COVID-19 induced shocks and its implications for human capital development

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has delivered an enormous shock to the global economy, triggering the deepest recession in eight decades, almost three times as deep as the 2009 global recession. Of all the nations in Africa, Nigeria remains one of the nations with a huge and significant impact on the human capital.

METHODS

Hence, here we employed the recent nationally representative data from Nigeria - the COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey 2020-World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study Integrated Agriculture Survey (LSMS-ISA), a harmonized dataset to explore how the COVID-19 induced shocks affected households' human capital development (using health and education outcomes).

RESULTS

The results indicate that the COVID-19 induced shocks impact on both health and education in Nigeria. Interestingly, access to social safety nets had a positive association with the health and education outcomes. The study concludes that households' access to social safety nets, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic aids in the development of the nation's human capital. Therefore, effectively enhancing household's resilience and strengthening human capital development require positive and considerable innovation, maybe over a period of years. Hence, just an access to the national social safety nets programs or social programs may not be as effective as expected. Therefore, it may not be as successful as intended to just have access to national social safety net programs or social programs that contribute or transfer negligible amounts to the vulnerable recipients over short time frames.

Biden's approval, record inflation, economic recovery, COVID-19 mortality, and vaccination rate among Americans-A longitudinal study of state-level data from April 2021 to January 2022

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought an unprecedented impact on Americans for over three years. One effective strategy to mitigate the pandemic's damage lies in the vaccine. This study aims to investigate the effects of state-level predictors that vary month-by-month on changes in vaccination rates. Panel data of state-level indicators are built for all 50 states from April 2021 to January 2022. The dependent variable is the monthly increase in vaccination rate, and the independent variables include measures of Biden's approval, inflation, economic recovery, and COVID-19 mortality for each month of this study period. Fixed-effects regression is adopted for longitudinal statistical estimation. Findings show that over time Biden's approval and COVID-19 death are positively associated with the growth in the vaccination rate, while inflation and economic recovery are negatively associated with the vaccination rate. Significant interactions are identified among these predictors. The findings from analyzing panel indicators at the state level complement the current literature dominated by examining cross-sectional data and provide public health officials with fresh insights to promote the vaccine rollout.

Green economic revival acquisition: evaluating impact of digital finance and natural resource development

Digital financing is an emerging source after COVID-19 to address novel problems of economies and different industries. With the growing concern about the sustainability of the global environment, developing countries are now moving toward unprecedented economic development. This research analyzes the impact of digital finance and economic growth on environmental sustainability in China from 1995 to 2020, focusing on natural resource management. To include asymmetric patterns and handle socioeconomic shocks during the last three decades, the research uses the cutting-edge ordinary least square (O.L.S.) methodology. The O.L.S. helps the research findings and illustrated patterns of ecological sustainability dependency across various data distributions. According to the empirical results, N.R., F.D.P., and G.D.P. all benefited from carbon emissions at higher and lower emissions quantiles. Green technology innovation, on the other hand, considerably reduces emissions across all quantiles. Notably, the effect of each repressor significantly changed for lower, medium, and higher emissions quantiles, showing a thorough understanding of China's resource scarcity and sustainable growth.

Forecasting recovery from COVID-19 using financial data: An application to Vietnam

We develop a new methodology to nowcast the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on GDP and forecast its evolution in small, export-oriented countries. To this aim, we exploit variation in financial indexes at the industry level in the early stages of the crisis and relate them to the expected duration of the crisis for each industry, under the assumption that the main shocks to financial prices in 2020 came from COVID-19. Starting from the latest official information available at different stages of the crisis on industry-level trend deviations of GDP, often a few months old, we predict the ensuing recovery trajectories using the most recent financial data available at the time of the prediction. The financial data reflect, among other things, how subsequent waves of infections and information about new vaccines have impacted expectations about the future. We apply our method to Vietnam, one of the most open economies in the world, and obtain predictions that are more optimistic than projections by the International Monetary Fund and other international forecasters, and closer to the realised figures. Our claim is that this better-than-expected performance was visible in stock market data early on but was largely missed by conventional forecasting methods.

Impact of policy response on health protection and economic recovery in OECD and BRIICS countries during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVES

During the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, the full reopening of the economy typically accelerated viral transmission. This study aims to determine whether policy response could contribute to the dual objective of both reducing the spread of the epidemic and revitalising economic activities.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a longitudinal study of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, and South Africa (BRIICS) from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the same period of 2021.

METHODS

From a health-economic perspective, this study established a framework to illustrate the following outcomes: suppression-prosperity, outbreak-stagnancy, outbreak-prosperity and suppression-stagnancy scenarios. Multinomial logistic models were used to analyse the associations between policy response with both the pandemic and the economy. The study further examined two subtypes of policy response, stringency/health measures and economic support measures, separately. The probabilities of the different scenarios were estimated.

RESULTS

Economic prosperity and epidemic suppression were significantly associated with policy response. The effects of policy response on health-economic scenarios took the form of inverse U-shapes with the increase in intensity. 'Leptokurtic', 'bimodal' and 'long-tailed' curves demonstrated the estimated possibilities of suppression-prosperity, outbreak-prosperity and suppression-stagnancy scenarios, respectively. In addition, stringency/health policies followed the inverted U-shaped pattern, whereas economic support policies showed a linear pattern.

CONCLUSIONS

It was possible to achieve the dual objective of economic growth and epidemic control simultaneously, and the effects of policy response were shaped like an inverse U. These findings provide a new perspective for balancing the economy with public health during the early stages of the pandemic.

Natural resource volatility and financial development during Covid-19: Implications for economic recovery

Demand for natural resources is constant, while the prices of natural resources increase day-by-day, which has a significant impact on financial development and economic activity. Thus, the study intends to test the association of natural resource volatility and financial development, in order to recommend policies for economic recovery. The study acquires and analyses data for the N11 economies. The findings reveal that natural resource volatility is linked to global economic growth and governmental governance in pre-pandemic era as well as during pandemic. Results exposed that natural resource volatility has a large detrimental impact on global economic growth and plays a prominent part in economic recovery. The findings are robust and reveal that natural gas, oil, and the quality of public administration all contribute to N11 financial development. The study suggests that policymakers address the challenges raised through the solutions discussed.

Role of fiscal and monetary policies for economic recovery in China

After the pandemic, China's fiscal and monetary authorities implemented macroeconomic restructuring measures to combat the pandemic. Using a difference-in-difference model based on data collected during the COVID-19 phase, this study attempted to determine the economic recovery in China using the pandemic means for economic growth and energy consumption in other economies. A 0.21 percent increase in the western region's economic growth is comparable to a 0.15 percent increase in the growth of the southern central and northern regions during the pandemic period. Accordingly, we found evidence of actual provincial spillover effects in the clustering of high- and poor-performing regions. The impact of China's economic resurgence beyond the pandemic phase plays an important role in expanding power consumption in different regions. Since headwinds hamper economic development to aggregate output, fiscal policy is the sole option for maintaining pollution levels while simultaneously improving household well-being in terms of demand and employment.

The interplay among COVID-19 economic recovery, behavioural changes, and the European Green Deal: An energy-economic modelling perspective

In the EU, COVID-19 and associated policy responses led to economy-wide disruptions and shifts in services demand, with considerable energy-system implications. The European Commission's response paved the way towards enhancing climate ambition through the European Green Deal. Understanding the interactions among environmental, social, and economic dimensions in climate action post-COVID thus emerged as a key challenge. This study disaggregates the implications of climate ambition, speed of economic recovery from COVID-19, and behavioural changes due to pandemic-related measures and/or environmental concerns for EU transition dynamics, over the next decade. It soft-links two large-scale energy-economy models, EU-TIMES and NEMESIS, to shed light on opportunities and challenges related to delivering on the EU's 2030 climate targets. Results indicate that half the effort required to reach the updated 55% emissions reduction target should come from electricity decarbonisation, followed by transport. Alongside a post-COVID return to normal, the European Green Deal may lead to increased carbon prices and fossil-fuel rebounds, but these risks may be mitigated by certain behavioural changes, gains from which in transport energy use would outweigh associated consumption increases in the residential sector. Finally, the EU recovery mechanism could deliver about half the required investments needed to deliver on the 2030 ambition.

The role of foreign trade and technology innovation on economic recovery in China: The mediating role of natural resources development

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused the most recent global economic collapse, which severely impacted worldwide economic operations. Natural resource volatility significantly affects global economic recovery. Therefore, the study aims to determine the significance of natural resource volatility, foreign trade, technological innovation, urbanisation, and investment in energy resources on the economic recovery of Chinese provinces. A total of 30 provinces in China were examined between 1995 and 2020. The generalised method of movement (GMM) technique was used to demonstrate that investments in energy sector resources, international commerce, and technological innovation are inconsistent than gross domestic product (GDP) and natural resources. The results demonstrated how trade blocs limit the effect of natural resources on regional economic development in the central provinces. Specifically, 33.4% of energy was saved while 35.2% of emissions were reduced. Although abundant natural resources significantly influence economic growth, studies discovered a negative impact on urbanisation. Nonetheless, the positive effects of trade openness outweighed those of economic recovery. The study proposed stabilising the fluctuating costs of natural resources, encouraging green financing, and increasing investment in energy resources. The findings also provided a novel strategy for achieving high economic growth and recovery.

Testing oil price volatility during Covid-19: Global economic impact

This paper is occasioned by the current events in the crude oil markets throughout the Covid pandemic time. The study analyzes the evolving nature of crude oil cost unpredictability caused by the variations that influence the crude sector throughout the current contagion. Every day's dataset is within the first month of 2020 and December 30, 2021 were measured by applying VAR and GARCH models. The results corroborate that the current contagion has adverse effects on the crude sector, primarily in two ways. It resulted in the headwinds for demand and cut international demand for crude oil, increasing uncertainty for major advanced and developing nations. Next, it resulted in output headwinds as the pandemic caused hydrocarbons conflicts among the leading crude supplying countries. The two headwinds seem to have caused the more than necessary crude unpredictability. Moreover, it was found that the United States output, total requirements, and crude-leaning demand shocks adversely affect the supply unpredictability of the United States and the extractive sectors. The findings depict that crude price instability responded significantly to the contagion caused by crude headwinds. Specifically, the study recorded the effect of uncertainty because of these headwinds beyond financiers' concerns about crude price instability. This study indicates that spillovers do not have meaningful forecast data, igniting critical debates concerning the relevance of the spillover indicator for predicting at minimal sampling occurrence.

COVID-19 vaccine-induced recovery and the implications of vaccine apartheid on the global tourism industry

According to United Nations, World Tourism Organization COVID-19 has had the most devastating impact on the entire global tourism value chain, which resulted in a 74% decline in international passenger arrival, a US$1.3 trillion loss in international tourism receipts, over the US $ 2trillion loss of global domestic product and placing between 100 and 120 million jobs at risk globally. While the initial impact of the pandemic was uniform across the world, the recovery was expected to be varied across the region due to inequitable access to the COVID-19 vaccine. This study seeks to examine the implications of vaccination inequity on tourism recovery in the global tourism market. The study uses secondary, archival data and harnesses the advantages of big data generated from online activities from tourists and tourism companies obtained from authoritative sources. The study found that inequitable access to vaccinations produced a skewed recovery favouring vaccinated regions concentrated in the developed world, leaving poor regions such as Africa behind. The robot system characterising the vaccine-induced recovery had also created a vaccine diplomatic nightmare that scuttled global tourism recovery efforts. To ensure sustainable recovery, there is a need to ensure global vaccination access by rechannelling some of the excess vaccines in developed countries to countries that needs them to ensure the opening up of the entire tourism global market and reduce vulnerabilities that are coming from COVID-19 variants, which poses a threat to the gains made from the current vaccination program. The study concludes that there will not be any meaningful economic recovery without a wholesale approach covering the entire global population.

Economic recovery forecasts under impacts of COVID-19

This paper proposes a joint model by combining the time-varying coefficient susceptible-infected-removal model with the hierarchical Bayesian vector autoregression model. This model establishes the relationship between several critical macroeconomic variables and pandemic transmission states and performs economic predictions under two predefined pandemic scenarios. The empirical part of the model predicts the economic recovery of several countries severely affected by COVID-19 (e.g., the United States and India, among others). Under the proposed pandemic scenarios, economies tend to recover rather than fall into prolonged recessions. The economy recovers faster in the scenario where the COVID-19 pandemic is controlled.

Fishing during the "new normality": social and economic changes in Galapagos small-scale fisheries due to the COVID-19 pandemic

The crisis caused by COVID-19 has profoundly affected human activities around the globe, and the Galapagos Islands are no exception. The impacts on this archipelago include the impairment of tourism and the loss of linkages with the Ecuadorian mainland, which has greatly impacted the local economy. The collapse of the local economy jeopardized livelihoods and food security, given that many impacts affected the food supply chain. During the crisis, the artisanal fishers of the Galapagos showed a high capacity to adapt to the diminishing demand for fish caused by the drastic drop in tourism. We observed that fishers developed strategies and initiatives by shifting roles, from being mainly tourism-oriented providers to becoming local-household food suppliers. This new role of fishers has triggered an important shift in the perception of fishers and fisheries in Galapagos by the local community. The community shifted from perceiving fisheries as a sector opposed to conservation and in conflict with the tourism sector to perceiving fisheries as the protagonist sector, which was securing fresh, high-quality protein for the human community. This study explores the socio-economic impacts and adaptations of COVID-19 on Galapagos' artisanal fisheries based on a mixed methods approach, including the analysis of fisheries datasets, interviews, surveys, and participant observation conducted during and after the lockdown. We illustrate the adaptive mechanisms developed by the sector and explore the changes, including societal perceptions regarding small-scale fisheries in the Galapagos. The research proposes strategies to enhance the Galapagos' economic recovery based on behaviors and traits shown by fishers which are considered potential assets to build-up resilience.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40152-022-00268-z.

Financial and educational impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in an academic hospital-based tertiary cytopathology practice

Background

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has led to a dramatic shift in volumes and practice patterns for hospitals around the globe. We analyzed its effect on the cytopathology subspecialty practice and resident education at our institution.

Design

Specimen volumes were analyzed for the cytology practice for 2019 and 2020. Patient registration and elective and scheduled surgery volumes were also included in the analysis for 2020. The impact of innovative concepts, such as virtual teaching, on resident teaching was evaluated using a survey consisting of 5 multiple choice questions with 4 possible responses each.

Results

The total number of specimens decreased by 28% in March 2020 (P < 0.00001), with a continuing decline in April (66% decrease year-over-year, P < 0.00001), followed by recovery in May and return to baseline within June 2020. Specimen volumes continued to show an upward trend thereafter. Improved specimen volumes correlated with patient registration and surgical volumes. The majority of residents considered virtual teaching conferences (75%) and self-study sets (58%) as beneficial and did not view absence of one-on-one microscope learning (58%) as significantly affecting their education.

Conclusion

The recovery curve for our cytopathology service was V-shaped, essentially the most ideal response to an economic downturn. The majority of residents viewed virtual teaching conferences and self-study sets favorably and did not regard absence of one-on-one microscope learning as adversely affecting their education.

Preventing a rebound in carbon intensity post-COVID-19 - lessons learned from the change in carbon intensity before and after the 2008 financial crisis

The carbon emission rebound of the post-2008 financial crisis teaches us a lesson that avoiding a rebound in carbon intensity is key to prevent the carbon emission increase afterward. Although how carbon emission will change the world after the COVID-19 pandemic is unknown, it is urgent to learn from the past and avert or slow down the potential rebound effect. Therefore, this study aims to identify key drivers of carbon intensity changes of 55 sectors, applying the decomposition techniques and the world input-output data. Our results demonstrate that global carbon intensity fluctuates drastically when shocked by the global financial crisis, presenting an inversed-V shape for the period 2008-2011. Industrial carbon emission and gross output vary among different industries, the growth rate of industrial carbon intensity varies from -55.55% to 23.77%. The energy intensity effect and economic structure effect have opposite impacts on carbon intensity decrease, accelerating and hindering the decreasing carbon intensity, respectively. However, the energy mix effect has a minor impact on carbon intensity decrease. The industrial carbon intensity decomposition results show the impact of technological and structural factors are significantly different among industries. Moreover, the impact of energy intensity is slightly stronger than the energy mix. More measures targeting avoiding the rebound in carbon intensity should be developed.

What does the China's economic recovery after COVID-19 pandemic mean for the economic growth and energy consumption of other countries?

China is the first major economy to show a recovery after a slowdown induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. This work aims to explore what the China's economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic means for the economic growth and energy consumption of the other countries using the global VAR quarterly data. In the long term, spillover effects of China's economic growth have the most obvious impact on upper-middle-income countries' economic growth (0.17%), followed by the economic growth of lower-middle-income countries (0.16%) and high-income countries (0.15%). However, the spillover effect of China's economic growth has the most significant impact on energy consumption in high-income countries (0.11%-0.45%), followed by energy consumption in upper-middle-income countries (0.08%-0.33%) and in lower-middle-income countries (-0.02%-0.05%). Our results indicate upper-middle-income countries will benefit the most from China's economic recovery post-COVID-19, followed by lower-middle-income countries and high-income countries. The spillover effect of China's economic recovery post-COVID-19 brings the most obvious impact on the increase in energy consumption in high-income countries, followed by middle-income countries. It also should be noted that the spillover effect of China's economic growth does not necessarily lead to an increase in energy consumption lower-middle-income countries. Generally, the spillover effect of China's economic recovery on other countries' economic growth is much more than other countries' energy consumption.

Population health post-pandemic: critiquing the economic approach to recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed that the economic crisis is inseparable from the health and inequalities crisis. This commentary identifies the key overarching economic decisions that governments will make that are likely have a larger impact on the health of nations than the direct impact of COVID-19 itself. We present these economic decisions to a health audience. The public health profession will need to develop opinions on these key economic decisions if we are to shape the environment that has such a large impact on the work we do.

Economic resiliency and recovery, lessons from the financial crisis for the COVID-19 pandemic: A regional perspective from Central and Eastern Europe

In this paper we examine resiliency, the ability to absorb and recover from economic shocks, in 199 Nuts-3 regions in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) following the 2008 global financial crisis. We find evidence of strong positive regional spillovers, meaning that regions tend to form clusters of high-performing and low-performing areas, a process that exacerbates regional income disparities. Using the experience of the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, we simulate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the ability of these, and, by extension, other upper-middle-income countries to recover from a shock to employment caused by the incidence of COVID-19. Using our recoverability equation estimates, we find that employment in no more than 31 of the 199 regions will have fully recovered in 2 years after the onset of the recovery from the crisis. Policy implications of the findings are discussed.

Measuring measurement - What is metrology and why does it matter?

Metrology remains a uniquely important endeavour. A sign of its success and robustness as an infra-technology is that it usually goes unnoticed. This means that it is in danger of being under-valued and under-appreciated. The sure-footing that metrology provides to the quality infrastructure will be especially important as the world grapples with the aftereffects of the COVID-19 pandemic, rebuilding global economies and also re-focusing on addressing global grand challenges and exploiting emerging technologies. In this context it is important and timely to re-examine the concept of metrology and how it relates to the quality infrastructure that it serves, but differs to measurement in general. The concept of metrology as 'measuring measurement' is proposed, emphasising the characteristic meta-thought associated with the discipline that distinguishes it from routine measurement.

Efforts to mitigate the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: potential entry points for neglected tropical diseases

Background

The damage inflicted by the coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic upon humanity is and will continue to be considerable. Unprecedented progress made in global health over the past 20 years has reverted and economic growth has already evaporated, giving rise to a global recession, the likes of which we may not have experienced since the Second World War. Our aim is to draw the attention of the neglected tropical disease (NTD) community towards some of the major emerging economic opportunities which are quickly appearing on the horizon as a result of COVID-19.

Main text

This scoping review relied on a literature search comprised of a sample of articles, statements, and press releases on initiatives aimed at mitigating the impact of COVID-19, while supporting economic recovery. Of note, the donor scenario and economic development agendas are highly dynamic and expected to change rapidly as the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds, as are donor and lender priorities.

Conclusions

The NTD community, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), will need to work quickly, diligently, and in close collaboration with decision-makers and key stakeholders, across sectors at national and international level to secure its position. Doing so might enhance the odds of grasping potential opportunities to access some of the massive resources that are now available in the form of contributions from corporate foundations, trust funds, loans, debt relieve schemes, and other financial mechanisms, as part of the ongoing and future economic development agendas and public health priorities driven by the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper should serve as a starting point for the NTD community to seek much needed financial support in order to sustain and revitalize control and elimination efforts pertaining to NTDs in LMICs.

Recovering Better from COVID-19 Will Need a Rethink of Multilateralism

The world economy is experiencing a deep recession amid a still unchecked pandemic. But the commitment to recovering better will not materialize if, as happened after the global financial crisis, the advanced economies resort to a policy mix of austerity, liberalization and quantitative easing. Such an approach will only worsen a whole set of pre-existing conditions and in particular, high inequality, excessive debt (both public and private and weak investment—that will lead to a lost decade, particularly for developing countries. What is needed instead is an expansionary plan for global recovery, that can credibly return even the most vulnerable countries to a stronger position than before the crisis. This paper sets out some of the key elements of such a plan and argues that its implementation will require systematic reforms to the multilateral trade and financial system if a more resilient recovery is to turn into a sustainable and inclusive future.

Trends in private maternity care in Ireland's capital during and after the Great Economic Recession 2009-2017

BACKGROUND

Maternity care in hospitals in the Republic of Ireland is funded by a hybrid of public finance and private health insurance.

AIMS

The aim of this longitudinal observational study was to investigate the annual trends in maternity care from 2009 to 2017 during and after the Great Economic Recession.

METHODS

All women who delivered a singleton baby weighing ≥ 500 g during the 9 years (2009-2017) were included. Detailed clinical and sociodemographic details were computerised at the first antenatal visit by a trained midwife. Women who delivered their first baby during the study were analysed longitudinally if they delivered again during the 9 years.

RESULTS

The mean age of the 73,266 women was 31.3 ± 5.6 years, 40.1% were nulliparas, and 70.3% were Irish-born. Overall, 75.2% opted for the public, 10.8% for the semi-private, and 14.0% for the private package of maternity care. Over the 9 years, the number of women choosing private and semi-private care decreased by 21.6% and 35.3%, respectively, whereas the number of women using public care increased by 12.3%. Most women opted for the same package of care in subsequent pregnancies.

CONCLUSIONS

Ireland's recent economic recession was accompanied by an overall decrease in the number of women choosing private maternity care after 2009. Furthermore, economic recovery with increasing female employment after 2012 was not associated with a recovery in demand for private care. These findings have important implications for healthcare policies and for the future organisation and funding of our maternity services.

A New Normal or Business-as-Usual? Lessons for COVID-19 from Financial Crises in East and Southeast Asia

Crises and dislocations home in on social, economic, and political weaknesses that are often sidestepped or pushed to the backburner in the interests of master plans of growth or development. Recovery from crises, then, provides the opportunity to address these underlying issues that preceded and, likely, contributed to the crises or dislocation; meanwhile, a return to the previous normalcy following such crises generally means exacerbation of these weaknesses that erode and threaten to fracture social, economic and political foundations. This paper documents social and economic policies across two financial crises, the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis, for South Korea, the Philippines, and Indonesia, to reveal the problems from growth-centric recovery focus on economic fragilities, social cohesion, and political stability. Further, using evidence from the ground and survey data, we also show how recovery to a new normal with a reprioritization of social policies invigorates the social, political, and economic foundations. We round off the study with an examination of social policy changes under COVID-19 to assess how the efforts track against a recovery to business-as-usual economic normalcy or a new normal that reprioritizes social policies and the economy. The scope of change is high; as we show in the paper, it is also necessary.

Short-windedness Would Weaken Effective Climate Policy

Most states have implemented quite strict measures designed to slow down the spread of the coronavirus among their populations. For most sectors, these measures have resulted in a significant reduction of economic activity, output, and hence also output-related emissions. Commitment to these measures, apparently regardless of the economic costs involved, is considered by some people to be a blueprint for the commitment required to mitigate climate change and to achieve the Paris climate targets. However, when it comes to devising an efficient climate policy, the differences between the two crises-cororonavirus and climate change-need to be taken more seriously than the similarities. Alarming have been the various calls to put a quick end to corona prevention measures and the restrictions they place on public and economic activity, indicative as they are of the priority accorded to high discount rates and the absence of precautionary thinking among policy-makers. Both the differences between the two crises themselves and the similarities in the reluctance to focus on achieving (more) long-term benefits emphasize once again the need for long-term commitment to climate policies in line with agreed targets.

COVID-19 and EU Climate Targets: Can We Now Go Further?

This paper examines the implications of the COVID-19 crisis on the 2030 EU CO₂ emissions target, considering a range of economic growth scenarios. With lower economic activity resulting from the COVID-19 crisis, we find that existing climate policy measures could overshoot the current 40% EU target in 2030. If policymakers consequently relax climate policy measures to maintain the 2030 target, the opportunity will be missed to align EU climate policy with longer-term Paris emissions mitigation goals. Our analysis highlights that although existing climate policy measures will likely reduce emissions more than 40% by 2030 in the wake of the pandemic, they will not be enough to meet the Paris agreement. More stringent measures, such as those proposed under the Green New Deal, will still be needed and may be less costly than previously estimated.

Lifecycle effects of a recession on health behaviors: Boom, bust, and recovery in Iceland

This study uses individual-level longitudinal data from Iceland, a country that experienced a severe economic crisis in 2008 and substantial recovery by 2012, to investigate the extent to which the effects of a recession on health behaviors are lingering or short-lived and to explore trajectories in health behaviors from pre-crisis boom, to crisis, to recovery. Health-compromising behaviors (smoking, heavy drinking, sugared soft drinks, sweets, fast food, and tanning) declined during the crisis, and all but sweets continued to decline during the recovery. Health-promoting behaviors (consumption of fruit, fish oil, and vitamins/minerals and getting recommended sleep) followed more idiosyncratic paths. Overall, most behaviors reverted back to their pre-crisis levels or trends during the recovery, and these short-term deviations in trajectories were probably too short-lived in this recession to have major impacts on health or mortality. A notable exception is for binge drinking, which declined by 10% during the 2 crisis years, continued to fall (at a slower rate of 8%) during the 3 recovery years, and did not revert back to the upward pre-crisis trend during our observation period. These lingering effects, which directionally run counter to the pre-crisis upward trend in consumption and do not reflect price increases during the recovery period, suggest that alcohol is a potential pathway by which recessions improve health and/or reduce mortality.