - Anne Gro Pedersen
- Department for Health Data and Collection, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, PO Box 973, Sentrum, N-5808, Bergen, Norway
| | - Gerhard Sulo
- Centre for Disease Burden, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, PO Box 973, Sentrum, N-5808, Bergen, Norway
| | - Stein Emil Vollset
- Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, PO Box 7804, N-5020, Bergen, Norway.,Department of Health Metrics Sciences and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Ave NE, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - Geir Sverre Braut
- Department of Research, Stavanger University Hospital, PO Box 8100, N-4068, Stavanger, Norway
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Clarsen B, Nylenna M, Klitkou ST, Vollset SE, Baravelli CM, Bølling AK, Aasvang GM, Sulo G, Naghavi M, Pasovic M, Asaduzzaman M, Bjørge T, Eggen AE, Eikemo TA, Ellingsen CL, Haaland ØA, Hailu A, Hassan S, Hay SI, Juliusson PB, Kisa A, Kisa S, Månsson J, Mekonnen T, Murray CJL, Norheim OF, Ottersen T, Sagoe D, Sripada K, Winkler AS, Knudsen AKS. Changes in life expectancy and disease burden in Norway, 1990–2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet Public Health 2022; 7:e593-e605. [PMID: 35779543 PMCID: PMC9253891 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(22)00092-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2021] [Revised: 03/31/2022] [Accepted: 04/04/2022] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Methods Findings Interpretation Funding
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Tai SY, Cheon S, Yamaoka Y, Chien YW, Lu TH. Changes in the rankings of leading causes of death in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan from 1998 to 2018: a comparison of three ranking lists. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:926. [PMID: 35538508 PMCID: PMC9086411 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13278-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2022] [Accepted: 04/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The ranking lists used by most countries for leading causes of death (CODs) comprise broad category such as cancer, heart disease, and accidents. To provide more specific information, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) proposed lists that splitting broad categories into specific categories. We examined the changes in rankings of leading CODs according to different lists in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan from 1998 to 2018. METHODS We obtained the number of deaths for three countries from the WHO mortality database for 1998, 2008, and 2018. Age-standardized death rates were calculated for rankings 10 leading CODs using WHO 2000 age structure as standard. RESULTS The first leading COD was cancer in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan from 1998 to 2018 based on government list; nevertheless, became stroke based on WHO list, and was stroke and ischemic heart disease based on IHME list. In the WHO and IHME lists, cancer is categorized based on cancer site. The number of cancer sites included in the 10 leading CODs in 2018 was 4, 4, and 3 in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, respectively according to the WHO list and was 4, 4, and 2, respectively according to IHME list. The only difference was the rank of liver cancer in Taiwan, which was 6th according to WHO list and was 18th according to IHME list. The ranking and number of deaths for some CODs differed greatly between the WHO and IHME lists due to the reallocation of "garbage codes" into relevant specific COD in IHME list. CONCLUSIONS Through the use of WHO and the IHME lists, the relative importance of several specific and avoidable causes could be revealed in 10 leading CODs, which could not be discerned if the government lists were used. The information is more relevant for health policy decision making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shu-Yu Tai
- Department of Family Medicine, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Kaohsiung Municipal Ta-Tung Hospital and Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Soyeon Cheon
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Yui Yamaoka
- Department of Global Health Promotion, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yu-Wen Chien
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Tsung-Hsueh Lu
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan.
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Quistberg DA, Hessel P, Rodriguez DA, Sarmiento OL, Bilal U, Caiaffa WT, Miranda JJ, de Pina MDF, Hernández-Vásquez A, Diez Roux AV. Urban landscape and street-design factors associated with road-traffic mortality in Latin America between 2010 and 2016 (SALURBAL): an ecological study. Lancet Planet Health 2022; 6:e122-e131. [PMID: 35150622 PMCID: PMC8850369 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00323-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2020] [Revised: 11/05/2021] [Accepted: 11/18/2021] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Road-traffic injuries are a key cause of death and disability in low-income and middle-income countries, but the effect of city characteristics on road-traffic mortality is unknown in these countries. The aim of this study was to determine associations between city-level built environment factors and road-traffic mortality in large Latin American cities. METHODS We selected cities from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Panama, and Peru; cities included in the analysis had a population of at least 100 000 people. We extracted data for road-traffic deaths that occurred between 2010 and 2016 from country vital registries. Deaths were grouped by 5-year age groups and sex. Road-traffic deaths were identified using ICD-10 codes, with adjustments for ill-defined codes and incomplete registration. City-level measures included population, urban development, street design, public transportation, and social environment. Associations were estimated using multilevel negative binomial models with robust variances. FINDINGS 366 cities were included in the analysis. There were 328 408 road-traffic deaths in nearly 3·5 billion person-years across all countries, with an average crude rate of 17·1 deaths per 100 000 person-years. Nearly half of the people who died were younger than 35 years. In multivariable models, road-traffic mortality was higher in cities where urban development was more isolated (rate ratio [RR] 1·05 per 1 SD increase, 95% CI 1·02-1·09), but lower in cities with higher population density (0·94, 0·90-0·98), higher gross domestic product per capita (0·96, 0·94-0·98), and higher intersection density (0·92, 0·89-0·95). Cities with mass transit had lower road mortality rates than did those without (0·92, 0·86-0·99). INTERPRETATION Urban development policies that reduce isolated and disconnected urban development and that promote walkable street networks and public transport could be important strategies to reduce road-traffic deaths in Latin America and elsewhere. FUNDING Wellcome Trust.
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Affiliation(s)
- D Alex Quistberg
- Urban Health Collaborative, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
| | - Philipp Hessel
- Escuela de Gobierno Alberto Lleras Camargo, Universidad de Los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Daniel A Rodriguez
- City + Regional Planning and Institute for Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | | | - Usama Bilal
- Urban Health Collaborative, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA; Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Waleska Teixeira Caiaffa
- Observatório de Saúde Urbana em Belo Horizonte, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - J Jaime Miranda
- CRONICAS Center of Excellence in Chronic Diseases, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru; School of Medicine, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Maria de Fatima de Pina
- Instituto de Comunicação e Investigação Científica e Tecnológica em Saúde, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; i3S-Instituto de Investigação e Inovação em Saúde, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Akram Hernández-Vásquez
- CRONICAS Center of Excellence in Chronic Diseases, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Ana V Diez Roux
- Urban Health Collaborative, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA; Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
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Monasta L, Alicandro G, Pasovic M, Cunningham M, Armocida B, Ronfani L, Naghavi M, Monasta L, Alicandro G, Pasovic M, Cunningham M, Armocida B, Albano L, Beghi E, Beghi M, Bosetti C, Bragazzi NL, Carreras G, Castelpietra G, Catapano AL, Cattaruzza MS, Collatuzzo G, Conti S, Damiani G, Ferrara P, Fornari C, Gallus S, Giampaoli S, Golinelli D, Isola G, Lauriola P, La Vecchia C, Leonardi M, Magnani FG, Minelli G, Moccia M, Pedersini P, Perico N, Raggi A, Remuzzi G, Sanmarchi F, Sattin D, Unim B, Villafañe JH, Violante FS, Murray CJL, Ronfani L, Naghavi M. Redistribution of garbage codes to underlying causes of death: a systematic analysis on Italy and a comparison with most populous Western European countries based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Eur J Public Health 2022; 32:456-462. [PMID: 35061890 PMCID: PMC9159332 DOI: 10.1093/eurpub/ckab194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The proportion of reported causes of death (CoDs) that are not underlying causes can be relevant even in high-income countries and seriously affect health planning. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study identifies these ‘garbage codes’ (GCs) and redistributes them to underlying causes using evidence-based algorithms. Planners relying on vital registration data will find discrepancies with GBD estimates. We analyse these discrepancies, through the analysis of GCs and their redistribution. Methods We explored the case of Italy, at national and regional level, and compared it to nine other Western European countries with similar population sizes. We analysed differences between official data and GBD 2019 estimates, for the period 1990–2017 for which we had vital registration data for most select countries. Results In Italy, in 2017, 33 000 deaths were attributed to unspecified type of stroke and 15 000 to unspecified type of diabetes, these making a fourth of the overall garbage. Significant heterogeneity exists on the overall proportion of GCs, type (unspecified or impossible underlying causes), and size of specific GCs among regions in Italy, and among the select countries. We found no pattern between level of garbage and relevance of specific GCs. Even locations performing below average show interesting lower levels for certain GCs if compared to better performing countries. Conclusions This systematic analysis suggests the heterogeneity in GC levels and causes, paired with a more detailed analysis of local practices, strengths and weaknesses, could be a positive element in a strategy for the reduction of GCs in Italy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lorenzo Monasta
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health–IRCCS “Burlo Garofolo”, Trieste, Italy
| | - Gianfranco Alicandro
- Department of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy
- Cystic Fibrosis Center, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| | - Maja Pasovic
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Matthew Cunningham
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Benedetta Armocida
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health–IRCCS “Burlo Garofolo”, Trieste, Italy
| | - Luca Ronfani
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health–IRCCS “Burlo Garofolo”, Trieste, Italy
| | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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França EB, Ishitani LH, de Abreu DMX, Teixeira RA, Corrêa PRL, de Jesus EDS, Marinho MAD, Bahia TV, Bierrenbach AL, Setel P, Marinho F. Measuring misclassification of Covid-19 as garbage codes: Results of investigating 1,365 deaths and implications for vital statistics in Brazil. PLOS Glob Public Health 2022; 2:e0000199. [PMID: 36962159 PMCID: PMC10021639 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000199] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2021] [Accepted: 01/19/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to quantify the amount of misclassification of the Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) mortality occurring in hospitals and other health facilities in selected cities in Brazil, discuss potential factors contributing to this misclassification, and consider the implications for vital statistics. Hospital deaths assigned to causes classified as garbage code (GC) COVID-related cases (severe acute respiratory syndrome, pneumonia unspecified, sepsis, respiratory failure and ill-defined causes) were selected in three Brazilian state capitals. Data from medical charts and forensic reports were extracted from standard forms and analyzed by study physicians who re-assigned the underlying cause based on standardized criteria. Descriptive statistical analysis was performed and the potential impact in vital statistics in the country was also evaluated. Among 1,365 investigated deaths due to GC-COVID-related causes, COVID-19 was detected in 17.3% in the age group 0-59 years and 25.5% deaths in 60 years and over. These GCs rose substantially in 2020 in the country and were responsible for 211,611 registered deaths. Applying observed proportions by age, location and specific GC-COVID-related cause to national data, there would be an increase of 37,163 cases in the total of COVID-19 deaths, higher in the elderly. In conclusion, important undercount of deaths from COVID-19 among GC-COVID-related causes was detected in three selected capitals of Brazil. After extrapolating the study results for national GC-COVID-related deaths we infer that the burden of COVID-19 disease in Brazil in official vital statistics was probably under estimated by at least 18% in the country in 2020.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elisabeth B França
- Graduate Program in Public Health, School of Medicine, Federal University of Minas Gerais - Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
- Research Group on Epidemiology and Health Evaluation, Federal University of Minas Gerais - Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Lenice H Ishitani
- Research Group on Epidemiology and Health Evaluation, Federal University of Minas Gerais - Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Daisy Maria Xavier de Abreu
- Research Group on Epidemiology and Health Evaluation, Federal University of Minas Gerais - Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Renato Azeredo Teixeira
- Research Group on Epidemiology and Health Evaluation, Federal University of Minas Gerais - Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Philip Setel
- Vital Strategies, New York, New York, United States of America
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Kyu HH, Jahagirdar D, Cunningham M, Walters M, Brewer E, Novotney A, Wool E, Dippennar I, Sharara F, Han C, Balassyano S, Bertolacci G, Murray CJL, Naghavi M. Accounting for misclassified and unknown cause of death data in vital registration systems for estimating trends in HIV mortality. J Int AIDS Soc 2021; 24 Suppl 5:e25791. [PMID: 34546661 PMCID: PMC8454675 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.25791] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/15/2021] [Accepted: 07/21/2021] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction Misclassification of HIV deaths can substantially diminish the usefulness of cause of death data for decision‐making. In this study, we describe the methods developed by the Global Burden of Disease Study to account for the misclassified cause of death data from vital registration systems for estimating HIV mortality in 132 countries and territories. Methods The cause of death data were obtained from the World Health Organization Mortality Database and official country‐specific mortality databases. We implemented two steps to adjust the raw cause of death data: (1) redistributing garbage codes to underlying causes of death, including HIV/AIDS by applying methods, such as analysis of multiple cause data and proportional redistribution, and (2) reassigning HIV deaths misclassified as other causes to HIV/AIDS by examining the age patterns of underlying causes in location and years with and without HIV epidemics. Results In 132 countries, during the period from 1990 to 2018, 1,848,761 deaths were reported as caused by HIV/AIDS. After garbage code redistribution in these 132 countries, this number increased to 4,165,015 deaths. An additional 1,944,291 deaths were added through correction of HIV deaths misclassified as other causes in 44 countries. The proportion of HIV deaths derived from garbage code redistribution decreased over time, from 0.4 in 1990 to 0.1 in 2018. The proportion of deaths derived from HIV misclassification correction peaked at 0.4 in 2006 and declined afterwards to 0.08 in 2018. The greatest contributors to garbage code redistribution were “immunodeficiency antibody” (ICD 9: 279‐279.1; ICD 10: D80‐D80.9) and “immunodeficiency other” (ICD 9: 279, 279.5‐279.9; ICD 10: D83‐D84.9, D89, D89.8‐D89.9), which together contributed 77% of all redistributed deaths at their peak in 1995. Respiratory tuberculosis (ICD 9: 010–012.9; ICD 10: A10‐A14, A15‐A16.9) contributed the greatest proportion of all HIV misclassified deaths (25–62% per year) over the most years. Conclusions Correcting for miscoding and misclassification of cause of death data can enhance the utility of the data for analyzing trends in HIV mortality and tracking progress toward the Sustainable Development Goal targets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hmwe H Kyu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA.,Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Deepa Jahagirdar
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | | | - Magdalene Walters
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Edmond Brewer
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Amanda Novotney
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Eve Wool
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Ilse Dippennar
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Fablina Sharara
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Chieh Han
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Shelly Balassyano
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Greg Bertolacci
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Christopher J L Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA.,Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, USA.,Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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Burkart KG, Brauer M, Aravkin AY, Godwin WW, Hay SI, He J, Iannucci VC, Larson SL, Lim SS, Liu J, Murray CJL, Zheng P, Zhou M, Stanaway JD. Estimating the cause-specific relative risks of non-optimal temperature on daily mortality: a two-part modelling approach applied to the Global Burden of Disease Study. Lancet 2021; 398:685-697. [PMID: 34419204 PMCID: PMC8387975 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01700-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 101] [Impact Index Per Article: 33.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2020] [Revised: 07/15/2021] [Accepted: 07/20/2021] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Associations between high and low temperatures and increases in mortality and morbidity have been previously reported, yet no comprehensive assessment of disease burden has been done. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the global and regional burden due to non-optimal temperature exposure. METHODS In part 1 of this study, we linked deaths to daily temperature estimates from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. We modelled the cause-specific relative risks for 176 individual causes of death along daily temperature and 23 mean temperature zones using a two-dimensional spline within a Bayesian meta-regression framework. We then calculated the cause-specific and total temperature-attributable burden for the countries for which daily mortality data were available. In part 2, we applied cause-specific relative risks from part 1 to all locations globally. We combined exposure-response curves with daily gridded temperature and calculated the cause-specific burden based on the underlying burden of disease from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, for the years 1990-2019. Uncertainty from all components of the modelling chain, including risks, temperature exposure, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels, defined as the temperature of minimum mortality across all included causes, was propagated using posterior simulation of 1000 draws. FINDINGS We included 64·9 million individual International Classification of Diseases-coded deaths from nine different countries, occurring between Jan 1, 1980, and Dec 31, 2016. 17 causes of death met the inclusion criteria. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, hypertensive heart disease, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, lower respiratory infection, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease showed J-shaped relationships with daily temperature, whereas the risk of external causes (eg, homicide, suicide, drowning, and related to disasters, mechanical, transport, and other unintentional injuries) increased monotonically with temperature. The theoretical minimum risk exposure levels varied by location and year as a function of the underlying cause of death composition. Estimates for non-optimal temperature ranged from 7·98 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 7·10-8·85) per 100 000 and a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 1·2% (1·1-1·4) in Brazil to 35·1 deaths (29·9-40·3) per 100 000 and a PAF of 4·7% (4·3-5·1) in China. In 2019, the average cold-attributable mortality exceeded heat-attributable mortality in all countries for which data were available. Cold effects were most pronounced in China with PAFs of 4·3% (3·9-4·7) and attributable rates of 32·0 deaths (27·2-36·8) per 100 000 and in New Zealand with 3·4% (2·9-3·9) and 26·4 deaths (22·1-30·2). Heat effects were most pronounced in China with PAFs of 0·4% (0·3-0·6) and attributable rates of 3·25 deaths (2·39-4·24) per 100 000 and in Brazil with 0·4% (0·3-0·5) and 2·71 deaths (2·15-3·37). When applying our framework to all countries globally, we estimated that 1·69 million (1·52-1·83) deaths were attributable to non-optimal temperature globally in 2019. The highest heat-attributable burdens were observed in south and southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and North Africa and the Middle East, and the highest cold-attributable burdens in eastern and central Europe, and central Asia. INTERPRETATION Acute heat and cold exposure can increase or decrease the risk of mortality for a diverse set of causes of death. Although in most regions cold effects dominate, locations with high prevailing temperatures can exhibit substantial heat effects far exceeding cold-attributable burden. Particularly, a high burden of external causes of death contributed to strong heat impacts, but cardiorespiratory diseases and metabolic diseases could also be substantial contributors. Changes in both exposures and the composition of causes of death drove changes in risk over time. Steady increases in exposure to the risk of high temperature are of increasing concern for health. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katrin G Burkart
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Michael Brauer
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Aleksandr Y Aravkin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - William W Godwin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jaiwei He
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Vincent C Iannucci
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Samantha L Larson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Stephen S Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jiangmei Liu
- Non-Communicable Disease Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Christopher J L Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Peng Zheng
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- Non-Communicable Disease Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jeffrey D Stanaway
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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