Prepublication abstract-only reports compared with full-text manuscripts for randomised controlled trials in inflammatory bowel disease: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of key therapies in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are often presented and available as abstracts for significant periods of time prior to full publication, often being employed to make strategic and clinical prescribing decisions. We compared the concordance of prepublication abstract-only reports and their respective full-text manuscripts.

METHODS

Pairs of full-text manuscripts and their respective prepublication abstract-only reports for the same RCT outcomes, at the same time point of analysis were included. The RCTs were on treatments for IBD with full-text manuscripts published between 2010 and 2023.

RESULTS

We found 77 pairs of full-text manuscripts and their prepublication abstract-only reports. There were significant mismatches in the reporting of stated planned outcomes (65/77 matched, p<0.001) and primary outcomes reported in their results sections (67/77, p<0.001); trial registrations (34/65, p<0.001); the number of randomised participants (49/77, p=0.18); participants reaching end of study (21/71, p<0.001) and primary outcome data (40/73, p<0.001). Authors conclusions matched (75/77, p=0.157). Authors did not provide explicit or implied justifications for the absence or non-concordance for any of the above items.

CONCLUSIONS

Abstract-only reports have consistent issues with both limited reporting of key information and significant differences in data when compared with their later full-text publications. These are not related to further recruitment of patients or word count limitations and are never explained. As abstracts are often used in guidelines, reviews and stakeholder decision-making on prescribing, caution in their use is strongly suggested. Further work is needed to enhance minimum reporting standards in abstract-only works and ensure consistency with final published papers.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between long working hours and hypertension risk

BACKGROUND

Hypertension, a major public health problem worldwide, has been linked to lifestyle factors and work conditions, with conflicting evidence on the association between long work hours and risk of hypertension.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies to investigate the relationship between working hours and hypertension or blood pressure, assessed the risk of bias and performed subgroup analyses. The protocol was registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews.

RESULTS

The pooled OR for the association between long working hours and risk of hypertension was 1.09 (95% CI: 0.88 to 1.35) in the 15 studies that used hypertension as the outcome. In the three studies that used blood pressure as the outcome, diastolic blood pressure was higher among those with long working hours compared with those with non-long working hours (1.24 mm Hg, 95% CI: 0.19 to 2.29). In subgroup analysis, the pooled OR for the association between long working hours and risk of hypertension was 1.28 (95% CI: 1.14 to 1.44) and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.64 to 1.56) in women and men, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Although this study could not clearly confirm the relationship between long working hours and hypertension, the subgroup analysis suggests that long working hours may be associated with hypertension, particularly among women. More reliable research is needed to establish causality.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42023406961.

Neurological conditions and subsequent divorce risk in the Nordic countries: the importance of gender and both spouses' education

BACKGROUND

Prior studies suggest that poor physical health, accompanied by functional disability, is associated with increased divorce risk. However, this association may depend on gender, the socioeconomic resources of the couple, as well as the social policy and social (in)equality context in which the illness is experienced. This study focuses on neurological conditions, which often have substantial functional consequences.

METHODS

We used longitudinal population-wide register data from the years 2007-2016 (Denmark, Sweden) or 2008-2017 (Finland, Norway) to follow 2 809 209 married couples aged 30-64 for neurological conditions, identified using information on specialised healthcare for diseases of the nervous system and subsequent divorce. Cox regression models were estimated in each country, and meta-analysis used to calculate across-country estimates.

RESULTS

During the 10-year follow-up period, 22.2% of couples experienced neurological conditions and 12.0% of marriages ended in divorce. In all countries, divorce risk was elevated among couples where at least one spouse had a neurological condition, and especially so if both spouses were ill. The divorce risk was either larger or similar for husband's illness, compared with wife's illness, in all educational categories. For the countries pooled, the weighted average HR was 1.21 (95% CI 1.20 to 1.23) for wives' illness, 1.27 (95% CI 1.25 to 1.29) for husbands' illness and 1.38 (95% CI 1.34 to 1.42) for couples where both spouses were ill.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite some variation by educational resources and country context, the results suggest that the social consequences of illness are noticeable even in Nordic welfare states, with the husband's illness being at least as important as the wife's.

School-based interventions TO Prevent Dating and Relationship Violence and Gender-Based Violence: STOP-DRV-GBV systematic review

Background

Schools have a duty of care to prevent violence between students but a significant amount of dating and relationship violence and gender-based violence occurs in schools. These are important public health issues with important longitudinal consequences for young people.

Objectives

To understand functioning and effectiveness of school-based interventions for the prevention of dating and relationship violence and gender-based violence.

Review methods

We undertook a mixed-methods systematic review to synthesise different types of evidence relating to school-based interventions for the prevention of dating and relationship violence and gender-based violence to understand if, how and in what ways these interventions are effective. We searched 21 databases and 2 trial registers and undertook forwards and backwards citation chasing, author contact and other supplementary search methods. Searches identified all literature published to June 2021. All screening was undertaken in duplicate and independently, and we quality appraised all included studies.

Results

We included 247 reports (68 outcome evaluations, 137 process evaluations). Synthesis of intervention components produced an intervention typology: single-component, curricular, multicomponent, and multilevel programmes. Synthesis of intervention theories suggested that interventions aiming to increase students' sense of school belonging and sense of safety in the school building could encourage increased learning of prosocial skills and increased prosocial peer norms, and so potentially reducing dating and relationship violence and gender-based violence. Synthesis of factors affecting delivery highlighted school organisation and leaders who believed in the importance of addressing dating and relationship violence/gender-based violence, along with time and resources to deliver the interventions. The ease with which the intervention could be delivered and modified was also important. Meta-analysis found stronger evidence for intervention effectiveness in reducing dating and relationship violence than for gender-based violence, with significant long-term impacts on dating and relationship violence victimisation and perpetration, and some evidence that interventions in high-income countries could be effective for reducing victimisation and perpetration of gender-based violence in the long-term. Impacts on knowledge and attitudes were primarily short-term. Network meta-analysis did not suggest superiority of any intervention type. Moderation evidence suggested interventions reduced dating and relationship violence perpetration in boys more than girls, but reduced gender-based violence perpetration more in girls. Metaregression by intervention component did not explain heterogeneity in effectiveness, but qualitative comparative analysis suggested that reducing perpetration was important to reducing victimisation, and that perpetration could be reduced via focus on interpersonal skills, guided practice and (for gender-based violence) implementation of social structural components.

Limitations

Despite an exhaustive search, trials may have been missed and risk of publication bias was high for several analyses.

Conclusions

This is the most comprehensive systematic review of school-based interventions for dating and relationship violence and gender-based violence to date. It is clear that the prevention of dating and relationship violence and gender-based violence in schools will require longer-term investment to show benefit.

Future work

Future research is needed to understand why intervention effectiveness appears stronger for dating and relationship violence than gender-based violence.

Study registration

The study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42020190463.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR130144) and is published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 12, No. 3. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Changing prevalence of chronic hepatitis B virus infection in China between 1973 and 2021: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of 3740 studies and 231 million people

OBJECTIVE

China concentrates a large part of the global burden of HBV infection, playing a pivotal role in achieving the WHO 2030 global hepatitis elimination target.

METHODS

We searched for studies reporting HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) seroprevalence in five databases until January 2023. Eligible data were pooled using a generalised linear mixed model with random effects to obtain summary HBsAg seroprevalence. Linear regression was used to estimate annual percentage change (APC) and HBsAg prevalence in 2021.

RESULTS

3740 studies, including 231 million subjects, were meta-analysed. HBsAg seroprevalence for the general population decreased from 9.6% (95% CI 8.4 to 10.9%) in 1973-1984 to 3.0% (95% CI 2.1 to 3.9%) in 2021 (APC=-3.77; p<0.0001). Decreases were more pronounced in children <5 years (APC=-7.72; p<0.0001) and 5-18 years (-7.58; p<0.0001), than in people aged 19-59 years (-2.44; p<0.0001), whereas HBsAg seroprevalence increased in persons ≥60 years (2.84; p=0.0007). Significant decreases were observed in all six major Chinese regions, in both men (APC=-3.90; p<0.0001) and women (-1.82; p<0.0001) and in high-risk populations. An estimated 43.3 million (95% uncertainty interval 30.7-55.9) persons remained infected with HBV in China in 2021 (3.0%), with notable heterogeneity by region (<1.5% in North China to>6% in Taiwan and Hong Kong) and age (0.3%, 1.0%, 4.7% and 5.6% for <5 years, 5-18 years, 19-59 years and ≥60 years, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

China has experienced remarkable decreases in HBV infection over the last four decades, but variations in HBsAg prevalence persist in subpopulations. Ongoing prevention of HBV transmission is needed to meet HBV elimination targets by 2030.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

PROSPERO (CRD42021284217).

Comparison of drugs for active eosinophilic oesophagitis: systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

There is currently no recommendation regarding preferred drugs for active eosinophilic oesophagitis (EoE) because their relative efficacy is unclear. We conducted an up-to-date network meta-analysis to compare proton pump inhibitors, off-label and EoE-specific topical steroids, and biologics in EoE.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Embase Classic and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from inception to June 2023. We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing efficacy of all drugs versus each other, or placebo, in adults and adolescents with active EoE. Results were reported as pooled relative risks with 95% CIs to summarise effect of each comparison tested, with drugs ranked according to P score RESULTS: Seventeen RCTs were eligible for systematic review. Of these, 15 studies containing 1813 subjects with EoE reported extractable data for the network meta-analysis. For histological remission defined as ≤6 eosinophils/high-power field (HPF), lirentelimab 1 mg/kg monthly ranked first. For histological remission defined as ≤15 eosinophils/HPF, budesonide orally disintegrating tablet (BOT) 1 mg two times per day ranked first. For failure to achieve symptom improvement, BOT 1 mg two times per day and budesonide oral suspension (BOS) 2 mg two times per day were significantly more efficacious than placebo. For failure to achieve endoscopic improvement based on the EoE Endoscopic Reference Score, BOT 1 mg two times per day and BOS 1 mg two times per day or 2 mg two times per day were significantly more efficacious than placebo.

CONCLUSIONS

Although this network meta-analysis supports the efficacy of most available drugs over placebo for EoE treatment, significant heterogeneity in eligibility criteria and outcome measures among available trials hampers the establishment of a solid therapeutic hierarchy.

Genetic coding variant in complement factor B (CFB) is associated with increased risk for perianal Crohn's disease and leads to impaired CFB cleavage and phagocytosis

OBJECTIVE

Perianal Crohn's disease (pCD) occurs in up to 40% of patients with CD and is associated with poor quality of life, limited treatment responses and poorly understood aetiology. We performed a genetic association study comparing CD subjects with and without perianal disease and subsequently performed functional follow-up studies for a pCD associated SNP in Complement Factor B (CFB).

DESIGN

Immunochip-based meta-analysis on 4056 pCD and 11 088 patients with CD from three independent cohorts was performed. Serological and clinical variables were analysed by regression analyses. Risk allele of rs4151651 was introduced into human CFB plasmid by site-directed mutagenesis. Binding of recombinant G252 or S252 CFB to C3b and its cleavage was determined in cell-free assays. Macrophage phagocytosis in presence of recombinant CFB or serum from CFB risk, or protective CD or healthy subjects was assessed by flow cytometry.

RESULTS

Perianal complications were associated with colonic involvement, OmpC and ASCA serology, and serology quartile sum score. We identified a genetic association for pCD (rs4151651), a non-synonymous SNP (G252S) in CFB, in all three cohorts. Recombinant S252 CFB had reduced binding to C3b, its cleavage was impaired, and complement-driven phagocytosis and cytokine secretion were reduced compared with G252 CFB. Serine 252 generates a de novo glycosylation site in CFB. Serum from homozygous risk patients displayed significantly decreased macrophage phagocytosis compared with non-risk serum.

CONCLUSION

pCD-associated rs4151651 in CFB is a loss-of-function mutation that impairs its cleavage, activation of alternative complement pathway, and pathogen phagocytosis thus implicating the alternative complement pathway and CFB in pCD aetiology.

Global prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in type 2 diabetes mellitus: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the leading cause of chronic liver disease, with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) as a major predictor. Insulin resistance and chronic inflammation are key pathways in the pathogenesis of T2DM leading to NAFLD and vice versa, with the synergistic effect of NAFLD and T2DM increasing morbidity and mortality risks. This meta-analysis aims to quantify the prevalence of NAFLD and the prevalence of clinically significant and advanced fibrosis in people with T2DM.

METHODS

MEDLINE and Embase databases were searched from inception until 13 February 2023. The primary outcomes were the prevalence of NAFLD, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and fibrosis in people with T2DM. A generalised linear mixed model with Clopper-Pearson intervals was used for the analysis of proportions with sensitivity analysis conducted to explore heterogeneity between studies.

RESULTS

156 studies met the inclusion criteria, and a pooled analysis of 1 832 125 patients determined that the prevalence rates of NAFLD and NASH in T2DM were 65.04% (95% CI 61.79% to 68.15%, I2=99.90%) and 31.55% (95% CI 17.12% to 50.70%, I2=97.70%), respectively. 35.54% (95% CI 19.56% to 55.56%, I2=100.00%) of individuals with T2DM with NAFLD had clinically significant fibrosis (F2-F4), while 14.95% (95% CI 11.03% to 19.95%, I2=99.00%) had advanced fibrosis (F3-F4).

CONCLUSION

This study determined a high prevalence of NAFLD, NASH and fibrosis in people with T2DM. Increased efforts are required to prevent T2DM to combat the rising burden of NAFLD.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022360251.

Exercise therapy for tendinopathy: a mixed-methods evidence synthesis exploring feasibility, acceptability and effectiveness

Background

Tendinopathy is a common, painful and functionally limiting condition, primarily managed conservatively using exercise therapy.

Review questions

(i) What exercise interventions have been reported in the literature for which tendinopathies? (ii) What outcomes have been reported in studies investigating exercise interventions for tendinopathy? (iii) Which exercise interventions are most effective across all tendinopathies? (iv) Does type/location of tendinopathy or other specific covariates affect which are the most effective exercise therapies? (v) How feasible and acceptable are exercise interventions for tendinopathies?

Methods

A scoping review mapped exercise interventions for tendinopathies and outcomes reported to date (questions i and ii). Thereafter, two contingent systematic review workstreams were conducted. The first investigated a large number of studies and was split into three efficacy reviews that quantified and compared efficacy across different interventions (question iii), and investigated the influence of a range of potential moderators (question iv). The second was a convergent segregated mixed-method review (question v). Searches for studies published from 1998 were conducted in library databases (n = 9), trial registries (n = 6), grey literature databases (n = 5) and Google Scholar. Scoping review searches were completed on 28 April 2020 with efficacy and mixed-method search updates conducted on 19 January 2021 and 29 March 2021.

Results

Scoping review - 555 included studies identified a range of exercise interventions and outcomes across a range of tendinopathies, most commonly Achilles, patellar, lateral elbow and rotator cuff-related shoulder pain. Strengthening exercise was most common, with flexibility exercise used primarily in the upper limb. Disability was the most common outcome measured in Achilles, patellar and rotator cuff-related shoulder pain; physical function capacity was most common in lateral elbow tendinopathy. Efficacy reviews - 204 studies provided evidence that exercise therapy is safe and beneficial, and that patients are generally satisfied with treatment outcome and perceive the improvement to be substantial. In the context of generally low and very low-quality evidence, results identified that: (1) the shoulder may benefit more from flexibility (effect sizeResistance:Flexibility = 0.18 [95% CrI 0.07 to 0.29]) and proprioception (effect sizeResistance:Proprioception = 0.16 [95% CrI -1.8 to 0.32]); (2) when performing strengthening exercise it may be most beneficial to combine concentric and eccentric modes (effect sizeEccentricOnly:Concentric+Eccentric = 0.48 [95% CrI -0.13 to 1.1]; and (3) exercise may be most beneficial when combined with another conservative modality (e.g. injection or electro-therapy increasing effect size by ≈0.1 to 0.3). Mixed-method review - 94 studies (11 qualitative) provided evidence that exercise interventions for tendinopathy can largely be considered feasible and acceptable, and that several important factors should be considered when prescribing exercise for tendinopathy, including an awareness of potential barriers to and facilitators of engaging with exercise, patients' and providers' prior experience and beliefs, and the importance of patient education, self-management and the patient-healthcare professional relationship.

Limitations

Despite a large body of literature on exercise for tendinopathy, there are methodological and reporting limitations that influenced the recommendations that could be made.

Conclusion

The findings provide some support for the use of exercise combined with another conservative modality; flexibility and proprioception exercise for the shoulder; and a combination of eccentric and concentric strengthening exercise across tendinopathies. However, the findings must be interpreted within the context of the quality of the available evidence.

Future work

There is an urgent need for high-quality efficacy, effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and qualitative research that is adequately reported, using common terminology, definitions and outcomes.

Study registration

This project is registered as DOI: 10.11124/JBIES-20-00175 (scoping review); PROSPERO CRD 42020168187 (efficacy reviews); https://osf.io/preprints/sportrxiv/y7sk6/ (efficacy review 1); https://osf.io/preprints/sportrxiv/eyxgk/ (efficacy review 2); https://osf.io/preprints/sportrxiv/mx5pv/ (efficacy review 3); PROSPERO CRD42020164641 (mixed-method review).

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) HTA programme and will be published in full in HTA Journal; Vol. 27, No. 24. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Postpartum relapse risk in multiple sclerosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The influence of pregnancy on the course of multiple sclerosis (MS) has long been controversial. While historical evidence suggests a substantial decline in relapse rates during pregnancy followed by a rebound in the postpartum period, more recent work yielded equivocal results. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on data from cohort studies to determine whether women with MS experience increased relapse rates after delivery. A systematic literature search was conducted in the databases MEDLINE and Epistemonikos on the topic 'motherhood choice in MS' in March 2022. We included cohort studies assessing the association between pregnancy and MS relapse activity defined by the annualised relapse rate after 3, 6, 9 and 12 months post partum. Furthermore, information about disease-modifying therapies (DMT) and breast feeding was considered, if available. 5369 publications were identified. Of these, 93 full-text articles on MS relapse activity during the postpartum period were screened. 11 studies including 2739 pregnancies were eligible. Women with MS showed a significantly increased relapse rate in the first 6 months post partum, compared with preconception with the incidence rate ratio (IRR) almost doubled in the first 3 months post partum (1.87, 95% CI 1.40 to 2.50). However, at 10-12 months post partum, the IRR decreased significantly (0.81, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.98). Subanalysis on influencing parameters suggested that preconceptional DMTs (IRR for highly-effective DMTs 2.76, 95% CI 1.34 to 5.69) and exclusive breast feeding (risk ratio 0.39, 95% CI 0.18 to 0.86) significantly influenced postpartum relapse risk. Increased postpartum annualised relapse rate and possible modifiers should be considered in counselling women with MS who are considering pregnancy.

Self-sampling strategies (with/without digital innovations) in populations at risk of Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae: a systematic review and meta-analyses

BACKGROUND

Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (GC) resulted in over 200 million new sexually transmitted infections last year. Self-sampling strategies alone or combined with digital innovations (ie, online, mobile or computing technologies supporting self-sampling) could improve screening methods. Evidence on all outcomes has not yet been synthesised, so we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to address this limitation.

METHODS

We searched three databases (period: 1 January 2000-6 January 2023) for reports on self-sampling for CT/GC testing. Outcomes considered for inclusion were: accuracy, feasibility, patient-centred and impact (ie, changes in linkage to care, first-time testers, uptake, turnaround time or referrals attributable to self-sampling).We used bivariate regression models to meta-analyse accuracy measures from self-sampled CT/GC tests and obtain pooled sensitivity/specificity estimates. We assessed quality with Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool-2, Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool.

RESULTS

We summarised results from 45 studies reporting self-sampling alone (73.3%; 33 of 45) or combined with digital innovations (26.7%; 12 of 45) conducted in 10 high-income (HICs; n=34) and 8 low/middle-income countries (LMICs; n=11). 95.6% (43 of 45) were observational, while 4.4% (2 of 45) were randomised clinical trials.We noted that pooled sensitivity (n=13) for CT/GC was higher in extragenital self-sampling (>91.6% (86.0%-95.1%)) than in vaginal self-sampling (79.6% (62.1%-90.3%)), while pooled specificity remained high (>99.0% (98.2%-99.5%)).Participants found self-sampling highly acceptable (80.0%-100.0%; n=24), but preference varied (23.1%-83.0%; n=16).Self-sampling reached 51.0%-70.0% (n=3) of first-time testers and resulted in 89.0%-100.0% (n=3) linkages to care. Digital innovations led to 65.0%-92% engagement and 43.8%-57.1% kit return rates (n=3).Quality of studies varied.

DISCUSSION

Self-sampling had mixed sensitivity, reached first-time testers and was accepted with high linkages to care. We recommend self-sampling for CT/GC in HICs but additional evaluations in LMICs. Digital innovations impacted engagement and may reduce disease burden in hard-to-reach populations.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021262950.

Vagus nerve stimulation paired with rehabilitation for motor function, mental health and activities of daily living after stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) plus rehabilitation (Rehab) has shown a potential effect on recovery with a stroke. We systematically synthesised studies examining VNS+Rehab for improving motor function, mental health and activities of daily living (ADL) postintervention and at the end of follow-up in patients with a stroke.

METHODS

The search was performed in electronic databases EMBASE, Medline, EBSCO, Cochrane Library, PubMed, PsycINFO, CINAHL, CNKI, and WANFANG and three clinical trial registries from inception to February 2022. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) applied VNS+Rehab in stroke were included.

RESULTS

Seven RCTs involving 263 (analysed) participants was included. The effect size of VNS+Rehab over Rehab for motor function was medium postintervention (g=0.432; 95% CI 0.186 to 0.678) and large at the end of follow-up (g=0.840; 95% CI 0.288 to 1.392). No difference was found in the effect of VNS+Rehab over traditional rehabilitation for ADL, mental health or safety outcomes. Subgroup analyses revealed larger effects for patients received taVNS (transcutaneous auricular VNS) devices (at acute/subacute phase of stroke, with lower VNS stimulation frequency or pluses per session, greater VNS on-off time or sessions, higher VNS intervention weekly frequency).

CONCLUSION

The results suggest VNS+Rehab showed better motor function outcomes in patients after stroke, while no better than Rehab on mental health or ADL. Combinations of phase of stroke, specific parameters of VNS and VNS intervention frequency are key modulators of VNS effects.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022310194.

Effectiveness of social prescribing for chronic disease prevention in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Social prescribing (SP) enables healthcare professionals to link patients with non-medical interventions available in the community to address underlying socioeconomic and behavioural determinants. We synthesised the evidence to understand the effectiveness of SP for chronic disease prevention.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted using five databases and two registries. Eligible studies included randomised controlled trials of SP among community-dwelling adults recruited from primary care or community setting, investigating any chronic disease risk factors defined by the WHO (behavioural factors: smoking, physical inactivity, unhealthy diet and excessive alcohol consumption; metabolic factors: raised blood pressure, overweight/obesity, hyperlipidaemia and hyperglycaemia). Random effect meta-analyses were performed at two time points: completion of intervention and follow-up after trial.

RESULTS

We identified nine reports from eight trials totalling 4621 participants. All studies evaluated SP exercise interventions which were highly heterogeneous regarding the content, duration, frequency and length of follow-up. Majority of studies had some concerns for risk of bias. Meta-analysis revealed that SP likely increased physical activity (completion: mean difference (MD) 21 min/week, 95% CI 3 to 39, I²=0%; follow-up ≤12 months: MD 19 min/week, 95% CI 8 to 29, I²=0%). However, SP may not improve markers of adiposity, blood pressure, glucose and serum lipid. There were no eligible studies that primarily target unhealthy diet, smoking and excessive alcohol drinking behaviours.

CONCLUSIONS

SP exercise interventions probably increased physical activity slightly; however, no benefits were observed for metabolic factors. Determining whether SP is effective in modifying the determinants of chronic diseases and promotes sustainable healthy behaviours is limited by the current evidence of quantification and uncertainty, warranting further rigorous studies.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022346687.

STN-DBS electrode placement accuracy and motor improvement in Parkinson's disease: systematic review and individual patient meta-analysis

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) is an effective neurosurgical treatment for Parkinson's disease. Surgical accuracy is a critical determinant to achieve an adequate DBS effect on motor performance. A two-millimetre surgical accuracy is commonly accepted, but scientific evidence is lacking. A systematic review and meta-analysis of study-level and individual patient data (IPD) was performed by a comprehensive search in MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Library. Primary outcome measures were (1) radial error between the implanted electrode and target; (2) DBS motor improvement on the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale part III (motor examination). On a study level, meta-regression analysis was performed. Also, publication bias was assessed. For IPD meta-analysis, a linear mixed effects model was used. Forty studies (1391 patients) were included, reporting radial errors of 0.45-1.86 mm. Errors within this range did not significantly influence the DBS effect on motor improvement. Additional IPD analysis (206 patients) revealed that a mean radial error of 1.13±0.75 mm did not significantly change the extent of DBS motor improvement. Our meta-analysis showed a huge publication bias on accuracy data in DBS. Therefore, the current literature does not provide an unequivocal upper threshold for acceptable accuracy of STN-DBS surgery. Based on the current literature, DBS-electrodes placed within a 2 mm range of the intended target do not have to be repositioned to enhance motor improvement after STN-DBS for Parkinson's disease. However, an indisputable upper cut-off value for surgical accuracy remains to be established. PROSPERO registration number is CRD42018089539.

Efficacy and safety of rituximab in myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disorders compared with neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Rituximab (RTX) efficacy in patients with myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG) antibody-associated disorders (MOGADs) is still poorly understood, though it appears to be lower than in aquaporin-4-IgG-positive neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (AQP4-IgG+NMOSDs). The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to assess the efficacy and safety profile of RTX in patients with MOGAD and to compare RTX efficacy between MOGAD and AQP4-IgG+NMOSD.

METHODS

We searched original English-language articles published between 2012 and 2021 in MEDLINE, Cochrane, Central Register of Controlled Trials and clinicaltrials.gov, reporting data on RTX efficacy in patients with MOGAD. The main outcome measures were annualised relapse rate (ARR) and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score mean differences (MDs) after RTX. The meta-analysis was performed with a random effects model. Covariates associated with the outcome measures were analysed with a linear meta-regression.

RESULTS

The systematic review included 315 patients (138 women, mean onset age 26.8 years) from 32 studies. Nineteen studies (282 patients) were included in the meta-analysis. After RTX, a significant decrease of ARR was found (MD: -0.92, 95% CI -1.24 to -0.60, p<0.001), markedly different from the AQP4-IgG+NMOSD (MD: -1.73 vs MOGAD -0.92, subgroup difference testing: Q=9.09, p=0.002). However, when controlling for the mean ARR pre-RTX, this difference was not significant. After RTX, the EDSS score decreased significantly (MD: -0.84, 95% CI -1.41 to -0.26, p=0.004). The frequency of RTX-related adverse events was 18.8% (36/192) and overall RTX-related mortality 0.5% (1/192).

CONCLUSIONS

RTX showed effective in MOGAD, although to a lesser extent than in AQP4-IgG+NMOSD, while the safety profile warrants some caution in its prescription. Randomised-controlled trials are needed to confirm these findings and provide robust evidence to improve treatment strategies in patients with MOGAD.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020175439.

Bone Mineral Density Is Inversely Associated With Mortality in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients: A Meta-Analysis

Low bone mineral density (BMD) is suggested to be associated with increased mortality in the general health population, but the relationship in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients is still unclear. We performed a meta-analysis to investigate the association of BMD in different sites with risk of all-cause mortality in CKD patients. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science to identify eligible cohort studies that evaluated the association between BMD at different sites and risk of all-cause mortality in CKD patients. Twelve cohort studies were identified, which included 2828 CKD patients and 1052 deaths. Compared with normal/high level of total body BMD, lower total body BMD was associated with 25% higher risk of all-cause mortality. The pooled relative risk (RR) was 1.25 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09, 1.42) with little heterogeneity across studies. Regarding BMD measured at different sites, the risk of all-cause mortality was highest for lower BMD at hip/femoral neck (pooled RR = 1.69; 95% CI 1.20, 2.40). The pooled RRs were 1.26 (95% CI 1.04, 1.53) and 1.17 (95% CI 1.00, 1.37) for lower BMD at arm and spine, respectively. Similarly, the risk of death for per SD decrease in BMD was also higher at hip/femoral neck (pooled RR = 1.43, 95% CI 1.15, 1.77) compared with arm (pooled RR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.00, 1.06) and spine (pooled RR = 1.17, 95% CI 0.98, 1.39). In conclusion, lower BMD values at hip, arm, spine, as well as the whole body are associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in CKD patients. The excess risk is highest for patients with lower BMD at hip/femoral neck, suggesting BMD measured at hip region may be the best indicator of mortality risk in CKD patients. © 2022 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Does persistent precarious employment affect health outcomes among working age adults? A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of persistent precarious employment (lasting 12+ months) on the health of working age adults, compared with more stable employment. Persistent precarity reflects a shift towards less secure forms of employment and may be particularly important for health.

METHODS

Nine databases were systematically searched to identify quantitative studies that assessed the relationship between persistent precarious employment and health outcomes. Risk of bias (RoB) was assessed using an adaptation of the Effective Public Health Practice Project tool. Narrative synthesis and random effects meta-analysis were conducted. Certainty of evidence was assessed using the Grades of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach.

RESULTS

Of 12 940 records screened, 50 studies met the inclusion criteria and 29 were included in meta-analyses. RoB was generally high (n=18). The most reported outcome domain was mental health; with evidence also reported relating to general health, physical health,and health behaviours. Of GRADE assessed outcomes, persistent precarious employment was associated with increased risk of poor self-rated health (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.14, I2=80%) and mental health symptoms (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.70, I2=65%). The association with all-cause mortality was imprecisely estimated (OR 1.10, 5% CI 0.91 to 1.33, I2=73%). There was very low GRADE certainty across all outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Persistent precarious employment is associated with poorer health, particularly for outcomes with short time lags, though associations are small and causality is highly uncertain. Further research using more robust methods is needed but given potential health harms of persistent precarious employment, exploration of precautionary labour regulations and employment policies is warranted.

Multiple sclerosis disease-modifying therapies and COVID-19 vaccines: a practical review and meta-analysis

Studies among people with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) receiving disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) have provided adequate evidence for an appraisal of COVID-19 vaccination policies among them. To synthesise the available evidence addressing the effect of MS DMTs on COVID-19 vaccines' immunogenicity and effectiveness, following the Cochrane guidelines, we systematically reviewed all observational studies available in MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science, MedRxiv and Google Scholar from January 2021 to January 2022 and extracted their relevant data. Immunogenicity data were then synthesised in a quantitative, and other data in a qualitative manner. Evidence from 28 studies suggests extensively lower B-cell responses in sphingosine-1-phosphate receptor modulator (S1PRM) treated and anti-CD20 (aCD20) treated, and lower T-cell responses in interferon-treated, S1PRM-treated and cladribine-treated pwMS-although most T cell evidence currently comprises of low or very low certainty. With every 10-week increase in aCD20-to-vaccine period, a 1.94-fold (95% CI 1.57 to 2.41, p<0.00001) increase in the odds of seroconversion was observed. Furthermore, the evidence points out that B-cell-depleting therapies may accelerate postvaccination humoral waning, and boosters' immunogenicity is predictable with the same factors affecting the initial vaccination cycle. Four real-world studies further indicate that the comparative incidence/severity of breakthrough COVID-19 has been higher among the pwMS treated with S1PRM and aCD20-unlike the ones treated with other DMTs. S1PRM and aCD20 therapies were the only DMTs reducing the real-world effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination among pwMS. Hence, it could be concluded that optimisation of humoral immunogenicity and ensuring its durability are the necessities of an effective COVID-19 vaccination policy among pwMS who receive DMTs.

Endometrial scratch to increase live birth rates in women undergoing first-time in vitro fertilisation: RCT and systematic review

BACKGROUND

In vitro fertilisation is a widely used reproductive technique that can be undertaken with or without intracytoplasmic sperm injection. The endometrial scratch procedure is an in vitro fertilisation 'add-on' that is sometimes provided prior to the first in vitro fertilisation cycle, but there is a lack of evidence to support its use.

OBJECTIVES

(1) To assess the clinical effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness of endometrial scratch compared with treatment as usual in women undergoing their first in vitro fertilisation cycle (the 'Endometrial Scratch Trial') and (2) to undertake a systematic review to combine the results of the Endometrial Scratch Trial with those of previous trials in which endometrial scratch was provided prior to the first in vitro fertilisation cycle.

DESIGN

A pragmatic, multicentre, superiority, open-label, parallel-group, individually randomised controlled trial. Participants were randomised (1 : 1) via a web-based system to receive endometrial scratch or treatment as usual using stratified block randomisation. The systematic review involved searching electronic databases (undertaken in January 2020) and clinicaltrials.gov (undertaken in September 2020) for relevant trials.

SETTING

Sixteen UK fertility units.

PARTICIPANTS

Women aged 18-37 years, inclusive, undergoing their first in vitro fertilisation cycle. The exclusion criteria included severe endometriosis, body mass index ≥ 35 kg/m² and previous trauma to the endometrium.

INTERVENTIONS

Endometrial scratch was undertaken in the mid-luteal phase of the menstrual cycle prior to in vitro fertilisation, and involved inserting a pipelle into the cavity of the uterus and rotating and withdrawing it three or four times. The endometrial scratch group then received usual in vitro fertilisation treatment. The treatment-as-usual group received usual in vitro fertilisation only.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was live birth after completion of 24 weeks' gestation within 10.5 months of egg collection. Secondary outcomes included implantation, pregnancy, ectopic pregnancy, miscarriage, pain and tolerability of the procedure, adverse events and treatment costs.

RESULTS

One thousand and forty-eight (30.3%) women were randomised to treatment as usual (n = 525) or endometrial scratch (n = 523) and were followed up between July 2016 and October 2019 and included in the intention-to-treat analysis. In the endometrial scratch group, 453 (86.6%) women received the endometrial scratch procedure. A total of 494 (94.1%) women in the treatment-as-usual group and 497 (95.0%) women in the endometrial scratch group underwent in vitro fertilisation. The live birth rate was 37.1% (195/525) in the treatment-as-usual group and 38.6% (202/523) in the endometrial scratch group: an unadjusted absolute difference of 1.5% (95% confidence interval -4.4% to 7.4%; p = 0.621). There were no statistically significant differences in secondary outcomes. Safety events were comparable across groups. No neonatal deaths were recorded. The cost per successful live birth was £11.90 per woman (95% confidence interval -£134 to £127). The pooled results of this trial and of eight similar trials found no evidence of a significant effect of endometrial scratch in increasing live birth rate (odds ratio 1.03, 95% confidence interval 0.87 to 1.22).

LIMITATIONS

A sham endometrial scratch procedure was not undertaken, but it is unlikely that doing so would have influenced the results, as objective fertility outcomes were used. A total of 9.2% of women randomised to receive endometrial scratch did not undergo the procedure, which may have slightly diluted the treatment effect.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no evidence to support the theory that performing endometrial scratch in the mid-luteal phase in women undergoing their first in vitro fertilisation cycle significantly improves live birth rate, although the procedure was well tolerated and safe. We recommend that endometrial scratch is not undertaken in this population.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This trial is registered as ISRCTN23800982.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 10. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Coenzyme Q10 to manage chronic heart failure with a reduced ejection fraction: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Chronic heart failure is a debilitating condition that accounts for an annual NHS spend of £2.3B. Low levels of endogenous coenzyme Q10 may exacerbate chronic heart failure. Coenzyme Q10 supplements might improve symptoms and slow progression. As statins are thought to block the production of coenzyme Q10, supplementation might be particularly beneficial for patients taking statins.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of coenzyme Q10 in managing chronic heart failure with a reduced ejection fraction.

METHODS

A systematic review that included randomised trials comparing coenzyme Q10 plus standard care with standard care alone in chronic heart failure. Trials restricted to chronic heart failure with a preserved ejection fraction were excluded. Databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL were searched up to March 2020. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool (version 5.2). A planned individual participant data meta-analysis was not possible and meta-analyses were mostly based on aggregate data from publications. Potential effect modification was examined using meta-regression. A Markov model used treatment effects from the meta-analysis and baseline mortality and hospitalisation from an observational UK cohort. Costs were evaluated from an NHS and Personal Social Services perspective and expressed in Great British pounds at a 2019/20 price base. Outcomes were expressed in quality-adjusted life-years. Both costs and outcomes were discounted at a 3.5% annual rate.

RESULTS

A total of 26 trials, comprising 2250 participants, were included in the systematic review. Many trials were reported poorly and were rated as having a high or unclear risk of bias in at least one domain. Meta-analysis suggested a possible benefit of coenzyme Q10 on all-cause mortality (seven trials, 1371 participants; relative risk 0.68, 95% confidence interval 0.45 to 1.03). The results for short-term functional outcomes were more modest or unclear. There was no indication of increased adverse events with coenzyme Q10. Meta-regression found no evidence of treatment interaction with statins. The base-case cost-effectiveness analysis produced incremental costs of £4878, incremental quality-adjusted life-years of 1.34 and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £3650. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that at thresholds of £20,000 and £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year coenzyme Q10 had a high probability (95.2% and 95.8%, respectively) of being more cost-effective than standard care alone. Scenario analyses in which the population and other model assumptions were varied all found coenzyme Q10 to be cost-effective. The expected value of perfect information suggested that a new trial could be valuable.

LIMITATIONS

For most outcomes, data were available from few trials and different trials contributed to different outcomes. There were concerns about risk of bias and whether or not the results from included trials were applicable to a typical UK population. A lack of individual participant data meant that planned detailed analyses of effect modifiers were not possible.

CONCLUSIONS

Available evidence suggested that, if prescribed, coenzyme Q10 has the potential to be clinically effective and cost-effective for heart failure with a reduced ejection fraction. However, given important concerns about risk of bias, plausibility of effect sizes and applicability of the evidence base, establishing whether or not coenzyme Q10 is genuinely effective in a typical UK population is important, particularly as coenzyme Q10 has not been subject to the scrutiny of drug-licensing processes. Stronger evidence is needed before considering its prescription in the NHS.

FUTURE WORK

A new independent, well-designed clinical trial of coenzyme Q10 in a typical UK heart failure with a reduced ejection fraction population may be warranted.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018106189.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 4. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Best Performance Parameters of HR-pQCT to Predict Fragility Fracture: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Osteoporosis is a systemic skeletal disease characterized by low bone mass and bone structural deterioration that may result in fragility fractures. Use of bone imaging modalities to accurately predict fragility fractures is always an important issue, yet the current gold standard of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) for diagnosis of osteoporosis cannot fully satisfy this purpose. The latest high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) is a three-dimensional (3D) imaging device to measure not only volumetric bone density, but also the bone microarchitecture in a noninvasive manner that may provide a better fracture prediction power. This systematic review and meta-analysis was designed to investigate which HR-pQCT parameters at the distal radius and/or distal tibia could best predict fragility fractures. A systematic literature search was conducted in Embase, PubMed, and Web of Science with relevant keywords by two independent reviewers. Original clinical studies using HR-pQCT to predict fragility fractures with available full text in English were included. Information was extracted from the included studies for further review. In total, 25 articles were included for the systematic review, and 16 articles for meta-analysis. HR-pQCT was shown to significantly predict incident fractures and/or major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs). Of all the HR-pQCT parameters, our meta-analysis revealed that cortical volumetric bone mineral density (Ct.vBMD), trabecular thickness (Tb.Th), and stiffness were better predictors. Meanwhile, HR-pQCT parameters indicated better performance in predicting MOFs than incident fractures. Between the two standard measurement sites of HR-pQCT, the non-weight-bearing distal radius was a more preferable site than distal tibia for fracture prediction. Furthermore, most of the included studies were white-based, whereas very few studies were from Asia or South America. These regions should build up their densitometric databases and conduct related prediction studies. It is expected that HR-pQCT can be used widely for the diagnosis of osteoporosis and prediction of future fragility fractures. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Non-invasive imaging software to assess the functional significance of coronary stenoses: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

QAngio^® XA 3D/QFR^® (three-dimensional/quantitative flow ratio) imaging software (Medis Medical Imaging Systems BV, Leiden, the Netherlands) and CAAS^® vFFR^® (vessel fractional flow reserve) imaging software (Pie Medical Imaging BV, Maastricht, the Netherlands) are non-invasive technologies to assess the functional significance of coronary stenoses, which can be alternatives to invasive fractional flow reserve assessment.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of QAngio XA 3D/QFR and CAAS vFFR.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review of all evidence on QAngio XA 3D/QFR and CAAS vFFR, including diagnostic accuracy, clinical effectiveness, implementation and economic analyses. We searched MEDLINE and other databases to January 2020 for studies where either technology was used and compared with fractional flow reserve in patients with intermediate stenosis. The risk of bias was assessed with quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies. Meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy were performed. Clinical and implementation outcomes were synthesised narratively. A simulation study investigated the clinical impact of using QAngio XA 3D/QFR. We developed a de novo decision-analytic model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of QAngio XA 3D/QFR and CAAS vFFR relative to invasive fractional flow reserve or invasive coronary angiography alone. Scenario analyses were undertaken to explore the robustness of the results to variation in the sources of data used to populate the model and alternative assumptions.

RESULTS

Thirty-nine studies (5440 patients) of QAngio XA 3D/QFR and three studies (500 patients) of CAAS vFFR were included. QAngio XA 3D/QFR had good diagnostic accuracy to predict functionally significant fractional flow reserve (≤ 0.80 cut-off point); contrast-flow quantitative flow ratio had a sensitivity of 85% (95% confidence interval 78% to 90%) and a specificity of 91% (95% confidence interval 85% to 95%). A total of 95% of quantitative flow ratio measurements were within 0.14 of the fractional flow reserve. Data on the diagnostic accuracy of CAAS vFFR were limited and a full meta-analysis was not feasible. There were very few data on clinical and implementation outcomes. The simulation found that quantitative flow ratio slightly increased the revascularisation rate when compared with fractional flow reserve, from 40.2% to 42.0%. Quantitative flow ratio and fractional flow reserve resulted in similar numbers of subsequent coronary events. The base-case cost-effectiveness results showed that the test strategy with the highest net benefit was invasive coronary angiography with confirmatory fractional flow reserve. The next best strategies were QAngio XA 3D/QFR and CAAS vFFR (without fractional flow reserve). However, the difference in net benefit between this best strategy and the next best was small, ranging from 0.007 to 0.012 quality-adjusted life-years (or equivalently £140-240) per patient diagnosed at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year.

LIMITATIONS

Diagnostic accuracy evidence on CAAS vFFR, and evidence on the clinical impact of QAngio XA 3D/QFR, were limited.

CONCLUSIONS

Quantitative flow ratio as measured by QAngio XA 3D/QFR has good agreement and diagnostic accuracy compared with fractional flow reserve and is preferable to standard invasive coronary angiography alone. It appears to have very similar cost-effectiveness to fractional flow reserve and, therefore, pending further evidence on general clinical benefits and specific subgroups, could be a reasonable alternative. The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of CAAS vFFR are uncertain. Randomised controlled trial evidence evaluating the effect of quantitative flow ratio on clinical and patient-centred outcomes is needed.

FUTURE WORK

Studies are required to assess the diagnostic accuracy and clinical feasibility of CAAS vFFR. Large ongoing randomised trials will hopefully inform the clinical value of QAngio XA 3D/QFR.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019154575.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 56. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Prognostic biomarkers to identify patients likely to develop severe Crohn's disease: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Identification of biomarkers that predict severe Crohn's disease is an urgent unmet research need, but existing research is piecemeal and haphazard.

OBJECTIVE

To identify biomarkers that are potentially able to predict the development of subsequent severe Crohn's disease.

DESIGN

This was a prognostic systematic review with meta-analysis reserved for those potential predictors with sufficient existing research (defined as five or more primary studies).

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and EMBASE searched from inception to 1 January 2016, updated to 1 January 2018.

REVIEW METHODS

Eligible studies were studies that compared biomarkers in patients who did or did not subsequently develop severe Crohn's disease. We excluded biomarkers that had insufficient research evidence. A clinician and two statisticians independently extracted data relating to predictors, severe disease definitions, event numbers and outcomes, including odds/hazard ratios. We assessed risk of bias. We searched for associations with subsequent severe disease rather than precise estimates of strength. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed separately for odds ratios.

RESULTS

In total, 29,950 abstracts yielded just 71 individual studies, reporting 56 non-overlapping cohorts. Five clinical biomarkers (Montreal behaviour, age, disease duration, disease location and smoking), two serological biomarkers (anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies and anti-flagellin antibodies) and one genetic biomarker (nucleotide-binding oligomerisation domain-containing protein 2) displayed statistically significant prognostic potential. Overall, the strongest association with subsequent severe disease was identified for Montreal B2 and B3 categories (odds ratio 4.09 and 6.25, respectively).

LIMITATIONS

Definitions of severe disease varied widely, and some studies confounded diagnosis and prognosis. Risk of bias was rated as 'high' in 92% of studies overall. Some biomarkers that are used regularly in daily practice, for example C-reactive protein, were studied too infrequently for meta-analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Research for individual biomarkers to predict severe Crohn's disease is scant, heterogeneous and at a high risk of bias. Despite a large amount of potential research, we encountered relatively few biomarkers with data sufficient for meta-analysis, identifying only eight biomarkers with potential predictive capability.

FUTURE WORK

We will use existing data sets to develop and then validate a predictive model based on the potential predictors identified by this systematic review. Contingent on the outcome of that research, a prospective external validation may prove clinically desirable.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016029363.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 45. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

A Meta-Analysis of the Transferability of Bone Mineral Density Genetic Loci Associations From European to African Ancestry Populations

Genetic studies of bone mineral density (BMD) largely have been conducted in European populations. We therefore conducted a meta-analysis of six independent African ancestry cohorts to determine whether previously reported BMD loci identified in European populations were transferable to African ancestry populations. We included nearly 5000 individuals with both genetic data and assessments of BMD. Genotype imputation was conducted using the 1000G reference panel. We assessed single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations with femoral neck and lumbar spine BMD in each cohort separately, then combined results in fixed effects (or random effects if study heterogeneity was high, I2 index >60) inverse variance weighted meta-analyses. In secondary analyses, we conducted locus-based analyses of rare variants using SKAT-O. Mean age ranged from 12 to 68 years. One cohort included only men and another cohort included only women; the proportion of women in the other four cohorts ranged from 52% to 63%. Of 56 BMD loci tested, one locus, 6q25 (C6orf97, p = 8.87 × 10-4 ), was associated with lumbar spine BMD and two loci, 7q21 (SLC25A13, p = 2.84 × 10-4 ) and 7q31 (WNT16, p = 2.96 × 10-5 ), were associated with femoral neck BMD. Effects were in the same direction as previously reported in European ancestry studies and met a Bonferroni-adjusted p value threshold, the criteria for transferability to African ancestry populations. We also found associations that met locus-specific Bonferroni-adjusted p value thresholds in 11q13 (LRP5, p < 2.23 × 10-4 ), 11q14 (DCDC5, p < 5.35 × 10-5 ), and 17p13 (SMG6, p < 6.78 × 10-5 ) that were not tagged by European ancestry index SNPs. Rare single-nucleotide variants in AKAP11 (p = 2.32 × 10-2 ), MBL2 (p = 4.09 × 10-2 ), MEPE (p = 3.15 × 10-2 ), SLC25A13 (p = 3.03 × 10-2 ), STARD3NL (p = 3.35 × 10-2 ), and TNFRSF11A (p = 3.18 × 10-3 ) were also associated with BMD. The majority of known BMD loci were not transferable. Larger genetic studies of BMD in African ancestry populations will be needed to overcome limitations in statistical power and to identify both other loci that are transferable across populations and novel population-specific variants. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation for chronic heart failure: the EXTRAMATCH II individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Current national and international guidelines on the management of heart failure (HF) recommend exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation (ExCR), but do not differentiate this recommendation according to patient subgroups.

OBJECTIVES

(1) To obtain definitive estimates of the impact of ExCR interventions compared with no exercise intervention (control) on mortality, hospitalisation, exercise capacity and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in HF patients; (2) to determine the differential (subgroup) effects of ExCR in HF patients according to their age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction, HF aetiology, New York Heart Association class and baseline exercise capacity; and (3) to assess whether or not the change in exercise capacity mediates for the impact of the ExCR on final outcomes (mortality, hospitalisation and HRQoL), and determine if this is an acceptable surrogate end point.

DESIGN

This was an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis.

SETTING

An international literature review.

PARTICIPANTS

HF patients in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of ExCR.

INTERVENTIONS

ExCR for at least 3 weeks compared with a no-exercise control, with 6 months' follow-up.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

All-cause and HF-specific mortality, all-cause and HF-specific hospitalisation, exercise capacity and HRQoL.

DATA SOURCES

IPD from eligible RCTs.

REVIEW METHODS

RCTs from the Exercise Training Meta-Analysis of Trials for Chronic Heart Failure (ExTraMATCH/ExTraMATCH II) IPD meta-analysis and a 2014 Cochrane systematic review of ExCR (Taylor RS, Sagar VA, Davies EJ, Briscoe S, Coats AJ, Dalal H, et al. Exercise-based rehabilitation for heart failure. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2014;4:CD003331).

RESULTS

Out of the 23 eligible RCTs (4398 patients), 19 RCTs (3990 patients) contributed data to this IPD meta-analysis. There was a wide variation in exercise programme prescriptions across included studies. Compared with control, there was no statistically significant difference in pooled time-to-event estimates in favour of ExCR, although confidence intervals (CIs) were wide: all-cause mortality had a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.83 (95% CI 0.67 to 1.04); HF-related mortality had a HR of 0.84 (95% CI 0.49 to 1.46); all-cause hospitalisation had a HR of 0.90 (95% CI 0.76 to 1.06); and HF-related hospitalisation had a HR of 0.98 (95% CI 0.72 to 1.35). There was a statistically significant difference in favour of ExCR for exercise capacity and HRQoL. Compared with the control, improvements were seen in the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) (mean 21.0 m, 95% CI 1.57 to 40.4 m) and Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire score (mean -5.94, 95% CI -1.0 to -10.9; lower scores indicate improved HRQoL) at 12 months' follow-up. No strong evidence for differential intervention effects across patient characteristics was found for any outcomes. Moderate to good levels of correlation (R ² _trial > 50% and p > 0.50) between peak oxygen uptake (VO₂peak) or the 6MWT with mortality and HRQoL were seen. The estimated surrogate threshold effect was an increase of 1.6 to 4.6 ml/kg/minute for VO₂peak.

LIMITATIONS

There was a lack of consistency in how included RCTs defined and collected the outcomes: it was not possible to obtain IPD from all includable trials for all outcomes and patient-level data on exercise adherence was not sought.

CONCLUSIONS

In comparison with the no-exercise control, participation in ExCR improved the exercise and HRQoL in HF patients, but appeared to have no effect on their mortality or hospitalisation. No strong evidence was found of differential intervention effects of ExCR across patient characteristics. VO₂peak and 6MWT may be suitable surrogate end points for the treatment effect of ExCR on mortality and HRQoL in HF. Future studies should aim to achieve a consensus on the definition of outcomes and promote reporting of a core set of HF data. The research team also seeks to extend current policies to encourage study authors to allow access to RCT data for the purpose of meta-analysis.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014007170.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Interventions to improve the mental health of children and young people with long-term physical conditions: linked evidence syntheses

BACKGROUND

Although mental health difficulties can severely complicate the lives of children and young people (CYP) with long-term physical conditions (LTCs), there is a lack of evidence about the effectiveness of interventions to treat them.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions aiming to improve the mental health of CYP with LTCs (review 1) and explore the factors that may enhance or limit their delivery (review 2).

DATA SOURCES

For review 1, 13 electronic databases were searched, including MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) and Science Citation Index. For review 2, MEDLINE, PsycINFO and CINAHL were searched. Supplementary searches, author contact and grey literature searches were also conducted.

REVIEW METHODS

The first systematic review sought randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and economic evaluations of interventions to improve elevated symptoms of mental ill health in CYP with LTCs. Effect sizes for each outcome were calculated post intervention (Cohen's d). When appropriate, random-effects meta-analyses produced pooled effect sizes (d). Review 2 located primary qualitative studies exploring experiences of CYP with LTCs, their families and/or practitioners, regarding interventions aiming to improve the mental health and well-being of CYP with LTCs. Synthesis followed the principles of metaethnography. An overarching synthesis integrated the findings from review 1 and review 2 using a deductive approach. End-user involvement, including topic experts and CYP with LTCs and their parents, was a feature throughout the project.

RESULTS

Review 1 synthesised 25 RCTs evaluating 11 types of intervention, sampling 12 different LTCs. Tentative evidence from seven studies suggests that cognitive-behavioural therapy interventions could improve the mental health of CYP with certain LTCs. Intervention-LTC dyads were diverse, with few opportunities to meta-analyse. No economic evaluations were located. Review 2 synthesised 57 studies evaluating 21 types of intervention. Most studies were of individuals with cancer, a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection or mixed LTCs. Interventions often aimed to improve broader mental health and well-being, rather than symptoms of mental health disorder. The metaethnography identified five main constructs, described in an explanatory line of argument model of the experience of interventions. Nine overarching synthesis categories emerged from the integrated evidence, raising implications for future research.

LIMITATIONS

Review 1 conclusions were limited by the lack of evidence about intervention effectiveness. No relevant economic evaluations were located. There were no UK studies included in review 1, limiting the applicability of findings. The mental health status of participants in review 2 was usually unknown, limiting comparability with review 1. The different evidence identified by the two systematic reviews challenged the overarching synthesis.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a relatively small amount of comparable evidence for the effectiveness of interventions for the mental health of CYP with LTCs. Qualitative evidence provided insight into the experiences that intervention deliverers and recipients valued. Future research should evaluate potentially effective intervention components in high-quality RCTs integrating process evaluations. End-user involvement enriched the project.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42011001716.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and the NIHR Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care South West Peninsula.

Interventions for adults with a history of complex traumatic events: the INCiTE mixed-methods systematic review

BACKGROUND

People with a history of complex traumatic events typically experience trauma and stressor disorders and additional mental comorbidities. It is not known if existing evidence-based treatments are effective and acceptable for this group of people.

OBJECTIVE

To identify candidate psychological and non-pharmacological treatments for future research.

DESIGN

Mixed-methods systematic review.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults aged ≥ 18 years with a history of complex traumatic events.

INTERVENTIONS

Psychological interventions versus control or active control; pharmacological interventions versus placebo.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms, common mental health problems and attrition.

DATA SOURCES

Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) (1937 onwards); Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (from inception); EMBASE (1974 to 2017 week 16); International Pharmaceutical Abstracts (1970 onwards); MEDLINE and MEDLINE Epub Ahead of Print and In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations (1946 to present); Published International Literature on Traumatic Stress (PILOTS) (1987 onwards); PsycINFO (1806 to April week 2 2017); and Science Citation Index (1900 onwards). Searches were conducted between April and August 2017.

REVIEW METHODS

Eligible studies were singly screened and disagreements were resolved at consensus meetings. The risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool and a bespoke version of a quality appraisal checklist used by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. A meta-analysis was conducted across all populations for each intervention category and for population subgroups. Moderators of effectiveness were assessed using metaregression and a component network meta-analysis. A qualitative synthesis was undertaken to summarise the acceptability of interventions with the relevance of findings assessed by the GRADE-CERQual checklist.

RESULTS

One hundred and four randomised controlled trials and nine non-randomised controlled trials were included. For the qualitative acceptability review, 4324 records were identified and nine studies were included. The population subgroups were veterans, childhood sexual abuse victims, war affected, refugees and domestic violence victims. Psychological interventions were superior to the control post treatment for reducing post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms (standardised mean difference -0.90, 95% confidence interval -1.14 to -0.66; number of trials = 39) and also for associated symptoms of depression, but not anxiety. Trauma-focused therapies were the most effective interventions across all populations for post-traumatic stress disorder and depression. Multicomponent and trauma-focused interventions were effective for negative self-concept. Phase-based approaches were also superior to the control for post-traumatic stress disorder and depression and showed the most benefit for managing emotional dysregulation and interpersonal problems. Only antipsychotic medication was effective for reducing post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms; medications were not effective for mental comorbidities. Eight qualitative studies were included. Interventions were more acceptable if service users could identify benefits and if they were delivered in ways that accommodated their personal and social needs.

LIMITATIONS

Assessments about long-term effectiveness of interventions were not possible. Studies that included outcomes related to comorbid psychiatric states, such as borderline personality disorder, and populations from prisons and humanitarian crises were under-represented.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence-based psychological interventions are effective and acceptable post treatment for reducing post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms and depression and anxiety in people with complex trauma. These interventions were less effective in veterans and had less of an impact on symptoms associated with complex post-traumatic stress disorder.

FUTURE WORK

Definitive trials of phase-based versus non-phase-based interventions with long-term follow-up for post-traumatic stress disorder and associated mental comorbidities.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017055523.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 43. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Surgical treatments for women with stress urinary incontinence: the ESTER systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Urinary incontinence in women is a distressing condition that restricts quality of life and results in a large economic burden to both the NHS and women themselves.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the clinical effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness of surgical treatment for stress urinary incontinence (SUI) in women and explore women's preferences.

DESIGN

An evidence synthesis, a discrete choice experiment (DCE) and an economic decision model, with a value-of-information (VOI) analysis. Nine surgical interventions were compared. Previous Cochrane reviews for each were identified and updated to include additional studies. Systematic review methods were applied. The outcomes of interest were 'cure' and 'improvement'. Both a pairwise and a network meta-analysis (NMA) were conducted for all available surgical comparisons. A DCE was undertaken to assess the preferences of women for treatment outcomes. An economic model assessed the cost-effectiveness of alternative surgeries and a VOI analysis was undertaken.

RESULTS

Data from 175 studies were included in the effectiveness review. The majority of included studies were rated as being at high or unclear risk of bias across all risk-of-bias domains. The NMA, which included 120 studies that reported data on 'cure' or 'improvement', showed that retropubic mid-urethral sling (MUS), transobturator MUS, traditional sling and open colposuspension were more effective than other surgical procedures for both primary outcomes. The results for other interventions were variable. In general, rate of tape and mesh exposure was higher after transobturator MUS than after retropubic MUS or single-incision sling, whereas the rate of tape or mesh erosion/extrusion was similar between transobturator MUS and retropubic MUS. The results of the DCE, in which 789 women completed an anonymous online questionnaire, indicate that women tend to prefer surgical treatments associated with no pain or mild chronic pain and shorter length of hospital stay as well as those treatments that have a smaller risk for urinary symptoms to reoccur after surgery. The cost-effectiveness results suggest that, over a lifetime, retropubic MUS is, on average, the least costly and most effective surgery. However, the high level of uncertainty makes robust estimates difficult to ascertain. The VOI analysis highlighted that further research around the incidence rates of complications would be of most value.

LIMITATIONS

Overall, the quality of the clinical evidence was low, with limited data available for the assessment of complications. Furthermore, there is a lack of robust evidence and significant uncertainty around some parameters in the economic modelling.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the most comprehensive assessment of published evidence for the treatment of SUI. There is some evidence that retropubic MUS, transobturator MUS and traditional sling are effective in the short to medium term and that retropubic MUS is cost-effective in the medium to long term. The VOI analysis highlights the value of further research to reduce the uncertainty around the incidence rates of complications. There is a need to obtain robust clinical data in future work, particularly around long-term complication rates.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016049339.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Meta-Analysis of Genomewide Association Studies Reveals Genetic Variants for Hip Bone Geometry

Hip geometry is an important predictor of fracture. We performed a meta-analysis of GWAS studies in adults to identify genetic variants that are associated with proximal femur geometry phenotypes. We analyzed four phenotypes: (i) femoral neck length; (ii) neck-shaft angle; (iii) femoral neck width, and (iv) femoral neck section modulus, estimated from DXA scans using algorithms of hip structure analysis. In the Discovery stage, 10 cohort studies were included in the fixed-effect meta-analysis, with up to 18,719 men and women ages 16 to 93 years. Association analyses were performed with ∼2.5 million polymorphisms under an additive model adjusted for age, body mass index, and height. Replication analyses of meta-GWAS significant loci (at adjusted genomewide significance [GWS], threshold p ≤ 2.6 × 10^-8 ) were performed in seven additional cohorts in silico. We looked up SNPs associated in our analysis, for association with height, bone mineral density (BMD), and fracture. In meta-analysis (combined Discovery and Replication stages), GWS associations were found at 5p15 (IRX1 and ADAMTS16); 5q35 near FGFR4; at 12p11 (in CCDC91); 11q13 (near LRP5 and PPP6R3 (rs7102273)). Several hip geometry signals overlapped with BMD, including LRP5 (chr. 11). Chr. 11 SNP rs7102273 was associated with any-type fracture (p = 7.5 × 10^-5 ). We used bone transcriptome data and discovered several significant eQTLs, including rs7102273 and PPP6R3 expression (p = 0.0007), and rs6556301 (intergenic, chr.5 near FGFR4) and PDLIM7 expression (p = 0.005). In conclusion, we found associations between several genes and hip geometry measures that explained 12% to 22% of heritability at different sites. The results provide a defined set of genes related to biological pathways relevant to BMD and etiology of bone fragility. © 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Leveraging sequence-based faecal microbial community survey data to identify a composite biomarker for colorectal cancer

OBJECTIVE

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer-associated mortality in the USA. The faecal microbiome may provide non-invasive biomarkers of CRC and indicate transition in the adenoma-carcinoma sequence. Re-analysing raw sequence and metadata from several studies uniformly, we sought to identify a composite and generalisable microbial marker for CRC.

DESIGN

Raw 16S rRNA gene sequence data sets from nine studies were processed with two pipelines, (1) QIIME closed reference (QIIME-CR) or (2) a strain-specific method herein termed SS-UP (Strain Select, UPARSE bioinformatics pipeline). A total of 509 samples (79 colorectal adenoma, 195 CRC and 235 controls) were analysed. Differential abundance, meta-analysis random effects regression and machine learning analyses were carried out to determine the consistency and diagnostic capabilities of potential microbial biomarkers.

RESULTS

Definitive taxa, including Parvimonas micra ATCC 33270, Streptococcus anginosus and yet-to-be-cultured members of Proteobacteria, were frequently and significantly increased in stools from patients with CRC compared with controls across studies and had high discriminatory capacity in diagnostic classification. Microbiome-based CRC versus control classification produced an area under receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve of 76.6% in QIIME-CR and 80.3% in SS-UP. Combining clinical and microbiome markers gave a diagnostic AUROC of 83.3% for QIIME-CR and 91.3% for SS-UP.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite technological differences across studies and methods, key microbial markers emerged as important in classifying CRC cases and such could be used in a universal diagnostic for the disease. The choice of bioinformatics pipeline influenced accuracy of classification. Strain-resolved microbial markers might prove crucial in providing a microbial diagnostic for CRC.

Global prevalence of, and risk factors for, gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms are common in the community, but there has been no definitive systematic review and meta-analysis of data from all studies to estimate their global prevalence, or potential risk factors for them.

DESIGN

Medline, Embase and Embase Classic were searched (until September 2016) to identify population-based studies that reported the prevalence of gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms in adults (≥15 years); gastro-oesophageal reflux was defined using symptom-based criteria or questionnaires. The prevalence was extracted for all studies, and according to the criteria used to define it. Pooled prevalence, according to study location and certain other characteristics, OR and 95% CIs were calculated.

RESULTS

Of the 14 132 citations evaluated, 102 reported the prevalence of gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms in 108 separate study populations, containing 460 984 subjects. Prevalence varied according to country (from 2.5% in China to 51.2% in Greece) and criteria used to define gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms. When only studies using a weekly frequency of heart burn or regurgitation to define presence were considered, pooled prevalence was 13.3% (95% CI 12.0% to 14.6%). Prevalence was higher in subjects ≥50 years (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.54), smokers (OR 1.26; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.52), non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID)/aspirin users (OR 1.44; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.88) and obese individuals (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.46 to 2.06).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms varied strikingly among countries, even when similar definitions were used to define their presence. Prevalence was significantly higher in subjects ≥50 years, smokers, NSAID users and obese individuals, although these associations were modest.

First-line Helicobacter pylori eradication therapies in countries with high and low clarithromycin resistance: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine the optimal regimen of different first-line Helicobacter pylori eradication therapies according to the clarithromycin resistance rate.

DESIGN

Electronic search for articles published between January 2005 and April 2016. Randomised, controlled trials that reported the effectiveness of first-line eradication therapies in treatment-naïve adults were included. Two independent reviewers performed articles screening and data extraction. Network and traditional meta-analyses were conducted using the random effect model. Subgroup analyses were performed to determine the ranking of regimens in countries with high (>15%) and low (<15%) clarithromycin resistance. Data including adverse events and therapeutic cure rate were also extracted and analysed.

RESULTS

117 trials (totally 32 852 patients) for 17 H. pylori eradication regimens were eligible for inclusion. Compared with 7-day clarithromycin-based triple therapy, sequential therapy (ST) for 14 days had the highest effectiveness (OR=3.74, 95% CrI 2.37 to 5.96). ST-14 (OR=6.53, 95% CrI 3.23 to 13.63) and hybrid therapy (HY) for 10 days or more (OR=2.85, 95% CrI 1.58 to 5.37) represented the most effective regimen in areas with high and low clarithromycin resistance, respectively. The effectiveness of standard triple therapy was below therapeutic eradication rate in most of the countries. Longer duration was associated with higher eradication rate, but with a higher risk of events that lead to discontinuation.

CONCLUSIONS

ST and HY appeared to be the most effective therapies in countries with high and low clarithromycin resistance, respectively. The clinical decision for optimal regimen can be supported by referring to the rank ordering of relative efficacies stratified by local eradication rates, antibiotic resistance and safety profile.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42015025445.

Comparison of efficacy of pharmacological treatments for chronic idiopathic constipation: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To compare efficacy of pharmacotherapies for chronic idiopathic constipation (CIC) based on comparisons to placebo using Bayesian network meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

We conducted searches (inception to May 2015) of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus and Cochrane Central, as well as original data from authors or drug companies for the medications used for CIC.

STUDY SELECTION

Phase IIB and phase III randomised, placebo-controlled trials (RCT) of ≥4 weeks' treatment for CIC in adults with Rome II or III criteria for functional constipation; trials included at least one of four end points.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two investigators independently evaluated all full-text articles that met inclusion criteria and extracted data for primary and secondary end points, risk of bias and quality of evidence.

OUTCOMES

Primary end points were ≥3 complete spontaneous bowel movements (CSBM)/week and increase over baseline by ≥1 CSBM/week. Secondary end points were change from baseline (Δ_b) in the number of SBM/week and Δ_b CSBM/week.

RESULTS

Twenty-one RCTs (9189 patients) met inclusion and end point criteria: 9 prucalopride, 3 lubiprostone, 3 linaclotide, 2 tegaserod, 1 each velusetrag, elobixibat, bisacodyl and sodium picosulphate (NaP). All prespecified end points were unavailable in four polyethylene glycol studies. Bisacodyl, NaP, prucalopride and velusetrag were superior to placebo for the ≥3 CSBM/week end point. No drug was superior at improving the primary end points on network meta-analysis. Bisacodyl appeared superior to the other drugs for the secondary end point, Δ_b in number of SBM/week.

CONCLUSIONS

Current drugs for CIC show similar efficacy. Bisacodyl may be superior to prescription medications for Δ_b in the number of SBM/week in CIC.

Cerebellar atrophy in neurodegeneration-a meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

The cerebellum has strong cortical and subcortical connectivity, but is rarely taken into account for clinical diagnosis in many neurodegenerative conditions, particularly in the absence of clinical ataxia. The current meta-analysis aims to assess patterns of cerebellar grey matter atrophy in seven neurodegenerative conditions (Alzheimer's disease (AD), Parkinson's disease (PD) and Huntington's disease (HD), frontotemporal dementia (FTD), amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), multiple system atrophy (MSA), progressive supranuclear palsy (MSP)).

METHODS

We carried out a systematic search in PubMed (any date: 14 July 2016) and a hand search of references from pertinent articles according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The authors were contacted to provide missing coordinate data. Peer-reviewed studies with direct comparison of patient and control groups, and availability of coordinate data of grey matter cerebellar atrophy in patients were included. These coordinates were used in an anatomical likelihood estimation meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Across 54 studies, clusters of cerebellar atrophy were found for AD, ALS, FTD, MSA, and PSP. Atrophy patterns were largely disease-specific, with overlap in certain areas of the cerebellar hemisphere, which showed marked atrophy in AD, ALS, FTD and PSP (Crus I/II), and MSA and PSP (lobules I-IV), respectively. Atrophy colocated with cerebellar areas implicated for motor (PSP, MSA) or cognitive symptoms (FTD, ALS, PSP) in the diseases.

DISCUSSION

Our findings suggest that cerebellar changes are largely disease-specific and correspond to cortical or subcortical changes in neurodegenerative conditions. High clinical variability in PD and HD samples may explain the absence of findings for consistent grey matter loss across studies. Our results have clinical implications for diagnosis and cerebellar neuroimaging referencing approaches.

Rates and correlates of suicidal ideation among stroke survivors: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

A better understanding of the epidemiological impact of suicidal ideation after stroke is required to identify subjects needing personalised interventions.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this meta-analysis was to estimate rates and correlates of suicidal ideation among stroke survivors.

METHODS

We searched via Ovid, Medline, Embase and PsycInfo from database inception until August 2016. Predefined outcomes were (1) rates of suicidal ideation based on random-effects pooled proportion and (2) relevant sociodemographic and clinical correlates, using random-effects odds ratio (OR) or standardised mean difference (SMD) for categorical and continuous variables, respectively.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies and 13 independent samples, accounting for 10 400 subjects, were included in meta-analyses. The pooled proportion of suicidal ideation among stroke survivors was 11.8% (7.4% to 16.2%), with high heterogeneity across studies (I²=97.3%). Current (OR=11.50; p<0.001) and past (OR=6.96; p<0.001) depression, recurrent stroke (OR=1.77; p<0.001), disability (SMD=0.58; p=0.01) and cognitive impairment (SMD=-0.22; p=0.03) were all associated with suicidal ideation. Moreover, suicidal ideation was less likely in stroke survivors who were married (OR=0.63; p<0.001), employed (OR=0.57; p=0.02) and had higher education levels (OR=0.55; p=0.002).

CONCLUSION

Despite some limitations, this meta-analysis shows that about one out of eight stroke survivors has suicidal ideation. Thus, there is enough evidence to support the use of routine screening and early interventions to prevent and treat suicidal ideation after stroke, especially among subjects carrying specific correlates.

Relationship Between Low Bone Mineral Density and Fractures With Incident Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

An increasing evidence base suggests that low bone mineral density (BMD) and fractures are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis summarizing the evidence of low BMD and fractures as risk factors for future CVD. Two independent authors searched major databases from inception to August 1, 2016, for longitudinal studies reporting data on CVD incidence (overall and specific CVD) and BMD status and fractures. The association between low BMD, fractures, and CVD across longitudinal studies was explored by calculating pooled adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) ±95% confidence intervals (CIs) with a random-effects meta-analysis. Twenty-eight studies (18 regarding BMD and 10 fractures) followed a total of 1,107,885 participants for a median of 5 years. Taking those with higher BMD as the reference, people with low BMD were at increased risk of developing CVD during follow-up (11 studies; HR = 1.33; 95%CI, 1.27 to 1.38; I2  = 53%), after adjusting for a median of eight confounders. This finding was confirmed using a decrease in one standard deviation of baseline BMD (9 studies; HR = 1.16; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.24; I2  = 69%). The presence of fractures at baseline was associated with an increased risk of developing CVD (HR = 1.20; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.37; I2  = 91%). Regarding specific CVDs, low BMD was associated with an increased risk of developing coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular conditions, and CVD-associated death. Fractures at baseline was associated with an increased risk of cerebrovascular conditions and death due to CVD. In conclusion, low BMD and fractures are associated with a small, but significant increased risk of CVD risk and possibly death. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

The prognostic value of TP53 mutations in oesophageal adenocarcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To clarify the prognostic role of tumour protein 53 (TP53) mutations in patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) as there is a need for biomarkers that assist in guiding management for patients with OAC.

DESIGN

A systematic review was conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed and Current Contents Connect to identify studies published between January 1990 and February 2015 of oesophageal cancer populations (with OAC diagnoses >50% of cases) that measured tumoural TP53 status and reported hazard ratios (HR), or adequate data for estimation of HR for survival for TP53-defined subgroups. Risk of bias for HR estimates was assessed using prespecified criteria for the appraisal of relevant domains as defined by the Cochrane Prognosis Methods Group including adherence to Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation and REporting recommendations for tumor MARKer prognostic studies guidelines, as well as assay method used (direct TP53 mutation assessment vs immunohistochemistry) and adjustment for standard prognostic factors. A pooled HR and 95% CI were calculated using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

Sixteen eligible studies (11 with OAC only and 5 mixed histology cohorts) including 888 patients were identified. TP53 mutations were associated with reduced survival (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.90, I²=33%). A greater prognostic effect was observed in a sensitivity analysis of those studies that reported survival for OAC-only cohorts and were assessed at low risk of bias (HR 2.11, 95% CI 1.35 to 3.31, I²=0%).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with OAC and TP53 gene mutations have reduced overall survival compared with patients without these mutations, and this effect is independent of tumour stage.

Dual role of Helicobacter and Campylobacter species in IBD: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To conduct a comprehensive global systematic review and meta-analysis on the association between Helicobacter pylori infection and IBD. As bacterial antigen cross-reactivity has been postulated to be involved in this association, published data on enterohepatic Helicobacter spp (EHS) and Campylobacter spp and IBD was also analysed.

DESIGN

Electronic databases were searched up to July 2015 for all case-control studies on H. pylori infection/EHS/Campylobacter spp and IBD. Pooled ORs (P-OR) and 95% CIs were obtained using the random effects model. Heterogeneity, sensitivity and stratified analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Analyses comprising patients with Crohn's disease (CD), UC and IBD unclassified (IBDU), showed a consistent negative association between gastric H. pylori infection and IBD (P-OR: 0.43, p value <1e-10). This association appears to be stronger in patients with CD (P-OR: 0.38, p value <1e-10) and IBDU (P-OR: 0.43, p value=0.008) than UC (P-OR: 0.53, p value <1e-10). Stratification by age, ethnicity and medications showed significant results. In contrast to gastric H. pylori, non H. pylori-EHS (P-OR: 2.62, p value=0.001) and Campylobacter spp, in particular C. concisus (P-OR: 3.76, p value=0.006) and C. showae (P-OR: 2.39, p value=0.027), increase IBD risk.

CONCLUSIONS

H. pylori infection is negatively associated with IBD regardless of ethnicity, age, H. pylori detection methods and previous use of aminosalicylates and corticosteroids. Antibiotics influenced the magnitude of this association. Closely related bacteria including EHS and Campylobacter spp increase the risk of IBD. These results infer that H. pylori might exert an immunomodulatory effect in IBD.

Acetylcholinesterase inhibitors are associated with weight loss in older people with dementia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis investigating the influence of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (AChEIs) therapy on nutritional status and weight across observational and interventional studies. Two authors searched major electronic databases from inception until 10/14/2015 for longitudinal, open-label and randomised double-blind placebo controlled (randomised controlled trials (RCTs)) studies of AChEIs in patients with dementia reporting nutritional status outcome data. Out of 3551 initial hits, 25 studies (12 open-label trials, 9 RCTs and 4 longitudinal studies) including 10 792 patients with dementia were meta-analysed. In longitudinal studies (median follow-up 6 months), a significant cumulative incidence of weight loss between baseline and follow-up evaluation was observed (studies=2; 5%; 95% CI 1% to 34%, p<0.0001; I²=95%). These findings were confirmed in open-label trials (6%; 95% CI 4% to 7%, p<0.0001; I²=78%). In 9 RCTs (median follow-up 5 months), those taking AChEIs more frequently experienced weight loss than participants taking placebo (OR=2.18; 95% CI 1.50 to 3.17, p<0.0001; I²=29%). AChEIs therapy contributes to weight loss in patients with dementia, with a 2-fold increased risk observed in the meta-analysis of RCTs. Clinicians should carefully consider the benefit and risk of prescribing AChEIs. Nutritional status should be routinely evaluated in patients with dementia treated with AChEIs.

'Journal Bias' in peer-reviewed literature: an analysis of the surgical high-grade glioma literature

The core premise of evidence-based medicine is that clinical decisions are informed by the peer-reviewed literature. To extract meaningful conclusions from this literature, one must first understand the various forms of biases inherent within the process of peer review. We performed an exhaustive search that identified articles exploring the question of whether survival benefit was associated with maximal high-grade glioma (HGG) resection and analysed this literature for patterns of publication. We found that the distribution of these 108 articles among the 26 journals to be non-random (p<0.01), with 75 of the 108 published articles (69%) appearing in 6 of the 26 journals (25%). Moreover, certain journals were likely to publish a large number of articles from the same medical academic genealogy (authors with shared training history and/or mentor). We term the tendency of certain types of articles to be published in select journals 'journal bias' and discuss the implication of this form of bias as it pertains to evidence-based medicine.

Self-administered interventions for anogenital warts in immunocompetent patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Anogenital warts (AGWs, condylomata acuminata) are among the most common STIs and may severely impact quality of life (QoL). Available treatment options are characterised by a high proportion of non-responders and recurrences.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review and meta-analyse the available evidence from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) on topical treatments for AGWs considering short-term and long-term efficacy, effects on QoL and adverse events (AE).

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was performed in Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Embase and MEDLINE. Included studies were evaluated with the Cochrane Collaboration's risk of bias tool. The confidence in the pooled effect estimates was evaluated according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach and categorised as 'very low', 'low', 'moderate' or 'high'.

RESULTS

Eighteen RCTs met the inclusion criteria. Regarding complete clearance (CC), imiquimod 3.75% and 5% cream, podophyllotoxin 0.5% solution and gel and polyphenon E 10% and 15% ointment were superior to placebo. Although more local AE and pain occurred in the actively treated groups, differences regarding dropouts due to AE were not statistically significant. For podophyllotoxin 0.15% cream, no placebo-controlled trials were available; however, in an active-controlled trial, it was inferior to podophyllotoxin 0.5% solution with respect to CC. No significant differences were detected between imiquimod 5% cream and podophyllotoxin 0.5% solution and between polyphenon E 10% and 15% ointment. No data on the influence on health-related QoL were available.

CONCLUSION

Our confidence in the pooled estimates (GRADE quality of the evidence) ranged from very low to high. Apart from the given results, other aspects such as availability, costs or patient preference have to be considered when making a treatment choice. Due to the limited number of direct comparisons, conclusions on the relative efficacy of the different treatment options are restricted.

The cognitive profile of ALS: a systematic review and meta-analysis update

Cognitive impairment is present in approximately 30% of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and, especially when severe, has a negative impact on survival and caregiver burden. Our 2010 meta-analysis of the cognitive profile of ALS showed impairment of fluency, executive function, language and memory. However, the limited number of studies resulted in large confidence intervals. To obtain a more valid assessment, we updated the meta-analysis and included methodological improvements (controlled data extraction, risk of bias analysis and effect size calculation of individual neuropsychological tests). Embase, Medline and PsycInfo were searched for neuropsychological studies of non-demented patients with ALS and age-matched and education-matched healthy controls. Neuropsychological tests were categorised in 13 cognitive domains and effect sizes (Hedges' g) were calculated for each domain and for individual tests administered in ≥5 studies. Subgroup analyses were performed to assess the influence of clinical and demographic variables. Forty-four studies were included comprising 1287 patients and 1130 healthy controls. All cognitive domains, except visuoperceptive functions, showed significant effect sizes compared to controls. Cognitive domains without bias due to motor impairment showed medium effect sizes (95% CI): fluency (0.56 (0.43 to 0.70)), language (0.56 (0.40 to 0.72)), social cognition (0.55 (0.34 to 0.76)), or small effect sizes: delayed verbal memory 0.47 (0.27 to 0.68)) and executive functions (0.41 (0.27 to 0.55)). Individual neuropsychological tests showed diverging effect sizes, which could be explained by bias due to motor impairment. Subgroup analyses showed no influence of bulbar disease onset and depression and anxiety on the cognitive outcomes. The cognitive profile of ALS consists of deficits in fluency, language, social cognition, executive functions and verbal memory. Social cognition is a new cognitive domain with a relatively large effect size, highlighting the overlap between ALS and frontotemporal dementia. The diverging effect sizes for individual neuropsychological tests show the importance of correction for motor impairment in patients with ALS. These findings have implications for bedside testing, the design of cognitive screening measures and full neuropsychological examinations.

A Meta-Analysis of Trabecular Bone Score in Fracture Risk Prediction and Its Relationship to FRAX

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Risk factors for predicting progression from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies

OBJECTIVE

We sought to identify the risk factors for predicting the progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD).

METHODS

We searched 6 electronic databases for cohort studies published from January 1966 to March 2015. Eligible studies were required to be relevant to the subject and provide sufficient data for our needs.

RESULTS

60 cohort studies with 14,821 participants from 16 countries were included in the meta-analysis. The strongest positive associations between risk factors and the progression from MCI to AD were found for abnormal cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), phosphorylated τ (p-τ) (relative risk (RR)=2.43, 95% CI=1.70 to 3.48), abnormal CSF τ/Aβ1-42 (RR=3.77, 95% CI=2.34 to 6.09), hippocampal atrophy (RR=2.59, 95% CI=1.95 to 3.44), medial temporal lobe atrophy (RR=2.11, 95% CI=1.70 to 2.63) and entorhinal atrophy (RR=2.03, 95% CI=1.57 to 2.62). Further positive associations were found for the presence of apolipoprotein E (APOE)ε4ε4 and at least 1 APOEε4 allele, CSF total-τ (t-τ), white matter hyperintensity volume, depression, diabetes, hypertension, older age, female gender, lower mini-mental state examination (MMSE) score and higher AD assessment scale cognitive subscale (ADAS-cog) score. Negative associations were found for high body mass index (RR=0.85, 95% CI=0.76 to 0.96) and higher auditory verbal learning test delay score (RR=0.86, 95% CI=0.77 to 0.96).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with MCI with APOEε4, abnormal CSF τ level, hippocampal and medial temporal lobe atrophy, entorhinal atrophy, depression, diabetes, hypertension, older age, female gender, lower MMSE score and higher ADAS-cog score, had a high risk for the progression to AD.

Transcranial direct current stimulation facilitates motor learning post-stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is an attractive protocol for stroke motor recovery. The current systematic review and meta-analysis investigated the effects of tDCS on motor learning post-stroke. Specifically, we determined long-term learning effects by examining motor improvements from baseline to at least 5 days after tDCS intervention and motor practise. 17 studies reported long-term retention testing (mean retention interval=43.8 days; SD=56.6 days) and qualified for inclusion in our meta-analysis. Assessing primary outcome measures for groups that received tDCS and motor practise versus sham control groups created 21 valid comparisons: (1) 16 clinical assessments and (2) 5 motor skill acquisition tests. A random effects model meta-analysis showed a significant overall effect size=0.59 (p<0.0001; low heterogeneity, T(2)=0.04; I(2)=22.75%; and high classic fail-safe N=240). 4 moderator variable analyses revealed beneficial effects of tDCS on long-term motor learning: (1) stimulation protocols: anodal on the ipsilesional hemisphere, cathodal on the contralesional hemisphere, or bilateral; (2) recovery stage: subacute or chronic stroke; (3) stimulation timing: tDCS before or during motor practise; and (4) task-specific training or conventional rehabilitation protocols. This robust meta-analysis identified novel long-term motor learning effects with tDCS and motor practise post-stroke.