Development of a regional-based predictive model of incidence of traumatic spinal cord injury using machine learning algorithms

Objective

To develop a predictive model of incidence of traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI).

Methods

The data for training the model included both the incidence data and the covariates. The incidence data were extracted from systematic reviews and the covariates were extracted from data available in the international road federation database. Then the feature processing measures were taken. First we defined a hyper-parameter, missing-value threshold, in order to eliminate features that exceed this threshold. To tackle the problem of overfitting of model we determined the Pearson correlation of features and excluded those with more than 0.7 correlation. After feature selection three different models including simple linear regression, support vector regression, and multi-layer perceptron were examined to fit the purposes of this study. Finally, we evaluated the model based on three standard metrics: Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error, and R2.

Results

Our machine-learning based model could predict the incidence rate of TSCI with the mean absolute error of 4.66. Our model found "Vehicles in use, Total vehicles/Km of roads", "Injury accidents/100 Million Veh-Km", "Vehicles in use, Vans, Pick-ups, Lorries, Road Tractors", "Inland surface Passengers Transport (Mio Passenger-Km), Rail", and "% paved" as top predictors of transport-related TSCI (TRTSCI).

Conclusions

Our model is proved to have a high accuracy to predict the incidence rate of TSCI for countries, especially where the main etiology of TSCI is related to road traffic injuries. Using this model, we can help the policymakers for resource allocation and evaluation of preventive measures.

Dietary protein sources, genetics, and cardiovascular disease incidence

BACKGROUND

To explore the potential correlation between the amount and source of dietary protein and cardiovascular disease (CVD), as well as the potential impact of genetic susceptibility on these connections.

METHODS

We performed a prospective analysis of 98,224 participants from the UK. We measured dietary protein intake using two 24-hour dietary recall interviews. To analyze the data, we used multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models and restricted cubic spline models. Additionally, we calculated weighted genetic risk scores.

RESULTS

A total of 8818 new cases of CVD were documented, which included 4076 cases of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 1126 cases of stroke. The study found a J-shaped association (p nonlinearity = 0.005) between CVD risk and the percentage of energy obtained from consuming plant protein. Higher intake of plant protein and whole protein was associated with a decreased risk of CVD. On the other hand, larger intakes of animal protein was linked to a higher occurrence of CAD. Additionally, increased intake of plant protein was also linked to a lower incidence of stroke. Replacing 5 % of animal protein-based energy intake with plant protein-based energy intake resulted in a 5 % decrease in CVD risk.

LIMITATIONS

There remains an effect of residual confounders.

CONCLUSION

The consumption of larger amounts of plant protein, whole protein, and nut protein was found to be associated with a lower risk of CVD events. Conversely, higher intakes of animal protein was associated with an increased risk of CAD events. Furthermore, replacing 5 % of energy intake from animal protein with energy intake from plant protein was found to reduce the risk of CVD by 5 %.

Rabies incidence and burden in three cities of Cameroon (2004-2013)

Rabies is a fatal disease occurring worldwide and especially in almost all the countries in Asia and Africa including Cameroon. Though animal and human rabies is prevalent in Cameroon, the epidemiology and socio-economic burden of the disease in the country is not known. Therefore, a 10-year (October 2004-April 2013) retrospective study on the incidence of animal and human rabies and its burden in Garoua, Ngaoundéré and Yaoundé in Cameroon was carried out. Records of human cases were extracted from the database of the regional hospitals, and animal cases from the databases of Centre Pasteur and National Veterinary Laboratory. The burden of the disease was assessed through the estimation of costs linked to preventive measures (vaccination), corrective procedures (Post Exposure Treatment), Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) and overall societal cost of the disease. Overall, 56 rabies-suspected human deaths, corresponding to an incidence of 0.02 ± 0.00 ‱ and Animal Rabies Incidence (ARI) of 0.37 ± 0.00 % among 1844 suspected animal cases were recorded. The economic loss due to preventive measures of 326,046 ± 28,130.85 USD, related to corrective procedures of 806,741.25 ± 2,466.08 USD, and DALY of 1690.28 ± 4.76 years were estimated. This is the first study that highlights the enormous socio-economic burden associated with animal and human rabies in endemic parts of Cameroon and emphasizes on enhancing rabies eradication strategy focusing on the One Health approach.

Refugee status and the incidence of affective psychotic disorders and non-psychotic bipolar disorder: A register-based cohort study of 1.3m people in Sweden

BACKGROUND

Refugees are at increased risk of non-affective psychotic disorders, but it is unclear whether this extends to affective psychotic disorders [APD] or non-psychotic bipolar disorder [NPB].

METHODS

We conducted a nationwide cohort study in Sweden of all refugees, non-refugee migrants and the Swedish-born population, born 1 Jan 1984-31 Dec 2016. We followed participants from age 14 years until first ICD-10 diagnosis of APD or NPB. We fitted Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios [HR] and 95 % confidence intervals [95%CI], adjusted for age, sex and family income. Models were additionally stratified by region-of-origin.

RESULTS

We followed 1.3 million people for 15.1 million person-years, including 2428 new APD cases (rate: 16.0 per 100,000 person-years; 95%CI: 15.4-16.7) and 9425 NPB cases (rate: 63.8; 95%CI: 62.6-65.1). Rates of APD were higher in refugee (HRadjusted: 2.07; 95%CI: 1.55-2.78) and non-refugee migrants (HRadjusted: 1.40; 95%CI: 1.16-1.68), but lower for NPBs for refugee (HRadjusted: 0.24; 95%CI: 0.16-0.38) and non-refugee migrants (HRadjusted: 0.34; 95%CI: 0.28-0.41), compared with the Swedish-born. APD rates were elevated for both migrant groups from Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, but not other regions. Migrant groups from all regions-of-origin experienced lower rates of NPB.

LIMITATIONS

Income may have been on the causal pathway making adjustment inappropriate.

CONCLUSIONS

Refugees experience elevated rates of APD compared with Swedish-born and non-refugee migrants, but lower rates of NPB. This specificity of excess risk warrants clinical and public health investment in appropriate psychosis care for these vulnerable populations.

Incidence and characteristics of otitis media with effusion in adults before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the incidence and characteristics of adult otitis media with effusion (OME) before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

A retrospective descriptive study was conducted. The incidence, age, sex, affected ear side, time of OME onset according to COVID-19 and days of improvement after conservative treatment were determined to assess the clinical features of adult OME in different periods of the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESULTS

The incidence of adult OME during these periods was 3.17%, 2.30%, 6.18%, and 3.68%, respectively. Unilateral ear involvement and male sex were more common. The onset of adult OME occurred 7.80 ± 3.97 days after COVID-19 diagnosis, and improvement was observed after 12.24 ± 5.08 days of conservative treatment. Patients in the post-pandemic period were older than those in the non-pandemic period.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of adult OME in China showed a tendency to decrease, recover, and decrease again following the COVID-19 outbreak. Pandemic prevention and control measures have had a certain impact on reducing the incidence, but the elderly are more prone to this disease.

[Epidemiology and diagnostics of mesenteric ischemia]

BACKGROUND

Mesenteric ischemia is a life-threatening condition with a complex etiology and diagnostics.

OBJECTIVE

Etiology, incidence, symptoms, and diagnostics of acute and chronic mesenteric ischemia.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Literature search via PubMed with a focus on studies on the epidemiology and diagnostics of mesenteric ischemia and analysis of existing international guidelines.

RESULTS

The incidence of acute mesenteric ischemia is given as 0.63-12.9 per 100,000 people per year. There are no sufficiently reliable figures for chronic mesenteric ischemia, but an incidence of up to 3 per 100,000 inhabitants per year is generally assumed. The three-phase computed tomography has the highest diagnostic specificity and sensitivity.

CONCLUSION

In the presence of risk factors acute and chronic mesenteric ischemia should be considered as differential diagnoses in the presence of abdominal pain using three-phase computed tomography.

Incidence of Lyme Borreliosis in Germany: A retrospective observational healthcare claims study

Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most common tick-borne disease in Germany. Although the incidence of LB in Germany has been assessed in several studies, those studies either used data from statutory surveillance, which frequently underreport cases, or data from health claims databases, which may overestimate cases due to non-specific LB case definitions. Here, using a more specific case definition, we describe the incidence of medically-attended LB by disease manifestation, age group, and federal state for the period 2015-2019. Both inpatient and outpatient cases were analyzed from a claims database. To be eligible for inclusion, patients were required to have an LB specific ICD-10 GM diagnosis code plus an antibiotic prescription, and for disseminated manifestations, a laboratory test order additionally. LB cases were classified as erythema migrans (EM), or disseminated disease including Lyme arthritis (LA), Lyme neuroborreliosis (LNB), and all other disease manifestations (OTH). Between 2015 and 2019, the incidence of medically-attended LB cases ranged from 195.7/100,000 population per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 191.0 - 200.5) to 254.5/100,000 population per year (95% CI, 249.0 - 260.0) per year. The majority of cases (92.2%) were EM, while 2.8% presented as LA, 3.8% as LNB, and 1.2% as OTH. For both EM and disseminated disease, the incidence peaked in children aged 5-9 years and in older adults. By federal state, the incidence of medically-attended EM ranged from 74.4/100,000 population per year (95% CI, 71.9 - 77.0) per year in Hamburg, to 394.1/100,000 population per year (95% CI, 370.7 - 417.6) per year in Saxony, whereas for medically-attended disseminated disease, the highest incidence was in Thuringia, Saxony, and Bavaria (range: 22.0 [95% CI, 19.9 - 24.0] to 35.7 [95% CI, 34.7 - 36.7] per 100,000 population per year). This study comprehensively estimated the incidence of all manifestations of medically-attended LB and showed a high incidence of LB throughout Germany. Results from the study support performing epidemiological studies in all federal states to measure the burden of LB and to invest in public health interventions for prevention.

Trends in cerebral venous thrombosis before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: Analysis of the National Inpatient Sample

OBJECTIVES

We sought to provide updated incidence and trend data for cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) in the United States from 2016-2020, examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on CVT, and identify predictors of in-hospital mortality.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Validated ICD-10 codes were used to identify discharges with CVT in the National Inpatient Sample (NIS). Sample weights were applied to generate nationally representative estimates, and census data were used to compute incidence rates. The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic was defined as January-May 2020. Trend analysis was completed using Joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

From 2016 to 2020, the incidence of CVT increased from 24.34 per 1,000,000 population per year (MPY) to 33.63 per MPY (Annual Percentage Change (APC) 8.6 %; p < 0.001). All-cause in-hospital mortality was 4.9 % [95 % CI 4.5-5.4]. On multivariable analysis, use of thrombectomy, increased age, atrial fibrillation, stroke diagnosis, infection, presence of prothrombotic hematologic conditions, lowest quartile of income, intracranial hemorrhage, and male sex were associated with in-hospital mortality. CVT incidence was similar comparing the first 5 months of 2020 and 2019 (31.37 vs 32.04; p = 0.322) with no difference in median NIHSS (2 [IQR 1-10] vs. 2 [1-9]; p = 0.959) or mortality (4.2 % vs. 5.6 %; p = 0.176).

CONCLUSIONS

CVT incidence increased in the US from 2016 to 2020 while mortality did not change. Increased age, prothrombotic state, stroke diagnosis, infection, atrial fibrillation, male sex, lowest quartile of income, intracranial hemorrhage, and use of thrombectomy were associated with in-hospital mortality following CVT. During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, CVT volumes and mortality were similar to the prior year.

Global, regional, and national time trends in incidence for tuberculosis, 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) represents a significant global health concern, being the leading cause of mortality from a single infectious agent worldwide. The investigation of TB incidence and epidemiological trends is critical for evaluating the effectiveness of control strategies and identifying ongoing challenges.

OBJECTIVES

This study presents the trend in TB incidence across 204 countries and regions over a 30-year period.

METHODS

The study utilises data sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The age cohort model and gender subgroup analysis were employed to estimate the net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (age annual percentage change), longitudinal age curve (expected age ratio), and cycle and cohort effect (relative risk of cycle and birth cohort) of TB incidence from 1990 to 2019. This approach facilitates the examination and differentiation of age, period, and cohort effects in TB incidence trends, potentially identifying disparities in TB prevention across different countries.

RESULTS

Over the past three decades, a general downward trend in TB incidence has been observed in most countries. However, in 15 of the 204 countries, the overall incidence rate is still on the rise (net drift ≥0.0 %) or stagnant decline (≥-0.5 %). From 1990 to 2019, the net drift of tuberculosis mortality ranged from -2.2 % [95 % confidence interval (CI): -2.33, -2.05] in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries to -1.7 % [95 % CI: -1.81, -1.62] in low SDI countries. In some below-average SDI countries,men in the birth cohort are at a disadvantage and at risk of deterioration, necessitating comprehensive TB prevention and treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

While the global incidence of TB has declined, adverse period and cohort effects have been identified in numerous countries, raising questions about the adequacy of TB healthcare provision across all age groups. Furthermore, this study reveals gender disparities in TB incidence.

Trends in epidemiology, surgical management, and prognosis of infective endocarditis during the XXI century in Spain: A population-based nationwide study

BACKGROUND

Few population-based studies have evaluated the epidemiology of infective endocarditis (IE). Changes in population demographics and guidelines on IE may have affected both the incidence and outcomes of IE. Therefore, the aim of our study is to provide contemporary population-based epidemiological data of IE in Spain.

METHODS

Retrospective nationwide observational study using data from the Spanish National Health System Discharge Database. We included all patients hospitalized with IE from January 2000 to December 2019.

RESULTS

A total of 64,550 IE episodes were included. The incidence of IE rose from 5.25 cases/100,000 person-year in 2000 to 7.21 in 2019, with a 2% annual percentage change (95% CI 1.3-2.6). IE incidence was higher among those aged 85 or older (43.5 cases/100.000 person-years). Trends across the study period varied with sex and age. Patients with IE were progressively older (63.9 years in 2000-2004 to 70.0 in 2015-2019, p < 0.001) and had more frequent comorbidities and predispositions, including, previous valvular prosthesis (12.1% vs 20.9%, p < 0.001). After adjustment, a progressive reduction in mortality was noted including in 2015-2019 compared to 2010-2014 (adjusted odds ratio 0.93, 95% confident interval 0.88-0.99, p = 0.023)., which was associated with more frequent cardiac surgery in recent years (15.1% in 2010-2014 vs 19.9% in 2015-2019).

CONCLUSIONS

In Spain, the incidence of IE has increased during the XXI century, with a more pronounced increase in elderly individuals. Adjusted-mortality decreased over the years, which could be related to a higher percentage of surgery. Our results highlight the changing epidemiology of IE.

Disease burden and projection of total and early-onset colorectal cancer in Gulf cooperation council countries from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) incidence and prevalence trends in the rise in high income countries, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The study aimed to offer an up-to-date assessment of the overall burden of CRC, and EO-CRC in GCC countries and project its incidence and mortality in 2030.

METHOD

The prevalence, incidence, mortality, years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CRC were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. The incidence and mortality of CRC, and EO-CRC up to 2030 were predicted.

RESULTS

All GCC countries showed a higher annual average percentage changes (AAPC) AAPC incidence rate for EO-CRC compared to CRC. In Saudi Arabia the number of CRC cases has increased from 1990 1484.57; (95 % UI 1987.98,1083.86) 11.4-fold-increase to 16991.83; (95 % UI 21754.79,12892.12) in 2019. In 2030, the total incidence cases of CRC for the six Gulf countries are expected to reach 13,339 thousand, primarily driven by Saudi Arabia with 7,910.19 cases. In 2030, the CRC mortality rate is projected to be 7,647 cases, with nearly 57 % of CRC mortality cases anticipated in Saudi Arabia.

CONCLUSION

This study sheds light on the alarming rise in CRC and EO-CRC across Gulf countries from 1990 to 2019, emphasizing Saudi Arabia's significant burden. It projects a concerning increase in CRC incidence and mortality by 2030, primarily in Saudi Arabia, and highlights the need for immediate public health interventions.

Epidemiological features and a survival nomogram for primary lymphoma of the male genital tract

Primary lymphoma of the male genital tract (PLMGT) is rare, and data on its epidemiology and prognosis are lacking. Our study aimed to estimate the incidence and develop a predictive nomogram for PLMGT. We pooled the incidence and survival data of PLMGT over the last 20 years from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Incidence rates were calculated by year of diagnosis, age, race, and histology. Independent prognostic factors selected by Cox regression analysis were used to develop a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS). Our study enrolled 1312 patients with PLMGT. The overall incidence rate of PLMGT was 0.437/1,000,000 during 2000-2019. OS was associated with age, marital status, histological subtype, Ann Arbor stage, and therapeutic strategy, which were used to construct nomograms to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates. Receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis showed good performance of the nomogram. Based on the total score of each patient from the nomogram, the patients were clustered into three risk groups, and the risk stratification model was more successful in predicting clinical outcomes than the traditional Ann Arbor staging system. The incidence rate of PLMGT has remained relatively stable over the past two decades. For the OS of patients with PLMGT, we established a novel predictive nomogram involving all independent risk factors obtained from the SEER database and developed a corresponding risk classification system that showed better predictive performance than the Ann Arbor staging system.

Incidence of pneumococcal disease in children ≤48 months old in the United States: 1998-2019

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal disease (PD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among children, particularly in the youngest age groups. This study aimed to assess the incidence of PD over time by age group in young children with commercial or Medicaid coverage in the US.

METHODS

Episodes of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), all-cause pneumonia (ACP), and acute otitis media (AOM) were identified in the MarketScan® Commercial and Medicaid claims databases using diagnosis codes among children aged ≤ 48 months with confirmed date of birth (DoB), at any time during the study period (1998-2019). DoB was assigned using diagnosis codes for birth or delivery using the child's or mother's medical claims to ensure accurate age determination. Annual incidence rates (IRs) were calculated as number of disease episodes/100,000 person-years (PY) for IPD and ACP and episodes/1,000 PY for AOM, for children aged 0-6, 7-12, 12-24, and 25-48 months.

RESULTS

Annual IPD IRs declined from 53 to 7 episodes/100,000 PY between 1998 and 2019 in commercially-insured and 58 to 9 episodes/100,000 PY between 2001 and 2019 in Medicaid-insured children. Annual ACP IRs declined from 5,600 to 3,952 episodes/100,000 PY, and from 6,706 to 4,521 episodes/100,000 PY, respectively, over these periods. In both populations, children aged 0-6 months had the highest incidence of IPD and inpatient ACP. Annual AOM IRs declined from 1,177 to 738 episodes/1,000 PY (commercially-insured) and 633 to 624 episodes/1,000 PY (Medicaid-insured), over these periods. IRs were higher in rural vs. urban areas for all disease manifestations.

CONCLUSIONS

Incidence rates of IPD, ACP, and AOM decreased in children with commercial insurance and Medicaid coverage from 1998 to 2019. However, burden of disease remained substantial, with higher annual IRs for IPD and ACP for Medicaid-insured vs. commercially-insured children. IPD and inpatient ACP were most common in the youngest children 0-6 months old, followed by the 7-12-month age group.

Impact of ambient air pollution on colorectal cancer risk and survival: insights from a prospective cohort and epigenetic Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

This study investigates the associations between air pollution and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk and survival from an epigenomic perspective.

METHODS

Using a newly developed Air Pollutants Exposure Score (APES), we utilized a prospective cohort study (UK Biobank) to investigate the associations of individual and combined air pollution exposures with CRC incidence and survival, followed by an up-to-date systematic review with meta-analysis to verify the associations. In epigenetic two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses, we examine the associations between genetically predicted DNA methylation related to air pollution and CRC risk. Further genetic colocalization and gene-environment interaction analyses provided different insights to disentangle pathogenic effects of air pollution via epigenetic modification.

FINDINGS

During a median 12.97-year follow-up, 5767 incident CRC cases among 428,632 participants free of baseline CRC and 533 deaths in 2401 patients with CRC were documented in the UK Biobank. A higher APES score was associated with an increased CRC risk (HR, 1.03, 95% CI = 1.01-1.06; P = 0.016) and poorer survival (HR, 1.13, 95% CI = 1.03-1.23; P = 0.010), particularly among participants with insufficient physical activity and ever smokers (Pinteraction > 0.05). A subsequent meta-analysis of seven observational studies, including UK Biobank data, corroborated the association between PM2.5 exposure (per 10 μg/m3 increment) and elevated CRC risk (RR,1.42, 95% CI = 1.12-1.79; P = 0.004; I2 = 90.8%). Genetically predicted methylation at PM2.5-related CpG site cg13835894 near TMBIM1/PNKD and cg16235962 near CXCR5, and NO2-related cg16947394 near TMEM110 were associated with an increased CRC risk. Gene-environment interaction analysis confirmed the epigenetic modification of aforementioned CpG sites with CRC risk and survival.

INTERPRETATION

Our study suggests the association between air pollution and CRC incidence and survival, underscoring the possible modifying roles of epigenomic factors. Methylation may partly mediate pathogenic effects of air pollution on CRC, with annotation to epigenetic alterations in protein-coding genes TMBIM1/PNKD, CXCR5 and TMEM110.

FUNDING

Xue Li is supported by the Natural Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of Zhejiang Province (LR22H260001), the National Nature Science Foundation of China (No. 82204019) and Healthy Zhejiang One Million People Cohort (K-20230085). ET is supported by a Cancer Research UK Career Development Fellowship (C31250/A22804). MGD is supported by the MRC Human Genetics Unit Centre Grant (U127527198).

Coexisting atrial fibrillation and cancer: time trends and associations with mortality in a nationwide Dutch study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Coexisting atrial fibrillation (AF) and cancer challenge the management of both. The aim of the study is to comprehensively provide the epidemiology of coexisting AF and cancer.

METHODS

Using Dutch nationwide statistics, individuals with incident AF (n = 320 139) or cancer (n = 472 745) were identified during the period 2015-19. Dutch inhabitants without a history of AF (n = 320 135) or cancer (n = 472 741) were matched as control cohorts by demographic characteristics. Prevalence of cancer/AF at baseline, 1-year risk of cancer/AF diagnosis, and their time trends were determined. The association of cancer/AF diagnosis with all-cause mortality among those with AF/cancer was estimated by using time-dependent Cox regression.

RESULTS

The rate of prevalence of cancer in the AF cohort was 12.6% (increasing from 11.9% to 13.2%) compared with 5.6% in the controls; 1-year cancer risk was 2.5% (stable over years) compared with 1.8% in the controls [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.52, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.46-1.58], which was similar by cancer type. The rate of prevalence of AF in the cancer cohort was 7.5% (increasing from 6.9% to 8.2%) compared with 4.3% in the controls; 1-year AF risk was 2.8% (stable over years) compared with 1.2% in the controls (aHR 2.78, 95% CI 2.69-2.87), but cancers of the oesophagus, lung, stomach, myeloma, and lymphoma were associated with higher hazards of AF than other cancer types. Both cancer diagnosed after incident AF (aHR 7.77, 95% CI 7.45-8.11) and AF diagnosed after incident cancer (aHR 2.55, 95% CI 2.47-2.63) were associated with all-cause mortality, but the strength of the association varied by cancer type.

CONCLUSIONS

Atrial fibrillation and cancer were associated bidirectionally and were increasingly coexisting, but AF risk varied by cancer type. Coexisting AF and cancer were negatively associated with survival.

Two-year incidence and risk factors of diabetic foot ulcer: second phase report of Ahvaz diabetic foot cohort (ADFC) study

AIM/INTRODUCTION

This study was designed as the second phase of a prospective cohort study to evaluate the incidence and risk factors of diabetic foot ulcers (DFU).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study was conducted in a university hospital in Iran. Each participant was checked and followed up for two years in terms of developing newfound DFU as ultimate outcome. We investigated the variables using univariate analysis and then by backward elimination multiple logistic regression.

RESULTS

We followed up 901 eligible patients with diabetes for two years. The mean age of the participants was 53.24 ± 11.46 years, and 58.53% of them were female. The two-year cumulative incidence of diabetic foot ulcer was 8% (95% CI 0.071, 0.089) [Incidence rate: 49.9 /1000 person-years]. However, the second-year incidence which was coincident with the COVID-19 pandemic was higher than the first-year incidence (4.18% and 1.8%, respectively). Based on our analysis, the following variables were the main risk factors for DFU incidence: former history of DFU or amputation [OR = 76.5, 95% CI(33.45,174.97), P value < 0.001], ill-fitting foot-wear [OR = 10.38, 95% CI(4.47,24.12), P value < 0.001], smoking [OR = 3.87,95%CI(1.28, 11.71),P value = 0.016], lack of preventive foot care [OR = 2.91%CI(1.02,8.29),P value = 0.045], and insufficient physical activity[OR = 2.25,95% CI(0.95,5.35),P value = 0.066].

CONCLUSION

Overall, the two-year cumulative incidence of diabetic foot ulcer was 8% [Incidence rate: 49.9 /1000 person-years]; however, the second-year incidence was higher than the first-year incidence which was coincident with the COVID-19 pandemic (4.18% and 1.8%, respectively). Independent risk factors of DFU occurrence were prior history of DFU or amputation, ill-fitting footwear, smoking, lack of preventive foot care, and insufficient physical activity.

Correlation between socioeconomic indices and epidemiological indices of thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2019 year: a global ecologic study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of thyroid cancer as the most common type of endocrine gland malignancy has risen more significantly than any malignancies in recent years. Estimated new cases of thyroid cancer in the United States in 2024 were 12,500 and 31,520 for men and women, respectively, and estimated deaths were 1,180 for women and 990 for men. Indices of socio-economic have been commonly used to measure the development of countries. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the correlation between indices of socioeconomic status and epidemiological indices of thyroid cancer throughout the world. In addition, this study has compared two indices of human development and a socio-demographic index.

METHOD

This worldwide ecological study used data on thyroid cancer incidence, mortality, human development index (HDI), and sociodemographic index (SDI) between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). We evaluated the correlation between incidence and mortality rates with socioeconomic indices by using Pearson's correlation coefficient. Furthermore, for the first time, the generalized additive model (GAM) was employed for modeling. The statistical software R, version 4.2.2, was used to conduct all statistical analyses.

RESULTS

The correlation between the incidence of thyroid cancer and the HDI was significant and positive (r = 0.47, p-value < 0.001). While the correlation between thyroid cancer mortality and HDI was not statistically significant (r = 0.01, p-value = 0.076). Besides, the incidence of thyroid cancer was significantly positively correlated with SDI (r = 0.48, p-value < 0.001). The multiple GAM showed that for one unit increase in HDI, the risk of thyroid cancer was increased by 2.1 times (RR = 2.1, 95%CI = 2.04 to 2.19), and for one unit increase in SDI, the risk of thyroid cancer was shown to increase by 2.2 times. (RR = 2.2, 95%CI = 2.19 to 2.35).

CONCLUSION

It has been evident that countries with higher incidence of thyroid cancer display higher socioeconomic indices. While, countries with higher socioeconomic indices, report lower mortality rates. However, based on the modeling results, it can be concluded that the SDI is slightly more useful in this regard. Therefore, examining the epidemiological indices of thyroid cancer by socio-economic indices can be useful to reflect a clear image of the distribution of this cancer in each country, and can be used for planning cancer prevention strategies.

Central Venous Access Device-Associated Skin Complications in Adults with Cancer: A Prospective Observational Study

OBJECTIVES

To identify the prevalence and type of central venous access device-associated skin complications for adult cancer patients, describe central venous access device management practices, and identify clinical and demographic characteristics associated with risk of central venous access device-associated skin complications.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study of 369 patients (626 central venous access devices; 7,682 catheter days) was undertaken between March 2017 and March 2018 across two cancer care in-patient units in a large teaching hospital.

RESULTS

Twenty-seven percent (n = 168) of participants had a central venous access device-associated skin complication. In the final multivariable analysis, significant (P < .05) risk factors for skin complications were cutaneous graft versus host disease (2.1 times greater risk) and female sex (1.4 times greater risk), whereas totally implanted vascular access device reduced risk for skin complications by two-thirds (incidence risk ratio 0.37).

CONCLUSION

Central venous access device-associated skin complications are a significant, potentially avoidable injury, requiring cancer nurses to be aware of high-risk groups and use evidence-based preventative and treatment strategies.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

This study has confirmed how common these potentially preventable injuries are. Therefore, the prevalence of these complications could be reduced by focusing on improvements in skin assessment, reductions in central venous access device dressing variation and improving clinician knowledge of this injury.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on renal cancer care

PURPOSE

To evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on renal cell carcinoma (RCC) care in the Netherlands.

METHODS

Newly diagnosed RCCs between 2018 and 2021 were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry; 2020-2021 was defined as COVID period and 2018-2019 as reference period. Numbers of RCCs were evaluated using 3-week-moving averages, overall and by disease stage and age. Changes in treatment were evaluated with logistic regression analyses. To evaluate possible delays in care, time to start of treatment was assessed. The cumulative number of metastatic RCC (mRCC) over time was assessed to evaluate stage shift.

RESULTS

During the 1st COVID wave (weeks 9-22, 2020), the number of new RCC diagnoses decreased with 15%. Numbers restored partially in 2020, but remained 10% lower compared to 2018/2019. The decline was mostly due to a drop in T1a/T1b RCCs and in age > 70 years. 2021 showed similar numbers of new RCC diagnoses compared to 2018/2019 without an increase due to previously missed RCCs. Treatment-related changes during the 1st COVID wave were limited and temporarily; less surgery in T1a RCCs in favor of more active surveillance, and in mRCC targeted therapy was preferred over immunotherapy. Time to start of firstline treatment was not prolonged during the 1st COVID wave. No increase in mRCC was found until the end of 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in fewer RCC diagnoses, especially T1a/T1b tumors. Treatment-related changes appeared to be limited, temporarily and in accordance with the adapted guidelines. The diagnostic delay could lead to more advanced RCCs in later years but there are no indications for this yet.

Decrease in incidence of distal radius fractures in Oslo, Norway

This study reported the incidence of validated adult distal radius fractures in Oslo, Norway, in 2019. The incidence has been reduced over the last 20 years. However, it is still high compared to other regions in Norway and some of the other Nordic countries.

PURPOSE

We aimed to report the incidence of distal radius fractures in Oslo in 2019 and compare it to the incidence rates in 1998/1999.

METHODS

Patients aged ≥ 20 years resident in Oslo sustaining a distal radius fracture in 2019 were identified by electronic diagnosis registers, patient protocols, and/or radiology registers. The diagnosis was verified using medical records and/or radiology descriptions. We used the same method as the previous study from Oslo, making the comparison over time more accurate. The age-adjusted incidence rates and the age-standardized incidence rate ratio (IRR) were calculated.

RESULTS

The absolute number of fractures decreased from 1490 in 1998/1999 to 1395 in 2019. The IRR for women and men in the age group ≥ 20 years in 2019 compared to 1998/1999 was 0.77 (95% CI 0.71-0.84) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.66-0.90), respectively. The IRR for women and men in the age group ≥ 50 years in 2019 compared to 1998/1999 was 0.78 (95% CI 0.71-0.86) and 0.78 (95% CI 0.63-0.97), respectively. For the population in Oslo with Asian background compared to Norwegian background in the age group ≥ 50 years, the IRR in 2019 was 0.57 (95% CI 0.40-0.80) for women and 0.77 (95% CI 0.44-1.37) for men.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of distal radius fractures in Oslo has decreased over the last 20 years. It is still, however, higher than in other areas of Norway and in some of the other Nordic countries.

Prognostic model to predict the incidence of radiographic knee osteoarthritis

OBJECTIVE

Early diagnosis of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) in asymptomatic stages is essential for the timely management of patients using preventative strategies. We develop and validate a prognostic model useful for predicting the incidence of radiographic KOA (rKOA) in non-radiographic osteoarthritic subjects and stratify individuals at high risk of developing the disease.

METHODS

Subjects without radiographic signs of KOA according to the Kellgren and Lawrence (KL) classification scale (KL=0 in both knees) were enrolled in the OA initiative (OAI) cohort and the Prospective Cohort of A Coruña (PROCOAC). Prognostic models were developed to predict rKOA incidence during a 96-month follow-up period among OAI participants based on clinical variables and serum levels of the candidate protein biomarkers APOA1, APOA4, ZA2G and A2AP. The predictive capability of the biomarkers was assessed based on area under the curve (AUC), and internal validation was performed to correct for overfitting. A nomogram was plotted based on the regression parameters. Model performance was externally validated in the PROCOAC.

RESULTS

282 participants from the OAI were included in the development dataset. The model built with demographic, anthropometric and clinical data (age, sex, body mass index and WOMAC pain score) showed an AUC=0.702 for predicting rKOA incidence during the follow-up. The inclusion of ZA2G, A2AP and APOA1 data significantly improved the model's sensitivity and predictive performance (AUC=0.831). The simplest model, including only clinical covariates and ZA2G and A2AP serum levels, achieved an AUC=0.826. Both models were internally cross-validated. Predictive performance was externally validated in an independent dataset of 100 individuals from the PROCOAC (AUC=0.713).

CONCLUSION

A novel prognostic model based on common clinical variables and protein biomarkers was developed and externally validated to predict rKOA incidence over a 96-month period in individuals without any radiographic signs of disease. The resulting nomogram is a useful tool for stratifying high-risk populations and could potentially lead to personalised medicine strategies for treating OA.

Cumulative Incidence of Venous Thromboembolic Events In-Hospital, and at 1, 3, 6, and 12 Months After Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery: Systematic Review of 87 Studies and Meta-analysis of 2,731,797 Patients

Systematic review/meta-analysis of cumulative incidences of venous thromboembolic events (VTE) after metabolic and bariatric surgery (MBS). Electronic databases were searched for original studies. Proportional meta-analysis assessed cumulative VTE incidences. (PROSPERO ID:CRD42020184529). A total of 3066 records, and 87 studies were included (N patients = 4,991,683). Pooled in-hospital VTE of mainly laparoscopic studies = 0.15% (95% CI = 0.13-0.18%); pooled cumulative incidence increased to 0.50% (95% CI = 0.33-0.70%); 0.51% (95% CI = 0.38-0.65%); 0.72% (95% CI = 0.13-1.52%); 0.78% (95% CI = 0-3.49%) at 30 days and 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively. Studies using predominantly open approach exhibited higher incidence than laparoscopic studies. Within the first month, 60% of VTE occurred after discharge. North American and earlier studies had higher incidence than non-North American and more recent studies. This study is the first to generate detailed estimates of the incidence and patterns of VTE after MBS over time. The incidence of VTE after MBS is low. Improved estimates and time variations of VTE require longer-term designs, non-aggregated reporting of characteristics, and must consider many factors and the use of data registries. Extended surveillance of VTE after MBS is required.

Myocardial infarction in a population-based cohort of patients with biopsy-confirmed giant cell arteritis in southern Sweden

OBJECTIVES

To determine the incidence rate (IR) of myocardial infarction (MI), relative risk of MI, and impact of incident MI on mortality in individuals with biopsy-confirmed giant cell arteritis (GCA).

METHODS

MIs in individuals diagnosed with GCA 1998-2016 in Skåne, Sweden were identified by searching the SWEDEHEART register, a record of all patients receiving care for MI in a coronary care unit (CCU). The regional diagnosis database, with subsequent case review, identified GCA patients receiving care for MI outside of a CCU. A cohort of 10 reference subjects for each GCA case, matched for age, sex and area of residence, was used to calculate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of MI in GCA to that in the general population.

RESULTS

The GCA cohort comprised 1134 individuals. During 7958 person-years of follow-up, 102 were diagnosed with incident MI, yielding an IR of 12.8 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 10.3 to 15.3). The IR was highest in the 30 days following GCA diagnosis and declined thereafter. The IRR of MI in GCA to that of the background population was 1.29 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.59). Mortality was higher in GCA patients who experienced incident MI than in those without MI (HR 2.8; 95% CI 2.2 to 3.6).

CONCLUSIONS

The highest incidence of MI occurs within the 30 days following diagnosis of GCA. Individuals with GCA have a moderately increased risk of MI compared with a reference population. Incident MI has a major impact on mortality in GCA.

Global, regional, and national burden of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for facial fractures from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

Facial fractures are common injuries causing cosmetic, functional, and psychological damage. The purpose of this study was to assess the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of facial fractures from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD).

METHODS

Detailed data for the disease burden of facial fractures were obtained from online available public data (Global Health Data Exchange) derived from the GBD study. The incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of facial fractures from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed by country, region, age, gender, sociodemographic index (SDI), and cause. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized YLDs rate (ASYR), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated to evaluate the disease burden and quantify the trends over time. The main causes of facial fractures in different years and ages were assessed.

RESULTS

Globally, there were 8.9 million incident cases, 1.5 million cases prevalent cases, and 98.1 thousand years YLDs in 2019. Compared with 1990, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, and YLDs increased, while ASIR (EAPC, - 0.47; 95% uncertainty interval [UI], - 0.57 to - 0.37), ASPR (EAPC, - 0.39; 95% UI, - 0.46 to - 0.31), ASYR (EAPC, - 0.39; 95% UI, - 0.47 to - 0.32) showed a downward trend. The high SDI region held the highest ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR both in 1990 and 2019, such as New Zealand, Slovenia, and Australia. The burden was higher in men than in women from 1990 to 2019, while the ASRs in women exceeded that of men in the elderly. The ASIR peaked in the young adult group, however, the ASPR and ASYR increased with age. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of facial fractures.

CONCLUSIONS

Facial fractures continue to cause a heavy burden on public health worldwide. More targeted strategies need to be established to control the burden of facial fractures.

The influence of age, period, and cohort factors on the incidence of kidney cancer in Spain 1990-2019: Evidence from the global burden of disease study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the influence of age, period, and cohort (A-P-C) factors on kidney cancer (KC) incidence trends in Spain from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Employing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we employed joinpoint analysis to determine long-term patterns and A-P-C modelling to quantify net drift, local drift, longitudinal age curves, and rate ratios (RRs) of period and cohort effects.

RESULTS

Over the period 1990-2019, an estimated 142,811 cases of KC were diagnosed in Spain. A consistent upward trend in KC incidence was observed for both men and women, with the male-to-female ratio remaining stable at 2.6. Joinpoint analysis identified three distinct periods for men: An initial period (1990-1995) characterised by a significant increase in rates, a subsequent period (1995-2016) characterised by a slowdown in the rate of increase, and a final period (2016-2019) in which rates have plateaued. In women, 2 time periods were observed: an initial period (1990-2007) in which rates increased significantly, followed by a period of stabilization (2007-2019). Men born in the early-mid 20th century had a rising KC risk, peaking in the 1960s. Women's risk rose steadily, peaking in the late 1990s.

CONCLUSION

A-P-C analysis reveals steady KC incidence increase in both genders over three decades. This highlights the need for targeted public health policies and effective prevention strategies.

Waning waves of mood: The declining trend of hospitalized patients with affective disorders in Germany

INTRODUCTION

Affective disorders profoundly affect individuals' emotional well-being and quality of life. This study investigates the epidemiology of affective disorders in Germany from 2011 to 2021, focusing on incidence rates, age- and sex-standardized rates, and developmental trends.

METHODS

Using nationwide data of ICD-10 diagnosis codes from 2011 to 2021, this cross-sectional study analyzed inpatient cases of affective disorders in individuals aged 20 years or older. Age- and sex-standardized incidence rates were calculated based on the population size of each birth cohort in the 16 German federal states. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for 2011 to 2021 and 2019 to 2021 were compared with a two-sample z-test.

RESULTS

Between 2011 and 2021, F30 (manic episode) showed a decline of 42.8 % to an incidence of 4.9 per 100,000 inhabitants, even though not statistically significant (p = 0.322). F31 (bipolar affective disorder) remained relatively stable with a reduction of 15.3 % to an incidence of 13.6 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2021 (p = 0.653). F32 (depressive episode) decreased statistically significant by 25.7 % to an incidence of 64.1 per 100,000 inhabitants (p = 0.072). F33 (recurrent depressive disorder) slightly increased by 18.3 % to an incidence of 94.6 per 100,000 inhabitants (p = 0.267). No statistically significant differences were found when comparing the COVID-19 pandemic year 2021 to 2019 incidences (p ≥ 0.529).

CONCLUSION

The study provides valuable insights into the changing landscape of affective disorders in Germany over the past decade. The observed decline in incidence rates underscores the importance of continued efforts to promote mental health awareness and access to care.

Cancer statistics in Yemen: incidence and mortality, in 2020

BACKGROUND

The current cancer epidemiological profile in Yemen suffers from a lack of locally representative data and resources, posing a challenge in determining the real incidence, prevalence, survival and mortality rates, particularly data extracted from national hospitals. This study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the cancer burden and trends in Yemen for 2020, including incidence and mortality rates.

METHODS

The current study provides cancer statistics and their trends in Yemen, including incidence and mortality, in 2020 by using descriptive statistics. The data was obtained using the Global Cancer Observatory (GCO) 2020 online database.

RESULTS

According to the (GCP) database in 2020, the crude incidence rate (CIR) of all cancers in Yemen was 55.2 per 100.000. The age-standardized rate (ASR) was 97.0 per 100.000, and the cumulative risk (0-74) was 22.0 per 100.000. The age-standardized rate (ASR) was 76.5 per 100.000, and the cumulative risk (0-74) was 19.6 per 100.000. Furthermore, the crude mortality rate (CIR) of all cancers was 40.6 per 100.000. Breast cancer was most prevalent in Yemen across all age groups and genders (31.1%), followed by colorectal cancer (7.7%) and leukemia (5.7%). Breast cancer also ranked as the primary cause of mortality at an estimated percentage of 13.5%, followed by colorectal cancer (8.8%) and stomach cancer (7.1%).

CONCLUSION

Cancer has become a significant life-threatening illness in Yemen with an increase in the disease burden of breast cancer in women. Furthermore, leukemia in children and colorectal cancer in both sexes have experienced a more significant burden as well. Therefore, it is imperative for initiatives for cancer control and prevention to be prioritised at national and regional levels.

Incidence and Risk Factors of Mental Illnesses Among Patients with Systemic Autoimmune Rheumatic Diseases: An 18-year population-based study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the incidence and risk factors surrounding mental illnesses in patients diagnosed with systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases (SARDs).

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study used nationwide, population-based claim data taken from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) to identify patients certified as having a catastrophic illness for Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), Rheumatoid arthritis (RA), Systemic sclerosis (SSc), Dermatomyositis (DM), Polymyositis (PM) or Sjogren's syndrome (SS) from the years 2002-2020. We furthermore calculated the incidence of mental illness in patients diagnosed with SARDs while exploring factors associated with the development of mental illness using multivariable Cox regression analysis shown as adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Among the 28 588 participants, the average age was 47.4 (SD 14.9) years, with most participants being female (76.4%). When compared with patients with rheumatoid arthritis, patients with SLE (HR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.10-1.32), SS (HR: 1.29, 95% CI: 1.19-1.39), and DM (HR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.04-1.32) showed a significantly increased risk of developing mental illness. Additionally, when compared with patients with rheumatoid arthritis, patients with SLE (HR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.21-1.44), SSc (HR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.02-1.41), SS (HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.08-1.26), DM (HR: 1.73, 95% CI: 1.44-2.07), and PM (HR: 1.64, 95% CI: 1.32-2.03) showed a significantly increased risk of antidepressant use.

CONCLUSIONS

This population-based cohort study revealed that patients diagnosed with SLE, SS and DM had significantly higher risks of developing mental illness when compared with patients with RA.

Hospital distribution, seasonality, time trends and antifungal susceptibility profiles of all Aspergillus species isolated from clinical samples from 2015 to 2022 in a tertiary care hospital

BACKGROUND

Aspergillus species cause a variety of serious clinical conditions with increasing trend in antifungal resistance. The present study aimed at evaluating hospital epidemiology and antifungal susceptibility of all isolates recorded in our clinical database since its implementation.

METHODS

Data on date of isolation, biological samples, patients' age and sex, clinical settings, and antifungal susceptibility tests for all Aspergillus spp. isolated from 2015 to 2022 were extracted from the clinical database. Score test for trend of odds, non-parametric Mann Kendall trend test and logistic regression analysis were used to analyze prevalence, incidence, and seasonality of Aspergillus spp. isolates.

RESULTS

A total of 1126 Aspergillus spp. isolates were evaluated. A. fumigatus was the most prevalent (44.1%) followed by A. niger (22.3%), A. flavus (17.7%) and A. terreus (10.6%). A. niger prevalence increased over time in intensive care units (p-trend = 0.0051). Overall, 16 (1.5%) were not susceptible to one azole compound, and 108 (10.9%) to amphotericin B, with A. niger showing the highest percentage (21.9%). The risk of detecting A. fumigatus was higher in June, (OR = 2.14, 95% CI [1.16; 3.98] p = 0.016) and reduced during September (OR = 0.48, 95% CI [0.27; 0.87] p = 0.015) and October as compared to January (OR = 0.39, 95% CI [0.21; 0.70] p = 0.002. A. niger showed a reduced risk of isolation from all clinical samples in the month of June as compared to January (OR = 0.34, 95% CI [0.14; 0.79] p = 0.012). Seasonal trend for A. flavus showed a higher risk of detection in September (OR = 2.7, 95% CI [1.18; 6.18] p = 0.019), October (OR = 2.32, 95% CI [1.01; 5.35] p = 0.048) and November (OR = 2.42, 95% CI [1.01; 5.79] p = 0.047) as compared to January.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to analyze, at once, data regarding prevalence, time trends, seasonality, species distribution and antifungal susceptibility profiles of all Aspergillus spp. isolates over a 8-year period in a tertiary care center. Surprisingly no increase in azole resistance was observed over time.

An ecological analysis of associations between ambient air pollution and cancer incidence rates in Taiwan

Air pollution is deemed a human carcinogen and can be linked to certain types of cancer other than lung cancer. The present study aimed to investigate the pollutant-cancer associations in a population-level cohort. We obtained the annual age-standardized incidence rates of 28 different cancer types between 2015 to 2019 from the Taiwan Cancer Registry. Outdoor concentrations of particulate matter with a diameter of 10 μm or less (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ground-level ozone (O3), and carbon monoxide (CO) between 2001 to 2010 were retrieved from the Taiwan Air Quality Monitoring Network. Weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression models were used to determine the combined effects of five air pollutants on the relationship to cancer incidence rates after controlling for sex ratio, age, average disposable income per household, overweight/obesity prevalence, current smoking rate, and drinking rate. Trend analyses showed that NO2 and CO concentrations tended to decrease, while SO2 concentrations increased in some counties. WQS regression analyses revealed significantly positive correlations between air pollutants and liver cancer, lung and tracheal cancer, colorectal cancer, thyroid cancer, kidney cancer, and small intestine cancer. Altogether, the results from this ecological study unravel that exposure to ambient air pollution is associated with the incidence of several non-lung cancer types.

Declining incidence and improving survival of ocular and orbital lymphomas in the US between 1995 and 2018

This epidemiological study examined ocular and orbital lymphomas in the United States from 1995 to 2018, using data from the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries database of 87,543 patients with ocular and adnexal malignancies. We identified 17,878 patients (20.4%) with ocular and orbital lymphomas, with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 2.6 persons per million (ppm). The incidence was the highest in the orbit (ASIR = 1.24), followed by the conjunctiva (ASIR = 0.57). Non-Hodgkin B-cell lymphoma was the most prevalent subtype (85.4%), particularly marginal-zone lymphoma (45.7%). Racial disparities were noted, with Asia-Pacific Islanders showing the highest incidence (orbit, 1.3 ppm). The incidence increased significantly from 1995 to 2003 (Average Percent Change, APC = 2.1%) but declined thereafter until 2018 (APC = - 0.7%). 5-year relative survival (RS) rates varied, with the highest rate for conjunctival lymphoma (100%) and the lowest for intraocular lymphoma (70.6%). Survival rates have generally improved, with an annual increase in the 5-year RS of 0.45%. This study highlights the changing epidemiological landscape, pointing to initial increases and subsequent decreases in incidence until 2003, with survival improvements likely due to advancements in treatment. These findings underscore the need for further research to investigate the root causes of these shifts and the declining incidence of ocular lymphoma.

Influence of diabetes and other risk factors on in-hospital mortality following kidney transplantation: an analysis of the Spanish National Hospital Discharge Database from 2016 to 2020

INTRODUCTION

To assess time trends in incidence, clinical characteristics, complications, and hospital outcomes among patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D), with type 2 diabetes (T2D), and patients without diabetes who underwent kidney transplant (KT); to identify variables associated with in-hospital mortality (IHM); and to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We used a nationwide discharge database to select KT recipients admitted to Spanish hospitals from 2016 to 2020. We stratified patients according to diabetes status. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify the variables associated with IHM.

RESULTS

A total of 14 594 KTs were performed in Spain (T2D, 22.28%; T1D, 3.72%). The number of KTs rose between 2016 and 2019 and and decreased from 2019 to 2020 in all groups. In patients with T2D, the frequency of KT complications increased from 21.08% in 2016 to 34.17% in 2020 (p<0.001). Patients with T2D had significantly more comorbidity than patients with T1D and patients without diabetes (p<0.001). Patients with T1D experienced KT rejection significantly more frequently (8.09%) than patients with T2D (5.57%).COVID-19 was recorded in 26 out of the 2444 KTs performed in 2020, being found in 6 of the 39 patients deceased that year (15.38%) and in 0.83% of the survivors.The variables associated with IHM were comorbidity and complications of KT. The presence of T1D was associated with IHM (OR 2.6; 95% CI 1.36 to 5.16) when patients without diabetes were the reference category. However, T2D was not associated with a higher IHM (OR 0.86; 95% CI 0.61 to 1.2).

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a decrease in the number of transplants. Patients with T1D have more rejection of the transplanted organ than patients with T2D. Fewer women with T2D undergo KT. The presence of T1D is a risk factor for IHM.

Epidemiology and Anatomical Distribution of Primary Brain Tumors among Children in Palestine: A 6-Year National Referral Institution Study

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this research was to investigate the incidence rate of primary brain tumors (PBTs) among Palestinian children over a 6-year interval. Additionally, the study aimed to identify the predominant histopathological types identified in these children.

METHODS

This retrospective epidemiologic study focused on PBTs in children (< 15 years) in Palestine. The data were collected from the registry system at Al-Makassed Hospital in Jerusalem, a prominent referral institution in Palestine and the largest center for PBTs in the region, over a 6 years period from 2018 to 2023.

RESULTS

The incidence rate of PBTs in children (<15 years) was 1.33 per 100,000 person-years, with a 5% mortality rate. Pilocytic astrocytoma was the most common type (24%), followed by medulloblastoma (15.2%), and glioblastoma (6.3%). About half of the tumors in children were malignant. Headaches were the most common first sign or symptom. About 20% of brain tumors in children were situated within the ventricles, making it the most prevalent location of these tumors, followed by the cerebellum (15.19%), and frontal lobe (11.39%).

CONCLUSION

This is the first national study in Palestine investigating PBTs in children. The crude incidence rate of primary brain tumors among Palestinian children was lower than the incidence rate in many countries around the world. It is recommended that more research be done on the epidemiology and distribution of PBTs in children in Palestine.

Incidence and centralization of chordoma in the Netherlands: A nationwide study between 1991 and 2020

INTRODUCTION

Chordomas are rare malignant bone tumors arising in the axial skeleton, with an incidence of 0.3-0.88 per million inhabitants. We studied the annual incidence rate and centralization of treatment for chordoma in the Netherlands.

METHODS

We retrieved pathology excerpts from the PALGA nationwide Dutch Pathology Registry between 1991 and 2019 for patients with a chordoma to calculate incidence rates. From pathology reports we extracted patient age at diagnosis, sex, year of diagnosis, localization of primary tumor, histologic chordoma subtype (conventional including chondroid, poorly differentiated or dedifferentiated), center of diagnosis (bone tumor referral center (BTC) or other hospital), and partial identification of the BTCs.

RESULTS

A total of 420 individual chordoma patients were identified in the given time period. The incidence of chordoma increased from 0.593 per million inhabitants between 1991-1995 to 1.111 from 2015-2019 (P = 0.001). Median age at diagnosis was 63 years (range 1-95), 252 patients (60%) were male. The proportion of samples analyzed in a BTC either primarily or secondary, as a consultation, revision or referral, increased significantly from 29.3% to 84.4% (P < 0.001). Most primary and secondary samples were analyzed at the Leiden University Medical Center (LUMC, 54.4% and 57% respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows an increase in the standardized incidence of pathology proven chordoma in the Netherlands. We observed an increase in samples being analysed in the specialized BTCs as well, which is in line with current guidelines and will hopefully lead to more accurate diagnoses and optimal treatment plans for chordoma patients in specialized treatment centers.

Prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis in Isfahan, Iran between 1996 and 2021: A population-based study

BACKGROUND

There has been no recent comprehensive epidemiological study on a large and stable population of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Isfahan. Therefore, we conducted this study to estimate the incidence and prevalence of MS in Isfahan province from 1996 to 2021.

METHOD

In this population-based study, we utilized the dataset from the Vice-Chancellor's Office of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, which registers all people diagnosed with MS (PDWM) in Isfahan province, excluding those residing in Kashan city. We measured crude incidence and prevalence of MS, separated by sex, and based on age of MS onset, as well as changes in age of MS onset during observation.

RESULTS

A total of 9,909 PDWM were included in our study. The incidence during the time period of 1996-2000 was 5.4/100,000 (1.1/100,000 per year), which subsequently increased to 14.1 (2.8/100,000 per years) and 31.1 per 100,000 (6.2/100,000 per year) during 2001-2005 and 2006-2010, respectively. There was a further increase to 70.9/100,000 (14.2/100,000 per year) in 2011-2015, but it remained stable at 71.8/100,000 (12/100,000 per year) during the period of 2016-2021. In 2016, the age-standardized incidence rates of pediatric-onset, adult-onset, and late-onset MS were 1.8/100,000, 31.4/100,000, and 17.5/100,000, respectively. The prevalence of MS in 2021 was 183.9/100,000. The female/male new case ratio was 4.5 during 1996-2000, decreasing to 4.0, 3.9, 3.9, and 2.9 in the subsequent four five-year periods. The mean age of RRMS onset was 26.3 ± 8.1 between 1990 and 1999, 28.5 ± 8.3 during 2000-2009, and increased to 32.8 ± 9.6 in 2010-2019.

CONCLUSION

This study shows that Isfahan has one of the highest incidence rate and prevalence ratio of MS in the region. We observed an increase in the incidence rate during the first decade, followed by stability in the last two five- and six-year periods. Further studies are needed to identify the reasons behind the change in incidence of MS in Iran.

Epidemiologic Characteristics, Treatment Patterns, and Survival Analysis of Plasmablastic Lymphoma in the United States: A SEER and NCDB Analysis

BACKGROUND

Plasmablastic Lymphoma (PBL) is a rare aggressive B-cell lymphoma that primarily affects immunocompromised individuals, including those living with HIV. Historically, survival estimates are dismal and range from 8 to 15 months. We aimed to evaluate epidemiologic characteristics, treatment patterns and survival trends on a national scale.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients diagnosed with PBL from 2010 to 2020 were identified in the National Cancer Database (NCDB) and in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. Incidence rates were calculated using SEER. Demographic features, treatment characteristics, and overall survival (OS) were identified using the NCDB.

RESULTS

We identified 1153 patients in the SEER database and 1822 patients in the NCDB. The incidence of PBL is 0.07 cases per 100,000 US population per year. PBL is more common in males (77%), and white patients (77%), with 50% of cases in patients with HIV. Patients who were treated with multiagent chemotherapy had a median OS of 58.6 months. On multivariate Cox regression, we found that HIV status did not have a significant impact on OS. Factors associated with worse OS included advancing age and stage.

CONCLUSION

We present the largest study to date on PBL. Among treated patients, we described a median OS of 58.6 months, greatly improved from previously reported estimates. We found that HIV status did not have a significant impact on OS. While OS remains poor, therapeutic advances over the last decade are promising and highlight the need for continued clinical advances aimed at improving therapeutic options for this rare lymphoma.

Trends in incidence, health care use and costs for subtrochanteric femur fractures in the Netherlands 2000-2019

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to provide population based trends in incidence rate, hospital length of stay (HLOS), trauma mechanism, and costs for healthcare and lost productivity of subtrochanteric femur fractures in the Netherlands.

METHODS

Data on patients with subtrochanteric femur fractures sustained between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2019 were extracted from the National Medical Registration of the Dutch Hospital Database. Incidence rates, HLOS, health care and productivity costs were calculated in sex- and age-specific groups.

RESULTS

A total of 14,399 patients sustained a subtrochanteric fracture in the 20-year study period. Incidence rates in the entire population dropped by 15.5 % from 4.5 to 3.8 per 100,000 person years (py). This decline was larger in women (6.4 to 5.2 per 100,000 py, -19.8 %) than in men (2.6 to 2.5 per 100,000 py, -4.0 %). HLOS declined by 62.5 % from a mean of 21.6 days in 2000-2004 to 8.1 days in 2015-2019. Subtrochanteric fractures were associated with total annual costs of €15.5 M, of which 91 % (€14.1 M) were health care costs and €1.3 M were costs due to lost productivity. Mean healthcare costs per case were lower in men (€16,394) than in women (€23,154).

CONCLUSION

The incidence rates and HLOS of subtrochanteric fractures in the Netherlands have decreased in the 2000-2019 study period and subtrochanteric fractures are associated with a relatively small total annual cost of €15.5 M. Increasing incidence rates and a bimodal age distribution, described in previous studies from other European countries, were not found in the Dutch population.

Male elite soccer players have a higher incidence of accessory ossicles in the foot and ankle

PURPOSE

Accessory ossicles are caused by the failure of the fusion of secondary ossification centres and are more likely to occur due to heavy loading during the growth period or improper treatment after injury. This study aimed to investigate the incidence of foot and ankle accessory ossicles in male professional soccer players.

METHODS

This study included male professional soccer players who underwent medical checkups at our hospital between 2017 and 2023 as the soccer group. Medical checkups included radiographs of bilateral anteroposterior and oblique foot, as well as bilateral anteroposterior and lateral ankle. Male patients age-matched with the soccer group who visited our hospital undergoing anteroposterior and oblique foot or anteroposterior and lateral ankle radiography were included in the control group. The incidence of accessory ossicles was investigated and compared between the soccer and control groups.

RESULTS

In this study, 276 ankles and 276 feet, as well as 121 ankles and 79 feet, were included in the soccer and control groups, respectively. The incidence of accessory ossicles in the soccer and control groups was as follows: accessory navicular 35.9%, 24% (P = .049), os peroneum 8.0%, 2.5% (P = .09); os supranaviculare 7.6%, 1.3% (P = .039); os infranaviculare 1.4%, 1.3% (P = .090); os calcaneus secundarius 4.3%, 0% (P = .059); os vesalianum 0%, 0%; os subfiblare 12.7%, 2.5% (P < .001); os subtibiale 18.1%, 2.5% (P = .001); and os trigonum 89%, 24% (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Male professional soccer players had a higher incidence of accessory navicular, os supranaviculare, os subfiblare, os subtibiale, and os trigonum.

Effectiveness of Carboplatin-Prescreening Intradermal Skin Tests to Reduce Unanticipated Immediate Hypersensitivity Reactions: A Comparative Study

BACKGROUND

Carboplatin administration poses a risk of immediate hypersensitivity reactions (IHRs) that tend to increase with repeated administration and are mostly IgE-mediated.

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated the usefulness of carboplatin-prescreening intradermal skin tests (IDTs).

METHODS

Carboplatin-prescreening IDTs were routinely conducted in patients with a history of receiving six or more carboplatin cycles beginning in January 2021. The primary objective was to assess disparities in the incidence of unanticipated IHRs to carboplatin administration. We compared patients in the intervention group (from 2021 to 2022) and those who did not undergo prescreening IDTs under the same conditions (preintervention group, from 2019 to 2020). Secondary objectives included evaluating the sensitivity and specificity of the prescreening IDT and the incidence of carboplatin IHR according to the number of infusion cycles.

RESULTS

The intervention group was composed of 67 patients who were administered 347 carboplatin cycles whereas the preintervention group included 96 patients who were administered 464 carboplatin cycles. The risk of unanticipated carboplatin IHRs decreased by 83.2% in the intervention group compared with results in the preintervention group (preintervention group, 3.45%, n = 16 vs intervention group, 0.58%, n = 2; P = .005). The prescreening IDT showed a sensitivity and specificity of 77.78% and 99.41%, respectively. The risk of newly developed IHRs based on the number of carboplatin cycles was less than 1% (cycles 1-5), 2.11% (cycle 6), 3.90% (cycles 7-12), 2.90% (cycles 13-18), and 0.74% (cycles 19 and greater), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Initiating carboplatin-prescreening IDTs from the seventh cycle on significantly reduced the risk of unanticipated IHRs.

A systematic review and meta-regression on international trends in the incidence of ulcerative colitis in children and adolescents associated with socioeconomic and geographic factors

The incidence of ulcerative colitis (UC) among children and adolescents is rising globally, albeit with notable discrepancies across countries. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the incidence rates of pediatric UC in various countries and explore potential influencing factors. A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed and EMBASE (via OVID) for studies published between January 1, 1970, and December 31, 2019. Additionally, a manual search was performed to identify relevant systematic reviews. Meta-analyses and meta-regressions were employed to determine the overall incidence rate and examine potential factors that may influence it. A total of 66 studies were included in the qualitative analysis, while 65 studies were included in the meta-analysis and 50 studies were meta-regression. The study reports a rising incidence of pediatric UC in several countries but significant differences across geographic regions, with no discernible global temporal trend. In addition, our meta-regression analysis showed that geographic location and socioeconomic factors significantly influenced the incidence of UC.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate a rising incidence of pediatric UC in numerous countries since 1970, but with significant geographical variation, potentially presenting challenges for respective healthcare systems. We have identified geographic and socioeconomic factors that contribute to the observed heterogeneity in incidence rates. These findings provide a foundation for future research and health policies, aiming to tackle the growing burden of UC among children and adolescents.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• The incidence of ulcerative colitis in childhood and adolescence appears to be increasing worldwide and varies internationally. • Environmental and lifestyle factors are suspected as potential causes.

WHAT IS NEW

• Our results highlight that the heterogeneity in incidence rates can be attributed to geographic and socio-economic factors.

Hospitalization-based epidemiology of systemic and cardiac amyloidosis in the Veneto Region, Italy

AIM

Defining the epidemiology of systemic and cardiac amyloidosis (CA) is a contemporary challenge. The present study aimed to estimate incidence and time trends in amyloidosis-related hospitalizations (AH) in Veneto Region (5 million inhabitants, Northeastern Italy).

METHODS

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9) codes were used to identify AH in Veneto from 2010 to 2020. AH were defined as any hospitalization with a discharge summary reporting an ICD-9 code for systemic amyloidosis. Hospitalization for CA was defined as records with ICD-9 code for systemic amyloidosis and ICD-9 code for heart failure,cardiomyopathy or arrhythmia. Hospital/outpatient encounters for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) surgeries also were extracted. AH incidence was estimated using a buffer of 5 years.

RESULTS

In the time range 2015-2020, the incidence rate of AH was 23.5 cases per 106 (95% confidence interval, CI, 21.8; 25.3), mainly affecting patients>65 years (76.2%) and males (63.5%), with a progressively increasing trend (percent annual increase 17%, 95% CI 12; 22%). The 10 year prevalence of AH in 2020 was 124.5 per 106 (95% CI 114.9; 134.8). In 2020, annual hospitalized prevalent cases of CA were about 70% of all cases (159/228), mainly patients >65 years and males. Among patients with multiple CTS surgeries, a subsequent code for cardiac disease was found in 913 after a median of 3.9 years, more frequently in men than in women (463/6.526 7.1% versus 450/11.406 3.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

In Veneto, we recorded a significantly increasing trend in the incidence of AH, with concordant increasing prevalence estimates.

Interferon-gamma release assay conversion after Mycobacterium tuberculosis exposure specifically associates with greater risk of progression to tuberculosis: A prospective cohort study in Leicester, UK

OBJECTIVES

We investigated whether quantifying the serial QuantiFERON-TB Gold (QFT) response improves tuberculosis (TB) risk stratification in pulmonary TB (PTB) contacts.

METHODS

A total of 297 untreated adult household PTB contacts, QFT tested at baseline and 3 months after index notification, were prospectively observed (median 1460 days). Normal variance of serial QFT responses was established in 46 extrapulmonary TB contacts. This informed categorisation of the response in QFT-positive PTB contacts as converters, persistently QFT-positive with significant increase (PPincrease), and without significant increase (PPno-increase).

RESULTS

In total, eight co-prevalent TB (disease ≤3 months after index notification) and 12 incident TB (>3 months after index notification) cases were diagnosed. Genetic linkage to the index strain was confirmed in all culture-positive progressors. The cumulative 2-year incident TB risk in QFT-positive contacts was 8.4% (95% confidence interval, 3.0-13.6%); stratifying by serial QFT response, significantly higher risk was observed in QFT converters (28%), compared with PPno-increase (4.8%) and PPincrease (3.7%). Converters were characterised by exposure to index cases with a shorter interval from symptom onset to diagnosis (median reduction 50.0 days, P = 0.013).

CONCLUSIONS

QFT conversion, rather than quantitative changes of a persistently positive serial QFT response, is associated with greater TB risk and exposure to rapidly progressive TB.

The association between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D and pancreatic cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

PURPOSE

The relationship between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and pancreatic cancer has been well studied but remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to elucidate the association between circulating 25(OH)D and pancreatic cancer by using a meta-analytic approach.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, and Wed of Science databases were searched through October 15, 2022. A random or fixed-effects model was used to estimate the pooled odds ratio (OR), risk ratio (RR), hazard ratio (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

A total of 16 studies including 529,917 participants met the inclusion criteria, of which 10 reported incidence and 6 reported mortality. For the highest versus lowest categories of circulating 25(OH)D, the pooled OR of pancreatic cancer incidence in case-control studies was 0.98 (95% CI 0.69-1.27), and the pooled HRs of pancreatic cancer mortality in cohort and case-control studies were 0.64 (95% CI 0.45-0.82) and 0.78 (95% CI 0.62-0.95), respectively. The leave-one-out sensitivity analyses found no outliers and Galbraith plots indicated no substantial heterogeneity.

CONCLUSION

Evidence from this meta-analysis suggested that high circulating 25(OH)D levels may be associated with decreased mortality but not incidence of pancreatic cancer. Our findings may provide some clues for the treatment of pancreatic cancer and remind us to be cautious about widespread vitamin D supplementation for the prevention of pancreatic cancer.

Recent trends in incidence, survival and treatment of multiple myeloma in Finland - a nationwide cohort study

This study aimed to determine the incidence and prevalence of multiple myeloma (MM) in Finland in 2015-2019, to characterize adult patients newly diagnosed with MM, and to follow-up their overall survival (OS) and treatment patterns until the end of 2020. We sourced the data on inpatient and outpatient diagnoses, outpatient medication use, and date of death from comprehensive, nationwide registers. We identified 2037 incident patients with MM in 2015-2019. On average, the annual crude incidence was 8.8 and the age-standardized incidence (World Standard Population) was 3.3 per 100,000. The crude prevalence at the end of 2019 was 32.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants ≥ 18 years of age. Median age of the patients at first diagnosis (index date) was 71 years, and 48% were female, the median follow-up being 2.4 years. The median OS was estimated at 4.5 years. The proportion of the patients receiving autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) within one year since the index date was 24%, with little variation across study years. Conversely, the proportion of all patients receiving lenalidomide within one year since the index date increased from 27 to 48% overall, and from 39 to 81% among ASCT recipients. The estimated median relapse-free survival after ASCT was 2.9 years. Information on in-hospital MM medication administrations was available for a subset of the study cohort. In this subset, 85.8% of the patients received immunomodulatory drugs and/or proteasome inhibitors within the first year after the index date.

Incidence of papillary thyroid cancer: Comparison of the military and the general population by race and tumor stage/size

BACKGROUND

A previous study found higher papillary thyroid cancer incidence in the US military than the general population with larger differences among Black than White individuals. This study compared the two populations in the incidence by sex, race, tumor stage, and size to assess possible factors related to identified differences.

METHODS

Subjects were aged 18-59 in the military and general populations. Papillary thyroid cancer patients diagnosed during 1990-2013 were identified from the Department of Defense's Automated Central Tumor Registry (ACTUR) and the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. Age-adjusted rates and incidence rate ratios (IRR) comparing ACTUR to SEER were calculated.

RESULTS

Higher incidence rates in ACTUR than SEER were more obvious for Black (IRR=2.07, 95%CI=1.56-2.70) than White men (IRR=1.17, 95%CI=1.07-1.26) and for Black (IRR=2.30, 95%CI=1.91-2.71) than White women (IRR=1.50, 95%CI=1.38-1.64). Population differences by race were observed for localized tumors among both men and women and were larger for Black individuals. Differences were observed regardless of tumor size among Black men and White women, and in smaller tumors among Black women.

CONCLUSION

Higher incidence in the military than general population primarily in localized tumors suggests universal healthcare in the military may lead to earlier detection. The differences were larger among Blacks than Whites, suggesting universal access in the military may be more impactful among Black persons, who are less likely to have timely care than White persons in the general population. Nevertheless, observed differences for tumors > 2 cm suggest other factors may also play a role.

Association between Antacid Exposure and Risk of Interstitial Lung Diseases

BACKGROUND

The mechanisms leading to lung fibrosis are still under investigation. This study aimed to demonstrate whether antacids could prevent the development of interstitial lung disease (ILD).

METHODS

This population-based longitudinal cohort study was conducted between January 2006 and December 2010 in South Korea. Eligible subjects were ≥40 years of age, exposed to proton pump inhibitors (PPI)±histamine-2 receptor antagonists (H-2 blockers) or H-2 blockers only, and had no history of ILD between 2004 and 2005. Exposure to antacids was defined as the administration of either PPI or H-2 receptor antagonists for >14 days, whereas underexposure was defined as antacid treatment administered for less than 14 days. Newly developed ILDs, including idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), were counted during the 5-year observation period. The association between antacid exposure and ILD development was evaluated using adjusted Cox regression models with variables, such as age, sex, smoking history, and comorbidities.

RESULTS

The incidence rates of ILD with/without antacid use were 43.2 and 33.8/100,000 person-years, respectively and those of IPF were 14.9 and 22.9/100,000 person-years, respectively. In multivariable analysis, exposure to antacid before the diagnosis of ILD was independently associated with a reduced development of ILD (hazard ratio [HR], 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.45 to 0.71; p<0.001), while antacid exposure was not associated with development of IPF (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.72 to 1.09; p=0.06).

CONCLUSION

Antacid exposure may be independently associated with a decreased risk of ILD development.

The trends in lung cancer prevalence, incidence, and survival in Hong Kong over the past two decades (2002-2021): a population-based study

Background

Over the past decades, significant progress in lung cancer management has been made. However, the trends in prevalence and survival of lung cancer in the Chinese population over the last decade remain unexplored. This study utilised a territory-wide electronic medical database in Hong Kong to provide the most up-to-date and comprehensive analysis of the trends in prevalence, incidence, and survival over the past two decades.

Methods

Descriptive epidemiology study using a retrospective cohort of lung cancer patients from the Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System (CDARS). 10-year limited-duration prevalence, incidence, and relative period survival were calculated between 2002 and 2021. Sub-groups of age, sex, and comorbidity were examined. The annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were estimated using joinpoint regression.

Findings

This study included 87,259 incident cases between 2002 and 2021. The 10-year limited duration prevalence (per 100,000 persons) of lung cancer increased from 153.4 to 228.7 (AAPC: 3.08%). Crude incidence (per 100,000 persons) increased from 55.0 to 70.3 (APC: 1.23%), while age-standardised incidence decreased from 42.9 to 33.2 (APC: -1.32%). The 1-year and 5-year relative period survivals showed an increasing trend but remained low. Disparity in trends was observed among different sex and age groups.

Interpretation

Lung cancer burden has been increasing partly due to population ageing. Although survival showed improvement over the years, it remained low, highlighting the potential need for interventions. Further study exploring the disparity in sex-specific trends is warranted.

Funding

The Innovation and Technology Commission, Hong Kong.