Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Blood concentrations of metals, essential trace elements, rare earth elements and other chemicals in the general adult population of Barcelona: Distribution and associated sociodemographic factors

BACKGROUND

Very little information is available on the population distribution and on sociodemographic predictors of body concentrations of rare earth elements (REE) and other chemicals used in the manufacturing of high-tech devices.

OBJECTIVES

To analyze the distribution and associated sociodemographic factors of blood concentrations of chemical elements (including some metals, essential trace elements, rare earth elements and other minority elements) in a representative sample of the general population of Barcelona (Spain).

METHODS

A sample of participants in the Barcelona Health Survey of 2016 (N = 240) were interviewed face-to-face, gave blood, and underwent a physical exam. Concentrations of 50 chemical elements were analyzed by ICP-MS in whole blood samples.

RESULTS

All 50 chemicals studied, including 26 REE and minority elements, were detected. Lead, silver, arsenic, cadmium, mercury, antimony, strontium, thallium and six essential trace elements were detected in more than 70% of the population. The most frequently detected REE and minority elements were europium (62%), thulium (56%), gold (41%), indium (31%), ruthenium (24%), and tantalum (20%). Less affluent occupational social classes had higher percentages of detection of some REE. Median concentrations of silver, arsenic, cadmium and mercury were: 0.091, 3.01, 0.309, and 3.33 ng/mL, respectively. Women had lower median concentrations than men of lead (1.47 vs. 2.04 μg/dL, respectively), iron and zinc, and higher concentrations of copper and manganese. The influence of sociodemographic characteristics on chemical concentrations differed by sex.

CONCLUSIONS

While well-known contaminants as lead, mercury, cadmium, or arsenic were detected in the majority of the population, numerous individuals had also detectable concentrations of chemicals as europium, indium, thulium, or gold. Sociodemographic and physical characteristics (sex, age, social class, weight change) influenced concentrations of some chemicals.

Prepandemic personal concentrations of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and other pollutants: Specific and combined effects on the incidence of COVID-19 disease and SARS-CoV-2 infection

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the specific and combined effects of personal concentrations of some per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), other persistent organic pollutants (POPs), and chemical elements -measured in individuals' blood several years before the pandemic- on the development of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 disease in the general population.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study in 240 individuals from the general population of Barcelona. PFAS, other POPs, and chemical elements were measured in plasma, serum, and whole blood samples, respectively, collected in 2016-2017. PFAS were analyzed by liquid chromatography-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry. SARS-CoV-2 infection was detected by rRT-PCR in nasopharyngeal swabs and/or antibody serology in blood samples collected in 2020-2021.

RESULTS

No individual PFAS nor their mixtures were significantly associated with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity or COVID-19 disease. Previously identified mixtures of POPs and elements (Porta et al., 2023) remained significantly associated with seropositivity and COVID-19 when adjusted for PFAS (all OR > 4 or p < 0.05). Nine chemicals comprised mixtures associated with COVID-19: thallium, ruthenium, lead, benzo[b]fluoranthene, DDD, other DDT-related compounds, manganese, tantalum, and aluminium. And nine chemicals comprised the mixtures more consistently associated with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity: thallium, ruthenium, lead, benzo[b]fluoranthene, DDD, gold, and (protectively) selenium, indium, and iron.

CONCLUSIONS

The PFAS studied were not associated with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity or COVID-19. The results confirm the associations between personal blood concentrations of some POPs and chemical elements and the risk of COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 infection in what remains the only prospective and population-based cohort study on the topic. Mixtures of POPs and chemical elements may contribute to explain the heterogeneity in the risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 in the general population.

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.

Genetic Susceptibility to Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Risk for Pancreatic Cancer: Mendelian Randomization

BACKGROUND

There are conflicting data on whether nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with susceptibility to pancreatic cancer. Using Mendelian randomization (MR), we investigated the relationship between genetic predisposition to NAFLD and risk for pancreatic cancer.

METHODS

Data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) within the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium (PanScan; cases n = 5,090, controls n = 8,733) and the Pancreatic Cancer Case Control Consortium (PanC4; cases n = 4,163, controls n = 3,792) were analyzed. We used data on 68 genetic variants with four different MR methods [inverse variance weighting (IVW), MR-Egger, simple median, and penalized weighted median] separately to predict genetic heritability of NAFLD. We then assessed the relationship between each of the four MR methods and pancreatic cancer risk, using logistic regression to calculate ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusting for PC risk factors, including obesity and diabetes.

RESULTS

No association was found between genetically predicted NAFLD and pancreatic cancer risk in the PanScan or PanC4 samples [e.g., PanScan, IVW OR, 1.04; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.88-1.22; MR-Egger OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.65-1.21; PanC4, IVW OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.90-1.27; MR-Egger OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.67-1.28]. None of the four MR methods indicated an association between genetically predicted NAFLD and pancreatic cancer risk in either sample.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic predisposition to NAFLD is not associated with pancreatic cancer risk.

IMPACT

Given the close relationship between NAFLD and metabolic conditions, it is plausible that any association between NAFLD and pancreatic cancer might reflect host metabolic perturbations (e.g., obesity, diabetes, or metabolic syndrome) and does not necessarily reflect a causal relationship between NAFLD and pancreatic cancer.

Supporting legislative action: Urinary levels of phthalates and phenols among influencers in the 'Plastics in the spotlight' advocacy initiative

BACKGROUND

Society-wide initiatives to prevent human exposure to plastic residues include laws and policies. Such measures require citizens' support, which can be increased by honest advocacy and pedagogic projects. These efforts must have a scientific basis.

OBJECTIVE

To assist the 'Plastics in the spotlight' advocacy initiative raise awareness among the general public of the presence of plastic residues in the human body, and to increase citizens' support for legislation on plastic control in the European Union.

METHODS

Spot urine samples of 69 volunteers with cultural and political influence from Spain, Portugal, Latvia, Slovenia, Belgium, and Bulgaria were collected. Concentrations of 30 phthalate metabolites and phenols were determined through a high-performance liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry and ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry, respectively.

RESULTS

At least 18 compounds were detected in all urine samples. The maximum number of compounds detected per participant was 23, and the mean, 20.5. Phthalates were detected more frequently than phenols. Median concentrations were highest for monoethyl phthalate (41.6 ng/mL, adjusted for specific gravity), and maximum concentrations were highest for mono-iso-butyl phthalate (1345.1 ng/mL), oxybenzone (1915.1 ng/mL), and triclosan (949.6 ng/mL). Most reference values were not exceeded. Women had higher concentrations of the 14 phthalate metabolites and oxybenzone than men. Urinary concentrations were not correlated with age.

DISCUSSION

The study had three main limitations: method of subject selection (volunteers), small sample size, and limited data on determinants of exposure. Studies on volunteers do not pretend to be representative of the general population and are no substitute for biomonitoring studies in representative samples of the populations of interest. Studies as ours can only illustrate the existence and some aspects of the problem, and can raise awareness among citizens concerned by the evidence that the studies provide in a group of subjects who are humanly appealing.

CONCLUSIONS

The results illustrate that human exposure to phthalates and phenols is widespread. All countries appeared to be similarly exposed to these contaminants, with higher levels in females. Most concentrations did not exceed reference values. The effects of this study on the objectives of the 'Plastics in the spotlight' advocacy initiative deserve a specific analysis from policy science.

Individual blood concentrations of persistent organic pollutants and chemical elements, and COVID-19: A prospective cohort study in Barcelona

BACKGROUND

There is wide, largely unexplained heterogeneity in immunological and clinical responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Numerous environmental chemicals, such as persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and chemical elements (including some metals, essential trace elements, rare earth elements, and minority elements), are immunomodulatory and cause a range of adverse clinical events. There are no prospective studies on the effects of such substances on the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the influence of blood concentrations of POPs and elements measured several years before the pandemic on the development of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 in individuals from the general population.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study in 154 individuals from the general population of Barcelona. POPs and elements were measured in blood samples collected in 2016-2017. SARS-CoV-2 infection was detected by rRT-PCR in nasopharyngeal swabs and/or by antibody serology using eighteen isotype-antigen combinations measured in blood samples collected in 2020-2021. We analyzed the associations between concentrations of the contaminants and SARS-CoV-2 infection and development of COVID-19, taking into account personal habits and living conditions during the pandemic.

RESULTS

Several historically prevalent POPs, as well as arsenic, cadmium, mercury, and zinc, were not associated with COVID-19, nor with SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, DDE (adjusted OR = 5.0 [95% CI: 1.2-21]), lead (3.9 [1.0-15]), thallium (3.4 [1.0-11]), and ruthenium (5.0 [1.8-14]) were associated with COVID-19, as were tantalum, benzo(b)fluoranthene, DDD, and manganese. Thallium (3.8 [1.6-8.9]), and ruthenium (2.9 [1.3-6.7]) were associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, and so were lead, gold, and (protectively) iron and selenium. We identified mixtures of up to five substances from several chemical groups, with all substances independently associated to the outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide the first prospective and population-based evidence of an association between individual concentrations of some contaminants and COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 infection. POPs and elements may contribute to explain the heterogeneity in the development of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 in the general population. If the associations are confirmed as causal, means are available to mitigate the corresponding risks.

Exposures to pesticides and risk of cancer: Evaluation of recent epidemiological evidence in humans and paths forward

Knowledge of the role in cancer etiology of environmental exposures as pesticides is a prerequisite for primary prevention. We review 63 epidemiological studies on exposure to pesticides and cancer risk in humans published from 2017 to 2021, with emphasis on new findings, methodological approaches, and gaps in the existing literature. While much of the recent evidence suggests causal relationships between pesticide exposure and cancer, the strongest evidence exists for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and colorectal cancer (CRC), diseases in which the observed associations were consistent across several studies, including high-quality prospective studies and those using biomarkers for exposure assessment, with some observing dose-response relationships. Though high-quality studies have been published since the IARC monograph on organophosphate insecticides in 2017, there are still gaps in the literature on carcinogenic evidence in humans for a large number of pesticides. To further knowledge, we suggest leveraging new techniques and methods to increase sensitivity and precision of exposure assessment, incorporate multi-omics data, and investigate more thoroughly exposure to chemical mixtures. There is also a strong need for better and larger population-based cohort studies that include younger and nonoccupationally exposed individuals, particularly during developmental periods of susceptibility. Though the existing evidence has limitations, as always in science, there is sufficient evidence to implement policies and regulatory action that limit pesticide exposure in humans and, hence, further prevent a significant burden of cancers.

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development

Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1-6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5-19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m-2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on breast cancer screening indicators in a Spanish population-based program: a cohort study

Background:

To assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on performance indicators in the population-based breast cancer screening program of Parc de Salut Mar (PSMAR), Barcelona, Spain.

Methods:

We conducted a before-and-after, study to evaluate participation, recall, false positives, the cancer detection rate, and cancer characteristics in our screening population from March 2020 to March 2021 compared with the four previous rounds (2012–2019). Using multilevel logistic regression models, we estimated the adjusted odds ratios (aORs) of each of the performance indicators for the COVID-19 period, controlling by type of screening (prevalent or incident), socioeconomic index, family history of breast cancer, and menopausal status. We analyzed 144,779 invitations from 47,571women.

Results:

During the COVID-19 period, the odds of participation were lower in first-time invitees (aOR = 0.90 [95% CI = 0.84–0.96]) and in those who had previously participated regularly and irregularly (aOR = 0.63 [95% CI = 0.59–0.67] and aOR = 0.95 [95% CI = 0.86–1.05], respectively). Participation showed a modest increase in women not attending any of the previous rounds (aOR = 1.10 [95% CI = 1.01–1.20]). The recall rate decreased in both prevalent and incident screening (aOR = 0.74 [95% CI = 0.56–0.99] and aOR = 0.80 [95% CI = 0.68–0.95], respectively). False positives also decreased in both groups (prevalent aOR = 0.92 [95% CI = 0.66–1.28] and incident aOR = 0.72 [95% CI = 0.59–0.88]). No significant differences were observed in compliance with recall (OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 0.76–2.23), cancer detection rate (aOR = 0.91 [95% CI = 0.69–1.18]), or cancer stages.

Conclusions:

The COVID-19 pandemic negatively affected screening attendance, especially in previous participants and newcomers. We found a reduction in recall and false positives and no marked differences in cancer detection, indicating the robustness of the program. There is a need for further evaluations of interval cancers and potential diagnostic delays.

Funding:

This study has received funding by grants PI19/00007 and PI21/00058, funded by Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) and cofunded by the European Union and Grant RD21/0016/0020 funded by Instituto de Salud Carlos III and by the European Union NextGenerationEU, Mecanismo para la Recuperación y la Resiliencia (MRR).

Assessing response, remission and treatment resistance in patients with Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder with and without Tic Disorders: results from a multicenter study

Introduction

Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD) and Tic Disorder (TD) are two highly disabling, comorbid and difficult-to-treat conditions. DSM-5 acknowledged a new “tic-related” specifier for OCD, i.e., Obsessive-Compulsive Tic-related Disorder (OCTD), which may show poor treatment response.

Objectives

The aim of the present study was to evaluate rates and clinical correlates of response, remission and resistance to treatment in a large multicentre sample of OCD patients with versus without tics.

Methods

398 patients with a DSM-5 diagnosis of OCD with and without comorbid TD was assessed from ten psychiatric departments across Italy. Treatment response profiles in the whole sample were analysed comparing the rates of response, remission and treatment-resistance as well as related clinical features. Multivariate logistic regressions were performed to highlight possible treatment response related factors.

Results

Later ages of onset of TD and OCD were found in the remission group. Moreover, significantly higher rates of psychiatric comorbidities, TD, and lifetime suicidal ideation and attempts were associated to the treatment-resistant group, with larger degrees of perceived worsened quality of life and family involvement.

Conclusions

While remission was related to later ages of OCD and TD onset, specific clinical factors, such as early onset and presence of psychiatric comorbidities and concomitant TD, predicted a worse treatment response, with a significant impairment in quality of life for both patients and their caregivers. These findings suggest a worse profile of treatment response for patients with OCTD.

Disclosure

No significant relationships.

Plasma concentrations of persistent organic pollutants and pancreatic cancer risk

BACKGROUND

Findings and limitations of previous studies on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and pancreatic cancer risk support conducting further research in prospective cohorts.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Participants were 513 pancreatic cancer cases and 1020 matched controls. Concentrations of 22 POPs were measured in plasma collected at baseline.

RESULTS

Some associations were observed at higher concentrations of p, p'-DDT, trans-nonachlor, β-hexachlorocyclohexane and the sum of six organochlorine pesticides and of 16 POPs. The odds ratio (OR) for the upper quartile of trans-nonachlor was 1.55 (95% confidence interval 1.06-2.26; P for trend = 0.025). Associations were stronger in the groups predefined as most valid (participants having fasted >6 h, with microscopic diagnostic confirmation, normal weight, and never smokers), and as most relevant (follow-up ≥10 years). Among participants having fasted >6 h, the ORs were relevant for 10 of 11 exposures. Higher ORs were also observed among cases with microscopic confirmation than in cases with a clinical diagnosis, and among normal-weight participants than in the rest of participants. Among participants with a follow-up ≥10 years, estimates were higher than in participants with a shorter follow-up (for trans-nonachlor: OR = 2.14, 1.01 to 4.53, P for trend = 0.035). Overall, trans-nonachlor, three PCBs and the two sums of POPs were the exposures most clearly associated with pancreatic cancer risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Individually or in combination, most of the 22 POPs analysed did not or only moderately increased the risk of pancreatic cancer.

Prevalence and features of delirium in older patients admitted to rehabilitation facilities: a multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Delirium is thought to be common across various settings of care; however, still little research has been conducted in rehabilitation.

AIM

We investigated the prevalence of delirium, its features and motor subtypes in older patients admitted to rehabilitation facilities during the three editions of the "Delirium Day project".

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study in which 1237 older patients (age ≥ 65 years old) admitted to 50 Italian rehabilitation wards during the three editions of the "Delirium Day project" (2015 to 2017) were included. Delirium was evaluated through the 4AT and its motor subtype with the Delirium Motor Subtype Scale.

RESULTS

Delirium was detected in 226 patients (18%), and the most recurrent motor subtype was mixed (37%), followed by hypoactive (26%), hyperactive (21%) and non-motor one (16%). In a multivariate Poisson regression model with robust variance, factors associated with delirium were: disability in basic (PR 1.48, 95%CI: 1.17-1.9, p value 0.001) and instrumental activities of daily living (PR 1.58, 95%CI: 1.08-2.32, p value 0.018), dementia (PR 2.10, 95%CI: 1.62-2.73, p value < 0.0001), typical antipsychotics (PR 1.47, 95%CI: 1.10-1.95, p value 0.008), antidepressants other than selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (PR 1.3, 95%CI: 1.02-1.66, p value 0.035), and physical restraints (PR 2.37, 95%CI: 1.68-3.36, p value < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

This multicenter study reports that 2 out 10 patients admitted to rehabilitations had delirium on the index day. Mixed delirium was the most prevalent subtype. Delirium was associated with unmodifiable (dementia, disability) and modifiable (physical restraints, medications) factors. Identification of these factors should prompt specific interventions aimed to prevent or mitigate delirium.

Anomalous location of intracranial vessels in adults

Anomalous intracranial vessels are not uncommon, and this finding is not always associated with arteriovenous malformations. Other conditions such as anomalous connections between arteries or phlebitc patterns can also present as vessels with abnormal intracranial locations. Noninvasive diagnosis is important to determine whether to do more invasive tests such as cerebral digital subtraction angiography or to estimate the risk of bleeding in arteriovenous malformations and therefore to evaluate the need for endovascular/surgical treatment. In this paper, we present an algorithm for the differential diagnosis of anomalous intracranial vessels according to their location (intra/extra-axial) and function (whether the vessels are arterialized). Moreover, we analyze the important points of the angioarchitecture of the principal arteriovenous malformations with risk of intracranial bleeding, such as pial arteriovenous malformations and dural fistulas.

The association between low skeletal muscle mass and delirium: results from the nationwide multi-centre Italian Delirium Day 2017

Introduction

Delirium and sarcopenia are common, although underdiagnosed, geriatric syndromes. Several pathological mechanisms can link delirium and low skeletal muscle mass, but few studies have investigated their association. We aimed to investigate (1) the association between delirium and low skeletal muscle mass and (2) the possible role of calf circumference mass in finding cases with delirium.

Methods

The analyses were conducted employing the cross-sectional “Delirium Day” initiative, on patient 65 years and older admitted to acute hospital medical wards, emergency departments, rehabilitation wards, nursing homes and hospices in Italy in 2017. Delirium was diagnosed as a 4 + score at the 4-AT scale. Low skeletal muscle mass was operationally defined as calf circumference ≤ 34 cm in males and ≤ 33 cm in females. Logistic regression models were used to investigate the association between low skeletal muscle mass and delirium. The discriminative ability of calf circumference was evaluated using non-parametric ROC analyses.

Results

A sample of 1675 patients was analyzed. In total, 73.6% of participants had low skeletal muscle mass and 24.1% exhibited delirium. Low skeletal muscle mass and delirium showed an independent association (OR: 1.50; 95% CI 1.09–2.08). In the subsample of patients without a diagnosis of dementia, the inclusion of calf circumference in a model based on age and sex significantly improved its discriminative accuracy [area under the curve (AUC) 0.69 vs 0.57, p < 0.001].

Discussion and conclusion

Low muscle mass is independently associated with delirium. In patients without a previous diagnosis of dementia, calf circumference may help to better identify those who develop delirium.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40520-021-01950-8.

Timing of Toenail Collection and Concentrations of Metals in Pancreatic Cancer. Evidence Against Disease Progression Bias

Trace elements such as cadmium, arsenic, zinc or selenium increase or decrease risk of a wide range of human diseases. Their levels in toenails may provide a measure of mid-term intake of trace elements for studies in humans. However, in biologically and clinically aggressive diseases as pancreatic cancer, the progression of the disease could modify such concentrations and produce reverse causation bias. The aim was to analyze the influence of specific time intervals between several clinical events and the collection of toenails upon concentrations of trace elements in patients with pancreatic cancer. Subjects were 118 incident cases of pancreatic adenocarcinoma prospectively recruited in eastern Spain. Toenails were collected at cancer diagnosis, and soon thereafter interviews were conducted. Information on cancer signs and symptoms was obtained from medical records and patient interviews. Levels of 12 trace elements were determined in toenail samples by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. General linear models adjusting for potential confounders were applied to analyze relations between log concentrations of trace elements and the time intervals, including the interval from first symptom of cancer to toenail collection (iST). Toenail concentrations of the 12 trace elements were weakly or not influenced by the progression of the disease or the diagnostic procedures. Concentrations of aluminum were slightly higher in subjects with a longer iST (age, sex and stage adjusted geometric means: 11.44 vs. 7.75 µg/g for iST > 120 days vs. ≤ 40 days). There was a weak inverse relation of iST with concentrations of zinc and selenium (maximum differences of about 20 and 0.08 µg/g, respectively). Conclusions: concentrations of the trace elements were weakly or not influenced by the development of the disease before toenail collection. Only concentrations of aluminum increased slightly with increasing iST, whereas levels of zinc and selenium decreased weakly. Even in an aggressive disease as pancreatic cancer, toenail concentrations of trace elements may provide a valid measure of mid-term intake of trace elements, unaffected by clinical events and disease progression.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12403-021-00436-2.

Hepcidin-regulating iron metabolism genes and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: a pathway analysis of genome-wide association studies

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies have suggested positive associations for iron and red meat intake with risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Inherited pathogenic variants in genes involved in the hepcidin-regulating iron metabolism pathway are known to cause iron overload and hemochromatosis.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to determine whether common genetic variation in the hepcidin-regulating iron metabolism pathway is associated with PDAC.

METHODS

We conducted a pathway analysis of the hepcidin-regulating genes using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) summary statistics generated from 4 genome-wide association studies in 2 large consortium studies using the summary data-based adaptive rank truncated product method. Our population consisted of 9253 PDAC cases and 12,525 controls of European descent. Our analysis included 11 hepcidin-regulating genes [bone morphogenetic protein 2 (BMP2), bone morphogenetic protein 6 (BMP6), ferritin heavy chain 1 (FTH1), ferritin light chain (FTL), hepcidin (HAMP), homeostatic iron regulator (HFE), hemojuvelin (HJV), nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 (NRF2), ferroportin 1 (SLC40A1), transferrin receptor 1 (TFR1), and transferrin receptor 2 (TFR2)] and their surrounding genomic regions (±20 kb) for a total of 412 SNPs.

RESULTS

The hepcidin-regulating gene pathway was significantly associated with PDAC (P = 0.002), with the HJV, TFR2, TFR1, BMP6, and HAMP genes contributing the most to the association.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support that genetic susceptibility related to the hepcidin-regulating gene pathway is associated with PDAC risk and suggest a potential role of iron metabolism in pancreatic carcinogenesis. Further studies are needed to evaluate effect modification by intake of iron-rich foods on this association.

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

BACKGROUND

Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.

FINDINGS

The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings.

FUNDING

WHO.

588Plasma concentrations of persistent organic pollutants and pancreatic cancer risk

Background

Findings and limitations of previous studies on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and pancreatic cancer risk support conducting further research in prospective cohorts.

Objective

To investigate the association between plasma concentrations of selected POPs and pancreatic cancer risk.

Methods

Prospective case-control study nested within the EPIC cohort. Participants were 513 pancreatic cancer cases and 1020 matched controls. Concentrations of 22 POPs (organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls, and polybrominated diphenyl ethers) were measured in plasma collected at baseline by GC-MS/MS.

Results

Some, generally moderate effects were observed at higher concentrations of p,p’-DDT, trans-nonachlor, β-hexachlorocyclohexane, and the sum of 6 organochlorine pesticides and of 16 POPs. The odds ratio (OR) for the upper quartile of trans-nonachlor was 1.55 (95% confidence interval 1.06 to 2.26; P for trend=0.025). Associations were stronger in the groups predefined as most valid or relevant. Among participants having fasted &gt;6 hours at blood collection, the ORs were significant for 10 of 11 exposure categories. Higher ORs were also observed among cases with microscopic confirmation than in cases with a clinical diagnosis. Higher ORs were also observed among normal-weight participants, with relevant estimates for all 11 exposure categories. Among participants with a follow-up ≥10 years, estimates were also higher (e.g., for trans-nonachlor: OR = 2.14, 1.01 to 4.53, P for trend=0.035). Overall, trans-nonachlor, 3 PCBs, and the 2 sums of POPs were the exposures more clearly associated with pancreatic cancer risk.

Conclusions

A few moderately increased risks were apparent for the highest concentrations of certain POPs, sometimes with a dose-response relationship.

Smoking Modifies Pancreatic Cancer Risk Loci on 2q21.3

Germline variation and smoking are independently associated with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). We conducted genome-wide smoking interaction analysis of PDAC using genotype data from four previous genome-wide association studies in individuals of European ancestry (7,937 cases and 11,774 controls). Examination of expression quantitative trait loci data from the Genotype-Tissue Expression Project followed by colocalization analysis was conducted to determine whether there was support for common SNP(s) underlying the observed associations. Statistical tests were two sided and P < 5 × 10-8 was considered statistically significant. Genome-wide significant evidence of qualitative interaction was identified on chr2q21.3 in intron 5 of the transmembrane protein 163 (TMEM163) and upstream of the cyclin T2 (CCNT2). The most significant SNP using the Empirical Bayes method, in this region that included 45 significantly associated SNPs, was rs1818613 [per allele OR in never smokers 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.82-0.93; former smokers 1.00, 95% CI, 0.91-1.07; current smokers 1.25, 95% CI 1.12-1.40, P interaction = 3.08 × 10-9). Examination of the Genotype-Tissue Expression Project data demonstrated an expression quantitative trait locus in this region for TMEM163 and CCNT2 in several tissue types. Colocalization analysis supported a shared SNP, rs842357, in high linkage disequilibrium with rs1818613 (r 2 = 0. 94) driving both the observed interaction and the expression quantitative trait loci signals. Future studies are needed to confirm and understand the differential biologic mechanisms by smoking status that contribute to our PDAC findings. SIGNIFICANCE: This large genome-wide interaction study identifies a susceptibility locus on 2q21.3 that significantly modified PDAC risk by smoking status, providing insight into smoking-associated PDAC, with implications for prevention.

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.

Characterization of hand forces exerted during non-powered hospital bed pushing and pulling tasks

Accurate assessment of biomechanical risk associated with pushing/pulling tasks represents a challenging issue, especially in the health system where personnel are often required to maneuver beds and carts. Most studies in this field have been carried out in the laboratory, while few data have been collected under actual working conditions. This study aims to characterize the forces exerted during non-powered hospital bed maneuvering. Twenty participants were required to move a bed (equipped with a customized handlebar to measure exerted forces) along an actual hospital path including straight, turn and maneuver phases. The results show that higher forces are associated with the initial phase (peak and mean values 222 and 68 N) while the straight, turn and maneuvering phases required similar (lower) efforts. The combined effect of left, right and transversal forces suggests that the trunk of the operator might experience axial rotation, thus calling for further investigations of this aspect.

Mendelian Randomization Analysis of n-6 Polyunsaturated Fatty Acid Levels and Pancreatic Cancer Risk

BACKGROUND

Whether circulating polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) levels are associated with pancreatic cancer risk is uncertain. Mendelian randomization (MR) represents a study design using genetic instruments to better characterize the relationship between exposure and outcome.

METHODS

We utilized data from genome-wide association studies within the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium and Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium, involving approximately 9,269 cases and 12,530 controls of European descent, to evaluate associations between pancreatic cancer risk and genetically predicted plasma n-6 PUFA levels. Conventional MR analyses were performed using individual-level and summary-level data.

RESULTS

Using genetic instruments, we did not find evidence of associations between genetically predicted plasma n-6 PUFA levels and pancreatic cancer risk [estimates per one SD increase in each PUFA-specific weighted genetic score using summary statistics: linoleic acid odds ratio (OR) = 1.00, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.98-1.02; arachidonic acid OR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.99-1.01; and dihomo-gamma-linolenic acid OR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.87-1.02]. The OR estimates remained virtually unchanged after adjustment for covariates, using individual-level data or summary statistics, or stratification by age and sex.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that variations of genetically determined plasma n-6 PUFA levels are not associated with pancreatic cancer risk.

IMPACT

These results suggest that modifying n-6 PUFA levels through food sources or supplementation may not influence risk of pancreatic cancer.

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

BACKGROUND

Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents.

METHODS

For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5-19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence.

FINDINGS

We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9-10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes-gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both-occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls.

INTERPRETATION

The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme, EU.

Influence of KRAS mutations, persistent organic pollutants, and trace elements on survival from pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Reasons why pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) continues to have poor survival are only partly known. No previous studies have analyzed the combined influence of KRAS mutations, persistent organic pollutants (POPs), and trace elements upon survival in PDAC or in any other human cancer.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the individual and combined influence of KRAS mutations, POPs, and trace elements upon survival from PDAC.

METHODS

Incident cases of PDAC (n = 185) were prospectively identified in five hospitals in Eastern Spain in 1992-1995 and interviewed face-to-face during hospital admission. KRAS mutational status was determined from tumour tissue through polymerase chain reaction and artificial restriction fragment length polymorphism. Blood and toenail samples were obtained before treatment. Serum concentrations of POPs were analyzed by high-resolution gas chromatography with electron-capture detection. Concentrations of 12 trace elements were determined in toenail samples by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess prognostic associations.

RESULTS

Patients with a KRAS mutated tumor had a 70% higher risk of early death than patients with a KRAS wild-type PDAC (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.7, p = 0.026), adjusting for age, sex, and tumor stage. KRAS mutational status was only modestly and not statistically significantly associated with survival when further adjusting by treatment or by treatment intention. The beneficial effects of treatment remained unaltered when KRAS mutational status was taken into account, and treatment did not appear to be less effective in the subgroup of patients with a KRAS mutated tumor. POPs did not materially influence survival: the adjusted HR of the highest POP tertiles was near unity for all POPs. When considering the joint effect on survival of POPs and KRAS, patients with KRAS mutated tumors had modest and nonsignificant HRs (most HRs around 1.3 to 1.4). Higher concentrations of lead, cadmium, arsenic, vanadium, and aluminium were associated with better survival. When KRAS status, POPs, and trace elements were simultaneously considered along with treatment, only the latter was statistically significantly related to survival.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study based on molecular, clinical, and environmental epidemiology, KRAS mutational status, POPs, and trace elements were not adversely related to PDAC survival when treatment was simultaneously considered; only treatment was independently related to survival. The lack of adverse prognostic effects of POPs and metals measured at the time of diagnosis provide scientific and clinical reassurance on the effects of such exposures upon survival of patients with PDAC. The weak association with KRAS mutations contributes to the scant knowledge on the clinical implications of a genetic alteration highly frequent in PDAC.

A Transcriptome-Wide Association Study Identifies Novel Candidate Susceptibility Genes for Pancreatic Cancer

BACKGROUND

Although 20 pancreatic cancer susceptibility loci have been identified through genome-wide association studies in individuals of European ancestry, much of its heritability remains unexplained and the genes responsible largely unknown.

METHODS

To discover novel pancreatic cancer risk loci and possible causal genes, we performed a pancreatic cancer transcriptome-wide association study in Europeans using three approaches: FUSION, MetaXcan, and Summary-MulTiXcan. We integrated genome-wide association studies summary statistics from 9040 pancreatic cancer cases and 12 496 controls, with gene expression prediction models built using transcriptome data from histologically normal pancreatic tissue samples (NCI Laboratory of Translational Genomics [n = 95] and Genotype-Tissue Expression v7 [n = 174] datasets) and data from 48 different tissues (Genotype-Tissue Expression v7, n = 74-421 samples).

RESULTS

We identified 25 genes whose genetically predicted expression was statistically significantly associated with pancreatic cancer risk (false discovery rate < .05), including 14 candidate genes at 11 novel loci (1p36.12: CELA3B; 9q31.1: SMC2, SMC2-AS1; 10q23.31: RP11-80H5.9; 12q13.13: SMUG1; 14q32.33: BTBD6; 15q23: HEXA; 15q26.1: RCCD1; 17q12: PNMT, CDK12, PGAP3; 17q22: SUPT4H1; 18q11.22: RP11-888D10.3; and 19p13.11: PGPEP1) and 11 at six known risk loci (5p15.33: TERT, CLPTM1L, ZDHHC11B; 7p14.1: INHBA; 9q34.2: ABO; 13q12.2: PDX1; 13q22.1: KLF5; and 16q23.1: WDR59, CFDP1, BCAR1, TMEM170A). The association for 12 of these genes (CELA3B, SMC2, and PNMT at novel risk loci and TERT, CLPTM1L, INHBA, ABO, PDX1, KLF5, WDR59, CFDP1, and BCAR1 at known loci) remained statistically significant after Bonferroni correction.

CONCLUSIONS

By integrating gene expression and genotype data, we identified novel pancreatic cancer risk loci and candidate functional genes that warrant further investigation.

Genome-Wide Association Study Data Reveal Genetic Susceptibility to Chronic Inflammatory Intestinal Diseases and Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma Risk

Registry-based epidemiologic studies suggest associations between chronic inflammatory intestinal diseases and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). As genetic susceptibility contributes to a large proportion of chronic inflammatory intestinal diseases, we hypothesize that the genomic regions surrounding established genome-wide associated variants for these chronic inflammatory diseases are associated with PDAC. We examined the association between PDAC and genomic regions (±500 kb) surrounding established common susceptibility variants for ulcerative colitis, Crohn's disease, inflammatory bowel disease, celiac disease, chronic pancreatitis, and primary sclerosing cholangitis. We analyzed summary statistics from genome-wide association studies data for 8,384 cases and 11,955 controls of European descent from two large consortium studies using the summary data-based adaptive rank truncated product method to examine the overall association of combined genomic regions for each inflammatory disease group. Combined genomic susceptibility regions for ulcerative colitis, Crohn disease, inflammatory bowel disease, and chronic pancreatitis were associated with PDAC at P values < 0.05 (0.0040, 0.0057, 0.011, and 3.4 × 10-6, respectively). After excluding the 20 PDAC susceptibility regions (±500 kb) previously identified by GWAS, the genomic regions for ulcerative colitis, Crohn disease, and inflammatory bowel disease remained associated with PDAC (P = 0.0029, 0.0057, and 0.0098, respectively). Genomic regions for celiac disease (P = 0.22) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (P = 0.078) were not associated with PDAC. Our results support the hypothesis that genomic regions surrounding variants associated with inflammatory intestinal diseases, particularly, ulcerative colitis, Crohn disease, inflammatory bowel disease, and chronic pancreatitis are associated with PDAC. SIGNIFICANCE: The joint effects of common variants in genomic regions containing susceptibility loci for inflammatory bowel disease and chronic pancreatitis are associated with PDAC and may provide insights to understanding pancreatic cancer etiology.

Genome-Wide Gene-Diabetes and Gene-Obesity Interaction Scan in 8,255 Cases and 11,900 Controls from PanScan and PanC4 Consortia

BACKGROUND

Obesity and diabetes are major modifiable risk factors for pancreatic cancer. Interactions between genetic variants and diabetes/obesity have not previously been comprehensively investigated in pancreatic cancer at the genome-wide level.

METHODS

We conducted a gene-environment interaction (GxE) analysis including 8,255 cases and 11,900 controls from four pancreatic cancer genome-wide association study (GWAS) datasets (Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium I-III and Pancreatic Cancer Case Control Consortium). Obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2) and diabetes (duration ≥3 years) were the environmental variables of interest. Approximately 870,000 SNPs (minor allele frequency ≥0.005, genotyped in at least one dataset) were analyzed. Case-control (CC), case-only (CO), and joint-effect test methods were used for SNP-level GxE analysis. As a complementary approach, gene-based GxE analysis was also performed. Age, sex, study site, and principal components accounting for population substructure were included as covariates. Meta-analysis was applied to combine individual GWAS summary statistics.

RESULTS

No genome-wide significant interactions (departures from a log-additive odds model) with diabetes or obesity were detected at the SNP level by the CC or CO approaches. The joint-effect test detected numerous genome-wide significant GxE signals in the GWAS main effects top hit regions, but the significance diminished after adjusting for the GWAS top hits. In the gene-based analysis, a significant interaction of diabetes with variants in the FAM63A (family with sequence similarity 63 member A) gene (significance threshold P < 1.25 × 10-6) was observed in the meta-analysis (P GxE = 1.2 ×10-6, P Joint = 4.2 ×10-7).

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis did not find significant GxE interactions at the SNP level but found one significant interaction with diabetes at the gene level. A larger sample size might unveil additional genetic factors via GxE scans.

IMPACT

This study may contribute to discovering the mechanism of diabetes-associated pancreatic cancer.

Endocrine-disrupting chemicals: economic, regulatory, and policy implications

Endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) substantially cost society as a result of increases in disease and disability but-unlike other toxicant classes such as carcinogens-have yet to be codified into regulations as a hazard category. This Series paper examines economic, regulatory, and policy approaches to limit human EDC exposures and describes potential improvements. In the EU, general principles for EDCs call for minimisation of human exposure, identification as substances of very high concern, and ban on use in pesticides. In the USA, screening and testing programmes are focused on oestrogenic EDCs exclusively, and regulation is strictly risk-based. Minimisation of human exposure is unlikely without a clear overarching definition for EDCs and relevant pre-marketing test requirements. We call for a multifaceted international programme (eg, modelled on the International Agency for Research in Cancer) to address the effects of EDCs on human health-an approach that would proactively identify hazards for subsequent regulation.

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular risk-changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.

Scientists' opinions and attitudes towards citizens' understanding of science and their role in public engagement activities

The increasing perception that public communication in science and technology is an important tool to create a knowledge society is encouraging numerous public engagement activities. However, too little is known about scientists' opinions of and attitudes towards the public with whom they interact during these activities, especially in southern European countries such as Spain. If we want to establish an effective dialogue between science and society, we need to be aware of the opinions and perceptions that both parties have of each other. In this study, we address this issue by focusing on 1022 responses to a survey conducted among scientists in Spain to discover their views of the public, and we then compare these responses with data from other national surveys on the public's understanding of science. The results show that approximately 75% of Spanish scientists think that the general public has a serious lack of knowledge and understanding of scientific reasoning, although scientists do recognize that science interests the public (73%). Scientists believe that the public values the scientific profession to a lesser extent than suggested by public surveys: on a scale of 1-5, survey respondents rate their valuation of the scientific profession at 4.22, whereas scientists rate the public's valuation of the profession at 3.12, on average. Significant differences were detected between scientists' perceptions of how citizens are informed about science and what citizens report in surveys. The challenge for the future is to narrow this gap in order to help scientists gain a better understanding of the public and their interests and to make public engagement activities more effective.

Concentrations of trace elements and KRAS mutations in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

Trace elements are a possible risk factor for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). However, their role in the occurrence and persistence of KRAS mutations remains unstudied. There appear to be no studies analyzing biomarkers of trace elements and KRAS mutations in any human cancer. We aimed to determine whether patients with KRAS mutated and nonmutated tumors exhibit differences in concentrations of trace elements. Incident cases of PDAC were prospectively identified in five hospitals in Spain. KRAS mutational status was determined through polymerase chain reaction from tumor tissue. Concentrations of 12 trace elements were determined in toenail samples by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Concentrations of trace elements were compared in 78 PDAC cases and 416 hospital-based controls (case-control analyses), and between 17 KRAS wild-type tumors and 61 KRAS mutated tumors (case-case analyses). Higher levels of iron, arsenic, and vanadium were associated with a statistically nonsignificant increased risk of a KRAS wild-type PDAC (OR for higher tertile of arsenic = 3.37, 95% CI 0.98-11.57). Lower levels of nickel and manganese were associated with a statistically significant higher risk of a KRAS mutated PDAC (OR for manganese = 0.34, 95% CI 0.14-0.80). Higher levels of selenium appeared protective for both mutated and KRAS wild-type PDAC. Higher levels of cadmium and lead were clear risk factors for both KRAS mutated and wild-type cases. This is the first study analyzing biomarkers of trace elements and KRAS mutations in any human cancer. Concentrations of trace elements differed markedly between PDAC cases with and without mutations in codon 12 of the KRAS oncogene, thus suggesting a role for trace elements in pancreatic and perhaps other cancers with such mutations. Environ. Mol. Mutagen., 60:693-703, 2019. © 2019 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Neurotoxic chemicals in adipose tissue: A role in puzzling findings on obesity and dementia

Midlife obesity is associated with increased risk of dementia, whereas late-life obesity is commonly associated with a lower risk of dementia. Although methodologic issues are often discussed in this apparent risk reversal, chronic exposure to low-dose organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), an emerging risk factor for dementia in general populations, may contribute to a direct explanation for these differences. OCPs are strong lipophilic chemicals with very long half-lives (several years), primarily stored in adipose tissue and very slowly released and metabolized over years. As serum concentrations of neurotoxic OCPs strongly correlate with brain OCPs (r = 0.95), any condition enhancing the release of OCPs from the adipose tissue into circulation would increase the risk of dementia. Increased release of OCPs from adipose tissue typically occurs in (1) dysfunctional adipocytes accompanied by uncontrolled lipolysis and (2) weight loss. Weight gain may help sequester circulating OCPs in adipose tissue. As obesity is the most common reason that adipocytes become dysfunctional, midlife obesity can increase dementia risk through the chronic release of OCPs into circulation. However, late-life obesity potentially decreases dementia risk because weight loss after midlife will increase the release of OCPs while weight gain may actually decrease the release. These countervailing forces may underlie paradoxical associations with dementia of obesity in midlife vs late life which is influenced by weight change after midlife. This hypothesis should be tested in future experimental and human studies on obesity and dementia.

Agnostic Pathway/Gene Set Analysis of Genome-Wide Association Data Identifies Associations for Pancreatic Cancer

BACKGROUND

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identify associations of individual single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with cancer risk but usually only explain a fraction of the inherited variability. Pathway analysis of genetic variants is a powerful tool to identify networks of susceptibility genes.

METHODS

We conducted a large agnostic pathway-based meta-analysis of GWAS data using the summary-based adaptive rank truncated product method to identify gene sets and pathways associated with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in 9040 cases and 12 496 controls. We performed expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis and functional annotation of the top SNPs in genes contributing to the top associated pathways and gene sets. All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

We identified 14 pathways and gene sets associated with PDAC at a false discovery rate of less than 0.05. After Bonferroni correction (P ≤ 1.3 × 10-5), the strongest associations were detected in five pathways and gene sets, including maturity-onset diabetes of the young, regulation of beta-cell development, role of epidermal growth factor (EGF) receptor transactivation by G protein-coupled receptors in cardiac hypertrophy pathways, and the Nikolsky breast cancer chr17q11-q21 amplicon and Pujana ATM Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) network gene sets. We identified and validated rs876493 and three correlating SNPs (PGAP3) and rs3124737 (CASP7) from the Pujana ATM PCC gene set as eQTLs in two normal derived pancreas tissue datasets.

CONCLUSION

Our agnostic pathway and gene set analysis integrated with functional annotation and eQTL analysis provides insight into genes and pathways that may be biologically relevant for risk of PDAC, including those not previously identified.

Toenail concentrations of trace elements and occupational history in pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

Some occupations potentially entailing exposure to cadmium, arsenic, lead, selenium, nickel, and chromium have been associated with an increased risk of exocrine pancreatic cancer (EPC), but no studies have assessed whether body concentrations of such compounds differed among subjects occupationally exposed and unexposed. No studies which found that exposure to such metals increased the risk of EPC assessed whether past occupations were the source of exposure.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to analyse the relationship between toenail concentrations of trace elements and occupational history in EPC patients.

METHODS

The study included 114 EPC cases personally interviewed on occupational history and lifestyle factors. Occupations were coded according to the International Standard Classification of Occupations 1988. Selected occupational exposures were assessed by two industrial hygienists and with the Finnish job-exposure matrix (Finjem). Concentrations of 12 trace elements were determined in toenail samples by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Adjusted geometric means (aGMs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated.

RESULTS

Patients occupationally exposed to aromatic hydrocarbon solvents (AHs) had higher concentrations of cadmium, manganese, lead, iron and vanadium. The aGM of cadmium concentrations for cases exposed to any pesticide was 0.056 μg/g [95% CI: 0.029-0.108], and, for unexposed cases, 0.023 μg/g [0.017-0.031]. Patients occupationally exposed to pesticides had higher concentrations of cadmium and manganese. Higher concentrations of vanadium, lead and arsenic were related to exposure to formaldehyde. Vanadium and lead were also associated with exposure to chlorinated hydrocarbon solvents, and arsenic was related to exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients occupationally exposed to AHs, pesticides, chlorinated hydrocarbon solvents, formaldehyde, volatile sulphur compounds and PAHs had higher concentrations of several metals. These elements may account for some of the occupational risks previously reported for pancreatic cancer.

Organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in early adulthood and blood lipids over a 23-year follow-up

BACKGROUND

Some evidence in humans suggests that persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), may alter the blood lipid composition. This study analyzed associations between serum POPs concentrations in young adulthood with blood lipid levels up to 23 years later.

METHODS

Serum POPs were measured in year 2 of follow-up (n = 180 men and women, ages: 20-32y), and plasma lipids in follow-up years 2, 7, 10, 15, 20 and 25. 32 POPs were detectable in ≥75% of participants (23 PCBs, 8 OCPs and PBB-153). We created summary scores for PCBs and OCPs for both wet-weight, and lipid standardized (LP) concentrations. We used repeated measures regression adjusting for demographic factors, BMI, smoking, diabetes status, among others.

RESULTS

We observed positive associations of the 23 LP-PCB score with total cholesterol (β_{per SD increase} [95%CI]: 5.0 mg/dL [0.7, 9.2]), triglycerides (7.8 mg/dL [-0.9, 16.5]), LDL (4.2 mg/dL [0.2, 8.2]), oxidized LDL 3.4 U/L (-0.05, 6.8), and cholesterol/HDL ratio (0.2 [0.02, 0.3]). The associations for triglycerides (14.7 mg/dL [0.4, 20.1]), cholesterol/HDL (0.33 [0.09, 0.56]) and, to some extent, LDL (4.7 md/dL [-1.6, 10.9]) were only observed among participants in the upper 50th percentile of BMI. Non-dioxin-like PCBs had stronger associations that dioxin-like PCBs. OCPs and PBB-s had positive associations with most outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

PCBs and PBB-153 measured in young adulthood were positively associated with prospective alterations in most blood lipid components, with evidence of effect modification by BMI. Further longitudinal studies with multiple measures of POPs overtime are needed.

Methodological issues in a prospective study on plasma concentrations of persistent organic pollutants and pancreatic cancer risk within the EPIC cohort

BACKGROUND

The use of biomarkers of environmental exposure to explore new risk factors for pancreatic cancer presents clinical, logistic, and methodological challenges that are also relevant in research on other complex diseases.

OBJECTIVES

First, to summarize the main design features of a prospective case-control study -nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort- on plasma concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and pancreatic cancer risk. And second, to assess the main methodological challenges posed by associations among characteristics and habits of study participants, fasting status, time from blood draw to cancer diagnosis, disease progression bias, basis of cancer diagnosis, and plasma concentrations of lipids and POPs. Results from etiologic analyses on POPs and pancreatic cancer risk, and other analyses, will be reported in future articles.

METHODS

Study subjects were 1533 participants (513 cases and 1020 controls matched by study centre, sex, age at blood collection, date and time of blood collection, and fasting status) enrolled between 1992 and 2000. Plasma concentrations of 22 POPs were measured by gas chromatography - triple quadrupole mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS). To estimate the magnitude of the associations we calculated multivariate-adjusted odds ratios by unconditional logistic regression, and adjusted geometric means by General Linear Regression Models.

RESULTS

There were differences among countries in subjects' characteristics (as age, gender, smoking, lipid and POP concentrations), and in study characteristics (as time from blood collection to index date, year of last follow-up, length of follow-up, basis of cancer diagnosis, and fasting status). Adjusting for centre and time of blood collection, no factors were significantly associated with fasting status. Plasma concentrations of lipids were related to age, body mass index, fasting, country, and smoking. We detected and quantified 16 of the 22 POPs in more than 90% of individuals. All 22 POPs were detected in some participants, and the smallest number of POPs detected in one person was 15 (median, 19) with few differences by country. The highest concentrations were found for p,p'-DDE, PCBs 153 and 180 (median concentration: 3371, 1023, and 810 pg/mL, respectively). We assessed the possible occurrence of disease progression bias (DPB) in eight situations defined by lipid and POP measurements, on one hand, and by four factors: interval from blood draw to index date, tumour subsite, tumour stage, and grade of differentiation, on the other. In seven of the eight situations results supported the absence of DPB.

CONCLUSIONS

The coexistence of differences across study centres in some design features and participant characteristics is of relevance to other multicentre studies. Relationships among subjects' characteristics and among such characteristics and design features may play important roles in the forthcoming analyses on the association between plasma concentrations of POPs and pancreatic cancer risk.

Circulating plasma phospholipid fatty acids and risk of pancreatic cancer in a large European cohort

There are both limited and conflicting data on the role of dietary fat and specific fatty acids in the development of pancreatic cancer. In this study, we investigated the association between plasma phospholipid fatty acids and pancreatic cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. The fatty acid composition was measured by gas chromatography in plasma samples collected at recruitment from375 incident pancreatic cancer cases and375 matched controls. Associations of specific fatty acids with pancreatic cancer risk were evaluated using multivariable conditional logistic regression models with adjustment for established pancreatic cancer risk factors. Statistically significant inverse associations were found between pancreatic cancer incidence and levels of heptadecanoic acid (ORT3-T1 [odds ratio for highest versus lowest tertile] =0.63; 95%CI[confidence interval] = 0.41-0.98; ptrend = 0.036), n-3 polyunsaturated α-linolenic acid (ORT3-T1 = 0.60; 95%CI = 0.39-0.92; ptrend = 0.02) and docosapentaenoic acid (ORT3-T1 = 0.52; 95%CI = 0.32-0.85; ptrend = 0.008). Industrial trans-fatty acids were positively associated with pancreatic cancer risk among men (ORT3-T1 = 3.00; 95%CI = 1.13-7.99; ptrend = 0.029), while conjugated linoleic acids were inversely related to pancreatic cancer among women only (ORT3-T1 = 0.37; 95%CI = 0.17-0.81; ptrend = 0.008). Among current smokers, the long-chain n-6/n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids ratio was positively associated with pancreatic cancer risk (ORT3-T1 = 3.40; 95%CI = 1.39-8.34; ptrend = 0.007). Results were robust to a range of sensitivity analyses. Our findings suggest that higher circulating levels of saturated fatty acids with an odd number of carbon atoms and n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids may be related to lower risk of pancreatic cancer. The influence of some fatty acids on the development of pancreatic cancer may be sex-specific and modulated by smoking.

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

BACKGROUND

Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure.

METHODS

We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probit-transformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure.

RESULTS

In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the high-income Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association.

CONCLUSIONS

Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups.

Introduction to the Protocols on Screening and Treatment of Diabetic Retinopathy

Diabetes eye complications, and particularly diabetic retinopathy, are the major cause of blindness in the working age groups of industrialised countries. Laser photocoagulation has been proven to reduce blindness due to retinopathy by at least 60% but even more patients would benefit if treatment were delivered at an early enough stage. High risk retinopathy, though, does not cause visual symptoms and when the latter occur it is often too late to reverse them. Hence, a screening programme for diabetic retinopathy should aim at detecting patients at risk when they can still be effectively treated. This can be obtained by regularly checking the patients' eyes. Its target, as defined by the joint World Health Organisation/International Diabetes Federation Saint Vincent Declaration Working Group, is to reduce diabetes-related blindness by one third or more in the next 5 years. The number of persons to be screened is high, 30,000/million total population/year, but available data indicate that this is feasible and that the initial investments in professional and material resources are more than justified by the reduction of preventable blindness and of the financial burdens that go with it. Indeed, prevention of the major cause of blindness in the working age should rate the same priority as other widely deployed programmes, such as those to screen for cancer, neonatal hypothyroidism and phenylketonuria. The concerted action of government health departments, patients' and professional associations will be vital for the successful implementation of this programme. The texts of this document (a protocol for the screening of diabetic retinopathy and cataract), Appendix 1 (data collection card) and Appendix 2 (informative leaflet for the patients) were approved by 57 specialists, representing 30 diabetic and ophthalmic societies from 21 European countries, and endorsed for translation into all European languages and distribution at the appropriate levels.

A study of the Effects of Angiotensins 1, 2, 3 and Bradykinin on the Replication of Bovine Retinal Capillary Endothelial Cells and Pericytes

The renin-angiotensin system of the human eye may play a role in the regulation of retinal blood flow and the development of new vessels. We have investigated whether angiotensins 1, 2 and 3 or bradykinin, in concentrations ranging between 1 × 10–12 and 1 × 10–6, have any mitogenic activity on cultured bovine retinal endothelial cells (BREC) and pericytes (BRP). Cell replication was assessed by 3H-thymidine incorporation and, in the case of BREC and A T-2, also by cell counts. A T-2 was also tested on bovine aortic EC (BAEC). None of the substances elicited any response on BREC, BRP or BAEC. Whether angiotensin(s) induce angiogenesis in retinal vessels in vivo remains to be established but this does not appear to occur through direct stimulation of cell replication.

Diabetic Retinopathy and Metabolic Control

Retinopathy is probably the first long-term complication of diabetes mellitus to become clinically evident, possibly because the retina is the only microvascular bed that can be observed directly and repeatedly. This makes it a good model for studying the pathogenesis and natural history of diabetic microangiopathy. Most of the proposals to account for its pathogenesis invoke mechanisms that depend directly on the circulating and tissue levels of glucose: protein glycosylation, activation of the “polyol pathway”, abnormalities of vascular endothelium, altered capillary blood flow. Several population studies and clinical trials suggest that the degree of metabolic control maintained over the years influences the rates of appearance and progression of retinopathy. However, on an individual basis, factors independent of control may intervene, making some patients more or less prone to this complication. Animal models also suggest that the progression of retinopathy may become irreversible from its very early stages. From a clinical point of view, it is difficult to establish a satisfactory definition of “good” control and approaching it may increase the risk of dangerous hypoglycemia and weight gain. Diabetes and eye specialists are thus left to strive for the best possible, sensible, metabolic control but must also rely on early diagnosis and treatment for the sight-threatening complications of diabetes.

Blood Concentrations of Persistent Organic Pollutants and Unhealthy Metabolic Phenotypes in Normal-Weight, Overweight, and Obese Individuals

Factors underlying metabolic phenotypes, such as the metabolically healthy but obese phenotype, remain unclear. Differences in metabolic phenotypes-particularly, among individuals with a similar body mass index-could be related to concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). To our knowledge, no studies have analyzed POPs and metabolic phenotypes in normal-weight persons. We investigated the relationships between serum concentrations of POPs and metabolic phenotypes in 860 normal-weight, overweight, and obese participants in the 2002 Catalan Health Interview Survey (Spain). POP concentrations were significantly higher in metabolically unhealthy than in metabolically healthy individuals. In models adjusting for body mass index and other confounders, hexachlorobenzene, β-hexachlorocyclohexane, and polychlorinated biphenyls were associated with the unhealthy metabolic phenotype and metabolic syndrome. Among normal-weight individuals, the adjusted prevalence ratio of having an unhealthy phenotype for the upper category of the sum of orders of the 6 mentioned POPs (all individually associated with metabolic phenotypes) was 4.1 (95% confidence interval: 1.7, 10.0). Among overweight and obese individuals, the corresponding prevalence ratio for the sum of polychlorinated biphenyls was 1.4 (95% confidence interval: 1.0, 1.8). Our results supported the hypothesis that POP concentrations are associated with unhealthy metabolic phenotypes, not only in obese and overweight individuals but also (and probably more strongly) in normal-weight individuals.