Prodromal symptoms of rheumatoid arthritis in a primary care database: variation by ethnicity and socioeconomic status

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether prodromal symptoms of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), as recorded in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum (CPRD) database of English primary care records, differ by ethnicity and socioeconomic status.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study to determine the coding of common symptoms (≥0.1% in the sample) in the 24 months preceding RA diagnosis in CPRD Aurum, recorded between January 1st 2004 to May 1st 2022. Eligible cases were adults with a code for RA diagnosis. For each symptom, a logistic regression was performed with the symptom as dependent variable, and ethnicity and socioeconomic status as independent variables. Results were adjusted for sex, age, BMI, and smoking status. White ethnicity and the highest socioeconomic quintile were comparators.

RESULTS

In total, 70115 cases were eligible for inclusion, of which 66.4% female. Twenty-one symptoms were coded in > 0.1% of cases so were included in the analysis. Patients of South Asian ethnicity had higher frequency of codes for several symptoms, with the largest difference by odds ratio being muscle cramps (OR 1.71, 1.44-2.57) and shoulder pain (1.44, 1.25-1.66). Patients of Black ethnicity had higher prevalence of several codes including unintended weight loss (2.02, 1.25-3.28) and ankle pain (1.51, 1.02-2.23). Low socioeconomic status was associated with morning stiffness (1.74, 1.08-2.80) and falls (1.37, 2.03-1.82).

CONCLUSION

There are significant differences in coded symptoms between demographic groups, which must be considered in clinical practice in diverse populations and to avoid algorithmic bias in prediction tools derived from routinely collected healthcare data.

Health outcomes in those who have been victims of knife crime: a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Knife-enabled crime is a UK public health issue leading to substantial impacts on society, victims and their families, as well as additional strain on the healthcare system. Despite the increase in knife-enabled crime and the overwhelming consequences, there is a lack of comprehensive studies exploring the long-term health outcomes of knife crime victims in the UK. The research gap hinders the development of more targeted secondary preventative interventions, resource allocation and public awareness campaigns. This systematic review aims to identify the long-term health outcomes of knife crime victims, therefore providing valuable knowledge for stakeholders, health practitioners and policymakers for a more effective public health response.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A comprehensive search strategy was developed, focusing on four key concepts: study design, knife-related offences, outcomes and risk. Databases being searched include MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, ProQuest Criminology Collection, Web of Science Core Collection, Google Scholar and OpenGrey. Reference lists and forward citations will be inspected for further suitable literature. The study selection will involve two independent reviewers screening the studies from the search, with disagreements resolved by a third reviewer. All UK quantitative research on long-term health outcomes of knife crime victims will be included in the review. Covidence will be used to efficiently manage data. A data extraction form has been developed which will summarise key aspects of each study that will be included in the review. Methodological Index for Non-Randomised Studies quality assessment checklist will be used to assess the studies and the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale will assess the risk of bias in each study. Findings will be narratively synthesised, and if heterogeneity is sufficient, a meta-analysis will be conducted.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval is not required for this study as no original data will be collected. The results will be disseminated through a peer-reviewed publication and conference presentation.

Health effects associated with exposure to intimate partner violence against women and childhood sexual abuse: a burden of proof study

The health impacts of intimate partner violence against women and childhood sexual abuse are not fully understood. Here we conducted a systematic review by comprehensively searching seven electronic databases for literature on intimate partner violence-associated and childhood sexual abuse-associated health effects. Following the burden of proof methodology, we evaluated the evidence strength linking intimate partner violence and/or childhood sexual abuse to health outcomes supported by at least three studies. Results indicated a moderate association of intimate partner violence with major depressive disorder and with maternal abortion and miscarriage (63% and 35% increased risk, respectively). HIV/AIDS, anxiety disorders and self-harm exhibited weak associations with intimate partner violence. Fifteen outcomes were evaluated for their relationship to childhood sexual abuse, which was shown to be moderately associated with alcohol use disorders and with self-harm (45% and 35% increased risk, respectively). Associations between childhood sexual abuse and 11 additional health outcomes, such as asthma and type 2 diabetes mellitus, were found to be weak. Although our understanding remains limited by data scarcity, these health impacts are larger in magnitude and more extensive than previously reported. Renewed efforts on violence prevention and evidence-based approaches that promote healing and ensure access to care are necessary.

Cardiometabolic screening and monitoring in patients prescribed antipsychotic drugs in primary care: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the level of guideline adherence for cardiometabolic health monitoring for patients prescribed antipsychotic medicines in UK primary care.

METHODS

In this population-based retrospective open cohort study, we used dataset of patients from the IQVIA Medical Research Data (IMRD) database between 1st January 2003 to 31st December 2018. Clinical Read codes were used to identify a cohort of adult patients with a diagnosis of Schizophrenia and at least four prescriptions of an anti-psychotic medication within 12 months of diagnosis. We then extracted data in relation to monitoring of cardiometabolic parameters (body compositions, lipids, and glucose outcomes) at baseline, then at six weeks, 12 weeks, and then 12 months. The frequency of outcome monitoring was described using descriptive statistics.

FINDINGS

A total of 11,435 patients were eligible and of them (n = 9707; 84·8%) were prescribed second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs). Only a small portion of the cohort (≈2·0%) received complete monitoring (at time points) for certain outcomes. Just over half the patients (n = 6599, 52%) had evidence of any cardiometabolic baseline testing for any of the study outcomes and the high majority had at least one abnormal lab value at baseline (n = 4627, 96·7%).

INTERPRETATION

In UK primary care, cardiometabolic monitoring practices among patients prescribed antipsychotics remain suboptimal. There is a need to promote guideline adherence to prevent adverse outcomes in antipsychotic users.

Healthcare interventions for sex workers: protocol for a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Sex workers, who provide sexual or erotic acts in exchange for payment, often experience multiple disadvantages, including mental ill health and substance misuse. Mainstream healthcare services are generally not configured to facilitate engagement with sex workers and therefore, services are needed that are accessible to this population. The aim of this scoping review is to understand the evidence base for approaches, services and interventions that are aimed at addressing sex workers' health needs.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Nine databases, CINAHL, Embase, EThOS, Google Scholar, Health Management Information Consortium, MEDLINE, ProQuest Dissertations and Theses, PsycINFO and Web of Science (Core Collection), will be searched, with results limited to English language publications and those published from 2003 onwards. De-duplication, study selection and data extraction will be conducted using Covidence software. Included studies will describe or evaluate approaches, services or interventions that address the health needs of sex workers who offer services that involve physical contact with a client.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

No ethical review is needed. The final report will be shared with Birmingham City Council as part of ongoing work and will be disseminated by peer-reviewed publication.

STUDY REGISTRATION

Open Science Framework (doi: 10.17605/OSF.IO/N7WSX).

Seasonal variation of serum potassium and related prescription pattern: an ecological time series

Aims To assess if ambient temperature-related effects on serum potassium levels impact clinical decision-making. Methods This study is an ecological time series consisiting of 1 218 453 adult patients with at least one ACE inhibitor (ACEI) prescription who participate in a large UK primary care dataset.Descriptive statistics and a quasi-Poisson regression model using time series data at regular time intervals (monthly) were undertaken to examine the association between potassium measurements and ACEI/potassium supplement prescriptions. RESULTS: It is noted that correlating with lower ambient temperature, serum potassium values follow a seasonal pattern; peaks in winter months and troughs in summer. During summer months, there are clear annual spikes in the number of potassium prescriptions suggesting a change in prescribing practice during periods of potentially spurious hyperkalaemia. The converse pattern is seen in the ACEI prescription proportion which spikes annually during the winter period with lower average ambient temperatures. Our time series modelling demonstrated that each one unit increase in potassium is associated with a 33% increased rate of ACEI prescriptions (risk ratio, RR 1.33; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.59) and 63% decreased rate of potassium supplements (RR 0.37; 95% CI 0.32 to 0.43). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the seasonal pattern in serum potassium and we observe a corresponding alteration in prescribing practice for potassium sensitive medications. These findings demonstrate the importance of educating clinicians on the presence of seasonal potassium variability in addition to standard measurement error, and its potential impact on their prescribing activity.

The risk of all-cause mortality associated with anxiety: a retrospective cohort study using 'The Health Improvement Network' database

BACKGROUND

Anxiety is a prevalent condition with a substantial associated burden of morbidity. Previous literature investigating effects of anxiety on mortality rates has found conflicting results. This is in part due to inadequate consideration of comorbid depression as a confounder and analysing sub-types of anxiety together. The objective of this study was to compare mortality risks in people diagnosed with anxiety.

METHODS

We undertook a retrospective cohort study using the 'The Health Improvement Network' database (a UK primary care dataset) between 1st January 2005 to 1st January 2018. 345 903 patients with anxiety (exposed group) were matched to 691 449 unexposed patients. Cox regression analyses were used to adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality risk.

RESULTS

During the study period 18 962 patients (5·5%) died in the exposed group compared to 32 288 (4·7%) in the unexposed group. This translated into a crude HR for all of 1·14 (95% CI 1·12 - 1·16), which remained significant after adjustment for key co-variates (including depression) giving a final HR of 1·05 (95% CI 1·03 - 1·07). When broken down by sub-type of anxiety (10·3% (35, 581) had phobias, 82·7% (385,882) has 'other' types, and 7·0% (24,262) had stress related anxiety) there were markedly different effect sizes. The adjusted model for the stress-related anxiety sub-type demonstrated a HR of 0·88 (95% CI 0·80 - 0·97). Conversely, the HR was increased in 'other' sub-types to 1·07 (95% CI 1·05 - 1·09) and non-significant in phobia types of anxiety.

CONCLUSION

A complex relationship is found between anxiety and mortality. The presence of anxiety slightly increased the risk of death, but this risk varies depending on the type of anxiety diagnosed.

Exposure to Domestic Abuse and the Subsequent Development of Atopic Disease in Women

BACKGROUND

Exposure to domestic violence and abuse (DVA) is a global public health issue associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. There are few high-quality studies that assess the impact of DVA exposure on the development of atopic disease.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between exposure to DVA and the subsequent development of atopy.

METHODS

In this population-based, retrospective, open cohort study, we identified women with no history of atopic disease between January 1, 1995 and September 30, 2019 from IQVIA Medical Research Data, an anonymized UK primary care dataset. We used clinical codes to identify exposed patients (those with a code identifying exposure to DVA; n = 13,852) and unexposed patients (n = 49,036), who were matched by age and deprivation quintile. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) (with 95% CIs) of developing atopic disease: asthma, atopic eczema, or allergic rhinoconjunctivitis.

RESULTS

During the study period, 967 exposed women (incidence rate, 20.10/1,000 person-years) developed atopic disease, compared with 2,607 unexposed women (incidence rate, 13.24/1,000 person-years). This translated to an adjusted HR of 1.52 (95% CI, 1.41-1.64) accounting for key confounders; asthma (adjusted HR = 1.69; 95% CI, 1.44-1.99), atopic eczema (adjusted HR = 1.40; 95% CI, 1.26-1.56), and allergic rhinoconjunctivitis (adjusted HR = 1.63; 95% CI, 1.45-1.84).

CONCLUSIONS

Domestic violence and abuse is a significant global public health issue. These results demonstrate a significant associated risk for developing atopic disease. Public health approaches to the prevention and detection of DVA are necessary to reduce the associated ill health burden.

Ethical reporting of research on violence against women and children: a review of current practice and recommendations for future guidelines

Changes in research practice during the COVID-19 pandemic necessitates renewed attention to ethical protocols and reporting for data collection on sensitive topics. This review summarises the state of ethical reporting among studies collecting violence data during early stages of the pandemic. We systematically searched for journal publications from the start of the pandemic to November 2021, identifying 75 studies that collected primary data on violence against women and/or violence against children. We developed and applied a 14-item checklist of best practices to assess the transparency of ethics reporting and adherence to relevant global guidelines on violence research. Studies reported adhering to best practices on 31% of scored items. Reporting was highest for ethical clearance (87%) and informed consent/assent (84/83%) and lowest for whether measures to promote interviewer safety and support (3%), for facilitating referrals for minors and soliciting participant feedback were in place (both 0%). Violence studies employing primary data collection during COVID-19 reported on few ethical standards, obscuring stakeholder ability to enforce a 'do no harm' approach and to assess the reliability of findings. We offer recommendations and guidelines to improve future reporting and implementation of ethics within violence studies.

Associations between primary care recorded cannabis use and mental ill health in the UK: a population-based retrospective cohort study using UK primary care data

BACKGROUND

Cannabis use is a global public health issue associated with increased risks of developing mental health disorders, especially in young people. We aimed to investigate the relationships between cannabis exposure and risks of receiving mental illness diagnoses or treatment as outcomes.

METHODS

A population based, retrospective, open cohort study using patients recorded in 'IQVIA medical research data', a UK primary care database. Read codes were used to confirm patients with recorded exposure to cannabis use who were matched up to two unexposed patients. We examined the risk of developing three categories of mental ill health: depression, anxiety or serious mental illness (SMI).

RESULTS

At study entry, the exposed cohort had an increased likelihood of having experienced mental ill health [odds ratio (OR) 4.13; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.99-4.27] and mental ill health-related prescription (OR 2.95; 95% CI 2.86-3.05) compared to the unexposed group. During the study period we found that exposure to cannabis was associated with an increased risk of developing any mental disorder [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.73; 95% CI 2.59-2.88], also noted when examining by subtype of disorder: anxiety (aHR 2.46; 95% CI 2.29-2.64), depression (aHR 2.34; 95% CI 2.20-2.49) and SMI (aHR 6.41; 95% CI 5.42-7.57). These results remained robust in sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

These findings point to the potential need for a public health approach to the management of people misusing cannabis. However, there is a gross under-recording of cannabis use in GP records, as seen by the prevalence of recorded cannabis exposure substantially lower than self-reported survey records.

Non-Pharmacological Therapies for Post-Viral Syndromes, Including Long COVID: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Post-viral syndromes (PVS), including Long COVID, are symptoms sustained from weeks to years following an acute viral infection. Non-pharmacological treatments for these symptoms are poorly understood. This review summarises the evidence for the effectiveness of non-pharmacological treatments for PVS.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review to evaluate the effectiveness of non-pharmacological interventions for PVS, as compared to either standard care, alternative non-pharmacological therapy, or placebo. The outcomes of interest were changes in symptoms, exercise capacity, quality of life (including mental health and wellbeing), and work capability. We searched five databases (Embase, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, MedRxiv) for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) published between 1 January 2001 to 29 October 2021. The relevant outcome data were extracted, the study quality was appraised using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool, and the findings were synthesised narratively.

FINDINGS

Overall, five studies of five different interventions (Pilates, music therapy, telerehabilitation, resistance exercise, neuromodulation) met the inclusion criteria. Aside from music-based intervention, all other selected interventions demonstrated some support in the management of PVS in some patients.

INTERPRETATION

In this study, we observed a lack of robust evidence evaluating the non-pharmacological treatments for PVS, including Long COVID. Considering the prevalence of prolonged symptoms following acute viral infections, there is an urgent need for clinical trials evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of non-pharmacological treatments for patients with PVS.

REGISTRATION

The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO [CRD42021282074] in October 2021 and published in BMJ Open in 2022.

Exposure to domestic abuse and the subsequent risk of developing periodontal disease

Aims

Periodontal disease and domestic abuse (DA) are significant public health problems. Previous cross-sectional evidence indicates an association between DA exposure and development of periodontal disease. There have been no large-scale cohort studies exploring this relationship in a UK-setting. Our aim was to conduct a population-based retrospective open cohort study to explore the association between DA exposure and the subsequent development of general practitioner (GP)-coded periodontal disease.

Materials and methods

We undertook a retrospective open-cohort study using the IQVIA Medical Research Database (IMRD) UK database between the 1^st January 1995 to 31^st January 2021. Women (aged 18 years and over) exposed to DA were matched by age, deprivation, and smoking status to up to 4 unexposed women, all of whom had no pre-existing record of periodontal disease. Cox regression analysis was used to calculate crude and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) to describe the risk of developing periodontal disease in the exposed group.

Results

23429 exposed patients were matched to 69815 unexposed patients. During the study period, 78 exposed patients had developed GP-recorded periodontal disease compared to 154 in the unexposed group, translating to an IR of 94.18 per 100,000 person years (py) and 54.67 per 100,000 py respectively. Following adjustment for key covariates, this translated to an aHR of 1.74 (95% CI 1.31-2.32), which was robust during our sensitivity analysis.

Conclusions

Our results provide further evidence that DA exposure is associated with increased risk of developing periodontal disease. There is a need for swift implementation of public health policies to improve surveillance, reporting, and prevention of DA.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Association between childhood maltreatment and atopy in the UK: A population based retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Childhood maltreatment affects over one in three children worldwide and is associated with a substantial disease burden. This study explores the association between childhood maltreatment and the development of atopic disease.

METHODS

We did a population-based retrospective matched open cohort study using participating general practices between 1st January 1995 and 30th September 2019. Read codes were utilised to identify patients exposed to childhood maltreatment (either suspected or confirmed) who were matched to up to four unexposed patients by age, sex, general practice, and Townsend deprivation quintile. Cox regression analysis was used to calculate adjusted (age, sex, Townsend deprivation quintile) hazard ratios (aHR) for development of atopy (asthma, atopic dermatitis, or allergic rhino conjunctivitis) during follow up in those without atopy at study entry.

RESULTS

183,897 exposed patients were matched to 621,699 unexposed patients. During the follow up period, 18,555 patients (incidence rate (IR) 28.18 per 1000 person-years) in the exposed group developed atopic disease compared to the 68,368 (IR 23.58 per 1000 person-years) in the unexposed group, translating to an adjusted HR of 1.14 (95% CI 1.12-1.15). Notably, the risk of developing asthma was aHR 1.42 (95% CI 1.37-1.46). Associations were more pronounced in analyses restricted to females and confirmed cases of childhood maltreatment only.

INTERPRETATION

Considering the substantial health burden associated with childhood maltreatment, it is important to implement public health policies aimed at enhancing: 1) detection and primary prevention of childhood maltreatment, 2) secondary and tertiary prevention interventions to reduce the burden of ill health associated with exposure to maltreatment and 3) clinical awareness of such associations and subsequent knowledge of management.

FUNDING

None.

The association between inflammatory bowel disease and mental ill health: a retrospective cohort study using data from UK primary care

BACKGROUND

Patients with active inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and mental illnesses experience worse IBD outcomes.

AIM

To describe the incidence of mental illnesses, including deliberate self-harm, in IBD patients.

METHODS

A population-based retrospective cohort study using IQVIA medical research data of a primary care database covering the whole UK, between January 1995 and January 2021. IBD patients of all ages were matched 4:1 by demographics and primary care practice to unexposed controls. Following exclusion of patients with mental ill health at study entry, adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of developing depression, anxiety, deliberate self-harm, severe mental illness and insomnia were calculated using a Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

We included 48,799 incident IBD patients: 28,352 with ulcerative colitis and 20,447 with Crohn's disease. Incidence rate ratios of mental illness were higher in IBD patients than controls (all p < 0.001): deliberate self-harm 1.31 (95% CI 1.16-1.47), anxiety 1.17 (1.11-1.24), depression 1.36 (1.31-1.42) and insomnia 1.62 (1.54-1.69). Patients with Crohn's disease were more likely to develop deliberate self-harm HR 1.51 (95% CI 1.28-1.78), anxiety 1.38 (1.16-1.65), depression 1.36 (1.26-1.47) and insomnia 1.74 (1.62-1.86). Patients with IBD are at increased risk of deliberate self-harm (HR 1.20 [1.07-1.35]). The incidence rate ratios of mental illnesses were particularly high during the first year following IBD diagnosis: anxiety 1.28 (1.13-1.46), depression 1.62 (1.48-1.77) and insomnia 1.99 (1.78-2.21).

CONCLUSION

Deliberate self-harm, depression, anxiety and insomnia were more frequent among patients with IBD. IBD is independently associated with an increased risk of deliberate self-harm.

Cluster analysis of patients with granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA) based on clinical presentation symptoms: a UK population-based cohort study

Background

Granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA) is small vessel vasculitis with heterogeneous clinical presentation. In the present population-based cohort study, we classified patients with GPA based on clinical features at presentation using an unsupervised clustering approach and compared their mortality, infections and frequency of comorbidities.

Methods

In this open cohort study, de-identified primary care data of patients with GPA included in the IQVIA Medical Research Data database between 1 January 1995 and 25 September 2019 was analysed retrospectively. Latent class analysis was performed to create symptom clusters of patients based on 16 categories of symptoms representing various organ involvement. All-cause mortality of resultant clusters was compared after adjusting for age, sex, Townsend deprivation quintile and smoking status at index date using extended Cox proportional hazards models. Prescription of antibiotics, considered as an indirect indicator of recurrent bacterial infection, was compared using a recurrent event model, after adjusting for quarterly use of steroid as a time-dependent covariate. Cumulative frequencies of common comorbidities were compared among the clusters at index visit, 1-year and 3-year follow-up.

Results

Altogether, 649 patients with GPA [median age 60.0 (IQR: 49.6–70.1)] were included. Three clusters were identified: patients with limited disease mainly with involvement of ENT and cough were classified into cluster 1 (n = 426); cluster 2 had generalised non-renal disease (n = 176); while patients in cluster 3 had renal-predominant disease (n = 47). Many patients in cluster 1 developed generalised disease at the end of 1 year. Mortality in clusters 2 and 3 was higher compared with cluster 1. Mortality in cluster 1 itself was 68% higher than the general population without GPA. The duration of antibiotics prescription and frequency of coexisting medical illnesses was also higher in clusters 2 and 3.

Conclusions

In a primary care setting, patients with GPA can be classified into three distinct clusters with different prognosis, susceptibility to recurrent infections and presence of comorbidities. The tendency of cluster 1 to evolve into a more generalised disease raises questions about current immunosuppressive treatment approaches in these patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13075-022-02885-9.

Symptoms and risk factors for long COVID in non-hospitalized adults

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is associated with a range of persistent symptoms impacting everyday functioning, known as post-COVID-19 condition or long COVID. We undertook a retrospective matched cohort study using a UK-based primary care database, Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum, to determine symptoms that are associated with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection beyond 12 weeks in non-hospitalized adults and the risk factors associated with developing persistent symptoms. We selected 486,149 adults with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and 1,944,580 propensity score-matched adults with no recorded evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Outcomes included 115 individual symptoms, as well as long COVID, defined as a composite outcome of 33 symptoms by the World Health Organization clinical case definition. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for the outcomes. A total of 62 symptoms were significantly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection after 12 weeks. The largest aHRs were for anosmia (aHR 6.49, 95% CI 5.02-8.39), hair loss (3.99, 3.63-4.39), sneezing (2.77, 1.40-5.50), ejaculation difficulty (2.63, 1.61-4.28) and reduced libido (2.36, 1.61-3.47). Among the cohort of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, risk factors for long COVID included female sex, belonging to an ethnic minority, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, obesity and a wide range of comorbidities. The risk of developing long COVID was also found to be increased along a gradient of decreasing age. SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with a plethora of symptoms that are associated with a range of sociodemographic and clinical risk factors.

Estimating the global health impact of gender-based violence and violence against children: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol

INTRODUCTION

Exposure to gender-based violence (GBV) and violence against children (VAC) can result in substantial morbidity and mortality. Previous reviews of health outcomes associated with GBV and VAC have focused on limited definitions of exposure to violence (ie, intimate partner violence) and often investigate associations only with predefined health outcomes. In this protocol, we describe a systematic review and meta-analysis for a comprehensive assessment of the impact of violence exposure on health outcomes and health-related risk factors across the life-course.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Global Index Medicus, Cochrane and Web of Science Core Collection) will be searched from 1 January 1970 to 30 September 2021 and searches updated to the current date prior to final preparation of results. Reviewers will first screen titles and abstracts, and eligible articles will then be full-text screened and accepted should they meet all inclusion criteria. Data will be extracted using a standardised form with fields to capture study characteristics and estimates of association between violence exposure and health outcomes. Individual study quality will be assessed via six risk of bias criteria. For exposure-outcome pairs with sufficient data, evidence will be synthesised via a meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed model and confidence in the cumulative evidence assessed via the burden of proof risk function. Where possible, variations in associations by subgroup, that is, age, sex or gender, will be explored.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Formal ethical approval is not required. Findings from this review will be used to inform improved estimation of GBV and VAC within the Global Burden of Disease Study. The review has been undertaken in conjunction with the Lancet Commission on GBV and the Maltreatment of Young People with the aim of providing new data insights for a report on the global response to violence.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022299831.

Burden of non-communicable diseases among adolescents aged 10-24 years in the EU, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Disability and mortality burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have risen worldwide; however, the NCD burden among adolescents remains poorly described in the EU.

METHODS

Estimates were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Causes of NCDs were analysed at three different levels of the GBD 2019 hierarchy, for which mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were extracted. Estimates, with the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI), were retrieved for EU Member States from 1990 to 2019, three age subgroups (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years), and by sex. Spearman's correlation was conducted between DALY rates for NCDs and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) of each EU Member State.

FINDINGS

In 2019, NCDs accounted for 86·4% (95% uncertainty interval 83·5-88·8) of all YLDs and 38·8% (37·4-39·8) of total deaths in adolescents aged 10-24 years. For NCDs in this age group, neoplasms were the leading causes of both mortality (4·01 [95% uncertainty interval 3·62-4·25] per 100 000 population) and YLLs (281·78 [254·25-298·92] per 100 000 population), whereas mental disorders were the leading cause for YLDs (2039·36 [1432·56-2773·47] per 100 000 population) and DALYs (2040·59 [1433·96-2774·62] per 100 000 population) in all EU Member States, and in all studied age groups. In 2019, among adolescents aged 10-24 years, males had a higher mortality rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs than females (11·66 [11·04-12·28] vs 7·89 [7·53-8·23]), whereas females presented a higher DALY rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs (8003·25 [5812·78-10 701·59] vs 6083·91 [4576·63-7857·92]). From 1990 to 2019, mortality rate due to NCDs in adolescents aged 10-24 years substantially decreased (-40·41% [-43·00 to -37·61), and also the YLL rate considerably decreased (-40·56% [-43·16 to -37·74]), except for mental disorders (which increased by 32·18% [1·67 to 66·49]), whereas the YLD rate increased slightly (1·44% [0·09 to 2·79]). Positive correlations were observed between DALY rates and SDIs for substance use disorders (r_s=0·58, p=0·0012) and skin and subcutaneous diseases (r_s=0·45, p=0·017), whereas negative correlations were found between DALY rates and SDIs for cardiovascular diseases (r_s=-0·46, p=0·015), neoplasms (r_s=-0·57, p=0·0015), and sense organ diseases (r_s=-0·61, p=0·0005).

INTERPRETATION

NCD-related mortality has substantially declined among adolescents in the EU between 1990 and 2019, but the rising trend of YLL attributed to mental disorders and their YLD burden are concerning. Differences by sex, age group, and across EU Member States highlight the importance of preventive interventions and scaling up adolescent-responsive health-care systems, which should prioritise specific needs by sex, age, and location.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Long-term impact of pre-incision antibiotics on children born by caesarean section: a longitudinal study based on UK electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Since changes in the national guidance in 2011, prophylactic antibiotics for women undergoing caesarean section are recommended prior to skin incision, rather than after the baby's umbilical cord has been clamped. Evidence from randomised controlled trials conducted outside the UK has shown that this reduces maternal infectious morbidity; however, the prophylactic antibiotics also cross the placenta, meaning that babies are exposed to them around the time of birth. Antibiotics are known to affect the gut microbiota of the babies, but the long-term effects of exposure to high-dose broad-spectrum antibiotics around the time of birth on allergy and immune-related diseases are unknown.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to examine whether or not in-utero exposure to antibiotics immediately prior to birth compared with no pre-incisional antibiotic exposure increases the risk of (1) asthma and (2) eczema in children born by caesarean section.

DESIGN

This was a controlled interrupted time series study.

SETTING

The study took place in primary and secondary care.

PARTICIPANTS

Children born in the UK during 2006-18 delivered by caesarean section were compared with a control cohort delivered vaginally.

INTERVENTIONS

In-utero exposure to antibiotics immediately prior to birth.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Asthma and eczema in children in the first 5 years of life. Additional secondary outcomes, including other allergy-related conditions, autoimmune diseases, infections, other immune system-related diseases and neurodevelopmental conditions, were also assessed.

DATA SOURCES

The Health Improvement Network (THIN) and the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) primary care databases and the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database. Previously published linkage strategies were adapted to link anonymised data on mothers and babies in these databases. Duplicate practices contributing to both THIN and the CPRD databases were removed to create a THIN-CPRD data set.

RESULTS

In the THIN-CPRD and HES data sets, records of 515,945 and 3,945,351 mother-baby pairs were analysed, respectively. The risk of asthma was not significantly higher in children born by caesarean section exposed to pre-incision antibiotics than in children whose mothers received post-cord clamping antibiotics, with an incidence rate ratio of 0.91 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.05) for diagnosis of asthma in primary care and an incidence rate ratio of 1.05 (95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.11) for asthma resulting in a hospital admission. We also did not find an increased risk of eczema, with an incidence rate ratio of 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.94 to1.03) and an incidence rate ratio of 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.71 to 1.29) for diagnosis in primary care and hospital admissions, respectively.

LIMITATIONS

It was not possible to ascertain the exposure to pre-incision antibiotics at an individual level. The maximum follow-up of children was 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no evidence that the policy change from post-cord clamping to pre-incision prophylactic antibiotics for caesarean sections during 2006-18 had an impact on the incidence of asthma and eczema in early childhood in the UK.

FUTURE WORK

There is a need for further research to investigate if pre-incision antibiotics have any impact on developing asthma and other allergy and immune-related conditions in older children.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as researchregistry3736.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 30. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The burden of injury in Central, Eastern, and Western European sub-region: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

BACKGROUND

Injury remains a major concern to public health in the European region. Previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study showed wide variation in injury death and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates across Europe, indicating injury inequality gaps between sub-regions and countries. The objectives of this study were to: 1) compare GBD 2019 estimates on injury mortality and DALYs across European sub-regions and countries by cause-of-injury category and sex; 2) examine changes in injury DALY rates over a 20 year-period by cause-of-injury category, sub-region and country; and 3) assess inequalities in injury mortality and DALY rates across the countries.

METHODS

We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the GBD 2019 results on injuries in 44 European countries from 2000 to 2019. Inequality in DALY rates between these countries was assessed by calculating the DALY rate ratio between the highest-ranking country and lowest-ranking country in each year.

RESULTS

In 2019, in Eastern Europe 80 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 71 to 89] people per 100,000 died from injuries; twice as high compared to Central Europe (38 injury deaths per 100,000; 95% UI 34 to 42) and three times as high compared to Western Europe (27 injury deaths per 100,000; 95%UI 25 to 28). The injury DALY rates showed less pronounced differences between Eastern (5129 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 4547 to 5864), Central (2940 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 2452 to 3546) and Western Europe (1782 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 1523 to 2115). Injury DALY rate was lowest in Italy (1489 DALYs per 100,000) and highest in Ukraine (5553 DALYs per 100,000). The difference in injury DALY rates by country was larger for males compared to females. The DALY rate ratio was highest in 2005, with DALY rate in the lowest-ranking country (Russian Federation) 6.0 times higher compared to the highest-ranking country (Malta). After 2005, the DALY rate ratio between the lowest- and the highest-ranking country gradually decreased to 3.7 in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

Injury mortality and DALY rates were highest in Eastern Europe and lowest in Western Europe, although differences in injury DALY rates declined rapidly, particularly in the past decade. The injury DALY rate ratio of highest- and lowest-ranking country declined from 2005 onwards, indicating declining inequalities in injuries between European countries.

Long term impact of prophylactic antibiotic use before incision versus after cord clamping on children born by caesarean section: longitudinal study of UK electronic health records

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the impact on child health up to age 5 years of a policy to use antibiotic prophylaxis for caesarean section before incision compared with after cord clamping.

DESIGN

Observational controlled interrupted time series study.

SETTING

UK primary and secondary care.

PARTICIPANTS

515 945 children born in 2006-18 with linked maternal records and registered with general practices contributing to two UK primary care databases (The Health Improvement Network and Clinical Practice Research Datalink), and 7 147 884 children with linked maternal records in the Hospital Episode Statistics database covering England, of which 3 945 351 were linked to hospitals that reported the year of policy change to administer prophylactic antibiotics for caesarean section before incision rather than after cord clamping.

INTERVENTION

Fetal exposure to antibiotics shortly before birth (using pre-incision antibiotic policy as proxy) compared with no exposure.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcomes were incidence rate ratios of asthma and eczema in children born by caesarean section when pre-incision prophylactic antibiotics were recommended compared with those born when antibiotics were administered post-cord clamping, adjusted for temporal changes in the incidence rates in children born vaginally.

RESULTS

Prophylactic antibiotics administered before incision for caesarean section compared with after cord clamping were not associated with a significantly higher risk of asthma (incidence rate ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.05) or eczema (0.98, 0.94 to 1.03), including asthma and eczema resulting in hospital admission (1.05, 0.99 to 1.11 and 0.96, 0.71 to 1.29, respectively), up to age 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found no evidence of an association between pre-incision prophylactic antibiotic use and risk of asthma and eczema in early childhood in children born by caesarean section.

Risk of a subsequent diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease in subjects with ophthalmic disorders associated with inflammatory bowel disease: a retrospective cohort analysis of UK primary care data

OBJECTIVES

Ophthalmic conditions including anterior uveitis (AU), episcleritis and scleritis may occur in association with the inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) as ophthalmic extraintestinal manifestations. The aim of this study was to assess the risk of a later IBD diagnosis in those presenting with IBD associated ocular inflammation (IAOI).

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Primary care UK database.

PARTICIPANTS

38 805 subjects with an IAOI were identified (median age 51 (38-65), 57% women) and matched to 153 018 subjects without IAOI.

MEASURES

The risk of a subsequent diagnosis of IBD in subjects with IAOIs compared with age/sex matched subjects without IAOI. HRs were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, deprivation, comorbidity, smoking, baseline axial arthropathy, diarrhoea, loperamide prescription, anaemia, lower gastrointestinal bleeding and abdominal pain.Logistic regression was used to produce a prediction model for a diagnosis of IBD within 3 years of an AU diagnosis.

RESULTS

213 (0.6%) subsequent IBD diagnoses (102 ulcerative colitis (UC) and 111 Crohn's disease (CD)) were recorded in those with IAOIs and 329 (0.2%) (215 UC and 114 CD) in those without. Median time to IBD diagnosis was 882 (IQR 365-2043) days in those with IAOI and 1403 (IQR 623-2516) in those without. The adjusted HR for a subsequent diagnosis of IBD was 2.25 (95% CI 1.89 to 2.68), p<0.001; for UC 1.65 (95% CI 1.30 to 2.09), p<0.001; and for CD 3.37 (95% CI 2.59 to 4.40), p<0.001 in subjects with IAOI compared with those without.Within 3 years of an AU diagnosis, 84 (0.5%) subjects had a recorded diagnosis of IBD. The prediction model performed well with a C-statistic of 0.75 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.80).

CONCLUSIONS

Subjects with IAOI have a twofold increased risk of a subsequent IBD diagnosis. Healthcare professionals should be alert for potential signs and symptoms of IBD in those presenting with ophthalmic conditions associated with IBD.

The burden of mental disorders, substance use disorders and self-harm among young people in Europe, 1990-2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Mental health is a public health issue for European young people, with great heterogeneity in resource allocation. Representative population-based studies are needed. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 provides internationally comparable information on trends in the health status of populations and changes in the leading causes of disease burden over time.

Methods

Prevalence, incidence, Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from mental disorders (MDs), substance use disorders (SUDs) and self-harm were estimated for young people aged 10-24 years in 31 European countries. Rates per 100,000 population, percentage changes in 1990-2019, 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs), and correlations with Sociodemographic Index (SDI), were estimated.

Findings

In 2019, rates per 100,000 population were 16,983 (95% UI 12,823 - 21,630) for MDs, 3,891 (3,020 - 4,905) for SUDs, and 89·1 (63·8 - 123·1) for self-harm. In terms of disability, anxiety contributed to 647·3 (432-912·3) YLDs, while in terms of premature death, self-harm contributed to 319·6 (248·9-412·8) YLLs, per 100,000 population. Over the 30 years studied, YLDs increased in eating disorders (14·9%;9·4-20·1) and drug use disorders (16·9%;8·9-26·3), and decreased in idiopathic developmental intellectual disability (-29·1%;23·8-38·5). YLLs decreased in self-harm (-27·9%;38·3-18·7). Variations were found by sex, age-group and country. The burden of SUDs and self-harm was higher in countries with lower SDI, MDs were associated with SUDs.

Interpretation

Mental health conditions represent an important burden among young people living in Europe. National policies should strengthen mental health, with a specific focus on young people.

Funding

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Therapies for Long COVID in non-hospitalised individuals: from symptoms, patient-reported outcomes and immunology to targeted therapies (The TLC Study)

INTRODUCTION

Individuals with COVID-19 frequently experience symptoms and impaired quality of life beyond 4-12 weeks, commonly referred to as Long COVID. Whether Long COVID is one or several distinct syndromes is unknown. Establishing the evidence base for appropriate therapies is needed. We aim to evaluate the symptom burden and underlying pathophysiology of Long COVID syndromes in non-hospitalised individuals and evaluate potential therapies.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A cohort of 4000 non-hospitalised individuals with a past COVID-19 diagnosis and 1000 matched controls will be selected from anonymised primary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, and invited by their general practitioners to participate on a digital platform (Atom5). Individuals will report symptoms, quality of life, work capability and patient-reported outcome measures. Data will be collected monthly for 1 year.Statistical clustering methods will be used to identify distinct Long COVID-19 symptom clusters. Individuals from the four most prevalent clusters and two control groups will be invited to participate in the BioWear substudy which will further phenotype Long COVID symptom clusters by measurement of immunological parameters and actigraphy.We will review existing evidence on interventions for postviral syndromes and Long COVID to map and prioritise interventions for each newly characterised Long COVID syndrome. Recommendations will be made using the cumulative evidence in an expert consensus workshop. A virtual supportive intervention will be coproduced with patients and health service providers for future evaluation.Individuals with lived experience of Long COVID will be involved throughout this programme through a patient and public involvement group.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval was obtained from the Solihull Research Ethics Committee, West Midlands (21/WM/0203). Research findings will be presented at international conferences, in peer-reviewed journals, to Long COVID patient support groups and to policymakers.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

1567490.

Non-pharmacological therapies for postviral syndromes, including Long COVID: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol

INTRODUCTION

Postviral syndromes (PVS) describe the sustained presence of symptoms following an acute viral infection, for months or even years. Exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and subsequent development of COVID-19 has shown to have similar effects with individuals continuing to exhibit symptoms for greater than 12 weeks. The sustained presence of symptoms is variably referred to as 'post COVID-19 syndrome', 'post-COVID condition' or more commonly 'Long COVID'. Knowledge of the long-term health impacts and treatments for Long COVID are evolving. To minimise overlap with existing work in the field exploring treatments of Long COVID, we have only chosen to focus on non-pharmacological treatments.

AIMS

This review aims to summarise the effectiveness of non-pharmacological treatments for PVS, including Long COVID. A secondary aim is to summarise the symptoms and health impacts associated with PVS in individuals recruited to treatment studies.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Primary electronic searches will be performed in bibliographic databases including: Embase, MEDLINE, PyscINFO, CINAHL and MedRxiv from 1 January 2001 to 29 October 2021. At least two independent reviewers will screen each study for inclusion and data will be extracted from all eligible studies onto a data extraction form. The quality of all included studies will be assessed using Cochrane risk of bias tools and the Newcastle-Ottawa grading system. Non-pharmacological treatments for PVS and Long COVID will be narratively summarised and effect estimates will be pooled using random effects meta-analysis where there is sufficient methodological homogeneity. The symptoms and health impacts reported in the included studies on non-pharmacological interventions will be extracted and narratively reported.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This systematic review does not require ethical approval. The findings from this study will be submitted for peer-reviewed publication, shared at conference presentations and disseminated to both clinical and patient groups.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

The review will adhere to this protocol which has also been registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021282074).

Implementation of novel and conventional outbreak control measures in managing COVID-19 outbreaks in a large UK prison

Background

Outbreak control measures during COVID-19 outbreaks in a large UK prison consisted of standard (e.g., self-isolation) and novel measures, including establishment of: (i) reverse cohorting units for accommodating new prison admissions; (ii) protective isolation unit for isolating symptomatic prisoners, and (iii) a shielding unit to protect medically vulnerable prisoners.

Methods

Single-centre prospective longitudinal study (outbreak control study), implementing novel and traditional outbreak control measures to prevent a SARS-COV-2 outbreak. The prison held 977 prisoners and employed 910 staff at that start of the outbreak.

Results

120 probable and 25 confirmed cases among prisoners and staff were recorded between March and June 2020 during the first outbreak. Over 50% of initial cases among prisoners were on the two wings associated with the index case.

During the second outbreak, 182 confirmed cases were recorded after probable reintroduction from a staff member. Widespread testing identified 145 asymptomatic prisoners, 16.9% of the total prisoner cases. The cohorting units prevented re-infection from new prison admissions and the shielding unit had no COVID-19 infections linked to either outbreak.

Conclusions

Identifying and isolating infected prisoners, cohorting new admissions and shielding vulnerable individuals helped prevent uncontrollable spread of SARS-COV-2. These novel and cost-effective approaches can be implemented in correctional facilities globally.

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Long term miscarriage-related hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Evidence from a United Kingdom population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Miscarriages affect up to a fifth of all pregnancies and are associated with substantial psychological morbidity. However, their relationship with cardiometabolic risk factors is not well known. Therefore, in this study we aimed to estimate the burden of cardiovascular risk factors including diabetes mellitus (type 1 or 2) and hypertension in women with miscarriage compared to women without a record of miscarriage.

METHODS

A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted using IVQIA Medical Research Data UK (IMRD-UK) between January 1995 and May 2016, an anonymised electronic health records database that is representative of the UK population. A total of 86,509, 16-50-year-old women with a record of miscarriage (exposed group) were matched by age, smoking status, and body mass index to 329,865 women without a record of miscarriage (unexposed group). Patients with pre-existing hypertension and diabetes were excluded. Adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for diabetes and hypertension were estimated using multivariable Poisson regression models offsetting for person-years follow-up.

RESULTS

The mean age at cohort entry was 31 years and median follow up was 4.6 (IQR 1.7-9.4) years. During the study period, a total of 792 (IR 1.44 per 1000 years) and 2525 (IR 1.26 per 1000 years) patients developed diabetes in the exposed and unexposed groups, respectively. For hypertension, 1995 (IR 3.73 per 1000 years) and 1605 (IR 3.39 per 1000 years) new diagnoses were recorded in the exposed and unexposed groups, respectively. Compared to unexposed individuals, women with a record miscarriage were more likely to develop diabetes (aIRR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.15-1.36; p<0.001) and hypertension (aIRR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.02-1.12; p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Women diagnosed with miscarriage were at increased risk of developing diabetes mellitus and hypertension. Women with history of miscarriage may benefit from periodic monitoring of their cardiometabolic health.

Development and external validation of prognostic models for COVID-19 to support risk stratification in secondary care

OBJECTIVES

Existing UK prognostic models for patients admitted to the hospital with COVID-19 are limited by reliance on comorbidities, which are under-recorded in secondary care, and lack of imaging data among the candidate predictors. Our aims were to develop and externally validate novel prognostic models for adverse outcomes (death and intensive therapy unit (ITU) admission) in UK secondary care and externally validate the existing 4C score.

DESIGN

Candidate predictors included demographic variables, symptoms, physiological measures, imaging and laboratory tests. Final models used logistic regression with stepwise selection.

SETTING

Model development was performed in data from University Hospitals Birmingham (UHB). External validation was performed in the CovidCollab dataset.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with COVID-19 admitted to UHB January-August 2020 were included.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Death and ITU admission within 28 days of admission.

RESULTS

1040 patients with COVID-19 were included in the derivation cohort; 288 (28%) died and 183 (18%) were admitted to ITU within 28 days of admission. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for mortality was 0.791 (95% CI 0.761 to 0.822) in UHB and 0.767 (95% CI 0.754 to 0.780) in CovidCollab; AUROC for ITU admission was 0.906 (95% CI 0.883 to 0.929) in UHB and 0.811 (95% CI 0.795 to 0.828) in CovidCollab. Models showed good calibration. Addition of comorbidities to candidate predictors did not improve model performance. AUROC for the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium 4C score in the UHB dataset was 0.753 (95% CI 0.720 to 0.785).

CONCLUSIONS

The novel prognostic models showed good discrimination and calibration in derivation and external validation datasets, and performed at least as well as the existing 4C score using only routinely collected patient information. The models can be integrated into electronic medical records systems to calculate each individual patient's probability of death or ITU admission at the time of hospital admission. Implementation of the models and clinical utility should be evaluated.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in the UK: a longitudinal household cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

The approved COVID-19 vaccines have shown great promise in reducing disease transmission and severity of outcomes. However, the success of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout is dependent on public acceptance and willingness to be vaccinated. In this study, we aim to examine how the attitude towards public sector officials and the government impact vaccine willingness. The secondary aim is to understand the impact of ethnicity on vaccine-willingness after we explicitly account for trust in public institutions.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study used data from a UK population based longitudinal household survey (Understanding Society COVID-19 study, Understanding Society: the UK Household Longitudinal Study) between April 2020-January 2021. Data from 22,421 participants in Waves 6 and 7 of the study were included after excluding missing data. Demographic details in addition to previous survey responses relating to public sector/governmental trust were included as covariates in the main analysis. A logit model was produced to describe the association between public sector/governmental mistrust and the willingness for vaccination with interaction terms included to account for ethnicity/socio-economic status.

RESULTS

In support of existing literature, we identified those from BAME groups were more likely to be unwilling to take the COVID-19 vaccine. We found that positive opinions towards public sector officials (OR 2.680: 95% CI 1.888 - 3.805) and the UK government (OR 3.400; 95% CI 2.454-4.712) led to substantive increase in vaccine willingness. Most notably we identified this effect to vary across ethnicity and socio-economic status with those from South Asian background (OR 4.513; 95% CI 1.012-20.123) and possessing a negative attitude towards public officials and the government being the most unwilling to be vaccinated.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggests that trust in public sector officials play a key factor in the low vaccination rates particularly seen in at-risk groups. Given the additional morbidity/mortality risk posed by COVID-19 to those from lower socio-economic or ethnic minority backgrounds, there needs to be urgent public health action to review how to tailor health promotion advice given to these groups and examine methods to improve trust in public sector officials and the government.

Burden of chronic diseases associated with periodontal diseases: a retrospective cohort study using UK primary care data

OBJECTIVES

To identify the association between periodontal diseases (gingivitis and periodontitis) and chronic diseases including cardiovascular disease, cardiometabolic disease, autoimmune disease and mental ill health.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort.

SETTING

IQVIA Medical Research Data-UK between 1 January 1995 and 1 January 2019.

PARTICIPANTS

64 379 adult patients with a general practitioner recorded diagnosis of periodontal disease (exposed patients) were matched to 251 161 unexposed patients by age, sex, deprivation and registration date.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Logistic regression models accounting for covariates of clinical importance were undertaken to estimate the adjusted OR (aOR) of having chronic diseases at baseline in the exposed compared with the unexposed group. Incidence rates for each outcome of interest were then provided followed by the calculation of adjusted HRs using cox regression modelling to describe the risk of outcome development in each group.

RESULTS

The average age at cohort entry was 45 years and the median follow-up was 3.4 years. At study entry, the exposed cohort had an increased likelihood of having a diagnosis of cardiovascular disease (aOR 1.43; 95% CI 1.38 to 1.48), cardiometabolic disease (aOR 1.16; 95% CI 1.13 to 1.19), autoimmune disease (aOR 1.33; 95% CI 1.28 to 1.37) and mental ill health (aOR 1.79; 95% CI 1.75 to 1.83) compared with the unexposed group. During the follow-up of individuals without pre-existing outcomes of interest, the exposed group had an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease (HR 1.18; 95% CI 1.13 to 1.23), cardiometabolic disease (HR 1.07; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.10), autoimmune disease (HR 1.33; 95% CI 1.26 to 1.40) and mental ill health (HR 1.37; 95% CI 1.33 to 1.42) compared with the unexposed group.

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort, periodontal diseases appeared to be associated with an increased risk of developing cardiovascular, cardiometabolic, autoimmune diseases and mental ill health. Periodontal diseases are very common; therefore, an increased risk of other chronic diseases represent a substantial public health burden.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus, glycaemic control, associated therapies and risk of rheumatoid arthritis: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To compare the incident risk of RA in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and to explore the role of glycaemic control and associated therapeutic use in the onset of RA.

METHODS

This study was a retrospective cohort study using patients derived from the IQVIA Medical Research Data (IMRD-UK) database between 1995 and 2019. A total of 224 551 newly diagnosed patients with T2DM were matched to 449 101 patients without T2DM and followed up to assess their risk of RA. Further analyses investigated the effect of glycaemic control, statin use and anti-diabetic drugs on the relationship between T2DM and RA using a time-dependent Cox regression model.

RESULTS

During the study period, the incidence of RA was 8.1 and 10.6 per 10 000 person-years in the exposed and unexposed groups, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) was 0.73 (95% CI 0.67, 0.79). In patients who had not used statins in their lifetime, the aHR was 0.89 (95% CI 0.69, 1.14). When quantifying the effects of glycaemic control, anti-diabetic drugs and statins using time-varying analyses, there was no association with glycaemic control [aHR 1.00 (95% CI 0.99, 1.00)], use of metformin [aHR 1.00 (95% CI 0.82, 1.22)], dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors [DPP4is; aHR 0.94 (95% CI 0.71, 1.24)] and the development of RA. However, statins demonstrated a protective effect for progression of RA in those with T2DM [aHR 0.76 (95% CI 0.66, 0.88)], with evidence of a duration-response relationship.

CONCLUSION

There is a reduced risk of RA in patients with T2DM that may be attributable to the use of statins.

Intimate Partner Violence and the Risk of Developing Fibromyalgia and Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a global public health issue with a variety of ill health consequences associated with exposure. Due to the stimulation of chronic stress and inflammatory pathways, childhood abuse has been associated with the subsequent development of functional syndromes such as fibromyalgia and chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS). Although IPV in women appears to elicit similar biochemical responses, this association has not been tested thoroughly in IPV survivors. These functional syndromes are complex in etiology and any indication of their risk factors would benefit health care professionals managing this population. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the association between exposure to IPV with functional syndromes: fibromyalgia and CFS. We conducted a retrospective open cohort study using "The Heath Improvement Network" database between January 1, 1995 and December 1, 2017. A total of 18,547 women who were exposed to IPV were each matched by age to four controls who were not exposed (n = 74,188). The main outcome measures were the risk of developing fibromyalgia and CFS. These were presented as adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We found that 97 women in the exposed group developed fibromyalgia (incidence rate [IR] = 1.63 per 1,000 person-years) compared to 239 women in the unexposed group (IR = 0.83 per 1,000 person-years). Following adjustment, this translated to an IRR of 1.73 (95% CI = [1.36, 2.22]). Similarly, 19 women developed CFS in the exposed group (IR = 0.32 per 1,000 person-years), compared to 53 in the unexposed group (0.18 per 1,000 person-years), which translates to an aIRR of 1.92 (95% CI = [1.11, 3.33]). Therefore, we have identified an association between a history of IPV in women and the development of these functional syndromes, which may provide more information to inform the biopsychosocial pathway precipitating the development of fibromyalgia and CFS.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Risk of Later Diagnosis of Inflammatory Bowel Disease in Patients With Dermatological Disorders Associated With Inflammatory Bowel Disease

BACKGROUND

Dermatological conditions such as erythema nodosum (EN), pyoderma gangrenosum, Sweet's syndrome, and aphthous stomatitis can occur with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and are considered dermatological extraintestinal manifestations (D-EIMs). Rarely, they may precede IBD. Other common conditions such as psoriasis have also been associated with IBD. This study examined the risk of a subsequent IBD diagnosis in patients presenting with a D-EIM.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study compared patients with D-EIMs and age-/sex-matched patients without D-EIMs. Hazard ratios (HRs) were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, deprivation, comorbidity, smoking, loperamide use, anemia, and lower gastrointestinal symptoms. Logistic regression was used to produce a prediction model for the diagnosis of IBD within 3 years of EN diagnosis.

RESULTS

We matched 7447 patients with D-EIMs (74% female; median age 38 years (interquartile ratio [IQR], 24-65 years) to 29,297 patients without D-EIMs. We observed 131 (1.8%) subsequent IBD diagnoses in patients with D-EIMs compared with 65 (0.2%) in those without D-EIMs. Median time to IBD diagnosis was 205 days (IQR, 44-661 days) in those with D-EIMs and 1594 days (IQR, 693-2841 days) in those without D-EIMs. The adjusted HR for a later diagnosis of IBD was 6.16 (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.53-8.37; P < 0.001), for ulcerative colitis the HR was 3.30 (95% CI, 1.98-5.53; P < 0.001), and for Crohn's disease the HR was 8.54 (95% CI, 5.74-12.70; P < 0.001). Patients with psoriasis had a 34% increased risk of a subsequent IBD diagnosis compared with the matched control patients (HR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.20-1.51; P < 0.001). We included 4043 patients with an incident EN diagnosis in the prediction model cohort, with 87 patients (2.2%) diagnosed with IBD within 3 years. The model had a bias-corrected c-statistic of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.78-0.86).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with D-EIMs have a 6-fold increased risk of a later diagnosis of IBD. Younger age, smoking, low body mass index, anemia, and lower gastrointestinal symptoms were associated with an increased risk of diagnosis of IBD within 3 years in patients with EN.

The risk of COVID-19 in survivors of domestic violence and abuse

A 'shadow pandemic' of domestic violence and abuse (DVA) has emerged secondary to strict public health measures containing the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Many countries have implemented policies to allow the free movement of DVA survivors in attempts to minimise their exposure to abusive environments. Although these policies are well received, as a result there is a possibility of increased COVID-19 transmission within this vulnerable group who are not currently prioritised for vaccination. Therefore, we aimed to compare the risk of developing suspected or confirmed COVID-19 in women (aged over 16 years) exposed to DVA against age-sex-matched unexposed controls, following adjustment for known COVID-19 risk factors. A population-based retrospective open cohort study was undertaken between the 31 January 2020 and 28 February 2021 using 'The Health Improvement Network' database. We identified 10,462 eligible women exposed to DVA who were matched to 41,467 similarly aged unexposed women. Following adjustment for key covariates, women exposed to DVA were at an increased risk (aHR 1.57; 95% CI 1.29-1.90) of suspected/confirmed COVID-19 compared to unexposed women. These findings support previous calls for positive policy action improving DVA surveillance and prioritising survivors for COVID-19 vaccination.

Symptoms, complications and management of long COVID: a review

Globally, there are now over 160 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 3 million deaths. While the majority of infected individuals recover, a significant proportion continue to experience symptoms and complications after their acute illness. Patients with 'long COVID' experience a wide range of physical and mental/psychological symptoms. Pooled prevalence data showed the 10 most prevalent reported symptoms were fatigue, shortness of breath, muscle pain, joint pain, headache, cough, chest pain, altered smell, altered taste and diarrhoea. Other common symptoms were cognitive impairment, memory loss, anxiety and sleep disorders. Beyond symptoms and complications, people with long COVID often reported impaired quality of life, mental health and employment issues. These individuals may require multidisciplinary care involving the long-term monitoring of symptoms, to identify potential complications, physical rehabilitation, mental health and social services support. Resilient healthcare systems are needed to ensure efficient and effective responses to future health challenges.

Trends in the pharmacological management of atrial fibrillation in UK general practice 2008-2018

OBJECTIVE

The pharmacological management of atrial fibrillation (AF) comprises anticoagulation, for stroke prophylaxis, and rate or rhythm control drugs to alleviate symptoms and prevent heart failure. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in the proportion of patients with AF prescribed pharmacological therapies in the UK between 2008 and 2018.

METHODS

Eleven sequential cross-sectional analyses were performed yearly from 2008 to 2018. Data were derived from an anonymised UK primary care database. Outcomes were the proportion of patients with AF prescribed anticoagulants, rhythm and rate control drugs in the whole cohort, those at high risk of stroke and those with coexisting heart failure.

RESULTS

Between 2008 and 2018, the proportion of patients prescribed anticoagulants increased from 45.3% (95% CI 45.0% to 45.7%) to 71.1% (95% CI 70.7% to 71.5%) driven by increased prescription of non-vitamin K antagonist anticoagulants. The proportion of patients prescribed rate control drugs remained constant between 2008 and 2018 (69.3% (95% CI 68.9% to 69.6%) to 71.6% (95% CI 71.2% to 71.9%)). The proportion of patients prescribed rhythm control therapy by general practitioners (GPs) decreased from 9.5% (95% CI 9.3% to 9.7%) to 5.4% (95% CI 5.2% to 5.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

There has been an increase in the proportion of patients with AF appropriately prescribed anticoagulants following National Institute for Health and Care Excellence and European Society of Cardiology guidelines, which correlates with improvements in mortality and stroke outcomes. Beta-blockers appear increasingly favoured over digoxin for rate control. There has been a steady decline in GP prescribing rates for rhythm control drugs, possibly related to concerns over efficacy and safety and increased availability of AF ablation.

Cardio-metabolic outcomes in South Asians compared to White Europeans in the United Kingdom: a matched controlled population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

There appears to be an inequality in the risk of cardio-metabolic disease between those from a South Asian (SA) background when compared to those of White Europeans (WE) descendance, however, this association has not been explored in a large European cohort. This population-based open retrospective cohort explores the incidence of cardio-metabolic disease in those without pre-existing cardiometabolic disease taken from a large UK primary care database from 1st January 2007 to 31st December 2017.

METHODS

A retrospective open cohort matched population-based study using The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database. The outcomes of this study were the incidences of cardio-metabolic events (type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, stroke, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation).

RESULTS

A total of 94,870 SA patients were matched with 189,740 WE patients. SA were at an increased risk of developing: T2DM (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 3.1; 95% CI 2.97-3.23); HTN (1.34; 95% CI: 1.29-1.39); ischaemic heart disease (IHD) (1.81; 95% CI: 1.68-1.93) and heart failure (HF) (1.11; 95% CI: 1.003-1.24). However, they were at a lower risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) (0.53; 95% CI: 0.48-0.59) when compared to WE. Of those of SA origin, the Bangladeshi community were at the greatest risk of T2DM, HTN, IHD and HF, but were at the lowest risk of AF in when compared to Indians and Pakistanis.

CONCLUSION

Considering the high risk of cardio-metabolic diseases in the SA cohort, differential public health measures should be considered in these patients to reduce their risk of disease, which may be furthered tailored depending on their country of origin.

The interaction of ethnicity and deprivation on COVID-19 mortality risk: a retrospective ecological study

Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) populations are at an increased risk of developing COVID-19 and consequentially more severe outcomes compared to White populations. The aim of this study was to quantify how much of the disproportionate disease burden can be attributed to ethnicity and deprivation as well as its interaction. An ecological study was conducted using data derived from the Office for National Statistics data at a Local Authority District (LAD) level in England between 1st March and 17th April 2020. The primary analysis examined how age adjusted COVID-19 mortality depends on ethnicity, deprivation, and the interaction between the two using linear regression. The secondary analysis using spatial regression methods allowed for the quantification of the extent of LAD spillover effect of COVID-19 mortality. We find that in LADs with the highest deprivation quartile, where there is a 1 percentage point increase in "Black-African (regression coefficient 2.86; 95% CI 1.08-4.64)", "Black-Caribbean (9.66: 95% CI 5.25-14.06)" and "Bangladeshi (1.95: 95% CI 1.14-2.76)" communities, there is a significantly higher age-adjusted COVID-19 mortality compared to respective control populations. In addition, the spatial regression results indicated positive significant correlation between the age-adjusted mortality in one LAD and the age-adjusted mortality in a neighbouring LAD, suggesting a spillover effect. Our results suggest targeted public health measures to support those who are deprived and belong to BAME communities as well as to encourage restricted movement between different localities to limit disease propagation.

Reply to comments on 'Cardiovascular and Renal Morbidity in Takayasu Arteritis: A Population-Base Retrospective Cohort Study'

Due to the relatively small number of outcomes in our study, we decided that it was best to be conservative in the number of covariates we included in the Cox regression models. We therefore restricted to age, sex, BMI, Townsend deprivation quintile and smoking status. We provided information on statin use, steroid use and comorbidities in the exposed and unexposed groups in the baseline table.

Nonsteroidal Antiinflammatory Drugs and Susceptibility to COVID-19

Objective

To identify whether active use of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) increases susceptibility to developing suspected or confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) compared to the use of other common analgesics.

Methods

We performed a propensity score–matched cohort study with active comparators, using a large UK primary care data set. The cohort consisted of adult patients age ≥18 years with osteoarthritis (OA) who were followed up from January 30 to July 31, 2020. Patients prescribed an NSAID (excluding topical preparations) were compared to those prescribed either co‐codamol (paracetamol and codeine) or co‐dydramol (paracetamol and dihydrocodeine). A total of 13,202 patients prescribed NSAIDs were identified, compared to 12,457 patients prescribed the comparator drugs. The primary outcome measure was the documentation of suspected or confirmed COVID‐19, and the secondary outcome measure was all‐cause mortality.

Results

During follow‐up, the incidence rates of suspected/confirmed COVID‐19 were 15.4 and 19.9 per 1,000 person‐years in the NSAID‐exposed group and comparator group, respectively. Adjusted hazard ratios for suspected or confirmed COVID‐19 among the unmatched and propensity score–matched OA cohorts, using data from clinical consultations in primary care settings, were 0.82 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.62–1.10) and 0.79 (95% CI 0.57–1.11), respectively, and adjusted hazard ratios for the risk of all‐cause mortality were 0.97 (95% CI 0.75–1.27) and 0.85 (95% CI 0.61–1.20), respectively. There was no effect modification by age or sex.

Conclusion

No increase in the risk of suspected or confirmed COVID‐19 or mortality was observed among patients with OA in a primary care setting who were prescribed NSAIDs as compared to those who received comparator drugs. These results are reassuring and suggest that in the absence of acute illness, NSAIDs can be safely prescribed during the ongoing pandemic.

Postpartum haemorrhage and risk of mental ill health: A population-based longitudinal study using linked primary and secondary care databases

There is a gap in the literature investigating the impact of obstetric complications on subsequent mental ill health outcomes. The aim of this study was to establish the association between post-partum haemorrhage (PPH) and mental ill health. We conducted a retrospective open cohort study utilizing linked primary care (The Health Improvement Network (THIN)) and English secondary care (Hospital Episode Statistics (HES)) databases, from January 1, 1990 to January 31, 2018. A total of 42,327 women were included: 14,109 of them were exposed to PPH during the study period and 28,218 unexposed controls were matched for age and date of delivery. Hazard ratios (HRs) for mental illness among women with and without exposure to PPH were estimated after controlling for covariates. Women who had had PPH were at an increased risk of developing postnatal depression (adjusted HR: 1·10, 95%CI: 1·01-1·21) and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) (adjusted HR: 1·17, 95%CI: 0·73-1·89) compared to women unexposed to PPH. When restricting the follow-up to the first year after childbirth, the adjusted HR for PTSD was 3·44 (95% CI 1·31-9·03). No increase in the overall risk was observed for other mental illnesses, including depression (adjusted HR: 0·94, 95%CI: 0·87-1·01), severe mental illness (adjusted HR: 0·65, 95%CI: 0·40-1·08, p = 0·239) and anxiety (adjusted HR: 0·99, 95%CI: 0·90-1·09). PPH is associated with a significant increase in the risk of developing postnatal depression and PTSD in the first year after delivery. Active monitoring for mental illness should form an integral part of the follow-up in women who suffered a PPH.