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Capurso G, Ponz de Leon Pisani R, Lauri G, Archibugi L, Hegyi P, Papachristou GI, Pandanaboyana S, Maisonneuve P, Arcidiacono PG, de‐Madaria E. Clinical usefulness of scoring systems to predict severe acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis with pre and post-test probability assessment. United European Gastroenterol J 2023; 11:825-836. [PMID: 37755341 PMCID: PMC10637128 DOI: 10.1002/ueg2.12464] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2023] [Accepted: 08/05/2023] [Indexed: 09/28/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Scoring systems for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) prediction should be used in conjunction with pre-test probability to establish post-test probability of SAP, but data of this kind are lacking. OBJECTIVE To investigate the predictive value of commonly employed scoring systems and their usefulness in modifying the pre-test probability of SAP. METHODS Following PRISMA statement and MOOSE checklists after PROSPERO registration, PubMed was searched from inception until September 2022. Retrospective, prospective, cross-sectional studies or clinical trials on patients with acute pancreatitis defined as Revised Atlanta Criteria, reporting rate of SAP and using at least one score among Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination (APACHE)-II, RANSON, and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) with their sensitivity and specificity were included. Random effects model meta-analyses were performed. Pre-test probability and likelihood ratio (LR) were combined to estimate post-test probability on Fagan nomograms. Pooled severity rate was used as pre-test probability of SAP and pooled sensitivity and specificity to calculate LR and generate post-test probability. A priori hypotheses for heterogeneity were developed and sensitivity analyses planned. RESULTS 43 studies yielding 14,116 acute pancreatitis patients were included: 42 with BISAP, 30 with APACHE-II, 27 with Ranson, 8 with SIRS. Pooled pre-test probability of SAP ranged 16.6%-25.3%. The post-test probability of SAP with positive/negative score was 47%/6% for BISAP, 43%/5% for APACHE-II, 48%/5% for Ranson, 40%/12% for SIRS. In 18 studies comparing BISAP, APACHE-II, and Ranson in 6740 patients with pooled pre-test probability of SAP of 18.7%, post-test probability when scores were positive was 48% for BISAP, 46% for APACHE-II, 50% for Ranson. When scores were negative, post-test probability dropped to 7% for BISAP, 6% for Ranson, 5% for APACHE-II. Quality, design, and country of origin of the studies did not explain the observed high heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS The most commonly used scoring systems to predict SAP perform poorly and do not aid in decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gabriele Capurso
- Pancreato‐Biliary Endoscopy and Endosonography DivisionPancreas Translational & Clinical Research CenterSan Raffaele Scientific Institute IRCCSVita‐Salute San Raffaele UniversityMilanItaly
| | - Ruggero Ponz de Leon Pisani
- Pancreato‐Biliary Endoscopy and Endosonography DivisionPancreas Translational & Clinical Research CenterSan Raffaele Scientific Institute IRCCSVita‐Salute San Raffaele UniversityMilanItaly
| | - Gaetano Lauri
- Pancreato‐Biliary Endoscopy and Endosonography DivisionPancreas Translational & Clinical Research CenterSan Raffaele Scientific Institute IRCCSVita‐Salute San Raffaele UniversityMilanItaly
| | - Livia Archibugi
- Pancreato‐Biliary Endoscopy and Endosonography DivisionPancreas Translational & Clinical Research CenterSan Raffaele Scientific Institute IRCCSVita‐Salute San Raffaele UniversityMilanItaly
| | - Peter Hegyi
- Centre for Translational MedicineSemmelweis UniversityBudapestHungary
- Institute of Pancreatic DiseasesSemmelweis UniversityBudapestHungary
- Translational Pancreatology Research GroupInterdisciplinary Centre of Excellence for Research Development and Innovation University of SzegedSzegedHungary
| | - Georgios I. Papachristou
- Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and NutritionThe Ohio State UniversityWexner Medical CenterColumbusOhioUSA
| | - Sanjay Pandanaboyana
- Department of Hepato‐Pancreato‐Biliary and Transplant SurgeryThe Freeman HospitalNewcastle upon TyneTyne and WearUK
- Population Health Sciences InstituteNewcastle UniversityNewcastleUK
| | - Patrick Maisonneuve
- Division of Epidemiology and BiostatisticsIEO European Institute of OncologyMilanItaly
| | - Paolo Giorgio Arcidiacono
- Pancreato‐Biliary Endoscopy and Endosonography DivisionPancreas Translational & Clinical Research CenterSan Raffaele Scientific Institute IRCCSVita‐Salute San Raffaele UniversityMilanItaly
| | - Enrique de‐Madaria
- Gastroenterology DepartmentDr. Balmis General University HospitalISABIALAlicanteSpain
- Department of Clinical MedicineMiguel Hernández UniversityElcheSpain
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Hu JX, Zhao CF, Wang SL, Tu XY, Huang WB, Chen JN, Xie Y, Chen CR. Acute pancreatitis: A review of diagnosis, severity prediction and prognosis assessment from imaging technology, scoring system and artificial intelligence. World J Gastroenterol 2023; 29:5268-5291. [PMID: 37899784 PMCID: PMC10600804 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v29.i37.5268] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2023] [Revised: 07/31/2023] [Accepted: 09/14/2023] [Indexed: 09/25/2023] Open
Abstract
Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially life-threatening inflammatory disease of the pancreas, with clinical management determined by the severity of the disease. Diagnosis, severity prediction, and prognosis assessment of AP typically involve the use of imaging technologies, such as computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and ultrasound, and scoring systems, including Ranson, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, and Bedside Index for Severity in AP scores. Computed tomography is considered the gold standard imaging modality for AP due to its high sensitivity and specificity, while magnetic resonance imaging and ultrasound can provide additional information on biliary obstruction and vascular complications. Scoring systems utilize clinical and laboratory parameters to classify AP patients into mild, moderate, or severe categories, guiding treatment decisions, such as intensive care unit admission, early enteral feeding, and antibiotic use. Despite the central role of imaging technologies and scoring systems in AP management, these methods have limitations in terms of accuracy, reproducibility, practicality and economics. Recent advancements of artificial intelligence (AI) provide new opportunities to enhance their performance by analyzing vast amounts of clinical and imaging data. AI algorithms can analyze large amounts of clinical and imaging data, identify scoring system patterns, and predict the clinical course of disease. AI-based models have shown promising results in predicting the severity and mortality of AP, but further validation and standardization are required before widespread clinical application. In addition, understanding the correlation between these three technologies will aid in developing new methods that can accurately, sensitively, and specifically be used in the diagnosis, severity prediction, and prognosis assessment of AP through complementary advantages.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian-Xiong Hu
- Intensive Care Unit, The Affiliated Hospital of Putian University, Putian 351100, Fujian Province, China
| | - Cheng-Fei Zhao
- School of Pharmacy and Medical Technology, Putian University, Putian 351100, Fujian Province, China
- Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Analysis and Laboratory Medicine, Putian University, Putian 351100, Fujian Province, China
| | - Shu-Ling Wang
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou 350001, Fujian Province, China
| | - Xiao-Yan Tu
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou 350001, Fujian Province, China
| | - Wei-Bin Huang
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou 350001, Fujian Province, China
| | - Jun-Nian Chen
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou 350001, Fujian Province, China
| | - Ying Xie
- School of Mechanical, Electrical and Information Engineering, Putian University, Putian 351100, Fujian Province, China
| | - Cun-Rong Chen
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou 350001, Fujian Province, China
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Wang F, Li J, Fan Y, Qi X. Construction of a risk prediction model for detecting postintensive care syndrome-mental disorders. Nurs Crit Care 2023. [PMID: 37699863 DOI: 10.1111/nicc.12978] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2022] [Revised: 08/03/2023] [Accepted: 08/14/2023] [Indexed: 09/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Postintensive care syndrome (PICS) has adverse multidimensional effects on nearly half of the patients discharged from ICU. Mental disorders such as anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are the most common psychological problems for patients with PICS with harmful complications. However, developing prediction models for mental disorders in post-ICU patients is an understudied problem. AIMS To explore the risk factors of PICS mental disorders, establish the prediction model and verify its prediction efficiency. STUDY DESIGN In this cohort study, data were collected from 393 patients hospitalized in the ICU of a tertiary hospital from April to September 2022. Participants were randomly assigned to modelling and validation groups using a 7:3 ratio. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression analysis was performed to select the predictors, multiple logistic regression analysis was used to establish the risk prediction model, and a dynamic nomogram was developed. The Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test was performed to determine the model's goodness of fit. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the model's prediction efficiency. RESULTS The risk factors of mental disorders were Sepsis-related organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), delirium duration, ICU depression score and ICU sleep score. The HL test revealed that p = .249, the area under the ROC curve = 0.860, and the corresponding sensitivity and specificity were 84.8% and 71.0%, respectively. The area under the ROC curve of the verification group was 0.848. A mental disorders dynamic nomogram for post-ICU patients was developed based on the regression model. CONCLUSIONS The prediction model provides a reference for clinically screening patients at high risk of developing post-ICU mental disorders, to enable the implementation of timely preventive management measures. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE The dynamic nomogram can be used to systematically monitor various factors associated with mental disorders. Furthermore, nurses need to develop and apply accurate nursing interventions that consider all relevant variables.
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Affiliation(s)
- Faying Wang
- Clinical Nursing Teaching Department, Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China
- Office of General Affairs, School of Nursing, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China
| | - Jingshu Li
- Clinical Nursing Teaching Department, Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China
- Office of General Affairs, School of Nursing, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China
- Hemodialysis Center, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China
| | - Yuying Fan
- Clinical Nursing Teaching Department, Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China
- Office of General Affairs, School of Nursing, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China
| | - Xiaona Qi
- Clinical Nursing Teaching Department, Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China
- Office of General Affairs, School of Nursing, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China
- Nursing Department, Tumor Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China
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Liu F, Yao J, Liu C, Shou S. Construction and validation of machine learning models for sepsis prediction in patients with acute pancreatitis. BMC Surg 2023; 23:267. [PMID: 37658375 PMCID: PMC10474758 DOI: 10.1186/s12893-023-02151-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2023] [Accepted: 08/11/2023] [Indexed: 09/03/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND This study aimed to construct predictive models for the risk of sepsis in patients with Acute pancreatitis (AP) using machine learning methods and compared optimal one with the logistic regression (LR) model and scoring systems. METHODS In this retrospective cohort study, data were collected from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC III) database between 2001 and 2012 and the MIMIC IV database between 2008 and 2019. Patients were randomly divided into training and test sets (8:2). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression plus 5-fold cross-validation were used to screen and confirm the predictive factors. Based on the selected predictive factors, 6 machine learning models were constructed, including support vector machine (SVM), K-nearest neighbour (KNN), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), LR, gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) and adaptive enhancement algorithm (AdaBoost). The models and scoring systems were evaluated and compared using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), accuracy, and the area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS A total of 1, 672 patients were eligible for participation. In the training set, 261 AP patients (19.51%) were diagnosed with sepsis. The predictive factors for the risk of sepsis in AP patients included age, insurance, vasopressors, mechanical ventilation, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature, SpO2, platelet, red blood cell distribution width (RDW), International Normalized Ratio (INR), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN). The AUC of the GBDT model for sepsis prediction in the AP patients in the testing set was 0.985. The GBDT model showed better performance in sepsis prediction than the LR, systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, quick-SOFA (qSOFA), and simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II). CONCLUSION The present findings suggest that compared to the classical LR model and SOFA, qSOFA, SAPS II, SIRS, and BISAP scores, the machine learning model-GBDT model had a better performance in predicting sepsis in the AP patients, which is a useful tool for early identification of high-risk patients and timely clinical interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fei Liu
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, 154 Anshan Road, Heping District, Tianjin, 300052, P.R. China
| | - Jie Yao
- Department of Anesthesiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Hebei North University, Zhangjiakou, Hebei, 075000, P.R. China
| | - Chunyan Liu
- Department of Intensive Care Unit, The First Affiliated Hospital of Hebei North University, Zhangjiakou, Hebei, 075000, P.R. China
| | - Songtao Shou
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, 154 Anshan Road, Heping District, Tianjin, 300052, P.R. China.
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Xu KZ, Xu P, li JJ, Zuo AF, Wang SB, Han F. Predictors and nomogram of in-hospital mortality in sepsis-induced myocardial injury: a retrospective cohort study. BMC Anesthesiol 2023; 23:230. [PMID: 37420185 PMCID: PMC10327384 DOI: 10.1186/s12871-023-02189-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2023] [Accepted: 06/23/2023] [Indexed: 07/09/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Sepsis-induced myocardial injury (SIMI) is a common organ dysfunction and is associated with higher mortality in patients with sepsis. We aim to construct a nomogram prediction model to assess the 28-day mortality in patients with SIMI. . METHOD We retrospectively extracted data from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) open-source clinical database. SIMI was defined by Troponin T (higher than the 99th percentile of upper reference limit value) and patients with cardiovascular disease were excluded. A prediction model was constructed in the training cohort by backward stepwise Cox proportional hazards regression model. The concordance index (C-index), area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), calibration plotting and decision-curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the nomogram. RESULTS 1312 patients with sepsis were included in this study and 1037 (79%) of them presented with SIMI. The multivariate Cox regression analysis in all septic patients revealed that SIMI was independently associated with 28-day mortality of septic patients. The risk factors of diabetes, Apache II score, mechanical ventilation, vasoactive support, Troponin T and creatinine were included in the model and a nomogram was constructed based on the model. The C-index, AUC, NRI, IDI, calibration plotting and DCA showed that the performance of the nomogram was better than the single SOFA score and Troponin T. CONCLUSION SIMI is related to the 28-day mortality of septic patients. The nomogram is a well-performed tool to predict accurately the 28-day mortality in patients with SIMI.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kai-Zhi Xu
- Emergency and Critical Care Center, Intensive Care Unit, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital, Affiliated People’s Hospital, Hangzhou Medical College, Hangzhou, 310000 China
| | - Ping Xu
- Emergency and Critical Care Center, Intensive Care Unit, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital, Affiliated People’s Hospital, Hangzhou Medical College, Hangzhou, 310000 China
| | - Juan-Juan li
- Emergency and Critical Care Center, Intensive Care Unit, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital, Affiliated People’s Hospital, Hangzhou Medical College, Hangzhou, 310000 China
| | - A-Fang Zuo
- Emergency and Critical Care Center, Intensive Care Unit, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital, Affiliated People’s Hospital, Hangzhou Medical College, Hangzhou, 310000 China
| | - Shu-Bao Wang
- Emergency and Critical Care Center, Intensive Care Unit, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital, Affiliated People’s Hospital, Hangzhou Medical College, Hangzhou, 310000 China
| | - Fang Han
- Emergency and Critical Care Center, Intensive Care Unit, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital, Affiliated People’s Hospital, Hangzhou Medical College, Hangzhou, 310000 China
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Zou K, Huang S, Ren W, Xu H, Zhang W, Shi X, Shi L, Zhong X, Peng Y, Lü M, Tang X. Development and Validation of a Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting in-Hospital Mortality in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study in the Intensive Care Unit. Int J Gen Med 2023; 16:2541-2553. [PMID: 37351008 PMCID: PMC10284301 DOI: 10.2147/ijgm.s409812] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2023] [Accepted: 06/04/2023] [Indexed: 06/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Purpose The aim of this study is to develop and validate a predictive model for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) based on the intensive care database. Patients and Methods We analyzed the data of patients with AP in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) database and Electronic Intensive Care Unit Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD). Then, patients from MIMIC-IV were divided into a development group and a validation group according to the ratio of 8:2, and eICU-CRD was assigned as an external validation group. Univariate logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression were used for screening the best predictors, and multivariate logistic regression was used to establish a dynamic nomogram. We evaluated the discrimination, calibration, and clinical efficacy of the nomogram, and compared the performance of the nomogram with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score and Bedside Index of Severity in AP (BISAP) score. Results A total of 1030 and 514 patients with AP in MIMIC-IV database and eICU-CRD were included in the study. After stepwise analysis, 8 out of a total of 37 variables were selected to construct the nomogram. The dynamic nomogram can be obtained by visiting https://model.sci-inn.com/KangZou/. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the nomogram was 0.859, 0.871, and 0.847 in the development, internal, and external validation set respectively. The nomogram had a similar performance with APACHE-II (AUC = 0.841, p = 0.537) but performed better than BISAP (AUC = 0.690, p = 0.001) score in the validation group. Moreover, the calibration curve presented a satisfactory predictive accuracy, and the decision curve analysis suggested great clinical application value of the nomogram. Conclusion Based on the results of internal and external validation, the nomogram showed favorable discrimination, calibration, and clinical practicability in predicting the in-hospital mortality of patients with AP.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kang Zou
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
| | - Shu Huang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Lianshui County People’ Hospital, Huaian, People’s Republic of China
- Department of Gastroenterology, Lianshui People’ Hospital of Kangda College Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, People’s Republic of China
| | - Wensen Ren
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
| | - Huan Xu
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
| | - Wei Zhang
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
| | - Xiaomin Shi
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
| | - Lei Shi
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
| | - Xiaolin Zhong
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
| | - Yan Peng
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
| | - Muhan Lü
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
| | - Xiaowei Tang
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China
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Teng TZJ, Chua BQY, Lim PK, Chan KS, Shelat VG. Occam’s razor or Hickam’s dictum-COVID-19 is not a textbook aetiology of acute pancreatitis: A modified Naranjo Score appraisal. World J Gastroenterol 2023; 29:2050-2063. [PMID: 37155526 PMCID: PMC10122789 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v29.i13.2050] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2022] [Revised: 02/21/2023] [Accepted: 03/21/2023] [Indexed: 04/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a disease spectrum ranging from mild to severe disease. During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, numerous reports of AP have been published, with most authors concluding a causal relationship between COVID-19 and AP. Retrospective case reports or small case series are unable to accurately determine the cause-effect relationship between COVID-19 and AP.
AIM To establish whether COVID-19 is a cause of AP using the modified Naranjo scoring system.
METHODS A systematic review was conducted on PubMed, World of Science and Embase for articles reporting COVID-19 and AP from inception to August 2021. Exclusion criteria were cases of AP which were not reported to be due to COVID-19 infection, age < 18 years old, review articles and retrospective cohort studies. The original 10-item Naranjo scoring system (total score 13) was devised to approximate the likelihood of a clinical presentation to be secondary to an adverse drug reaction. We modified the original scoring system into a 8-item modified Naranjo scoring system (total score 9) to determine the cause-effect relationship between COVID-19 and AP. A cumulative score was decided for each case presented in the included articles. Interpretation of the modified Naranjo scoring system is as follows: ≤ 3: Doubtful, 4-6: Possible, ≥ 7: Probable cause.
RESULTS The initial search resulted in 909 articles, with 740 articles after removal of duplicates. A total of 67 articles were included in the final analysis, with 76 patients which had AP reported to be due to COVID-19. The mean age was 47.8 (range 18-94) years. Majority of patients (73.3%) had ≤ 7 d between onset of COVID-19 infection and diagnosis of AP. There were only 45 (59.2%) patients who had adequate investigations to rule out common aetiologies (gallstones, choledocholithiasis, alcohol, hypertriglyceridemia, hypercalcemia and trauma) of AP. Immunoglobulin G4 testing was conducted in 9 (13.5%) patients to rule out autoimmune AP. Only 5 (6.6%) patients underwent endoscopic ultrasound and/or magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatogram to rule out occult microlithiasis, pancreatic malignancy and pancreas divisum. None of the patients had other recently diagnosed viral infections apart from COVID-19 infection, or underwent genetic testing to rule out hereditary AP. There were 32 (42.1%), 39 (51.3%) and 5 (6.6%) patients with doubtful, possible, and probable cause-effect relationship respectively between COVID-19 and AP.
CONCLUSION Current evidence is weak to establish a strong link between COVID-19 and AP. Investigations should be performed to rule out other causes of AP before establishing COVID-19 as an aetiology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas Zheng Jie Teng
- Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 308232, Singapore
- Department of General Surgery, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore 308433, Singapore
| | - Branden Qi Yu Chua
- Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 308232, Singapore
- Department of General Surgery, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore 308433, Singapore
| | - Puay Khim Lim
- Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 308232, Singapore
- Department of General Surgery, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore 308433, Singapore
| | - Kai Siang Chan
- Department of General Surgery, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore 308433, Singapore
| | - Vishal G Shelat
- Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 308232, Singapore
- Department of General Surgery, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore 308433, Singapore
- Surgical Science Training Centre, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore 308433, Singapore
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Zhao Y, Xia W, Lu Y, Chen W, Zhao Y, Zhuang Y. Predictive value of the C-reactive protein/albumin ratio in severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis. Front Surg 2023; 9:1026604. [PMID: 36704518 PMCID: PMC9871615 DOI: 10.3389/fsurg.2022.1026604] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2022] [Accepted: 11/22/2022] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Aim To investigate the predictive value of C-reactive protein (CRP) to serum albumin (ALB) ratio in the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP), and compare the predictive value of the CRP/ALB ratio with the Ranson score, modified computed tomography severity index (MCTSI) score, and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score. Methods This cohort study retrospectively analyzed clinical data of AP patients from August 2018 to August 2020 in our hospital. Logistic regression analysis was utilized to determine the effects of CRP/ALB ratio, Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP score on severe AP (SAP), pancreatic necrosis, organ failure, and death. The predictive values of CRP/ALB ratio, Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP score were examined with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. DeLong test was used to compare the AUCs between CRP/ALB ratio, Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP score. Results Totally, 284 patients were included in this study, of which 35 AP patients (12.32%) developed SAP, 29 (10.21%) organ failure, 30 (10.56%) pancreatic necrosis and 11 (3.87%) died. The result revealed that CRP/ALB ratio on day 2 was associated with SAP [odds ratio (OR): 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32 to 2.29], death (OR: 1.73, 95%CI: 1.24 to 2.41), pancreatic necrosis (OR: 1.28, 95%CI: 1.08 to 1.50), and organ failure (OR: 1.43, 95%CI: 1.18 to 1.73) in AP patients. Similarly, CRP/ALB on day 3 was related to a higher risk of SAP (OR: 1.50, 95%CI: 1.24 to 1.81), death (OR: 1.8, 95%CI: 1.34 to 2.65), pancreatic necrosis (OR: 1.22, 95%CI: 1.04 to 1.42), and organ failure (OR: 1.21, 95%CI: 1.04 to 1.41). The predictive value of CRP/ALB ratio for pancreatic necrosis was lower than that of MCTSI, for organ failure was lower than that of Ranson and BISAP, and for death was higher than that of MCTSI. Conclusion The CRP/ALB ratio may be a novel but promising, easily measurable, reproducible, non-invasive prognostic score that can be used to predict SAP, death, pancreatic necrosis, and organ failure in AP patients, which can be a supplement of Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP scores.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yi Zhao
- Department of Emergency, Shanghai Tenth People’s Hospital of Tongji University, Shanghai, China
| | - Wenwen Xia
- Department of Gastroenterology, Shanghai Tenth People’s Hospital of Tongji University, Shanghai, China
| | - You Lu
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Shanghai Tenth People’s Hospital of Tongji University, Shanghai, China
| | - Wei Chen
- Department of Gastroenterology, Shanghai Tenth People’s Hospital of Tongji University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yan Zhao
- Department of Gastroenterology, Shanghai Tenth People’s Hospital of Tongji University, Shanghai, China,Correspondence: Yan Zhao Yugang Zhuang
| | - Yugang Zhuang
- Department of Emergency, Shanghai Tenth People’s Hospital of Tongji University, Shanghai, China,Correspondence: Yan Zhao Yugang Zhuang
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9
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Chan KS, Shelat VG. Diagnosis, severity stratification and management of adult acute pancreatitis–current evidence and controversies. World J Gastrointest Surg 2022; 14:1179-1197. [PMID: 36504520 PMCID: PMC9727576 DOI: 10.4240/wjgs.v14.i11.1179] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2022] [Revised: 10/08/2022] [Accepted: 10/25/2022] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a disease spectrum ranging from mild to severe with an unpredictable natural course. Majority of cases (80%) are mild and self-limiting. However, severe AP (SAP) has a mortality risk of up to 30%. Establishing aetiology and risk stratification are essential pillars of clinical care. Idiopathic AP is a diagnosis of exclusion which should only be used after extended investigations fail to identify a cause. Tenets of management of mild AP include pain control and management of aetiology to prevent recurrence. In SAP, patients should be resuscitated with goal-directed fluid therapy using crystalloids and admitted to critical care unit. Routine prophylactic antibiotics have limited clinical benefit and should not be given in SAP. Patients able to tolerate oral intake should be given early enteral nutrition rather than nil by mouth or parenteral nutrition. If unable to tolerate per-orally, nasogastric feeding may be attempted and routine post-pyloric feeding has limited evidence of clinical benefit. Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatogram should be selectively performed in patients with biliary obstruction or suspicion of acute cholangitis. Delayed step-up strategy including percutaneous retroperitoneal drainage, endoscopic debridement, or minimal-access necrosectomy are sufficient in most SAP patients. Patients should be monitored for diabetes mellitus and pseudocyst.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kai Siang Chan
- Department of General Surgery, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore 308433, Singapore
| | - Vishal G Shelat
- Department of General Surgery, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore 308433, Singapore
- Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 308232, Singapore
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117597, Singapore
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10
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Lee BJH, Yap QV, Low JK, Chan YH, Shelat VG. Cholecystectomy for asymptomatic gallstones: Markov decision tree analysis. World J Clin Cases 2022; 10:10399-10412. [PMID: 36312509 PMCID: PMC9602237 DOI: 10.12998/wjcc.v10.i29.10399] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2022] [Revised: 05/13/2022] [Accepted: 09/01/2022] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Gallstones are a common public health problem, especially in developed countries. There are an increasing number of patients who are diagnosed with gallstones due to increasing awareness and liberal use of imaging, with 22.6%-80% of gallstone patients being asymptomatic at the time of diagnosis. Despite being asymptomatic, this group of patients are still at life-long risk of developing symptoms and complications such as acute cholangitis and acute biliary pancreatitis. Hence, while early prophylactic cholecystectomy may have some benefits in selected groups of patients, the current standard practice is to recommend cholecystectomy only after symptoms or complications occur. After reviewing the current evidence about the natural course of asymptomatic gallstones, complications of cholecystectomy, quality of life outcomes, and economic outcomes, we recommend that the option of cholecystectomy should be discussed with all asymptomatic gallstone patients. Disclosure of material information is essential for patients to make an informed choice for prophylactic cholecystectomy. It is for the patient to decide on watchful waiting or prophylactic cholecystectomy, and not for the medical community to make a blanket policy of watchful waiting for asymptomatic gallstone patients. For patients with high-risk profiles, it is clinically justifiable to advocate cholecystectomy to minimize the likelihood of morbidity due to complications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brian Juin Hsien Lee
- Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore S308232, Singapore
| | - Qai Ven Yap
- Biostatistics Unit, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore S117597, Singapore
| | - Jee Keem Low
- Department of General Surgery, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore S308433, Singapore
| | - Yiong Huak Chan
- Biostatistics Unit, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore S117597, Singapore
| | - Vishal G Shelat
- Department of General Surgery, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore S308433, Singapore
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11
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Asfuroğlu Kalkan E, Kalkan Ç, Kaçar S, Barutçu S, Yüksel M, Güçbey Türker Ö, Göre B, Canlı T, Asfuroğlu U, Barutçu Asfuroğlu B, Hamamcı M, Kılıç V, Köseoğlu T, Özaslan E, Ödemiş B, Kılıç M, Yüksel İ, Ersoy O, Altıparmak E, Ateş İ, Soykan İ. Similarities and Differences Between Gerontal and Young Patients with Acute Pancreatitis: Evaluation of Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes. Turk J Gastroenterol 2022; 33:874-884. [PMID: 36205509 PMCID: PMC9623137 DOI: 10.5152/tjg.2022.22227] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
Background: Acute pancreatitis is an abrupt inflammatory disease of the exocrine pancreas and it can occur in different severities. It is becoming more common and more mortal in the gerontal population. The aim of our study was to explore the similarities and differences between young and gerontal patients with acute pancreatitis, with a special emphasis on patients over 80 years of age. Methods: Medical records of patients (n = 1150) with acute pancreatitis were analyzed retrospectively. Several scoring systems including Bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis, Ranson’s score, Harmless acute pancreatitis score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation, Balthazar Grade, Glasgow score, and Japanese severity score were applied at admission. Patients were divided into 3 groups; group I, young group (n = 706), if they were aged <65 years; group II, older group (n = 338), if they were aged ≥65 years to <80 years; group III, octogenarian group (n = 106), if they were aged ≥ 0 years. Results: In total, 1150 patients with acute pancreatitis were analyzed. Octogenarian group (n = 42, 39.6%) showed a more severe acute pancreatitis compared to patients in group I (n = 15, 2.1%) and II (n = 50, 14.8%, P < .001). Complications were more common in patients in group III (P < .001). Mortality rate was higher in patients in group III (n = 53, 50%) compared to group I (n = 8, 1.1%) and group II (n = 53, 15.7%) (P < .001). Conclusion: Gerontal patients with acute pancreatitis tend to have more severe disease and systemic and local complications. Mortality rates were higher in older patients compared to younger patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emra Asfuroğlu Kalkan
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ankara City Hospital, Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Çağdaş Kalkan
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ankara City Hospital, Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Sabite Kaçar
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ankara City Hospital, Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Sezgin Barutçu
- Department of Gastroenterology, Gaziantep University Hospital, Gaziantep, Turkey
| | - Mahmut Yüksel
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ankara City Hospital, Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Özge Güçbey Türker
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ankara City Hospital, Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Burak Göre
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ankara City Hospital, Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Tolga Canlı
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ankara City Hospital, Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Umut Asfuroğlu
- Department of Radiology, Ministry of Health, Abdulkadir Yüksel Hospital, Gaziantep, Turkey
| | | | - Mevlüt Hamamcı
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ankara City Hospital, Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Vedat Kılıç
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ankara City Hospital, Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Tankut Köseoğlu
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ankara City Hospital, Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Ersan Özaslan
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ankara City Hospital, Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Bülent Ödemiş
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ankara City Hospital, Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Mesut Kılıç
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ankara City Hospital, Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey
| | - İlhami Yüksel
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ankara City Hospital, Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Osman Ersoy
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ankara City Hospital, Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Emin Altıparmak
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ankara City Hospital, Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey
| | - İhsan Ateş
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ankara City Hospital, Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey
| | - İrfan Soykan
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ankara University Faculty of Medicine, İbni-Sina Hospital, Ankara, Turkey,Corresponding author: İrfan Soykan, e-mail:
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12
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Liengswangwong W, Preechakul P, Yuksen C, Jenpanitpong C, Tienpratarn W, Watcharakitpaisan S. Clinical Prediction Score for Early Diagnosis of Acute Pancreatitis in Emergency Departments. OAEM 2022; 14:355-366. [PMID: 35924030 PMCID: PMC9342661 DOI: 10.2147/oaem.s371237] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2022] [Accepted: 07/16/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background In Thailand, most primary care hospitals cannot measure serum lipase and amylase; no 24 hours computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging available, and no on-call gastroenterologists. Thus, acute pancreatitis cannot be diagnosed based on the established diagnostic criteria that require this information. The resultant delayed management increases morbidity and mortality. This study was performed to create a clinical prediction score for early diagnosis of acute pancreatitis in emergency departments without requiring a computed tomography scan or laboratory measurement to assist in the initial diagnosis, treatment, or referral. Methods Patients with suspected acute pancreatitis who had available data regarding lipase and amylase measurements and visited the emergency department from June 2019 to August 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. The baseline predictive factors were compared between patients with and without acute pancreatitis according to the 2012 revised Atlanta classification. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore potential predictive factors and develop a clinical prediction score for the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis. Results A total of 506 eligible patients, 84 (16%) had acute pancreatitis. The PRE-PAN score [area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, 0.88; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.84–0.93] included six factors: alcohol drinking, epigastric pain, pain radiating to the back, persistent pain, nausea or vomiting, and the pain score. A score of >7.5 points suggested a high probability of acute pancreatitis [positive likelihood ratio, 6.80 (95% CI, 4.75–9.34; p < 0.001); sensitivity, 66.7% (95% CI, 54.6–77.3); specificity, 90.2% (95% CI, 86.6–93.1); positive predictive value, 58.5% (95% CI, 47.1–69.3);, 92.9% (95% CI, 89.6–95.4)]. Conclusion A PRE-PAN risk score is a screening tool for predicting acute pancreatitis without using the lipase concentration or radiological findings. A high predictive score, especially >7.5, suggests a high probability of acute pancreatitis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wijittra Liengswangwong
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Pacharaporn Preechakul
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Chaiyaporn Yuksen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
- Correspondence: Chaiyaporn Yuksen, Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand, Email
| | - Chetsadakon Jenpanitpong
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Welawat Tienpratarn
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Sorawich Watcharakitpaisan
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
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13
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Juneja D. Ideal scoring system for acute pancreatitis: Quest for the Holy Grail. World J Crit Care Med 2022; 11:198-200. [PMID: 36331986 PMCID: PMC9136720 DOI: 10.5492/wjccm.v11.i3.198] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2021] [Revised: 01/12/2022] [Accepted: 03/27/2022] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Clinical scoring systems are required to predict complications, severity, need for intensive care unit admission, and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis. Over the years, many scores have been developed, tested, and compared for their efficacy and accuracy. An ideal score should be rapid, reliable, and validated in different patient populations and geographical areas and should not lose relevance over time. A combination of scores or serial monitoring of a single score may increase their efficacy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Deven Juneja
- Institute of Critical Care Medicine, Max Super Speciality Hospital, Saket, New Delhi 110017, India
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14
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Lu Z, Chen X, Ge H, Li M, Feng B, Wang D, Guo F, Caronna R. Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio in Patients with Hypertriglyceridemic Pancreatitis Predicts Persistent Organ Failure. Gastroenterol Res Pract 2022; 2022:1-8. [PMID: 35340692 PMCID: PMC8942680 DOI: 10.1155/2022/8333794] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2021] [Revised: 02/18/2022] [Accepted: 03/02/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been proposed as a surrogate marker of inflammation with prognostic value in various diseases. Our objective was to investigate the predictive value of the NLR as an indicator of persistent organ failure (POF) in patients with hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis (HTGP). Methods We retrospectively reviewed the data from patients with HTGP between 2016 and 2019. The NLR was obtained at admission. The diagnostic performance of the NLR for POF was evaluated by the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUROC). Multivariate logistic regression determined whether elevated NLR was independently associated with POF. Results Of the 446 patients enrolled, 89 (20.0%) developed POF. Patients with POF showed a significantly higher NLR than those without POF (P < 0.001). A positive trend for the association across increasing NLR quartiles and the incidence of POF was observed (Ptrend < 0.001). The AUROC of NLR to predict POF was 0.673 (95% confidence interval, 0.627-0.716). With a cut-off of NLR > 6.56, the sensitivity and specificity were 73.0% and 55.7%, respectively. Multivariate analysis suggested that high NLR (>6.56) was independently associated with POF (odds ratio, 2.580; 95% confidence interval, 1.439-4.626; P = 0.001). Patients with a high NLR (>6.56) had a worse overall clinical course in HTGP. Conclusion Elevated NLR was significantly associated with an increased risk of developing POF and could be an early independent predictor of POF in patients with HTGP.
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15
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Shen X, Chen Y, Chen Y, Liang H, Li G, Hao Z. Is the METS-IR Index a Potential New Biomarker for Kidney Stone Development? Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) 2022; 13:914812. [PMID: 35909543 PMCID: PMC9329808 DOI: 10.3389/fendo.2022.914812] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2022] [Accepted: 05/31/2022] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to examine whether the METS-IR index is associated with kidney stones in American adults. METHOD Participants from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database from 2007-2018 were selected for logistic regression analysis, subgroup analyses, and the calculation of dose-response curves to assess the association between the METS-IR index and the incidence of kidney stones. RESULT This study enrolled 30,612 adults aged >20 years, 2901 of whom self-reported having had kidney stones in the past. And, after controlling for potential confounders, each unit increase in the METS-IR index was linked with a 1.23 percent rise in kidney stone incidence (OR= 1.0123, 95% CI: 1.0092 - 1.0155), with stratified analysis indicating that this was true in all subgroups. Between all groups, an elevated METS-IR index was related to kidney stone formation, and the dose-response curve revealed a positive non-linear connection between METS-IR index and kidney stone risk, with a threshold effect analysis revealing an inflection point value of 50.8314. CONCLUSION Higher METS-IR index is associated with the occurrence of kidney stones,and while no causative association can be shown, this is cause for concern.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xudong Shen
- Department of Urology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei City, China
- Institute of Urology, Anhui Medical University, Hefei City, China
- Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Genitourinary Diseases, Anhui Medical University, Hefei City, China
| | - Yang Chen
- Department of Urology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei City, China
- Institute of Urology, Anhui Medical University, Hefei City, China
- Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Genitourinary Diseases, Anhui Medical University, Hefei City, China
| | - Yan Chen
- Department of General Practice, Wuhu City Second People`s Hospital, Wuhu City, China
| | - Hu Liang
- Department of Urology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei City, China
- Institute of Urology, Anhui Medical University, Hefei City, China
- Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Genitourinary Diseases, Anhui Medical University, Hefei City, China
| | - Guoxiang Li
- Department of Urology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei City, China
- Institute of Urology, Anhui Medical University, Hefei City, China
- Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Genitourinary Diseases, Anhui Medical University, Hefei City, China
| | - Zongyao Hao
- Department of Urology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei City, China
- Institute of Urology, Anhui Medical University, Hefei City, China
- Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Genitourinary Diseases, Anhui Medical University, Hefei City, China
- *Correspondence: Zongyao Hao,
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