Discriminatory accuracy of the SOFA score for determining clinical decompensation in patients presenting with COVID-19

Introduction

While the global dissemination of vaccines targeting the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has resulted in a decline in the incidence of infections, the case fatality rates have remained relative stable. A major objective of managing hospitalized patients with documented or suspected COVID-19 infection is the rapid identification of features associated with severe illness using readily available laboratory tests and clinical tools. The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score is a validated tool to facilitate the identification of patients at risk of dying from sepsis.

Purpose

The aim of this study was to assess the discriminatory accuracy of the SOFA score in predicting clinical decompensation in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 infection.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis at a three-hospital health system, comprised of one tertiary and two community hospitals, located in the Chicago metropolitan area. All patients had positive SARS-CoV-2 testing and were hospitalized for COVID-19 infection. The primary outcome was clinical decompensation, defined as the composite endpoint of death, ICU admission, or need for intubation. We utilized the most abnormal laboratory values observed during the admission to calculate the SOFA score. Receiver Operating Curves (ROC) were then constructed to determine the sensitivity and specificity of SOFA scores.

Results

Between March 1st and May 31st 2020, 1029 patients were included in our analysis with 367 patients meeting the study endpoint. The median SOFA score was 2.0 IQR (Q1, Q3 1,4) for the entire cohort. Patients who had in-hospital mortality had a median SOFA score of 4.0 (Q1,Q3 3,7). In patients that met the primary composite endpoint, the median SOFA score was 3.0, IQR (Q1, Q3 2,6). The ROC was 0.776 (95% CI 0.746–0.806, p<0.01).

Conclusion

The SOFA score demonstrates strong discriminatory accuracy for prediction of clinical decompensation in patients presenting with COVID-19 at our urban hospital system.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public hospital(s). Main funding source(s): Loyola University Medical Center

Predictors of clinical decompensation in patients presenting with COVID-19 in an urban hospital health system

Introduction

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has resulted in a pandemic which has infected more than 128 million people and led to over 2.8 million deaths worldwide. Although the introduction of efficacious vaccines has led to overall declines in the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, there has been a recent increase in infections once more due to the appearance of mutant strains with higher virulence. It therefore remains vital to identify predictors of poor outcomes in this patient population.

Purpose

The objective of our study was to identify predictors of prolonged hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, intubation, and death in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis of all patients hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 at our health system that includes one tertiary care center and two community hospitals located in the Chicago metropolitan area. The main outcome was a composite endpoint of hospitalization >28 days, ICU admission, intubation, and death.

Explanatory variables associated with the primary outcome in the bivariate analysis (p<0.05) were included in the multivariable logistic regression model. Statistical analysis was performed using IBM SPSS 25.0.

Results

Between March 1, 2020 and May 31, 2020, 1029 patients hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 were included in our analysis. Of these patients, 379 met the composite endpoint. Baseline demographics are described in Table 1. Of note, our cohort consisted of a predominantly minority patient population including 47% Hispanic, 17% African American, 16% Caucasian, and 16% other.

In bivariate analysis, age, hypertension, tobacco and alcohol abuse, obesity, coronary artery disease, arrhythmias, valvular heart disease, dyslipidemia, hypertension, stroke, diabetes, documented thrombosis, troponin, CRP, ESR, ferritin, LDH, BNP, D-dimer >5x the upper limit of normal, lactate, and right ventricular outflow tract velocity time integral <9.5 were significant.

After multivariable adjustment, explanatory variables associated with the composite endpoint included troponin (OR 2.36; 95% CI 1.08–5.17, p 0.03), D-dimer (OR 1.5; 95% CI 1.23–1.98, p<0.01, lactate (OR 1.58; 95% CI 1.28–1.95, p<0.01), and documented thrombosis (OR 3.56; 95% CI 1.30–8.70, p<.05). Race was not a predictor of poor outcomes in the bivariate or multivariate analysis (Table 2).

Conclusions

In a large urban cohort with a predominantly minority population, we identified several clinical predictors of poor outcomes. Of note, race was not a predictor of the primary endpoint in this study. While recent literature has demonstrated worse outcomes among racial minorities infected with SARS-CoV-2, our data suggests these variations are related to social determinants of health rather than biologic causes.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public hospital(s). Main funding source(s): Loyola University Medical Center

Outcomes of ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction due to spontaneous coronary artery dissection: a nationwide cohort sample

Background

Spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD) is a common, non-atherosclerotic cause of myocardial infarction (MI). While conservative therapy is preferred in most cases, its role among those presenting as ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) remains undefined.

Purpose

We aimed to explore outcomes of SCAD causing STEMI, stratifying cases by involved coronary artery and revascularization status.

Methods

We used the Nationwide Readmission Database (2015–2018) to identify patients hospitalized with STEMI by using ICD-10-Clinical modification codes, and then stratified them into SCAD or no-SCAD groups. Each group was further subdivided by involved coronary artery (i.e., left main, left anterior descending, left circumflex, or right coronary artery), and if revascularization (i.e., percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG)) was performed. We excluded patients &gt;55 years old or with iatrogenic dissection. The age restriction allows us to compare a similarly aged group of patients. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Cardiogenic shock, acute kidney injury, mechanical complications, length of stay, and 30-day readmission for all-cause, heart failure or MI were secondary outcomes.

Results

Of the 17,556 patients with STEMI identified, 338 (1.9%) had SCAD. Patients with SCAD were younger (median age (IQR) 46.0 (33–90) vs 49.0 (41–57); p&lt;0.001) and more likely to be female (67% vs 21.6%, p&lt;0.001). They were less likely to have PCI (55.3% vs. 80.7%; p&lt;0.001), more likely to undergo CABG (4.7% vs 1.3%; p&lt;0.001), with left main and left anterior descending coronary arteries more often affected (2.4% vs 1.1%, and 53.3% vs 48.6%; p for both =0.05, respectively). In-hospital mortality did not differ between groups (3.6% vs 3.3, p=0.81). Revascularization was associated with lower in-hospital mortality among no-SCAD patients (2.6% vs 7.0%, p&lt;0.001), but not among SCAD patients (4.0% vs 3.1%, p=0.76) even when stratified by involved coronary artery. Revascularization among SCAD patients was associated with lower 30-day readmission rates for MI (0.0% vs 2.8%, p=0.05). SCAD patients were less likely to have acute kidney injury (6.5% vs 11.2%, p=0.01), but had a longer length of stay (median (IQR) 3.0 (1.0–6.0) vs 2.0 (1.0–4.0), p&lt;0.001). Both groups had similar rates of cardiogenic shock (11.8% vs 10.6%, p=0.56), mechanical complications (0.6% vs 0.3%, p=0.22), and 30-day readmission rates for all-cause, and heart failure.

Conclusion

In-hospital mortality did not differ between patients with STEMI due to SCAD or no-SCAD. Although revascularization was not associated with lower in-hospital mortality among SCAD patients (regardless of involved coronary artery), their 30-day readmission rate for MI was lower suggesting further studies are warranted to explore patient subsets of SCAD that may benefit from revascularization.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

A massive rock and ice avalanche caused the 2021 disaster at Chamoli, Indian Himalaya

On 7 February 2021, a catastrophic mass flow descended the Ronti Gad, Rishiganga, and Dhauliganga valleys in Chamoli, Uttarakhand, India, causing widespread devastation and severely damaging two hydropower projects. More than 200 people were killed or are missing. Our analysis of satellite imagery, seismic records, numerical model results, and eyewitness videos reveals that ~27 × 10⁶ cubic meters of rock and glacier ice collapsed from the steep north face of Ronti Peak. The rock and ice avalanche rapidly transformed into an extraordinarily large and mobile debris flow that transported boulders greater than 20 meters in diameter and scoured the valley walls up to 220 meters above the valley floor. The intersection of the hazard cascade with downvalley infrastructure resulted in a disaster, which highlights key questions about adequate monitoring and sustainable development in the Himalaya as well as other remote, high-mountain environments.

Family and occupational functioning following military trauma exposure and moral injury

INTRODUCTION

Evidence is growing regarding the impact of potentially morally injurious events (PMIEs) on mental health; yet how moral injury may affect an individual's occupational and familial functioning remains poorly understood.

METHOD

Thirty male veterans who reported exposure to either traumatic or morally injurious events and 15 clinicians were recruited for semi-structured qualitative interviews.

RESULTS

While many veterans experienced psychological distress postevent, those who experienced PMIEs especially reported social withdrawal and engagement in aggressive, risk-taking behaviours. This was highly distressing for family members and created a tense, volatile home and workplace environment that was difficult for others to navigate. Following PMIEs, employment could be used as a cognitive avoidance strategy or as a means to atone for transgressive acts. In cases of moral injury, clinicians considered that targeted support for spouses and accessible guidance to help children to better understand how their military parent may be feeling would be beneficial.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides some of the first evidence of the pervasive negative impact of PMIEs on veterans' familial and occupational functioning. These findings highlight the need to comprehensively screen for the impact of moral injury on daily functioning in future studies that goes beyond just an assessment of psychological symptoms.

Benchmarking an 11-qubit quantum computer

The field of quantum computing has grown from concept to demonstration devices over the past 20 years. Universal quantum computing offers efficiency in approaching problems of scientific and commercial interest, such as factoring large numbers, searching databases, simulating intractable models from quantum physics, and optimizing complex cost functions. Here, we present an 11-qubit fully-connected, programmable quantum computer in a trapped ion system composed of 13 ¹⁷¹Yb⁺ ions. We demonstrate average single-qubit gate fidelities of 99.5\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\%$$\end{document}%, average two-qubit-gate fidelities of 97.5\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\%$$\end{document}%, and SPAM errors of 0.7\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\%$$\end{document}%. To illustrate the capabilities of this universal platform and provide a basis for comparison with similarly-sized devices, we compile the Bernstein-Vazirani and Hidden Shift algorithms into our native gates and execute them on the hardware with average success rates of 78\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\%$$\end{document}% and 35\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\%$$\end{document}%, respectively. These algorithms serve as excellent benchmarks for any type of quantum hardware, and show that our system outperforms all other currently available hardware.

The growing complexity of quantum computing devices makes presents challenges for benchmarking their performance as previous, exhaustive approaches become infeasible. Here the authors characterise the quality of their 11-qubit device by successfully computing two quantum algorithms.

Radiographic and arthroscopic features of third carpal bone slab fractures and their impact on racing performance following arthroscopic repair in a population of racing Thoroughbreds in the UK

BACKGROUND

Slab fractures of the third carpal bone (C3) are a common injury of Thoroughbred racehorses. Results of arthroscopically guided repair have not been reported since the initial description of the technique in 1986. Additionally, fracture details and racing outcomes in a population of Thoroughbreds racing under UK jurisdiction have not previously been described.

OBJECTIVES

To report the frequency distribution of C3 slab fractures and to determine the impact on racing performance following arthroscopically guided repair in a population of Thoroughbred racehorses.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective case series.

METHODS

Case records of Thoroughbred racehorses undergoing arthroscopically guided repair of C3 slab fractures at Newmarket Equine Hospital between 2006 and 2015 were retrieved. Radiographs and arthroscopic studies were reviewed. The effect of demography and fracture morphology on racing outcome was evaluated.

RESULTS

C3 slab fractures occurred most commonly through the radial facet in a frontal plane (45/71 63.4%). Comminution was identified during arthroscopy in 42/71 (59.2%) fractures and occurred most frequently at the palmar margin of the fracture. Forty-one out of 65 horses (63.1%) raced at least once post-operatively. Females were less likely to return to racing compared to males (P<0.001). Horses that had raced before injury were more likely (OR 4.4, 95% CI 1.4-13.5, P = 0.01) to race after injury compared to horses that were unraced at the time of injury. After injury horses had a small but significant reduction in racing performance.

MAIN LIMITATIONS

The series is a preselected population of Thoroughbred racehorses which referring veterinary surgeons considered potential candidates for surgical repair.

CONCLUSION

Fracture configurations can be identified radiographically but is not a reliable predictor of comminution or other intra-articular lesions. Arthroscopy not only directs repair but also identifies and facilitates management of concurrent lesions. The results reported should assist in formulating appropriate prognoses for Thoroughbred horses racing in the UK.

Case selection for urological input in planned laparoscopic rectovaginal endometriosis surgery

BACKGROUND

Surgery for deep endometriosis often requires input from urological surgeons. This study aims to determine pre-operative and intra-operative factors that influence the need for urological input in laparoscopic resection of rectovaginal endometriosis and to assess the usefulness of a scoring system to predict this.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 230 patients undergoing laparoscopic excision of deep endometriosis, at a tertiary referral centre for endometriosis in London UK, 2011 to 2015. Data from pre-operative assessment, surgery and post-operative follow up were analysed and patients were categorised according to their pre-operative and intra-operative risk factors. The primary outcome measure was the requirement of intra-operative input by urological surgeons.

RESULTS

The median age was 35 years. In addition to the excision of endometriosis, 19.6% patients (45 patients) underwent hysterectomy, 14.8% (34 patients) required JJ stent placement, 6.1% (14 patients) had bowel resections and 2.6% (6 patients) required an ileostomy. 93.9% (216 patients) were considered normal-risk pre-operatively, of whom 89.4% (193/216) did not require any intra-operative urological input. 10.6% of this normal-risk group (23/216) required JJ stents, of whom 69.6% (16/23) also required a hysterectomy or bowel resection. Post operative complications occurred in 0.9% (2/216) of normal-risk patients, with none having required intra-operative urological reconstruction.Six percent (14 patients) were deemed to be increased-risk pre-operatively, of whom 78.6% (11/14) required JJ stent insertion. Thirty-six percent of increased-risk patients (5/14) had pre-operative renal dysfunction demonstrated on MAG3/DMSA and 80.0% of these (4/5) required intra-operative ureteric reconstruction.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients considered normal-risk pre-operatively, planned for excision, without hysterectomy or bowel resection, can be safely managed without specific urology input. Patients with risk-features are highly likely to require urological input, particularly for JJ stent insertion. Patients with pre-operative renal dysfunction, demonstrated on MAG3/DMSA, have a high chance of requiring intra-operative ureteric reconstruction and are best managed with pre-planned reconstructive urologist input.

Next generation sequencing (NGS) to improve the diagnosis and management of patients with disorders of sex development (DSD)

Disorders of sex development (DSDs) are a diverse group of conditions where the chromosomal, gonadal or anatomical sex can be atypical. The highly heterogeneous nature of this group of conditions often makes determining a genetic diagnosis challenging. Prior to next generation sequencing (NGS) technologies, genetic diagnostic tests were only available for a few of the many DSD-associated genes, which consequently had to be tested sequentially. Genetic testing is key in establishing the diagnosis, allowing for personalised management of these patients. Pinpointing the molecular cause of a patient's DSD can significantly impact patient management by informing future development needs, altering management strategies and identifying correct inheritance pattern when counselling family members. We have developed a 30-gene NGS panel, designed to be used as a frontline test for all suspected cases of DSD (both 46,XX and 46,XY cases). We have confirmed a diagnosis in 25 of the 80 patients tested to date. Confirmed diagnoses were linked to mutations in AMH, AMHR2, AR, HSD17B3, HSD3B2, MAMLD1, NR5A1, SRD5A2 and WT1 which have resulted in changes to patient management. The minimum diagnostic yield for patients with 46,XY DSD is 25/73. In 34/80 patients, only benign or likely benign variants were identified, and in 21/80 patients only variants of uncertain significance (VOUS) were identified, resulting in a diagnosis not being confirmed in these individuals. Our data support previous studies that an NGS panel approach is a clinically useful and cost-effective frontline test for patients with DSDs.

Computational and experimental analysis of bioactive peptide linear motifs in the integrin adhesome

Therapeutic modulation of protein interactions is challenging, but short linear motifs (SLiMs) represent potential targets. Focal adhesions play a central role in adhesion by linking cells to the extracellular matrix. Integrins are central to this process, and many other intracellular proteins are components of the integrin adhesome. We applied a peptide network targeting approach to explore the intracellular modulation of integrin function in platelets. Firstly, we computed a platelet-relevant integrin adhesome, inferred via homology of known platelet proteins to adhesome components. We then computationally selected peptides from the set of platelet integrin adhesome cytoplasmic and membrane adjacent protein-protein interfaces. Motifs of interest in the intracellular component of the platelet integrin adhesome were identified using a predictor of SLiMs based on analysis of protein primary amino acid sequences (SLiMPred), a predictor of strongly conserved motifs within disordered protein regions (SLiMPrints), and information from the literature regarding protein interactions in the complex. We then synthesized peptides incorporating these motifs combined with cell penetrating factors (tat peptide and palmitylation for cytoplasmic and membrane proteins respectively). We tested for the platelet activating effects of the peptides, as well as their abilities to inhibit activation. Bioactivity testing revealed a number of peptides that modulated platelet function, including those derived from α-actinin (ACTN1) and syndecan (SDC4), binding to vinculin and syntenin respectively. Both chimeric peptide experiments and peptide combination experiments failed to identify strong effects, perhaps characterizing the adhesome as relatively robust against within-adhesome synergistic perturbation. We investigated in more detail peptides targeting vinculin. Combined experimental and computational evidence suggested a model in which the positively charged tat-derived cell penetrating part of the peptide contributes to bioactivity via stabilizing charge interactions with a region of the ACTN1 negatively charged surface. We conclude that some interactions in the integrin adhesome appear to be capable of modulation by short peptides, and may aid in the identification and characterization of target sites within the complex that may be useful for therapeutic modulation.

The Platelet Releasate is Altered in Human Pregnancy

PURPOSE

Healthy pregnancy is characterized by an increase in platelet activation and a decrease in the number of circulating platelets with gestation. Despite this recognized importance, proteomic studies investigating platelets in healthy pregnancy have not been performed. As platelet cargo can be altered in different conditions, it is hypothesized that platelets may store a relevant and bespoke collection of molecules during pregnancy.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

Comparative label-free quantitative proteomic profiling of platelet releasates (PRs) is performed from 18 healthy pregnant and 13 non-pregnant women using an MS/MS approach.

RESULTS

Of the 723 proteins identified, 69 PR proteins are found to be differentially released from platelets in pregnancy, including proteins only expressed during pregnancy such as pregnancy-specific glycoproteins and human placental lactogen. Moreover, the population of exosomal vesicles present in the PR is also modified in pregnancy. Receiver operating characteristic analysis shows the predictive ability of 11 PR proteins to distinctly classify pregnant and nonpregnant women with an area under the curve of 0.876, a sensitivity of 88.9%, and a specificity of 84.6%.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Taken together this demonstrates that platelets and their released cargo are 'educated' in physiologic stressful conditions such as pregnancy and may represent a promising platform to study pregnancy complications.

Marie M, Stickney K, VanBuecken D, Vellek B, Webber C, Allen L, Bollyk J, Hilderman N, Ismail H, Lamola S, Sanda S, Vendettuoli H, Tridgell D, Monzavi R, Bock M, Fisher L, Halvorson M, Jeandron D, Kim M, Wood J, Geffner M, Kaufman F, Parkman R, Salazar C, Goland R, Clynes R, Cook S, Freeby M, Gallagher MP, Gandica R, Greenberg E, Kurland A, Pollak S, Wolk A, Chan M, Koplimae L, Levine E, Smith K, Trast J, DiMeglio L, Blum J, Evans-Molina C, Hufferd R, Jagielo B, Kruse C, Patrick V, Rigby M, Spall M, Swinney K, Terrell J, Christner L, Ford L, Lynch S, Menendez M, Merrill P, Pescovitz M, Rodriguez H, Alleyn C, Baidal D, Fay S, Gaglia J, Resnick B, Szubowicz S, Weir G, Benjamin R, Conboy D, deManbey A, Jackson R, Jalahej H, Orban T, Ricker A, Wolfsdorf J, Zhang HH, Wilson D, Aye T, Baker B, Barahona K, Buckingham B, Esrey K, Esrey T, Fathman G, Snyder R, Aneja B, Chatav M, Espinoza O, Frank E, Liu J, Perry J, Pyle R, Rigby A, Riley K, Soto A, Gitelman S, Adi S, Anderson M, Berhel A, Breen K, Fraser K, Gerard-Gonzalez A, Jossan P, Lustig R, Moassesfar S, Mugg A, Ng D, Prahalod P, Rangel-Lugo M, Sanda S, Tarkoff J, Torok C, Wesch R, Aslan I, Buchanan J, Cordier J, Hamilton C, Hawkins L, Ho T, Jain A, Ko K, Lee T, Phelps S, Rosenthal S, Sahakitrungruang T, Stehl L, Taylor L, Wertz M, Wong J, Philipson L, Briars R, Devine N, Littlejohn E, Grant T, Gottlieb P, Klingensmith G, Steck A, Alkanani A, Bautista K, Bedoy R, Blau A, Burke B, Cory L, Dang M, Fitzgerald-Miller L, Fouts A, Gage V, Garg S, Gesauldo P, Gutin R, Hayes C, Hoffman M, Ketchum K, Logsden-Sackett N, Maahs D, Messer L, Meyers L, Michels A, Peacock S, Rewers M, Rodriguez P, Sepulbeda F, Sippl R, Steck A, Taki I, Tran BK, Tran T, Wadwa RP, Zeitler P, Barker J, Barry S, Birks L, Bomsburger L, Bookert T, Briggs L, Burdick P, Cabrera R, Chase P, Cobry E, Conley A, Cook G, Daniels J, DiDomenico D, Eckert J, Ehler A, Eisenbarth G, Fain P, Fiallo-Scharer R, Frank N, Goettle H, Haarhues M, Harris S, Horton L, Hutton J, Jeffrrey J, Jenison R, Jones K, Kastelic W, King MA, Lehr D, Lungaro J, Mason K, Maurer H, Nguyen L, Proto A, Realsen J, Schmitt K, Schwartz M, Skovgaard S, Smith J, Vanderwel B, Voelmle M, Wagner R, Wallace A, Walravens P, Weiner L, Westerhoff B, Westfall E, Widmer K, Wright H, Schatz D, Abraham A, Atkinson M, Cintron M, Clare-Salzler M, Ferguson J, Haller M, Hosford J, Mancini D, Rohrs H, Silverstein J, Thomas J, Winter W, Cole G, Cook R, Coy R, Hicks E, Lewis N, Marks J, Pugliese A, Blaschke C, Matheson D, Sanders-Branca N, Sosenko J, Arazo L, Arce R, Cisneros M, Sabbag S, Moran A, Gibson C, Fife B, Hering B, Kwong C, Leschyshyn J, Nathan B, Pappenfus B, Street A, Boes MA, Eck SP, Finney L, Fischer TA, Martin A, Muzamhindo CJ, Rhodes M, Smith J, Wagner J, Wood B, Becker D, Delallo K, Diaz A, Elnyczky B, Libman I, Pasek B, Riley K, Trucco M, Copemen B, Gwynn D, Toledo F, Rodriguez H, Bollepalli S, Diamond F, Eyth E, Henson D, Lenz A, Shulman D, Raskin P, Adhikari S, Dickson B, Dunnigan E, Lingvay I, Pruneda L, Ramos-Roman M, Raskin P, Rhee C, Richard J, Siegelman M, Sturges D, Sumpter K, White P, Alford M, Arthur J, Aviles-Santa ML, Cordova E, Davis R, Fernandez S, Fordan S, Hardin T, Jacobs A, Kaloyanova P, Lukacova-Zib I, Mirfakhraee S, Mohan A, Noto H, Smith O, Torres N, Wherrett D, Balmer D, Eisel L, Kovalakovska R, Mehan M, Sultan F, Ahenkorah B, Cevallos J, Razack N, Ricci MJ, Rhode A, Srikandarajah M, Steger R, Russell WE, Black M, Brendle F, Brown A, Moore D, Pittel E, Robertson A, Shannon A, Thomas JW, Herold K, Feldman L, Sherwin R, Tamborlane W, Weinzimer S, Toppari J, Kallio T, Kärkkäinen M, Mäntymäki E, Niininen T, Nurmi B, Rajala P, Romo M, Suomenrinne S, Näntö-Salonen K, Simell O, Simell T, Bosi E, Battaglia M, Bianconi E, Bonfanti R, Grogan P, Laurenzi A, Martinenghi S, Meschi F, Pastore M, Falqui L, Muscato MT, Viscardi M, Castleden H, Farthing N, Loud S, Matthews C, McGhee J, Morgan A, Pollitt J, Elliot-Jones R, Wheaton C, Knip M, Siljander H, Suomalainen H, Colman P, Healy F, Mesfin S, Redl L, Wentworth J, Willis J, Farley M, Harrison L, Perry C, Williams F, Mayo A, Paxton J, Thompson V, Volin L, Fenton C, Carr L, Lemon E, Swank M, Luidens M, Salgam M, Sharma V, Schade D, King C, Carano R, Heiden J, Means N, Holman L, Thomas I, Madrigal D, Muth T, Martin C, Plunkett C, Ramm C, Auchus R, Lane W, Avots E, Buford M, Hale C, Hoyle J, Lane B, Muir A, Shuler S, Raviele N, Ivie E, Jenkins M, Lindsley K, Hansen I, Fadoju D, Felner E, Bode B, Hosey R, Sax J, Jefferies C, Mannering S, Prentis R, She J, Stachura M, Hopkins D, Williams J, Steed L, Asatapova E, Nunez S, Knight S, Dixon P, Ching J, Donner T, Longnecker S, Abel K, Arcara K, Blackman S, Clark L, Cooke D, Plotnick L, Levin P, Bromberger L, Klein K, Sadurska K, Allen C, Michaud D, Snodgrass H, Burghen G, Chatha S, Clark C, Silverberg J, Wittmer C, Gardner J, LeBoeuf C, Bell P, McGlore O, Tennet H, Alba N, Carroll M, Baert L, Beaton H, Cordell E, Haynes A, Reed C, Lichter K, McCarthy P, McCarthy S, Monchamp T, Roach J, Manies S, Gunville F, Marosok L, Nelson T, Ackerman K, Rudolph J, Stewart M, McCormick K, May S, Falls T, Barrett T, Dale K, Makusha L, McTernana C, Penny-Thomas K, Sullivan K, Narendran P, Robbie J, Smith D, Christensen R, Koehler B, Royal C, Arthur T, Houser H, Renaldi J, Watsen S, Wu P, Lyons L, House B, Yu J, Holt H, Nation M, Vickers C, Watling R, Heptulla R, Trast J, Agarwal C, Newell D, Katikaneni R, Gardner C, Del Rio A, Logan A, Collier H, Rishton C, Whalley G, Ali A, Ramtoola S, Quattrin T, Mastrandea L, House A, Ecker M, Huang C, Gougeon C, Ho J, Pacuad D, Dunger D, May J, O’Brien C, Acerini C, Salgin B, Thankamony A, Williams R, Buse J, Fuller G, Duclos M, Tricome J, Brown H, Pittard D, Bowlby D, Blue A, Headley T, Bendre S, Lewis K, Sutphin K, Soloranzo C, Puskaric J, Madison H, Rincon M, Carlucci M, Shridharani R, Rusk B, Tessman E, Huffman D, Abrams H, Biederman B, Jones M, Leathers V, Brickman W, Petrie P, Zimmerman D, Howard J, Miller L, Alemzadeh R, Mihailescu D, Melgozza-Walker R, Abdulla N, Boucher-Berry C, Ize-Ludlow D, Levy R, Swenson Brousell C, Scott R, Heenan H, Lunt H, Kendall D, Willis J, Darlow B, Crimmins N, Edler D, Weis T, Schultz C, Rogers D, Latham D, Mawhorter C, Switzer C, Spencer W, Konstantnopoulus P, Broder S, Klein J, Bachrach B, Gardner M, Eichelberger D, Knight L, Szadek L, Welnick G, Thompson B, Hoffman R, Revell A, Cherko J, Carter K, Gilson E, Haines J, Arthur G, Bowen B, Zipf W, Graves P, Lozano R, Seiple D, Spicer K, Chang A, Fregosi J, Harbinson J, Paulson C, Stalters S, Wright P, Zlock D, Freeth A, Victory J, Maheshwari H, Maheshwari A, Holmstrom T, Bueno J, Arguello R, Ahern J, Noreika L, Watson V, Hourse S, Breyer P, Kissel C, Nicholson Y, Pfeifer M, Almazan S, Bajaj J, Quinn M, Funk K, McCance J, Moreno E, Veintimilla R, Wells A, Cook J, Trunnel S, Transue D, Surhigh J, Bezzaire D, Moltz K, Zacharski E, Henske J, Desai S, Frizelis K, Khan F, Sjoberg R, Allen K, 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Manley L, Nemery R, Charlton W, Smith P, Kerr L, Steindel-Kopp B, Alamaguer M, Tabisola-Nuesca E, Pendersen A, Larson N, Cooper-Olviver H, Chan D, Fitz-Patrick D, Carreira T, Park Y, Ruhaak R, Liljenquist D. A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Predicts Progression of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes in Individuals at Risk

OBJECTIVE

We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables.

RESULTS

Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

The T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.

Impact of previous hepatitis B infection on the clinical outcomes from chronic hepatitis C? A population-level analysis

Chronic coinfection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) is associated with adverse liver outcomes. The clinical impact of previous HBV infection on liver disease in HCV infection is unknown. We aimed at determining any association of previous HBV infection with liver outcomes using antibodies to the hepatitis B core antigen (HBcAb) positivity as a marker of exposure. The Scottish Hepatitis C Clinical Database containing data for all patients attending HCV clinics in participating health boards was linked to the HBV diagnostic registry and mortality data from Information Services Division, Scotland. Survival analyses with competing risks were constructed for time from the first appointment to decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver-related mortality. Records of 8513 chronic HCV patients were included in the analyses (87 HBcAb positive and HBV surface antigen [HBsAg] positive, 1577 HBcAb positive and HBsAg negative, and 6849 HBcAb negative). Multivariate cause-specific proportional hazards models showed previous HBV infection (HBcAb positive and HBsAg negative) significantly increased the risks of decompensated cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.29, 95% CI: 1.01-1.65) and HCC (HR: 1.64, 95% CI: 1.09-2.49), but not liver-related death (HR: 1.02, 95% CI: 0.80-1.30). This is the largest study to date showing an association between previous HBV infection and certain adverse liver outcomes in HCV infection. Our analyses add significantly to evidence which suggests that HBV infection adversely affects liver health despite apparent clearance. This has important implications for HBV vaccination policy and indications for prioritization of HCV therapy.