Effect of ambient ozone pollution on disease burden globally: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

Exposure to ambient ozone pollution causes health loss and even death, and both are the main risk factors for the disease burden worldwide. We comprehensively evaluated the ozone pollution-related disease burden.

METHODS

First, numbers and age-standardized rates of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were assessed globally and by sub-types in 2019. Furthermore, the temporal trend of the disease burden was explored by the linear regression model from 1990 to 2019. The cluster analysis was used to evaluate the changing pattern of related disease burden across Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) regions. Finally, the age-period-cohort (APC) model and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model were used to predict the future disease burden in the next 25 years.

RESULT

Exposure to ozone pollution contributed to 365,222 deaths and 6,210,145 DALYs globally in 2019, which accounted for 0.65 % of deaths globally and 0.24 % of DALYs globally. The disease burden was consistently increasing with age. Males were high-risk populations and low-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) regions were high-risk areas. The disease burden of ozone pollution varied considerably across the GBD regions and the countries. In 2019, the number of deaths and DALYs cases increased by 76.11 % and 56.37 %, respectively compared to those in 1990. The predicted results showed that the number of deaths cases and DALYs cases for both genders would still increase from 2020 to 2044.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, ambient ozone pollution has threatened public health globally. More proactive and effective strategic measures should be developed after considering global-specific circumstances.

Burden of Stroke Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperature in 204 Countries and Territories: A Population-Based Study, 1990-2019

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Stroke attributable to nonoptimal temperature needs more attention with dramatic climate change. The aim of this study was to estimate the global burden and distribution characteristics of the burden.

METHODS

In this ecological study, we collected data from the Climate Research Unit Gridded Time Series, the World Bank databases, and the Global Burden of Diseases study to estimate the distribution of burden. We used the joinpoint model, decomposition analysis, age-period-cohort model, panel data analysis, and health inequality analysis to assess the different types of stroke burden attributable to different climatic conditions.

RESULTS

The burden of stroke attributable to nonoptimal temperature continued to grow, and aging was a key factor in this increase. In 2019, 521,031 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 402,433-663,996) deaths and 9,423,649 (95% UI 7,207,660-12,055,172) disability-adjusted life years [DALYs] attributable to stroke due to nonoptimal temperature were recorded globally. Globally, men (age-standardized mortality rate [ASMR] 7.70, 95% UI 5.80-9.73; age-standardized DALY rate [ASDR] 139.69, 95% UI 102.96-178.54 in 2019) had a heavier burden than women (ASMR 5.89, 95% UI 4.50-7.60; ASDR 96.02, 95% UI 72.62-123.85 in 2019). Central Asia (ASMR 18.12, 95% UI 13.40-24.53; ASDR 327.35, 95% UI 240.24-440.61 in 2019) had the heaviest burden at the regional level. In the national level, North Macedonia (ASMR 32.97, 95% UI 20.57-47.44 in 2019) and Mongolia (ASDR 568.54, 95% UI 242.03-1,031.14 in 2019) had the highest ASMR/ASDR, respectively. Low temperature currently contributes to the main burden (deaths 474,002, 95% UI 355,077-606,537; DALYs 8,357,198, 95% UI 6,186,217-10,801,911 attributable to low temperature vs deaths 48,030, 95% UI 5,630-104,370; DALYs 1,089,329, 95% UI 112,690-2,375,345 attributable to high temperature in 2019). However, the burden due to high temperature has increased rapidly, especially among people aged older than 10 years, and was disproportionately concentrated in low sociodemographic index (SDI) regions such as Africa. In addition, the rapid increase in the stroke burden due to high temperature in Central Asia also requires special attention.

DISCUSSION

This is the first study to assess the global stroke burden attributed to nonoptimal temperature. The dramatic increase in the burden due to high temperature requires special attention, especially in low-SDI countries.

Antibiotics or Tonsillectomy for Adult Recurrent Tonsillitis: Analyzing the Lesser of Two Evils

OBJECTIVE

To determine the best timing for surgical intervention for adults with recurrent tonsillitis (RT).

METHODS

A Markov model was constructed using variables and ranges based upon a literature review. A 1-way sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the number of yearly bouts at which each algorithm (antibiotics or tonsillectomy) would be favored. A Monte-Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analysis was calculated for gains and cost. Model outcomes were measured with quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) for tonsillectomy versus repeat antibiotic treatment.

RESULTS

Patients expected to sustain a single annual tonsillitis event will have a negative QALY of 0.02 if treated with surgery and those with 2 annual events will have a QALY gain from undergoing tonsillectomy of 0.01, 3 events = 0.03, 4 events = 0.05, 5 events = 0.07, 6 events = 0.09, 7 events = 0.1, and 8 events = 0.11. These gains became meaningful only after 2 years of recurrent bouts. The average cost of tonsillectomy was 3,238 USD, and the overall average cost of RT was 7,069 USD (an incremental cost of 3,831 USD). The ICER of tonsillectomy over antibiotic treatment for 1 QALY gain was 44,741 USD.

CONCLUSION

Adult patients who sustain more than 3 annual bouts of tonsillitis over a period of at least 2 years will gain QALY after tonsillectomy. These gains increase proportionally to the number of yearly events and perennial episodes. The incremental costs of tonsillectomy fail to meet the NICE guidelines but are within other acceptable reference ranges.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

NA Laryngoscope, 134:2153-2161, 2024.

Disability-Adjusted Life Years Resulting from Ocular Injury among Deployed Service Members, 2001-2020

PURPOSE

To quantify the burden of ocular injuries on deployed US service members by calculating disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

DESIGN

Retrospective, observational cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

US service members with ocular injuries sustained in combat zones from January 1, 2001 to May 19, 2020.

METHODS

Health states and duration of injuries were identified using data from the Defense and Veterans Eye Injury and Vision Registry. These health states were mapped to disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Average duration of injury or illness was calculated until remission or death. For the latter, life expectancy at age of sustaining injury, as identified from US Life Tables from the National Vital Statistics Reports 2020, was used. Using Defense Manpower Data Center reports capturing number of service members deployed per year, incidence rates were calculated for ocular injury and DALYs.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Disability-adjusted life years of ocular injury.

RESULTS

Seventeen thousand five hundred fifty-five patients sustained ocular injury that incurred DALYs. In total, these injuries resulted in 11 214 DALYs (average, 0.64 DALYs per included patient and 20.6 DALYs per 10 000 US service members per year). Severe impairment of distance vision (77.9%) and blindness (10.6%) were the primary contributors of DALYs. Although only 9.3% of patients sustained a permanent ocular injury, permanent disability accounted for 99.5% of total DALYs. The average yearly incidence rate of ocular injury was 32.0 cases per 10 000 US service members. Foreign body was the most frequent injury type (2754 occurrences), followed by abrasion (2419 occurrences) and multiple injury types (1429 occurrences). The most DALYs occurred in patients with multiple injury types (2485 DALYs), followed by abrasion (accounting for 725 DALYs) and foreign body (accounting for 461 DALYs).

DISCUSSION

We report higher average DALYs per case ratio among US service members compared with the general population studied by the GBD study, highlighting the differences in probabilities of permanent injury between the two studies. Our study provides understanding of the impact of ocular injuries on active-duty service members and lays the groundwork for further research and interventions to mitigate their burden.

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S)

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Global, Regional, and National Burdens of Otitis Media From 1990 to 2019: A Population Based Study

OBJECTIVES

Otitis media is one of the most important causes of hearing loss at an early age. Effective vaccination with the routine 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7) was introduced in 2000. It has been gradually replaced by the pneumococcal nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine or the higher-valent 13-valent PCV (PCV-13) since 2010. Data on the change in otitis media burden in recent years are sparse at the global, regional, and national levels.

DESIGN

The Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to evaluate the prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates, and the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in otitis media in geographic populations worldwide from 1990 to 2019. These global trends were further analyzed by subgroup (age, sex, and sociodemographic index [SDI]).

RESULTS

Globally, the all-age rate of prevalence (AAPC = -0.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.7 to -0.8), DALYs (AAPC = -1.0, 95% CI = -1.1 to -1.0), and mortality (AAPC = -6.8, 95% CI = -7.3 to -6.4) from otitis media decreased constantly between 1990 and 2019. The all-age rate of incidence decreased sharply between 2000 and 2009 with an AAPC of -1.2 (95% CI = -1.4 to -0.9) and continued the downward trend between 2010 and 2019 (AAPC = -0.2, 95% CI = -0.3 to -0.1). In 2019, children aged 1 to 4 years old had the highest incidence at 29,127.3 per 100,000 population, while young adults under 30 years old accounted for 91.3% of the incident cases. Individuals living in middle-SDI countries had the largest increase in the incidence of otitis media, with an AAPC of 0.3 (95% CI = 0.3 to 0.3) between 1990 and 2019. The incidence and DALYs from otitis media decreased with increasing SDI. Regionally, the largest increase in incidence was observed in high-income Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, and Western Sub-Saharan Africa between 1990 and 2019. Nationally, the largest increase in the incidence of otitis media was observed in the Republic of Korea, with an AAPC of 0.8 (95% CI = 0.6 to 1.1) in the same time period.

CONCLUSIONS

There have been successful previous endeavors to reduce DALYs and mortality attributed to otitis media on a global scale. The worldwide incidence of otitis media experienced a sharp decline following the introduction of PCV-7 in 2000, and this downward trend persisted in subsequent years with the adoption of PCV-13/pneumococcal nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine. Continual epidemiological surveillance of otitis media's global trends, pathogen distribution, and resistance patterns remains imperative.

Measuring the cost-effectiveness of treating rectovaginal and vesicovaginal fistulas: A multicenter global study by the Fistula Foundation

OBJECTIVE

Surgery for obstetric fistula is a highly effective treatment to restore continence and improve quality of life. However, a lack of data on the cost-effectiveness of this procedure limits prioritization of this essential treatment. This study measures the effectiveness of fistula surgeries using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted.

METHODS

In 2021 and 2022, the Fistula Foundation funded 20 179 fistula surgeries and related procedures at 143 hospitals among 27 countries. We calculated DALYs averted specifically for vesicovaginal fistula and rectovaginal fistula procedure types (n = 13 235 surgeries) by using disability weights from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study. We based cost calculations on direct treatment expenses, including medical supplies, health provider fees, and preoperative and postoperative care. We measured effectiveness using data on the risk of permanent disability, country-specific average life spans, and treatment outcomes.

RESULTS

The total treatment cost was $7.6 million, and a total of 131 433 DALYs were averted. Thus, the cost per DALY averted-the cost to restore 1 year of healthy life-was $58. For this analysis, we took a cautious approach and weighted only surgeries that resulted in a closed fistula with restored continence. We calculated DALYs averted by country. Limitations of the study include data entry errors inherent in patient logs and lack of long-term outcomes.

CONCLUSION

The current study demonstrates that obstetric fistula surgery, along with having a significant positive impact on maternal health outcomes, is highly cost-effective in comparison with other interventions. The study therefore highlights the benefits of prioritizing fistula treatment as part of the global agenda for maternal health care.

Spatial-temporal trends in leprosy burden and its associations with socioeconomic and physical geographic factors: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of our study was to assess the multiscalar changes in leprosy burden and its associated risk factors over the last three decades.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted an in-depth examination of leprosy's spatial-temporal trends at multiple geographical scale (global, regional, and national), utilizing information from Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019).

METHODS

Incidence and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of leprosy were determined, with countries categorized based on leprosy incidence changes. We examined socioeconomic and physical geography influences on leprosy incidence via Spearman correlation analysis, using ternary phase diagrams to reveal the synergetic effects on leprosy occurrence.

RESULTS

Globally, incident cases of leprosy decreased by 27.86% from 1990 to 2019, with a reduction in ASIR (EAPC = -2.53), yet trends were not homogeneous across regions. ASIR and EAPC correlated positively with sociodemographic index (SDI), and an ASIR growth appeared in high SDI region (EAPC = 3.07). Leprosy burden was chiefly distributed in Tropical Latin America, Oceania, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia. Negative correlations were detected between the incidence of leprosy and factors of SDI, GDP per capita, urban population to total population, and precipitation, whereas the number of refugee population, temperature, and elevation showed opposite positive results.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a global decline in leprosy over the past three decades, the disparities of disease occurrence at regional and national scales still persisted. Socioeconomic and physical geographic factors posed an obvious influence on the transmission risk of leprosy. The persistence and regional fluctuations of leprosy incidence necessitate the ongoing dynamic and multilayered control strategies worldwide in combating this ancient disease.

Global, regional, and national incidence trends of depressive disorder, 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

BACKGROUND

Depressive disorder is a severe global public health problem. It is crucial to evaluate the global incidence trends of depressive disorder.

METHODS

The incidence data were drawn from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. Estimates were presented by global and sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles, and the age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate the incidence trends.

RESULTS

APC analysis indicated a decline in depressive disorder incidence globally (net drift = -0.24%, 95%CI: -0.29, -0.18), except for an increase in SDI regions (net drift = 0.07, 95%CI:0, 0.14). In high SDI regions, depressive disorder incidence increased among the younger and declined among the elder population, whereas the opposite trend was observed in middle and low-middle SDI regions. The depressive disorder incidence increased significantly among people aged 15 to 24 years after adjusting for age effects, decreased since 2000 after adjusting for period effects and increased rapidly in the birth cohort after 1990 in high SDI by adjusting for cohort effects.

CONCLUSION

Globally, there was a declining trend of depressive disorder incidence in 1990-2019. Specifically, the incidence was declining globally in younger populations, while increasing in older populations. However, this trend differed depending on the SDI of the region.

An exploratory analysis of the cost-effectiveness of insulin glargine 300 units/mL versus insulin glargine 100 units/mL over a lifetime horizon using the BRAVO diabetes model

BACKGROUND

This analysis assessed the cost-effectiveness of insulin glargine 300 units/mL (Gla-300) versus insulin glargine 100 units/mL (Gla-100) in insulin-naïve adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D) inadequately controlled with oral antidiabetic drugs (OADs).

METHODS

Costs and outcomes for Gla-300 versus Gla-100 from a US healthcare payer perspective were assessed using the BRAVO diabetes model. Baseline clinical data were derived from EDITION-3, a 12-month randomized controlled trial comparing Gla-300 with Gla-100 in insulin-naïve adults with inadequately controlled T2D on OADs. Treatment costs were calculated based on doses observed in EDITION-3 and 2020 US net prices, while costs for complications were based on published literature. Lifetime costs ($US) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were predicted and used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) estimates; extensive scenario and sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Lifetime medical costs were estimated to be $353,441 and $352,858 for individuals receiving Gla-300 and Gla-100 respectively; insulin costs were $52,613 and $50,818. Gla-300 was associated with a gain of 8.97 QALYs and 21.12 life-years, while Gla-100 was associated with a gain of 8.89 QALYs and 21.07 life-years. This resulted in an ICER of $7522/QALY gained for Gla-300 versus Gla-100. Thus, Gla-300 was cost-effective versus Gla-100 based on a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY. Compared with Gla-100, Gla-300 provided a net monetary benefit of $3290. Scenario and sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the base case.

CONCLUSION

Gla-300 may be a cost-effective treatment option versus Gla-100 over a lifetime horizon for insulin-naïve people in the United States with T2D inadequately controlled on OADs.

Burden of heart failure in Asia, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVES

Heart failure (HF) is on the rise as a global health problem, but information on its burden in Asia is limited. This study aimed to assess the burden, trends, and underlying causes of HF in the Asian region.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Data on HF in Asia from 1990 to 2019, including prevalence, years lived with disability (YLD), and underlying causes, were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases 2019. The cases, the age-standardized prevalence, and the YLD were compared between the age groups, the sexes, the sociodemographic index, and the locations. The proportion of age-standardized prevalence rates of HF attributable to 16 underlying causes was also analyzed.

RESULTS

In 2019, the age-standardized prevalence rate of HF per 100,000 persons in Asia was 722.45 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 591.97-891.64), with an estimated 31.89 million cases (95% UI: 25.94-39.25). From 1990 to 2019, the prevalence of age-standardized HF in Asia decreased by 4.51%, reflecting the global trend (-7.06%). Age-standardized YLD rates of HF exhibited patterns similar to prevalence rates. Among Asian countries, China had the highest age-standardized prevalence rate, followed by Kuwait and Jordan. Hypertensive heart disease was the leading cause of HF, followed by ischemic heart disease and rheumatic heart disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the burden of HF in Asia showed a gradual decline between 1990 and 2019, it remains a significant health challenge that requires increased attention. Regional disparities in HF burden are evident, emphasizing the need for urgent prevention and control measures at the regional and national levels.

The impact of willingness-to-pay threshold on price reduction recommendations for oncology drugs: a review of assessments conducted by the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health

Since late 2020, the Canadian Agency of Drugs and Technologies in Health (CADTH) has been using a threshold of $50,000 (CAD) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for both oncology and non-oncology drugs. When used for oncology products, this threshold is hypothesized to have a higher impact on the time to access these drugs in Canada. We studied the impact of price reductions on time to engagement and negotiation with the pan-Canadian Pharmaceutical Alliance for oncology drugs reviewed by CADTH between January 2020 and December 2022. Overall, 103 assessments reported data on price reductions recommended by CADTH to meet the cost-effectiveness threshold for reimbursement. Of these assessments, 57% (59/103) recommendations included a price reduction of greater than 70% off the list price. Eight percent (8/103) were not cost-effective even at a 100% price reduction. Of the 47 assessments that had a clear benefit, in 21 (45%) CADTH recommended a price reduction of at least 70%. The median time to price negotiation (not including time to engagement) for assessments that received at least 70% vs >70% price reduction was 2.6 vs 4.8 months. This study showed that there is a divergence between drug sponsor's incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and CADTH revised ICER leading to a price reduction to meet the $50,000/QALY threshold. For the submissions with clear clinical benefit the median length of engagement (2.5 vs 3.3 months) and median length of negotiation (3.1 vs 3.6 months) were slightly shorter compared with the submissions where uncertainties were noted in the clinical benefit according to CADTH. This study shows that using a $50,000 per QALY threshold for oncology products potentially impacts timely access to life saving medications.

Spatiotemporal trends in the burden of aortic aneurysms caused by high sodium intake from 1990 to 2019: A global, regional, and national analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

This study, drawing on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, examines spatiotemporal trends in mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) linked to aortic aneurysm (AA) from high sodium intake. The aim is a comprehensive analysis globally, regionally, and nationally spanning 1990 to 2019.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Quantifying AA deaths and DALYs due to high sodium intake, incorporating age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR), revealed a global surge. Deaths rose by 86.09 %, DALYs by 74.02 % from 1990 to 2019. EAPC for ASMR and ASDR displayed negative trends (-0.72 and -0.77). High/middle-high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions bore higher burdens than lower SDI regions. Males consistently had higher burdens across SDI regions, with both genders showing a slight downward trend. Age-wise, AA deaths and DALYs rose with age, followed by decline. A positive correlation existed between SDI and global burden, inversely related to EAPC for ASMR and ASDR.

CONCLUSION

AA burden from high sodium intake is pronounced in high SDI regions, necessitating targeted interventions. The global data highlights a significant increase in AA deaths and DALYs due to high sodium intake, urging prompt and effective control measures.

Burden and trend of dietary risk-related colorectal cancer in China and its provinces: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this experiment was to evaluate the spatial pattern and temporal trend of colorectal cancer (CRC) burden attributed to dietary risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

Numbers and age-standardised rates of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and corresponding average annual percentage change (AAPC) were determined. The joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess the temporal trends of CRC deaths and DALYs from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

In China, the number of diet-attributable CRC deaths and DALYs in 2019 were 90.41 (95% uncertainty interval: 65.69, 114.67) and 2234.06 (1609.96, 2831.24) per-1000 population, marking 2.05% and 1.68% annual increases since 1990, respectively. The region with the highest increase in age-standardised rates (ASRs) of diet-related CRC deaths and DALYs was in Taiwan with an AAPC of 2.00% (1.51, 2.48), whereas the highest decline in ASRs of CRC deaths and DALYs was observed in Hong Kong with an AAPC of -0.63% (-0.90, -0.35) (all P < 0.05). Nationally, men suffered higher CRC deaths and DALY burdens attributable to dietary risks than did women. Regarding the specific diet group, diets low in calcium, milk, and whole grains contributed to CRC deaths and DALYs the most.

CONCLUSIONS

Diet is an important contributor to increasing CRC burden in China. Necessary measures should be taken to kerb the growing burden attributed to dietary factors, particularly in males and in regions with middle Socio-demographic Index or lower.

Global Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease in Adolescents and Young Adults, 1990-2019

INTRODUCTION

Few studies have evaluated the global burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in adolescents and young adults (AYAs).

METHODS

Age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence (ASIR), mortality (ASMR) and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) (ASDR) were used to describe the burden of IHD in AYAs. Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs) of ASRs were used to describe the trend from 1990 to 2019. Risk factors were calculated by population attributable fractions (PAFs). Analyses were conducted in 2023.

RESULTS

In 2019, the ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR of IHD in AYAs were 26.81 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 20.36-34.54) per 100,000, 7.15 (95% UI: 6.56-7.87) per 100,000 and 409.51 (95% UI: 376.57-449.59) per 100,000. The ASIR and ASMR were higher among men than among women. From 1990 to 2019, the ASIR increased (EAPC=0.18%, 95% CI 0.14%-0.22%), while the ASMR (EAPC=-0.39%, -0.50% to -0.27%) and ASDR (EAPC=-0.40%, -0.52% to -0.29%) decreased. The largest increase in ASIR was observed in countries with a middle sociodemographic index (SDI) (EAPC=0.56%, 0.51%-0.60%). Globally, the proportional contribution of risk factors for DALY varied across regions, with the highest proportions of high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in high SDI regions (PAF=74.26%) and high-middle (PAF=71.30%) and the highest proportions of air pollution in low (PAF=41.79%) and low-middle SDI regions (PAF=40.90%).

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of IHD in AYAs remains high globally, and varies by age, sex, (male/female), region, and country. Targeted measures are needed to address the rising burden of IHD in AYAs, focusing on prevention, early diagnosis, and reduction in disparities.

Global, regional, and national burden of blindness and vision loss attributable to high fasting plasma glucose from 1990 to 2019, and forecasts to 2030: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

AIMS

To systematically clarify the spatiotemporal trends, and age-sex-specific blindness and vision loss (BVL) burden due to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) from 1990 to 2019, and project this burden over the next decade.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We obtained the number and rate of years lived with disability (YLDs) for the BVL burden attributable to HFPG by age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and location between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database. The average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were calculated to assess the temporal trends of HFPG-attributable BVL burden. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the HFPG-attributable BVL burden.

RESULTS

In 2019, the global number and age-standardized rate (ASR) for YLDs of BVL attributable to HFPG were 673.13 (95% UI: 159.52 to 1565.34) thousand and 8.44 (95% UI: 2.00 to 19.63) per 100,000 people, respectively. The highest burdens were found in Oceania, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, and the BVL burden due to HFPG was higher in the elderly and lower SDI regions. From 1990 to 2019, the global ASR of HFPG-attributable BVL gradually increased with AAPC (95% CI) being 0.80 (0.74 to 0.86). In addition, the HFPG-attributable BVL burden will slightly increase in the future decade.

CONCLUSIONS

The HFPG remains the important cause of BVL worldwide, placing a substantial disease burden. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized burden of BVL due to HFPG increased, and will consistently increase in the future decade, particularly in the elderly and in regions with middle SDI or below.

Cost-effectiveness of an in-development adult-formulated 21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in US adults aged 50 years or older

Indirect effects of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) have diminished the cost-effectiveness of current adult vaccine recommendations. An in-development adult-formulated 21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV21) may play a critical role in reducing pneumococcal illness by targeting a larger number of serotypes responsible for adult pneumococcal infections. This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of PCV21 in US adults aged 50 years or older compared with currently recommended pneumococcal vaccines, from both the societal and healthcare perspectives. A Markov model evaluated the lifetime cost-effectiveness of PCV21 (given at age 50 years only, at ages 50/65 years, and risk-based at ages < 65 years plus age-based at age 65 years) compared to no vaccination and to currently recommended pneumococcal vaccines given either as currently recommended or routinely at ages 50/65 years. The analysis was conducted in hypothetical Black and non-Black cohorts aged 50 years or older, with and without considering childhood pneumococcal vaccination indirect effects. Model parameters were based on US data. Parameter uncertainty was assessed using 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. From the societal perspective, PCV21 at ages 50/65 years compared to PCV21 at age 50 years cost $7,410 per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained in Black cohort analyses and $85,696/QALY gained in the non-Black cohort; PCV21 at ages 50/65 years had the most favorable public health outcomes. From the healthcare perspective, compared to no vaccination, PCV21 at age 50 years cost $46,213/QALY gained in the Black cohort and $86,629/QALY in non-Blacks. All other strategies were dominated in both cohorts and from both perspectives. When considering childhood pneumococcal vaccination indirect effects, costs of PCV21 at ages 50/65 years remained less than $140,000/QALY gained from the societal perspective in both populations. PCV21 is potentially cost-effective compared to currently approved pneumococcal vaccines in adults aged 50 years or older from both the societal and healthcare perspectives.

Global burden of osteoarthritis in adults aged 30 to 44 years, 1990 to 2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a common orthopedic disorder, and its incidence has been increasing among young adults in recent years. The purpose of this study is to investigate the global, regional, and national trends in OA burden and variation among individuals aged 30 to 44 from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Data on the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) related to OA were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 among individuals aged 30 to 44. These measures were stratified by gender, region, country, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Additionally, we analyzed YLDs attributable to risk factors.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were a total of 32,971,701 cases of OA among individuals aged 30 to 44 years worldwide, with an additional 7,794,008 new incident cases reported. OA of the knee was the primary contributor to both incidence and prevalence rates over the past three decades. From 1990 to 2019, both males and females in countries with high SDI and high-middle SDI showed upward trends in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and YLDs rates. In 2019, the United States of America had the highest age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and YLDs rates. Elevated body-mass index (BMI) was found to be the most prevalent risk factor for osteoarthritis-related YLDs. Age-standardized YLDs rates were positively associated with SDI.

CONCLUSIONS

OA remains a significant disease burden on individuals aged 30 to 44, with modifiable risk factors such as unhealthy lifestyle and obesity representing key targets for future interventions aimed at reducing the impact of this condition on younger generations.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of durvalumab, tremelimumab, and etoposide-platinum in first-line treatment of extensive-stage small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND

Durvalumab plus etoposide-platinum (DEP) showed sustained overall survival improvements in patients with extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) compared to etoposide-platinum (EP), but adding tremelimumab to DEP (DTEP) did not significantly improve outcomes. A third-party payer perspective is taken here to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of DTEP, DEP, and EP for ES-SCLC.

METHODS

The cost-effectiveness was evaluated by partitioning survival models into 3 mutually exclusive health states. In this model, clinical characteristics and outcomes were obtained from the CASPIAN. Model robustness was evaluated through 1-way deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Outcome measurements included costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, life-years, incremental net health benefit, and incremental net monetary benefit. The analysis was conducted with a 10-year lifetime horizon in a United States setting.

RESULTS

Compared with EP, DEP, and DTEP were associated with an increment of 0.480 and 0.313 life-years, and an increment of 0.247 and 0.165 QALYs, as well as a $139,788 and $170,331 increase in cost per patient. The corresponding ICERs were $565,807/QALY and $1033,456/QALY, respectively. The incremental net health benefit and incremental net monetary benefit of DEP or DTEP were -0.685 QALYs and -$102,729, or -0.971 QALYs and -$145,608 at a willingness to pay threshold of $150,000/QALY, respectively. Compared with DTEP, DEP was dominated. DTEP and DEP were 100% unlikely to be cost-effective if the willingness to pay threshold was $150,000/QALY. DEP was cost-effective compared to EP when durvalumab was priced below $0.994/mg. Compared with EP, DEP, and DTEP were unlikely to be considered cost-effective across all subgroups.

CONCLUSION

DEP and DTEP were not cost-effective options in the first-line treatment for ES-SCLC compared with EP, from the third-party payer perspective in the United States. Compared with DTEP, DEP was dominated.

Two-year follow-up of a clustered randomised controlled trial of a multicomponent general practice intervention for people at risk of poor health outcomes

BACKGROUND

This study was a two-year follow-up evaluation of health service use and the cost-effectiveness of a multicomponent general practice intervention targeted at people at high risk of poor health outcomes.

METHODS

A two-year follow-up study of a clustered randomised controlled trial was conducted in South Australia during 2018-19, recruiting 1044 patients from three cohorts: children; adults (aged 18-64 years with two or more chronic diseases); and older adults (aged ≥ 65 years). Intervention group practices (n = 10) provided a multicomponent general practice intervention for 12 months. The intervention comprised patient enrolment to a preferred general practitioner (GP), access to longer GP appointments and timely general practice follow-up after episodes of hospital care. Health service outcomes included hospital use, specialist services and pharmaceuticals. The economic evaluation was based on quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) calculated from EuroQoL 5 dimensions, 5 level utility scores and used an A$50,000 per QALY gained threshold for determining cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

Over the two years, there were no statistically significant intervention effects for health service use. In the total sample, the mean total cost per patient was greater for the intervention than control group, but the number of QALYs gained in the intervention group was higher. The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was A$18,211 per QALY gained, which is lower than the A$50,000 per QALY gained threshold used in Australia. However, the intervention's cost-effectiveness was shown to differ by cohort. For the adult cohort, the intervention was associated with higher costs and lower QALYs gained (vs the total cohort) and was not cost-effective. For the older adults cohort, the intervention was associated with lower costs (A$540 per patient), due primarily to lower hospital costs, and was more effective than usual care.

CONCLUSIONS

The positive cost-effectiveness results from the 24-month follow-up warrant replication in a study appropriately powered for outcomes such as hospital use, with an intervention period of at least two years, and targeted to older people at high risk of poor health outcomes.

Rising trend and regional disparities of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient low temperature, 1990-2019: An analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

Background

Previous studies on the effect of global warming on the global burden of disease have mainly focussed on the impact of high temperatures, thereby providing limited evidence of the effect of lower temperatures.

Methods

We adopted a three-stage analysis approach using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. First, we explored the global burden of disease attributable to low temperatures, examining variations by gender, age, cause, region, and country. Second, we analysed temporal trends in low-temperature-related disease burdens from 1990 to 2019 by meta-regression. Finally, we fitted a mixed-effects meta-regression model to explore the effect modification of country-level characteristics.

Results

In 2019, low temperatures were responsible for 2.92% of global deaths and 1.03% of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), corresponding to a death rate of 21.36 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 18.26, 24.73) and a DALY rate of 335 (95% UI = 280, 399) per 100 000 population. Most of the deaths (85.12%) and DALYs (94.38%) attributable to low temperatures were associated with ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In the last three decades, we observed an upward trend for the annual number of attributable deaths (P < 0.001) and a downward trend for the rates of death (P < 0.001) and DALYs (P < 0.001). The disease burden associated with low temperatures varied considerably among regions and countries, with higher burdens observed in regions with middle or high-middle socio-demographic indices, as well as countries with higher gross domestic product per capita and a larger proportion of ageing population.

Conclusions

Our findings emphasise the significance of raising public awareness and prioritising policies to protect global population health from the adverse effects of low temperatures, even in the face of global warming. Particular efforts should be targeted towards individuals with underlying diseases (e.g. cardiovascular diseases) and vulnerable countries or regions (e.g. Central Asia and central Europe).

Epidemiological study of pediatric nutritional deficiencies: an analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

Nutritional deficiencies (ND) continue to threaten the lives of millions of people around the world, with children being the worst hit. Nevertheless, no systematic study of the epidemiological features of child ND has been conducted so far. Therefore, we aimed to comprehensively assess the burden of pediatric ND.

METHODS

We analyzed data on pediatric ND between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels. In addition, joinpoint regression models were used to assess temporal trends.

RESULTS

In 2019, the number of prevalent cases of childhood malnutrition increased to 435,071,628 globally. The global age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates showed an increasing trend between 1990 and 2019. Meanwhile, the burden of child malnutrition was negatively correlated with sociodemographic index (SDI). Asia and Africa still carried the heaviest burden. The burden and trends of child malnutrition varied considerably across countries and regions. At the age level, we found that malnutrition was significantly more prevalent among children < 5 years of age.

CONCLUSION

Pediatric ND remains a major public health challenge, especially in areas with low SDI. Therefore, primary healthcare services in developing countries should be improved, and effective measures, such as enhanced pre-school education, strengthened nutritional support, and early and aggressive treatment, need to be developed.

Implementation of an audit and feedback module targeting low-value clinical practices in a provincial trauma quality assurance program: a cost-effectiveness study

BACKGROUND

Audit and Feedback (A&F) interventions based on quality indicators have been shown to lead to significant improvements in compliance with evidence-based care including de-adoption of low-value practices (LVPs). Our primary aim was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding a hypothetical A&F module targeting LVPs for trauma admissions to an existing quality assurance intervention targeting high-value care and risk-adjusted outcomes. A secondary aim was to assess how certain A&F characteristics might influence its cost-effectiveness.

METHODS

We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis using a probabilistic static decision analytic model in the Québec trauma care continuum. We considered the Québec Ministry of Health perspective. Our economic evaluation compared a hypothetical scenario in which the A&F module targeting LVPs is implemented in a Canadian provincial trauma quality assurance program to a status quo scenario in which the A&F module is not implemented. In scenarios analyses we assessed the impact of A&F characteristics on its cost-effectiveness. Results are presented in terms of incremental costs per LVP avoided.

RESULTS

Results suggest that the implementation of A&F module (Cost = $1,480,850; Number of LVPs = 6,005) is associated with higher costs and higher effectiveness compared to status quo (Cost = $1,124,661; Number of LVPs = 8,228). The A&F module would cost $160 per LVP avoided compared to status quo. The A&F module becomes more cost-effective with the addition of facilitation visits; more frequent evaluation; and when only high-volume trauma centers are considered.

CONCLUSION

A&F module targeting LVPs is associated with higher costs and higher effectiveness than status quo and has the potential to be cost-effective if the decision-makers' willingness-to-pay is at least $160 per LVP avoided. This likely represents an underestimate of true ICER due to underestimated costs or missed opportunity costs. Results suggest that virtual facilitation visits, frequent evaluation, and implementing the module in high-volume centers can improve cost-effectiveness.

Analysis and prediction of central nervous system tumor burden in China during 1990-2030

Central nervous system (CNS) tumors, due to their unique locations, pose a serious threat to human health and present challenges to modern medicine. These tumors exhibit notable epidemiological characteristics across various ethnicities, regions, and age groups. This study investigated the trend of disease burden of CNS tumors in China from 1990-2019 and predicted the incidence and death rate from 2020-2030. Employing data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, we utilized key indicators to scrutinize the disease burden associated with CNS tumors in China. The analysis employed the Joinpoint model to track the trend in disease burden, calculating both the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). Additionally, the Matlab software facilitated the creation of a gray model to forecast the incidence and death rate of CNS tumors in China spanning from 2020 to 2030." In 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate, prevalence rate, death rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with CNS tumors in China were among the high level in the world. The standardized prevalence rate and DALYs of CNS tumors in China residents showed a stable fluctuation trend with age; however, age-standardized death and incidence rate demonstrated a generally upward trend with age. In China, the age-standardized prevalence and incidence rate of males were lower than those for female residents, while the age-standardized death rate and DALYs among males surpassed those of females. From 1990-2019, the age-standardized prevalence and incidence rate of CNS tumors in China exhibited an increasing trend. The age-standardized death rate and DALYs showed a contrasting trend. According to the gray model's prediction, incidence rate of CNS tumors would continue rising while the death rate is expected to decline in China from 2020-2023. The burden of CNS tumors in China has shown an upward trajectory, posing significant challenges to their treatment. It is necessary to pay attention to tertiary prevention, start from the perspective of high-risk groups and high-risk factors to reduce the burden of disease, and achieve "early detection, early diagnosis, and early treatment".

Health state utility estimates for value assessments of novel treatments in Huntington's disease: a systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

Huntington's disease (HD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease with a devastating impact on patients and their families. Quantifying how treatments affect patient outcomes is critical for informing reimbursement decisions. Many countries mandate a formal value assessment in which the treatment benefit is measured as quality-adjusted life-years, calculated with the use of utility estimates that reflect respondents' preferences for health states.

OBJECTIVE

To summarize published health state utility data in HD and identify gaps and uncertainties in the data available that could be used to inform value assessments.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature review of studies that used preference-based instruments (e.g., EQ-5D and SF-6D) to estimate utility values for people with HD. The studies were published between January 2012 and December 2022.

RESULTS

Of 383 articles screened, 16 articles reported utility values estimated in 11 distinct studies. The utility measure most frequently reported was EQ-5D (9/11 studies). Two studies reported SF-6D data; one used time trade-off methods to value health state descriptions (vignettes). Although utility scores generally worsened to a lower value with increased HD severity, the estimates varied considerably across studies. The EQ-5D index range was 0.89 - 0.72 for mild/prodromal HD and 0.71 - 0.37 for severe/late-stage disease.

CONCLUSIONS

This study uncovered high variability in published utility estimates, indicating substantial uncertainty in existing data. Further research is needed to better understand preferences and valuation across all stages and domains of HD symptoms and the degree to which generic utility measures capture the impact of cognitive changes on quality of life.

Global burden of rheumatoid arthritis among adolescents and young adults aged 10-24 years: A trend analysis study from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

In recent decades, there has been a global increase in the burden of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) among adolescents and young adults (AYAs), making it a significant public health issue. However, our understanding of the disease burden, harm, and influencing factors of RA in this population remains insufficient. This study aimed to assess the trends in RA burden among AYAs aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels.

METHODS

Incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate per 100,000 population, as well as average annual percentage changes (AAPCs), of RA among individuals aged 10-24 years were reported globally, regionally, and nationally based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019). These global trends were further analyzed by age, sex, and Sociodemographic index (SDI). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to determine the year in which the most significant changes in global trends occurred.

RESULTS

Globally, the incidence of RA among AYAs increased from 4.98 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 5.41 per 100,000 population in 2019, with an AAPCs of 0.29 (95%CI: 0.26, 0.32, p < 0.001). The most significant increase occurred in 2000, while the most significant decrease occurred in 2014. The prevalence increased from 34.11 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 36.34 per 100,000 population in 2019, with an AAPCs of 0.22 (95%CI: 0.19, 0.24, p<0.001); The most significant increase was observed in 2000, and the most significant decrease occurred in 2014. DALYs rate with RA were 5.96 per 100,000 population in 1990 and 5.79 per 100,000 population in 2019 for AYAs, with an average decrease of 0.1 years per year (AAPCs = -0.1, 95%CI: -0.2, -0.01, p = 0.04). In terms of gender, the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rate were higher for females compared to males during the same period. Regarding age, the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rate increased with increasing age. Based on the SDI quintile, the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rate of RA were highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI from 1990 to 2019. However, the relationship between incidence and SDI is non-linear. In terms of regions, Tropical Latin America exhibited the highest incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rate, while Andean Latin America experienced the most rapid increase in incidence and prevalence. Southern Latin America saw the fastest growth in DALYs rate, whereas Southern Sub-Saharan Africa witnessed the most significant decline.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the study revealed an overall increase in the incidence and prevalence of RA among adolescents and young adults (AYAs) over the past three decades, while DALYs rate remained relatively stable. Furthermore, the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rate of RA were found to increase with age. Fortunately, recent proactive preventive measures and treatment methods have shown promising results. Moving forward, it is crucial to prioritize the female population and AYAs patients in order to further alleviate the global burden of RA.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Multicomponent Primary Care Intervention for Hypertension

BACKGROUND

The SingHypertension primary care clinic intervention, which consisted of clinician training in hypertension management, subsidized single-pill combination medications, nurse-delivered motivational conversations and telephone follow-ups, improved blood pressure control and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores relative to usual care among patients with uncontrolled hypertension in Singapore. This study quantified the incremental cost-effectiveness, in terms of incremental cost per unit reduction disability-adjusted life years, of SingHypertension relative to usual care for patients with hypertension from the health system perspective.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We developed a Markov model to simulate CVD events and associated outcomes for a hypothetical cohort of patients over a 10-year period. Costs were measured in US dollars, and effectiveness was measured in disability-adjusted life years averted. We present base-case results and conducted deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Based on a willingness-to-pay threshold of US $55 500 per DALY averted, SingHypertension was cost-effective for patients with hypertension (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: US $24 765 per disability-adjusted life year averted) relative to usual care. This result held even if risk reduction was assumed to decline linearly to 0 over 10 years but not sooner than 7 years. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were most sensitive to the magnitude of the reduction in CVD risk; at least a 0.13% to 0.16% point reduction in 10-year CVD risk is required for cost-effectiveness. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicates that SingHypertension has a 78% chance of being cost-effective at the willingness-to-pay threshold.

CONCLUSIONS

SingHypertension represents good value for the money for reducing CVD incidence, morbidity, and mortality and should be considered for wide-scale implementation in Singapore and possibly other countries.

REGISTRATION INFORMATION

REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02972619.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Workplace-Based Hypertension Management Program in Real-World Practice in the Kailuan Study

BACKGROUND

In 2009, a workplace-based hypertension management program was launched among men with hypertension in the Kailuan study. This program involved monitoring blood pressure semimonthly, providing free antihypertensive medications, and offering personalized health consultations. However, the cost-effectiveness of this program remains unclear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This analysis included 12 240 participants, with 6120 in each of the management and control groups. Using a microsimulation model derived from 10-year follow-up data, we estimated costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), life-years, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for workplace-based management compared with routine care in both the study period and over a lifetime. Analyses are conducted from the societal perspective. Over the 10-year follow-up, patients in the management group experienced an average gain of 0.06 QALYs with associated incremental costs of $633.17 (4366.85 RMB). Projecting over a lifetime, the management group was estimated to increase by 0.88 QALYs or 0.92 life-years compared with the control group, with an incremental cost of $1638.64 (11 301.37 RMB). This results in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $1855.47 per QALY gained and $1780.27 per life-year gained, respectively, when comparing workplace-based management with routine care. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, with a threshold willingness-to-pay of $30 765 per QALY (3 times 2019 gross domestic product per capita), the management group showed a 100% likelihood of being cost-effective in 10 000 samples.

CONCLUSIONS

Workplace-based management, compared with routine care for Chinese men with hypertension, could be cost-effective both during the study period and over a lifetime, and might be considered in working populations in China and elsewhere.

Correlation between socioeconomic indices and epidemiological indices of thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2019 year: a global ecologic study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of thyroid cancer as the most common type of endocrine gland malignancy has risen more significantly than any malignancies in recent years. Estimated new cases of thyroid cancer in the United States in 2024 were 12,500 and 31,520 for men and women, respectively, and estimated deaths were 1,180 for women and 990 for men. Indices of socio-economic have been commonly used to measure the development of countries. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the correlation between indices of socioeconomic status and epidemiological indices of thyroid cancer throughout the world. In addition, this study has compared two indices of human development and a socio-demographic index.

METHOD

This worldwide ecological study used data on thyroid cancer incidence, mortality, human development index (HDI), and sociodemographic index (SDI) between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). We evaluated the correlation between incidence and mortality rates with socioeconomic indices by using Pearson's correlation coefficient. Furthermore, for the first time, the generalized additive model (GAM) was employed for modeling. The statistical software R, version 4.2.2, was used to conduct all statistical analyses.

RESULTS

The correlation between the incidence of thyroid cancer and the HDI was significant and positive (r = 0.47, p-value < 0.001). While the correlation between thyroid cancer mortality and HDI was not statistically significant (r = 0.01, p-value = 0.076). Besides, the incidence of thyroid cancer was significantly positively correlated with SDI (r = 0.48, p-value < 0.001). The multiple GAM showed that for one unit increase in HDI, the risk of thyroid cancer was increased by 2.1 times (RR = 2.1, 95%CI = 2.04 to 2.19), and for one unit increase in SDI, the risk of thyroid cancer was shown to increase by 2.2 times. (RR = 2.2, 95%CI = 2.19 to 2.35).

CONCLUSION

It has been evident that countries with higher incidence of thyroid cancer display higher socioeconomic indices. While, countries with higher socioeconomic indices, report lower mortality rates. However, based on the modeling results, it can be concluded that the SDI is slightly more useful in this regard. Therefore, examining the epidemiological indices of thyroid cancer by socio-economic indices can be useful to reflect a clear image of the distribution of this cancer in each country, and can be used for planning cancer prevention strategies.

Unveiling the lead exposure attributed burden in Iran from 1990 to 2019 through the lens of the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

This study aimed to investigate the estimated burden attributed to lead exposure (LE), at the national and subnational levels from 1990 to 2019 in Iran. The burden attributed to LE was determined through the estimation of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) using the comparative risk assessment method of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study presenting as age-standardized per 100,000 person year (PY) with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UI). Furthermore, the burden of each disease were recorded independently. Eventually, the age-standardized YLLs, DALYs, deaths and YLDs rates attributed to LE demonstrated a decrease of 50.7%, 48.9%, 38.0%, and 36.4%, respectively, from 1990 to 2019. The most important causes of LE burden are divided into two acute and chronic categories: acute, mainly causes mental disorders (DALYs rate of 36.0 in 2019), and chronic, results in cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) (DALYs rate of 391.8) and chronic kidney diseases (CKDs) (DALYs rate of 26.6), with CVDs bearing the most significant burden. At the sub-national level, a decrease in burden was evident in most provinces; moreover, low and low-middle SDI provinces born the highest burden. The burden increased mainly by ageing and was higher in males than females. It was concluded that although the overall decrease in the burden; still it is high, especially in low and low-middle SDI provinces, in advanced ages and in males. Among IDID, CKDs and CVDs that are the most important causes of LE-attributed burden in Iran; CVDs bear the highest burden.

Exploring the cost-effectiveness of EBV vaccination to prevent multiple sclerosis in an Australian setting

BACKGROUND

Increasing evidence suggests the potential of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) vaccination in preventing multiple sclerosis (MS). We aimed to explore the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical EBV vaccination to prevent MS in an Australian setting.

METHODS

A five-state Markov model was developed to simulate the incidence and subsequent progression of MS in a general Australian population. The model inputs were derived from published Australian sources. Hypothetical vaccination costs, efficacy and strategies were derived from literature. Total lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated for two hypothetical prevention strategies versus no prevention from the societal and health system payer perspectives. Costs and QALYs were discounted at 5% annually. One-way, two-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

From societal perspective, EBV vaccination targeted at aged 0 and aged 12 both dominated no prevention (ie, cost saving and increasing QALYs). However, vaccinating at age 12 was more cost-effective (total lifetime costs reduced by $A452/person, QALYs gained=0.007, ICER=-$A64 571/QALY gained) than vaccinating at age 0 (total lifetime costs reduced by $A40/person, QALYs gained=0.003, ICER=-$A13 333/QALY gained). The probabilities of being cost-effective under $A50 000/QALY gained threshold for vaccinating at ages 0 and 12 were 66% and 90%, respectively. From health system payer perspective, the EBV vaccination was cost-effective at age 12 only. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of EBV vaccination to prevent MS under a wide range of plausible scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

MS prevention using future EBV vaccinations, particularly targeted at adolescence population, is highly likely to be cost-effective.

Global, regional, and national burden of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for facial fractures from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

Facial fractures are common injuries causing cosmetic, functional, and psychological damage. The purpose of this study was to assess the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of facial fractures from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD).

METHODS

Detailed data for the disease burden of facial fractures were obtained from online available public data (Global Health Data Exchange) derived from the GBD study. The incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of facial fractures from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed by country, region, age, gender, sociodemographic index (SDI), and cause. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized YLDs rate (ASYR), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated to evaluate the disease burden and quantify the trends over time. The main causes of facial fractures in different years and ages were assessed.

RESULTS

Globally, there were 8.9 million incident cases, 1.5 million cases prevalent cases, and 98.1 thousand years YLDs in 2019. Compared with 1990, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, and YLDs increased, while ASIR (EAPC, - 0.47; 95% uncertainty interval [UI], - 0.57 to - 0.37), ASPR (EAPC, - 0.39; 95% UI, - 0.46 to - 0.31), ASYR (EAPC, - 0.39; 95% UI, - 0.47 to - 0.32) showed a downward trend. The high SDI region held the highest ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR both in 1990 and 2019, such as New Zealand, Slovenia, and Australia. The burden was higher in men than in women from 1990 to 2019, while the ASRs in women exceeded that of men in the elderly. The ASIR peaked in the young adult group, however, the ASPR and ASYR increased with age. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of facial fractures.

CONCLUSIONS

Facial fractures continue to cause a heavy burden on public health worldwide. More targeted strategies need to be established to control the burden of facial fractures.

Global, regional and national epidemiology of allergic disorders in children from 1990 to 2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

OBJECTIVE

This modelling study aimed to estimate the burden for allergic diseases in children during a period of 30 years.

DESIGN

Population-based observational study.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The data on the incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for childhood allergic diseases, such as atopic dermatitis (AD) and asthma, were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 online database. This data set spans various groups, including different regions, ages, genders and Socio-Demographic Indices (SDI), covering the period from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were approximately 81 million children with asthma and 5.6 million children with AD worldwide. The global incidence of asthma in children was 20 million. Age-standardised incidence rates showed a decrease of 4.17% for asthma, from 1075.14 (95% uncertainty intervals (UI), 724.63 to 1504.93) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 1030.33 (95% UI, 683.66 to 1449.53) in 2019. Similarly, the rates for AD decreased by 5.46%, from 594.05 (95% UI, 547.98 to 642.88) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 561.61 (95% UI, 519.03 to 608.29) in 2019. The incidence of both asthma and AD was highest in children under 5 years of age, gradually decreasing with age. Interestingly, an increase in SDI was associated with a rise in the incidence of both conditions. However, the mortality rate and DALYs for asthma showed a contrasting trend.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the past three decades, there has been a worldwide increase in new asthma and AD cases, even though mortality rates have significantly declined. However, the prevalence of these allergic diseases among children varies considerably across regions, countries and age groups. This variation highlights the need for precise prevalence assessments. These assessments are vital in formulating effective strategies for prevention and treatment.

Assessing and projecting the global burden of thyroid cancer, 1990-2030: Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study

Background

This study aims to assess the global incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of thyroid cancer between 1990 and 2030.

Methods

Our study analysed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data from 204 countries, spanning 1990-2019. It focused on age-standardised thyroid cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), using the sociodemographic index (SDI) for assessing socioeconomic levels. Generalised additive models (GAMs) projected thyroid cancer trends for 2020-2030.

Results

The global burden of thyroid cancer is predicted to increase significantly from 1990 to 2030. The number of thyroid cancer incidence cases is projected to rise from 233 846.64 in 2019 to 305 078.08 by 2030, representing an approximate 30.46% increase. The ASIR (age-standardised incidence rate) is expected to continue its upward trend (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = 0.83). The age-standardised death rate (ASDR) for thyroid cancer is projected to decline in both genders, more notably in women (EAPC = -0.34) compared to men (EAPC = -0.17). The burden of disease escalates with advancing age, with significant regional disparities. Regions with lower SDI, particularly in South Asia, are anticipated to witness substantial increases in thyroid cancer incidence from 2020 to 2030. The overall disease burden is expected to rise, especially in countries with low to middle SDI, reflecting broader socio-economic and health care shifts.

Conclusions

This study highlights significant regional and gender-specific variations in thyroid cancer, with notable increases in incidence rates, particularly in areas like South Asia. These trends suggest improvements in diagnostic capabilities and the influence of socio-economic factors. Additionally, the observed decline in mortality rates across various regions reflects advancements in thyroid cancer management. The findings underline the critical importance of regionally tailored prevention strategies, robust cancer registries, and public health initiatives to address the evolving landscape of thyroid cancer and mitigate health disparities globally.

Cost-effectiveness of behavioural counselling intervention compared with non-intervention for adult patients with metabolic syndrome to prevent cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes in Japan: a microsimulation modelling study

OBJECTIVES

Nationwide lifestyle intervention-specific health guidance (SHG) in Japan-employs counselling and education to change unhealthy behaviours that contribute to metabolic syndrome, especially obesity or abdominal obesity. We aimed to perform a model-based economic evaluation of SHG in a low participation rate setting.

DESIGN

A hypothetical population, comprised 50 000 Japanese aged 40 years who met the criteria of the SHG, used a microsimulation using the Markov model to evaluate SHG's cost-effectiveness compared with non-SHG. This hypothetical population was simulated over a 35-year time horizon.

SETTING

SHG is conducted annually by all Japanese insurers.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Model parameters, such as costs and health outcomes (including quality-adjusted life-years, QALYs), were based on existing literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated from the healthcare payer's perspective. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were conducted to evaluate the uncertainty around the model input parameters.

RESULTS

The simulation revealed that the total costs per person in the SHG group decreased by JPY53 014 (US$480) compared with that in the non-SHG group, and the QALYs increased by 0.044, wherein SHG was considered the dominant strategy despite the low participation rates. PSA indicated that the credibility intervals (2.5th-97.5th percentile) of the incremental costs and the incremental QALYs with the SHG group compared with the non-SHG group were -JPY687 376 to JPY85 197 (-US$6226 to US$772) and -0.009 to 0.350 QALYs, respectively. Each scenario analysis indicated that programmes for improving both blood pressure and blood glucose levels among other risk factors for metabolic syndrome are essential for improving cost-effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that even small effects of counselling and education on behavioural modification may lead to the prevention of acute life-threatening events and chronic diseases, in addition to the reduction of medication resulting from metabolic syndrome, which results in cost savings.

Ambient PM2.5 and productivity-adjusted life years lost in Brazil: a national population-based study

Enormous health burden has been associated with air pollution and its effects continue to grow. However, the impact of air pollution on labour productivity at the population level is still unknown. This study assessed the association between premature death due to PM2.5 exposure and the loss of productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs), in Brazil. We applied a novel variant of the difference-in-difference (DID) approach to assess the association. Daily all-cause mortality data in Brazil were collected from 2000-2019. The PALYs lost increased by 5.11% (95% CI: 4.10-6.13%), for every 10 µg/m3 increase in the 2-day moving average of PM2.5. A total of 9,219,995 (95% CI: 7,491,634-10,921,141) PALYs lost and US$ 268.05 (95% CI: 217.82-317.50) billion economic costs were attributed to PM2.5 exposure, corresponding to 7.37% (95% CI: 5.99-8.73%) of the total PALYs lost due to premature death. This study also found that 5,005,306 PALYs could be avoided if the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guideline (AQG) level was met. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that ambient PM2.5 exposure is associated with a considerable labour productivity burden relating to premature death in Brazil, while over half of the burden could be prevented if the WHO AQG was met. The findings highlight the need to reduce ambient PM2.5 levels and provide strong evidence for the development of strategies to mitigate the economic impacts of air pollution.

The epidemiology of pregnancy loss: global burden, variable risk factors, and predictions

STUDY QUESTION

Is the incidence of pregnancy loss correlated with various geographic, socio-demographic, and age stratifications at the societal and national levels, and what are the risk factors associated with pregnancy loss at the individual level?

SUMMARY ANSWER

The epidemiological trends and disease burden of pregnancy loss were correlated with various geographic, socio-demographic, and age stratifications, and we identified that poor health condition, smoking, sedentary behaviour, lower educational level, and lower maternal birth weight may significantly increase the risk of pregnancy loss.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Several studies have used national, regional, or single-centre data to describe trends in the burden of pregnancy loss, and previous observational studies have identified some variable factors possibly associated with pregnancy loss. However, a comprehensive analysis of global trends and predictions of pregnancy loss are lacking, and the conclusions have been inconsistent.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We have utilized the data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 to provide an overview of the trends in pregnancy loss in 204 countries and regions worldwide from 1990 to 2019, and have made a forecast for the next 10 years. Moreover, we applied a variety of statistical genetics methods to analyse 34 239 pregnancy loss and 89 340 non-pregnancy loss cases from the FinnGen consortium to comprehensively assess the bidirectional causality of variable factors with pregnancy loss from an individual perspective.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

We analysed trends in the incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and maternal mortality of pregnancy loss at global, regional, national, socio-demographic index (SDI), and age levels. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict trends by 2030. Finally, we used two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) and multivariate MR (MVMR) analyses to explore the relationship between the pregnancy loss and variables closely related to physical condition, physical activity, lifestyle, sleep conditions, basic conditions.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

In 2019, there were approximately 42.39 million cases of pregnancy loss worldwide. Globally, the incidence, DALYs, and mortality of pregnancy loss showed a decreasing trend between 1990 and 2019, although the number was increasing in some countries. The age-standardized incidence, DALYs, and mortality rate were negatively correlated with SDI level and show a further decline by 2030. Based on MR analyses, we confirmed that genetically predicted overall health rating (inverse-variance weighted (IVW) odds ratio (OR), 1.68; 95% CI, 1.34-2.13; P = 5.10 × 10-6), smoking initiation (IVW OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.16-1.38; P = 1.90 × 10-9), sedentary behaviour (IVW OR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.20-2.01; P = 2.76 × 10-5), educational level (IVW OR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.55-0.73; P = 6.56 × 10-10), and maternal birth weight (IVW OR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.58-0.85; P = 2.98 × 10-4) were significantly related to the risk of pregnancy loss, whereas body mass index (IVW OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.03-1.17; P = 5.31 × 10-3), alcohol consumption (IVW OR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.03-2.95; P = 0.04), insomnia (IVW OR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.14-2.42; P = 7.00 × 10-3), and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (IVW OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.37-0.95; P = 2.85 × 10-2) were suggestively associated with the risk of pregnancy loss. These results were supported by sensitivity and directional analyses.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Despite efforts to standardize GBD data from all over the world, uncertainties in data quality control regarding ascertainment of pregnancy loss, medical care accessibility, cultural differences, and socioeconomic status still exist. Furthermore, the population in the MRstudy was limited to Europeans, which means that the results may not be extrapolated to people of other origins.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Our study provides for the first time an overview of the epidemiological trends and disease burden of pregnancy loss related with SDI, region, country, and age, and predicts changes in future trends up to 2030. In addition, findings support that genetic susceptibility, smoking, health condition, and sedentary behaviour may be powerful indicators of an increased risk of pregnancy loss. These results would be beneficial for policy makers of different countries and regions to improve prevention implementation.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

This work was supported by grants 2021JH2/10300093, from the Science and Technology Projects of Liaoning Province, China. All authors declare no conflicts of interest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Global health inequality: analyses of life disparity and healthy life disparity

BACKGROUND

Alongside average health measures, namely, life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HLE), we sought to investigate the inequality in lifespan and healthy lifespan at the worldwide level with an alternative indicator.

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, we evaluated the global distribution of life disparity (LD) and healthy life disparity (HLD) for 204 countries and territories in 2019 by sex and socio-demographic index (SDI), and also explored the relationships between average and variation health indicators.

RESULTS

Substantial gaps in all observed health indicators were found across SDI quintiles. For instance, in 2019, for low SDI, female LE and HLE were 67.3 years (95% confidence interval 66.8, 67.6) and 57.4 years (56.6, 57.9), and their LD and HLD were 16.7 years (16.5, 17.0) and 14.4 years (14.1, 14.7). For high SDI, female LE and HLE were greater [83.7 years (83.6, 83.7) and 70.2 years (69.3, 70.7)], but their LD and HLD were smaller [10.4 years (10.3, 10.4) and 7.9 years (7.7, 8.0)]. Besides, all estimates varied across populations within each SDI quintile. There were also gaps in LD and HLD between males and females, as those found in LE and HLE.

CONCLUSION

In addition to the disadvantaged LE and HLE, greater LD and HLD were also found in low SDI countries and territories. This reveals the serious challenge in achieving global health equality. Targeted policies are thus necessary for improving health performance among these populations.

Transnational inequities in cardiovascular diseases from 1990 to 2019: exploration based on the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

To describe the burden and examine transnational inequities in overall cardiovascular disease (CVD) and ten specific CVDs across different levels of societal development.

Methods

Estimates of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for each disease and their 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD). Inequalities in the distribution of CVD burdens were quantified using two standard metrics recommended absolute and relative inequalities by the World Health Organization (WHO), including the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and the relative concentration Index.

Results

Between 1990 and 2019, for overall CVD, the Slope Index of Inequality changed from 3760.40 (95% CI: 3758.26 to 3756.53) in 1990 to 3400.38 (95% CI: 3398.64 to 3402.13) in 2019. For ischemic heart disease, it shifted from 2833.18 (95% CI: 2831.67 to 2834.69) in 1990 to 1560.28 (95% CI: 1559.07 to 1561.48) in 2019. Regarding hypertensive heart disease, the figures changed from-82.07 (95% CI: -82.56 to-81.59) in 1990 to 108.99 (95% CI: 108.57 to 109.40) in 2019. Regarding cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, the data evolved from 273.05 (95% CI: 272.62 to 273.47) in 1990 to 250.76 (95% CI: 250.42 to 251.09) in 2019. Concerning aortic aneurysm, the index transitioned from 104.91 (95% CI: 104.65 to 105.17) in 1990 to 91.14 (95% CI: 90.94 to 91.35) in 2019. Pertaining to endocarditis, the figures shifted from-4.50 (95% CI: -4.64 to-4.36) in 1990 to 16.00 (95% CI: 15.88 to 16.12) in 2019. As for rheumatic heart disease, the data transitioned from-345.95 (95% CI: -346.47 to-345.42) in 1990 to-204.34 (95% CI: -204.67 to-204.01) in 2019. Moreover, the relative concentration Index for overall CVD and each specific type also varied from 1990 to 2019.

Conclusion

There's significant heterogeneity in transnational health inequality for ten specific CVDs. Countries with higher levels of societal development may bear a relatively higher CVD burden except for rheumatic heart disease, with the extent of inequality changing over time.

Public health relevance of medicines developed under paediatric legislation in Europe and the USA: a systematic mapping study

BACKGROUND

Legislation in the European Union (EU) and the USA promoting the development of paediatric medicines has contributed to new treatments for children. This study explores how such legislation responds to paediatric health needs in different country settings and globally, and whether it should be considered for wider implementation.

METHODS

We searched EU and US regulatory databases for medicines with approved indications resulting from completed paediatric development between 2007 and 2018. Of 195 medicines identified, 187 could be systematically mapped to the burden of the target disease for six study countries (Australia, Brazil, Canada, Kenya, Russia, South Africa) and globally, using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). All medicines were also screened for inclusion on the WHO Model List of Essential Medicines (EML) and the EML for children under 13 years (EMLc).

RESULTS

The studied medicines were disproportionately focused on non-communicable diseases, which represented 68% of medicines and 21% of global paediatric DALYs. On the other hand, we found 28% of medicines for communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional disorders, representing 73% of global paediatric DALYs. Neonatal disorders and malaria were mapped with two medicines, tuberculosis and neglected tropical diseases with none. The gap between medicines and paediatric DALYs was greater in countries with lower income. Still, 34% of medicines are included in the EMLc and 48% in the EML.

CONCLUSIONS

Paediatric policies in the EU and the USA are only partially responsive to paediatric health needs. To be considered for wider implementation, paediatric incentives and obligations should be more targeted towards paediatric health needs. International harmonisation of legislation and alignment with global research priorities could further strengthen its impact on child health and support ongoing efforts to improve access to medicines. Furthermore, efforts should be made to ensure global access to authorised paediatric medicines.

Burden of depressive disorders in Vietnam from 1990 to 2019: A secondary analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Depressive disorders are among the leading causes of disability globally. However, information on the burden of depressive disorders in Vietnam is limited. We aimed to analyse the burden of depressive disorders in Vietnam from 1990 to 2019. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were used as indicators to analyse the burden of depressive disorders by age and sex. In 2019 in Vietnam, depressive disorders comprised 2629.1 thousand (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 2233.3-3155.9) estimated cases and 380.6 thousand (95% UI: 258.9-533.8) estimated DALYs. The crude prevalence rate of depressive disorders was higher among females than among males. The DALYs of depressive disorder accounted for a higher percentage of the total all-cause DALYs in the 10-64-year age group than in other age groups. Major depressive disorder was the largest contributor to the burden of depressive disorders. From 1990 to 2019, the crude prevalence and DALY rates per 100 000 population due to depressive disorders increased significantly, whereas age-standardised rates of prevalence and DALYs decreased significantly; the respective average annual percent changes were 0.88% (95% confidence interval: 0.87 to 0.89), 0.68% (0.66 to 0.70), -0.20% (-0.21 to -0.19), and -0.27% (-0.28 to -0.25). Although the age-standardised prevalence rate was lower than that seen globally, depressive disorders were considerable mental health issues in Vietnam. This study will help governments and policymakers to establish appropriate strategies to reduce the burden of these disorders by identifying the priority areas and individuals.

Economic Evaluation of an Enhanced Post-Discharge Home-Based Care Program for Stroke Survivors

OBJECTIVES

To examine the cost-effectiveness of an enhanced postdischarge home-based care program for stroke survivors compared with usual care.

METHODS

This was a trial-based economic evaluation study. One hundred and sixteen patients with ischemic stroke were recruited from neurology units in a Chinese hospital and randomized into intervention (n = 58) or usual care groups (n = 58). The intervention commenced with predischarge planning and transitioned to home follow-up postdischarge. Trained nurse case managers supported by an interdisciplinary team provided comprehensive assessment, individualized goal setting, and skill training to support home-based rehabilitation for intervention group participants. Standard care was provided to usual care group participants. Total cost and quality-adjusted life-years gained at 3-month (T1), 6-month (T2), and 12-month (T3) follow-ups were calculated. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios between the groups were obtained.

RESULTS

The intervention group showed a significant increase in utility compared with the usual care group at T1 (P = .003), T2 (P = .007), and T3 (P < .001). The average total QALY gain from baseline for the intervention group was higher than for the usual care group at all time points. The likelihood of being cost-effective ranged from 61.9% to 67.2% from the provider perspective, and from 59.7% to 66.8% from the societal perspective.

CONCLUSIONS

The results showed that the intervention program was cost-effective with significantly higher quality-adjusted life-years for stroke survivors when compared with usual care. It provides economic evidence to support the development of home-based stroke rehabilitation program, especially in the low- and middle-income countries.

Discrete Event Simulation to Incorporate Infusion Wait-Time When Assessing Cost-Effectiveness of a Chimeric-Antigen Receptor T Cell Therapy

OBJECTIVES

The main objective was to use discrete event simulation to model the impact of wait-time, defined as the time between leukapheresis and chimeric antigen receptor (CAR-T) infusion, when assessing the cost-effectiveness of tisagenlecleucel in young patients with relapsed/refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

METHODS

The movement of patients through the model was determined by parametric time-to-event distributions, with the competing risk of an event determining the costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) assigned. Cost-effectiveness was expressed using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for tisagenlecleucel compared with chemotherapy over the lifetime.

RESULTS

The base case generated a total of 5.79 QALYs and $622 872 for tisagenlecleucel and 1.19 QALYs and $181 219 for blinatumomab, resulting in an ICER of $96 074 per QALY. An increase in mean CAR-T wait-time to 6.20 months reduced the benefit and costs of tisagenlecleucel to 2.78 QALYs and $294 478 because of fewer patients proceeding to infusion, reducing the ICER to $71 112 per QALY. Alternatively, when the cost of tisagenlecleucel was assigned pre-infusion in sensitivity analysis, the ICER increased with increasing wait-time.

CONCLUSIONS

Under a payment arrangement where CAR-T cost is incurred post-infusion, the loss of benefit to patients is not reflected in the ICER. This may be misguiding to decision makers, where cost-effectiveness ratios are used to guide resource allocation. discrete event simulation is an important tool for economic modeling of CAR-T as it is amenable to capturing the impact of wait-time, facilitating better understanding of factors affecting service delivery and consequently informed decision making to deliver faster access to CAR-T for patients.

Cost-effectiveness and drug wastage of bevacizumab biosimilar with or without chemotherapy for platinum-resistant recurrent ovarian cancer

INTRODUCTION

The cost-effectiveness of adding bevacizumab biosimilar with or without chemotherapy (CT) and drug wastage in treating platinum-resistant recurrent ovarian cancer (PRrOC) was assessed.

METHODS

A three-state partitioned-survival model to compare the clinical and economic outcomes in the treatment of patients with PRrOC from a Taiwan healthcare prospective, extrapolated to two years based on data obtained from the JGOG3023 clinical trial. The primary outcomes of the model were incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

RESULTS

In the base-case scenario, using vials of bevacizumab biosimilar (Bevbiol) plus chemotherapy, the ICER was (new Taiwan dollar) NT$ 4,555,878 per QALY gained. The incremental cost savings of an incremental 2.02 QALYs were NT$ 1,605,828 if weight-based Bevbiol plus chemotherapy were used, but the ICER remained high at the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold. If the cost of Bevbiol were reduced to 50% per vial, adding it to CT would be cost-effective at an acceptable WTP threshold of NTD 2,994,200, with an ICER of NT$ 2,975,484.

CONCLUSIONS

Bevacizumab biosimilars in mg/kg dosage form with chemotherapy are still not cost-effective in Taiwan, but using weight-based dosing will reduce drug waste and save treatment costs.

Is circulating tumor cell count-driven cost-effective for first-line therapy choice in HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer in the United States?

BACKGROUND

Circulating tumor cell (CTC) counting may be a useful non-invasive biomarker that helps patients choose first-line treatment options. Nevertheless, the cost of CTC inspection may impose an economic burden on patients, necessitating the simultaneous consideration of both its clinical effectiveness and cost. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of CTC count-guided chemotherapy and endocrine therapy as first-line therapy for HR+/HER2-metastatic breast cancer (MBC) from the perspective of US payers.

METHODS

Based on the STIC CTC trial, a Markov model was constructed for three health states, and health outcomes were measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the incremental cost per QALY.

RESULTS

The base-case analysis revealed that CTC count-driven treatment was associated with improved effectiveness by 0.07 QALYs and increased the overall cost by $9187.05 compared with clinician-driven first-line treatment choices, leading to an ICER of $138 354.15 per QALY. One-way sensitivity analysis indicated that the model was most sensitive to the cost of treatment for neutropenia and the utility for PFS; probability sensitivity analysis indicated that CTC count-driven treatment choices would be considered the cost-effective option at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150 000 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this cost-effectiveness analysis suggest that, at the current price of CTC enumeration, choosing first-line treatment options based on CTC count is a cost-effectiveness approach for treating patients with HR+/HER2- MBC in the US.

Trends in age-standardized incidence rates of depression in adolescents aged 10-24 in 204 countries and regions from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to provide a comprehensive analysis of the spatial distribution and temporal trends in the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of depression in adolescents aged 10-24 worldwide.

METHODS

Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 were analyzed, adopting Sawyer's broad definition of adolescence encompassing ages 10 to 24. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were used to assess temporal trends.

RESULTS

Globally, from 1990 to 2019, there was a decrease in the ASIR of depression in adolescents (EAPC = -0.23). Notably, this decrease was more pronounced in female adolescents compared to their male counterparts (EAPC = -0.12 and - 0.29, respectively). Conversely, high Sociodemographic Index (SDI) regions experienced a significant increase in the ASIR of depression among adolescents (EAPC = 0.87). Furthermore, it is worth mentioning that individuals aged 20-24 exhibited the highest incidence rate for depression followed by those aged 15-19 and then those aged 10-14. The largest increases in the ASIRs of depression occurred in High-income North America (EAPC = 1.19) and Malaysia (EAPC = 2.4), respectively.

LIMITATIONS

Mathematical models were used to reconstruct and adjust data of different qualities, which might have introduced bias.

CONCLUSIONS

The global burden of disease for depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years declined from 1990 to 2019. Special attention must be paid to older adolescents and areas with higher SDIs.

The impacts of exposure to risk factors during youth on the increasing global trend of early-onset pancreatic cancer

OBJECTIVES

An increasing trend of pancreatic cancer in young adults has emerged in some countries. This study aimed to investigate global trends of pancreatic cancer in young adults and explore the impact of exposure to risk factors on pancreatic cancer incidence during youth.

METHODS

Global and national data on pancreatic cancer incidence, disability-adjusted life-years, attributive mortality, and summary exposure values of risk factors were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) of incidence and mortality was calculated. Additionally, generalized additive models were applied to explore the non-linear associations between the levels and changes in the Human Development Index and AAPC.

RESULTS

Global pancreatic cancer incidence increased during various periods from 1990 to 2019, particularly in adults aged <45 years from 2010 to 2019, at an average annual increase rate of 0.7% (95% confidence interval: 0.4-1.0%). The AAPC of early-onset pancreatic cancer incidence from 2010 to 2019 was negatively correlated with Human Development Index levels in both 2010 and 2019 but positively correlated with Human Development Index acceleration. Significant increases in early-onset pancreatic cancer incidence were observed over this period in 32 of 88 countries, primarily in South America, North America, Oceania, and Africa. Early-onset pancreatic cancer mortality attributed to high body mass index and fasting plasma glucose increased, while that attributed to tobacco use declined.

CONCLUSIONS

An increasing trend has emerged in the global incidence and burden of early-onset pancreatic cancer over the last few decades. This rise may partly be attributed to global epidemics of high body mass index and fasting plasma glucose.

Worldwide Prevalence and Disability From Mental Disorders Across Childhood and Adolescence: Evidence From the Global Burden of Disease Study

Importance

The period from childhood to early adulthood involves increased susceptibility to the onset of mental disorders, with implications for policy making that may be better appreciated by disaggregated analyses of narrow age groups.

Objective

To estimate the global prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) associated with mental disorders and substance use disorders (SUDs) across 4 age groups using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Data from the 2019 GBD study were used for analysis of mental disorders and SUDs. Results were stratified by age group (age 5 to 9, 10 to 14, 15 to 19, and 20 to 24 years) and sex. Data for the 2019 GBD study were collected up to 2018, and data were analyzed for this article from April 2022 to September 2023.

Exposure

Age 5 to 9 years, 10 to 14 years, 15 to 19 years, and 20 to 24 years.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Prevalence rates with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs) and number of YLDs.

Results

Globally in 2019, 293 million of 2516 million individuals aged 5 to 24 years had at least 1 mental disorder, and 31 million had an SUD. The mean prevalence was 11.63% for mental disorders and 1.22% for SUDs. For the narrower age groups, the prevalence of mental disorders was 6.80% (95% UI, 5.58-8.03) for those aged 5 to 9 years, 12.40% (95% UI, 10.62-14.59) for those aged 10 to 14 years, 13.96% (95% UI, 12.36-15.78) for those aged 15 to 19 years, and 13.63% (95% UI, 11.90-15.53) for those aged 20 to 24 years. The prevalence of each individual disorder also varied by age groups; sex-specific patterns varied to some extent by age. Mental disorders accounted for 31.14 million of 153.59 million YLDs (20.27% of YLDs from all causes). SUDs accounted for 4.30 million YLDs (2.80% of YLDs from all causes). Over the entire life course, 24.85% of all YLDs attributable to mental disorders were recorded before age 25 years.

Conclusions and Relevance

An analytical framework that relies on stratified age groups should be adopted for examination of mental disorders and SUDs from childhood to early adulthood. Given the implications of the early onset and lifetime burden of mental disorders and SUDs, age-disaggregated data are essential for the understanding of vulnerability and effective prevention and intervention initiatives.

Cost-effectiveness of behavioral activation compared to treatment as usual for depressed older adults in primary care: A cluster randomized controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Depression in older adults is associated with decreased quality of life and increased utilization of healthcare services. Behavioral activation (BA) is an effective treatment for late-life depression, but the cost-effectiveness compared to treatment as usual (TAU) is unknown.

METHODS

An economic evaluation was performed alongside a cluster randomized controlled multicenter trial including 161 older adults (≥65 years) with moderate to severe depressive symptoms (PHQ-9 ≥ 10). Outcome measures were depression (response on the QIDS-SR), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and societal costs. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation. Cost and effect differences were estimated using bivariate linear regression models, and statistical uncertainty was estimated with bootstrapping. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves showed the probability of cost-effectiveness at different ceiling ratios.

RESULTS

Societal costs were statistically non-significantly lower in BA compared to TAU (mean difference (MD) -€485, 95 % CI -3861 to 2792). There were no significant differences in response on the QIDS-SR (MD 0.085, 95 % CI -0.015 to 0.19), and QALYs (MD 0.026, 95 % CI -0.0037 to 0.055). On average, BA was dominant over TAU (i.e., more effective and less expensive), although the probability of dominance was only 0.60 from the societal perspective and 0.85 from the health care perspective for both QIDS-SR response and QALYs.

DISCUSSION

Although the results suggest that BA is dominant over TAU, there was considerable uncertainty surrounding the cost-effectiveness estimates which precludes firm conclusions.