Causal Associations of Anthropometric Measurements With Fracture Risk and Bone Mineral Density: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Uncovering additional causal clinical traits and exposure variables is important when studying osteoporosis mechanisms and for the prevention of osteoporosis. Until recently, the causal relationship between anthropometric measurements and osteoporosis had not been fully revealed. In the present study, we utilized several state-of-the-art Mendelian randomization (MR) methods to investigate whether height, body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), hip circumference (HC), and waist circumference (WC) are causally associated with two major characteristics of osteoporosis, bone mineral density (BMD) and fractures. Genomewide significant (p  ≤ 5 × 10^-8 ) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with the five anthropometric variables were obtained from previous large-scale genomewide association studies (GWAS) and were utilized as instrumental variables. Summary-level data of estimated bone mineral density (eBMD) and fractures were obtained from a large-scale UK Biobank GWAS. Of the MR methods utilized, the inverse-variance weighted method was the primary method used for analysis, and the weighted-median, MR-Egger, mode-based estimate, and MR pleiotropy residual sum and outlier methods were utilized for sensitivity analyses. The results of the present study indicated that each increase in height equal to a single standard deviation (SD) was associated with a 9.9% increase in risk of fracture (odds ratio [OR] = 1.099; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.067-1.133; p = 8.793 × 10^-10 ) and a 0.080 SD decrease of estimated bone mineral density (95% CI -0.106-(-0.054); p = 2.322 × 10^-9 ). We also found that BMI was causally associated with eBMD (beta = 0.129, 95% CI 0.065-0.194; p = 8.113 × 10^-5 ) but not associated with fracture. The WHR adjusted for BMI, HC adjusted for BMI, and WC adjusted for BMI were not found to be related to fracture occurrence or eBMD. In conclusion, the present study provided genetic evidence for certain causal relationships between anthropometric measurements and bone mineral density or fracture risk. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Sarcopenia Definitions as Predictors of Fracture Risk Independent of FRAX® , Falls, and BMD in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study: A Meta-Analysis

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-derived appendicular lean mass/height2 (ALM/ht2 ) is the most commonly used estimate of muscle mass in the assessment of sarcopenia, but its predictive value for fracture is substantially attenuated by femoral neck (fn) bone mineral density (BMD). We investigated predictive value of 11 sarcopenia definitions for incident fracture, independent of fnBMD, fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX® ) probability, and prior falls, using an extension of Poisson regression in US, Sweden, and Hong Kong Osteoporois Fractures in Men Study (MrOS) cohorts. Definitions tested were those of Baumgartner and Delmonico (ALM/ht2 only), Morley, the International Working Group on Sarcopenia, European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP1 and 2), Asian Working Group on Sarcopenia, Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) 1 and 2 (using ALM/body mass index [BMI], incorporating muscle strength and/or physical performance measures plus ALM/ht2 ), and Sarcopenia Definitions and Outcomes Consortium (gait speed and grip strength). Associations were adjusted for age and time since baseline and reported as hazard ratio (HR) for first incident fracture, here major osteoporotic fracture (MOF; clinical vertebral, hip, distal forearm, proximal humerus). Further analyses adjusted additionally for FRAX-MOF probability (n = 7531; calculated ± fnBMD), prior falls (y/n), or fnBMD T-score. Results were synthesized by meta-analysis. In 5660 men in USA, 2764 Sweden and 1987 Hong Kong (mean ages 73.5, 75.4, and 72.4 years, respectively), sarcopenia prevalence ranged from 0.5% to 35%. Sarcopenia status, by all definitions except those of FNIH, was associated with incident MOF (HR = 1.39 to 2.07). Associations were robust to adjustment for prior falls or FRAX probability (without fnBMD); adjustment for fnBMD T-score attenuated associations. EWGSOP2 severe sarcopenia (incorporating chair stand time, gait speed, and grip strength plus ALM) was most predictive, albeit at low prevalence, and appeared only modestly influenced by inclusion of fnBMD. In conclusion, the predictive value for fracture of sarcopenia definitions based on ALM is reduced by adjustment for fnBMD but strengthened by additional inclusion of physical performance measures. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Knowledge and Needs of Resident Physicians Regarding Osteoporosis: A Nationwide Survey of Residents

Large‐scale studies have not addressed the knowledge level of US resident physicians regarding osteoporosis management. We gauged the knowledge level of family medicine, internal medicine, and obstetrics and gynecology resident physicians regarding osteoporosis management. In 2019, we sent an anonymous survey via e‐mail to all program directors of Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education–accredited residency programs in family medicine, internal medicine, and obstetrics and gynecology for distribution to resident physicians. Knowledge items assessed osteoporosis screening, diagnosis, and treatment. We received responses from 182 family medicine, 275 internal medicine, and 122 obstetrics and gynecology programs. Of 582 resident physician respondents, 31% were family medicine residents, 47% were internal medicine residents, and 21% were obstetrics and gynecology residents. Although 77% of respondents correctly selected the T‐score threshold for the diagnosis of osteoporosis among persons aged 50 years and older (−2.5), only 20% of respondents correctly identified minimal‐trauma hip fracture as being diagnostic of osteoporosis. One‐third of respondents correctly identified which medications were demonstrated in clinical trials to decrease hip fracture risk. Fifteen percent of respondents correctly identified that denosumab and alendronate are associated with osteonecrosis of the jaw; and 40% of respondents correctly identified that decline in bone density is more rapid after discontinuation of denosumab than after discontinuation of bisphosphonates. Less than half of resident physicians knew that bisphosphonate‐associated atypical femoral fractures are duration‐dependent. One‐quarter of respondents felt not at all prepared to manage osteoporosis. In this nationwide survey of resident physicians, knowledge regarding osteoporosis diagnosis and treatment was poor, with a striking lack of knowledge regarding the two most serious adverse effects of osteoporosis pharmacotherapy (osteonecrosis of the jaw and atypical femoral fractures). The undertreatment of osteoporosis is unlikely to improve without increased education of resident physicians. © 2021 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Fall prevention interventions in primary care to reduce fractures and falls in people aged 70 years and over: the PreFIT three-arm cluster RCT

BACKGROUND

Falls and fractures are a major problem.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative falls prevention interventions.

DESIGN

Three-arm, pragmatic, cluster randomised controlled trial with parallel economic analysis. The unit of randomisation was the general practice.

SETTING

Primary care.

PARTICIPANTS

People aged ≥ 70 years.

INTERVENTIONS

All practices posted an advice leaflet to each participant. Practices randomised to active intervention arms (exercise and multifactorial falls prevention) screened participants for falls risk using a postal questionnaire. Active treatments were delivered to participants at higher risk of falling.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was fracture rate over 18 months, captured from Hospital Episode Statistics, general practice records and self-report. Secondary outcomes were falls rate, health-related quality of life, mortality, frailty and health service resource use. Economic evaluation was expressed in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year and incremental net monetary benefit.

RESULTS

Between 2011 and 2014, we randomised 63 general practices (9803 participants): 21 practices (3223 participants) to advice only, 21 practices (3279 participants) to exercise and 21 practices (3301 participants) to multifactorial falls prevention. In the active intervention arms, 5779 out of 6580 (87.8%) participants responded to the postal fall risk screener, of whom 2153 (37.3%) were classed as being at higher risk of falling and invited for treatment. The rate of intervention uptake was 65% (697 out of 1079) in the exercise arm and 71% (762 out of 1074) in the multifactorial falls prevention arm. Overall, 379 out of 9803 (3.9%) participants sustained a fracture. There was no difference in the fracture rate between the advice and exercise arms (rate ratio 1.20, 95% confidence interval 0.91 to 1.59) or between the advice and multifactorial falls prevention arms (rate ratio 1.30, 95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.71). There was no difference in falls rate over 18 months (exercise arm: rate ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.86 to 1.14; multifactorial falls prevention arm: rate ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 0.98 to 1.30). A lower rate of falls was observed in the exercise arm at 8 months (rate ratio 0.78, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.96), but not at other time points. There were 289 (2.9%) deaths, with no differences by treatment arm. There was no evidence of effects in prespecified subgroup comparisons, nor in nested intention-to-treat analyses that considered only those at higher risk of falling. Exercise provided the highest expected quality-adjusted life-years (1.120), followed by advice and multifactorial falls prevention, with 1.106 and 1.114 quality-adjusted life-years, respectively. NHS costs associated with exercise (£3720) were lower than the costs of advice (£3737) or of multifactorial falls prevention (£3941). Although incremental differences between treatment arms were small, exercise dominated advice, which in turn dominated multifactorial falls prevention. The incremental net monetary benefit of exercise relative to treatment valued at £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year is modest, at £191, and for multifactorial falls prevention is £613. Exercise is the most cost-effective treatment. No serious adverse events were reported.

LIMITATIONS

The rate of fractures was lower than anticipated.

CONCLUSIONS

Screen-and-treat falls prevention strategies in primary care did not reduce fractures. Exercise resulted in a short-term reduction in falls and was cost-effective.

FUTURE WORK

Exercise is the most promising intervention for primary care. Work is needed to ensure adequate uptake and sustained effects.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN71002650.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 34. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Bone Mineral Density at the Time of Initiating Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy Is Associated With Decreased Fractures in Women With Breast Cancer

Women with estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer who receive an aromatase inhibitor (AI) are at risk for fractures. We aim to determine if dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans made at the time of AI initiation are associated with decreased fractures. We retrospectively identified 25,158 women with local or regional breast cancer diagnosed between 2005 and 2013 who received AI therapy between 2007 and 2013 from the Medicare-linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program and Texas Cancer Registry databases. We defined baseline DXA screening using claims made between 1 year before and 6 months after each patient's first AI claim to examine determinants of baseline screening using a multivariable GENMOD model. We included a propensity score adjustment in Cox proportional hazard models to assess the association between time-varying DXA screening and the risk of fractures. Additionally, we compared the use of antiresorptive therapy drugs between the two groups. Of the study cohort, 14,738 (58.6%) received DXA screening. The screening rates increased annually from 52.1% in 2007 to 61.7% in 2013. Higher screening rates were observed in patients with younger age, married status, non-Hispanic white race, localized disease, fewer comorbidities, more than one type of aromatase inhibitor drug claim, no state buy-in (surrogate for low socioeconomic status), higher education level, and prior osteoporosis diagnosis. Baseline DXA screening was associated with decreased risk of subsequent fractures (hazard ratio = 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.97, p < .001) after multivariable and propensity score adjustment. Bone-modifying drugs were prescribed to 4440 (30.1%) patients with screening compared with 1766 (16.9%) without (p < .001). Of the 4440 patients who received treatment, 95% received bisphosphonates. Our study demonstrated baseline DXA screening was associated with a decreased risk of fractures and a higher likelihood of receiving antiresorptive therapies. Improvement of the baseline DXA screening is still needed in practice. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

The Sydney AFF Score: A Simple Tool to Distinguish Females Presenting With Atypical Femur Fractures Versus Typical Femur Fractures

Atypical femur fractures (AFF) are a rare but serious complication of long-term bisphosphonate use. Although clearly defined by ASBMR criteria, a proportion of patients with AFFs may go unrecognized and the use of qualitative fracture criteria may lead to uncertainty in AFF diagnosis, with significant therapeutic implications. A score that rapidly and accurately identifies AFFs among subtrochanteric femur fractures using quantitative, measurable parameters is needed. In a retrospective cohort of 110 female patients presenting with AFFs or typical femur fractures (TFFs), multiple logistic regression and decision tree analysis were used to develop the Sydney AFF score. This score, based on demographic and femoral geometry variables, uses three dichotomized independent predictors and adds one point for each: (age ≤80 years) + (femoral neck width <37 mm) + (lateral cortical width at lesser trochanter ≥5 mm), (score, 0 to 3). In an independent validation set of 53 female patients at a different centre in Sydney, a score ≥2 demonstrated 73.3% sensitivity and 69.6% specificity for AFF (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.775, SE 0.063) and remained independently associated with AFF after adjustment for bisphosphonate use. The Sydney AFF score provides a quantitative means of flagging female patients with atraumatic femur fractures who have sustained an AFF as opposed to a TFF. This distinction has clear management implications and may augment current ASBMR diagnostic criteria. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Predictive Value of DXA Appendicular Lean Mass for Incident Fractures, Falls, and Mortality, Independent of Prior Falls, FRAX, and BMD: Findings from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI)

In the Women's Health Initiative (WHI), we investigated associations between baseline dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) appendicular lean mass (ALM) and risk of incident fractures, falls, and mortality (separately for each outcome) among older postmenopausal women, accounting for bone mineral density (BMD), prior falls, and Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX® ) probability. The WHI is a prospective study of postmenopausal women undertaken at 40 US sites. We used an extension of Poisson regression to investigate the relationship between baseline ALM (corrected for height2 ) and incident fracture outcomes, presented here for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF: hip, clinical vertebral, forearm, or proximal humerus), falls, and death. Associations were adjusted for age, time since baseline and randomization group, or additionally for femoral neck (FN) BMD, prior falls, or FRAX probability (MOF without BMD) and are reported as gradient of risk (GR: hazard ratio for first incident fracture per SD increment) in ALM/height2 (GR). Data were available for 11,187 women (mean [SD] age 63.3 [7.4] years). In the base models (adjusted for age, follow-up time, and randomization group), greater ALM/height2 was associated with lower risk of incident MOF (GR = 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83-0.94). The association was independent of prior falls but was attenuated by FRAX probability. Adjustment for FN BMD T-score led to attenuation and inversion of the risk relationship (GR = 1.06; 95% CI 0.98-1.14). There were no associations between ALM/height2 and incident falls. However, there was a 7% to 15% increase in risk of death during follow-up for each SD greater ALM/height2 , depending on specific adjustment. In WHI, and consistent with our findings in older men (Osteoporotic Fractures in Men [MrOS] study cohorts), the predictive value of DXA-ALM for future clinical fracture is attenuated (and potentially inverted) after adjustment for femoral neck BMD T-score. However, intriguing positive, but modest, associations between ALM/height2 and mortality remain robust. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Bisphosphonates to reduce bone fractures in stage 3B+ chronic kidney disease: a propensity score-matched cohort study

BACKGROUND

Bisphosphonates are contraindicated in patients with stage 4+ chronic kidney disease. However, they are widely used to prevent fragility fractures in stage 3 chronic kidney disease, despite a lack of good-quality data on their effects.

OBJECTIVES

The aims of each work package were as follows. Work package 1: to study the relationship between bisphosphonate use and chronic kidney disease progression. Work package 2: to study the association between using bisphosphonates and fracture risk. Work package 3: to determine the risks of hypocalcaemia, hypophosphataemia, acute kidney injury and upper gastrointestinal events associated with using bisphosphonates. Work package 4: to investigate the association between using bisphosphonates and changes in bone mineral density over time.

DESIGN

This was a new-user cohort study design with propensity score matching.

SETTING AND DATA SOURCES

Data were obtained from UK NHS primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database) and linked hospital inpatient records (Hospital Episode Statistics) for work packages 1-3 and from the Danish Odense University Hospital Databases for work package 4.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients registered in the data sources who had at least one measurement of estimated glomerular filtration rate of < 45 ml/minute/1.73 m2 were eligible. A second estimated glomerular filtration rate value of < 45 ml/minute/1.73 m2 within 1 year after the first was requested for work packages 1 and 3. Patients with no Hospital Episode Statistics linkage were excluded from work packages 1-3. Patients with < 1 year of run-in data before index estimated glomerular filtration rate and previous users of anti-osteoporosis medications were excluded from work packages 1-4.

INTERVENTIONS/EXPOSURE

Bisphosphonate use, identified from primary care prescriptions (for work packages 1-3) or pharmacy dispensations (for work package 4), was the main exposure.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Work package 1: chronic kidney disease progression, defined as stage worsening or starting renal replacement. Work package 2: hip fracture. Work package 3: acute kidney injury, hypocalcaemia and hypophosphataemia identified from Hospital Episode Statistics, and gastrointestinal events identified from Clinical Practice Research Datalink or Hospital Episode Statistics. Work package 4: annualised femoral neck bone mineral density percentage change.

RESULTS

Bisphosphonate use was associated with an excess risk of chronic kidney disease progression (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.12, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.24) in work package 1, but did not increase the probability of other safety outcomes in work package 3. The results from work package 2 suggested that bisphosphonate use increased fracture risk (hazard ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval 1.13 to 1.39) for hip fractures, but sensitivity analyses suggested that this was related to unresolved confounding. Conversely, work package 4 suggested that bisphosphonates improved bone mineral density, with an average 2.65% (95% confidence interval 1.32% to 3.99%) greater gain in femoral neck bone mineral density per year in bisphosphonate users than in matched non-users.

LIMITATIONS

Confounding by indication was a concern for the clinical effectiveness (i.e. work package 2) data. Bias analyses suggested that these findings were due to inappropriate adjustment for pre-treatment risk. work packages 3 and 4 were based on small numbers of events and participants, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Bisphosphonates were associated with a 12% excess risk of chronic kidney disease progression in participants with stage 3B+ chronic kidney disease. No other safety concerns were identified. Bisphosphonate therapy increased bone mineral density, but the research team failed to demonstrate antifracture effectiveness.

FUTURE WORK

Randomised controlled trial data are needed to demonstrate antifracture efficacy in patients with stage 3B+ chronic kidney disease. More safety analyses are needed to characterise the renal toxicity of bisphosphonates in stage 3A chronic kidney disease, possibly using observational data.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as EUPAS10029.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 17. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. The project was also supported by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford.

Evaluating and Strengthening the Evidence for Nutritional Bone Research: Ready to Break New Ground?

A healthy diet is essential to attain genetically determined peak bone mass and maintain optimal skeletal health across the adult lifespan. Despite the importance of nutrition for bone health, many of the nutritional requirements of the skeleton across the lifespan remain underexplored, poorly understood, or controversial. With increasingly aging populations, combined with rapidly changing diets and lifestyles globally, one anticipates large increases in the prevalence of osteoporosis and incidence of osteoporotic fractures. Robust, transparent, and reproducible nutrition research is a cornerstone for developing reliable public health recommendations to prevent osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. However, nutrition research is often criticized or ignored by healthcare professionals due to the overemphasis of weak science, conflicting, confusing or implausible findings, industry interests, common misconceptions, and strong opinions. Conversely, spurious research findings are often overemphasized or misconstrued by the media or prominent figures especially via social media, potentially leading to confusion and a lack of trust by the general public. Recently, reforms of the broader discipline of nutrition science have been suggested and promoted, leading to new tools and recommendations to attempt to address these issues. In this perspective, we provide a brief overview of what has been achieved in the field on nutrition and bone health, focusing on osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. We discuss what we view as some of the challenges, including inherent difficulties in assessing diet and its change, disentangling complex interactions between dietary components and between diet and other factors, selection of bone-related outcomes for nutrition studies, obtaining evidence with more unbiased designs, and perhaps most importantly, ensuring the trust of the public and healthcare professionals. This perspective also provides specific recommendations and highlights new developments and future opportunities for scientists studying nutrition and bone health. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Bone From Blood: Characteristics and Clinical Implications of Circulating Osteogenic Progenitor (COP) Cells

Circulating osteogenic progenitor (COP) cells are a population of cells in the peripheral blood with the capacity for bone formation, as well as broader differentiation into mesoderm-like cells in vitro. Although some of their biological characteristics are documented in vitro, their role in diseases of the musculoskeletal system remains yet to be fully evaluated. In this review, we provide an overview of the role of COP cells in a number of physiological and pathological conditions, as well as identify areas for future research. In addition, we suggest possible areas for clinical utilization in the management of musculoskeletal diseases. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Bone Turnover Markers Do Not Predict Fracture Risk in Type 2 Diabetes

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is characterized by increased fracture risk despite higher BMD and reduced bone turnover. BMD underestimates fracture risk in T2D, but the predictive role of bone turnover markers (BTMs) on fracture risk in T2D has not been explored. Thus, we sought to determine whether BTMs predict incident fractures in subjects with T2D. For this case-cohort study, we used data from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study of well-functioning older adults, aged 70 to 79 years at baseline (April 1997-June 1998). The case-cohort sample consisted of (i) the cases, composed of all 223 participants who experienced incident fractures of the hip, clinical spine, or distal forearm within the first 9 years of study follow-up; and (ii) the subcohort of 508 randomly sampled participants from three strata at baseline (T2D, prediabetes, and normoglycemia) from the entire Health ABC cohort. A total of 690 subjects (223 cases, of whom 41 were in the subcohort) were included in analyses. BTMs (C-terminal telopeptide of type I collagen [CTX], osteocalcin [OC], and procollagen type 1 N-terminal propeptide [P1NP]) were measured in archived baseline serum. Cox regression with robust variance estimation was used to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for fracture per 20% increase in BTMs. In nondiabetes (prediabetes plus normoglycemia), fracture risk was increased with higher CTX (HR 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.20 for each 20% increase in CTX). Risk was not increased in T2D (HR 0.92; 95% CI, 0.81 to 1.04; p for interaction .045). Similarly, both OC and P1NP were associated with higher risk of fracture in nondiabetes, but not in T2D, with p for interaction of .078 and .109, respectively. In conclusion, BTMs did not predict incident fracture risk in T2D but were modestly associated with fracture risk in nondiabetes. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Incidence of Fractures Before and After Dialysis Initiation

Fractures are common in dialysis patients, but little is known about the trajectory of incidence rates of different types of fractures before and after dialysis initiation. To address this, we investigated the incidence of major fractures before and after dialysis initiation. We performed a retrospective statistical analysis using the Swedish Renal Registry of 9041 incident dialysis patients (median age 67 years, 67% men) starting dialysis 2005 through 2015 to identify major fractures (hip, spine, humerus, and forearm) occurring during the dialysis transition period from 1 year before until 1 year after dialysis initiation. Using flexible parametric hazard models and the Fine-Gray model, we estimated adjusted fracture incidence rates and predictors of major fractures. We identified 361 cases with primary diagnosis of major fracture, of which 196 (54%) were hip fractures. The crude incidence rate of major fractures before dialysis initiation was 17 per 1000 patient-years (n = 157) and after dialysis initiation it was 24 per 1000 patient-years (n = 204). The adjusted incidence rate of major fractures began to increase 6 months before dialysis initiation, and then stabilized at a higher rate after 1 year. The adjusted incidence rate of hip fractures started to increase sharply 3 months before dialysis initiation, peaked at initiation, and declined thereafter. In contrast, the adjusted incidence rate of non-hip fractures was stable during the transition period and gradually increased over time. Higher age, female sex, and history of previous major fractures were associated with increased fracture incidence both before and after dialysis initiation. We conclude that the incidence of major fractures, especially hip fractures, start to rise 6 months before initiation of dialysis therapy, indicating that heightened surveillance with implementation of preventive measures to avoid fractures is warranted during the transition period to dialysis. © 2020 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Association Between Recurrent Fracture Risk and Implementation of Fracture Liaison Services in Four Swedish Hospitals: A Cohort Study

Structured secondary preventions programs, called fracture liaison services (FLSs), increase the rate of evaluation with bone densitometry and use of osteoporosis medication after fracture. However, the evidence regarding the effect on the risk of recurrent fracture is insufficient. The aim of this study was to investigate if implementation of FLS was associated with reduced risk of recurrent fractures. In this retrospective cohort study, electronic health records during 2012 to 2017 were used to identify a total of 21,083 patients from four hospitals in Western Sweden, two with FLS (n = 15,449) and two without (n = 5634). All patients aged 50 years or older (mean age 73.9 [SD 12.4] years, 76% women) with a major osteoporotic index fracture (hip, clinical spine, humerus, radius, and pelvis) were included. The primary outcome was recurrent major osteoporotic fracture. All patients with an index fracture during the FLS period (n = 13,946) were compared with all patients in the period before FLS implementation (n = 7137) in an intention-to-treat analysis. Time periods corresponding to the FLS hospitals were used for the non-FLS hospitals. In the hospitals with FLSs, there were 1247 recurrent fractures during a median follow-up time of 2.2 years (range 0-6 years). In an unadjusted Cox model, the risk of recurrent fracture was 18% lower in the FLS period compared with the control period (hazard ratio = 0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-0.92, p = .001), corresponding to a 3-year number needed to screen of 61, and did not change after adjustment for clinical risk factors. In the hospitals without FLSs, no change in recurrent fracture rate was observed. Treatment decisions were made according to the Swedish treatment guidelines. In conclusion, implementation of FLS was associated with a reduced risk of recurrent fracture, indicating that FLSs should be included routinely at hospitals treating fracture patients. © 2020 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

A Single Infusion of Zoledronate in Postmenopausal Women Following Denosumab Discontinuation Results in Partial Conservation of Bone Mass Gains

Discontinuation of denosumab is associated with a rapid return of bone mineral density (BMD) to baseline and an increased risk of multiple vertebral fractures. No subsequent treatment regimen has yet been established for preventing either loss of BMD or multiple vertebral fractures after denosumab discontinuation. The aim of this 8-year observational study was to investigate the effect of a single zoledronate infusion, administered 6 months after the last denosumab injection, on fracture occurrence and loss of BMD. We report on 120 women with postmenopausal osteoporosis who were treated with 60 mg denosumab every 6 months for 2 to 5 years (mean duration 3 years) and then 5 mg zoledronate 6 months after the last denosumab injection. All patients were evaluated clinically, by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA), before the first and after the last denosumab injection and at 2.5 years (median) after denosumab discontinuation. During this off-treatment period, 3 vertebral fractures (1.1 per 100 patient-years) and 4 nonvertebral fractures (1.5 per 100 patient-years) occurred. No patients developed multiple vertebral fractures. Sixty-six percent (confidence interval [CI] 57% to 75%) of BMD gained with denosumab was retained at the lumbar spine and 49% (CI 31% to 67%) at the total hip. There was no significant difference in the decrease of BMD between patients with BMD gains of >9% versus <9% while treated with denosumab. Previous antiresorptive treatment or prevalent fractures had no impact on the decrease of BMD, and all bone loss occurred within the first 18 months after zoledronate infusion. In conclusion, a single infusion of 5 mg zoledronate after a 2- to 5-year denosumab treatment cycle retained more than half of the gained BMD and was not associated with multiple vertebral fractures, as reported in patients who discontinued denosumab without subsequent bisphosphonate treatment. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Association of Tramadol Use With Risk of Hip Fracture

Several professional organizations have recommended tramadol as one of the first-line or second-line therapies for patients with chronic noncancer pain and its prescription has been increasing rapidly worldwide; however, the safety profile of tramadol, such as risk of fracture, remains unclear. This study aimed to examine the association of tramadol with risk of hip fracture. Among individuals age 50 years or older without a history of hip fracture, cancer, or opioid use disorder in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database in the United Kingdom general practice (2000-2017), five sequential propensity score-matched cohort studies were assembled, ie, participants who initiated tramadol or those who initiated one of the following medications: codeine (n = 146,956) (another commonly used weak opioid), naproxen (n = 115,109) or ibuprofen (n = 107,438) (commonly used nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs [NSAIDs]), celecoxib (n = 43,130), or etoricoxib (n = 27,689) (cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors). The outcome was incident hip fracture over 1 year. After propensity-score matching, the included participants had a mean age of 65.7 years and 56.9% were women. During the 1-year follow-up, 518 hip fracture (3.7/1000 person-years) occurred in the tramadol cohort and 401 (2.9/1000 person-years) occurred in the codeine cohort. Compared with codeine, hazard ratio (HR) of hip fracture for tramadol was 1.28 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13 to 1.46). Risk of hip fracture was also higher in the tramadol cohort than in the naproxen (2.9/1000 person-years for tramadol, 1.7/1000 person-years for naproxen; HR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.41 to 2.03), ibuprofen (3.4/1000 person-years for tramadol, 2.0/1000 person-years for ibuprofen; HR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.39 to 1.96), celecoxib (3.4/1000 person-years for tramadol, 1.8/1000 person-years for celecoxib; HR = 1.85, 95% CI 1.40 to 2.44), or etoricoxib (2.9/1000 person-years for tramadol, 1.5/1000 person-years for etoricoxib; HR = 1.96, 95% CI 1.34 to 2.87) cohort. In this population-based cohort study, the initiation of tramadol was associated with a higher risk of hip fracture than initiation of codeine and commonly used NSAIDs, suggesting a need to revisit several guidelines on tramadol use in clinical practice. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Smoking and Alcohol Intake but Not Muscle Strength in Young Men Increase Fracture Risk at Middle Age: A Cohort Study Linked to the Swedish National Patient Registry

We aimed to determine the relationship between handgrip strength, smoking, and alcohol consumption in young men and fracture risk at middle age. Thus, we carried out a cohort study including young men undergoing conscription examination in Sweden from September 1969 to May 1970 at a typical age of 18 years. Data on muscle strength, height, weight, and lifestyle factors were linked to the National Patient Register 1987-2010. Handgrip strength was considered the main exposure and smoking and alcohol consumption as secondary exposures. Outcomes were all fractures (except face, skull, digits), major osteoporotic fractures (thoracic/lumbar spine, proximal humerus, distal forearm or hip), and major traumatic fractures (shaft of humerus, forearm, femur, or lower leg) based on ICD-9 and -10 codes. We used Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) according to handgrip strength as a continuous variable (per 1 SD), after adjustment for weight, height, parental education, smoking, and alcohol consumption. A total of 40,112 men were included, contributing 892,572 person-years. Overall, 3974 men fractured in middle age with the incidence rate (95% CI) of 44.5 (43.2-45.9) per 1000 person-years. The corresponding rates were12.2 and 5.6 per 1000 person-years for major osteoporotic and traumatic fractures, respectively. Handgrip strength-adjusted HR (95% CI) was 1.01 (0.98-1.05), 0.94 (0.88-1.00), and 0.98 (0.88-1.08) per SD for all, major osteoporotic, and major traumatic fractures, respectively. Adjusted HR (95% CI) for smokers (>21 cigarettes/d) was 1.44 (1.21, 1.71) for all fractures, while the association between alcohol consumption and hazards of fracture was J-shaped. Therefore, young adult handgrip strength was not associated with fracture risk in middle-age men, although smoking and high alcohol consumption did confer an increased risk. © 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

A Novel Fracture Prediction Model Using Machine Learning in a Community-Based Cohort

The prediction of fracture risk in osteoporotic patients has been a topic of interest for decades, and models have been developed for the accurate prediction of fracture, including the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX). As machine-learning methodologies have recently emerged as a potential model for medical prediction tools, we aimed to develop a novel fracture prediction model using machine-learning methods in a prospective community-based cohort. In this study, 2227 participants (1257 females) with a baseline bone mineral density (BMD) and trabecular bone score were enrolled from the Ansung cohort. The primary endpoint was the fragility fractures reported by patients or confirmed by X-rays. We used 3 different models: CatBoost, support vector machine (SVM), and logistic regression. During a mean 7.5-year follow-up (range, 2.5 to 10 years), fragility fractures occurred in 537 (25.6%) of participants. In predicting total fragility fractures, the area under the curve (AUC) values of the CatBoost, SVM, and logistic regression models were 0.688, 0.500, and 0.614, respectively. The AUC value of CatBoost was significantly better than that of FRAX (0.663; p < 0.001), whereas the the SVM and logistic regression models were not. Compared with the conventional models such as SVM and logistic regression, the CatBoost model had the best performance in predicting total fragility fractures (p < 0.001). According to feature importance in the CatBoost model, the top predicting factors (listed in order) were total hip, lumbar spine, and femur neck BMD, subjective arthralgia score, serum creatinine, and homocysteine. The latter three factors were listed higher than conventional predictors such as age or previous fracture history. In summary, we hereby report the development of a prediction model for fragility fractures using a machine-learning method, CatBoost, which outperforms the FRAX model as well as two conventional machine-learning models. The model was also able to propose novel high-ranking predictors. © 2020 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Targeting Bortezomib to Bone Increases Its Bone Anabolic Activity and Reduces Systemic Adverse Effects in Mice

Bortezomib (Btz) is a proteasome inhibitor approved by the FDA to treat multiple myeloma. It also increases bone volume by promoting osteoblast differentiation and inhibiting osteoclastogenesis in mice. However, Btz has severe systemic adverse effects, which would limit its use as a bone anabolic agent. Here, we designed and synthesized a bone-targeted form of Btz by conjugating it to a bisphosphonate (BP) with no antiresorptive activity. We report that BP-Btz inhibited osteoclast formation and bone resorption and stimulated osteoblast differentiation in vitro similar to Btz. In vivo, BP-Btz increased bone volume more effectively than Btz in three mouse models: untreated wild-type mice, mice with ovariectomy, and aged mice with tibial factures. Importantly, BP-Btz had significantly less systemic side effects than Btz, including less thymic cell death, sympathetic nerve damage, and thrombocytopenia, and it improved survival rates in aged mice. Thus, BP-Btz represents a novel anabolic agent to treat conditions, such as postmenopausal and age-related bone loss. Bone targeting is an attractive approach to repurpose approved drugs to treat skeletal diseases. © 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Do Additional Clinical Risk Factors Improve the Performance of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) Among Postmenopausal Women? Findings From the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study and Clinical Trials

The ability of the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) to discriminate between women who do and do not experience major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) is suboptimal. Adding common clinical risk factors may improve discrimination. We used data from the Women's Health Initiative, a prospective study of women aged 50 to 79 years at baseline (n = 99,413; n = 5722 in BMD subset) enrolled at 40 US clinical centers. The primary outcome was incident MOFs assessed annually during 10 years' follow-up. For prediction of incident MOF, we examined the area under the receiver operatic characteristic curve (AUC) and net reclassification index (NRI) of the FRAX model alone and FRAX plus additional risk factors (singly or together: type 2 diabetes mellitus, frequent falls [≥2 falls in the past year], vasomotor symptoms, self-reported physical function score [RAND 36-item Health Survey subscale), and lumbar spine BMD). For NRI calculations, high risk was defined as predicted MOF risk ≥20%. We also assessed calibration as observed MOF events/expected MOF events. The AUC value for FRAX without BMD information was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.65 to 0.66). Compared with the FRAX model (without BMD), the AUC value was not improved by the addition of vasomotor symptoms, diabetes, or frequent falls, but was minimally increased by adding physical function score (AUC 0.66, 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.67). FRAX was well-calibrated for MOF prediction. The NRI of FRAX + additional variables versus FRAX alone was 5.7% (p < 0.001) among MOF cases and -1.7% among noncases (p > 0.99). Additional variables (diabetes, frequent falls, vasomotor symptoms, physical function score, or lumbar spine BMD) did not yield meaningful improvements in NRI or discrimination of FRAX for MOFs. Future studies should assess whether tools other than FRAX provide superior discrimination for prediction of MOFs. © 2019 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Pain at Multiple Sites Is Associated With Prevalent and Incident Fractures in Older Adults

Musculoskeletal pain is common and typically occurs at multiple sites. Pain has been shown to be associated with falls risk; however, whether an increased risk for falls associated with multisite pain (MSP) translates into an increased risk of fractures has not been investigated. This study aimed to examine the association of number of painful sites with prevalent and incident fractures. Data from a longitudinal population-based study of older adults (mean age 63 years) were utilized. Follow-up was performed at 2.6, 5.1, and 10.7 years later, respectively. Presence/absence of pain at the neck, back, hands, shoulders, hips, knees, and feet was assessed by questionnaire at baseline. Participants were classified into three groups according to the total number of painful sites: zero to two, three to four, and five to seven. Fractures were self-reported at each time point. BMD was measured by DXA. Falls risk was calculated based on the Short-Form Physiological Profile Assessment. Log-binomial regression was used for the analyses. There were 450 fractures at baseline and 154 new fractures reported during a mean follow-up period of 10.7 years (range 9.2 to 12.5 years). In multivariable analyses, number of painful sites was associated with prevalent fractures at any and nonvertebral site. Furthermore, participants with five to seven painful sites had an increased risk of incident fractures at any site (RR 1.69; 95% CI, 1.13 to 2.53); major site, including the femur, radius, ulnar, vertebral, rib, and humerus (RR 2.17; 95% CI 1.12 to 4.22); and vertebral site (RR 6.44, 95% CI, 1.64 to 25.33) compared with those with pain at zero to two sites. These associations remained statistically significant after further adjustment for falls risk and BMD. Pain at multiple sites was associated with incident fracture risk in a dose-response manner, suggesting that widespread pain is an independent contributor to fracture risk. The potential for pain management in fracture prevention warrants further exploration. © 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Reduced Bone Loss Is Associated With Reduced Mortality Risk in Subjects Exposed to Nitrogen Bisphosphonates: A Mediation Analysis

Bisphosphonates, potent antiresorptive agents, have been found to be associated with mortality reduction. Accelerated bone loss is, in itself, an independent predictor of mortality risk, but the relationship between bisphosphonates, bone loss, and mortality is unknown. This study aimed to determine whether the association between bisphosphonates and mortality is mediated by a reduction in the rate of bone loss. Participants from the population-based Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study were followed prospectively between1996 and 2011. Comorbidities and lifestyle factors were collected at baseline and bone mineral density (BMD) at baseline and at years 3 (for those aged 40 to 60 years), 5, and 10. Rate of bone loss was calculated using linear regression. Information on medication use was obtained yearly. Bisphosphonate users grouped into nitrogen bisphosphonates (nBP; alendronate or risedronate) and etidronate and non-users (NoRx) were matched by propensity score, including all baseline factors as well as time of treatment. Cox's proportional hazards models, unadjusted and adjusted for annual rate of bone loss, were used to determine the association between nBP and etidronate versus NoRx. For the treatment groups with significant mortality risk reduction, the percent of mortality reduction mediated by a reduction in the rate of bone loss was estimated using a causal mediation analysis. There were 271 pairs of nBP and matched NoRx and 327 pairs of etidronate and matched NoRx. nBP but not etidronate use was associated with significant mortality risk reduction (hazard ratios [HR] = 0.61 [95% confidence interval 0.39-0.96] and 1.35 [95% CI 0.86-2.11] for nBP and etidronate, respectively). Rapid bone loss was associated with more than 2-fold increased mortality risk compared with no loss. Mediation analysis indicated that 39% (95% CI 7%-84%) of the nBP association with mortality was related to a reduction in the rate of bone loss. This finding provides an insight into the mechanism of the relationship between nBP and survival benefit in osteoporotic patients. © 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Glycemic Control and Insulin Treatment Alter Fracture Risk in Older Men With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Diabetes mellitus among older men has been associated with increased bone mineral density but paradoxically increased fracture risk. Given the interactions among medication treatment, glycemic control, and diabetes-associated comorbidities, the relative effects of each factor remains unclear. This retrospective study includes 652,901 male veterans aged ≥65 years with diabetes and baseline hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) value. All subjects received primary care in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) from 2000 to 2010. Administrative data included ICD9 diagnoses and pharmacy records and was linked to Medicare fee-for-service data. Hazard ratios (HR) for any clinical fracture and hip fracture were calculated using competing risk hazards models, adjusted for fracture risk factors including age, race/ethnicity, body mass index (BMI), alcohol and tobacco use, rheumatoid arthritis, corticosteroid use, as well as diabetes-related comorbidities including cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and peripheral neuropathy. HbA1c <6.5% was associated with a higher risk of any clinical fracture (HR = 1.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.11) compared with the reference HbA1c of 7.5% to 8.5%. Fracture risk was not increased among those with A1c ≥8.5%, nor among those with A1c 6.5% to 7.5%. Use of insulin was independently associated with greater risk of fracture (HR = 1.10, 95% CI 1.07-1.12). There was a significant interaction between insulin use and HbA1c level, (p < 0.001), such that those using insulin with HbA1c <6.5% had HR = 1.23 and those with HbA1c 6.5% to 7.5% had HR = 1.15. Metformin use was associated with decreased fracture risk (HR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.87-0.90). We conclude that among older men with diabetes, those with HbA1c lower than 6.5% are at increased risk for any clinical and hip fracture. Insulin use is associated with higher fracture risk, especially among those with tight glycemic control. Our findings demonstrate the importance of the treatment regimen and avoiding hypoglycemia for fracture prevention in older men with diabetes. © 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Association Between Abdominal Aortic Calcification, Bone Mineral Density, and Fracture in Older Women

Although a relationship between vascular disease and osteoporosis has been recognized, its clinical importance for fracture risk evaluation remains uncertain. Abdominal aortic calcification (AAC), a recognized measure of vascular disease detected on single-energy images performed for vertebral fracture assessment, may also identify increased osteoporosis risk. In a prospective 10-year study of 1024 older predominantly white women (mean age 75.0 ± 2.6 years) from the Perth Longitudinal Study of Aging cohort, we evaluated the association between AAC, skeletal structure, and fractures. AAC and spine fracture were assessed at the time of hip densitometry and heel quantitative ultrasound. AAC was scored 0 to 24 (AAC24) and categorized into low AAC (score 0 and 1, n = 459), moderate AAC (score 2 to 5, n = 373), and severe AAC (score >6, n = 192). Prevalent vertebral fractures were calculated using the Genant semiquantitative method. AAC24 scores were inversely related to hip BMD ( r _s = -0.077, p = 0.013), heel broadband ultrasound attenuation ( r _s = -0.074, p = 0.020), and the Stiffness Index ( r _s = -0.073, p = 0.022). In cross-sectional analyses, women with moderate to severe AAC were more likely to have prevalent fracture and lumbar spine imaging-detected lumbar spine fractures, but not thoracic spine fractures (Mantel-Haenszel test of trend p < 0.05). For 10-year incident clinical fractures and fracture-related hospitalizations, women with moderate to severe AAC (AAC24 score >1) had increased fracture risk (HR 1.48; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.91; p = 0.002; HR 1.46; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.99; p = 0.019, respectively) compared with women with low AAC. This relationship remained significant after adjusting for age and hip BMD for clinical fractures (HR 1.40; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.81; p = 0.010), but was attenuated for fracture-related hospitalizations (HR 1.33; 95% CI, 0.98 to 1.83; p = 0.073). In conclusion, older women with more marked AAC are at higher risk of fracture, not completely captured by bone structural predictors. These findings further support the concept that vascular calcification and bone pathology may share similar mechanisms of causation that remain to be fully elucidated © 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

The Design and Validation of a New Algorithm to Identify Incident Fractures in Administrative Claims Data

Our study validated a claims-based algorithm for the identification of incident and recurrent fractures in administrative data. We used Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) claims from 2005 to 2014 linked to the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) database. Case qualifying (CQ) fractures were identified among participants with ≥12 months of fee-for-service coverage before first fracture claim and ≥6 months after. Recurrent fractures were defined as the first CQ fracture that occurred following a clean period of at least 90 days from the last claim associated with the preceding incident fracture. We used medical records (discharge summary, imaging, and surgical report) to adjudicate fractures. We calculated positive predictive values (PPVs) for incident and recurrent fractures. Our study was not designed to assess the algorithm sensitivity or negative predictive value. We identified 2049 potential incident fractures from claims among 1650 participants. Record retrieval was attempted for 728 (35.5%) suspected incident fractures (prioritizing more recent CQ fractures associated with osteoporosis, but without explicitly requiring any osteoporosis ICD-9 diagnosis code). Our final sample included 520 claims-identified fractures with medical records, of which 502 (96.5%) were confirmed. The PPVs (95% CI) of the hip, wrist, humerus, and clinical vertebra-all exceeded 95%. We identified 117 beneficiaries with 292 ≥2 CQ fracture episodes at the same site, and attempted retrieval on 105 (36.0%) episodes. Our analytic sample included 72 (68.5%) CQ episodes from 33 participants. The PPVs for identifying recurrent clinical vertebral, hip/femur, and nonvertebral fractures with a 90-day clean period exceeded 95%. Although we could not ascertain sensitivity, our updated fracture identification algorithms had high PPV for the identification of incident and recurrent fractures of the same site. Although medical record review and clinical adjudication remain a gold standard, our claims-based algorithm provides an alternative approach to fracture ascertainment when high PPV is desired. © 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Performance of FRAX and FRAX-Based Treatment Thresholds in Women Aged 40 Years and Older: The Manitoba BMD Registry

We examined among women aged ≥40 years the performance of the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) and FRAX-based osteoporosis treatment thresholds under the US National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF) and UK National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG) guidelines. We used registry data for all women aged ≥40 years in Manitoba, Canada, with baseline bone mineral density (BMD) testing (n = 54,459). Incident major osteoporotic fracture (MOF), hip fracture, and clinical fracture were assessed from population-based health services data (mean follow-up 10.5 years). Age-stratified hazard ratios (HR) were estimated from Cox regression models. We assessed the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), number needed to screen (NNS), and number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent a fracture (assuming 20% relative risk reduction on treatment) for osteoporosis treatment thresholds under the NOF and NOGG guidelines. Femoral neck T-score and FRAX (with and without BMD) predicted all fracture outcomes at all ages. There was good calibration in FRAX-predicted versus observed 10-year MOF and hip fracture probability. Overall sensitivity (PPV) for incident MOF was 25.7% (24.0%) for femoral neck T-score ≤ -2.5; 20.3% (26.3%) for FRAX (with BMD)-predicted 10-year MOF risk ≥20% (NOF threshold); 27.3% (22.0%) for FRAX-predicted 10-year MOF risk ≥ age-dependent cut-off (NOGG threshold), 59.4% (19.0%) for the NOF treatment algorithm; and 28.5% (18.4%) for the NOGG treatment algorithm. Sensitivity for identifying incident MOF varied by age, ranging from 0.0% to 26.3% in women 40 to 49 years old and from 49.0% to 93.3% in women aged 80+ years. The gradient of risk for fracture prediction from femoral neck T-score and FRAX (with and without BMD) as continuous measures was strong across the age spectrum. The sensitivity and PPV of the strategies based on dichotomous cut-offs are low, especially among women aged 40 to 49 years (who have lowest incidence rates). Threshold-based approaches should be reassessed, particularly in younger women. © 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.