Population-based study of mortality and major amputation following lower limb revascularization

Background

The aim of this study was to estimate separate risks of major lower limb amputation and death following revascularization for peripheral artery disease (PAD) using competing risks analysis.

Methods

Routinely collected data from Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) were used to identify patients who underwent endovascular or open lower limb revascularization for PAD in England from 2005 to 2015. The primary outcomes were major lower limb amputation and death within 5 years of revascularization. Cox proportional hazards and Fine–Gray competing risks regression were used to examine the competing risks of these outcomes.

Results

Some 164 845 patients underwent their first lower limb revascularization for PAD during the study interval. Most were men (64·6 per cent) and the median age was 71 (i.q.r. 62–78) years. Following endovascular revascularization, the 5-year cumulative incidence of amputation was 4·2 per cent in patients with intermittent claudication and 18·0 per cent in those with a record of tissue loss. The corresponding rates were 10·8 and 25·3 per cent respectively after open revascularization, and 8·1 and 25·0 per cent after combined procedures. The 5-year cumulative incidence of death varied from 24·5 to 39·8 per cent, depending on procedure type. Competing risks methods consistently produced lower estimates than standard methods.

Conclusion

The 5-year risk of major amputation following lower limb revascularization for PAD appears lower than estimated previously. Patients undergoing revascularization for tissue loss and those who require an open procedure are at highest risk of limb loss.

Sociodemographic differences in symptom severity and duration among women referred to secondary care for menorrhagia in England and Wales: a cohort study from the National Heavy Menstrual Bleeding Audit

OBJECTIVE

To examine symptom severity and duration at time of referral to secondary care for heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB) by socioeconomic deprivation, age and ethnicity DESIGN: Cohort analysis of data from the National HMB Audit linked to Hospital Episode Statistics data.

SETTING

English and Welsh National Health Services (secondary care): February 2011 to January 2012.

PARTICIPANTS

15 325 women aged 18-60 years in England and Wales who had a new referral for HMB to a gynaecology outpatient department METHODS: Multivariable linear regression to calculate adjusted differences in mean symptom severity and quality of life scores at first outpatient visit. Multivariable logistic regression to calculate adjusted ORs. Adjustment for body mass index, parity and comorbidities.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Mean symptom severity score (0=best, 100=worst), mean condition-specific quality of life score (0=worst, 100=best) and symptom duration (≥1 year).

RESULTS

Women were on average 42 years old and 12% reported minority ethnic backgrounds. Mean symptom severity and condition-specific quality of life scores were 61.8 and 34.7. Almost three-quarters of women (74%) reported having had symptoms for ≥1 year. Women from more deprived areas had more severe symptoms at their first outpatient visit (difference -6.1; 95% CI-7.2 to -4.9, between least and most deprived quintiles) and worse condition-specific quality of life (difference 6.3; 95% CI 5.1 to 7.5). Symptom severity declined with age while quality of life improved.

CONCLUSIONS

Women living in more deprived areas reported more severe HMB symptoms and poorer quality of life at the start of treatment in secondary care. Providers should examine referral practices to explore if these differences reflect women's health-seeking behaviour or how providers decide whether or not to refer.

Perinatal mortality associated with induction of labour versus expectant management in nulliparous women aged 35 years or over: An English national cohort study

BACKGROUND

A recent randomised controlled trial (RCT) demonstrated that induction of labour at 39 weeks of gestational age has no short-term adverse effect on the mother or infant among nulliparous women aged ≥35 years. However, the trial was underpowered to address the effect of routine induction of labour on the risk of perinatal death. We aimed to determine the association between induction of labour at ≥39 weeks and the risk of perinatal mortality among nulliparous women aged ≥35 years.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used English Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data collected between April 2009 and March 2014 to compare perinatal mortality between induction of labour at 39, 40, and 41 weeks of gestation and expectant management (continuation of pregnancy to either spontaneous labour, induction of labour, or caesarean section at a later gestation). Analysis was by multivariable Poisson regression with adjustment for maternal characteristics and pregnancy-related conditions. Among the cohort of 77,327 nulliparous women aged 35 to 50 years delivering a singleton infant, 33.1% had labour induced: these women tended to be older and more likely to have medical complications of pregnancy, and the infants were more likely to be small for gestational age. Induction of labour at 40 weeks (compared with expectant management) was associated with a lower risk of in-hospital perinatal death (0.08% versus 0.26%; adjusted risk ratio [adjRR] 0.33; 95% CI 0.13-0.80, P = 0.015) and meconium aspiration syndrome (0.44% versus 0.86%; adjRR 0.52; 95% CI 0.35-0.78, P = 0.002). Induction at 40 weeks was also associated with a slightly increased risk of instrumental vaginal delivery (adjRR 1.06; 95% CI 1.01-1.11, P = 0.020) and emergency caesarean section (adjRR 1.05; 95% CI 1.01-1.09, P = 0.019). The number needed to treat (NNT) analysis indicated that 562 (95% CI 366-1,210) inductions of labour at 40 weeks would be required to prevent 1 perinatal death. Limitations of the study include the reliance on observational data in which gestational age is recorded in weeks rather than days. There is also the potential for unmeasured confounders and under-recording of induction of labour or perinatal death in the dataset.

CONCLUSIONS

Bringing forward the routine offer of induction of labour from the current recommendation of 41-42 weeks to 40 weeks of gestation in nulliparous women aged ≥35 years may reduce overall rates of perinatal death.

Comparison of control charts for monitoring clinical performance using binary data

Background

Time series charts are increasingly used by clinical teams to monitor their performance, but statistical control charts are not widely used, partly due to uncertainty about which chart to use. Although there is a large literature on methods, there are few systematic comparisons of charts for detecting changes in rates of binary clinical performance data.

Methods

We compared four control charts for binary data: the Shewhart p-chart; the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart; the cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart; and the g-chart. Charts were set up to have the same long-term false signal rate. Chart performance was then judged according to the expected number of patients treated until a change in rate was detected.

Results

For large absolute increases in rates (>10%), the Shewhart p-chart and EWMA both had good performance, although not quite as good as the CUSUM. For small absolute increases (<10%), the CUSUM detected changes more rapidly. The g-chart is designed to efficiently detect decreases in low event rates, but it again had less good performance than the CUSUM.

Implications

The Shewhart p-chart is the simplest chart to implement and interpret, and performs well for detecting large changes, which may be useful for monitoring processes of care. The g-chart is a useful complement for determining the success of initiatives to reduce low-event rates (eg, adverse events). The CUSUM may be particularly useful for faster detection of problems with patient safety leading to increases in adverse event rates.  

Predicting 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery: Evaluation of the National Hip Fracture Database case-mix adjustment model

OBJECTIVES

The National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD) publishes hospital-level risk-adjusted mortality rates following hip fracture surgery in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The performance of the risk model used by the NHFD was compared with the widely-used Nottingham Hip Fracture Score.

METHODS

Data from 94 hospitals on patients aged 60 to 110 who had hip fracture surgery between May 2013 and July 2013 were analysed. Data were linked to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) death register to calculate the 30-day mortality rate. Risk of death was predicted for each patient using the NHFD and Nottingham models in a development dataset using logistic regression to define the models' coefficients. This was followed by testing the performance of these refined models in a second validation dataset.

RESULTS

The 30-day mortality rate was 5.36% in the validation dataset (n = 3861), slightly lower than the 6.40% in the development dataset (n = 4044). The NHFD and Nottingham models showed a slightly lower discrimination in the validation dataset compared with the development dataset, but both still displayed moderate discriminative power (c-statistic for NHFD = 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.74; Nottingham model = 0.70, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.75). Both models defined similar ranges of predicted mortality risk (1% to 18%) in assessment of calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

Both models have limitations in predicting mortality for individual patients after hip fracture surgery, but the NHFD risk adjustment model performed as well as the widely-used Nottingham prognostic tool and is therefore a reasonable alternative for risk adjustment in the United Kingdom hip fracture population.Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2017;6:550-556.

Coding of Barrett's oesophagus with high-grade dysplasia in national administrative databases: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) system used in the English hospital administrative database (Hospital Episode Statistics (HES)) does not contain a specific code for oesophageal high-grade dysplasia (HGD). The aim of this paper was to examine how patients with HGD were coded in HES and whether it was done consistently.

SETTING

National population-based cohort study of patients with newly diagnosed with HGD in England. The study used data collected prospectively as part of the National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit (NOGCA). These records were linked to HES to investigate the pattern of ICD-10 codes recorded for these patients at the time of diagnosis.

PARTICIPANTS

All patients with a new diagnosis of HGD between 1 April 2013 and 31 March 2014 in England, who had data submitted to the NOGCA.

OUTCOMES MEASURED

The main outcome assessed was the pattern of primary and secondary ICD-10 diagnostic codes recorded in the HES records at endoscopy at the time of diagnosis of HGD.

RESULTS

Among 452 patients with a new diagnosis of HGD between 1 April 2013 and 31 March 2014, Barrett's oesophagus was the only condition coded in 200 (44.2%) HES records. Records for 59 patients (13.1%) contained no oesophageal conditions. The remaining 193 patients had various diagnostic codes recorded, 93 included a diagnosis of Barrett's oesophagus and 57 included a diagnosis of oesophageal/gastric cardia cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

HES is not suitable to support national studies looking at the management of HGD. This is one reason for the UK to adopt an extended ICD system (akin to ICD-10-CM).

Fifteen-minute consultation: the complexities of empirical antibiotic selection for serious bacterial infections-a practical approach

Potentially life-threatening infections require immediate antibiotic therapy. Most early stage antibiotic treatment for these infections is empirical, that is, covering a range of possible target bacteria while awaiting culture results. Empirical antibiotic regimens need to reflect the epidemiology of most likely causative bacteria, type of infection and patient risk factors. Summary data from relevant isolates in similar patients help to identify appropriate empirical regimens. At present, such data are mostly presented as hospital or other aggregate antibiograms, showing antimicrobial susceptibility testing results by bacterial species. However, a more suitable method is to calculate weighted incidence syndromic combination antibiograms for different types of infections and regimens, allowing head-to-head comparisons of empirical regimens. Once there is confirmatory or negative microbiological evidence of infection, empirical regimens should be adapted to the identified bacterial species and susceptibilities or discontinued.

Surveillance of Gram-negative bacteria: impact of variation in current European laboratory reporting practice on apparent multidrug resistance prevalence in paediatric bloodstream isolates

This study evaluates whether estimated multidrug resistance (MDR) levels are dependent on the design of the surveillance system when using routine microbiological data. We used antimicrobial resistance data from the Antibiotic Resistance and Prescribing in European Children (ARPEC) project. The MDR status of bloodstream isolates of Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Pseudomonas aeruginosa was defined using European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)-endorsed standardised algorithms (non-susceptible to at least one agent in three or more antibiotic classes). Assessment of MDR status was based on specified combinations of antibiotic classes reportable as part of routine surveillance activities. The agreement between MDR status and resistance to specific pathogen-antibiotic class combinations (PACCs) was assessed. Based on all available antibiotic susceptibility testing, the proportion of MDR isolates was 31% for E. coli, 30% for K. pneumoniae and 28% for P. aeruginosa isolates. These proportions fell to 9, 14 and 25%, respectively, when based only on classes collected by current ECDC surveillance methods. Resistance percentages for specific PACCs were lower compared with MDR percentages, except for P. aeruginosa. Accordingly, MDR detection based on these had low sensitivity for E. coli (2-41%) and K. pneumoniae (21-85%). Estimates of MDR percentages for Gram-negative bacteria are strongly influenced by the antibiotic classes reported. When a complete set of results requested by the algorithm is not available, inclusion of classes frequently tested as part of routine clinical care greatly improves the detection of MDR. Resistance to individual PACCs should not be considered reflective of MDR percentages in Enterobacteriaceae.

Increased orthogeriatrician involvement in hip fracture care and its impact on mortality in England

Objectives

to describe the increase in orthogeriatrician involvement in hip fracture care in England and its association with improvements in time to surgery and mortality.

Study design

analysis of Hospital Episode Statistics for 196,401 patients presenting with hip fracture to 150 hospitals in England between 1 April 2010 and 28 February 2014, combined with data on orthogeriatrician hours from a national organisational survey.

Methods

we examined changes in the average number of hours worked by orthogeriatricians in orthopaedic departments per patient with hip fracture, and their potential effect on mortality within 30 days of presentation. The role of prompt surgery (on day of or day after presentation) was explored as a potential confounding factor. Associations were assessed using conditional Poisson regression models with adjustment for patients' sex, age and comorbidity and year, with hospitals treated as fixed effects.

Results

between 2010 and 2013, there was an increase of 2.5 hours per patient in the median number of hours worked by orthogeriatricians-from 1.5 to 4.0 hours. An increase of 2.5 hours per patient was associated with a relative reduction in mortality of 3.4% (95% confidence interval 0.9% to 5.9%, P = 0.01). This corresponds to an absolute reduction of approximately 0.3%. Higher numbers of orthogeriatrician hours were associated with higher rates of prompt surgery, but were independently associated with lower mortality.

Conclusion

in the context of initiatives to improve hip fracture care, we identified statistically significant and robust associations between increased orthogeriatrician hours per patient and reduced 30-day mortality.

Association between age and access to immediate breast reconstruction in women undergoing mastectomy for breast cancer

BACKGROUND

National guidelines state that patients with breast cancer undergoing mastectomy in England should be offered immediate breast reconstruction (IR), unless precluded by their fitness for surgery or the need for adjuvant therapies.

METHODS

A national study investigated factors that influenced clinicians' decision to offer IR, and collected data on case mix, operative procedures and reconstructive decision-making among women with breast cancer having a mastectomy with or without IR in the English National Health Service between 1 January 2008 and 31 March 2009. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between whether or not women were offered IR and their characteristics (tumour burden, functional status, planned radiotherapy, planned chemotherapy, perioperative fitness, obesity, smoking status and age).

RESULTS

Of 13 225 women, 6458 (48·8 per cent) were offered IR. Among factors the guidelines highlighted as relevant to decision-making, the three most strongly associated with the likelihood of an offer were tumour burden, planned radiotherapy and performance status. Depending on the combination of their values, the probability of an IR offer ranged from 7·4 to 85·1 per cent. A regression model that included all available factors discriminated well between whether or not women were offered IR (c-statistic 0·773), but revealed that increasing age was associated with a fall in the probability of an IR offer beyond that expected from older patients' tumour and co-morbidity characteristics.

CONCLUSION

Clinicians are broadly following guidance on the offer of IR, except with respect to patients' age.

National trends in immediate and delayed post-mastectomy reconstruction procedures in England: A seven-year population-based cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Little is known about post-mastectomy reconstruction procedural trends in women diagnosed with breast cancer in England. Our aim was to examine patterns of immediate and delayed reconstruction procedures over time and within regions.

METHODS

Women with breast cancer who underwent unilateral index immediate or delayed post-mastectomy reconstruction between 2007 and 2014 were identified using the National Hospital Episode Statistics database. Women were grouped into categories based on the type of reconstruction procedure. Adjusted rates of implant and free flap reconstructions were then calculated across regional Cancer Networks using a regression model to adjust for age, disease, comorbidities, ethnicity, and deprivation.

RESULTS

Between 2007 and 2014, 21 862 women underwent immediate reconstruction and 8653 delayed reconstruction. Immediate implant reconstruction increased from 30% to 54%, and immediate free flap reconstruction from 17% to 21%. Adjusted immediate implant and free flap proportions ranged from 17 to 68% and 9-63%, respectively, across regions. Free flaps became more common in the delayed setting, rising from 25% to 42%. However, adjusted rates ranged from 23% to 74% across regions. Networks with high/low rates of free flaps for immediate tended to have high/low rates for delayed reconstruction.

CONCLUSION

There has been a substantial increase in the use of immediate implant reconstruction in England. In comparison, there has been an increasing use of autologous free flap reconstruction for delayed procedures. Significant regional variation exists in the type of reconstruction performed, and these patterns need to be examined to determine if variation is related to service provision and/or capacity barriers.

National trends and regional variation in immediate breast reconstruction rates

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have identified variation in immediate reconstruction (IR) rates following mastectomy for breast cancer across English regions during a period of service reorganization, a national audit and changing guidelines. This study analysed current variations in regional rates of IR in England.

METHODS

Patient-level data from Hospital Episode Statistics were used to define a cohort of women who underwent primary mastectomy for invasive or in situ breast carcinoma in English National Health Service (NHS) hospitals between April 2000 and March 2014. A time series of IR rates was calculated nationally and within regions in 28 cancer networks. Regional IR rates before and after the national audit were compared, using logistic regression to adjust for patient demographics, tumour type, co-morbidity and year of mastectomy.

RESULTS

Between 2000 and 2014, a total of 167 343 women had a mastectomy. The national IR rate was stable at around 10 per cent until 2005; it then increased to 23·3 per cent by 2013-2014. Preaudit (before January 2008), adjusted cancer network-level IR rates ranged from 4·3 to 22·6 per cent. Postaudit (after April 2009) adjusted IR rates ranged from 13·1 to 36·7 per cent, with 20 networks having IR rates between 15 and 24 per cent. The degree of change was not greatest amongst those that started with the lowest IR rates, with four networks with the largest absolute increase also starting with relatively high IR rates.

CONCLUSION

The national IR rate increased throughout the study period. Substantial regional variation remains, although considerable time has elapsed since a period of service reorganization, guideline revision and a national audit.

The Proportion of Women Who Have a Breast 4 Years after Breast Cancer Surgery: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

There are numerous pathways in breast cancer treatment, many of which enable women to retain a breast after treatment. We evaluated the proportion of women who have a breast, either through conserving surgery (BCS) or reconstruction, at 4-years after diagnosis, and how this varied by patient group.

Methods and Findings

We identified women with breast cancer who underwent initial BCS or mastectomy in English National Health Service (NHS) hospitals between January 2008 and December 2009 using the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database. Women were assigned into one of four patient groups depending on their age at diagnosis and presence of comorbidities. The series of breast cancer procedure (BCS, mastectomy, immediate, or delayed reconstruction) undergone by each women was identified over four years, and the proportion of women with a breast calculated. Variation was examined across patient groups, and English Cancer Networks. Between 2008 and 2009, 60,959 women underwent BCS or mastectomy. The proportion with a breast at 4 years was 79.3%, and 64.0%, in women less than 70 years without, and with comorbidities. Whilst in women aged 70 and over without, and with comorbidities, proportions were 52.6%, and 38.2%, respectively. Comorbidities were associated with lower proportions of BCS, but had little effect on reconstruction rates unlike age. Networks variation of 15% or more was found within each patient group, and Cancer Networks tended to have either a high or low proportion across all four patient groups. However, while 14% of women under 70 years had undergone reconstruction, less than 2% of women aged 70 or more had this treatment option.

Conclusion

The proportion of women diagnosed with breast cancer who retain a breast at 4 years is strongly associated with age, and presence of comorbidities. There was significant variation between Cancer Networks indicating that women’s experience in England was dependent on their geographical location of treatment.

Management of Barrett's high-grade dysplasia: initial results from a population-based national audit

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Previous studies reported significant variation in the management of patients with Barrett's esophagus. However, these are based on self-reported clinical practice. The aim of this study was to examine the management of high-grade dysplasia in Barrett's esophagus in England by using patient-level data and to compare practice with guidelines.

METHODS

From April 2012 to March 2013, National Health Service (NHS) trusts in England prospectively collected data on patients newly diagnosed with high-grade dysplasia (HGD) of the esophagus as part of the National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit. Data were collected on patient characteristics, diagnosis and endoscopic findings, treatment planning, and therapy.

RESULTS

Between April 2012 and March 2013, NHS trusts reported 465 cases of HGD. Diagnosis was confirmed by a second pathologist in 79.4% of cases (270/340), and 86.0% (374/465) had their treatment planned at a multidisciplinary team meeting. A total of 290 patients (62.4%) were managed endoscopically (frequently with endoscopic resection or radiofrequency ablation), whereas 26 patients (5.6%) had esophagectomy. The proportion of patients managed by surveillance varied by age (P < .001), ranging from 19.5% in patients aged <65 years to 63.8% in patients aged ≥85 years. More patients received active treatment if their cases were discussed at a multidisciplinary meeting (73.5% vs 44.3%; P < .001) or managed at higher-volume trusts (87.8% vs 55.4%; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

There was marked variation in the management of HGD across England, with a third of patients receiving no active treatment. Patients discussed at a specialist multidisciplinary meeting or managed in high-volume trusts were more likely to receive active treatment.

Birth "Out-of-Hours": An Evaluation of Obstetric Practice and Outcome According to the Presence of Senior Obstetricians on the Labour Ward

BACKGROUND

Concerns have been raised that a lack of senior obstetricians ("consultants") on the labour ward outside normal hours may lead to worse outcomes among babies born during periods of reduced cover.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We carried out a multicentre cohort study using data from 19 obstetric units in the United Kingdom between 1 April 2012 and 31 March 2013 to examine whether rates of obstetric intervention and outcome change "out-of-hours," i.e., when consultants are not providing dedicated, on-site labour ward cover. At the 19 hospitals, obstetric rotas ranged from 51 to 106 h of on-site labour ward cover per week. There were 87,501 singleton live births during the year, and 55.8% occurred out-of-hours. Women who delivered out-of-hours had slightly lower rates of intrapartum caesarean section (CS) (12.7% versus 13.4%, adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.94; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.90 to 0.98) and instrumental delivery (15.6% versus 17.0%, adj. OR 0.92; 95% CI 0.89 to 0.96) than women who delivered at times of on-site labour ward cover. There was some evidence that the severe perineal tear rate was reduced in out-of-hours vaginal deliveries (3.3% versus 3.6%, adj. OR 0.92; 95% CI 0.85 to 1.00). There was no evidence of a statistically significant difference between out-of-hours and "in-hours" deliveries in the rate of babies with a low Apgar score at 5 min (1.33% versus 1.25%, adjusted OR 1.07; 95% CI 0.95 to 1.21) or low cord pH (0.94% versus 0.82%; adjusted OR 1.12; 95% CI 0.96 to 1.31). Key study limitations include the potential for bias by indication, the reliance upon an organisational measure of consultant presence, and a non-random sample of maternity units.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no difference in the rate of maternal and neonatal morbidity according to the presence of consultants on the labour ward, with the possible exception of a reduced rate of severe perineal tears in out-of-hours vaginal deliveries. Fewer women had operative deliveries out-of-hours. Taken together, the available evidence provides some reassurance that the current organisation of maternity care in the UK allows for good planning and risk management. However there is a need for more robust evidence on the quality of care afforded by different models of labour ward staffing.

Population-based cohort study of the management and survival of patients with early-stage oesophageal adenocarcinoma in England

BACKGROUND

Until recently, oesophagectomy was the treatment of choice for early oesophageal cancer. Endoscopic treatment has been introduced relatively recently. This observational national database study aimed to describe how endoscopic therapy has been introduced in England and to examine the safety of this approach.

METHODS

A population-based cohort study was undertaken of patients diagnosed with oesophageal adenocarcinoma between October 2007 and June 2009 using three linked national databases. Patients with early-stage disease (T1 tumours with no evidence of spread) were identified, along with the primary treatment modality where treatment intent was curative. Short-term outcomes after treatment and 5-year survival were evaluated.

RESULTS

Of 5192 patients diagnosed with oesophageal adenocarcinoma, 306 (5·9 per cent) were considered to have early-stage disease before any treatment, of whom 239 (79·9 per cent of 299 patients with data on treatment intent) were managed with curative intent. Of 175 patients who had an oesophagectomy, 114 (65·1 (95 per cent c.i. 57·6 to 72·7) per cent) survived for 5 years. Among these, 47 (30·3 per cent of 155 patients with tissue results available) had their disease upstaged after pathological staging; this occurred more often in patients who did not have staging endoscopic ultrasonography before surgery. Of 41 patients who had an endoscopic resection, 27 (66 (95 per cent c.i. 49 to 80) per cent) survived for 5 years. Repeat endoscopic therapy was required by 23 (56 per cent) of these 41 patients.

CONCLUSION

Between 2007 and 2009, oesophagectomy remained the initial treatment of choice (73·2 per cent) among patients with early-stage oesophageal cancer treated with curative intent; one in five patients were managed endoscopically, and this treatment was more common in elderly patients. Although the groups had different patient characteristics, 5-year survival rates were similar.

Selecting appropriate empirical antibiotic regimens for paediatric bloodstream infections: application of a Bayesian decision model to local and pooled antimicrobial resistance surveillance data

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of weighted-incidence syndromic combination antibiograms (WISCAs) to inform the selection of empirical antibiotic regimens for suspected paediatric bloodstream infections (BSIs) by comparing WISCAs derived using data from single hospitals and from a multicentre surveillance dataset.

METHODS

WISCAs were developed by estimating the coverage of five empirical antibiotic regimens for childhood BSI using a Bayesian decision tree. The study used microbiological data on ∼2000 bloodstream isolates collected over 2 years from 19 European hospitals. We evaluated the ability of a WISCA to show differences in regimen coverage at two exemplar hospitals. For each, a WISCA was first calculated using only their local data; a second WISCA was calculated using pooled data from all 19 hospitals.

RESULTS

The estimated coverage of the five regimens was 72%-86% for Hospital 1 and 79%-94% for Hospital 2, based on their own data. In both cases, the best regimens could not be definitively identified because the differences in coverage were not statistically significant. For Hospital 1, coverage estimates derived using pooled data gave sufficient precision to reveal clinically important differences among regimens, including high coverage provided by a narrow-spectrum antibiotic combination. For Hospital 2, the hospital and pooled data showed signs of heterogeneity and the use of pooled data was judged not to be appropriate.

CONCLUSIONS

The Bayesian WISCA provides a useful approach to pooling information from different sources to guide empirical therapy and could increase confidence in the selection of narrow-spectrum regimens.

Risk adjustment models for short-term outcomes after surgical resection for oesophagogastric cancer

BACKGROUND

Outcomes for oesophagogastric cancer surgery are compared with the aim of benchmarking quality of care. Adjusting for patient characteristics is crucial to avoid biased comparisons between providers. The study objective was to develop a case-mix adjustment model for comparing 30- and 90-day mortality and anastomotic leakage rates after oesophagogastric cancer resections.

METHODS

The study reviewed existing models, considered expert opinion and examined audit data in order to select predictors that were consequently used to develop a case-mix adjustment model for the National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit, covering England and Wales. Models were developed on patients undergoing surgical resection between April 2011 and March 2013 using logistic regression. Model calibration and discrimination was quantified using a bootstrap procedure.

RESULTS

Most existing risk models for oesophagogastric resections were methodologically weak, outdated or based on detailed laboratory data that are not generally available. In 4882 patients with oesophagogastric cancer used for model development, 30- and 90-day mortality rates were 2·3 and 4·4 per cent respectively, and 6·2 per cent of patients developed an anastomotic leak. The internally validated models, based on predictors selected from the literature, showed moderate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve 0·646 for 30-day mortality, 0·664 for 90-day mortality and 0·587 for anastomotic leakage) and good calibration.

CONCLUSION

Based on available data, three case-mix adjustment models for postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing curative surgery for oesophagogastric cancer were developed. These models should be used for risk adjustment when assessing hospital performance in the National Health Service, and tested in other large health systems.

Socioeconomic deprivation and inpatient complication rates following mastectomy and breast reconstruction surgery

BACKGROUND

Socioeconomic deprivation is known to influence the presentation of patients with breast cancer and their subsequent treatments, but its relationship with surgical outcomes has not been investigated. A national prospective cohort study was undertaken to examine the effect of deprivation on the outcomes of mastectomy with or without immediate breast reconstruction.

METHODS

Data were collected on patient case mix, operative procedures and inpatient complications following mastectomy with or without immediate breast reconstruction in the English National Health Service between 1 January 2008 and 31 March 2009. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between patients' level of (regional) deprivation and the likelihood of local (mastectomy site, flap, flap donor and implant) and distant or systemic complications, after adjusting for potential confounding factors.

RESULTS

Of 13,689 patients who had a mastectomy, 2849 (20.8 per cent) underwent immediate reconstruction. In total, 1819 women (13.3 per cent) experienced inpatient complications. The proportion with complications increased from 11.2 per cent among the least deprived quintile (Q1) to 16.1 per cent in the most deprived (Q5). Complication rates were higher among smokers, the obese and those with poorer performance status, but were not affected by age, tumour type or Nottingham Prognostic Index. Adjustment for patient-related factors only marginally reduced the association between deprivation and complication incidence, to 11.4 per cent in Q1 and 15.4 per cent in Q5. Further adjustment for length of hospital stay, hospital case volume and immediate reconstruction rate had minimal effect.

CONCLUSION

Rates of postoperative complications after mastectomy and breast reconstruction surgery were higher among women from more deprived backgrounds.

Variation in access to community rehabilitation services and length of stay in hospital following a hip fracture: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

To assess variation in access to and use of community rehabilitation services for patients with a hip fracture, and whether this affects length of stay in hospital.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study using administrative patient-level data from Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and organisational survey data.

SETTING

A regional health economy in South West England served by four acute National Health Service (NHS) hospital trusts and six former Primary Care Trusts (PCTs).

POPULATION

1230 hip fracture patients treated in an acute hospital between 1 April 2011 and 29 February 2012.

MAIN OUTCOMES

Information about access to community rehabilitation services for each acute hospital and PCT, reported by organisational survey. Rates of patients transferred from acute hospital to community rehabilitation hospitals (CRH) across eight groups with varying access; determined by acute hospital and PCT. Median lengths of stay in the acute hospital, and in the acute hospital plus CRH combined. Associations between the rate of transfer to a CRH and median lengths of stay assessed using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (rs).

RESULTS

Access to community rehabilitation services varied, including the number of CRH inpatient beds, formal access criteria and waiting times. In one PCT, no home-based rehabilitation service was available. The percentage of patients transferred to a CRH ranged from 2.1% to 54.7%. A higher transfer rate was associated with a shorter median length of stay in the acute hospital (rs=-0.8; p=0.01), but a longer median combined length of stay in the acute hospital and CRH (rs=+0.7; p=0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Within one geographical area, there was wide variation in availability and use of community rehabilitation services for patients discharged from an acute hospital following a hip fracture. Reliance on transfers to community rehabilitation hospitals was associated with a longer length of stay in the NHS.

A population-based, retrospective, cohort study of esophageal cancer missed at endoscopy

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Several studies have suggested that a significant minority of esophageal cancers are missed at endoscopy The aim of this study was to estimate the proportion of esophageal cancers missed at endoscopy on a national level, and to investigate the relationship between miss rates and patient and tumor characteristics.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This retrospective, population-based, cohort study identified patients diagnosed with esophageal cancer between April 2011 and March 2012 in England, using two linked databases (National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit and Hospital Episode Statistics). The main outcome was the rate of previous endoscopy within 3 - 36 months of cancer diagnosis. This was calculated for the overall cohort and by patient characteristics, including tumor site and disease stage.

RESULTS

A total of 6943 new cases of esophageal cancer were identified, of which 7.8 % (95 % confidence interval 7.1 - 8.4) had undergone endoscopy in the 3 - 36 months preceding diagnosis. Of patients with stage 0/1 cancers, 34.0 % had undergone endoscopy in the 3 - 36 months before diagnosis compared with 10.0 % of stage 2 cancers and 4.5 % of stage 3/4 cancers. Of patients with stage 0/1 cancers, 22.1 % were diagnosed after ≥ 3 endoscopies in the previous 3 years. Patients diagnosed with an upper esophageal lesion were more likely to have had an endoscopy in the previous 3 - 12 months (P = 0.040). The most common diagnosis at previous endoscopy was an esophageal ulcer (48.2 % of investigations).

CONCLUSION

Esophageal cancer may be missed at endoscopy in up to 7.8 % of patients who are subsequently diagnosed with cancer. Endoscopists should make a detailed examination of the whole esophageal mucosa to avoid missing subtle early cancers and lesions in the proximal esophagus. Patients with an esophageal cancer may be misdiagnosed as having a benign esophageal ulcer.

Findings of a national comparative audit of mastectomy and breast reconstruction surgery in England

OBJECTIVES

This paper summarises the findings of a national audit of mastectomy and breast reconstruction surgery carried out in England. It describes patterns of treatment, and the clinical and patient-reported quality of life outcomes associated with these types of procedure.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

All 150 National Health Service hospital groups (NHS trusts) in England that provided mastectomy or breast reconstruction surgery, along with six NHS trusts in Wales and Scotland and 114 independent hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

Women aged 16 years and over undergoing mastectomy with or without immediate breast reconstruction, or primary delayed breast reconstruction, between 1st January 2008 and 31st March 2009.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Reconstructive utilisation, post-operative complications and sequelae, and patient-reported satisfaction and quality of life.

RESULTS

Overall, 21% of the 16,485 women who had mastectomy underwent immediate reconstruction. However, the proportion varied between regions from 9% to 43% (p < 0.001). Levels of patient satisfaction with information, choice and the quality of care were high. The proportion of women who experienced local complications was 10.30% (95% CI 9.78-10.84) for mastectomy surgery, ranged from 11.02% (9.31-12.92) to 18.24% (14.80-22.10) for different immediate reconstructive procedures, and from 5.00% (2.76-8.25) to 19.86% (16.21-23.94) for types of delayed reconstruction. Breast appearance and overall well-being scores reported 18 months after surgery were higher among women having immediate breast reconstruction compared to mastectomy only. Postoperative outcomes were similar across providers..

CONCLUSIONS

The Audit found women were highly satisfied with their peri-operative care, with hospital providers achieving similar outcomes. English providers should examine how to reduce the variation in rates of immediate reconstruction.