Transition matrices model as a way to better understand and predict intra-hospital pathways of covid-19 patients

Since January 2020, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has severely affected hospital systems worldwide. In Europe, the first 3 epidemic waves (periods) have been the most severe in terms of number of infected and hospitalized patients. There are several descriptions of the demographic and clinical profiles of patients with COVID-19, but few studies of their hospital pathways. We used transition matrices, constructed from Markov chains, to illustrate the transition probabilities between different hospital wards for 90,834 patients between March 2020 and July 2021 managed in Paris area. We identified 3 epidemic periods (waves) during which the number of hospitalized patients was significantly high. Between the 3 periods, the main differences observed were: direct admission to ICU, from 14 to 18%, mortality from ICU, from 28 to 24%, length of stay (alive patients), from 9 to 7 days from CH and from 18 to 10 days from ICU. The proportion of patients transferred from CH to ICU remained stable. Understanding hospital pathways of patients is crucial to better monitor and anticipate the impact of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on health system.

Electrocardiogram abnormalities and prognosis in COVID-19

Background

COVID-19 is a major pandemic with potential cardiovascular complications. Few studies have focused on electrocardiogram (ECG) modifications in COVID-19 patients.

Method and results

We reviewed from our database all patients referred to our hospital for COVID-19 between January 1st, 2020, and December 31st, 2020: 669 patients were included and 98 patients died from COVID-19 (14.6%). We systematically analyzed ECG at admission and during hospitalization if available. ECG was abnormal at admission in 478 patients (71.4%) and was more frequently abnormal in patients who did not survive (88.8 vs. 68.5%, p < 0.001). The most common ECG abnormalities associated with death were left anterior fascicular block (39.8 vs. 20.0% among alive patients, p < 0.001), left and right bundle branch blocks (p = 0.002 and p = 0.02, respectively), S1Q3 pattern (14.3 vs. 6.0%, p = 0.006). In multivariate analysis, at admission, the presence of left bundle branch block remained statistically related to death [OR = 3.82, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.52–9.28, p < 0.01], as well as S1Q3 pattern (OR = 3.17, 95% CI: 1.38–7.03, p < 0.01) and repolarization abnormalities (OR = 2.41, 95% CI: 1.40–4.14, p < 0.01).

On ECG performed during hospitalization, the occurrence of new repolarization abnormality was significantly related to death (OR = 2.72, 95% CI: 1.14–6.54, p = 0.02), as well as a new S1Q3 pattern (OR = 13.23, 95% CI: 1.49–286.56, p = 0.03) and new supraventricular arrhythmia (OR = 3.8, 95% CI: 1.11–13.35, p = 0.03).

Conclusion

The presence of abnormal ECG during COVID-19 is frequent. Physicians should be aware of the usefulness of ECG for risk stratification during COVID-19.

Effects of mean arterial pressure target on mottling and arterial lactate normalization in patients with septic shock: a post hoc analysis of the SEPSISPAM randomized trial

Background

In patients with septic shock, the impact of the mean arterial pressure (MAP) target on the course of mottling remains uncertain. In this post hoc analysis of the SEPSISPAM trial, we investigated whether a low-MAP (65 to 70 mmHg) or a high-MAP target (80 to 85 mmHg) would affect the course of mottling and arterial lactate in patients with septic shock.

Methods

The presence of mottling was assessed every 2 h from 2 h after inclusion to catecholamine weaning. We compared mottling and lactate time course between the two MAP target groups. We evaluated the patient’s outcome according to the presence or absence of mottling.

Results

We included 747 patients, 374 were assigned to the low-MAP group and 373 to the high-MAP group. There was no difference in mottling and lactate evolution during the first 24 h between the two MAP groups. After adjustment for MAP and confounding factors, the presence of mottling ≥ 6 h during the first 24 h was associated with a significantly higher risk of death at day 28 and 90. Patients without mottling or with mottling < 6 h and lactate ≥ 2 mmol/L have a higher probability of survival than those with mottling ≥ 6 h and lactate < 2 mmol/L.

Conclusion

Compared with low MAP target, higher MAP target did not alter mottling and lactate course. Mottling lasting for more than 6 h was associated with higher mortality. Compared to arterial lactate, mottling duration appears to be a better marker of mortality.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13613-022-01053-1.

Lack of Early Etiologic Investigations in Young Sudden Cardiac Death

BACKGROUND

Since majority of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) victims die in the intensive care unit (ICU), early etiologic investigations may improve understanding of SCA and targeted prevention.

METHODS

In this prospective, population-based registry all SCA admitted alive across the 48 hospitals of the Paris area were enrolled. We investigated the extent of early etiologic work-up among young SCD cases (<45 years) eventually dying within the ICU.

RESULTS

From May 2011 to May 2018, 4,314 SCA patients were admitted alive. Among them, 3,044 died in ICU, including 484 (15.9%) young patients. SCA etiology was established in 233 (48.1%) and remained unexplained in 251 (51.9%). Among unexplained (compared to explained) cases, coronary angiography (17.9 vs. 49.4%, P<0.001), computed tomography scan (24.7 vs. 46.8%, P<0.001) and trans-thoracic echocardiography (31.1 vs. 56.7%, P<0.001) were less frequently performed. Only 22 (8.8%) patients with unexplained SCD underwent all three investigations. SCDs with unexplained status decreased significantly over the 7 years of the study period (from 62.9 to 35.2%, P=0.005). While specialized TTE and CT scan performances have increased significantly, performance of early coronary angiography did not change. Autopsy, genetic analysis and family screening were performed in only 48 (9.9%), 5 (1.0%) and 14 cases (2.9%) respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

More than half of young SCD dying in ICU remained etiologically unexplained; this was associated with a lack of early investigations. Improving early diagnosis may enhance both SCA understanding and prevention, including for relatives. Failure to identify familial conditions may result in other preventable deaths within these families.

Early echocardiography by treating physicians and outcome in the critically ill: An ancillary study from the prospective multicenter trial FROG-ICU

PURPOSE

This study aimed to investigate the association between the use of early echocardiography performed by the treating physician certified in critical care ultrasound and mortality in ICU patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

FROG-ICU was a multi-center cohort designed to investigate the outcome of critically ill patients. Of the 1359 patients admitted to centers where echocardiography was available, 372 patients underwent echocardiography during the initial 3 days.

RESULTS

Of the ICU patients admitted for cardiac disease, 47.4% underwent echocardiography, and those patients had the lowest left ventricular ejection fraction 40 [31-58] % and the lowest cardiac output 4.2 [3.2-5.7] L/min compared to patients admitted for other causes (p < 0.001 for both). One-year mortality was 36.8% and 39.9% in patients with and without echocardiography, respectively [HR 0.92 (95% CI 0.75-1.11)]. This result was confirmed after multivariable Cox regression analysis [HR 0.88 (95% CI 0.71-1.08)]. Subgroup analyses suggest that among patients admitted to ICU for cardiac disease, those managed with echocardiography had a lower risk of one-year mortality [HR 0.65 (95% CI 0.43-0.98)].

CONCLUSIONS

Early echocardiography by treating physicians was not associated with short- or long-term survival in ICU patients. In subgroups, early echocardiography improved survival in ICU patients admitted for cardiac disease.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01367093.

Echocardiography findings in COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units: a multi-national observational study (the ECHO-COVID study)

PURPOSE

Severely ill patients affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) develop circulatory failure. We aimed to report patterns of left and right ventricular dysfunction in the first echocardiography following admission to intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

Retrospective, descriptive study that collected echocardiographic and clinical information from severely ill COVID-19 patients admitted to 14 ICUs in 8 countries. Patients admitted to ICU who received at least one echocardiography between 1st February 2020 and 30th June 2021 were included. Clinical and echocardiographic data were uploaded using a secured web-based electronic database (REDCap).

RESULTS

Six hundred and seventy-seven patients were included and the first echo was performed 2 [1, 4] days after ICU admission. The median age was 65 [56, 73] years, and 71% were male. Left ventricle (LV) and/or right ventricle (RV) systolic dysfunction were found in 234 (34.5%) patients. 149 (22%) patients had LV systolic dysfunction (with or without RV dysfunction) without LV dilatation and no elevation in filling pressure. 152 (22.5%) had RV systolic dysfunction. In 517 patients with information on both paradoxical septal motion and quantitative RV size, 90 (17.4%) had acute cor pulmonale (ACP). ACP was associated with mechanical ventilation (OR > 4), pulmonary embolism (OR > 5) and increased PaCO₂. Exploratory analyses showed that patients with ACP and older age were more likely to die in hospital (including ICU).

CONCLUSION

Almost one-third of this cohort of critically ill COVID-19 patients exhibited abnormal LV and/or RV systolic function in their first echocardiography assessment. While LV systolic dysfunction appears similar to septic cardiomyopathy, RV systolic dysfunction was related to pressure overload due to positive pressure ventilation, hypercapnia and pulmonary embolism. ACP and age seemed to be associated with mortality in this cohort.

Ten Influential Point-of-Care Ultrasound Papers: 2021 in Review

The ongoing rapid expansion of point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) and its corresponding supporting literature leaves the frontline clinician in a difficult position when trying to keep abreast of the latest developments. Our group of POCUS experts has selected ten influential POCUS-related papers from the past twelve months and provided a short summary of each. Our aim is to give to emergency physicians, intensivists, and other acute care providers key information, helping them to keep up to date on rapidly evolving POCUS literature.

The role of acute hypercapnia on mortality and short-term physiology in patients mechanically ventilated for ARDS: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Purpose

Hypercapnia is frequent during mechanical ventilation for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), but its effects on morbidity and mortality are still controversial. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to explore clinical consequences of acute hypercapnia in adult patients ventilated for ARDS.

Methods

We searched Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library via the OVID platform for studies published from 1946 to 2021. “Permissive hypercapnia” defined hypercapnia in studies where the group with hypercapnia was ventilated with a protective ventilation (PV) strategy (lower V_T targeting 6 ml/kg predicted body weight) while the group without hypercapnia was managed with a non-protective ventilation (NPV); “imposed hypercapnia” defined hypercapnia in studies where hypercapnic and non-hypercapnic patients were managed with a similar ventilation strategy.

Results

Twenty-nine studies (10,101 patients) were included. Permissive hypercapnia, imposed hypercapnia under PV, and imposed hypercapnia under NPV were reported in 8, 21 and 1 study, respectively. Studies testing permissive hypercapnia reported lower mortality in hypercapnic patients receiving PV as compared to non-hypercapnic patients receiving NPV: OR = 0.26, 95% CI [0.07–0.89]. By contrast, studies reporting imposed hypercapnia under PV reported increased mortality in hypercapnic patients receiving PV as compared to non-hypercapnic patients also receiving PV: OR = 1.54, 95% CI [1.15–2.07]. There was a significant interaction between the mechanism of hypercapnia and the effect on mortality.

Conclusions

Clinical effects of hypercapnia are conflicting depending on its mechanism. Permissive hypercapnia was associated with improved mortality contrary to imposed hypercapnia under PV, suggesting a major role of PV strategy on the outcome.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00134-022-06640-1.

Right Ventricular Function in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: Impact on Outcome, Respiratory Strategy and Use of Veno-Venous Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is characterized by protein-rich alveolar edema, reduced lung compliance and severe hypoxemia. Despite some evidence of improvements in mortality over recent decades, ARDS remains a major public health problem with 30% 28-day mortality in recent cohorts. Pulmonary vascular dysfunction is one of the pivot points of the pathophysiology of ARDS, resulting in a certain degree of pulmonary hypertension, higher levels of which are associated with morbidity and mortality. Pulmonary hypertension develops as a result of endothelial dysfunction, pulmonary vascular occlusion, increased vascular tone, extrinsic vessel occlusion, and vascular remodeling. This increase in right ventricular (RV) afterload causes uncoupling between the pulmonary circulation and RV function. Without any contractile reserve, the right ventricle has no adaptive reserve mechanism other than dilatation, which is responsible for left ventricular compression, leading to circulatory failure and worsening of oxygen delivery. This state, also called severe acute cor pulmonale (ACP), is responsible for excess mortality. Strategies designed to protect the pulmonary circulation and the right ventricle in ARDS should be the cornerstones of the care and support of patients with the severest disease, in order to improve prognosis, pending stronger evidence. Acute cor pulmonale is associated with higher driving pressure (≥18 cmH₂O), hypercapnia (PaCO₂ ≥ 48 mmHg), and hypoxemia (PaO₂/FiO₂ < 150 mmHg). RV protection should focus on these three preventable factors identified in the last decade. Prone positioning, the setting of positive end-expiratory pressure, and inhaled nitric oxide (INO) can also unload the right ventricle, restore better coupling between the right ventricle and the pulmonary circulation, and correct circulatory failure. When all these strategies are insufficient, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), which improves decarboxylation and oxygenation and enables ultra-protective ventilation by decreasing driving pressure, should be discussed in seeking better control of RV afterload. This review reports the pathophysiology of pulmonary hypertension in ARDS, describes right heart function, and proposes an RV protective approach, ranging from ventilatory settings and prone positioning to INO and selection of patients potentially eligible for veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV ECMO).

Hemodynamic phenotype-based, capillary refill time-targeted resuscitation in early septic shock: The ANDROMEDA-SHOCK-2 Randomized Clinical Trial study protocol

Background:

Early reversion of sepsis-induced tissue hypoperfusion is essential for survival in septic shock. However, consensus regarding the best initial resuscitation strategy is lacking given that interventions designed for the entire population with septic shock might produce unnecessary fluid administration. This article reports the rationale, study design and analysis plan of the ANDROMEDA-2 study, which aims to determine whether a peripheral perfusion-guided strategy consisting of capillary refill time-targeted resuscitation based on clinical and hemodynamic phenotypes is associated with a decrease in a composite outcome of mortality, time to organ support cessation, and hospital length of stay compared to standard care in patients with early (< 4 hours of diagnosis) septic shock.

Methods:

The ANDROMEDA-2 study is a multicenter, multinational randomized controlled trial. In the intervention group, capillary refill time will be measured hourly for 6 hours. If abnormal, patients will enter an algorithm starting with pulse pressure assessment. Patients with pulse pressure less than 40mmHg will be tested for fluid responsiveness and receive fluids accordingly. In patients with pulse pressure > 40mmHg, norepinephrine will be titrated to maintain diastolic arterial pressure > 50mmHg. Patients who fail to normalize capillary refill time after the previous steps will be subjected to critical care echocardiography for cardiac dysfunction evaluation and subsequent management. Finally, vasopressor and inodilator tests will be performed to further optimize perfusion. A sample size of 1,500 patients will provide 88% power to demonstrate superiority of the capillary refill time-targeted strategy.

Conclusions:

If hemodynamic phenotype-based, capillary refill time-targeted resuscitation demonstrates to be a superior strategy, care processes in septic shock resuscitation can be optimized with bedside tools.

Machines that save lives in the intensive care unit: the ultrasonography machine

This article highlights the ultrasonography machine as a machine that saves lives in the intensive care unit. We review its utility in the limited resource intensive care unit and some elements of machine design that are relevant to both the constrained operating environment and the well-resourced intensive care unit. As the ultrasonography machine can only save lives, if is operated by a competent intensivist; we discuss the challenges of training the frontline clinician to become competent in critical care ultrasonography followed by a review of research that supports its use.

Hemodynamic phenotype-based, capillary refill time-targeted resuscitation in early septic shock: The ANDROMEDA-SHOCK-2 Randomized Clinical Trial study protocol

BACKGROUND

Early reversion of sepsis-induced tissue hypoperfusion is essential for survival in septic shock. However, consensus regarding the best initial resuscitation strategy is lacking given that interventions designed for the entire population with septic shock might produce unnecessary fluid administration. This article reports the rationale, study design and analysis plan of the ANDROMEDA-2 study, which aims to determine whether a peripheral perfusion-guided strategy consisting of capillary refill time-targeted resuscitation based on clinical and hemodynamic phenotypes is associated with a decrease in a composite outcome of mortality, time to organ support cessation, and hospital length of stay compared to standard care in patients with early (< 4 hours of diagnosis) septic shock.

METHODS

The ANDROMEDA-2 study is a multicenter, multinational randomized controlled trial. In the intervention group, capillary refill time will be measured hourly for 6 hours. If abnormal, patients will enter an algorithm starting with pulse pressure assessment. Patients with pulse pressure less than 40mmHg will be tested for fluid responsiveness and receive fluids accordingly. In patients with pulse pressure > 40mmHg, norepinephrine will be titrated to maintain diastolic arterial pressure > 50mmHg. Patients who fail to normalize capillary refill time after the previous steps will be subjected to critical care echocardiography for cardiac dysfunction evaluation and subsequent management. Finally, vasopressor and inodilator tests will be performed to further optimize perfusion. A sample size of 1,500 patients will provide 88% power to demonstrate superiority of the capillary refill time-targeted strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

If hemodynamic phenotype-based, capillary refill time-targeted resuscitation demonstrates to be a superior strategy, care processes in septic shock resuscitation can be optimized with bedside tools.

Identifying early indicators of secondary peritonitis in critically ill patients with cirrhosis

Ascitic fluid infection (AFI) is a life-threatening complication of cirrhosis. We aimed to identify early indicators of secondary peritonitis (SP), which requires emergency surgery, and to describe the outcomes of SP and spontaneous bacterial/fungal peritonitis (SBFP). Adults with cirrhosis and AFI admitted to 16 university or university-affiliated ICUs in France between 2002 and 2017 were studied retrospectively. Cases were identified by searching the hospital databases for relevant ICD-10 codes and hospital charts for AFI. Logistic multivariate regression was performed to identify factors associated with SP. Secondary outcomes were short- and long-term mortality and survivors' functional outcomes. Of 178 included patients (137 men and 41 women; mean age, 58 ± 11 years), 21 (11.8%) had SP, confirmed by surgery in 16 cases and by abdominal computed tomography in 5 cases. Time to diagnosis exceeded 24 h in 7/21 patients with SP. By multivariate analysis, factors independently associated with SP were ascitic leukocyte count > 10,000/mm³ (OR 3.70; 95%CI 1.38-9.85; P = 0.009) and absence of laboratory signs of decompensated cirrhosis (OR 4.53; 95%CI 1.30-15.68; P = 0.017). The 1-year mortality rates in patients with SBFP and SP were 81.0% and 77.5%, respectively (Log-rank test, P = 0.92). Patients with SP vs. SBFP had no differences in 1-year functional outcomes. This multicenter retrospective study identified two indicators of SP as opposed to SBFP in patients with cirrhosis. Using these indicators may help to provide early surgical treatment.

Seasonal burden of severe influenza virus infection in the critically ill patients, using the Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris clinical data warehouse: a pilot study

Purpose

At the critical care level, the flu surveillance system is limited in France, with heterogeneous regional modalities of implementation.

Materials, patients and methods

We aimed at assessing the relevance of the Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) clinical data warehouse for estimating the burden of the influenza epidemic on medical adult critical care units of the AP-HP, and outcome of patients during the flu season 2017–2018. This exploratory multi-site epidemiological study comprised all consecutive adult stays (n = 320) in 18 medical intensive care units (ICU) or intermediate care wards (ICW) for probable or confirmed Influenza virus infection during the 2017–2018 flu season.

Results

Patients admitted to ICU/ICW had low vaccination coverage (21%), required life support in 60% of cases, stayed in the ICU for a median of 8 days, and had high 28-day mortality rate (19.7%; 95% confidence interval 15.5–24.5). Early prognostic factors included age, core temperature, the acute organ failures score, and the early administration of antiviral therapy.

Conclusions

Data directly extracted from the electronic medical records stored in the data warehouse provide detailed clinical, care pathway and prognosis information. The real-time availability should enable to detect and assess the burden of the most severe cases. By a firmer and more acute monitoring and adjustment of care and patient management, hospitals could generate more ICU/ICW capacities, sensitize their emergency department and contribute to the recommendations from health authorities. This pilot study is of particular relevance in the context of emerging epidemics of severe acute respiratory diseases.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13613-021-00884-8.

Acute kidney injury in SARS-CoV2-related pneumonia ICU patients: a retrospective multicenter study

BACKGROUND

While acute kidney injury (AKI) is frequent in severe SARS-CoV2-related pneumonia ICU patients, few data are still available about its risk factors.

METHODS

Retrospective observational study performed in four university affiliated hospitals in Paris. AKI was defined according to the KIDGO guidelines. Factors associated with AKI were picked up using multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression. Independent risk factors of day 28 mortality were assessed using Cox model.

RESULTS

379 patients (median age 62 [53,69], 77% of male) were included. Half of the patients had AKI (n = 195, 52%) including 58 patients (15%) with AKI stage 1, 44 patients (12%) with AKI stage 2, and 93 patients (25% with AKI stage 3). Chronic kidney disease (OR 7.41; 95% CI 2.98-18.4), need for invasive mechanical ventilation at day 1 (OR 4.83; 95% CI 2.26-10.3), need for vasopressors at day 1 (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.05-4.21) were associated with increased risk of AKI. Day 28 mortality in the cohort was 26.4% and was higher in patients with AKI (37.4 vs. 14.7%, P < 0.001). Neither AKI (HR 1.35; 95% CI 0.78-2.32) nor AKI stage were associated with mortality (HR [95% CI] for stage 1, 2 and 3 when compared to no AKI of, respectively, 1.02 [0.49-2.10], 1.73 [0.81-3.68] and 1.42 [0.78-2.58]).

CONCLUSION

In this large cohort of SARS-CoV2-related pneumonia patients admitted to the ICU, AKI was frequent, mostly driven by preexisting chronic kidney disease and life sustaining therapies, with unclear adjusted relationship with day 28 outcome.