A meta-analysis of diabetes risk prediction models applied to prediabetes screening

AIM

To provide a systematic overview of diabetes risk prediction models used for prediabetes screening to promote primary prevention of diabetes.

METHODS

The Cochrane, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) databases were searched for a comprehensive search period of 30 August 30, 2023, and studies involving diabetes prediction models for screening prediabetes risk were included in the search. The Quality Assessment Checklist for Diagnostic Studies (QUADAS-2) tool was used for risk of bias assessment and Stata and R software were used to pool model effect sizes.

RESULTS

A total of 29 375 articles were screened, and finally 20 models from 24 studies were included in the systematic review. The most common predictors were age, body mass index, family history of diabetes, history of hypertension, and physical activity. Regarding the indicators of model prediction performance, discrimination and calibration were only reported in 79.2% and 4.2% of studies, respectively, resulting in significant heterogeneity in model prediction results, which may be related to differences between model predictor combinations and lack of important methodological information.

CONCLUSIONS

Numerous models are used to predict diabetes, and as there is an association between prediabetes and diabetes, researchers have also used such models for screening the prediabetic population. Although it is a new clinical practice to explore, differences in glycaemic metabolic profiles, potential complications, and methods of intervention between the two populations cannot be ignored, and such differences have led to poor validity and accuracy of the models. Therefore, there is no recommended optimal model, and it is not recommended to use existing models for risk identification in alternative populations; future studies should focus on improving the clinical relevance and predictive performance of existing models.

Longitudinal patterns of intermittent oral corticosteroid therapy for asthma in the United Kingdom

Background

Increasing frequency of intermittent oral corticosteroid (OCS) prescription and cumulative OCS exposure increase the risk of OCS-related adverse outcomes.

Objective

We sought to describe the evolution and trajectory of intermittent OCS prescription patterns in patients with asthma and investigate risk factors independently associated with transitioning to a frequent prescription pattern.

Methods

This historical cohort study included patients with active asthma managed in UK primary care and included in the Optimum Patient Care Research Database (OPCRD; opcrd.co.uk). Intermittent OCS prescription patterns were categorized as sporadic, infrequent, moderately frequent, or frequent. Prescription pattern sequences were described for those who had a frequent sequence in their final year of prescribing. We examined associations between OCS prescription pattern and the hazard of transitioning into a frequent intermittent OCS prescription pattern using multivariable Cox regression with a 10-year look-back period.

Results

Of 105,229 patients with intermittent OCS prescriptions, 57.1% (n = 60,083) had a frequent OCS prescription pattern at some point. Irrespective of baseline pattern, most patients transitioned to frequent prescription during the look back. The strongest risk factors were a more frequent prescription pattern at the start of look-back period, a lower percentage peak expiratory flow rate, and higher Global Initiative for Asthma treatment step. Older age, female sex, obesity, and active smoking were also associated with a higher risk of transitioning.

Conclusion

Our findings help identify those most at risk of transitioning to frequent intermittent OCS receipt and encourage earlier intervention with OCS-sparing treatments.

Comparison of prediction models for cardiovascular and mortality risk in people with type 2 diabetes: An external validation in 23 685 adults included in the UK Biobank

AIMS

To validate cardiovascular risk prediction models for individuals with diabetes using the UK Biobank in order to assess their applicability.

METHODS

We externally validated 19 cardiovascular risk scores from seven risk prediction models (Chang et al., Framingham, University of Hong Kong-Singapore [HKU-SG], Li et al, RECODe [risk equations for complications of type 2 diabetes], SCORE [Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation] and the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 [UKPDS OM2]), identified from systematic reviews, using UK Biobank data from 2006 to 2021 (n = 23 685; participant age 40-71 years, 63.5% male). We evaluated performance by assessing the discrimination and calibration of the models for the endpoints of mortality, cardiovascular mortality, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, and ischaemic heart disease.

RESULTS

Over a total of 269 430 person-years of follow-up (median 11.89 years), the models showed low-to-moderate discrimination performance on external validation (concordance indices [c-indices] 0.50-0.71). Most models had low calibration with overprediction of the observed risk. RECODe outperformed other models across four comparable endpoints for discrimination: all-cause mortality (c-index 0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65-0.69), congestive heart failure (c-index 0.71, 95% CI 0.69-0.72), myocardial infarction (c-index 0.67, 95% CI 0.65-0.68); and stroke (c-index 0.65, 95% CI 0.62-0.68), and for calibration (except for all-cause mortality). The UKPDS OM2 had comparable performance to RECODe for all-cause mortality (c-index 0.67, 95% CI 0.66-0.69) and cardiovascular mortality (c-index 0.71, 95% CI 0.70-0.73), but worse performance for other outcomes. The models performed better for younger participants and somewhat better for non-White ethnicities. Models developed from non-Western datasets showed worse performance in our UK-based validation set.

CONCLUSIONS

The RECODe model led to better risk estimations in this predominantly White European population. Further validation is needed in non-Western populations to assess generalizability to other populations.

Association between visual impairment and suicide: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Visual impairment severely impacts the life of the patients. In this study, we systematically reviewed studies on the potential relationship between visual impairment and suicidal behaviour, and conducted meta-analyses on the risk estimates. We searched 11 literature databases on 20 October 2022 and identified a total of 10 eligible studies with 5.8 million participants. Suicide behaviour was investigated according to three domains: suicide ideation, suicide attempt and suicide death. In the 10 eligible studies, seven reported data on suicide ideation, five reported data on suicide attempt, and three reported data on suicide death. All summary estimates extracted for use in the meta-analyses were adjusted estimates of association since we acknowledged that depression as well as other confounding factors may play an important role. We found that visual impairment was a significant risk factor of suicide ideation (OR 1.83; 95% CI: 1.40-2.40; p = 0.000012), suicide attempt (OR 2.62; 95% CI: 1.29-5.31; p = 0.0077) and suicide death (OR 7.00; 95% CI: 2.30-21.4; p = 0.000063). These high increases in risk of suicide from visual impairment underscore the importance of eye health on the overall mental health, and the potential devastating consequences of insufficient access to eye care, lack of treatment possibilities for any reason or low political priority of eye care.

Revisiting Cardiovascular Benefits of Blood Pressure Reduction in Primary and Secondary Prevention: Focus on Targets and Residual Risk-A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous meta-analyses resurrected the debated statement "the lower, the better" following blood pressure (BP)-lowering treatment. We investigated the benefits of BP-lowering treatment at different BP targets by prevention category.

METHODS

The meta-analysis protocol was registered at the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42022379249). The database included 115 BP-lowering or comparison trials from patients with (n=241 089) or without (n=198 937) previous cardiovascular events. Prevention disease groups were stratified by in-treatment achieved BP, drug class versus placebo, and drug class versus other classes. Risk ratios and 95% CIs of major adverse cardiovascular events were calculated.

RESULTS

Following a standard (10/5 mm Hg) BP reduction, major adverse cardiovascular event relative risk reductions were not different between prevention groups (primary, 25% [95% CI, 18%-31%]; secondary, 28% [95% CI, 20%-37%]). For achieved systolic BP of at least 140 mm Hg, between 130 and 140 mm Hg, and <130 mm Hg (nadir, 125 mm Hg), (1) risk ratios of major adverse cardiovascular events and absolute risk reductions were not different between prevention groups across systolic BP strata, and (2) residual risk, though 4.1× greater in secondary than primary prevention, decreased in primary prevention from higher to lower systolic BP targets. The effect of separate drugs versus others on the primary outcome was not different between prevention groups.

CONCLUSIONS

BP-lowering treatment benefits did not differ by prevention group to a nadir of 125 mm Hg for systolic BP. Although residual risk in secondary prevention is higher than in primary prevention, it gradually decreases at progressively lower systolic BP targets in primary prevention.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/; Unique identifier: CRD42022379249.

Epidemiology of seropositive myasthenia gravis in Sardinia: A population-based study in the district of Sassari

INTRODUCTION/AIMS

The global incidence and prevalence of myasthenia gravis (MG) range between 6-31/million and 10-37/100,000, respectively. Sardinia is a high-risk region for different immune-mediated disorders, but the epidemiology of MG remains unclear. We determined the epidemiology of MG with acetylcholine receptor (AChR)-immunoglobulin G (IgG) and muscle-specific tyrosine kinase (MuSK)-IgG in the district of Sassari (North-Western Sardinia; population, 325,288).

METHODS

From the laboratory of the University Hospital of Sassari (reference for AChR/MuSK-IgG testing in Sardinia since 1998) and the main neurology units in Sardinia, we retrospectively identified MG patients with (1) AChR-IgG and/or MuSK-IgG positivity by radioimmunoprecipitation assay; and (2) residency in the district of Sassari. Incidence (January 2010-December 2019) and prevalence (December 31, 2019) were calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 202 patients were included (incident, 107; prevalent, 180). Antibody specificities were AChR (n = 187 [93%]) and MuSK (n = 15 [7%]). The crude MG incidence (95% confidence interval) was 32.6 (26.8-39.2)/million, while prevalence was 55.3 (47.7-63.9)/100,000. After age-standardization to the world population, incidence decreased to 18.4 (14.3-22.5)/million, while prevalence decreased to 31.6 (26.1-37.0)/100,000. Among incident cases, age strata (years) at MG onset were: <18 (2%), 18-49 (14%), 50-64 (21%), and ≥65 (63%).

DISCUSSION

Sardinia is a high-risk region for MG, with a prevalence that exceeds the European threshold for rare disease. Identification of the environmental and genetic determinants of this risk may improve our understanding of disease pathophysiology.

Acceptability of virtual psychiatric consultations for routine follow-ups post COVID-19 pandemic for people with intellectual disabilities: cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

After the rapid implementation of digital health services during the COVID-19 pandemic, a paucity of research exists about the suitability of remote consulting in people with intellectual disabilities and their carers, particularly for neuropsychiatric reviews.

AIM

This study examines when remote neuropsychiatric routine consulting is suitable for this population.

METHOD

A survey was conducted of people with intellectual disabilities and their carers, examining their preference between face-to-face and video consultations for ongoing neuropsychiatric reviews within a rural countywide intellectual disability service in Cornwall, England (population: 538 000). The survey was sent to all adults with intellectual disabilities open to the service on 30 July 2022, closing on 30 September 2022. Participants were asked to provide responses on 11 items predesigned and co-produced between clinicians and experts by experience. The entire service caseload of people had White ethnicity, reflecting the ethnic demographics of Cornwall. Responses received without consent were excluded from the study dataset.

RESULTS

Of 271 eligible participants, 119 responses were received, 104 of whom consented to having their anonymised data used for research analysis. There were no significant differences between preferences and age and gender variables. There was no statistically significant difference regarding preference for the reintroduction of face-to-face appointments (52.0%) compared with video consultations (48.0%). Travel distance (>10 miles) to the clinical setting was important but did not outweigh benefits for those preferring a face-to-face appointment.

CONCLUSIONS

This study offers insights into the factors that influence preferences about what type of neuropsychiatric appointment is most suitable for people with intellectual disabilities.

Shared risk and shared responsibility: the ethics of male contraceptives

INTRODUCTION

Efforts to develop reversible male contraceptives analogous to female oral contraceptives are underway and may be introduced in the next decade. The advent of novel male contraceptives provides an opportunity for an ethical reformulation of the contraceptive paradigm given the relational, rather than individual, nature of sexual relationships, and family planning. For individuals in any sexual relationship that could result in pregnancy, issues of reproductive autonomy, freedom, equality in reproductive decision-making and risks-both of side effects and of unintended pregnancies-are significant. Historically, however, women have been attributed the greatest responsibilities simultaneously with the most restrictions on their freedom of choice and access to reproductive care.

OBJECTIVES

In this paper, we extend our prior "shared risk" model of male contraception to one of "shared risk and responsibility" to ethically inform this discourse.

CONCLUSIONS

This updated framework more fully captures the complexity of this novel technology and may be of use to regulatory and legal agencies grappling with an intervention that poses medical risks to the member of the relationship who does not face risks of becoming pregnant.

Association Between Polymorphisms in DNA Damage Repair Pathway Genes and Female Breast Cancer Risk

Breast cancer risk have been discussed to be associated with polymorphisms in genes as well as abnormal DNA damage repair function. This study aims to assess the relationship between genes single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) related to DNA damage repair and female breast cancer risk in Chinese population. A case-control study containing 400 patients and 400 healthy controls was conducted. Genotype was identified using the sequence MassARRAY method and expression of estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER-2) in tumor tissues was analyzed by immunohistochemistry assay. The results revealed that ATR rs13091637 decreased breast cancer risk influenced by ER, PR (CT/TT vs. CC: adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 1.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-2.27, p = 0.032; CT/TT vs. CC: adjusted OR = 1.63, 95%CI: 1.14-2.35, p = 0.008) expression. Stratified analysis revealed that PALB2 rs16940342 increased breast cancer risk in response to menstrual status (AG/GG vs. AA: adjusted OR = 1.72, 95%CI: 1.13-2.62, p = 0.011) and age of menarche (AG/GG vs. AA: adjusted OR = 1.54, 95%CI: 1.03-2.31, p = 0.037), whereas ATM rs611646 and Ku70 rs132793 were associated with reduced breast cancer risk influenced by menarche (GA/AA vs. GG: adjusted OR = 0.50, 95%CI: 0.30-0.95, p = 0.033). In a summary, PALB2 rs16940342, ATR rs13091637, ATM rs611646, and Ku70 rs132793 were associated with breast cancer risk.

Preeclampsia Onset, Days to Delivery, and Autism Spectrum Disorders in Offspring: Clinical Birth Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Maternal preeclampsia is associated with a risk of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) in offspring. However, it is unknown whether the increased ASD risk associated with preeclampsia is due to preeclampsia onset or clinical management of preeclampsia after onset, as clinical expectant management of preeclampsia allows pregnant women with this complication to remain pregnant for potentially weeks depending on the onset and severity. Identifying the risk associated with preeclampsia onset and exposure provides evidence to support the care of high-risk pregnancies and reduce adverse effects on offspring.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to fill the knowledge gap by assessing the ASD risk in children associated with the gestational age of preeclampsia onset and the number of days from preeclampsia onset to delivery.

METHODS

This retrospective population-based clinical cohort study included 364,588 mother-child pairs of singleton births between 2001 and 2014 in a large integrated health care system in Southern California. Maternal social demographic and pregnancy health data, as well as ASD diagnosis in children by the age of 5 years, were extracted from electronic medical records. Cox regression models were used to assess hazard ratios (HRs) of ASD risk in children associated with gestational age of the first occurrence of preeclampsia and the number of days from first occurrence to delivery.

RESULTS

Preeclampsia occurred in 16,205 (4.4%) out of 364,588 pregnancies; among the 16,205 pregnancies, 2727 (16.8%) first occurred at <34 weeks gestation, 4466 (27.6%) first occurred between 34 and 37 weeks, and 9012 (55.6%) first occurred at ≥37 weeks. Median days from preeclampsia onset to delivery were 4 (IQR 2,16) days, 1 (IQR 1,3) day, and 1 (IQR 0,1) day for those first occurring at <34, 34-37, and ≥37 weeks, respectively. Early preeclampsia onset was associated with greater ASD risk (P=.003); HRs were 1.62 (95% CI 1.33-1.98), 1.43 (95% CI 1.20-1.69), and 1.23 (95% CI 1.08-1.41), respectively, for onset at <34, 34-37, and ≥37 weeks, relative to the unexposed group. Within the preeclampsia group, the number of days from preeclampsia onset to delivery was not associated with ASD risk in children; the HR was 0.995 (95% CI 0.986-1.004) after adjusting for gestational age of preeclampsia onset.

CONCLUSIONS

Preeclampsia during pregnancy was associated with ASD risk in children, and the risk was greater with earlier onset. However, the number of days from first preeclampsia onset to delivery was not associated with ASD risk in children. Our study suggests that ASD risk in children associated with preeclampsia is not increased by expectant management of preeclampsia in standard clinical practice. Our results emphasize the need to identify effective approaches to preventing the onset of preeclampsia, especially during early pregnancy. Further research is needed to confirm if this finding applies across different populations and clinical settings.

Biases in Improvement Decisions: People Focus on the Relative Reduction in Bad Outcomes

People often decide whether to invest scarce resources-such as time, money, or energy-to improve their chances of a positive outcome. For example, a doctor might decide whether to utilize scarce medicine to improve a patient's chances of recovery, or a student might decide whether to study a few additional hours to increase their chances of passing an exam. We conducted 11 studies (N = 5,342 adults) and found evidence that people behave as if they focus on the relative reduction in bad outcomes caused by such improvements. As a consequence, the same improvements (e.g., 10-percentage-point improvements) are valued very differently depending on whether one's initial chances of success are high or low. This focus on the relative reduction of bad outcomes drives risk preferences that violate normative standards (Studies 1a-1g and 2a), is amplified when decisions become more consequential (Study 2b), and leads even experienced professionals to make suboptimal decisions (Study 3).

Validation of TRI-SCORE for Outcome Prediction After Isolated Tricuspid Valve Surgery in Asian Patients

BACKGROUND

TRI-SCORE was recently developed in Europe as a risk model for predicting in-hospital death after isolated tricuspid valve surgery. We aimed to validate TRI-SCORE in an Asian population and investigate its value for predicting long-term outcomes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The TRI-SCORE was calculated for 202 patients (65±11 years, 61% women, 81% functional tricuspid regurgitation) who underwent isolated tricuspid valve surgery for severe tricuspid regurgitation at 2 Korean centers and was based on 8 parameters: age, New York Heart Association class, right-sided heart failure signs, furosemide daily dose, glomerular filtration rate, bilirubin, left ventricular ejection fraction, and moderate/severe right ventricular dysfunction. The primary outcome was all-cause death during follow-up; the secondary outcome was in-hospital death. During a median follow-up duration of 50 (interquartile range, 21-82) months after isolated tricuspid valve surgery, 23 (11.4%) patients experienced the primary outcome, and 7 (3.5%) patients experienced the secondary outcome. Observed all-cause death and in-hospital death increased by up to 50% in those with higher scores. Patients with the primary outcome had a higher TRI-SCORE (4.5±2.4 versus 2.9±2.1; P=0.001) than those without. The TRI-SCORE showed a significant association with the primary outcome (concordance index, 0.77, cutoff value, 4) and in-hospital death (area under the curve, 0.84; cutoff value, 3). Using the Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients with a high TRI-SCORE exhibited a poor outcome for all-cause death at follow-up (log-rank P<0.001) and in-hospital death (log-rank P=0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

TRI-SCORE was validated in an Asian population and helped predict long-term outcomes after isolated tricuspid valve surgery.

Influence of Disease-Related Stigma on Patients' Decisions to Upload Medical Reports to the German Electronic Health Record: Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

The rollout of the electronic health record (EHR) represents a central component of the digital transformation of the German health care system. Although the EHR promises more effective, safer, and faster treatment of patients from a systems perspective, the successful implementation of the EHR largely depends on the patient. In a recent survey, 3 out of 4 Germans stated that they intend to use the EHR, whereas other studies show that the intention to use a technology is not a reliable and sufficient predictor of actual use.

OBJECTIVE

Controlling for patients' intention to use the EHR, we investigated whether disease-specific risk perceptions related to the time course of the disease and disease-related stigma explain the additional variance in patients' decisions to upload medical reports to the EHR.

METHODS

In an online user study, 241 German participants were asked to interact with a randomly assigned medical report that varied systematically in terms of disease-related stigma (high vs low) and disease time course (acute vs chronic) and to decide whether to upload it to the EHR.

RESULTS

Disease-related stigma (odds ratio 0.154, P<.001) offset the generally positive relationship between intention to use and the upload decision (odds ratio 2.628, P<.001), whereas the disease time course showed no effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Even if patients generally intend to use the EHR, risk perceptions such as those related to diseases associated with social stigma may deter people from uploading related medical reports to the EHR. To ensure the reliable use of this key technology in a digitalized health care system, transparent and easy-to-comprehend information about the safety standards of the EHR are warranted across the board, even for populations that are generally in favor of using the EHR.

Discovering Novel Organophosphorus Compounds in Wastewater Treatment Plant Effluents through Suspect Screening and Nontarget Analysis

Limited knowledge on the structure of emerging organophosphorus compounds (OPCs) hampers our comprehensive understanding of their environmental occurrence and potential risks. Through suspect and nontarget screening, combining data-dependent acquisition, data-independent acquisition, and parallel reaction monitoring modes, we identified 60 OPCs (17 traditional and 43 emerging compounds) in effluents of 14 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Beijing and Qinghai, China. These OPCs comprise 26 organophosphate triesters, 17 organophosphate diesters, 6 organophosphonates, 7 organothiophosphate esters, and 4 other OPCs. Notably, 14 suspect OPCs were newly identified in WWTP effluents, and 16 nontarget OPCs were newly discovered in environmental matrices. Specifically, the cyclic phosphonate, (5-ethyl-2-methyl-1,3,2-dioxaphosphorinan-5-yl)methyl dimethyl phosphonate P-oxide (PMMMPn), consistently appeared in all WWTP effluents, with semiquantitative concentrations ranging from 44.4 to 282 ng/L. Its analogue, di-PMMMPn, presented in 93% of wastewater samples. Compositional differences between the WWTP effluents of two cities were mainly attributed to emerging OPCs. Hazard and ecological risk assessment underscored the substantial contribution of chlorinated organophosphate esters and organothiophosphate esters to overall risks of OPCs in WWTP effluents. This study provides the most comprehensive OPC profiles in WWTP effluents to date, highlighting the need for further research on their occurrence, fate, and risks, particularly for chlorinated OPCs.

A Grounded Theory of Youth Athlete Concussion Under-Reporting Decisions

BACKGROUND

Sport-related concussions leave youth vulnerable to significant health, physical, social, and educational disruptions. Many youth athletes under-report concussions, but the scope of the issue for this population is not well understood, nor are the underlying motivations for (under)reporting. It is necessary to examine the relationship between sport-related concussion knowledge and reporting and invite athletes to share their decision-making processes. The purpose of the research was to understand how athletes' attitudes, experiences and beliefs regarding concussions influence their under-reporting decisions and behaviours.

METHODS

We conducted semi-structured interviews with 17 elite athletes, aged 16-18 years, from individual and team sports. Data were analyzed using constructivist grounded theory and a substantive theoretical model of sport-related concussion under-reporting was developed.

RESULTS

The model demonstrates personal, social, cultural, and biophysical processes that contribute to under-reporting decisions and identifies multiple interconnected processes that contribute to 'high-risk' situations of under-reporting. Youth athletes navigate various barriers and facilitators to under-reporting, including their own desire to play, perceived stigma, concussion sense-making, and social influences. Results suggest that under-reporting by youth athletes implicates a collective, rather than individual, responsibility.

CONCLUSIONS

A theoretical grounded model for youth sport-related concussion under-reporting highlights the complexity of the decision-making process. This study offers a new framework for understanding why youth athletes may hide concussion symptoms. The model offers potential to be used to develop concussion interventions and tools for improved decision-making, and to address issues of risk and responsibility concerning concussion reporting.

The Impact of Design Factors on User Behavior in a Virtual Hospital Room to Explore Fall Prevention Strategies

OBJECTIVES

Falls in hospitals pose a significant safety risk, leading to injuries, prolonged hospitalization, and lasting complications. This study explores the potential of augmented reality (AR) technology in healthcare facility design to mitigate fall risk.

BACKGROUND

Few studies have investigated the impact of hospital room layouts on falls due to the high cost of building physical prototypes. This study introduces an innovative approach using AR technology to advance methods for healthcare facility design efficiently.

METHODS

Ten healthy participants enrolled in this study to examine different hospital room designs in AR. Factors of interest included room configuration, door type, exit side of the bed, toilet placement, and the presence of IV equipment. AR trackers captured trajectories of the body as participants navigated through these AR hospital layouts, providing insights into user behavior and preferences.

RESULTS

Door type influenced the degree of backward and sideways movement, with the presence of an IV pole intensifying the interaction between door and room type, leading to increased sideways and backward motion. Participants displayed varying patterns of backward and sideways travel depending on the specific room configurations they encountered.

CONCLUSIONS

AR can be an efficient and cost-effective method to modify room configurations to identify important design factors before conducting physical testing. The results of this study provide valuable insights into the effect of environmental factors on movement patterns in simulated hospital rooms. These results highlight the importance of considering environmental factors, such as the type of door and bathroom location, when designing healthcare facilities.

Ecological validity of common behavioral decision making tasks: evidence across two samples

BACKGROUND

Clinicians and scholars routinely use behavioral decision tasks to assess real-world decision making capabilities. However, many common behavioral decision making tasks lack data on the extent to which they predict real-world risky behaviors. Across two pre-registered studies, and two timepoints, we assessed decision making abilities using common behavioral tasks and predicted participants' real-world risky decision making from task performance.

METHOD

In Study 1, 918 Mechanical Turk (MTurk) workers completed three decision making tasks in addition to assessments of real-world risk behavior: preventive health behaviors, COVID-19 vaccination status, and virtual social distancing task performance. In Study 2, 221 college student participants completed the Study 1 tasks plus additional assessments of decision making and real world risk and protective behaviors.

RESULTS

Across both studies, the selected behavioral decision tasks rarely predicted real world behavior and, when they did, the relationship was weak at best.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that these behavioral decision making tasks may not be good predictors of real world risky behavior at present, with some evidence that the specificity of the behavior being assessed matters (i.e. the closer the task was to the specific behavior being predicted), calling for additional ecological validity research, with a greater variety of tasks in the future.

Factors Influencing Patient Disclosure of Parkinson's Disease Genetic Testing Results to Relatives

BACKGROUND

Persons with Parkinson's disease (PD) who have received genetic test results are faced with the decision of whether, and how, to share that information with family. Studies in other specialties have shown high rates of disclosure motivated by a sense of responsibility. Rates of, and attitudes surrounding, disclosure have yet to be reported in this population.

OBJECTIVES

To explore the disclosure practices and motivations of patients with PD regarding genetic test results, allowing insight to guide genetic counseling and navigation of test result discussions.

METHODS

A cross-sectional online survey was distributed to adults with PD and previous genetic test results. Survey questions assessed demographics, genetic testing results and delivery, sharing behaviors, perceptions of PD, and motivations and barriers to family disclosure.

RESULTS

Among respondents, 88.9% shared results with at least one family member, most often a child (73.5%) or sibling (65.4%). Seventy-four percent reported sharing results with someone outside of their family, most frequently a friend (88.4%). The most common motivation for disclosure was the perception that family members would want to know. Barriers to disclosure were lack of close relationships, understanding results, and perceived utility.

CONCLUSIONS

Disclosure rates in this PD population were consistent with those in previously reported populations. Motivations were anchored in perceptions of utility and family desire for information, suggesting a need to adjust patient education to improve retention and to explore family dynamics and perceptions of results.

Mpox Diagnosis, Behavioral Risk Modification, and Vaccination Uptake among Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men, United Kingdom, 2022

During the 2022 multicountry mpox outbreak, the United Kingdom identified cases beginning in May. UK cases increased in June, peaked in July, then rapidly declined after September 2022. Public health responses included community-supported messaging and targeted mpox vaccination among eligible gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM). Using data from an online survey of GBMSM during November-December 2022, we examined self-reported mpox diagnoses, behavioral risk modification, and mpox vaccination offer and uptake. Among 1,333 participants, only 35 (2.6%) ever tested mpox-positive, but 707 (53%) reported behavior modification to avoid mpox. Among vaccine-eligible GBMSM, uptake was 69% (95% CI 65%-72%; 601/875) and was 92% (95% CI 89%-94%; 601/655) among those offered vaccine. GBMSM self-identifying as bisexual, reporting lower educational qualifications, or identifying as unemployed were less likely to be vaccinated. Equitable offer and provision of mpox vaccine are needed to minimize the risk for future outbreaks and mpox-related health inequalities.

Updated Estimates of Radiation Risk for Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease: Implications for Cardiology Practice

This review aims to furnish an updated assessment of the societal healthcare load, including cancer and cardiovascular disease resulting from diagnostic radiologic operations. The previously projected additional cancer risk of 0.9% in a United States 2004 study referred to radiological conditions in 1996 with an X-ray exposure of 0.50 millisievert (mSv) per capita annually. Radiological exposure (radiology + nuclear medicine) has escalated to 2.29 mSv (2016) per capita per year. Low-dose exposures were previously assumed to have a lower biological impact, since they allow the DNA repair system to mitigate molecular damage. However, epidemiological data matured and disproved this assumption, as shown by updated cancer risk assessments derived from the World Health Organization 2013 and the German Institute of Radioprotection 2014 data. The risk of cardiovascular disease aligns within the same order of magnitude as cancer risk and compounds it, as shown by a comprehensive meta-analysis of 93 studies. The collective societal burden arising from the augmented risks of cancer and cardiovascular disease attributable to diagnostic radiology and nuclear medicine is higher than previously thought.

Effects of mask use on cardiopulmonary functions and coronaphobia in the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational study among university students

Mask use during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been widely recommended and mandated worldwide. However, there is a lack of comprehensive research on the potential adverse health effects of mask usage. This study aimed to investigate and evaluate the negative effects of surgical mask use on scientifically proven cardiopulmonary functions in undergraduate and associate degree students, as well as its impact on coronaphobia. A total of 145 volunteer university students (49 males, 96 females, with a mean age of 20 years) were enrolled in the study, which consisted of two 120-minute sessions. Blood oxygen saturation, heart rate, and blood pressure were assessed before and immediately after each session. The Coronavirus-19 Phobia Scale was utilized to measure levels of COVID-19 phobia. While a time-dependent decrease in oxygen saturation level, blood pressure, and heart rate was measured when vital signs were evaluated at 1 and 120 minutes, none of the values fell outside the reference range. The study also investigated the effects of mask use on various symptoms including headaches, visual impairment, facial discomfort, earaches, shortness of breath, and anxiety. Significantly increased occurrences of all these symptoms were observed at the 60th and 120th minute compared with the baseline. The participants enrolled in the study demonstrated a moderate level of COVID-19 phobia based on the mean total score. Furthermore, high scores were recorded in the psychological and social sub-dimensions, while lower scores were recorded in the economic and psychosomatic sub-dimensions. In the post-COVID-19 normalization phase, the use of a surgical mask during a 120-minute course was found to have no significant impact on cardiopulmonary functions, but moderately affected coronaphobia scores.

Risk of depression and anxiety in multiple sclerosis and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder: A nationwide cohort study in South Korea

BACKGROUND

We investigated the risks of depression/anxiety in patients with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) or patients with neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (pwNMOSD).

OBJECTIVES

MS/NMOSD cohorts were collected from Korean National Health Insurance Service, using the International Classification of Diseases-10th and information on Rare Intractable Disease program. Patients who were younger than 20 years, had a previous depression/anxiety, or died in the index year were excluded.

METHODS

Hazard ratios (HRs) of depression/anxiety in pwMS and pwNMOSD from controls matched 1:5 for age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia were calculated using Cox regressions with a 1-year lag period and estimated over time.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 4.1 years, adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for depression were 3.25 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.59-4.07) in MS and 2.17 (1.70-2.76) in NMOSD, and aHRs for anxiety were 1.83 (1.49-2.23) in MS and 1.56 (1.26-1.91) in NMOSD. The risks of anxiety/depression did not differ between MS and NMOSD and were highest in the second year after diagnosis of MS/NMOSD. The relative risk of depression was higher in younger pwMS/pwNMOSD, and the relative risk of anxiety was higher in pwMS who was male, had low income, or lived in a non-urban area.

CONCLUSION

The risk of depression and anxiety was increased in pwMS/pwNMOSD.

Anxiety and suicidality in the college student population

Objective: This study examined symptoms of anxiety, depression and suicidality in a national sample of college students. Participants: Using national survey data from the Healthy Minds Study (HMS), a random sample from 184 U.S. campuses from fall 2016 to spring 2019 was analyzed (N = 119,875). Methods: Prevalence rates were examined with the Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7-Item scale, Patient Health Questionnaire-9 and suicidality questions. Relationships between anxiety, depression and suicidality were assessed through Spearman's correlations, the Kruskal-Wallis H test and logistic regressions. Results: Findings revealed that screening only for depression would pick up 23% of suicidal ideation, increasing to 35% when also screening for anxiety. Those with anxiety and no to minimal depression had the second highest likelihood of suicide attempt, following those with anxiety and depression. The symptom "feeling afraid something awful might happen" doubled the odds of suicidal ideation. Conclusions: College campuses may benefit from assessing particular anxiety symptoms in relation to suicide.

'You can't really separate these risks, our environment, our animals and us': Australian children's perceptions of the risks of the climate crisis

Perceptions of the risks associated with the climate crisis are shaped by a range of social and political contexts and information sources. While some have expressed concerns about the impact of the spread of climate misinformation through social media platforms on young people, others have shown that the youth climate movement has played a key role in countering misinformation. Despite this, there has been very limited research with children about how they conceptualize the risks associated with the climate crisis, how they receive climate information, and how they understand and apply this to their own and others' lives. The following qualitative study used photo-elicitation techniques and in-depth interviews with Australian children to address this gap. A total of n = 28 children (12-16 years) participated, with four themes constructed from the data using a reflexive approach to thematic analysis. Children were concerned about how the climate crisis would continue to harm their futures and the health of planet and people. They recognized that some groups and countries would experience more risks associated with the climate crisis as compared to others. While they received information from a range of different sources (school, family, social media), they mostly used social media to seek out climate information. They recognized that social media sites could be a source of climate misinformation, and argued that a range of strategies were needed to identify and counter false information about the climate crisis. Children's perspectives must be harnessed to improve information about climate risks and action.

Green autofluorescence of the skin and fingernails is a novel biomarker for evaluating the risk for developing acute ischemic stroke

The only existing approach for assessing the risk of developing acute ischemic stroke (AIS) necessitates that individuals possess a strong understanding of their health status. Our research gathered compelling evidence in favor of our hypothesis, suggesting that the likelihood of developing AIS can be assessed by analyzing the green autofluorescence (AF) of the skin and fingernails. Utilizing machine learning-based analyses of AF images, we found that the area under the curve (AUC) for distinguishing subjects with three risk factors from those with zero, one, or two risk factors was 0.79, 0.76, and 0.75, respectively. Our research has revealed that green AF serves as an innovative biomarker for assessing the risk of developing AIS. Our method is objective, non-invasive, efficient, and economic, which shows great promise to boost a technology for screening natural populations for risk of developing AIS.

Gender differences in modifiable dementia risk factors in monolingual and bilingual Australian adults

ISSUE ADDRESSED

Gender and bilingualism are reported to influence the risk of dementia. This study examined the prevalence of self-reported modifiable dementia risk factors by gender in two samples: one that speaks at least one language other than English (LoE) and one that speaks only English.

METHODS

A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted on a sample of Australian residents aged 50 years or over (n = 4339). Participant characteristics and dementia risk behaviours were inspected using descriptive statistics in data collected via online surveys between October 2020 and November 2021.

RESULTS

In both samples, men had a higher rate than women of being overweight and were classified more frequently as being at risk of dementia due to alcohol consumption, lower cognitive activity, and non-adherence to the Mediterranean-style diet. Men reported better management of their cardiometabolic health than women across both groups. Non-significant trends showed men were more often smokers but more physically active than women in the LoE group, and less often smokers but less physically active than women in the English-only group.

CONCLUSION

This study found men and women reported similar patterns of dementia risk behaviours regardless of LoE or English-only status. SO WHAT?: Gender differences in risk behaviours prevail regardless of language-speaking status. The results can be used to guide future research aiming to understand and reduce modifiable dementia risk in Australia and beyond.

Longer hospitalizations, more complications, and greater readmissions for patients with comorbid psychiatric disorders undergoing pulmonary lobectomy

OBJECTIVE

To examine the influence of comorbid psychiatric disorders (PSYD) on postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing pulmonary lobectomy.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Nationwide Readmissions Database from 2016 to 2018 was performed. Patients with lung cancer with and without psychiatric comorbidities who underwent pulmonary lobectomy were collated and analyzed (International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Clinical Modification Mental, Behavioral and Neurodevelopmental disorders [F01-99]). The association of PSYD with complications, length of stay, and readmissions was assessed using a multivariable regression analysis. Additional subgroup analyses were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 41,691 patients met inclusion criteria. Of these, 27.84% (11,605) of the patients had at least 1 PSYD. PSYD was associated with a significantly increased risk of postoperative complications (relative risk, 1.041; 95% CI, 1.015-1.068; P = .0018), pulmonary complications (relative risk, 1.125; 95% CI, 1.08-1.171; P < .0001), longer length of stay (PSYD mean, 6.79 days and non-PSYD mean, 5.68 days; P < .0001), higher 30-day readmission rate (9.2% vs 7.9%; P < .0001), and 90-day readmission rate (15.4% vs 12.9%; P < .007). Among patients with PSYD, those with cognitive disorders and psychotic disorders (eg, schizophrenia) appear to have the highest rates and risks of postoperative morbidity and in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with lung cancer with comorbid psychiatric disorders undergoing lobectomy experience worse postoperative outcomes with longer hospitalization, increased rates of overall and pulmonary complications, and greater readmissions suggesting potential opportunities for improved psychiatric care during the perioperative period.

Using the R package popharvest to assess the sustainability of offtake in birds

The R package popharvest was designed to help assess the sustainability of offtake in birds when only limited demographic information is available. In this article, we describe some basics of harvest theory and then discuss several considerations when using the different approaches in popharvest to assess whether observed harvests are unsustainable. Throughout, we emphasize the importance of distinguishing between the scientific and policy aspects of managing offtake. The principal product of popharvest is a sustainable harvest index (SHI), which can indicate whether the harvest is unsustainable but not the converse. SHI is estimated based on a simple, scalar model of logistic population growth, whose parameters may be estimated using limited knowledge of demography. Uncertainty in demography leads to a distribution of SHI values and it is the purview of the decision-maker to determine what amounts to an acceptable risk when failing to reject the null hypothesis of sustainability. The attitude toward risk, in turn, will likely depend on the decision-maker's objective(s) in managing offtake. The management objective as specified in popharvest is a social construct, informed by biology, but ultimately it is an expression of social values that usually vary among stakeholders. We therefore suggest that any standardization of criteria for management objectives in popharvest will necessarily be subjective and, thus, hard to defend in diverse decision-making situations. Because of its ease of use, diverse functionalities, and a minimal requirement of demographic information, we expect the use of popharvest to become widespread. Nonetheless, we suggest that while popharvest provides a useful platform for rapid assessments of sustainability, it cannot substitute for sufficient expertise and experience in harvest theory and management.

Imposing a Lifestyle: A New Argument for Antinatalism

Antinatalism is an emerging philosophy and practice that challenges pronatalism, the prevailing philosophy and practice in reproductive matters. We explore justifications of antinatalism-the arguments from the quality of life, the risk of an intolerable life, the lack of consent, and the asymmetry of good and bad-and argue that none of them supports a concrete, understandable, and convincing moral case for not having children. We identify concentration on possible future individuals who may or may not come to be as the main culprit for the failure and suggest that the focus should be shifted to people who already exist. Pronatalism's hegemonic status in contemporary societies imposes upon us a lifestyle that we have not chosen yet find almost impossible to abandon. We explicate the nature of this imposition and consider the implications of its exposure to different stakeholders with varying stands on the practice of antinatalism. Imposition as a term has figured in reproductive debates before, but the argument from postnatal, mental, and cultural imposition we launch is new. It is the hitherto overlooked and underdeveloped justification of antinatalism that should be solid and comprehensible enough to be used even by activists in support of their work.

Childhood trauma moderates schizotypy-related brain morphology: analyses of 1182 healthy individuals from the ENIGMA schizotypy working group

BACKGROUND

Schizotypy represents an index of psychosis-proneness in the general population, often associated with childhood trauma exposure. Both schizotypy and childhood trauma are linked to structural brain alterations, and it is possible that trauma exposure moderates the extent of brain morphological differences associated with schizotypy.

METHODS

We addressed this question using data from a total of 1182 healthy adults (age range: 18-65 years old, 647 females/535 males), pooled from nine sites worldwide, contributing to the Enhancing NeuroImaging Genetics through Meta-Analysis (ENIGMA) Schizotypy working group. All participants completed both the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire Brief version (SPQ-B), and the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ), and underwent a 3D T1-weighted brain MRI scan from which regional indices of subcortical gray matter volume and cortical thickness were determined.

RESULTS

A series of multiple linear regressions revealed that differences in cortical thickness in four regions-of-interest were significantly associated with interactions between schizotypy and trauma; subsequent moderation analyses indicated that increasing levels of schizotypy were associated with thicker left caudal anterior cingulate gyrus, right middle temporal gyrus and insula, and thinner left caudal middle frontal gyrus, in people exposed to higher (but not low or average) levels of childhood trauma. This was found in the context of morphological changes directly associated with increasing levels of schizotypy or increasing levels of childhood trauma exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that alterations in brain regions critical for higher cognitive and integrative processes that are associated with schizotypy may be enhanced in individuals exposed to high levels of trauma.

Risk prediction models in emergency surgery: Protocol for a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Risk prediction models are used for many purposes in emergency surgery, including critical care triage and benchmarking. Several risk prediction models have been developed, and some are used for purposes other than those for which they were developed. We aim to provide an overview of the existing literature on risk prediction models used in emergency surgery and highlight knowledge gaps.

METHODS

We will conduct a scoping review on risk prediction models used for patients undergoing emergency surgery in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR). We will search Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library and include all study designs. We aim to answer the following questions: (1) What risk prediction models are used in emergency surgery? (2) Which variables are used in these models? (3) Which surgical specialties are the models used for? (4) Have the models been externally validated? (5) Where have the models been externally validated? (6) What purposes were the models developed for? (7) What are the strengths and limitations of the included models? We will summarize the results descriptively. The certainty of evidence will be evaluated using a modified Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach.

CONCLUSION

The outlined scoping review will summarize the existing literature on risk prediction models used in emergency surgery and highlight knowledge gaps.

Psychometric evaluation of the Trust in Science and Scientists Scale

Reliable and valid measurement of trust in science and scientists is important. Assessing levels of such trust is important in determining attitudes and predicting behaviours in response to medical and scientific interventions targeted at managing public crises. However, trust is a complex phenomenon that has to be understood in relation to both distrust and mistrust. The Trust in Science and Scientists Scale has been adopted with increasing frequency in large-scale public health research. Detailed psychometric evaluation of the scale is overdue and makes meaningful comparisons between studies that use the scale difficult. Here, we examine the scale's dimensionality across five separate samples. We find that two factors emerge that are divided by their item polarity. Implications for scale use and trust in science measurement are discussed.

Humanitarian ignorance: towards a new paradigm of non-knowledge in digital humanitarianism

This paper introduces the notion of 'humanitarian ignorance' to address growing concern regarding non-knowledge, as datafication becomes a central instrument and ambition of the humanitarian sector. With the turn to digital humanitarianism, contemporary humanitarian action increasingly relies on technology-driven quantification to expand the ability to collect, analyse, and present information. Utilising datafication processes, humanitarian organisations seek to assess 'risk' and mitigate 'uncertainty' more efficiently. Although central to their knowledge management and decision-making in low information circumstances, the conceptual notions of 'risk' and 'uncertainty' are inadequate to capture the full spectrum of non-knowledge in a time of digital humanitarianism. We introduce 'humanitarian ignorance' here to challenge the assumption that datafication allows humanitarian organisations to make fully informed, delimited, and thus 'better' decisions. Ultimately, we accentuate the paradox that while datafication is thought to reduce risk and uncertainty in humanitarian affairs by suggesting higher levels of control, insight, and certainty, these efforts in fact open new expanses of ignorance and unknowns.

Is Cladophora fracta an efficient tool of accumulating critical raw materials from wastewater and there a potential health risk of use of algae as organic fertilizer?

 In this study investigation of accumulations of critical raw materials (cobalt (Co), antimony (Sb), vanadium (V), lanthanum (La) and tungsten (W)) from wastewater by using C. fracta were aimed. Besides, assessment of the potential health risks in terms of the use of organic fertilizer obtained from the macroalga to be harvested from the treatment were also aimed. Highest Co, Sb, V, La and W accumulations by algae in reactor were 125±6.2%, 201.25±10%, 318.18±15%, 357.97±18%, and 500±25%, respectively. When compared with control, Co, Sb, V, La and W in algae increased 2.25, 3.01, 4.18, 4.58, and 6 times, respectively. The algae was very high bioaccumulative for Co and La. Highest MPI was calculated as 3.94. Non-carcinogenic risk of CRMs according to different exposure types (ingestion, inhalation, and dermal) were calculated for man, woman and child. There is not any non-carcinogenic risk from the investigated exposure ways of algae as organic fertilizer.

Head-to-head comparison of American, European, and Asian TIRADSs in thyroid nodule assessment: systematic review and meta-analysis

Context

Ultrasound-based risk stratification systems (Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data Systems (TIRADSs)) of thyroid nodules (TNs) have been implemented in clinical practice worldwide based on their high performance. However, it remains unexplored whether different TIRADSs perform uniformly across a range of TNs in routine practice. This issue is highly relevant today, given the ongoing international effort to establish a unified TIRADS (i.e. I-TIRADS), supported by the leading societies specializing in TNs. The study aimed to conduct a direct comparison among ACR-, EU-, and K-TIRADS in the distribution of TNs: (1) across the TIRADS categories, and (2) based on their estimated cancer risk.

Methods

A search was conducted on PubMed and Embase until June 2023. Original studies that sequentially assessed TNs using TIRADSs, regardless of FNAC indication, were selected. General study characteristics and data on the distribution of TNs across TIRADSs were extracted.

Results

Seven studies, reporting a total of 41,332 TNs, were included in the analysis. The prevalence of ACR-TIRADS 1-2 was significantly higher than that of EU-TIRADS 2 and K-TIRADS 2, with no significant difference observed among intermediate- and high-risk categories of TIRADSs. According to malignancy risk estimation, K-TIRADS often classified TNs as having more severe risk, ACR-TIRADS as having moderate risk, and EU-TIRADS classified TNs as having lower risk.

Conclusion

ACR-, EU-, and K-TIRADS assess TNs similarly across their categories, with slight differences in low-risk classifications. Despite this, focusing on cancer risk estimation, the three TIRADSs assess TNs differently. These findings should be considered as a prerequisite for developing the I-TIRADS.

Bioinformatics and meta-analysis of the clinical significance of RECK expression and its genetic polymorphisms in cancer

RECK plays an important role in the development of cancer. The current study focuses on exploring the clinical significance of RECK expression in cancer by mining public data and also evaluating the relationship between genetic polymorphisms of the RECK gene and cancer risk through meta-analysis. The results showed that RECK expression was not only associated with survival prognosis and immune infiltration in many types of cancers, but also with multiple drug sensitivity in pan-cancer. In addition, the RECK rs10814325 polymorphism was also associated with cancer risk under the homozygote comparison model (CC vs. TT: OR = 1.64, 95%CI = 1.03-2.61, p = 0.04) and the recessive genetic model [CC vs. (CT + TT): OR = 1.55, 95%CI = 1.27-1.89, p < 0.01]. In conclusion, these findings suggest that RECK expression levels may serve as a valuable indicator for assessing cancer prognosis in some cancers as well as drug sensitivity in pan-cancer, and its rs10814325 polymorphism may be used to assess cancer risk.

Vitamin C, vitamin E, β-carotene and risk of Parkinson's disease: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of observational studies

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to explore the relationship between the intake of vitamin C, vitamin E and β-carotene, and the risk of Parkinson's disease (PD).

METHODS

Web of Science, Embase, PubMed, Cochrane library, CNKI, and WanFang databases were searched from inception to 29 August 2022 for observational studies reporting the odds ratios (ORs) or relative risks (RRs) or hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of PD by Vitamin C/Vitamin E/β-carotene intake. Random-effects models, publication bias assessment, subgroup, sensitivity and dose-response analyses were performed, using.Stata version 12.0.

RESULTS

A total of 13 studies were included. There was no significant association between high-dose vitamin C intake and the risk of PD compared with low-dose vitamin C intake (RR = 0.98, 95%CI:0.89,1.08). Compared with low-dose intake, high-dose intake of vitamin E can prevent the risk of PD (RR = 0.87, 95%CI:0.77,0.99). Compared with lower β-carotene intake, there was a borderline non-significant correlation between higher intake and PD risk (RR = 0.91, 95%CI:0.82,1.01), and high dose β-carotene intake was found to be associated with a lower risk of PD in women (RR = 0.78, 95%CI:0.64,0.96).

CONCLUSION

This study shows that vitamin E intake can reduce the risk of PD and play a preventive role.

Muscle parameters in fragility fracture risk prediction in older adults: A scoping review

Half of osteoporotic fractures occur in patients with normal/osteopenic bone density or at intermediate or low estimated risk. Muscle measures have been shown to contribute to fracture risk independently of bone mineral density. The objectives were to review the measurements of muscle health (muscle mass/quantity/quality, strength and function) and their association with incident fragility fractures and to summarize their use in clinical practice. This scoping review follows the PRISMA-ScR guidelines for reporting. Our search strategy covered the three overreaching concepts of 'fragility fractures', 'muscle health assessment' and 'risk'. We retrieved 14 745 references from Medline Ovid SP, EMBASE, Web of Science Core Collection and Google Scholar. We included original and prospective studies on community-dwelling adults aged over 50 years that analysed an association between at least one muscle parameter and incident fragility fractures. We systematically extracted 17 items from each study, including methodology, general characteristics and results. Data were summarized in tables and graphically presented in adjusted forest plots. Sixty-seven articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria. In total, we studied 60 muscle parameters or indexes and 322 fracture risk ratios over 2.8 million person-years (MPY). The median (interquartile range) sample size was 1642 (921-5756), age 69.2 (63.5-73.6) years, follow-up 10.0 (4.4-12.0) years and number of incident fragility fractures 166 (88-277). A lower muscle mass was positively/not/negatively associated with incident fragility fracture in 28 (2.0), 64 (2.5) and 10 (0.2 MPY) analyses. A lower muscle strength was positively/not/negatively associated with fractures in 53 (1.3), 57 (1.7 MPY) and 0 analyses. A lower muscle function was positively/not/negatively associated in 63 (1.9), 45 (1.0 MPY) and 0 analyses. An in-depth analysis shows how each single muscle parameter was associated with each fragility fractures subtype. This review summarizes markers of muscle health and their association with fragility fractures. Measures of muscle strength and function appeared to perform better for fracture risk prediction. Of these, hand grip strength and gait speed are likely to be the most practical measures for inclusion in clinical practice, as in the evaluation of sarcopenia or in further fracture risk assessment scores. Measures of muscle mass did not appear to predict fragility fractures and might benefit from further research, on D3-creatine dilution test, lean mass indexes and artificial intelligence methods.

A medical big data access control model based on smart contracts and risk in the blockchain environment

The rapid development of the Hospital Information System has significantly enhanced the convenience of medical research and the management of medical information. However, the internal misuse and privacy leakage of medical big data are critical issues that need to be addressed in the process of medical research and information management. Access control serves as a method to prevent data misuse and privacy leakage. Nevertheless, traditional access control methods, limited by their single usage scenario and susceptibility to single point failures, fail to adapt to the polymorphic, real-time, and sensitive characteristics of medical big data scenarios. This paper proposes a smart contracts and risk-based access control model (SCR-BAC). This model integrates smart contracts with traditional risk-based access control and deploys risk-based access control policies in the form of smart contracts into the blockchain, thereby ensuring the protection of medical data. The model categorizes risk into historical and current risk, quantifies the historical risk based on the time decay factor and the doctor's historical behavior, and updates the doctor's composite risk value in real time. The access control policy, based on the comprehensive risk, is deployed into the blockchain in the form of a smart contract. The distributed nature of the blockchain is utilized to automatically enforce access control, thereby resolving the issue of single point failures. Simulation experiments demonstrate that the access control model proposed in this paper effectively curbs the access behavior of malicious doctors to a certain extent and imposes a limiting effect on the internal abuse and privacy leakage of medical big data.

Role of SGLT2 Inhibitors, DPP-4 Inhibitors, and Metformin in Pancreatic Cancer Prevention

Pancreatic carcinoma is a highly aggressive tumor that usually presents when it has already metastasized. Therapeutic options for cure remain scarce and rely on combination chemotherapy with limited sustainability. Diabetes is considered an important risk factor for the development of pancreatic cancer due to the production of proinflammatory cytokines, which result in increased cell proliferation. More than half of patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer eventually develop diabetes due to the destruction of insulin-producing cells. The interlinkage of both diseases might identify a possible preventative strategy for reducing the incidence of pancreatic carcinoma. This study reviewed the recent literature on the association between pancreatic cancer risk and SGLT2 inhibitors, GLP-1 RA, DPP-4 inhibitors, and biguanides. There are mixed data regarding the relationship between GLP-1 RA and DPP-4 inhibitors and pancreatic cancer, with some trials suggesting that they might increase the risk. In contrast, studies have mostly revealed that SGLT2 inhibitors have an antiproliferative effect on various tumors, such as liver, pancreatic, prostate, bowel, lung, and breast carcinoma, which might be due to their mechanism of blockage of reabsorption of glucose by cells, lowering the amount of available glucose for the growth of tumor cells. Metformin, the first-line agent for diabetes, has also been shown to be associated with decreasing pancreatic cancer risk and improving prognosis in those who already have the disease. Dedicated trials are needed to further delineate the association of antidiabetic drugs with the risk of pancreatic cancer in the general population, as previous studies have mostly focused on diabetic patients.

Association Between Adherence to 24-Hour Movement Guidelines and Noncommunicable Disease Risk in Chinese Adults: Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The increasing annual global deaths are attributable to noncommunicable chronic diseases (NCDs). Adhering to healthy lifestyle behaviors is associated with lower NCD risk, particularly among individuals with ample movement, enough sleep, and reduced sedentariness. Nevertheless, there are only few prospective assessments on the association of interactions between daily activities with NCD prevention, while the associations between adhering to Canadian 24-Hour Movement Guidelines (24HGs) for adults and NCD risks are still unknown. Compared to the general population, obese and overweight populations are at a higher risk of developing NCDs. Currently, it is unclear whether the health benefits of adhering to 24HGs differ between the general population and the obese population.

OBJECTIVE

This study explores prospective associations between adherence to 24HGs and NCD risks by weight status among overweight and obese adults in China.

METHODS

This decadal study consists of 9227 adults aged 35 years and older without any major NCDs at enrolment in the China Health and Nutrition Survey (2004-2011) and followed up until 2015. The exposure of interest was the overall score of compliance with 24HGs measured by participants' self-report, wherein 1 point was assigned for compliance to each component, resulting in an aggregated score ranging from 0 to 3. The primary outcome was the first occurrence of major NCDs (high blood pressure, stroke, diabetes, cancer, and acute myocardial infarction). Log-binomial regression models were used to evaluate the associations.

RESULTS

: Overall, 4315 males and 4912 females, with 25,175 person-years of follow-up, were included in our analyses. The average baseline age was 50.21 (SD 11.04) years. Among the overweight and obese groups, those adhering to 1 (risk ratio [RR] 0.37, 95% CI 0.19-0.74; P=.004), 2 (RR 0.37, 95% CI 0.19-0.72; P=.003), and 3 (RR 0.32, 95% CI 0.14-0.73; P=.006) recommendations of 24HGs had a significantly lower NCD risk than those not adhering to any of the activity guidelines. Among the normal or underweight groups, those adhering to 1 (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.27-0.96; P=.03) and 3 (RR 0.40, 95% CI 0.17-0.94; P=.03) components had a significantly lower NCD risk than those not adhering to any of the activity guidelines.

CONCLUSIONS

In this prospective study, we found that active adherence to recommendations of 24HGs was associated with lower risks of NCDs, especially among overweight and obese participants. Additionally, overweight and obese individuals who met at least 1 component of 24HGs were at a significantly lower risk for NCDs, but this protective effect was not found among individuals in the normal and underweight groups. Individuals with excess body weight who tend to be more susceptible to health risks may gain greater health benefits than the general population by adhering to the recommendations of 24HGs.

High ovarian responders have the highest risk of premature progesterone rise

OBJECTIVE

Late follicular phase progesterone elevation is a complication that affects approximately 38% of IVF cycles. There is a lack of consensus on the appropriate cut-off levels for progesterone on hCG day. Although premature progesterone rise occurs in all kinds of ovarian responses, there is a knowledge gap regarding the ovarian response with the highest risk of this phenomenon. Our study aims to assess the relative risk of each kind of ovarian response for premature progesterone rise and evaluate the prevalence of premature progesterone rise in each ovarian response.

METHODS

A retrospective, cross-sectional, comparative and analytic study was performed at the Reproductive Endocrinology Department in Centro Médico Nacional 20 de Noviembre in Mexico City. All conventional-antagonist cycles were grouped according to their ovarian response and were evaluated from 2015 to 2020. Pearson's Squared-chi, Cramer's V, cross-table and the relative risk were calculated.

RESULTS

The prevalence of premature progesterone rise oscillated from 20.8 to 67.9% for low and high ovarian responders, respectively. After calculating the relative risk, high ovarian responders had a 1.38 higher risk for premature progesterone rise than other groups.

CONCLUSIONS

High ovarian responders have the highest risk for premature progesterone rise compared to normal and low ovarian responders. High ovarian responders have a 67.9% prevalence of premature progesterone rise.

Prognostic factors of chronic postsurgical pain following gastrointestinal surgery: A systematic review protocol

BACKGROUND

Chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP) presents a considerable healthcare challenge, impacting patients, and healthcare providers, particularly in the context of gastrointestinal surgery. The notable incidence of CPSP in this specific surgical domain emphasizes the need to identify patients with a high risk of developing this condition. Despite various studies exploring this topic, a comprehensive systematic review focusing on prognostic factors of CPSP following gastrointestinal surgery is currently lacking. Therefore, the aim of this systematic review is, through systematically examination of existing literature, to assess both established and potentially novel prognostic factors, associated with CPSP following gastrointestinal surgery.

METHODS

Adhering to the Cochrane Handbook and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P) checklist, we will use pre-established criteria based on Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Timing, and Setting (PICOT-S), to determine eligibility for inclusion. Essentially, this entails studies reporting on prognostic factors of CPSP following gastrointestinal surgery. Relevant studies will be identified through systematic searches in medical databases, examination of reference lists from included studies, and screening of Clinicaltrials.gov. No restrictions will be imposed regarding language, publication time or source, and both randomized trials and observational studies will be included. Data extraction will follow the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of prognostic factor studies (CHARMS-PF) and for quality assessment, we will use the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool.

RESULTS

The aim for the systematic review is to identify and assess the prognostic value of potential factors for the development of CPSP following gastrointestinal surgery.

CONCLUSION

By creating a comprehensive overview of important prognostic factors for the development of CPSP following gastrointestinal surgery, the findings of this systematic review have the potential to guide future research and to enhance patient information resources.

Identifying Predictive Risk Factors for Future Cognitive Impairment Among Chinese Older Adults: Longitudinal Prediction Study

Background

The societal burden of cognitive impairment in China has prompted researchers to develop clinical prediction models aimed at making risk assessments that enable preventative interventions. However, it is unclear what types of risk factors best predict future cognitive impairment, if known risk factors make equally accurate predictions across different socioeconomic groups, and if existing prediction models are equally accurate across different subpopulations.

Objective

This paper aimed to identify which domain of health information best predicts future cognitive impairment among Chinese older adults and to examine if discrepancies exist in predictive ability across different population subsets.

Methods

Using data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, we quantified the ability of demographics, instrumental activities of daily living, activities of daily living, cognitive tests, social factors and hobbies, psychological factors, diet, exercise and sleep, chronic diseases, and 3 recently published logistic regression-based prediction models to predict 3-year risk of cognitive impairment in the general Chinese population and among male, female, rural-dwelling, urban-dwelling, educated, and not formally educated older adults. Predictive ability was quantified using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and sensitivity-specificity curves through 20 repeats of 10-fold cross-validation.

Results

A total of 4047 participants were included in the study, of which 337 (8.3%) developed cognitive impairment 3 years after baseline data collection. The risk factor groups with the best predictive ability in the general population were demographics (AUC 0.78, 95% CI 0.77-0.78), cognitive tests (AUC 0.72, 95% CI 0.72-0.73), and instrumental activities of daily living (AUC 0.71, 95% CI 0.70-0.71). Demographics, cognitive tests, instrumental activities of daily living, and all 3 recreated prediction models had significantly higher AUCs when making predictions among female older adults compared to male older adults and among older adults with no formal education compared to those with some education.

Conclusions

This study suggests that demographics, cognitive tests, and instrumental activities of daily living are the most useful risk factors for predicting future cognitive impairment among Chinese older adults. However, the most predictive risk factors and existing models have lower predictive power among male, urban-dwelling, and educated older adults. More efforts are needed to ensure that equally accurate risk assessments can be conducted across different socioeconomic groups in China.

Biopsy-verified vulvar lichen sclerosus: Incidence trends 1997-2022 and increased risk of vulvar squamous precancer and squamous cell carcinoma

Population-based data on the epidemiology of vulvar lichen sclerosus (LS) are sparse and only few prospective studies have investigated the malignant potential of the disease. We used the nationwide Danish Pathology Registry to first assess the incidence of biopsy-verified vulvar LS in the period 1997-2022 and second to examine the incidence of vulvar high-grade squamous precancer and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) in women with biopsy-verified vulvar LS (1978-2019) compared with that expected in the general female population. For the latter aim, we computed standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). During our study period, the age-standardized incidence rate of vulvar LS increased from 5.0 (1997-1998) to 35.7 (2021-2022) per 100,000 person-years. Compared with the general female population, women with biopsy-verified vulvar LS had significantly increased rates of vulvar high-grade squamous precancer (SIR = 8.5; 95% CI: 7.2-10.0) and SCC (SIR = 16.2; 95% CI: 14.2-18.4). The SIRs of vulvar high-grade squamous precancer and SCC did not vary substantially according to length of follow-up. This nationwide and population-based study shows a 7-fold increase in the incidence of biopsy-verified vulvar LS since 1997. Data also show that women with biopsy-verified vulvar LS have 8.5 and 16 times higher than expected incidence of vulvar high-grade squamous precancer and SCC, respectively. The substantially increased incidence of vulvar high-grade squamous precancer and SCC following LS is important in relation to the clinical management and follow-up of LS patients.

Search Engines and Generative Artificial Intelligence Integration: Public Health Risks and Recommendations to Safeguard Consumers Online

BACKGROUND

The online pharmacy market is growing, with legitimate online pharmacies offering advantages such as convenience and accessibility. However, this increased demand has attracted malicious actors into this space, leading to the proliferation of illegal vendors that use deceptive techniques to rank higher in search results and pose serious public health risks by dispensing substandard or falsified medicines. Search engine providers have started integrating generative artificial intelligence (AI) into search engine interfaces, which could revolutionize search by delivering more personalized results through a user-friendly experience. However, improper integration of these new technologies carries potential risks and could further exacerbate the risks posed by illicit online pharmacies by inadvertently directing users to illegal vendors.

OBJECTIVE

The role of generative AI integration in reshaping search engine results, particularly related to online pharmacies, has not yet been studied. Our objective was to identify, determine the prevalence of, and characterize illegal online pharmacy recommendations within the AI-generated search results and recommendations.

METHODS

We conducted a comparative assessment of AI-generated recommendations from Google's Search Generative Experience (SGE) and Microsoft Bing's Chat, focusing on popular and well-known medicines representing multiple therapeutic categories including controlled substances. Websites were individually examined to determine legitimacy, and known illegal vendors were identified by cross-referencing with the National Association of Boards of Pharmacy and LegitScript databases.

RESULTS

Of the 262 websites recommended in the AI-generated search results, 47.33% (124/262) belonged to active online pharmacies, with 31.29% (82/262) leading to legitimate ones. However, 19.04% (24/126) of Bing Chat's and 13.23% (18/136) of Google SGE's recommendations directed users to illegal vendors, including for controlled substances. The proportion of illegal pharmacies varied by drug and search engine. A significant difference was observed in the distribution of illegal websites between search engines. The prevalence of links leading to illegal online pharmacies selling prescription medications was significantly higher (P=.001) in Bing Chat (21/86, 24%) compared to Google SGE (6/92, 6%). Regarding the suggestions for controlled substances, suggestions generated by Google led to a significantly higher number of rogue sellers (12/44, 27%; P=.02) compared to Bing (3/40, 7%).

CONCLUSIONS

While the integration of generative AI into search engines offers promising potential, it also poses significant risks. This is the first study to shed light on the vulnerabilities within these platforms while highlighting the potential public health implications associated with their inadvertent promotion of illegal pharmacies. We found a concerning proportion of AI-generated recommendations that led to illegal online pharmacies, which could not only potentially increase their traffic but also further exacerbate existing public health risks. Rigorous oversight and proper safeguards are urgently needed in generative search to mitigate consumer risks, making sure to actively guide users to verified pharmacies and prioritize legitimate sources while excluding illegal vendors from recommendations.