Risk scores for prediction of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation after acute ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Detection of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) is crucial for secondary prevention in patients with recent strokes of unknown etiology. This systematic review and meta-analysis assess the predictive power of available risk scores for detecting new PAF after acute ischemic stroke (AIS).

Methods

PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched until September 2023 to identify relevant studies. A bivariate random effects meta-analysis model pooled data on sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) for each score. The QUADAS-2 tool was used for the quality assessment.

Results

Eventually, 21 studies with 18 original risk scores were identified. Age, left atrial enlargement, and NIHSS score were the most common predictive factors, respectively. Seven risk scores were meta-analyzed, with iPAB showing the highest pooled sensitivity and AUC (sensitivity: 89.4%, specificity: 74.2%, AUC: 0.83), and HAVOC having the highest pooled specificity (sensitivity: 46.3%, specificity: 82.0%, AUC: 0.82). Altogether, seven risk scores displayed good discriminatory power (AUC ≥0.80) with four of them (HAVOC, iPAB, Fujii, and MVP scores) being externally validated.

Conclusion

Available risk scores demonstrate moderate to good predictive accuracy and can help identify patients who would benefit from extended cardiac monitoring after AIS. External validation is essential before widespread clinical adoption.

Circulating metabolomic markers linking diabetic kidney disease and incident cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes: analyses from the Hong Kong Diabetes Biobank

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to describe the metabolome in diabetic kidney disease (DKD) and its association with incident CVD in type 2 diabetes, and identify prognostic biomarkers.

METHODS

From a prospective cohort of individuals with type 2 diabetes, baseline sera (N=1991) were quantified for 170 metabolites using NMR spectroscopy with median 5.2 years of follow-up. Associations of chronic kidney disease (CKD, eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) or severely increased albuminuria with each metabolite were examined using linear regression, adjusted for confounders and multiplicity. Associations between DKD (CKD or severely increased albuminuria)-related metabolites and incident CVD were examined using Cox regressions. Metabolomic biomarkers were identified and assessed for CVD prediction and replicated in two independent cohorts.

RESULTS

At false discovery rate (FDR)<0.05, 156 metabolites were associated with DKD (151 for CKD and 128 for severely increased albuminuria), including apolipoprotein B-containing lipoproteins, HDL, fatty acids, phenylalanine, tyrosine, albumin and glycoprotein acetyls. Over 5.2 years of follow-up, 75 metabolites were associated with incident CVD at FDR<0.05. A model comprising age, sex and three metabolites (albumin, triglycerides in large HDL and phospholipids in small LDL) performed comparably to conventional risk factors (C statistic 0.765 vs 0.762, p=0.893) and adding the three metabolites further improved CVD prediction (C statistic from 0.762 to 0.797, p=0.014) and improved discrimination and reclassification. The 3-metabolite score was validated in independent Chinese and Dutch cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Altered metabolomic signatures in DKD are associated with incident CVD and improve CVD risk stratification.

Performance of the European Society of Cardiology 0/1-hour algorithm with high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T at 90 days among patients with known coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND

The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) 0/1-h high sensitivity troponin T (hs-cTnT) algorithm does not differentiate risk based on known coronary artery disease (CAD: prior myocardial infarction [MI], coronary revascularization, or ≥ 70% coronary stenosis). We recently evaluated its performance among patients with known CAD at 30-days, but little is known about its longer-term risk prediction. The objective of this study is to determine and compare the performance of the algorithm at 90-days among patients with and without known CAD.

METHODS

We performed a pre-planned subgroup analysis of the STOP-CP cohort, which prospectively enrolled ED patients ≥21 years old with symptoms suggestive of ACS without ST-elevation on initial ECG across 8 US sites (1/25/2017-9/6/2018). Participants with 0- and 1-h hs-cTnT measures (Roche, Basel, Switzerland) were stratified into rule-out, observe, and rule-in groups using the ESC 0/1-h algorithm. Algorithm performance was tested among patients with or without known CAD, as determined by the treating provider. The primary outcome was cardiac death or MI at 90-days. Fisher's exact tests were used to compare 90-day event and rule-out rates between patients with and without known CAD. Negative predictive values (NPVs) for 90-day cardiac death or MI with exact 95% confidence intervals were calculated and compared using Fisher's exact test.

RESULTS

The STOP-CP study accrued 1430 patients, of which 31.4% (449/1430) had known CAD. Cardiac death or MI at 90 days was more common in patients with known CAD than in those without [21.2% (95/449) vs. 10.0% (98/981); p < 0.001]. Using the ESC 0/1-h algorithm, 39.6% (178/449) of patients with known CAD and 66.1% (648/981) of patients without known CAD were ruled-out (p < 0.001). Among rule-out patients, 90-day cardiac death or MI occurred in 3.4% (6/178) of patients with known CAD and 1.2% (8/648) without known CAD (p = 0.09). NPV for 90-day cardiac death or MI was 96.6% (95%CI 92.8-98.8) among patients with known CAD and 98.8% (95%CI 97.6-99.5) in patients without known CAD (p = 0.09).

CONCLUSION

Patients with known CAD who were ruled-out using the ESC 0/1-h hs-cTnT algorithm had a high rate of missed 90-day cardiac events, suggesting that the ESC 0/1-h hs-cTnT algorithm may not be safe for use among patients with known CAD.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T to Optimize Chest Pain Risk Stratification (STOP-CP; ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02984436; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02984436).

Prognostic impact of variant histology in bladder cancer: Would early and aggressive treatment shift the paradigm?

INTRODUCTION

Bladder cancer (BC) is an increasingly frequent malignancy worldwide. Several variant histologies (VH) have been described in BC with a distinct clinical behavior.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to assess the prognostic impact of VH in BC, comparing its outcomes to pure urothelial carcinoma PUC in both non-muscle invasive (NMIBC) and muscle-invasive (MIBC) settings.

METHODS

We included patients with primary BC, comparing those with VH with those with PUC, with an age and sex-matched proportion of 1:3, considering stage at diagnosis, recurrence-free, progression-free, and overall survival (OS). A total of 616 patients were included in the study, (460 UC and 151 VH).

RESULTS

After first TURBT, MIBC was present in 99 (64.1%) of patients with VH, and 95 (20.6%) with UC (p<0.001). Concerning NMIBC, we observed higher rates of progression to MIBC amid patients with VH (p=0.009). Nodal involvement (p=0.020) and metastatic disease (p<0.001) were significantly higher within the VH group. A higher OS was observed among patients with NMIBC of PUC (p<0.001). There were no statistically significant differences of metastasis-free survival and OS between VH and UC groups within the MIBC setting.

CONCLUSION

We confirmed that VH presents a more aggressive clinical course compared to PUC. An earlier radical treatment within the NMIBC setting could increase the oncological outcomes of the VH patients.

Improving sudden cardiac death risk stratification in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy using established clinical variables and genetic information

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The cardiac societies of Europe and the United States have established different risk models for preventing sudden cardiac death (SCD) in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). The aim of this study is to validate current SCD risk prediction methods in a German HCM cohort and to improve them by the addition of genotype information.

METHODS

HCM patients without prior SCD or equivalent arrhythmic events ≥ 18 years of age were enrolled in an expert cardiomyopathy center in Germany. The primary endpoint was defined as SCD/-equivalent within 5 years of baseline evaluation. 5-year SCD-risk estimates and recommendations for ICD implantations, as defined by the ESC and AHA/ACC guidelines, were analyzed. Multivariate cox proportional hazards analyses were integrated with genetic findings as additive SCD risk.

RESULTS

283 patients were included and followed for in median 5.77 years (2.92; 8.85). A disease-causing variant was found in 138 (49%) patients. 14 (5%) patients reached the SCD endpoint (5-year incidence 4.9%). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis shows significantly lower overall SCD event-free survival for patients with an identified disease-causing variant (p < 0.05). The ESC HCM Risk-SCD model showed an area-under-the-curve (AUC) of 0.74 (95% CI 0.68-0.79; p < 0.0001) with a sensitivity of 0.29 (95% CI 0.08-0.58) and specificity of 0.83 (95% CI 0.78-0.88) for a risk estimate ≥ 6%/5-years. By comparison, the AHA/ACC HCM SCD risk stratification model showed an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.65-0.76; p = 0.003) with a sensitivity of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.66-0.998) and specificity of 0.28 (95% CI 0.23-0.34) at the respective cut-off. The modified SCD Risk Score with genetic information yielded an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI 0.71-0.81; p < 0.0001) with a sensitivity of 0.86 (95% CI 0.57-0.98) and specificity of 0.69 (95% CI 0.63-0.74). The number-needed-to-treat (NNT) to prevent 1 SCD event by prophylactic ICD-implantation is 13 for the ESC model, 28 for AHA/ACC and 9 for the modified Genotype-model.

CONCLUSION

This study confirms the performance of current risk models in clinical decision making. The integration of genetic findings into current SCD risk stratification methods seem feasible and can add in decision making, especially in borderline risk-groups. A subgroup of patients with high SCD risk remains unidentified by current risk scores.

Imaging Modalities for Assessing the Vascular Component of Diabetic Retinal Disease: Review and Consensus for an Updated Staging System

Purpose

To review the evidence for imaging modalities in assessing the vascular component of diabetic retinal disease (DRD), to inform updates to the DRD staging system.

Design

Standardized narrative review of the literature by an international expert workgroup, as part of the DRD Staging System Update Effort, a project of the Mary Tyler Moore Vision Initiative. Overall, there were 6 workgroups: Vascular Retina, Neural Retina, Systemic Health, Basic and Cellular Mechanisms, Visual Function, and Quality of Life.

Participants

The Vascular Retina workgroup, including 16 participants from 4 countries.

Methods

Literature review was conducted using standardized evidence grids for 5 modalities: standard color fundus photography (CFP), widefield color photography (WFCP), standard fluorescein angiography (FA), widefield FA (WFFA), and OCT angiography (OCTA). Summary levels of evidence were determined on a validated scale from I (highest) to V (lowest). Five virtual workshops were held for discussion and consensus.

Main Outcome Measures

Level of evidence for each modality.

Results

Levels of evidence for standard CFP, WFCP, standard FA, WFFA, and OCTA were I, II, I, I, and II respectively. Traditional vascular lesions on standard CFP should continue to be included in an updated staging system, but more studies are required before they can be used in posttreatment eyes. Widefield color photographs can be used for severity grading within the area covered by standard CFPs, although these gradings may not be directly interchangeable with each other. Evaluation of the peripheral retina on WFCP can be considered, but the method of grading needs to be clarified and validated. Standard FA and WFFA provide independent prognostic value, but the need for dye administration should be considered. OCT angiography has significant potential for inclusion in the DRD staging system, but various barriers need to be addressed first.

Conclusions

This study provides evidence-based recommendations on the utility of various imaging modalities for assessment of the vascular component of DRD, which can inform future updates to the DRD staging system. Although new imaging modalities offer a wealth of information, there are still major gaps and unmet research needs that need to be addressed before this potential can be realized.

Financial Disclosures

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

A Primer for Primary Care Physicians Managing Neurogenic Bladder Patients

Primary care plays an important role in caring for neurogenic bladder patients. Clinicians should assess neurogenic bladder patients for common urologic symptoms/signs and refer to urology if refractory or safety issues are identified.

Intermediate-Risk and High-Risk Pulmonary Embolism: Recognition and Management: Cardiology Clinics: Cardiac Emergencies

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is the third most common cause of cardiovascular death. Every specialty of medical practitioner will encounter PE in their patients, and should be prepared to employ contemporary strategies for diagnosis and initial risk-stratification. Treatment of PE is based on risk-stratification, with anticoagulation for all patients, and advanced modalities including systemic thrombolysis, catheter-directed therapies, and mechanical circulatory supports utilized in a manner paralleling PE severity and clinical context.

N6-methyladenosine-associated genetic variants in NECTIN2 and HPCAL1 are risk factors for abdominal aortic aneurysm

Although N6-methyladenosine (m6A) modification has been implicated in the pathogenesis of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), the relationship between m6A-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (m6A-SNPs) and AAA remains unknown. This study used integrative multi-omics analysis and clinical validation approaches to systematically identify potential m6A-SNPs connected with AAA risk. We found that rs6859 and rs10198139 could modulate the expression of local genes, NECTIN2 and HPCAL1, respectively, which exhibited upregulation in AAA tissues, and their risk variants were significantly correlated with an increased susceptibility to AAA. Incorporating rs6859 and rs10198139 improved the efficiency of AAA risk prediction compared to the model considering only conventional risk factors. Additionally, these two SNPs were predicted to be located within the regulatory sequences, and rs6859 showed a substantial impact on m6A modification levels. Our findings suggest that m6A-SNPs rs6859 and rs10198139 confer an elevated risk of AAA, possibly by promoting local gene expression through an m6A-mediated manner.

Space research to explore novel biochemical insights on Earth

Travel to space has overcome unprecedent technological challenges and this has resulted in transfer of these technological results on Earth to better our lives. Health technology, medical devices, and research advancements in human biology are the first beneficiaries of this transfer. The real breakthrough came with the International Space Station, which endorsed multidisciplinary international scientific collaborations and boosted the research on pathophysiological adaptation of astronauts to life on space. These studies evidenced that life in space appeared to have exposed the astronauts to an accelerated aging-related pathophysiological dysregulation across multiple systems. In this review we emphasize the interaction between several biomarkers and their alteration in concentrations/expression/function by space stress factors. These altered interactions, suggest that different biochemical and hormonal factors, and cell signals, contribute to a complex network of pathophysiological mechanisms, orchestrating the homeostatic dysregulation of various organs/metabolic pathways. The main effects of space travel on altering cell organelles biology, ultrastructure, and cross-talk, have been observed in cell aging as well as in the disruption of metabolic pathways, which are also the causal factor of rare inherited metabolic disorders, one of the major pediatric health issue. The pathophysiologic breakthrough from space research could allow the development of precision health both on Earth and Space by promoting the validation of improved biomarker-based risk scores and the exploration of new pathophysiologic hypotheses and therapeutic targets. Nonstandard abbreviations: International Space Station (ISS), Artificial Intelligence (AI), European Space Agency (ESA), National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA), Low Earth Orbit (LEO), high sensitive troponin (hs-cTn), high sensitive troponin I (hs-cTn I), high sensitive troponin T, Brain Natriuretic Peptide (BNP), N terminal Brain Natriuretic Peptide (NT-BNP), cardiovascular disease (CVD), parathyroid hormone (PTH), urinary hydroxyproline (uHP), urinary C- and N-terminal telopeptides (uCTX and uNTX), pyridinoline (PYD), deoxypyridinoline (DPD), half-time (HF), serum Bone Alkaline Phosphatase (sBSAP), serum Alkaline Phosphatase (sAP), Carboxy-terminal Propeptide of Type 1 Procollagen (P1CP), serum Osteocalcin (sOC)), advanced glycation end products (AGEs), glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), Insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1), Growth Hormone (GH), amino acid (AA), β-hydroxy-β methyl butyrate (HMB), maple syrup urine disease (MSUD), non-communicable diseases (NCDs).

Omics-based biomarkers as useful tools in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease clinical practice: How far are we?

Unmet needs exist in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) risk stratification. Our ability to identify patients with MASLD with advanced fibrosis and at higher risk for adverse outcomes is still limited. Incorporating novel biomarkers could represent a meaningful improvement to current risk predictors. With this aim, omics technologies have revolutionized the process of MASLD biomarker discovery over the past decades. While the research in this field is thriving, much of the publication has been haphazard, often using single-omics data and specimen sets of convenience, with many identified candidate biomarkers but lacking clinical validation and utility. If we incorporate these biomarkers to direct patients’ management, it should be considered that the roadmap for translating a newly discovered omics-based signature to an actual, analytically valid test useful in MASLD clinical practice is rigorous and, therefore, not easily accomplished. This article presents an overview of this area’s current state, the conceivable opportunities and challenges of omics-based laboratory diagnostics, and a roadmap for improving MASLD biomarker research.

Value of a multidisciplinary geriatric oncology committee on patient care in a community-based, academic cancer center

INTRODUCTION

The heterogeneity in health and functional ability among older patients makes the management of cancer a unique challenge. The Geriatric Oncology Program at the University of Maryland Baltimore Washington Medical Center (BWMC) was created to optimize cancer management for older patients. This study aimed to assess the benefits of the implementation of such a program at a community-based academic cancer center.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We analyzed patients aged ≥80 years presenting to the Geriatric Oncology Program between 2017 and 2022. A multidisciplinary team of specialists collectively reviewed each patient using geriatric-specific domains and stratified each patient into one of three management groups- Group 1: those deemed fit to receive standard oncologic care (SOC); Group 2: those recommended to receive optimization services prior to reassessment for SOC; and Group 3: those deemed to be best suited for supportive care and/or hospice care.

RESULTS

The study cohort consisted of 233 patients, of which 76 (32.6%) received SOC, 43 (18.5%) were optimized, and 114 (49.0%) received supportive care or hospice referral. Among the optimized patients, 69.8% were deemed fit for SOC upon re-evaluation following their respective optimization services. The Canadian Study of Health and Aging-Clinical Frailty Scale (CSHA-CFS) score was implemented in 2019 (n = 90). Patients receiving supportive/hospice care only had an average score of 5.8, while the averages for those in the optimization and SOC groups were 4.6 and 4.1, respectively (p ≤0.001). Patients receiving SOC had the longest average survival of 2.71 years compared to the optimization (2.30 years) and supportive care groups (0.93 years) (p ≤0.001). For all patients that underwent surgical interventions post-operatively, 23 patients (85%) were discharged home and four (15%) were discharged to a rehabilitation facility.

DISCUSSION

The present study demonstrates the profound impact that the complexities in health status and frailty among older individuals can have during cancer management. The Geriatric Oncology Program at BWMC maximized treatment outcomes for older adults through the provision of SOC therapies and optimization services, while also minimizing unnecessary interventions on an individual patient-centric level.

Signs or symptoms of suspected preeclampsia - A retrospective national database study of prevalence, costs, and outcomes

BACKGROUND

Most patients with signs or symptoms (s/s) of suspected preeclampsia are not diagnosed with preeclampsia. We sought to determine and compare the prevalence of s/s, pregnancy outcomes, and costs between patients with and without diagnosed preeclampsia.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study analyzed a large insurance research database. Pregnancies with s/s of preeclampsia versus a confirmed preeclampsia diagnosis were identified using International Classification of Diseases codes. S/s include hypertension, proteinuria, headache, visual symptoms, edema, abdominal pain, and nausea/vomiting. Pregnancies were classed as 1) s/s of preeclampsia without a confirmed preeclampsia diagnosis (suspicion only), 2) s/s with a confirmed diagnosis (preeclampsia with suspicion), 3) diagnosed preeclampsia without s/s recorded (preeclampsia only), and 4) no s/s, nor preeclampsia diagnosis (control).

RESULTS

Of 1,324,424 pregnancies, 29.2 % had ≥1 documented s/s of suspected preeclampsia, and 14.2 % received a preeclampsia diagnosis. Hypertension and headache were the most common s/s, leading 20.2 % and 9.2 % pregnancies developed to preeclampsia diagnosis, respectively. Preeclampsia, with or without suspicion, had the highest rates of hypertension-related severe maternal morbidity (HR [95 % CI]: 3.0 [2.7, 3.2] and 3.6 [3.3, 4.0], respectively) versus controls. A similar trend was seen in neonatal outcomes such as preterm delivery and low birth weight. Cases in which preeclampsia was suspected but not confirmed had the highest average total maternal care costs ($6096 [95 % CI: 602, 6170] over control).

CONCLUSION

There is a high prevalence but poor selectivity of traditional s/s of preeclampsia, highlighting a clinical need for improved screening method and cost-effectiveness disease management.

Transcriptomic Heterogeneity of Expansile Cribriform and Other Gleason Pattern 4 Prostate Cancer Subtypes

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancers featuring an expansile cribriform (EC) pattern are associated with worse clinical outcomes following radical prostatectomy (RP). However, studies of the genomic characteristics of Gleason pattern 4 subtypes are limited.

OBJECTIVE

To explore transcriptomic characteristics and heterogeneity within Gleason pattern 4 subtypes (fused/poorly formed, glomeruloid, small cribriform, EC/intraductal carcinoma [IDC]) and the association with biochemical recurrence (BCR)-free survival.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a retrospective cohort study including 165 men with grade group 2-4 prostate cancer who underwent RP at a single academic institution (2016-2020) and Decipher testing of the RP specimen. Patients with Gleason pattern 5 were excluded. IDC and EC patterns were grouped. Median follow-up was 2.5 yr after RP for patients without BCR.

OUTCOMES MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Prompted by heterogeneity within pattern 4 subtypes identified via exploratory analyses, we investigated transcriptomic consensus clusters using partitioning around medoids and hallmark gene set scores. The primary clinical outcome was BCR, defined as two consecutive prostate-specific antigen measurements >0.2 ng/ml at least 8 wk after RP, or any additional treatment. Multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models were used to determine factors associated with BCR-free survival.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

In this cohort, 99/165 patients (60%) had EC and 67 experienced BCR. Exploratory analyses and clustering demonstrated transcriptomic heterogeneity within each Gleason pattern 4 subtype. In the multivariable model controlled for pattern 4 subtype, margin status, Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Post-Surgical score, and Decipher score, a newly identified steroid hormone-driven cluster (hazard ratio 2.35 95% confidence interval 1.01-5.47) was associated with worse BCR-free survival. The study is limited by intermediate follow-up, no validation cohort, and lack of accounting for intratumoral and intraprostatic heterogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

Transcriptomic heterogeneity was present within and across each Gleason pattern 4 subtype, demonstrating there is additional biologic diversity not captured by histologic subtypes. This heterogeneity can be used to develop novel signatures and to classify transcriptomic subtypes, which may help in refining risk stratification following RP to further guide decision-making on adjuvant and salvage treatments.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We studied prostatectomy specimens and found that tumors with similar microscopic appearance can have genetic differences that may help to predict outcomes after prostatectomy for prostate cancer. Our results demonstrate that further gene expression analysis of prostate cancer subtypes may improve risk stratification after prostatectomy. Future studies are needed to develop novel gene expression signatures and validate these findings in independent sets of patients.

Effects of Androgen Deprivation Therapy on Prostate Cancer Outcomes According to Competing Event Risk: Secondary Analysis of a Phase 3 Randomised Trial

BACKGROUND

Previous studies indicate that the benefit of short-term androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) with radiotherapy (RT) for prostate cancer depends on competing risks.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether a quantitative method to stratify patients by risk for competing events (omega score) could identify subgroups that selectively benefit from ADT.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

An ancillary analysis of NRG/RTOG 9408 phase 3 trial (NCT00002597) involving 1945 prostate cancer patients was conducted.

INTERVENTION

Short-term ADT.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

We applied generalised competing event regression models incorporating age, performance status, comorbidity, T category, Gleason score (GS), and prostate-specific antigen (PSA), to stratify patients according to relative hazards for primary cancer-related events (distant metastasis or prostate cancer death) versus competing noncancer mortality. We tested interactions between ADT and subgroups defined by standard risk criteria versus relative risk (RR) using the omega score.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

T2b, higher GS, and higher PSA were associated with an increased RR for cancer-related versus competing mortality events (a higher omega score); increased age and comorbidity were associated with a decreased omega score. Of 996 patients with low-risk/favourable intermediate-risk (FIR) disease, 286 (28.7%) had a high omega score (≥0.314). Of 768 patients with unfavourable intermediate-risk disease, 175 (22.8%) had a low omega score. The overall discordance in risk classification was 26.1%. Both standard criteria and omega score identified significant interactions for the effect of ADT on cancer-related events and late mortality in low- versus high-risk subgroups. Within the low-risk/FIR subgroup, a higher omega score identified patients in whom ADT significantly reduced cancer events and improved event-free survival. Limitations are the need for external/prospective validation and lower RT doses than contemporary standards.

CONCLUSIONS

Stratification based on competing event risk is useful for identifying prostate cancer patients who selectively benefit from ADT.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We analysed the effectiveness of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) for localised prostate cancer among patients, defined by the relative risk (RR) for cancer versus noncancer events. Among patients with traditional low-risk/favourable intermediate-risk disease, those with a higher RR benefitted from short-term ADT.

OHCCPredictor: an online risk stratification model for predicting survival duration of older patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Although the elderly constitute more than a third of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, they have not been adequately represented in treatment and prognosis studies. Thus, there is not enough evidence to guide the treatment of such patients. The objective of this study is to identify the prognostic factors of older patients with HCC and to construct a new prognostic model for predicting their overall survival (OS).

METHODS

2,721 HCC patients aged ≥ 65 were extracted from the public database-Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and randomly divided into a training set and an internal validation set with a ratio of 7:3. 101 patients diagnosed from 2008 to 2017 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine were identified as the external validation set. Univariate cox regression analyses and multivariate cox regression analyses were adopted to identify these independent prognostic factors. A predictive nomogram-based risk stratification model was proposed and evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, and a decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

These attributes including age, sex, marital status, T stage, N stage, surgery, chemotherapy, tumor size, alpha-fetoprotein level, fibrosis score, bone metastasis, lung metastasis, and grade were the independent prognostic factors for older patients with HCC while predicting survival duration. We found that the nomogram provided a good assessment of OS at 1, 3, and 5 years in older patients with HCC (1-year OS: (training set: AUC = 0.823 (95%CI 0.803-0.845); internal validation set: AUC = 0.847 (95%CI 0.818-0.876); external validation set: AUC = 0.732 (95%CI 0.521-0.943)); 3-year OS: (training set: AUC = 0.813 (95%CI 0.790-0.837); internal validation set: AUC = 0.844 (95%CI 0.812-0.876); external validation set: AUC = 0.780 (95%CI 0.674-0.887)); 5-year OS: (training set: AUC = 0.839 (95%CI 0.806-0.872); internal validation set: AUC = 0.800 (95%CI 0.751-0.849); external validation set: AUC = 0.821 (95%CI 0.727-0.914)). The calibration curves showed that the nomogram was with strong calibration. The DCA indicated that the nomogram can be used as an effective tool in clinical practice. The risk stratification of all subgroups was statistically significant (p < 0.05). In the stratification analysis of surgery, larger resection (LR) achieved a better survival curve than local destruction (LD), but a worse one than segmental resection (SR) and liver transplantation (LT) (p < 0.0001). With the consideration of the friendship to clinicians, we further developed an online interface (OHCCPredictor) for such a predictive function ( https://juntaotan.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp_hcc/ ). With such an easily obtained online tool, clinicians will be provided helpful assistance in formulating personalized therapy to assess the prognosis of older patients with HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Age, sex, marital status, T stage, N stage, surgery, chemotherapy, tumor size, AFP level, fibrosis score, bone metastasis, lung metastasis, and grade were independent prognostic factors for elderly patients with HCC. The constructed nomogram model based on the above factors could accurately predict the prognosis of such patients. Besides, the developed online web interface of the predictive model provide easily obtained access for clinicians.

Identification of an Ultra-High-Risk Subgroup of Neuroblastoma Patients within the High-Risk Cohort Using a Computed Tomography-Based Radiomics Approach

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

To identify ultra-high-risk (UHR) neuroblastoma patients who experienced disease-related mortality within 18 months of diagnosis within the high-risk cohort using computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics analysis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 105 high-risk neuroblastoma patients, divided into a training set (n = 74) and a test set (n = 31). Radiomics features were extracted and selected from arterial phase CT images, and an optimal radiomics signature was established using the support vector machine algorithm. Evaluation metrics, including area under the curve (AUC) and 95% confidence interval (CI), were calculated. Furthermore, the fit and clinical benefit of the signature, along with its correlation with overall survival (OS), were analyzed.

RESULTS

The optimal radiomics signature comprised 11 features. In the training set, AUC and accuracy were 0.911 (95% CI: 0.840-0.982) and 0.892, respectively. In the test set, AUC and accuracy were 0.828 (95% CI: 0.669-0.987) and 0.839, respectively. There was no significant difference between predicted probability and actual probability, and the signature demonstrated net benefit. The concordance index of this signature for predicting OS was 0.743 (95% CI: 0.672-0.814) in the training set and 0.688 (95% CI: 0.566-0.810) in the test set. Moreover, the signature achieved AUC values of 0.832, 0.863, and 0.721 for 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year OS in the training set, and 0.870, 0.836, and 0.638 in the test set for the respective time periods.

CONCLUSION

The utilization of CT-based radiomics signature to identify an UHR subgroup of neuroblastoma patients within the high-risk cohort can help aid in predicting early disease progression.

Immunophenotypic profile defines cytogenetic stability and unveils distinct prognoses in patients with newly-diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM)

Prognostic significance of multiple immune antigens in multiple myeloma has been well established. However, a level of uncertainty remains regarding the intrinsic relationship between immunophenotypes and cytogenetic stability and precise risk stratification. To address these unresolved issues, we conducted a study involving 1389 patients enrolled in the National Longitudinal Cohort of Hematological Diseases in China (NCT04645199). Our results revealed that the correlation between antigen expression and cytogenetics is more prominent than cytopenia or organ dysfunction. Most immune antigens, apart from CD38, CD138, and CD81, exhibit significant associations with the incidence of at least one cytogenetic abnormality. In turn, we identified CD138-low/CD27-neg as specific adverse immunophenotypic profile, which remaining independent impact on progression-free survival (HR, 1.49; P = 0.007) and overall survival (HR, 1.77; P < 0.001) even in the context of cytogenetics. Importantly, CD138-low/CD27-neg profile was also associated with inferior survival after first relapse (P < 0.001). Moreover, the antigen expression profiles were not strictly similar when comparing diagnosis and relapse; in particular, the CD138-low/CD27-neg pattern was notably increased after disease progression (19.1 to 29.1%; P = 0.005). Overall, our study demonstrates that diverse immune profiles are strongly associated with cytogenetic stability, and a specific immunophenotype (CD138-low/CD27-neg) could effectively predict prognoses across different disease stages.

Investigations of the prognostic value of RUNX1 mutation in acute myeloid leukemia patients: Data from a real-world study

RUNX1 is one of the recurrent mutated genes in newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Although historically recognized as a provisional distinct entity, the AML subtype with RUNX1 mutations (AML-RUNX1mut) was eliminated from the 2022 WHO classification system. To gain more insight into the characteristics of AML-RUNX1mut, we retrospectively analyzed 1065 newly diagnosed adult AML patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University between January 2017 and December 2021. RUNX1 mutations were identified in 112 patients (10.5%). The presence of RUNX1 mutation (RUNX1mut) conferred a lower composite complete remission (CRc) rate (40.2% vs. 58.4%, P＜0.001), but no significant difference was observed in the 5-year overall survival (OS) rate (50.2% vs. 53.9%; HR=1.293; P=0.115) and event-free survival (EFS) rate (51.5% vs. 49.4%; HR=1.487, P=0.089), even within the same risk stratification. Multivariate analysis showed that RUNX1mut was not an independent prognostic factor for OS (HR=1.352, P=0.068) or EFS (HR=1.129, P=0.513). When patients were stratified according to induction regimen, RUNX1mut was an unfavorable factor for CRc both on univariate and multivariate analysis in patients receiving conventional chemotherapy, and higher risk stratification predicted worse OS. In those who received venetoclax plus hypomethylating agents, RUNX1mut was not predictive of CRc and comparable OS and EFS were seen between intermediate-risk and adverse-risk groups. The results of this study revealed that the impact of RUNX1mut is limited. Its prognostic value depended more on treatment and co-occurrent abnormalities. VEN-HMA may abrogate the prognostic impact of RUNX1, which merits a larger prospective cohort to illustrate.

The Ability of the STAR-CAP Staging System to Prognosticate the Risk of Subsequent Therapies and Metastases After Initial Treatment of M0 Prostate Cancer

INTRODUCTION

The International Staging Collaboration for Prostate Cancer (STAR-CAP) has been proposed as a risk model for prostate cancer with superior prognostic power compared to the current staging system. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of STAR-CAP in predicting the risk of subsequent therapy after initial treatment and the risk of developing metastases.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study included 3425 men from an institutional observational registry with a median age of 64.9 years and a median follow-up time of 5.4 years. The primary endpoints were metastases and progression to additional therapy after initial therapy (radiation ± surgery). The risk of progression in the STAR-CAP group was estimated using a competing risk model (death).

RESULTS

The results showed that patients with STAR-CAP stages 1A-1C had a similar risk of requiring additional therapies and developing metastasis. Compared to stage IC, each stage from 2A to 3B incrementally increased the risk of subsequent therapy (hazard ratio (HR) 1.4-5.8, respectively) and metastases (HR 1.5-10.8, respectively). The 5-year probability of receiving subsequent therapy for a patient with stage IC was 8.6%, which increased from 11.4% to 37.4% for those with stages 2A to 3B. The 5-year probability of developing metastases for patients with stage IC was 1.5%, which increased from 2.2% to 8.2% for patients with stages 2A to 3B.

CONCLUSIONS

The probability of receiving subsequent therapy was higher for patients undergoing surgery, while radiation therapy patients were more likely to receive treatment with intensified multimodality therapies upfront.

Mitral Regurgitation Complicated by Cardiogenic Shock: Reassessing Risk Stratification and Therapeutic Strategies

Mitral regurgitation complicated by cardiogenic shock creates a unique and devastating risk profile for patients and poses significant difficulties for physicians who lack a comprehensive range of effective management strategies. Supportive measures such as intravenous vasodilators, intra-aortic balloon pumps, and percutaneous ventricular assist devices are often necessary to stabilize patients prior to definitive treatment with surgical mitral valve replacement or trans-catheter edge-to-edge repair. This review evaluates the evidence for the available supportive and definitive management strategies in patients with mitral regurgitation complicated by cardiogenic shock and presents a framework to aid clinicians in navigating the complex clinical decision-making process. Additionally, the authors review emerging transcatheter mitral valve replacement technologies that hold promise for expanding the therapeutic armamentarium and improving patient outcomes.

GRACE scores or high-sensitivity troponin for timing of coronary angiography in non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndromes

BACKGROUND

The GRACE risk score is generically recommended by guidelines for timing of invasive coronary angiography without stating which score should be used. The aim was to determine the diagnostic performance of different GRACE risk scores in comparison to the ESC 0/1 h-algorithm using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn).

METHODS

Prospectively enrolled patients presenting with symptoms suggestive of myocardial infarction (MI) in two large studies testing biomarker diagnostic strategies were included. Five GRACE risk scores were calculated. The amount of risk reclassification and the theoretical impact on guideline-recommended timing of invasive coronary angiography was studied.

RESULTS

Overall, 8,618 patients were eligible for analyses. Comparing different GRACE risk scores, up to 63.8% of participants were reclassified into a different risk category. The proportion of MIs identified (i.e., sensitivity) dramatically differed between GRACE risk scores (range 23.8-66.5%) and was lower for any score than for the ESC 0/1 h-algorithm (78.1%). Supplementing the ESC 0/1 h-algorithm with a GRACE risk score slightly increased sensitivity (P < 0.001 for all scores). However, this increased the number of false positive results.

CONCLUSION

The substantial amount of risk reclassification causes clinically meaningful differences in the proportion of patients meeting the recommended threshold for pursuing early invasive strategy according to the different GRACE scores. The single best test to detect MIs is the ESC 0/1 h-algorithm. Combining GRACE risk scoring with hs-cTn testing slightly increases the detection of MIs but also increases the number of patients with false positive results who would undergo potential unnecessarily early invasive coronary angiography.

Cardiovascular Disease in Total Knee Arthroplasty: An Analysis of Hospital Outcomes, Complications, and Mortality

Background

Cardiovascular comorbidities have been identified as a significant risk factor for adverse outcomes following surgery. The purpose of this study was to investigate its prevalence and impact on postoperative outcomes, hospital metrics, and mortality in patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Our hypothesis was that patients with cardiovascular comorbidities would have worse outcomes, greater postoperative complication rates, and increased mortality compared to patients without cardiovascular disease.

Methods

In this retrospective study, data from the National Inpatient Sample database from 2011 to 2020 were queried for patients who underwent TKA with preexisting cardiac comorbidities, including congestive heart failure (CHF), coronary artery disease (CAD), valvular dysfunction, and arrhythmia. Multivariate logistic regression analyses compared hospital metrics (length of stay, costs, and adverse discharge disposition), postoperative complications, and mortality rates while adjusting for demographic and clinical variables. All statistical analyses were performed using R studio 4.2.2 and Stata MP 17 and 18 with Python package.

Results

A total of 385,585 patients were identified. Those with preexisting CHF, CAD, valvular dysfunction, or arrhythmias were found to be older and at higher risk of adverse outcomes, including prolonged length of stay, increased hospital charges, and increased mortality (p < 0.001). Additionally, all preexisting cardiac diagnoses led to an increased risk of postoperative myocardial infarction, acute kidney injury (AKI), and need for transfusion (p < 0.001). The presence of valvular dysfunction, arrhythmia, or CHF was associated with an increased risk of thromboembolic events (p < 0.001). The presence of CAD and valvular dysfunction was associated with an increased risk of urologic infection (p < 0.001).

Conclusions

This study demonstrated that CHF, CAD, valvular dysfunction, and arrhythmia are prevalent among TKA patients and associated with worse hospital metrics, higher risk of perioperative complications, and increased mortality. As our use of TKA rises, a lower threshold for preoperative cardiology referral in older individuals and early preoperative counseling/intervention in those with known cardiac disease may be necessary to reduce adverse outcomes.

Development and validation of a preoperative risk nomogram prediction model for gastric gastrointestinal stromal tumors

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) carry a potential risk of malignancy, and the treatment of GIST varies for different risk levels. However, there is no systematic preoperative assessment protocol to predict the malignant potential of GIST. The aim of this study was to develop a reliable and clinically applicable preoperative nomogram prediction model to predict the malignant potential of gastric GIST.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients with a pathological diagnosis of gastric GIST from January 2015 to December 2021 were screened retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate logistic analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for gastric GIST with high malignancy potential. Based on these independent risk factors, a nomogram model predicting the malignant potential of gastric GIST was developed and the model was validated in the validation group.

RESULTS

A total of 494 gastric GIST patients were included in this study and allocated to a development group (n = 345) and a validation group (n = 149). In the development group, multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that tumor size, tumor ulceration, CT growth pattern and monocyte-to- lymphocyte ratio (MLR) were independent risk factors for gastric GIST with high malignancy potential. The AUC of the model were 0.932 (95% CI 0.890-0.974) and 0.922 (95% CI 0.868-0.977) in the development and validation groups, respectively. The best cutoff value for the development group was 0.184, and the sensitivity and specificity at this value were 0.895 and 0.875, respectively. The calibration curves indicated good agreement between predicted and actual observed outcomes, while the DCA indicated that the nomogram model had clinical application.

CONCLUSIONS

Tumor size, tumor ulceration, CT growth pattern and MLR are independent risk factors for high malignancy potential gastric GIST, and a nomogram model developed based on these factors has a high ability to predict the malignant potential of gastric GIST.

Comparison between the European Randomized Study for Screening of Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) and Prostate Biopsy Collaborative Group (PBCG) risk calculators: Prediction of clinically significant Prostate Cancer risk in a cohort of patients from Argentina

OBJECTIVE

To compare the performance of the risk calculators of the European Randomized Study for Screening of Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) and the Prostate Biopsy Collaborative Group (PBCG) in predicting the risk of presenting clinically significant prostate cancer.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Retrospectively, patients who underwent prostate biopsy at Sanatorio Allende Cerro, Ciudad de Córdoba, Argentina, were identified from January 2018 to December 2021. The probability of having prostate cancer was calculated with the two calculators separately and then the results were compared to establish which of the two performed better. For this, areas under the curve (AUC) were analyzed.

RESULTS

250 patients were included, 140 (56%) presented prostate cancer, of which 92 (65.71%) had clinically significant prostate cancer (Gleason score ≥7). The patients who presented cancer were older, had a higher prostate-specific antigen (PSA) value, and had a smaller prostate size. The AUC to predict the probability of having clinically significant prostate cancer was 0.79 and 0.73 for PBCG-RC and ERSPC-RC respectively (P=0.0084).

CONCLUSION

In this cohort of patients, both prostate cancer risk calculators performed well in predicting clinically significant prostate cancer risk, although the PBCG-RC showed better accuracy.

Relation of plasma neuropeptide-Y with myocardial function and infarct severity in acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Acute myocardial infarction is associated with the release of the co-transmitter neuropeptide-Y (NPY). NPY acts as a potent vasoconstrictor and is associated with microvascular dysfunction after ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). This study comprehensively evaluated the association of plasma NPY with myocardial function and infarct severity, visualized by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging, in STEMI patients revascularized by primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

METHODS

In this observational study, we included 260 STEMI patients enrolled in the prospective MARINA-STEMI (NCT04113356) study. Plasma NPY concentrations were measured by an immunoassay 24h after PCI from peripheral venous blood samples. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), global longitudinal strain (GLS), infarct size (IS) and microvascular obstruction (MVO) were determined using CMR imaging.

RESULTS

Median plasma concentrations of NPY were 70 [interquartile range (IQR):35-115] pg/ml. NPY levels above median were significantly associated with lower LVEF (48%vs.52%, p=0.004), decreased GLS (-8.8%vs.-12.6%, p<0.001) and larger IS (17%vs.13%, p=0.041) in the acute phase after infarction as well as after 4 months (LVEF:50%vs.52%, p=0.030, GLS:-10.5vs.-12.9,p<0.001,IS:13%vs.10%,p=0.011). In addition, NPY levels were significantly related to presence of MVO (58%vs.52%, p=0.041). Moreover, in multivariable linear regression analysis, NPY remained significantly associated with all investigated CMR parameters (LVEF:p<0.001,GLS:p<0.001,IS:p=0.003,MVO:p=0.042) independent of other established clinical variables including high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, pre-interventional TIMI flow 0 and left anterior descending artery as culprit lesion location.

CONCLUSION

High plasma levels of NPY, measured 24h after STEMI, were independently associated with lower LVEF, decreased GLS, larger IS as well as presence of MVO, indicating plasma NPY as a novel clinical risk marker post STEMI.

Predicting Peri-Operative Cardiorespiratory Adverse Events in Children with Idiopathic Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Undergoing Cardiac Catheterization Using Echocardiography: A Cohort Study

General anesthesia in children with idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) carries an increased risk of peri-operative cardiorespiratory complications though risk stratifying individual children pre-operatively remains difficult. We report the incidence and echocardiographic risk factors for adverse events in children with PAH undergoing general anesthesia for cardiac catheterization. Echocardiographic, hemodynamic, and adverse event data from consecutive PAH patients are reported. A multivariable predictive model was developed from echocardiographic variables identified by Bayesian univariable logistic regression. Model performance was reported by area under the curve for receiver operating characteristics (AUCroc) and precision/recall (AUCpr) and a pre-operative scoring system derived (0-100). Ninety-three children underwent 158 cardiac catheterizations with mean age 8.8 ± 4.6 years. Adverse events (n = 42) occurred in 15 patients (16%) during 16 catheterizations (10%) including cardiopulmonary resuscitation (n = 5, 3%), electrocardiographic changes (n = 3, 2%), significant hypotension (n = 2, 1%), stridor (n = 1, 1%), and death (n = 2, 1%). A multivariable model (age, right ventricular dysfunction, and dilatation, pulmonary and tricuspid regurgitation severity, and maximal velocity) was highly predictive of adverse events (AUCroc 0.86, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.00; AUCpr 0.68, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.91; baseline AUCpr 0.10). Pre-operative risk scores were higher in those who had a subsequent adverse event (median 47, IQR 43 to 53) than in those who did not (median 23, IQR 15 to 33). Pre-operative echocardiography informs the risk of peri-operative adverse events and may therefore be useful both for consent and multi-disciplinary care planning.

Relationship between subtype-specific minimal residual disease level and long-term prognosis in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Minimal residual disease (MRD) based risk stratification criteria for specific genetic subtypes remained unclear in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Among 723 children with newly diagnosed ALL treated with the Chinese Children Leukemia Group CCLG-2008 protocol, MRD was assessed at time point 1 (TP1, at the end of induction) and TP2 (before consolidation treatment) and the MRD levels significantly differed in patients with different fusion genes or immunophenotypes (P all < 0.001). Moreover, the prognostic impact of MRD varied by distinct molecular subtypes. We stratified patients in each molecular subtype into two MRD groups based on the results. For patients carrying BCR::ABL1 or KMT2A rearrangements, we classified patients with MRD < 10-2 at both TP1 and TP2 as the low MRD group and the others as the high MRD group. ETV6::RUNX1+ patients with TP1 MRD < 10-3 and TP2 MRD-negative were classified as the low MRD group and the others as the high MRD group. For T-ALL, We defined children with TP1 MRD ≥ 10-3 as the high MRD group and the others as the low MRD group. The 10-year relapse-free survival of low MRD group was significantly better than that of high MRD group. We verified the prognostic impact of the subtype-specific MRD-based stratification in patients treated with the BCH-ALL2003 protocol. In conclusion, the subtype-specific MRD risk stratification may contribute to the precise treatment of childhood ALL.

The Shared Ovary: A Multidisciplinary Discussion With Pediatric and Adolescent Gynecology

Pediatric and adolescent ovarian lesions are common and are frequently managed by both pediatric surgeons and pediatric and adolescent gynecologists. During the 2023 American Academy of Pediatric Section on Surgery meeting, an educational symposium was delivered focusing on various aspects of management of pediatric and adolescent benign and malignant masses, borderline lesions, and fertility options for children and adolescents undergoing cancer therapies. This article highlights the discussion during this symposium.

Globotriaosylsphingosine improves risk stratification of kidney progression in Fabry disease patients

BACKGROUND

Kidney damage is common in patients with Fabry disease (FD), but more accurate information about the risk of progression to kidney failure is needed for clinical decision-making. In particular, FD patients with mild renal involvement often lack timely intervention and treatment. We aimed to utilize a model to predict the risk of renal progression in FD patients.

METHODS

Between November 2011 and November 2019, ERT-naive patients with FD were recruited from three medical centers in China. To assess the risk of a 50% decline in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), Cox proportional hazards models were utilized. The performance of these models was assessed using discrimination, calibration, and reclassification.

RESULTS

A total of 117 individuals were enrolled. The mean follow-up time was 4.8 years, during which 35 patients (29.9 %) progressed to the composite renal outcomes. Male sex, baseline proteinuria, eGFR and globotriaosylsphingosine (Lyso-Gb3) were found to be independent risk factors for kidney progression by the Cox model, based on which a combined model containing those clinical variables and Lyso-Gb3 and clinical models including only clinical indicators were constructed. The two prediction models had relatively good performance, with similar model fit measured by R2 (59.8 % vs. 61.1 %) and AIC (51.54 vs. 50.08) and a slight increase in the C statistic (0.949 vs. 0.951). Calibration curves indicated closer alignment between predicted and actual renal outcomes in the combined model. Furthermore, subgroup analysis revealed that Lyso-Gb3 significantly improved the predictive performance of the combined model for kidney prognosis in low-risk patients with a baseline eGFR over 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 or proteinuria levels less than 1 g/d when compared to the clinical model.

CONCLUSIONS

Lyso-Gb3 improves the prediction of kidney outcomes in FD patients with a low risk of progression, suggesting that these patients may benefit from early intervention to assist in clinical management. These findings need to be externally validated.

Extending the diabetic retinopathy screening intervals in Singapore: methodology and preliminary findings of a cohort study

BACKGROUND

The Diabetic Retinopathy Extended Screening Study (DRESS) aims to develop and validate a new DR/diabetic macular edema (DME) risk stratification model in patients with Type 2 diabetes (DM) to identify low-risk groups who can be safely assigned to biennial or triennial screening intervals. We describe the study methodology, participants' baseline characteristics, and preliminary DR progression rates at the first annual follow-up.

METHODS

DRESS is a 3-year ongoing longitudinal study of patients with T2DM and no or mild non-proliferative DR (NPDR, non-referable) who underwent teleophthalmic screening under the Singapore integrated Diabetic Retinopathy Programme (SiDRP) at four SingHealth Polyclinics. Patients with referable DR/DME (> mild NPDR) or ungradable fundus images were excluded. Sociodemographic, lifestyle, medical and clinical information was obtained from medical records and interviewer-administered questionnaires at baseline. These data are extracted from medical records at 12, 24 and 36 months post-enrollment. Baseline descriptive characteristics stratified by DR severity at baseline and rates of progression to referable DR at 12-month follow-up were calculated.

RESULTS

Of 5,840 eligible patients, 78.3% (n = 4,570, median [interquartile range [IQR] age 61.0 [55-67] years; 54.7% male; 68.0% Chinese) completed the baseline assessment. At baseline, 97.4% and 2.6% had none and mild NPDR (worse eye), respectively. Most participants had hypertension (79.2%) and dyslipidemia (92.8%); and almost half were obese (43.4%, BMI ≥ 27.5 kg/m2). Participants without DR (vs mild DR) reported shorter DM duration, and had lower haemoglobin A1c, triglycerides and urine albumin/creatinine ratio (all p < 0.05). To date, we have extracted 41.8% (n = 1909) of the 12-month follow-up data. Of these, 99.7% (n = 1,904) did not progress to referable DR. Those who progressed to referable DR status (0.3%) had no DR at baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

In our prospective study of patients with T2DM and non-referable DR attending polyclinics, we found extremely low annual DR progression rates. These preliminary results suggest that extending screening intervals beyond 12 months may be viable and safe for most participants, although our 3-year follow up data are needed to substantiate this claim and develop the risk stratification model to identify low-risk patients with T2DM who can be assigned biennial or triennial screening intervals.

Early predictors of clinical deterioration in intermediate-high risk pulmonary embolism: clinical needs, research imperatives, and pathways forward

A subset of intermediate-high risk pulmonary embolism (PE) patients will suffer clinical deterioration in the early hours following the acute event. Current evidence-based guidelines for the management of acute PE have provided limited direction for identification of which intermediate-high risk PE patients will go on to develop haemodynamic decompensation. Furthermore, a paucity of data further hampers guideline recommendations regarding the optimal approach and duration of intensive monitoring, best methods to assess the early response to anticoagulation, and the ideal window for reperfusion therapy, if decompensation threatens. The aim of the present article is to identify the current unmet needs related to the early identification of intermediate-high risk PE patients at higher risk of clinical deterioration and mortality during the early hours after the acute cardiovascular event and suggest some potential strategies to further explore gaps in the literature.

Dynamic assessment of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores for predicting ischemic stroke and major bleeding in atrial fibrillation patients

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Stroke and bleeding risks in atrial fibrillation (AF) are often assessed at baseline to predict outcomes years later. We investigated whether dynamic changes in CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores over time modify risk prediction.

METHODS

We included patients with AF who were stable while taking vitamin K antagonists. During a 6-year follow-up, all ischemic strokes/transient ischemic attacks (TIAs) and major bleeding events were recorded. CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED were recalculated every 2-years and tested for clinical outcomes at 2-year periods.

RESULTS

We included 1361 patients (mean CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED 4.0±1.7 and 2.9±1.2). During the follow-up, 156 (11.5%) patients had an ischemic stroke/TIA and 269 (19.8%) had a major bleeding event. Compared with the baseline CHA2DS2-VASc, the CHA2DS2-VASc recalculated at 2 years had higher predictive ability for ischemic stroke/TIA during the period from 2 to 4 years. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) showed improvements in sensitivity and better reclassification. The CHA2DS2-VASc recalculated at 4 years had better predictive performance than the baseline CHA2DS2-VASc during the period from 4 to 6 years, with an improvement in IDI and an enhancement of the reclassification. The recalculated HAS-BLED at 2-years had higher predictive ability than the baseline score for major bleeding during the period from 2 to 4 years, with significant improvements in sensitivity and reclassification. A slight enhancement in sensitivity was observed with the HAS-BLED score recalculated at 4 years compared with the baseline score.

CONCLUSIONS

In AF patients, stroke and bleeding risks are dynamic and change over time. The CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores should be regularly reassessed, particularly for accurate stroke risk prediction.

Clinical value of a comprehensive clinical- and echocardiography-based risk score on predicting cardiovascular outcomes in ischemic heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction

AIMS

The present study aimed to develop a comprehensive clinical- and echocardiography-based risk score for predicting cardiovascular (CV) adverse outcomes in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF) and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF).

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 1341 hospitalized patients with IHF and LVEF < 50% at our hospital from 2009 to 2017. Cox regression models and nomogram were utilized to develop a comprehensive prediction model (C&E risk score) for CV mortality and CV-related events (hospitalization or death).

RESULTS

Over a median 26-month follow-up, CV mortality and CV events rates were 17.4% and 40.9%, respectively. The C&E risk score, incorporating both clinical and echocardiographic factors, demonstrated superior predictive performance for CV outcomes compared to models using only clinical or echocardiographic factors. Internal validation confirmed the stable predictive ability of the C&E risk score, with an AUC of 0.740 (95% CI 0.709-0.775, P < 0.001) for CV mortality and an AUC of 0.678 (95% CI 0.642-0.696, P < 0.001) for CV events. Patients were categorized into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk based on the C&E risk score, with progressively increasing CV mortality (5.3% vs. 14.6% vs. 31.9%, P < 0.001) and CV events (28.8% vs. 38.2% vs. 55.0%, P < 0.001). External validation also confirmed the risk score's prognostic efficacy within additional IHF patient datasets.

CONCLUSION

This study establishes and validates the novel C&E risk score as a reliable tool for predicting CV outcomes in IHF patients with reduced LVEF. The risk score holds potential for enhancing risk stratification and guiding clinical decision-making for high-risk patients.

Adherence to heart failure treatment in patients with peripartum cardiomyopathy

AIMS

Peripartum cardiomyopathy (PPCM) is characterized by left ventricular (LV) dysfunction developing towards the end of pregnancy or in the first months postpartum. Although about 60% of women with PPCM (the majority of which are prescribed evidence based heart failure [HF] medications) show LV recovery within 6 to 12 months, others remain with persistently impaired LV function. Poor adherence to medical therapy represents a major cause of avoidable hospitalizations, disability, and death in other cardiovascular conditions. In this study, we aimed to determine drug adherence to HF therapy among women with PPCM and to identify possible associations between drug adherence and LV recovery, functional status and psychological well-being.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In this single-centre, prospective, observational study, we included 36 consecutive women with PPCM. Adherence to HF treatment was assessed by (i) verifying the collection of pharmacy refills and (ii) using liquid chromatography high-resolution mass spectrometry (LC-HRMS). Participants were thereby classified as 'adherent' (i.e. all prescribed HF drugs were detectable by LC-HRMS), 'partially adherent' (i.e. at least one prescribed drug detectable) or 'non-adherent' (i.e. none of the prescribed drugs detectable). Health state index scores were assessed by EQ-5D-5L and HADS-A/D (for anxiety/depression). Patients' median age was 32.4 years (IQR 27.6-36.1). At the adherence visit (which occurred at a median of 16 months [IQR 5-45] after PPCM diagnosis), prescription included beta-blockers (77.8%), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin II receptor blockers (75%), mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (47.2%) and loop diuretics (95.2%). Less than two thirds of patients (63.9%) collected all their pharmacy refills in the 6 months prior to adherence visit. According to LC-HRMS, 23.5% participants were classified as adherent, 53.0% as partially adherent, and 23.5% as non-adherent. Adherence was associated with significantly lower LVEDD at follow-up (47 mm [IQR 46-52), vs. 56 mm [IQR 49-64] with partial adherence, and 62 mm [IQR 55-64] with non-adherence, P = 0.022), and higher LVEF at follow-up (60% [IQR 41-65]), vs. partially adherence (46% [IQR 34-50]) and non-adherence (41.0% [IQR 29-47], P = 014). Adherent patients had a lower overall EQ- 5D score (5.5 [IQR 5-7.5], vs. 6 [IQR 5-7] in partially adherent, and 10 [IQR 8-15] in non-adherent patients, P = 0.032) suggestive of a better self-rated health status.

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence to HF therapy was associated with favourable LV reverse remodelling in PPCM and better self-rated health status. Our study highlights the importance of drug adherence for functional recovery. Drug adherence should be an important component of patient communication and specific interventions in PPCM.

Solitary fibrous tumor occurring at unusual sites: A clinico-pathological series of 31 cases with emphasis on its wide morphological spectrum

Solitary fibrous tumor (SFT) is a relatively rare mesenchymal fibroblastic tumor occurring most commonly in adults with no gender predilection. Although the pathological diagnosis of SFT is usually straightforward, some difficulties may occasionally arise mainly due to the wide morphological spectrum exhibited by this tumor. In the present paper we aimed to evaluate the unusual clinicopathological features in a series of 31 SFTs arising from parenchymal organs, superficial soft tissues and deep soft tissues. Our results emphasize that SFTs may occur anywhere, including unusual sites such as periosteum of the thoracic spine, mesorectal tissue, hepatic hilum, paravescial space, kidney and breast. Moreover, a wide morphological spectrum was observed in tumors included in our series. The most striking morphological features observed included: extensive lipomatous component, myxoid stromal changes, epithelioid cell component, metaplastic mature bone, neurofibroma-like, myxofibrosarcoma-like and pseudoalveolar-like areas. Additionally, multinucleated giant cells and sarcomatous dedifferentiation were also identified. Our paper emphasizes that SFT may occur in unusual anatomical locations and exhibits a wide morphological spectrum. Pathologists must be aware of these features to avoid confusion with other benign and malignant neoplasms that may show overlapping morphological features.

Prediction of Prostate Cancer Risk Stratification Based on A Nonlinear Transformation Stacking Learning Strategy

PURPOSE

Prostate cancer (PCa) is an epithelial malignancy that originates in the prostate gland and is generally categorized into low, intermediate, and high-risk groups. The primary diagnostic indicator for PCa is the measurement of serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) values. However, reliance on PSA levels can result in false positives, leading to unnecessary biopsies and an increased risk of invasive injuries. Therefore, it is imperative to develop an efficient and accurate method for PCa risk stratification. Many recent studies on PCa risk stratification based on clinical data have employed a binary classification, distinguishing between low to intermediate and high risk. In this paper, we propose a novel machine learning (ML) approach utilizing a stacking learning strategy for predicting the tripartite risk stratification of PCa.

METHODS

Clinical records, featuring attributes selected using the lasso method, were utilized with 5 ML classifiers. The outputs of these classifiers underwent transformation by various nonlinear transformers and were then concatenated with the lasso-selected features, resulting in a set of new features. A stacking learning strategy, integrating different ML classifiers, was developed based on these new features.

RESULTS

Our proposed approach demonstrated superior performance, achieving an accuracy of 0.83 and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value of 0.88 in a dataset comprising 197 PCa patients with 42 clinical characteristics.

CONCLUSION

This study aimed to improve clinicians' ability to rapidly assess PCa risk stratification while reducing the burden on patients. This was achieved by using artificial intelligence-related technologies as an auxiliary method for diagnosing PCa.

Monitoring of Sarcoidosis

This article focuses on the monitoring of pulmonary sarcoidosis. The monitoring of sarcoidosis is, in part, focused on serial change in major organ involvement but also includes diagnostic re-evaluation and review of change in quality of life. Recent criteria for progression of fibrotic interstitial lung disease are adapted to pulmonary sarcoidosis. The frequency and nature of monitoring are discussed, integrating baseline risk stratification and strategic treatment goals. Individual variables used to identify changes in pulmonary disease severity are discussed with a focus on their flaws and the need for a multidimensional approach. Other key monitoring issues are covered briefly.

More than 30 years of Brugada syndrome: a critical appraisal of achievements and open issues

Over the last three decades, what is referred to as Brugada syndrome (BrS) has developed from a clinical observation of initially a few cases of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in the absence of structural heart disease with ECG signs of "atypical right bundle brunch block" to a predominantly electrocardiographic, and to a lesser extent genetic, diagnosis. Today, BrS is diagnosed in patients without overt structural heart disease and a spontaneous Brugada type 1 ECG pattern regardless of symptoms. The diagnosis of BrS is less clear in those with an only transient or drug-induced type 1 Brugada pattern, but should be considered in the presence of an arrhythmic syncope, family history of BrS, or family history of sudden death. In addition to survived cardiac arrest, syncope is probably the single most decisive risk marker for future arrhythmias. For asymptomatic BrS, risk stratification remains challenging. General recommendations to lower the risk in BrS include avoidance of drugs/agents known to induce and/or increase right precordial ST-segment elevation, including treatment of fever with antipyretic drugs. Several ECG markers that have been associated with an increased risk of SCD have been incorporated into a recently published risk score for BrS. The aim of this article is to provide an overview of the status of risk stratification and to illustrate open issues und gaps in evidence in BrS.

Prognostic implications of premature ventricular contractions and non-sustained ventricular tachycardia in light-chain cardiac amyloidosis

AIMS

Premature ventricular contractions (PVC) and non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) are commonly observed in light chain cardiac amyloidosis (AL-CA), but their association with prognosis is still unclear. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of PVCs and NSVT in patients with moderate-to-advanced AL-CA.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We retrospectively included patients with AL-CA at modified 2004 Mayo stages II-IIIb between February 2014 and December 2020. Twenty-four-hour Holter recordings were assessed on admission. The outcomes included (i) new onset of adverse ventricular arrhythmia (VA) or sudden cardiac death (SCD) and (ii) cardiac death during follow-up. Of the 143 patients studied (60.41 ± 11.06 years, male 64.34%), 132 (92.31%) had presence of PVC, and 50 (34.97%) had NSVT on Holter. Twelve (8.4%) patients died in hospital and 131 patients were followed up (median 24.4 months), among whom 71 patients had cardiac death, and 15 underwent adverse VA/SCD. NSVT [hazard ratio (HR): 13.57, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.06-60.18, P < 0.001], log-transformed PVC counts (HR: 1.46, 95%CI: 1.15-1.86, P = 0.002) and PVC burden (HR: 1.43 95%CI:1.14-1.80, P = 0.002) were predictive of new onset of adverse VA/SCD. The highest tertile of PVC counts (HR: 2.33, 95%CI: 1.27-4.28, P = 0.006) and PVC burden (HR: 2.58, 95%CI: 1.42-4.69, P = 0.002), rather than NSVT (HR: 1.16, 95%CI: 0.67-1.98, P = 0.603), was associated with cardiac death. Higher PVC counts/burden provided incremental value on modified 2004 Mayo stage in predicting cardiac death, with C index increasing from 0.681 to 0.712 and 0.717, respectively (P values <0.05).

CONCLUSION

PVC count, burden, and NSVT significantly correlated with adverse VA/SCD during follow-up in patients with AL-CA. Higher PVC counts/burdens added incremental value for predicting cardiac death.

Comprehensive biomechanical and anatomical atherosclerotic plaque metrics predict major adverse cardiovascular events: A new tool for clinical decision making

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Anatomical imaging alone of coronary atherosclerotic plaques is insufficient to identify risk of future adverse events and guide management of non-culprit lesions. Low endothelial shear stress (ESS) and high plaque structural stress (PSS) are associated with events, but individually their predictive value is insufficient for risk prediction. We determined whether combining multiple complementary, biomechanical and anatomical plaque characteristics improves outcome prediction sufficiently to inform clinical decision-making.

METHODS

We examined baseline ESS, ESS gradient (ESSG), PSS, and PSS heterogeneity index (HI), and plaque burden in 22 lesions that developed subsequent events and 64 control lesions that remained quiescent from the PROSPECT study.

RESULTS

86 fibroatheromas were analysed from 67 patients. Lesions with events showed higher PSS HI (0.32 vs. 0.24, p<0.001), lower local ESS (0.56Pa vs. 0.91Pa, p = 0.007), and higher ESSG (3.82 Pa/mm vs. 1.96 Pa/mm, p = 0.007), while high PSS HI (hazard ratio [HR] 3.9, p = 0.006), high ESSG (HR 3.4, p = 0.007) and plaque burden>70 % (HR 2.6, p = 0.02) were independent outcome predictors in multivariate analysis. Combining low ESS, high ESSG, and high PSS HI gave both high positive predictive value (80 %), which increased further combined with plaque burden>70 %, and negative predictive value (81.6 %). Low ESS, high ESSG, and high PSS HI co-localised spatially within 1 mm in lesions with events, and importantly, this cluster was distant from the minimum lumen area site.

CONCLUSIONS

Combining complementary biomechanical and anatomical metrics significantly improves risk-stratification of individual coronary lesions. If confirmed from larger prospective studies, our results may inform targeted revascularisation vs. conservative management strategies.

Clinical use of the manchester triage system in patients with dizziness - An observational study in the emergency department

INTRODUCTION

Dizziness is a common symptom with diverse causes, including ear-nose-throat, internal, neurological, or psychiatric origins. While for most parts treatable in nonemergency settings, it can also signal time-critical conditions, like an unnoticed stroke, requiring prompt diagnosis and treatment to prevent lasting harm or death. The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity of the Manchester Triage System in classifying patients presenting with dizziness based on final diagnoses and patient outcomes, as no specific flow chart exists for this symptom in the MTS.

METHODS

Monocentric, retrospective observational study. To test the validity of the MTS in the triage of dizziness patients, the treatment level was used as a surrogate parameter. We grouped the patients into outpatient, normal ward and intermediate care/intensive care unit (IMC/ICU) patients. Furthermore, we analyzed the dizziness patients in subgroups based on the origin of their dizziness to identify potential improvements for the MTS. Patients with dizziness and stroke, who represent the most vulnerable group of dizziness patients, were also evaluated separately.

RESULTS

During the observation period, 2958 patients presented at the ED with the symptom dizziness and 52 017 without, who formed the reference group. When examining the relationship between triage level and subsequent treatment level, a larger deviation is observed compared to the reference group. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) regarding hospital admission in general showed an area under the curve (AUC) in the subgroup with dizziness due to a central nervous system causes (n=838) of 0.69 (95% CI 0.65 - 0.72) and in the subgroup of dizziness by other organic cause (n=901), an AUC of 0.64 (95% CI 0.60 - 0.68). The reference group had an AUC 0.75 (95% CI 0.75 - 0.76) here. In relation to admission to IMC/ICU, the results were similar. The sensitivity of the MTS in terms of an adequate initial assessment of dizziness patients with stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) was 0.39, the specificity was 0.91 (reference group sensitivity 0.72, specificity 0.82).

CONCLUSION

In terms of construct validity, the present study revealed that the use of MTS as a priority triage assessment tool was found to be less accurate in emergency patients with dizziness, particularly those diagnosed with stroke/TIA, when compared to other emergency patients.

Optimal PHASES Scoring for Risk Stratification of Surgically Treated Unruptured Aneurysms

OBJECTIVE

The PHASES (Population, Hypertension, Age, Size, Earlier subarachnoid hemorrhage, Site) score was developed to facilitate risk stratification for management of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs). This study aimed to identify the optimal PHASES score cutoff for predicting neurologic outcomes in patients with surgically treated aneurysms.

METHODS

All patients who underwent microneurosurgical treatment for UIA at a large quaternary center from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2020, were retrospectively reviewed. Inclusion criteria included a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of ≤2 at admission. The primary outcome was 1-year mRS score, with a "poor" neurologic outcome defined as an mRS score >2.

RESULTS

In total, 375 patients were included in the analysis. The mean (SD) PHASES score for the entire study population was 4.47 (2.67). Of 375 patients, 116 (31%) had a PHASES score ≥6, which was found to maximize prediction of poor neurologic outcome. Patients with PHASES scores ≥6 had significantly higher rates of poor neurologic outcome than patients with PHASES scores <6 at discharge (58 [50%] vs. 90 [35%], P = 0.005) and follow-up (20 [17%] vs. 18 [6.9%], P = 0.002). After adjusting for age, Charlson Comorbidity Index score, nonsaccular aneurysm, and aneurysm size, PHASES score ≥6 remained a significant predictor of poor neurologic outcome at follow-up (odds ratio, 2.75; 95% confidence interval, 1.42-5.36, P = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

In this retrospective analysis, a PHASES score ≥6 was associated with significantly greater proportions of poor outcome, suggesting that awareness of this threshold in PHASES scoring could be useful in risk stratification and UIA management.

Risk stratification of thyroid nodules: Assessing the suitability of ChatGPT for text-based analysis

PURPOSE

Accurate risk stratification of thyroid nodules is essential for optimal patient management. This study aimed to assess the suitability of ChatGPT for risk stratification of thyroid nodules using a text-based evaluation.

METHODS

A dataset was compiled comprising 50 anonymized clinical reports and associated risk assessments for thyroid nodules. The Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer (ChatGPT) was used to classify sonographic patterns in accordance with the Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (TI-RADS). The model's performance was assessed using various criteria, including sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. A comparative analysis was conducted, evaluating the model against investigator-based risk stratification as well as histology.

RESULTS

With an overall agreement rate of 42 % in comparison with examiner-based evaluation (TI-RADS 1-5), the results show that ChatGPT has moderate potential for predicting the risk of malignancy in thyroid nodules using text-based reports. The chatbot model achieved a sensitivity of 86.7 %, a specificity of 10.7 %, and an overall accuracy of 68 % when distinguishing between low-risk (TI-RADS 2 and 3) and high-risk (TI-RADS 4 and 5) categories. Interrater reliability was calculated with a Cohen's kappa of 0.686.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the potential of ChatGPT in assisting clinicians with risk stratification of thyroid nodules. The results suggest that ChatGPT can facilitate personalized treatment decisions, although the agreement rate is still low. Further research and validation studies are necessary to establish the clinical applicability and generalizability of ChatGPT in routine practice. The integration of ChatGPT into clinical workflows has the potential to enhance thyroid nodule risk assessment and improve patient care.

A multicentre observational study to investigate feasibility of a direct oral penicillin challenge in de-labelling 'low risk' patients with penicillin allergy by non-allergy healthcare professionals (SPACE study): Implications for healthcare systems

OBJECTIVE

The huge burden of inaccurate penicillin allergy labels (PALs) is an important driver of antimicrobial resistance. This is magnified by insufficient allergy specialists and lack of 'point-of-care' tests. We investigated the feasibility of non-allergy healthcare professionals (HCPs) delivering direct oral penicillin challenges (DPCs) for penicillin allergy de-labelling.

METHODS

This prospective observational study was conducted in three hospitals in England across three settings (acute medical, pre-surgical and haematology-oncology). Patients with a PAL were screened and stratified as low risk/high risk. Low risk patients (non-immune mediated symptoms, benign rash, tolerated amoxicillin since and family history) underwent a DPC.

RESULTS

N = 2257 PALs were screened, 1054 were eligible; 643 were approached, 373 declined, 270 consented and 259 risk stratified (low risk = 155; high risk = 104). One hundred and twenty-six low risk patients underwent DPC, 122 (96.8%) were de-labelled with no serious allergic reactions. Conversion rate from screening-to-consent was 12% [3.3% and 17.9% in acute and elective settings respectively; odds ratios for consent were 3.42 (p < 0.001) and 5.53 (p < 0.001) in haematology-oncology and pre-surgical setting respectively. Common reasons for failure to progress in the study included difficulty in reaching patients, clinical instability/medical reasons, lacking capacity to consent and psychological factors.

INTERPRETATION

DPCs can be delivered by non-allergy HCPs. A high proportion of patients with PALs did not progress in the study pathway. Strategies to deliver DPC at optimal points of the care pathway are needed to enhance uptake. Elective settings offer greater opportunities than acute settings for DPC. The safety and simplicity of DPCs lends itself to adoption by healthcare systems beyond the UK, including in resource-limited settings.

Predictive value of heart rate variability and electrochemical skin conductance measurements for cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy persistence in type 2 diabetes and prediabetes: A 3-year follow-up study

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to explore risk stratification approaches for cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy (CAN) in individuals with prediabetes and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) over a three-year follow-up period.

METHODS

Participants underwent evaluations of autonomic function encompassing cardiovascular autonomic reflex tests (CARTs), baroreflex sensitivity (BRS), heart rate variability (HRV) in time domains (standard deviation of all normal RR intervals (SDNN)) and frequency domains (high frequency/low frequency ratio), and electrochemical skin conductance (ESC). The diagnosis of CAN relied on abnormal CART results. Subjects were categorized into 4 groups, based on their assessment of cardiac autonomic function at 3-year follow-up, relative to the presence or absence of CAN at baseline assessment: Persistent absence of CAN; Resolution of CAN; Progression to CAN; and Persistent CAN.

RESULTS

Participants with T2DM/prediabetes (n = 91/7) were categorized as: Persistent absence of CAN (n = 25), Resolution of CAN (n = 10), Progression to CAN (n = 18), and Persistent CAN (n = 45) groups. The Persistent absence of CAN group showed significant associations with SDNN. The Resolution of CAN group exhibited notable associations with mean HbA1C (follow-up), while the Progression to CAN group displayed a significant link with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate. The Persistent CAN group demonstrated significant associations with SDNN and Sudoscan CAN risk score. Screening recommendations involve biennial to annual assessments based on risk levels, aiding in CAN detection and subsequent comprehensive and time-intensive autonomic function tests for confirmation. The study's findings offer improved risk categorization approaches for detecting CAN, which has relevance for shaping public health strategies.

Development and evaluation of nomograms and risk stratification systems to predict the overall survival and cancer-specific survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common type of primary liver cancer, and patients with HCC have a poor prognosis and low survival rates. Establishing a prognostic nomogram is important for predicting the survival of patients with HCC, as it helps to improve the patient's prognosis. This study aimed to develop and evaluate nomograms and risk stratification to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in HCC patients. Data from 10,302 patients with initially diagnosed HCC were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2017. Patients were randomly divided into the training and validation set. Kaplan-Meier survival, LASSO regression, and Cox regression analysis were conducted to select the predictors of OS. Competing risk analysis, LASSO regression, and Cox regression analysis were conducted to select the predictors of CSS. The validation of the nomograms was performed using the concordance index (C-index), the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Net Reclassification Index (NRI), Discrimination Improvement (IDI), the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analyses (DCAs). The results indicated that factors including age, grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, surgery to lymph node (LN), Alpha-Fetal Protein (AFP), and tumor size were independent predictors of OS, whereas grade, T stage, surgery, AFP, tumor size, and distant lymph node metastasis were independent predictors of CSS. Based on these factors, predictive models were built and virtualized by nomograms. The C-index for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were 0.788, 0.792, and 0.790. The C-index for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS were 0.803, 0.808, and 0.806. AIC, BIC, NRI, and IDI suggested that nomograms had an excellent predictive performance with no significant overfitting. The calibration curves showed good consistency of OS and CSS between the actual observation and nomograms prediction, and the DCA showed great clinical usefulness of the nomograms. The risk stratification of OS and CSS was built that could perfectly classify HCC patients into three risk groups. Our study developed nomograms and a corresponding risk stratification system predicting the OS and CSS of HCC patients. These tools can assist in patient counseling and guiding treatment decision making.