Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Evaluating biomarkers for contrast-induced nephropathy following coronary interventions: an umbrella review on meta-analyses

BACKGROUND

Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) is a form of acute kidney injury (AKI) occurring in patients undergoing cardiac catheterization, such as coronary angiography (CAG) or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Although the conventional criterion for CIN detection involves a rise in creatinine levels within 72 h after contrast media injection, several limitations exist in this definition. Up to now, various meta-analyses have been undertaken to assess the accuracy of different biomarkers of CIN prediction. However, the existing body of research lacks a cohesive overview. To address this gap, a comprehensive umbrella review was necessary to consolidate and summarize the outcomes of prior meta-analyses. This umbrella study aimed to offer a current, evidence-based understanding of the prognostic value of biomarkers in predicting CIN.

METHODS

A systematic search of international databases, including PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science, from inception to December 12, 2023, was conducted to identify meta-analyses assessing biomarkers for CIN prediction. Our own meta-analysis was performed by extracting data from the included studies. Sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio were assessed using Meta-Disc and CMA softwares.

RESULTS

Twelve studies were ultimately included in the umbrella review. The results revealed that neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) exhibited the highest area under the curve (AUC), followed by cystatin-C, urinary kidney injury molecule-1 (uKIM-1), and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) with AUCs of 0.91, 0.89, 0.85, and 0.80, respectively. NGAL also demonstrated the highest positive likelihood ratio [effect size (ES): 6.02, 95% CI 3.86-9.40], followed by cystatin-C, uKIM-1, and BNP [ES: 4.35 (95% CI 2.85-6.65), 3.58 (95% CI 2.75-4.66), and 2.85 (95% CI 2.13-3.82), respectively]. uKIM-1 and cystatin-C had the lowest negative likelihood ratio, followed by NGAL and BNP [ES: 0.25 (95% CI 0.17-0.37), ES: 0.25 (95% CI 0.13-0.50), ES: 0.26 (95% CI 0.17-0.41), and ES: 0.39 (0.28-0.53) respectively]. NGAL emerged as the biomarker with the highest diagnostic odds ratio for CIN, followed by cystatin-C, uKIM-1, BNP, gamma-glutamyl transferase, hypoalbuminemia, contrast media volume to creatinine clearance ratio, preprocedural hyperglycemia, red cell distribution width (RDW), hyperuricemia, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, C-reactive protein (CRP), high-sensitivity CRP, and low hematocrit (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

NGAL demonstrated superior diagnostic performance, exhibiting the highest AUC, positive likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio among biomarkers for CIN, followed by cystatin-C, and uKIM-1. These findings underscore the potential clinical utility of NGAL, cystatin-C and uKIM-1 in predicting and assessing CIN.

Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence in the Iranian blood donors: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The present systematic review and meta-analysis was done to assess the rate of Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii) exposure among Iranian healthy blood donors.

Methods

We searched four English (PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Science Direct) and two Persian databases (Magiran and SID) as well as Google Scholar as a specialized article search engine using specific keywords for relevant papers from the inception up to November 30, 2023.

Results

In total, 19 studies enrolling 8226 apparently healthy blood donors were examined regarding T. gondii-specific IgG and/or IgM antibodies, among which 2666 [32.9% (95% CI: 25.3%-41.6%)], 168 [1.4% (95% CI: 0.9%-2.1%)], and 83 [1.7% (95% CI: 1.3%-2.1%)] subjects were seropositive regarding IgG, IgM, and both IgG/IgM antibodies, respectively. Five risk factors were significantly associated with T. gondii seroprevalence, including gender (OR = 1.98; 95% CI: 1.52-2.58; P < 0.001), contact with cat (OR = 2.41; 95% CI: 1.70-3.41; P < 0.001), contact with soil (OR = 2.83; 95% CI: 1.07-7.45; P = 0.035), consuming raw/undercooked meat (OR = 1.95; 95% CI: 1.03-3.70; P = 0.039), and raw/unwashed vegetables (OR = 1.70; 95% CI: 1.25-2.31; P = 0.001).

Conclusion

A moderate rate of T. gondii exposure was found in the Iranian blood donors, with the association of several risk factors, including gender, contact with cat, contact with soil, consumption of unwashed vegetables and/or undercooked meat. Still, more studies are recommended regarding T. gondii exposure among blood donors in Iran.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence and patterns of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis following vestibular schwannoma surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) is a potentially serious complication following surgical treatment of vestibular schwannoma, a benign tumor originating from Schwann cells of the vestibulocochlear nerve. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of CVST following surgical treatment of vestibular schwannoma and the factors contributing to its occurrence.

METHOD

Two independent researchers searched the global databases of PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and the Cochrane Library up to September 01, 2023. We employed a random-effects model for data analysis. Heterogeneity was evaluated using the I2 test. To assess the quality of the studies meeting our inclusion criteria, we employed the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist.

RESULTS

We included 23 articles in this meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of CVST after vestibular schwannoma surgery was 6.4% (95%CI 3.4-11.5%). The pooled prevalence of CVST following the retrosigmoid (RS), translabyrinthine (TL), and middle cranial fossa (MCF) approaches was 4.8% (95%CI 2.0-11.0%), 9.6% (95%CI 4.3-20.3%) and 9.9% (95%CI 1.6-42.2%), respectively, revealing a significant difference between the TL and the RS approaches (Odds ratio = 2.10, 95%CI 1.45-3.04, P < 0.001). The sigmoid sinus exhibited the highest post-operative thrombosis rate (7.9%), surpassing the transverse sinus (3.7%) and involvement of both sigmoid and transverse sinuses (1.6%), respectively. No significant associations were found with demographic or surgical factors.

CONCLUSION

In the current meta-analysis, we identified a 6.4% CVST prevalence following vestibular schwannoma surgery, with varying rates depending on the surgical approach. No significant associations with patient or surgical factors were found, emphasizing the need for heightened clinical vigilance and further research in this context.

TRAIL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO ID: CRD42023453513.

Low-level occupational exposure to BTEX and dyschromatopsia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives. The present study aimed to assess whether occupational exposure to low concentrations of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene (BTEX) is associated with color vision impairment. Methods. We queried PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science and ProQuest as the main databases, as well as gray literature such as Google Scholar. A random-effects model was used to assess relative risk. A funnel plot was created to assess publication bias. Meta-regression analysis was applied to identify variables that explain the between-study variation in the reported risk estimate. Results. An overall standardized mean difference of 0.529 (95% confidence interval [0.269, 0.788]; p < 0.0001) was obtained in the random-effects model, which corresponded to a medium-size effect. Duration and the levels of exposure to benzene, toluene and xylene were the significant predictors of the magnitude of the combined risk estimate. Chronic exposure to low levels of BTEX was associated with dyschromatopsia determined by the color confusion index. Conclusions. The impairments can occur even at exposures lower than the occupational exposure limits of BTEX. However, there are several flaws in the determination of workers' exposure, which did not allow to establish how low a level of these chemicals can cause color vision impairment.

Prevalence and associated factors for asymptomatic microscopic hematuria in adults in the PERSIAN Guilan cohort study (PGCS)

Although hematuria is not life-threatening, some could be the result of a more severe condition. Our objectives are to report on the prevalence and risk factors of asymptomatic microscopic hematuria (AMH) in the prospective epidemiological research studies of the Iranian adults (PERSIAN) Guilan cohort study (PGCS) population. This cross-sectional study was conducted from 2014 to 2017 and consisted of 10,520 individuals aged 35-70. Data collection was conducted using a questionnaire during a face-to-face interview. The urine analyses (UA) were done up to 2 h after sample collection. Based on a urine microscopy evaluation, AMH is defined as 3 or more red blood cells per high power field (HPF). Simple and multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted to explore factors associated with AMH. The prevalence of AMH in this study was 34.1% and was more prevalent in participants of older ages and female gender as well as those with low educational level, underweight-body mass index (BMI), high physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, and kidney stone disease. On the other hand, obesity, opium, and diabetes decreased the likelihood of AMH. The results of the present study shed light on the prevalence and risk factors of AMH and suggested that a significant portion of the study population is affected by AMH. Considering the lack of consensus on a definite clinical guideline for AMH in our country, the results of the present study could be used to design a unit algorithm for screening and therapy of AMH.

The Value of Microbiome-targeted Therapy on Lipid Indices of Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: An Umbrella Meta-analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

;Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is considered a global health challenge with increasing prevalence in recent years. One of the key elements in managing T2DM patients is controlling their lipid profile. Recent studies suggest microbiome-targeted therapy (MTT) as a treatment strategy for enhancing lipid profiles in these patients.

OBJECTIVE

The current study aimed to investigate the impact of MTT on lipid indices of T2DM patients by performing an umbrella approach.

METHODS

Three international databases including PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Sciences were searched from inception up to April 2023 to find meta-analyses evaluating the impact of MTT (prebiotics, probiotics, and synbiotics) on the lipid profile of T2DM patients. Two independent researchers extracted data from the relevant meta-analyses. To find the source of heterogeneity various subgroup analyses were performed. Comprehensive Meta-Analyses (CMA) software version 3 was utilized for the final analysis.

RESULTS

Based on the results of the current study MTT had a significant effect on total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) (ES: - 0.092; 95%CI: -0.111, -0.074; P< 0.001, ES: -0.109; 95%CI: -0.137, -0.081; P< 0.001, ES: -0.036; 95%CI: -0.068, -0.005; P= 0.024, ES: 0.109; 95%CI: 0.056, 0.162; P<0.000, respectively). In subgroup analysis, probiotics showed the most substantial effect on all lipid biomarkers.

CONCLUSION

This research has provided promising insights into the potential impact of MTT on lipid levels in patients diagnosed with T2DM. Notably, MTT had the greatest impact on HDL levels, followed by TG, TC, and LDL. As a result of our study, MTT is recommended as an adjunctive therapeutic option for T2DM treatment due to its capability to regulate lipid profiles. Collapse

Key Words

• Diabetes mellitus
• lipids
• meta-analysis.
• prebiotic
• probiotic
• synbiotic
• umbrella review

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MESH Headings Collapse

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Affiliation(s)

Mohammad-Hossein Keivanlou Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
Ehsan Amini-Salehi Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
Soheil Hassanipour Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
Reza Zare Student Research Committee, Larestan University of Medical Sciences, Larestan, Iran
Erfan Mohammadi-Vajari Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
Mohammad Hashemi Student Research Committee, Faculty of Medicine, Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences, Bandar Abbas, Iran
Arsalan Salari Cardiovascular Diseases Research Center, Department of Cardiology, Heshmat Hospital, School of Medicine, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
Parham Porteghali Department of Internal Medicine, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran

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The association between various viral infections and multiple sclerosis: An umbrella review on systematic review and meta-analysis

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is one of the immune-mediated demyelinating disorders. Multiple components, including the environment and genetics, are possible factors in the pathogenesis of MS. Also, it can be said that infections are a key component of the host's response to MS development. Finally, we evaluated the relationship between different pathogens and MS disease in this umbrella research. We systematically collected and analysed multiple meta-analyses focused on one particular topic. We utilised the Scopus, PubMed, and Web of Science databases starting with inception until 30 May 2023. The methodological quality of the analysed meta-analysis has been determined based on Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews 2 and Grade, and graph construction and statistical analysis were conducted using Comprehensive Meta-Analysis. The Confidence Interval of effect size was 95% in meta-analyses, and p < 0.05 indicated a statistically meaningful relationship. The included studies evaluated the association between MS and 12 viruses containing SARS-CoV-2, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), Hepatitis B virus, varicella-zoster virus (VZV), human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6), HHV-7, HHV-8, HSV-1, HSV-2, Cytomegalovirus, Human Papillomavirus, and influenza. SARS-CoV-2, with a 3.74 odds ratio, has a significantly more potent negative effect on MS among viral infections. After that, EBV, HHV-6, HSV-2, and VZV, respectively, with 3.33, 2.81, 1.76, and 1.72 odds ratios, had a significantly negative relationship with MS (p < 0.05). Although the theoretical evidence mostly indicates that EBV has the greatest effect on MS, recent epidemiological studies have challenged this conclusion and put forward possibilities that SARS-CoV-2 is the culprit. Hence, it was necessary to investigate the effects of SARS-CoV-2 and EBV on MS.

Survival rate of cervical cancer in Asian countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Cancer is one of the main causes of death, and cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer and the fourth leading cause of death from malignancy among women. Knowing the survival rate is used to evaluate the success of current treatments and care. This study was conducted to assess the survival rate of cervical cancer in Asia.

METHODS

This systematic survey was conducted on four international databases, including Medline/PubMed, ProQuest, Scopus, and Web of Knowledge, and includes manuscripts that were published until the end of August 2021. Selected keywords were searched for international databases including cervical neoplasms [mesh], survival analysis or survival or survival rate, Asian countries (name of countries). The Newcastle-Ottawa Qualitative Evaluation Form was used for cohort studies to evaluate the quality of the articles. The analysis process was performed to evaluate the heterogeneity of the studies using the Cochran test and I2 statistics. Additionally, a meta-regression analysis was performed based on the year of the study.

RESULTS

A total of 1956 articles were selected and reviewed based on their title. The results showed that 110 articles met the inclusion criteria. According to the randomized model, the 1, 3, 5, and 10-year survival rates of cervical cancer were 76.62% (95% Confidence Interval (CI), 72.91_80.34), 68.77% (95% CI, 64.32_73.21), 62.34% (95% CI, 58.10_66.59), and 61.60% (95% CI, 52.31_70.89), respectively. Additionally, based on the results of meta-regression analysis, there was an association between the year of the study and the survival rate, elucidating that the survival rate of cervical cancer has increased over the years.

CONCLUSIONS

Results can provide the basic information needed for effective policy making, and development of public health programs for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of cervical cancer.

Efficacy and safety of licorice (Glycyrrhiza glabra) in moderately ill patients with COVID-19: a randomized controlled trial

Licorice extract (glycyrrhizin), a potent antiviral, anti-inflammatory, and antioxidant remedy, is a potential therapeutic option for COVID-19. We evaluated the efficacy and safety of licorice in patients with moderate COVID-19. In this study, 60 patients with confirmed COVID-19 were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive licorice (at a dose of 760 mg three times a day for seven days) or control groups. The primary outcomes were SPO2, body temperature, and respiratory rate (RR) after the end of the intervention. The findings indicated that SPO2, body temperature, and RR had no significant difference between the groups at the end of the intervention. However, CRP and ALT improved in the licorice group toward the baseline. The number of patients with worse prognoses, LOS, mortality, and the incidence of adverse events were not different between the groups at the end of the study. Licorice had no beneficial effect on the clinical symptoms of COVID-19. Moreover, this intervention demonstrated a safe profile of adverse events. The confirmation of the results of this preparatory trial requires more detailed multiple-center trials with a larger sample size.

Survival rate of thyroid cancer in the Asian countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis study

PURPOSE

Overall, thyroid cancer is the most common endocrine malignancy. This cancer is fifth most common cancer among adult women and the second most common cancer in women over 50 years old and it occurs in women 3 times more than men. The present systematic review and meta-analysis were designed with the aim of determining the 5-year survival rate of thyroid cancer in Asian countries in 2022.

METHODS

The current study is a systematic review and meta-analysis of thyroid cancer survival rates in Asian countries. Researchers in the study searched for articles published in six international databases: PubMed/Medline, EMBASE, Scopus, Google Scholar, ISI (Web of Knowledge), and ProQuest until July 03, 2022. A checklist (The Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Form) has been prepared in previous studies to evaluate the quality of articles.

RESULTS

In general, 38 articles were entered for the meta-analysis. The 5-year survival rate was 95.3%, with a 95% confidence interval of 93.5% to 96.6%. The year of study is a cause of variability in results of 5-year (Reg Coef = 0.145, P < 0.001). According to the results, an increased survival rate across the study period was observed. Human Development Index was a cause of variability in results of 5-year survival rates (Reg Coef = 12.420, P < 0.001). The results of Table 2 showed that women have 4% more 5-year survival rate than men (Hazard ratio: 1.05 CI: 95% 1.04-1.06)).

CONCLUSION

In general, the 5-year survival of thyroid cancer in Asian countries was higher than in European countries, but it is at a lower level than in the United States.

Survival rate of vaginal cancer in Asian countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Vaginal cancer is one of the major causes of mortality in women, which mostly takes place in low- and middle-income countries. Assessing the survival rate of vaginal cancer is essential to investigate the success rate of current treatments and screening tools. This study aims to determine the survival rate of vaginal cancer in Asia.

Methods

This systematic review was carried out using four international databases, including Medline/Pubmed, ProQuest, Scopus, Web of Knowledge, and also Google Scholar. Articles were investigated up to the end of August 2021. The authors utilized the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to evaluate the quality of the articles. Evaluating the papers for heterogeneity was performed using the Cochrane test and I² statistic. Meta-regression analysis was also applied based on the year of the study.

Results

Three articles (13 records) fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Based on the random model, the overall 5-year survival rate was 74.63%. Also, the rates of survival in relation to the type of treatment including chemotherapy, radiotherapy, or other modalities, were 78.53, 78.44, and 68.54%, respectively. According to meta-regression analysis, no correlation was found between the survival rate and the year of the study.

Conclusion

The vaginal cancer survival rate is lower in Asian countries compared to that of developed countries. Increasing patient survival rates in such countries is crucial by implementing newer diagnostic tools, advanced surgical techniques, and goal-oriented treatments. Early diagnosis in lower stages and educating the populations about risk factors and preventative measures are also necessary for raising the rate of survival.

Family history of cancer as a potential risk factor for colorectal cancer in EMRO countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The current meta-analysis aims to investigate the existing articles that evaluated the implications of a positive family history of cancer on the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) within the EMRO countries. We employed PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science as search databases for this study. To assess the quality of the selected articles, we utilized the Newcastle-Ottawa (NCO) checklist. In comparing the impact of a family history of cancer between the case and control groups, we computed the odds ratio (OR) along with its corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Finally, 27 articles were selected for meta-analysis. The result of the meta-analysis showed a significant association between the presence of a family history of CRC or any cancers and CRC (OR 2.21; 95% CI 1.54-3.17; P < 0.001, OR 1.76; 95% CI 1.27-2.42; P = 0.001, respectively). Our findings underscore the critical importance of timely screening and early identification for individuals with a family history of cancer. By fostering close coordination among healthcare facilities and actively promoting the adoption of screening methods for early detection, we have the potential to significantly reduce both mortality rates and financial burdens of CRC on the general public, ultimately leading to enhanced patient outcomes.

The effectiveness of walking exercise on the bowel preparation before colonoscopy: a single blind randomized clinical trial study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Bowel preparation is a crucial factor affecting the diagnostic accuracy of colonoscopy, and few randomized control trials evaluated enhancement in bowel preparation. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of walking exercises on bowel preparation before a colonoscopy procedure.

METHODS

The present study is a single-blind randomized controlled trial involving 262 patients scheduled for colonoscopy procedures. These patients were randomly assigned to two groups: an intervention group (n = 131) and a control group (n = 131). In the intervention group, participants followed a predetermined plan that included the consumption of specific liquids and foods, bisacodyl pills, polyethylene glycol powder, and a regimen of walking exercises in preparation for their colonoscopy. Conversely, individuals in the control group followed the same regimen but were not instructed to engage in walking exercises. On the day of the colonoscopy, both groups were assessed for their level of physical activity using a foot counter. Additionally, an experienced gastroenterologist evaluated and compared the bowel preparation between the two groups using the Boston Bowel Preparation Scale (BBPS).

RESULTS

The number of footsteps recorded in the two groups exhibited a significant difference (P < 0.001). Although there was no statistically significant difference between the intervention and control groups in terms of mean BBPS scores (6.26 ± 1.9 vs. 6.29 ± 1.9, P = 0.416), individuals who took more than 6900 steps had significantly higher BBPS scores compared to those with fewer than 6900 footsteps (6.62 ± 1.8 vs. 5.92 ± 1.9, P = 0.003).In the univariate analysis, BBPS was found to be significantly associated with individuals under the age of 50 (OR: 2.45, 95% CI: 1.30-4.61, P = 0.006) and smoking status (OR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.17-0.94, P = 0.043). In the multivariate analysis, the relationship between BBPS and age below 50 and smoking remained significant (OR: 2.50, 95% CI: 1.30-4.70, P = 0.005, and OR: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.16-0.93, P = 0.034, respectively).

CONCLUSION

A higher number of footsteps taken especially more than 6900 can significantly enhance bowel preparation; however, walking exercise as an intervention before colonoscopy is not significantly associated with BBPS. Also, older people and smokers seem to have fewer benefits from walking exercises for bowel preparation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN32724024 (Registration date:22/08/2018).

Unusual herpetic reactivation in a young female following botox injection: a case report study

BACKGROUND

Botox injections are commonly used for cosmetic and therapeutic purposes because they temporarily paralyze muscles, reduce wrinkles, and alleviate certain medical conditions. Although generally considered safe and effective, Botox injections may cause potential complications. While herpes reactivation is more commonly associated with immunosuppressive therapies, such as chemotherapy or corticosteroid use, its association with Botox injection is poorly documented.

CASE PRESENTATION

A 33-year-old woman presented with progressive painful rashes and vesicles on her forehead, scalp, and right upper eyelid, accompanied by fever and malaise following a Botox injection to treat wrinkles. A positive Tzanck smear test result confirmed the diagnosis of herpes infection. The patient was treated with antiviral medication, and her symptoms gradually regressed over several days.

CONCLUSIONS

Although herpes reactivation is more commonly associated with immunosuppressive therapies, few cases of herpes zoster and herpes simplex following Botox injection have been reported. The pathogenesis of herpes reactivation following Botox injection is unclear; however, it has been hypothesized that the Botox protein is a potent antigen that may activate the cellular immune system, making it easier for the virus to reactivate. Healthcare providers should be aware of this potential complication and consider it when evaluating patients who present with painful rashes following Botox injections. In addition, individuals who want to receive Botox injections should be informed of this complication. The diagnosis of herpetic infection should be made promptly, and antiviral therapy should be initiated to minimize the risk of complications. Further research is needed to better understand the pathogenesis and risk factors for herpes following Botox injection and to develop strategies for preventing and managing this complication.

The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Adult Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer in 204 Countries and Territories: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Importance

Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning.

Objective

To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.

Evidence Review

The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.

Findings

In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts.

The impact of gut microbiome-targeted therapy on liver enzymes in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: an umbrella meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is considered the leading cause of chronic liver disease worldwide. To date, no confirmed medication is available for the treatment of NAFLD. Previous studies showed the promising effects of gut microbiome-targeted therapies; however, the results were controversial and the strength of the evidence and their clinical significance remained unclear.

OBJECTIVES

This umbrella study summarizes the results of meta-analyses investigating the effects of probiotics, prebiotics, and synbiotics on liver enzymes in the NAFLD population.

DATA SOURCE

A comprehensive search of the PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases was done up to December 20, 2022, to find meta-analyses on randomized control trials reporting the effects of gut microbial therapy on patients with NAFLD.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two independent investigators extracted data on the characteristics of meta-analyses, and any discrepancies were resolved by a third researcher. The AMSTAR2 checklist was used for evaluating the quality of studies.

DATA ANALYSIS

A final total of 15 studies were included in the analysis. Results showed that microbiome-targeted therapies could significantly reduce levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT; effect size [ES], -10.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], -13.29, -7.14; P < 0.001), aspartate aminotransferase (AST; ES, -8.86; 95%CI, -11.39, -6.32; P < 0.001), and γ-glutamyltransferase (ES, -5.56; 95%CI, -7.92, -3.31; P < 0.001) in patients with NAFLD. Results of subgroup analysis based on intervention showed probiotics could significantly reduce levels of AST (ES, -8.69; 95%CI, -11.01, -6.37; P < 0.001) and ALT (ES, -9.82; 95%CI, -11.59, -8.05; P < 0.001). Synbiotics could significantly reduce levels of AST (ES, -11.40; 95%CI, -13.91, -8.88; P < 0.001) and ALT (ES, -11.87; 95%CI, -13.80, -9.95; P < 0.001). Prebiotics had no significant effects on AST and ALT levels (ES, -2.96; 95%CI, -8.12, 2.18, P = 0.259; and ES, -4.69; 95%CI, -13.53, 4.15, P = 0.299, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Gut microbiome-targeted therapies could be a promising therapeutic approach in the improvement of hepatic damage in patients with NAFLD. However, more studies are needed to better determine the best bacterial strains, duration of treatment, and optimum dosage of gut microbiome-targeted therapies in the treatment of the NAFLD population.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration no. CRD42022346998.

Gamma glutamyl transferase as a biomarker to predict contrast-induced nephropathy among patients with acute coronary syndrome undergoing coronary interventions: a meta-analysis

The third most frequent reason for hospitalized acute kidney injury is contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN). Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary angiography (CAG) are two interventions that can result in CIN. In this study, we sought to determine how well gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) can predict CIN following CAG and PCI.

METHOD

Two researchers searched through PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science in November 2022 to find articles that examined GGT levels in CIN patients following PCI or CAG. To rate the quality of the studies, the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist was employed. The Cochran test and I2 statistics were utilized to assess study heterogeneity. To calculate the number of participants required to reject the null hypothesis, power analysis was used. We evaluated the epidemiologic strength of the results using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE). The authors used Comprehensive Meta-analysis Version 3 to summarize the results.

RESULTS

GGT was shown to be considerably greater in patients with CIN according to the meta-analysis's findings (odds ratio: 3.21, 95% CI: 1.26-8.15, P=0.014); nevertheless, the findings were accompanied by significant heterogeneity (I2=91.93%, P<0.001). Although the relationship between CIN and GGT was power full regarding power analysis (1- β =1, number of effect sizes=4, the average number per group=336), very low quality of evidence was observed regarding GRADE criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest the GGT level may be a predictor of contrast-induced nephropathy in patients having cardiac catheterization; however, more research is required to prove the epidemiological validity.

The Prevalence of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Iranian Children and Adult Population: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the world's most common etiology of chronic liver disease. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we estimated the prevalence of NAFLD in the Iranian children and adult population.

Methods

A comprehensive search of five international databases, including PubMed, ISI/WOS, ProQuest, Scopus, and Google Scholar, was done from inception to Nov 2022. Studies on NAFLD patients and their risk factors were selected for meta-analysis. The quality of the included studies was assessed by The Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Critical Appraisal Checklist for cross-sectional, and cohort studies. The heterogeneity between studies was investigated using Cochran test and I2 statistics. Random and fixed effect models were used for heterogenic and non-heterogenic studies, respectively. We used Comprehensive Meta-Analysis version 3 for conducting meta-analysis.

Results

Twenty studies were finally included. The total prevalence of NAFLD in children, boys, and girls was 6.7% (95% CI: 0.02-0.18), 12.5% (95% CI: 0.04-0.29) and, 10.1% (95% CI: 0.04-0.21), respectively. The total prevalence of NAFLD in obese children, obese boys, and obese girls was 42% (95% CI: 0.18-0.69), 44% (95% CI: 0.13-0.80), and 33 % (95% CI: 0.13-0.62), respectively. The total prevalence of NAFLD in adults was 36.9% (95% CI: 0.31-0.42). The prevalence of NAFLD in men and women was 33.8% (95% CI: 0.27-0.41) and 29.9% (95% CI: 0.21-0.40), respectively.

Conclusion

NAFLD prevalence in Iranian adults and obese children is considerable; however, data about the children population was insufficient.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Association between smoking and colorectal cancer in Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office (EMRO): A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Smoking poses a significant risk for colorectal cancer (CRC), considered the third leading reason for cancer-related deaths worldwide. However, there has been limited research on the relationship between smoking and CRC in the Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office (EMRO). Therefore, a meta-analysis was conducted to combine available data and gain a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between smoking and CRC in EMRO.

Methods

Two independent researchers searched PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science until December 2022. The included studies were checked for risk of bias administering the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Heterogeneity was evaluated using I2 statistics and the Cochrane test. Publication bias was determined through funnel plot analysis and Egger's regression test. Additionally, a meta-regression analysis explored the impact of a country's Human Development Index (HDI) on the relationship between smoking and CRC.

Results

The final analysis included 26 studies, revealing a significant association between smoking and CRC (OR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.11 - 1.78; P = 0.004). Moreover, smoking had a more pronounced adverse effect on CRC in countries with higher HDIs compared to those with lower HDIs (OR = 1.30; 95% CI: 0.99 - 1.71; P = 0.054).

Conclusions

Our findings underscore the importance of implementing smoking cessation programs and policies in EMRO countries, as they demonstrate a positive relationship between smoking and the risk of CRC. Furthermore, the results suggest that a country's level of human development may influence the association between smoking and CRC. Further research is needed to investigate this potential connection and develop targeted public health interventions.

The Relationship between Air Pollution and Brain Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

There is very little epidemiological evidence on the effects of ambient air pollution on brain tumor risk. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between exposure to air pollution and the incidence of brain tumors.

Methods

A comprehensive literature search in five international databases, including PubMed/Medline, ProQuest, Scopus, Embase, and ISI/WOS on April 15, 2019, was conducted. The methodology of the present study was based on the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis) statement. The Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Form was used to evaluate the quality of the selected papers.

Results

Five studies that measured adult brain tumors as well as their long-term exposure to at least one of the pollutants criteria for air pollution, PM_2.5 absorbance, and proximity to traffic (Trafnear) were reviewed. The results showed that the pooled relative risk (RR) for incidence of brain tumor and long term exposure to Trafnear, PM_2.5, PM_2.5 absorbance, O₃ and NOx were RR = 1.07, (95% CI 0.99-1.16), P = 0.079, for Trafnear; RR = 0.90, (95% CI 0.80-1.00), P = 0.064 for PM_2.5; RR = 1.63, (95% CI 1.04-2.55), P = 0.031 for PM_2.5 absorbance; RR = 1.3, (95% CI 1.03-1.6), P = 0.023 for O₃; and RR = 1.16, (95% CI 0.93-1.45), P = 0.173 for NOx. Exposure to other air pollutants had no statistically significant association with brain tumor incidence.

Conclusion

The results showed that exposure to air pollutants, such as O₃ and PM_2.5 absorbance, had the highest correlation with brain tumor incidence. They also showed an absence of correlation between exposure to certain pollutants (SO₂, CO, NO₂, PM₁₀, PM_2.5) and brain tumor incidence.

Survival rate of ovarian cancer in Asian countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Ovarian cancer is amongst one of the most commonly occurring cancers affecting women, and the leading cause of gynecologic related cancer death. Its poor prognosis and high mortality rates can be attributed to the absence of specific signs and symptoms until advance stages, which frequently leads to late diagnosis. Survival rate of patients diagnosed with ovarian cancer can be used in order to better assess current standard of care; the aim of this study is to evaluate the survival rate of ovarian cancer patients in Asia.

METHODS

Systematic review was performed on articles that were published by the end of August 2021 in five international databases, including Medline / PubMed, ProQuest, Scopus, Web of Knowledge, and Google Scholar. The Newcastle-Ottawa quality evaluation form was used for cohort studies to evaluate the quality of the articles. The Cochran-Q and I² tests were used to calculate the heterogeneity of the studies. The Meta-regression analysis was also done according to when the study was published.

RESULTS

A total of 667 articles were reviewed, from which 108 were included in this study because they passed the criteria. Based on a randomized model, the survival rates of ovarian cancer after 1, 3 and 5 years were respectively 73.65% (95% CI, 68.66-78.64), 61.31% (95% CI, 55.39-67.23) and 59.60% (95% CI, 56.06-63.13). Additionally, based on meta-regression analysis, there was no relationship between the year of study and survival rate.

CONCLUSIONS

The 1-year survival rate was higher than that of 3- and 5-year for ovarian cancer. This study provides invaluable information that can not only help establish better standard of care for treatment of ovarian cancer, but also assist in development of superior health interventions for prevention and treatment of the disease.

Prevalence of hypertension in Iran: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis of community-based studies

Background

Hypertension (HTN) is one of the primary risk factors for heart disease and stroke worldwide. The present meta-analysis was aimed to systematically review and statistically estimate the prevalence rate of pre-hypertension (PHTN) and HTN in the Iranian child/adolescent and adult age groups.

Methods

In this study, four International databases, including PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane, as well as three Iranian databases, including SID, Magiran, and IranMedex, were separately investigated for articles published before January 2021. Also, we estimated the pooled effect size for the prevalence of PHTN and HTN in children/adolescent and adult age groups. Stata software (version 14.0) was used for all statistical analyses.

Results

From a total of 1185 articles found in database searches, fifty-one were included in the meta-analysis. The prevalence of HTN in the Iranian adult population was 26.26% (25.11 % and 26.22 % for women and men, respectively). Meanwhile, the prevalence of PHTN and HTN in the child/adolescent age group was 8.97% (95% CI 7.33 - 10.61) and 8.98% (95% CI 7.59 - 10.36), respectively.

Conclusions

This study provides information which can be used for various purposes, including study designing. Further nationwide surveys should be carried out to obtain accurate information on the HTN prevalence rate, particularly based on the American College of Cardiology /American Heart Association guidelines in the Iranian population.

Endothelial function assessment by flow-mediated dilation of the brachial artery in acute kidney injury and chronic kidney disease

Background

Endothelial dysfunction has a significant role in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular events in patients with kidney dysfunction. The present study aimed to compare the level of endothelial dysfunction in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and acute kidney injury (AKI) by brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD) technique. Also, we sought to find whether this non-invasive technique may assist in accurately distinguishing the acute or chronic nature of kidney failure in patients presenting with uremia for the first time.

Methods

Demographic and medical characteristics, and laboratory and renal ultrasonography data of the patients with AKI and CKD were collected and compared with a control group. Brachial artery FMD was measured using a Toshiba aplio 300 device with a 7.5 MHz linear probe.

Results

In a total of 175 patients with a mean (SD) age of 55.96(15.54) years, FMD% was significantly lower in the CKD and AKI patients compared to the control group (Mean±SD: 16.28%±10.52%), 16.28 %±4.35%, and 24.24±5.71, respectively, p<0.001). Among the different causes of AKI, contrast-induced nephropathy (10.78%±1.75%), volume depletion (14.87%±1.22%), and post-renal AKI (15.96%±1.54%) had the lowest levels of FMD. Also, a significant correlation between FMD and eGFR (r=0.26, P<0.001), serum Hb (r=0.18, P=0.013), Na (r=0.19, P=0.011), BUN (r=-0.21, P=0.005) and Cr (r=- 0.13, P=0.084) was reported.

Conclusion

Compared to the control group, CKD and AKI patients showed greater levels of endothelial dysfunction as evidenced by lower brachial artery FMD. However, the FMD technique did not appear to be a practical method in differentiating CKD and AKI in patients presenting with uremia for the first time.

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

RESULTS

We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

CONCLUSIONS

As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

Epidemiologic Profile of Microscopic Hematuria in Iran: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Hematuria is one of the most common symptoms in nephrology and urology. Due to the lack of extensive meta-analysis studies on the epidemiology of hematuria in Iran, this study was conducted to determine the epidemiological status of hematuria in Iran. Methods: In Sep 2020, researchers studied six international databases such as PubMed, ISI/WOS, ProQuest, Embase, Scopus, and Google Scholar for English papers and Iranian databases (SID and MagIran) for Persian papers. Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) checklist was used to review and control the quality of articles. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed by Cochran's test and its composition using I2 statistics. Results: After several screening phase, the number of 25 article included to the final analysis. The prevalence of hematuria in the general population and children, in Iran were estimated at 16.4% (95% CI, - 0.05-37.9) and 1.6% (95% CI, 0.9-2.3) respectively. The odds ratio (OR) of women to men in the prevalence of hematuria in the general population 1.74, 95% CI: 1.20-2.52, P=0.003, patients with beta-thalassemia major 2.02, 95% CI: 1.11-3.65, P=0.020, children 2.61, 95% CI: 1.19-5.71, P=0.016, the elderly 1.50, 95% CI: 1.15-1.94, P=0.002, and taxi drivers 3.73, 95% CI: 2.58-5.38, P<0.001 was obtained. Conclusion: The prevalence of hematuria in the general population is relatively high. Hematuria is a good predictor for detecting of bladder cancer and Idiopathic hypercalciuria and the physician should attention to microscopic hematuria.

Survival Rate of Liver Transplantation in Asia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Liver transplantation is one of the most effective treatments for acute liver failure, chronic liver cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. This study was implemented to evaluate the survival rate of liver transplant in Asia. Methods: Studies that investigated the survival rate of liver transplant were selected using a systematic search strategy in the following databases: Medline, Embase, Scopus, ProQuest, ISI Web of Science, and Cochrane to Nov 30th, 2020. Pooled survival rate and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Der-Simonian and Laird method. Stata 16.0 (Stata Corp, College Station, TX, USA) was used for analysis. Results: One, 2, 3, 5, and 10-year survival rates of liver transplant were estimated to be 85%, 80%, 75%, 73%, and 71%, respectively. The results of the univariate meta-regression for defining the sources of heterogeneity for one-Year survival rate (SR) showed significant effects of bias (β high risk/ moderate risk =0.059, 95% CI: 0.002, 0.115, P-Value=0.04) and follow up time (β=-0.0002, 95% CI: -0.0003, -0.00, P-Value=0.02) on heterogeneity. Conclusion: The survival rate of liver transplant in Asia is comparable with the corresponding rate reported in the United States and Europe. This study provides a better view of the efficiency of medical cares, regarding liver transplantation. Medical care be enhanced to increase the survival of liver transplant patients.

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-18: a geospatial modelling study

BACKGROUND

More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.

METHODS

We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution.

FINDINGS

Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000-257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution.

INTERPRETATION

Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence of job burnout in Iranian nurses: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Nurses experience many job tensions, which lead to job burnout. The consequences of nurses’ job burnout include absenteeism, reduced quality of patient care, interpersonal conflicts with colleagues, physical and mental problems, reluctance to provide care with patients, and quitting the job. OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to investigate the prevalence of job burnout among nurses in Iran using a meta-analysis method. METHOD: The study was conducted through a meta-analysis method based on the PRISMA checklist. An unlimited search was conducted until 2020 to access the Persian and English papers in national databases, including Medlib, SID, Iranmedex, and Magiran, and databases including Cochrane, Science-Direct, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. The keywords were “job burnout, nurse, and Iran.” The data were searched and extracted by two researchers independently. All analyses were performed using version 2.0 of the Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) software. RESULTS: The prevalence of job burnout was investigated in 14 papers with a sample size of 2271 individuals with an average age of 31.44 years old, and a confidence interval of 55% (44–66%). Fars province, with 89.2%, had the highest, and Zanjan province, with 25.9%, experienced the lowest prevalence of job burnout. The overall prevalence of job burnout was 44% in male and 66% in female so that the highest prevalence was in women. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of job burnout in nurses was high in some areas of Iran. A special attention by managers is needed in this field because of the several roles played by the nurses in the healthcare system and the improvement of public health. Implementation of plans to reduce the job burnout and to improve the mental health of nurses by reducing work hours, giving more opportunities to them to express their opinion(s) in amount of salary and benefits, and creating better working conditions are recommended.

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades.

METHODS

Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer.

FINDINGS

Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00-2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02-1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3-23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6-28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5-14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6-14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7-320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2-313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9-80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5-73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8-71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0-37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6-34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6-34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets.

Methods

The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B.

Findings

In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000.

Interpretation

The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effect of the level of manual performance disability caused by exposure to vibration among sailors working on sailing speed vessels

BACKGROUND

hand-arm vibration is one of the typical annoying physical factors. Hand-arm vibration syndrome (HAVS) is a disorder caused by vibrating working tools which vibrate hands beyond the threshold. Long-term HAVS may result in damage to blood vessels, chronic numbness in the fingers, bone injury, and muscular weakness. People are exposed to high-rate noise vibration in a variety of situations, including vessel employment and operating in tiny boats. Moreover, the extant study was conducted to examine manual function disability levels caused by Sailing Speed Vessels (SSV) vibration.

METHODS

The extant study was quasi-experimental research in which, 52 male sailors in SSVs were chosen as the experimental group, and 27 office personnel were selected as the control group. The demographic factors questionnaire, DASH questionnaire, grip and pinch strength tests, the neurosensory exam, and the skill-dexterity test were all employed in this study. SPSS23 software was used to analyze the data.

RESULTS

The findings suggested that the experimental group experienced greater vibration disorder symptoms than the control group. Because the experimental group had a higher score, the individuals experienced poorer circumstances in terms of arm, shoulder, and hand impairment as compared to the control group. The mean grip strength of hands and fingers in two hands of the experimental group was lower than the control group (P < 0.05). There was a statistically significant relationship among grip strengths of both experimental and control groups (P < 0.05). There was a reduction in skill and dexterity of both dominant and non-dominant hands of members in the experimental group. According to the statistical tests, there was no significant association between dominant (P = 0.001) skills and non-dominant (P = 0.010) hands in experimental and control groups. There was not also any significant relationship between skill and dexterity of both hands (P = 0.001) and the dominant hand tweezer test (P = 0.001) in two experimental and control groups. There was a statistically significant association between experimental and control groups in terms of assembly skill and dexterity (P = 0.482).

CONCLUSION

Individuals who are at risk of vibration experience less physical and sensory function. DASH score, grip strength, skill, and dexterity could predict the reduction in physical function disability.

The global incidence and associated factors of surgical gloves perforation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Surgeon's hands are exposed to a range of chemical and physical stressors that influence the integrity of gloves. Thus, glove perforation facilitates pathogen transmission through the holes. Numerous studies have shown that glove perforation is of great importance, but there is still no complete consensus.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the safety conditions of surgical gloves based on the incidence of glove perforation among surgical teams.

METHODS

A literature review was conducted by searching PubMed, Embase, Scopus, ISI, and ProQuest databases. The incidence of glove perforation was reviewed in eight categories. A total of 580 articles were found in the initial search.

RESULTS

109 articles containing 130 datasets were analyzed. The overall incidence of glove perforation was 14.44 %. Surgeons had the highest incidence of glove perforation (23.09 %). An increase in the duration of surgery increased the odds of perforation. It was found that 68.58% of the glove perforations were not identified by practitioners.

CONCLUSION

Despite major advances in the design of surgical gloves, the issue of safety and integrity of gloves has not improved. Due to the high incidence of surgical glove perforations, most of which had not been identified, it is imperative to consider strategies to minimize the incidence of perforation. The results of the present study can be used to integrate information related to the rate of perforation of surgical gloves in different surgeries.

The seroprevalence of celiac disease in patients with symptoms of irritable bowel syndrome: A cross-sectional study in north of Iran

BACKGROUND

Celiac disease (CD) is a common cause of malabsorption that is definitively diagnosed by abnormal bowel biopsy, symptoms and histologic changes to gluten free diet. The symptoms of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) are common in our community as the majority of people in Guilan, north of Iran, consume rice daily. Also, a number of celiac patients are unknown, and IBS are mistakenly diagnosed.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of CD among IBS patients.

METHODS

A total of 475 consecutive patients with IBS, confirmed by Rome IV, underwent celiac serological tests antitissue transglutaminase antibodies (IgA-tTG, IgG-tTG) after obtaining a written consent form. In case of positive serological tests, biopsy was performed from small intestine after endoscopyRESULTS: Thirty-one (6.53%, 95% CI: 4.55-9.22) patients were positive for celiac serology. Based on Marsh-Oberhuber criteria, out of 9 patients with positive pathology 77.78% (95% CI: 40.19-96.05) had marsh IIIc. In IBS patients cramp (0.009) and stomach fullness (0.021) were two statistically significant IBS symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest physicians to consider celiac examinations for all patients with IBS symptoms, even for patients with no obvious celiac symptoms.

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IMPORTANCE

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

Determinants of mammography screening in Iranian women: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Mammography is the most effective method for early detection of breast cancer (BC), however, it has performed in low-level. The aim of this study was to investigate the determinants of mammography in Iran.

METHODS

This study was a systematic review which was performed based on articles published in both Persian and English languages among Iranian patients in the period of 2000 to 2020 by using keywords of "Iran and mammography". Papers were selected from national databases including (SID, Magiran) and international database including (Scopus, PubMed and web of science), finally related articles to mammography were reviewed.

RESULTS

Findings indicated that 35-50% of breast cancer can be detected in the early stages by mammography, however, it is in low rate of performance among Iranian women. Age, age of menarche, occupation, family history, marital status, family support, number of pregnancies, physician recommendations, perceived sensibility and severity, self-efficacy and perceived benefits are the most important predictors of performing mammography in Iran.

CONCLUSION

Due to the growing trend of breast cancer cases in the country and low mammography rates in Iranian population, high risk groups such as women with BC family history, low income level, low education level, older age and people with history of breast complications were more emphasized for performing mammography through health centers. Therefore, appropriate planning to reduce the barriers of mammography could be helpful.

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults.

FINDINGS

There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally.

INTERPRETATION

Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.

The effect of information technology intervention on using appropriate VTE prophylaxis in non-surgical patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) play an important role in summarizing the best clinical practices, thereby promoting high standards of care in specific medical fields. These systems can serve as tools for gaining knowledge and mediating between clinical guidelines and physicians thereby providing the right information to the right person at the right time.

Objective

This review aims to evaluate the effect of CDSSs on adherence to guidelines for venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis and VTE events compared to routine care without CDSSs in non-surgical patients.

Methods

In order to conduct a systematic literature review, the published studies were identified through screening EMBASE, the international clinical trials registry, OVID, Cochrane database, PubMed, ISI Web of Science, and Scopus databases, from 1982 to March 2021. The included studies were reviewed by two independent reviewers; the proportion of patients that correctly received VTE prophylaxis has been next extracted for further analysis. Additionally, patients were divided into two groups: CDSS-recommended VTE prophylaxis and routine care without using a CDSS.

Results

Twelve articles (three randomized controlled trials, seven prospective cohort trials, and two retrospective cohort trials) were in fine analyzed. The use of CDSSs is found to be associated with a significant increase in the rate of using the appropriate prophylaxis for VTE ( p < 0.05) and a significant decrease in the incidence of VTE ( p < 0.05).

Conclusion

Implementation of CDSSs can help improving the appropriate use of VTE prophylaxis in non-surgical patients. Further, evidence-based and interventional studies on the development of CDSSs can provide more in-depth knowledge on both this tool design and efficiency.

Internet Addiction Effect on Quality of Life: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PURPOSE

Due to the use of different methodologies, tools, and measurements, the positive or negative impact of Internet use on human life quality is accompanied by a series of ambiguities and uncertainties. Therefore, in this study, a systematic review and meta-analysis are conducted regarding the effect of Internet addiction on the quality of life.

METHODS

A systematic search of resources was conducted to investigate the effect of Internet addiction on the quality of life. The databases of PubMed, Cochrane Library, Scopus, Web of Science, Embase, and Science Direct were searched from January 1980 to July 2020. The articles were screened by two researchers in multiple levels in terms of the title, abstract, and full-text; then, final studies that met the inclusion criteria were retrieved and included in the study.

RESULTS

After searching the previously mentioned international databases, 3863 papers were found, 18 of which we included in the final analysis. Surveys indicated that people who had a high Internet addiction received lower scores of quality of life than those who were normal Internet users (OR = 2.45, 95% CI; 2.31-2.61, p < 0.001; I 2 = 85.23%, p < 0.001). Furthermore, There was a negative significant relationship between Internet addiction and quality of life in the psychological (OR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.32-0.99, p=0.04, I 2 = 97.47%, p < 0.001), physical (OR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.39-0.86, p=0.007, I 2 = 95.29%, p=0.001), and overall quality of life score (OR = 0.39, 95% CI: 0.27-0.55, p < 0.001, I 2 = 0.0%, p=0.746).

CONCLUSION

These findings illustrate that Internet addiction should be regarded as a major health concern and incorporated into health education and intervention initiatives.

Meta-analysis: COVID-19 diagnosis in chest CT—master key for radiologists

Background

COVID-19 was discovered in February in China. Due to the high prevalence of the disease, early detection and rapid isolation of patients are the vital points for controlling the outbreak. The purpose of this study was to determine the correct location of chest CT scan in the diagnosis of COVID-19.

Main text

The current study is a systematic review and meta-analysis. 2959 papers were found in all national and international databases. The study has been reported based on the PRISMA checklist. All analyses were done by CMA Ver. 2 software. The statistical analysis results show that the GGO observation level in the available shape was 46% in CT scan results, and the consolidation observation level in the general form was 33% in CT scan results. Pleural effusion was 7%, and linear opacity observation level was 24% in CT scan results in the general form. The CT scan test sensitivity level was gained 94.7%, and PCR test sensitivity level was achieved as 94.8%. This level was 89% in the early stage.

Conclusion

The chest CT has about 24% higher diagnostic sensitivity than the PCR test, in the early stage. GGO revealed a declining process and also indicates that GGO is an early symptom of the disease in CT scan. Linear opacity is the reason behind the initial dyspnea in coronavirus suffering patients referring to the medical centers. The extra-pulmonary lesions increase in the last stage of the disease that makes the patient’s worse.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s43055-021-00457-6.

Association between Blastocystis sp. infection and immunocompromised patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The significance of opportunistic infections in immunocompromised patients and the enigmatic pathogenicity of Blastocystis directed us to conduct the first global systematic review and meta-analysis on Blastocystis prevalence, odds ratios (ORs), and subtypes distribution in various immunocompromised patients (HIV/AIDS, cancer and hemodialysis patients, as well as transplant recipients). The systematic searching procedure was done in Web of Science, PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar databases for relevant published literature until November 11, 2020. Random-effects model was utilized to calculate the weighted estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). The computed pooled prevalence of Blastocystis inferred from 118 papers (128 datasets) on immunocompromised patients was 10.3% (95% CI: 8.7-12.2%), with 16.1% (95% CI: 11.3-22.2%), 12.5% (95% CI: 8.5-18%), 8.4% (95 % CI: 6.6-10.6%), and 6% (95% CI: 2.6-13.3%) for hemodialysis patients, cancer patients, HIV/AIDS patients, and transplant recipients, respectively. Based on 50 case-control studies (54 datasets), the highest ORs were associated with cancer [2.81 (95% CI: 1.24-6.38, P = 0.013)] and hemodialysis patients [2.78 (95% CI: 1.19-6.48, P = 0.018)]. The most frequent subtype being found in immunocompromised patients was ST3 [41.7% (95% CI: 31.4-52.7%)], followed by ST1 [31.7% (95% CI: 23.2-41.8%)] and ST2 [23.1% (95% CI: 14.8-34.1%)]. Also, the weighted frequency of Blastocystis in various subgroups (publication year, WHO regions, geographical distribution, continents, and country income) was analyzed separately. In total, the results of the present meta-analysis highlighted that one's immunodeficiency status is probably associated with an increased Blastocystis infection, underpinning strict preventive measures to be taken.

Investigating the effects of occupational and environmental noise on cardiovascular diseases: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The present study aimed to use a meta-analysis to investigate the relationship between occupational and non-occupational noise exposure expressed in various studies with cardiovascular disease. This is a systematic review and meta-analysis study based on PRISMA checklist. In this study, the researchers searched five international databases of Medline/PubMed, Embase, Scopus, ISI/web of knowledge, and Google Scholar. Search keywords included two categories noise and noise pollution, cardiovascular disease, and hypertension. The Joanna Briggs Institute checklist was used to review and control the quality of the articles. After all screening stage 139 articles entered the final analysis. The results show that except for East African environmental studies and workplace studies in East Asia, Western Asia, and Northern Europe, there was a significant association between noise exposure and cardiovascular disease. Also, there was a significant difference between the intensity of sound and blood pressure in workers (OR = 1.28, CI 95%: 1.15-1.42, P < 0.001). Based on the results of environmental noise, there was a significant difference between ambient noise intensity and blood pressure (OR = 1.55, CI 95%: 1.53-1.57, P < 0.001). It can be concluded that it is very important to study and identify jobs or living environments with less than the recommended noise level and in addition to hearing aids that occur in over-standard exposures, such as cardiovascular disease.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.