In-hospital infective endocarditis following transcatheter aortic valve replacement: a cross-sectional study of the National Inpatient Sample database in the USA

BACKGROUND

While the utilization of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) for patients with severe aortic stenosis has been increasing, in-hospital infective endocarditis (IE) following TAVR has not been well described.

AIM

To identify in-hospital IE following TAVR.

METHODS

All patients who underwent TAVR between 2012 and 2014 were identified using the National Inpatient Sample database. Multi-variate logistic regression was performed to identify the predictors of in-hospital IE after TAVR.

FINDINGS

Of the 41,025 patients who received TAVR, 120 patients (0.3%) developed in-hospital IE. Viridans group streptococci (20.8%) was the most frequent causative organism for in-hospital IE, followed by Staphylococcus aureus (16.7%) and enterococci (8.3%). Patients who developed in-hospital IE after TAVR had significantly higher rates of death (20.8% vs 4.1%, P<0.001), septic shock (16.7% vs 0.8%, P<0.001), cardiogenic shock (12.5% vs 3.4%, P=0.02), acute kidney injury requiring haemodialysis (16.7% vs 1.6%, P<0.001), bleeding requiring transfusion (29.2% vs 11.3%, P=0.01), myocardial infarction (12.5% vs 2.1%, P<0.001) and permanent pacemaker removal (4.2% vs 0.05%, P<0.001) compared with patients without IE. Independent predictors of in-hospital IE after TAVR include younger age [odds ratio (OR) 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89-0.95], drug abuse (OR 48.9, 95% CI 6.9-347.3) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (OR 7.8, 95% CI 1.4-44.4).

CONCLUSION

IE occurred in 0.3% of patients after TAVR during the same hospitalization, resulting in higher rates of adverse outcomes including mortality. Patients with younger age, a history of drug abuse or HIV infection are at greater risk of in-hospital IE following TAVR, and would benefit from vigilant preventive measures perioperatively.

Ablation of Bax and Bak protects skeletal muscle against pressure-induced injury

Pressure-induced injury (PI), such as a pressure ulcer, in patients with limited mobility is a healthcare issue worldwide. PI is an injury to skin and its underlying tissue such as skeletal muscle. Muscle compression, composed of mechanical deformation of muscle and external load, leads to localized ischemia and subsequent unloading reperfusion and, hence, a pressure ulcer in bed-bound patients. Although the gross factors involved in PI have been identified, little is known about the exact disease mechanism or its links to apoptosis, autophagy and inflammation. Here, we report that PI is mediated by intrinsic apoptosis and exacerbated by autophagy. Conditional ablation of Bax and Bak activates the Akt-mTOR pathway and Bnip3-mediated mitophagy and preserves mitochondrial contents in compressed muscle. Moreover, we find that the presence/absence of Bax and Bak alters the roles and functions of autophagy in PI. Our results suggest that manipulating apoptosis and autophagy are potential therapeutic targets for treatment and prevention of PI.

Effects of Drink Driving on Crash Risk Based on Random Breath Test Data

Introduction

Driving under the influence of alcohol (DUIA) is an important contributor to road crashes, injuries, and fatalities. Legal limits on drivers' breath alcohol concentration (BrAC) were first introduced in Hong Kong during the 1990s. Since then, the number of alcohol-related crashes has decreased. In 2009, police were empowered to conduct random breath tests (RBT) at roadblocks at any time. The availability of comprehensive RBT data allows us to determine the relationship between crash risk and BrAC, while controlling for confounding factors such as temporal distribution, road environment, and traffic conditions.

Method

In this study, we established two negative binomial regression models to analyse the risk of crashes in which people are killed or seriously injured (KSI crashes) and those involving only slight injuries on 182 urban road segments.

Results

Our results indicated that a higher mean BrAC markedly increases the risk of KSI crashes. However, there was no relationship between the risk of crashes involving slight injury and mean BrAC, although the absence of a hard shoulder, the presence of roadside parking bays, the dawn period, and the location noticeably increase the risk of these crashes.

Conclusion

It is worth exploring the benefits of remedial measures if comprehensive information on demographics and the driving habits of individual drivers become available in the future.

Association between Drink Driving and Severity of Crash Injuries to Road Users

Objective

To determine the association between alcohol impairment in drivers and risk of severe injury in other road users in Hong Kong.

Method

The Road Casualty Injury Information System (RoCIS) was set up by linking a regional hospital injury registry to the police traffic injury database. Based on the year 2004 linked dataset, a specific model namely the External Casualty Model (ECM) was designed to measure the association between severe injury outcome of other (non-driver) road user casualties (as stratified by ISS groups [ISS <9 or ISS ≥9]) and the level of alcohol impairment (as measured by breath alcohol concentration [BAC <22 µg/100 ml or BAC ≥22 µg/100 ml]) in drivers involving in the crash, controlling for the driver's demographics (age and sex) and behaviour (as measured by driving-offence points [DOP]) and another attribute (day of week of crash). Binary logistic regression was used in the analysis.

Results

Out of 1818 matched RoCIS cases in the year 2004, 439 ECM records were available for analysis. Alcohol impaired drivers led to a significantly higher risk of severe injury to other road users (OR=4.2, 95%CI=1.21, 14.36, p=0.02). Crashes on weekdays seemingly led to a lower severe injury risk (OR=0.57, p=0.08) than crashes on weekends. DOP of drivers did not predict a higher severe injury risk to other road users.

Conclusions

Alcohol impairment on driver increases the risk of severe injury to other road users by four times. Road safety education campaign should stress on this adverse impact of drink driving on innocent people.

Bicycle-Related Crashes in Hong Kong: Is it Possible to Reduce Mortality and Severe Injury in the Metropolitan Area?

Background

Cycling is not the primary mode of commuter transport in Hong Kong, yet cyclists are exposed to a high risk of injury and fatality in road crashes. It is essential to identify the significant factors contributing to severe injury among cyclists in Hong Kong.

Aim

To evaluate the effects of significant factors, including demographics, temporal distribution, cyclist behavior, road conditions, and weather, on the risk of severe and life-threatening injury among cyclists in road crashes in Hong Kong.

Method

The study was nested on a database known as Road Casualty Information System (RoCIS) which is a linked database between police traffic accident investigations reports and hospital injury records. A total of 682 victims were identified during the study period from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2006. In particular, injured body part, demographics, helmet use, alcohol intoxication, weather conditions, road type and geometry, and collision characteristics of 682 trauma patients were the attributing variables of concern. The primary outcome measure was the injury severity of trauma patients which was classified into three levels: slight injury [Injury severity Scale (ISS) </=8], severe injury (ISS >/=9), and life-threatening injury (ISS >/=25). A multinomial logit regression model was established to evaluate the significance of factors contributing to severe and life-threatening injuries among cyclists in road crashes.

Results

The results indicated that middle-aged and elderly (35-54, RRR=2.48; and 55 or above, RRR=4.39) casualties and favourable weather conditions (2.56) significantly increased the risk of severe injury among cyclists. The presence of severe head injury (RRR=509.24), severe trunk injury (RRR=79.24), and the involvement of motor vehicles (RRR=27.18) substantially increased the risk of life-threatening injury to cyclists.

Conclusions

Middle-aged casualties, the presence of head injuries, and the involvement of motor vehicles all increase the risk of more severe injury in bicycle-related crashes. Safety education and countermeasures should target at middle-aged and elderly cyclists and discourage cycling on the motorway.

Protective Effect of Unacylated Ghrelin on Compression-Induced Skeletal Muscle Injury Mediated by SIRT1-Signaling

Unacylated ghrelin, the predominant form of circulating ghrelin, protects myotubes from cell death, which is a known attribute of pressure ulcers. In this study, we investigated whether unacylated ghrelin protects skeletal muscle from pressure-induced deep tissue injury by abolishing necroptosis and apoptosis signaling and whether these effects were mediated by SIRT1 pathway. Fifteen adult Sprague Dawley rats were assigned to receive saline or unacylated ghrelin with or without EX527 (a SIRT1 inhibitor). Animals underwent two 6-h compression cycles with 100 mmHg static pressure applied over the mid-tibialis region of the right limb whereas the left uncompressed limb served as the intra-animal control. Muscle tissues underneath the compression region, and at the similar region of the opposite uncompressed limb, were collected for analysis. Unacylated ghrelin attenuated the compression-induced muscle pathohistological alterations including rounding contour of myofibers, extensive nucleus accumulation in the interstitial space, and increased interstitial space. Unacylated ghrelin abolished the increase in necroptosis proteins including RIP1 and RIP3 and attenuated the elevation of apoptotic proteins including p53, Bax, and AIF in the compressed muscle. Furthermore, unacylated ghrelin opposed the compression-induced phosphorylation and acetylation of p65 subunit of NF-kB. The anti-apoptotic effect of unacylated ghrelin was shown by a decrease in apoptotic DNA fragmentation and terminal dUTP nick-end labeling index in the compressed muscle. The protective effects of unacylated ghrelin vanished when co-treated with EX527. Our findings demonstrated that unacylated ghrelin protected skeletal muscle from compression-induced injury. The myoprotective effects of unacylated ghrelin on pressure-induced tissue injury were associated with SIRT1 signaling.

Occupant-level injury severity analyses for taxis in Hong Kong: A Bayesian space-time logistic model

This study aimed to identify the factors affecting the crash-related severity level of injuries in taxis and quantify the associations between these factors and taxi occupant injury severity. Casualties resulting from taxi crashes from 2004 to 2013 in Hong Kong were divided into four categories: taxi drivers, taxi passengers, private car drivers and private car passengers. To avoid any biased interpretation caused by unobserved spatial and temporal effects, a Bayesian hierarchical logistic modeling approach with conditional autoregressive priors was applied, and four different model forms were tested. For taxi drivers and passengers, the model with space-time interaction was proven to most properly address the unobserved heterogeneity effects. The results indicated that time of week, number of vehicles involved, weather, point of impact and driver age were closely associated with taxi drivers' injury severity level in a crash. For taxi passengers' injury severity an additional factor, taxi service area, was influential. To investigate the differences between taxis and other traffic, similar models were established for private car drivers and passengers. The results revealed that although location in the network and driver gender significantly influenced private car drivers' injury severity, they did not influence taxi drivers' injury severity. Compared with taxi passengers, the injury severity of private car passengers was more sensitive to average speed and whether seat belts were worn. Older drivers, urban taxis and fatigued driving were identified as factors that increased taxi occupant injury severity in Hong Kong.

Checkpoint blockade immunotherapy reshapes the high-dimensional phenotypic heterogeneity of murine intratumoural neoantigen-specific CD8+ T cells

The analysis of neoantigen-specific CD8⁺ T cells in tumour-bearing individuals is challenging due to the small pool of tumour antigen-specific T cells. Here we show that mass cytometry with multiplex combinatorial tetramer staining can identify and characterize neoantigen-specific CD8⁺ T cells in mice bearing T3 methylcholanthrene-induced sarcomas that are susceptible to checkpoint blockade immunotherapy. Among 81 candidate antigens tested, we identify T cells restricted to two known neoantigens simultaneously in tumours, spleens and lymph nodes in tumour-bearing mice. High-dimensional phenotypic profiling reveals that antigen-specific, tumour-infiltrating T cells are highly heterogeneous. We further show that neoantigen-specific T cells display a different phenotypic profile in mice treated with anti-CTLA-4 or anti-PD-1 immunotherapy, whereas their peripheral counterparts are not affected by the treatments. Our results provide insights into the nature of neoantigen-specific T cells and the effects of checkpoint blockade immunotherapy.

Immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) therapies can unleash anti-tumour T-cell responses. Here the authors show, by integrating MHC tetramer multiplexing, mass cytometry and high-dimensional analyses, that neoantigen-specific, tumour-infiltrating T cells are highly heterogeneous and are subjected to ICB modulations.

Skeletal Fragility in Children with Chronic Disease

Skeletal fragility associated with underlying childhood chronic disease is a systemic disorder of poor bone growth and reduction in bone turnover which can lead to abnormal bone mass, geometry and microarchitecture. Due to the growth potential unique to children, remarkable bone recovery following a transient threat to the bone can occur if there is concurrent growth. Addressing bone health in these children should focus on improvement in growth, puberty and removing the primary insult. In conditions where there is a little scope for bone recovery and limited residual growth, bone-targeted therapy may need to be considered, even though there is currently limited evidence. The importance of early detection of signs of bone fragility, by active screening for vertebral fracture using newer imaging techniques such as dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry lateral vertebral morphometry, may now be possible. There is currently, a paucity of evidence to support prophylactic use of anti-resorptive therapy. Where poor growth and low bone turnover are seen, the use of growth-promoting therapies and anabolic bone-protective agents may be more physiological and should be evaluated in well-designed trials. Collaborative studies on long-term fracture outcome and well-designed trials of bone-protective therapies are needed and to be encouraged.

The effect of road network patterns on pedestrian safety: A zone-based Bayesian spatial modeling approach

Pedestrian safety is increasingly recognized as a major public health concern. Extensive safety studies have been conducted to examine the influence of multiple variables on the occurrence of pedestrian-vehicle crashes. However, the explicit relationship between pedestrian safety and road network characteristics remains unknown. This study particularly focused on the role of different road network patterns on the occurrence of crashes involving pedestrians. A global integration index via space syntax was introduced to quantify the topological structures of road networks. The Bayesian Poisson-lognormal (PLN) models with conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior were then developed via three different proximity structures: contiguity, geometry-centroid distance, and road network connectivity. The models were also compared with the PLN counterpart without spatial correlation effects. The analysis was based on a comprehensive crash dataset from 131 selected traffic analysis zones in Hong Kong. The results indicated that higher global integration was associated with more pedestrian-vehicle crashes; the irregular pattern network was proved to be safest in terms of pedestrian crash occurrences, whereas the grid pattern was the least safe; the CAR model with a neighborhood structure based on road network connectivity was found to outperform in model goodness-of-fit, implying the importance of accurately accounting for spatial correlation when modeling spatially aggregated crash data.

A multivariate random-parameters Tobit model for analyzing highway crash rates by injury severity

In this study, a multivariate random-parameters Tobit model is proposed for the analysis of crash rates by injury severity. In the model, both correlation across injury severity and unobserved heterogeneity across road-segment observations are accommodated. The proposed model is compared with a multivariate (fixed-parameters) Tobit model in the Bayesian context, by using a crash dataset collected from the Traffic Information System of Hong Kong. The dataset contains crash, road geometric and traffic information on 224 directional road segments for a five-year period (2002-2006). The multivariate random-parameters Tobit model provides a much better fit than its fixed-parameters counterpart, according to the deviance information criteria and Bayesian R², while it reveals a higher correlation between crash rates at different severity levels. The parameter estimates show that a few risk factors (bus stop, lane changing opportunity and lane width) have heterogeneous effects on crash-injury-severity rates. For the other factors, the variances of their random parameters are insignificant at the 95% credibility level, then the random parameters are set to be fixed across observations. Nevertheless, most of these fixed coefficients are estimated with higher precisions (i.e., smaller variances) in the random-parameters model. Thus, the random-parameters Tobit model, which provides a more comprehensive understanding of the factors' effects on crash rates by injury severity, is superior to the multivariate Tobit model and should be considered a good alternative for traffic safety analysis.

Revisiting crash spatial heterogeneity: A Bayesian spatially varying coefficients approach

This study was performed to investigate the spatially varying relationships between crash frequency and related risk factors. A Bayesian spatially varying coefficients model was elaborately introduced as a methodological alternative to simultaneously account for the unstructured and spatially structured heterogeneity of the regression coefficients in predicting crash frequencies. The proposed method was appealing in that the parameters were modeled via a conditional autoregressive prior distribution, which involved a single set of random effects and a spatial correlation parameter with extreme values corresponding to pure unstructured or pure spatially correlated random effects. A case study using a three-year crash dataset from the Hillsborough County, Florida, was conducted to illustrate the proposed model. Empirical analysis confirmed the presence of both unstructured and spatially correlated variations in the effects of contributory factors on severe crash occurrences. The findings also suggested that ignoring spatially structured heterogeneity may result in biased parameter estimates and incorrect inferences, while assuming the regression coefficients to be spatially clustered only is probably subject to the issue of over-smoothness.

Rule extraction from an optimized neural network for traffic crash frequency modeling

This study develops a neural network (NN) model to explore the nonlinear relationship between crash frequency and risk factors. To eliminate the possibility of over-fitting and to deal with the black-box characteristic, a network structure optimization algorithm and a rule extraction method are proposed. A case study compares the performance of the trained and modified NN models with that of the traditional negative binomial (NB) model for analyzing crash frequency on road segments in Hong Kong. The results indicate that the optimized NNs have somewhat better fitting and predictive performance than the NB models. Moreover, the smaller training/testing errors in the optimized NNs with pruned input and hidden nodes demonstrate the ability of the structure optimization algorithm to identify the insignificant factors and to improve the model generalization capacity. Furthermore, the rule-set extracted from the optimized NN model can reveal the effect of each explanatory variable on the crash frequency under different conditions, and implies the existence of nonlinear relationship between factors and crash frequency. With the structure optimization algorithm and rule extraction method, the modified NN model has great potential for modeling crash frequency, and may be considered as a good alternative for road safety analysis.

Bootstrap resampling approach to disaggregate analysis of road crashes in Hong Kong

Road safety affects health and development worldwide; thus, it is essential to examine the factors that influence crashes and injuries. As the relationships between crashes, crash severity, and possible risk factors can vary depending on the type of collision, we attempt to develop separate prediction models for different crash types (i.e., single- versus multi-vehicle crashes and slight injury versus killed and serious injury crashes). Taking advantage of the availability of crash and traffic data disaggregated by time and space, it is possible to identify the factors that may contribute to crash risks in Hong Kong, including traffic flow, road design, and weather conditions. To remove the effects of excess zeros on prediction performance in a highly disaggregated crash prediction model, a bootstrap resampling method is applied. The results indicate that more accurate and reliable parameter estimates, with reduced standard errors, can be obtained with the use of a bootstrap resampling method. Results revealed that factors including rainfall, geometric design, traffic control, and temporal variations all determined the crash risk and crash severity. This helps to shed light on the development of remedial engineering and traffic management and control measures.

A simulation study of the effects of alcohol on driving performance in a Chinese population

Driving under the influence of alcohol (DUIA) is a significant factor contributing to road traffic crashes, injuries, and fatalities. Although the effects of alcohol on driving performance are widely acknowledged, studies of the effects of alcohol impairment on driving performance and particularly on the control system of Chinese adults are rare. This study attempts to evaluate the effects of alcohol on the driving performance of Chinese adults using a driving simulator.

METHOD

A double-blind experimental study was conducted to evaluate the effects of alcohol impairment on the driving performance of 52 Chinese participants using a driving simulator. A series of simulated driving tests covering two driving modules, including emergency braking (EB) and following braking (FB), at 50km/h and 80km/h were performed. Linear mixed models were established to evaluate driving performance in terms of braking reaction time (BRT), the standard deviation of lateral position (SD-LANE), and the standard deviation of speed (SD-SPEED).

RESULTS

Driving performance in terms of BRT and SD-LANE was highly correlated with the level of alcohol consumption, with a one-unit increase in breath alcohol concentration (BrAC) degrading BRT and SD-LANE by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Frequent drinkers generally reacted faster in their BRT than less-frequent drinkers and non-drinkers by 10.2% and 30.6%, respectively. Moreover, alcohol impairment had varying effects on certain aspects of the human control system, and automatic action was less likely to be affected than voluntary action from a psychological viewpoint.

CONCLUSION

The findings should be useful for planning and developing effective measures to combat drink driving in Chinese communities.

Growth and the Growth Hormone-Insulin Like Growth Factor 1 Axis in Children With Chronic Inflammation: Current Evidence, Gaps in Knowledge, and Future Directions

Growth failure is frequently encountered in children with chronic inflammatory conditions like juvenile idiopathic arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, and cystic fibrosis. Delayed puberty and attenuated pubertal growth spurt are often seen during adolescence. The underlying inflammatory state mediated by proinflammatory cytokines, prolonged use of glucocorticoid, and suboptimal nutrition contribute to growth failure and pubertal abnormalities. These factors can impair growth by their effects on the GH-IGF axis and also directly at the level of the growth plate via alterations in chondrogenesis and local growth factor signaling. Recent studies on the impact of cytokines and glucocorticoid on the growth plate further advanced our understanding of growth failure in chronic disease and provided a biological rationale of growth promotion. Targeting cytokines using biological therapy may lead to improvement of growth in some of these children, but approximately one-third continue to grow slowly. There is increasing evidence that the use of relatively high-dose recombinant human GH may lead to partial catch-up growth in chronic inflammatory conditions, although long-term follow-up data are currently limited. In this review, we comprehensively review the growth abnormalities in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, and cystic fibrosis, systemic abnormalities of the GH-IGF axis, and growth plate perturbations. We also systematically reviewed all the current published studies of recombinant human GH in these conditions and discussed the role of recombinant human IGF-1.

Temperature- and sex-related effects of serine protease alleles on larval development in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

The body reserves of adult Lepidoptera are accumulated during larval development. In the Glanville fritillary butterfly, larger body size increases female fecundity, but in males fast larval development and early eclosion, rather than large body size, increase mating success and hence fitness. Larval growth rate is highly heritable, but genetic variation associated with larval development is largely unknown. By comparing the Glanville fritillary population living in the Åland Islands in northern Europe with a population in Nantaizi in China, within the source of the post-glacial range expansion, we identified candidate genes with reduced variation in Åland, potentially affected by selection under cooler climatic conditions than in Nantaizi. We conducted an association study of larval growth traits by genotyping the extremes of phenotypic trait distributions for 23 SNPs in 10 genes. Three genes in clip-domain serine protease family were associated with larval growth rate, development time and pupal weight. Additive effects of two SNPs in the prophenoloxidase-activating proteinase-3 (ProPO3) gene, related to melanization, showed elevated growth rate in high temperature but reduced growth rate in moderate temperature. The allelic effects of the vitellin-degrading protease precursor gene on development time were opposite in the two sexes, one genotype being associated with long development time and heavy larvae in females but short development time in males. Sexually antagonistic selection is here evident in spite of sexual size dimorphism.

Effects of fog, driver experience and gender on driving behavior on S-curved road segments

Driving on curved roads has been recognized as a significant safety issue for many years. However, driver behavior and the interactions among variables that affect driver performance on curves is complicated and not well understood. Previous studies have investigated various factors that influence driver performance on right- or left-turn curves, but have paid little attention to the effects of foggy weather, driver experience and gender on driver performance on complex curves. A driving simulator experiment was conducted in this study to evaluate the relationships between driving behavior on a continuous S-curve and foggy weather, driver experience and gender. The process of negotiating a curve was divided into three stages consisting of a straight segment, the transition from the straight segment to the S-curve and the S-curve. The experimental results indicated that drivers tended to drive more cautiously in heavy fog, but the driving risk was still increased, especially in the transition stage from the straight segment to the S-curve. The non-professional (NP) drivers were less sensitive to the impending change in the road geometry, and less skilled in both longitudinal and lateral vehicle control than the professional drivers. The NP female drivers in particular were found to be the most vulnerable group in S-curve driving.

The inflammatory milieu and the insulin like growth factor axis in children with inflammatory bowel disease following recombinant human growth hormone treatment

It is unclear whether recombinant human growth hormone (rhGH) in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) alters cytokine profile. The objective of this study is to evaluate changes in cytokines and systemic markers of the insulin growth factor axis following 6 months of rhGH treatment in children with IBD. In a six-month randomised control trial in children with IBD treated with rhGH at 0.067 mg/kg/day and controls (11 in each group), we measured pro-, anti-inflammatory cytokines and systemic markers of the IGF axis (total IGF-1, free IGF-1, total IGFBP-3, ALS, IGFBP-2) at baseline (T+0), and six months (T+6). Results expressed as median (range). In the rhGH group, TNFα was 3.1pg/ml (2.9, 100.6) and 3.6pg/ml (3.1, 5.3) at T+0 and T+6, respectively (p=0.85), whereas in the controls this was 3.3pg/ ml (2.7, 4.0) and 3.1pg/m l (2.7, 4.7), respectively (p=0.79). In the rhGH group, IL1β was 18.0pg/ml (5.0,716.7) and 18.0pg/ml (1.7, 52.2) at T+0 and T+6 respectively(p=0.90), whereas in the controls this was 19.8pg/ml (4.1, 27.1) and 19.1pg/ml (2.4,77.3), respectively (p=0.65). None of the twenty-eight other cytokines analysed was different at T+6 in either group. Despite increase in total IGF1 in the rhGH group (p=0.03), free IGF1, IGFBP3, ALS and IGFBP2 did not change in either group at T+6. Percentage change in IGFBP3, was significantly associated with percentage change in IL2 (r=0.77, p=0.009) and IL4 (r=0.58, p=0.01). Percentage change in ALS was significantly associated with percentage change in IL2 (r=0.90, p less than 0.0001) and IL4 (r=0.63, p=0.04). Although changes in markers of the GH/IGF-1 axis do show an association with cytokines (IL-2, IL-4) in pediatric IBD, six months of rhGH treatment was not associated with any significant changes in levels of a range of pro and anti-inflammatory cytokine. Careful evaluation of disease process is required in future trials of rhGH in paediatric IBD.

The likelihood of achieving quantified road safety targets: a binary logistic regression model for possible factors

In past several decades, many countries have set quantified road safety targets to motivate transport authorities to develop systematic road safety strategies and measures and facilitate the achievement of continuous road safety improvement. Studies have been conducted to evaluate the association between the setting of quantified road safety targets and road fatality reduction, in both the short and long run, by comparing road fatalities before and after the implementation of a quantified road safety target. However, not much work has been done to evaluate whether the quantified road safety targets are actually achieved. In this study, we used a binary logistic regression model to examine the factors - including vehicle ownership, fatality rate, and national income, in addition to level of ambition and duration of target - that contribute to a target's success. We analyzed 55 quantified road safety targets set by 29 countries from 1981 to 2009, and the results indicate that targets that are in progress and with lower level of ambitions had a higher likelihood of eventually being achieved. Moreover, possible interaction effects on the association between level of ambition and the likelihood of success are also revealed.

Spatial-temporal analysis of drink-driving patterns in Hong Kong

Normally, bars and restaurants are the preferred locations for drinking. Therefore, there is concern that the roads in bar and restaurant areas could have a higher probability of drink-drivers and alcohol-related road crashes. Many studies have been conducted to model the association between drinking locations and the prevalence of drink-driving, so that cost-effective enforcement strategies can be developed to combat drink-driving. In this study, a cluster analysis approach was applied to model the spatial-temporal variation of drink-driving distribution in Hong Kong. Six spatial-temporal clusters of drink-driving distribution emerged from the data: (i) bar and restaurant area, weekend-overnight; (ii) bar and restaurant area, other timespan; (iii) urban area, weekend-overnight; (iv) urban area, other timespans; (v) rural area, weekend-overnight; and (vi) rural area, other timespans. Next, separate zero-inflated regression models were established to identify the factors contributing to the prevalence of drink-driving for each of the six recognized clusters. The results indicated that drivers in rural areas tend to consume more alcohol than those in urban areas, regardless of the time period. In addition, both seasonal variation and vehicle class were found to determine the breath alcohol concentration (BrAC) levels among drivers.

Emerging resistance in Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi in Hong Kong

A total of 182 Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi isolated from three hospitals in Hong Kong from 1986 to 1992 were tested for their susceptibility to 21 antimicrobial agents. Four percent or less were resistant to chloramphenicol, ampicillin, some of the cephalosporins, nalidixic acid, tetracycline and trimethoprim and 6% to 1024 mg/l sulfamethoxazole. All were susceptible to the aminoglycosides and the 4-quinolones. Nineteen isolates were resistant to at least 1, and up to 9, antibiotics. Of 8 chloramphenicolor multiply-resistant isolates studied, only 3 could transfer their resistances while resistance of one could only be mobilized. Four of 5 ampicillin-resistant strains produced a beta-lactamase of pI 5.5. Antibiotic resistances were mediated by plasmids of 106, 116 or 221 kb of incompatibility groups H, I1 and K. Three resistant isolates did not harbour any plasmid. A total of 43 (24%) S. Typhi harboured plasmids ranging in size from 4.3 to 221 kb. Plasmids of 106 kb and 8.5 kb were found in 17 and 10 isolates, respectively. Restriction enzyme digestion of these two plasmids showed that each could be differentiated into 3 types. Of 89 isolates that were phage typed, 38% were untypable, while 17% and 12% were of phage types E1 and A, respectively, and the rest belonged to 17 other types.

The roles of exposure and speed in road safety analysis

Speed is a determining factor in road safety analysis. It is generally believed that an increase in speed harms road safety. However, it can also be argued that driving at high speed reduces the length of time exposure and thus the likelihood of a crash. It is therefore critical to clarify the roles that exposure and speed play in road safety analysis. This study evaluates the relationship between speed and crash risk with respect to distance and time exposure, using disaggregated crash and speed data collected from 112 road segments in Hong Kong. A joint probability model based on a full Bayesian method is applied simultaneously to model crash occurrence and crash severity. In addition, we consider the explanatory variables, including road design, weather conditions, and temporal distribution, in the proposed crash prediction model. The results indicate that average speed plays a significant role in crash risk, despite opposing correlations with respect to distance and time exposure; the correlation between speed and crash risk is positive when distance exposure is considered, but negative when time exposure is used. However, in both cases, speed is positively associated with the injury severity.