Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Digital health, cardiometabolic disease and ethnicity: an analysis of United Kingdom government policies from 2010 to 2022

Recent health policies in the United Kingdom (UK) and internationally have focussed on digitisation of healthcare. We examined UK policies for evidence of government action addressing health inequalities and digital health, using cardiometabolic disease as an exemplar. Using a systematic search methodology, we identified 87 relevant policy documents published between 2010 and 2022. We found increasing emphasis on digital health, including for prevention, diagnosis and management of cardiometabolic disease. Several policies also focused on tackling health inequalities and improving digital access. The COVID-19 pandemic amplified inequalities. No policies addressed ethnic inequalities in digital health for cardiometabolic disease, despite high prevalence in minority ethnic communities. Our findings suggest that creating opportunities for digital inclusion and reduce longer-term health inequalities, will require future policies to focus on: the heterogeneity of ethnic groups; cross-sectoral disadvantages which contribute to disease burden and digital accessibility; and disease-specific interventions which lend themselves to culturally tailored solutions.

Treatment adaptations and outcomes of patients experiencing inflammatory bowel disease flares during the early COVID-19 pandemic: the PREPARE-IBD multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic offered a unique opportunity to understand inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) management during unexpected disruption. This could help to guide practice overall.

AIMS

To compare prescribing behaviour for IBD flares and outcomes during the early pandemic with pre-pandemic findings METHODS: We performed an observational cohort study comprising patients who contacted IBD teams for symptomatic flares between March and June 2020 in 60 National Health Service trusts in the United Kingdom. Data were compared with a pre-pandemic cohort after propensity-matching for age and physician global assessment of disease activity.

RESULTS

We included 1864 patients in each of the pandemic and pre-pandemic cohorts. The principal findings were reduced systemic corticosteroid prescription during the pandemic in Crohn's disease (prednisolone: pandemic 26.5% vs. 37.1%; p < 0.001) and ulcerative colitis (UC) (prednisolone: pandemic 33.5% vs. 40.7%, p < 0.001), with increases in poorly bioavailable oral corticosteroids in Crohn's (pandemic 15.6% vs. 6.8%; p < 0.001) and UC (pandemic 11.8% vs. 5.2%; p < 0.001). Ustekinumab (Crohn's and UC) and vedolizumab (UC) treatment also significantly increased. Three-month steroid-free remission in each period was similar in Crohn's (pandemic 28.4% vs. 32.1%; p = 0.17) and UC (pandemic 36.4% vs. 40.2%; p = 0.095). Patients experiencing a flare and suspected COVID-19 were more likely to have moderately-to-severely active disease at 3 months than those with a flare alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite treatment adaptations during the pandemic, steroid-free outcomes were comparable with pre-pandemic levels, although concurrent flare and suspected COVID-19 caused worse outcomes. These findings have implications for IBD management during future pandemics and for standard practice.

The association between inflammatory bowel disease and mental ill health: a retrospective cohort study using data from UK primary care

BACKGROUND

Patients with active inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and mental illnesses experience worse IBD outcomes.

AIM

To describe the incidence of mental illnesses, including deliberate self-harm, in IBD patients.

METHODS

A population-based retrospective cohort study using IQVIA medical research data of a primary care database covering the whole UK, between January 1995 and January 2021. IBD patients of all ages were matched 4:1 by demographics and primary care practice to unexposed controls. Following exclusion of patients with mental ill health at study entry, adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of developing depression, anxiety, deliberate self-harm, severe mental illness and insomnia were calculated using a Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

We included 48,799 incident IBD patients: 28,352 with ulcerative colitis and 20,447 with Crohn's disease. Incidence rate ratios of mental illness were higher in IBD patients than controls (all p < 0.001): deliberate self-harm 1.31 (95% CI 1.16-1.47), anxiety 1.17 (1.11-1.24), depression 1.36 (1.31-1.42) and insomnia 1.62 (1.54-1.69). Patients with Crohn's disease were more likely to develop deliberate self-harm HR 1.51 (95% CI 1.28-1.78), anxiety 1.38 (1.16-1.65), depression 1.36 (1.26-1.47) and insomnia 1.74 (1.62-1.86). Patients with IBD are at increased risk of deliberate self-harm (HR 1.20 [1.07-1.35]). The incidence rate ratios of mental illnesses were particularly high during the first year following IBD diagnosis: anxiety 1.28 (1.13-1.46), depression 1.62 (1.48-1.77) and insomnia 1.99 (1.78-2.21).

CONCLUSION

Deliberate self-harm, depression, anxiety and insomnia were more frequent among patients with IBD. IBD is independently associated with an increased risk of deliberate self-harm.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades.

METHODS

Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer.

FINDINGS

Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00-2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02-1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3-23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6-28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5-14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6-14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7-320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2-313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9-80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5-73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8-71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0-37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6-34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6-34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Disease activity, burden and suffering in patients with ulcerative colitis in the UK cohort recruited into the global ICONIC study

OBJECTIVE

The Understanding the Impact of Ulcerative Colitis and Its Associated Disease Burden on Patients (ICONIC) was a 2-year, global, prospective, observational study assessing disease burden in adults recently diagnosed (≤36 months) with ulcerative colitis (UC) receiving routine outpatient care, irrespective of disease severity or treatment. A subanalysis was conducted to understand the UK perspective.

DESIGN/METHOD

All eligible consenting patients enrolled in ICONIC from the UK were included in the subanalysis of patient-reported and physician-reported outcomes at baseline and year 2 (Y2).

RESULTS

Sixty-three UK patients were included (mean age 43.4 years, 58.7% female). At baseline and Y2, the mean (±SD) Simple Clinical Colitis Activity Index (SCCAI) scores were 3.6 (±3.3) and 1.5 (±1.5); Patient Modified Simple Clinical Colitis Activity Index (P-SSCAI) were 4.9 (±4.0) and 2.6 (±2.6), respectively. Physician-reported Pictorial Representation of Illness and Self Measure (PRISM) median scores (assessing inverse of suffering) were 3.5 (IQR 2.0-6.8) at baseline and 5.5 (IQR 3.6-6.9) at Y2; patient-reported PRISM scores were 4.7 (IQR 2.6-6.9) and 5.4 (IQR 3.2-8.0), respectively. At baseline, SCCAI and P-SCCAI were strongly correlated (r=0.86, p<0.0001), and patient-reported and physician-reported PRISM scores moderately correlated (r=0.67, p<0.0001). At Y2, moderate correlations were observed (SCCAI vs P-SCCAI: r=0.72, p<0.0001; patient-reported vs physician- reported PRISM: r=0.60, p<0.0001). Rating Form of IBD Patient Concerns scores indicated patients' greatest concerns were with energy level, having an ostomy bag and effects of medication (baseline scores >3.0).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings demonstrated the multifaceted burden of disease in patients recently diagnosed with UC in the UK. Agreement between patients and physicians on disease activity/severity varied according to the instrument used.

Frameworks for implementation, uptake and use of digital health interventions in ethnic minority populations: a scoping review using cardiometabolic disease as a case study. (Preprint)

Background

Digital health interventions have become increasingly common across health care, both before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Health inequalities, particularly with respect to ethnicity, may not be considered in frameworks that address the implementation of digital health interventions. We considered frameworks to include any models, theories, or taxonomies that describe or predict implementation, uptake, and use of digital health interventions.

Objective

We aimed to assess how health inequalities are addressed in frameworks relevant to the implementation, uptake, and use of digital health interventions; health and ethnic inequalities; and interventions for cardiometabolic disease.

Methods

SCOPUS, PubMed, EMBASE, Google Scholar, and gray literature were searched to identify papers on frameworks relevant to the implementation, uptake, and use of digital health interventions; ethnically or culturally diverse populations and health inequalities; and interventions for cardiometabolic disease. We assessed the extent to which frameworks address health inequalities, specifically ethnic inequalities; explored how they were addressed; and developed recommendations for good practice.

Results

Of 58 relevant papers, 22 (38%) included frameworks that referred to health inequalities. Inequalities were conceptualized as society-level, system-level, intervention-level, and individual. Only 5 frameworks considered all levels. Three frameworks considered how digital health interventions might interact with or exacerbate existing health inequalities, and 3 considered the process of health technology implementation, uptake, and use and suggested opportunities to improve equity in digital health. When ethnicity was considered, it was often within the broader concepts of social determinants of health. Only 3 frameworks explicitly addressed ethnicity: one focused on culturally tailoring digital health interventions, and 2 were applied to management of cardiometabolic disease.

Conclusions

Existing frameworks evaluate implementation, uptake, and use of digital health interventions, but to consider factors related to ethnicity, it is necessary to look across frameworks. We have developed a visual guide of the key constructs across the 4 potential levels of action for digital health inequalities, which can be used to support future research and inform digital health policies.

Ambulatory care management of 69 patients with acute severe ulcerative colitis in comparison to 695 inpatients: insights from a multicentre UK cohort study

Introduction

Acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) traditionally requires inpatient hospital management for intravenous therapies and/or colectomy. Ambulatory ASUC care has not yet been evaluated in large cohorts.

Aims

We used data from PROTECT, a UK multicentre observational COVID-19 inflammatory bowel disease study, to report the extent, safety and effectiveness of ASUC ambulatory pathways.

Methods

Adults (≥18 years old) meeting Truelove and Witts criteria between 1 January 2019–1 June 2019 and 1 March 2020–30 June 2020 were recruited to PROTECT. We used demographic, disease phenotype, treatment outcomes and 3-month follow-up data. Primary outcome was rate of colectomy during the index ASUC episode. Secondary outcomes included corticosteroid response, time to and rate of rescue or primary induction therapy, response to rescue or primary induction therapy, time to colectomy, mortality, duration of inpatient treatment and hospital readmission and colectomy within 3 months of index flare. We compared outcomes in three cohorts: (1) patients treated entirely in inpatient setting; ambulatory patients subdivided into; (2) patients managed as ambulatory from diagnosis and (3) patients hospitalised and subsequently discharged to ambulatory care for continued intravenous steroids.

Results

37% (22/60) participating hospitals used ambulatory pathways. Of 764 eligible patients, 695 (91%) patients received entirely inpatient care, 15 (2%) patients were managed as ambulatory from diagnosis and 54 (7%) patients were discharged to ambulatory pathways. Aside from younger age in patients treated as ambulatory from diagnosis, no significant differences in disease or patient phenotype were observed. The rate of colectomy (15.0% (104/695) vs 13.3% (2/15) vs 13.0% (7/54), respectively, p=0.96) and secondary outcomes were similar among all three cohorts. Stool culture and flexible sigmoidoscopy were less frequently performed in ambulatory cohorts. Forty per cent of patients treated as ambulatory from diagnosis required subsequent hospital admission.

Conclusions

In a post hoc analysis of one of the largest ASUC cohorts collected to date, we report an emerging UK ambulatory practice which challenges treatment paradigms. However, our analysis remains underpowered to detect key outcome measures and further studies exploring clinical and cost-effectiveness as well as patient and physician acceptability are needed.

Trial registration number

NCT04411784.

Socioeconomic deprivation, age and language are barriers to accessing personal health records: a cross-sectional study of a large hospital-based personal health record system

OBJECTIVES

To investigate barriers to accessing a hospital-based personal health record (PHR) system.

DESIGN

Retrospective cross-sectional study.

SETTING

This study was conducted in a large secondary and tertiary acute care trust in Birmingham, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Data were collected from 28 637 patients who attended liver medicine, diabetes, renal medicine or endocrinology specialist outpatient clinics from 1 June 2017 to 31 May 2018.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was sign up to and activation of the PHR. The secondary outcomes were the use of the PHR, defined as the number of logons and frequency of access of specific PHR functions.

RESULTS

8070 patients (28.2%) were signed up to the PHR and 4286 patients (53.1% of those signed up) went on to activate their PHR account. Patients aged 75 years and older were significantly less likely to be signed up (adjusted OR, aOR 0.40, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.44) or to activate (aOR 0.39, 0.32 to 0.47) their PHR than patients aged 35-54. Patients who did not need an interpreter were more likely to be signed up (aOR 1.63, 95% CI 1.33 to 1.99) and to activate (aOR 3.16, 95% CI 1.96 to 5.09) their PHR. Patients living in the least deprived areas were more than twice as likely to be signed up (aOR 2.31, 95% CI 2.04 to 2.63), and were three times more likely to activate their PHR (aOR 2.99, 95% CI 2.40 to 3.71), than those in the most deprived.

CONCLUSION

Socioeconomic deprivation, older age and non-English language were significant barriers to accessing a hospital-based PHR. Strategies are needed to account for these factors to ensure that PHRs do not widen health inequalities.

British Society of Gastroenterology guidelines for the management of iron deficiency anaemia in adults

Iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) is a major cause of morbidity and burden of disease worldwide. It can generally be diagnosed by blood testing and remedied by iron replacement therapy (IRT) using the oral or intravenous route. The many causes of iron deficiency include poor dietary intake and malabsorption of dietary iron, as well as a number of significant gastrointestinal (GI) pathologies. Because blood is iron-rich it can result from chronic blood loss, and this is a common mechanism underlying the development of IDA-for example, as a consequence of menstrual or GI blood loss.Approximately a third of men and postmenopausal women presenting with IDA have an underlying pathological abnormality, most commonly in the GI tract. Therefore optimal management of IDA requires IRT in combination with appropriate investigation to establish the underlying cause. Unexplained IDA in all at-risk individuals is an accepted indication for fast-track secondary care referral in the UK because GI malignancies can present in this way, often in the absence of specific symptoms. Bidirectional GI endoscopy is the standard diagnostic approach to examination of the upper and lower GI tract, though radiological scanning is an alternative in some situations for assessing the large bowel. In recurrent or refractory IDA, wireless capsule endoscopy plays an important role in assessment of the small bowel.IDA may present in primary care or across a range of specialties in secondary care, and because of this and the insidious nature of the condition it has not always been optimally managed despite the considerable burden of disease- with investigation sometimes being inappropriate, incorrectly timed or incomplete, and the role of IRT for symptom relief neglected. It is therefore important that contemporary guidelines for the management of IDA are available to all clinicians. This document is a revision of previous British Society of Gastroenterology guidelines, updated in the light of subsequent evidence and developments.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1·21% [-1·26 to -1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0·94% [-1·72 to -0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period.

INTERPRETATION

Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Letter: risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes associated with inflammatory bowel disease medications-reassuring insights from the United Kingdom PREPARE-IBD multicentre cohort study

LINKED CONTENT This article is linked to Taxonera et al paper. To view this article, visit https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.15804

New dimensions for hospital services and early detection of disease: a Review from the Lancet Commission into liver disease in the UK

This Review, in addressing the unacceptably high mortality of patients with liver disease admitted to acute hospitals, reinforces the need for integrated clinical services. The masterplan described is based on regional, geographically sited liver centres, each linked to four to six surrounding district general hospitals-a pattern of care similar to that successfully introduced for stroke services. The plan includes the establishment of a lead and deputy lead clinician in each acute hospital, preferably a hepatologist or gastroenterologist with a special interest in liver disease, who will have prime responsibility for organising the care of admitted patients with liver disease on a 24/7 basis. Essential for the plan is greater access to intensive care units and high-dependency units, in line with the reconfiguration of emergency care due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This Review strongly recommends full implementation of alcohol care teams in hospitals and improved working links with acute medical services. We also endorse recommendations from paediatric liver services to improve overall survival figures by diagnosing biliary atresia earlier based on stool colour charts and better caring for patients with impaired cognitive ability and developmental mental health problems. Pilot studies of earlier diagnosis have shown encouraging progress, with 5-6% of previously undiagnosed cases of severe fibrosis or cirrhosis identified through use of a portable FibroScan in primary care. Similar approaches to the detection of early asymptomatic disease are described in accounts from the devolved nations, and the potential of digital technology in improving the value of clinical consultation and screening programmes in primary care is highlighted. The striking contribution of comorbidities, particularly obesity and diabetes (with excess alcohol consumption known to be a major factor in obesity), to mortality in COVID-19 reinforces the need for fiscal and other long delayed regulatory measures to reduce the prevalence of obesity. These measures include the food sugar levy and the introduction of the minimum unit price policy to reduce alcohol consumption. Improving public health, this Review emphasises, will not only mitigate the severity of further waves of COVID-19, but is crucial to reducing the unacceptable burden from liver disease in the UK.

Nonsteroidal Antiinflammatory Drugs and Susceptibility to COVID-19

Objective

To identify whether active use of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) increases susceptibility to developing suspected or confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) compared to the use of other common analgesics.

Methods

We performed a propensity score–matched cohort study with active comparators, using a large UK primary care data set. The cohort consisted of adult patients age ≥18 years with osteoarthritis (OA) who were followed up from January 30 to July 31, 2020. Patients prescribed an NSAID (excluding topical preparations) were compared to those prescribed either co‐codamol (paracetamol and codeine) or co‐dydramol (paracetamol and dihydrocodeine). A total of 13,202 patients prescribed NSAIDs were identified, compared to 12,457 patients prescribed the comparator drugs. The primary outcome measure was the documentation of suspected or confirmed COVID‐19, and the secondary outcome measure was all‐cause mortality.

Results

During follow‐up, the incidence rates of suspected/confirmed COVID‐19 were 15.4 and 19.9 per 1,000 person‐years in the NSAID‐exposed group and comparator group, respectively. Adjusted hazard ratios for suspected or confirmed COVID‐19 among the unmatched and propensity score–matched OA cohorts, using data from clinical consultations in primary care settings, were 0.82 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.62–1.10) and 0.79 (95% CI 0.57–1.11), respectively, and adjusted hazard ratios for the risk of all‐cause mortality were 0.97 (95% CI 0.75–1.27) and 0.85 (95% CI 0.61–1.20), respectively. There was no effect modification by age or sex.

Conclusion

No increase in the risk of suspected or confirmed COVID‐19 or mortality was observed among patients with OA in a primary care setting who were prescribed NSAIDs as compared to those who received comparator drugs. These results are reassuring and suggest that in the absence of acute illness, NSAIDs can be safely prescribed during the ongoing pandemic.

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.

METHODS

GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.

METHODS

8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric.

FINDINGS

The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66-2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17-2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5-137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0-146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2-144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4-27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8-67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8-74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5-51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7-59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1-10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3-6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0-6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5-8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1-60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8-66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Impact of obesity and metabolic health status in the development of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD): A United Kingdom population-based cohort study using the health improvement network (THIN)

BACKGROUND

With the obesity epidemic reaching crisis levels, there has been attention around those who may be resilient to the effects of obesity, termed metabolically healthy obesity (MHO), who initially present without associated metabolic abnormalities. Few longitudinal studies have explored the relationship between MHO and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), which we address using over 4 million primary care patient records.

METHODS

A retrospective population-based longitudinal cohort was conducted using The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database incorporating adults with no history of NAFLD or alcohol excess at baseline. Individuals were classified according to BMI category and metabolic abnormalities (diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidaemia). Diagnosis of NAFLD during follow-up was the primary outcome measure. NAFLD was identified by Read codes.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 4.7 years, 12,867 (0.3%) incident cases of NAFLD were recorded in the cohort of 4,121,049 individuals. Compared to individuals with normal weight and no metabolic abnormalities, equivalent individuals who were overweight, or obese were at significantly greater risk of incident NAFLD (Adjusted HR 3.32 (95%CI 2.98-3.49), and 6.92 (6.40-7.48, respectively). Metabolic risk factors further increased risk, including in those with normal weight and 1 (2.27, 1.97-2.61) or = < 2 (2.39, 1.99-2.87) metabolic abnormalities.

CONCLUSIONS

MHO individuals are at greater risk of developing NAFLD compared to those with normal weight. This finding supports that the MHO phenotype is a temporary state, and weight must be considered a risk factor even before other risk factors develop. Being normal weight with metabolic abnormalities was also associated with risk of NAFLD.

Organisational changes and challenges for inflammatory bowel disease services in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVE

To determine the challenges in diagnosis, monitoring, support provision in the management of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients and explore the adaptations of IBD services.

METHODS

Internet-based survey by invitation of IBD services across the UK from 8 to 14 April 2020.

RESULTS

Respondents from 125 IBD services completed the survey. The number of whole-time equivalent gastroenterologists and IBD nurses providing elective outpatient care decreased significantly between baseline (median 4, IQR 4-7.5 and median 3, IQR 2-4) to the point of survey (median 2, IQR 1-4.8 and median 2, IQR 1-3) in the 6-week period following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (p<0.001 for both comparisons). Almost all (94%; 112/119) services reported an increase in IBD helpline activity. Face-to-face clinics were substituted for telephone consultation by 86% and video consultation by 11% of services. A variation in the provision of laboratory faecal calprotectin testing was noted with 27% of services reporting no access to faecal calprotectin, and a further 32% reduced access. There was also significant curtailment of IBD-specific endoscopy and elective surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

IBD services in the UK have implemented several adaptive strategies in order to continue to provide safe and high-quality care for patients. National Health Service organisations will need to consider the impact of these changes in current service delivery models and staffing levels when planning exit strategies for post-pandemic IBD care. Careful planning to manage the increased workload and to maintain IBD services is essential to ensure patient safety.

Association Between Fibrosis Stage and Outcomes of Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Biopsy-confirmed liver fibrosis is a prognostic factor for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We performed a systematic review to quantify the prognostic value of fibrosis stage in patients with NAFLD and the subgroup of patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and to assess the evidence that change in fibrosis stage is a surrogate endpoint.

METHODS

We searched the MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, and trial registry databases through August 2018 for prospective or retrospective cohort studies of liver-related clinical events and outcomes in adults with NAFLD or NASH. We collected data on mortality (all cause and liver related) and morbidity (cirrhosis, liver cancer, and all liver-related events) by stage of fibrosis, determined by biopsy, for patients with NAFLD or NASH. Using fibrosis stage 0 as a reference population, we calculated fibrosis stage-specific relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) values for mortality and morbidities. We performed fixed-effect and random-effect model meta-analyses. Metaregression was used to examine associations among study design (prospective vs retrospective cohort), overall risk of bias (medium or high), and mean duration of follow-up (in years).

RESULTS

Our meta-analysis included 13 studies, comprising 4428 patients with NAFLD; 2875 of these were reported to have NASH. Compared with no fibrosis (stage 0), unadjusted risk increased with increasing stage of fibrosis (stage 0 vs 4): all-cause mortality RR, 3.42 (95% CI, 2.63-4.46); liver-related mortality RR, 11.13 (95% CI, 4.15-29.84); liver transplant RR, 5.42 (95% CI, 1.05-27.89); and liver-related events RR, 12.78 (95% CI, 6.85-23.85). The magnitude of RR did not differ significantly after adjustment for confounders, including age or sex in the subgroup of NAFLD patients with NASH. Three studies examined the effects of increasing fibrosis on quality of life had inconsistent findings.

CONCLUSIONS

In a systematic review and meta-analysis, we found biopsy-confirmed fibrosis to be associated with risk of mortality and liver-related morbidity in patients with NAFLD, with and without adjustment for confounding factors and in patients with reported NASH. Further studies are needed to assess the association between fibrosis stage and patient quality of life and establish that change in liver fibrosis stage is a valid endpoint for use in clinical trials.

Changing patterns in the epidemiology and outcomes of inflammatory bowel disease in the United Kingdom: 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Data regarding incidence, prevalence and long-term outcomes of inflammatory bowel diseases in the UK are limited or outdated.

AIMS

To investigate incidence and prevalence of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis and risk of colorectal cancer and all-cause mortality in these diseases.

METHODS

Inflammatory bowel disease cases between 2000 and 2018 were identified from a national primary care database. Inflammatory bowel disease prevalence was forecast until 2025. The association between inflammatory bowel disease and colorectal cancer and all-cause mortality was investigated using age/sex-matched retrospective cohort studies. Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, sex, deprivation, comorbidity, smoking status and body mass index.

RESULTS

Ulcerative colitis prevalence increased from 390 to 570 per 100 000 population from 2000 to 2017. Prevalence of Crohn's disease increased from 220 to 400 per 100 000. In 2017 male Crohn's disease prevalence was 0.35% (95% confidence interval 0.34-0.36); female prevalence was 0.44% (0.43-0.45). Prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease is predicted to be 1.1% by 2025. Incidence of ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease was 23.2 (22.8-23.6) and 14.3 (14.0-14.7) per 100 000 person-years respectively. Subjects with ulcerative colitis were more likely to develop colorectal cancer than controls (adjusted Hazard Ratio 1.40 [1.23-1.59]). Colorectal cancer rates remained stable in inflammatory bowel diseases over time. Ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease were associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (1.17 [1.14-1.21] and 1.42 [1.36-1.48] respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The UK prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease is greater than previous reports suggest and we predict an 11% increase in prevalence by the year 2025. Mortality risk in inflammatory bowel disease and colorectal cancer risk in ulcerative colitis are increased compared to matched controls.

An Online Survey of Healthcare Professionals in the COVID-19 Pandemic in the UK:

To explore the emerging concerns of COVID-19 related issues amongst health care workers, members of a range of healthcare organisations, governmental agencies, and the media, and online self-administered survey of healthcare workers was undertaken by the British Association of Physicians of Indian Origin in April 2020. Results The respondents were predominantly hospital doctors (67%), aged between 40-60 years (72%) and from Black, Asian, and Minority Ethnicity (BAME) backgrounds in the UK (86%). Thirty percent of respondents had one or more vulnerable comorbidities. Over 78% reported either lack of, or inappropriate Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) for their role and 68% of respondents felt that they were unable to comply with or that it was impractical to adhere to social distancing at work (including commuting). At the time of the survey, 18.5% of respondents reported having a confirmed or suspected diagnosis of COVID-19. In multivariate analysis, the BAME community emerged as an independent risk factor (OR 1.45) for COVID-19 when adjusted for confounding factors. Conclusions These results add to the emerging concerns expressed internationally on the observation that BAME ethnicity appears to have a higher risk of developing COVID-19. This is the first study that adjusted work-related factors (inability to maintain social distancing and inadequate PPE) and comorbidities. Our work supports the imperative for designing and conducting urgent larger studies to understand this risk and plan appropriate mitigation of the risks to health care workers

The global, regional, and national burden of cirrhosis by cause in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (collectively referred to as cirrhosis in this paper) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, although the burden and underlying causes differ across locations and demographic groups. We report on results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 on the burden of cirrhosis and its trends since 1990, by cause, sex, and age, for 195 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from vital registrations, vital registration samples, and verbal autopsies to estimate mortality. We modelled prevalence of total, compensated, and decompensated cirrhosis on the basis of hospital and claims data. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. Estimates are presented as numbers and age-standardised or age-specific rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). All estimates are presented for five causes of cirrhosis: hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol-related liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and other causes. We compared mortality, prevalence, and DALY estimates with those expected according to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as a proxy for the development status of regions and countries.

FINDINGS

In 2017, cirrhosis caused more than 1·32 million (95% UI 1·27-1·45) deaths (440 000 [416 000-518 000; 33·3%] in females and 883 000 [838 000-967 000; 66·7%] in males) globally, compared with less than 899 000 (829 000-948 000) deaths in 1990. Deaths due to cirrhosis constituted 2·4% (2·3-2·6) of total deaths globally in 2017 compared with 1·9% (1·8-2·0) in 1990. Despite an increase in the number of deaths, the age-standardised death rate decreased from 21·0 (19·2-22·3) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 16·5 (15·8-18·1) per 100 000 population in 2017. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardised death rate among GBD super-regions for all years of the study period (32·2 [25·8-38·6] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017), and the high-income super-region had the lowest (10·1 [9·8-10·5] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017). The age-standardised death rate decreased or remained constant from 1990 to 2017 in all GBD regions except eastern Europe and central Asia, where the age-standardised death rate increased, primarily due to increases in alcohol-related liver disease prevalence. At the national level, the age-standardised death rate of cirrhosis was lowest in Singapore in 2017 (3·7 [3·3-4·0] per 100 000 in 2017) and highest in Egypt in all years since 1990 (103·3 [64·4-133·4] per 100 000 in 2017). There were 10·6 million (10·3-10·9) prevalent cases of decompensated cirrhosis and 112 million (107-119) prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis globally in 2017. There was a significant increase in age-standardised prevalence rate of decompensated cirrhosis between 1990 and 2017. Cirrhosis caused by NASH had a steady age-standardised death rate throughout the study period, whereas the other four causes showed declines in age-standardised death rate. The age-standardised prevalence of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH increased more than for any other cause of cirrhosis (by 33·2% for compensated cirrhosis and 54·8% for decompensated cirrhosis) over the study period. From 1990 to 2017, the number of prevalent cases more than doubled for compensated cirrhosis due to NASH and more than tripled for decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH. In 2017, age-standardised death and DALY rates were lower among countries and territories with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

Cirrhosis imposes a substantial health burden on many countries and this burden has increased at the global level since 1990, partly due to population growth and ageing. Although the age-standardised death and DALY rates of cirrhosis decreased from 1990 to 2017, numbers of deaths and DALYs and the proportion of all global deaths due to cirrhosis increased. Despite the availability of effective interventions for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis B and C, they were still the main causes of cirrhosis burden worldwide, particularly in low-income countries. The impact of hepatitis B and C is expected to be attenuated and overtaken by that of NASH in the near future. Cost-effective interventions are required to continue the prevention and treatment of viral hepatitis, and to achieve early diagnosis and prevention of cirrhosis due to alcohol-related liver disease and NASH.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global smoking trends in inflammatory bowel disease: A systematic review of inception cohorts

Background and aims

The effect of smoking on the risk of developing inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) may be heterogeneous across ethnicity and geography. Although trends in smoking for the general population are well described, it is unknown whether these can be extrapolated to the IBD cohort. Smoking prevalence trends specific to the global IBD cohort over time have not been previously reported. This is a systematic review of smoking prevalence specific to the IBD cohort across geography.

Methods

A systematic literature search was conducted on Medline and Embase from January 1^st 1946 to April 5^th 2018 to identify population-based studies assessing the prevalence of smoking at diagnosis in inception cohorts of Crohn’s disease(CD) or ulcerative colitis(UC). Studies that did not report smoking data from time of diagnosis or the year of IBD diagnosis were excluded. Prevalence of smoking in IBD was stratified by geography and across time.

Results

We identified 56 studies that were eligible for inclusion. Smoking prevalence data at diagnosis of CD and UC was collected from twenty and twenty-five countries respectively. Never-smokers in the newly diagnosed CD population in the West has increased over the last two decades, especially in the United Kingdom and Sweden; +26.6% and +11.2% respectively. Never-smokers at CD diagnosis in newly industrialised nations have decreased over the 1990s and 2000s; China (-19.36%). Never-smokers at UC diagnosis also decreased in China; -15.4%. The former-smoker population at UC diagnosis in China is expanding; 11%(1990–2006) to 34%(2011–2013).

Conclusion

There has been a reduction in the prevalence of smoking in the IBD cohort in the West. This is not consistent globally. Although, smoking prevalence has decreased in the general population of newly industrialised nations, this remains an important risk factor with longer term outcomes awaiting translation in both UC and CD.

Management of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: an update for the general physician

Acute upper gastrointestinal bleed (AUGIB) is one of the most common medical emergencies in the UK, with roughly one presentation every 6 min. Despite advances in therapeutics and endoscopy provision, mortality following AUGIB over the last two decades has remained high, with over 9,000 deaths annually in the UK; consequently, several national bodies have published UK-relevant guidelines. Despite this, the 2015 UK National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death in AUGIB highlighted variations in practice, raised concerns regarding suboptimal patient care and released a series of recommendations. This review paper incorporates the latest available evidence and UK-relevant guidelines to summarise the optimal pre-endoscopic, endoscopic, and post-endoscopic approach to and management of non-variceal and variceal AUGIB that will be of practical value to both general physicians and gastroenterologists.

Outcomes following feeding gastrostomy (FG) insertion in patients with learning disability: a retrospective cohort study using the health improvement network (THIN) database

OBJECTIVES

To measure the rates of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) and mortality following feeding gastrostomy (FG) placement in patients with learning disability (LD). Following this to compare these rates between those having LRTI prior to FG placement and those with no recent LRTI.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

The study population included patients with LD undergoing FG placement in the 'The Health Improvement Network' database. Patients with LRTI in the year prior (LYP) to their FG placement were compared with patients without a history of LRTI in the year prior (non-LYP) to FG placement. FG placement and LD were identified using Read codes previously developed by an expert panel.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence rate ratio (IRR) of developing LRTI and mortality following FG, comparing patients with LRTI in the year prior to FG placement to patients without a history of LRTI.

RESULTS

214 patients with LD had a FG inserted including 743.4 person years follow-up. 53.7% were males and the median age was 27.6 (IQR 19.6 to 38.6) years. 27.1% were in the LYP patients. 18.7% had a LRTI in the year following FG, with an estimated incidence rate of 254 per 1000-person years. Over the study period the incidence rate of LRTI in LYP patients was 369 per 1000-person years, in non-LYP patients this was 91 per 1000-person years (adjusted IRR 4.21 (95% CI 2.68 to 6.63) p<0.001). 27.1% of patients died during study follow-up. Incidence rate of death was 80 and 45 per 1000-person year for LYP and non-LYP patients, respectively (adjusted IRR 1.80 (1.00 to 3.23) p=0.05).

CONCLUSION

In LD patients, no clinically meaningful reduction in LRTI incidence was observed following FG placement. Mortality and LRTI were higher in patients with at least one LRTI in the year preceding FG placement, compared with those without a preceding LRTI.

Incidence, morbidity and mortality of patients with achalasia in England: findings from a study of nationwide hospital and primary care data

BACKGROUND

Achalasia is an uncommon condition characterised by failed lower oesophageal sphincter relaxation. Data regarding its incidence, prevalence, disease associations and long-term outcomes are very limited.

METHODS

Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) include demographic and diagnostic data for all English hospital attendances. The Health Improvement Network (THIN) includes the primary care records of 4.5 million UK subjects, representative of national demographics. Both were searched for incident cases between 2006 and 2016 and THIN for prevalent cases. Subjects with achalasia in THIN were compared with age, sex, deprivation tand smoking status matched controls for important comorbidities and mortality.

RESULTS

There were 10 509 and 711 new achalasia diagnoses identified in HES and THIN, respectively. The mean incidence per 100 000 people in HES was 1.99 (95% CI 1.87 to 2.11) and 1.53 (1.42 to 1.64) per 100 000 person-years in THIN. The prevalence in THIN was 27.1 (25.4 to 28.9) per 100 000 population. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were significantly higher in subjects with achalasia (n=2369) compared with controls (n=3865) for: oesophageal cancer (IRR 5.22 (95% CI: 1.88 to 14.45), p<0.001), aspiration pneumonia (13.38 (1.66 to 107.79), p=0.015), lower respiratory tract infection (1.33 (1.05 to 1.70), p=0.02) and mortality (1.33 (1.17 to 1.51), p<0.001). The median time from achalasia diagnosis to oesophageal cancer diagnosis was 15.5 (IQR 20.4) years.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of achalasia is 1.99 per 100 000 population in secondary care data and 1.53 per 100 000 person-years in primary care data. Subjects with achalasia have an increased incidence of oesophageal cancer, aspiration pneumonia, lower respiratory tract infections and higher mortality. Clinicians treating patients with achalasia should be made aware of these associated morbidities and its increased mortality.

The Risk of Inflammatory Bowel Disease in Subjects Presenting With Perianal Abscess: Findings From the THIN Database

BACKGROUND

Perianal abscess [PA] is associated with inflammatory bowel disease [IBD]. The incidence of IBD after a diagnosis of PA and potential predictors of a future diagnosis of IBD are unknown.

METHODS

The Health Improvement Network [THIN] is a primary care database representative of the UK population. Incident cases of PA were identified between 1995 and 2017. Subjects with PA were matched to controls within the same general practice. The primary outcome was a subsequent diagnosis of Crohn's Disease [CD] or ulcerative colitis [UC]. A Cox regression model was used to assess potential predictors of a new diagnosis of CD or UC following PA.

RESULTS

The risk of CD was higher in the PA cohort compared with controls; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 7.51 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.86-11.62), p < 0.0001. The risk of UC was also higher in the PA cohort compared with controls; adjusted HR 2.03 [1.38-2.99], p < 0.0001. Anaemia in men (HR 2.82 [1.34-5.92], p = 0.002), and use of antidiarrhoeal medications (HR 2.70 [1.71-4.25], p < 0.0001) were associated with an increased risk of CD following PA. Anaemia in men (HR 2.58 [1.09-6.07], p = 0.03), diarrhoea (HR 2.18 [1.23-3.85], p = 0.007), and use of anti-diarrhoeal medication (HR 2.27 [1.19-4.30], p = 0.012) were associated with an increased risk of UC following PA.

CONCLUSION

Subjects with PA are at an increased risk of subsequent diagnosis of CD and UC. Clinicians should strongly consider investigation for IBD in young patients presenting with diarrhoea and anaemia [in males] following PA. Future research should discern appropriate screening strategies for this high-risk cohort.

Review article: managing the adverse events caused by anti-TNF therapy in inflammatory bowel disease

BACKGROUND

Biological therapy is currently widely used to treat IBD. Infliximab, adalimumab and golimumab are currently licensed anti-TNF therapies. Biosimilar anti-TNF monoclonal antibodies are increasingly used. Anti-TNF therapies are widely used and their adverse effects are well characterised, and may cause significant morbidity and mortality in a small proportion of exposed patients. Gastroenterologists need to understand the mechanisms for these effects, recognise these swiftly and manage such events appropriately.

AIM

To cover the range of potential adverse reactions as a result of biologic therapy and specifically management of these events.

METHODS

A Medline and Pubmed search was undertaken. Search terms included were "anti-TNF," "infliximab" or "adalimumab" or "golimumab" combined with the keywords "ulcerative colitis" or "Crohn's disease" or "inflammatory bowel disease" and then narrowed to articles containing the keywords "complications," "side effects" or "adverse events" or "safety profile." International guidelines were also reviewed where relevant.

RESULTS

Adverse events discussed in this review include infusion reactions, blood disorders and infections (including bacterial, viral, fungal and opportunistic infections) as well as autoimmune, dermatological disorders, cardiac and neurological conditions. Malignancies including solid organ, haematological and those linked to viral disease are discussed.

CONCLUSIONS

Anti-TNF therapy has wide-ranging effects on the immune system resulting in a spectrum of potential adverse events in a small proportion of patients. Research advances are improving the understanding, recognition and management of these adverse events.

Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a guide for nurses

This article outlines latest evidence-based care for patients with acute upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding. It aims to help gastroenterology and general medical ward nurses plan nursing interventions and understand the diagnostic treatment options available. Acute upper GI bleeding can present as variceal or non-variceal bleeding and has a high death rate. Endoscopy is used for diagnosis and to provide therapy, prior to which the patient should be adequately resuscitated and assessed. Various therapies can be initiated at endoscopy, depending on the source of bleeding. If bleeding continues in spite of these therapies, further interventions such as the Sengstaken tube, oesophageal stents, radiological or surgical treatments may be required. After endoscopy, it is important to have a plan for ongoing treatment. Patients may require acid suppression treatment or eradication of Helicobacter pylori as part of their treatment plan. They may in additional require correction of their haemoglobin levels and follow-up endoscopy. It is essential that nurses caring for such patients are aware of the current UK guidance and help patients to adhere to agreed treatment plans.