Effectiveness and Cost-effectiveness of Artificial Intelligence-assisted Pathology for Prostate Cancer Diagnosis in Sweden: A Microsimulation Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Image-based artificial intelligence (AI) methods have shown high accuracy in prostate cancer (PCa) detection. Their impact on patient outcomes and cost effectiveness in comparison to human pathologists remains unknown. Our aim was to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of AI-assisted pathology for PCa diagnosis in Sweden.

METHODS

We modeled quadrennial prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for men between the ages of 50 and 74 yr over a lifetime horizon using a health care perspective. Men with PSA ≥3 ng/ml were referred for standard biopsy (SBx), for which cores were either examined via AI followed by a pathologist for AI-labeled positive cores, or a pathologist alone. The AI performance characteristics were estimated using an internal STHLM3 validation data set. Outcome measures included the number of tests, PCa incidence and mortality, overdiagnosis, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the potential reduction in pathologist-evaluated biopsy cores if AI were used. Cost-effectiveness was assessed using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS

In comparison to a pathologist alone, the AI-assisted workflow increased the number of PSA tests, SBx procedures, and PCa deaths by ≤0.03%, and slightly reduced PCa incidence and overdiagnosis. AI would reduce the proportion of biopsy cores evaluated by a pathologist by 80%. At a cost of €10 per case, the AI-assisted workflow would cost less and result in <0.001% lower QALYs in comparison to a pathologist alone. The results were sensitive to the AI cost.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

According to our model, AI-assisted pathology would significantly decrease the workload of pathologists, would not affect patient quality of life, and would yield cost savings in Sweden when compared to a human pathologist alone.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We compared outcomes for prostate cancer patients and relevant costs for two methods of assessing prostate biopsies in Sweden: (1) artificial intelligence (AI) technology and review of positive biopsies by a human pathologist; and (2) a human pathologist alone for all biopsies. We found that addition of AI would reduce the pathology workload and save money, and would not affect patient outcomes when compared to a human pathologist alone. The results suggest that adding AI to prostate pathology in Sweden would save costs.

Sampling complex social and behavioral phenomena

We comment on the limits of relying on prior literature when constructing the design space for an integrative experiment; the adaptive nature of social and behavioral phenomena and the implications for the use of theory and modeling when constructing the design space; and on the challenges of measuring random errors and lab-related biases in measurement without replication.

Household air pollution and pneumococcal density related to nasopharyngeal inflammation in mothers and children in Ethiopia: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Three billion people in low- and middle-income countries are exposed to household air pollution as they use biomass fuel for cooking. We investigated the associations between solid fuel use and nasopharyngeal (NP) inflammation, as well as the associations between high pneumococcal density and NP inflammation, in mothers and children in rural and urban Ethiopia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Sixty pairs of mothers (median age, 30 years; range, 19-45 years) with a child (median age, 9 months; range, 1-24 months) were included from rural Butajira (n = 30) and urban Addis Ababa (n = 30) in Ethiopia. The cohort was randomly selected from a previous study of 545 mother/child pairs included 2016. Questionnaire-based data were collected which included fuel type used (solid: wood, charcoal, dung or crop waste; cleaner: electricity, liquefied petroleum gas). Nasopharyngeal (NP) samples were collected from all mothers and children and analyzed for the levels of 18 cytokines using a Luminex immunoassay. Pneumococcal DNA densities were measured by a real-time multiplex PCR and a high pneumococcal density was defined as a cyclic threshold (Ct) value ≤ 30.

RESULTS

Mothers from rural areas had higher median CXCL8 levels in NP secretions than those from urban areas (8000 versus 1900 pg/mL; p < 0.01), while rural children had slightly higher IL-10 levels than those from the urban area (26 vs 13 pg/mL; p = 0.04). No associations between fuel type and cytokine levels were found. However, a high pneumococcal density was associated with higher levels of cytokines in both mothers (CCL4, CXCL8, IL-1β, IL-6 and VEGF-A) and children (CCL4, CXCL8, IL-1β, IL-6 and IL-18).

CONCLUSIONS

No significant associations were found between solid fuel use and NP inflammation in Ethiopian mothers and children, but the inflammatory activity was higher in individuals living in the rural compared to the urban area. In addition, high cytokine levels were associated with high pneumococcal density in both mothers and children, indicating a significant impact of NP pathogens on inflammatory mediator levels in upper airways.

Cross-cultural adaption and inter-rater reliability of the Swedish version of the updated clinical frailty scale 2.0

BACKGROUND

Worldwide, there is a large and growing group of older adults. Frailty is known as an important discriminatory factor for poor outcomes. The Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) has become a frequently used frailty instrument in different clinical settings and health care sectors, and it has shown good predictive validity. The aims of this study were to describe and validate the translation and cultural adaptation of the CFS into Swedish (CFS-SWE), and to test the inter-rater reliability (IRR) for registered nurses using the CFS-SWE.

METHODS

An observational study design was employed. The ISPOR principles were used for the translation, linguistic validation and cultural adaptation of the scale. To test the IRR, 12 participants were asked to rate 10 clinical case vignettes using the CFS-SWE. The IRR was assessed using intraclass correlation and Krippendorff's alpha agreement coefficient test.

RESULTS

The Clinical Frailty Scale was translated and culturally adapted into Swedish and is presented in its final form. The IRR for all raters, measured by an intraclass correlation test, resulted in an absolute agreement value among the raters of 0.969 (95% CI: 0.929-0.991) and a consistency value of 0.979 (95% CI: 0.953-0.994), which indicates excellent reliability. Krippendorff's alpha agreement coefficient for all raters was 0.969 (95% CI: 0.917-0.988), indicating near-perfect agreement. The sensitivity of the reliability was examined by separately testing the IRR of the group of specialised registered nurses and non-specialised registered nurses respectively, with consistent and similar results.

CONCLUSION

The Clinical Frailty Scale was translated, linguistically validated and culturally adapted into Swedish following a well-established standard technique. The IRR was excellent, judged by two established, separately used, reliability tests. The reliability test results did not differ between non-specialised and specialised registered nurses. However, the use of case vignettes might reduce the generalisability of the reliability findings to real-life settings. The CFS has the potential to be a common reference tool, especially when older adults are treated and rehabilitated in different care sectors.

Cohort profile: The Swedish Tattoo and Body Modifications Cohort (TABOO)

PURPOSE

The Swedish Tattoo and Body Modifications Cohort (TABOO) cohort was established to provide an infrastructure for epidemiological studies researching the role of tattoos and other body modifications as risk factors for adverse health outcomes. It is the first population-based cohort with detailed exposure assessment of decorative, cosmetic, and medical tattoos, piercing, scarification, henna tattoos, cosmetic laser treatments, hair dyeing, and sun habits. The level of detail in the exposure assessment of tattoos allows for investigation of crude dose-response relationships.

PARTICIPANTS

The TABOO cohort includes 13 049 individuals that participated in a questionnaire survey conducted in 2021 (response rate 49%). Outcome data are retrieved from the National Patient Register, the National Prescribed Drug Register and the National Cause of Death Register. Participation in the registers is regulated by Swedish law, which eliminates the risk of loss to follow-up and associated selection bias.

FINDINGS TO DATE

The tattoo prevalence in TABOO is 21%. The cohort is currently used to clarify the incidence of acute and long-lasting health complaints after tattooing based on self-reported data. Using register-based outcome data, we are investigating the role of tattoos as a risk factor for immune-mediated disease, including hypersensitisation, foreign body reactions and autoimmune conditions.

FUTURE PLANS

The register linkage will be renewed every third year to update the outcome data, and we have ethical approval to reapproach the responders with additional questionnaires.

SAUNA QB - Array: The realization of a new concept in radioxenon detection

We introduce a new concept in radioxenon detection - the radioxenon Array, defined as a system where air sampling and activity measurement is performed at multiple locations, using measurement units that are less sensitive, but on the other hand less costly, and easier to install and operate, compared to current state-of-the-art radioxenon systems. The inter-unit distance in the Array is typically hundreds of kilometres. Using synthetic nuclear explosions together with a parametrized measurement system model, we argue that, when such measurement units are combined into an Array, the aggregated verification performance (detection, location, and characterization) can be high. The concept has been realized by developing a measurement unit named SAUNA Q_B, and the world's first radioxenon Array is now operating in Sweden. The operational principles and performance of the SAUNA Q_B and the Array is described, and examples of first measured data are presented, indicating a measurement performance according to expectations.

A21 ROLE OF SIALIC ACID O-ACETYLATION IN MAINTAINING MUCUS INTEGRITY AND HOMEOSTASIS OF THE COLONIC MUCOSA

Background

The mucus network provides innate immune defense to protect our gastrointestinal tract from pathogens, and promote homeostasis with our resident microbiota. This network is constituted by the mucin MUC2 (Muc2 in mouse), which is ~80% complex O-linked glycans by weight. Sialic acid (Sia) is a key capping monosaccharide on complex O-glycans which has recently been linked to preserving mucus integrity. Sia can undergo enzymatic modifications including the addition of O-acetyl groups. The 9-O-acetyltransferase CasD1 is responsible for the 9-OAc Sia variants. Functionally, the OAc-modification is known to inhibit microbial sialidase activities which may preserve Sia’s protective roles on mucins. However, the extent of these OAc modifications in human and murine Mucin-2, and how they influence mucus function is unclear.

Purpose: To determine whether and how Sia O-acetylation on colonic mucus regulates mucus integrity, host-microbe interactions, and colitis susceptibility.

Method

We used viral-derived probes that target specific OAc-Sia analogues on mucus on sections from human feces and mouse feces and colon tissues to visualize their spatial arrangement and microbial interaction in situ. For glycomics, OAc-Sia analogues were quantitated on purified human MUC2 and mouse Muc2 by HPLC-MS after derivatization with 4,5-dimethyl-1,2-diaminobenzamine (DMBA). O-glycans were released via non-reductive ammonia-catalyzed β-elimination and analyzed by mass spectrometry. For in vivo work, we generated intestinal epithelial cell-specific Casd1 KO mice (Casd1^flox/flox;VillinCre or IEC Casd1^-/- mice) and analyzed their mucins. Sialidase activities were quantified in the supernatants of colon fecal materials from WT and IEC Casd1^-/- mutants mice using a fluorogenic substrate 4-MU-NeuNAc. Colitis susceptibility was monitored using 1.5% w/v Dextran Sodium Sulfate (DSS).

Result(s)

We found Sias on both human MUC2 and murine Muc2 were heavily O-acetylated, with ~75% and ~45% of Sias having 9-OAc-based modification in humans and mice respectively, and were distributed throughout the niche and barrier layers of mucus in situ. IEC Casd1^-/- mice were viable and healthy with knockdown confirmed by 9-OAc staining, western blot of protein lysates and mucins, and sialylomics. The mucus encapsulation appeared overall intact regardless of OAc status. However, IEC Casd1^-/- mice showed heightened susceptibility to 1.5% DSS colitis, linked to thinning of the mucus in IEC Casd1^-/- vs WT littermates after challenge. Consistent with the role of OAc Sia in sialidase inhibition, loss of OAc Sia was associated with increased sialidase activities as assessed by heightened 4 MU signal in fecal supernatants in WT vs littermate IEC Casd1^-/- mice. O-glycomics also showed reduction in the number of sialylated O-glycan structures upon loss of 9-OAc Sia.

Conclusion(s)

Sia O-acetylation appears important in maintaining key aspects of Sia-dependent mucus function and protecting from inflammatory insult.

Please acknowledge all funding agencies by checking the applicable boxes below: CCC

Disclosure of Interest

None Declared

Beyond collective intelligence: Collective adaptation

We develop a conceptual framework for studying collective adaptation in complex socio-cognitive systems, driven by dynamic interactions of social integration strategies, social environments and problem structures. Going beyond searching for 'intelligent' collectives, we integrate research from different disciplines and outline modelling approaches that can be used to begin answering questions such as why collectives sometimes fail to reach seemingly obvious solutions, how they change their strategies and network structures in response to different problems and how we can anticipate and perhaps change future harmful societal trajectories. We discuss the importance of considering path dependence, lack of optimization and collective myopia to understand the sometimes counterintuitive outcomes of collective adaptation. We call for a transdisciplinary, quantitative and societally useful social science that can help us to understand our rapidly changing and ever more complex societies, avoid collective disasters and reach the full potential of our ability to organize in adaptive collectives.

Interobserver reproducibility of cribriform cancer in prostate needle biopsies and validation of International Society of Urological Pathology criteria

AIMS

There is strong evidence that cribriform morphology indicates a worse prognosis of prostatic adenocarcinoma. Our aim was to investigate its interobserver reproducibility in prostate needle biopsies.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A panel of nine prostate pathology experts from five continents independently reviewed 304 digitised biopsies for cribriform cancer according to recent International Society of Urological Pathology criteria. The biopsies were collected from a series of 702 biopsies that were reviewed by one of the panellists for enrichment of high-grade cancer and potentially cribriform structures. A 2/3 consensus diagnosis of cribriform and noncribriform cancer was reached in 90% (272/304) of the biopsies with a mean kappa value of 0.56 (95% confidence interval 0.52-0.61). The prevalence of consensus cribriform cancers was estimated to 4%, 12%, 21%, and 20% of Gleason scores 7 (3 + 4), 7 (4 + 3), 8, and 9-10, respectively. More than two cribriform structures per level or a largest cribriform mass with ≥9 lumina or a diameter of ≥0.5 mm predicted a consensus diagnosis of cribriform cancer in 88% (70/80), 84% (87/103), and 90% (56/62), respectively, and noncribriform cancer in 3% (2/80), 5% (5/103), and 2% (1/62), respectively (all P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Cribriform prostate cancer was seen in a minority of needle biopsies with high-grade cancer. Stringent diagnostic criteria enabled the identification of cribriform patterns and the generation of a large set of consensus cases for standardisation.

Evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen diagnostic tests for saliva samples

Using saliva samples would facilitate sample collection, diagnostic feasibility, and mass screening of SARS-CoV-2. We tested two rapid antigen (RAD) immunochromatographic tests designed for detection of SARS-CoV-2 in saliva: Rapid Response™ COVID-19 Antigen Rapid Test Cassette for oral fluids and DIAGNOS™ COVID-19 Antigen Saliva Test. Evaluation of detection limit was performed with purified SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein and live SARS-CoV-2 virus. Sensitivity and specificity were further evaluated with reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) positive and negative saliva samples from hospitalized individuals with COVID-19 (n = 39) and healthcare workers (n = 20). DIAGNOS showed higher sensitivity than Rapid Response for both nucleocapsid protein and live virus. The limit of detection of the saliva test from DIAGNOS was further comparable with the Abbott Panbio™ COVID-19 Ag Rapid Test designed for nasopharyngeal samples. DIAGNOS and Rapid Response detected nine (50.0%) and seven (38.9%), respectively, of the 18 RT-qPCR positive saliva samples. All RT-qPCR negative saliva (n = 41) were negative with both tests. Only one of the RT-qPCR positive saliva samples contained infectious virus as determined by cell culture and was also positive using the saliva RADs. The results show that the DIAGNOS may be an important and easy-to-use saliva RAD complement to detect SARS-CoV-2 positive individuals, but validation with a larger sample set is warranted.

Predictors of short- and long-term mortality in critically ill, older adults admitted to the emergency department: an observational study

Background

In the future, we can expect an increase in older patients in emergency departments (ED) and acute wards. The main purpose of this study was to identify predictors of short- and long-term mortality in the ED and at hospital discharge.

Methods

This is a retrospective, observational, single-center, cohort study, involving critically ill older adults, recruited consecutively in an ED. The primary outcome was mortality. All patients were followed for 6.5–7.5 years. The Cox proportional hazards model was used.

Results

Regarding all critically ill patients aged ≥ 70 years and identified in the ED (n = 402), there was a significant association between mortality at 30 days after ED admission and unconsciousness on admission (HR 3.14, 95% CI 2.09–4.74), hypoxia on admission (HR 2.51, 95% CI 1.69–3.74) and age (HR 1.06 per year, 95% CI 1.03–1.09), (all p < 0.001).

Of 402 critically ill patients aged ≥ 70 years and identified in the ED, 303 were discharged alive from hospital. There was a significant association between long-term mortality and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) > 2 (HR 1.90, 95% CI 1.46–2.48), length of stay (LOS) > 7 days (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.32–2.23), discharge diagnosis of pneumonia (HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.24–2.21) and age (HR 1.08 per year, 95% CI 1.05–1.10), (all p < 0.001). The only symptom or vital sign associated with long-term mortality was hypoxia on admission (HR 1.70, 05% CI 1.30–2.22).

Conclusions

Among critically ill older adults admitted to an ED and discharged alive the following factors were predictive of long-term mortality: CCI > 2, LOS > 7 days, hypoxia on admission, discharge diagnosis of pneumonia and age. The following factors were predictive of mortality at 30 days after ED admission: unconsciousness on admission, hypoxia and age. These data might be clinically relevant when it comes to individualized care planning, which should take account of risk prediction and estimated prognosis.

Mortality in men with castration‐resistant prostate cancer—A long‐term follow‐up of a population‐based real‐world cohort

Objectives

The objective of this study is to find clinical variables that predict the prognosis for men with castration‐resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) in a Swedish real‐life CRPC cohort, including a risk group classification to clarify the risk of succumbing to prostate cancer. This is a natural history cohort representing the premodern drug era before the introduction of novel hormonal drug therapies.

Methods

PSA tests from the clinical chemistry laboratories serving health care in six regions of Sweden were retrieved and cross‐linked to the National Prostate Cancer Registry (NPCR) to identify men with a prostate cancer diagnosis. Through further cross‐linking with data sources at the Swedish Board of Health and Welfare, we retrieved other relevant information such as prescribed drugs, hospitalizations, and cause of death. Men entered the CRPC cohort at the first date of doubling of their PSA nadir value with the last value being >2 ng/ml, or an absolute increase of >5 ng/ml or more, whilst on 3 months of medical castration or if they had been surgically castrated (n = 4098). By combining the two variables with the largest C‐statistics, “PSA at time of CRPC” and “PSA doubling time,” a risk group classification was created.

Results

PSA‐DT and PSA at date of CRPC are the strongest variables associated with PC specific survival. At the end of follow‐up, the proportion of men who died due to PC was 57%, 71%, 81%, 86%, and 89% for risk categories one through five, respectively. The median overall survival in our cohort of men with CRPC was 1.86 years (95% CI: 1.79–1.97).

Conclusion

For a man with castration‐resistant prostate cancer, there is a high probability that this will be the main cause contributing to his death. However, there is a significant difference in mortality that varies in relation to tumor burden assessed as PSA doubling time and PSA at time of CRCP. This information could be used in a clinical setting when deciding when to treat more or less aggressively once entering the CRPC phase of the disease.

OpenPhi: An interface to access Philips iSyntax whole slide images for computational pathology

Summary

Digital pathology enables applying computational methods, such as deep learning, in pathology for improved diagnostics and prognostics, but lack of interoperability between whole slide image formats of different scanner vendors is a challenge for algorithm developers. We present OpenPhi—Open PatHology Interface, an Application Programming Interface for seamless access to the iSyntax format used by the Philips Ultra Fast Scanner, the first digital pathology scanner approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration. OpenPhi is extensible and easily interfaced with existing vendor-neutral applications.

Availability and implementation

OpenPhi is implemented in Python and is available as open-source under the MIT license at: https://gitlab.com/BioimageInformaticsGroup/openphi. The Philips Software Development Kit is required and available at: https://www.openpathology.philips.com. OpenPhi version 1.1.1 is additionally provided as Supplementary Data.

Supplementary information

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Human social sensing is an untapped resource for computational social science

The ability to 'sense' the social environment and thereby to understand the thoughts and actions of others allows humans to fit into their social worlds, communicate and cooperate, and learn from others' experiences. Here we argue that, through the lens of computational social science, this ability can be used to advance research into human sociality. When strategically selected to represent a specific population of interest, human social sensors can help to describe and predict societal trends. In addition, their reports of how they experience their social worlds can help to build models of social dynamics that are constrained by the empirical reality of human social systems.

SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen test: High sensitivity to detect infectious virus

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for rapid, cost effective and easy-to-use diagnostic tools for SARS-CoV-2 infections that can be used in point of care settings to limit disease transmission.

Objective

We evaluated two rapid antigen immunochromatographic tests, Abbott Panbio™ COVID-19 Ag Rapid Test (Panbio) and Zhejiang Orient Gene/Healgen Biotech Coronavirus Ag rapid test cassette (Orient gene) for detection of infectious SARS-CoV-2.

Results

The tests were evaluated on nasopharyngeal samples taken from individuals having respiratory and/or COVID-19 related symptoms, which had been analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 RNA using real-time PCR. In total 156 PCR-positive, and 130 (Panbio) and 176 (Orient Gene) PCR-negative samples were analyzed. Overall sensitivity and specificity were 71.8% and 100% for Panbio and 79.5% and 74.4% for the Orient Gene test respectively. The false positives by the Orient Gene test were verified as SARS-CoV-2 negative by in-house real-time PCR assay and were negative for the four seasonal coronaviruses. Subgroup analysis revealed that the antigen tests had high sensitivity for samples with Ct-values <25 (>88%) and for samples containing infectious viruses as determined by cultivation on Vero cells, 94.1% and 97.1% for the Panbio and Orient gene tests, respectively. Furthermore, both tests had a sensitivity of <50 picogram for nucleocapsid protein. No sample with a Ct-value >27 was shown to contain infectious virus.

Conclusion

The results indicate that the rapid antigen tests, especially the Panbio tests may be a valuable tool to detect contagious persons during the ongoing pandemic.

Falling through the cracks: Modeling the formation of social category boundaries

Social categorizations divide people into “us” and “them”, often along continuous attributes such as political ideology or skin color. This division results in both positive consequences, such as a sense of community, and negative ones, such as group conflict. Further, individuals in the middle of the spectrum can fall through the cracks of this categorization process and are seen as out-group by individuals on either side of the spectrum, becoming inbetweeners. Here, we propose a quantitative, dynamical-system model that studies the joint influence of cognitive and social processes. We model where two social groups draw the boundaries between “us” and ‘them” on a continuous attribute. Our model predicts that both groups tend to draw a more restrictive boundary than the middle of the spectrum. As a result, each group sees the individuals in the middle of the attribute space as an out-group. We test this prediction using U.S. political survey data on how political independents are perceived by registered party members as well as existing experiments on the perception of racially ambiguous faces, and find support.

Integrating social and cognitive aspects of belief dynamics: towards a unifying framework

Belief change and spread have been studied in many disciplines-from psychology, sociology, economics and philosophy, to biology, computer science and statistical physics-but we still do not have a firm grasp on why some beliefs change more easily and spread faster than others. To fully capture the complex social-cognitive system that gives rise to belief dynamics, we first review insights about structural components and processes of belief dynamics studied within different disciplines. We then outline a unifying quantitative framework that enables theoretical and empirical comparisons of different belief dynamic models. This framework uses a statistical physics formalism, grounded in cognitive and social theory, as well as empirical observations. We show how this framework can be used to integrate extant knowledge and develop a more comprehensive understanding of belief dynamics.

Interobserver reproducibility of perineural invasion of prostatic adenocarcinoma in needle biopsies

Numerous studies have shown a correlation between perineural invasion (PNI) in prostate biopsies and outcome. The reporting of PNI varies widely in the literature. While the interobserver variability of prostate cancer grading has been studied extensively, less is known regarding the reproducibility of PNI. A total of 212 biopsy cores from a population-based screening trial were included in this study (106 with and 106 without PNI according to the original pathology reports). The glass slides were scanned and circulated among four pathologists with a special interest in urological pathology for assessment of PNI. Discordant cases were stained by immunohistochemistry for S-100 protein. PNI was diagnosed by all four observers in 34.0% of cases, while 41.5% were considered to be negative for PNI. In 24.5% of cases, there was a disagreement between the observers. The kappa for interobserver variability was 0.67–0.75 (mean 0.73). The observations from one participant were compared with data from the original reports, and a kappa for intraobserver variability of 0.87 was achieved. Based on immunohistochemical findings among discordant cases, 88.6% had PNI while 11.4% did not. The most common diagnostic pitfall was the presence of bundles of stroma or smooth muscle. It was noted in a few cases that collagenous micronodules could be mistaken for a nerve. The distance between cancer and nerve was another cause of disagreement. Although the results suggest that the reproducibility of PNI may be greater than that of prostate cancer grading, there is still a need for improvement and standardization.

Biomarker discrimination and calibration with MRI-targeted biopsies: an analysis with the Stockholm3 test

BACKGROUND

The validated Stockholm3 test is used to improve PC detection. Stockholm3, however, was developed using systematic biopsies. We aimed to assess Stockholm3 operating performance when using MRI-targeted biopsies for PC detection.

METHODS

A prospective cohort of 532 men was considered for prostate biopsy during 2016-2017. All men underwent Stockholm3 testing and MRI before biopsy. All PIRADs ≥3 lesion underwent targeted biopsy; all men underwent systematic biopsy. The primary outcome was ISUP Grade Group ≥2 (GG ≥ 2) PC. Detection strategies included: (1) systematic biopsies alone, (2) targeted biopsies alone, (3) targeted with associated systematic biopsies for MRI+, and (4) all biopsies in all men. For each strategy, the Stockholm3 operating characteristics were assessed with discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Median age was 65 years, median PSA was 6.2 ng/mL, median Stockholm3 score was 16.5%, and overall detection of GG ≥ 2 PC was 36% (193/532). Stockholm3 showed accurate discrimination for separating GG ≥ 2 cancer from benign and GG1, with an area under the curve of 0.84-0.86 depending on the biopsy strategy. Calibration analysis showed that Stockholm3 underestimated risks for GG ≥ 2 PC risk using MRI-targeted biopsies: there was a net benefit over biopsies in all men for Stockholm3 at risk thresholds varying from >3% in systematic biopsies to >15% in targeted with systematic biopsies in MRI+ men. When using a Stockholm3 score of >10% cutoff, a range of 32-38% of biopsies could be avoided while missing 5-11% of GG ≥ 2 PC and 0-3% of GG ≥ 3 PC.

CONCLUSIONS

Stockholm3 shows high discriminatory performance in an MRI-targeted biopsy setting, however risks are underpredicted due to MRI-targeted biopsies being more sensitive than the systematic biopsies for which Stockholm3 was developed. Stockholm3, along with any risk prediction model developed for systematic prostate biopsy decisions, will need recalibration for optimal use in an MRI-driven biopsy setting.

Incorporating Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Biomarkers in Active Surveillance Protocols - Results From the Prospective Stockholm3 Active Surveillance Trial (STHLM3AS)

BACKGROUND

Active surveillance (AS) for men with low-risk prostate cancer (PC) can lead to patient morbidity and healthcare overutilization. The aim of this study was to evaluate an AS protocol using the Stockholm3 test and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to reduce biopsy intensity.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective multicenter study of 280 invited men from a contemporary screening study (STHLM3), with Gleason Score (GS) 3 + 3 PC on a current AS protocol. Patients underwent prostate-MRI and blood sampling for analysis of the Stockholm3 test including protein biomarkers, genetic variants, and clinical variables to predict risk of GS ≥3 + 4 PC followed by systematic biopsies and targeted biopsies (for Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System version 2 ≥3 lesions) in all men. Primary outcomes were reclassification to GS ≥3 + 4 PC and clinically significant PC (csPCa), including unfavorable intermediate risk PC or higher based on National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines.

RESULTS

Adding MRI-targeted biopsies to systematic biopsies increased sensitivity of GS ≥3 + 4 PC compared with systematic biopsies alone (relative sensitivity [RS] = 1.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.28 to 1.85). Performing biopsies in only MRI positive increased sensitivity of GS ≥3 + 4 PC (RS = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.67) and reduced number of biopsy procedures by 49.3% while missing 7.2% GS ≥3 + 4 PC and 1.4% csPCa. Excluding men with negative Stockholm3 test reduced the number of MRI investigations at follow-up by 22.5% and biopsies by 56.8% while missing 6.9% GS ≥3 + 4 PC and 1.3% csPCa.

CONCLUSION

Including MRI and targeted/systematic biopsies in the follow-up for men on AS increased sensitivity of PC reclassification. Incorporation of risk prediction models including biomarkers may reduce the need for MRI use in men with low-risk PC.

Predictors of adverse pathology on radical prostatectomy specimen in men initially enrolled in active surveillance for low-risk prostate cancer

Purpose

To evaluate clinical variables, including magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) predictive of adverse pathology (AP) at radical prostatectomy (RP) in men initially enrolled in active surveillance (AS).

Methods

A population-based cohort study of men diagnosed with low-risk prostate cancer (PCa), in Stockholm County, Sweden, during 2008–2017 enrolled in AS their intended primary treatment followed by RP. AP was defined as ISUP grade group  ≥ 3 and/or pT-stage ≥ T3. Association between clinical variables at diagnosis and time to AP was evaluated using Cox regression and multivariate logistic regression to evaluate the association between AP and clinical variables at last biopsy before RP.

Results

In a cohort of 6021 patients with low-risk PCa, 3116 were selected for AS and 216 underwent RP. Follow-up was 10 years, with a median time on AS of 23 months. 37.7% of patients had AP at RP. Clinical T-stage [Hazard ratio (HR): 1.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04–3.18] and PSA (HR: 1.31, 95% CI 1.17–1.46) at diagnosis and age [Odds Ratio (OR): 1.09, 95% CI 1.02–1.18), PSA (OR: 1.22, 95% CI 1.07–1.41), and PI-RADS (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.11–2.55)] at last re-biopsy were significantly associated with AP.

Conclusion

PI-RADS score is significantly associated with AP at RP and support current guidelines recommending MRI before enrollment in AS. Furthermore, age, cT-stage, and PSA are significantly associated with AP.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00345-020-03394-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Linear integration and lexicographic models of choice: A cue weight learning perspective

Choosing between options characterized by multiple cues can be a daunting task. People may integrate all information at hand or just use lexicographic strategies that ignore most of it. Notably, integrative strategies require knowing exact cue weights, whereas lexicographic heuristics can operate by merely knowing the importance order of cues. Here we study how using integrative or lexicographic strategies interacts with learning about cues. In our choice-learning-estimation paradigm people first make choices, learning about cues from the experienced qualities of chosen options, and then estimate qualities of new options. We developed delta-elimination (DE), a new lexicographic strategy that generalizes previous heuristics to any type of environment, and compared it to the integrative weighted-additive (WADD) strategy. Our results show that participants learned cue weights, regardless of whether the DE strategy or the WADD strategy described their choices the best. Still, there was an interaction between the adopted strategy and the cue weight learning process: the DE users learned cue weights slower than the WADD users. This work advances the study of lexicographic choice strategies, both empirically and theoretically, and deepens our understanding of strategy selection, in particular the interaction between the strategy used and learning the structure of the environment. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).