Bayesian methods for meta-analysis of causal relationships estimated using genetic instrumental variables

Genetic markers can be used as instrumental variables, in an analogous way to randomization in a clinical trial, to estimate the causal relationship between a phenotype and an outcome variable. Our purpose is to extend the existing methods for such Mendelian randomization studies to the context of multiple genetic markers measured in multiple studies, based on the analysis of individual participant data. First, for a single genetic marker in one study, we show that the usual ratio of coefficients approach can be reformulated as a regression with heterogeneous error in the explanatory variable. This can be implemented using a Bayesian approach, which is next extended to include multiple genetic markers. We then propose a hierarchical model for undertaking a meta-analysis of multiple studies, in which it is not necessary that the same genetic markers are measured in each study. This provides an overall estimate of the causal relationship between the phenotype and the outcome, and an assessment of its heterogeneity across studies. As an example, we estimate the causal relationship of blood concentrations of C-reactive protein on fibrinogen levels using data from 11 studies. These methods provide a flexible framework for efficient estimation of causal relationships derived from multiple studies. Issues discussed include weak instrument bias, analysis of binary outcome data such as disease risk, missing genetic data, and the use of haplotypes.

VITATOPS, the VITAmins TO prevent stroke trial: rationale and design of a randomised trial of B-vitamin therapy in patients with recent transient ischaemic attack or stroke (NCT00097669) (ISRCTN74743444)

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies suggest that raised plasma concentrations of total homocysteine (tHcy) may be a common, causal and treatable risk factor for atherothromboembolic ischaemic stroke, dementia and depression. Although tHcy can be lowered effectively with small doses of folic acid, vitamin B(12) and vitamin B(6), it is not known whether lowering tHcy, by means of B vitamin therapy, can prevent stroke and other major atherothromboembolic vascular events.

AIM

To determine whether the addition of B-vitamin supplements (folic acid 2 mg, B(6) 25 mg, B(12) 500 microg) to best medical and surgical management will reduce the combined incidence of stroke, myocardial infarction (MI) and vascular death in patients with recent stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) of the brain or eye.

DESIGN

A prospective, international, multicentre, randomised, double blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial.

SETTING

One hundred and four medical centres in 20 countries on five continents.

SUBJECTS

Eight thousand (6600 recruited as of 5 January, 2006) patients with recent (<7 months) stroke (ischaemic or haemorrhagic) or TIA (brain or eye).

RANDOMISATION

Randomisation and data collection are performed by means of a central telephone service or secure internet site.

INTERVENTION

One tablet daily of either placebo or B vitamins (folic acid 2 mg, B(6) 25 mg, B(12) 500 mug).

PRIMARY OUTCOME

The composite of stroke, MI or death from any vascular cause, whichever occurs first. Outcome and serious adverse events are adjudicated blinded to treatment allocation.

SECONDARY OUTCOMES

TIA, unstable angina, revascularisation procedures, dementia, depression. STATISTICAL POWER: With 8000 patients followed up for a median of 2 years and an annual incidence of the primary outcome of 8% among patients assigned placebo, the study will have at least 80% power to detect a relative reduction of 15% in the incidence of the primary outcome among patients assigned B vitamins (to 6.8%/year), applying a two-tailed level of significance of 5%.

CONCLUSION

VITATOPS aims to recruit and follow-up 8000 patients between 1998 and 2008, and provide a reliable estimate of the safety and effectiveness of folic acid, vitamin B(12), and vitamin B(6) supplementation in reducing recurrent serious vascular events among a wide range of patients with TIA and stroke throughout the world.

When the patient fails to respond to treatment: TIAs that go on, and on

Most transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) stop, with or without treatment, but some are followed by stroke within days or longer. But if the TIAs do not stop then the diagnosis must be reviewed (are they really TIAs or could they be migraine or epilepsy?), and if they are TIAs, what are they caused by (atherothromboembolism, embolism from the heart, etc)? With this information, both the medical and any surgical treatment can be optimised, even though one must accept that the randomised controlled trials mostly have not addressed the particular issue of continuing TIAs.

Rate, degree, and predictors of recovery from disability following ischemic stroke

OBJECTIVE

To determine the rate, degree, and predictors of recovery from disabling ischemic stroke.

METHODS

Patients with ischemic stroke enrolled in the Management of Atherothrombosis With Clopidogrel in High-Risk Patients (MATCH) study underwent long-term prospective assessment of their modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score. Disability (functionally dependent state) was defined as mRS > or = 3, and recovery (functionally independent state) was defined as mRS < 3. The timing and the independent predictors of recovery were determined using a Cox proportional hazards multiple regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of 7,599 patients enrolled with ischemic stroke or TIA, 1,662 (21.8%) were disabled (mRS > or = 3) at baseline (median of 14 [0 to 96] days after stroke onset). Disability was moderate (mRS 3) in 931 (56%) patients, severe (mRS 4) in 691 (42%), and very severe (mRS 5) in 40 (2%). By 18 months, 877 (52.8%, 95% CI 50% to 55%) patients had recovered, 589 (63%, 60% to 66%) with moderate disability, 281 (41%, 37% to 44%) with severe disability, and 7 (17%, 7 to 33%) with very severe disability. Median time to recovery was 3 months for patients with moderate disability and 18 months for severe disability; 82.5% of severely disabled patients remained so at 18 months. Predictors of recovery were moderate disability (mRS 3) at baseline compared with severe (mRS 4: hazard ratio [HR] 2.13, 1.86 to 2.44) or very severe disabling stroke (HR 5.88, 2.86 to 12.5); younger women (aged <65 years, compared with > or =75 years; HR 1.85, 1.47 to 2.33); decreasing time (days) between the qualifying event and the baseline assessment (HR 1.01, 1.01 to 1.02); and the absence of previous ischemic stroke (HR 1.61, 1.35 to 1.92), concurrent peripheral artery disease (HR 1.61, 1.23 to 2.13), or diabetes (HR 1.30, 1.10 to 1.54).

CONCLUSIONS

Half of patients with disabling ischemic stroke recovered within 18 months, and recovery was greatest within 6 months. Significant predictors of recovery included the severity of the index stroke and no history of ischemic stroke, peripheral artery disease, or diabetes.

Time frame and predictors of recovery from disability following recurrent ischemic stroke

OBJECTIVE

To assess the rate, degree, and predictors of recovery from a disabled to nondisabled state in patients disabled after recurrent ischemic stroke.

METHODS

Patients with ischemic stroke enrolled in the Management of Atherothrombosis with Clopidogrel in High Risk Patients (MATCH) Study underwent prospective assessment of their modified Rankin score (mRS) at 1, 3, 6, 12, and 18 months after enrollment and after recurrent stroke. Patients disabled (defined as mRS > or = 3) after recurrence were analyzed for recovery (defined as mRS < 3) during the 18 months, and predictors of recovery were sought using a Cox proportional-hazard multiple regression analysis.

RESULTS

Three hundred forty-five (54%) of 637 patients were disabled after recurrent ischemic stroke; 115 (33%) patients had been disabled and 230 (66%) nondisabled before stroke recurrence. At recurrence, the degree of disability was moderate (mRS 3) in 135 (39%) patients, severe (mRS 4) in 139 (40%), and very severe (mRS 5) in 71 (21%). After 12 months' median follow-up, 117 (34%, 95% CI: 29 to 39%) had recovered: 68 (50%, 42 to 59%) of 135 moderately disabled, 45 (32%, 25 to 41%) of 139 severely disabled, and 4 (6%, 2 to 14%) of 71 very severely disabled; 70 (20.3%) patients died. From recurrence, median time to recovery was 6 months (mRS 3) and 18 months (mRS 4); 94% with very severe disability had not recovered at 18 months. Independent predictors of recovery were moderate disability at recurrence (mRS 3) compared with severe (mRS 4: hazard ratio [HR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.04 to 2.3) or very severe disability (mRS 5: HR 7.6; 2.7 to 20) and a nondisabled vs disabled state before recurrence (HR 4.0; 2.3 to 6.8).

CONCLUSIONS

The rate of recovery from recurrent ischemic stroke was greatest in the first 6 months; one-third of patients recovered within 12 months. The significant predictors of recovery were a nondisabled state before recurrence and increasing severity of the recurrent stroke.

Association between phosphodiesterase 4D gene and ischaemic stroke

BACKGROUND

An association between the phosphodiesterase 4D (PDE4D) gene and risk of ischaemic stroke in an Icelandic population has been suggested by the deCODE group.

METHODS

A case-control study of 151 hospitalised patients with first-ever ischaemic stroke and 164 randomly selected age-matched and sex-matched community controls was conducted. PDE4D genotypes for the six single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously reported to be independently associated with stroke were determined, common haplotypes were inferred using the expectation-maximisation algorithm, and SNP and haplotype associations with stroke were examined. A meta-analysis of published studies examining the association between PDE4D and stroke was also carried out.

RESULTS

Our study of Australian patients with stroke showed an independent association between ischaemic stroke and PDE4D SNP 89 (CC: odds ratio (OR) 5.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02 to 30.19; CA: OR 1.68, 95% CI 0.96 to 2.96; AA: OR 1 (reference)), SNP 87 (CC: OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.08 to 4.20; TC: OR 1.64, 95% CI 0.89 to 3.00; TT: OR 1 (reference)) and SNP 83 (TT: OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.08 to 4.32; TC: OR 1.37, 95% CI 0.77 to 2.43; CC: OR 1 (reference)), and between ischaemic stroke and PDE4D haplotypes at SNP 89-87-83 (A-C-C: OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.15 to 3.96; C-C-T: OR 2.25, 95% CI 1.29 to 3.92), but no association between ischaemic stroke and PDE4D SNP 56, SNP 45 or SNP 41, or with PDE4D haplotypes at SNP 56-45-41. A meta-analysis of nine case-control studies (including our current results) of 3808 stroke cases and 4377 controls confirmed a significant association between stroke and PDE SNP 87 (pooled p = 0.002), SNP 83 (0.003) and SNP 41 (0.003). However, there was statistical heterogeneity (p < 0.1) among the studies in the direction of association for each of the individual SNPs tested.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results and the pooled analyses from all the studies indicate a strong association between PDE4D and ischaemic stroke. This strengthens the evidence that PDE4D plays a key part in the pathogenesis of ischaemic stroke. Heterogeneity among the studies in the direction of association between individual SNPs and stroke suggests that the SNPs tested are in linkage disequilibrium with the causal allele(s).

Enhanced antiplatelet effect of clopidogrel in patients whose platelets are least inhibited by aspirin: a randomized crossover trial

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine whether adding clopidogrel to aspirin in patients at high risk of future cardiovascular events would suppress laboratory measures of the antiplatelet effects of aspirin; and have greater platelet inhibitory effects in patients with the least inhibition of platelets by aspirin.

METHODS

We performed a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover trial, comparing clopidogrel 75 mg day(-1) versus placebo, in 36 aspirin-treated patients with symptomatic objectively confirmed peripheral arterial disease.

RESULTS

The addition of clopidogrel to aspirin did not suppress platelet aggregation induced by arachidonic acid, urinary 11 dehydro thromboxane B2 concentrations, or soluble markers of platelet activation markers (P-selectin, CD40-ligand) and inflammation (high sensitivity serum C-reactive protein, interleukin-6). Clopidogrel significantly inhibited platelet aggregation induced by ADP (reduction 26.2%; 95% CI: 21.3-31.1%, P < 0.0001) and collagen (reduction 6.2%; 95% CI: 3.2-9.3%, P = 0.0003). The greatest inhibition of collagen-induced platelet aggregation by clopidogrel was seen in patients with the least inhibition of arachidonic acid induced aggregation by aspirin [lower tertile of arachidonic acid-induced platelet aggregation: 2.8% (95% CI: -0.8 to 6.3%) reduction in mean collagen-induced aggregation by clopidogrel; middle tertile: 4.0% (95% CI: 0.4-7.6%); upper tertile 12.6% (95% CI: 4.5-20.8%); P-value for interaction 0.01].

CONCLUSIONS

The greatest platelet inhibitory effect of clopidogrel occurs in patients with the least inhibition of arachidonic acid-induced platelet aggregation by aspirin. This raises the possibility that the clinical benefits of adding clopidogrel to aspirin may be greatest in patients whose platelets are least inhibited by aspirin. Confirmation in clinical outcome studies may allow these patients to be targeted with antiplatelet drugs that inhibit the ADP receptor, thereby overcoming the problem of laboratory aspirin resistance.

Preventable stroke and stroke prevention

Stroke is a major cause of death and disability in the world. The main causes of stroke are atherothromboembolism and cardiogenic embolism. The main causal and treatable risk factors for atherothromboembolic ischemic stroke are increasing blood pressure (BP), increasing cholesterol, cigarette smoking and diabetes; and the main risk factors for cardiogenic ischemic stroke are atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischemic heart disease. Strategies to reduce the incidence of stroke include prevention of first-ever and recurrent stroke, and treatment of patients with acute stroke to reduce death and disability. The two main strategies of stroke prevention are the 'population' (or 'mass') approach and the 'high risk' approach. The 'population' approach aims to reduce stroke by lowering the prevalence and mean level of causal risk factors in the community, by means of public education and government legislation. The 'high risk' approach aims to reduce stroke by identifying individuals at high risk of stroke, and lowering their risk by means of optimal medical therapies. Level 1 evidence from randomized controlled trials indicates that effective treatments for high risk patients include control of causal risk factors (lowering BP, lowering blood cholesterol), antithrombotic therapy (antiplatelet therapy with aspirin, clopidogrel, or the combination of aspirin and dipyridamole for patients in sinus rhythm, and anticoagulation with warfarin or ximelagatran for patients in AF) and, where appropriate, carotid revascularization for patients with severe carotid stenosis.

Results of a Multicentre, Randomised Controlled Trial of Intra-Arterial Urokinase in the Treatment of Acute Posterior Circulation Ischaemic Stroke

BACKGROUND

Patients with ischaemic stroke due to occlusion of the basilar or vertebral arteries may develop a rapid deterioration in neurological status leading to coma and often to death. While intra-arterial thrombolysis may be used in this context, no randomised controlled data exist to support its safety or efficacy.

METHODS

Randomised controlled trial of intra-arterial urokinase within 24 h of symptom onset in patients with stroke and angiographic evidence of posterior circulation vascular occlusion.

RESULTS

Sixteen patients were randomised, and there was some imbalance between groups, with more severe strokes occurring in the treatment arm. A good outcome was observed in 4 of 8 patients who received intra-arterial urokinase compared with 1 of 8 patients in the control group.

CONCLUSIONS

These results support the need for a large-scale study to establish the efficacy of intra-arterial thrombolysis for acute basilar artery occlusion.

Protein Z Gene Polymorphisms, Protein Z Concentrations, and Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose— We aimed to determine whether A-13G or G79A polymorphisms of the protein Z gene that have been reported to be an important determinant of blood concentrations of protein Z are associated with risk of ischemic stroke in a broad range of stroke patients and controls.

Methods— We conducted a case control study of 151 hospital cases of first-ever ischemic stroke and 164 randomly selected community controls. Protein Z genotype was determined for the A-13G promoter polymorphism and the G79A intron F polymorphism, and plasma protein Z concentrations were measured during the first 7 days and at 3 to 6 months after the acute stroke event.

Results— Geometric mean concentrations of protein Z measured within 7 days of acute stroke were significantly higher in cases compared with controls (1.51 μg/mL versus 1.13 μg/mL; P <0·0001). Protein Z concentrations were highest among subjects with the A-13G AA genotype, intermediate among those with the AG genotype, and lowest among those with the GG genotype (1.39 μg/mL versus 1.05 μg/mL versus 0.76 μg/mL; P <0.0001); and highest among those with the G79A GG genotype, intermediate among those with the GA genotype, and lowest among those with the AA genotype (1.47 μg/mL versus 1.13 μg/mL versus 0.66 μg/mL; P <0.0001). The prevalence of A-13G and G79A genotypes was not significantly different between cases of ischemic stroke and controls. However, compared with the G79A GG genotype (reference), the odds of ischemic stroke was progressively lower for the heterozygote GA (odds ratio [OR], 0.83; 95% CI, 0.52 to 1.33) and the homozygote AA genotype (OR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.20 to 1.98). A pooled analysis showed that compared with the G79A GG genotype (reference), the odds of ischemic stroke was progressively lower for the heterozygote GA (OR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.57 to 1.07) and the homozygote AA genotype (OR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.69).

Conclusion— The consistency of the association between protein Z genotypes, blood concentrations of protein Z, and ischemic stroke, determined using 2 different methods that have different sources of bias strengthens the evidence that increased blood concentrations of protein Z concentrations are associated causally with an increased risk of ischemic stroke.

Sustained Homocysteine-Lowering Effect over Time of Folic Acid-Based Multivitamin Therapy in Stroke Patients despite Increasing Folate Status in the Population

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

It is uncertain what impact increasing voluntary folate fortification may be having on the statistical power of randomized trials testing the homocysteine hypothesis of atherothrombosis. The objective of this study was to determine whether there has been a change in folate status between 1998 and 2002 in stroke patients randomized into the VITAmins TO Prevent Stroke (VITATOPS) Study at a single center in Perth, Australia, and what impact this may have had on the magnitude of the homocysteine-lowering effect achieved over time with folic acid-based multivitamin therapy.

METHODS

We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study involving 285 patients with stroke or transient ischemic attack who were recruited between 1998 and 2002 and randomized to long-term folic acid 2.0 mg/day, pyridoxine 25 mg/day and cobalamin 0.5 mg/day (active VITATOPS medication) or placebo. Fasting plasma total homocysteine, red cell folate, serum cobalamin and serum pyridoxine levels were measured at baseline and 6 months, and the change in blood levels over 4 time quartiles and differences in levels between the two randomized treatments were examined.

RESULTS

Between 1998 and 2002, there was a significant rise in baseline mean red cell folate levels over 4 time quartiles among the entire stroke cohort (723.3, 780.1, 922.6 and 1,023.7 nmol/l in the first, second, third and fourth quartiles, respectively; p < 0.0001), but this was not associated with a spontaneous reduction in mean baseline total homocysteine levels during the same time period (12.7, 14.3, 12.1 and 12.8 micromol/l in the first, second, third and fourth quartiles, respectively; p = 0.55). The homocysteine-lowering effect of the active VITATOPS trial medication at 6 months after randomization also did not change significantly between 1998 and 2002 (difference between randomized groups: -4.1, -4.1, -3.1 and -3.6 micromol/l in the first, second, third and fourth quartiles, respectively; p = 0.56).

CONCLUSIONS

The homocysteine-lowering effect of the active VITATOPS trial medication has not attenuated significantly in the past 5 years despite increasing voluntary fortification of foods with folic acid as reflected by a progressive rise in baseline folate status. These data suggest that in the continuing absence of a program of mandatory folate fortification of food in populations served by centers participating in the VITATOPS trial, the study will remain adequately powered to test the homocysteine-lowering hypothesis for which it was designed.

Homocysteine-Lowering Treatment With Folic Acid, Cobalamin, and Pyridoxine Does Not Reduce Blood Markers of Inflammation, Endothelial Dysfunction, or Hypercoagulability in Patients With Previous Transient Ischemic Attack or Stroke

Background and Purpose— Epidemiological and laboratory studies suggest that increasing concentrations of plasma homocysteine (total homocysteine [tHcy]) accelerate cardiovascular disease by promoting vascular inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and hypercoagulability.

Methods— We conducted a randomized controlled trial in 285 patients with recent transient ischemic attack or stroke to examine the effect of lowering tHcy with folic acid 2 mg, vitamin B 12 0.5 mg, and vitamin B 6 25 mg compared with placebo on laboratory markers of vascular inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and hypercoagulability.

Results— At 6 months after randomization, there was no significant difference in blood concentrations of markers of vascular inflammation (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein [ P =0.32]; soluble CD40L [ P =0.33]; IL-6 [ P =0.77]), endothelial dysfunction (vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 [ P =0.27]; intercellular adhesion molecule-1 [ P =0.08]; von Willebrand factor [ P =0.92]), and hypercoagulability (P-selectin [ P =0.33]; prothrombin fragment 1 and 2 [ P =0.81]; D-dimer [ P =0.88]) among patients assigned vitamin therapy compared with placebo despite a 3.7-μmol/L (95% CI, 2.7 to 4.7) reduction in total homocysteine (tHcy).

Conclusions— Lowering tHcy by 3.7 μmol/L with folic acid-based multivitamin therapy does not significantly reduce blood concentrations of the biomarkers of inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, or hypercoagulability measured in our study. The possible explanations for our findings are: (1) these biomarkers are not sensitive to the effects of lowering tHcy (eg, multiple risk factor interventions may be required); (2) elevated tHcy causes cardiovascular disease by mechanisms other than the biomarkers measured; or (3) elevated tHcy is a noncausal marker of increased vascular risk.

Collagen platelet receptor polymorphisms integrin alpha2beta1 C807T and GPVI Q317L and risk of ischemic stroke

Several polymorphisms of integrin alpha2beta1 and glycoprotein (GP) VI that may modify platelet-collagen interactions or subsequent signaling have been described. We conducted a case-control study involving 180 stroke patients and 172 controls to determine whether the alpha2 C807T and GPVI Q317L polymorphisms were associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke. We found no statistically significant differences in the distribution of alpha2 C807T and GPVI Q317L in patients and controls overall or after stratification by etiological subtype. The GPVI 317QQ genotype was found to be over-represented in a subgroup of patients >/=60 years compared to corresponding controls. However, this association did not remain significant after adjustment for other cardiovascular risk factors. Our results do not support a role for the integrin alpha2 C807T and GPVI Q317L polymorphisms in the development of first-ever ischemic stroke. However, larger studies are required to confirm this.

Homocysteine levels in patients with stroke: clinical relevance and therapeutic implications

High plasma levels of the amino acid homocysteine have been implicated in the development of vascular diseases, including stroke. Elevated plasma levels of total homocysteine (tHcy) above 15 micromol/L are present in less than 5% of the general population, but in as many as 50% of patients with stroke (and other atherothromboembolic vascular diseases). However, it remains uncertain whether a high tHcy level is a causal risk factor for stroke and should be lowered, or is a marker of another factor associated with stroke (e.g. acute tissue damage or tissue repair after an acute vascular event) and therefore should not be lowered. Plasma levels of tHcy can be lowered effectively by folic acid, vitamin B(6) and vitamin B(12) supplementation, and controlled trials have shown some beneficial effects on surrogate markers of vascular function. However, these markers are not established vascular risk factors or valid predictors of 'hard' clinical vascular outcome events. Until it has been shown in large randomised trials [such as the ongoing Vitamins to Prevent Stroke Study (VITATOPS) and the Vitamins in Stroke Prevention (VISP) study] that multivitamin therapy reduces the rate of recurrent stroke and other serious vascular events in patients with prior stroke or transient ischaemic attack, widespread screening for, and treatment of, high tHcy levels remains experimental and cannot be recommended.

Initial clinical and demographic predictors of swallowing impairment following acute stroke

Swallowing impairment (dysphagia) is a frequent sequela of acute stroke; however, the ability to accurately detect dysphagia at the bedside and predict which patients may be at risk of dysphagic complications, such as aspiration, remains limited. Despite this, clinical assessment batteries continue to be the first point of assessment for acute dysphagia. We examined the predictive value of clinical factors suggestive of swallowing dysfunction in an attempt to identify the important independent clinical signs at initial presentation that are associated with dysphagia, aspiration, and the combined variable aspiration and/or penetration (ASPEN) in acute stroke patients. For the purposes of this study, dysphagia was defined as a disorder of bolus flow. Aspiration was defined as entry of swallowed material below the level of the true vocal cords which was not expectorated. The clinical items identified as independent predictors of dysphagia (measured radiographically) at initial presentation were age > 70 years, male gender, disabling stroke (Barthel score < 60), palatal weakness or asymmetry, incomplete oral clearance, and impaired pharyngeal response (cough/gurgle). The clinical predictors of aspiration (determined radiographically) at initial presentation were delayed oral transit and incomplete oral clearance. Incorporating clinical signs, such as those identified by this study, into clinical assessments of swallowing impairment may increase their predictive utility.

Inherited thrombophilia in ischemic stroke and its pathogenic subtypes

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

One or more of the inherited thrombophilias may be causal risk factor for a proportion of ischemic strokes, but few studies have addressed this association or the association between thrombophilia and pathogenic subtypes of stroke.

METHODS

We conducted a case-control study of 219 hospital cases with a first-ever ischemic stroke and 205 randomly selected community control subjects stratified by age, sex, and postal code. With the use of established criteria, cases of stroke were classified by pathogenic subtype in a blinded fashion. The prevalence of conventional vascular risk factors; fasting plasma levels of protein C, protein S, antithrombin III; and genetic tests for the factor V Leiden and the prothrombin 20210A mutation were determined in cases and control subjects.

RESULTS

The prevalence of any thrombophilia was 14.7% (95% CI, 9.9% to 19.5%) among cases and 11.7% (95% CI, 7.4% to 17.0%) among control subjects (OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 0.7% to 2.3%). The prevalence of individual thrombophilias among cases ranged from 0.9% (95% CI, 0.1% to 3.4%) for protein S deficiency to 5.2% (95% CI, 0.3% to 9.1%) for antithrombin III deficiency; among control subjects, the prevalence ranged from 1.0% (95% CI, 0.1% to 3.6%) for protein S deficiency to 4.1% (95% CI, 0.2% to 7.8%) for antithrombin III deficiency. There were no significant differences in the prevalence of thrombophilia between cases and control subjects or between pathogenic subtypes of ischemic stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

One in 7 patients with first-ever acute ischemic stroke will test positive for one of the inherited thrombophilias, but the relation is likely to be coincidental rather than causal in almost all cases, irrespective of the pathogenic subtype of the ischemic stroke. These results suggest that routine testing for thrombophilia in most patients with acute ischemic stroke may be unnecessary. Whether the thrombophilias may still be important in younger patients with ischemic stroke or in predicting complications (eg, venous thrombosis) and stroke outcome remains uncertain.

Current oral antiplatelet agents to prevent atherothrombosis

Aspirin inhibits platelet activation by irreversibly inhibiting platelet cyclooxygenase and thromboxane production, and reduces the odds of serious vascular events (stroke, myocardial infarction or vascular death) by about one quarter in a range of patients with symptomatic atherosclerosis at high risk of a subsequent event. The adenosine diphosphate (ADP) receptor antagonists clopidogrel and ticlopidine are significantly more effective than aspirin in high-risk vascular patients, further reducing the odds of serious vascular events by about 10% (95% CI 2-19%) over the benefit provided by aspirin. The ADP receptor antagonists are also associated with a significant 30% reduction in the odds of gastrointestinal haemorrhage (odds ratio 0.71, 95% CI 0.59-0.86). Ticlopidine increases the odds of skin rash and of diarrhoea by more than twofold compared with aspirin, whereas clopidogrel is associated with a one-third increase in the odds of rash and of diarrhoea. Only ticlopidine increases the odds of neutropenia compared with aspirin. There is no clear evidence as yet for the benefit of dipyridamole or an oral GP IIb/IIIa receptor antagonist as single antiplatelet agents in atherothrombotic patients. Amongst high vascular risk patients, the combination of low-dose aspirin and high-dose dipyridamole is associated with about a 10% (95% CI 0-20%) reduction in the odds of a serious vascular event. Most of this reduction is due to a 23% reduction in non-fatal stroke. The size of this estimate continues to be investigated in an ongoing study of patients with transient ischaemic attack and stroke. The combined use of aspirin and ticlopidine is markedly superior to heparin, warfarin and aspirin for reducing thrombotic complications after coronary artery stenting. Clopidogrel plus aspirin has been shown to be safer than aspirin and ticlopidine in coronary stenting, and is now under long-term evaluation in unstable angina, and other conditions in which patients are at high risk of atherothrombotic events.