Warning labels for sugar-sweetened beverages and fruit juice: evaluation of 27 different labels on health effects, sugar content, energy and exercise equivalency

OBJECTIVES

Front-of-pack warning labels may reduce consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages, potentially mitigating negative health outcomes. Comparisons between different warning label types to inform future research and policy directions are lacking. This study compared 27 warning labels across six message types for their potential to reduce sugar-sweetened beverage consumption.

DESIGN AND METHODS

A national sample of regular soda (n = 2578) and juice (n = 1048) consumers aged 14-60 years participated in an online survey. Participants evaluated randomly allocated labels; one from each of six warning label sets (health-graphic, sugar-pictogram, sugar-text, exercise equivalents, health-text, energy information) on four measures of perceived effectiveness (PE: overall effectiveness, discourage from drinking, emotional response, persuasive potential). Participants could also provide open comments. A general linear model compared differences in mean scores across label sets for each measure of PE.

RESULTS

PE ratings differed significantly between label sets. Labels clearly quantifying sugar content (sugar-teaspoons) received consistently high PE ratings, whereas 'high in sugar' labels did not. Health-graphic labels were rated highly across all PE measures except persuasive potential. Exercise labels only rated highly on persuasive potential. Health-text results were mixed, and energy labels were consistently low.

CONCLUSIONS

Simple, factual labels were easily interpreted and perceived as most effective. Labels quantifying sugar content were consistently high performers and should be advanced into policy to help decrease overconsumption of sugar-sweetened beverages.

Prognostic Significance of the Microenvironment in Human Papillomavirus Oropharyngeal Carcinoma: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

The immune microenvironment of HPV-associated (HPV+) oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (OPSCCs) (HPV+OPSCCs) differs from that of HPV-independent oropharyngeal cancers (HPV-independent OPSCCs). The literature on the subject is very abundant, demanding an organized synthesis of this wealth of information to evaluate the hypothesis associating the favorable prognosis of HPV+OPSCC patients with a different immune microenvironment. A systematic review of the literature was conducted regarding the microenvironment of HPV+OPSCCs.

DATA SOURCE

MEDLINE/PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases.

REVIEW METHODS

A literature search was performed following PRISMA guidelines (Moher D. PLoS Med. 2009). The PEO (Population, Exposure, and Outcome) framework is detailed as follows: P: patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas, E: human papillomavirus (HPV), and O: histological and immunological composition of the tumoral microenvironment (TME). No meta-analysis was performed.

RESULTS

From 1,202 studies that were screened, 58 studies were included (n = 6,474 patients; n = 3,581 (55%) HPV+OPSCCs and n = 2,861(45%) HPV-independent OPSCCs). The presence of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL), CD3+ in 1,733 patients, CD4+ in 520 patients, and CD8+ (cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL)) in 3,104 patients, and high levels of PD-L1 expression in 1,222 patients is strongly correlated with an improved clinical outcome in HPV+OPSCCs.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review provides the most comprehensive information on the immune microenvironment of HPV+OPSCCs to date. Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes and PD-L1 expression are associated with a favorable prognosis. B, CD8+ and resident memory cells densities are higher in HPV+OPSCCs. The importance of myeloid lineages is still a matter of debate and research.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

NA Laryngoscope, 134:1507-1516, 2024.

Modifying platelets at their birth: anti-thrombotic therapy without haemorrhage

Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of death. The current approach to the prevention of arterial thrombosis in cardiovascular disease is dependent on the use of therapies which inhibit the activation of platelets. Predictably these are associated with an increased risk of haemorrhage which causes significant morbidity. The thrombotic potential of an activated platelet is modifiable; being determined before thrombopoiesis. Increased megakaryocyte ploidy is associated with larger and more active platelets carrying an increased risk of thrombosis. The reduction in the ploidy of megakaryocytes is therefore a novel area of therapeutic interest for reducing thrombosis. We propose a new therapeutic approach for the prevention and treatment of thrombosis by targeting the reduction in ploidy of megakaryocytes. We examine the role of a receptor mediated event causing megakaryocytes to increase ploidy, the potential for targeting the molecular mechanisms underpinning megakaryocyte endomitosis and the existence of two separate regulatory pathways to maintain haemostasis by altering the thrombotic potential of platelets as targets for novel therapeutic approaches producing haemostatically competent platelets which are not prothrombotic.

A Novel Method for Assessing Risk-Adjusted Diagnostic Coding Specificity for Depression Using a U.S. Cohort of over One Million Patients

Depression is a prevalent and debilitating mental health condition that poses significant challenges for healthcare providers, researchers, and policymakers. The diagnostic coding specificity of depression is crucial for improving patient care, resource allocation, and health outcomes. We propose a novel approach to assess risk-adjusted coding specificity for individuals diagnosed with depression using a vast cohort of over one million inpatient hospitalizations in the United States. Considering various clinical, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics, we develop a risk-adjusted model that assesses diagnostic coding specificity. Results demonstrate that risk-adjustment is necessary and useful to explain variability in the coding specificity of principal (AUC = 0.76) and secondary (AUC = 0.69) diagnoses. Our approach combines a multivariate logistic regression at the patient hospitalization level to extract risk-adjusted probabilities of specificity with a Poisson Binomial approach at the facility level. This method can be used to identify healthcare facilities that over- and under-specify diagnostic coding when compared to peer-defined standards of practice.

Machine learning-based prediction of hip joint moment in healthy subjects, patients and post-operative subjects

The application of machine learning in the field of motion capture research is growing rapidly. The purpose of the study is to implement a long-short term memory (LSTM) model able to predict sagittal plane hip joint moment (HJM) across three distinct cohorts (healthy controls, patients and post-operative patients) starting from 3D motion capture and force data. Statistical parametric mapping with paired samples t-test was performed to compare machine learning and inverse dynamics HJM predicted values, with the latter used as gold standard. The results demonstrated favorable model performance on each of the three cohorts, showcasing its ability to successfully generalize predictions across diverse cohorts.

Discovery and SAR Study of Boronic Acid-Based Selective PDE3B Inhibitors from a Novel DNA-Encoded Library

Human genetic evidence shows that PDE3B is associated with metabolic and dyslipidemia phenotypes. A number of PDE3 family selective inhibitors have been approved by the FDA for various indications; however, given the undesirable proarrhythmic effects in the heart, selectivity for PDE3B inhibition over closely related family members (such as PDE3A; 48% identity) is a critical consideration for development of PDE3B therapeutics. Selectivity for PDE3B over PDE3A may be achieved in a variety of ways, including properties intrinsic to the compound or tissue-selective targeting. The high (>95%) active site homology between PDE3A and B represents a massive obstacle for obtaining selectivity at the active site; however, utilization of libraries with high molecular diversity in high throughput screens may uncover selective chemical matter. Herein, we employed a DNA-encoded library screen to identify PDE3B-selective inhibitors and identified potent and selective boronic acid compounds bound at the active site.

Assessment of owner perceptions of caregiver burden, veterinarian-client relationship and satisfaction with the provider in canine pruritus: An experimental vignette study

BACKGROUND

Complicated treatments for skin disease are linked to owner-caregiver burden and poorer perception of the veterinarian-client relationship, regardless of disease severity.

HYPOTHESES/OBJECTIVES

Using experimental vignettes, we explored the impact on owner perception of the interaction of treatment complexity and skin disease outcomes. We hypothesised that: (i) vignette conditions involving injection therapy would result in lower burden, better veterinary-client relationship and greater satisfaction relative to multimodal therapy conditions; (ii) the vignette condition of injection therapy with a completely effective outcome would be superior to all other conditions; (iii) ineffective vignette conditions would be inferior to all other conditions; and (iv) the vignette condition injection with a mostly effective outcome would be similar or superior to the multimodal therapy with a completely effective outcome condition.

PARTICIPANTS

Three hundred and nine owners of pruritic dogs recruited from a general veterinary practice, pet-related podcast, or social media dog allergy group.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Participants were presented with six counterbalanced online vignettes representing three levels of treatment effectiveness (Completely Effective, Mostly Effective, Ineffective) and two treatment regimens (Multimodal, Injection). Measurements of participant perceptions of caregiver burden, veterinarian-client relationship and satisfaction were recorded.

RESULTS

Injection with perfect outcome was superior to other conditions (p < 0.001). Conditions with poor effectiveness were inferior (p < 0.001). Comparison of Injection with a mostly effective outcome to Multimodal treatment with perfect outcome yielded small-to-medium effects of preference for the latter in veterinarian-client relationship and satisfaction (p < 0.01); no difference was observed for caregiver burden. When good effectiveness was assured, injection was preferred (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Owners preferred a Completely Effective outcome and were prepared to select the Injection regimen or Multimodal therapy to achieve this; Injection was preferred when effectiveness was assured.

Burden and positive aspects of caregiving: cluster profiles of dementia caregiving experiences

OBJECTIVES

Although caregiver burden is common in the context of dementia caregiving, the caregiving role is linked to beneficial outcomes too. Individuals reporting higher positive aspects of caregiving tend to exhibit lower burden relative to those reporting few. The goal of this retrospective review of outpatient memory clinic medical records was to demonstrate whether and how constructs of burden and positive aspects of caregiving coexist within individual caregivers, and to explore potential contributors to caregiver profiles created based upon these constructs.

METHOD

Cluster analyses were conducted on 1160 caregivers from an initial intake interview meeting criteria on primary measures of Positive Aspects of Caregiving and the Zarit Burden Interview and repeated with 225 caregivers meeting inclusion criteria on all measures. Samples were compared for similarity, and the smaller sample (n = 225) was deemed appropriately representative. Multinomial logistic regressions examined cluster predictors in sample with 225 caregivers.

RESULTS

Results suggested a three-cluster solution: a High Burden group, a High Positive Experiences group, and a Low-Moderate Experiences group showing low burden and moderate positive experiences. Greater behavioral problems predicted belonging to the High Burden cluster. Greater care recipient dependence predicted belonging to the High Positive Experiences cluster while greater independence predicted the Low-Moderate Experiences cluster.

CONCLUSION

Findings suggest that burden and positive aspects of caregiving do not simultaneously present in caregivers at high levels. Supportive caregiver interventions might be tailored to profiles demonstrated here. Future research should investigate other potential contributors to experiences of burden and positive aspects of caregiving.

Is neighborhood deprivation index a risk factor for Staphylococcus aureus infections?

BACKGROUND

We assessed the association between neighborhood area deprivation index (ADI) and community-onset (co) and hospital-onset (ho) Staphylococcus aureus infection.

METHODS

Demographic and clinical characteristics of patients admitted to 5 adult hospitals in the mid-Atlantic between 2016 and 2018 were obtained. The association of ADI with methicillin-resistant (MRSA) and methicillin-sensitive (MSSA) S aureus infections was assessed using logistic regression models adjusting for severity of illness and days of admission.

RESULTS

Overall, increasing ADI was associated with higher odds of co- and ho-MRSA and MSSA infection. In univariate analysis, Black race was associated with 44% greater odds of ho-MRSA infection (odds ratio [OR] 1.44; 95% CI 1.18-1.76) and Asian race (co-MRSA OR 0.355; Confidence Interval (CI) 0.240-0.525; co-MSSA OR 0.718; CI 0.557-0.928) and unknown race (co-MRSA OR 0.470; CI 0.365-0.606; co-MSSA OR 0.699; CI 0.577-0.848) was associated with lower odds of co-MSSA and co-MRSA infections. When both race and ADI were included in the model, Black race was no longer associated with ho-MRSA infections whereas Asian and unknown race remained associated with lower odds of co-MRSA and co-MSSA infection. In the multivariable logistic regression, ADI was consistently associated with increased odds of S aureus infection (co-MRSA OR 1.132; CI 1.064-1.205; co-MSSA OR 1.089; CI 1.030-1.15; ho-MRSA OR 1.29; CI 1.16-1.43: ho-MSSA OR 1.215; CI 1.096-1.346).

CONCLUSIONS

The area deprivation index is associated with community and hospital-onset MRSA and MSSA infections.

Prevalence and severity of molar-incisor hypomineralization, is there an association with socioeconomic status? A cross-sectional study in Chilean schoolchildren

PURPOSE

Data about molar-incisor hypomineralization (MIH) prevalence and its severity remains limited for some Latin American countries. Furthermore, its association with socioeconomic status (SES) is still unclear. Thus, this study aims to determine the prevalence and severity of MIH in Santiago, Chile and explore its association with SES.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study with schoolchildren between 6 and 12 years was conducted. Children were evaluated using the European Academy of Paediatric Dentistry to diagnose MIH, and the Mathu-Muju and Wright criteria to determine its severity.

RESULTS

A total of 1,270 children were included. The MIH prevalence was 12.8% without association with gender (p = 0.609). Prevalence was higher among schoolchildren ages 8 and 9 (p = 0.002), and in lower SES (p = 0.007). MIH mild cases were the most prevalent (63%), and severity was not related to gender (p = 0.656), age (p = 0.060), or SES (p = 0.174).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of MIH in the province of Santiago, Chile is 12.8% and was found to have a higher incidence in 8-9-year-old students and among those categorized by low SES. Furthermore, MIH prevalence was associated with low SES.

IMPLICATIONS

Public health policies to address MIH in Chile should start with schoolchildren aged 8 to 9, and with low SES.

A Novel Approach to Developing Disease and Outcome-Specific Social Risk Indices

INTRODUCTION

A variety of industry composite indices are employed within health research in risk-adjusted outcome measures and to assess health-related social needs. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the relationships among risk adjustment, clinical outcomes, and composite indices of social risk have become relevant topics for research and healthcare operations. Despite the widespread use of these indices, composite indices are often comprised of correlated variables and therefore may be affected by information duplicity of their underlying risk factors.

METHODS

A novel approach is proposed to assign outcome- and disease group-driven weights to social risk variables to form disease and outcome-specific social risk indices and apply the approach to the county-level Centers for Disease Control and Prevention social vulnerability factors for demonstration. The method uses a subset of principal components reweighed through Poisson rate regressions while controlling for county-level patient mix. The analyses use 6,135,302 unique patient encounters from 2021 across seven disease strata.

RESULTS

The reweighed index shows reduced root mean squared error in explaining county-level mortality in five of the seven disease strata and equivalent performance in the remaining strata compared with the reduced root mean squared error using the current Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Social Vulnerability Index as a benchmark.

CONCLUSIONS

A robust method is provided, designed to overcome challenges with current social risk indices, by accounting for redundancy and assigning more meaningful disease and outcome-specific variable weights.

Social and psychological adversity are associated with distinct mother and infant gut microbiome variations

Health disparities are driven by underlying social disadvantage and psychosocial stressors. However, how social disadvantage and psychosocial stressors lead to adverse health outcomes is unclear, particularly when exposure begins prenatally. Variations in the gut microbiome and circulating proinflammatory cytokines offer potential mechanistic pathways. Here, we interrogate the gut microbiome of mother-child dyads to compare high-versus-low prenatal social disadvantage, psychosocial stressors and maternal circulating cytokine cohorts (prospective case-control study design using gut microbiomes from 121 dyads profiled with 16 S rRNA sequencing and 89 dyads with shotgun metagenomic sequencing). Gut microbiome characteristics significantly predictive of social disadvantage and psychosocial stressors in the mothers and children indicate that different discriminatory taxa and related pathways are involved, including many species of Bifidobacterium and related pathways across several comparisons. The lowest inter-individual gut microbiome similarity was observed among high-social disadvantage/high-psychosocial stressors mothers, suggesting distinct environmental exposures driving a diverging gut microbiome assembly compared to low-social disadvantage/low-psychosocial stressors controls (P = 3.5 × 10-5 for social disadvantage, P = 2.7 × 10-15 for psychosocial stressors). Children's gut metagenome profiles at 4 months also significantly predicted high/low maternal prenatal IL-6 (P = 0.029), with many bacterial species overlapping those identified by social disadvantage and psychosocial stressors. These differences, based on maternal social and psychological status during a critical developmental window early in life, offer potentially modifiable targets to mitigate health inequities.

The proteome of extracellular vesicles of the lung fluke Paragonimus kellicotti produced in vitro and in the lung cyst

Paragonimiasis is a zoonotic, food-borne trematode infection that affects 21 million people globally. Trematodes interact with their hosts via extracellular vesicles (EV) that carry protein and RNA cargo. We analyzed EV in excretory-secretory products (ESP) released by Paragonimus kellicotti adult worms cultured in vitro (EV ESP) and EV isolated from lung cyst fluid (EV CFP) recovered from infected gerbils. The majority of EV were approximately 30-50 nm in diameter. We identified 548 P. kellicotti-derived proteins in EV ESP by mass spectrometry and 8 proteins in EV CFP of which 7 were also present in EV ESP. No parasite-derived proteins were reliably detected in EV isolated from plasma samples. A cysteine protease (MK050848, CP-6) was the most abundant protein found in EV CFP in all technical and biological replicates. Immunolocalization of CP-6 showed strong labeling in the tegument of P. kellicotti and in the adjacent cyst and lung tissue that contained worm eggs. It is likely that CP-6 present in EV is involved in parasite-host interactions. These results provide new insights into interactions between Paragonimus and their mammalian hosts, and they provide potential clues for development of novel diagnostic tools and treatments.

Risk Adjustment of ICD-10-CM Coded Potential Inpatient Complications Using Administrative Data

OBJECTIVE

To risk-adjust the Potential Inpatient Complication (PIC) measure set and propose a method to identify large deviations between observed and expected PIC counts.

DATA SOURCES

Acute inpatient stays from the Premier Healthcare Database from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2021.

STUDY DESIGN

In 2014, the PIC list was developed to identify a broader set of potential complications that can occur as a result of care decisions. Risk adjustment for 111 PIC measures is performed across 3 age-based strata. Using patient-level risk factors and PIC occurrences, PIC-specific probabilities of occurrence are estimated through multivariate logistic regression models. Poisson Binomial cumulative mass function estimates identify deviations between observed and expected PIC counts across levels of patient-visit aggregation. Area under the curve (AUC) estimates are used to demonstrate PIC predictive performance in an 80:20 derivation-validation split framework.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

We used N=3,363,149 administrative hospitalizations between 2019 and 2021 from the Premier Healthcare Database.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

PIC-specific model predictive performance was strong across PICs and age strata. Average area under the curve estimates across PICs were 0.95 (95% CI: 0.93-0.96), 0.91 (95% CI: 0.90-0.93), and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.89-0.91) for the neonate and infant, pediatric, and adult strata, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed method provides a consistent quality metric that adjusts for the population's case mix. Age-specific risk stratification further addresses currently ignored heterogeneity in PIC prevalence across age groups. Finally, the proposed aggregation method identifies large PIC-specific deviations between observed and expected counts, flagging areas with a potential need for quality improvements.

Obesity in children with low back pain: implications with imaging phenotypes and opioid use

BACKGROUND CONTEXT

Low back pain (LBP) is common in children and adolescents, carrying substantial risk for recurrence and continuation into adulthood. Studies have linked obesity to the development of pediatric LBP; however, its association with lumbar spine degeneration, alignment parameters, and opioid use remains debated.

PURPOSE

Considering the increasing prevalence of pediatric obesity and LBP and the inherent issues with opioid use, this study aimed to assess the association of obesity with lumbar spine degeneration, spinopelvic alignment, and opioid therapy among pediatric patients.

STUDY DESIGN/SETTING

A retrospective study of pediatric patients presenting to a single institute with LBP and no history of spine deformity, tumor, or infection was performed.

PATIENT SAMPLE

A totasl of 194 patients (mean age: 16.7±2.3 years, 45.3% male) were included, of which 30 (15.5%) were obese.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence of imaging phenotypes and opioid use among obese to nonobese pediatric LBP patients. Magnetic resonance and plain radiographic imaging were evaluated for degenerative phenotypes (disc bulging, disc herniation, disc degeneration [DD], high-intensity zones [HIZ], disc narrowing, Schmorl's nodes, endplate phenotypes, Modic changes, spondylolisthesis, and osteophytes). Lumbopelvic parameters including lumbar lordosis, pelvic tilt, sacral slope, pelvic incidence and pelvic incidence-lumbar lordosis (PI-LL) mismatch were also examined.

METHODS

Demographic and clinical information was recorded, including use of opioids. The associations between obesity and lumbar phenotypes or opiod use were assessed by multiple regression models.

RESULTS

Based on multivariate analysis, obesity was significantly associated with the presence of HIZ (adjusted OR: 5.36, 95% CI: 1.30 to 22.09). Further analysis demonstrated obesity (adjusted OR: 3.92, 95% CI: 1.49 to 10.34) and disc herniation (OR: 4.10, 95% CI: 1.50 to 11.26) were associated with opioid use, independent of duration of symptoms, other potential demographic determinants, and spinopelvic alignment.

CONCLUSIONS

In pediatric patients, obesity was found to be significantly associated with HIZs of the lumbar spine, while disc herniation and obesity were associated with opioid use. Spinopelvic alignment parameters did not mitigate any outcome. This study underscores that pediatric obesity increases the risk of developing specific degenerative spine changes and pain severity that may necessitate opioid use, emphasizing the importance of maintaining healthy body weight in promoting lumbar spine health in the young.

Novel Evoked Synaptic Activity Potentials (ESAPs) Elicited by Spinal Cord Stimulation

Spinal cord stimulation (SCS) evokes fast epidural evoked compound action potential (ECAP) that represent activity of dorsal column axons, but not necessarily a spinal circuit response. Using a multimodal approach, we identified and characterized a delayed and slower potential evoked by SCS that reflects synaptic activity within the spinal cord. Anesthetized female Sprague Dawley rats were implanted with an epidural SCS lead, epidural motor cortex stimulation electrodes, an epidural spinal cord recording lead, an intraspinal penetrating recording electrode array, and intramuscular electromyography (EMG) electrodes in the hindlimb and trunk. We stimulated the motor cortex or the epidural spinal cord and recorded epidural, intraspinal, and EMG responses. SCS pulses produced characteristic propagating ECAPs (composed of P1, N1, and P2 waves with latencies <2 ms) and an additional wave ("S1") starting after the N2. We verified the S1-wave was not a stimulation artifact and was not a reflection of hindlimb/trunk EMG. The S1-wave has a distinct stimulation-intensity dose response and spatial profile compared with ECAPs. 6-Cyano-7-nitroquinoxaline-2,3-dione (CNQX; a selective competitive antagonist of AMPA receptors (AMPARs)] significantly diminished the S1-wave, but not ECAPs. Furthermore, cortical stimulation, which did not evoke ECAPs, produced epidurally detectable and CNQX-sensitive responses at the same spinal sites, confirming epidural recording of an evoked synaptic response. Finally, applying 50-Hz SCS resulted in dampening of S1-wave but not ECAPs. Therefore, we hypothesize that the S1-wave is synaptic in origin, and we term the S1-wave type responses: evoked synaptic activity potentials (ESAPs). The identification and characterization of epidurally recorded ESAPs from the dorsal horn may elucidate SCS mechanisms.

A protracted outbreak of difficult-to-treat resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa in a haematology unit: a matched case-control study demonstrating increased risk with use of fluoroquinolone

BACKGROUND

Between September 2016 and November 2020, 17 cases of difficult-to-treat resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa (DTR-PA) were reported in haematology patients at a tertiary referral hospital in the North of England.

AIM

A retrospective case-control study was conducted to investigate the association between DTR-PA infection and clinical interventions, patient movement, antimicrobial use and comorbidities.

METHODS

Cases were patients colonized or infected with the outbreak strain of DTR-PA who had been admitted to hospital prior to their positive specimen. Exposures were extracted from medical records, and cases were compared with controls using conditional logistic regression. Environmental and microbiological investigations were also conducted.

FINDINGS

Seventeen cases and 51 controls were included. The final model included age [>65 years, adjusted OR (aOR) 6.85, P=0.232], sex (aOR 0.60, P=0.688), admission under the transplant team (aOR 14.27, P=0.43) and use of ciprofloxacin (aOR 102.13, P=0.030). Investigations did not indicate case-to-case transmission or a point source, although a common environmental source was highly likely.

CONCLUSION

This study found that the use of fluoroquinolones is an independent risk factor for DTR-PA in haematology patients. Antimicrobial stewardship and review of fluoroquinolone prophylaxis should be considered as part of PA outbreak investigations in addition to standard infection control interventions.

Development of a Novel Prospective Model to Predict Unplanned 90-Day Readmissions After Total Hip Arthroplasty

BACKGROUND

For hospitals participating in bundled payment programs, unplanned readmissions after surgery are often termed "bundle busters." The aim of this study was to develop the framework for a prospective model to predict 90-day unplanned readmissions after elective primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) at a macroscopic hospital-based level.

METHODS

A national, all-payer, inpatient claims and cost accounting database was used. A mixed-effect logistic regression model measuring the association of unplanned 90-day readmissions with a number of patient-level and hospital-level characteristics was constructed.

RESULTS

Using 427,809 unique inpatient THA encounters, 77 significant risk factors across 5 domains (ie, comorbidities, demographics, surgical history, active medications, and intraoperative factors) were identified. The highest frequency domain was comorbidities (64/100) with malignancies (odds ratio [OR] 2.26), disorders of the respiratory system (OR 1.75), epilepsy (OR 1.5), and psychotic disorders (OR 1.5), being the most predictive. Other notable risk factors identified by the model were the use of opioid analgesics (OR 7.3), Medicaid coverage (OR 1.8), antidepressants (OR 1.6), and blood-related medications (OR 1.6). The model produced an area under the curve of 0.715.

CONCLUSION

We developed a novel model to predict unplanned 90-day readmissions after elective primary THA. Fifteen percent of the risk factors are potentially modifiable such as use of tranexamic acid, spinal anesthesia, and opioid medications. Given the complexity of the factors involved, hospital systems with vested interest should consider incorporating some of the findings from this study in the form of electronic medical records predictive analytics tools to offer clinicians with real-time actionable data.

Sex-specific issues of central and peripheral arginine-vasopressin concentrations in neurocritical care patients

BACKGROUND

Arginine-Vasopressin (AVP) is a nonapeptide that exerts multiple functions within the central nervous system and in the blood circulation that might contribute to outcome in critically ill patients. Sex differences have been found for mental and physical effects of AVP. For example, stress response and response due to hemorrhage differ between males and females, at least in animal studies. Data on humans -especially on AVP within the central nervous system (CNS)-are scarce, as cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) which is said to represent central AVP activity, has to be collected by means of invasive procedures. Here we present data on 30 neurocritical care patients where we simultaneously collected blood, CSF and saliva to analyze concentrations in the central and peripheral compartments.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

30 neurocritical care patients were included (13 male, 13 postmenopausal female, 4 premenopausal female) with a median age of 60 years. CSF, plasma and saliva were obtained simultaneously once in each patient and analyzed for AVP concentrations. Correlations between the central compartment represented by CSF, and the peripheral compartment represented by plasma and saliva, were identified. Relations between AVP concentrations and serum sodium and hematocrit were also determined.

RESULTS

In the whole patient collective, only very weak to weak correlations could be detected between AVP plasma/CSF, plasma/saliva and CSF/saliva as well as between AVP concentrations in each of the compartments and serum sodium/hematocrit. Regarding the subgroup of postmenopausal females, a significant moderate correlation could be detected for AVP in plasma and CSF and AVP CSF and serum sodium.

CONCLUSION

Absolute concentrations of AVP in central and peripheral compartments did not show sex differences. However, correlations between AVP plasma and CSF and AVP CSF and serum sodium in postmenopausal females indicate differences in AVP secretion and AVP response to triggers that deserve further examination.

Direct Proteomic Detection and Prioritization of 19 Onchocerciasis Biomarker Candidates in Humans

Onchocerca volvulus, the causative agent of onchocerciasis, infects over 20 million people and can cause severe dermatitis and ocular conditions including blindness. Current treatments employed in mass drug administration programs do not kill adult female worms, and common diagnostic tests cannot reliably assess viability of adult worms. There is an urgent need for better diagnostic tests to facilitate monitoring the efficacy of new treatments and disease elimination efforts. Here, eight plasma samples collected from individuals infected with O. volvulus and seven from uninfected individuals were analyzed by MS/MS spectrometry to directly identify O. volvulus proteins present in infected but absent in uninfected control samples. This direct proteomic approach for biomarker discovery had not been previously employed for onchocerciasis. Among all detected proteins, 19 biomarker candidates were supported by two or more unique peptides, identified in the plasma of at least three O. volvulus-infected human samples and absent in all control samples. Comprehensive analysis and ranking of these candidates included detailed functional annotation and a review of RNA-seq gene expression profiles. Isotope-labeled standard peptides were run in parallel and validated MS/MS peptide identifications for 15 peptides from 11 of the 19 proteins, and two infected urine and one uninfected urine sample was used for additional validation. A major antigen/OVOC11613 was identified as the most promising candidate with eight unique peptides across five plasma samples and one urine sample. Additional strong candidates included OVOC1523/ATP synthase, OVOC247/laminin and OVOC11626/PLK5, and along with OVOC11613, and were also detected in urine samples from onchocerciasis patients. This study has identified a promising novel set of proteins that will be carried forward to develop assays that can be used for diagnosis of O. volvulus infections and for monitoring treatment efficacy.

Aleatoric Uncertainty for Errors-in-Variables Models in Deep Regression

A Bayesian treatment of deep learning allows for the computation of uncertainties associated with the predictions of deep neural networks. We show how the concept of Errors-in-Variables can be used in Bayesian deep regression to also account for the uncertainty associated with the input of the employed neural network. The presented approach thereby exploits a relevant, but generally overlooked, source of uncertainty and yields a decomposition of the predictive uncertainty into an aleatoric and epistemic part that is more complete and, in many cases, more consistent from a statistical perspective. We discuss the approach along various simulated and real examples and observe that using an Errors-in-Variables model leads to an increase in the uncertainty while preserving the prediction performance of models without Errors-in-Variables. For examples with known regression function we observe that this ground truth is substantially better covered by the Errors-in-Variables model, indicating that the presented approach leads to a more reliable uncertainty estimation.

Cell administration routes for heart failure: a comparative re-evaluation of the REGENERATE-DCM and REGENERATE-IHD trials

Aims: Given the logistical issues surrounding intramyocardial cell delivery, we sought to address the efficacy of the simpler, more accessible intracoronary route by re-evaluating REGENERATE-DCM and REGENERATE-IHD (autologous cell therapy trials for heart failure; n = 150). Methods: A retrospective statistical analysis was performed on the trials' combined data. The following end points were evaluated: left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide concentration (NT-proBNP), New York Heart Association class (NYHA) and quality of life. Results: This demonstrated a new efficacy signal for intracoronary delivery, with significant benefits to: LVEF (3.7%; p = 0.01), NT-proBNP (median -76 pg/ml; p = 0.04), NYHA class (48% patients; p = 0.01) and quality of life (12 ± 19; p = 0.006). The improvements in LVEF, NYHA and quality of life scores remained significant compared to the control group. Conclusion: The efficacy and logistical simplicity of intracoronary delivery should be taken into consideration for future trials.

A randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre clinical trial of AZD1656 in diabetic patients hospitalised with COVID-19: The ARCADIA Trial - implications for therapeutic immune modulation

BACKGROUND

A potential immunotherapeutic role for AZD1656 (a glucokinase activator) in the treatment of COVID-19 was hypothesized. The ARCADIA trial investigated the safety and efficacy of AZD1656 in diabetic patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.

METHODS

The ARCADIA trial was a Phase II randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial. Adult diabetic patients, admitted with COVID-19, were recruited at 28 hospitals in the UK, Romania and Czech Republic and randomly assigned (1:1) to receive AZD1656 tablets (100mg twice a day), or matched placebo, for up to 21 days, in addition to usual care. All involved were masked to treatment allocation. The primary endpoint was clinical improvement measured at Day 14. The Full Analysis Set (FAS) included all patients who received at least one dose of assigned treatment. ARCADIA is complete and registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04516759).

FINDINGS

Between 29 September 2020 to 16 April 2021, 170 patients were screened and 156 patients were randomised, three of whom did not commence treatment. Of the remaining 153, 80 were assigned to AZD1656 and 73 were assigned to placebo and included in the Full Analysis Set (FAS). The primary analysis showed no statistically significant difference between groups (AZD1656: 76·3%; Placebo: 69·9%, p=0·19). There was no difference in the number of adverse events between groups (AZD1656: 35·7%; Placebo: 33·3%). Mortality was lower in the AZD1656 group compared to the placebo group (AZD1656: four (5%); Placebo: nine (12·3%), p=0·090)). At Day 7 there were zero deaths in the AZD1656 group compared to six deaths in the placebo group (p=0·011, post hoc). A difference between groups in time to hospital discharge was also seen (p=0·16). Immunophenotyping data suggested that AZD1656-treated patients had a less pro-inflammatory immune response and a better adaptive immune response than those treated with placebo.

INTERPRETATION

Although the trial did not achieve its primary endpoint, AZD1656 was associated with a decrease in deaths and a reduction in the duration of hospitalisation, as compared to Placebo. Immunophenotyping and immunochemistry indicated an immunomodulatory effect of AZD1656. The trial suggests a beneficial therapeutic effect of AZD1656 and identifies a new therapeutic concept: small molecule activation of endogenous homeostatic immune cells which themselves become the therapeutic agent within the body. Phase 2 trials of this size carry the risk of false positive results and confirmation of these results in a larger clinical trial is now required.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) 'Innovate UK' programme and Excalibur Medicines Ltd.

Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of long COVID and association with 1-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

No effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions exist for patients with long COVID. We aimed to describe recovery 1 year after hospital discharge for COVID-19, identify factors associated with patient-perceived recovery, and identify potential therapeutic targets by describing the underlying inflammatory profiles of the previously described recovery clusters at 5 months after hospital discharge.

METHODS

The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a prospective, longitudinal cohort study recruiting adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient-reported outcome measures, physical performance, and organ function at 5 months and 1 year after hospital discharge, and stratified by both patient-perceived recovery and recovery cluster. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at 1 year. Cluster analysis was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at 5 months. Inflammatory protein profiling was analysed from plasma at the 5-month visit. This study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN10980107, and recruitment is ongoing.

FINDINGS

2320 participants discharged from hospital between March 7, 2020, and April 18, 2021, were assessed at 5 months after discharge and 807 (32·7%) participants completed both the 5-month and 1-year visits. 279 (35·6%) of these 807 patients were women and 505 (64·4%) were men, with a mean age of 58·7 (SD 12·5) years, and 224 (27·8%) had received invasive mechanical ventilation (WHO class 7-9). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between 5 months (501 [25·5%] of 1965) and 1 year (232 [28·9%] of 804). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at 1 year were female sex (odds ratio 0·68 [95% CI 0·46-0·99]), obesity (0·50 [0·34-0·74]) and invasive mechanical ventilation (0·42 [0·23-0·76]). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate with cognitive impairment, and mild, relating to the severity of physical health, mental health, and cognitive impairment at 5 months. We found increased inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate with cognitive impairment clusters compared with the mild cluster, including IL-6 concentration, which was increased in both comparisons (n=626 participants). We found a substantial deficit in median EQ-5D-5L utility index from before COVID-19 (retrospective assessment; 0·88 [IQR 0·74-1·00]), at 5 months (0·74 [0·64-0·88]) to 1 year (0·75 [0·62-0·88]), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at 1 year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters.

INTERPRETATION

The sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 were substantial 1 year after discharge across a range of health domains, with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient-perceived health-related quality of life was reduced at 1 year compared with before hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Modeling Coding Intensity of Procedures in a U.S. Population-Based Hip/Knee Arthroplasty Inpatient Cohort Adjusting for Patient- and Facility-Level Characteristics

Variations in procedure coding intensity, defined as excess coding of procedures versus industry (instead of clinical) standards, can result in differentials in quality of care for patients and have additional implications for facilities and payors. The literature regarding coding intensity of procedures is limited, with a need for risk-adjusted methods that help identify over- and under-coding using commonly available data, such as administrative claims. Risk-adjusted metrics are needed for quality control and enhancement. We propose a two-step approach to risk adjustment, using a zero-inflated Poisson model, applied to a hip-knee arthroplasty cohort discharged during 2019 (n = 313,477) for patient-level risk adjustment, and a potential additional layer for adjustment based on facility-level characteristics, when desired. A 21.41% reduction in root-mean-square error was achieved upon risk adjustment for patient-level factors alone. Furthermore, we identified facilities that over- and under-code versus industry coding expectations, adjusting for both patient-level and facility-level factors. Excess coding intensity was found to vary across multiple levels: (1) geographically across U.S. Census regional divisions; (2) temporally with marked seasonal components; (3) by facility, with some facilities largely departing from industry standards, even after adjusting for both patient- and facility-level characteristics. Our proposed method is simple to implement, generalizable, it can be used across cohorts with different sets of information available, and it is not limited by the accessibility and sparsity of electronic health records. By identifying potential over- and under-coding of procedures, quality control personnel can explore and assess internal needs for enhancements in their health delivery services and monitor subsequent quality improvements.

Explainability for deep learning in mammography image quality assessment

The application of deep learning has recently been proposed for the assessment of image quality in mammography. It was demonstrated in a proof-of-principle study that the proposed approach can be more efficient than currently applied automated conventional methods. However, in contrast to conventional methods, the deep learning approach has a black-box nature and, before it can be recommended for the routine use, it must be understood more thoroughly. For this purpose, we propose and apply a new explainability method: the oriented, modified integrated gradients (OMIG) method. The design of this method is inspired by the integrated gradientsmethod but adapted considerably to the use case at hand. To further enhance this method, an upsampling technique is developed that produces high-resolution explainability maps for the downsampled data used by the deep learning approach. Comparison with established explainability methods demonstrates that the proposed approach yields substantially more expressive and informative results for our specific use case. Application of the proposed explainability approach generally confirms the validity of the considered deep learning-based mammography image quality assessment (IQA) method. Specifically, it is demonstrated that the predicted image quality is based on a meaningful mapping that makes successful use of certain geometric structures of the images. In addition, the novel explainability method helps us to identify the parts of the employed phantom that have the largest impact on the predicted image quality, and to shed some light on cases in which the trained neural networks fail to work as expected. While tailored to assess a specific approach from deep learning for mammography IQA, the proposed explainability method could also become relevant in other, similar deep learning applications based on high-dimensional images.

A novel approach to attribute responsible physicians using inpatient claims

OBJECTIVES

More robust attribution methods are necessary to understand physician-level variation in quality of care across risk-adjusted inpatient measures. We address a gap in the literature involving attribution of physicians to inpatient stays using administrative claims data, in which rule-based methods often inadequately attribute physicians.

STUDY DESIGN

Methodology comparison study using a cross-section of inpatient stays.

METHODS

A novel approach is proposed in which physicians' relative degrees of responsibility for inpatient stays are expressed through physician-specific attribution ratios informed by existing patient characteristics and comorbidities. Attribution results are compared with the rule-based benchmark method for 7 CMS-defined clinical cohorts, including a COVID-19 cohort.

RESULTS

Using 6,835,460 unique patient encounters during 2020 (n = 136,339 in out-of-sample cohort), the proposed approach favored specialists generally considered responsible for primary clinical conditions when compared with the benchmark. The most salient shift within the acute myocardial infarction (+17.0%), heart failure (+20.2%), and coronary artery bypass graft (+4.0%) cohorts was toward the cardiovascular diseases specialty, and the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (+24.0%) and pneumonia (+16.2%) cohorts resulted in a shift toward the pulmonary diseases specialty. The COVID-19 cohort resulted in considerable shifts toward infectious diseases and pulmonary diseases specialties (+17.4% and +14.1%, respectively). The stroke cohort experienced a considerable shift toward the neurology specialty (+42.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

We provide a robust method to attribute physicians to patients, which is a necessary tool to understand physician-level variation in quality of care within the inpatient acute care setting. The proposed method provides consistency across facilities and eliminates unattributed patients resulting from unsatisfied business rules.

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC).

FINDINGS

In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]).

INTERPRETATION

In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required.

FUNDING

British Journal of Surgery Society.

"You can't just eat 16 teaspoons of sugar so why would you drink 16 teaspoons' worth of sugar?": a qualitative study of young adults' reactions to sugary drink warning labels

Background

Several jurisdictions have introduced nutrient warning front of pack (FoP) labels in an effort to curb consumption of ultra-processed foods and beverages high in free sugars (sugars added to foods and beverages, and sugars naturally present in honey, syrups, fruit juices and fruit juice concentrates). This study aimed to explore consumer understanding and perceptions of FoP warning labels that convey different nutritional and health information messages regarding the consumption of sugary drinks.

Methods

Sixteen focus groups were held with 4–8 young adults per group (aged 18–24; n = 105 participants in total) stratified by education level, location (rural centres, large cities) and gender (males, females) to ensure diversity. Labels shown to participants during group discussions included text warning labels of health effects, exercise equivalents, calorie/kilojoule information and sugar content as a “high in” label and as teaspoons (text and pictograms). Thematic analysis was undertaken.

Results

Four themes were identified related to participants’ perceived effectiveness of labels: the extent to which labels were perceived to be useful, relevant and credible; the extent to which a label elicited shock or disgust (perceived aversiveness); the extent to which the label message was resistant to self-exemption; and participants’ perceived potential of the label to reduce purchasing and consumption behaviour. Across all four themes, labels communicating the number of teaspoons of sugar in a sugary drink (whether by text or pictogram) were perceived as the most impactful, resistant to self-exemption and to have the greatest potential to reduce consumption, with enhanced reactions to the pictogram label. Labels depicting health effects, exercise equivalents, calorie/kilojoule information or a general ‘high in sugar’ warning were perceived by consumers to be less effective in one or more themes.

Conclusions

Labels conveying the amount of sugar in a beverage in teaspoons were perceived as highly factual, relatable and interpretable, and as having the greatest potential to impact consumption attitudes and intentions. Further quantitative studies are required to compare the potential effectiveness of the teaspoons of sugar labels in reducing purchasing and consumption behaviour than other alternative warning labels, such as health effects or “high in” sugar labels.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13648-1.

Diagnostic Coding Intensity among a Pneumonia Inpatient Cohort Using a Risk-Adjustment Model and Claims Data: A U.S. Population-Based Study

Hospital payments depend on the Medicare Severity Diagnosis-Related Group’s estimated cost and the set of diagnoses identified during inpatient stays. However, over-coding and under-coding diagnoses can occur for different reasons, leading to financial and clinical consequences. We provide a novel approach to measure diagnostic coding intensity, built on commonly available administrative claims data, and demonstrated through a 2019 pneumonia acute inpatient cohort (N = 182,666). A Poisson additive model (PAM) is proposed to model risk-adjusted additional coded diagnoses. Excess coding intensity per patient visit was estimated as the difference between the observed and PAM-based expected counts of secondary diagnoses upon risk adjustment by patient-level characteristics. Incidence rate ratios were extracted for patient-level characteristics and further adjustments were explored by facility-level characteristics to account for facility and geographical differences. Facility-level factors contribute substantially to explain the remaining variability in excess diagnostic coding, even upon adjusting for patient-level risk factors. This approach can provide hospitals and stakeholders with a tool to identify outlying facilities that may experience substantial differences in processes and procedures compared to peers or general industry standards. The approach does not rely on the availability of clinical information or disease-specific markers, is generalizable to other patient cohorts, and can be expanded to use other sources of information, when available.

Abstract LB557: Multiphoton phosphorescence quenching microscopy reveals kinetics of tumor oxygenation during anti-angiogenesis and angiotensin signaling inhibition

Purpose: The abnormal function of tumor blood vessels causes hypoxia fueling disease progression and conferring treatment resistance. The local level of oxygen experienced by a cell will determine its response, making it critical to understand tissue oxygen levels with a spatial resolution on the order of the size of a cell. While microenvironment normalization strategies alleviate global hypoxia, how local oxygen levels change are not known because there are no in vivo techniques to longitudinally assess tumor vessels and interstitial oxygen in tumors with sufficient resolution. Understanding the heterogeneity of oxygen levels after microenvironmental normalization will help improve the efficacy of various normalization strategies.

Experimental Design: We developed a multiphoton phosphorescence quenching microscopy system using a low-molecular weight palladium porphyrin probe to measure perfused vessels, oxygen tension and their spatial correlations in vivo in mouse skin, bone marrow, and tumors. Further, we measured the temporal and spatial changes in oxygen and vessel perfusion in tumors in response to microenvironmental normalization.

Results: We found that vessel function was highly dependent on tumor type. Although some tumors had vessels with greater oxygen carrying ability than normal skin, most tumors had inefficient vessels. Further, inter-vessel heterogeneity in tumors coincided with heterogeneous response to microenvironmental normalizing agents. Using both vascular and stromal normalizing agents, we show that spatial heterogeneity in oxygen levels persist, even with global reductions in hypoxia.

Conclusions: We present the first study to examine the high-resolution spatial and temporal response of tumor vessels to two agents known to improve vascular perfusion globally. Our measurements demonstrate that the heterogeneities in the local imbalance of pro- and anti-angiogenic signaling lead to spatially heterogeneous changes in vessel structure and function. Microscale dynamic vascular changes should be considered in optimizing the dose and schedule of microenvironment normalizing therapies to improve function.

Citation Format: John Martin, Ryan Lanning, Dai Fukumura, Timothy Padera, Rakesh Jain. Multiphoton phosphorescence quenching microscopy reveals kinetics of tumor oxygenation during anti-angiogenesis and angiotensin signaling inhibition [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2022; 2022 Apr 8-13. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(12_Suppl):Abstract nr LB557.

Developing an integrated multilevel model of uncertainty in health care: a qualitative systematic review and thematic synthesis

Introduction

Uncertainty is an inevitable part of healthcare and a source of confusion and challenge to decision-making. Several taxonomies of uncertainty have been developed, but mainly focus on decisions in clinical settings. Our goal was to develop a holistic model of uncertainty that can be applied to both clinical as well as public and global health scenarios.

Methods

We searched Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Scopus and Google scholar in March 2021 for literature reviews, qualitative studies and case studies related to classifications or models of uncertainty in healthcare. Empirical articles were assessed for study limitations using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) checklist. We synthesised the literature using a thematic analysis and developed a dynamic multilevel model of uncertainty. We sought patient input to assess relatability of the model and applied it to two case examples.

Results

We screened 4125 studies and included 15 empirical studies, 13 literature reviews and 5 case studies. We identified 77 codes and organised these into 26 descriptive and 11 analytical themes of uncertainty. The themes identified are global, public health, healthcare system, clinical, ethical, relational, personal, knowledge exchange, epistemic, aleatoric and parameter uncertainty. The themes were included in a model, which captures the macro, meso and microlevels and the inter-relatedness of uncertainty. We successfully piloted the model on one public health example and an environmental topic. The main limitations are that the research input into our model predominantly came from North America and Europe, and that we have not yet tested the model in a real-life setting.

Conclusion

We developed a model that can comprehensively capture uncertainty in public and global health scenarios. It builds on models that focus solely on clinical settings by including social and political contexts and emphasising the dynamic interplay between different areas of uncertainty.