Registration, incidence patterns, and survival trends of central nervous system tumors among children in Germany 1980-2019: An analysis of 40 years based on data from the German Childhood Cancer Registry

BACKGROUND

Tumors of the central nervous system (CNS) are the second most common type of pediatric cancer in Germany. We aimed to describe registration practice, incidence, and survival patterns for childhood CNS tumors in Germany for the past 40 years.

PROCEDURE

Including all CNS tumor cases in children diagnosed at ages 0-14 years registered at the German Childhood Cancer Registry (GCCR) in 1980-2019 (for survival analysis 1980-2016), we calculated age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) over time, average annual percentage changes (AAPC), and 1- and 5-year overall survival.

RESULTS

While we observed a pronounced increase in ASIR after the establishment of the GCCR during the 1980s, ASIR for all pediatric CNS tumors combined continued to increase markedly from 28.6 per million in 1990-1999 to 43.3 in 2010-2019 (AAPC = 2.7% in 1991-2010, AAPC = 0.3% in 2010-2019). The 5-year overall survival from CNS tumors improved from 63% in the 1980s, 70% in the 1990s to 79% in 2010-2016. These improvements have occurred across all age groups. Children diagnosed with ependymomas and choroid plexus tumors experienced the strongest increase (from 54% to 81%).

CONCLUSIONS

Observed increases in incidence rates for pediatric CNS tumors are likely only partially caused by actual increasing case numbers. The majority is a function of improved registration and, to a minor extent, improvements in diagnostics. Survival from pediatric CNS tumors has, by and large, improved consistently, leading to a growing population of childhood cancer survivors with diverse health biographies and risk of lifelong adverse impact on health and wellbeing.

Optimal allocation strategies in platform trials with continuous endpoints

Platform trials are randomized clinical trials that allow simultaneous comparison of multiple interventions, usually against a common control. Arms to test experimental interventions may enter and leave the platform over time. This implies that the number of experimental intervention arms in the trial may change as the trial progresses. Determining optimal allocation rates to allocate patients to the treatment and control arms in platform trials is challenging because the optimal allocation depends on the number of arms in the platform and the latter typically varies over time. In addition, the optimal allocation depends on the analysis strategy used and the optimality criteria considered. In this article, we derive optimal treatment allocation rates for platform trials with shared controls, assuming that a stratified estimation and a testing procedure based on a regression model are used to adjust for time trends. We consider both, analysis using concurrent controls only as well as analysis methods using concurrent and non-concurrent controls and assume that the total sample size is fixed. The objective function to be minimized is the maximum of the variances of the effect estimators. We show that the optimal solution depends on the entry time of the arms in the trial and, in general, does not correspond to the square root of k allocation rule used in classical multi-arm trials. We illustrate the optimal allocation and evaluate the power and type 1 error rate compared to trials using one-to-one and square root of k allocations by means of a case study.

Population Trends of New Prescriptions for Antihyperglycemics and Antihypertensives Between 2014 and 2022

BACKGROUND

In the wake of pandemic-related health decline and health care disruptions, there are concerns that previous gains for cardiovascular risk factors may have stalled or reversed. Population-level excess burden of drug-treated diabetes and hypertension during the pandemic compared with baseline is not well characterized. We evaluated the change in incident prescription claims for antihyperglycemics and antihypertensives before versus during the pandemic.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In this retrospective, serial, cross-sectional, population-based study, we used interrupted time series analyses to examine changes in the age- and sex-standardized monthly rate of incident prescriptions for antihyperglycemics and antihypertensives in patients aged ≥66 years in Ontario, Canada, before the pandemic (April 2014 to March 2020) compared with during the pandemic (July 2020 to November 2022). Incident claim was defined as the first prescription filled for any medication in these classes. The characteristics of patients with incident prescriptions of antihyperglycemics (n=151 888) or antihypertensives (n=368 123) before the pandemic were comparable with their pandemic counterparts (antihyperglycemics, n=97 015; antihypertensives, n=146 524). Before the pandemic, monthly rates of incident prescriptions were decreasing (-0.03 per 10 000 individuals [95% CI, -0.04 to -0.01] for antihyperglycemics; -0.14 [95% CI, -0.18 to -0.10] for antihypertensives). After July 2020, monthly rates increased (postinterruption trend 0.31 per 10 000 individuals [95% CI, 0.28-0.34] for antihyperglycemics; 0.19 [95% CI, 0.14-0.23] for antihypertensives).

CONCLUSIONS

Population-level increases in new antihyperglycemic and antihypertensive prescriptions during the pandemic reversed prepandemic declines and were sustained for >2 years. Our findings are concerning for current and future cardiovascular health.

Time trends and regional variation in utilization of antidiabetic medicines in China, 2015-2022

AIM

To assess the use of non-insulin antidiabetic medicines in China.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We analysed the national procurement data for 29 non-insulin antidiabetic medicines from nine subgroups in China from 2015 to 2022. We estimated the number of defined daily doses (DDDs) procured per year in seven regions of China for nine subgroups and adjusted the data by the number of patients with diabetes. For each subgroup, the regional ratio was calculated by comparing the procurement per patient in each region with the procurement nationwide. The regional disparity was the difference between the highest and lowest regional ratios. We compared the medication patterns across regions.

RESULTS

Nationally, between 2015 and 2022, the number of DDDs per patient increased from 14.45 to 47.37. The two most commonly used categories were sulphonylurea and biguanides, which increased from 7.04 to 15.39 (119%) and 3.28 to 11.11 (239%) DDDs per patient, respectively. The procurement of new drugs (dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, sodium-glucose cotransporter type 2 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists) increased quickly and had >5000% relative changes. Particularly for sodium-glucose cotransporter type 2 inhibitors, it increased from 0.08 to 5.03 DDDs (6662%). The southwest region had the highest relative change (319%), while the southern region had the lowest (118%). Biguanide and thiazolidinediones had the lowest (1.19) and highest level (2.21) of regional disparity in 2022, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The procurement of non-insulin antidiabetic medicines in China has increased a lot from 2015 to 2022. In terms of DDDs per patient, sulphonylurea ranked first, followed by metformin. The procurement of new drugs increased greatly. A large regional disparity existed in medicine usage and patterns.

Time trends of 16 modifiable risk factors on the burden of major cancers among the Chinese population

The cancer burden in China is increasing. We aimed to assess the time trends in the prevalence of 16 modifiable risk factors involved in lifestyle, diet, infection, and air pollution between 1997 and 2025 based on the China Health and Nutrition Survey, the Global Burden of Disease website, and publically available studies. The population attributable fraction (PAF) and its 95% uncertainty interval (UI) from 2007 to 2035 were calculated to quantify the attributable cancer burden in major 12 anatomic sites using the comparative risk assessment method, considering a 10-year lag effect. As a result, 1,559,476 cancer cases (PAF = 54.1%, 95% UI: 36.8%-65.8%) from the 12 anatomic sites were attributable to these modifiable risk factors in 2007, with lung, liver, and gastric cancer raging the top three. It was predicted that by 2035, the attributable cancer cases would reach 1,680,098 (PAF = 44.2%, 95% UI: 29.1%-55.5%), with the top three of lung, liver, and colorectal cancer. Smoking, physical inactivity, insufficient fruit consumption, HBV infection, and Helicobacter pylori infection were the most attributable risk factors in 2007, contributing to 480,352, 233,684, 215,009, 214,455, and 187,305 associated cancer cases, respectively. In 2035, the leading factors for cancer would be smoking, physical inactivity, insufficient fruit intake, HPV infection, and HBV infection, resulting in 427,445, 424,327, 185,144, 156,535, and 154,368 cancer cases, respectively. Intervention strategies should be swiftly established and dynamically altered in response to risk factors like smoking, physical inactivity, poor fruit intake, and infectious factors that may cause a high cancer burden in the Chinese population.

Trends in the Notification Rates and Treatment Outcome of Tuberculosis in Shandong Province, China, 2005-2021

Purpose

To analyze the time trends in the notification rates of registered tuberculosis (TB) and bacteriologically confirmed TB in Shandong Province. And analyze the changes in TB treatment outcomes during 2005-2021.

Patients and Methods

The information of TB patients registered in the Shandong Information Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was collected during 2005-2021. We calculated the notification rates of registered TB and bacteriologically confirmed TB. Moreover, we calculated the year-to-year change rate of TB in treatment outcomes before and after COVID-19. The time trends were analyzed using the joinpoint regression method and illustrated as the annual percentage change (APC) of notification rates.

Results

A total of 236,898 cases of TB were diagnosed during 2005-2021, of which 51.11% were bacteriologically confirmed cases. Since 2008, the notification rates of registered TB have declined. The notification rates of bacteriologically confirmed TB had been declining during 2005-2016, then remained stable after 2016. In subgroup, the notification rates of both registered TB and bacteriologically confirmed TB were higher among men, rural residents, and people aged ≥ 60 years. Compared with clinically confirmed TB, bacteriologically confirmed TB has shown higher rates of poor outcomes since 2008 and higher case fatality rate since 2005. The rate of poor outcomes remained stable during 2008-2019. However, after the COVID-19 outbreak, the rate of poor outcomes and case fatality rate of TB has risen significantly.

Conclusion

After unremitting efforts to fight against TB, the notification rates of registered TB and bacteriologically confirmed TB declined in Shandong Province. The rate of poor outcomes remained stable during 2008-2019, then rise significantly after the COVID-19 outbreak. In the context of the long-term existence of COVID-19, further efforts should be made in TB diagnosis and treatment among high-risk population, especially with regard to males, rural residents and older adults.

Is asthma in children still increasing? 20-year prevalence trends in northern Sweden

BACKGROUND

In the present study, we describe prevalence trends of asthma and investigate the association with asthma symptoms, use of asthma medication, and asthma severity among 8-year-old children in Norrbotten, Sweden in 1996, 2006, and 2017.

METHODS

Within the Obstructive Lung Disease in Northern Sweden (OLIN) studies, three pediatric cohorts were recruited in 1996, 2006, and 2017 respectively. Identical methods were used; all children in first and second grade (median age 8 years) in three municipalities were invited to a parental questionnaire survey, completed by n = 3430 in 1996 (97% participation), n = 2585 in 2006 (96%), and n = 2785 in 2017 (91%). The questionnaire included questions about respiratory symptoms and diagnosis, treatment, and severity of asthma.

RESULTS

The prevalence of wheezing was stable during the study, 10.1% in 1996; 10.8% in 2006; and 10.3% in 2017, p = .621, while physician-diagnosed asthma increased: 5.7%, 7.4%, and 12.2%, p < .001. The use of asthma medication in the last 12 months increased: 7.1%, 8.7%, and 11.5%, p < .001. Among children diagnosed with asthma, the prevalence of asthma symptoms, the impact on daily life, and severe asthma decreased, while the use of inhaled corticosteroids increased from 1996 until 2017.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of wheezing was stable among 8-year-old in this area from 1996 to 2017, while the prevalence of physician-diagnosed asthma doubled but without an increase in asthma morbidity. The increase of physician-diagnosed asthma without a coincident increase in asthma morbidity can partly be explained by more and earlier diagnosis among those with mild asthma.

Changes in co-use of alcohol and cannabis among Nordic adolescents in the 21st century: Results from the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs study

INTRODUCTION

In the 21st century, there has been a decline in alcohol use among adolescents in most Nordic countries, while trends of cannabis use have diverged. We explore how alcohol and cannabis use, respectively, and co-use of the two substances, have changed among Nordic adolescents. Three hypotheses are used to frame the study: (i) cannabis use has substituted alcohol use; (ii) there has been a parallel decline in both substances; and/or (iii) there has been a 'hardening' of users, implying that alcohol users increasingly use cannabis.

METHODS

Data from the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs, conducted among 15- to 16-year-olds in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden (N = 74,700, 49% boys), were used to explore trends of past-year alcohol and cannabis use in the period 2003-2019.

RESULTS

The proportion of adolescents reporting alcohol use decreased significantly in all Nordic countries except Denmark. The proportion of those using cannabis only was low (0.0%-0.7%) and stable in all countries. The total number of substance use occasions declined among all adolescents in all countries but Denmark. Among alcohol users, cannabis use became increasingly prevalent in all countries but Denmark.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

We found no support for the 'parallel decline hypothesis' in alcohol and cannabis use among Nordic adolescents. Partially in line with the 'substitution hypothesis', cannabis use accounted for an increasing proportion of all substance use occasions. Our results suggests that the co-use of alcohol and cannabis has become more common, thus also providing support to the 'hardening' hypothesis.

Trends in alcohol-related harm among Swedish youth: Do in-patient care registry data match drinking trends?

INTRODUCTION

Youth drinking has been declining in Sweden since the year 2000. There is a paucity of studies examining trends in alcohol-related harm during this period. The overall aim of the present study is to examine how trends in alcohol-related harm match trends in drinking among Swedish youths during 2000-2021.

METHODS

Measures of alcohol use were obtained from national school surveys. Prevalence rates of any alcohol use and heavy episodic drinking were used. Alcohol-related harm indicators were obtained from registry information from the National Board of Health and Welfare. Annual trends in harm indicators were tested with linear regression models and correlations between alcohol use and alcohol-related harm indicators were assessed using Pearson's correlation on annual data.

RESULTS

Statistically significant negative trends were observed for all alcohol-related harm indicators for the period 2000-2021. Significant correlations were found for both measures of alcohol use and all alcohol-related harm indicators.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

The levels of alcohol-related harm have declined among youths in Sweden during the period 2000-2021. The trends in harm seem to reflect the decline in youth drinking that has occurred during the same period.

Time trends in preeclampsia and gestational diabetes in Denmark and Alberta, Canada, 2005-2018-A population-based cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Preeclampsia and gestational diabetes mellitus share risk factors such as obesity and increased maternal age, which have become more prevalent in recent decades. We examined changes in the prevalence of preeclampsia and gestational diabetes between 2005 and 2018 in Denmark and Alberta, Canada, and investigated whether the observed trends can be explained by changes in maternal age, parity, multiple pregnancy, comorbidity, and body mass index (BMI) over time.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This study was a register-based cohort study conducted using data from the Danish National Health Registers and the provincial health registers of Alberta, Canada. We included in the study cohort all pregnancies in 2005-2018 resulting in live-born infants and used binomial regression to estimate mean annual increases in the prevalence of preeclampsia and gestational diabetes in the two populations across the study period, adjusted for maternal characteristics.

RESULTS

The study cohorts included 846 127 (Denmark) and 706 728 (Alberta) pregnancies. The prevalence of preeclampsia increased over the study period in Denmark (2.5% to 2.9%) and Alberta (1.7% to 2.5%), with mean annual increases of 0.03 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.02-0.04) and 0.06 (95% CI 0.05-0.07) percentage points, respectively. The prevalence of gestational diabetes also increased in Denmark (1.9% to 4.6%) and Alberta (3.9% to 9.2%), with average annual increases of 0.20 (95% CI 0.19-0.21) and 0.44 (95% CI 0.42-0.45) percentage points. Changes in the distributions of maternal age and BMI contributed to increases in the prevalence of both conditions but could not explain them entirely.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of both preeclampsia and gestational diabetes increased significantly from 2005 to 2018, which portends future increases in chronic disease rates among affected women. Increasing demand for long-term follow up and care will amplify the existing pressure on healthcare systems.

Large increase in ASD prevalence in Israel between 2017 and 2021

Accurate estimation of annual changes in autism spectrum disorders (ASD) prevalence is critical for planning the expansion of diagnostic, education, and intervention services at an adequate rate. Previous studies from Israel have reported that ASD prevalence among 8-year-old children has increased from estimates of 0.3% in 2008 to 0.65% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2018. Here, we analyzed data acquired from the National Insurance Institute of Israeli (NII), a governmental organization that approves and monitors all ASD children who receive welfare services in Israel, and Clalit Health Services (CHS), the largest Health Maintenance Organization in Israel that provides health services to ~52% of the population. Data from both sources included annual data files from 2017 to 2021 containing the number of ASD cases per year of birth for 1-17-year-old children. This allowed us to estimate annual ASD prevalence among 3.5 million children born between 2000 and 2020 in Israel. Both data sources revealed a nearly two-fold increase in ASD prevalence among 1-17-year-old children from 2017 to 2021. Estimated prevalence rates differed across age groups with 2-3-year-old (day-care) children increasing from 0.27% to 1.19% (>4 fold change), 4-6-year-old (pre-school) children increasing from 0.8% to 1.83%, and 8-year-old children increasing from 0.82% to 1.56% in NII data. These results demonstrate that autism prevalence continues to increase in Israel with a shift towards diagnosis at earlier ages. These findings highlight the challenge facing health and education service providers in meeting the needs of a rapidly growing autism population.

Temporal trends in early-onset colorectal cancer incidence (2000-2020) by age group and five geographic regions in the state of Georgia

The increase of early-onset colorectal cancer (CRC) among younger adults is a major public health concern. However, little is known about variations in CRC incidence across different age groups within small geographic areas in Georgia. We examined temporal trends of CRC incidence in Clayton, East Central, West Central, Northeast, and Southeast regions, by age groups. Annual incidence rates for CRC in individuals aged 15+ years during 2000-2020 in the five regions of Georgia were included. Temporal trends were examined within the five regions and stratified by age group. Joinpoint regression was employed to calculate the annual percent change and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Among 20,215 CRC diagnoses, CRC incidence declined over time for East Central (-2.33%; 95% CI, -3.03, -1.64), Northeast (-1.63%; 95% CI, -2.15, -1.04), Southeast (-1.63%; 95% CI, -2.30, -0.96), and West Central (-1.53%; 95% CI, -2.04, -1.03) Georgia. In the 15-44 age group, a notable increase of CRC incidence was found in Clayton, Northeast, and Southeast regions with a range of 2.2%-3.4%. However, adults aged 60+ years experienced a significant decrease in CRC incidence for most Georgia regions (all p-value <0.05), except for the Clayton region. In conclusion, CRC incidence declined during 2000-2020 in most Georgia regions. However, early-onset CRC is a major concern in Georgia as young adults (<45 years) living in Clayton, Northeast, and Southeast Georgia experienced significant annual increases in CRC incidence. Targeted CRC screening and awareness campaigns should be prioritized for adults <45 years and in the most impacted areas in Georgia.

Childhood and Adolescent Central Nervous System Tumours in Spain: Incidence and Survival over 20 Years: A Historical Baseline for Current Assessment

BACKGROUND

Central nervous system (CNS) neoplasms are highly frequent solid tumours in children and adolescents. While some studies have shown a rise in their incidence in Europe, others have not. Survival remains limited. We addressed two questions about these tumours in Spain: (1) Is incidence increasing? and (2) Has survival improved?

METHODS

This population-based study included 1635 children and 328 adolescents from 11 population-based cancer registries with International Classification of Childhood Cancer Group III tumours, incident in 1983-2007. Age-specific and age-standardised (world population) incidence rates (ASRws) were calculated. Incidence time trends were characterised using annual percent change (APC) obtained with Joinpoint. Cases from 1991 to 2005 (1171) were included in Kaplan-Meier survival analyses, and the results were evaluated with log-rank and log-rank for trend tests. Children's survival was age-standardised using: (1) the age distribution of cases and the corresponding trends assessed with Joinpoint; and (2) European weights for comparison with Europe.

RESULTS

ASRw 1983-2007: children: 32.7 cases/106; adolescents: 23.5 cases/106. The overall incidence of all tumours increased across 1983-2007 in children and adolescents. Considering change points, the APCs were: (1) children: 1983-1993, 4.3%^ (1.1; 7.7); 1993-2007, -0.2% (-1.9; 1.6); (2) adolescents: 1983-2004: 2.9%^ (0.9; 4.9); 2004-2007: -7.7% (-40; 41.9). For malignant tumours, the trends were not significant. 5-year survival was 65% (1991-2005), with no significant trends (except for non-malignant tumours).

CONCLUSIONS

CNS tumour incidence in Spain was found to be similar to that in Europe. Rises in incidence may be mostly attributable to changes in the registration of non-malignant tumours. The overall malignant CNS tumour trend was compatible with reports for Southern Europe. Survival was lower than in Europe, without improvement over time. We provide a baseline for assessing current paediatric oncology achievements and incidence in respect of childhood and adolescent CNS tumours.

Adolescent Toothbrushing and Its Association with Sociodemographic Factors-Time Trends from 1994 to 2018 in Twenty Countries

Regular toothbrushing is the primary self-care method to prevent the most common dental diseases and is considered an important public health indicator. This retrospective observational study aimed to examine cross-national time trends in adolescent toothbrushing behaviour and its association with sociodemographic factors between 1994 and 2018. We studied data from 20 countries that conducted seven surveys of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study. Adolescents aged 11, 13 and 15 years responded to questions on their toothbrushing frequency, family affluence and structure. Altogether, reports of 691,559 students were analysed using descriptive statistics and binominal logistic regression. The findings showed an overall positive trend in the prevalence of more-than-once-a-day toothbrushing frequency during the entire study period mainly due to a noticeable increase from 1994 to 2010 (except Denmark and Sweden); this trend continued significantly thereafter in 12 of 20 countries. Across all countries, girls and adolescents from more affluent families were more likely to brush their teeth regularly. These relationships remained unchanged throughout the study period, whereas the age-related difference in toothbrushing prevalence decreased noticeably, and the negative relationship between toothbrushing and living in a non-intact family became evident. While the prevalence of regular toothbrushing among adolescents has increased in recent decades, it is still far behind the recommended level of twice-daily brushing for everyone across all countries. The promotion of toothbrushing needs to start at an early age, with a special focus on boys and adolescents from low-affluence and non-intact families.

Increase in incidence of anorexia nervosa among 10- to 14-year-old girls: A nationwide study in the Netherlands over four decades

OBJECTIVE

This primary care study examined time trends in the incidence of anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) in the Netherlands across four decades.

METHODS

A nationwide network of general practitioners, serving approximately 1% of the total Dutch population, recorded newly diagnosed patients with AN and BN in their practices from 1985 to 2019 (2,890,978 person-years). DSM-IV diagnostic criteria were consistently used and the same psychiatrist was responsible for the final diagnostic decision. Incidence rates (IRs) were calculated for: the total population (all ages), females overall, and females per 5-year age category. Time trends in IRs were analyzed using JoinPoint regression analyses.

RESULTS

In four decades, the incidence of AN among 10- to 14-year-old females increased significantly from 8.6 to 38.6 per 100,000 person-years (average period percentage change [APPC] = 56.7; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.5-130.6. The overall incidence of AN was stable, with IRs ranging from 6.0 (95% CI = 4.3-8.1) to 8.4 (95% CI = 6.4-10.8). The IR of BN decreased significantly from 8.7 (95% CI = 6.7-11.0) to 3.2 (95% CI = 2.0-4.9) in the 2000s, before leveling off in the 2010s (IR 3.2; 95% CI = 2.0-4.8).

DISCUSSION

The incidence of AN among 10- to 14-year-old girls increased significantly over four decades. Both biological and sociocultural factors, for example, early pubertal timing and the impact of social media, might explain this. In other age groups and overall, the incidence of AN remained stable. The significant decrease of the incidence of BN in the previous decades halted in the last decade.

PUBLIC SIGNIFICANCE

An important finding of the present study is that for 10- to 14-year-old girls, the risk for developing anorexia nervosa has increased significantly over 40 years. More healthcare facilities for younger people are needed, and prevention programs could include social media use. For bulimia nervosa, the general decrease in the occurrence of new cases has halted in the 2010s.

Time Trends in the Treatment and Survival of 5036 Uveal Melanoma Patients in The Netherlands over a 30-Year Period

BACKGROUND

Uveal melanoma (UM) is a rare intraocular tumor with a dismal prognosis once metastasized. This study provides a nationwide overview and time trends of patients diagnosed with primary UM in the Netherlands between 1989 and 2019.

METHODS

A retrospective population-based cohort study based on patients with primary UM from the database of the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR), linked with the national population registry Statistics Netherlands on inhabitants' cause of death. Two time periods (1989-2004, 2005-2019) were compared with descriptive statistics. Kaplan-Meier and (multivariate) Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess changes over time for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS).

RESULTS

In total, 5036 patients were analyzed with a median age of 64.0 years at the time of diagnosis. The number of patients increased over time. In the first (1989-2004) and second (2005-2019) period, 32% versus 54% of the patients received radiotherapy (p < 0.001). The median FU time was 13.4 years. The median OS of the first and second periods was 9.5 (95% CI 8.7-10.3) versus 11.3 years (95% CI 10.3-12.3; p < 0.001). The median CSS was 30.0 years (95% CI NA) in the first period and not reached in the second period (p = 0.008). In multivariate analysis (MVA), female gender (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.79-0.92, p < 0.001) and radiotherapy treatment (HR 0.73; 95% CI 0.64-0.83, p < 0.001) were associated with better OS. Radiotherapy treatment (HR 0.74; 95% CI 0.61-0.90, p = 0.002) was also associated with better CSS. The period of diagnosis was not associated with OS or CSS.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study of patients with primary UM, there was a shift to the diagnosis of smaller tumors, possibly due to stage migration. There was also an increase in eye-preserving treatments over time. OS and CSS were modestly improved in the second time period; however, the time period was not associated with OS or CSS in multivariate analyses.

Trends in the size of treated unruptured intracranial aneurysms over 35 years

OBJECTIVE

In the absence of clear guidelines and consistent natural history data, the decision to treat unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) is a matter of some controversy. Currently, decisions are often guided by a consensus of cerebrovascular specialist teams and patient preferences. It is unclear how paradigm-shifting developments in the detection and treatment of UIAs have affected the size of the UIAs that are selected for treatment. Herein, the authors aimed to study potential changes in the average size of the UIAs that were treated over time. They hypothesized that the average size of UIAs that are treated is decreasing over time.

METHODS

A systematic search of the literature was performed to identify all studies describing the size of UIAs that were treated using any modality. Scatter diagrams with trend lines were used to plot the size of the aneurysms treated over time and assess for the presence of a potentially significant trend via statistical correlation tests. Subgroup analyses based on type of treatment, country of study, and specialty of the authors were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 240 studies including 35,150 UIAs treated between 1987 and 2021 met all eligibility criteria and were entered in the analysis. The mean age of patients was 55.5 years, and 70.7% of the patients were females. There was a significant decrease in the size of treated UIAs over time (Spearman's r = -0.186, p < 0.001), with a 0.71-mm decrease in the average size of treated UIAs every 5 years since 1987 and an annual mean dropping below 7 mm in 2012. This decreasing trend was present in surgically and endovascularly treated UIAs (p < 0.001 for both), in more developed and developing countries (p < 0.001 for both), within neurosurgical and non-neurosurgical specialties (p < 0.001 for both), most prominently in the US (Spearman's r = -0.482, p < 0.001), and less prominently in Europe (Spearman's r = -0.221, p < 0.001) and was not detected in East Asia.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study indicates that based on the treated UIA size data published in the literature over the past 35 years, smaller UIAs are being treated over time. This trend is likely driven by safer treatments. However, future studies should elucidate the cost-effectiveness of treating smaller UIAs as well as the possible real-world contribution of this trend in preventing aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

Persistent High Long-term Excess Mortality After Elective AAA Repair Especially in Women: A Large Population-based Study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this time-trend analysis is to estimate long-term excess mortality and associated cardiovascular risk for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) patients after elective repair while addressing the changes in AAA management and patient selection over time.

BACKGROUND

Despite the intensification of endovascular aneurysm repair and cardiovascular risk management, Swedish population data suggest that AAA patients retain a persistently high long-term mortality after elective repair. The question is whether this reflects suboptimal treatment, a changing patient population over time, or a national phenomenon.

METHODS

Nationwide time-trend analysis including 40,730 patients (87% men) following elective AAA repair between 1995 and 2017. Three timeframes were compared, each reflecting changes in the use of endovascular aneurysm repair and intensification of cardiovascular risk management. Relative survival analyses were used to estimate disease-specific excess mortality. Competing risk of death analysis evaluated the risk of cardiovascular versus noncardiovascular death. Sensitivity analysis evaluated the impact of changes in patient selection over time.

RESULTS

Short-term excess mortality significantly improved over time. Long-term excess mortality remained high with a doubled mortality risk for women (relative excess risk=1.87, 95% CI: 1.73-2.02). Excess mortality did not differ between age categories. The risk of cardiovascular versus noncardiovascular death remained similar over time, with a higher risk of cardiovascular death for women. Changes in patient population (ie, older and more comorbid patients in the latter period) marginally impacted excess mortality (2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite changes in AAA care, patients retain a high long-term excess mortality after elective repair with a persistent high cardiovascular mortality risk. In this, a clear sex - but no age - disparity stands out.

Relapses in Illicit Drug Use Among Probationers: Results in a Risk Group of Public Health Services in Bavaria

Objective: We aimed to identify in this study time trends of relapses in the illicit consumption of narcotics in a special at-risk population of former drug users under a public health perspective. Methods: In a pooled dataset of 14 consecutive calendar years (2006-2019), the use of seven different narcotic substances was studied in 380 persons with a total of 2,928 urine samples which were analyzed using a valid marker system for narcotic residues. Results: During the entire observation period, the relapse rate for cannabinoids and opiates was the highest despite abstinence requirements. It was noticeable that the relapses across all narcotics groups occurred primarily during the first 3 years of the probation period (90%) with a decrease in illegal consumption during the following years of the observation period. Conclusion: Special attention should be paid to probationers at the beginning of the probation period to develop more effective prevention strategies for substance abstinence by all involved actors in public health services.

Epidemiology of human papillomavirus-associated anogenital cancers in Granada: a three-decade population-based study

Introduction

HPV infection is a common risk factor for all anogenital cancers. However, there are important differences in the epidemiology of anogenital cancers and these have not been compared considering diverse epidemiological indicators over a long period of time. To fill this gap, we investigated incidence, mortality, and survival trends of anogenital cancers over a period of three decades.

Methods

We conducted an observational registry-based study using data from the population-based cancer registry of Granada in southern Spain. We collected data on all incident cases of anogenital cancer (cervical, anal, penile, vulvar, and vaginal cancer) diagnosed between 1985 and 2017. We calculated crude and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates, and 1, 3, and 5-year overall and net survival. We further conducted time-trend analysis calculating annual percent changes (APC) for each cancer site.

Results

The incidence of anogenital cancers decreased slightly during the past 30 years, with the exception of vulvar cancer, where a slight increase was observed. Mortality decreased significantly for cervical cancer over the study period but increased non-significantly for the remaining cancer sites. Survival rates were similar to those reported in comparable countries and increased for cervical and vulvar cancer.

Discussion

Cervical cancer was the greatest contributor to the burden of anogenital cancers and showed a marked improvement in all indicators in comparison to the remaining cancer sites.

Mortality Trends After Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUND

Observational studies have reported that mortality rates after ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) have been stable since 2006 to 2010.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to evaluate the temporal trends in 1-year, 30-day, and 31- to 365-day mortality after STEMI in Western Denmark where primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has been the national reperfusion strategy since 2003.

METHODS

Using the Western Denmark Heart Registry, the study identified first-time PCI-treated patients undergoing primary PCI (pPCI) for STEMI from 2003 to 2018. Based on the year of pPCI, patients were divided into 4 time-interval groups and followed up for 1 year using the Danish national health registries.

RESULTS

A total of 19,613 patients were included. Median age was 64 years, and 74% were male. One-year mortality decreased gradually from 10.8% in 2003-2006, 10.4% in 2007-2010, 9.1% in 2011-2014, to 7.7% in 2015-2018 (2015-2018 vs 2003-2006: adjusted HR [aHR]: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.62-0.82). The largest absolute mortality decline occurred in the 0- to 30-day period with a 2.3% reduction (aHR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.59-0.82), and to a lesser extent in the 31- to 365-day period (risk reduction: 1.0%; aHR: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.56-0.90).

CONCLUSIONS

In a high-income European country with a fully implemented pPCI strategy, 1-year mortality in pPCI-treated patients with STEMI decreased substantially between 2003 and 2018. Approximately three-quarters of the absolute mortality reduction occurred within the first 30 days after pPCI. These results indicate that optimization of early management of pPCI-treated patients with STEMI offers great opportunities for improving overall survival in contemporary clinical practice.

Time-trends and age and stage differences in 5-year relative survival for common cancer types by sex in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland

BACKGROUND

Survival trends help to evaluate the progress made to reduce the burden of cancer. The aim was to estimate the trends in 5-year relative survival of patients diagnosed with breast, prostate, lung, colorectal cancer and skin melanoma in the time periods 1980-1989, 1990-1999, 2000-2009 and 2010-2015 in the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland. Furthermore, we investigated relative survival differences by TNM stage and age group.

METHODS

Data from the Cancer Registry of Zurich was used from 1980 to and including 2015, including incident cases of breast (N = 26,060), prostate (N= 23,858), colorectal (N= 19,305), lung cancer (N= 16,858) and skin melanoma (N= 9780) with follow-up until 31 December 2020. The cohort approach was used to estimate 5-year relative survival.

RESULTS

The 5-year relative survival increased significantly between 1980 and 1989, and 2010 and2015: from 0.70 to 0.89 for breast, from 0.60 to 0.92 for prostate, from 0.09 to 0.23 (men) and from 0.10 to 0.27 (women) for lung, from 0.46 to 0.66 (men) and from 0.48 to 0.68 (women) for colorectal cancer, and from 0.74 to 0.94 (men) and from 0.86 to 0.96 (women) for skin melanoma. Survival for stage IV tumors was considerably lower compared to lower-staged tumors for all cancer types. Furthermore, relative survival was similar for the age groups <80 years but lower for patients aged 80 years and older.

CONCLUSION

The observed increasing trends in survival are encouraging and likely reflect raised awareness around cancer, improved diagnostic methods, and improved treatments. The fact that stage I tumor patients have generally high relative survival reflects the efforts made regarding early detection.

Changes in incidence trends of meningioma in Finland, 1990-2017: analysis of Finnish Cancer Registry data

BACKGROUND

Meningiomas are the most common primary neoplasm of the central nervous system. Previous research on the incidence of meningioma in Finland showed an increase in the age-standardized incidence rate over three decades (1968-1997). In this study, we analysed meningioma incidence in Finland during 1990-2017.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data on 9842 meningioma patients were obtained from the Finnish Cancer Registry, and population size by calendar year, sex, and age group from Statistics Finland. The European Standard Population was used to calculate age-standardized incidence rates. Poisson regression was used to evaluate differences by sex and age, and joinpoint regression to examine changes in trend.

RESULTS

At the beginning of the study period, the age-standardized incidence of meningioma for men was 2.35/100,000 and for women 6.96/100,000. In the end, it was 4.09/100,000 and 10.19/100,000, respectively. The annual percent change (APC) for women was +4.6 (95% confidence interval, CI 3.10 to 6.20) from 1990 to 2001 and -1.0 (95% CI -1.70 to -0.30) from 2001 to 2017. For men, the APC was +3.1 (95% CI 0.80-5.40) during 1990-2002 and -0.9 (95% CI -2.10 to 0.30) in 2002-2017. The incidence of meningioma in women was 2.8 times higher than in men (rate ratio 2.81; 95% CI 2.68-2.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Meningioma incidence increased in both sexes from 1990, but the trend reversed in 2001-2002. Medical imaging or risk factors do not appear to explain the changes.

Long-Term Periodic and Conditional Survival Trends in Prostate, Testicular, and Penile Cancers in the Nordic Countries, Marking Timing of Improvements

Survival studies are important tools for cancer control, but long-term survival data on high-quality cancer registries are lacking for all cancers, including prostate (PC), testicular (TC), and penile cancers. Using generalized additive models and data from the NORDCAN database, we analyzed 1- and 5-year relative survival for these cancers in Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO), and Sweden (SE) over a 50-year period (1971-2020). We additionally estimated conditional 5/1-year survival for patients who survived the 1st year after diagnosis. Survival improved early for TC, and 5-year survival reached 90% between 1985 (SE) and 2000 (FI). Towards the end of the follow-up, the TC patients who had survived the 1st year survived the next 4 years with comparable probability to the background population. For PC, the 90% landmark was reached between 2000 (FI) and after 2010 (DK). For penile cancer, 5-year survival never reached the 90% landmark, and the improvements in survival were modest at best. For TC, early mortality requires attention, whereas late mortality should be tackled for PC. For penile cancer, the relatively high early mortality may suggest delays in diagnosis and would require more public awareness and encouragement of patients to seek medical opinion. In FI, TC and penile cancer patients showed roughly double risk of dying compared to the other Nordic countries, which warrants further study and clinical attention.

Type 1 diabetes in North East England and North Cumbria: patterns and time trends in 0-14-year-olds from 2012 to 2020

Introduction

It is important to understand patterns in the epidemiology of type 1 diabetes because they may provide insight into its etiology. We examined the incidence of type 1 diabetes in children aged 0-14 years, and patient demographics and clinical parameters at presentation, over the period 2012-2020 using the North East and North Cumbria Young Persons diabetes register.

Methods

Patients up to the age of 14 years with type 1 diabetes, and their families- managed in a total of 18 young persons diabetes clinics-were approached in person at the time of clinic appointments or in the days following diagnosis and they consented to their data being included in the register. Data were submitted regionally to a central unit. Descriptive statistics including crude and age-specific incidence rates were calculated. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression. Comparisons in incidence rates were made between age, sex and areas of higher and lower affluence as measured by the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD).

Results

A total of 943 cases were recorded between January 2012 and December 2020. Median age at diagnosis was 8.8 years (Q1: 5.3, Q3: 11.7). There were more males than females (54% male). The median HbA1c at diagnosis was 100 mmoL/L (IQR: 39) and over one third (35%) were in ketoacidosis (pH < 7.3). Crude incidence decreased from 25.5 (95% confidence interval [CI] 20.9, 29.9) in 2012 to 16.6 (95% CI: 13.0, 20.2) per 100,000 in 2020 (5.1% per annum, 95% CI 1.1, 8.8%). During the period of the study there was no evidence of any trends in median age, HbA1c, BMI or birthweight (p = 0.18, 0.80, 0.69, 0.32) at diagnosis. Higher rates were observed in males aged 10-14 years, but similar rates were found for both sexes aged 0-9 years and there was no difference between areas of higher or lower deprivation (p = 0.22).

Conclusion

The incidence of diabetes in the young may be falling in the North East of England and North Cumbria. The reasons are unclear as there were no associations identified between levels of deprivation or anthropometric measurements. Potential mechanisms include alterations in socioeconomic background or growth pattern. Further research is needed to understand the reasons behind this finding.

Temporal Trends in Infarct Severity Outcomes in ST-Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: A Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Imaging Study

Background Severity of myocardial tissue injury is a main determinant of morbidity and death related to ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Temporal trends of infarct characteristics at the myocardial tissue level have not been described. This study sought to assess temporal trends in infarct characteristics through a comprehensive assessment by cardiac magnetic resonance imaging at a standardized time point early after STEMI. Methods and Results We analyzed patients with STEMI treated with percutaneous coronary intervention at the University Hospital of Innsbruck who underwent cardiac magnetic resonance imaging between 2005 and 2021. The study period was divided into terciles. Myocardial damage characteristics were assessed using a multiparametric cardiac magnetic resonance imaging protocol within the first week after STEMI and compared between groups. A total of 843 patients with STEMI (17% women) with a median age of 57 (interquartile range, 51-66) years were analyzed. While age, sex, and the clinical risk profile expressed as thrombolysis in myocardial infarction risk score were comparable across the study period, there were differences in guideline-recommended therapies. At the same time, there was no significant change in infarct size (P=0.25), microvascular obstruction (P=0.50), and intramyocardial hemorrhage (P=0.34). Left ventricular remodeling indices and left ventricular ejection fraction remained virtually unchanged (all P>0.05). Major adverse cardiovascular events at 4 (interquartile range, 4-5) months were similar between groups (P=0.36). Conclusions In this magnetic resonance imaging study investigating patients with STEMI treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention over the past 15 years, no change in infarct severity at the myocardial level has been observed. Clinical research on novel therapeutic approaches to reduce myocardial tissue injury should be a priority.

Trends in radioactive iodine treatment after total thyroidectomy in Italy, 2001-2018

Objective

A decrease in the use of radioactive iodine (RAI) treatment for thyroid cancer has been described in the last decade in the US following subsequent updates of the American Thyroid Association guidelines. By contrast, population-based data from European countries are lacking. The study aims to assess the frequency and long-term trends in the use of RAI in Italy.

Methods

From the Italian national hospital discharge database, the proportion of RAI treatment after total thyroidectomy with thyroid cancer diagnosis has been assessed by sex and age class during 2001-2018.

Results

Throughout the whole study period, RAI was performed after 58% of 149,419 total thyroidectomies. The use of RAI was higher for men and younger patients; it peaked in 2007 (64% in women and 68% in men) and declined thereafter (2018: 46% in women and 53% in men), with a similar pattern observed across all ages and areas.

Conclusion

National data show that in Italy trends in RAI treatment paraleled those observed in the US. Further monitoring of the use of RAI is warranted in Italy, as elsewhere, to assess the impact of international guidelines on real-life clinical management of thyroid cancer.

Development of a quantitative North and Central European job exposure matrix for wood dust

Wood dust is an established carcinogen also linked to several non malignant respiratory disorders. A major limitation in research on wood dust and its health effects is the lack of (historical) quantitative estimates of occupational exposure for use in general population-based case-control or cohort studies. The present study aimed to develop a multinational quantitative Job Exposure Matrix (JEM) for wood dust exposure using exposure data from several Northern and Central European countries. For this, an occupational exposure database containing 12653 personal wood dust measurements collected between 1978 and 2007 in Denmark, Finland, France, The Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom (UK) was established. Measurement data were adjusted for differences in inhalable dust sampling efficiency resulting from the use of different dust samplers and analysed using linear mixed effect regression with job codes (ISCO-88) and country treated as random effects. Fixed effects were the year of measurement, the expert assessment of exposure intensity (no, low, and high exposure) for every ISCO-88 job code from an existing wood dust JEM and sampling duration. The results of the models suggest that wood dust exposure has declined annually by approximately 8%. Substantial differences in exposure levels between countries were observed with the highest levels in the United Kingdom and the lowest in Denmark and Norway, albeit with similar job rankings across countries. The jobs with the highest predicted exposure are floor layers and tile setters, wood-products machine operators, and building construction labourers with geometric mean levels for the year 1997 between 1.7 and 1.9 mg/m3. The predicted exposure estimates by the model are compared with the results of wood dust measurement data reported in the literature. The model predicted estimates for full-shift exposures were used to develop a time-dependent quantitative JEM for exposure to wood dust that can be used to estimate exposure for participants of general population studies in Northern European countries on the health effects from occupational exposure to wood dust.

Who, where, when: Colorectal cancer disparities by race and ethnicity, subsite, and stage

BACKGROUND

There are well-established disparities in colorectal cancer (CRC) outcomes between White and Black patients; however, assessments of CRC disparities for other racial/ethnic groups are limited.

METHODS

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database identified patients aged 50-74 years with CRC adenocarcinoma from 2000 to 2019. Trends in age-adjusted incidence rates were computed by stage at diagnosis and subsite across five broad race/ethnic groups (White, Black, Asian/Pacific Islander [API], American Indian/Alaskan Native [AIAN], and Hispanic) and four API subgroups (East Asian, Southeast Asian, South Asian, and Pacific Islander) Multivariable logistic regression evaluated associations between race/ethnicity and diagnosis stage. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models assessed differences in cause-specific survival (CSS).

RESULTS

Hispanic, AIAN, Southeast Asian, Pacific Islander, and Black patients were 3% to 28% more likely than Whites to be diagnosed with distant stage CRC, whereas East Asian and South Asians had similar or lower risk of distant stage CRC. From Cox regression analysis, Black, AIAN, and Pacific Islanders also experienced worse CSS, while East Asian and South Asian patient groups experienced better CSS. No significant differences in CSS were observed among Hispanic, Southeast Asian, and White patients. When stratified by stage, Black patients had worse CSS across all stages (early, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.38; regional, HR = 1.22; distant, HR: 1.07, p < 0.05 for all).

CONCLUSION

Despite advances in CRC screening, treatment and early detection efforts, marked racial/ethnic disparities in incidence, stage at diagnosis, and survival persist. Findings demonstrate the extent to which aggregating heterogenous populations masks significant variability in CRC outcomes within race/ethnic subgroups.

Direct medical costs of ischemic heart disease in urban Southern China: a 5-year retrospective analysis of an all-payer health claims database in Guangzhou City

Introduction

This study aimed to estimate the direct medical costs and out-of-pocket (OOP) expenses associated with inpatient and outpatient care for IHD, based on types of health insurance. Additionally, we sought to identify time trends and factors associated with these costs using an all-payer health claims database among urban patients with IHD in Guangzhou City, Southern China.

Methods

Data were collected from the Urban Employee-based Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) and the Urban Resident-based Basic Medical Insurance (URBMI) administrative claims databases in Guangzhou City from 2008 to 2012. Direct medical costs were estimated in the entire sample and by types of insurance separately. Extended Estimating Equations models were employed to identify the potential factors associated with the direct medical costs including inpatient and outpatient care and OOP expenses.

Results

The total sample included 58,357 patients with IHD. The average direct medical costs per patient were Chinese Yuan (CNY) 27,136.4 [US dollar (USD) 4,298.8] in 2012. The treatment and surgery fees were the largest contributor to direct medical costs (52.0%). The average direct medical costs of IHD patients insured by UEBMI were significantly higher than those insured by the URBMI [CNY 27,749.0 (USD 4,395.9) vs. CNY 21,057.7(USD 3,335.9), P < 0.05]. The direct medical costs and OOP expenses for all patients increased from 2008 to 2009, and then decreased during the period of 2009-2012. The time trends of direct medical costs between the UEBMI and URBMI patients were different during the period of 2008-2012. The regression analysis indicated that the UEBMI enrollees had higher direct medical costs (P < 0.001) but had lower OOP expenses (P < 0.001) than the URBMI enrollees. Male patients, patients having percutaneous coronary intervention operation and intensive care unit admission, patients treated in secondary hospitals and tertiary hospitals, patients with the LOS of 15-30 days, 30 days and longer had significantly higher direct medical costs and OOP expenses (all P < 0.001).

Conclusions

The direct medical costs and OOP expenses for patients with IHD in China were found to be high and varied between two medical insurance schemes. The type of insurance was significantly associated with direct medical costs and OOP expenses of IHD.

Response-adaptive randomization in clinical trials: from myths to practical considerations

Response-Adaptive Randomization (RAR) is part of a wider class of data-dependent sampling algorithms, for which clinical trials are typically used as a motivating application. In that context, patient allocation to treatments is determined by randomization probabilities that change based on the accrued response data in order to achieve experimental goals. RAR has received abundant theoretical attention from the biostatistical literature since the 1930's and has been the subject of numerous debates. In the last decade, it has received renewed consideration from the applied and methodological communities, driven by well-known practical examples and its widespread use in machine learning. Papers on the subject present different views on its usefulness, and these are not easy to reconcile. This work aims to address this gap by providing a unified, broad and fresh review of methodological and practical issues to consider when debating the use of RAR in clinical trials.

Socioeconomic and sex inequalities in parent-reported adolescent mental ill-health: time trends in four British birth cohorts

BACKGROUND

Studies using symptom-based screeners have suggested that mental ill-health has increased in adolescents in recent decades, however, few studies have tested the equivalence of their instruments, which is critical for inferring changes in prevalence. In addition, little research has explored whether socioeconomic position (SEP) and sex inequalities in adolescent mental health have changed over time.

METHODS

Using structural equation modelling, we explored SEP and sex differences in harmonised parent reports of emotional and behavioural problems, using data from four UK birth cohorts: the 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS'58; n = 10,868), the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS'70; n = 8,242), the 1991-92 Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC'91; n = 5,389), and the 2000-01 Millennium Cohort Study (MCS'01; n = 9,338).

RESULTS

Compared with the two earliest cohorts, members of MCS'01 had higher latent mean scores on emotional problems (both sexes), and lower scores on behavioural problems (females only). The associations between four indicators of SEP and emotional problems were strongest in MCS'01, with housing tenure having the strongest association. All four SEP indicators were associated with behavioural problems in each cohort, with housing tenure again more strongly associated with problems in the MCS'01. Mediation analyses suggested that the increase in emotional problems occurred despite broadly improving socioeconomic conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that parent reports of adolescent emotional problems, but not behavioural problems, have risen in recent generations and this trend is not solely due to reporting styles. A failure to address widening social inequalities may result in further increases in mental ill-health amongst disadvantaged young people.

Secular trends and social inequalities in child behavioural problems across three Brazilian cohort studies (1993, 2004 and 2015)

AIMS

Previous epidemiological evidence identified a concerning increase in behavioural problems among young children from 1997 to 2008 in Brazil. However, it is unclear whether behavioural problems have continued to increase, if secular changes vary between sociodemographic groups and what might explain changes over time. We aimed to monitor changes in child behavioural problems over a 22-year period from 1997 to 2019, examine changing social inequalities and explore potential explanations for recent changes in behavioural problems between 2008 and 2019.

METHODS

The Child Behaviour Checklist was used to compare parent-reported behavioural problems in 4-year-old children across three Brazilian birth cohorts assessed in 1997 (1993 cohort, n = 633), 2008 (2004 cohort, n = 3750) and 2019 (2015 cohort, n = 577). Response rates across all three population-based cohorts were over 90%. Moderation analyses tested if cross-cohort changes differed by social inequalities (demographic and socioeconomic position), while explanatory models explored whether changes in hypothesized risk and protective factors in prenatal development (e.g., smoking during pregnancy) and family life (e.g., maternal depression and harsh parenting) accounted for changes in child behavioural problems from 2008 to 2019.

RESULTS

Initial increases in child behavioural problems from 1997 to 2008 were followed by declines in conduct problems (mean change = -2.75; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -3.56, -1.94; P < 0.001), aggression (mean change = -1.84; 95% CI: -2.51, -1.17; P < 0.001) and rule-breaking behaviour (mean change = -0.91; 95% CI: -1.13, -0.69 P < 0.001) from 2008 to 2019. Sex differences in rule-breaking behaviour diminished during this 22-year period, whereas socioeconomic inequalities in behavioural problems emerged in 2008 and then remained relatively stable. Consequently, children from poorer and less educated families had higher behavioural problems, compared to more socially advantaged children, in the two more recent cohorts. Changes in measured risk and protective factors partly explained the reduction in behavioural problems from 2008 to 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

Following a rise in child behavioural problems, there was a subsequent reduction in behavioural problems from 2008 to 2019. However, social inequalities increased and remained high. Continued monitoring of behavioural problems by subgroups is critical for closing the gap between socially advantaged and disadvantaged children and achieving health equity for the next generation.

Dental caries in a Norwegian adult population, the HUNT4 oral health study; prevalence, distribution and 45-year trends

OBJECTIVE

To investigate dental caries prevalence amongst adults in Central Norway and assess changes over the last 45 years.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The cross-sectional HUNT4 Oral Health Study was conducted in 2017-2019. A random sample of 4913 participants aged ≥19 years answered questionnaires and underwent clinical and radiographic examinations. Data were compared to findings from previous studies in the same region conducted from 1973 to 2006.

RESULTS

Mean number of decayed, missing and filled teeth (D_3-5MFT) was 14.9 (95% CI 14.7, 15.1), 56% of adults had one or more carious teeth (D_3-5T) and 11.8% had ≥4 D_3-5T, with the mean number of 1.4 (95% CI 1.32, 1.42). For initial caries, mean D_1-2S was 3.8 (95% CI 3.7, 3.9), being the highest for 19-24-year-olds at 8.6 (95% CI 7.9, 9.3). Comparisons with earlier studies showed a decline in mean D_3-5MFT for 35-44-year-olds from 26.5 in 1973 to 10.8 in 2019. In 1973, 4.8% of 35-44-year-olds were edentulous, while in present study edentulousness was found only in individuals >65 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a substantial reduction in caries experience over the last 45 years, untreated dentine caries was common, evenly distributed across all age groups. Initial caries particularly affected younger individuals, indicating a need to evaluate prevention strategies and access to dental services.

Time trends, projections, and spatial distribution of low birthweight in Australia, 2009-2030: Evidence from the National Perinatal Data Collection

INTRODUCTION

Infants with low birthweight (LBW, birthweight <2500 g) have increased in many high-resource countries over the past two decades. This study aimed to investigate the time trends, projections, and spatial distribution of LBW in Australia, 2009-2030.

METHODS

We used standard aggregate data on 3 346 808 births from 2009 to 2019 from Australia's National Perinatal Data Collection. Bayesian linear regression model was used to estimate the trends in the prevalence of LBW in Australia.

RESULTS

Wefound that the prevalence of LBW was 6.18% in 2009, which has increased to 6.64% in 2019 (average annual rate of change, AARC = +0.76%). If the national trend remains the same, the projected prevalence of LBW in Australia will increase to 7.34% (95% uncertainty interval, UI = 6.99, 7.68) in 2030. Observing AARC across different subpopulations, the trend of LBW was stable among Indigenous mothers, whereas it increased among non-Indigenous mothers (AARC = +0.81%). There is also an increase among the most disadvantaged mothers (AARC = +1.08%), birthing people in either of two extreme age groups (AARC = +1.99% and +1.53% for <20 years and ≥40 years, respectively), and mothers who smoked during pregnancy (AARC = +1.52%). Spatiotemporal maps showed that some of the Statistical Area level 3 (SA3) in Northern Territory and Queensland had consistently higher prevalence for LBW than the national average from 2014 to 2019.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the prevalence of LBW has increased in Australia during 2009-2019; however, the trends vary across different subpopulations. If trends persist, Australia will not achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target of a 30% reduction in LBW by 2030. Centering and supporting the most vulnerable subpopulations is vital to progress the SDGs and improves perinatal and infant health in Australia.

Time trends in mental health indicators in Germany's adult population before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

Times of crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic are expected to compromise mental health. Despite a large number of studies, evidence on the development of mental health in general populations during the pandemic is inconclusive. One reason may be that representative data spanning the whole pandemic and allowing for comparisons to pre-pandemic data are scarce.

Methods

We analyzed representative data from telephone surveys of Germany's adults. Three mental health indicators were observed in ~1,000 and later up to 3,000 randomly sampled participants monthly until June 2022: symptoms of depression (observed since April 2019, PHQ-2), symptoms of anxiety (GAD-2), and self-rated mental health (latter two observed since March 2021). We produced time series graphs including estimated three-month moving means and proportions of positive screens (PHQ/GAD-2 score ≥ 3) and reports of very good/excellent mental health, as well as smoothing curves. We also compared time periods between years. Analyses were stratified by sex, age, and level of education.

Results

While mean depressive symptom scores declined from the first wave of the pandemic to summer 2020, they increased from October 2020 and remained consistently elevated throughout 2021 with another increase between 2021 and 2022. Correspondingly, the proportion of positive screens first decreased from 11.1% in spring/summer 2019 to 9.3% in the same period in 2020 and then rose to 13.1% in 2021 and to 16.9% in 2022. While depressive symptoms increased in all subgroups at different times, developments among women (earlier increase), the youngest (notable increase in 2021) and eldest adults, as well as the high level of education group (both latter groups: early, continuous increases) stand out. However, the social gradient in symptom levels between education groups remained unchanged. Symptoms of anxiety also increased while self-rated mental health decreased between 2021 and 2022.

Conclusion

Elevated symptom levels and reduced self-rated mental health at the end of our observation period in June 2022 call for further continuous mental health surveillance. Mental healthcare needs of the population should be monitored closely. Findings should serve to inform policymakers and clinicians of ongoing dynamics to guide health promotion, prevention, and care.

Type 1 diabetes incidence in Scotland between 2006 and 2019

AIMS

To describe type 1 diabetes incidence in Scotland between 2006 and 2019.

METHODS

Repeated annual cross-sectional studies of type 1 diabetes incidence were conducted. Incident cases were identified from the Scottish Care Information-Diabetes Collaboration (SCI-DC), a population-based register of people with diagnosed diabetes derived from primary and secondary care data. Mid-year population estimates for Scotland were used as the denominator to calculate annual incidence with stratification by age and sex. Joinpoint regression was used to investigate whether incidence changed during the study period. Age and sex-specific type 1 diabetes incidence over the whole time period was estimated by quintile of the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), an area-based measure, in which Q1 and Q5 denote the most and least deprived fifths of the population, respectively, with quasi-Poisson regression used to compare incidence for Q5 compared to Q1.

RESULTS

The median (IQR) age of the study population of 14,564 individuals with incident type 1 diabetes was 24.1 (12.3-42.4) years, 56% were men, 23% were in Q1 and 16% were in Q5. Incidence of T1DM was higher in men than women overall (at around 22 and 17 per 100,000, respectively) and in under 15 year olds (approximately 40 per 100,000 in both sexes) than other age groups and was similar across the study period in all strata. There was an inverse association between socio-economic status and type 1 diabetes incidence for 15-29, 30-49 and 50+ year olds [incidence rate ratio (IRR) for Q5 compared to Q1; IRR (95% CI) 0.52 (0.47-0.58), 0.68 (0.61-0.76) and 0.53(0.46-0.61), respectively] but not for under 15 year olds [1.02 (0.92-1.12)].

CONCLUSION

Incidence of type 1 diabetes varies by age, sex and socio-economic status and has remained approximately stable from 2006 to 2019 in Scotland.

Time trends in prevalence of p16 positivity and combined HPV/p16 positivity in a large cohort of Danish vulvar cancer patients

Vulvar cancer is rare, but causes substantial morbidity in affected patients. A subset of vulvar cancers is caused by high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV), which primarily exerts its oncogenic effect through upregulation of tumor suppressor protein p16. Tumors positive for both hrHPV and p16 (double positive) are assumed to be HPV-driven, but only few large studies have investigated the combined prevalence of hrHPV and p16 positivity in vulvar cancer over time. In this Danish cross-sectional study, we assessed the prevalence of p16 positivity and double positivity for hrHPV and p16 in a large sample of vulvar squamous cell carcinomas (VSCCs) diagnosed during 1990 to 2017. In a nationwide register, we identified VSCCs from 13 hospitals across Denmark, and collected archival tumor tissue for hrHPV testing with INNO-LiPA and immunohistochemical p16 staining. We calculated the prevalence of hrHPV, p16 positivity and double positivity according to time, age and histological subtype and evaluated time trends through estimated annual percentage changes. We included 1278 VSCCs. Overall, 35.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 32.4-37.6) were positive for p16 and 31.0% (95% CI: 28.4-33.5) were positive for both hrHPV and p16. The prevalence of p16 positivity and double positivity increased over time, both in women aged ≤59 and ≥60 years. The double positive prevalence was higher in nonkeratinizing (60.7%) and warty/basaloid VSCCs (67.5%) than in keratinizing (16.1%) and verrucous VSCCs (5.0%). These results indicate that approximately one-third of vulvar cancers were caused by hrHPV infection, supporting a substantial preventive potential of the HPV vaccine.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Short-Stay Total Knee Arthroplasty

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to understand racial and ethnic disparities in hospital-based, Medicare-defined outpatient total knee arthroplasty (TKA). We aimed to determine the following: 1) whether there are differences in preoperative characteristics or postoperative outcomes in outpatient TKA between racial/ethnic groups and 2) trends in outpatient TKA volume, based on race/ethnicity.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of a large national database. Outpatient TKAs performed between 2012 and 2018 were identified. Patient demographics, comorbidities, and 30-day postoperative outcomes were compared between White, Black, Asian, and Hispanic patients.

RESULTS

Of 54,183 outpatient patients, 85.6% were White, 7.4% Black, 2.6% Asian, and 4.1% Hispanic. Black patients had the highest body mass index, and there were higher rates of diabetes among all minority groups (P < .001). All minority groups were more likely to be discharged to a rehabilitation or a skilled care facility compared to White patients (P < .001). Annual percentage increases in outpatient TKA were most pronounced for Asians and Hispanics and least pronounced among Blacks, when compared to White patients.

CONCLUSION

The outcomes of outpatient TKA are impacted by risk factors that reflect underlying disparities in healthcare. As joint arthroplasties have come off the inpatient-only list and procedures move to ambulatory settings, these disparities will likely magnify and impact outcomes, costs, and access points. Extensive preoperative optimization and interventions that target medical and social factors may help to reduce these disparities in TKA and increase access among minority patients.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

III, retrospective cohort study.

Late diagnosis of HIV infection in Warsaw: Estimating the scale of the problem and demographic trends

BACKGROUND

Late diagnosis of a significant number of people with HIV remains a problem. This study analysed 1711 patients from the Hospital for Infectious Diseases in Warsaw who were diagnosed with HIV infection in 2008-2010 and 2016-2018.

METHODS

Patients with late diagnosis and advanced disease were distinguished on the basis of the consensus definition. In statistical analysis, non-parametric tests were used to compare the groups: the χ² test for categorized data and the Mann-Whitney U test for the comparison of continuous variables.

RESULTS

There were no statistically significant differences in the percentage of patients with early diagnosis, late diagnosis, advanced disease and patients with an indicator disease between the two analysed periods in the Warsaw centre. A much higher percentage of men than women was found. The dominant route of acquisition among newly diagnosed patients and among late presenters in both periods were men who have sex with men (MSM). The highest percentage of patients with late diagnosis was among heterosexual men and the lowest was among MSM in both periods.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the analysis of patients from the Warsaw centre confirmed that late diagnosis of HIV infection continues to be a problem, with no improvement seen over the analysed periods, although the scale of the problem is smaller than in national and European statistics. MSM and heterosexual men appear to be key groups in need of intensified testing.

Tracing Time Trends of Births in Greece

Introduction The aim of this study was to comprehensively investigate and present time trends in births in Greece over the last seven decades. Methods Data on live births were derived from the Hellenic Statistical Authority, covering a 72-year period from 1950 to 2021. Trends in the number of births were assessed using joinpoint regression analysis. The annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated with a 95% confidence interval (95% CI) and level of statistical significance p<0.05. Results The overall trend during 1950-2021 was clearly downward (AAPC = -0.9, 95% CI: -1.2 to -0.7). Over the first three decades, births fluctuated to a record high of 162,839 in 1967, with an overall slight downward trend (1950-1981: APC = -0.2, 95% CI: -0.4 to -0.1, p<0.001). During the 1980 decade, the trend was sharply downward (1981-1988: APC = -4.7, 95% CI: -6.2 to -3.2, p<0.001), followed by a stabilization in the 1990s (1988-2001: APC = -0.1, 95% CI: -0.7 to 0.4, p=0.586). The first decade of the 21st century was the only period during the last seven decades with an increasing trend in births in the Greek population (2001-2008: APC = 1.9, 95% CI: 0.3 to 3.5, p = 0.021), but it was followed by plummeting trends during the recent years (2008-2021: APC = -2.7, 95% CI: -3.2 to -2.3, p<0.001), leading to the historic low of 83,756 births in 2019. Conclusion The time trend analysis of births in Greece indicated a dramatic plummet in natality in Greece, predominantly attributed to the large decline in births in the 1980s, which could not be reversed in the 1990s and 2000s. The recent decrease in births was associated with the financial recession and has put the Greek population in a disastrous low-fertility spiral.

The Global, Regional, and National Burdens of Cervical Cancer Attributable to Smoking From 1990 to 2019: Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cause of cancer death in women worldwide. Smoking is one of the risk factors for cervical cancer. Understanding the global distribution of the disease burden of cervical cancer attributable to smoking and related changes is of clear significance for the prevention and control of cervical cancer in key populations and for tobacco control. As far as we know, research on the burden of cervical cancer attributable to smoking is lacking.

OBJECTIVE

We estimated the disease burden and mortality of cervical cancer attributable to smoking and related trends over time at the global, regional, and national levels.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study website. Age-standardized rates were used to facilitate comparisons of mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) at different levels. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to assess trends in the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR). A Pearson correlation analysis was used to evaluate correlations between the sociodemographic index and the age-standardized rates.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were 30,136.65 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 14,945.09-49,639.87) cervical cancer-related deaths and 893,735.25 (95% UI 469,201.51-1,440,050.85) cervical cancer-related DALYs attributable to smoking. From 1990 to 2019, the global burden of cervical cancer attributable to smoking showed a decreasing trend around the world; the EAPCs for ASMR and ASDR were -2.11 (95% CI -2.16 to -2.06) and -2.22 (95% CI -2.26 to -2.18), respectively. In terms of age characteristics, in 2019, an upward trend was observed for age in the mortality of cervical cancer attributable to smoking. Analysis of the trend in DALYs with age revealed an initially increasing and then decreasing trend. From 1990 to 2019, the burden of disease in different age groups showed a downward trend. Among 204 countries, 180 countries showed downward trends, 10 countries showed upward trends, and the burden was stable in 14 countries. The Pearson correlation analysis revealed a significant negative correlation between sociodemographic index and the age-standardized rates of cervical cancer attributable to smoking (ρ=-0.228, P<.001 for ASMR and ρ=-0.223, P<.001 for ASDR).

CONCLUSIONS

An increase over time in the absolute number of cervical cancer deaths and DALYs attributable to smoking and a decrease over time in the ASMR and ASDR for cervical cancer attributable to smoking were observed in the overall population, and differences in these variables were also observed between countries and regions. More attention should be paid to cervical cancer prevention and screening in women who smoke, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

Exploring sex-specific time trends in drinking patterns in the Greenlandic population from 1993 to 2014 - a large Arctic Indigenous population

A drinking pattern characterised by occasional excessive drinking is a key challenge for public health in Greenland. The objective was to examine sex-specific time trends in drinking patterns among Greenland Inuit. Cross-sectional and cohort data from geographically representative health surveys in 1993, 2005–2010 and 2014 were included (n = 4,938). Drinking patterns were defined as abstainer, non-problematic and occasional binge drinking. Patterns were analysed by sex-specific crude proportions and logistical analyses according to age, birth cohort and calendar time, accounting for region and settlement type. More than half of the men and one-third of the women had an occasional binge drinking pattern, while 22.6% of females and 15.1% of men were abstainers. Abstention increased with increasing age, while occasional binge drinking decreased among men. Younger male birth cohorts were less likely to have an occasional binge drinking pattern, while the youngest females had the highest odds ratio. A drinking pattern characterised by occasional excessive use remains a key challenge for public health in Greenland with age as a strong predictor. A high prevalence of abstainers co-exists with a high prevalence of occasional binge drinking. The increased odds ratio for occasional binge drinking among younger females should be addressed further.

Homicide associated with psychotic illness: What global temporal trends tell us about the association between mental illness and violence

Available evidence suggests that persons with serious forms of mental illness are 4-10 times more likely to commit homicide as compared to non-affected members of the general population. The relationship between homicide and psychotic illness has now been subject to longitudinal investigation in six different populations across eight studies covering time periods over the last six decades. With the exception of one study, these investigations demonstrate that homicide associated with psychotic illness appears relatively stable through time and, in most populations, is not related to factors that contribute to the rise and fall of total population homicide (TPH) rates. This suggests that illness and treatment factors are of most importance if we are to reduce the prevalence of this tragic illness complication.

Pathway to Hospice: How Has Place of Care before Hospice Changed with the Growth of Hospice in the United States?

Background: Hospice use among Medicare decedents increased from 21.6% in 2000 to 51.6% in 2019. Whether this growth has been accompanied by more referrals to hospice directly from the community is not known. Objective: To assess trends in place of care before hospice enrollment. Design: Retrospective cohort from 2011 to 2018. Subjects: Medicare decedents age ≥66 years. Measure: Location of care before hospice enrollment in the last 90 days of life, defined as: the community with and without home health, short- or long-term nursing facility, or inpatient hospital. A county-level random effects model examined changes in enrollment from the community after adjusting for admitting diagnosis, age, race/ethnicity, sex, and Medicaid participation. Results: Among hospice enrollees (N = 7,650,933), 27.7% transitioned to hospice from the community, 31.8% transitioned from the hospital, and 10.1% transitioned after short- or long-term nursing facility stay. Rates of enrollment to hospice from the community remained stable from 35.1% in 2011 to 34.3% in 2018. After adjustment, the proportion enrolling in hospice from the community decreased by 1.2% (95% confidence interval -1.0% to 1.4%). Place of care before hospice enrollment in 2018 varied by hospice admitting diagnosis, with patients with cancer more likely to enroll from the community (39.5%) and patients with cerebrovascular accidents from the hospital (53.2%). Prior place of care varied by state, with Florida having the highest rate of the enrollment following hospitalization (47.8%). Conclusion: Despite the growth of hospice, the site of care before hospice enrollment has remained relatively stable and was strongly influenced by region.

Regional variations and temporal trends of childhood myopia prevalence in Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

To provide contemporary and future estimates of childhood myopia prevalence in Africa.

METHODS

A systematic online literature search was conducted for articles on childhood (≤18 years) myopia (spherical equivalent [SE] ≤ -0.50D; high myopia: SE ≤ -6.00D) in Africa. Population- or school-based cross-sectional studies published from 1 Jan 2000 to 30 May 2021 were included. Meta-analysis using Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation was performed to estimate the prevalence of childhood myopia and high myopia. Myopia prevalence from subgroup analyses for age groups and settings were used as baseline for generating a prediction model using linear regression.

RESULTS

Forty-two studies from 19 (of 54) African countries were included in the meta-analysis (N = 737,859). Overall prevalence of childhood myopia and high myopia were 4.7% (95% CI: 3.3%-6.5%) and 0.6% (95% CI: 0.2%-1.1%), respectively. Estimated prevalence across the African regions was highest in the North (6.8% [95% CI: 4.0%-10.2%]), followed by Southern (6.3% [95% CI: 3.9%-9.1%]), East (4.7% [95% CI: 3.1%-6.7%]) and West (3.5% [95% CI: 1.9%-6.3%]) Africa. Prevalence from 2011 to 2021 was approximately double that from 2000 to 2010 for all studies combined, and between 1.5 and 2.5 times higher for ages 5-11 and 12-18 years, for boys and girls and for urban and rural settings, separately. Childhood myopia prevalence is projected to increase in urban settings and older children to 11.1% and 10.8% by 2030, 14.4% and 14.1% by 2040 and 17.7% and 17.4% by 2050, respectively; marginally higher than projected in the overall population (16.4% by 2050).

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood myopia prevalence has approximately doubled since 2010, with a further threefold increase predicted by 2050. Given this trajectory and the specific public health challenges in Africa, it is imperative to implement basic myopia prevention programmes, enhance spectacle coverage and ophthalmic services and generate more data to understand the changing myopia epidemiology to mitigate the expanding risk of the African population.

Prevalence and Incidence Rates of Atrial Fibrillation in Denmark 2004–2018

Purpose

To estimate the prevalence and incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Denmark during 2004–2018 and to investigate whether methodological choices influence these estimates.

Patients and Methods

A register-based cohort study was conducted of all individuals aged ≥18 years in Denmark 2004–2018. The cumulative prevalence of AF at the end of the study period was calculated as the number of AF cases alive with at least one inpatient or two outpatient diagnoses during 1994–2018 divided by the number of Danish residents in 2018. Incidence rates were calculated as the number of annual AF cases with no previous diagnosis in the past 10 years (ie, a 10-year washout period) divided by the person-time contributed by the population free of AF on 1 January in the same calendar year. Furthermore, the influence of varying case definitions was investigated.

Results

The cumulative prevalence of AF was 3.0% in 2018. The incidence rate increased from 391 to 481 per 100,000 person-years (PYs) from 2004 to 2015 (1.7% average annual increase) after which it declined to 367 per 100,000 PYs in 2018 (8.5% average annual decrease). This pattern was observed in both sexes irrespective of age. Methodological choices, particularly the case definition’s strictness and the length of the washout period, had a substantial influence on the reported estimates.

Conclusion

The cumulative prevalence of AF is currently around 3.0% in the Danish population, but the incidence has declined since 2015. As these estimates are influenced by methodological choices, future studies should strive for precise reporting of study methodology.

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Endometriosis prevalence and incidence trends in a large population-based study in Catalonia (Spain) from 2009 to 2018

Objective:

Endometriosis greatly impacts women’s health and quality of life. However, research on the prevalence and incidence of endometriosis remains inconclusive. This study assesses time trends in the prevalence and incidence of endometriosis diagnoses in Catalonia (Spain) from 2009 to 2018, considering differences by age and socioeconomic status.

Methods:

Population-based cohort study using data from the Information System for Research in Primary Care (SIDIAP) database. Data were included from over 2.4 million women aged 15–55 years between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2018.

Results:

A total of 2,337,717 women were selected as the incident population; 0.7% had an endometriosis diagnosis. Median (interquartile range) age at diagnosis was 37 (32–43) years. Most women were European (92.3%) and lived in urban areas (73.6%). Overall prevalence of endometriosis consistently increased during the 2009–2018 period, and it was 1.24% in 2018. Trends were the highest for women with less socioeconomic deprivation and for the 35–44 years age group. Median incidence rates were 94.9 (92.6–102.9) per 100,000 women-years, being the highest in women aged 35–44 years throughout the whole study period. Overall, incidence increased between 2015 and 2017, and plateaued or decreased in 2018. Incidence rates in women from the most deprived and rural areas were lower, although incidence time trends by socioeconomic status were unclear.

Conclusion:

Healthcare services and public health strategies need to be strengthened to ensure timely endometriosis diagnosis and treatment. Special attention should be given to the most affected populations and the social inequities of health.

Dementia and Related Comorbidities in the Population Aged 90 and Over in the Vitality 90+ Study, Finland: Patterns and Trends From 2001 to 2018

OBJECTIVES

To examine trends in the prevalence of dementia and related comorbidities among the oldest old.

METHODS

Six repeated cross-sectional surveys were conducted between 2001 and 2018, each including all inhabitants aged over 90 in Tampere, Finland (n = 5386). Co-occurring conditions and their time trends among participants with dementia were examined using logistic regression and generalized estimating equations.

RESULTS

The prevalence of dementia decreased from 47% in 2007 to 41% in 2018. Throughout the study period, depression was more common among people with dementia compared to those without. The prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, and osteoarthritis increased and the prevalence of depression decreased among people with dementia. The mean number of comorbidities increased from 2.0 in 2001 to 2.3 in 2018.

DISCUSSION

Dementia remains highly prevalent among the oldest old and it is accompanied by an increasing burden of comorbidities, posing a challenge to people with dementia, their caregivers, and care systems.

Total and Added Sugar Intakes Are Increasing among Children and Adolescents in China: Findings from CHNS 1997-2011

A high level of sugar intake has been linked to poor dietary quality and a wide range of chronic diseases. However, data on sugar intake are still scarce in China. This study aimed to provide time trends in the total and added sugar intakes among Chinese children and adolescents from 1997 to 2011. A nationwide ongoing open prospective cohort study of Chinese children and adolescents aged 3−17 years (n = 13,212) was conducted by using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) 1997−2011 (six 1-year cycles). An individual dietary intake was collected from three consecutive 24-h recalls during randomly allocated home visits. Data for total and added sugar contents were determined based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Nutrient Database for Standard Reference, Release 28 (SR28), the Food Patterns Equivalents Database (FPED) 2015−2016, and the labeled ingredients and nutrient contents. General linear regression was used to estimate time trends. Over the 15-year period, total sugar and added sugar intakes increased among all age groups studied (3−17 years: total sugar increased from 11.2 ± 0.3 g/d to 28.1 ± 0.5 g/d, added sugar increased from 1.0 ± 0.1 g/d to 7.2 ± 0.3 g/d; 3−6 years: 9.5 ± 0.6 g/d to 25.1 ± 0.9 g/d, 1.3 ± 0.2 g/d to 6.9 ± 0.4 g/d; 7−12 years: 11.4 ± 0.5 g/d to 28.1 ± 0.8 g/d, 0.9 ± 0.1 g/d to 7.1 ± 0.5 g/d; 13−17 years: 11.8 ± 0.4 g/d to 31.4 ± 1.1 g/d, 1.0 ± 0.2 g/d to 7.6 ± 0.6 g/d) (all p for trend < 0.001). Adolescents aged 13−17 years had the highest total sugar intake, and children aged 3−6 years had the highest added sugar intake, except for 2011. Children and adolescents living in urban areas and who were overweight had much higher total and added sugar intakes than those residing in rural areas and of non-overweight/obesity. Furthermore, the dietary sources of total and added sugars have become more diverse over the study period. In conclusion, we observed a notable rise in total and added sugar intakes among children and adolescents across all age groups, both genders, both urban and rural areas, and all BMI categories, with dietary sources of total and added sugars becoming more diverse in China over 15 years.