Level of asthma control and health care utilization in Asia-Pacific countries

BACKGROUND

Data on the impact of asthma in many countries in the Asia-Pacific region is limited. This study investigated whether partly- and uncontrolled asthma were associated with increased medication use/healthcare utilization and productivity loss among a population of asthma patients from nine Asia-Pacific countries.

METHODS

We used cross-sectional data from 3630 asthma patients ≥12 years from the 2011 Asia-Pacific Asthma Insights and Management (AP-AIM) survey. Using Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) guidelines, patients were categorized as having well-controlled, partly- controlled, or uncontrolled asthma. Chi-square tests were used to assess the relation of degree of asthma control with utilization of asthma medications, health services, productivity, and mood.

RESULTS

Overall, 7.6% of the patients surveyed had asthma that was well-controlled, with the highest proportions in Singapore (14%) and the lowest in India (0%) and China (2%). Patients whose asthma was not well-controlled reported greater use of asthma medications, more emergency healthcare visits or hospitalizations for their asthma, and more interference of their mood due to asthma. They also reported significant decreases in productivity due to asthma.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who did not have well-controlled asthma had greater utilization rates of asthma medications and healthcare services and were more likely to report missing multiple days of work/school compared to patients whose asthma was well-controlled. These associations suggest that emphasis on improving asthma control could have dramatic effects on patient well-being and utilization of healthcare resources.

Advanced diagnostic breast cancer imaging: variation and patterns of care in Washington state

INTRODUCTION

Because receipt of breast imaging likely occurs in nonrandom patterns, selection bias is an important issue in studies that attempt to elucidate associations between imaging and breast cancer outcomes. The purpose of this study was to analyze use of advanced diagnostic imaging in a cohort of patients with breast cancer insured by commercial, managed care, and public health plans by demographic, health insurance, and clinical variables from 2002 to 2009.

METHODS

We identified women with breast cancer diagnoses from a Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registry whose data could be linked to claims from participating health plans. We examined imaging that occurred between cancer diagnosis and initiation of treatment and classified patients according to receipt of (1) mammography or ultrasound only; (2) breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI); and (3) other advanced imaging (computed tomography [CT] of the chest, abdoment, and pelvis; positron emission tomography [PET]; or PET-CT). We used logistic regression to identify factors associated with receipt of breast MRI as well as other advanced imaging.

RESULTS

Commercial health plan, younger age, and later year of diagnosis were strongly associated with receipt of breast MRI and other advanced imaging. Women with prescription drug plans and those who had less comorbidities were more likely to have received breast MRI.

CONCLUSION

Use of breast MRI and other advanced imaging is increasing among patients newly diagnosed with breast cancer; individual patient and insurance-related factors are associated with receipt of these imaging tests. Whether use of diagnostic advanced imaging affects outcomes such as re-excision, cancer recurrence, mortality rates, and costs of breast cancer treatment remains to be determined.

Asthma control, cost and race: results from a national survey

OBJECTIVE

Although interventions have been shown to alleviate symptoms in most patients suffering from asthma, only one-third of asthma patients have disease that is well-controlled. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether partly and uncontrolled asthmas are associated with increased costs for asthma-related healthcare utilization compared to well-controlled asthma and to determine whether these associations differed across racial groups.

METHODS

We classified respondents from the Asthma Insights and Management survey into those with well-, partly and uncontrolled asthma and compared utilization of healthcare services and costs among these groups, as well as between whites and non-whites.

RESULTS

Respondents categorized as having asthma that was not well-controlled reported lower income levels, higher rates of unemployment and more trouble paying for healthcare; similar results were found in analyses stratified by race. Patients whose asthma was partly or uncontrolled had greater use of asthma-related medications and medical services compared to patients whose asthma was well-controlled. Total unadjusted and adjusted costs were greater in patients whose asthma was classified as partly and uncontrolled. Similar results were found in analyses stratified on race. Across all levels of asthma control, non-whites had higher rates of utilization of emergency rooms and urgent care facilities and had greater rates of hospitalizations compared to whites.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that patients with asthma that is not well-controlled utilized more healthcare resources and had greater medical costs, despite lacking of health insurance which may suggest less access to care.

The emergence of diagnostic imaging technologies in breast cancer: discovery, regulatory approval, reimbursement, and adoption in clinical guidelines

In this article, we trace the chronology of developments in breast imaging technologies that are used for diagnosis and staging of breast cancer, including mammography, ultrasonography, magnetic resonance imaging, computed tomography, and positron emission tomography. We explore factors that affected clinical acceptance and utilization of these technologies from discovery to clinical use, including milestones in peer-reviewed publication, US Food and Drug Administration approval, reimbursement by payers, and adoption into clinical guidelines. The factors driving utilization of new imaging technologies are mainly driven by regulatory approval and reimbursement by payers rather than evidence that they provide benefits to patients. Comparative effectiveness research can serve as a useful tool to investigate whether these imaging modalities provide information that improves patient outcomes in real-world settings.

Reliability of the Cerebral Performance Category to classify neurological status among survivors of ventricular fibrillation arrest: a cohort study

Background

The Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) score is widely used in research and quality assurance to assess neurologic outcome following cardiac arrest. However, little is known about the inter- and intra-reviewer reliability of the CPC.

Methods

We undertook an investigation to assess the inter-reviewer and source document reliability of the CPC among a cohort of survivors from out-of-hospital ventricular fibrillation cardiac arrest (n = 131) in a large metropolitan area between November 1, 2003 and December 31, 2005. Subjects with a CPC of 1 or 2 were classified as favorable outcome and those with CPC 3 or greater were classified as unfavorable outcome. One abstractor first used the discharge summary alone to determine the CPC. All 3 abstractors independently reviewed the entire hospital record. Reliability was assessed by determining the proportion of determinations that agreed between abstractors and the respective kappa statistics. We also evaluated the implications for determining survival with favorable neurological outcome when survival to hospital discharge was 20% and 30%.

Results

When the entire hospital record was used to determine CPC, favorable neurologic outcome (CPC 1 or 2) was recorded in 92% by abstractor 1, 89% by abstractor 2, and 74% by abstractor 3. Agreement was 96% (kappa = 0.78) between abstractors 1 and 2, 84% (kappa = 0.49) between abstractors 2 and 3, 82% (kappa = 0.38) between abstractors 1 and 3. The 3-way kappa was 0.50. Agreement was 90% (kappa = 0.71) between the discharge summary alone and the entire hospital record. If the results from review of the entire record are applied to a circumstance where survival to discharge is 20%, favorable neurologic status would occur in 18.4% for abstractor 1, 17.8% for abstractor 2, and 14.8% for abstractor 3. For survival to hospital discharge of 30%, favorable neurologic status would occur in 27.6% for abstractor 1, 26.7% for abstractor 2, and 22.2% for abstractor 3.

Conclusions

In this cohort study of survivors of out-of-hospital ventricular fibrillation cardiac arrest, the use of the CPC to classify favorable versus unfavorable neurological status at hospital discharge produced variable inter- and intra-reviewer agreement. The findings provide useful context to interpret outcome evaluations that report CPC.

The relationship between multiple myeloma and occupational exposure to six chlorinated solvents

OBJECTIVES

Few studies have examined whether exposure to chlorinated solvents is associated with multiple myeloma. We evaluated associations between multiple myeloma and occupational exposure to six chlorinated solvents: 1,1,1-trichloroethane, trichloroethylene (TCE), methylene chloride (DCM), perchloroethylene, carbon tetrachloride and chloroform.

METHODS

In-person interviews obtained occupational histories and information on jobs with likely solvent exposure. We assigned exposure metrics of probability, frequency, intensity and confidence using job-exposure matrices modified by job-specific questionnaire information. We used logistic regression to estimate ORs and 95% CIs for associations between multiple myeloma and ever exposure to each, and any, chlorinated solvent and analysed whether associations varied by duration and cumulative exposure. We also considered all occupations that were given the lowest confidence scores as unexposed and repeated all analyses.

RESULTS

Risk of multiple myeloma was elevated for subjects ever exposed to 1,1,1-trichloroethane (OR (95% CI): 1.8 (1.1 to 2.9)). Ever exposure to TCE or DCM also entailed elevated, but not statistically significant, risks of multiple myeloma; these became statistically significant when occupations with low confidence scores were considered unexposed (TCE: 1.7 (1.0 to 2.7); DCM: 2.0 (1.2 to 3.2)). Increasing cumulative exposure to perchloroethylene was also associated with increasing multiple myeloma risk. We observed non-significantly increased multiple myeloma risks with exposure to chloroform; however, few subjects were exposed.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence from this relatively large case-control study suggests that exposures to certain chlorinated solvents may be associated with increased incidence of multiple myeloma; however, the study is limited by relatively low participation (52%) among controls.

Occupation and multiple myeloma: an occupation and industry analysis

BACKGROUND

Multiple myeloma (MM) is an incurable plasma cell malignancy with a poorly understood etiology. The purpose of our research was to examine the relationships between lifetime occupations and MM in a relatively large case-control study.

METHODS

MM cases (n = 180) were identified through cancer registries in the Seattle-Puget Sound area and Detroit. Population-based controls (n = 481) were identified using random digit dialing and Medicare and Medicaid Services files. In-person interviews were conducted to ascertain occupational histories. Standard occupational classification (SOC) and standard industrial classification (SIC) codes were assigned to each job held by each participant. Unconditional logistic regression was used to generate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between MM and having ever worked in each occupation/industry and according to duration of employment in an occupation/industry.

RESULTS

The risk of MM was associated with several manufacturing occupations and industries, including machine operators and tenders, not elsewhere classified (SOC 76) (OR = 1.8, CI = 1.0-3.3); textile, apparel, and furnishing machine operators and tenders (SOC 765) (OR = 6.0, CI = 1.7-21); and machinery manufacturing, except electrical (SIC 35) (OR = 3.3, CI = 1.7-6.7). Several service occupations and industries, such as food and beverage preparation (SOC 521) (OR = 2.0, CI = 1.1-3.8), were also associated with MM. One occupation that has been associated with MM in several previous studies, painters, paperhangers, and plasterers (SOC 644) was associated with a non-significantly elevated risk (OR = 3.6, CI = 0.7-19).

CONCLUSIONS

We found associations between the risk of MM and employment in several manufacturing and service-related occupations and industries.

Procainamide and survival in ventricular fibrillation out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

OBJECTIVES

Procainamide is an antiarrhythmic drug of unproven efficacy in cardiac arrest. The association between procainamide and survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest was investigated to better determine the drug's potential role in resuscitation.

METHODS

The authors conducted a 10-year study of all witnessed, out-of-hospital, ventricular fibrillation (VF) or pulseless ventricular tachycardia (VT) cardiac arrests treated by emergency medical services (EMS) in King County, Washington. Patients were considered eligible for procainamide if they received more than three defibrillation shocks and intravenous (IV) bolus lidocaine. Four logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) describing the relationship between procainamide and survival.

RESULTS

Of the 665 eligible patients, 176 received procainamide, and 489 did not. On average, procainamide recipients received more shocks and pharmacologic interventions and had lengthier resuscitations. Adjusted for their clinical and resuscitation characteristics, procainamide recipients had a lower likelihood of survival to hospital discharge (OR = 0.52; 95% CI = 0.36 to 0.75). Further adjustment for receipt of other cardiac medications during resuscitation negated this apparent adverse association (OR = 1.02; 95% CI = 0.66 to 1.57).

CONCLUSIONS

In this observational study of out-of-hospital VF and pulseless VT arrest, procainamide as second-line antiarrhythmic treatment was not associated with survival in models attempting to best account for confounding. The results suggest that procainamide, as administered in this investigation, does not have a large impact on outcome, but cannot eliminate the possibility of a smaller, clinically relevant effect on survival.

The relationship between time to arrival of emergency medical services (EMS) and survival from out-of-hospital ventricular fibrillation cardiac arrest

AIM

We examined the relationship between time from collapse to arrival of emergency medical services (EMS) and survival to hospital discharge for out-of-hospital ventricular fibrillation cardiac arrests in order to determine meaningful interpretations of this association.

METHODS

We calculated survival rates in 1-min intervals from collapse to EMS arrival. Additionally, we used logistic regression to determine the absolute probability of survival per minute of delayed EMS arrival. We created a logistic regression model with spline terms for the time variable to examine the decline in survival in intervals that are hypothesized to be physiologically relevant.

RESULTS

The observed data showed survival declined, on average, by 3% for each minute that EMS was delayed following collapse. Survival rates did not decline appreciably if the time between collapse and arrival of EMS was 4 min or less but they declined by 5.2% per minute between 5 and 10 min. EMS arrival 11-15 min after collapse showed a less steep decline in survival of 1.9% per minute. The spline model that incorporated changes in slope in the time interval variable modeled this relationship more accurately than a model with a continuous term for time (p=0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The results of our analyses show that survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest does not decline at a constant rate following collapse. Models that incorporate changes that reflect the physiological alterations that occur following cardiac arrests are a more accurate way to describe changes in survival rates over time than models that include only a continuous term for time.

Systematic literature review of uses and levels of occupational exposure to tetrachloroethylene

Tetrachloroethylene has been one of the most widely used chlorinated solvents in the United States. This review provides a basis for tetrachloroethylene exposure assessment in population-based case-control studies. We performed literature searches in MEDLINE, TOXLINE, NIOSHTIC, and the NIOSH Health Hazard Evaluation databases using relevant search terms. We calculated weighted arithmetic means from the measurement data and compiled these into three summary tables by type of operation: (1) dry cleaning, (2) degreasing, and (3) other operations. We identified 258 relevant documents, of which 179 (69%) contained useful descriptive information. Within the dry cleaning industry, the overall arithmetic mean (AM) for personal tetrachloroethylene exposures was 59 ppm (range: 0-4636, n = 1395). Machine operators who transferred wet garments to a dryer had the highest levels (AM = 150 ppm [range: 0-1000, n = 441]) of the jobs in this industry. The AM for personal measurements associated with degreasing was 95 ppm (range: 0-1800, n = 206). In addition, we identified several other sources of substantial tetrachloroethylene exposure, including cleaning mining equipment, testing coal, cleaning animal coats in taxidermy, and cleaning and duplicating film. Exposure assessment in population-based, case-control studies is a complex process requiring substantial resources. Researchers conducting these types of studies will be able to use results of the measurements to quantify tetrachloroethylene exposure levels for various jobs.

Ventricular fibrillation in King County, Washington: a 30-year perspective

AIM

We determined the effect of four major program changes over a 30-year period on survival from witnessed cardiac arrest (CA) with ventricular fibrillation (VF) as the rhythm causing collapse.

METHODS

We conducted an investigation of emergency medical services (EMS)-treated CA occurring between 1978 and 2007. Data were obtained from a registry maintained by the King County Emergency Medical Services Division. Using Utstein style definitions, we measured changes in patient survival in light of four programs that were implemented during the span of the study: defibrillation by emergency medical technicians (EMTs), dispatcher-assisted cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), public access defibrillation, and a CPR-defibrillation protocol that replaced delivery of three sequential shocks with administration of one shock followed by 2 min of CPR.

RESULTS

Overall survival from witnessed VF during the study period was 34%. While demographic characteristics of patients in CA remained constant, we observed greater rates of survival in the years following the program changes, 1983-2006, compared to survival in the period before the changes, 1977-1982. The greatest increase in survival occurred following the CPR-defibrillation protocol change in 2005.

CONCLUSION

Despite adverse temporal trends, the four program changes appear to have contributed to increasing survival rates from out-of-hospital cardiac arrests in King County.

Cost-effectiveness of automated external defibrillators in public places: pro

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Placement of automated external defibrillators in public facilities is a cost-effective treatment for out-of-hospital cardiac arrests. This review describes the literature citing the benefits of early defibrillation, ease of use, and relative cost of automated external defibrillators.

RECENT FINDINGS

Placement of automated external defibrillators in public places was recommended by the American Heart Association in the early 1990s. Compared with waiting for traditional emergency medical services, immediate use of automated external defibrillators by laypersons can dramatically increase survival to hospital discharge rates. Placement of automated external defibrillators at locations such as casinos, airports, and airplanes that are frequented by large numbers of at-risk people is cost-effective compared with other economically acceptable health measures. Studies using simulations to predict numbers of quality-adjusted life years that would be gained from implementation of public access defibrillation programs in high-incidence locations find that the cost would be less than the typically acceptable 50,000 dollars per quality-adjusted life year. The cost estimates, however, depend on the incidence of cardiac arrest at the sites, with low-incidence sites being prohibitively expensive.

SUMMARY

Automated external defibrillators appear to be cost-effective in locations with high incidences of cardiac arrest.

Systemic autoimmune disease mortality and occupational exposures

OBJECTIVE

To generate hypotheses regarding occupational exposures that may cause systemic autoimmune diseases.

METHODS

Based on examination of US death certificates, we identified deaths in 26 states for which a cause was listed as rheumatoid arthritis (RA) (n = 36,178), systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) (n = 7,241), systemic sclerosis (n = 5,642), or other systemic autoimmune disease (n = 4,270). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated to estimate associations between occupation and death from any systemic autoimmune disease, and from RA, SLE, and systemic sclerosis, specifically. Additionally, we estimated risks associated with occupational exposures, which were assigned using job-exposure matrices.

RESULTS

A broad array of occupations was associated with death from systemic autoimmune diseases, including several of a priori interest. Farming occupation was associated with death from any systemic autoimmune disease (OR 1.3 [95% CI 1.2-1.4]), and increased risk was also seen with occupational exposure to animals and pesticides. Several industrial occupations were associated with death from any systemic autoimmune disease, including mining machine operators (OR 1.3 [95% CI 1.1-1.5]), miscellaneous textile machine operators (OR 1.2 [95% CI 1.0-1.4]), and hand painting, coating, and decorating occupations (OR 1.8 [95% CI 1.0-2.9]). These occupations were also significantly associated with death from the specific autoimmune diseases examined. Certain occupations entailing exposure to the public, such as teachers, were associated with systemic autoimmune disease-related death, whereas others, such as waiters and waitresses, were not.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that death from systemic autoimmune diseases may be associated with occupational exposures encountered in farming and industry. The hypotheses generated in this study provide leads for future research on determinants of these diseases.

Metabolic gene variants and risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma

Genes involved in metabolism of environmental chemical exposures exhibit sequence variability that may mediate the risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. We evaluated associations between non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and 15 variants in AHR, CYP1A1, CYP1A2, CYP1B1, CYP2C9, CYP2E1, GSTP1, GSTM3, EPHX1, NQO1, and PON1. Cases were identified from four Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries in the United States, and population-based controls were identified through random-digit dialing and Medicare eligibility files. Metabolic gene variants were characterized for the 1,172 (89% of total) cases and 982 (93%) controls who provided biological samples for genotyping. Subjects who were heterozygous or homozygous for the cytochrome P450 gene variant CYP1B1 V432L G allele were at slightly greater risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma [odds ratio (OR), 1.27; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.97-1.65]; these results were consistent across B-cell lymphoma subtypes and among both non-Hispanic White and Black subjects, although not statistically significant. The CYP2E1 -1054T allele was associated with decreased risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (CT and TT genotypes combined OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.37-0.93), and this pattern was observed among all histologic subtypes. The numbers of cases of particular subtypes were rather small for stable estimates, but we noted that the PON1 L55M AA allele, associated with slightly increased risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (variant homozygotes OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 0.96-1.95), was most strongly associated with follicular non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and T-cell lymphoma, with ORs for variant homozygotes of 2.12 and 2.93, respectively. There was no overall association with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma for the other gene variants we examined. The modest effects we observed may reflect the context of exposures within the general population represented in our study.

Brain tumors and occupational exposures in a cohort of female textile workers in Shanghai, China

OBJECTIVES

This study assessed the associations between brain tumors and specific processes and exposures among female textile workers in Shanghai, China.

METHODS

A case-cohort study was conducted that was nested in a cohort of textile workers originally included in a randomized trial of breast self-examination. Incident brain tumor cases (N=114) were identified from 1989 to 1998 from a tumor and death registry operated by the Shanghai Textile Industry Bureau. A subcohort (N=3188), representing an age-stratified random sample of the entire cohort, was selected as a comparison group. Job-exposure matrices were created to assess historical exposures to specific agents, including quantitative assessments for cotton dust and endotoxin exposure. Cox proportional hazards modeling, modified according to a case-cohort design, was used to analyze associations between jobs and exposures and the risk of brain tumors.

RESULTS

Employment in maintenance workshops was associated with an increased brain tumor incidence (ever-never exposed hazard ratio 2.36, 95% confidence interval 1.12-4.97), with increasing hazard ratios by duration of employment in maintenance jobs. Handling or processing wool fibers was associated with an increased risk of brain tumors, as was specific exposure to wool fibers; however, estimates did not increase with duration of employment.

CONCLUSIONS

These results provide some preliminary suggestion that employment in textile industry maintenance jobs and exposure to wool products may be associated with an increased risk of brain tumors.

Compendium of chemical carcinogens by target organ: results of chronic bioassays in rats, mice, hamsters, dogs, and monkeys

A compendium of carcinogenesis bioassay results organized by target organ is presented for 738 chemicals that are carcinogenic in chronic-exposure, long-term bioassays in at least 1 species. This compendium is based primarily on experiments in rats or mice; results in hamsters, monkeys, and dogs are also reported. The compendium can be used to identify chemicals that induce tumors at particular sites and to determine whether target sites are the same for chemicals positive in more than 1 species. The source of information is the Carcinogenic Potency Database (CPDB). which includes results of 6073 experiments on 1458 chemicals (positive or negative for carcinogenicity) that have been reported in Technical Reports of the National Cancer Institute/National Toxicology Program or in papers in the general published literature. The published CPDB includes detailed analyses of each test and citations. The CPDB is publicly available in several formats (http://potency.berkeley.edu). Chemical carcinogens are reported for 35 different target organs in rats or mice. Target organs in humans are also summarized for 82 agents that have been evaluated as human carcinogens at a particular target site by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). Comparisons are provided of target organs for mutagens versus nonmutagens and rats versus mice.

Paracelsus to parascience: the environmental cancer distraction

Entering a new millennium seems a good time to challenge some old ideas, which in our view are implausible, have little supportive evidence, and might best be left behind. In this essay, we summarize a decade of work, raising four issues that involve toxicology, nutrition, public health, and government regulatory policy. (a) Paracelsus or parascience: the dose (trace) makes the poison. Half of all chemicals, whether natural or synthetic, are positive in high-dose rodent cancer tests. These results are unlikely to be relevant at the low doses of human exposure. (b) Even Rachel Carson was made of chemicals: natural vs. synthetic chemicals. Human exposure to naturally occurring rodent carcinogens is ubiquitous, and dwarfs the general public's exposure to synthetic rodent carcinogens. (c) Errors of omission: micronutrient inadequacy is genotoxic. The major causes of cancer (other than smoking) do not involve exogenous carcinogenic chemicals: dietary imbalances, hormonal factors, infection and inflammation, and genetic factors. Insufficiency of many micronutrients, which appears to mimic radiation, is a preventable source of DNA damage. (d) Damage by distraction: regulating low hypothetical risks. Putting huge amounts of money into minuscule hypothetical risks damages public health by diverting resources and distracting the public from major risks.

Supplement to the Carcinogenic Potency Database (CPDB): results of animal bioassays published in the general literature in 1993 to 1994 and by the National Toxicology Program in 1995 to 1996

The Carcinogenic Potency Database (CPDB) is a systematic and unifying analysis of results of chronic, long-term cancer tests. This paper presents a supplemental plot of the CPDB, including 513 experiments on 157 test compounds published in the general literature in 1993 and 1994 and in Technical Reports of the National Toxicology Program in 1995 and 1996. The plot standardizes the experimental results (whether positive or negative for carcinogenicity), including qualitative data on strain, sex, route of compound administration, target organ, histopathology, and author's opinion and reference to the published paper, as well as quantitative data on carcinogenic potency, statistical significance, tumor incidence, dose-response curve shape, length of experiment, duration of dosing, and dose rate. A numerical description of carcinogenic potency, the TD(subscript)50(/subscript), is estimated for each set of tumor incidence data reported. When added to the data published earlier, the CPDB now includes results of 5,620 experiments on 1,372 chemicals that have been reported in 1,250 published papers and 414 National Cancer Institute/National Toxicology Program Technical Reports. The plot presented here includes detailed analyses of 25 chemicals tested in monkeys for up to 32 years by the National Cancer Institute. Half the rodent carcinogens that were tested in monkeys were not carcinogenic, despite usually strong evidence of carcinogenicity in rodents and/or humans. Our analysis of possible explanatory factors indicates that this result is due in part to the fact that the monkey studies lacked power to detect an effect compared to standard rodent bioassays. Factors that contributed to the lack of power are the small number of animals on test; a stop-exposure protocol for model rodent carcinogens; in a few cases, toxic doses that resulted in stoppage of dosing or termination of the experiment; and in a few cases, low doses administered to monkeys or early termination of the experiment even though the doses were not toxic. Among chemicals carcinogenic in both monkeys and rodents, there is some support for target site concordance, but it is primarily restricted to liver tumors. Potency values are highly correlated between rodents and monkeys. The plot in this paper can be used in conjunction with the earlier results published in the CRC Handbook of Carcinogenic Potency and Genotoxicity Databases [Gold LS, Zeiger E, eds. Boca Raton FL:CRC Press, 1997] and with our web site (http://potency.berkeley.edu), which includes a guide to the plot of the database, a complete description of the numerical index of carcinogenic potency (TD50), and a discussion of the sources of data, the rationale for the inclusion of particular experiments and particular target sites, and the conventions adopted in summarizing the literature. Two summary tables permit easy access to the literature of animal cancer tests by target organ and by chemical. For readers using the CPDB extensively, a combined plot on diskette or other format is available from the first author. It includes all results published earlier and in this paper, ordered alphabetically by chemical. A SAS database is also available.

The causes and prevention of cancer: the role of environment

The idea that synthetic chemicals such as DDT are major contributors to human cancer has been inspired, in part, by Rachel Carson's passionate book, Silent Spring. This chapter discusses evidence showing why this is not true. We also review research on the causes of cancer, and show why much cancer is preventable. Epidemiological evidence indicates several factors likely to have a major effect on reducing rates of cancer: reduction of smoking, increased consumption of fruits and vegetables, and control of infections. Other factors are avoidance of intense sun exposure, increases in physical activity, and reduction of alcohol consumption and possibly red meat. Already, risks of many forms of cancer can be reduced and the potential for further reductions is great. If lung cancer (which is primarily due to smoking) is excluded, cancer death rates are decreasing in the United States for all other cancers combined. Pollution appears to account for less than 1% of human cancer; yet public concern and resource allocation for chemical pollution are very high, in good part because of the use of animal cancer tests in cancer risk assessment. Animal cancer tests, which are done at the maximum tolerated dose (MTD), are being misinterpreted to mean that low doses of synthetic chemicals and industrial pollutants are relevant to human cancer. About half of the chemicals tested, whether synthetic or natural, are carcinogenic to rodents at these high doses. A plausible explanation for the high frequency of positive results is that testing at the MTD frequently can cause chronic cell killing and consequent cell replacement, a risk factor for cancer that can be limited to high doses. Ignoring this greatly exaggerates risks. Scientists must determine mechanisms of carcinogenesis for each substance and revise acceptable dose levels as understanding advances. The vast bulk of chemicals ingested by humans is natural. For example, 99.99% of the pesticides we eat are naturally present in plants to ward off insects and other predators. Half of these natural pesticides tested at the MTD are rodent carcinogens. Reducing exposure to the 0.01% that are synthetic will not reduce cancer rates. On the contrary, although fruits and vegetables contain a wide variety of naturally-occurring chemicals that are rodent carcinogens, inadequate consumption of fruits and vegetables doubles the human cancer risk for most types of cancer. Making them more expensive by reducing synthetic pesticide use will increase cancer. Humans also ingest large numbers of natural chemicals from cooking food. Over a thousand chemicals have been reported in roasted coffee: more than half of those tested (19/28) are rodent carcinogens. There are more rodent carcinogens in a single cup of coffee than potentially carcinogenic pesticide residues in the average American diet in a year, and there are still a thousand chemicals left to test in roasted coffee. This does not mean that coffee is dangerous but rather that animal cancer tests and worst-case risk assessment, build in enormous safety factors and should not be considered true risks. The reason humans can eat the tremendous variety of natural chemical "rodent carcinogens" is that humans, like other animals, are extremely well protected by many general defense enzymes, most of which are inducible (i.e., whenever a defense enzyme is in use, more of it is made). Since the defense enzymes are equally effective against natural and synthetic chemicals one does not expect, nor does one find, a general difference between synthetic and natural chemicals in ability to cause cancer in high-dose rodent tests. The idea that there is an epidemic of human cancer caused by synthetic industrial chemicals is false. In addition, there is a steady rise in life expectancy in the developed countries. Linear extrapolation from the maximum tolerated dose in rodents to low level exposure in humans has led to grossly exaggerated mortality forecasts. Such extrapo