Population-wide contribution of medically assisted reproductive technologies to overall births in Australia: temporal trends and parental characteristics

STUDY QUESTION

In a country with supportive funding for medically assisted reproduction (MAR) technologies, what is the proportion of MAR births over-time?

SUMMARY ANSWER

In 2017, 6.7% of births were conceived by MAR (4.8% ART and 1.9% ovulation induction (OI)/IUI) with a 55% increase in ART births and a stable contribution from OI/IUI births over the past decade.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

There is considerable global variation in utilization rates of ART despite a similar infertility prevalence worldwide. While the overall contribution of ART to national births is known in many countries because of ART registries, very little is known about the contribution of OI/IUI treatment or the socio-demographic characteristics of the parents. Australia provides supportive public funding for all forms of MAR with no restrictions based on male or female age, and thus provides a unique setting to investigate the contribution of MAR to national births as well as the socio-demographic characteristics of parents across the different types of MAR births.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

This is a novel population-based birth cohort study of 898 084 births using linked ART registry data and administrative data including birth registrations, medical services, pharmaceuticals, hospital admissions and deaths. Birth (a live or still birth of at least one baby of ≥400 g birthweight or ≥20 weeks’ gestation) was the unit of analysis in this study. Multiple births were considered as one birth in our analysis.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

This study included a total of 898 084 births (606 488 mothers) in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory, Australia 2009–2017. We calculated the prevalence of all categories of MAR-conceived births over the study period. Generalized estimating equations were used to examine the association between parental characteristics (parent’s age, parity, socio-economic status, maternal country of birth, remoteness of mother’s dwelling, pre-existing medical conditions, smoking, etc.) and ART and OI/IUI births relative to naturally conceived births.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

The proportion of MAR births increased from 5.1% of all births in 2009 to 6.7% in 2017, representing a 30% increase over the decade. The proportion of OI/IUI births remained stable at around 2% of all births, representing 32% of all MAR births. Over the study period, ART births conceived by frozen embryo-transfer increased nearly 3-fold. OI/IUI births conceived using clomiphene citrate decreased by 39%, while OI/IUI births conceived using letrozole increased 56-fold. Overall, there was a 55% increase over the study period in the number of ART-conceived births, rising to 56% of births to mothers aged 40 years and older. In 2017, almost one in six births (17.6%) to mothers aged 40 years and over were conceived using ART treatment. Conversely, the proportion of OI/IUI births was similar across different mother’s age groups and remained stable over the study period. ART children, but not OI/IUI children, were more likely to have parents who were socio-economically advantaged compared to naturally conceived children. For example, compared to naturally conceived births, ART births were 16% less likely to be born to mothers who live in the disadvantaged neighbourhoods after accounting for other covariates (adjusted relative risk (aRR): 0.84 [95% CI: 0.81–0.88]). ART- or OI/IUI-conceived children were 25% less likely to be born to immigrant mothers than births after natural conception (aRR: 0.75 [0.74–0.77]).

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

The social inequalities that we observed between the parents of children born using ART and naturally conceived children may not directly reflect disparities in accessing fertility care for individuals seeking treatment.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

With the ubiquitous decline in fertility rates around the world and the increasing trend to delay childbearing, this population-based study enhances our understanding of the contribution of different types of MARs to population profiles among births in high-income countries. The parental socio-demographic characteristics of MAR-conceived children differ significantly from naturally conceived children and this highlights the importance of accounting for such differences in studies investigating the health and development of MAR-conceived children.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This study was funded through Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) grant: APP1127437. G.M.C. is an employee of The University of New South Wales (UNSW) and Director of the National Perinatal Epidemiology and Statistics Unit (NPESU), UNSW. The NPESU manages the Australian and New Zealand Assisted Reproduction Database with funding support from the Fertility Society of Australia and New Zealand. C.V. is an employee of The University of New South Wales (UNSW), Director of Clinical Research of IVFAustralia, Member of the Board of the Fertility Society of Australia and New Zealand, and Member of Research Committee of School of Women’s and Children’s Health, UNSW. C.V. reports grants from Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), and Merck KGaA. C.V. reports consulting fees, and payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers, bureaus, manuscript, writing or educational events or attending meeting or travel from Merck, Merck Sparpe & Dohme, Ferring, Gedon-Richter and Besins outside this submitted work. C.V. reported stock or stock options from Virtus Health Limited outside this submitted work. R.J.N. is an employee of The University of Adelaide, and Chair DSMC for natural therapies trial of The University of Hong Kong. R.J.N. reports grants from NHMRC. R.J.N. reports lecture fees and support for attending or travelling for lecture from Merck Serono which is outside this submitted work. L.R.J. is an employee of The UNSW and Foundation Director of the Centre for Big Data Research in Health at UNSW Sydney. L.R.J. reports grants from NHMRC. The other co-authors have no conflict of interest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Abstract WP221: Sex Differences In The Symptom Presentation Of Stroke: A Systematic Review And Meta-analysis

Background: Early diagnosis through symptom recognition is vital in acute stroke management. However, women who experience stroke are more likely than men to receive a missed or delayed diagnosis.

Aims: To assess sex differences in the symptom presentation of stroke and whether these differences are associated with a delayed or missed diagnosis.

Methods: PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library were systematically searched up to January 2021 for all studies that reported on symptoms in both adult women and men with diagnosed stroke (ischaemic or haemorrhagic) and transient ischaemic attack and were published in English. Sex-stratified proportions for each symptom were extracted and pooled. The relative risk (RR) of a symptom being present in women relative to men with 95% confidence intervals (CI) was also calculated and pooled, as well as the RR of a delayed or missed stroke diagnosis.

Results: Pooled results from 21 eligible articles showed that the top three symptoms were similar between women and men - limb weakness (72% vs. 66%), hemiparesis (56% vs. 55%), and weakness of the face, arm or leg (55% vs. 55%). However, the top 4th and 5th symptoms found in women were generalised non-specific weakness (49%) and motor deficit (46%), whereas in men these were motor deficit (46%) and ataxia (44%). In addition, crude RR showed that women were more likely to have higher risk than men of presenting with confusion (RR 1.16, CI 1.01-1.32), dysphagia (RR 1.29, CI 1.13-1.48), dysphasia (RR 1.11, CI 1.00-1.24), fatigue (RR 1.42, CI 1.05-1.92), generalised weakness (RR 1.56 CI 1.23-1.98), headache (RR 1.14, CI 1.01-1.30), urinary incontinence (RR 1.25, CI 1.17-1.33), loss of consciousness (RR 1.30, CI 1.12-1.51), and mental status change (RR 1.37, CI 1.18-1.58), and lower risk of presenting with dizziness (RR 0.87, CI 0.80-0.95), dysarthria (RR 0.89, CI 0.82-0.95), imbalance (RR 0.68, CI 0.57-0.81), paraesthesia (RR 0.74, CI 0.58-0.93), and trouble walking (RR 0.83, CI 0.70-0.99). Finally, pooled RR of delayed or missed diagnosis for women compared to men was not statistically significant (RR 1.19, CI 0.94-1.49).

Conclusion: Though women and men commonly presented with similar symptoms, some sex differences were present which needs consideration in stroke evaluation.

Surgical management of intrathoracic wooden skewers migrating from the stomach and duodenum in dogs: 11 cases (2014-2020)

Objectives

To describe the clinical presentation, management and outcome of cases presenting with intrathoracic wooden skewers originating from the abdominal gastrointestinal tract.

Materials and Methods

Clinical records of dogs presented and treated for an intrathoracic wooden skewer were reviewed from June to August 2020. Data included signalment, clinical presentation, duration of clinical signs, haematological and biochemical abnormalities, diagnostic imaging findings, surgical procedure, postoperative complications and outcome.

Results

Eleven dogs were included in the study. In all cases, the foreign body was identified as a wooden skewer. The most common clinical signs were anorexia/hyporexia (n=7), vomiting/regurgitation (n=7), lethargy (n=6), pyrexia (n=4) and gait abnormalities/lameness (n=3). CT correctly identified a wooden skewer in all cases when performed (n=7). A coeliotomy combined with transdiaphragmatic thoracotomy was performed in six of 11 cases (55%), a coeliotomy combined with median sternotomy in four of 11 cases (36%) and a median sternotomy alone was performed in one case. Foreign bodies penetrated from the stomach (n=10) or the duodenum (n=1). Intrathoracic trauma was most commonly identified to the lungs (n=3) and pericardium (n=3). Complications occurred in three of 11 cases (27%), two minor and one resulting in death. Ten of the 11 cases (91%) survived to discharge. Long‐term outcome was available for seven of 11 cases (66%), all of them excellent.

Clinical Significance

Despite the challenges of managing wooden skewers penetrating the thoracic cavity from the abdominal gastrointestinal tract, the majority of the patients are stable to undergo diagnostic procedures, surgical exploration and management with low morbidity and excellent short‐ and long‐term prognosis.

Activated Charcoal and Bicarbonate for Aspirin Toxicity: a Retrospective Series

INTRODUCTION

Aspirin overdose causes acid-base disturbances and organ dysfunction. Management is guided by research reported over 50 years ago when chronic aspirin toxicity was common and accounted for significant morbidity. We investigate our experience of aspirin overdose and the effectiveness of charcoal and bicarbonate administration over 20 years.

METHODS

This is a retrospective series of acute aspirin overdose from two toxicology units from January 2000 to September 2019. Acute aspirin ingestions > 3000 mg were identified in each unit's database. Excluded were cases of chronic exposure, hospital presentation > 24 hours after ingestion, and cases without a salicylate concentration. Included in our analysis was demographic data, clinical effects, investigations, complications, and treatment.

RESULTS

There were 132 presentations in 108 patients (79 females (73%)). The median age was 28 years (range: 13-93 years). The median dose ingested was 7750 mg (IQR: 6000-14,400 mg). There were 44 aspirin-only ingestions. Mild toxicity (nausea, vomiting, tinnitus or hyperventilation) occurred in 22 with a median dose of 160 mg/kg. Moderate toxicity (acid-base disturbance, confusion) occurred in 16 with a median ingested dose of 297 mg/kg. There were no cases of severe toxicity (coma or seizures) due to aspirin alone. The median peak salicylate concentration was 276 mg/L (IQR: 175-400 mg/L, range: 14-814 mg/L). There was a moderate association between dose ingested and peak concentration (Pearson r = 0.58; 95% CI 0.45-0.68). Activated charcoal was administered in 36 (27%) cases, which decreased the median peak salicylate concentration (34.2 to 24.8 mg/L/g (difference: 9.4, 95% CI: 1.0-13.1)). Bicarbonate was administered in 34 (26%) presentations, decreasing the median apparent elimination half-life from 13.4 to 9.3 h (difference: 4.2 h, 95% CI: 1.0-6.5 h).

CONCLUSIONS

Acute aspirin overdose caused only mild to moderate effects in this series. Early administration of activated charcoal decreased absorption and use of bicarbonate enhanced elimination.

No pain, no gain? Associations of athletic participation with capability for suicide among college students

INTRODUCTION

Suicide is a leading cause of death among college students. In order to advance understanding of suicide risk factors in this population, the present study provides a theoretically grounded test of associations between experiences in sports and both facets of capability for suicide (i.e., fearlessness about death and pain tolerance). Secondarily, the present study aimed to explore possible distinctions between subjective and objective pain tolerance.

METHODS

Undergraduate students (N = 153) completed the study at a single timepoint. A pressure algometer was used to measure objective pain tolerance, and self-report questionnaires assessed subjective pain tolerance, fearlessness about death (FAD), sports participation, sports-related injuries, level of contact in sport, and weight manipulation practices for sport.

RESULTS

Athletes had greater capability for suicide (i.e., higher objective and subjective pain tolerance and greater FAD) relative to non-athletes. Sports-related injuries were positively associated with both FAD and subjective pain tolerance, and level of contact in sport was positively associated with FAD. Objective and subjective pain tolerance were moderately correlated.

CONCLUSIONS

Sports-related injuries and level of physical contact in athletics are associated with the facets of capability for suicide among college student athletes. Discrepancies in results between subjective and objective pain tolerance suggest important distinctions between these constructs.

Sex differences in predictors for cognitive decline and dementia in people with stroke or transient ischemic attack in the PROGRESS trial

BACKGROUND

Stroke and transient ischemic attack confer greater risk of cognitive decline and dementia.

AIMS

We used data from the Perindopril Protection Against Recurrent Stroke Study (PROGRESS), a blood pressure-lowering randomized controlled trial in stroke/transient ischemic attack. We evaluated overall and sex-specific differences in treatment effects for cognitive decline/dementia, as well as associations with vascular and stroke-specific predictors,considering death as a competing risk.

METHODS

Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate overall and sex-specific odds ratios (OR) (95% confidence intervals (CI)) for treatment effects and predictors associated with the risk of cognitive decline/dementia, and the women-to-men ratio of odds ratio (RORs).

RESULTS

Over a median four years, 763 cognitive decline/dementia (30.9% women) were recorded in 5888 participants. Women had lower odds of cognitive decline/dementia than men (OR 0.78, 95%CI 0.63-0.95). Active treatment was associated with lower odds of cognitive decline/dementia (0.84, 0.72-0.98), with no evidence of sex difference. Higher education (0.96,0.94-0.98 (per year)) and baseline Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE)) were associated with lower odds of cognitive decline/dementia (0.84,0.82-0.86 (per point higher)). Higher diastolic blood pressure (1.11,1.02-1.20 (per 10 mmHg)), low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 (1.27,1.03-1.58), and peripheral arterial disease (1.78,1.26-2.52) were associated with higher odds of cognitive decline/dementia. APOE ɛ4 was not associated with cognitive decline/dementia (1.05 (0.85-1.30)). Low eGFR was more strongly associated with cognitive decline/dementia in women than men (RORs, 1.60 (1.03-2.48)). Diabetes was more strongly associated with men than women.

CONCLUSIONS

Several risk factors were associated with cognitive decline/dementia in people with prior stroke/transient ischemic attack, with notable sex differences. Long-term cognitive sequelae of stroke should be considered to strengthen joint prevention strategies for stroke, cognitive decline, and dementia.Trial Registration: This trial was not registered because enrolment began before 1 July 2005.

Representation of Women in Stroke Clinical Trials: A Review of 281 Trials Involving More Than 500,000 Participants

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Women have been underrepresented in cardiovascular disease clinical trials but there is less certainty over the level of disparity specifically in stroke. We examined the participation of women in trials according to stroke prevalence in the population.

METHODS

Published randomized controlled trials with ≥100 participants enrolled between 1990 and 2020 were identified from ClinicalTrials.gov. To quantify sex disparities in enrollment, we calculated the participation to prevalence ratio (PPR), defined as the percentage of women participating in a trial vs the prevalence of women in the disease population.

RESULTS

There were 281 stroke trials eligible for analyses with a total of 588,887 participants, of whom 37.4% were women. Overall, women were represented at a lower proportion relative to their prevalence in the underlying population (mean PPR 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81-0.87). The greatest differences were observed in trials of intracerebral hemorrhage (PPR 0.73; 95% CI 0.71-0.74), trials with a mean age of participants <70 years (PPR 0.81; 95% CI 0.78-0.84), nonacute interventions (PPR 0.80; 95% CI 0.76-0.84), and rehabilitation trials (PPR 0.77; 95% CI 0.71-0.83). These findings did not significantly change over the period from 1990 to 2020 (p for trend = 0.201).

DISCUSSION

Women are disproportionately underrepresented in stroke trials relative to the burden of disease in the population. Clear guidance and effective implementation strategies are required to improve the inclusion of women and thus broader knowledge of the impact of interventions in clinical trials.

Sex and Gender in COVID-19 Vaccine Research: Substantial Evidence Gaps Remain

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a global call for sex/gender-disaggregated data to be made available, which has uncovered important findings about COVID-19 testing, incidence, severity, hospitalisations, and deaths. This mini review scopes the evidence base for efficacy, effectiveness, and safety of COVID-19 vaccines from both experimental and observational research, and asks whether (1) women and men were equally recruited and represented in vaccine research, (2) the outcomes of studies were presented or analysed by sex and/or gender, and (3) there is evidence of sex and/or gender differences in outcomes. Following a PubMed search, 41 articles were eligible for inclusion, including seven randomised controlled trials (RCTs), 11 cohort studies, eight cross-sectional surveys, eight routine surveillance studies, and seven case series. Overall, the RCTs contained equal representation of women and men; however, the observational studies contained a higher percentage of women. Of 10 studies with efficacy data, only three (30%) presented sex/gender-disaggregated results. Safety data was included in 35 studies and only 12 (34%) of these presented data by sex/gender. For those that did present disaggregated data, overall, the majority of participants reporting adverse events were women. There is a paucity of reporting and analysis of COVID-19 vaccine data by sex/gender. Research should be designed in a gender-sensitive way to present and, where possible analyse, data by sex/gender to ensure that there is a robust and specific evidence base of efficacy and safety data to assist in building public confidence and promote high vaccine coverage.

Social deprivation as a risk factor for COVID-19 mortality among women and men in the UK Biobank: nature of risk and context suggests that social interventions are essential to mitigate the effects of future pandemics

OBJECTIVES

To investigate sex differences in the effects of social deprivation on COVID-19 mortality and to place these effects in context with other diseases.

DESIGN

Prospective population-based study.

SETTING

UK Biobank.

PARTICIPANTS

501 865 participants (54% women).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death.

RESULTS

Of 472 946 participants alive when COVID-19 was first apparent in the UK (taken as 1 February 2020), 217 (34% women) died from COVID-19 over the next 10 months, resulting in an incidence, per 100 000 person years, of 100.65 (95% CI 79.47 to 121.84) for women and 228.59 (95% CI 194.88 to 262.30) for men. Greater social deprivation, quantified using the Townsend Deprivation Score, was associated with greater risk of fatal COVD-19. Adjusted for age and ethnicity, HRs for women and men, comparing those in the most with the least deprived national fifths, were 3.66 (2.82 to 4.75) for women and 3.00 (2.46 to 3.66) for men. Adjustments for key baseline lifestyle factors attenuated these HRs to 2.20 (1.63 to 2.96) and 2.62 (2.12 to 3.24), respectively. There was evidence of a log-linear trend in the deprivation-fatal COVID-19 association, of similar magnitude to the equivalent trends for the associations between deprivation and fatal influenza or pneumonia and fatal cardiovascular disease. For all three causes of death, there was no evidence of a sex difference in the associations.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher social deprivation is a risk factor for death from COVID-19 on a continuous scale, with two to three times the risk in the most disadvantaged 20% compared with the least. Similarities between the social gradients in COVID-19, influenza/pneumonia and cardiovascular disease mortality, the lack of sex differences in these effects, and the partial mediation of lifestyle factors suggest that better social policies are crucial to alleviate the general medical burden, including from the current, and potential future, viral pandemics.

A bespoke data linkage of an IVF clinical quality registry to population health datasets; methods and performance

Introduction

Assisted reproductive technologies (ART), such as in-vitro fertilisation (IVF), have revolutionised the treatment of infertility, with an estimated 8 million babies born worldwide. However, the long-term health outcomes for women and their offspring remain an area of concern. Linking IVF treatment data to long-term health data is the most efficient method for assessing such outcomes.

Objectives

To describe the creation and performance of a bespoke population-based data linkage of an ART clinical quality registry to state-based and national administrative datasets.

Methods

The linked dataset was created by deterministically and probabilistically linking the Australia and New Zealand Assisted Reproduction Database (ANZARD) to New South Wales (NSW) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) administrative datasets (performed by NSW Centre for Health Record Linkage (CHeReL)) and to national claims datasets (performed by Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW)). The CHeReL’s Master Linkage Key (MLK) was used as a bridge between ANZARD’s partially identifiable patient data (statistical linkage key) and NSW and ACT administrative datasets. CHeReL then provided personal identifiers to the AIHW to obtain national content data. The results of the linkage were reported, and concordance between births recorded in ANZARD and perinatal data collections (PDCs) was evaluated.

Results

Of the 62,833 women who had ART treatment in NSW or ACT, 60,419 could be linked to the CHeReL MLK (linkage rate: 96.2%). A reconciliation of ANZARD-recorded births among NSW residents found that 94.2% (95% CI: 93.9–94.4%) of births were also recorded in state/territory-based PDCs. A high concordance was found in plurality status and birth outcome ≥99% agreement rate, Cohen’s kappa ranged: 0.78–0.98) between ANZARD and PDCs.

Conclusion

The data linkage resource demonstrates that high linkage rates can be achieved with partially identifiable data and that a population spine, such as the CHeReL’s MLK, can be successfully used as a bridge between clinical registries and administrative datasets.

Gastroesophageal intussusception secondary to induction of emesis with subsequent development of septic pericardial effusion after corrective surgery

A juvenile boxer dog was diagnosed with gastroesophageal intussusception that occurred after the induction of emesis with apomorphine. A ventral midline coeliotomy and diaphragmotomy were performed and the intussusception was manually reduced. Despite initial satisfactory recovery, the dog was diagnosed with cardiac tamponade 1 week post-operatively. Escherichia coli was cultured from pericardial and pleural effusion samples. During subtotal pericardiectomy surgery the pericardium was found to be markedly thickened with adhesions to the epicardium, thoracic wall and diaphragm. Substantial haemorrhage and refractory hypotension necessitated the administration of a blood transfusion during surgery. The dog entered cardiac arrest in the immediate post-operative period and cardiopulmonary resuscitation was unfortunately unsuccessful. Gastroesophageal intussusception should be considered a possible severe adverse effect of administering apomorhine to induce emesis in dogs. Additionally, septic pericardial and pleural effusions may occur post-reduction of gastroesophageal intussusception.

Sex differences in risk factors for cognitive decline and dementia, including death as a competing risk, in individuals with diabetes: Results from the ADVANCE trial

AIM

To estimate the associations between risk factors and cognitive decline (CD)/dementia, and the sex differences in these risk factors in individuals with type 2 diabetes, while accounting for the competing risk of death.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) trial of 11,140 individuals with type 2 diabetes was used to estimate the odds of CD/dementia using multinomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

During a median 5-year follow-up, 1827 participants (43.2% women) had CD/dementia (1718 with CD only; 21 with dementia only; 88 with CD and dementia), and 929 (31.0% women) died without CD/dementia. Women had lower odds of CD/dementia than men (odds ratio [OR] [95% confidence interval], 0.88 [0.77, 1.00]); older age, higher total cholesterol, HbA1c, waist circumference, waist-to-height ratio, moderately increased albumin-creatinine ratio, stroke/transient ischaemic attack and retinal disease were each associated with greater odds of CD/dementia; higher years at education completion, baseline cognitive function, taller stature and current alcohol use were inversely associated. Higher waist circumference (women-to-men ratio of ORs [ROR], 1.05 [1.00, 1.10] per 5 cm) and presence of anxiety/depression (ROR, 1.28 [1.01, 1.63]) were associated with greater ORs for CD/dementia in women than men.

CONCLUSIONS

Several risk factors were associated with CD/dementia. Higher waist circumference and mental health symptoms were more strongly associated with CD/dementia in women than men. Further studies should examine the mechanisms that underlie these sex differences.

The Impact of Frailty on the Effectiveness and Safety of Intensive Glucose Control and Blood Pressure-Lowering Therapy for People With Type 2 Diabetes: Results From the ADVANCE Trial

OBJECTIVE

To develop a frailty index (FI) and explore the relationship of frailty to subsequent adverse outcomes on the effectiveness and safety of more intensive control of both blood glucose and blood pressure (BP), among participants with type 2 diabetes in the Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) trial.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the effectiveness and safety of intensive glucose control and BP intervention according to frailty (defined as FI >0.21) status. The primary outcomes were macro- and microvascular events. The secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, severe hypoglycemia, and discontinuation of BP treatment due to hypotension/dizziness.

RESULTS

There were 11,140 participants (mean age, 65.8 years; 42.5% women, 25.7% frail). Frailty was an independent predictor of all primary outcomes and secondary outcomes. The effect of intensive glucose treatment on primary outcomes showed some evidence of attenuation in the frail: hazard ratios for combined major macro- and microvascular events 1.03 (95% CI 0.90-1.19) in the frail versus 0.84 (95% CI 0.74-0.94) in the nonfrail (P = 0.02). A similar trend was observed with BP intervention. Severe hypoglycemia rates (per 1,000 person-years) were higher in the frail: 8.39 (6.15-10.63) vs. 4.80 (3.84-5.76) in nonfrail (P < 0.001). There was no significant difference in discontinuation of BP treatment between frailty groups.

CONCLUSIONS

It was possible to retrospectively estimate frailty in a trial population, and this FI identified those at higher risk of poor outcomes. Participants with frailty had some attenuation of benefit from intensive glucose-lowering and BP-lowering treatments.

Variability in estimated glomerular filtration rate and the risk of major clinical outcomes in diabetes: Post hoc analysis from the ADVANCE trial

There are limited data on whether estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) variability modifies the risk of future clinical outcomes in type 2 diabetes (T2D). We assessed the association between 20-month eGFR variability and the risk of major clinical outcomes in T2D among 8241 participants in the ADVANCE trial. Variability in eGFR (coefficient of variation [CV_eGFR ]) was calculated from three serum creatinine measurements over 20 months. Participants were classified into three groups by thirds of CV_eGFR : low (≤6.4; reference), moderate (>6.4 to ≤12.1) and high (>12.1). The primary outcome was the composite of major macrovascular events, new or worsening nephropathy and all-cause mortality. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs). Over a median follow-up of 2.9 years following the 20-month period, 932 (11.3%) primary outcomes were recorded. Compared with low variability, greater 20-month eGFR variability was independently associated with higher risk of the primary outcome (HR for moderate and high variability: 1.07, 95% CI: 0.91-1.27 and 1.22, 95% CI: 1.03-1.45, respectively) with evidence of a positive linear trend (p = .015). These data indicate that eGFR variability predict changes in the risk of major clinical outcomes in T2D.

Sex differences in the association between major cardiovascular risk factors in midlife and dementia: a cohort study using data from the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Sex differences in major cardiovascular risk factors for incident (fatal or non-fatal) all-cause dementia were assessed in the UK Biobank. The effects of these risk factors on all-cause dementia were explored by age and socioeconomic status (SES).

METHODS

Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and women-to-men ratio of HRs (RHR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), smoking, diabetes, adiposity, stroke, SES and lipids with dementia. Poisson regression was used to estimate the sex-specific incidence rate of dementia for these risk factors.

RESULTS

502,226 individuals in midlife (54.4% women, mean age 56.5 years) with no prevalent dementia were included in the analyses. Over 11.8 years (median), 4068 participants (45.9% women) developed dementia. The crude incidence rates were 5.88 [95% CI 5.62-6.16] for women and 8.42 [8.07-8.78] for men, per 10,000 person-years. Sex was associated with the risk of dementia, where the risk was lower in women than men (HR = 0.83 [0.77-0.89]). Current smoking, diabetes, high adiposity, prior stroke and low SES were associated with a greater risk of dementia, similarly in women and men. The relationship between blood pressure (BP) and dementia was U-shaped in men but had a dose-response relationship in women: the HR for SBP per 20 mmHg was 1.08 [1.02-1.13] in women and 0.98 [0.93-1.03] in men. This sex difference was not affected by the use of antihypertensive medication at baseline. The sex difference in the effect of raised BP was consistent for dementia subtypes (vascular dementia and Alzheimer's disease).

CONCLUSIONS

Several mid-life cardiovascular risk factors were associated with dementia similarly in women and men, but not raised BP. Future bespoke BP-lowering trials are necessary to understand its role in restricting cognitive decline and to clarify any sex difference.

Female age is associated with the optimal number of oocytes to maximize fresh live birth rates: an analysis of 256,643 fresh ART cycles

RESEARCH QUESTION

What is the optimal number of oocytes retrieved at which maximum live birth rate is observed after fresh autologous assisted reproductive technology (ART) cycles for women of different ages?

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study of all fresh autologous ART aspiration cycles (n = 256,643) undertaken in Australia and New Zealand between 2009 and 2015. Primary outcome measure was live birth rate (LBR) (delivery of at least one liveborn baby at 20 weeks' gestation or over per fresh aspiration cycle). Cycles were grouped according to female age (<30, 30-34, 35-49, 40-44 and ≥45 years) and ovarian response (one to three, four to nine, 10-14, 15-19, 20-25 and ≥25 oocytes). Secondary outcome was incidence of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS) requiring hospitalization.

RESULTS

At different oocyte yields, LBR per fresh aspiration cycle peaked and then declined at, depending on female age: <30 years: six to 11 oocytes (LBR 31-34%); 30-34 years: 11-16 oocytes (LBR 29-30%); 35-39 years: nine to 17 oocytes (LBR 21-24%); and 40-44 years: 15-17 oocytes (LBR 11-12%). The incidence of OHSS increased significantly with the number of oocytes retrieved, from 1.2% with 15 oocytes retrieved to 9.3% with 30 or more oocytes retrieved (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The optimal number of oocytes at which maximum LBR was observed in a fresh aspiration cycle was highly dependent on age. Because of the observational nature of the results, a cause-effect relationship between the number of oocytes retrieved and LBR should not be assumed; evidence from well-designed randomized control trials is required before clinical advice can be suggested.

Microbiome Understanding in Maternity Study (MUMS), an Australian prospective longitudinal cohort study of maternal and infant microbiota: study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Pregnancy induces significant physiological and cardiometabolic changes, and is associated with alterations in the maternal microbiota. Increasing rates of prepregnancy obesity, metabolic abnormalities and reduced physical activity, all impact negatively on the microbiota causing an imbalance between the commensal microorganisms (termed dysbiosis), which may drive complications, such as gestational diabetes or hypertensive disorders. Considerable work is needed to define the inter-relationships between the microbiome, nutrition, physical activity and pregnancy outcomes. The role of the microbiota during pregnancy remains unclear. The aim of the study is to define microbiota signatures longitudinally throughout pregnancy and the first year post birth, and to identify key clinical and environmental variables that shape the female microbiota profile during and following pregnancy.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Microbiome Understanding in Maternity Study (MUMS) is an Australian prospective longitudinal cohort study involving 100 mother-infant pairs. Women are enrolled in their first trimester and followed longitudinally. Assessment occurs at <13+0, 20+0-24+6 and 32+0-36+6 weeks gestation, birth and 6 weeks, 6 months and 12 months postpartum. At each assessment, self-collected oral, vaginal and faecal samples are collected with an additional postpartum skin swab and breastmilk sample. Each infant will have oral, faecal and skin swab samples collected. Measurements include anthropometrics, body composition, blood pressure, serum hormonal and metabolic parameters and vaginal pH. Dietary intake, physical activity and psychological state will be assessed using validated self-report questionnaires, and pregnancy and infant outcomes recorded. Parametric and non-parametric hypothesis tests will be used to test the association between high-risk and low-risk pregnancies and their outcomes.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study received the following approval: South Eastern Sydney Local Health District Research Ethics Committee (17/293 (HREC/17/POWH/605). Results will be made available to the participants of MUMS, their families and the funding bodies; in the form of a summary document. Results for the greater maternity care community and other researchers will be disseminated through conferences, local, national and international presentations and peer-reviewed publications.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12618000471280 (prospectively registered).