Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Adhesion of Candida Albicans to digital versus conventional acrylic resins: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The present systematic review and meta-analysis investigated the available evidence about the adherence of Candida Albicans to the digitally-fabricated acrylic resins (both milled and 3D-printed) compared to the conventional heat-polymerized acrylic resins.

METHODS

This study followed the guidelines of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analyses (PRISMA). A comprehensive search of online databases/search tools (Web of Science, Scopus, PubMed, Ovid, and Google Scholar) was conducted for all relevant studies published up until May 29, 2023. Only in-vitro studies comparing the adherence of Candida albicans to the digital and conventional acrylic resins were included. The quantitative analyses were performed using RevMan v5.3 software.

RESULTS

Fourteen studies were included, 11 of which were meta-analyzed based on Colony Forming Unit (CFU) and Optical Density (OD) outcome measures. The pooled data revealed significantly lower candida colonization on the milled digitally-fabricated compared to the heat-polymerized conventionally-fabricated acrylic resin materials (MD = - 0.36; 95%CI = - 0.69, - 0.03; P = 0.03 and MD = - 0.04; 95%CI = - 0.06, - 0.01; P = 0.0008; as measured by CFU and OD respectively). However, no differences were found in the adhesion of Candida albicans between the 3D-printed digitally-fabricated compared to the heat-polymerized conventionally-fabricated acrylic resin materials (CFU: P = 0.11, and OD: P = 0.20).

CONCLUSION

The available evidence suggests that candida is less likely to adhere to the milled digitally-fabricated acrylic resins compared to the conventional ones.

A disfiguring neglected tropical disease sweeps war-torn Yemen: a community-based study of prevalence and risk factors of cutaneous leishmaniasis among rural communities in the western highlands

BACKGROUND

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a major health problem in Yemen and is endemic in many rural areas across the country.

METHODS

A community-based cross-sectional survey followed by unmatched case-control comparisons was conducted among 612 participants in Utmah district, western Yemen. A total of 223 participants were included in the case-control analysis to identify the significant risk factors. Skin scrapping samples were examined by microscopy and internal transcribed spacer 1 nested polymerase chain reaction.

RESULTS

Overall, 33% (202/612) of the participants had active skin lesions and/or scars that met the clinical criteria for CL. A total of 90 (14.7%) participants had suspected active CL lesions; however, a prevalence of 8.7% (53/612) was obtained based on molecular and parasitological examination, with Leishmania tropica being the only causative agent identified. Multivariable logistic regression analyses showed that being ≤10 y old, being female, living in houses with cracked walls, living in the presence of other family members with typical ulcerating skin diseases and sleeping outside were factors significantly associated with an increased likelihood of having CL. Moreover, keeping livestock on the ground floor of the house was significantly associated with a decreased likelihood of having CL.

CONCLUSION

The study reveals an alarmingly high prevalence of CL among the studied population. Therefore there is an urgent need for effective control measures and improved treatment efforts against this devastating disease.

Elevated Levels of Procoagulant Microvesicles and Tissue-Factor Bearing Microvesicles in Malaria Patients

Background

Procoagulant microvesicles (MVs) are submicron membrane fragments released from activated cells and cells undergoing apoptosis. The procoagulant activity of MVs is enhanced in the presence of tissue factor (TF). MVs and TF are active mediators that induce pro-inflammatory response and prothrombotic tendency and have been linked to the severity of several disorders, including malaria infection. The current study aimed to measure the levels of circulating procoagulant MVs and TF-bearing MVs in malaria patients and correlate these levels with other hematological parameters and parasitemia.

Materials and Methods

Levels of MVs and TF-bearing MVs in the plasma of children and adult patients infected with Plasmodium falciparum were measured alongside matched healthy controls.

Results

Patients with Plasmodium falciparum infection had ~3.8 times MVs (p < 0.0001) and ~13.0 times TF-bearing MVs compared to the matched healthy controls. MVs showed inverse significant correlation with platelet count (p = 0.0055), hemoglobin (p = 0.0004) and parasitemia.

Conclusion

Elevated levels of MVs and TF-bearing MVs could be useful biomarkers to evaluate the procoagulant activity, inflammatory response and parasitemia levels in malaria infection, aiding in better management of the disease.

The emergence of an imported variant of dengue virus serotype 2 in the Jazan region, southwestern Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Dengue virus (DENV) infection is a global economic and public health concern, particularly in tropical and subtropical countries where it is endemic. Saudi Arabia has seen an increase in DENV infections, especially in the western and southwestern regions. This study aims to investigate the genetic variants of DENV-2 that were circulating during a serious outbreak in Jazan region in 2019.

METHODS

A total of 482 serum samples collected during 2019 from Jazan region were tested with reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to detect and classify DENV; positive samples underwent sequencing and bioinformatics analyses.

RESULTS

Out of 294 positive samples, type-specific RT-PCR identified 58.8% as DENV-2 but could not identify 41.2%. Based on sequencing and bioinformatics analyses, the samples tested PCR positive in the first round but PCR negative in the second round were found to be imported genetic variant of DENV-2. The identified DENV-2 imported variant showed similarities to DENV-2 sequences reported in Malaysia, Singapore, Korea and China. The results revealed the imported genetic variant of DENV-2 was circulating in Jazan region that was highly prevalent and it was likely a major factor in this outbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

The emergence of imported DENV variants is a serious challenge for the dengue fever surveillance and control programmes in endemic areas. Therefore, further investigations and continuous surveillance of existing and new viral strains in the region are warranted.

Molecular analysis of knockdown resistance (kdr) mutations in the voltage-gated sodium channel gene of Aedes aegypti populations from Saudi Arabia

Background

The Aedes aegypti mosquito is the primary vector for dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever and Zika viruses worldwide. The first record of Ae. aegypti in southwestern Saudi Arabia was in 1956. However, the first outbreak and cases of dengue fever were reported in 1994, and cases have increased in recent years. Vector control for Ae. aegypti mainly uses pyrethroid insecticides in outdoor and indoor space spraying. The constant use of pyrethroids has exerted intense selection pressure for developing target-site mutations in the voltage-gated sodium channel (vgsc) gene in Ae. Aegypti against pyrethroids—mutations that have led to knockdown resistance (kdr).

Methods

Aedes aegypti field populations from five regions (Jazan, Sahil, Makkah, Jeddah and Madinah) of southwestern Saudi Arabia were genotyped for known kdr mutations in domains IIS6 and IIIS6 of the vgsc gene using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification and sequencing. We estimated the frequency of kdr mutations and genotypes from Saudi Arabia as well as from other countries, Thailand, Myanmar (Southeast Asia) and Uganda (East Africa). We constructed haplotype networks to infer the evolutionary relationships of these gene regions.

Results

The three known kdr mutations, S989P, V1016G (IIS6) and F1534C (IIIS6), were detected in all five regions of Saudi Arabia. Interestingly, the triple homozygous wild genotype was reported for the first time in two individuals from the highlands of the Jazan region and one from the Al-Quoz, Sahil region. Overall, nine genotypes comprising four haplotypes were observed in southwestern Saudi Arabia. The median-joining haplotype networks of eight populations from Saudi Arabia, Southeast Asia and East Africa for both the IIS6 and IIIS6 domains revealed that haplotype diversity was highest in Uganda and in the Jazan and Sahil regions of Saudi Arabia, whereas haplotype diversity was low in the Jeddah, Makkah and Madinah regions. Median-joining haplotype networks of both domains indicated selection acting on the kdr-mutation containing haplotypes in Saudi Arabia.

Conclusions

The presence of wild type haplotypes without any of the three kdr mutations, i.e. that are fully susceptible, in Saudi Arabia indicates that further consideration should be given to insecticide resistance management strategies that could restore pyrethroid sensitivity to the populations of Ae. aegypti in Saudi Arabia as part of an integrative vector control strategy.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05525-y.

Procoagulant Microvesicles in COVID-19 Patients: Possible Modulators of Inflammation and Prothrombotic Tendency

Background

The hypercoagulability and thrombotic tendency in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is multifactorial, driven mainly by inflammation, and endothelial dysfunction. Elevated levels of procoagulant microvesicles (MVs) and tissue factor–bearing microvesicles (TF-bearing MVs) have been observed in many diseases with thrombotic tendency. The current study aimed to measure the levels of procoagulant MVs and TF-bearing MVs in patients with COVID-19 and healthy controls and to correlate their levels with platelet counts, D-Dimer levels, and other proposed calculated inflammatory markers.

Materials and Methods

Forty ICU-admitted patients with COVID-19 and 37 healthy controls were recruited in the study. Levels of procoagulant MVs and TF-bearing MVs in the plasma of the study population were measured using enzyme linked immunosorbent assay.

Results

COVID-19 patients had significantly elevated levels of procoagulant MVs and TF-bearing MVs as compared with healthy controls (P<0.001). Procoagulant MVs significantly correlated with TF-bearing MVs, D-dimer levels, and platelet count, but not with calculated inflammatory markers (neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, platelet/lymphocyte ratio, and platelet/neutrophil ratio).

Conclusion

Elevated levels of procoagulant MVs and TF-bearing MVs in patients with COVID-19 are suggested to be (i) early potential markers to predict the severity of COVID-19 (ii) a novel circulatory biomarker to evaluate the procoagulant activity and severity of COVID-19.

Human Alkhumra hemorrhagic Fever: Emergence, history and epidemiological and clinical profiles

Alkhumra hemorrhagic fever (AHF) is a severe, often fatal hemorrhagic disease in humans. It is caused by Alkhumra hemorrhagic fever virus (AHFV), a newly described flavivirus first isolated in 1995 in Alkhumra district, south of Jeddah City, Saudi Arabia. It is transmitted from infected livestock animals to humans by direct contact with infected animals or by tick bites. In the recent past, the incidence of AHF has increased, with a total of 604 confirmed cases have been reported in Saudi Arabia between 1995 and 2020. Yet, no specific treatment or control strategies have been developed and implemented against this infection. Hence, the likelihood of increased prevalence or the occurrence of outbreaks is high, particularly in the absence of appropriate prevention and control strategies. This narrative review presents an overview of the current knowledge and future concerns about AHF globally.

Plasmodium falciparum histidine rich protein 2 (pfhrp2): an additional genetic marker suitable for anti-malarial drug efficacy trials

Background

Genotyping of the three Plasmodium falciparum polymorphic genes, msp1, msp2 and glurp, has been adopted as a standard strategy to distinguish recrudescence from new infection in drug efficacy clinical trials. However, the suitability of a particular gene is compromised in areas where its allelic variants distribution is significantly skewed, a phenomenon that might occur in isolated parasite populations or in areas of very low transmission. Moreover, observation of amplification bias has diminished the value of glurp as a marker.

Methods

The suitability of the polymorphic P. falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (pfhrp2) gene was assessed to serve as an alternative marker using a PCR-sequencing or a PCR–RFLP protocol for genotyping of samples in drug efficacy clinical trials. The value of pfhrp2 was validated by side-by-side analyses of 5 admission-recrudescence sample pairs from Yemeni malaria patients.

Results

The outcome of the single pfhrp2 gene discrimination analysis has been found consistent with msp1, msp2 and glurp pool genotyping analysis for the differentiation of recrudescence from new infection.

Conclusion

The findings suggest that under the appropriate circumstances, pfhrp2 can serve as an additional molecular marker for monitoring anti-malarials efficacy. However, its use is restricted to endemic areas where only a minority of P. falciparum parasites lack the pfhrp2 gene.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-021-04014-4.

Epidemiological screening and serotyping analysis of dengue fever in the Southwestern region of Saudi Arabia

Dengue is an acute systemic viral disease that has been developed globally in both chronic and epidemic transmission periods. Dengue virus (DENV) is a member of the Flavivirus genus of the Flaviviridae family, which endangers public health. Limited studies have been performed in the Saudi Arabia and there are no epidemiological as well as molecular screening of DENV in the Southwestern region and this current study was conducted on the epidemiology of dengue in the Southwestern region of Saudi Arabia. Simultaneously, we have screened the 100 patients for DENV using the real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay. The current study results confirmed that 6637 people from various hospitals and locations in Jazan, Southwestern regions, were enrolled in this study from 2012 to 2020. The overall mean age was 30.02 ± 18.01 years, with 62.8% of males and 37.2% of females enrolled. This study included nearly three-fourths of the Saudi participants and one-fourth of the expatriates, and 56.6% of the positive cases were enrolled. In 2019, the most instances were enrolled, with 44% of positive cases. When screened using the RT-PCR assay, 93% of the positive patients were recruited, according to the quality control analysis. In conclusion, the current study results confirmed the prevalence of DENV was increased drastically since 2012 to 2020. High number of cases were registered prior to the Pandemic. The screening for DENV was performed with RT-PCR assay and NSI antigen should also be implemented to cross-check the results which was previously performed with RT-PCR analysis.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Tuberculosis among people living with HIV/AIDS in Jazan Region, Southwestern Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) infections are leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. People living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) are highly susceptible to TB infection and progression to active TB disease. This study aims to determine the proportion and risk factors of TB among PLWHA in Jazan Region, southwestern Saudi Arabia.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted among HIV-infected individuals attending the main referral hospital in Jazan Region during the period 2017-2019. The participants' TB status, CD4+ lymphocyte count, and viral load were assessed. In addition, their demographic and clinical information was collected using a structured questionnaire.

RESULTS

A total of 316 HIV-positive individuals aged between 13 and 81 years (75% male and 25% female) were enrolled in this study. Of them, 30 (9.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.2, 10.6%) were diagnosed with TB: 46.7% (14/30) had pulmonary TB and 53.3% (16/30) had extrapulmonary TB. The highest proportion of TB-positive PLWHA was found among participants aged 18-30 years (11.6%) and among non-Saudis (14.0%) when compared to other age groups and Saudi participants (7.4%). Multivariate analysis showed that male gender (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 4.79; 95% CI = 1.22, 18.74), past medical history (PMH) of TB (AOR = 29.67; 95% CI = 5.31, 164.32), PMH of other RTIs (AOR = 5.86; 95 % CI = 2.14, 16.06), CD4+ lymphocyte count of <200 cells/mm³ (AOR = 4.33; 95% CI = 1.65, 11.36), and viral load of ≥1 × 10³ copies/mL (AOR = 5.46; 95% CI = 2.02, 14.77) were the significant risk factors of TB among the studied PLWHA.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of TB/HIV co-infection among the studied population was 9.5%. Therefore, all PLWHA should be screened for TB at every visit to a health facility. The findings highlight that integration of health services for both TB and HIV/AIDS in Saudi Arabia is recommended.

The return of chloroquine-sensitive Plasmodium falciparum parasites in Jazan region, southwestern Saudi Arabia over a decade after the adoption of artemisinin-based combination therapy: analysis of genetic mutations in the pfcrt gene

This study investigated the polymorphism in the P. falciparum chloroquine resistance transporter (pfcrt) gene 11 years after chloroquine (CQ) cessation in Jazan region, southwestern Saudi Arabia. Two hundred and thirty-five P. falciparum isolates were amplified to detect mutations in the pfcrt gene. The pfcrt 76 T molecular marker for CQ resistance was detected in 66.4% (156/235) of the isolates, while the K76 CQ-sensitive wild type was detected in 33.6%. The pfcrt 74I and pfcrt 75E point mutations were each found to be present in 56.2% of isolates, while only four isolates (1.7%) were found to carry the pfcrt 72S mutation. Moreover, four pfcrt haplotypes were identified as follows: the CVIET triple-allele (56.2%), SVMET double-allele (1.7%) and CVMNT single-allele (8.5%) mutant haplotypes and the CVMNK wild haplotype (33.6%). The analysis also revealed significant associations between the prevalence of mutant pfcrt alleles and haplotypes and the age group, governorate and nationality of the patients as well as the parasitaemia level (p < 0.05). The findings provide evidence of the potential re-emergence of CQ-susceptible P. falciparum strains in Jazan region over a decade after CQ discontinuation, with about one third of the isolates analysed carrying the pfcrt K76 CQ-sensitive wild allele and the CVMNK ancestral wild haplotype. Although the reintroduction of CQ cannot be recommended at present in Saudi Arabia, these findings support the rationale for a potential future role for CQ in malaria treatment. Therefore, continuous molecular and in vitro monitoring mutations of pfcrt polymorphism in Jazan region is highly recommended.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Residual malaria in Jazan region, southwestern Saudi Arabia: the situation, challenges and climatic drivers of autochthonous malaria

Background

Saudi Arabia and Yemen are the only two countries in the Arabian Peninsula that are yet to achieve malaria elimination. Over the past two decades, the malaria control programme in Saudi Arabia has successfully reduced the annual number of malaria cases, with the lowest incidence rate across the country reported in 2014. This study aims to investigate the distribution of residual malaria in Jazan region and to identify potential climatic drivers of autochthonous malaria cases in the region.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was carried out from 1 April 2018 to 31 January 2019 in Jazan region, southwestern Saudi Arabia, which targeted febrile individuals attending hospitals and primary healthcare centres. Participants’ demographic data were collected, including age, gender, nationality, and residence. Moreover, association of climatic variables with the monthly autochthonous malaria cases reported during the period of 2010–2017 was retrospectively analysed.

Results

A total of 1124 febrile subjects were found to be positive for malaria during the study period. Among them, 94.3 and 5.7% were infected with Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, respectively. In general, subjects aged 18–30 years and those aged over 50 years had the highest (42.7%) and lowest (5.9%) percentages of malaria cases. Similarly, the percentage of malaria-positive cases was higher among males than females (86.2 vs 13.8%), among non-Saudi compared to Saudi subjects (70.6 vs 29.4%), and among patients residing in rural rather than in urban areas (89.8 vs 10.2%). A total of 407 autochthonous malaria cases were reported in Jazan region between 2010 and 2017. Results of zero-inflated negative binomial regression analysis showed that monthly average temperature and relative humidity were the significant climatic determinants of autochthonous malaria in the region.

Conclusion

Malaria remains a public health problem in most governorates of Jazan region. The identification and monitoring of malaria transmission hotspots and predictors would enable control efforts to be intensified and focused on specific areas and therefore expedite the elimination of residual malaria from the whole region.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-021-03846-4.

A cross-sectional survey of the knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding schistosomiasis among rural schoolchildren in Taiz governorate, southwestern Yemen

BACKGROUND

This cross-sectional survey aimed to assess the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) towards schistosomiasis among rural schoolchildren in Taiz governorate, southwestern Yemen.

METHODS

A total of 406 children were screened for urogenital and intestinal schistosomiasis. A pretested questionnaire was used to collect the children's demographic and socio-economic information and their KAP towards schistosomiasis.

RESULTS

Overall, 73 children (18%) were found to be infected by Schistosoma mansoni. None of the children were positive for Schistosoma haematobium. The prevalence of intestinal schistosomiasis was significantly higher among boys than girls (22.1% vs 12%; p=0.010). Approximately two-thirds (63.3% [257/406]) of the children had heard about schistosomiasis, however, only 38.5%, 53.6%, 28.4% and 38.1% had correct knowledge concerning the causes, symptoms, transmission and prevention, respectively. A significantly higher level of knowledge was observed among boys and Schistosoma-infected children compared with girls and non-infected children (p<0.05). However, a better level of knowledge does not seem to translate directly into the performance of hygienic practices. Multivariate logistic regression showed that sex and infection status were the significant predictors of good knowledge.

CONCLUSIONS

Intestinal schistosomiasis is prevalent among schoolchildren in rural Yemen. The findings reveal that children's knowledge about schistosomiasis is inadequate. Therefore, besides mass drug administration, integrated control programmes should also include health education and the provision of improved drinking water and proper sanitation.

Genetic Diversity and Prevalence of Giardia duodenalis in Qatar

Background

Giardia duodenalis is a common human intestinal parasite worldwide, and the causative agent of diarrhea, with the severity of disease ranging from asymptomatic to intense and debilitating infection. G. duodenalis is known to consist of eight genetically distinct assemblages, named from A to H. No data available on the genotypes and genetic diversity of G. duodenalis circulating in Qatar.

Methods

We genotyped 54 human Giardia isolates, collected from asymptomatic immigrants in Qatar, using a multilocus genotyping (MLGs) tool. We also investigated relationships between the subjects’ genotypes and their demographic data.

Results

Genomic DNA from 54 isolates were tested by PCR and sequence analysis at three loci: glutamate dehydrogenase (gdh), β-giardin (bg) and triose phosphate (tpi)). Assemblage A was identified in nine (16.67%), assemblage B in thirty (55.55%), and a mixture of assemblages A+B in fifteen (27.78%) isolates. All assemblage A isolates, genotyped in different loci, were assigned to sub-assemblage AII, and six of them had MLGs AII-1 while one new MLG was identified in two isolates. Sequences of assemblage B isolates have high level of genetic diversity and high presence of heterogeneous peaks, especially within the gdh gene. No significant associations between genotypes and the immigrants’ demographic data were found due to the extensive number of new variants.

Conclusions

MLGs was used herein to genotype 54 immigrant Giardia isolates. The high level of genetic variability found in our isolates hampered MLGs determination, more investigations are now required to consolidate our findings, and to enable a comprehensive understanding of the diversity within G. duodenalis assemblage B isolates.

Quality and readability of web-based Arabic health information on COVID-19: an infodemiological study

BACKGROUND

This study sought to assess the quality and readability of web-based Arabic health information on COVID-19.

METHODS

Three search engines were searched on 13 April 2020 for specific Arabic terms on COVID-19. The first 100 consecutive websites from each engine were analyzed for eligibility, which resulted in a sample of 36 websites. These websites were subjected to quality assessments using the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) benchmarks tool, the DISCERN tool, and Health on the Net Foundation Code of Conduct (HONcode) certification. The readability of the websites was assessed using an online readability calculator.

RESULTS

Among the 36 eligible websites, only one (2.7%) was HONcode certified. No website attained a high score based on the criteria of the DISCERN tool; the mean score of all websites was 31.5 ± 12.55. As regards the JAMA benchmarks results, a mean score of 2.08 ± 1.05 was achieved by the websites; however, only four (11.1%) met all the JAMA criteria. The average grade levels for readability were 7.2 ± 7.5, 3.3 ± 0.6 and 93.5 ± 19.4 for the Flesch Kincaid Grade Level, Simple Measure of Gobbledygook, and Flesch Reading Ease scales, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Almost all of the most easily accessible web-based Arabic health information on COVID-19 does not meet recognized quality standards regardless of the level of readability and ability to be understood by the general population of Arabic speakers.

Increased prevalence of pfdhfr and pfdhps mutations associated with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance in Plasmodium falciparum isolates from Jazan Region, Southwestern Saudi Arabia: important implications for malaria treatment policy

Background

Despite significant progress in eliminating malaria from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the disease is still endemic in the southwestern region of the country. Artesunate plus sulfadoxine–pyrimethamine (AS + SP) has been used in Saudi Arabia since 2007 as a first-line treatment for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of mutations associated with resistance to artemisinin and sulfadoxine–pyrimethamine (SP) resistance in P. falciparum parasites circulating in Jazan region, southwestern Saudi Arabia.

Methods

A total of 151 P. falciparum isolates were collected between April 2018 and March 2019 from 12 of the governorates in Jazan region. Genomic DNA was extracted from dried blood spots and amplified using nested PCR. Polymorphisms in the propeller domain of the P. falciparum k13 (pfkelch13) gene and point mutations in the P. falciparum dihydrofolate reductase (pfdhfr) and dihydropteroate synthase (pfdhps) genes were identified by sequencing.

Results

No mutations in the pfkelch13 propeller domain were found in any of the 151 isolates. However, point mutations in the pfdhfr and pfdhps genes were detected in 90.7% (137/151) of the isolates. The pfdhfr double mutations N51I + S108N (i.e. ACICNI haplotype) and triple mutations N51I + C59R + S108N (i.e. ACIRNI haplotype) were detected in 47% and 37.8% of the isolates, respectively. Moreover, the pfdhps single mutation at codon A437G and double mutations A437G + K540E (i.e. SGEAAI haplotype) were observed in 4.6% and 51.7% of the isolates, respectively. Interestingly, 23.8%, 25.1 and 12.6% of the isolates had quintuple, quadruple and triple mutated combined pfdhfr–pfdhps genotypes, respectively. Furthermore, significant associations were found between the prevalence of mutant haplotypes and the age, gender and nationality of the patients (P < 0.05).

Conclusion

This study revealed a high prevalence of point mutations in the pfdhfr and pfdhps genes of P. falciparum isolates from Jazan region, with quintuple and quadruple mutant pfdhfr–pfdhps genotypes reported for the first time in Saudi Arabia and the Arabian Peninsula. Despite the absence of the pfkelch13 mutation in the isolates examined, the pfdhfr and pfdhps mutations undermine the efficacy of SP partner drug, thereby threatening the main falciparum malaria treatment policy in Saudi Arabia, i.e. the use of AS + SP. Therefore, the continuous molecular and in-vivo monitoring of ACT efficacy in Jazan region is highly recommended.

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target-1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023-we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023.

FINDINGS

Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2-47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7-61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9-3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010-2019 relative to 1990-2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6-421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0-3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5-1040·3]) residing in south Asia.

INTERPRETATION

The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people-the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close-or how far-all populations are in benefiting from UHC.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.

METHODS

8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric.

FINDINGS

The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66-2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17-2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5-137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0-146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2-144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4-27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8-67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8-74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5-51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7-59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1-10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3-6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0-6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5-8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1-60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8-66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The burden and epidemiology of polyparasitism among rural communities in Kano State, Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Parasitic infections constitute a major public health problem worldwide, particularly among underprivileged communities in developing countries including Nigeria. The present study aimed to determine the epidemiology of polyparasitism (multiple parasitic infections) among rural communities in Kano State, North Central Nigeria.

METHODS

A total of 551 individuals were screened for the presence of intestinal, urogenital and blood parasites by using different diagnostic techniques. Demographic, socioeconomic, household and behavioural characteristics were collected using a pre-tested questionnaire.

RESULTS

Overall, 84.0% (463/551) of the participants were found to be infected with at least one parasite species, with 51.2% (282/551) of them having polyparasitism. The most prevalent parasites were Plasmodium falciparum (60.6%) followed by Blastocystis sp. (29.2%) and hookworm (15.4%). No significant association was found between malaria and helminth infections (p>0.05). Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that the presence of other family members who had intestinal polyparasitism (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=4.12; 95% CI=2.72, 6.24), walking barefoot outside (AOR=1.70; 95% CI=1.09, 2.63) and being male (AOR=1.74; 95% CI=1.14, 2.66) were the significant risk factors of intestinal polyparasitism among the population studied.

CONCLUSION

Polyparasitism is highly prevalent among rural communities in Kano State. Therefore, effective, sustainable and integrated control measures should be identified and implemented to significantly reduce the burden and consequences of these infections in rural Nigeria.

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.

FINDINGS

The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.

INTERPRETATION

By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A holistic approach is needed to control the perpetual burden of soil-transmitted helminth infections among indigenous schoolchildren in Malaysia

A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 1,142 Orang Ali schoolchildren in six states of Peninsular Malaysia to investigate the current prevalence and risk factors of STH infections. Faecal samples were examined using direct smear, formalin-ether sedimentation, Kato-Katz, and Harada-Mori methods. A pre-tested questionnaire was used to collect information on the demographic, socioeconomic, personal hygiene, and health status of the participants. Overall, 70.1% (95% CI = 67.4, 72.7) of the participants were infected with at least one of the STH species. The prevalence of Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, and hookworm infections was 63.1%, 61.8% and 11.5%, respectively. Moderate-to-heavy STH infections accounted for 61.3% of the total infections. Univariate and logistic regression analyses revealed different sets of risk factors, with age (> 10 years) being the significant risk factor of all three STH species. Moreover, other species-specific risk factors were identified including being a member of the Senoi tribe, family size (≥ 7 members), school size (150-250 pupils), maternal unemployment, unimproved source of drinking water, lacking improved toilet in the house, inadequate WASH facilities at school, not washing hands before eating, and not washing fruits before eating; presence of domestic animals, and not wearing shoes when outside. The high prevalence of STH infections found in the study population exceeds the WHO policy intervention threshold (20% prevalence). Thus, an innovative holistic approach should be adopted to control STH infections among these children as part of the efforts to improve the quality of life of the entire Orang Asli population. .

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Subtype distribution of Blastocystis isolated from humans and associated animals in an indigenous community with poor hygiene in Peninsular Malaysia

Blastocystis is one of the most common parasites inhabiting the intestinal tract of human and animals. Currently, human Blastocystis isolates are classified into nine subtypes (STs) based on the phylogeny of their small subunit ribosomal RNA (SSU rRNA) gene. Although its pathogenicity remains controversial, the possibility of zoonotic transmission was recognized since eight of the nine STs (except for ST9) have been reported in both humans and animals. A cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the prevalence and subtype distribution of Blastocystis isolated from humans and associated animals in an indigenous community with poor hygiene in Malaysia, where the risk of parasitic infection is high. A total of 275 stool samples were collected, subjected to DNA extraction and amplified by PCR assay. The Blastocystis-positive amplicons were then purified and sequenced. Phylogenetic tree of positive isolates, reference strains and outgroup were constructed using maximum likelihood method based on Hasegawa-KishinoYano+G+I model. The prevalence of Blastocystis infection among humans and domestic animals by PCR assay were 18.5% (45/243) and 6.3% (2/32), respectively. Through molecular phylogeny, 47 isolates were separated into five clusters containing isolates from both hosts. Among human isolates, ST3 (53.3%) was the predominant subtype, followed by ST1 (31.1%) and ST2 (15.6%). Chicken and cattle had lower proportions of ST6 (50%) and ST10 (50%), that were barely seen in humans. The distinct distributions of the most important STs among the host animals as well as humans examined demonstrate that there is various host-specific subtypes in the lifecycle of Blastocystis.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.

METHODS

We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.

INTERPRETATION

By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Yemen in a Time of Cholera: Current Situation and Challenges

Since early 2015, Yemen has been in the throes of a grueling civil war, which has devastated the health system and public services, and created one of the world's worst humanitarian disasters. The country is currently facing a cholera epidemic the world's largest on record, surpassing one million (1,061,548) suspected cases, with 2,373 related deaths since October 2016. Cases were first confirmed in Sana'a city and then spread to almost all governorates except Socotra Island. Continued efforts are being made by the World Health Organization and international partners to contain the epidemic through improving water, sanitation and hygiene, setting up diarrhea treatment centers, and improving the population's awareness about the disease. The provision of clean water and adequate sanitation is imperative as an effective long-term solution to prevent the further spread of this epidemic. Cholera vaccination campaigns should also be conducted as a preventive measure.

Prevalence and risk factors of Blastocystis infection among underprivileged communities in rural Malaysia

OBJECTIVES

To determine the prevalence and risk factors of Blastocystis among underprivileged communities living in rural Malaysia.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted among 253 participants aged between 1 and 85 years. Stool samples were examined using Wheatley's trichrome stain after in-vitro cultivation in Jones' medium to detect the presence of Blastocystis. Information pertaining to the demography, socioeconomic and environment were collected using pre-validated questionnaires.

RESULTS

The total prevalence of Blastocystis infection was 40.7%. The multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that age ≥15 years (OR = 2.72; 95% CI = 1.47-5.04) and presence of infected family members (OR = 8.56; 95% CI = 4.47-16.38) were the significant risk factors associated with blastocystosis in these communities.

CONCLUSIONS

Blastocystosis is revealed through this study to be still prevalent among Orang Asli communities in rural Malaysia. The two main approaches that should be implemented by the public health authority in battling this infection would be the screening of other family members and giving treatment to the infected individuals. Moreover, it is imperative for health education on good personal and food hygiene practices are provided in order to reduce the morbidity and transmission of Blastocystis infection among the Orang Asli in their communities meaningfully.

First molecular epidemiology of Entamoeba histolytica, E. dispar and E. moshkovskii infections in Yemen: different species-specific associated risk factors

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the molecular epidemiology of Entamoeba histolytica, E. dispar and E. moshkovskii infections among rural communities in Yemen.

METHODS

In a community-based study, faecal samples were collected from 605 participants and examined by wet mount, formalin-ether sedimentation, trichrome staining and nested multiplex PCR techniques. Demographic, socio-economic and environmental information was collected using a pre-tested questionnaire.

RESULTS

Overall, 324 (53.6%) of the samples were positive for Entamoeba cysts and/or trophozoites by microscopic examination. Molecular analysis revealed that 20.2%, 15.7% and 18.2% of the samples were positive for E. histolytica, E. dispar and E. moshkovskii, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed different sets of species-specific risk factors among these communities. Educational level was identified as the significant risk factor for E. histolytica; age and gender were the significant risk factors for E. moshkovskii; and sources of drinking water and consumption of unwashed vegetables were the significant risk factors for E. dispar. Moreover, living in coastal/foothill areas and presence of other infected family members were risk factors for both E. histolytica and E. moshkovskii infections.

CONCLUSION

The study reveals that Entamoeba spp. infection is highly prevalent among rural communities in Yemen, with E. histolytica, E. dispar and E. moshkovskii differentiated for the first time. Identifying and treating infected family members, providing health education pertinent to good personal and food hygiene practices and providing clean drinking water should be considered in developing a strategy to control intestinal parasitic infections in these communities, particularly in the coastal/foothill areas of the country.

Seroprevalence of Sparganosis in Rural Communities of Northern Tanzania

In this study, the seroprevalence of sparganosis and its relationship with sociodemographic factors in northern Tanzania have been assessed. A total of 216 serum samples from two rural districts, Monduli and Babati, were tested for sparganosis using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The seroprevalence of anti-sparganum IgG antibodies was 62.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 56.1–68.9) in all age groups. There were significant associations between district (relative risk [RR] = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.42–2.69), education (RR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.15–1.70), and pet ownership with seropositivity (RR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.02–2.16) based on univariate analysis. However, only the district was significantly associated with seropositivity (odds ratio = 4.20, 95% CI = 1.89–9.32) in binary logistic regression analysis. Providing health education to people residing in sparganosis-endemic areas is likely to improve the efficacy of preventative measures and reduce human disease burden.

A tale of two communities: intestinal polyparasitism among Orang Asli and Malay communities in rural Terengganu, Malaysia

Background

Intestinal parasitic infections (IPIs) are still major health problems in many developing countries including Malaysia, particularly in the poor and socioeconomically deprived rural and remote communities in Peninsular Malaysia. This study was conducted to determine the prevalence of IPIs and to identify the key factors associated with intestinal polyparasitism as well as to evaluate the knowledge, attitude and practices (KAP) on IPIs among rural Orang Asli and Malay communities in Terengganu, Malaysia.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted among 340 participants (165 Orang Asli and 175 Malay) aged ≤ 15 years from the Hulu Terengganu and Kemaman districts of Terengganu. Faecal samples were examined for the presence of intestinal parasites by using direct smear, formalin-ether sedimentation, trichrome stain, modified Ziehl Neelsen stain, in vitro cultivation in Jones’ medium, Kato Katz and Harada Mori techniques. Demographic, socioeconomic, environmental and behavioural information of the participants and their KAP for IPIs were collected by using a pre-tested questionnaire.

Results

Overall, 149 (90.3 %) Orang Asli and 43 (24.6 %) Malay children were infected by at least one parasite species. The overall prevalences of intestinal polyparasitism among the Orang Asli and Malay were 68.5 % (113/165) and 14.3 % (25/175), respectively. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that using unsafe water supply as a source for drinking water, the presence of domestic animals, not wearing shoes when outside, not washing vegetables before consumption, not washing hands after playing with soil, indiscriminate defecation and the low level of mother’s education were the key risk factors for intestinal polyparasitism among the Orang Asli, while working mothers and the presence of domestic animals were the risk factors among the Malay children. Almost all the Malays were well aware about the IPIs while Orang Asli respondents had a poor level of related awareness.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that IPIs are highly prevalent in rural Terengganu, Malaysia. Community awareness about IPIs was found to be imperative in protecting Malay children from these infections. An integrated control programme for the prevention and control of IPIs is highly recommended for these communities, with a special emphasis on the Orang Asli population.

Different patterns of pfcrt and pfmdr1 polymorphism in Plasmodium falciparum isolates from Tehama region, Yemen

Introduction. Despite the efforts of the malaria control programme, malaria morbidity is still a common health problem in Yemen, with 60% of the population at risk. Plasmodium falciparum is responsible for 99% of malaria cases. The emergence in Yemen of parasite resistance to chloroquine (CQ) prompted the adoption of artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) in 2009, which involves the use of artesunate plus sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (AS + SP). However, CQ was retained as the drug of choice for vivax malaria. To assess the impact of the change in the malaria treatment policy five years after its introduction, the present study investigated the mutations in the CQ resistance transporter (pfcrt) and multidrug resistance 1 (pfmdr1) genes.

Method. A molecular investigation of 10 codons of pfcrt (72–76, 220, 271, 326, 356, and 371) and five codons of pfmdr1 (86, 184, 1034, 1042, and 1246) was conducted on P. falciparum isolates from districts with the highest malaria endemicity in the Hodeidah and Al-Mahwit governorates in Tehama region, Yemen. A total of 86 positive cases of falciparum monoinfection were investigated for the presence of mutations related to CQ and other antimalarials using a PCR-RFLP assay.

Results. There was a wide prevalence of pfcrt gene mutations with the pfcrt 76T CQ resistance marker being predominant (97.7%). The prevalence of other pfcrt mutations varied from high (75E: 88%) to moderate (74I: 79.1%, 220S: 69.8%, 271E and 371I: 53.5%) or low (326S: 36%, 72S: 10.5%). Mutated pfcrt 72–76 amino acids haplotypes were highly prevalent (98.8%). Among these, the CVIET classic, old-world African/Southeast Asian haplotype was the most predominant, and was mostly found in the isolates from the Khamis Bani Saad district of Al-Mahwit (93.1%) and the AdDahi district of Hodeidah (88.9%). However, it was only found in 26.3% of the isolates from the Bajil district of Hodeidah. Surprisingly, the SVMNT new-world South American haplotype was exclusively detected in 9.3% of the isolates from the Bajil district of Hodeidah. Mutations at Y184F of pfmdr1 were found in all isolates (100%) from all districts. The mutation for codons 1034C and 86Y were found only in the isolates from the AdDahi and Khamis Bani Saad districts. Overall, the AdDahi and Khamis Bani Saad districts were similar in terms of carrying most of the mutations in the pfcrt and pfmdr1 genes, while there was a lower prevalence of mutation in the isolates from the Bajil district.

Conclusion. The high prevalence of mutations in pfcrt 5 years after the official cessation of CQ use against P. falciparum suggests that there is sustained CQ pressure on P. falciparum isolates in the study area. Moreover, the low prevalence of mutations in the pfmdr1 gene could be a good indicator of the high susceptibility of P. falciparum isolates to antimalarials other than CQ. A new strategy to ensure the complete nationwide withdrawal of CQ from the private drug market is recommended.

Is Nigeria winning the battle against malaria? Prevalence, risk factors and KAP assessment among Hausa communities in Kano State

BACKGROUND

Malaria is one of the most severe global public health problems worldwide, particularly in Africa, where Nigeria has the greatest number of malaria cases. This community-based study was designed to investigate the prevalence and risk factors of malaria and to evaluate the knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding malaria among rural Hausa communities in Kano State, Nigeria.

METHODS

A cross-sectional community-based study was conducted on 551 participants from five local government areas in Kano State. Blood samples were collected and examined for the presence of Plasmodium species by rapid diagnostic test (RDT), Giemsa-stained thin and thick blood films, and PCR. Moreover, demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental information as well as KAP data were collected using a pre-tested questionnaire.

RESULTS

A total of 334 (60.6 %) participants were found positive for Plasmodium falciparum. The prevalence differed significantly by age group (p < 0.01), but not by gender or location. A multivariate analysis showed that malaria was associated significantly with being aged 12 years or older, having a low household family income, not using insecticide treated nets (ITNs), and having no toilets in the house. Overall, 95.6 % of the respondents had prior knowledge about malaria, and 79.7, 87.6 and 95.7 % of them knew about the transmission, symptoms, and prevention of malaria, respectively. The majority (93.4 %) of the respondents considered malaria a serious disease. Although 79.5 % of the respondents had at least one ITN in their household, utilization rate of ITNs was 49.5 %. Significant associations between the respondents' knowledge concerning malaria and their age, gender, education, and household monthly income were reported.

CONCLUSIONS

Malaria is still highly prevalent among rural Hausa communities in Nigeria. Despite high levels of knowledge and attitudes in the study area, significant gaps persist in appropriate preventive practices, particularly the use of ITNs. Innovative and Integrated control measures to reduce the burden of malaria should be identified and implemented in these communities. Community mobilization and health education regarding the importance of using ITNs to prevent malaria and save lives should be considered.

Sustained efficacy of artesunate-sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine against Plasmodium falciparum in Yemen and a renewed call for an adjunct single dose primaquine to clear gametocytes

Background

In Yemen, artesunate plus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (AS + SP) has been used as first-line treatment for uncomplicated falciparum malaria, which accounts for about 99 % of malaria cases. There is evidence that resistance to SP is increasing, with potential negative impact on efficacy, and in particular on curbing transmission. This study aims: (a) to evaluate the therapeutic efficacy of AS + SP treatment for uncomplicated falciparum malaria in Yemen; (b) to investigate the frequency of mutations in Plasmodium falciparum genes associated with resistance to AS (Kelch 13 propeller domain, pfK13) and SP (dihydrofolate reductase, pfdhfr, and dihydropteroate synthase, pfdhps); and (c) to assess the adequacy of this ACT to clear gametocytes.

Methods

A 28-day in vivo evaluation of the clinical and parasitological response to three-day course of AS + SP was carried out in two areas of high endemicity (Hodeidah and Al-Mahwit provinces, Tehama region) in Yemen according to standard WHO protocol 2009. Clinical and parasitological indices were monitored over a 28-day follow-up, and the outcome was PCR-corrected. The frequencies of mutations in the pfdhfr, pfdhps, and pfK13 genes were obtained by sequencing following amplification.

Results

Eighty-six patients completed the study, with a cure rate of 96.5 % (94.2 % PCR-uncorrected). Whereas four (4.7 %) patients still showed parasitaemia on day 2 post-treatment, all were found negative for asexual malaria stages on days 3 and 7. The efficacy of gametocyte clearance was poor (14.5, 42.5 and 86.0 % on days 7, 14 and 28, respectively), with gametocytes persisting throughout the study in some patients. All the isolates sequenced had the pfk13 propeller domain wild-type allele, and mutations associated with SP failure were observed only for pfdhfr with the double mutation (S108N + N51I) found in 65.4 % of the isolates sequenced.

Conclusion

In Yemen, AS + SP therapy remains effective for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria. Mutations were not detected in pfk13 or pfdhps, though double mutations were observed for pfdhfr. The observed persistent gametocytaemia re-enforces calls to add a single dose primaquine to this ACT in order to minimizes the potential for transmission and enhance regional efforts to eliminate malaria.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1344-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

PREVALENCE AND RISK FACTORS FOR ASYMPTOMATIC INTESTINAL MICROSPORIDIOSIS AMONG ABORIGINAL SCHOOL CHILDREN IN PAHANG, MALAYSIA

The epidemiology and environmental factors affecting transmission of human microsporidiosis are poorly understood. We conducted the present study to determine the prevalence and risk factors associated with asymptomatic intestinal microsporidiosis among aboriginal school children in the Kuala Krau District, Pahang State, Malaysia. We collected stool samples from 255 school children and examined the samples using Gram-chromotrope Kinyoun stain. We also collected demographic, socioeconomic, environmental and personal hygiene information using a pre-tested questionnaire. Sixty-nine of the children was positive for microsporidia: 72.5% and 27.5% were low (1+) and moderate (2+) excretions of microsporidia spores, respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed being aged 10 years (p = 0.026), using an unsafe water supply as a source for drinking water (p = 0.044) and having close contact with domestic animals (p = 0.031) were all significantly associated with microsporidial infection among study subjects. Our findings suggest asymptomatic intestinal microsporidiosis is common in the study population, more than previously reported. In the study population, control measures need to be implemented, such as good personal hygiene, proper sanitation and safe drinking water supply.

First Molecular Characterization of Leishmania Species Causing Visceral Leishmaniasis among Children in Yemen

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a debilitating, often fatal disease caused by Leishmania donovani complex; however, it is a neglected tropical disease. L. donovani complex comprises two closely related species, L. donovani that is mostly anthroponotic and L. infantum that is zoonotic. Differentiation between these two species is critical due to the differences in their epidemiology and pathology. However, they cannot be differentiated morphologically, and their speciation using isoenzyme-based methods poses a difficult task and may be unreliable. Molecular characterization is now the most reliable method to differentiate between them and to determine their phylogenetic relationships. The present study aims to characterize Leishmania species isolated from bone marrows of Yemeni pediatric patients using sequence analysis of the ribosomal internal transcribed spacer-1 (ITS1) gene. Out of 41 isolates from Giemsa-stained bone marrow smears, 25 isolates were successfully amplified by nested polymerase chain reaction and sequenced in both directions. Phylogenetic analysis using neighbor joining method placed all study isolates in one cluster with L. donovani complex (99% bootstrap). The analysis of ITS1 for microsatellite repeat numbers identified L. infantum in 11 isolates and L. donovani in 14 isolates. These data suggest the possibility of both anthroponotic and zoonotic transmission of VL-causing Leishmania species in Yemen. Exploring the possible animal reservoir hosts is therefore needed for effective control to be achieved.

The Menace of Schistosomiasis in Nigeria: Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices Regarding Schistosomiasis among Rural Communities in Kano State

Background

Schistosomiasis is one of the most common neglected tropical diseases, especially in the developing countries in Africa, Asia and South America, with Nigeria having the greatest number of cases of schistosomiasis worldwide. This community-based study aims to evaluate the knowledge, attitude and practices (KAP) regarding schistosomiasis among rural Hausa communities in Kano State, Nigeria.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was carried out among 551 participants from Hausa communities in five local government areas in Kano State, North Central Nigeria. Demographic, socioeconomic and environmental information as well as KAP data were collected using a pre-tested questionnaire. Moreover, faecal and urine samples were collected and examined for the presence of Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium eggs respectively.

Results

The overall prevalence of schistosomiasis was 17.8%, with 8.9% and 8.3% infected with S. mansoni and S. haematobium respectively, and 0.5% had co-infection of both species. Moreover, 74.5% of the participants had prior knowledge about schistosomiasis with 67.0% of them how it is transmitted and 63.8% having no idea about the preventive measures. Three-quarters of the respondents considered schistosomiasis a serious disease while their practices to prevent infections were still inadequate, with only 34.7% of them seeking treatment from clinics/hospitals. Significant associations between the KAP and age, gender, education and employment status were reported. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that age, gender, history of infection and educational level of the respondents were the most important factors significantly associated with the KAP on schistosomiasis among this population.

Conclusions

Schistosomiasis is still prevalent among Hausa communities in Nigeria and participants’ knowledge about the disease was poor. Mass drug administration, community mobilization and health education regarding the cause, transmission and prevention of schistosomiasis and education about good personal and sanitary hygiene practices should be considered in order to significantly reduce the prevalence and morbidity of infection within these communities.

New insights into the genetic diversity of Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobiumin Yemen

Background

Human schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease of great importance that remains highly prevalent in Yemen, especially amongst rural communities. In order to investigate the genetic diversity of human Schistosoma species, a DNA barcoding study was conducted on S. mansoni and S. haematobium in Yemen.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted to collect urine and faecal samples from 400 children from five provinces in Yemen. The samples were examined for the presence of Schistosoma eggs. A partial fragment of the schistosome cox1 mitochondrial gene was analysed from each individual sample to evaluate the genetic diversity of the S. mansoni and S. haematobium infections. The data was also analysed together with previous published cox1 data for S. mansoni and S. haematobium from Africa and the Indian Ocean Islands.

Results

Overall, 31.8 % of participants were found to be excreting schistosome eggs in either the urine or faeces (8.0 % S. mansoni and 22.5 % S. haematobium). Nineteen unique haplotypes of S. mansoni were detected and split into four lineages. Furthermore, nine unique haplotypes of S. haematobium were identified that could be split into two distinct groups.

Conclusion

This study provides novel and interesting insights into the population diversity and structure of S. mansoni and S. haematobium in Yemen. The data adds to our understanding of the evolutionary history and phylogeography of these devastating parasites whilst the genetic information could support the control and monitoring of urogenital and intestinal schistosomiasis in these endemic areas.

Population expansion and gene flow in Giardia duodenalis as revealed by triosephosphate isomerase gene

Background

Giardia duodenalis is a protozoan parasite that can cause significant diarrhoeal diseases. Knowledge of population genetics is a prerequisite for ascertaining the invasion patterns of this parasite. In order to infer evolutionary patterns that could not be uncovered based on the morphological features, a population genetic study with the incorporation of molecular marker was carried out to access the genetic structure of G. duodenalis isolated from the Malaysian population and the global populations.

Methods

A total of 154 samples positive for Giardia, collected from different Malaysian communities, were subjected to DNA amplification and sequencing targeting three genetic loci (tpi, gdh, and bg). The tpi sequences together with sequences from the global data obtained from the NCBI GenBank were used for genetic diversity analyses including identification of haplotypes, haplotype diversity, nucleotide diversity, Tajima’s D and Fu and Li’s D, gene flow and genetic differentiation tests.

Results

Analysis of the Malaysian and global data showed that assemblages A, B, and E (the most prevalent assemblages in humans and animals), have different levels of genetic diversity. Assemblage B had the highest level of both haplotype diversity and nucleotide diversity, followed by assemblage E. The analysis also revealed population expansion and high gene flow in all assemblages. No clear genetic structure was observed across five continents (i.e., the Americas, Europe, Asia, Australia and Africa). However, median joining network of assemblage B formed a cluster that was exclusively isolated from Asia while other haplotypes were well dispersed across the continents.

Conclusions

This study provides new insight into the genetic diversity of Giardia assemblages in different geographical regions. The significant result shown by gene flow and genetic differentiation analyses as well as test of neutrality among the populations should have brought a clearer picture to the dynamics and distribution of Giardia infection.

HUMAN GIARDIASIS IN MALAYSIA: CORRELATION BETWEEN THE PRESENCE OF CLINICAL MANIFESTATION AND GIARDIA INTESTINALIS ASSEMBLAGE

Clinical manifestations of giardiasis vary from asymptomatic infection to chronic diarrhea. A total of 611 stool samples from Aboriginal participants residing in Jelebu, Gerik and Temerloh States, Malaysia, ages 2 to 74 years were screened for Giardia intestinalis using microscopic examination and sequence analysis of a fragment of nested-PCR amplified triosephosphate isomerase (tpi) gene. Demographic data was collected through a structured questionnaire. tpi was successfully amplified from 98/110 samples microscopically positive for G. intestinalis, with 62 and 36 belonging to assemblage A and B, respectively. There is a significant correlation between assemblage A and symptomatic infection only in participants of < 15 years of age. In the other age group, host factors may have more effects on the presence of clinical signs and symptoms than G. intestinalis assemblage types.

PREVALENCE OF DIENTAMOEBA FRAGILIS AMONG AN ORANG ASLI POPULATION IN RURAL MALAYSIA

Dientamoeba fragilis is a trichomonad parasite that can infect the gastrointestinal tract of humans causing gastrointestinal disease. Little is known about its epidemiology. We evaluated the prevalence of D. fragilis by conducting a cross sectional study of an Orang Asli population in rural Malaysia. We examined stool samples from 150 participants for D. fragilis using Wheatley's trichrome stain and collected demographic data from each participant using a structured questionnaire. Five participants (3.3%) had D. fragilis in their stool; four of these were aged < 15 years; 3 were male and 2 were female. All participants with positive stool sample for D. fragilis were symptomatic; 3 had diarrhea and 2 had other gastrointestinal symptoms. D. fragilis is present in the study population. Further studies are needed to determine the virulence, pathogenicity and mode of transmission of D. fragilis in the study population.

Knowledge, attitude, and practices towards schistosomiasis among rural population in Yemen

Background

Schistosomiasis is highly prevalent in Yemen, with an estimated 3 million cases, particularly among rural communities. This community-based study aims to evaluate the knowledge, attitude and practices (KAP) on schistosomiasis among rural communities in Yemen.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was carried out among 250 households from ten rural districts in Yemen. Overall, 400 children were screened for urogenital and intestinal schistosomiasis. Moreover, parents were interviewed using a pre-tested questionnaire to collect information about the demographic and socioeconomic information and their KAP concerning schistosomiasis.

Results

A total of 127 (31.8 %) children were found to be excreting schistosome eggs in either their urine or faeces (22.5 % S. haematobium and 8.0 % S. mansoni). Although 92.4 % of the respondents had heard about schistosomiasis, 49.8 %, 68.0 % and 47.2 % had knowledge concerning the transmission, signs and symptoms, and prevention, respectively. In addition, 77.1 % considered schistosomiasis as harmful while 48.5 % believed that schistosomiasis could be prevented, albeit their practices to prevent infections were still inadequate. Significant associations between the KAP and age, education, employment status and household monthly income were reported (P < 0.05). Moreover, a significantly higher level of knowledge was reported among the respondents who had infected children compared to those with no infected family members (P < 0.05). Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that the level of education and the history of schistosomiasis were the most important factors associated with the KAP concerning schistosomiasis among this population.

Conclusion

This study reveals that knowledge about the cause, transmission, symptoms and prevention of schistosomiasis among the rural population in Yemen was inadequate, and that this could be a challenging obstacle to the elimination of schistosomiasis in these communities. Besides the current mass drug administration, school and community-based health education regarding schistosomiasis is imperative among these communities to significantly reduce the transmission and morbidity of schistosomiasis.