Antimicrobial resistance of Streptococcus pneumoniae from invasive pneumococcal diseases in Latin American countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Invasive pneumococcal disease has declined since pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). However, serotype distribution and antimicrobial resistance patterns have changed.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review to evaluate the frequency of antimicrobial resistance of Streptococcus pneumoniae from invasive disease in LAC. Articles published between 1 January 2000, and 27 December 2022, with no language restriction, were searched in major databases and gray literature. Pairs of reviewers independently selected extracted data and assessed the risk of bias in the studies. The quality of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) studies was evaluated according to WHO recommendations (PROSPERO CRD42023392097).

Results

From 8,600 records identified, 103 studies were included, with 49,660 positive samples of S. pneumoniae for AMR analysis processed. Most studies were from Brazil (29.1%) and Argentina (18.4%), were cross-sectional (57.3%), reported data on AMR from IPD cases (52.4%), and were classified as moderate risk of bias (50.5%). Resistance to penicillin was 21.7% (95%IC 18.7-25.0, I2: 95.9), and for ceftriaxone/cefotaxime it was 4.7% (95%IC 3.2-6.9, I2: 96.1). The highest resistance for both penicillin and ceftriaxone/cefotaxime was in the age group of 0 to 5 years (32.1% [95%IC 28.2-36.4, I2: 87.7], and 9.7% [95%IC 5.9-15.6, I2: 96.9] respectively). The most frequent serotypes associated with resistance were 14 for penicillin and 19A for ceftriaxone/cefotaxime.

Conclusion

Approximately one-quarter of invasive pneumococcal disease isolates in Latin America and the Caribbean displayed penicillin resistance, with higher rates in young children. Ongoing surveillance is essential to monitor serotype evolution and antimicrobial resistance patterns following pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction.

Progestogens for prevention of luteinising hormone (LH) surge in women undergoing controlled ovarian hyperstimulation as part of an assisted reproductive technology (ART) cycle

BACKGROUND

Currently, gonadotrophin releasing hormone (GnRH) analogues are used to prevent premature ovulation in ART cycles. However, their costs remain high, the route of administration is invasive and has some adverse effects. Oral progestogens could be cheaper and effective to prevent a premature LH surge.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of using progestogens to avoid spontaneous ovulation in women undergoing controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH).

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Gynaecology and Fertility Group trials register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase and PsycINFO in Dec 2021. We contacted study authors and experts to identify additional studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that included progestogens for ovulation inhibition in women undergoing controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH).

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard methodological procedures recommended by Cochrane, including the risk of bias (RoB) assessment. The primary review outcomes were live birth rate (LBR) and oocyte pick-up cancellation rate (OPCR). Secondary outcomes were clinical pregnancy rate (CPR), cumulative pregnancy, miscarriage rate (MR), multiple pregnancies, LH surge, total and MII oocytes, days of stimulation, dose of gonadotropins, and moderate/severe ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS) rate. The primary analyses were restricted to studies at overall low and some concerns RoB, and sensitivity analysis included all studies. We used the GRADE approach to assess the certainty of evidence.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 14 RCTs (2643 subfertile women undergoing ART, 47 women used oocyte freezing for fertility preservation and 534 oocyte donors). Progestogens versus GnRH antagonists We are very uncertain of the effect of medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) 10 mg compared with cetrorelix on the LBR in poor responders (odds ratio (OR) 1.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73 to 2.13, one RCT, N = 340, very-low-certainty evidence), suggesting that if the chance of live birth following GnRH antagonists is assumed to be 18%, the chance following MPA would be 14% to 32%. There may be little or no difference in OPCR between progestogens and GnRH antagonists, but due to wide Cs (CIs), we are uncertain (OR 0.92, 95%CI 0.42 to 2.01, 3 RCTs, N = 648, I² = 0%, low-certainty evidence), changing the chance of OPCR from 4% with progestogens to 2% to 8%. Given the imprecision found, no conclusions can be retrieved on CPR and MR. Low-quality evidence suggested that using micronised progesterone in normo-responders may increase by 2 to 6 the MII oocytes in comparison to GnRH antagonists. There may be little or no differences in gonadotropin doses. Progestogens versus GnRH agonists Results were uncertain for all outcomes comparing progestogens with GnRH agonists. One progestogen versus another progestogen The analyses comparing one progestogen versus another progestogen for LBR did not meet our criteria for primary analyses. The OPCR was probably lower in the MPA 10 mg in comparison to MPA 4 mg (OR 2.27, 95%CI 0.90 to 5.74, one RCT, N = 300, moderate-certainty evidence), and MPA 4 mg may be lower than micronised progesterone 100 mg, but due to wide CI, we are uncertain of the effect (OR 0.81, 95%CI 0.43 to 1.53, one RCT, N = 300, low-certainty evidence), changing the chance of OPCR from 5% with MPA 4 mg to 5% to22%, and from 17% with micronised progesterone 100 mg to 8% to 24%. When comparing dydrogesterone 20 mg to MPA, the OPCR is probably lower in the dydrogesterone group in comparison to MPA 10 mg (OR 1.49, 95%CI 0.80 to 2.80, one RCT, N = 520, moderate-certainty evidence), and it may be lower in dydrogesterone group in comparison to MPA 4 mg but due to wide confidence interval, we are uncertain of the effect (OR 1.19, 95%CI 0.61 to 2.34, one RCT, N = 300, low-certainty evidence), changing the chance of OPCR from 7% with dydrogesterone 20 to 6-17%, and in MPA 4 mg from 12% to 8% to 24%. When comparing dydrogesterone 20 mg to micronised progesterone 100 mg, the OPCR is probably lower in the dydrogesterone group (OR 1.54, 95%CI 0.94 to 2.52, two RCTs, N=550, I² = 0%, moderate-certainty evidence), changing OPCR from 11% with dydrogesterone to 10% to 24%. We are very uncertain of the effect in normo-responders of micronised progesterone 100 mg compared with micronised progesterone 200 mg on the OPCR (OR 0.35, 95%CI 0.09 to 1.37, one RCT, N = 150, very-low-certainty evidence). There is probably little or no difference in CPR and MR between MPA 10 mg and dydrogesterone 20 mg. There may be little or no differences in MII oocytes and gonadotropins doses. No cases of moderate/severe OHSS were reported in most of the groups in any of the comparisons.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Little or no differences in LBR may exist when comparing MPA 4 mg with GnRH agonists in normo-responders. OPCR may be slightly increased in the MPA 4 mg group, but MPA 4 mg reduces the doses of gonadotropins in comparison to GnRH agonists. Little or no differences in OPCR may exist between progestogens and GnRH antagonists in normo-responders and donors. However, micronised progesterone could improve by 2 to 6 MII oocytes. When comparing one progestogen to another, dydrogesterone suggested slightly lower OPCR than MPA and micronised progesterone, and MPA suggested slightly lower OPCR than the micronised progesterone 100 mg. Finally, MPA 10 mg suggests a lower OPCR than MPA 4 mg. There is uncertainty regarding the rest of the outcomes due to imprecision and no solid conclusions can be drawn.

Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Deaths Attributable to Antimicrobial Resistance, Latin America

Antimicrobial resistance is a pressing global health concern, leading to 4.95 million deaths in 2019. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the lethality attributed to infections caused by multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) in Latin America and the Caribbean. A comprehensive search of major databases retrieved relevant studies from 2000-2022. We included 54 observational studies, primarily from Brazil, Argentina, and Colombia. The most commonly studied organism was methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. The overall unadjusted case fatality rate related to MDROs was 45.0%; higher adjusted lethality was observed in persons infected with MDROs than in those infected with other pathogens (adjusted odds ratio 1.93, 95% CI 1.58-2.37). A higher lethality rate was seen in patients who did not receive appropriate empirical treatment (odds ratio 2.27, 95% CI 1.44-3.56). These findings underscore the increased lethality associated with antimicrobial resistance in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Personalized embryo transfer guided by endometrial receptivity analysis: a systematic review with meta-analysis

STUDY QUESTION

Does a personalized embryo transfer (pET) guided by tests for endometrial receptivity (TER) increase the effectiveness of ART procedures?

SUMMARY ANSWER

The use of TER-guided pET is not supported by current published evidence in women without repeated implantation failure (RIF), while in women with RIF more research is needed to assess a potential benefit.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Implantation rates are still far from ideal, especially in some patients that have RIF with good-quality embryos. As a potential solution, a wide range of diverse TER use different sets of genes to identify displacements of the window of implantation to adjust the individual length of progesterone exposure in a pET.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

A systematic review with meta-analysis was performed. Search terms included endometrial receptivity analysis, ERA, personalized embryo transfer. CENTRAL, PubMed, Embase, reference lists, clinical trials registers, and conference proceedings (search date October 2022) were searched, with no language restrictions.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and cohort studies comparing a pET guided by TER vs standard embryo transfer (sET) in different subgroups that undergo ART were identified. We also investigated pET in non-receptive-TER vs sET in receptive-TER, and pET in a specific population vs sET in a general population. Risk of bias (RoB) was assessed with the Cochrane tool and ROBINS-I. Only those with low/moderate RoB underwent meta-analysis. The GRADE approach was used to evaluate the certainty of evidence (CoE).

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

We screened 2136 studies and included 35 (85% used ERA and 15% used other TER). Two studies were RCTs comparing endometrial receptivity analysis (ERA)-guided pET vs sET in women with no history of RIF. In women without RIF, no important differences (moderate-CoE) were found in live birth rates and clinical pregnancy rates (CPR). We also performed a meta-analysis of four cohort studies that were adjusted for confounding. In agreement with the RCTs, no benefits were found in women without RIF. However, in women with RIF, low CoE suggests that pET might improve the CPR (OR 2.50, 95% CI 1.42-4.40).

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

We found few studies with low RoB. Only two RCTs in women without RIF were published, and none in women with RIF. Furthermore, the heterogeneity observed in populations, interventions, co-interventions, outcomes, comparisons, and procedures limited the pooling of many of the included studies.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

In the population of women without RIF, in agreement with previously published reviews, pET did not prove to be more effective than sET and, therefore, it precludes the routine use of this strategy in this population until more evidence is available. However, more research is advisable in women with RIF as low-certainty evidence from observational studies adjusted for confounders suggests that the CPR might be higher with pET guided by TER in this population. Although this review presents the best available evidence, it is still insufficient to change current policies.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

No specific funding was obtained for this study. There are no conflicts of interest to declare.

REGISTRATION NUMBER

PROSPERO CRD42022299827.

Safety of COVID-19 vaccines during pregnancy: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Assessment of COVID-19 vaccines safety during pregnancy is urgently needed.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the safety of COVID-19 vaccines, including their components and technological platforms used in other vaccines during pregnancy and animal studies to complement direct evidence. We searched literature databases from its inception to September 2021 without language restriction, COVID-19 vaccine websites, and reference lists of other systematic reviews and the included studies. Pairs of reviewers independently selected, data extracted, and assessed the risk of bias of the studies. Discrepancies were resolved by consensus. (PROSPERO CRD42021234185).

Results

We retrieved 8,837 records from the literature search; 71 studies were included, involving 17,719,495 pregnant persons and 389 pregnant animals. Most studies (94%) were conducted in high-income countries, were cohort studies (51%), and 15% were classified as high risk of bias. We identified nine COVID-19 vaccine studies, seven involving 309,164 pregnant persons, mostly exposed to mRNA vaccines. Among non-COVID-19 vaccines, the most frequent exposures were AS03 and aluminum-based adjuvants.

A meta-analysis of studies that adjusted for potential confounders showed no association with adverse outcomes, regardless of the vaccine or the trimester of vaccination.

Neither the reported rates of adverse pregnancy outcomes nor reactogenicity exceeded expected background rates, which was the case for ASO3- or aluminum-adjuvanted non-COVID-19 vaccines in the proportion meta-analyses of uncontrolled studies/arms. The only exception was postpartum hemorrhage after COVID-19 vaccination (10.40%; 95% CI: 6.49-15.10%), reported by two studies; however, the comparison with non-exposed pregnant persons, available for one study, found non-statistically significant differences (adjusted OR 1.09; 95% CI 0.56-2.12). Animal studies showed consistent results with studies in pregnant persons.

Conclusion

We found no safety concerns for currently administered COVID-19 vaccines during pregnancy. Additional experimental and real-world evidence could enhance vaccination coverage. Robust safety data for non-mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines are still needed.

Safety, immunogenicity, and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines for pregnant persons: A protocol for systematic review and meta analysis

INTRODUCTION

Numerous vaccines have been evaluated and approved for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since pregnant persons have been excluded from most clinical trials of COVID-19 vaccines, sufficient data regarding the safety of these vaccines for the pregnant person and their fetus have rarely been available at the time of product licensure. However, as COVID-19 vaccines have been deployed, data on the safety, reactogenicity, immunogenicity, and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines for pregnant persons and neonates are becoming increasingly available. A living systematic review and meta-analysis of the safety and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines for pregnant persons and newborns could provide the information necessary to help guide vaccine policy decisions.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We aim to conduct a living systematic review and meta-analysis based on biweekly searches of medical databases (e.g., MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL) and clinical trial registries to systematically identify relevant studies of COVID-19 vaccines for pregnant persons. Pairs of reviewers will independently select, extract data, and conduct risk of bias assessments. We will include randomized clinical trials, quasi-experimental studies, cohort, case-control, cross-sectional studies, and case reports. Primary outcomes will be the safety, efficacy, and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in pregnant persons, including neonatal outcomes. Secondary outcomes will be immunogenicity and reactogenicity. We will conduct paired meta-analyses, including prespecified subgroup and sensitivity analyses. We will use the grading of recommendations assessment, development, and evaluation approach to evaluate the certainty of evidence.

What does our region need in order to strengthen public policies on sugar-sweetened beverages? decision-makers' dialogue

In order to prioritize public policies to reduce the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in Argentina, Brazil, El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago and to identify information gaps related to the burden of disease attributable to their consumption, a policy dialogue was held with government members, civil society organizations, researchers and communicators from Latin American and Caribbean countries. Presentations and deliberative workshops were conducted using semi-structured data collection tools and group discussions. The prioritized interventions were tax increases, front labeling, restriction of advertising, promotion and sponsorship, and modifications regarding the school environment. The main perceived barrier was the interference from the food industry. This dialogue among decision-makers led to the identification of priority public policies to reduce the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in the region.

Direct evidence gap on fixed versus adjusted-dose benznidazole for adults with chronic Chagas disease without cardiomyopathy: Systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To determine the comparative efficacy and safety of a fixed dose of benznidazole (BZN) with an adjusted-dose for Trypanosoma cruzi-seropositive adults without cardiomyopathy.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis following Cochrane methods, and the PRISMA-IPD statement for reporting. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) allocating participants to fixed or adjusted doses of BZN for T. cruzi-seropositive adults without cardiomyopathy were included. We searched (December 2021) Cochrane, MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS and trial registries and contacted Chagas experts. Selection, data extraction, risk of bias assessment using the Cochrane tool, and a GRADE summary of finding tables were performed independently by pairs of reviewers. We conducted a random-effects IPD meta-analysis using the one-stage strategy, or, if that was impossible, the two-stage strategy.

RESULTS

Five RCTs (1198 patients) were included, none directly comparing fixed with adjusted doses of BZN. Compared to placebo, BZN therapy was strongly associated with negative qPCR and sustainable parasitological clearance regardless of the type of dose and subgroup analysed. For negative qPCR, the fixed/adjusted rate of odds ratios (ROR^F/A ) was 8.83 (95% CI 1.02-76.48); for sustained parasitological clearance, it was 4.60 (95% CI 0.40-52.51), probably indicating at least non-inferior effect of fixed doses, with no statistically significant interactions by scheme for global and most subgroup estimations. The ROR^F/A for treatment interruption due to adverse events was 0.44 (95% CI 0.14-1.38), probably indicating no worse tolerance of fixed doses.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no direct comparison between fixed and adjusted doses of BZN. However, fixed doses versus placebo are probably not inferior to weight-adjusted doses of BZN versus placebo in terms of parasitological efficacy and safety. Network IPD meta-analysis, through indirect comparisons, may well provide the best possible answers in the near future.

REGISTRATION

The study protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42019120905).

Timing of kidney replacement therapy initiation for acute kidney injury

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common condition among patients in intensive care units (ICUs) and is associated with high numbers of deaths. Kidney replacement therapy (KRT) is a blood purification technique used to treat the most severe forms of AKI. The optimal time to initiate KRT so as to improve clinical outcomes remains uncertain. This is an update of a review first published in 2018. This review complements another Cochrane review by the same authors: Intensity of continuous renal replacement therapy for acute kidney injury.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of different timing (early and standard) of KRT initiation on death and recovery of kidney function in critically ill patients with AKI.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Kidney and Transplant's Specialised Register to 4 August 2022 through contact with the Information Specialist using search terms relevant to this review. Studies in the Register are identified through searches of CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, conference proceedings, the International Clinical Trials Register, ClinicalTrials and LILACS to 1 August 2022.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all randomised controlled trials (RCTs). We included all patients with AKI in the ICU regardless of age, comparing early versus standard KRT initiation. For safety and cost outcomes, we planned to include cohort studies and non-RCTs.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Data were extracted independently by two authors. The random-effects model was used, and results were reported as risk ratios(RR) for dichotomous outcomes and mean difference(MD) for continuous outcomes, with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

MAIN RESULTS

We included 12 studies enrolling 4880 participants. Overall, most domains were assessed as being at low or unclear risk of bias. Compared to standard treatment, early KRT initiation may have little to no difference on the risk of death at day 30 (12 studies, 4826 participants: RR 0.97,95% CI 0.87 to 1.09; I²= 29%; low certainty evidence), and death after 30 days (7 studies, 4534 participants: RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.07; I² = 6%; moderate certainty evidence). Early KRT initiation may make little or no difference to the risk of death or non-recovery of kidney function at 90 days (6 studies, 4011 participants: RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.11; I² = 66%; low certainty evidence); CIs included both benefits and harms. Low certainty evidence showed early KRT initiation may make little or no difference to the number of patients who were free from KRT (10 studies, 4717 participants: RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.94 to1.22; I² = 55%) and recovery of kidney function among survivors who were free from KRT after day 30 (10 studies, 2510 participants: RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.07; I² = 69%) compared to standard treatment. High certainty evidence showed early KRT initiation increased the risk of hypophosphataemia (1 study, 2927 participants: RR 1.80, 95% CI 1.33 to 2.44), hypotension (5 studies, 3864 participants: RR 1.54, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.85; I² = 0%), cardiac-rhythm disorder (6 studies, 4483 participants: RR 1.35, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.75; I² = 16%), and infection (5 studies, 4252 participants: RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.77; I² = 0%); however, it is uncertain whether early KRT initiation increases or reduces the number of patients who experienced any adverse events (5 studies, 3983 participants: RR 1.23, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.68; I² = 91%; very low certainty evidence). Moderate certainty evidence showed early KRT initiation probably reduces the number of days in hospital (7 studies, 4589 participants: MD-2.45 days, 95% CI -4.75 to -0.14; I² = 10%) and length of stay in ICU (5 studies, 4240 participants: MD -1.01 days, 95% CI -1.60 to -0.42; I² = 0%).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Based on mainly low to moderate certainty of the evidence, early KRT has no beneficial effect on death and may increase the recovery of kidney function. Earlier KRT probably reduces the length of ICU and hospital stay but increases the risk of adverse events. Further adequate-powered RCTs using robust and validated tools that complement clinical judgement are needed to define the optimal time of KRT in critical patients with AKI in order to improve their outcomes. The surgical AKI population should be considered in future research.

Cleavage-stage versus blastocyst-stage embryo transfer in assisted reproductive technology

BACKGROUND

Advances in embryo culture media have led to a shift in in vitro fertilisation (IVF) practice from cleavage-stage embryo transfer to blastocyst-stage embryo transfer. The rationale for blastocyst-stage transfer is to improve both uterine and embryonic synchronicity and enable self selection of viable embryos, thus resulting in better live birth rates.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether blastocyst-stage (day 5 to 6) embryo transfer improves the live birth rate (LBR) per fresh transfer, and other associated outcomes, compared with cleavage-stage (day 2 to 3) embryo transfer.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Gynaecology and Fertility Group Specialised Register of controlled trials, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, and CINAHL, from inception to October 2021. We also searched registers of ongoing trials and the reference lists of studies retrieved.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) which compared the effectiveness of IVF with blastocyst-stage embryo transfer versus IVF with cleavage-stage embryo transfer.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard methodological procedures recommended by Cochrane. Our primary outcomes were LBR per fresh transfer and cumulative clinical pregnancy rates (cCPR). Secondary outcomes were clinical pregnancy rate (CPR), multiple pregnancy, high-order multiple pregnancy, miscarriage (all following first embryo transfer), failure to transfer embryos, and whether supernumerary embryos were frozen for transfer at a later date (frozen-thawed embryo transfer). We assessed the overall quality of the evidence for the main comparisons using GRADE methods.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 32 RCTs (5821 couples or women). The live birth rate following fresh transfer was higher in the blastocyst-stage transfer group (odds ratio (OR) 1.27, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06 to 1.51; I² = 53%; 15 studies, 2219 women; low-quality evidence). This suggests that if 31% of women achieve live birth after fresh cleavage-stage transfer, between 32% and 41% would do so after fresh blastocyst-stage transfer. We are uncertain whether blastocyst-stage transfer improves the cCPR. A post hoc analysis showed that vitrification could increase the cCPR. This is an interesting finding that warrants further investigation when more studies using vitrification are published. The CPR was also higher in the blastocyst-stage transfer group, following fresh transfer (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.39; I² = 51%; 32 studies, 5821 women; moderate-quality evidence). This suggests that if 39% of women achieve a clinical pregnancy after fresh cleavage-stage transfer, between 42% and 47% will probably do so after fresh blastocyst-stage transfer. We are uncertain whether blastocyst-stage transfer increases multiple pregnancy (OR 1.05, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.33; I² = 30%; 19 studies, 3019 women; low-quality evidence) or miscarriage rates (OR 1.12, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.38; I² = 24%; 22 studies, 4208 women; low-quality evidence). This suggests that if 9% of women have a multiple pregnancy after fresh cleavage-stage transfer, between 8% and 12% would do so after fresh blastocyst-stage transfer. However, a sensitivity analysis restricted only to studies with low or 'some concerns' for risk of bias, in the subgroup of equal number of embryos transferred, showed that blastocyst transfer probably increases the multiple pregnancy rate. Embryo freezing rates (when there are frozen supernumerary embryos for transfer at a later date) were lower in the blastocyst-stage transfer group (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.57; I² = 84%; 14 studies, 2292 women; low-quality evidence). This suggests that if 60% of women have embryos frozen after cleavage-stage transfer, between 37% and 46% would do so after blastocyst-stage transfer. Failure to transfer any embryos was higher in the blastocyst transfer group (OR 2.50, 95% CI 1.76 to 3.55; I² = 36%; 17 studies, 2577 women; moderate-quality evidence). This suggests that if 1% of women have no embryos transferred in planned fresh cleavage-stage transfer, between 2% and 4% probably have no embryos transferred in planned fresh blastocyst-stage transfer. The evidence was of low quality for most outcomes. The main limitations were serious imprecision and serious risk of bias, associated with failure to describe acceptable methods of randomisation.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is low-quality evidence for live birth and moderate-quality evidence for clinical pregnancy that fresh blastocyst-stage transfer is associated with higher rates of both than fresh cleavage-stage transfer. We are uncertain whether blastocyst-stage transfer improves the cCPR derived from fresh and frozen-thawed cycles following a single oocyte retrieval. Although there is a benefit favouring blastocyst-stage transfer in fresh cycles, more evidence is needed to know whether the stage of transfer impacts on cumulative live birth and pregnancy rates. Future RCTs should report rates of live birth, cumulative live birth, and miscarriage. They should also evaluate women with a poor prognosis to enable those undergoing assisted reproductive technology (ART) and service providers to make well-informed decisions on the best treatment option available.

Vaccines to prevent COVID-19: A living systematic review with Trial Sequential Analysis and network meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 is rapidly spreading causing extensive burdens across the world. Effective vaccines to prevent COVID-19 are urgently needed.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Our objective was to assess the effectiveness and safety of COVID-19 vaccines through analyses of all currently available randomized clinical trials. We searched the databases CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, and other sources from inception to June 17, 2021 for randomized clinical trials assessing vaccines for COVID-19. At least two independent reviewers screened studies, extracted data, and assessed risks of bias. We conducted meta-analyses, network meta-analyses, and Trial Sequential Analyses (TSA). Our primary outcomes included all-cause mortality, vaccine efficacy, and serious adverse events. We assessed the certainty of evidence with GRADE. We identified 46 trials; 35 trials randomizing 219 864 participants could be included in our analyses. Our meta-analyses showed that mRNA vaccines (efficacy, 95% [95% confidence interval (CI), 92% to 97%]; 71 514 participants; 3 trials; moderate certainty); inactivated vaccines (efficacy, 61% [95% CI, 52% to 68%]; 48 029 participants; 3 trials; moderate certainty); protein subunit vaccines (efficacy, 77% [95% CI, -5% to 95%]; 17 737 participants; 2 trials; low certainty); and viral vector vaccines (efficacy 68% [95% CI, 61% to 74%]; 71 401 participants; 5 trials; low certainty) prevented COVID-19. Viral vector vaccines decreased mortality (risk ratio, 0.25 [95% CI 0.09 to 0.67]; 67 563 participants; 3 trials, low certainty), but comparable data on inactivated, mRNA, and protein subunit vaccines were imprecise. None of the vaccines showed evidence of a difference on serious adverse events, but observational evidence suggested rare serious adverse events. All the vaccines increased the risk of non-serious adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence suggests that all the included vaccines are effective in preventing COVID-19. The mRNA vaccines seem most effective in preventing COVID-19, but viral vector vaccines seem most effective in reducing mortality. Further trials and longer follow-up are necessary to provide better insight into the safety profile of these vaccines.

Calcium supplementation for prevention of primary hypertension

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is a major public health problem that increases the risk of cardiovascular and kidney diseases. Several studies have shown an inverse association between calcium intake and blood pressure, as small reductions in blood pressure have been shown to produce rapid reductions in vascular disease risk even in individuals with normal blood pressure ranges. This is the first update of the review to evaluate the effect of calcium supplementation in normotensive individuals as a preventive health measure.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the efficacy and safety of calcium supplementation versus placebo or control for reducing blood pressure in normotensive people and for the prevention of primary hypertension.

SEARCH METHODS

The Cochrane Hypertension Information Specialist searched the following databases for randomised controlled trials up to September 2020: the Cochrane Hypertension Specialised Register, CENTRAL (2020, Issue 9), Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and the US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register, ClinicalTrials.gov. We also contacted authors of relevant papers regarding further published and unpublished work. The searches had no language restrictions.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We selected trials that randomised normotensive people to dietary calcium interventions such as supplementation or food fortification versus placebo or control. We excluded quasi-random designs. The primary outcomes were hypertension (defined as blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mmHg) and blood pressure measures.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently selected trials for inclusion, abstracted the data and assessed the risks of bias. We used the GRADE approach to assess the certainty of evidence.

MAIN RESULTS

The 2020 updated search identified four new trials. We included a total of 20 trials with 3512 participants, however we only included 18 for the meta-analysis with 3140 participants. None of the studies reported hypertension as a dichotomous outcome. The effect on systolic and diastolic blood pressure was: mean difference (MD) -1.37 mmHg, 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.08, -0.66; 3140 participants; 18 studies; I2 = 0%, high-certainty evidence; and MD -1.45, 95% CI -2.23, -0.67; 3039 participants; 17 studies; I2 = 45%, high-certainty evidence, respectively. The effect on systolic and diastolic blood pressure for those younger than 35 years was: MD -1.86, 95% CI -3.45, -0.27; 452 participants; eight studies; I2 = 19%, moderate-certainty evidence; MD -2.50, 95% CI -4.22, -0.79; 351 participants; seven studies ; I2 = 54%, moderate-certainty evidence, respectively. The effect on systolic and diastolic blood pressure for those 35 years or older was: MD -0.97, 95% CI -1.83, -0.10; 2688 participants; 10 studies; I2 = 0%, high-certainty evidence; MD -0.59, 95% CI -1.13, -0.06; 2688 participants; 10 studies; I2 = 0%, high-certainty evidence, respectively. The effect on systolic and diastolic blood pressure for women was: MD -1.25, 95% CI -2.53, 0.03; 1915 participants; eight studies; I2 = 0%, high-certainty evidence; MD -1.04, 95% CI -1.86, -0.22; 1915 participants; eight studies; I2 = 4%, high-certainty evidence, respectively. The effect on systolic and diastolic blood pressure for men was MD -2.14, 95% CI -3.71, -0.59; 507 participants; five studies; I2 = 8%, moderate-certainty evidence; MD -1.99, 95% CI -3.25, -0.74; 507 participants; five studies; I2 = 41%, moderate-certainty evidence, respectively. The effect was consistent in both genders regardless of baseline calcium intake. The effect on systolic blood pressure was: MD -0.02, 95% CI -2.23, 2.20; 302 participants; 3 studies; I2 = 0%, moderate-certainty evidence with doses less than 1000 mg; MD -1.05, 95% CI -1.91, -0.19; 2488 participants; 9 studies; I2 = 0%, high-certainty evidence with doses 1000 to 1500 mg; and MD -2.79, 95% CI -4.71, 0.86; 350 participants; 7 studies; I2 = 0%, moderate-certainty evidence with doses more than 1500 mg. The effect on diastolic blood pressure was: MD -0.41, 95% CI -2.07, 1.25; 201 participants; 2 studies; I2 = 0, moderate-certainty evidence; MD -2.03, 95% CI -3.44, -0.62 ; 1017 participants; 8 studies; and MD -1.35, 95% CI -2.75, -0.05; 1821 participants; 8 studies; I2 = 51%, high-certainty evidence, respectively. None of the studies reported adverse events.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

An increase in calcium intake slightly reduces both systolic and diastolic blood pressure in normotensive people, particularly in young people, suggesting a role in the prevention of hypertension. The effect across multiple prespecified subgroups and a possible dose response effect reinforce this conclusion. Even small reductions in blood pressure could have important health implications for reducing vascular disease. A 2 mmHg lower systolic blood pressure is predicted to produce about 10% lower stroke mortality and about 7% lower mortality from ischaemic heart disease. There is a great need for adequately-powered clinical trials randomising young people. Subgroup analysis should involve basal calcium intake, age, sex, basal blood pressure, and body mass index. We also require assessment of side effects, optimal doses and the best strategy to improve calcium intake.

Intercambio desde los cigarrillos convencionales a los sistemas electrónicos de administración de nicotina: revisión sistemática rápida con metaanálisis y aspectos económicos

Objetivos. Evaluar cómo y en qué medida se produce un intercambio desde los cigarrillos convencionales (CC) a los sistemas electrónicos de administración de nicotina (SEAN). Materiales y métodos. Se realizó una revisión sistemática hasta agosto de 2019. El desenlace primario fue la proporción de un intercambio completo o parcial de CC a los SEAN y sus aspectos económicos. Los desenlaces secundarios como medidas de resultado fueron la probabilidad de intercambio y la tendencia en el intercambio por países. Resultados. Se encontraron 3628 referencias y se incluyeron 49 estudios con datos epidemiológicos y económicos. Los estudios económicos sobre la elasticidad cruzada de precios mostraron que los CC son parcialmente intercambiables por SEAN. La mayoría de los estudios reportaron que la prevalencia del consumo de cigarrillos electrónicos se incrementó con el tiempo. Tres estudios reportaron una reducción significativa de los CC consumidos por día entre fumadores duales (convencionales más SEAN) en comparación con los consumidores de CC. El odds ratio ajustado y combinado de dejar los CC entre consumidores de SEAN en comparación con quienes nunca consumieron o lo hicieron en el pasado fue de 1,19 (IC95%: 1,09-1,30; heterogeneidad 0%). Los estudios longitudinales mostraron una creciente prevalencia del uso de cigarrillos electrónicos, principalmente en adolescentes. Se encontró una relación negativa entre el consumo y aumento de precio de CC y electrónicos. Conclusión. La probabilidad de dejar de fumar CC entre consumidores habituales de SEAN se incrementó respecto a los consumidores que nunca o que solían consumir SEAN. Estudios económicos reportaron que los cigarrillos electrónicos son parcialmente intercambiables por los CC.

Reducing medication errors for adults in hospital settings

BACKGROUND

Medication errors are preventable events that may cause or lead to inappropriate medication use or patient harm while the medication is in the control of the healthcare professional or patient. Medication errors in hospitalised adults may cause harm, additional costs, and even death.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the effectiveness of interventions to reduce medication errors in adults in hospital settings.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, five other databases and two trials registers on 16 January 2020.  SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and interrupted time series (ITS) studies investigating interventions aimed at reducing medication errors in hospitalised adults, compared with usual care or other interventions. Outcome measures included adverse drug events (ADEs), potential ADEs, preventable ADEs, medication errors, mortality, morbidity, length of stay, quality of life and identified/solved discrepancies. We included any hospital setting, such as inpatient care units, outpatient care settings, and accident and emergency departments.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We followed the standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane and the Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC) Group. Where necessary, we extracted and reanalysed ITS study data using piecewise linear regression, corrected for autocorrelation and seasonality, where possible.  MAIN RESULTS: We included 65 studies: 51 RCTs and 14 ITS studies, involving 110,875 participants. About half of trials gave rise to 'some concerns' for risk of bias during the randomisation process and one-third lacked blinding of outcome assessment. Most ITS studies presented low risk of bias. Most studies came from high-income countries or high-resource settings. Medication reconciliation -the process of comparing a patient's medication orders to the medications that the patient has been taking- was the most common type of intervention studied. Electronic prescribing systems, barcoding for correct administering of medications, organisational changes, feedback on medication errors, education of professionals and improved medication dispensing systems were other interventions studied. Medication reconciliation Low-certainty evidence suggests that medication reconciliation (MR) versus no-MR may reduce medication errors (odds ratio [OR] 0.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.17 to 1.74; 3 studies; n=379). Compared to no-MR, MR probably reduces ADEs (OR 0.38, 95%CI 0.18 to 0.80; 3 studies, n=1336 ; moderate-certainty evidence), but has little to no effect on length of stay (mean difference (MD) -0.30 days, 95%CI -1.93 to 1.33 days; 3 studies, n=527) and quality of life (MD -1.51, 95%CI -10.04 to 7.02; 1 study, n=131).  Low-certainty evidence suggests that, compared to MR by other professionals, MR by pharmacists may reduce medication errors (OR 0.21, 95%CI 0.09 to 0.48; 8 studies, n=2648) and may increase ADEs (OR 1.34, 95%CI 0.73 to 2.44; 3 studies, n=2873). Compared to MR by other professionals, MR by pharmacists may have little to no effect on length of stay (MD -0.25, 95%CI -1.05 to 0.56; 6 studies, 3983). Moderate-certainty evidence shows that this intervention probably has little to no effect on mortality during hospitalisation (risk ratio (RR) 0.99, 95%CI 0.57 to 1.7; 2 studies, n=1000), and on readmissions at one month (RR 0.93, 95%CI 0.76 to 1.14; 2 studies, n=997); and low-certainty evidence suggests that the intervention may have little to no effect on quality of life (MD 0.00, 95%CI -14.09 to 14.09; 1 study, n=724).  Low-certainty evidence suggests that database-assisted MR conducted by pharmacists, versus unassisted MR conducted by pharmacists, may reduce potential ADEs (OR 0.26, 95%CI 0.10 to 0.64; 2 studies, n=3326), and may have no effect on length of stay (MD 1.00, 95%CI -0.17 to 2.17; 1 study, n=311).  Low-certainty evidence suggests that MR performed by trained pharmacist technicians, versus pharmacists, may have little to no difference on length of stay (MD -0.30, 95%CI -2.12 to 1.52; 1 study, n=183). However, the CI is compatible with important beneficial and detrimental effects. Low-certainty evidence suggests that MR before admission may increase the identification of discrepancies compared with MR after admission (MD 1.27, 95%CI 0.46 to 2.08; 1 study, n=307). However, the CI is compatible with important beneficial and detrimental effects. Moderate-certainty evidence shows that multimodal interventions probably increase discrepancy resolutions compared to usual care (RR 2.14, 95%CI 1.81 to 2.53; 1 study, n=487). Computerised physician order entry (CPOE)/clinical decision support systems (CDSS) Moderate-certainty evidence shows that CPOE/CDSS probably reduce medication errors compared to paper-based systems (OR 0.74, 95%CI 0.31 to 1.79; 2 studies, n=88).  Moderate-certainty evidence shows that, compared with standard CPOE/CDSS, improved CPOE/CDSS probably reduce medication errors (OR 0.85, 95%CI 0.74 to 0.97; 2 studies, n=630). Low-certainty evidence suggests that prioritised alerts provided by CPOE/CDSS may prevent ADEs compared to non-prioritised (inconsequential) alerts (MD 1.98, 95%CI 1.65 to 2.31; 1 study; participant numbers unavailable). Barcode identification of participants/medications Low-certainty evidence suggests that barcoding may reduce medication errors (OR 0.69, 95%CI 0.59 to 0.79; 2 studies, n=50,545). Reduced working hours Low-certainty evidence suggests that reduced working hours may reduce serious medication errors (RR 0.83, 95%CI 0.63 to 1.09; 1 study, n=634). However, the CI is compatible with important beneficial and detrimental effects. Feedback on prescribing errors Low-certainty evidence suggests that feedback on prescribing errors may reduce medication errors (OR 0.47, 95%CI 0.33 to 0.67; 4 studies, n=384). Dispensing system Low-certainty evidence suggests that dispensing systems in surgical wards may reduce medication errors (OR 0.61, 95%CI 0.47 to 0.79; 2 studies, n=1775).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Low- to moderate-certainty evidence suggests that, compared to usual care, medication reconciliation, CPOE/CDSS, barcoding, feedback and dispensing systems in surgical wards may reduce medication errors and ADEs. However, the results are imprecise for some outcomes related to medication reconciliation and CPOE/CDSS. The evidence for other interventions is very uncertain. Powered and methodologically sound studies are needed to address the identified evidence gaps. Innovative, synergistic strategies -including those that involve patients- should also be evaluated.

Safety of components and platforms of COVID-19 vaccines considered for use in pregnancy: A rapid review

BACKGROUND

Rapid assessment of COVID-19 vaccine safety during pregnancy is urgently needed.

METHODS

We conducted a rapid systematic review, to evaluate the safety of COVID-19 vaccines selected by the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access-Maternal Immunization Working Group in August 2020, including their components and their technological platforms used in other vaccines for pregnant persons. We searched literature databases, COVID-19 vaccine pregnancy registries, and explored reference lists from the inception date to February 2021 without language restriction. Pairs of reviewers independently selected studies through COVIDENCE, and performed the data extraction and the risk of bias assessment. Discrepancies were resolved by consensus. Registered on PROSPERO (CRD42021234185).

RESULTS

We retrieved 6757 records and 12 COVID-19 pregnancy registries from the search strategy; 38 clinical and non-clinical studies (involving 2,398,855 pregnant persons and 56 pregnant animals) were included. Most studies (89%) were conducted in high-income countries and were cohort studies (57%). Most studies (76%) compared vaccine exposures with no exposure during the three trimesters of pregnancy. The most frequent exposure was to AS03 adjuvant, in the context of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccines, (n = 24) and aluminum-based adjuvants (n = 11). Only one study reported exposure to messenger RNA in lipid nanoparticles COVID-19 vaccines. Except for one preliminary report about A/H1N1 influenza vaccination (adjuvant AS03), corrected by the authors in a more thorough analysis, all studies concluded that there were no safety concerns.

CONCLUSION

This rapid review found no evidence of pregnancy-associated safety concerns of COVID-19 vaccines or of their components or platforms when used in other vaccines. However, the need for further data on several vaccine platforms and components is warranted, given their novelty. Our findings support current WHO guidelines recommending that pregnant persons may consider receiving COVID-19 vaccines, particularly if they are at high risk of exposure or have comorbidities that enhance the risk of severe disease.

Calcium supplementation for prevention of primary hypertension

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is a major public health problem that increases the risk of cardiovascular and kidney diseases. Several studies have shown an inverse association between calcium intake and blood pressure, as small reductions in blood pressure have been shown to produce rapid reductions in vascular disease risk even in individuals with normal blood pressure ranges. This is the first update of the review to evaluate the effect of calcium supplementation in normotensive individuals as a preventive health measure.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the efficacy and safety of calcium supplementation versus placebo or control for reducing blood pressure in normotensive people and for the prevention of primary hypertension.

SEARCH METHODS

The Cochrane Hypertension Information Specialist searched the following databases for randomised controlled trials up to September 2020: the Cochrane Hypertension Specialised Register, CENTRAL (2020, Issue 9), Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and the US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register, ClinicalTrials.gov. We also contacted authors of relevant papers regarding further published and unpublished work. The searches had no language restrictions.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We selected trials that randomised normotensive people to dietary calcium interventions such as supplementation or food fortification versus placebo or control. We excluded quasi-random designs. The primary outcomes were hypertension (defined as blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mmHg) and blood pressure measures.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently selected trials for inclusion, abstracted the data and assessed the risks of bias. We used the GRADE approach to assess the certainty of evidence.

MAIN RESULTS

The 2020 updated search identified four new trials. We included a total of 20 trials with 3512 participants, however we only included 18 for the meta-analysis with 3140 participants. None of the studies reported hypertension as a dichotomous outcome. The effect on systolic and diastolic blood pressure was: mean difference (MD) -1.37 mmHg, 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.08, -0.66; 3140 participants; 18 studies; I² = 0%, high-certainty evidence; and MD -1.45, 95% CI -2.23, -0.67; 3039 participants; 17 studies; I² = 45%, high-certainty evidence, respectively. The effect on systolic and diastolic blood pressure for those younger than 35 years was: MD -1.86, 95% CI -3.45, -0.27; 452 participants; eight studies; I² = 19%, moderate-certainty evidence; MD -2.50, 95% CI -4.22, -0.79; 351 participants; seven studies ; I² = 54%, moderate-certainty evidence, respectively. The effect on systolic and diastolic blood pressure for those 35 years or older was: MD -0.97, 95% CI -1.83, -0.10; 2688 participants; 10 studies; I² = 0%, high-certainty evidence; MD -0.59, 95% CI -1.13, -0.06; 2688 participants; 10 studies; I² = 0%, high-certainty evidence, respectively. The effect on systolic and diastolic blood pressure for women was: MD -1.25, 95% CI -2.53, 0.03; 1915 participants; eight studies; I² = 0%, high-certainty evidence; MD -1.04, 95% CI -1.86, -0.22; 1915 participants; eight studies; I² = 4%, high-certainty evidence, respectively. The effect on systolic and diastolic blood pressure for men was MD -2.14, 95% CI -3.71, -0.59; 507 participants; five studies; I² = 8%, moderate-certainty evidence; MD -1.99, 95% CI -3.25, -0.74; 507 participants; five studies; I² = 41%, moderate-certainty evidence, respectively. The effect was consistent in both genders regardless of baseline calcium intake. The effect on systolic blood pressure was: MD -0.02, 95% CI -2.23, 2.20; 302 participants; 3 studies; I² = 0%, moderate-certainty evidence with doses less than 1000 mg; MD -1.05, 95% CI -1.91, -0.19; 2488 participants; 9 studies; I² = 0%, high-certainty evidence with doses 1000 to 1500 mg; and MD -2.79, 95% CI -4.71, 0.86; 350 participants; 7 studies = 8; I² = 0%, moderate-certainty evidence with doses more than 1500 mg. The effect on diastolic blood pressure was: MD -0.41, 95% CI -2.07, 1.25; 201 participants; 2 studies; I² = 0, moderate-certainty evidence; MD -2.03, 95% CI -3.44, -0.62 ; 1017 participants; 8 studies; and MD -1.35, 95% CI -2.75, -0.05; 1821 participants; 8 studies; I² = 51%, high-certainty evidence, respectively. None of the studies reported adverse events.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

An increase in calcium intake slightly reduces both systolic and diastolic blood pressure in normotensive people, particularly in young people, suggesting a role in the prevention of hypertension. The effect across multiple prespecified subgroups and a possible dose response effect reinforce this conclusion. Even small reductions in blood pressure could have important health implications for reducing vascular disease. A 2 mmHg lower systolic blood pressure is predicted to produce about 10% lower stroke mortality and about 7% lower mortality from ischaemic heart disease. There is a great need for adequately-powered clinical trials randomising young people. Subgroup analysis should involve basal calcium intake, age, sex, basal blood pressure, and body mass index. We also require assessment of side effects, optimal doses and the best strategy to improve calcium intake.

Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) for the early detection of dementia in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI)

BACKGROUND

Dementia is a progressive global cognitive impairment syndrome. In 2010, more than 35 million people worldwide were estimated to be living with dementia. Some people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) will progress to dementia but others remain stable or recover full function. There is great interest in finding good predictors of dementia in people with MCI. The Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) is the best-known and the most often used short screening tool for providing an overall measure of cognitive impairment in clinical, research and community settings.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the accuracy of the Mini Mental State Examination for the early detection of dementia in people with mild cognitive impairment SEARCH METHODS: We searched ALOIS (Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Specialized Register of diagnostic and intervention studies (inception to May 2014); MEDLINE (OvidSP) (1946 to May 2014); EMBASE (OvidSP) (1980 to May 2014); BIOSIS (Web of Science) (inception to May 2014); Web of Science Core Collection, including the Conference Proceedings Citation Index (ISI Web of Science) (inception to May 2014); PsycINFO (OvidSP) (inception to May 2014), and LILACS (BIREME) (1982 to May 2014). We also searched specialized sources of diagnostic test accuracy studies and reviews, most recently in May 2014: MEDION (Universities of Maastricht and Leuven, www.mediondatabase.nl), DARE (Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, via the Cochrane Library), HTA Database (Health Technology Assessment Database, via the Cochrane Library), and ARIF (University of Birmingham, UK, www.arif.bham.ac.uk). No language or date restrictions were applied to the electronic searches and methodological filters were not used as a method to restrict the search overall so as to maximize sensitivity. We also checked reference lists of relevant studies and reviews, tracked citations in Scopus and Science Citation Index, used searches of known relevant studies in PubMed to track related articles, and contacted research groups conducting work on MMSE for dementia diagnosis to try to locate possibly relevant but unpublished data.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We considered longitudinal studies in which results of the MMSE administered to MCI participants at baseline were obtained and the reference standard was obtained by follow-up over time. We included participants recruited and clinically classified as individuals with MCI under Petersen and revised Petersen criteria, Matthews criteria, or a Clinical Dementia Rating = 0.5. We used acceptable and commonly used reference standards for dementia in general, Alzheimer's dementia, Lewy body dementia, vascular dementia and frontotemporal dementia.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We screened all titles generated by the electronic database searches. Two review authors independently assessed the abstracts of all potentially relevant studies. We assessed the identified full papers for eligibility and extracted data to create two by two tables for dementia in general and other dementias. Two authors independently performed quality assessment using the QUADAS-2 tool. Due to high heterogeneity and scarcity of data, we derived estimates of sensitivity at fixed values of specificity from the model we fitted to produce the summary receiver operating characteristic curve.

MAIN RESULTS

In this review, we included 11 heterogeneous studies with a total number of 1569 MCI patients followed for conversion to dementia. Four studies assessed the role of baseline scores of the MMSE in conversion from MCI to all-cause dementia and eight studies assessed this test in conversion from MCI to Alzheimer´s disease dementia. Only one study provided information about the MMSE and conversion from MCI to vascular dementia. For conversion from MCI to dementia in general, the accuracy of baseline MMSE scores ranged from sensitivities of 23% to 76% and specificities from 40% to 94%. In relationship to conversion from MCI to Alzheimer's disease dementia, the accuracy of baseline MMSE scores ranged from sensitivities of 27% to 89% and specificities from 32% to 90%. Only one study provided information about conversion from MCI to vascular dementia, presenting a sensitivity of 36% and a specificity of 80% with an incidence of vascular dementia of 6.2%. Although we had planned to explore possible sources of heterogeneity, this was not undertaken due to the scarcity of studies included in our analysis.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Our review did not find evidence supporting a substantial role of MMSE as a stand-alone single-administration test in the identification of MCI patients who could develop dementia. Clinicians could prefer to request additional and extensive tests to be sure about the management of these patients. An important aspect to assess in future updates is if conversion to dementia from MCI stages could be predicted better by MMSE changes over time instead of single measurements. It is also important to assess if a set of tests, rather than an isolated one, may be more successful in predicting conversion from MCI to dementia.

Sugar sweetened beverages attributable disease burden and the potential impact of policy interventions: a systematic review of epidemiological and decision models

BACKGROUND

Around 184,000 deaths per year could be attributable to sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) consumption worldwide. Epidemiological and decision models are important tools to estimate disease burden. The purpose of this study was to identify models to assess the burden of diseases attributable to SSBs consumption or the potential impact of health interventions.

METHODS

We carried out a systematic review and literature search up to August 2018. Pairs of reviewers independently selected, extracted, and assessed the quality of the included studies through an exhaustive description of each model's features. Discrepancies were solved by consensus. The inclusion criteria were epidemiological or decision models evaluating SSBs health interventions or policies, and descriptive SSBs studies of decision models. Studies published before 2003, cost of illness studies and economic evaluations based on individual patient data were excluded.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 2766 references. Out of the 40 included studies, 45% were models specifically developed to address SSBs, 82.5% were conducted in high-income countries and 57.5% considered a health system perspective. The most common model's outcomes were obesity/overweight (82.5%), diabetes (72.5%), cardiovascular disease (60%), mortality (52.5%), direct medical costs (57.35%), and healthy years -DALYs/QALYs- (40%) attributable to SSBs. 67.5% of the studies modelled the effect of SSBs on the outcomes either entirely through BMI or through BMI plus diabetes independently. Models were usually populated with inputs from national surveys -such us obesity prevalence, SSBs consumption-; and vital statistics (67.5%). Only 55% reported results by gender and 40% included children; 30% presented results by income level, and 25% by selected vulnerable groups. Most of the models evaluated at least one policy intervention to reduce SSBs consumption (92.5%), taxes being the most frequent strategy (75%).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a wide range of modelling approaches of different complexity and information requirements to evaluate the burden of disease attributable to SSBs. Most of them take into account the impact on obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease, mortality, and economic impact. Incorporating these tools to different countries could result in useful information for decision makers and the general population to promote a deeper implementation of policies to reduce SSBs consumption.

PROSPERO PROTOCOL NUMBER

CRD42020121025 .

COVID-19 and pregnancy: An umbrella review of clinical presentation, vertical transmission, and maternal and perinatal outcomes

BACKGROUND

We conducted an overview of systematic reviews (SRs) summarizing the best evidence regarding the effect of COVID-19 on maternal and child health following Cochrane methods and PRISMA statement for reporting (PROSPERO-CRD42020208783).

METHODS

We searched literature databases and COVID-19 research websites from January to October 2020. We selected relevant SRs reporting adequate search strategy, data synthesis, risk of bias assessment, and/or individual description of included studies describing COVID-19 and pregnancy outcomes. Pair of reviewers independently selected studies through COVIDENCE web-software, performed the data extraction, and assessed its quality through the AMSTAR-2 tool. Discrepancies were resolved by consensus. Each SR's results were synthesized and for the most recent, relevant, comprehensive, and with the highest quality, by predefined criteria, we presented GRADE evidence tables.

RESULTS

We included 66 SRs of observational studies out of 608 references retrieved and most (61/66) had "critically low" overall quality. We found a relatively low degree of primary study overlap across SRs. The most frequent COVID-19 clinical findings during pregnancy were fever (28-100%), mild respiratory symptoms (20-79%), raised C-reactive protein (28-96%), lymphopenia (34-80%), and pneumonia signs in diagnostic imaging (7-99%). The most frequent maternal outcomes were C-section (23-96%) and preterm delivery (14-64%). Most of their babies were asymptomatic (16-93%) or presented fever (0-50%), low birth weight (5-43%) or preterm delivery (2-69%). The odds ratio (OR) of receiving invasive ventilation for COVID-19 versus non-COVID-19 pregnant women was 1.88 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.36-2.60) and the OR that their babies were admitted to neonatal intensive care unit was 3.13 (95%CI 2.05-4.78). The risk of congenital transmission or via breast milk was estimated to be low, but close contacts may carry risks.

CONCLUSION

This comprehensive overview supports that pregnant women with COVID-19 may be at increased risk of adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes and low risk of congenital transmission.

Effectiveness of uterine tamponade devices for refractory postpartum haemorrhage after vaginal birth: a systematic review

Objectives

To evaluate uterine tamponade devices’ effectiveness for atonic refractory postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) after vaginal birth and the effect of including them in institutional protocols.

Search strategy

PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, LILACS, POPLINE, from inception to January 2021.

Study selection

Randomised and non‐randomised comparative studies.

Outcomes

Composite outcome including surgical interventions (artery ligations, compressive sutures or hysterectomy) or maternal death, and hysterectomy.

Results

All included studies were at high risk of bias. The certainty of the evidence was rated as very low to low. One randomised study measured the effect of the condom‐catheter balloon compared with standard care and found unclear results for the composite outcome (relative risk [RR] 2.33, 95% CI 0.76–7.14) and hysterectomy (RR 4.14, 95% CI 0.48–35.93). Three comparative studies assessed the effect of including uterine balloon tamponade in institutional protocols. A stepped wedge cluster randomised controlled trial suggested an increase in the composite outcome (RR 4.08, 95% CI 1.07–15.58) and unclear results for hysterectomy (RR 4.38, 95% CI 0.47–41.09) with the use of the condom‐catheter or surgical glove balloon. One non‐randomised study showed unclear effects on the composite outcome (RR 0.33, 95% CI 0.11–1.03) and hysterectomy (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.04–5.38) after the inclusion of the Bakri balloon. The second non‐randomised study found unclear effects on the composite outcome (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.32–2.81) and hysterectomy (RR 1.84, 95% CI 0.44–7.69) after the inclusion of Ebb or Bakri balloon.

Conclusions

The effect of uterine tamponade devices for the management of atonic refractory PPH after vaginal delivery is unclear, as is the role of the type of device and the setting.

Tweetable abstract

Unclear effects of uterine tamponade devices and their inclusion in institutional protocols for atonic refractory PPH after vaginal delivery.

Unclear effects of uterine tamponade devices and their inclusion in institutional protocols for atonic refractory PPH after vaginal delivery.

Safety of COVID-19 vaccines, their components or their platforms for pregnant women: A rapid review

BACKGROUND

Pregnant women with COVID-19 are at an increased risk of severe COVID-19 illness as well as adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes. Many countries are vaccinating or considering vaccinating pregnant women with limited available data about the safety of this strategy. Early identification of safety concerns of COVID-19 vaccines, including their components, or their technological platforms is therefore urgently needed.

METHODS

We conducted a rapid systematic review, as the first phase of an ongoing full systematic review, to evaluate the safety of COVID-19 vaccines in pregnant women, including their components, and their technological platforms (whole virus, protein, viral vector or nucleic acid) used in other vaccines, following the Cochrane methods and the PRISMA statement for reporting (PROSPERO-CRD42021234185).We searched literature databases, COVID-19 and pregnancy registries from inception February 2021 without time or language restriction and explored the reference lists of relevant systematic reviews retrieved. We selected studies of any methodological design that included at least 50 pregnant women or pregnant animals exposed to the vaccines that were selected for review by the COVAX MIWG in August 2020 or their components or platforms included in the COVID-19 vaccines, and evaluated adverse events during pregnancy and the neonatal period.Pairs of reviewers independently selected studies through the COVIDENCE web software and performed the data extraction through a previously piloted online extraction form. Discrepancies were resolved by consensus.

RESULTS

We identified 6768 records, 256 potentially eligible studies were assessed by full-text, and 37 clinical and non-clinical studies (38 reports, involving 2,397,715 pregnant women and 56 pregnant animals) and 12 pregnancy registries were included.Most studies (89%) were conducted in high-income countries. The most frequent study design was cohort studies (n=21), followed by surveillance studies, randomized controlled trials, and registry analyses. Most studies (76%) allowed comparisons between vaccinated and unvaccinated pregnant women (n=25) or animals (n=3) and reported exposures during the three trimesters of pregnancy.The most frequent exposure was to AS03 adjuvant in the context of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccines (n=24), followed by aluminum-based adjuvants (n=11). Aluminum phosphate was used in Respiratory Syncytial Virus Fusion candidate vaccines (n=3) and Tdap vaccines (n=3). Different aluminum-based adjuvants were used in hepatitis vaccines. The replication-deficient simian adenovirus ChAdOx1 was used for a Rift Valley fever vaccine. Only one study reported exposure to messenger RNA (mRNA) COVID-19 vaccines that also used lipid nanoparticles. Except for one preliminary report about A/H1N1 influenza vaccination (adjuvant AS03) - corrected by the authors in a more thorough analysis, all studies concluded that there were no safety concerns.

CONCLUSION

This rapid review found no evidence of pregnancy-associated safety concerns of COVID-19 vaccines that were selected for review by the COVAX MIWG or of their components or platforms when used in other vaccines. However, the need for further data on several vaccine platforms and components is warranted given their novelty. Our findings support current WHO guidelines recommending that pregnant women may consider receiving COVID-19 vaccines, particularly if they are at high risk of exposure or have comorbidities that enhance the risk of severe disease.

Efficacy and safety of opioid therapy guided by pharmacogenetics: a systematic review

Aim: To perform a systematic review to determine the efficacy/safety of PGx-guided opioid therapy for chronic/postoperative pain. Materials & methods: We searched PubMed and other specialized databases. Articles were considered if they compared the efficacy/safety of PGx-guided opioid therapy versus usual care. The risk of bias assessment was performed using Cochrane tools. Results: A total of 3794 records were retrieved. Only five were included for data extraction. A lower requirement of analgesics during postoperative in the PGx-guided intervention arm was reported in two studies. Also, two studies reported significant pain improvement in favor of the PGx-guided therapy when analyzing the subgroup of patients with a high-risk CYP2D6 phenotype. Conclusion: Despite the findings described, information on the efficacy/safety of this intervention is scarce.

Optimizing Tobacco Advertising Bans in Seven Latin American Countries: Microsimulation Modeling of Health and Financial Impact to Inform Evidence-Based Policy

INTRODUCTION

In Latin America, tobacco smoking prevalence is between 6.4% and 35.2%. Governments have been making efforts to support the regulation of advertising and, in many cases, banning advertising and promotion of tobacco altogether. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential impact on health and economic outcomes of optimizing a ban on tobacco advertising and sponsorship in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru.

METHODS

We built a probabilistic microsimulation model, considering natural history, direct health system costs, and quality of life impairment associated with main tobacco-related diseases. We followed individuals in hypothetical cohorts and calculated health outcomes on an annual basis to obtain aggregated 10-year population health outcomes (deaths, events, healthy years of life) and costs. To populate the model, we performed a rapid review of literature to calculate intervention effectiveness.

RESULTS

With current policies, over 10 years, in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia a total of 50,000 deaths and 364,000 disease events will be averted, saving $7.2 billion. If the seven countries strengthened their policies and implemented a comprehensive ban with 100% compliance, 98,000 deaths and 648,000 events would be averted over 10 years, saving almost $15 billion in healthcare costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Optimizing a ban on tobacco advertising and sponsorship would substantially reduce deaths, diseases, and health care costs attributed to smoking. Latin American countries should not delay the full implementation of this strategy.

Direct Medical Costs, Productivity Loss Costs and Out-Of-Pocket Expenditures in Women with Breast Cancer in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to conduct a systematic review of the literature to identify, categorise, assess, and synthesise the healthcare costs of patients with breast cancer (BC) and their relatives in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC).

METHODS

In December 2020, we searched for published data in PubMed, LILACS, EMBASE, and other sources, including the grey literature. Studies were eligible if they were conducted in LAC and reported the direct medical costs, productivity loss costs, out-of-pocket expenditure, and other costs to patients with BC and their relatives. No restrictions were imposed on the type of BC population (metastatic BC or human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive/negative BC, among others). We summarised the characteristics and methodological approach of each study and the healthcare costs by cancer stage. We also developed and applied an original ad hoc instrument to assess the quality of the cost estimation studies.

RESULTS

We identified 2725 references and 63 included studies. In total, 79.3% of the studies solely reported direct medical costs and five solely reported costs to patients and their relatives. Only 14.3% of the studies were classified as of high quality. The pooled weighted average direct medical cost per patient-year (year 2020 international dollars [I$]) by BC stage was I$13,179 for stage I, I$15,556 for stage II, I$23,444 for stage III, and I$28,910 for stage IV.

CONCLUSION

This review provides the first synthesis of BC costs in LAC. Our findings show few high-quality costing studies in BC and a gap in the literature measuring costs to patients and their relatives. The high costs associated with the advanced stages of BC call into question the affordability of treatments and their accessibility for patients. Registered in PROSPERO (CRD42018106835).

There is life beyond the statistical significance

This article challenges the “tyranny of P-value” and promote more valuable and applicable interpretations of the results of research on health care delivery. We provide here solid arguments to retire statistical significance as the unique way to interpret results, after presenting the current state of the debate inside the scientific community. Instead, we promote reporting the much more informative confidence intervals and eventually adding exact P-values. We also provide some clues to integrate statistical and clinical significance by referring to minimal important differences and integrating the effect size of an intervention and the certainty of evidence ideally using the GRADE approach. We have argued against interpreting or reporting results as statistically significant or statistically non-significant. We recommend showing important clinical benefits with their confidence intervals in cases of point estimates compatible with results benefits and even important harms. It seems fair to report the point estimate and the more likely values along with a very clear statement of the implications of extremes of the intervals. We recommend drawing conclusions, considering the multiple factors besides P-values such as certainty of the evidence for each outcome, net benefit, economic considerations and values and preferences. We use several examples and figures to illustrate different scenarios and further suggest a wording to standardize the reporting. Several statistical measures have a role in the scientific communication of studies, but it is time to understand that there is life beyond the statistical significance. There is a great opportunity for improvement towards a more complete interpretation and to a more standardized reporting.

High versus low positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) levels for mechanically ventilated adult patients with acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome

BACKGROUND

In patients with acute lung injury (ALI) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), mortality remains high. These patients require mechanical ventilation, which has been associated with ventilator-induced lung injury. High levels of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) could reduce this condition and improve patient survival. This is an updated version of the review first published in 2013.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the benefits and harms of high versus low levels of PEEP in adults with ALI and ARDS.

SEARCH METHODS

For our previous review, we searched databases from inception until 2013. For this updated review, we searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, and the Web of Science from inception until May 2020. We also searched for ongoing trials (www.trialscentral.org; www.clinicaltrial.gov; www.controlled-trials.com), and we screened the reference lists of included studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials that compared high versus low levels of PEEP in ALI and ARDS participants who were intubated and mechanically ventilated in intensive care for at least 24 hours.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors assessed risk of bias and extracted data independently. We contacted investigators to identify additional published and unpublished studies. We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane.

MAIN RESULTS

We included four new studies (1343 participants) in this review update. In total, we included 10 studies (3851 participants). We found evidence of risk of bias in six studies, and the remaining studies fulfilled all criteria for low risk of bias. In eight studies (3703 participants), a comparison was made between high and low levels of PEEP, with the same tidal volume in both groups. In the remaining two studies (148 participants), the tidal volume was different between high- and low-level groups. In the main analysis, we assessed mortality occurring before hospital discharge only in studies that compared high versus low PEEP, with the same tidal volume in both groups. Evidence suggests that high PEEP may result in little to no difference in mortality compared to low PEEP (risk ratio (RR) 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90 to 1.04; I² = 15%; 7 studies, 3640 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). In addition, high PEEP may result in little to no difference in barotrauma (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.57; I² = 63%; 9 studies, 3791 participants; low-certainty evidence). High PEEP may improve oxygenation in patients up to the first and third days of mechanical ventilation (first day: mean difference (MD) 51.03, 95% CI 35.86 to 66.20; I² = 85%; 6 studies, 2594 participants; low-certainty evidence; third day: MD 50.32, 95% CI 34.92 to 65.72; I² = 83%; 6 studies, 2309 participants; low-certainty evidence) and probably improves oxygenation up to the seventh day (MD 28.52, 95% CI 20.82 to 36.21; I² = 0%; 5 studies, 1611 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Evidence suggests that high PEEP results in little to no difference in the number of ventilator-free days (MD 0.45, 95% CI -2.02 to 2.92; I² = 81%; 3 studies, 1654 participants; low-certainty evidence). Available data were insufficient to pool the evidence for length of stay in the intensive care unit.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Moderate-certainty evidence shows that high levels compared to low levels of PEEP do not reduce mortality before hospital discharge. Low-certainty evidence suggests that high levels of PEEP result in little to no difference in the risk of barotrauma. Low-certainty evidence also suggests that high levels of PEEP improve oxygenation up to the first and third days of mechanical ventilation, and moderate-certainty evidence indicates that high levels of PEEP improve oxygenation up to the seventh day of mechanical ventilation. As in our previous review, we found clinical heterogeneity - mainly within participant characteristics and methods of titrating PEEP - that does not allow us to draw definitive conclusions regarding the use of high levels of PEEP in patients with ALI and ARDS. Further studies should aim to determine the appropriate method of using high levels of PEEP and the advantages and disadvantages associated with high levels of PEEP in different ARDS and ALI patient populations.

Health and Economic Impact of Health Warnings and Plain Tobacco Packaging in Seven Latin American Countries: Results of a Simulation Model

INTRODUCTION

The burden of disease attributable to tobacco use in Latin America is very high. Our objective was to evaluate the 10-year potential impact of current legislation related to cigarette packaging and warnings and expected effects of moving to a higher level of strategies implementing cigarette plain packaging on health and cost outcomes in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, using a microsimulation model.

AIMS AND METHODS

We used a probabilistic state-transition microsimulation model, considering natural history, costs, and quality of life losses associated with main tobacco-related diseases. We followed up individuals in hypothetical cohorts and calculated health outcomes annually to obtain aggregated long-term population health outcomes and costs. We performed a literature review to estimate effects and analyzed studies and information from ministries, relevant organizations, and national surveys. We calibrated the model comparing the predicted disease-specific mortality rates with local statistics.

RESULTS

Current graphic warnings already in place in each country could avert, during 10 years, 69 369 deaths and 638 295 disease events, adding 1.2 million years of healthy life and saving USD 5.3 billion in the seven countries. If these countries implemented plain packaging strategies, additional 155 857 premature deaths and 4 133 858 events could be averted, adding 4.1 million healthy years of life and saving USD 13.6 billion in direct health care expenses of diseases attributable to smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

Latin American countries should not delay the implementation of this strategy that will alleviate part of the enormous health and financial burden that tobacco poses on their economies and health care systems.

IMPLICATIONS

Tobacco smoking is the single most preventable and premature mortality cause in the world. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, supported by the World Health Organization, introduced a package of evidence-based measures for tobacco control. This study adds evidence on the potential health effects and savings of implementing cigarette plain packaging in countries representing almost 80% of the Latin American population; findings are valuable resources for policy makers in the region.

Smoke-Free Air Interventions in Seven Latin American Countries: Health and Financial Impact to Inform Evidence-Based Policy Implementation

INTRODUCTION

Disease burden due to tobacco smoking in Latin America remains very high. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential impact of implementing smoke-free air interventions on health and cost outcomes in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, using a mathematical model.

AIMS AND METHODS

We built a probabilistic Monte Carlo microsimulation model, considering natural history, direct health system costs, and quality of life impairment associated with main tobacco-related diseases. We followed individuals in hypothetical cohorts and calculated health outcomes on an annual basis to obtain aggregated 10-year population health outcomes (deaths and events) and costs. To populate the model, we completed an overview and systematic review of the literature. Also, we calibrated the model comparing the predicted disease-specific mortality rates with those coming from local national statistics.

RESULTS

With current policies, for the next 10 years, a total of 137 121 deaths and 917 210 events could be averted, adding 3.84 million years of healthy life and saving USD 9.2 billion in these seven countries. If countries fully implemented smoke-free air strategies, it would be possible to avert nearly 180 000 premature deaths and 1.2 million events, adding 5 million healthy years of life and saving USD 13.1 billion in direct healthcare.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing the smoke-free air strategy would substantially reduce deaths, diseases, and health care costs attributed to smoking. Latin American countries should not delay the full implementation of this strategy.

IMPLICATIONS

Tobacco smoking is the single most preventable and premature mortality cause in the world. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, supported by the World Health Organization, introduced a package of evidence-based measures for tobacco control. This study adds quality evidence on the potential health effects and savings of implementing smoke-free air policies in countries representing almost 80% of the Latin America and the Caribbean population.

Mobile apps for detecting falsified and substandard drugs: A systematic review

The use of substandard and counterfeit medicines (SCM) leads to significant health and economic consequences, like treatment failure, rise of antimicrobial resistance, extra expenditures of individuals or households and serious adverse drug reactions including death. Our objective was to systematically search, identify and compare relevant available mobile applications (apps) for smartphones and tablets, which use could potentially affect clinical and public health outcomes. We carried out a systematic review of the literature in January 2020, including major medical databases, and app stores. We used the validated Mobile App Rating Scale (MARS) to assess the quality of apps, (1 worst score, 3 acceptable score, and 5 best score). We planned to evaluate the accuracy of the mobile apps to detect SCM. We retrieved 335 references through medical databases and 42 from Apple, Google stores and Google Scholar. We finally included two studies of the medical database, 25 apps (eight from the App Store, eight from Google Play, eight from both stores, and one from Google Scholar), and 16 websites. We only found one report on the accuracy of a mobile apps detecting SCMs. Most apps use the imprint, color or shape for pill identification, and only a few offer pill detection through photographs or bar code. The MARS mean score for the apps was 3.17 (acceptable), with a maximum of 4.9 and a minimum of 1.1. The 'functionality' dimension resulted in the highest mean score (3.4), while the 'engagement' and 'information' dimensions showed the lowest one (3.0). In conclusion, we found a remarkable evidence gap about the accuracy of mobile apps in detecting SCMs. However, mobile apps could potentially be useful to screen for SCM by assessing the physical characteristics of pills, although this should still be assessed in properly designed research studies.

Effect of Calcium Fortified Foods on Health Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Calcium supplementation and fortification are strategies widely used to prevent adverse outcome in population with low-calcium intake which is highly frequent in low-income settings. We aimed to determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of calcium fortified foods on calcium intake and related health, or economic outcomes. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis involving participants of any age or gender, drawn from the general population. We searched PubMed, Agricola, EMBASE, CINAHL, Global Health, EconLit, the FAO website and Google until June 2019, without language restrictions. Pair of reviewers independently selected, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias of included studies using Covidence software. Disagreements were resolved by consensus. We performed meta-analyses using RevMan 5.4 and subgroup analyses by study design, age group, and fortification levels. We included 20 studies of which 15 were randomized controlled trials (RCTs), three were non-randomised studies and two were economic evaluations. Most RCTs had high risk of bias on randomization or blinding. Most represented groups were women and children from 1 to 72 months, most common intervention vehicles were milk and bakery products with a fortification levels between 96 and 1200 mg per 100 g of food. Calcium intake increased in the intervention groups between 460 mg (children) and 1200 mg (postmenopausal women). Most marked effects were seen in children. Compared to controls, height increased 0.83 cm (95% CI 0.00; 1.65), plasma parathyroid hormone decreased -1.51 pmol/L, (-2.37; -0.65), urine:calcium creatinine ratio decreased -0.05, (-0.07; -0.03), femoral neck and hip bone mineral density increased 0.02 g/cm2 (0.01; 0.04) and 0.03 g/cm2 (0.00; 0.06), respectively. The largest cost savings (43%) reported from calcium fortification programs came from prevented hip fractures in older women from Germany. Our study highlights that calcium fortification leads to a higher calcium intake, small benefits in children's height and bone health and also important evidence gaps for other outcomes and populations that could be solved with high quality experimental or quasi-experimental studies in relevant groups, especially as some evidence of calcium supplementation show controversial results on the bone health benefit on older adults.

Dexamethasone versus betamethasone for preterm birth: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the comparative clinical effectiveness and safety of dexamethasone vs betamethasone for preterm birth.

DATA SOURCES

The sources searched were MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, LILACS, ClinicalTrials.gov, and International Clinical Trials Registry Platform without language restrictions until October 2019 in addition to the reference lists of included studies. Field experts were also contacted.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Randomized or quasi-randomized controlled trials comparing any corticosteroids against each other or against placebo at any dose for preterm birth were included in the study.

METHODS

Three researchers independently selected and extracted data and assessed the risk of bias of the included studies by using Early Review Organizing Software and Covidence software. Random-effects pairwise meta-analysis and Bayesian network meta-analysis were performed. The primary outcomes were chorioamnionitis, endometritis or puerperal sepsis, neonatal death, respiratory distress syndrome, and neurodevelopmental disability.

RESULTS

A total of 45 trials (11,227 women and 11,878 infants) were included in the study. No clinical or statistical difference was found between dexamethasone and betamethasone in neonatal death (odds ratio, 1.05; 95% confidence interval, 0.62-1.84; moderate-certainty evidence), neurodevelopmental disability (odds ratio, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-1.33; moderate-certainty evidence), intraventricular hemorrhage (odds ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.56-1.78); low-certainty evidence), or birthweight (+5.29 g; 95% confidence interval, -49.79 to 58.97; high-certainty evidence). There was no statistically significant difference, but a potentially clinically important effect was found between dexamethasone and betamethasone in chorioamnionitis (odds ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.45-1.06; moderate-certainty evidence), fetal death (odds ratio, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.24-2.41; low-certainty evidence), puerperal sepsis (odds ratio, 2.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.72-6.06; low-certainty evidence), and respiratory distress syndrome (odds ratio, 1.34; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-2.11; moderate-certainty evidence). Meta-regression, subgroup, and sensitivity analyses did not reveal important changes regarding the main analysis.

CONCLUSION

Corticosteroids have proven effective for most neonatal and child-relevant outcomes compared with placebo or no treatment for women at risk of preterm birth. No important difference was found on neonatal death, neurodevelopmental disability, intraventricular hemorrhage, and birthweight between corticosteroids, and there was no statistically significant difference, but a potentially important difference was found in chorioamnionitis, fetal death, endometritis or puerperal sepsis, and respiratory distress syndrome. Further research is warranted to improve the certainty of evidence and inform health policies.

How effective are the non-conventional ovarian stimulation protocols in ART? A systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

To compare the effectiveness of starting the ovarian stimulation on the early follicular phase ("Conventional") with the newer range of non-conventional approaches starting in the luteal phase ("Luteal"), random-start, and studies implementing them in DuoStim ("Conventional"+"Luteal").

METHODS

Systematic review. We searched CENTRAL, PubMed, and Embase, on March 2020. We included randomized and non-randomized controlled trials that compared "Luteal," random-start ovarian stimulation or DuoStim with "Conventional"; we analyzed them by subgroups: oocyte freezing and patients undergoing ART treatments, both, in the general infertile population and among poor responders.

RESULTS

The following results come from a sensitivity analysis that included only the low/moderate risk of bias studies. When comparing "Luteal" to "Conventional," clinically relevant differences in MII oocytes were ruled out in all subgroups. We found that "Luteal" probably increases the COH length both, in the general infertile population (OR 2.00 days, 95% CI 0.81 to 3.19, moderate-quality evidence) and in oocyte freezing cycles (MD 0.85 days, 95% CI 0.53 to 1.18, moderate-quality evidence). When analyzing DuoStim among poor responders, we found that it appears to generate a higher number of MII oocytes in comparison with a single "Conventional" (MD 3.35, 95%CI 2.54-4.15, moderate-quality evidence).

CONCLUSION

Overall, this systematic review of the available data demonstrates that in poor responders, general infertile population and oocyte freezing for cancer stimulation in the late follicular and luteal phases can be utilized in non-conventional approaches such as random-start and DuoStim cycles, offering similar outcomes to the conventional cycles but potentially with increased flexibility, within a reduced time frame. However, more well-designed trials are required to establish certainty.

Endometrial preparation for women undergoing embryo transfer with frozen embryos or embryos derived from donor oocytes

BACKGROUND

A frozen embryo transfer (FET) cycle is when one or more embryos (frozen during a previous treatment cycle) are thawed and transferred to the uterus. Some women undergo fresh embryo transfer (ET) cycles with embryos derived from donated oocytes. In both situations, the endometrium is primed with oestrogen and progestogen in different doses and routes of administration.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the most effective endometrial preparation for women undergoing transfer with frozen embryos or embryos from donor oocytes with regard to the subsequent live birth rate (LBR).

SEARCH METHODS

The Cochrane Gynaecology and Fertility Group trials register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, LILACS, trials registers and abstracts of reproductive societies' meetings were searched in June 2020 together with reference checking and contact with study authors and experts in the field to identify additional studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating endometrial preparation in women undergoing fresh donor cycles and frozen embryo transfers.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard methodological procedures recommended by Cochrane. We analysed all available interventions versus placebo, no treatment, or between each other. The primary review outcome was live birth rate. Secondary outcomes were clinical and multiple pregnancy, miscarriage, cycle cancellation, endometrial thickness and adverse effects.

MAIN RESULTS

Thirty-one RCTs (5426 women) were included. Evidence was moderate to very low-quality: the main limitations were serious risk of bias due to poor reporting of methods, and serious imprecision. Stimulated versus programmed cycle We are uncertain whether a letrozole-stimulated cycle compared to a programmed cycle, for endometrial preparation, improves LBR (odds ratio (OR) 1.26, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.49 to 3.26; 100 participants; one study; very low-quality evidence). Stimulating with follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), letrozole or clomiphene citrate may improve clinical pregnancy rate (CPR) (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.38; 656 participants; five studies; I² = 11%; low-quality evidence). We are uncertain if they reduce miscarriage rate (MR) (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.36 to 1.71; 355 participants; three studies; I² = 0%; very low-quality evidence). Endometrial thickness (ET) may be reduced with clomiphene citrate (mean difference(MD) -1.04, 95% CI -1.59 to -0.49; 92 participants; one study; low-quality evidence). Other outcomes were not reported. Natural versus programmed cycle We are uncertain of the effect from a natural versus programmed cycle for LBR (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.28; 1285 participants; four studies; I² = 0%; very low-quality evidence) and CPR (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.01; 1249 participants; five studies; I² = 60%; very low-quality evidence), while a natural cycle probably reduces the cycle cancellation rate (CCR) (OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.82; 734 participants; one study; moderate-quality evidence). We are uncertain of the effect on MR and ET. No study reported other outcomes. Transdermal versus oral oestrogens From low-quality evidence we are uncertain of the effect transdermal compared to oral oestrogens has on CPR (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.25; 504 participants; three studies; I² = 58%) or MR (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.27 to 1.09; 414 participants; two studies; I² = 0%). Other outcomes were not reported. Day of starting administration of progestogen When doing a fresh ET using donated oocytes in a synchronised cycle starting progestogen on the day of oocyte pick-up (OPU) or the day after OPU, in comparison with recipients that start progestogen the day prior to OPU, probably increases the CPR (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.13 to 3.08; 282 participants; one study, moderate-quality evidence). We are uncertain of the effect on multiple pregnancy rate (MPR) or MR. It probably reduces the CCR (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.74; 282 participants; one study; moderate-quality evidence). No study reported other outcomes. Gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist versus control A cycle with GnRH agonist compared to without may improve LBR (OR 2.62, 95% CI 1.19 to 5.78; 234 participants; one study; low-quality evidence). From low-quality evidence we are uncertain of the effect on CPR (OR 1.08, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.43; 1289 participants; eight studies; I² = 20%), MR (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.36 to 2.00; 828 participants; four studies; I² = 0%), CCR (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.21 to 1.17; 530 participants; two studies; I² = 0%) and ET (MD -0.08, 95% CI -0.33 to 0.16; 697 participants; four studies; I² = 4%). No study reported other outcomes. Among different GnRH agonists From very low-quality evidence we are uncertain if cycles among different GnRH agonists improves CPR or MR. No study reported other outcomes. GnRH agonists versus GnRH antagonists GnRH antagonists compared to agonists probably improves CPR (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.90; 473 participants; one study; moderate-quality evidence). We are uncertain of the effect on MR and MPR. No study reported other outcomes. Aspirin versus control From very low-quality evidence we are uncertain whether a cycle with aspirin versus without improves LBR, CPR, or ET. Steroids versus control From very low-quality evidence we are uncertain whether a cycle with steroids compared to without improves LBR, CPR or MR. No study reported other outcomes.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is insufficient evidence on the use of any particular intervention for endometrial preparation in women undergoing fresh donor cycles and frozen embryo transfers. In frozen embryo transfers, low-quality evidence showed that clinical pregnancy rates may be improved in a stimulated cycle compared to a programmed one, and we are uncertain of the effect when comparing a programmed cycle to a natural cycle. Cycle cancellation rates are probably reduced in a natural cycle. Although administering a GnRH agonist, compared to without, may improve live birth rates, clinical pregnancy rates will probably be improved in a GnRH antagonist cycle over an agonist cycle. In fresh synchronised oocyte donor cycles, the clinical pregnancy rate is probably improved and cycle cancellation rates are probably reduced when starting progestogen the day of or day after donor oocyte retrieval. Adequately powered studies are needed to evaluate each treatment more accurately.

The quality of clinical practice guidelines for preoperative care using the AGREE II instrument: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Our aim was to summarize and compare relevant recommendations from evidence-based CPGs (EB-CPGs).

METHODS

Systematic review of clinical practice guidelines.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, EMBase, Cochrane Library, LILACS, Tripdatabase, and additional sources. In July 2017, we searched CPGs that were published in the last 10 years, without language restrictions, in electronic databases, and also searched specific CPG sources, reference lists, and consulted experts. Pairs of independent reviewers selected EB-CPGs and rated their methodological quality using the AGREE-II instrument. We summarized recommendations, its supporting evidence, and strength of recommendations according to the GRADE methodology.

RESULTS

We included 16 EB-CPGs out of 2262 references identified. Only nine of them had searches within the last 5 years and seven used GRADE. The median (percentile 25-75) AGREE-II scores for rigor of development was 49% (35-76%) and the domain "applicability" obtained the worst score 16% (9-31%). We summarized 31 risk stratification recommendations, 21.6% of which were supported by high/moderate quality of evidence (41% of them were strong recommendations), and 16 therapeutic/preventive recommendations, 59% of which were supported by high/moderate quality of evidence (75.7% strong). We found inconsistency in ratings of evidence level. "Guidelines' applicability" and "monitoring" were the most deficient domains. Only half of the EB-CPGs were updated in the past 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

We present many strong recommendations that are ready to be considered for implementation as well as others to be interrupted, and we reveal opportunities to improve guidelines' quality.

Ventriculo-peritoneal shunting devices for hydrocephalus

BACKGROUND

Hydrocephalus is a common neurological disorder, caused by a progressive accumulation of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) within the intracranial space that can lead to increased intracranial pressure, enlargement of the ventricles (ventriculomegaly) and, consequently, to brain damage. Ventriculo-peritoneal shunt systems are the mainstay therapy for this condition, however there are different types of shunt systems.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the effectiveness and adverse effects of conventional and complex shunt devices for CSF diversion in people with hydrocephalus.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (2020 Issue 2); Ovid MEDLINE (1946 to February 2020); Embase (Elsevier) (1974 to February 2020); Latin American and Caribbean Health Science Information Database (LILACS) (1980 to February 2020); ClinicalTrials.gov; and World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We selected randomised controlled trials or quasi-randomised trials of different types of ventriculo-peritoneal shunting devices for people with hydrocephalus. Primary outcomes included: treatment failure, adverse events and mortality.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors screened studies for selection, assessed risk of bias and extracted data. Due to the scarcity of data, we performed a Synthesis Without Meta-analysis (SWiM) incorporating GRADE for the quality of the evidence.

MAIN RESULTS

We included six studies with 962 participants assessing the effects of standard valves compared to anti-syphon valves, other types of standard valves, self-adjusting CSF flow-regulating valves and external differential programmable pressure valves. All included studies started in a hospital setting and offered ambulatory follow-up. Most studies were conducted in infants or children with hydrocephalus from diverse causes. The certainty of the evidence for most comparisons was low to very low. 1. Standard valve versus anti-syphon valve Three studies with 296 randomised participants were included under this comparison. We are uncertain about the incidence of treatment failure in participants with standard valve and anti-syphon valves (very low certainty of the evidence). The incidence of adverse events may be similar in those with standard valves (range 0 to 1.9%) and anti-syphon valves (range 0 to 2.9%) (low certainty of the evidence). Mortality may be similar in those with standard valves (0%) and anti-syphon valves (0.9%) (RD 0.01%, 95% CI -0.02% to 0.03%, low certainty of the evidence). Ventricular size and head circumference may be similar in those with standard valves and anti-syphon valves (low certainty of the evidence). None of the included studies reported the quality of life of participants. 2. Comparison between different types of standard valves Two studies with 174 randomised participants were included under this comparison. We are uncertain about the incidence of treatment failure in participants with different types of standard valves (early postoperative period: RR 0.41, 95% CI 0.13 to 1.27; at 12 months follow-up: RR 1.17, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.92, very low certainty of the evidence). None of the included studies reported adverse events beyond those included under "treatment failure". We are uncertain about the effects of different types of standard valves on mortality (range 2% to 17%, very low certainty of the evidence). The included studies did not report the effects of these interventions on quality of life, ventricular size reduction or head circumference. 3. Standard valve versus self-adjusting CSF flow-regulating valve One study with 229 randomised participants addressed this comparison. The incidence of treatment failure may be similar in those with standard valves (42.98%) and self-adjusting CSF flow-regulating valves (39.13%) (low certainty of the evidence). The incidence of adverse events may be similar in those with standard valves (range 0 to 1.9%) and those with self-adjusting CSF flow-regulating valves (range 0 to 7.2%) (low certainty of the evidence). The included study reported no deaths in either group in the postoperative period. Beyond the early postoperative period, the authors stated that nine patients died (no disaggregated data by each type of intervention was available, low certainty of the evidence). The included studies did not report the effects of these interventions on quality of life, ventricular size reduction or head circumference. 4. External differential programmable pressure valve versus non-programmable valve One study with 377 randomised participants addressed this comparison. The incidence of treatment failure may be similar in those with programmable valves (52%) and non-programmable valves (52%)  (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.24, low certainty of the evidence). The incidence of adverse events may be similar in those with programmable valves (6.19%) and non-programmable valves (6.01%) (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.44 to 2.15, low certainty of the evidence). The included study did not report the effect of these interventions on mortality, quality of life or head circumference. Ventricular size reduction may be similar in those with programmable valves and non-programmable valves (low certainty of the evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Standard shunt valves for hydrocephalus compared to anti-syphon or self-adjusting CSF flow-regulating valves may cause little to no difference on the main outcomes of this review, however we are very uncertain due to the low to very low certainty of evidence. Similarly, different types of standard valves and external differential programmable pressure valves versus non-programmable valves may be associated with similar outcomes. Nevertheless, this review did not include valves with the latest technology, for which we need high-quality randomised controlled trials focusing on patient-important outcomes including costs.

Impact of Specialized Pediatric Palliative Care: A Systematic Review

CONTEXT

Specialized pediatric palliative care (SPPC) is increasingly involved in the care of seriously ill children, yet the evidence on its impact has not been comprehensively reviewed.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to assess the effects of providing SPPC to seriously ill children on patient-, caregiver-, and systems-level outcomes.

METHODS

We performed a Systematic Review following Cochrane methods.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Global Health, The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, LILACS, and Web of Science were searched from January 1996 to June 2018.

STUDY SELECTION/DATA EXTRACTION

We included randomized controlled, cohort, case-control, and before-after studies in which exposure to SPPC services was the intervention of interest. All outcomes reported in these studies were included. Two investigators independently selected articles, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias of included studies using standardized criteria.

RESULTS

Twenty-four studies were included in qualitative synthesis: one nonrandomized controlled trial, 16 cohort studies, and seven before-after studies. Evidence certainty was low. Twenty-one studies had one or more area with high risk of bias, most commonly selection bias, low group comparability, risk for confounding, and inadequate statistical reporting. Studies analyzed 46 domains, operationalized as 136 distinct outcomes. SPPC was associated with better child quality of life scores in all four studies that assessed this outcome. No other outcome showed this consistency.

CONCLUSION

Receiving SPPC was associated with better child quality of life. However, the paucity and low certainty of the evidence precluded any firm recommendations about SPPC practice. Larger collaborative networks and greater consensus regarding SPPC research standards are needed.

Epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease in Mexico and Colombia: Analysis of health databases, mathematical modelling and a case-series study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Ulcerative Colitis (UC) and Crohn's Disease (CD) have a major impact on quality of life and medical costs. The aim of the study was to estimate the prevalence, incidence and clinical phenotypes of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) cases in Mexico and Colombia.

METHODS

We analyzed official administrative and health databases, used mathematical modelling to estimate the incidence and complete prevalence, and performed a case-series of IBD patients at a referral center both in Mexico and Colombia.

RESULTS

The age-adjusted complete prevalence of UC per 100,000 inhabitants for 2015/2016 ranged from 15.65 to 71.19 in Mexico and from 27.40 to 69.97 in Colombia depending on the model considered. The prevalence of CD per 100,000 inhabitants in Mexico ranged from 15.45 to 18.08 and from 16.75 to 18.43 in Colombia. In Mexico, the age-adjusted incidence of UC per 100,000 inhabitants per year ranged from 0.90 to 2.30, and from 0.55 to 2.33 in Colombia. The incidence for CD in Mexico ranged from 0.35 to 0.66 whereas in Colombia, the age-adjusted incidence of CD ranged from 0.30 to 0.57. The case-series included 200 IBD patients from Mexico and 204 patients from Colombia. The UC/CD prevalence ratio in Mexico and Colombia was 1.50:1 and 4.5:1 respectively. In Mexico, the female/male prevalence ratio for UC was 1.50:1 and 1.28:1 for CD, while in Colombia this ratio was 0.68:1 for UC and 0.8:1 for CD. In Mexico the relapse rate for UC was 63.3% and 72.5% for CD, while those rates in Colombia were 58.2% for UC and 58.3% for CD.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated burden of disease of IBD in Mexico and Colombia is not negligible. Although these findings need to be confirmed by population-based studies, they are useful for decision-makers, practitioners and patients with this condition.

Sequential inactivated (IPV) and live oral (OPV) poliovirus vaccines for preventing poliomyelitis

BACKGROUND

Poliomyelitis mainly affects unvaccinated children under five years of age, causing irreversible paralysis or even death. The oral polio vaccine (OPV) contains live attenuated virus, which can, in rare cases, cause a paralysis known as vaccine-associated paralytic polio (VAPP), and also vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) due to acquired neurovirulence after prolonged duration of replication. The incidence of poliomyelitis caused by wild polio virus (WPV) has declined dramatically since the introduction of OPV and later the inactivated polio vaccine (IPV), however, the cases of paralysis linked to the OPV are currently more frequent than those related to the WPV. Therefore, in 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended at least one IPV dose preceding routine immunisation with OPV to reduce VAPPs and VDPVs until polio could be eradicated.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness, safety, and immunogenicity of sequential IPV-OPV immunisation schemes compared to either OPV or IPV alone.

SEARCH METHODS

In May 2019 we searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, 14 other databases, three trials registers and reports of adverse effects on four web sites. We also searched the references of identified studies, relevant reviews and contacted authors to identify additional references.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-RCTs, controlled before-after studies, nationwide uncontrolled before-after studies (UBAs), interrupted time series (ITS) and controlled ITS comparing sequential IPV-OPV schedules (one or more IPV doses followed by one or more OPV doses) with IPV alone, OPV alone or non-sequential IPV-OPV combinations.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 21 studies: 16 RCTs involving 6407 healthy infants (age range 96 to 975 days, mean 382 days), one ITS with 28,330 infants and four nationwide studies (two ITS, two UBA). Ten RCTs were conducted in high-income countries; five in the USA, two in the UK, and one each in Chile, Israel, and Oman. The remaining six RCTs were conducted in middle-income countries; China, Bangladesh, Guatemala, India, and Thailand. We rated all included RCTs at low or unclear risk of bias for randomisation domains, most at high or unclear risk of attrition bias, and half at high or unclear risk for conflict of interests. Almost all RCTs were at low risk for the remaining domains. ITSs and UBAs were mainly considered at low risk of bias for most domains. IPV-OPV versus OPV It is uncertain if an IPV followed by OPV schedule is better than OPV alone at reducing the number of WPV cases (very low-certainty evidence); however, it may reduce VAPP cases by 54% to 100% (three nationwide studies; low-certainty evidence). There is little or no difference in vaccination coverage between IPV-OPV and OPV-only schedules (risk ratio (RR) 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96 to 1.06; 1 ITS study; low-certainty evidence). Similarly, there is little or no difference between the two schedule types for the number of serious adverse events (SAEs) (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.46 to 1.70; 4 studies, 1948 participants; low-certainty evidence); or the number of people with protective humoral response P1 (moderate-certainty evidence), P2 (for the most studied schedule; two IPV doses followed by OPV; low-certainty evidence), and P3 (low-certainty evidence). Two IPV doses followed by bivalent OPV (IIbO) may reduce P2 neutralising antibodies compared to trivalent OPV (moderate-certainty evidence), but may make little or no difference to P1 or P2 neutralising antibodies following an IIO schedule or OPV alone (low-certainty evidence). Both IIO and IIbO schedules may increase P3 neutralising antibodies compared to OPV (moderate-certainty evidence). It may also lead to lower mucosal immunity given increased faecal excretion of P1 (low-certainty evidence), P2 and P3 (moderate-certainty evidence) after OPV challenge. IPV-OPV versus IPV It is uncertain if IPV-OPV is more effective than IPV alone at reducing the number of WPV cases (very low-certainty evidence). There were no data regarding VAPP cases. There is no clear evidence of a difference between IPV-OPV and OPV schedules for the number of people with protective humoral response (low- and moderate-certainty evidence). IPV-OPV schedules may increase mean titres of P1 neutralising antibodies compared to OPV alone (low- and moderate-certainty evidence), but the effect on P2 and P3 titres is not clear (very low- and moderate-certainty evidence). IPV-OPV probably reduces the number of people with P3 poliovirus faecal excretion after OPV challenge with IIO and IIOO sequences (moderate-certainty evidence), and may reduce the number with P2 (low-certainty evidence), but not with P1 (very low-certainty evidence). There may be little or no difference between the schedules in number of SAEs (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.60 to 1.43; 2 studies, 1063 participants, low-certainty evidence). The number of persons with P2 protective humoral immunity and P2 neutralising antibodies are probably lower with most sequential schemes without P2 components (i.e. bOPV) than with trivalent OPV or IVP alone (moderate-certainty evidence). IPV (3)-OPV versus IPV (2)-OPV One study (137 participants) showed no clear evidence of a difference between three IPV doses followed by OPV and two IPV doses followed by OPV, on the number of people with P1 (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.03), P2 (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.03), or P3 (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.05) protective humoral and intestinal immunity; all moderate-certainty evidence. This study did not report on any other outcomes.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

IPV-OPV compared to OPV may reduce VAPPs without affecting vaccination coverage, safety or humoral response, except P2 with sequential schemes without P2 components, but increase poliovirus faecal excretion after OPV challenge for some polio serotypes. Compared to IPV-only schedules, IPV-OPV may have little or no difference on SAEs, probably has little or no effect on persons with protective humoral response, may increase neutralising antibodies, and probably reduces faecal excretion after OPV challenge of certain polio serotypes. Using three IPV doses as part of a IPV-OPV schedule does not appear to be better than two IPV doses for protective humoral response. Sequential schedules during the transition from OPV to IPV-only immunisation schedules seems a reasonable option aligned with current WHO recommendations. Findings could help decision-makers to optimise polio vaccination policies, reducing inequities between countries.

Indomethacin for intracranial hypertension secondary to severe traumatic brain injury in adults

BACKGROUND

Among people who have suffered a traumatic brain injury, increased intracranial pressure continues to be a major cause of early death; it is estimated that about 11 people per 100 with traumatic brain injury die. Indomethacin (also known as indometacin) is a powerful cerebral vasoconstrictor that can reduce intracranial pressure and, ultimately, restore cerebral perfusion and oxygenation. Thus, indomethacin may improve the recovery of a person with traumatic brain injury.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of indomethacin for adults with severe traumatic brain injury.

SEARCH METHODS

We ran the searches from inception to 23 August 2019. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; 2019, Issue 8) in the Cochrane Library, Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, CINAHL Plus (EBSCO), four other databases, and clinical trials registries. We also screened reference lists and conference abstracts, and contacted experts in the field.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Our search criteria included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that compared indomethacin with any control in adults presenting with severe traumatic brain injury associated with elevated intracranial pressure, with no previous decompressive surgery.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently decided on the selection of the studies. We followed standard Cochrane methods.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified no eligible studies for this review, either completed or ongoing.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found no studies, either completed or ongoing, that assessed the effects of indomethacin in controlling intracranial hypertension secondary to severe traumatic brain injury. Thus, we cannot draw any conclusions about the effects of indomethacin on intracranial pressure, mortality rates, quality of life, disability or adverse effects. This absence of evidence should not be interpreted as evidence of no effect for indomethacin in controlling intracranial hypertension secondary to severe traumatic brain injury. It means that we have not identified eligible research for this review.

Alcohol consumption's attributable disease burden and cost-effectiveness of targeted public health interventions: a systematic review of mathematical models

Background

Around 6% of total deaths are related to alcohol consumption worldwide. Mathematical models are important tools to estimate disease burden and to assess the cost-effectiveness of interventions to address this burden.

Methods

We carried out a systematic review on models, searching main health literature databases up to July 2017. Pairs of reviewers independently selected, extracted data and assessed the quality of the included studies. Discrepancies were resolved by consensus. We selected those models exploring: a) disease burden (main metrics being attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life years, quality-adjusted life years) or b) economic evaluations of health interventions or policies, based on models including the aforementioned outcomes. We grouped models into broad families according to their common central methodological approach.

Results

Out of 4295 reports identified, 63 met our inclusion criteria and were categorized in three main model families that were described in detail: 1) State transition -i.e Markov- models, 2) Life Table-based models and 3) Attributable fraction-based models. Most studies pertained to the latter one (n = 29, 48.3%). A few miscellaneous models could not be framed into these families.

Conclusions

Our findings can be useful for future researchers and decision makers planning to undertake alcohol-related disease burden or cost-effectiveness studies. We found several different families of models. Countries interested in adopting relevant public health measures may choose or adapt the one deemed most convenient, based on the availability of existing data at the local level, burden of work, and public health and economic outcomes of interest.

The effectiveness of the quality improvement collaborative strategy in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Quality improvement collaboratives (QICs) have been used to improve health care for decades. Evidence on QIC effectiveness has been reported, but systematic reviews to date have little information from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effectiveness of QICs in LMICs.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review following Cochrane methods, the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach for quality of evidence grading, and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) statement for reporting. We searched published and unpublished studies between 1969 and March 2019 from LMICs. We included papers that compared usual practice with QICs alone or combined with other interventions. Pairs of reviewers independently selected and assessed the risk of bias and extracted data of included studies. To estimate strategy effectiveness from a single study comparison, we used the median effect size (MES) in the comparison for outcomes in the same outcome group. The primary analysis evaluated each strategy group with a weighted median and interquartile range (IQR) of MES values. In secondary analyses, standard random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate the weighted mean MES and 95% confidence interval (CI) of the mean MES of each strategy group. This review is registered with PROSPERO (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews): CRD42017078108.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine studies were included; most (21/29, 72.4%) were interrupted time series studies. Evidence quality was generally low to very low. Among studies involving health facility-based health care providers (HCPs), for "QIC only", effectiveness varied widely across outcome groups and tended to have little effect for patient health outcomes (median MES less than 2 percentage points for percentage and continuous outcomes). For "QIC plus training", effectiveness might be very high for patient health outcomes (for continuous outcomes, median MES 111.6 percentage points, range: 96.0 to 127.1) and HCP practice outcomes (median MES 52.4 to 63.4 percentage points for continuous and percentage outcomes, respectively). The only study of lay HCPs, which used "QIC plus training", showed no effect on patient care-seeking behaviors (MES -0.9 percentage points), moderate effects on non-care-seeking patient behaviors (MES 18.7 percentage points), and very large effects on HCP practice outcomes (MES 50.4 percentage points).

CONCLUSIONS

The effectiveness of QICs varied considerably in LMICs. QICs combined with other invention components, such as training, tended to be more effective than QICs alone. The low evidence quality and large effect sizes for QIC plus training justify additional high-quality studies assessing this approach in LMICs.