Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems

The development of ensemble-based 'probabilistic' climate forecasts is often seen as a promising avenue for climate scientists. Ensemble-based methods allow scientists to produce more informative, nuanced forecasts of climate variables by reflecting uncertainty from various sources, such as similarity to observation and model uncertainty. However, these developments present challenges as well as opportunities, particularly surrounding issues of experimental design and interpretation of forecast results. This paper discusses different approaches and attempts to set out what climateprediction.net and other large ensemble, complex model experiments might contribute to this research programme.

Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions

Over the last 20 years, climate models have been developed to an impressive level of complexity. They are core tools in the study of the interactions of many climatic processes and justifiably provide an additional strand in the argument that anthropogenic climate change is a critical global problem. Over a similar period, there has been growing interest in the interpretation and probabilistic analysis of the output of computer models; particularly, models of natural systems. The results of these areas of research are being sought and utilized in the development of policy, in other academic disciplines, and more generally in societal decision making. Here, our focus is solely on complex climate models as predictive tools on decadal and longer time scales. We argue for a reassessment of the role of such models when used for this purpose and a reconsideration of strategies for model development and experimental design. Building on more generic work, we categorize sources of uncertainty as they relate to this specific problem and discuss experimental strategies available for their quantification. Complex climate models, as predictive tools for many variables and scales, cannot be meaningfully calibrated because they are simulating a never before experienced state of the system; the problem is one of extrapolation. It is therefore inappropriate to apply any of the currently available generic techniques which utilize observations to calibrate or weight models to produce forecast probabilities for the real world. To do so is misleading to the users of climate science in wider society. In this context, we discuss where we derive confidence in climate forecasts and present some concepts to aid discussion and communicate the state-of-the-art. Effective communication of the underlying assumptions and sources of forecast uncertainty is critical in the interaction between climate science, the impacts communities and society in general.

Antiremodeling agents influence osteoblast activity differently in modeling and remodeling sites of canine rib

Antiremodeling agents reduce bone loss in part through direct actions on osteoclasts. Their effects on osteoblasts and bone formation activity are less clear and may differ at sites undergoing modeling vs. remodeling. Skeletally mature intact beagles, 1-2 years old at the start of the study, were treated daily with clinically relevant doses of alendronate (0.10 or 0.20 mg/kg), risedronate (0.05 or 0.10 mg/kg), raloxifene (0.50 mg/kg), or vehicle (1 mL/kg). Dynamic bone formation parameters were histologically assessed on periosteal, endocortical/trabecular, and intracortical bone envelopes of the rib. Raloxifene significantly increased periosteal surface mineral apposition rate (MAR), a measure of osteoblast activity, compared to all other treatments (+108 to +175%, P < 0.02), while having no significant effect on MAR at either the endocortical/trabecular or intracortical envelope. Alendronate (both 0.10 and 0.20 doses) and risedronate (only the 0.10 dose) significantly (P < or = 0.05) suppressed MAR on the endocortical/trabecular envelope, while none of the bisphosphonate doses significantly altered MAR at either the periosteal or intracortical envelopes compared to vehicle. Based on these results, we conclude that (1) at clinically relevant doses the two classes of antiremodeling agents, bisphosphonates and selective estrogen receptor modulators, exert differential effects on osteoblast activity in the canine rib and (2) this effect depends on whether modeling or remodeling is the predominant mechanism of bone formation.

Differential bone and muscle recovery following hindlimb unloading in skeletally mature male rats

This study was designed to track the recovery of bone and muscle properties after 28 days of hindlimb unloading (HU) in skeletally mature male rats in order to quantify the degree and timing of the expected mismatch between bone and muscle properties. Outcome variables were in vivo plantarflexor peak isometric torque and proximal tibial volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD). Proximal tibia vBMD was significantly lower than age-matched controls (-7.8%) after 28 days of HU, continued to decrease through day 28 of recovery (-10%) and did not recover until day 84 of recovery. Plantarflexor peak isometric torque was significantly reduced after 28 days of HU (-13.9%). Further reductions of isometric torque occurred after 7 days of recovery (-15%), but returned to age-matched control levels by day 14. The functional relationship between bone and muscle (vBMD/isometric torque) tended to increase after 28 days of HU (+7.8%), remained elevated after 7 days of reloading (+9.1%) and was significantly lower than age-matched controls on day 28 (-13.6%). This relatively rapid return of muscle strength, coupled with continued depression of bone density at the proximal tibia metaphysis, may increase the risk for skeletal injury during recovery from prolonged periods of reduced mechanical loading.

Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases

The range of possibilities for future climate evolution needs to be taken into account when planning climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This requires ensembles of multi-decadal simulations to assess both chaotic climate variability and model response uncertainty. Statistical estimates of model response uncertainty, based on observations of recent climate change, admit climate sensitivities--defined as the equilibrium response of global mean temperature to doubling levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide--substantially greater than 5 K. But such strong responses are not used in ranges for future climate change because they have not been seen in general circulation models. Here we present results from the 'climateprediction.net' experiment, the first multi-thousand-member grand ensemble of simulations using a general circulation model and thereby explicitly resolving regional details. We find model versions as realistic as other state-of-the-art climate models but with climate sensitivities ranging from less than 2 K to more than 11 K. Models with such extreme sensitivities are critical for the study of the full range of possible responses of the climate system to rising greenhouse gas levels, and for assessing the risks associated with specific targets for stabilizing these levels.

Effects of eccentric exercise training on cortical bone and muscle strength in the estrogen-deficient mouse

The purpose of this study was to determine whether eccentrically biased exercise training could attenuate changes in muscle and bone function associated with estrogen deficiency in the mouse model. Four groups of ICR mice were used: control (Con), sham ovariectomized (Sham), ovariectomized (OVX), and ovariectomized + high-force resistance training (OVX+Train). All groups except Con were implanted with a nerve cuff surrounding the peroneal nerve to stimulate the left ankle dorsiflexors. Training consisted of 30 stimulated eccentric contractions of the left ankle dorsiflexors at approximately 150% of peak isometric torque every third day for 8 wk. After the training period, groups were not significantly different with regard to peak torque or muscle size. However, the tibial midshaft of the trained leg in the OVX+Train mice exhibited greater stiffness (+15%) than that in the untrained OVX mice, which could not be explained by changes in cross-sectional geometry of the tibia. Scaling of bone mechanical properties to muscle strength were not altered by ovariectomy or training. These data indicate that eccentric exercise training in adult mice can significantly increase bone stiffness, despite the absence of ovarian hormones.

Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003

The summer of 2003 was probably the hottest in Europe since at latest ad 1500, and unusually large numbers of heat-related deaths were reported in France, Germany and Italy. It is an ill-posed question whether the 2003 heatwave was caused, in a simple deterministic sense, by a modification of the external influences on climate--for example, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere--because almost any such weather event might have occurred by chance in an unmodified climate. However, it is possible to estimate by how much human activities may have increased the risk of the occurrence of such a heatwave. Here we use this conceptual framework to estimate the contribution of human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and other pollutants to the risk of the occurrence of unusually high mean summer temperatures throughout a large region of continental Europe. Using a threshold for mean summer temperature that was exceeded in 2003, but in no other year since the start of the instrumental record in 1851, we estimate it is very likely (confidence level >90%) that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding this threshold magnitude.

Functional recovery of the plantarflexor muscle group after hindlimb unloading in the rat

Research into skeletal muscle's response to hindlimb unloading (HU) of the rodent has focused on that of the markedly affected slow-twitch anti-gravity muscles (e.g., soleus). However, the ability of the animal to locomote following HU should be best determined by the in vivo functional properties of the muscle groups involved and, to our knowledge, this has not been investigated. Our objective was to determine how the in vivo functional properties of the rat ankle plantarflexor group change after 28 days of HU and during a subsequent 28-day recovery. Rats ( n=48) were unloaded for 28 days after which they were either tested immediately or allowed to recover for 7, 14, or 28 days before being tested. Control rats ( n=61) were tested at comparable times. In vivo functional properties of the ankle plantarflexors were assessed under anesthesia using an isokinetic dynamometer and included determination of the isometric torque-frequency relationship, the concentric torque-ankle angular velocity relationship, and fatigability. Immediately after HU, plantarflexor muscle weight was reduced by 24% but isometric torque production was reduced by 7-9% only at > or =100 Hz and concentric torque production was not significantly affected. However, after 7 days of recovery, in vivo function was more adversely affected; isometric and concentric torques were reduced by 12-33% and 16-36%, respectively, relative to control levels. In vivo plantarflexor function was recovered by 14 days. In conclusion, 28 days of HU has minor adverse effects on the in vivo function of the rat ankle plantarflexors. During the first week of recovery from HU, injury apparently occurs to the plantarflexors resulting in a transient impairment of functional capacity.

Biglycan-deficient mice have delayed osteogenesis after marrow ablation

Biglycan (bgn) is a small proteoglycan in skeletal tissue that binds and regulates collagen and TGF-beta activities. Mice deficient in bgn (bgn-KO) develop age-dependent osteopenia and have multiple metabolic defects in their bone marrow stromal cells including increased apoptosis, reduced numbers of colony-forming units-fibroblastic (CFU-F) and decreased collagen production. In the present study we tested the hypothesis that bone formation capability in response to a physiological stress is compromised in bgn deficiency. We tested this theory using an in vivo bone marrow ablation assay. Ablation was performed on 6-week-old wild type (wt) and bgn-KO mice and bones were analyzed at days 7, 10, and 17 postsurgery. X-ray analysis showed that bone marrow ablation in femora induced vigorous new bone formation within 10 days in both genotypes but appeared greater in the wt compared to the bgn-KO. In order to quantitate the changes in bone formation in the ablated animals, bone densities of the proximal, midshaft, and distal femora were assessed using peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT). The ratio of cancellous bone density at the midshaft (ablated limb/control limb) was significantly higher in wt compared to bgn-KO at day 10 postsurgery. Wt and bgn-KO femora had similar total and cancellous bone densities at days 7 and 17 postsurgery at all three locations indicating that the ablation effects were temporal and limited to the cancellous bone of the mid-shaft region. These data indicate that the absence of bgn directly impeded bone formation. Our results support the concept that bgn is important in controlling osteogenesis following marrow ablation.

Inducible, brain region-specific expression of a dominant negative mutant of c-Jun in transgenic mice decreases sensitivity to cocaine

Administration of cocaine induces the Fos family of transcription factors in the striatum, including the nucleus accumbens (NAc), a brain region important for the rewarding effects of addictive drugs. Several Fos proteins are induced acutely by cocaine, with stable isoforms of DeltaFosB predominating after chronic drug administration. However, it has been difficult to study the functional consequences of these Fos responses in vivo. Fos proteins heterodimerize with members of the Jun family to form active AP-1 transcription factor complexes. In the present study, we took advantage of this property and generated transgenic mice, using the tetracycline gene regulation system, that support the inducible, brain region-specific expression of a dominant negative mutant form of c-Jun (Deltac-Jun), which can antagonize the actions of Fos proteins. Expression of Deltac-Jun in the striatum and certain other brain regions of adult mice decreases their development of cocaine-induced conditioned place preference, suggesting reduced sensitivity to the rewarding effects of cocaine. In contrast, Deltac-Jun expression had no effect on cocaine-induced locomotor activity or sensitization. However, expression of Deltac-Jun in adult mice blocked the ability of chronic cocaine administration to induce three known targets for AP-1 in the NAc: the AMPA glutamate receptor subunit GluR2, the cyclin-dependent protein kinase Cdk5, and the transcription factor nuclear factor-kappaB (NFkappaB), without affecting several other proteins examined for comparison. Taken together, these results provide further support for an important role of AP-1-mediated transcription in some of the behavioral and molecular mechanisms underlying cocaine addiction.

The role of estrogen receptor-beta, in the early age-related bone gain and later age-related bone loss in female mice

The molecular and cellular mechanism of estrogen action in skeletal tissue remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to understand the role of estrogen receptor-beta, (ERbeta) on cortical and cancellous bone during growth and aging by comparing the bone phenotype of 6- and 13-month-old female mice with or without ERbeta. Groups of 11-14 wild-type (WT) controls and ERbeta knockout (BERKO) female mice were necropsied at 6 and 13 months of age. At both ages, BERKO mice did not differ significantly from WT controls in uterine weight and uterine epithelial thickness, indicating that ERbeta does not regulate the growth of uterine tissue. Femoral length increased significantly by 5.5% at 6 months of age in BERKO mice compared with WT controls. At 6 months of age, peripheral quantitative computerized tomography (pQCT) analysis of the distal femoral metaphysis (DFM) and femoral shafts showed that BERKO mice had significantly higher cortical bone content and periosteal circumference as compared with WT controls at both sites. In contrast to the findings in cortical bone, at 6 months of age, there was no difference between BERKO and WT mice in trabecular density, trabecular bone volume (TBV), or formation and resorption indices at the DFM. In 13-month-old WT mice, TBV (-41%), trabecular density (-27%) and cortical thickness decreased significantly. while marrow cavity and endocortical circumference increased significantly compared with 6-month-old WT mice. These age-related decreases in cancellous and endocortical bone did not occur in BERKO mice. At 13 months of age, BERKO mice had significantly higher total, trabecular and cortical bone, while having significantly lower bone resorption, bone formation and bone turnover in DFM compared with WT mice. These results indicate that deleting ERbeta protected against age-related bone loss in both the cancellous and endocortical compartments by decreasing bone resorption and bone turnover in aged female mice. These data demonstrate that in female mice, ERbeta plays a role in inhibiting periosteal bone formation, longitudinal and radial bone growth during the growth period, while it plays a role in stimulating bone resorption, bone turnover and bone loss on cancellous and endocortical bone surfaces during the aging process.

Site- and compartment-specific changes in bone with hindlimb unloading in mature adult rats

The purpose of this study was to examine site- and compartment-specific changes in bone induced by hindlimb unloading (HU) in the mature adult male rat (6 months old). Tibiae, femora, and humeri were removed after 14, 21, and 28 days of HU for determination of bone mineral density (BMD) and geometry by peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT), mechanical properties, and bone formation rate (BFR), and compared with baseline (0 day) and aging (28 day) controls. HU resulted in 20%-21% declines in cancellous BMD at the proximal tibia and femoral neck after 28 day HU vs. 0 day controls (CON). Cortical shell BMD at these sites was greater (by 4%-6%) in both 28 day HU and 28 day CON vs. 0 day CON animals, and nearly identical to that gain seen in the weight-bearing humerus. Mechanical properties at the proximal tibia exhibited a nonsignificant decline after HU vs. those of 0 day CON rats. At the femoral neck, a 10% decrement was noted in ultimate load in 28 day HU rats vs. 28 day CON animals. Middiaphyseal tibial bone increased slightly in density and area during HU; no differences in structural and material properties between 28 day HU and 28 day CON rats were noted. BFR at the tibial midshaft was significantly lower (by 90%) after 21 day HU vs. 0 day CON; this decline was maintained throughout 28 day HU. These results suggest there are compartment-specific differences in the mature adult skeletal response to hindlimb unloading, and that the major impact over 28 days of unloading is on cancellous bone sites. Given the sharp decline in BFR for midshaft cortical bone, it appears likely that deficits in BMD, area, or mechanical properties would develop with longer duration unloading.

Presence of the acute phase protein, bikunin, in the endometrium of gilts during estrous cycle and early pregnancy

Noninvasive, epitheliochorial placental attachment in the pig is regulated through endometrial production of protease inhibitors. The objective of the present study was to determine if the light-chain serine protease inhibitor of the inter-alpha-trypsin inhibitor family, bikunin, is produced by the porcine endometrium during the estrous cycle and early pregnancy. Western blot analysis revealed the presence of bikunin in uterine flushings of gilts collected during the luteal phase of the estrous cycle and early pregnancy (Days 12-18). However, bikunin unbound to the inter-alpha-trypsin heavy chains was detected only in endometrial explant culture medium obtained from estrus and pregnant (Days 12, 15, and 18) gilts. Endometrial bikunin gene expression was lowest on Day 10 of the estrous cycle and pregnancy, followed by a 30- to 77-fold increase on Day 15 of the estrous cycle and pregnancy. Bikunin gene expression decreased on Day 18 of the estrous cycle, whereas endometrial bikunin gene expression continued to increase in pregnant gilts. Bikunin mRNA was localized to the uterine glands between Days 15 and 18 of the estrous cycle and pregnancy. In addition to its role as a protease inhibitor, bikunin functions in stabilization of the extracellular matrix, which suggests that bikunin could be involved with facilitating placental attachment to the uterine epithelial surface in the pig.

External control of 20th century temperature by natural and anthropogenic forcings

A comparison of observations with simulations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model shows that both natural and anthropogenic factors have contributed significantly to 20th century temperature changes. The model successfully simulates global mean and large-scale land temperature variations, indicating that the climate response on these scales is strongly influenced by external factors. More than 80% of observed multidecadal-scale global mean temperature variations and more than 60% of 10- to 50-year land temperature variations are due to changes in external forcings. Anthropogenic global warming under a standard emissions scenario is predicted to continue at a rate similar to that observed in recent decades.

Harmonic imaging: echocardiographic enhanced contrast intensity and duration

The intensity and duration of contrast effect within the left ventricular cavity after an intravenous bolus of Levovist Injection were observed with both harmonic and fundamental imaging in nine patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease. Contrast intensity was assessed by a qualitative grading system (0, none; 1, weak; 2, moderate; 3, good) and by videodensitometric analysis of pixel intensity. Duration of left ventricular contrast effect was determined by measuring time from the initial visual appearance of contrast agent to its disappearance. The mean increase in pixel intensity within the left ventricular cavity from precontrast to peak contrast was significantly greater for second harmonic than for fundamental imaging (25.5 vs 7.1; P < 0.012). The mean contrast intensity qualitative score with harmonic imaging was higher (2.6 +/- 0.73 vs 1.2 +/- 0.44; P < 0.01) and the duration of contrast effect was longer (242 +/- 131 s vs 53 +/- 33 s; P < 0.004). Second harmonic imaging significantly enhanced contrast intensity and prolonged visible duration of contrast effect after a peripheral venous injection of Levovist.

Sex differences in ventricular function in patients with right bundle branch block

BACKGROUND

Left ventricular function in patients with right bundle branch block is variable and depends on the population under study. This study assessed the implications of right bundle branch block for the estimation of resting left ventricular function in patients with right bundle branch and suspected coronary artery disease.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Seventy-four patients with right bundle branch block, symptoms suggestive of coronary artery disease, and no electrocardiographic Q waves were compared with 649 patients with entirely normal electrocardiograms to assess the implications of right bundle branch block on resting left ventricular function. Resting ejection fraction was determined by radionuclide ventriculography. Patients with right bundle branch block were older (mean 65.0+/-10.2 years vs 53.8+/-11.1; P< .001) and had a lower mean ejection fraction (60%+/-11% vs 63%+/-9%; P< .005) compared with patients with normal electrocardiograms. There was a highly significant interaction between right bundle branch block and sex with respect to resting ejection fraction (P< .001). The mean ejection fraction for men with right bundle branch block was 57%+/-10% (17% with abnormal resting ejection fraction) compared with 62%+/-8% (7% with abnormal resting ejection fraction) for normal men. In contrast, the mean ejection fraction for women with right bundle branch block was 68%+/-9% (0% with abnormal resting ejection fraction) compared with 65%+/-9% (5% with abnormal resting ejection fraction) for normal women.

CONCLUSIONS

Male patients with right bundle branch block and symptoms suggestive of coronary artery disease have a lower resting ejection fraction than mole patients with normal electrocardiograms. This difference is not seen in female patients.

Permanent pacing in Ebstein's anomaly

Patients with Ebstein's anomaly present unique challenges to permanent pacing due to anatomical variations and tricuspid valve replacement. We retrospectively reviewed our experience with permanent pacing in patients with Ebstein's anomaly between 1976 and 1993. We identified 401 patients with Ebstein's anomaly, of whom 15 (3.7%) required permanent pacing (1 of the 15 was implanted elsewhere). Of the 15, there were 8 females and 7 males (mean age 32 years [range 7-74]); the indications for pacing were AV block in 11 and sinus node dysfunction in 4. Eight patients were programmed with VVI and seven with DDD. All VVI patients were paced epicardially. Two patients with DDD pacemakers had transvenous atrial and ventricular leads, 4 DDD patients had transvenous atrial leads and epicardial ventricular leads, and 1 patient had both epicardial and transvenous systems. Associated surgical procedures included tricuspid valve replacement in 14 of 15, atrial septal defect repair in 10 of 15, atrioplasty in 7 of 15, prior tricuspid annuloplasty in 4 of 15, pulmonary vein dilation in 1 of 15, and conduction system ablation in 2 of 15. Patients had a mean follow-up of 35 months (range 1-168 months). Complications requiring operative intervention occurred in four patients. One patient had displacement of a transvenous ventricular lead. A second patient had an epicardial lead failure. A third patient had a nonfunctioning atrial lead that displaced across the tricuspid valve, causing severe tricuspid regurgitation. The fourth patient had multiple epicardial and endocardial leads exit block with secondary diaphragmatic stimulation. Permanent pacemakers were required in 3.7% of patients with Ebstein's anomaly, with the indication being intrinsic conduction disease in the majority of patients. Ninety-three percent of patients required tricuspid valve replacement, suggesting more severe manifestation of Ebstein's anomaly. Twenty-seven percent had complications requiring surgical intervention. Thus, permanent pacing in patients with Ebstein's anomaly can be challenging and should be approached by an experienced physician.

Human Influence on the Atmospheric Vertical Temperature Structure: Detection and Observations

Recent work suggests a discernible human influence on climate. This finding is supported, with less restrictive assumptions than those used in earlier studies, by a 1961 through 1995 data set of radiosonde observations and by ensembles of coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations forced with changes in greenhouse gases, tropospheric sulfate aerosols, and stratospheric ozone. On balance, agreement between the simulations and observations is best for a combination of greenhouse gas, aerosol, and ozone forcing. The uncertainties remaining are due to imperfect knowledge of radiative forcing, natural climate variability, and errors in observations and model response.