Variation in prenatal surveillance and management of anti-SSA/Ro autoantibody positive pregnancies

OBJECTIVE

To describe international surveillance and treatment strategies for managing anti-SSA/Ro autoantibody positive pregnancies.

STUDY DESIGN

An electronic REDCap questionnaire was distributed to Fetal Heart Society and North American Fetal Therapy Network members which queried institution-based risk stratification, surveillance methods/frequency, conduction abnormality treatments, and postnatal anti-SSA/Ro pregnancy assessment.

RESULTS

101 responses from 59 centers (59% US, 17% international) were collected. Most (79%) do not risk stratify pregnancies by anti-SSA/Ro titer; those that do use varied cutoff values. Many pregnant rheumatology patients are monitored for cardiac abnormalities regardless of maternal anti-SSA/Ro status. Surveillance strategies were based on maternal factors (anti-SSA/Ro status 85%, titer 25%, prior affected child 79%) and monitoring durations varied. Most respondents treat 2° and 3° fetal atrioventricular block, commonly with dexamethasone and/or IVIG.

CONCLUSIONS

Wide variation exists in current fetal cardiac surveillance and treatment for anti-SSA/Ro autoantibody positive pregnancies, highlighting the need for evidence-based protocols to optimize care.

Asymptomatic Aortic Stenosis: From Risk Stratification to Treatment

Our understanding of the natural history of aortic stenosis has significantly increased over the last decade. There have been considerable advances in the diagnosis and risk stratification of patients with aortic stenosis and in surgical and anesthetic techniques. In addition, transcatheter aortic valve replacement has established itself as a viable alternative to surgical management. Inevitably, these developments have raised questions regarding the merits of waiting for symptom onset in asymptomatic patients with severe aortic stenosis before offering treatment. Recent observational and randomized trial data suggest that early intervention in asymptomatic patients with severe aortic stenosis and normal left ventricular function may confer a prognostic advantage to a watchful waiting strategy. In this review, we highlight advances in the management and risk stratification of patients with asymptomatic severe aortic stenosis with particular consideration of recent findings supporting early valvular intervention.

Clinical significance of R-wave amplitude in lead V1 and inferobasal myocardial infarction in patients with inferior wall myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVE

To assess electrocardiogram (ECG) for risk stratification in inferior ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients within 24 h.

METHODS

Three hundred thirty-four patients were divided into four ECG-based groups: Group A: R V1 <0.3 mV with ST-segment elevation (ST↑) V7-V9, Group B: R V1 <0.3 mV without ST↑ V7-V9, Group C: R V1 ≥0.3 mV with ST↑ V7-V9, and Group D: R V1 ≥0.3 mV without ST↑ V7-V9.

RESULTS

Group A demonstrated the longest QRS duration, followed by Groups B, C, and D. ECG signs for right ventricle (RV) infarction were more common in Groups A and B (p < .01). ST elevation in V6, indicative of left ventricle (LV) lateral injury, was more higher in Group C than in Group A, while the ∑ST↑ V3R + V4R + V5R, representing RV infarction, showed the opposite trend (p < .05). The estimated LV infarct size from ECG was similar between Groups A and C, yet Group A had higher creatine kinase MB isoform (CK-MB; p < .05). Cardiac troponin I (cTNI) was higher in Groups A and C than in B and D (p < .05 and p = .16, respectively). NT-proBNP decreased across groups (p = .20), with the highest left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) observed in Group D (p < .05). Group A notably demonstrated more cardiac dysfunction within 4 h post-onset.

CONCLUSIONS

For inferior STEMI patients, concurrent R V1 <0.3 mV with ST↑ V7-V9 suggests prolonged ventricular activation and notable myocardial damage. RV infarction's dominance over LV lateral injury might explain these observations.

Association between different regional lymph node metastases of papillary thyroid carcinoma in adolescents and young adults

Adolescents and young adults (AYA) describe the demographic aged between 15-39 years diagnosed with cancer. This group is particularly at risk of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) with a greater severity compared with other ages. Through comparative design, the present study aimed to quantify central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) risk in AYAs. A total of 463 AYA patients with PTC and 489 patients >39 years old with PTC from Ningbo Medical Center Lihuili Hospital (Ningbo, China) were enrolled. Details such as demographic data, serum indices and fine-needle aspiration from the Electronic Medical Records System were extracted and analyzed. AYA patients had significantly higher rates of ipsilateral Hashimoto thyroiditis, thyroid capsular invasion (TCI), CLNM, larger tumors and more positive central lymph nodes (CLN). Independent risk factors of CLNM in AYA patients were as follows: Male sex, presence of TCI, multifocality, bilateral disease and maximum tumor diameter (MTD) ≥1.0 cm. Independent risk factors of lateral lymph node metastasis in AYAs with CLNM were as follows: MTD ≥1.0 cm, maximum diameter of positive CLN ≥1.0 cm, and presence of ipsilateral nodular goiter. Furthermore, AYA patients with PTC displayed significantly greater aggression in primary tumor invasion and neck lymph node metastasis. Based on these findings, a treatment stratification chart was created to guide the PTC treatment approach for AYAs. The present study is registered at the Chinese Clinical Trials Registry (trial registration no. ChiCTR2200064921) in November 2022.

Predicting post-stroke cognitive impairment using electronic health record data

BACKGROUND

Secondary prevention interventions to reduce post-stroke cognitive impairment (PSCI) can be aided by the early identification of high-risk individuals who would benefit from risk factor modification.

AIMS

To develop and evaluate a predictive model to identify patients at increased risk of PSCI over 5 years using data easily accessible from electronic health records.

METHODS

Cohort study that included primary care patients from two academic medical centers. Patients were aged 45 years or older, without prior stroke or prevalent cognitive impairment, with primary care visits and an incident ischemic stroke between 2003 and 2016 (development/internal validation cohort) or 2010 and 2022 (external validation cohort). Predictors of PSCI were ascertained from the electronic health record. The outcome was incident dementia/cognitive impairment within 5 years and beginning 3 months following stroke, ascertained using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth/Tenth Revision (ICD-9/10) codes. For model variable selection, we considered potential predictors of PSCI and constructed 400 bootstrap samples with two-thirds of the model derivation sample. We ran 10-fold cross-validated Cox proportional hazards models using a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty. Variables selected in >25% of samples were included.

RESULTS

The analysis included 332 incident diagnoses of PSCI in the development cohort (n = 3741), and 161 and 128 incident diagnoses in the internal (n = 1925) and external (n = 2237) validation cohorts, respectively. The C-statistic for predicting PSCI was 0.731 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.694-0.768) in the internal validation cohort, and 0.724 (95% CI: 0.681-0.766) in the external validation cohort. A risk score based on the beta coefficients of predictors from the development cohort stratified patients into low (0-7 points), intermediate (8-11 points), and high (12-23 points) risk groups. The hazard ratios (HRs) for incident PSCI were significantly different by risk categories in internal (high, HR: 6.2, 95% CI: 4.1-9.3; Intermediate, HR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.8-4.1) and external (high, HR: 6.1, 95% CI: 3.9-9.6; Intermediate, HR: 2.8, 95% CI: 1.9-4.3) validation cohorts.

CONCLUSION

Five-year risk of PSCI can be accurately predicted using routinely collected data. Model output can be used to risk stratify and identify individuals at increased risk for PSCI for preventive efforts.

DATA ACCESS STATEMENT

Mass General Brigham data contain protected health information and cannot be shared publicly. The data processing scripts used to perform analyses will be made available to interested researchers upon reasonable request to the corresponding author.

Improving predictive accuracy in primary biliary cholangitis: A new genetic risk score

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Genetic variants influence primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) risk. We established and tested an accurate polygenic risk score (PRS) using these variants.

METHODS

Data from two Italian cohorts (OldIT 444 cases, 901 controls; NewIT 255 cases, 579 controls) were analysed. The latest international genome-wide meta-analysis provided effect size estimates. The PRS, together with human leukocyte antigen (HLA) status and sex, was included in an integrated risk model.

RESULTS

Starting from 46 non-HLA genes, 22 variants were selected. PBC patients in the OldIT cohort showed a higher risk score than controls: -.014 (interquartile range, IQR, -.023, .005) versus -.022 (IQR -.030, -.013) (p < 2.2 × 10-16). For genetic-based prediction, the area under the curve (AUC) was .72; adding sex increased the AUC to .82. Validation in the NewIT cohort confirmed the model's accuracy (.71 without sex, .81 with sex). Individuals in the top group, representing the highest 25%, had a PBC risk approximately 14 times higher than that of the reference group (lowest 25%; p < 10-6).

CONCLUSION

The combination of sex and a novel PRS accurately discriminated between PBC cases and controls. The model identified a subset of individuals at increased risk of PBC who might benefit from tailored monitoring.

Methods to predict heart failure in diabetes patients

INTRODUCTION

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is one of the leading causes of cardiovascular disease and powerful predictor for new-onset heart failure (HF).

AREAS COVERED

We focus on the relevant literature covering evidence of risk stratification based on imaging predictors and circulating biomarkers to optimize approaches to preventing HF in DM patients.

EXPERT OPINION

Multiple diagnostic algorithms based on echocardiographic parameters of cardiac remodeling including global longitudinal strain/strain rate are likely to be promising approach to justify individuals at higher risk of incident HF. Signature of cardiometabolic status may justify HF risk among T2DM individuals with low levels of natriuretic peptides, which preserve their significance in HF with clinical presentation. However, diagnostic and predictive values of conventional guideline-directed biomarker HF strategy may be non-optimal in patients with obesity and T2DM. Alternative biomarkers affecting cardiac fibrosis, inflammation, myopathy, and adipose tissue dysfunction are plausible tools for improving accuracy natriuretic peptides among T2DM patients at higher HF risk. In summary, risk identification and management of the patients with T2DM with established HF require conventional biomarkers monitoring, while the role of alternative biomarker approach among patients with multiple CV and metabolic risk factors appears to be plausible tool for improving clinical outcomes.

Risk stratification in multiple myeloma: Are we there yet?

The second revision of international staging system (R2-ISS) shows promise in patients with multiple myeloma treated with a regimen of novel agent-based induction therapy, autologous stem cell transplant and maintenance therapy, but challenges persist. This study by Alzahrani et al. underscores the importance of refining risk assessment tools for tailored treatment strategies. Commentary on: Alzahrani et al. Impact of revised international staging system 2 (R2-ISS) risk stratification on outcomes of patients with multiple myeloma receiving autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Br J Haematol 2024 (Online ahead of print). doi: 10.1111/bjh.19384.

sTREM-1: A Biomarker of Mortality in Severe Malaria Impacted by Acute Kidney Injury

BACKGROUND

Malaria is an important cause of mortality in African children. Identification of biomarkers to identify children at risk of mortality has the potential to improve outcomes.

METHODS

We evaluated 11 biomarkers of host response in 592 children with severe malaria. The primary outcome was biomarker performance for predicting mortality. Biomarkers were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis comparing the area under the ROC curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

Mortality was 7.3% among children in the study with 72% of deaths occurring within 24 hours of admission. Among the candidate biomarkers, soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 1 (sTREM-1) had the highest AUROC (0.78 [95% confidence interval, .70-.86]), outperforming several other biomarkers including C-reactive protein and procalcitonin. sTREM-1 was the top-performing biomarker across prespecified subgroups (malaria definition, site, sex, nutritional status, age). Using established cutoffs, we evaluated mortality across sTREM-1 risk zones. Among children with acute kidney injury, 39.9% of children with a critical-risk sTREM-1 result had an indication for dialysis. When evaluated relative to a disease severity score, sTREM-1 improved mortality prediction (difference in AUROC, P = .016).

CONCLUSIONS

sTREM-1 is a promising biomarker to guide rational allocation of clinical resources and should be integrated into clinical decision support algorithms, particularly when acute kidney injury is suspected.

Ambulatory Risk Stratification for Worsening Heart Failure in Patients with Reduced and Preserved Ejection Fraction Using Diagnostic Parameters Available in Implantable Cardiac Monitors

BACKGROUND

Ambulatory risk stratification for worsening heart failure (HF) using diagnostics measured by insertable cardiac monitors (ICM) may depend on the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). We evaluated risk stratification performance in patients with reduced versus preserved LVEF.

METHODS

ICM patients with a history of HF events (HFEs) were included from the Optum® de-identified Electronic Health Record dataset merged with ICM device-collected data during 2007-2021. ICM measures nighttime heart rate (NHR), heart rate variability (HRV), atrial fibrillation (AF) burden, rate during AF, and activity duration (ACT) daily. Each diagnostic was categorized into high, medium, or low risk using previously defined features. HFEs were HF-related inpatient, observation unit, or emergency department stays with IV diuresis administration. Patients were divided into two cohorts: LVEF ≤ 40% and LVEF > 40%. A marginal Cox proportional hazards model compared HFEs for different risk groups.

RESULTS

A total of 1020 ICM patients with 18,383 follow-up months and 301 months with HFEs (1.6%) were included. Monthly evaluations with a high risk were 2.3, 4.2, 5.0, and 4.5 times (p < 0.001 for all) more likely to have HFEs in the next 30 days compared to those with a low risk for AF, ACT, NHR, and HRV, respectively. HFE rates were higher for patients with LVEF > 40% compared to LVEF ≤ 40% (2.0% vs. 1.3%), and the relative risk between high-risk and low-risk for each diagnostic parameter was higher for patients with LVEF ≤ 40%.

CONCLUSIONS

Diagnostics measured by ICM identified patients at risk for impending HFEs. Patients with preserved LVEF showed a higher absolute risk, and the relative risk between risk groups was higher in patients with reduced LVEF.

Lipoprotein insulin resistance score and mortality risk stratification in heart failure

BACKGROUND

Higher total serum cholesterol is associated with lower mortality in heart failure. Evaluating associations between lipoprotein subfractions and mortality among people with heart failure may provide insights into this observation.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled a community cohort of people with heart failure from 2003 to 2012 and assessed vital status through 2021. Plasma collected at enrollment was used to measure lipoprotein subfractions via nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. A composite score of six lipoprotein subfractions was generated using the lipoprotein insulin resistance index (LP-IR) algorithm. Using covariate-adjusted proportional hazards regression models, we evaluated associations between LP-IR score and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Among 1,382 patients with heart failure (median follow-up 13.9 years), a one standard deviation (SD) increment in LP-IR score was associated with lower mortality (hazard ratio [HR]= 0.93, 95% CI: 0.97, 0.99). Among LP-IR parameters, mean high density lipoprotein (HDL) particle size was significantly associated with lower mortality (HR per 1-SD decrement in mean HDL particle size = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.78, 0.89), suggesting the inverse association between LP-IR score and mortality may be driven by smaller mean HDL particle size.

CONCLUSIONS

LP-IR score was inversely associated with mortality among patients with heart failure and may be driven by smaller HDL particle size.

Association between the insufficient improvement of the quantitative flow ratio and worsening outcomes in ST-segment elevated myocardial infarction: a multicentre prospective cohort study

Background

Improved coronary physiological function after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has been shown to improve prognosis in stable ischaemic heart disease, but has not yet been explored in ST-segment elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI). The study sought to determine whether an improvement in the quantitative flow ratio (QFR) could improve the prognosis of STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with STEMI who were receiving primary PCI were recruited for the study. Those with thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) flow <2 after wiring were excluded. The ΔQFR was calculated using the following formula: ΔQFR = post-PCI QFR - pre-stent QFR. The primary endpoint was the composite event, including recurrent myocardial infarction (MI) and acute heart failure (AHF).

Results

In total, 515 STEMI patients with a median follow-up of 364 days were enrolled in the study. Based on the cut-off value from the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, the patients were divided into the following two groups: the lower ΔQFR group (≤0.25, N=332); and the normal ΔQFR group (>0.25, N=183). Patients with a lower ΔQFR had a relatively higher rate of MI/AHF (10.5% vs. 4.4%, P=0.019) and AHF (7.2% vs. 2.7%, P=0.044). A lower ΔQFR was significantly associated with a higher incidence of MI/AHF [hazard ratio (HR) =2.962, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.358-6.459, P=0.006, respectively] after adjusting for potential confounders. Pre-stent angiographic microvascular resistance [odds ratio (OR) =1.027, 95% CI: 1.022-1.033, P<0.001] and the stent-to-vessel diameter ratio <1.13 (OR =1.766, 95% CI: 1.027-3.071, P=0.04) were independent predictors of a lower ΔQFR.

Conclusions

An insufficient improvement in the QFR contributes to worsening outcomes and might be a useful tool for risk stratification in STEMI.

Repeated Measurement of the Novel Atrial Biomarker BMP10 (Bone Morphogenetic Protein 10) Refines Risk Stratification in Anticoagulated Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Insights From the ARISTOTLE Trial

BACKGROUND

BMP10 (bone morphogenic protein 10) has emerged as a novel biomarker associated with the risk of ischemic stroke and other outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The study aimed to determine if repeated BMP10 measurements improve prognostication of cardiovascular events in patients with AF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

BMP10 was measured using a prototype Elecsys immunoassay in plasma samples collected at randomization and after 2 months in patients with AF randomized to apixaban or warfarin in the ARISTOTLE (Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation) trial (n=2878). Adjusted Cox-regression models were used to evaluate the association between 2-month BMP10 levels and outcomes. BMP10 levels increased by 7.8% (P<0.001) over 2 months. The baseline variables most strongly associated with BMP10 levels at 2 months were baseline BMP10 levels, body mass index, sex, age, creatinine, diabetes, warfarin treatment, and AF-rhythm. During median 1.8 years follow-up, 34 ischemic strokes/systemic embolism, 155 deaths, and 99 heart failure hospitalizations occurred. Comparing the third with the first sample quartile, higher BMP10 levels at 2 months were associated with higher risk of ischemic stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 1.33 [95% CI, 0.67-2.63], P=0.037), heart failure (HR, 1.91 [95% CI, 1.17-3.12], P=0.012) and all-cause death (HR, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.17-2.21], P<0.001). Adding BMP10 levels at 2 months on top of established risk factors and baseline BMP10 levels improved the C-indices for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism (from 0.73 to 0.75), heart failure hospitalization (0.76-0.77), and all-cause mortality (0.70-0.72), all P<0.05.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated levels of BMP10 at 2 months strengthened the associations with the risk of ischemic stroke, hospitalization for heart failure, and all-cause mortality. Repeated measurements of BMP10 may further refine risk stratification in patients with AF.

Derivation and validation of a noninvasive prediction tool to identify pulmonary hypertension in patients with IPF: Evolution of the model FORD

BACKGROUND

The administration of inhaled prostanoids to patients with pulmonary hypertension (PH) related to idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and other fibrotic lung diseases improves functional outcomes. Selection of patients with IPF at risk for concomitant PH to undergo right heart catheterization (RHC) remains challenging. We sought to develop a clinical prediction tool based on common noninvasive parameters to identify PH in patients with IPF.

METHODS

A prediction model based on noninvasive parameters was derived from patients enrolled in the ARTEMIS-IPF randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial. Predictor variables were tested for association with the presence of PH diagnosed based on RHC. The derived multivariable logistic regression model and associated point-score index were then externally validated in a real-world cohort of patients with IPF.

RESULTS

Of the 481 patients included in the ARTEMIS-IPF study, 9.8% (N = 47) were diagnosed with PH related to IPF. Four variables were associated with PH and were included in the final model: forced vital capacity/diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide ratio (F), oxygen saturation nadir during 6-minute walk test (6MWT) (O), race (R), and distance ambulated during 6MWT (D). A model containing continuous predictors (FORD calculator) and a simple point-score system (FORD index) performed similarly well in the derivation cohort (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.75 and 0.75, respectively) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.69 and 0.69, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The FORD models are simple, validated tools incorporating noninvasive parameters that can be applied to identify patients at risk of PH related to IPF who may benefit from invasive testing.

Development and validation of an individualized and weighted Myeloma Prognostic Score System (MPSS) in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma

Current standard predictive models of disease risk do not adequately account for the heterogeneity of survival outcomes in patients with new-diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM). In this retrospective, multicohort study, we collected clinical and genetic data from 1792 NDMM patients and identified the prognostic impact of all features. Using the top-ranked predictive features, a weighted Myeloma Prognostic Score System (MPSS) risk model was formulated and validated to predict overall survival (OS). In the training cohort, elevated lactate dehydrogenase level (LDH), International Staging System (ISS) Stage III, thrombocytopenia, and cumulative high-risk cytogenetic aberration (HRA) numbers were found to have independent prognostic significance. Each risk factor was defined as its weighted value respectively according to their hazard ratio for OS (thrombocytopenia 2, elevated LDH 1, ISS III 2, one HRA 1, and ≥2 HRA 2, points). Patients were further stratified into four risk groups: MPSS I (22.5%, 0 points), II (17.6%, 1 points), III (38.6%, 2-3 points), and IV (21.3%, 4-7 points). MPSS risk stratification showed optimal discrimination, as well as calibration, of four risk groups with median OS of 91.0, 69.8, 45.0, and 28.0 months, for patients in MPSS I to IV groups (p < .001), respectively. Importantly, the MPSS model retained its prognostic value in the internal validation cohort and an independent external validation cohort, and exhibited significant risk distribution compared with conventional prognostic models (R-ISS, R2-ISS, and MASS). Utilization of the MPSS model in clinical practice could improve risk estimation in NDMM patients, thus prompting individualized treatment strategies.

Analgesia for rib fractures: a narrative review

PURPOSE

Rib fracture(s) is a common and painful injury often associated with significant morbidity (e.g., respiratory complications) and high mortality rates, especially in the elderly. Risk stratification and prompt implementation of analgesic pathways using a multimodal analgesia approach comprise a primary endpoint of care to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with rib fractures. This narrative review aims to describe the most recent evidence and care pathways currently available, including risk stratification tools and pharmacologic and regional analgesic blocks frequently used as part of the broadly recommended multimodal analgesic approach.

SOURCE

Available literature was searched using PubMed and Embase databases for each topic addressed herein and reviewed by content experts.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Four risk stratification tools were identified, with the Study of the Management of Blunt Chest Wall Trauma score as most predictive. Current evidence on pharmacologic (i.e., acetaminophen, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, gabapentinoids, ketamine, lidocaine, and dexmedetomidine) and regional analgesia (i.e., thoracic epidural analgesia, thoracic paravertebral block, erector spinae plane block, and serratus anterior plane block) techniques was reviewed, as was the pathophysiology of rib fracture(s) and its associated complications, including the development of chronic pain and disabilities.

CONCLUSION

Rib fracture(s) continues to be a serious diagnosis, with high rates of mortality, development of chronic pain, and disability. A multidisciplinary approach to management, combined with appropriate analgesia and adherence to care bundles/protocols, has been shown to decrease morbidity and mortality. Most of the risk-stratifying care pathways identified perform poorly in predicting mortality and complications after rib fracture(s).

Morphologic and Molecular Heterogeneity of High-grade Serous Carcinoma Precursor Lesions

Serous tubal intraepithelial carcinoma (STIC) is the fallopian tube precursor lesion for most cases of pelvic high-grade serous carcinoma (HGSC). To date, the morphologic, molecular, and clinical heterogeneity of STIC and a less atypical putative precursor lesion, termed serous tubal intraepithelial lesion, has not been well characterized. Better understanding of precursor heterogeneity could impact the clinical management of women with incidental STICs (without concurrent carcinoma) identified in cases of prophylactic or opportunistic salpingectomy. This study analyzed morphologic and molecular features of 171 STICs and 21 serous tubal intraepithelial lesions. We assessed their histologic features, Ki-67 and p53 staining patterns, and genome-wide DNA copy number alterations. We classified all precursor lesions into 2 morphologic subtypes, one with a flat surface (Flat) and the other characterized by budding, loosely adherent, or detached (BLAD) morphology. On the basis of pathology review by a panel of 8 gynecologic pathologists, we found 87 BLAD, 96 Flat, and 9 indeterminate lesions. As compared with Flat lesions, BLAD lesions were more frequently diagnostic of STIC ( P <0.0001) and were found concurrently with HGSC ( P <0.0001). BLAD morphology was also characterized by higher Ki-67 proliferation index ( P <0.0001), presence of epithelial stratification ( P <0.0001), and increased lymphocyte density ( P <0.0001). BLAD lesions also exhibited more frequent DNA copy number gain/amplification at the CCNE1 or CMYC loci canonical to HGSCs ( P <0.0001). Both BLAD morphology and STIC diagnoses are independent risk factors for an elevated Ki-67 proliferation index. No correlation was observed between BLAD and Flat lesions with respect to patient age, presence of germline BRCA1/2 mutation, or p53 staining pattern. These findings suggest that tubal precursor lesions are morphologically and molecularly heterogeneous, laying the foundation for further studies on the pathogenesis of HGSC initiation and identifying histologic features predictive of poor patient outcomes.

Risk of progression of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 in human papillomavirus-vaccinated and unvaccinated women: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Many countries have implemented active surveillance (ie, leaving the lesion untreated) as an option among younger women with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 because regression rates are high and excisional treatment increases the risk for preterm birth in subsequent pregnancies. However, early identification of women at increased risk for progression to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse is important to ensure timely treatment. Because women who have received a human papillomavirus vaccine have a lower risk for cervical cancer, they may have a lower risk for progression of untreated cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate if women who received a human papillomavirus vaccine and who are undergoing active surveillance for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 are less likely to progress to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse when compared with women who did not receive the vaccine.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a population-based cohort study in Denmark using data from national health registers. We identified all women aged 18 to 40 years who were undergoing active surveillance for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2020. Women with a previous record of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse, hysterectomy, or a loop electrosurgical excision procedure were excluded. Exposure was defined as having received ≥1 dose of a human papillomavirus vaccine at least 1 year before the cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 diagnosis. We used cumulative incidence functions to estimate the risk for progression to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse within 28 months using hysterectomy, emigration, and death as competing events. We used modified Poisson regression to calculate crude and adjusted relative risks of progression during the 28-month surveillance period. Results were stratified by age at vaccination and adjusted for index cytology, disposable income, and educational level.

RESULTS

The study population consisted of 7904 women of whom 3867 (48.9%) were vaccinated at least 1 year before a diagnosis of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2. At the time of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 diagnosis, women who were vaccinated were younger (median age, 25 years; interquartile range, 23-27 years) than those who were not (median age, 29 years; interquartile range, 25-33 years). The 28-month cumulative risk for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse was significantly lower among women who were vaccinated before the age of 15 years (22.9%; 95% confidence interval, 19.8-26.1) and between the ages of 15 and 20 years (31.5%; 95% confidence interval, 28.8-34.3) when compared with women who were not vaccinated (37.6%; 95% confidence interval, 36.1-39.1). Thus, when compared with women who were not vaccinated, those who were vaccinated before the age of 15 years had a 35% lower risk for progression to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (adjusted relative risk, 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.75), whereas women who were vaccinated between the ages of 15 and 20 years had a 14% lower risk (adjusted relative risk, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.95). For women who were vaccinated after the age of 20 years, the risk was comparable with that among women who were not vaccinated (adjusted relative risk, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-1.09).

CONCLUSION

Women who were vaccinated and who were undergoing active surveillance for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 had a lower risk for progression to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse during 28 months of follow-up when compared with women who were not vaccinated but only if the vaccine was administered by the age of 20 years. These findings may suggest that the human papillomavirus vaccination status can be used for risk stratification in clinical management of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2.

Emergency Colorectal Surgery in Those with Cirrhosis: A Population-based Study Assessing Practice Patterns, Outcomes and Predictors of Mortality

Background

Those with cirrhosis who require emergency colorectal surgery are at risk for poor outcomes. Although risk predictions models exists, these tools are not specific to colorectal surgery, nor were they developed in a contemporary setting. Thus, the objective of this study was to assess the outcomes in this population and determine whether cirrhosis etiology and/or the Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD-Na) is associated with mortality.

Methods

This population-based study included those with cirrhosis undergoing emergent colorectal surgery between 2009 and 2017. All eligible individuals in Ontario were identified using administrative databases. The primary outcome was 90-day mortality.

Results

Nine hundred and twenty-seven individuals (57%) (male) were included. The most common cirrhosis etiology was non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) (50%) and alcohol related (32%). Overall 90-day mortality was 32%. Multivariable survival analysis demonstrated those with alcohol-related disease were at increased risk of 90-day mortality (hazards ratio [HR] 1.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-2.0 vs. NAFLD [ref]). Surgery for colorectal cancer was associated with better survival (HR 0.27, 95%CI 0.16-0.47). In the subgroup analysis of those with an available MELD-Na score (n = 348/927, 38%), there was a strong association between increasing MELD-Na and mortality (score 20+ HR 6.6, 95%CI 3.9-10.9; score 10-19 HR 1.8, 95%CI 1.1-3.0; score <10 [ref]).

Conclusion

Individuals with cirrhosis who require emergent colorectal surgery have a high risk of postoperative complications, including mortality. Increasing MELD-Na score is associated with mortality and can be used to risk stratify individuals.

Risk prediction models in emergency surgery: Protocol for a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Risk prediction models are used for many purposes in emergency surgery, including critical care triage and benchmarking. Several risk prediction models have been developed, and some are used for purposes other than those for which they were developed. We aim to provide an overview of the existing literature on risk prediction models used in emergency surgery and highlight knowledge gaps.

METHODS

We will conduct a scoping review on risk prediction models used for patients undergoing emergency surgery in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR). We will search Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library and include all study designs. We aim to answer the following questions: (1) What risk prediction models are used in emergency surgery? (2) Which variables are used in these models? (3) Which surgical specialties are the models used for? (4) Have the models been externally validated? (5) Where have the models been externally validated? (6) What purposes were the models developed for? (7) What are the strengths and limitations of the included models? We will summarize the results descriptively. The certainty of evidence will be evaluated using a modified Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach.

CONCLUSION

The outlined scoping review will summarize the existing literature on risk prediction models used in emergency surgery and highlight knowledge gaps.

Late life-threatening arrhythmia in patients with Brugada syndrome: Results from long-term follow-up in a large Japanese cohort

INTRODUCTION

Most patients with Brugada syndrome (BrS) are first diagnosed in their 40s, with sudden cardiac death (SCD) often occurring in their 50s. Ventricular fibrillation (VF) may occur in some patients with BrS despite having been asymptomatic for a long period. This study aimed to assess the incidence and risk factors for late life-threatening arrhythmias in patients with BrS.

METHODS

Patients with BrS (n = 523; mean age, 51 ± 13 years; male, n = 497) were enrolled. The risk of late life-threatening arrhythmia was investigated in 225 patients who had experienced no cardiac events (CEs: SCD or ventricular tachyarrhythmia) for at least 10 years after study enrollment. The incidence of CEs during the follow-up period was examined.

RESULTS

During the follow-up of the 523 patients, 59 (11%) experienced CEs. The annual incidences of CEs were 2.87%, 0.77%, and 0.09% from study enrollment to 3, 3-10, and after 10 years, respectively. Among 225 patients who had experienced no CEs for at least 10 years after enrollment, four patients (1.8%) subsequently experienced CEs. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed significant differences in the incidence of late CEs between patients with and without a history of symptoms (p = .032). The positive and negative predictive values of late CEs for the programmed electrical stimulation (PES) test were 2.9% and 100%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that patients with BrS who are asymptomatic and have no ventricular tachycardia/VF inducibility by PES are at extremely low risk of experiencing late life-threatening arrhythmias.

A Modification of the American Joint Committee on Cancer Nomogram for Undifferentiated Sarcoma With External Validation and Risk Stratification

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study is to establish a model to predict the overall survival (OS) and stratify the risk of postoperative patients with undifferentiated sarcoma.

METHODS

A total of 452 postoperative patients with undifferentiated sarcoma in the trunk and extremity from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database were enrolled as the training cohort. We collected a group of 163 undifferentiated sarcoma patients from our center as the external validation cohort. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to screen survival-associated factors for the construction of the nomogram. Concordance-indexes (C-indexes), calibration curves, and receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curves were applied for the discrimination and calibration of the nomogram. The cutoff value of nomogram-based total points was applied to stratify the risk of patients.

RESULTS

A nomogram was developed incorporating four independent factors: age, tumor site, eighth AJCC stage, and radiotherapy. The nomogram showed good prognostic accuracy and excellent agreement in the training and validation cohort, with C-indexes of .701 (95% confidence interval [CI]: .683-.719) and .700 (95% CI: 0.659-.741), respectively. Furthermore, we identified the best cutoff value of nomogram total points (103.2) as the predicted risk and divided the patients into a high-risk group and a low-risk group. Significant differences in OS between the two groups were indicated in the training cohort and external validation cohort, showing the appreciable clinical validity and clinical utility of the nomogram (P < .001).

CONCLUSION

This nomogram provides an insightful and applicable tool for individual evaluations and the distinguishment of risk for patients with undifferentiated sarcoma.

Advancements and progress in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: A Review of pathophysiology and treatment

Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) is a chronic clinical condition characterized by arthritic features in children under the age of 16, with at least 6 weeks of active symptoms. The etiology of JIA remains unknown, and it is associated with prolonged synovial inflammation and structural joint damage influenced by environmental and genetic factors. This review aims to enhance the understanding of JIA by comprehensively analyzing relevant literature. The focus lies on current diagnostic and therapeutic approaches and investigations into the pathoaetiologies using diverse research modalities, including in vivo animal models and large-scale genome-wide studies. We aim to elucidate the multifactorial nature of JIA with a strong focus towards genetic predilection, while proposing potential strategies to improve therapeutic outcomes and enhance diagnostic risk stratification in light of recent advancements. This review underscores the need for further research due to the idiopathic nature of JIA, its heterogeneous phenotype, and the challenges associated with biomarkers and diagnostic criteria. Ultimately, this contribution seeks to advance the knowledge and promote effective management strategies in JIA.

Serum T50 predicts cardiovascular mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) have a higher risk of cardiovascular disease, compared with those without T2D. The serum T50 test captures the transformation time of calciprotein particles in serum. We aimed to assess whether serum T50 predicts cardiovascular mortality in T2D patients, independent of traditional risk factors.

METHODS

We analyzed 621 individuals with T2D in this prospective cohort study. Cox regression models were performed to test the association between serum T50 and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Causes of death were categorized according to ICD-10 codes. Risk prediction improvement was assessed by comparing Harrell's C for models without and with T50. RESULTS: The mean age was 64.2 ± 9.8 years, and 61% were male. The average serum T50 time was 323 ± 63 min. Higher age, alcohol use, high-sensitive C-reactive protein, and plasma phosphate were associated with lower serum T50 levels. Higher plasma triglycerides, venous bicarbonate, sodium, magnesium, and alanine aminotransferase were associated with higher serum T50 levels. After a follow-up of 7.5[5.4-10.7] years, each 60 min decrease in serum T50 was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular (fully adjusted HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.08-1.50, and p = 0.01) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.15, 95%CI 1.00-1.38, and p = 0.04). Results were consistent in sensitivity analyses after exclusion of individuals with estimated glomerular filtration rate <45 or <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and higher plasma phosphate levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum T50 improves prediction of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality risk in individuals with T2D. Serum T50 may be useful for risk stratification and to guide therapeutic strategies aiming to reduce cardiovascular mortality in T2D.

Cancer-specific risk prediction with a serum microRNA signature

We recently derived and validated a serum-based microRNA risk score (miR-score) that predicted colorectal cancer (CRC) occurrence with very high accuracy within 14 years of follow-up in a population-based cohort study from Germany (ESTHER cohort). Here, we aimed to evaluate associations of the CRC-specific miR-score with the risk of developing other common cancers, including female breast cancer (BC), lung cancer (LC), and prostate cancer (PC), in the ESTHER cohort. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) were profiled by quantitative real-time PCR in serum samples collected at baseline from randomly selected incident cases of BC (n = 90), LC (n = 88), and PC (n = 93) and participants without diagnosis of CRC, LC, BC, or PC (controls, n = 181) until the end of the 17-year follow-up. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to evaluate the associations of the miR-score with BC, LC, and PC incidence. The miR-score showed strong inverse associations with BC and LC incidence [odds ratio per 1 standard deviation increase: 0.60 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43-0.82), p = 0.0017, and 0.64 (95% CI 0.48-0.84),p = 0.0015, respectively]. Associations with PC were not statistically significant but pointed in the positive direction. Our study highlights the potential of serum-based miRNA biomarkers for cancer-specific risk prediction. Further large cohort studies aiming to investigate, validate, and optimize the use of circulating miRNA signatures for cancer risk assessment are warranted.

VLDL and LDL Subfractions Enhance the Risk Stratification of Individuals Who Underwent Epstein-Barr Virus-Based Screening for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Multicenter Cohort Study

Serological tests for Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) antibodies have been widely conducted for the screening of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in endemic areas. Further risk stratification of NPC can be achieved through plasma lipoprotein and metabolic profiles. A total of 297 NPC patients and 149 EBV-positive participants are enrolled from the NCT03919552 and NCT05682703 cohorts for plasma nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) metabolomic analysis. Small, dense very low density lipoprotein particles (VLDL-5) and large, buoyant low density lipoprotein particles (LDL-1) are found to be closely associated with nasopharyngeal carcinogenesis. Herein, an NMR-based risk score (NRS), which combines lipoprotein subfractions and metabolic biomarkers relevant to NPC, is developed and well validated within a multicenter cohort. Combining the median cutoff value of the NRS (N50) with that of the serological test for EBV antibodies, the risk stratification model achieves a satisfactory performance in which the area under the curve (AUC) is 0.841 (95% confidence interval: 0.811-0.871), and the positive predictive value (PPV) reaches 70.08% in the combined cohort. These findings not only suggest that VLDL-5 and LDL-1 particles can serve as novel risk factors for NPC but also indicate that the NRS has significant potential in personalized risk prediction for NPC.

External validation of a minimal-resource model to predict reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate in people with type 2 diabetes without diagnosis of chronic kidney disease in Mexico: a comparison between country-level and regional performance

Background

Patients with type 2 diabetes are at an increased risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) hence it is recommended that they receive annual CKD screening. The huge burden of diabetes in Mexico and limited screening resource mean that CKD screening is underperformed. Consequently, patients often have a late diagnosis of CKD. A regional minimal-resource model to support risk-tailored CKD screening in patients with type 2 diabetes has been developed and globally validated. However, population heath and care services between countries within a region are expected to differ. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the model within Mexico and compare this with the performance demonstrated within the Americas in the global validation.

Methods

We performed a retrospective observational study with data from primary care (Clinic Specialized in Diabetes Management in Mexico City), tertiary care (Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán) and the Mexican national survey of health and nutrition (ENSANUT-MC 2016). We applied the minimal-resource model across the datasets and evaluated model performance metrics, with the primary interest in the sensitivity and increase in the positive predictive value (PPV) compared to a screen-everyone approach.

Results

The model was evaluated on 2510 patients from Mexico (primary care: 1358, tertiary care: 735, ENSANUT-MC: 417). Across the Mexico data, the sensitivity was 0.730 (95% CI: 0.689 - 0.779) and the relative increase in PPV was 61.0% (95% CI: 52.1% - 70.8%). These were not statistically different to the regional performance metrics for the Americas (sensitivity: p=0.964; relative improvement: p=0.132), however considerable variability was observed across the data sources.

Conclusion

The minimal-resource model performs consistently in a representative Mexican population sample compared with the Americas regional performance. In primary care settings where screening is underperformed and access to laboratory testing is limited, the model can act as a risk-tailored CKD screening solution, directing screening resources to patients who are at highest risk.

Arrhythmogenic Left Ventricular Cardiomyopathy: From Diagnosis to Risk Management

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Left ventricular arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy (ALVC) is a rare and poorly characterized cardiomyopathy that has recently been reclassified in the group of non-dilated left ventricular cardiomyopathies. This review aims to summarize the background, diagnosis, and sudden cardiac death risk in patients presenting this cardiomyopathy.

RECENT FINDINGS

Although there is currently a lack of data on this condition, arrhythmogenic left ventricular dysplasia can be considered a specific disease of the left ventricle (LV). We have collected the latest evidence about the management and the risks associated with this cardiomyopathy.

SUMMARY

Left ventricular arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy is still poorly characterized. ALVC is characterized by fibrofatty replacement in the left ventricular myocardium, with variable phenotypic expression. Diagnosis is based on a multiparametric approach, including cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) and genetic testing, and is important for sudden cardiac death (SCD) risk stratification and management. Recent guidelines have improved the management of left ventricular arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy. Further studies are necessary to improve knowledge of this cardiomyopathy.

Assessing Knowledge, Competence, and Performance Following Web-Based Education on Early Breast Cancer Management: Health Care Professional Questionnaire Study and Anonymized Patient Records Analysis

BACKGROUND

Web-based learning activities are key components of continuing medical education (CME) for health care professionals (HCPs). However, the published outcomes of web-based educational interventions for early breast cancer (EBC) are limited.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to objectively assess knowledge, competence, and performance among HCPs following participation in 2 EBC-focused CME activities and to identify the remaining educational gaps.

METHODS

We developed 2 CME-accredited web-based educational activities addressing high-risk EBC, including integration of shared decision-making to optimize patient care (touchMDT) and stratification for early identification of high-risk patients and novel treatment strategies (touchPANEL DISCUSSION). Knowledge, competence, and performance were assessed before and after the activities against an expanded outcomes framework (levels 1-5) using self-reported questionnaires and an analysis of anonymized data extracted from patient records.

RESULTS

Six months after the launch of the activity, 7047 and 8989 HCP participants engaged with touchMDT and touchPANEL DISCUSSION, respectively. The overall satisfaction was 82% (a total score of 20.6 out of 25) for the touchMDT and 88% (a total score of 21.9 out of 25) for the touchPANEL DISCUSSION. For the evaluation of knowledge and competence (50 respondents before the activity and 50 learners after the activity), there was a significant increase in the mean number of correctly answered questions from pre- to postactivity (touchMDT: median 4.0, IQR 3.0-5.0 to median 5.5, IQR 4.0-7.0; mean 4.00, SD 1.39 to mean 5.30, SD 1.56 and touchPANEL DISCUSSION: median 4.0, IQR 4.0-5.0 to median 6.0, IQR 5.0-7.0; mean 4.32, SD 1.30 to mean 5.88, SD 1.49; both P<.001). A significant improvement in self-reported performance (50 respondents before the activity and 50 learners after the activity) was observed in a combined analysis of both activities (median 3.0, IQR 2.0-3.0 to median 4.0, IQR 3.0-5.0; mean 2.82, SD 1.08 to mean 4.16, SD 1.45; P<.001). Patient record analysis (50 respondents before the activity and 50 learners after the activity) showed that the HCPs used a range of measures to determine EBC recurrence risk and revealed no significant differences in adjuvant therapies used before and after the activity (P=.97 and P>.99 for Ki-67 <20% and Ki-67 ≥20% tumors, respectively). The remaining educational gaps included strategies for implementing shared decision-making in clinical practice and the use of genetic and biomarker testing to guide treatment selection.

CONCLUSIONS

Brief, web-based CME activities on EBC were associated with an improvement in HCP knowledge, competence, and self-reported performance and can help identify unmet needs to inform the design of future CME activities.

Relationship of Mild to Moderate Impairment of Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction With Fatal Ventricular Arrhythmic Events in Cardiac Sarcoidosis

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines recommend placing an implantable cardiac defibrillator for patients with cardiac sarcoidosis and a severely impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) of ≤35%. In this study, we determined the association between mild or moderate LVEF impairment and fatal ventricular arrhythmic event (FVAE).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We retrospectively analyzed 401 patients with cardiac sarcoidosis without sustained ventricular arrhythmia at diagnosis. The primary end point was an FVAE, defined as the combined endpoint of documented ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation and sudden cardiac death. Two cutoff points for LVEF were used: a sex-specific lower threshold of normal range of LVEF (52% for men and 54% for women) and an LVEF of 35%, which is used in the current guidelines. During a median follow-up of 3.2 years, 58 FVAEs were observed, and the 5- and 10-year estimated incidences of FVAEs were 16.8% and 23.0%, respectively. All patients were classified into 3 groups according to LVEF: impaired LVEF group, mild to moderate impairment of LVEF group, and maintained LVEF group. Multivariable competing risk analysis showed that both the impaired LVEF group (hazard ratio [HR], 3.24 [95% CI, 1.49-7.04]) and the mild to moderate impairment of LVEF group (HR, 2.16 [95% CI, 1.04-4.46]) were associated with a higher incidence of FVAEs than the maintained LVEF group after adjustment for covariates.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with cardiac sarcoidosis are at a high risk of FVAEs, regardless of documented ventricular arrhythmia at the time of diagnosis. In patients with cardiac sarcoidosis, mild to moderate impairment of LVEF is associated with FVAEs.

Novel role of cardiovascular MRI to contextualise tuberculous pericardial inflammation and oedema as predictors of constrictive pericarditis

Tuberculosis (TB) and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome have reached epidemic proportions, particularly affecting vulnerable populations in low- and middle-income countries of sub-Saharan Africa. TB pericarditis is the commonest cardiac manifestation of TB and is the leading cause of constrictive pericarditis, a reversible (by surgical pericardiectomy) cause of diastolic heart failure in endemic areas. Unpacking the complex mechanisms underpinning constrictive haemodynamics in TB pericarditis has proven challenging, leaving various basic and clinical research questions unanswered. Subsequently, risk stratification strategies for constrictive outcomes have remained unsatisfactory. Unique pericardial tissue characteristics, as identified on cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging, enable us to stage and quantify pericardial inflammation and may assist in identifying patients at higher risk of tissue remodelling and pericardial constriction, as well as predict the degree of disease reversibility, tailor medical therapy, and determine the ideal timing for surgical pericardiectomy.

Comparison of contemporary risk scores in all groups of pulmonary hypertension - a PVRI GoDeep meta-registry analysis

BACKGROUND

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is a heterogeneous disease with poor prognosis. Accurate risk stratification is essential for guiding treatment decisions in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). While various risk models were developed for PAH, their comparative prognostic potential requires further exploration. Additionally, the applicability of risk scores in PH groups beyond group 1 remains to be investigated.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Are risk scores originally developed for PAH predictive in PH group 1-4?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted a comprehensive analysis of outcomes among incident PH patients enrolled in the multicenter worldwide PVRI-GoDeep meta-registry. Analyses were performed across PH groups 1-4 and further subgroups to evaluate the predictive value of PAH-risk scores, including REVEAL Lite 2, REVEAL 2.0, ESC/ERS 2022, COMPERA 3-strata and COMPERA 4-strata.

RESULTS

8565 patients were included in the study, of whom 3537 patients were assigned to group 1 PH while 1807, 1635, and 1586 patients were diagnosed with group 2, group 3, and group 4 PH. Pulmonary hemodynamics were impaired with median mPAP of 42 [33,52]mmHg and PVR of 7 [4,11]WU. All risk scores were prognostic in the entire PH population and in each of the PH groups 1-4. The REVEAL scores, when used as continuous prediction models, possessed the highest statistical prognostic power and granularity; the COMPERA 4-strata risk score provided sub-differentiation of the intermediate-risk group. Similar results were obtained when separately analyzing various subgroups (PH subgroups 1.1, 1.4.1, 1.4.4; 3.1, 3.2; group 2 with isolated post-capillary-PH versus combined pre-/post-capillary-PH; patients of all groups with concomitant cardiac comorbidities; severe [> 5 WU] versus non-severe PH).

INTERPRETATION

This comprehensive study with real-world data from 15 PH-centers showed that PAH-designed risk scores possess predictive power in a large PH cohort, whether considered as common group or calculated separately for each PH group (1-4) and various subgroups.

Cumulative cancer locations on prostate biopsy and active surveillance outcomes in the MRI era

BACKGROUND

To validate the use of a cumulative cancer locations (CCLO) score, a measurement of tumor volume on biopsy, and to develop a novel magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-informed CCLO (mCCLO) score to predict clinical outcomes on active surveillance (AS).

METHODS

The CCLO score is a sum of uniquely involved sextants with prostate cancer on diagnostic + confirmatory biopsy. The mCCLO score incorporates MRI findings into the CCLO score. Participants included 1284 individuals enrolled on AS between 1994 and 2022, 343 of whom underwent prostate MRI. The primary outcome was grade reclassification (GR) to grade group ≥2 disease; the secondary outcome was receipt of definitive treatment.

RESULTS

Increasing CCLO and mCCLO risk groups were associated with higher risk of GR and undergoing definitive treatment (both p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, increasing mCCLO score was associated with higher risk of GR and receipt of definitive treatment (hazard ratios [HRs] per 1-unit increase: 1.26 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12-1.41] and 1.21 [95% CI: 1.07-1.36], respectively). The model using mCCLO score to predict GR (c-index: 0.671; 95% CI: 0.621-0.721) performed at least as well as models using the number of cores positive for cancer (0.664 [0.613-0.715]; p = 0.7) and the maximum percentage of cancer in a core (0.641 [0.585-0.696]; p = 0.14).

CONCLUSIONS

The CCLO score is a valid, objective metric to predict GR and receipt of treatment in a large AS cohort. The ability of the MRI-informed mCCLO to predict GR is on par with traditional metrics of tumor volume but is more descriptive and may benefit from greater reproducibility. The mCCLO score can be implemented as a shorthand, informative tool for counseling patients about whether to remain on AS.

Prioritizing patients for hip fracture surgery: the role of frailty and cardiac risk

Introduction

The number of patients with hip fractures continues to rise as the average age of the population increases. Optimizing outcomes in this cohort is predicated on timely operative repair. The aim of this study was to determine if patients with hip fractures who are frail or have a higher cardiac risk suffer from an increased risk of in-hospital mortality when surgery is postponed >24 h.

Methods

All patients registered in the 2013-2021 TQIP dataset who were ≥65 years old and underwent surgical fixation of an isolated hip fracture caused by a ground-level fall were included. Adjustment for confounding was performed using inverse probability weighting (IPW) while stratifying for frailty with the Orthopedic Frailty Score (OFS) and cardiac risk using the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI). The outcome was presented as the absolute risk difference in in-hospital mortality.

Results

A total of 254,400 patients were included. After IPW, all confounders were balanced. A delay in surgery was associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality across all strata, and, as the degree of frailty and cardiac risk increased, so too did the risk of mortality. In patients with OFS ≥4, delaying surgery >24 h was associated with a 2.33 percentage point increase in the absolute mortality rate (95% CI: 0.57-4.09, p = 0.010), resulting in a number needed to harm (NNH) of 43. Furthermore, the absolute risk of mortality increased by 4.65 percentage points in patients with RCRI ≥4 who had their surgery delayed >24 h (95% CI: 0.90-8.40, p = 0.015), resulting in a NNH of 22. For patients with OFS 0 and RCRI 0, the corresponding NNHs when delaying surgery >24 h were 345 and 333, respectively.

Conclusion

Delaying surgery beyond 24 h from admission increases the risk of mortality for all geriatric hip fracture patients. The magnitude of the negative impact increases with the patient's level of cardiac risk and frailty. Operative intervention should not be delayed based on frailty or cardiac risk.

Predicting posthospitalization falls in Brazilian older adults: External validation of the Carpenter instrument

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to explore and externally validate the Carpenter instrument's efficacy in predicting postdischarge fall risk among older adults admitted to the emergency department (ED) for reasons other than falls or related injuries.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study was conducted on 779 patients aged ≥ 65 years from a tertiary hospital in São Paulo, Brazil, who were monitored for up to 6 months post-ED hospitalization. The Carpenter instrument, which evaluates the four risk factors nonhealing foot sores, self-reported depression, inability to self-clip toenails, and prior falls, was utilized to assess fall risk. Follow-up by telephone occurred at 30, 90, and 180 days to identify falls and mortality. Fine-Gray models estimated the predictive power of Carpenter instrument for future falls, considering death as a competing event and sociodemographic factors, frail status, and clinical measures as confounders.

RESULTS

Among 779 patients, 68 (9%) experienced a fall within 180 days post-ED admission, and 88 (11%) died. The majority were male (54%), with a mean age of 79 years. Upon utilizing the Carpenter score, those with a higher fall risk (≥2 points) displayed more comorbidities, greater frailty, and increased clinical severity at baseline. Regression analyses showed that every additional point on the Carpenter score increased the hazard of falls by 73%. Two primary contributors to its predictive potential were identified: a history of falls in the preceding year and an inability to self-clip toenails. However, the instrument's discriminative accuracy was suboptimal, with an area under the curve of 0.62.

CONCLUSIONS

While the Carpenter instrument associated with a higher 6-month postadmission fall risk among older adults post-ED visit, its accuracy for individual patient decision making was limited. Given the significant impact of falls on health outcomes and health care costs, refining risk assessment tools remains essential. Future research should focus on enhancing these assessments and devising targeted proactive strategies.

Comparison Between REVEAL Lite 2 and COMPERA 2.0 for Risk Stratification in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification is the cornerstone of the management of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Current European Society of Cardiology/European Respiratory Society guidelines recommend using the Comparative, Prospective Registry of Newly Initiated Therapies for Pulmonary Hypertension (COMPERA) three-strata risk model at baseline and the COMPERA 2.0 four-strata model at follow-up. However, the guidelines did not take into consideration other available risk scores such as the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management (REVEAL) Lite 2.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Is REVEAL Lite 2 better at discriminating risk than the COMPERA risk assessment models at baseline or follow-up evaluations?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

This study analyzed data from patients with PAH consecutively enrolled between June 2011 and February 2022 in the PAH registry at our expert Pulmonary Hypertension Center. Patients were stratified according to REVEAL Lite 2 and COMPERA three- and four-strata risk scores at baseline and follow-up to predict the composite outcome for lung transplantation or death. Receiver-operating characteristic curves in predicting the binary outcome at 3, 5, and 7 years were plotted. Areas under the curve of the scores were compared by using the χ2 test. The performance of the scores was determined according to Harrel's C statistic.

RESULTS

A total of 296 patients were included for baseline and 196 for follow-up evaluation. The overall transplant-free survival in the patient population at 1, 3, 5, and 7 years was 93.6%, 81.3%, 75.1%, and 68.8%, respectively. At baseline, the C statistic of REVEAL Lite 2 was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69-0.80), compared with 0.68 (95% CI, 0.63-0.74) for the COMPERA four-strata model and 0.63 (95% CI, 0.58-0.69) for the COMPERA three-strata model. All C statistic differences between REVEAL Lite 2 and the other models were statistically significant at baseline.

INTERPRETATION

Our analysis showed that REVEAL Lite 2 was better at baseline at discriminating risk in this patient population. Future guidelines should consider including REVEAL Lite 2 in the management algorithm to help clinicians make informed decisions. Further analysis in larger cohorts could help validate these findings.

Construction and validation of machine learning models for predicting distant metastases in newly diagnosed colorectal cancer patients: A large-scale and real-world cohort study

BACKGROUND

More accurate prediction of distant metastases (DM) in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) would optimize individualized treatment and follow-up strategies. Multiple prediction models based on machine learning have been developed to assess the likelihood of developing DM.

METHODS

Clinicopathological features of patients with CRC were obtained from the National Cancer Center (NCC, China) and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The algorithms used to create the prediction models included random forest (RF), logistic regression, extreme gradient boosting, deep neural networks, and the K-Nearest Neighbor machine. The prediction models' performances were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

In total, 200,958 patients, 3241 from NCC and 197,717 CRC from SEER were identified, of whom 21,736 (10.8%) developed DM. The machine-learning-based prediction models for DM were constructed with 12 features remaining after iterative filtering. The RF model performed the best, with areas under the ROC curve of 0.843, 0.793, and 0.806, respectively, on the training, test, and external validation sets. For the risk stratification analysis, the patients were separated into high-, middle-, and low-risk groups according to their risk scores. Patients in the high-risk group had the highest incidence of DM and the worst prognosis. Surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy could significantly improve the prognosis of the high-risk and middle-risk groups, whereas the low-risk group only benefited from surgery and chemotherapy.

CONCLUSION

The RF-based model accurately predicted the likelihood of DM and identified patients with CRC in the high-risk group, providing guidance for personalized clinical decision-making.

Partnering With Technology: Advancing Laparoscopy With Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have emerged as transformative technologies in optimizing laparoscopic surgery, offering innovative solutions to enhance surgical precision, efficiency, and safety. This editorial explores the potential role of AI/ML across the surgical continuum, including preoperative optimization, intraoperative assistance, and postoperative care. It outlines the benefits of laparoscopic surgery compared to traditional open procedures and identifies current challenges such as technical difficulty and human error. The editorial discusses how AI and ML technologies can address these challenges, including patient selection and risk stratification, surgical planning and simulation, and personalized medicine approaches. Moreover, it examines the role of AI/ML in intraoperative assistance, such as instrument tracking and guidance, real-time tissue analysis, and the detection of potential complications. Postoperative care and follow-up are also explored, highlighting the potential of AI/ML in monitoring patient recovery, predicting and preventing complications, and tailoring rehabilitation plans. Ethical concerns surrounding data privacy and security, the lack of transparency in decision-making, potential job displacement, and regulatory frameworks are discussed as challenges to the widespread adoption of AI/ML in laparoscopic surgery. Finally, potential areas for further research and exploration are outlined, emphasizing interdisciplinary collaboration and the need for transparent and accountable AI systems. Overall, this editorial provides insights into the challenges and opportunities in harnessing AI/ML technologies to optimize laparoscopic surgery and improve patient outcomes.

A component-based analysis of metabolic syndrome's impact on 30-day outcomes after hip fracture: reduced mortality in obese patients

Introduction

Hip fractures are a common injury associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In the United States, there has been a rapid increase in the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS), a condition comprised several common comorbidities, including obesity, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension, that may worsen perioperative outcomes. This article assesses the impact of MetS and its components on outcomes after hip fracture surgery.

Methods

Patients who underwent nonelective operative treatment for traumatic hip fractures were identified in the 2015-2020 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database. Baseline characteristics between groups were compared, and significant differences were included as covariates. Multivariate regression was performed to assess the impact of characteristics of interest on postoperative outcomes. Patients with MetS, or a single one of its constitutive components-hypertension, diabetes, and obesity-were compared with metabolically healthy cohorts.

Results

In total 95,338 patients were included. Patients with MetS had increased complications (OR 1.509; P < 0.001), but reduced mortality (OR 0.71; P < 0.001). Obesity alone was also associated with increased complications (OR 1.14; P < 0.001) and reduced mortality (OR 0.736; P < 0.001). Both hypertension and diabetes alone increased complications (P < 0.001) but had no impact on mortality. Patients with MetS did, however, have greater odds of adverse discharge (OR 1.516; P < 0.001), extended hospital stays (OR 1.18; P < 0.001), and reoperation (OR 1.297; P = 0.003), but no significant difference in readmission rate.

Conclusion

Patients with MetS had increased complications but decreased mortality. Our component-based analysis showed had obesity had a similar effect: increased complications but lower mortality. These results may help surgeons preoperatively counsel patients with hip fracture about their postoperative risks.

Whole-tumor apparent diffusion coefficient histogram analysis for preoperative risk stratification in endometrial endometrioid adenocarcinoma

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the application of whole-tumor apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) histogram metrics for preoperative risk stratification in endometrial endometrioid adenocarcinoma (EEA).

METHODS

Preoperative MRI of 502 EEA patients were retrospectively analyzed. Whole tumor ADC histogram analysis was performed with regions of interest drawn on all tumor slices of diffusion-weighted imaging scans. Risk stratification was based on ESMO-ESTRO-ESP guidelines: low-, intermediate-, high-intermediate-, and high-risk. Univariable analysis was used to compare ADC histogram metrics (tumor volume, minADC, maxADC, and meanADC; 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of ADC [recorded as P10, P25, P50, P75, and P90 ADC, respectively]; skewness; and kurtosis) between different risk EEAs, and multivariable logistic regression analysis to determine the optimal metric or combined model for risk stratifications. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis with the area under the curve (AUC) was used for diagnostic performance evaluation.

RESULTS

A decreasing tendency in multiple ADC values was observed from the low- to high-intermediate-risk EEAs. The (low + intermediate)-risk EEAs and low-risk EEAs had significantly smaller tumor volumes and higher minADCs, meanADCs, P10, P25, P50, P75, and P90 ADCs than the (high-intermediate + high)-risk EEAs and non-low-risk EEAs (all P < 0.05), respectively. The combined models of the (meanADC + volume) and the (P75 ADC + volume) yielded the largest AUCs of 0.775 and 0.780 in identifying the (low + intermediate)- and the low-risk EEAs from the other EEAs, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Whole-tumor ADC histogram metrics might be helpful for preoperatively identifying low- and (low + intermediate)-risk EEAs, facilitating personalized therapeutic planning.

Evaluating Suicide Risk Stratification in Outpatient Settings: A Vignette-Based Approach

Suicide risk assessment and stratification are a key suicide prevention strategy in mental health care systems that treat military service members and veterans. The aim of the current mixed-method project was to address a gap in our knowledge as to how therapists make these important clinical decisions. This manuscript reports the results of a project during which six vignettes were developed reflecting varying levels of risk according to the Rocky Mountain MIRECC Risk Stratification Table. Mental health therapists were asked to evaluate the risk level of each vignette, determine a treatment disposition, and provide justification for their ratings. The results of the study indicate that therapists can reliably evaluate risk, but that treatment planning tended to be based more on vignette-specific factors than essential features of the risk model. The qualitative findings revealed variations in the definition and perception of foundational concepts, suggesting a need for further research and training in these domains. Overall, the results support the use of vignettes as a method to assess clinical decision-making and provide several areas for further training and research.

Distal Pancreatectomy: Extent of Resection Determines Surgical Risk Categories

BACKGROUND

Recently, subclassification of pancreatoduodenectomy in 4 differing types has been reported, because additional major vascular and multivisceral resections have been shown to be associated with an increased risk of postoperative morbidity and mortality.

OBJECTIVE

To classify distal pancreatectomy (DP) based on the extent of resection and technical difficulty and to evaluate postoperative outcomes with regards to this classification system.

METHODS

All consecutive patients who had undergone DP between 2001 and 2020 in a high-volume pancreatic surgery center were included in this study. DPs were subclassified into 4 distinct categories reflecting the extent of resection and technical difficulty, including standard DP (type 1), DP with venous (type 2), multivisceral (type 3), or arterial resection (type 4). Patient characteristics, perioperative data, and postoperative outcomes were analyzed and compared among the 4 groups.

RESULTS

A total of 2135 patients underwent DP. Standard DP was the most frequently performed procedure (64.8%). The overall 90-day mortality rate was 1.6%. Morbidity rates were higher in patients with additional vascular or multivisceral resections, and 90-day mortality gradually increased with the extent of resection from standard DP to DP with arterial resection (type 1: 0.7%; type 2: 1.3%; type 3: 3%; type 4: 8.7%; P <0.0001). Multivariable analysis confirmed the type of DP as an independent risk factor for 90-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Postoperative outcomes after DP depend on the extent of resection and correlate with the type of DP. The implementation of the 4-type classification system allows standardized reporting of surgical outcomes after DP improving comparability of future studies.

Prognostic impact of lymph node involvement and loss of heterozygosity of 1p or 16q in stage III favorable histology Wilms tumor: A report from Children's Oncology Group Studies AREN03B2 and AREN0532

INTRODUCTION

The prognostic impact of positive lymph nodes (LN+) and/or singular loss of heterozygosity (LOH) of 1p or 16q were assessed in children with stage III favorable histology Wilms tumor (FHWT) enrolled on AREN0532 or AREN03B2 alone.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 635 stage III FHWT vincristine/dactinomycin/doxorubicin (DD4A)-treated patients met inclusion criteria. Event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival are reported overall and by LN sampling, LN status, LOH 1p, LOH 16q, and a combination of LN status and singular LOH. Patients with unknown or positive combined LOH of 1p and 16q status and AREN03B2-only patients with unknown outcomes or treatment other than DD4A were excluded.

RESULTS

EFS did not differ by study, supporting pooling. Lack of LN sampling (hazard ratio [HR], 2.12; p = .0037), LN positivity (HR, 2.78; p = .0002), LOH 1p (HR, 2.18; p = .0067), and LOH 16q (HR, 1.72; p = .042) were associated with worse EFS. Compared with patients with both LN- and LOH-, those with negative nodes but positive LOH 1p or 16q and those with LN+ but LOH- for 1p or 16q had significantly worse EFS (HR, 3.05 and 3.57, respectively). Patients positive for both LN and LOH had the worst EFS (HR, 6.33; overall group factor, p < .0001).

CONCLUSION

Findings confirm LN+ status as an adverse prognostic factor amplified by presence of singular LOH 1p or 16q, supporting study of intensified therapy for patients with LN+ in combination with singular LOH in a prospective clinical trial.

Performance of magnetic resonance imaging-based prostate cancer risk calculators and decision strategies in two large European medical centres

OBJECTIVES

To compare the performance of currently available biopsy decision support tools incorporating magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings in predicting clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively included men who underwent prostate MRI and subsequent targeted and/or systematic prostate biopsies in two large European centres. Available decision support tools were identified by a PubMed search. Performance was assessed by calibration, discrimination, decision curve analysis (DCA) and numbers of biopsies avoided vs csPCa cases missed, before and after recalibration, at risk thresholds of 5%-20%.

RESULTS

A total of 940 men were included, 507 (54%) had csPCa. The median (interquartile range) age, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, and PSA density (PSAD) were 68 (63-72) years, 9 (7-15) ng/mL, and 0.20 (0.13-0.32) ng/mL2 , respectively. In all, 18 multivariable risk calculators (MRI-RCs) and dichotomous biopsy decision strategies based on MRI findings and PSAD thresholds were assessed. The Van Leeuwen model and the Rotterdam Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator (RPCRC) had the best discriminative ability (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.86) of the MRI-RCs that could be assessed in the whole cohort. DCA showed the highest clinical utility for the Van Leeuwen model, followed by the RPCRC. At the 10% threshold the Van Leeuwen model would avoid 22% of biopsies, missing 1.8% of csPCa, whilst the RPCRC would avoid 20% of biopsies, missing 2.6% of csPCas. These multivariable models outperformed all dichotomous decision strategies based only on MRI-findings and PSAD.

CONCLUSIONS

Even in this high-risk cohort, biopsy decision support tools would avoid many prostate biopsies, whilst missing very few csPCa cases. The Van Leeuwen model had the highest clinical utility, followed by the RPCRC. These multivariable MRI-RCs outperformed and should be favoured over decision strategies based only on MRI and PSAD.

Integrating 40-GEP Testing to Improve Clinical Recommendations for Adjuvant Radiation for Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Multidisciplinary Consensus Guidelines

Early identification and intervention in patients with cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) who are at high risk for metastasis is important for optimal outcomes. Prognostic tools (e.g., American Joint Committee on Cancer, 8th edition [AJCC-8]) and management guidelines (National Comprehensive Cancer Network® [NCCN]) are useful in helping to identify high-risk patients with cSCC who might benefit from adjuvant therapies, such as radiation and/or immunotherapies; however, traditional staging and management guidelines rely on clinicopathologic risk factors to predict risk, which limits their prognostic accuracy. Gene expression profiling (GEP) is a clinically available, objective metric that can be used in conjunction with traditional clinicopathological staging to help clinicians stratify risk in patients with cSCC. The validated 40-GEP test can accurately classify patients with at least one high-risk feature as being at low (Class 1), higher (Class 2A), or highest (Class 2B) biological risk of nodal or distant metastasis within three years of diagnosis. A multidisciplinary panel comprising radiation oncologists and dermatologists/Mohs micrographic surgeons with expertise in cSCC management convened in June 2023 to discuss the utility of 40-GEP testing in cSCC clinical decision-making in regard to adjuvant radiation therapy (ART). The panel identified gaps in clinical practice in which 40-GEP testing has particular utility: in escalation of care for lower-stage patients with high-risk tumors; in de-escalation of care for patients for whom the risks of ART may outweigh the benefits; and in decision-making regarding elective radiation to the nodal basin. The expert panel developed a risk-based clinical workflow for ART in patients with cSCC, utilizing 40-GEP testing within NCCN management guidelines and AJCC-8 staging.